Dodgers Land Manny Machado

Dodgers get: SS Manny Machado (24 HR, .315/.387/.575, 8 SB, 156 wRC+, Age 26)
Orioles get: 2B Breyvic Valera (0 HR, .172/.273/.172, 0 SB, 34 wRC+, Age 26)
OF Yusniel Diaz (6 HR, .314/.428/.477, 8 SB, 147 wRC+ at AA, Age 21)
RHP Dean Kremer (6-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 125/29 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)
3B Rylan Bannon (20 HR, .296/.402/.559, 4 SB, 159 wRC+ at High A, Age 22)
RHP Zach Pop (1-2, 1.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 47/13 K/BB at Class A and High A, Age 21)

The Orioles are an absolute joke this season at 28-69 heading into the All Star Break, a full 39.5 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The one bright spot, and I mean the one, lone, single bright spot has been Manny Machado, who has been playing like the perennial All Star he always has been but who also is a free agent after the season. When you're 39.5 games back in your division and 30 games back of the second wild card spot, the season is over, and you might as well get some value out of Machado while you can. Meanwhile, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager went down with an elbow injury at the end of April and he won't play again this year. Given LA's prospect depth, that makes them the perfect landing spot for a rental infielder like Machado, who will reportedly see time at both shortstop and third base for the remainder of the season. Through 96 games with the O's this year, he's slashing .315/.387/.575 with 24 home runs, good for a 156 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR. That is a game changing stat line regardless of defensive value, and when you can play a terrific third base and a very decent shortstop to go along with it, that's team-changing. The one knock on Machado has been his very sharp home/road split; playing 48 games apiece, he is slashing .360/.448/.691 with 17 home runs at home and .274/.329/.468 with seven home runs on the road. His strikeout to walk ratios are also drastically different: 21/28 at home and 30/17 on the road. His plate discipline has always been at least somewhat better at home, so maybe he just like's the batters' eye? My guess is most of it is dumb luck and the random nature of statistics in small(ish) sample sizes. While Camden Yards is definitely a hitters' park, its effects aren't that drastic. He'll continue to hit great out west, but maybe his wOBA drops by .010 or .020 or so.

Meanwhile, the Orioles got an array of prospects, but none are more valuable than 21 year old outfielder Yusniel Diaz, around whom the deal is centered. Diaz is a Cuban signee in his third pro season, and he's playing his best baseball by slashing .314/.428/.477 with six home runs and a 39/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games at AA Tulsa. Diaz will never get up into that 20-30 home run range, even in Baltimore, but he's a great athlete that should hit around 15-20 home runs per season in Camden while also getting on base and playing good defense. He shows great plate discipline and sprays line drives around the park, and though his base running could use some work (he has been caught stealing 30 times in 54 attempts in the minor leagues), he's fast. On defense, he could be above average at the outfield corners or hold his own in center field, and he has the upside of a starting outfielder who could get on base at a clip near .400 with that moderate power and good defense. Breyvic Valera is the only one of the quintet to have played in the majors, appearing in five games for the Cardinals in 2017 and 20 more for the Dodgers this year. He hasn't been great in either trial, slashing .154/.250/.154 with no extra base hits for his career, but he's an established minor league bat that should be able to stick as a utility infielder once he translates his success to the majors. In 56 games at AAA Oklahoma City this year, he's hitting a much better .284/.350/.433 with six home runs and a nice 20/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's already 26, but he should be able to help out off the bench. Right handed pitcher Dean Kremer has taken very well to his transition to full-time starting. In 16 starts with High A Rancho Cucamonga in the very hitter-friendly California League, he went 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP,  striking out 114 and walking 26 in 79 innings. Those are fantastic numbers for that league. Upon being promoted to AA Tulsa, he dominated Midland (A's AA) in his first start, tossing seven shutout innings on three hits, three walks, and eleven strikeouts. He was somewhat buried in a deep Dodgers farm system, but in a much more shallow Baltimore system, he has a chance to push his way to the majors as a starting pitcher. You may remember him from the World Baseball Classic, where the Israeli citizen pitched for Team Israel during its improbable run. Third baseman Rylan Bannon has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the eighth round out of Xavier in 2017, slashing .336/.425/.591 in the rookie-level Pioneer League last year before skipping straight to High A Rancho Cucamonga this year. Through 89 games, he is slashing .296/.402/.559 with 20 home runs and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, great numbers even when you account for the boost he's getting from the Cal League. Those numbers are a little inflated and he probably ends up an average hitter at the major league level, though his 14.6% walk rate will really help him maintain value as a guy who can get on base. If he cuts down his strikeouts, he has an outside shot at starting in the Orioles infield down the road. Right hander Zach Pop is a relief prospect that has been exceptional since the Dodgers "popped" him in the seventh round of the 2017 draft out of the University of Kentucky, ranking 135th on my pre-draft list. He was used exclusively as a reliever during his junior year of college, and he took a big step forward when the Dodgers cleaned up his command. Beginning at Class A Great Lakes, he posted a 2.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over eleven appearances, striking out 24 and walking seven in 16.1 innings. When he earned the promotion to High A Rancho Cucamonga in that hitter-friendly Cal League, he seemed to reach another gear, posting a 0.33 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He throws hard, hitting the upper 90's at times, and his slider ranges from loopy meatball to un-hittable. He projects as a middle relief type or set-up man. Overall, the package obviously centers on Diaz and whether he can successfully become an impact player in Baltimore, but there is a lot of depth behind him and at least one or two of the others will likely end up making an impact down the road.

