Showing posts with label Tommy White. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tommy White. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 1, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Oakland A's

Full list of draftees

Oakland's final draft before it becomes Sacramento was an interesting one. They saved almost $1.4 million on their first pick, then spread the savings around with sizable over slot bonuses in the second, competitive balance, fourth, sixth, seventh, and twelfth rounds. Teams draft players at the same position all the time, but doing so at first base is a bit trickier. That's what the A's did with their first two picks in Nick Kurtz and Tommy White, so one is going to have to DH and then the bottom of the defensive spectrum will be used up for the foreseeable future should both picks work out. After those two big power bats, though, it's a very diverse class with a whole bunch of different profiles, from extreme contact hitters to toolsy types to glove-first future utility infielders. 
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $8.37 million. Signing bonus: $7 million ($1.37 million below slot value).
My rank: #7. MLB Pipeline: #7. Baseball America: #8.
It wasn't the smoothest ride, but Nick Kurtz fell out of contention for, then worked his way back into, a top five selection then provided the A's with some savings by signing between the slot values of the #6 and #7 picks. Kurtz put up two massive seasons at Wake Forest in 2022 and 2023, then entered 2024 as a frontrunner in the conversation for the first overall pick. However, he started slow and was hitting just .217 in late March, having also missed time with a shoulder injury. That slump was short lived, though, and from March 31st to April 16th he hit .526/.647/1.737 with 14 home runs and just four strikeouts in a ten game stretch to thrust himself back to where he should be. Kurtz is a massive human being standing at a listed 6'5", 240 pounds, and he looks every bit of it. He effortlessly generates light tower power that has helped him blast 61 home runs and slug .725 in three years in Winston-Salem, knocking the ball out to all fields with a loose, easy swing that lets his strength do the work. He's also an extremely patient hitter that doesn't get much to hit anyways, walking in 30% of his plate appearances and leading all of Division I by walking 78 times in 54 games despite missing time with the shoulder injury. His loose hands help him make pretty good contact too, so when you combine a plus approach with average pure bat to ball and plus-plus power, you get a potential 40 homer, .400 on-base hitter at the big league level. While he is limited to first base, he's a much better athlete than you'd expect given his size and frame and was an accomplished high school basketball player. That helps him glide around the base at first, saving his infielders from errors and scooping up hot shots that appeared destined for the right field corner. While this may have been a bit of a surprising pick with names like JJ Wetherholt, Jac Caglianone, and Hagen Smith still on the board, he has a chance to be the best hitter in this class. Indeed, he had zero trouble with the transition to pro pitching and hit .368/.520/.763 with four home runs and a 10/12 strikeout to walk ratio over a dozen game sample between Low A Stockton and AA Midland. He could be in the majors next season, much like 2023 first rounder Jacob Wilson.

2-40: 3B Tommy White, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $2.33 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($667,900 above slot value).
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #20. Baseball America: #30.
If you follow college baseball at all, you know all about Tommy Tanks. If you don't, then I can spell out one of the most famous players in college baseball. A highly regarded draft prospect at IMG Academy in Florida, he turned down top three round interest to head to NC State. He hit the ground running in Raleigh with a home run barrage for the ages, eventually finishing his freshman season with 27 home runs and a .362/.425/.757 line. White leveraged that success into an opportunity to transfer to LSU, where he continued the success over the last two seasons and won a National Championship in 2023. In three years in college, he finished a .359/.426/.706 hitter with 64 home runs. White is a star, and he carries that star swagger with him everywhere he goes. He has ridiculous hands that whip the bat through the zone at lightning speed, getting the barrel to balls all over and outside the zone with remarkable consistency. His ultra strong wrists help him produce plus raw power that he taps every bit of in games due to the sheer quantity of barrels he finds, with the chance to hit thirty home runs annually. With his adjustable hands and strong bat to ball ability, he makes a ton of contact and keeps his strikeouts down, a rarity for a power hitter of his caliber. However, White is also extremely aggressive and chases almost a third of the time, leading to ultra low walk rates. That makes him a polarizing prospect, especially as a right handed hitter, with major questions as to whether he'll be able to continue making contact at such a high rate against better and better pitching. While there's no question that his ability in the box is nothing short of special, he will likely have to tone down that approach as he works towards the majors. Long a first baseman, he moved over to third base in 2024 and handled himself admirably, but he didn't do quite enough to change his long term projections of moving back to first base in pro ball. White has the bat to play anywhere, though it does set up an interesting conundrum with first rounder Nick Kurtz. If he gets a little more selective at the plate, he could star in the middle of Oakland's (Sacramento's? Las Vegas'?) lineup the same way he did in Baton Rouge. White hit .224/.309/.299 with two home runs and a 21/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games for Low A Stockton, so he'll need to make the adjustment next year.

