Showing posts with label New York Mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Mets. Show all posts

Monday, July 21, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets found themselves in a similar position to the Yankees in that they had their first pick moved back ten spots due to salary overages then lost their second round pick after signing Juan Soto. While the Yankees elected to splurge a little on their first pick then play the rest of the draft conservatively, the Mets went in the opposite direction. They immediately saved over a million dollars in bonus pool space with their first two picks, both bats, then spread those savings around into several over slot deals on young pitchers they found interesting. I'm personally intrigued by their work here and I think this could become a sneaky good class when all is said and done despite severe bonus pool limitations.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-38: 2B Mitch Voit, Michigan
Slot value: $2.57 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($819,400 below slot value).
My rank: #67. MLB Pipeline: #63. Baseball America: #149.
It's not the loudest pick the Mets could make to start of the draft, but Mitch Voit does a lot of things well with a quietly complete profile and more upside than you might expect. A two-way player during his first two seasons in Ann Arbor, he pitched nearly one hundred innings with a 4.67 ERA while also seeing significant time at first base, second base, third base, and the outfield. Focusing on hitting only in 2025, the decision paid off as he put up a career year at the plate with 14 home runs and a .346/.471/.668 slash line in 56 games. A disciplined hitter, he walked (15.3%) more than he struck out (13.0%) in 2025 while showing average bat to ball skills, helping him project as a potential above average hitter at the next level. His tight right handed swing helps him shoot the ball to all fields with authority, and while he's not the biggest guy on the field at an even six feet tall, he shows average power that he taps in games. As a potential .270 hitter with high on-base percentages and 15-20 home run upside, it's a really well-rounded offensive profile. He's also a plus runner and a strong athlete, adding to his upside. Voit hasn't settled into one primary position just yet, though the Mets drafted him as a second baseman and he has the actions and speed to be at least average there. Having reached 92 on the mound, he also has plenty of arm to slide over to third base if needed. Lastly, the Milwaukee-area product is extremely young for the class, not turning 21 until the end of the season, and could continue to see his broad toolset tick upwards. Honestly, I feel that I under-ranked him a bit and that he should have been closer to the top fifty on my board. Voit did make headlines back in March for pretending to do a line of cocaine off the third base line as a celebration for hitting a triple, which is extremely funny but also understandably problematic. His $1.75 million bonus is more than $800,000 below slot value and saved the Mets a ton of money to go after other expensive prospects later in the draft, which was especially helpful given their lack of a second round pick.

3-102: SS Antonio Jimenez, Central Florida
Slot value: $752,000. Signing bonus: $564,000 ($188,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #172. Baseball America: #406.
This is a really interesting pick, with the Mets picking up a talent that probably fits better here at his draft position than he did back where most public boards had him ranked. Antonio Jimenez began his career at Miami, then spent the summer in the Cape Cod League hitting a nondescript .203/.322/.383 with a 25% strikeout rate. He transferred to UCF for his sophomore season and exploded as Drew Faurot's replacement at shortstop, rocketing up draft boards. There is a ton of talent here. Listed at 6'1", Jimenez shows sneaky plus raw power that shows up more in scorching line drives than regular home run power, but he did knock five on the Cape and eleven in Orlando and figures to produce upwards of twenty or more annually at the big league level if he can get his swing right. The power plays better to his pull side, but the ball jumps off his bat. He can get a bit aggressive at the plate, but he mashes inside the strike zone with above average pure bat to ball ability. If Jimenez can stay within himself at the plate, swing at good pitches, and trust his power, he has the ingredients to be a real offensive contributor in Flushing. The Miami-area native also brings value on the defensive side of the ball. His athleticism and body control help him make all the plays at shortstop, while his plus-plus arm strength helps him throw out runners on all kinds of plays in the hole or on the run. It remains to be seen whether he'll be steady enough with the glove to stick at shortstop long term, but the fallback is as an above average defensive third baseman with a cannon arm. Jimenez did not get enough love before the draft, including from myself as I did not get around to researching him, and makes for a sneaky good pick here in the back of the third round for the Mets. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he'll be relatively young coming in and only turned 21 in June.

4-133: RHP Peter Kussow, Arrowhead Union HS [WI]
Slot value: $555,800. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($341,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #201. Baseball America: unranked.
After saving over a million dollars on their first two picks, the Mets began to unload those savings here by giving Peter Kussow close to the slot value of the #88 pick here at #133, steering him away from a Louisville commitment. You'll be hard pressed to find many prep pitchers with a better combination of size, projection, and physicality in this class. Kussow is listed at 6'5", 205 pounds, already looking the part of a big league arm with room to fill out even further. He presently sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with a running, riding fastball that could be a plus pitch as he continues to add velocity. His slider has diced up prep hitters in bunches this spring. It can be inconsistent and probably grades out at above average because of that, but he can rip through some nasty ones that dive late at the plate and give him plus projections. He mainly pitches off those two pitches, but there is a changeup in there as well. Kussow has a long arm swing and his command comes and goes, so the Mets will look to streamline his delivery a little bit and get him more consistent with everything, both from a stuff and command perspective. There is a chance he ends up a fastball/slider reliever, but the Mets see the upside of a potential mid-rotation starter here.

7-223: RHP Cam Tilly, Auburn
Slot value: $254,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($143,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #229.
The Mets went a bit over slot value to bring in Cam Tilly, an extremely talented arm who is yet to put it together at Auburn. Tilly was a well-known prep prospect that ranked #168 on my board in 2023, but made it to campus for the Tigers. He spent his first season and a half in college as a reliever, then earned six starts at the end of the 2025 season to middling results. The fastball sits low 90's and has reached as high as 97 in short stints, a solid pitch that won't jump off the page but gets the job done. He stands out most for his slider, a banger breaking ball with late two-plane break diving away from right handed hitters. Tilly can also work it into a curveball to give hitters a different look, while his splitter gives him another potential average or better pitch when he rips it right. The Evansville, Indiana-area product has a relatively simple delivery with nice extension down the mound, but strikes have been an issue as he works to get more consistently on line to the plate. Plenty physical, the 6'2" righty looks the part of a durable starting pitcher if he can tie things together. The four pitch arsenal goes a long way towards aiding in that projection, but he'll have to tie his command together better in order to get there.

8-253: RHP Camden Lohman, Ft. Zumwalt North HS [MO]
Slot value: $213,200. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($584,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #220. Baseball America: #490.
Taking much of the rest of their savings from Mitch Voit and Antonio Jimenez, New York spent over half a million above slot value to pry Camden Lohman away from an in-state Missouri commitment with a bonus about the slot value of the #96 pick. Like Peter Kussow, Lohman is a big, physical right hander from the Midwest. The 6'4" righty saw a velocity spike this spring, adding about three to four miles per hour to his fastball and reaching 97 in bullpen sessions, regularly touching 95 in starts and sitting low 90's. He adds a pair of solid breaking balls in a short slider and a more traditional curveball, while his changeup has come along this spring. With a simple, repeatable, over the top delivery, he shows good command for a high schooler. Lohman doesn't necessarily stand out in any individual way besides perhaps his height, but his combination of increased velocity, a deep arsenal, big league size, and a sound delivery makes him a higher probability starting pitcher than most prep arms. The Mets will look to continue to bring out sharper stuff as he matures.

9-283: SS Anthony Frobose, Lakeland HS [NY]
Slot value: $196,800. Signing bonus: $390,000 ($193,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Yankees went local in the ninth round, Yorktown Heights native Anthony Frobose out of Lakeland High School in extreme northern Westchester County, just under forty miles straight north of Flushing. This over slot signing was a bit more modest as a ninth rounder going for early sixth round money instead of heading to Rutgers. Frobose is more of an upside play than anything else. A two-way player, he's been up to 94 on the mound with a deep slider, but the Mets drafted him as a shortstop and it appears they'll keep him that way. He creates great leverage with an explosive, powerful right handed swing, giving him a shot at above average power in the future despite a slight 6'1", 170 pound frame. He was standing a bit more upright this spring and drifted into more deliberate load, something the Mets may want to smooth out. There is more conviction in the power than the hit tool for now, though New York believe he has what it takes to step up against pro pitching as he smooths out that right handed swing. Frobose's athleticism also shows at shortstop, where he has a plus arm and good body control to channel his arm strength on line towards first base. Having turned 18 shortly after the draft, he is on the younger side for the class and the Mets will likely move him more slowly than other prospects. There is considerable upside here for under $400K, but he is also pretty far away from that ceiling.

12-373: RHP Truman Pauley, Harvard
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($250,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #435.
The largest bonus of the back half of the Mets' draft, Truman Pauley got early sixth round money to sign here in the twelfth round and cost a quarter of a million dollars against their bonus pool. Pauley is an interesting prospect. A native of Pacific Palisades in Southern California with an interest in model rocketry according to his player page, he travelled across the country to follow his grandfather and great grandfather to Harvard. A full year older than most of his graduating class, he reached Cambridge the age of a college sophomore and was therefore eligible and age appropriate after two years with the Crimson. His 2025 got off to a rough start with a 7.11 ERA and an 18.8% walk rate through his first seven outings, but he turned it around in a big way with a 2.56 ERA and a 53/21 strikeout to walk ratio (12.3% walk rate) over 38.2 innings to close out the season, including a thirteen strikeout complete game against Columbia in his final outing. Pauley gets it done with a huge fastball that sits in the low 90's and touches 96, but plays way above its velocity due to elite riding life. That pitch alone makes him a very interesting player development project for the Mets. Beyond that, he has a solid downer slider that misses bats as well as a curveball and changeup, though he primarily pitches off the first two. For now, the command is way behind everything else and will be the primary factor holding him back. The Mets will need to streamline his delivery and get him more comfortable at his newfound high velocity band, and from there he could develop in any number of directions. New York undoubtedly loves the trajectory he's on with the strong finish to the season, and while his post-season Cape Cod League numbers didn't pop off the page, he did run a respectable 9.7% walk rate in the smaller 15.1 inning sample.