2017 Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

First 5 rounds: Jeren Kendall (1-23), Morgan Cooper (2-62), Connor Wong (3-100), James Marinan (4-130), Riley Ottesen (5-160)
Also notable: Wills Montgomerie (6-190), Zach Pop (7-220), Rylan Bannon (8-250), Donovan Casey (20-610), Preston Grand Pre (24-730)

The Dodgers leaned college this year, taking just two high schoolers in the first 20 rounds and just five overall in 40 rounds. They also played the overslot/underslot game, going underslot in the second round as well as in rounds five through ten to be able to go well overslot in rounds one, four, and eleven. Even though they stuck with the college route, there are some exciting upside players here, most notably first rounder Jeren Kendall and fifth rounder Riley Ottesen.

1-23: CF Jeren Kendall (my rank: 13)
A candidate to go first overall coming into the season, Kendall saw his stock slip this year not because of a change in performance, but because of the lack thereof. Kendall profiles more like a high school prospect in that he has high upside with lots of tools, but also carries a lot of risk. He performed well at Vanderbilt in the tough SEC this year, slashing .307/.372/.556 with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing a quick, powerful swing as well as plus speed and a good arm. Because his speed also plays on defense, he actually has a chance for four plus tools, which is what caused scouts to consider him first overall in the first place, but he has one issue that could hurt him significantly: contact. Teams were hoping that he would improve his strikeout rate from his sophomore year (21.5%), but instead, it actually jumped to 25.1% this year, dwarfing his 8.1% walk rate. He was also a subpar performer in the Cape Cod League, slashing .216/.286/.333 over two years, exacerbating questions about how everything will play up. If the Dodgers can toy with his short swing to improve his contact rate, he could be an All Star. If not, he might just be a fourth outfielder who can do everything but put the bat on the ball. Kendall signed for just under $2.9 million, $194,800 above slot.

2-62: RHP Morgan Cooper (my rank: 69)
Cooper missed the 2015 season, which would have been his sophomore year at Texas, with Tommy John surgery, and his stuff didn't bounce back fully in 2016. However, it did in 2017, as the Longhorn ace went 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 110 batters in 89.1 innings. As a starter, he throws in the low to mid 90's, adding a slider and curveball with some good shape, as well as a changeup that has improved. He hasn't proven he has the durability to start for a full MLB season and he may end up as a reliever, but for now he has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter who can move fairly quickly. Cooper signed for $867,500, which is $150,700 below slot.