CBB-73: LHP Gage Jump, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.08 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($923,100 above slot value).
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #62. Baseball America: #65.
Gage Jump will join his LSU teammate in heading west, and like Tommy White, he'll sign for well above slot value with a bonus fit for roughly the #47 pick. Jump, like White, was an extremely highly regarded prep prospect and actually had a chance to go in the first round, but made it to campus at UCLA instead. Tommy John surgery struck him down halfway through his freshman year, then he missed his entire sophomore season recovering. Transferring to LSU, he earned high praise from White for his fall performance before embarking on a strong 2024 season. Jump is a very interesting lefty. His fastball sits low to mid 90's and tops out around 96-97, but plays above its velocity with big riding and running life from a low release point. He has long leaned on his above average curveball that tunnels nicely off his fastball, but he moved more towards his slider in 2024 and found better results with that pitch. Jump has a changeup as well, though he doesn't use it as much and it will need more refinement in pro ball. The Orange County native uses a closed off delivery and gets deep into his glutes to ride down the mound and deliver the ball from an over the top slot while still maintaining that low release point. That creates some deception and gives his pitches some extra hop, and he did a great job pounding the strike zone in 2024 with just a 6.5% walk rate. The 6' lefty has a compact frame and lacks projection, though the now stuff is plenty and if he can maintain the command strides he's shown, he's a legitimate mid-rotation starting pitching prospect. Jump is highly competitive and has thrived in big game situations alongside White.

3-75: SS Josh Kuroda-Grauer, Rutgers {video}
Slot value: $1.04 million. Signing bonus: $1.04 million.
My rank: #82. MLB Pipeline: #90. Baseball America: #117.
Last year's first round selection of Jacob Wilson is looking good so far, so the A's doubled up in 2024 and grabbed a similar profile in the third round. Josh Kuroda-Grauer, who will join former Rutgers teammate and 2023 second rounder Ryan Lasko in the A's system, had two solid seasons in New Brunswick before breaking out with a massive 2024 in which his .428 batting average finished second in all of Division I behind only Rockies third overall pick and Golden Spikes Award winner Charlie Condon. Like Wilson, he is an elite contact hitter who ran absurd contact rates nearing 90%, helping him limit his strikeout rate to a minuscule 7.0% in 2024. Perhaps more impressively, he did so while running a relatively high chase rate, making contact with virtually every pitch in or out of the zone. It's a line drive approach in which he guides the ball around the field with precision, leading to high averages which will be sustainable in pro ball. The power is certainly below average, but his twitchy frame and whippy right handed swing help him produce enough impact to keep pitchers honest, giving him a shot for 5-10 home runs per season in pro ball. On the defensive side, Kuroda-Grauer is a sure handed shortstop with good feel for the infield, with plus speed as well that augments his range. His average arm limits him a little bit at the premium position, though he could become an above average to plus defender at second base should he slide across the bag. The North Jersey native seems most likely destined for a utility infielder role given his lack of power, but his high averages could help him play every day given his ability to stick up the middle on the defensive side. He's already moving quickly, having slashed .324/.421/.343 with a 9/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games between Low A Stockton, High A Lansing, and AAA Las Vegas.