16-493: RHP Zack Mack, Loyola Marymount
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Hands down the best name in this Mets draft class, Zack Mack gives the Mets some sneaky upside near the back of the draft. A Houston-area native, he began his career at local powerhouse San Jacinto JC (Zack Mack at San Jac, say that five times fast) but missed his freshman season with Tommy John surgery. Over the next two seasons, he pitched his way into more attention, ultimately transferring west out to Loyola Marymount in Southern California. The result was a solid season for the Lions highlighted by a ten strikeout, no walk performance against San Francisco in April. Mack sits low 90's and touches 96 with a riding fastball, playing well at the top of the zone. He can drop in a big 12-6 curveball or tighten it up into a short, tight gyro slider, and both miss bats. There is also a splitter in there. The 6'5", 240 pound righty comes with plenty of size and while he was mostly a reliever at LMU, his size and arsenal point to a potential future in the rotation. The command was streaky but at one point he walked just one batter in a span of ten appearances (19.2 innings). A senior sign, Mack will turn 23 in October but could be an interesting piece going forward.

Saturday, August 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets pulled together a really interesting class filled with diverse skill sets that will be interesting to track in pro ball. It's headlined by Carson Benge, a do-it-all two-way guy who looks like he'll be a hitter only, and includes some live arms, data sleepers, and guys with interesting back stories. Now in the modern bonus pool era, teams almost universally sign every pick in the top ten rounds, but it appears the Mets are the one team to struggle with it. After failing to sign first rounder Kumar Rocker in 2021, they did the same with 2022 third rounder Brandon Sproat (then drafted and signed him a year later) and couldn't come to terms with ninth rounder Jaxon Jelkin this year.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $4.22 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($221,700 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #15.
The Mets started off their draft with a fun one, one which reminds me just a bit of Mets 2023 third rounder and fellow OSU Cowboy Nolan McLean. Benge, a first rounder, has a much more polished, well-rounded profile and lacks McLean's other-worldly power, but aligns as a rangy, athletic two-way player with tremendous physical talent beyond just the baseball ability. McLean is now a pitcher, while it looks like Benge is going to hit. Tommy John surgery stole his freshman season in 2022, but he has been as central a piece as you can have for Oklahoma State over the past two seasons. He does a bit of it all. Benge has long levers in his 6'1" frame that he consistently gets extended, driving hard line drives around the field with plenty of regularity. While he prefers that all-fields approach, he's plenty strong with above average power that he is tapping more and more in games. With a patient approach and strong bat to ball, he controls the strike zone and walks at a high rate, and his overall skill set will be conducive to tapping more and more power as he develops. Some scouts question his unorthodox swing mechanics, which start with an open stance, continue into a leg kick/double foot tap hybrid coinciding with a barrel tip/hitch in his hands, and finish with significant head whack in his swing. Still, despite all the moving parts, he gets that barrel where it needs to be better than most hitters in this draft, speaking volumes to his innate hand-eye coordination. An average runner, he plays a very solid right field with his plus right arm that also serves him on the mound, where he is up to 96 with a deep slider and improving command. The Oklahoma City-area product is a great athlete that moves very well on both sides of the ball, further lending to the projection in his profile. With his athleticism, strength, barrel accuracy, patience, and projection, he could become one of the most well-rounded hitters in this class when all is said and done, with the chance to hit 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. He hasn't quite hit his stride yet, hitting .176/.391/.176 with eight strikeouts to five walks through five games at Low A St. Lucie.

2-46: LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke {video}
Slot value: $2.03 million. Signing bonus: $2.03 million.
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #32.
Jonathan Santucci has been on a bit of an interesting ride and he comes with more upside than the typical second round college arm. After establishing himself with a very strong freshman season in 2022, elbow problems cut his strong start to the 2023 season short. Santucci got off to a hot start again in 2024, putting up seventeen straight scoreless innings against Indiana, Northwestern, and Akron right out of the gate (including fourteen strikeouts in six innings against Akron), and found himself in the middle of the first round conversation to the point where he may not have even been available to the Mets at #19. Unfortunately, command woes derailed his season from there somewhat, but righted the ship somewhat at the end and kept himself within the top fifty picks. Santucci has almost all of the ingredients you look for in an impact starting pitcher. The 6'2" lefty is durably and athletically built with a pretty ideal frame to throw 180+ innings a year in the bigs, with a fairly clean delivery that should be pretty repeatable with pro instruction. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and gets up to 96-97 at peak, coming in with above average riding life to make it play up another tick with close to a 30% whiff rate. He gets late, deep bite on his plus slider that gets excellent results, especially when he commands it. He doesn't use his changeup as much, but it too looks like a potential weapon against righties with great fade to the arm side. It's a true big league three pitch mix from the left side, something you rarely find from a starting pitcher mold in the second round. While the Massachusetts native has held together his command at times, it escaped him more often than not in 2024 as he struggled to repeat his release point and execute his spots. The stuff was still enough to overwhelm ACC hitters and his 35% strikeout rate was among the better marks you'll see, though the 14% walk rate showed the other side of that. If the Mets can help him gain just enough feel for his delivery to live in the zone, the stuff will take care of the rest and he could be a #2 or #3 starter. If not, he could end up a frustrating back-end starter that pops for some gems or a three pitch reliever.

3-82: RHP Nate Dohm, Mississippi State {video}
Slot value: $934,800. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($137,300 below slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #150.
I found Nate Dohm to be an interesting sleeper this year and I had him ranked about a round ahead of most other outlets. It seems the Mets agreed, and they drafted him about a round earlier than I had him ranked, paying him roughly the slot value for pick #92 here at pick #82. Despite coming from a big SEC program, he took a fairly circuitous route to where he is now. An Indianapolis-area native, he began his career at Ball State and transferred to Mississippi State after a solid freshman season. He was off to an excellent start as a starter in 2024 when forearm problems shut him down in March, and after making one short appearance in April, he returned for three relief appearances in May. Health is certainly a question mark, but the stuff isn't. Dohm's fastball can sit in the low to mid 90's and touch 99 in short stints (though a few ticks below that in longer outings), coming in with big riding action from a great release point. It's a true plus pitch, and it looks plus-plus in short bursts. He shows a pair of above average breaking balls and can execute them better than most amateur pitchers. The changeup is interesting, as he typically lacks feel for it and doesn't use it too much, but every once in a while he grips it right and can show a plus one. On top of everything, Dohm is an impressive mover on the mound that gets nice extension and a low release point to make everything play up a little more out of his hand. The 6'4" righty also shows above average command and walked just four batters in 29.1 innings in 2024, giving him almost all of the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. At this point, the only issue is durability, as in addition to the missed time in 2024, he has made just eleven starts over three years in college and he has never thrown more than 41 innings in a season. Some scouts are also turned off by his delivery, which includes a late arm and late jerk down the mound. The Mets are banking on the excellent combination of size, stuff, command, and release point, and are hoping that they can iron out the delivery a little bit to keep him on the mound consistently. That durability will be the difference in whether he ends up a starter or a reliever.

4-111: OF Eli Serrano III, North Carolina State {video}
Slot value: $656,400. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($41,100 above slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #205.
Eli Serrano is an interesting one, and like Dohm, both the Mets and I like him better than the big publications. He jumped onto the scene with a nice freshman season at NC State (.292/.389/.470, 7 HR), then failed to take a step forward with almost the exact same numbers as a sophomore in 2024 (.286/.383/.433, 9 HR). However, while those numbers look underwhelming in a year of high offense around the league, the underlying metrics are very impressive. Serrano shows sneaky average raw power, and with his height (6'5") and projection he could grow into above average power pretty easily. At this point, he's more of a line drive hitter so that power doesn't really manifest itself in games, but he has the hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel to elevate more with pro instruction. He's also an excellent contact hitter who quietly ran one of the higher contact rates in this draft class, and in fact was one of just five players on the Baseball America 500 (out of 145 college hitters) to turn in a contact rate above 85% and a 90th percentile exit velocity above 105 MPH. The high contact rates mean that he puts the ball in play as often as anybody, and was one of just four college hitters on my draft board (out of 73) to keep both his strikeout rate and his walk rate below 10% apiece. For the most part, the Mets are buying the bat here with his potential to hit 15-20 home runs per season with high batting averages. The glove is more ordinary, as Serrano shows average defensive tools across the board. His most likely destination is left field, where his lack of speed and arm strength can be hidden a little more, especially if he slows down further with age. So far, he's hitting .185/.241/.333 with one home run and a 5/2 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games for Low A St. Lucie.

5-144: SS Trey Snyder, Liberty North HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $476,200. Signing bonus: $1.32 million ($846,300 above slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #155. Baseball America: #142.
The Mets' largest over slot bonus by far went to Trey Snyder, who has a chance to be the team's shortstop of the future if everything breaks right. Initially committed to Tennessee, it took roughly the slot value for the #64 pick to lure him to New York instead. Snyder is more about polish over tools, so the development plan should be more straightforward than not. Though he's not ultra projectable, he has a quick right handed swing with natural loft that should help him maximize his fringy raw power in games. He already has a long track record of hitting against strong competition, supported by a disciplined approach at the plate and good feel for the barrel. The upside here is probably 10-20 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which will be plenty at shortstop. Snyder shows great body control at shortstop to make all the plays that come to him, with quick feet to make adjustments and enough arm to make it work on the left side of the infield. He's more of an average runner and the arm is more good than great, so there is a chance he gets pushed to second or third base by a more explosive defender. There's no question that the Kansas City-area product can flat out play ball, so his ability to impact the baseball and maintain his athleticism will determine his ultimate impact at the big league level.