3-100: C Connor Wong (my rank: 87)
Wong doesn't quite fit the typical catcher mold, coming in at a skinny 5'10" and showing above average speed on the base paths. Still, he slashed .287/.379/.494 with 12 home runs at Houston this year, also seeing time in the infield in addition to behind the plate. He also performed well on the Cape last summer, slashing .313/.354/.442 over 41 games, and with his quick swing, I like his chances to reach the majors. He's not all that dissimilar to current Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes, as even if Wong doesn't show enough arm strength to stay behind the plate, he could play second base in LA. He signed for $547,500, which is $10,400 over slot.

4-130: RHP James Marinan (my rank: 81)
Marinan was a pop-up prospect this year, coming out throwing in the low to mid 90's from a projectable 6'5" frame, though he hasn't proven that his secondaries are anything special. The south Florida high schooler has hit 96 on the gun, his slider is sharp at times, and he has a high ceiling as a #2 starter. The lack of a track record and proven secondary offerings though make him a risky pick. Marinan signed for $822,500, which is $421,500 above slot.

5-160: RHP Riley Ottesen (my rank: 147)
Ottesen started college at Utah two years late due to his Mormon mission in Japan, then wasn't anything special as a draft-eligible freshman in 2016 (2-2, 6.38 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). He took a step forward in 2017, and although he didn't dominate, he went 5-4 with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, striking out 72 and walking 33 in 95 innings. He can hit the mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary offerings are coming along, but he turns 23 in October and hasn't really put up any inspiring numbers in the Pac-12. He's likely a future reliever, and the Dodgers have a track record of turning random guys into successful MLB relief pitchers (Kenley Jansen, Grant Dayton). Ottesen signed for $197,500, which is $101,800 below slot.

7-220: RHP Zach Pop (my rank: 135)
Pop is an interesting college arm, standing 6'4" and coming from the University of Kentucky. Pop was decent this year, putting up a 3.48 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP while striking out 20 in 20.2 innings out of the Wildcats bullpen, but it's the stuff that scouts love. Pop can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a hard, if at times loopy, slider. If the Dodgers can tighten up that slider and get it more consistent, he'll easily have two major league pitches to use out of the LA bullpen. His problem, however, is command. He throws with a high effort delivery, and his three quarters arm slot is difficult to repeat, and it led to him walking 14 batters in those 20.2 innings this year. Best case scenario, the Dodgers get a set-up man in the seventh round. Worst case scenario, Pop never reaches the majors and walks everybody he faces. He signed for $147,500, which is $34,700 below slot.

Others: 6th rounder Wills Montgomerie comes from UConn, where he had a successful three year career as a starter (15-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) despite being overshadowed by Anthony Kay and Tim Cate in that Husky rotation. A Cape performer (2-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 28/10 K/BB), he has inconsistent fastball velocity that can reach 95 at times, but also sometimes sits closer to 90. With a decent slider and inconsistent command, he's probably best off in the bullpen, where he could race Ottesen and Pop to the majors. 8th rounder Rylan Bannon had a breakout year at Xavier this year, slashing .339/.449/.633 with 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 61 games, and he's a pretty good infield defender as well. He played third base for the Musketeers, but he may also fit well at second base, his high school position, and projects as a utility man going forward. He signed for $122,500, which is $28,900 below slot. He has also gotten off to a hot start in the Pioneer League, slashing .438/.471/.781 through eight games for Rookie level Ogden. 20th rounder Donovan Casey probably won't sign and will instead return to Boston College for his senior year, where the two-way star could build on one or both of his skillsets. He was considered a better prospect as a hitter this year despite slashing just .286/.370/.362 with two home runs, as he shows above average raw power in batting practice with good whipping action on the barrel. His power has never translated into games, though, as he has difficulty with contact and with squaring the ball up. As a pitcher, he went 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP out of the bullpen, and he could wind up drafted as a pitcher next year. 24th rounder Preston Grand Pre isn't the most exciting prospect on this list, but he has one of the top baseball names in the draft and slashed .325/.400/.425 for Cal this year. He shows little to no power as well as little ability to draw a walk (6.5%), but he has good enough bat to ball skills and will try to work his way up as a light hitting utility man.