4-104: OF Rodney Green, California {video}
Slot value: $703,400. Signing bonus: $1 million ($296,600 above slot value).
My rank: #137. MLB Pipeline: #132. Baseball America: #96.
This could have been a really cool story about an East Bay kid staying home to play for his hometown team. Unfortunately, the Oakland A's have played their final game and are moving east to Sacramento, then on to Las Vegas so Rodney Green will never get to suit up in Oakland. Green grew up in Richmond, California, just fifteen miles north of the Coliseum, and attended El Cerrito High School just to the south of Richmond. He stayed home to attend Cal, where he has spent three years tantalizing with his raw tools but also causing worry with the rawness in his game. Green combines present physicality and additional projection on his 6'3" frame, effortlessly flicking the barrel through the zone for above average raw power that should get to plus in time, especially to the pull side. It's a bit of a unique left handed stroke in which he just drops his hands to the ball and then swats it away, but he's so strong that the ball jumps off his bat anyways. He's also a very patient hitter that makes sure to always get good pitches to hit, helping his power play in games with 28 home runs over the past two seasons. Green's major wart, though, is contact. He whiffs at an astounding rate even though he typically stays within the strike zone and doesn't sell out for power, really struggling to time up quality stuff over the plate. He struggled to just a .161/.316/.290 slash line in the Cape Cod League and struck out almost 40% of the time, and the jump to pro ball may be a steep one. Green will need to make massive strides in his timing and pitch recognition – if he can, he has the approach to make the most of even incremental improvements. Meanwhile, he's a plus runner that has stolen 44 bases over the past two seasons and projects to play center field in the long run, which takes some pressure off his hit tool. If Green does make enough contact, he has a chance to play every day while hitting 20-25 home runs per season with low batting averages but solid on-base percentages, though the swing and miss may limit him to a platoon/fourth outfielder role. He's off to a good start moving towards the higher projection, slashing .289/.368/.464 with three home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 30/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Low A Stockton.

5-137: RHP Sam Stuhr, Portland {video}
Slot value: $510,000. Signing bonus: $510,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #184. Baseball America: #207.
Sam Stuhr (pronounced with a long U) gives the A's another West Coast prospect. Having grown up in Portland, he began his college career at Lower Columbia JC in southern Washington before transferring to Oregon State, where he watched the Beavers play from the bench for two seasons. Given his lack of playing time, he transferred once more to the University of Portland back in his hometown to great success. Stuhr sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97-98, though the pitch is fairly straight and he'll opt for an upper 80's cutter at times. He throws both a slider and a curveball, with the latter showing late bite to carve up hitters while the former gives him another solid option. He throws a changeup as well, but it's a bit behind. The 6'1" righty is very physical and can overwhelm hitters with his peak stuff, but his command is below average as he throws with some effort trying to blow past hitters. If Stuhr wants to remain a starter, he'll have to ease off the gas pedal just a little bit to stay ahead in counts. A bit on the older side having turned 22 shortly after the draft, there's a good chance he winds up in the bullpen where he can sit near the higher end of his velocity and pitch more off his fastball/slider combination.

6-166: RHP Josiah Romeo, Mayfield HS [ON] {video}
Slot value: $385,500. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($164,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #237. Baseball America: unranked.
The A's are playing the long game with Josiah Romeo, who lacks a carrying tool but looks like the kind of arm that could progress steadily and turn into a mid-rotation starting pitcher. He showed extremely well in the MLB Draft League (2.51 ERA, 16/1 K/BB in 14.1 IP) and appears to be on that path already. The fastball presently sits in the low 90's, peaking at 94 in the lead up to the draft, with sinking action to keep it off barrels. He shows an average slider with some tilt, then will occasionally mix in a changeup in showcase settings. Nothing in the arsenal will strike big league hitters out just yet, but he's trending in the right direction and carries plenty of projection on his 6'3" frame. Romeo has a simple, repeatable delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone with above average command for his age, so his low 90's fastball comes naturally. As he fills out and gets more explosive on the mound, the velocity should tick up and he has a good chance to be in the mid 90's more often than not down the road. The Toronto-area native had previously been committed to Florida State.