6-173: 1B Corey Collins, Georgia {video}
Slot value: $363,100. Signing bonus: $275,000 ($88,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #182.
You can't research every player, so every year there has to be a cutoff and Corey Collins was one of those who just missed it for me in 2024. He represents one of the better senior signs in the country, giving the Mets close to a $100K haircut here in the sixth round while still bringing big league upside. A well-known prep catcher out of the Atlanta area in 2020, he ranked #122 on my draft board that year but wound up staying home to attend Georgia. He was more good than great as a hitter and ultimately failed to draw the same level of interest he had in high school, but broke out for a massive senior season in 2024 in which he slashed .354/.574/.772 with 20 home runs while batting in front of 2024 Golden Spikes Award winner and third overall pick Charlie Condon. Big and burly at a list 6'3", 235 pounds, he deploys his natural strength into true plus raw power that he tapped consistently in games in 2024. It's a really short, direct left handed swing that helped him simplify things at the plate and focus on jacking baseballs out over the right field wall. That approach continued to work for him against high level pitching in SEC play, where he hit .350/.538/.780 with 13 home runs in 29 games. In addition to the prodigious power, Collins has a discerning eye at the plate that helps him identify which pitches he can turn on while laying off the ones he can't. The approach is ahead of the pure bat to ball here, so it will be a challenge in the upper level's of pro ball against advanced pitchers who can execute quality pitches on the corners. While he has seen time behind the plate, his lack of agility has always made that a stretch and it's appeared less and less likely he would play there in pro ball. The fact that the Mets drafted him as a first baseman is a pretty big indication that they don't see a future at catcher, either. In that sense, he'll have to hit, and that seems likely. He has the upside of a 20+ home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, which would certainly play in a platoon role. Beyond walking a lot, he also finished fourth in NCAA Division I with 28 hit by pitches and led the SEC by a massive margin – no other hitter in the conference was hit by more than 20. Together with the walks, he reached base without swinging the bat in 34.7% of his plate appearances this past season. Age is a downside, as he'll be 23 in October. He's played one game so far, walking and ironically stealing a base for Low A St. Lucie despite not having stolen a base at Georgia since 2021.

10-293: RHP Brendan Girton, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $184,300. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($61,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Brendan Girton represents another senior sign and gives the Mets a potential power reliever. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in far northwestern Oklahoma, he spent three seasons at Texas Tech pitching to mixed results. He transferred to Oklahoma to pitch his senior season back in his home state, but after a very strong season opening start against Tennessee (4 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), he struggled with consistency and finished with an ERA over seven and nearly a walk per inning. Girton is a power pitcher, with a fastball sitting in the mid 90's and touching 98 in short stints. Beyond the velocity, the pitch plays up further with running and riding life from a low slot and nice extension. It's really one of the better fastballs you'll find this late in the draft. His power slider shows nice late bite and dives below bats when he's going good, but he's inconsistent with it and doesn't always execute it. Above all, the 6'1" righty has below average command that has made both of his pitches play down, and that right there will be the key to pro success. Girton lacks starter upside due to that command and his lack of a changeup, though he is sturdily built and should be durable enough to thrive in a full time relief role. If he gets the command together a little, he could move quickly.

11-323: 2B Nick Roselli, Binghamton {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Mets opened up day three with a hometown pick. Nick Roselli hails from Levittown on Long Island, where he attended Division Avenue High School and hit .619 as a senior. He spent three years at Binghamton, where he hit from day one and got better each year despite breaking his hamate bone on Opening Day 2024 and missing nearly two months. Undersized at 5'10", he uses a quick left handed swing to drive the ball with much more authority than you'd expect from a smaller guy. He's shown the ability to turn on the ball to the pull side while spraying hard line drives to all fields, though that power has not shown up with wood bats and he has slugged just .293 with two home runs in 64 games over his three seasons in summer wood bat leagues. He hasn't faced the strongest competition in the America East Conference, where he has shown very strong plate discipline and bat to ball, though that approach has carried over to his wood bat leagues. With average speed and a general lack of explosiveness, both his range and arm are best suited for second base in the long run, where he has strong feel for the position and should be an average defender. It would appear as a utility infield profile with the potential to show average offensive numbers across the board at peak, though being limited to second base and left field makes that a little tougher. Regardless, the Mets will love having Nick Roselli from Levittown in the lineup if he can push his way up there. He has shown pretty well so far, hitting .278/.409/.389 with a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games at Low A St. Lucie.

14-413: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($72,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Tanner Witt has been a known commodity not just to Texas scouts but to scouting directors for a long time now. A highly regarded two-way prep out of his Houston high school, Witt ranked #88 on my 2020 draft board and had draft interest as high as the first round, but was dead set on heading to Austin to play for the Longhorns. After a strong freshman season in 2021 and two strong starts to begin 2022, he seemed to be solidifying himself as a likely first round pick for the 2023 draft. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of that sophomore season, then did not look like himself in six abbreviated starts at the end of 2023. Still, he ranked #93 on my board that year and ranked as the top unsigned draft prospect returning to school in 2024. Unfortunately, health problems persisted into 2024 and he lasted just five short appearances before being shut down again. He's allegedly healthy now, having posted this video shortly before the draft (on his 22nd birthday no less), so the Mets will look to get him back to where he was from 2020-2022. So what was all the first round hype about? Witt's fastball sits in the low 90's, having touched 97 in the past, with huge riding action from a very high, over the top sot that counteracts the movement a little. His signature pitch is a big 12-6 curveball with tremendous depth, though it breaks so much that he doesn't always execute it where he wants it. There's a solid slider in there that he unveiled while at Texas, and his above average changeup rounds out a pretty complete arsenal. Witt has really filled out his 6'6" frame and now fully looks the part of a big league starting pitcher, with an easy, repeatable delivery that he shows great feel for. Previously, he showed an interesting double tap in his hand break in which he showed the ball to hitters before tapping it back into the glove, but watching the video linked a few sentences back it appears he has eliminated that. It also looks like he has dropped his arm slot a bit, so the extremely high release point may be no more. Witt's father, Kevin, played five sporadic seasons in the big leagues between 1998 and 2006 and the baseball IQ has clearly been passed onto Tanner, who has displayed an advanced understanding for pitching and a drive to improve. He was still figuring out how to command the baseball at the collegiate level when his injury woes started (remember, he was only fully healthy as an 18 year old freshman), and while all signs pointed to him figuring that out, it's now going to be a question mark. Durability is of course another major question mark as he has thrown just 31 innings over the past three seasons and hasn't really looked like himself since February 2022, but "himself" is a potential #2-#3 starter who could reach the majors in a hurry. The Mets have a really interesting development project in front of them and although he was a senior sign, he was young for the class and only turned 22 shortly before the draft.

Saturday, July 15, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

Steve Cohen's massive spending spree pushed the Mets' first pick back to #32, but they still landed a consensus first round talent in Colin Houck for a surprisingly reasonable signing bonus. They did get two extra picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, and they also got an extra third round pick for failing to sign Brandon Sproat last year (who they ironically drafted again this year). The two major themes of this packed draft class were college pitchers and high school shortstops, with each of the Mets' first eleven picks falling into those categories. Behind Houck, New York also drafted A.J. Ewing and Boston Baro, the three of whom combined to sign for over $800,000 above their respective slot values. I'm a big fan of the Houck pick, personally, and I think that pick makes the Mets' draft.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-32: SS Colin Houck, Parkview HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: $2.61 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($142,500 above slot value).
My rank: #13. MLB Pipeline: #12. Baseball America: #21. Prospects Live: #18.
Arguably the best prep shortstop in the country, Colin Houck somehow made it to the Mets at pick #32 despite buzz he could go as high as the top ten. Perhaps even more surprisingly, he only signed for slightly above slot value, with his $2.75 million bonus sitting between the values of the 29th and 30th picks. This all amounts to a huge coup for the Mets, as Houck is as talented as they come. The Atlanta-area product is an excellent athlete who had Division I football offers as a quarterback, and that athleticism translates seamlessly to the diamond. He's a well-rounded hitter with more polish at the plate than you'd expect from a two-sport star, showing the ability to recognize offspeed stuff and work counts effectively. Utilizing a clean, powerful right handed swing, he shows off above average power in games, especially this spring where he teed off against strong Atlanta-area competition. Some swing and miss can occasionally creep into his game when he gets too big and tries to yank balls to the moon, though he usually does a good job of staying within himself and he's a very impactful hitter when he does. Defensively, Houck shows off the plus arm that served him well on the football field, and his athleticism helps him make all the plays at shortstop. He's more of an average runner than a plus one, so there is the potential that he gets forced to third base by a better defender, but the Mets will give him every shot to stick at shortstop and it's very possible that renewed focus on baseball alone could help him pull his defensive game together fully. Houck had been committed to Mississippi State before the Mets brought him on.

2-56: RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida {video}
Slot value: $1.47 million. Signing bonus: $1.47 million.
My rank: #88. MLB Pipeline: #54. Baseball America: #48. Prospects Live: #48.
A year ago, the Mets drafted Brandon Sproat in the third round at 90th overall, but couldn't come to terms with him and he was the second highest pick to go unsigned, behind fellow Mets 2023 draftee Nolan McLean. This time, they got the deal done at slot value and they'll get an older, wiser, more developed version of Sproat. One of the major concerns that held his stock back was a low 21.5% strikeout rate in 2022, but he bumped that up to 28.8% in 2023 while holding down a 4.66 ERA across over one hundred innings. He's all about the arm strength, sitting in the mid 90's deep into his starts and touching as high as 101 in short bursts. The fastball can get straight, often playing below its impressive velocity, but he does have a full arsenal of secondaries to keep hitters off balance. The Pensacola-area native shows solid feel to spin the ball, with his slider likely ahead of his curveball and a cutter to go with them, though he really stands out for an above average changeup that plays very well off his fastball. Sproat is more control over command and his walk rate ticked up to 10.3% in 2023 from 8.6% a year ago. The 6'3" righty also has some effort and moving parts in his delivery, including a double leg break as he extends towards the plate, that might point to a future in the bullpen, but he has so much present arm strength that he still maintains his stuff over longer outings. In drafting him this early despite turning 23 in September, the Mets are buying in on Sproat as a starting pitcher and hoping they can find a way to add some bat-missing qualities to his fastball. Given his age, he'll want to move fairly quickly.