7-196: C Dylan Fien, Great Oak HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $300,200. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($149,800 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The A's spent their first round picks in 2020 and 2022 on Tyler Soderstom (Turlock) and Daniel Susac (Roseville), respectively, and they'll grab a third Californian catcher here with Dylan Fien. A Temecula native out of Southern California, Fien had been committed to UCLA but like Josiah Romero, his $550,000 signing bonus fits in the late fourth round. He is a big, physical, switch hitting catcher listed at 6'3", 210 pounds with room to keep filling out. He produces above average power for now and should grow into plus power as he continues to get stronger and more explosive at the plate, with long arms and legs that create additional leverage. The left handed swing is a bit smoother than the right, though like any power hitting prep catcher you'll find in this range of the draft, he does have questions about swing and miss. High school catchers have a steep learning curve in pro ball and switch hitters have it even tougher, so the A's will have to be patient with Fien as he learns the ropes against pro pitching. They're hoping that patience pays off with a potential 25 home run backstop on their hands in the long run. While he's certainly big, Fien moves well behind the plate and has a solid chance to stick there if he keeps up his conditioning and maintains his quickness. If he's forced out, he's not a burner but he may be able to give third base or a corner outfield spot a chance rather than going straight to first base with some solid athleticism.

8-226: SS Davis Diaz, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $237,400. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($12,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #309.
Davis Diaz makes it two A's draftees from Contra Costa County who will be heading inland with the team. Diaz grew up in Pittsburg, about 25 miles northeast of Oakland and about 44 miles southwest of the team's temporary new home in Sacramento, but attended Acalanes High School across the county in Lafayette, just over the ridge from Oakland. A famous high school prospect who had interest in the top three rounds in 2021, he headed east to Vanderbilt instead and spent three years as a starter in Nashville. Despite playing in 182 of Vanderbilt's 185 games over the past three seasons (and all 123 over the past two), he never quite performed like the Commodores hoped and finished his career just a .243/.360/.369 hitter in an era where offense was up across college baseball. Ironically, he actually hit better with wood bats on the Cape last summer (.296/.427/.417) and beyond that, the underlying data points to better performance ahead. He's a disciplined hitter that runs high contact rates that helped him get on base at that .427 clip on the Cape last summer, with a compact 5'11" frame that helps him keep his swing short and direct. While he slugged just .369 over three years and never reached double digit home runs in a season, there's some sneaky pop in the profile when he turns on the ball and he could reach double digit home runs at the major league level at peak. All of the power does go to the pull side. It's not the world's most exciting offensive profile, but it's one with few holes and which could be enough to get him to the bigs in a utility role. Diaz played mostly third base at Vanderbilt but did see some time at shortstop earlier in his career there and played all over the infield on the Cape, and he should have enough glove to man shortstop in a reserve role. It's a quintessential utility infielder profile that can get on base and hold his own at the bottom of the lineup. He got on base but otherwise didn't hit for much impact in his brief pro debut, slashing .226/.397/.283 with a 9/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games at Low A Stockton.

9-256: 3B Jared Sprague-Lott, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $201,300. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($151,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jared Sprague-Lott has long enticed scouts first in the Mid-Atlantic and later in the SEC, earning considerable draft interest a year ago, but the A's managed to get a bargain here by bringing him in for just $50,000. Sprague-Lott spent three years at Richmond, where he leveraged a decorated career into the opportunity to play at Arkansas for his senior season. He held down the starting third base role for most of the season and put up a solid .290/.425/.491 line despite the jump in competition. Sprague-Lott is an on-base machine with a patient approach that he maintained against strong competition in the SEC, and he posted an OBP above .400 all four years of college with a career .431 mark. There's real juice in the bat, too, as he shows plus raw power when he turns on the ball with sneaky high top-end exit velocities. More of a contact type by nature, he prefers to use the whole field and hit for average instead, but that pop is certainly nice to have in your back pocket. The Philadelphia native is a strong defender too, showing very well at the hot corner in Fayetteville after playing all around the infield for Richmond. This is one of the savvier senior signs in the class and Sprague-Lott has a chance to be a real value add as a utility infielder, with the ceiling to do more and play every day if he can tap his power more in games while continuing to get on base. 

11-316: RHP Kyle Robinson, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #208. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #101.
Kyle Robinson earned some early day two interest at times and some publications such as Baseball America held him in that range for their final list, but the A's did well to pick him up to begin day three. A Northern Virginia native who went to high school just down the street from where I live now, he has taken on a larger and larger role at Texas Tech and spent 2024 in the weekend rotation. The fastball sits in the low 90's and peaks at 96, albeit with average life. It's a deep arsenal led by an above average slider with power and late bite, while his curveball is more of a show-me pitch. Robinson also adds an above average changeup with great fade, so he has numerous ways to get hitters out. A mountain of a man at 6'6", 210 pounds, he's very physical right now and could throw harder as he gets into a pro conditioning program. It's a low effort, tall and fall type of delivery that keeps things simple and leads to average command of all of his pitches, as well as plenty of durability. He probably lacks upside because he's not the most explosive arm out there, but he projects well as a #4 or #5 starter if he can miss enough bats with his secondaries and hold his command together. Robinson is also young for the class and was still 20 on draft day, which does add a tick of upside. The A's gave him three appearances at Low A Stockton, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) over seven innings, striking out nine and walking three.

12-346: SS Ali Camarillo, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($100,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #201. MLB Pipeline: #236. Baseball America: #180.
Ali Camarillo is another nice find on day three, signing for a seventh round signing bonus in the process. A Chula Vista native, Camarillo spent two years at Cal State Northridge, where he hit .371 as a sophomore and transferred to Texas A&M for his junior season. Starting every game for the Aggies at shortstop, he was a defensive star with his slick glove, smooth actions, and overall strong feel for the dirt. The arm is closer to average than plus, but with the way he moves over there, it will be plenty to stick at shortstop. At the plate, his skinny 6'1" frame lends itself more to contact than power, and he's indeed a pretty strong contact hitter that gets on base at a solid clip. The power is below average and he'll likely never reach double digit home runs in a season unless he changes his approach, so ultimately it's unlikely that he hits enough to play every day. However, his glove will carry him well up the ladder, so as long as he hits a little bit, he has a very good chance to become a big league utility man.

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

2024 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at pick #10

A year ago, the Nationals took picked second overall and took LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, who in my opinion was the very best player available on draft day. In fact, he's the most impressive hitter I have ever seen at the college level, standing up to such names as Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Andrew Vaughn, Wyatt Langford, and Adley Rutschman. In 2024, the Nationals actually won the draft lottery and the opportunity to pick first overall, but because they picked inside the lottery last year and are a revenue sharing team, they got bumped down to #10.

Mike Rizzo used to have a type. In the past, he leaned heavily on established college starting pitchers like Cade Cavalli, Erick Fedde, and Dane Dunning and buy-low options coming off injuries or other issues like Seth Romero, Mason Denaburg, and Lucas Giolito. Lately, he has pivoted towards prep bats early and took Brady House and Elijah Green in back to back first rounds in 2021 and 2022. Now, with a relatively imbalanced farm system brimming with top-end bats (especially outfield bats) but nearly completely devoid of pitching, it's hard to peg what direction he'll go. If the draft were to be held today, there would be three names Nationals fans could comfortably write off: West Virginia second baseman JJ Wetherholt, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, and Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz. They are more or less the consensus top three players in the draft and are not in a position to make it to #10.