3-91: RHP/OF Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $747,600. Signing bonus: $747,600.
My rank: #184. MLB Pipeline: #97. Baseball America: #184. Prospects Live: #289.
Ironically, the only player drafted higher than Brandon Sproat last year to go unsigned was Nolan McLean, the Orioles' third round pick at #81 overall. Even more ironically, this pick is actually compensation for failing to sign Sproat last year. McLean is very well known to scouts, having been an early round draft prospect out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2020 before being draft eligible as a sophomore in 2022 and again as a junior in 2023. A year ago, it was seen as a tossup whether he'd be a hitter or a pitcher in pro ball, maybe leaning pitcher, and though the Mets drafted him as a two-way player, his future likely lies on the mound. After mostly working one inning at a time in 2022, he earned a longer leash and often went three to four innings in his outings in 2023. There is plenty of arm strength here, as he can sit in the mid 90's in short stints while topping out around 98, with nice running life to boot. He has steadily improved his feel for spin and his slider now flashes plus, while his curveball and changeup are usable pitches as well. Like Sproat, McLean is more control over command but has looked more polished as he's gotten more innings under his belt. A tremendous athlete, the 6'4" righty originally committed to Oklahoma State as a quarterback as well, so he has projection remaining and moves well on the mound. Most of the signs point to him being a reliever in the long run, but if the Mets are taking him in the third round and have him give up hitting, they may have hopes of trying to stretch him out. The Mets did draft him as a two-way player, and there is certainly talent on that side of the ball as well. He has massive raw power, as evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field home run last year, and has clubbed 36 home runs over his three years in Stillwater. He's also a patient hitter, running low chase rates and walking at a very healthy 17.6% clip in 2023. However, McLean has a very grooved swing and struggles to make contact even on pitches over the plate, with his 107 strikeouts in 2022 setting a Division I record and his 37.3% strikeout rate in 2023 being equally as frightening. It's hard for me to see him tapping his power in pro ball with swing and miss issues like that. Defensively, Oklahoma State moved him to the outfield in 2023 to take pressure off his arm, but he is athletic enough to handle third base. I expect him to move to pitching full time sooner rather than later.

3-101: RHP Kade Morris, Nevada {video}
Slot value: $666,500. Signing bonus: $666,500.
My rank: #119. MLB Pipeline: #142. Baseball America: #166. Prospects Live: #123.
Kade Morris gives the Mets an interesting arm to play with. Earning a bigger and bigger role at Nevada every year, he served as the Wolfpack's Friday night starter this spring with solid results, posting a 5.42 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings despite playing in one of college baseball's most hitter-friendly environments. Morris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 97 at best, though the pitch has modest life and gets hit when he leaves it over the plate. He drops in an above average slider that functions as his main bat misser, while his deeper curveball looks like an average pitch and his changeup has made nice progress in Reno. He improved his strikeout rate from 18.5% as a sophomore to 22.5% as a junior, but it's still a lower number than you'd expect given his stuff and the Mets will want to find a way to help him continue that upward trend. The 6'3" righty still has projection remaining and is a very good athlete on the mound, giving New York a lot to work with to help him on his progression towards becoming a major league starting pitcher. He doesn't walk a lot of hitters and I think all the ingredients are there save for a lack of deception. The Central Valley native is also on the younger side for the class, nearly a year younger than Nolan McLean, signed for full slot value.

4-123: RHP Wyatt Hudepohl, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $536,500. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #299. Prospects Live: #216.
Wyatt Hudepohl pitched two seasons at Kentucky, then transferred to Charlotte this spring where he has stepped into a larger role. Making seventeen starts, he posted a 4.27 ERA and a 129/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings, including a seventeen strikeout complete game against Old Dominion and five more double digit strikeout games after that, including in the Clemson Regional against Lipscomb. The stuff here is pretty interesting – Hudepohl sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 95-96 at best with nice riding action, while adding a power curveball and a hard changeup with nice fade. He can also work the fastball into a cutter. The entire four pitch mix plays as at least average to above average, and when it's all working, he can be impossible to hit as you can see from the numbers above. The 6'4" righty has some effort in his delivery, getting deep into his back leg before pushing off towards the plate, but has shown the ability to maintain his stuff and control over long outings while leaning on his offspeed and should get a shot to crack it as a starter. He has a chance to be a solid #4.

4C-134: SS A.J. Ewing, Springboro HS [OH] {video}
Slot value: $483,000. Signing bonus: $675,000 ($192,000 above slot value).
My rank: #139. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #171. Prospects Live: #101.
A.J. Ewing was a favorite of many evaluators before the draft, and it looks like the Mets were big fans too. The second straight pick out of the Cincinnati area, Ewing showed very well on the showcase circuit and continued to perform back in Ohio, steadily climbing up boards. He's very skinny at a listed 6', 160 pounds, but stands out for springy athleticism on top of his track record of performance. Ewing can really whip the barrel through the zone for a kid his size and has shown nice pull side power with metal bats, and if he can tack on 15-20 pounds of muscle in pro ball, it should play with wood as well. He can handle quality offspeed stuff and moves well in the box in general, making him a very projectable hitter to dream on. In the field, his athleticism is apparent on the dirt and the Mets will send him out as a shortstop, though he needs to use a longer arm stroke to make throws on balls to his right and may fit better at second base, where he can more easily flick the ball to first base. This profile hinges on added physicality as he matures, which would help both in the power and defense departments. He's a little old for the class already. Previously committed to Alabama, he signed for nearly $200,000 above slot value.

4C-135: RHP Austin Troesser, Missouri {video}
Slot value: $478,200. Signing bonus: $350,000 ($128,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #143.
Austin Troesser didn't get much love on public boards (credit to Prospects Live for being in on him), and he wound up signing for early sixth round money here at the end of the fourth round. Troesser has been a valuable member of the Missouri bullpen the past two seasons, and in 2023 put up a 4.73 ERA and a 53/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings for the Tigers. He primarily stands out for a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to around 98 at best, playing up with riding life and helping him miss a high number of bats. The slider is a little more inconsistent at this point but has looked good at times, while he hasn't really needed much of a changeup in the bullpen. He'll stay in the bullpen going forward, where the Mets will look to help him continue adding velocity and find consistent feel for that slider. The 6'3" righty has thrown strikes in his career at Missouri and profiles as a medium leverage reliever.

5-159: LHP Zach Thornton, Grand Canyon {video}
Slot value: $378,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #165. Baseball America: #190. Prospects Live: #142.
Zach Thornton was on the annual shortlist of names I would have researched if I had a few more days before the draft. Every year you have to cut it off somewhere, and Thornton just missed. He put up a great season at Grand Canyon, posting a 3.87 ERA and a 91/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings, numbers which look even better when you consider college baseball's offense-friendly environment this year. The stuff isn't all that loud, with a fastball hovering around 90, touching 94, a pair of breaking balls that stand out more for their depth than their velocity, and a seldom-used changeup. Instead, the calling card is his pitchability, as the Kansas native mixes his pitches exceptionally well to keep hitters constantly off balance. He gets the kind of swings you see when position players pitch in MLB and mix 85 MPH fastballs with 38 MPH eephuses, which is also a testament to the deception in his delivery. To succeed in pro ball, the 6'3" lefty will have to add considerable strength to his lanky frame. If he can get his fastball more consistently into the low 90's and add some power to his breaking balls, he becomes a very interesting back-end starting pitching prospect. For now, he'll likely go torment low minors hitters used to seeing poorly located 96 instead of deceptive 89.

8-246: SS Boston Baro, Capistrano Valley HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $192,900. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($507,100 above slot value).
My rank: #181. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #98. Prospects Live: #127.
In their biggest over slot splurge of the draft, the Mets went and spent late third round money to sign eighth rounder Boston Baro away from a UCLA commitment, where he would have been competing for playing time with one of the top incoming shortstop recruits in the country in Roman Martin. Baro is an advanced prospect for a high schooler, taking impressively professional at bats and performing very well against strong Southern California pitching this spring. Very skinny at 6'2", there is very little impact power in the bat at this point from a line drive approach, though the Mets hope that he can get to fringy power in time as he fills out. Doing so would elevate the profile considerably. He's very light on his feet at shortstop and moves well to both sides, making all the plays consistently with enough arm strength to make it work. He figures to stay at shortstop initially, though in competing with Colin Houck and A.J. Ewing from this class alone, he may be forced to second base in the long term. Like Houck and Ewing, Baro is on the older side for the class and will be 19 before his first professional season is through.

9-276: 3B Nick Lorusso, Maryland {video}
Slot value: $175,100. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($125,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #292. Prospects Live: #194.
The Mets went with a bit of a hometown pick in Nick Lorusso, who grew up in Monroe in Fairfield County, Connecticut a little northeast of New York City. He began his college career at Villanova, where he had a solid but unremarkable three years. Since he transferred to Maryland in 2022, though, he's been a different hitter. After hitting five home runs in three years at Villanova, he broke out for fifteen in 2022, then in 2023 had one of the better offensive seasons in the country by slashing .379/.446/.765 with 26 home runs and a 46/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Lorusso is strongly built at 6'2" and effectively channels that strength into a powerful right handed swing, with impressive batted ball data that should continue to play with wood. Against moderately strong pitching in the Big Ten, he hammered all kinds of pitches and looked like an advanced hitter in the box, which should be expected given that he'll turn 23 in September. A third baseman at Maryland, he's just alright over there and may ultimately move to first base, where his bat should profile just fine. Lorusso will want to move quickly given his age but he did provide the Mets with $125,100 in savings.

12-366: RHP Brady Kirtner, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #428.
Brady Kirtner is a pure reliever profile, but an interesting one nonetheless to nab here in the twelfth round. A local kid from Christiansburg who stayed home to attend Virginia Tech just down the road, he didn't get into a game as a true freshman and had an uneven redshirt freshman season in 2022, but took a step forward in 2023 with a 4.62 ERA and a 36/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Kirtner sits in the mid 90's with his fastball in short stints, up to around 96 with nice riding action, while his slider flashes nice late bite at times and can generate ugly swings with high spin. Skinny at 5'11" and utilizing an uptempo delivery, he's unlikely to make the transition to the rotation especially considering his shallow arsenal and fringy command. But he's trending in the right direction and if the Mets can help him continue down that path, perhaps by adding a little more velocity and improving his command by smoothing out the delivery a little, he has a future as a fastball/slider reliever in Flushing.

13-396: RHP Ben Simon, Elon {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
There is not a ton of information out there on Ben Simon, but I wanted to highlight him quickly as another hometown pick. Simon grew up in East Windsor in Central Jersey and attended nearby Highstown High School along the Jersey Turnpike a little east of Trenton. After an up and down freshman season, he has been a valuable reliever at Elon the past two seasons with a combined 3.36 ERA and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. At 5'11", he's mostly physically maxed out and likely remains in the bullpen with average control. I only found video of him throwing two pitches, both riding fastballs up and away from lefties for strikeouts from what looks like a moderately low release.

19-576: RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #197. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #306. Prospects Live: #161.
It's unlikely that Christian Little signs here, but he's a famous name and deserves a spot in this writeup. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire class in 2021, he instead reclassified and enrolled early at Vanderbilt at just 17 years old. He held his own in two seasons as a swingman for the Commodores, then transferred to LSU for his junior season in 2023 where things did not quite go as planned, with a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings. Little has plenty of stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 98 with his fastball, also showing the ability to cut it in the upper 80's. His offspeed stuff is inconsistent, though the slider flashes above average and he also shows a curveball and changeup. The biggest thing holding him back has been command, as he regularly falls behind in the count and has to find a way to dig himself out. The delivery can get rigid, which doesn't help, and now in three years in the SEC he has not progressed as a prospect. The good news is that not only is the arm strength absolutely still there, but he is also extremely young for the class, nearly three years younger than Brandon Sproat and still nearly two years younger than some college juniors. If he goes back to LSU for another season, which it looks like he will, he'll still be young for the class in 2024.

Thursday, August 18, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

As we all know by now, the Mets rescinded their contract offer to Kumar Rocker in 2021 over a medical dispute and wound up handsomely rewarded in the 2022 draft, where they got to pick at both #11 and #14. With the third largest bonus pool of any club, they where able to pull off numerous above slot signings, including three that signed for more than $250,000 above their slot value and a fourth that went more than $125,000 over. Many would argue that they landed three first round talents because second rounder Blade Tidwell likely would have gone in that range if he had been fully healthy this spring. Interestingly, I noticed they targeted short hitters and tall pitchers. They didn't draft a single position player over 6'2" until the nineteenth round, including the 5'8" Jett Williams and the 5'11" Nick Morabito within their first four picks and the 5'9" D'Andre Smith a few picks later. Meanwhile, they drafted seven different pitchers that were 6'4" or taller, led by absolute giants like Paul Gervase at 6'10" and Tyler Stuart at 6'9". Many of those pitchers also come from high slots, putting steep angle on their pitches.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-11: C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech. My rank: #7.
Slot value: $4.78 million. Signing bonus: $5.02 million ($239,035 above slot value).
The Mets immediately flexed their financial muscles early in the draft, floating Kevin Parada out of the top ten picks despite him being connected to teams within the top five. Parada was a famous draft name in the 2020 high school class, where he could have gone in the second round had he been signable, but he was one of the top talents to reach campus instead and that has worked out extremely well for him. After announcing his presence with a strong freshman season, he further built his stock with a massive sophomore campaign that saw him slash .360/.452/.709 with 26 home runs and a 32/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games for Georgia Tech. He has always been an extremely professional hitter, taking great at bats with a keen ability to make adjustments and find something good to hit. Despite an unorthodox setup in which he holds his hands high above his head with the bat pointed down his back, similar to Paul Goldschmidt, he's consistently in a good hitting position when the time comes and he shows exceptional feel for the barrel. Parada's power has continually improved, and now looks at least plus with some throwing plus-plus grades on it. He can crush pitches all over the zone and send the ball out to all fields, giving him a chance to be a perennial 30 home run bat if he reaches his ceiling. Add in the high on-base percentages that will come from his plus hit tool, and he could rival Adley Rutschman as the best catcher in baseball if it all breaks right. However, he is not nearly the defender that Rutschman is and it's no guarantee he sticks back there. While the Los Angeles-area native has worked hard on his defense, he's still not a great athlete behind the plate and needs to work on his mobility. His arm has improved, but he's not going to shut down the running game like some other guys, especially if MLB implements some of the new base stealing rules they're trying out in the minors. Of course, he has the bat to profile anywhere on the diamond, whether that's behind the plate, at first base, in left field, or even as a DH. The guy just hits.

1-14: SS Jett Williams, Rockwall-Heath HS [TX]. My rank: #13.
Slot value: $4.24 million. Signing bonus: $3.9 million ($343,800 below slot value).
This is another great pick for the Mets, who save over $300,000 on a guy who I think could be a top ten player in the class. Jett Williams is undersized at 5'8", but that's about the only knock on his game and more and more evaluators have realized that as he's continued to play with his hair on fire. He has tremendous feel for the barrel from the right side, consistently hitting the ball hard against quality pitching both on the showcase circuit and at home in the Dallas area with little swing and miss in his game. Despite his smaller stature, he taps average raw power for now and could grow into above average raw power in time. It all comes from a sweet right handed swing with natural bat speed, whip, and loft, making for an excellent all-around package at the plate. Williams played shortstop in high school and it looks like the Mets will give him an opportunity to continue there in pro ball, with enough arm strength to make it work there. He's a plus runner with the springy actions necessary to play the position, though he could also profile well in center field if that ends up being his long term position. In all, Williams could hit 15-20 home runs a year with high on-base percentages and good defense if it all breaks right, and I think he has a higher likelihood of reaching his ceiling than most kids his age. He had been committed to Mississippi State but the nearly $4 million signing bonus rendered that moot. Meanwhile, he's getting his feet wet in the Florida Complex League and is slashing .273/.370/.500 with one home run and four strikeouts to three walks through seven games.

2-52: RHP Blade Tidwell, Tennessee. My rank: #40.
Slot value: $1.48 million. Signing bonus: $1.85 million ($374,900 above slot value).
Two years ago, the Mets selected injured Mississippi State sophomore J.T. Ginn with the 52nd overall pick and signed him to an above slot deal, and they did nearly the exact same thing this year with the same pick. Like Ginn, Blade Tidwell quickly established himself as a premier SEC arm upon arriving on campus, and as a draft-eligible sophomore like Ginn, his name was thrown around right in the middle of the first round. Ginn went down with Tommy John surgery in his draft year, while Tidwell missed significant time early in the season with shoulder problems before coming back healthy in April. Tennessee handled him carefully throughout the season, only once allowing him to complete five innings, and he finished with a 3.00 ERA and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 innings. Tidwell is a power arm through and through, sitting in the mid 90's and getting up to 99 at his best. Previously a straight pitch that lacked deception, he's worked hard to add life to the pitch and it now features nice carry up in the zone with high spin rates. The southern Tennessee native adds a plus, power slider with late bite, serving as his best offspeed, while also adding in a curveball and changeup that flash above average as well. It's a first round arsenal when he's healthy, and he pounds the strike zone with conviction so as to limit his walks. His control is ahead of his command, but with stuff like his, it's not a huge deal. The 6'4" righty is very physical on the mound and looks durable now that he's past his shoulder woes, but shoulders are scary and he still hasn't really been stretched out this year aside from one 7.2 inning start against Alabama State in the Knoxville Regional, where he threw a season-high 93 pitches. If Tidwell's shoulder holds together, there should be nothing stopping him from becoming a mid-rotation starter or better. He has gotten into two games so far, one in the Florida Complex League and one for Low A St. Lucie, tossing 2.2 shutout innings with two strikeouts to two walks.

2C-75: OF Nick Morabito, Gonzaga HS [DC]. My rank: #78.
Slot value: $873,700. Signing bonus: $1 million ($126,300 above slot value).
The Mets went back into the high school ranks to grab Nick Morabito here, a spring riser out of the Washington, DC prep ranks that has earned comparisons to James Triantos a year ago, having grown up just one town over. While he's not quite as short, Morabito is also a moderately similar player to first rounder Jett Williams. He has a lightning quick, compact right handed swing that has helped him barrel up everything he's seen lately, helping him potentially solid average power in time despite his 5'11" frame. Unlike many of today's hitters, that swing plays very well up in the zone and he frequently does damage up there, showcasing his strong plate coverage. A shortstop in high school, the Mets drafted Morabito as an outfielder, where his plus speed and weaker arm will fit well. The Northern Virginia native is very old for a high school senior, having turned 19 in May, but the Mets have had success with older preps before (as I write this paragraph the day of Brett Baty's debut) and he already has a very advanced all around game. I'd put a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and some stolen bases to boot, though the Virginia Tech commit is off to a .125/.176/.188 start in the Florida Complex League with eleven strikeouts to one walk in four games. Not great, but it's just a start.

3-90: RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida. My rank: #131.
Slot value: $691,300. Signing bonus: did not sign.
For the second year in a row, the Mets failed to sign a highly touted SEC righty, though this one isn't nearly as high profile as Kumar Rocker. Brandon Sproat, who is coming off a breakout year with Florida, will return to Gainesville for the 2023 season to build off that success and hopefully patch up the last few holes in his profile. Sproat has always had arm strength, but he was unrefined and struggled to a 6.65 ERA as a sophomore reliever in 2021. He jumped into the rotation this spring and was much better, especially late in the year, finishing with a 3.41 ERA and an 82/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. The Pensacola-area native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball as a starter and has hit triple digits in relief, though the pitch is fairly straight and lacks deception. He works off a solid curveball that flashes above average as well as a very advanced changeup that flashes plus, giving him a full arsenal that will work as a starter. Previously wild, he threw significantly more strikes in 2022 and that enabled him to stay in the rotation, along with his athletic, strong, 6'3" frame. However, despite the improved command and power stuff, Sproat didn't miss nearly as many bats as you might expect, running a 21.5% strikeout rate that was the second lowest of all college pitchers on my draft board, ahead of only Georgia's (now the White Sox') Jonathan Cannon at 20.9%. He could probably use a more consistent breaking ball to miss more bats in pro ball, but overall he does need to create more deception somehow to miss more bats. Doing that will be on the docket for his senior season in Gainesville, where he will turn 23 shortly after the 2023 draft.