So who does that leave open for the Nationals? Even with those big three bats more or less out of the question unless the underperform this spring, it's still a class chock full of bats, specifically college bats in this range. Would the Nationals want to further add to a position of strength, or try to fill out the bone-dry pitching pipeline? My answer of course is that you never draft for need, and should always draft the best player available, but we'll see what Rizzo chooses to do. There are also a few college arms that look to make sense in that range and you know Rizzo would love to get his hands on one, while a couple of prep bats also figure to hang around that range if we want to go back to that well. Here are ten options, along with their rank on my recent top 40.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
If I were in charge, this is the name I'd have circled. For now, I'm fully on board the Jac Caglianone train should he be available at pick #10, which he very well may be. Caglianone is a two-way player with ridiculous physical ability on both sides of the ball, and once he drops one to focus on the other, he could become a monster (if you don't already consider him one). Standing 6'5", 245 pounds with long arms and legs, he is ridiculously strong and creates as much leverage as anybody. That plays into plus-plus power which helped him set the single season BBCOR-era (since 2011) home run record with 33 bombs in just 71 games, good for a .738 slugging percentage. He can wallop towering moonshots to the pull side or easily clear the left field fence for backside home runs. At the same time, he is one of the most aggressive hitters in college baseball and freely chases, and that attribute may be the key in getting the first nine teams to pass on him. Still, even with the free swinging mentality, he runs solid contact rates and SEC pitchers simply could not get him out last year (.299/.370/.684 in SEC play, chock full of pro-caliber pitching). Should he clean up his approach even just a little, he'd really round out what's looking to be a fearsome future middle of the lineup in DC. However, his future may very well be on the mound, and heaven knows the Nationals need that. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch triple digits with run, further showcasing his freakish physical ability. His slider and changeup are more average to above average pitches rather than plus, but if he gives up hitting to focus on pitching, you can see them taking a step forward. For now, the biggest issue on the mound is his inconsistency in repeating his delivery, as he sometimes looks like he's still growing into his ultra lanky frame. That gives him below average command and creates some reliever risk. Fellow Gator AJ Puk comes to mind as a comp, though Puk had a better breaking ball at this stage.

OF Charlie Condon, Georgia. My rank: #7.
The Nationals have some serious bats coming up through the pipeline, but most of them are right handed beyond James Wood and Daylen Lile. Like Jac Caglianone, Charlie Condon would give them some serious left handed thunder to balance that out. Despite sitting out his 2022 freshman season at Georgia, Condon exploded onto the scene with a massive 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games. He's a hulking presence in the box at 6'6" with man strength, deploying that size into plus-plus raw power that he taps consistently in games without over-swinging. A pretty patient hitter, his approach has played up against high level competition as he demolished SEC pitching last year (.339/.436/.804, 16 HR in 30 games) and struck out just 8% of the time on the Cape over the summer. Still, he does show some swing and miss, especially against quality offspeed stuff, so he'll look to even that out a bit in 2024. If the Nationals were to draft him, they'd have to really believe in his bat, as he'd likely end up a first baseman in this system. He's a fringy runner who plays a reasonably solid corner outfield, but the Nationals have so many outfielders that it's hard to see him beating out guys like Wood, Dylan Crews, Elijah Green, and Robert Hassell from a defensive perspective. I think the bat will profile just fine at first base and he could anchor Nationals lineups for years to come.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #9.