4-119: 3B Jacob Reimer, Yucaipa HS [CA]. My rank: #101.
Slot value: $507,700. Signing bonus: $775,000 ($267,300 above slot value).
The Mets came out with yet another over slot signing in the fourth round, adding one of the better all-around hitters on the West Coast in Jacob Reimer. He consistently hung around that third to fourth round range throughout the draft cycle, building his stock a bit with a strong showing at the National High School Invitational in the spring. Reimer is a power hitter, with very strong feel for the barrel and the ability to cover the whole plate with authority. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'2" frame, and he loves to get his arms extended and drive the ball. You can't quite call him power over hit, because he's also a disciplined hitter that has handled the bat well in his looks against high quality pitching, such as at the NHSI. Together, that's a chance to hit 25-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages if it breaks right, though of course the Southern California kid needs to continue to develop physically and refine his approach to get there. Drafted as a third baseman, he's a bit clunky over there and will have to work on refining his actions, and if he can't, he may be destined for first base where his fringy speed will be a better fit and the pressure will increase on his bat. He had been committed to Washington but instead is hitting .286/.412/.643 with one home run and just two strikeouts to three walks through four games in the Florida Complex League.

5-149: SS D'Andre Smith, Southern California. My rank: #203.
Slot value: $379,400. Signing bonus: $379,400.
D'Andre Smith was a well-known prep prospect coming out of San Dimas High School in Southern California, and his stock has more or less held steady after two years at USC. In 2022, as a draft-eligible sophomore, he slashed .286/.380/.471 with eight home runs and a 44/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Undersized at 5'9", he shows the ability to do a lot of things well even if he lacks a true carrying tool. Smith has a loose operation at the plate, showing solid gap power to all fields with the ability to really drive it to his pull side, so you can feel comfortable putting him down for fringe-average power. He makes a lot of hard contact and has kept his strikeout reasonably low, but he can be susceptible to breaking balls and it's hard to put better than an average hit tool on him for now. The Mets drafted him as a shortstop, where his fringy arm might be a little bit stretched, but he's very fluid out there in the field and could be above average at second base. I don't think the profile is loud enough to play every day, but he could flirt with double digit home runs and post solid on-base percentages at the major league level, a very strong reserve profile. Additionally, teams reportedly loved his makeup and work ethic, so the Mets are full believers that he'll maximize his natural talent and continue to get better in their system. In his first game in the Florida Complex League, he went hitless in three at bats but did pick up a walk.

6-179: RHP Tyler Stuart, Southern Miss. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $288,900. Signing bonus: $220,000 ($68,900 below slot value).
Tyler Stuart redshirted his freshman season at Southern Miss in 2019, then missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery and pitched just 16.1 innings in 2021. Finally in 2022, he got his opportunity to pitch regularly, and he finished the season with a 3.38 ERA and a 38/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, mostly out of the bullpen. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98, coming in with hard sinking action from a high release point. His slider shows potential as an average pitch, while he doesn't use his changeup as much, instead relying on the sinker/slider combo. Standing 6'9", he towers over hitters and puts steep angle on his pitches, adding to that sinker/slider profile, and generally does a pretty good job of throwing strikes. He'll likely continue to be a reliever in pro ball, where he won't need to develop his changeup as much and can continue to just pound the zone with velocity. If he can get up to New York quickly, even Tylor Megill will have to look up at somebody, but he'll have to beat twelfth rounder Paul Gervase out of LSU, who stands 6'10". Following the same game plan as Blade Tidwell, he has pitched one game each in the Florida Complex League and at Low A St. Lucie, allowing one run over 2.1 innings while striking out five.

7-209: RHP Jonah Tong, Georgia Premier Academy [GA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $226,000. Signing bonus: $226,000.
Jonah Tong represents an interesting mid round gamble, as he has a long way to go but comes with considerable ceiling. Formerly a Toronto-area prep, he came down to the Georgia Premier Academy this year and took a step forward, especially in the spring. Tong sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, coming in with a high, over the top arm slot from a crossfire delivery that puts tough angle on the ball. Throw in the riding action he puts on the pitch from that slot and it's a fairly unique look for hitters. He works in a big spinning curveball with plenty of depth, though he needs to get more consistent with it to miss more bats in pro ball. It does show potential as a potential plus pitch down the line with significant refinement. Standing at 6'1", he has long arms and legs to appear taller, though he's still learning to repeat his delivery and needs to get much more consistent with his command. Between his athleticism, projection, tough angle, and feel for spin, there is significant upside here if the Mets can get everything more consistent and help him add a changeup, but there is a long way to go especially for a kid who already turned 19 in June. He had previously been committed to North Dakota State as one of their best recruits in a long time.

13-389: RHP Dylan Ross, Georgia. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Dylan Ross was one of the better JuCo arms available last spring out of Northwest Florida State, but he made it to campus at Georgia and brought with him big expectations. He tossed five innings of one run ball against Albany in his season debut, but left his second start of the season against Wofford with an arm injury and underwent undisclosed surgery that ended his season right there. The final line – six innings, two earned runs, six hits, four walks, six strikeouts. Fortunately, scouts do have plenty of history with Ross given his draft eligibility a year ago, and the Mets liked what they saw then and are willing to bet on him going forward. Everything here is about power. The South Georgia native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, hitting 99 last year with NWF from a steep slot. He adds a hard slider that looks above average when he locates it, and his hard splitter plays well off his fastball, again when he locates it. Ross does struggle with command, with a high effort delivery that can be difficult to keep in sync. With a big, 6'5", 250 pound frame, he's plenty physical enough to start but at this point has a classic relief profile, where he could touch triple digits and make for extremely uncomfortable at bats. If the Mets do want Ross to start, beyond refining his command they'll need to help him incorporate something softer into his arsenal so that he can more effectively change speeds and stay in control of at bats. Personally, I think they'd be better off just fast tracking him in that relief role once he's healthy, and that could be the plan anyways.

Sunday, August 15, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

There is a lot to unpack here with the Mets' draft class, perhaps more than any other team. They started it off with the most famous name in the draft, Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker, but pulled his offer after a disagreement over his medical and showed him the door. That would be a disaster for any team, but it was especially bad for the Mets, who did not put a backup plan in place by drafting an "unsignable" high schooler on the third day of the draft. They spent more than a million less than their bonus pool throughout the second day of the draft in order to afford Rocker's original $6 million signing bonus, passing over some big talent in the process. Had they picked up a "priced out" high schooler like, say, Hagen Smith, on day three, they could have used that extra million to bring him in as a consolation prize. Instead, they signed all of their day three picks for $125,000 or less, again missing out on some top talent. Now, it's not all gloom for the Mets, because despite the awful position they put themselves in (and put Kumar in an even worse position), I actually think they drafted really well with the crappy hand they dealt themselves. Second rounder Calvin Ziegler is a stud who would have fit great in the third round and signed well below slot, third rounder Dominic Hamel had close to second round value in my opinion, and fourth rounder JT Schwartz absolutely had fourth round value even though he signed below slot. So even though this was a disaster, it could have been worse.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-10: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt. My rank: #10.
This was the most talked about pick in the draft this year, and for good reason. Kumar Rocker was the most famous name in the class, having been a potential first round pick out of high school in 2018 before setting the world on fire as a freshman in 2019. That year, he played a huge part in pitching Vanderbilt to the national championship, and his signature moment came when he struck out 19 in a super regional no-hitter against Duke. Though he had his inconsistencies, it was more of the same in 2021 as he finished with a 2.73 ERA and a 179/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings leading up to a runner-up finish for the Commodores, the 179 strikeouts tying with his teammate Jack Leiter to lead the nation. The Mets picked him up with the tenth overall pick and almost immediately agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but they disliked his medicals and rescinded the offer completely. Not reduced, rescinded. Because the Mets still own Rocker's draft rights despite actively not wanting him, he can't sign with another team, so he has a few options. His camp hasn't given any clarity on what he'll do, but he could go back to Vanderbilt (which seems unlikely), pitch in independent ball, work out on his own, or go the Carter Stewart route to Japan. It's sucks because he did nothing wrong to be put in this position, but unfortunately that's the way MLB has it set up. As for his skillset, the big 6'5" righty has a fastball that generally sits in the low to mid 90's and touches the upper 90's at its best, though it did dip briefly in 2021. His slider is his money pitch, looking like a plus-plus wipeout offering in the past, but it got slurvy at times this year. He also shows an above average cutter and has shown feel for a changeup, but the latter got hit hard when he broke it out this year. He has great control and rarely hurts himself with walks, but struggles with location inside the zone and could get hit hard in pro ball if he doesn't tighten that up. There are also some moving parts in his delivery that need to be ironed out, but he's a great athlete that moves very well for his size. Lastly, he's a big game pitcher who always steps up in high pressure situations, with all the intangibles you look for in a workhorse ace.

2-46: RHP Calvin Ziegler, TNXL Academy [FL]. My rank: #95.
The Mets got their biggest discount with Calvin Ziegler, a Canadian high schooler who was eligible last year but went undrafted. He was extremely young for the class last year so he's age appropriate this year, after which he spent the spring pitching at TNXL Academy in Orlando. He's got a power arm that can pump fastballs in the low to mid 90's, getting up as high as 98 at best. The Ontario native adds an above average curveball and changeup, giving him one of the better three pitch mixes in the class. It's a pretty efficient operation drawing power from his back leg, channeling all of the strength in his sturdy 6' frame towards the plate. His command can come and go, but he's generally around the strike zone and shows flashes of above average command. Ziegler does a lot well and is trending in the right direction, and so long as his command stays together, he carries less risk than the typical high school arm because of that. The Mets probably won't get an ace here, but they should be getting at least a very capable back-end starter with a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation guy. He signed for $910,000, which was roughly $710,000 below slot value to forego an Auburn commitment.

3-81: RHP Dominic Hamel, Dallas Baptist. My rank: #59.
I love this pick for the Mets, and they didn't even have to go above slot to get it done. Dominic Hamel has been draft eligible for five years in a row, but went undrafted in 2017 out of high school, in 2018 and 2019 at Yavapai JC in Arizona, and again in 2020 at Dallas Baptist. He might have gone somewhere in the sixth to tenth round range in 2020 had the draft been longer, but he took a step forward in 2021 anyways and posted a 4.22 ERA and a 136/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings. Hamel has a very interesting fastball that sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96, but he combines excellent extension with high spin rates to make the pitch play up. He adds a curveball and a slider, both of which come with high spin rates as well, and though they can blend into each other at times, there is a lot to work with. Currently, his changeup is his fourth pitch. The Phoenix-area native shows average command, nothing special but enough to get the job done, though his delivery can be a bit rushed at times. He's far from a finished product even though he's already 22, and to a traditional club he could look like a reliever. If the Mets get creative in their development, though, his unique pitch metrics could make him an impact starting pitcher once the New York optimizes his approach and helps him get a little more refined with those secondary pitches. If he takes a step forward with either his command or that secondary stuff, I think we're talking about at least a #3 or #4 starter. If not, the stuff will play up in short bursts out of the bullpen. The 6'2" righty signed for full slot value at $755,300.

4-111: 1B JT Schwartz, UCLA. My rank: #112.
Here's another fun one. As a Nationals fan who saw a very similar player in Branden Boissiere sign for $600,000 a round earlier, I actually would have preferred this JT Schwartz pick regardless of the fact that he signed for more than $100,000 less. After redshirting his freshman year, Schwartz has been the most consistent hitter in a stacked UCLA lineup over the past two seasons and was one of the toughest outs on the West Coast this spring, slashing .396/.514/.628 with eight home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. Schwartz has a plus hit tool that enables him to find the barrel exceptionally easily, deftly identifying balls from strikes and controlling the strike zone throughout his at bats. Listed at a lanky 6'4", he has slowly been adding power to his game and popped for eight home runs this spring, though from a first baseman you likely want to see more. There are some concerns over how physical he will actually end up, but if I were the Mets, I would feed him nothing but steaks and protein powder until he was hitting 20+ home runs a year (though given the fact that he'll be making a four figure salary in the minors, that might be unlikely). The Southern California native is probably limited to first base in pro ball, and if the Mets had any inclination of trying him out at third base, they probably would have announced him as one, though what you're officially drafted as really doesn't matter. The sky is the limit if he can bump his power up, but the most likely outcome I see is a 15-20 home run hitter with high on-base percentages and little defensive value, and he'll have to prove he's durable after missing time with hip issues. Schwartz signed for $475,000, which was $47,600 below slot value, and has three hits in twelve at bats so far for Low A St. Lucie.

5-142: RHP Christian Scott, Florida. Unranked.
A bit buried in an incredibly deep Florida pitching staff that saw three other pitchers get drafted (Tommy Mace, Jack Leftwich, Franco Aleman, and ironically all by the Indians), Christian Scott showed very well out of the Gator bullpen with a 3.00 ERA and a 51/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 innings this spring. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and got as high as 98 in 2021, getting some nice run on the ball. Scott's primary offspeed pitch is an above average slider that helped him miss plenty of bats, and he has shown an average changeup from time to time. The 6'4" righty stays closed in his delivery before forcefully unwinding at the last second, but his command did take a step forward in 2021 and he was getting ahead in the count much more often. Because of the effort delivery though, it's hard to see him working back into the rotation in the Mets' system and he's probably a long term reliever. He's very old for a junior and already turned 22 in June, further pointing to a bullpen career. The South Florida native signed for $350,000, which was $36,600 below slot value.

6-172: RHP Carson Seymour, Kansas State. Unranked.
Carson Seymour is well travelled, having grown up in California before beginning his college career nearly 2500 miles away at Dartmouth, after which he came almost exactly halfway home to Kansas State. So I guess the compromise between California and New Hampshire is Kansas. He looked sharp in 2020 and earned serious consideration towards the back of the five round draft, but went undrafted and came back to Manhattan for another season. This year was very up and down and he finished with a 6.19 ERA and a 57/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings. Seymour is a power arm if you've ever seen one, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball over long outings and getting up to 99 in short stints. The 6'6", 260 pound righty also spins a plus slider that can crack 90, something that will be a true weapon even at the big league level. He also shows feel for an above average curveball and a solid changeup, but he's 22 and a half and scouts are still waiting for him to put it all together. Seymour has long struggled to repeat his delivery and often gets caught leaving pitches over the plate after he falls behind in the count, making all of his pitches play down. It also doesn't help that his fastball is pretty straight and should probably be tinkered with in pro ball, perhaps switched to a two seamer or sinker. The Mets have their work cut out for them in making the Southern California product a useable big league piece, but the sky is the limit and in the best case scenario, he may not just be limited to a bullpen role. He signed for full slot value at $291,400.

8-232: RHP Mike Vasil, Virginia. My rank: #147.
Mike Vasil's stock has been on a bit of a rollercoaster for a long time. He was considered a potential first round pick out of high school, but got hurt as a senior and fulfilled his commitment to Virginia. There, he underwhelmed evaluators over the first two years of his college career, watching his stock fall considerably. Then in 2021, he came out firing with three straight gems to start off the season against UConn, UNC, and Florida State, each of whom made a regional, pushing his name back up boards into top two rounds consideration. Then his stuff flattened back out and he has steadily fallen ever since, furthering UVA's terribly poor track record of developing pitchers. He finished with a 4.52 ERA and a 73/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings. Vasil shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to 94-95, adding a full arsenal of secondary pitches behind it. His slider is short and hard, while his curveball is sharp but doesn't always show big depth, and his changeup gets good fade. They're all useful pitches, but none acts as a true putaway pitch and he doesn't have quite enough velocity to just gas hitters up. The 6'5" righty has a big frame and hits his spots well with above average command, meaning all the puzzle pieces are in place for a #3 or #4 starter. But because he's failed to miss a ton of bats, it's probably a #5 starter outlook unless he gets a lot more consistent with one of his breaking balls. In the third to fifth round where he was projected, that was a tough sell, but it's certainly an interesting one in the eighth. The Boston-area native signed for full slot value at $181,200.

11-322: OF Rowdey Jordan, Mississippi State. Unranked.
In 2019, the Mets picked up all time SEC hits leader Jake Mangum and all time LSU hits leader Antoine Duplantis, and while Rowdey Jordan didn't exactly threaten Mangum's Mississippi State record, the New York is getting a similar player as they load up on established SEC leadoff men. Rowdey was a fan favorite in Starkville, where he was Mangum's heir in that regard in addition to being the next leadoff man, and he finished a very successful four year career with a .311/.393/.481 line over 208 games. This year, he set career highs in all three triple slash categories at .323/.417/.546, adding ten home runs and a 43/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games. The Auburn, Alabama native is not overly physical at 5'10", but gets the job done due to strong feel for the barrel and plenty of twitchy strength in his smaller frame. He shows no problems handling advanced SEC pitching and setting the table for the guys behind him, employing a somewhat aggressive approach as well as a willingness to take his HBP's and get on base. Jordan is an above average runner who will steal his share of bases in the majors, and he should also be able to stick in center field. It's definitely a fourth outfielder profile because he likely won't ever develop more than 10-12 home run power at best and shows an average hit tool, but he has a lot of success already under his belt and should transition to pro ball relatively easily. He signed for $125,000 and is off to a red hot start for Low A St. Lucie, slashing .429/.500/.476 with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3) through seven games.

16-472: RHP Trey McLoughlin, Fairfield. Unranked.
The Mets didn't draft any true hometown guys, but we can consider Trey McLoughlin to be one as a product of Shelton High School just west of New Haven and a four year Fairfield Stag. His teammate, Watertown (near Waterbury) native Justin Guerrera, also went to the Mets in the twentieth round. McLoughlin missed most of the 2021 season but controlled the strike zone well when he was on the mound, posting a 4.94 ERA and a 32/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings, including a regional start against Arizona State. He sits around 90 with his fastball, bumping 93 at his best, while adding a good curveball. The 6'2" righty shows strong command and could stick in the rotation if the Mets find a way to bump his velocity up a little bit and refines his changeup, and he's known as a strong competitor. That's about all the information I have. He signed for $30,000 and has allowed two runs in three innings so far for Low A St. Lucie, striking out five.

18-532: RHP Kolby Kubichek, Texas. Unranked.
I was hoping for a breakout from Kolby Kubichek this spring, but he was more good than great and couldn't quite build on his stock. Still, he remains a very interesting arm here in the eighteenth round. Having jumped onto scouts radars with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League as an underclassman in 2019 (1.77 ERA, 41/12 K/BB in 35.2 IP), he finished the 2021 season with a 3.86 ERA and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings for Texas, all as a starter. Kubichek is an undersized sinkerballer who sits around 90 with his fastball, topping out around 93-94, though the movement is above average. He adds an above average changeup that is his best secondary option, playing extremely well off his sinker, while his slider and curveball are more fringe-average pitches that don't miss a ton of bats. The 6' righty shows fringe-average command as well, which will need to improve given his profile as a pitch to contact guy. Either that, or we'll need to see an uptick in his velocity and one of his breaking balls, but given his size the command is probably more likely where he needs to focus. The Bryan, Texas native has a chance to be a #4-#5 starter or long reliever. He signed for $125,000 and has allowed three runs (one earned) over three innings between the FCL and Low A St. Lucie, striking out three.