Right now, Chase Burns is looking like the best pitcher available in the draft so there's a very good chance he's gone well before the Nationals pick at #10. However, pitchers are fickle and you never know, and we do know Mike Rizzo would love to balance out the system a bit with a legitimate future ace like Burns. A famous prospect coming out of high school in the Nashville area, he made it to campus at Tennessee and shined for two years before transferring to Wake Forest this year. In high school, he was primarily known for his arm strength and electric stuff, but he has smoothed out his delivery and is looking more and more like a starting pitcher. The stuff is as explosive as ever. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and hit 101 in a pre-spring tuneup for the Demon Deacons, and it shows nice carrying life to boot. However, the triple digit fastball is only his second best pitch. Burns rips off a plus-plus slider around 90 with hard, nasty bite that could strike out major league hitters right now. Now at Wake Forest under the tutelage of renowned pitching coach Corey Muscara, his next step is to continue incorporating his curveball and changeup more into the arsenal, and that's certainly something Rizzo would like to see. While he's still control over command, Burns has been in the zone more and more and projects to stick as a starting pitcher. If the command and changeup can each tick up a half grade or so, he could be a frontline guy.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank #10.
Sure, the Nationals' system is chock full of young outfield prospects. But Konnor Griffin bears so much resemblance to the guys Mike Rizzo has targeted in the past that it's hard to rule him out here. Griffin is by many accounts the top prospect in a down year for high schoolers, on my list clocking in one spot ahead of second place PJ Morlando, who didn't crack this article but would certainly make sense. Griffin was originally a member of the 2025 class, but he would have turned 19 in the middle of his senior season and reclassified to 2024, where he is now age-appropriate. If nothing else, this kid is tooled up. He brings premium physicality and athleticism in an ideal 6'4" frame. That translates into big bat speed and potential plus power from the right side, which he taps consistently against good pitching. He has a long track record of performance despite the reclassification, with plenty of experience against higher level arms. The Mississippi native didn't quite dominate the way some scouts hoped last summer, but he's 17 years old and that's just about the only "hole" in his profile. Griffin's athleticism translates to the field, where his plus speed, plus arm, and shortstop background could make him an above average or better defender in center field. This could represent a less extreme version of Elijah Green if the Nats stick him into their system.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #12.
Hagen Smith isn't quite the prototypical arm that Mike Rizzo likes to target early in the draft, but if Chase Burns is off the board at this point and he still wants to add pitching, it's hard to ignore the loud package Smith brings to the table. Like Burns, he was a very well-known prospect as an East Texas prep in 2021 but made it to campus at Arkansas, where he has continued to elevate his game. Smith's fastball has crept up steadily during his time in Fayetteville. It hovered around 90 and topped out at 95 in high school, but he was consistently in the low 90's early in his college career, reached the upper 90's in short stints as a sophomore, then reportedly touched triple digits in fall practice at the outset of his junior year. It's a running fastball from a lower slot, making it difficult to square up and lift. His slider gives him a second easy plus pitch with late, deep break to seemingly fall off the table and confound hitters. He's added a cutter to play off his fastball, which he is still working on, while his splitter has flashed considerable promise even if it's not the most consistent pitch just yet. Like Burns, Smith has smoothed out his delivery at Arkansas and that, combined with strength gains on his projectable 6'3" frame, has helped him unlock more than a few ticks of velocity. The next step will be command, as he still gets disjointed at times and loses feel for his release point, leading to below average command. Because of that, and because he's bigger and stronger, Burns probably has the better shot to stick in a big league rotation, but Smith is the better athlete and I see him continuing to rocket up prospect lists as he develops. He's also extremely young for a college junior, not turning 21 until a month after the draft, giving him extra time to figure it out. The fastball/slider combination is absolutely electric and I believe he will continue to improve.

RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa. My rank: #14.
Rounding out the big three power arms, all showing electric fastball/slider combinations, is Brody Brecht, the best athlete of the bunch. Like Burns and Smith, he was also a well-known prospect as a prep in the Des Moines area who made it to campus at Iowa, but it wasn't just baseball pulling him to Iowa City. Brecht was also a member of the Hawkeye football team, but as his baseball career has continued to take off, he dropped the gridiron to focus on pitching. Heck, if I could throw as hard as he could, I would too. Brecht sits upper 90's and regularly pops into triple digits, giving him as far as I know the hardest fastball in college baseball. The pitch lacks typical run and ride, rather coming in with some cutting action instead. The velocity is more impressive than the shape, but at 100, you don't need explosive ride. As with Burns and Smith, he rips off a nasty slider that parks around 90 or above with hard, late, two-plane bite. It's a plus-plus pitch. Also like Burns and Smith, Brecht is still working on his curveball and changeup, which aren't quite as loud but still show promise. And like Smith, Brecht has struggled a bit with command. If the Nationals are going to take the risk here, they're going to have to be comfortable with converting his incredible athleticism into more repeatable mechanics without sacrificing the electric stuff. And if Brecht can take a step forward in that regard this spring, he may not be around for the Nationals to pick at #10.

3B Tommy White, Louisiana State. My rank: #15.
Why not make it two years in a row drawing from that elite LSU lineup? It wasn't just Dylan Crews swinging his way to a National Championship by himself, as Tommy White served as his chief protection in the lineup. Crews hit a ridiculous .426/.567/.713, but White wasn't far behind at .374/.432/.725 and both out-slugged him and out-homered him (24 to 18). White is a special hitter, to say the least. He has downright ridiculous hands that enable him to effortlessly fling the barrel through the zone at a high speed, producing plus-plus raw power that has helped him slam 51 home runs in just 121 games in college, good for a career .740 slugging percentage. White can get to the ball anywhere in the zone, even outside of it, and do damage to all fields. He may actually have plus bat to ball skills in addition to his plus-plus power, something you rarely ever see. That said, his main flaw in the box is his approach, as he's extraordinarily aggressive and pro pitchers will take advantage of that. If the Nationals buy the bat at #10, they'll be buying into his extraordinary natural talent in the box while hoping they can coach him to a more selective approach. To foot stomp the importance of doing so, White is a well below average athlete that is unlikely to stick at third base, instead looking at a likely career at first base or DH. If he joins the Nationals' system, he'll be rejoining not only Crews but Elijah Green, whom he teamed with at IMG Academy in Florida.

RHP Levi Sterling, Notre Dame HS [CA]. My rank: #17.
The Nationals haven't selected a prep pitcher in the first round since Mason Denaburg in 2018, though to be fair, Travis Sykora received back of the first round money in the third round in 2023. Levi Sterling isn't quite there yet in terms of pitching his way to the Nationals at #10, but I think he has every opportunity to do so. Hailing from the same Notre Dame High School in Los Angeles that produced Hunter Greene, Giancarlo Stanton, and many others, Sterling only sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out at 94, very modest by today's standards. His secondary arsenal is made up of a sweeping, slurvy curveball around 80, a tighter cutter, and an above average splitter. There's no true out pitches here, but Sterling is extremely projectable at 6'4" and won't turn 18 until after the draft, making him very young for the class. With a free and easy delivery and a virtual guarantee to add significant physicality over the next few years, he should add velocity quickly. Sterling also shows above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, putting him in uncommon territory for a high school pitcher. If Sterling shows even a modest bump in velocity this spring while holding his command and staying healthy, he could tempt Rizzo with the tenth overall pick.

LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke. My rank: #25.
If the draft were today, I don't think Jonathan Santucci would be under consideration. But after missing the final two months of the season in 2023 with elbow problems, a healthy 2024 could easily propel him into the Nationals' sights. Health aside, the profile belongs in the middle of the first round. He sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96 with his fastball, playing up with plenty of riding life. His slider looks like a true plus pitch when he locates it, while his changeup has continued to step forward and looks like it could become a weapon. Santucci's whole arsenal should gain more consistency as he gets more consistent innings, and with a sturdy 6'2" frame and clean, natural actions on the mound, he should be able to stay healthy enough to do so. I could certainly see him pushing himself into the upper tier of college starting pitchers this spring with a healthy spring where he shows three above average to plus pitches with solid command from the left side. And if he does that, Mike Rizzo will be interested.

LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest. My rank: #27.
We'll round out our list with one more college arm. Josh Hartle ranks near the back of the first round on my board but by most accounts fits somewhere in the middle of the first round, meaning he won't have to do much extra to earn consideration at pick #10. Like many names on this list, he was a famous prep in the class of 2021 but pulled himself out of the draft because he was set on attending Wake Forest just across town from where he grew up in the Winston-Salem area. Hartle's polish was immediately evident as he made 14 starts as a true freshman, then he took a big step forward as a sophomore where he was quietly one of the best pitchers in college baseball. The polish will certainly have Rizzo interested. It's a below average fastball sitting in the low 90's and topping at 94 with sinking life, while his two-plane, slurvy curveball gets swings and misses and his changeup looks solid. Everything plays way up though because he shows plus command with both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, missing far more bats than you'd expect (33.4% K rate in 2023) and setting him up well to handle more disciplined pro hitters. Really, it's a very similar profile to Levi Sterling if you flip the handedness, with Hartle having the advantage of an excellent 2023 in the ACC and Sterling having the advantage of being three and a half years younger. Like Sterling, it may only take a small bump up in velocity for Hartle to earn the selection to the Nationals at pick #10.