Monday, June 29, 2020

2020 Draft Review: New York Mets

1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State
2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS (CA)
3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State
4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona
5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans

The Mets were aggressive at the top of the draft and went more conservative later on, and I think the end product was a really nice draft class. I loved each of their first three picks, netting them two speedy Southern California high school outfielders with offensive upside in addition to a recovering TJ arm who has clear first round talent. JT Ginn, the TJ arm, will require a large over slot bonus, so the Mets had to save money later in the draft, signing their third and fifth round picks to a combined $40,000 – adding $964,400 in pool space to reel in Ginn. The Mets pulled in a lot of talent here, especially in those first three picks, and this should give a jolt to their middling farm system. Also, if you live on the North Shore of Long Island, they signed your congressman's son in the undrafted free agent market.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-19: OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, Harvard-Westlake HS, CA (my rank: 15)
The Mets started off their draft with a bang, picking up probably the most famous name on the high school circuit. Crow-Armstrong, a product of the elite Studio City private school in the Hollywood Hills that once boasted Lucas Giolito, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty in the same rotation at the same time, first emerged onto the draft scene as an underclassman. A lackluster summer in 2019 set his stock back a bit, but he came out of the gate hot in 2020 and started to rebuild. Crow-Armstrong has long been known for his defense, as he's a natural in center field that makes his plus speed play up with great jumps and direct routes to the ball. He'll stick in center field, no doubt, and provide a ton of value there. The bat is a bit more of a question mark, but the production he showed in the shortened 2020 certainly helped. He's a 6'1" left handed hitter with a really loose, contact-oriented swing, but there is some power projection in there and I could see him hitting 20 home runs or more per season at his ceiling. A more realistic expectation might be 15-20, but he also projects for high on-base percentages because he's an advanced hitter who makes very consistent contact. Combine that with plus defense, and you have yourself a heck of a ballplayer. I'm very optimistic on Crow-Armstrong and I think the Mets will be very happy with this pick (as long as they don't trade him to the Mariners to join Jarred Kelenic). He signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment right at slot for $3.36 million and I think he'll be worth every penny. Pre-draft profile here.

2-52: RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (my rank: 23)
There is a good chance the Mets get fantastic value at this spot, even if Ginn does sign over slot. He was actually the 30th overall pick by the Dodgers out of Brandon High School in the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, but he didn't sign and instead headed to Mississippi State. There, his progress has been tremendous. When he got to campus, Ginn was a power-armed freshman who could run his fastball up to 99 with a promising slider, but he had a high effort delivery, a bit of a stocky frame, and was inconsistent with his secondary stuff and command: reliever qualities. However, the progress Ginn made in that freshman season was remarkable, as he leaned out a bit, got more consistent with the slider that is now a plus pitch, and developed a legitimate changeup. Not only that, he smoothed out his delivery a bit, threw more strikes, and had great results for a freshman in the SEC: 8-4, 3.13 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 105/19 K/BB in 86.1 IP. I liked him as high as the top ten picks earlier in the spring, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and required Tommy John surgery, clouding his status. Still, TJ isn't nearly as scary as it once was, and once he bounces back healthy, I think we have a legitimate impact starting pitcher on our hands, one who could even be an ace. He still has some work to do in getting more consistent with his delivery and hitting spots within the zone, but he's miles ahead of where he was in highs school and should continue to develop in that direction. In the Mets system, he'll join his college teammate and 2019 fourth rounder Jake Mangum. Slot value is $1.4 million at the 52nd pick, but the Mets have nearly $2.6 million left in their bonus pool and I expect him to take most if not all of it. Pre-draft profile here.

2C-69: OF Isaiah Greene, Corona HS, CA (my rank: 50)
More great value for the Mets here at the Zack Wheeler compensation pick, especially since Isaiah Greene signed under slot. Another LA-area high schooler, Greene isn't too, too dissimilar to Pete Crow-Armstrong in that he has a really wide array of ways he can impact the game. The most notable is his plus to plus-plus speed, as he could easily beat the already fast Crow-Armstrong in a foot race and deploys that speed well on both sides of the ball. He's not quite as instinctual a defender as PCA, but he's another true center field type because the instincts are plenty good enough and of course, there's the speed. He shows a really sweet swing from the left side – it's quick and loose, gets some nice loft on there, and consistently stays under control. He makes plenty of hard contact for now, but it's easy to see him growing into average or even slightly above average raw power as he fills out his 6'1" frame. That gives him a peak of perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with plenty of doubles and triples in addition to good on-base percentages, with lots of stolen bases to go with them. I really like the overall package that Greene brings, and if both he makes it along with PCA and the aforementioned Jake Mangum, we might never see a baseball drop in the Citi Field outfield. Greene signed away from a Missouri commitment for $850,000, which was $79,800 below slot. Pre-draft profile here.

3-91: SS Anthony Walters, San Diego State (unranked)
Yet another Los Angeles-area product, Walters bounced around a bit during his college career, starting at Cal before spending a year at Mount San Antonio CC  and subsequently transferring to San Diego State. After raking at Mount San Antonio, he was off to a decent start in San Diego, slashing .271/.333/.356 with a home run and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in 2020. He's an athletic guy at 6'1", generating some decent power from a line drive right handed swing and good extension. He can be a bit aggressive at the plate at times and doesn't come with the rock-solid plate discipline you tend to see in these money saving picks, so the Mets will have to help him control the strike zone a bit better in pro ball. The good news is he's a glove-first guy who can stick at shortstop, so you can project a utility infield future on him pretty easily. He's kind of an interesting tweener prospect with the bat, not quite a high ceiling type and not quite a high floor type, so providing that value with the glove is really helpful to his profile. As a redshirt junior who will turn 23 over the offseason, Walters didn't have much leverage and signed for just $20,000, which saved $627,300 from the bonus pool.

4-120: C Matthew Dyer, Arizona (unranked)
Dyer grew up in the Phoenix area but started his college career at Oregon, then transferred back to his home state after one season. After sitting out the 2018 season due to transfer rules, he put up a huge 2019 in which he slashed .393/.480/.571 with four home runs and a 28/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, but he priced himself out of the draft to return to Arizona for his redshirt junior year. The results weren't quite the same in 2020, as he slashed just .220/.329/.441 with three home runs and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games, and he wound up with the Mets in the fourth round. Tall and skinny at a listed 6'4" and 185 pounds, he shows some power generated with his long arms and legs, while a very sound approach at the plate allows him to make consistent contact. It's a pretty balanced offensive profile overall, projecting for maybe 15-20 home runs a year with good on-base percentages at his absolute ceiling, though the key will be continuing to get stronger and fill out that frame. More likely is a super-utility profile in which he provides maybe 5-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages, seeing time all over the diamond. The Mets drafted him as a catcher, but he's probably too lanky to stick back there, as he has a good arm but is just so-so when it comes to the finer aspects of catching. He also has experience at second base, third base, and in the outfield, so if he does hit enough to start, he'll probably just end up wherever the Mets need him. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's relatively young for a fourth year player and only turns 22 in July. Dyer signed for $350,000, which was $128,300 below slot.

5-150: RHP Eric Orze, New Orleans (unranked)
If you're looking for a feel-good story to root for, here it is. Originally from the Chicago area, Orze seems to like the Gulf Coast better and started his career at Northwest Florida State Community College before transferring to the University of New Orleans. He hasn't pitched a whole lot, though, because he's fought and beaten cancer – twice. First testicular, then skin. Now a fifth year senior, he'll turn 23 in August but the right now package is a good one. He started off well in 2020, posting a 2.75 ERA and a 29/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings, and the Mets would like to see that fresh arm hit the ground running in pro ball. He has a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 97 in shorter stints, adding a very good splitter with great depth down in the zone, an average hard slider with good horizontal movement, and an average cutter that's a little firmer than his slider. He has a skinny 6'3" frame and throws plenty of strikes, but he hasn't proven he can hold his stuff deep into games or deep into the season. That, combined with his age, means that he might be ticketed to the bullpen, though the Mets would love to see him continue to add strength as he gets farther from his cancer battles and potentially surprise some people as a #4 starter. In the bullpen, his fastball could be more consistently in the mid 90's and could play really well off his splitter, and he could move more quickly, which would be useful given his age. He signed for just $20,000, saving $337,100 off of slot value.

Undrafted: OF Joe Suozzi, Boston College (unranked)
Here's a hometown kid for the Mets, and a congressman's son no less. Joe Suozzi, son of U.S. House of Representatives member Thomas Suozzi, grew up in Glen Cove and attended Chaminade High School in Mineola, just twenty minutes west of Citi Field on Long Island. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Boston College after walking on as a sophomore, capping it off with a great start to his junior year in which he slashed .414/.471/.638 with one home run and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio while picking up at least one hit in 14 out of 15 games. That wasn't a weak schedule, either, as it included weekend series against Arizona State and Clemson and he went a combined 11-26 (.423 AVG) with three doubles and two walks in those six games. He's an aggressive hitter that doesn't draw many walks, instead swinging early and often in the count to try to do damage. It's worked better and better for him at BC as his hit tool has developed, and he's got some raw power in his 6'2" frame as well. He'll need to cut down the aggressiveness in pro ball or else advanced pitchers will carve him up, but he showed a lot of impact in the shortened 2020 season and the Mets think the bat will be potent enough to work.

Other undrafted
RHP Kody Davidson, Tennessee (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 8/0 K/BB in 5.1 innings)
RHP Austin Faith, Lamar (0-1, 9.28 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 6/8 K/BB in 10.2 innings)
RHP Dylan Hall, Central Oklahoma (4-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 45/8 K/BB in 30 innings)
OF Brandon McIlwaine, California (2 HR, .258/.309/.435, 2 SB, 22/5 K/BB in 20 games)
RHP Drake Nightengale, South Alabama (1-0, 3.09 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 39/10 K/BB in 23.1 innings)