First Tier: Mark Vientos, Jeter Downs, M.J. Melendez
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson
If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.
Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.
Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.
Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.
Showing posts with label Draft Demographics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft Demographics. Show all posts
Monday, June 12, 2017
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: SEC Arms
1st Tier: Kyle Wright, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Alex Lange, Tanner Houck, Clarke Schmidt, Wil Crowe, Corbin Martin
3rd Tier: Blaine Knight, Bryce Montes de Oca, Trevor Stephan, Tyler Johnson
Others: Keegan Thompson, Zach Pop
The SEC, or the Southeastern Conference, is baseball's premier college conference, including South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. More than anything, the SEC is known for producing high quality arms, recently David Price (Vanderbilt), Max Scherzer (Missouri), Dallas Keuchel (Arkansas), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), and Drew Pomeranz (Ole Miss) among many, many others. Aside from the track record, one reason teams love SEC arms is that the pitchers get tested against the highest levels of collegiate competition, giving teams the best idea of how they'll perform going forward. Since all of these players play in the same conference and are therefore mostly context-neutral, I included their 2017 stats in each tier.
Admittedly, I'm just sort of making excuses to write about and compare different sets of players at this point, and this is of no offense to the ACC, led by powerhouses Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia, among others (somewhere in the distance, my own mediocre baseball school in the ACC, Virginia Tech, screams for a mention).
Tier I (Wright, Faedo)
Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt): 5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB
Alex Faedo (Florida): 7-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123/34 K/BB
Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo were roughly equal coming into the season, and my slight preference for Wright turned out to be correct (so far) as the Vanderbilt ace has pushed himself to the very top of the draft. In fact, he has an excellent chance of going first overall to the Twins. Wright throws in the low to mid 90's with a devastating curveball/slider combination and a solid changeup. He has arguably the best combination of floor (#4 starter or set-up man/closer) and ceiling (ace) in this draft, though teams would have liked to see the 6'4" righty dominate the SEC just a little bit more, and he got roughed up against #1 ranked Oregon State yesterday. Factoring in Wright's tough final start against Oregon State (his ERA was below 3.00 beforehand), Faedo actually put up better numbers, but he'll almost certainly be the second SEC arm drafted. After knee surgeries in the fall, his stuff took a while to bounce back, but he sits in the low 90's with arguably the best slider in the draft class. The 6'5" righty has a more durable but less projectable build than Wright, and like his Vanderbilt counterpart, the Gator ace has a long track record of success in the SEC. While he won't go first overall, he could hear his name in the top ten and almost certainly in the top 20.
Tier II (Lange, Houck, Schmidt, Crowe, Martin)
Alex Lange (LSU): 9-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 124/34 K/BB
Tanner Houck (Missouri): 4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB
Clarke Schmidt (South Carolina): 4-2, 1.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 70/18 K/BB
Wil Crowe (South Carolina): 6-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 90/31 K/BB
Corbin Martin (Texas A&M): 7-3, 2.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 87/36 K/BB
Alex Lange's draft stock is still riding the momentum of his insane freshman season (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and he is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft class. While many rankings have dropped him from the top 20 or even the top 30, he remains at #16 for me because I love his combination of SEC performance and solid arsenal. He throws in the low to mid 90's with one of the best curveballs in the class, and his changeup even has plus potential. Control has held him back when he fails to come back on-line with his deceptive but inefficient delivery, an it is what keeps him out of the top half of the first round conversation. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck has experienced falling stock for most of the spring, coming in as a potential top ten pick and likely finishing as a late first rounder. He can pump his plus to plus-plus fastball into the upper 90's, but he's sat more in the low 90's this spring, which is troublesome because he lacks a true put-away offspeed pitch. Combine that with an atypical delivery, and many project him as a future reliever, though he does have surprisingly good command. If you take a look at Clarke Schmidt's stats, you can see that he was positioning himself as a possible top ten pick, but he blew out his elbow and is now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That said, the stuff is pretty great, as you'd expect from the numbers. He rolls a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a solid slider/curveball combination, giving him plenty of weapons against today's Fly Ball Revolution. Teams have shown more and more willingness to draft pitchers after going under the knife, but Schmidt already had durability questions before the injury and this only raises more question marks. His teammate, Wil Crowe, had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss his junior year, but he's back as a redshirt junior and has pitched well enough to be drafted in the first two rounds. Unlike the 6'1", 200 lb Schmidt, Crowe is a big boy at 6'2", 250 lbs. He should be more durable and is a safer bet to reach the majors, though his upside his much lower. Corbin Martin is a fairly polarizing prospect, as he has great stuff and pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last year, but he never was was able to perform in the SEC until this year. In relief, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, but it is more low to mid 90's as a starter. His curveball is a plus pitch and he has a solid slider too, and with a decent changeup, the only thing missing is command; after walking 5.89 and 7.18 per nine innings in his first two seasons, he dropped that number to 3.98 in 2017, but it is still very high and leads many to believe he'll end up back in the bullpen.
Tier III (Knight, Montes de Oca, Stephan, Johnson)
Blaine Knight (Arkansas): 8-4, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96/20 K/BB
Bryce Montes de Oca (Missouri): 4-5, 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 61/42 K/BB
Trevor Stephan (Arkansas): 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 120/20 K/BB
Tyler Johnson (South Carolina): 1-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB
Blaine Knight is a draft eligible sophomore at Arkansas, turning 21 later this month. At 6'3" 165 lbs, he has one of the skinniest frames in this class, and could use to add some good weight. Where he's at now is pretty good, too, as he uses his well-located solid fastball/slider combo to get outs in bunches. All he has to do to guarantee starting is to continue developing his changeup and proving his durability, as he has most of the tools needed to be a mid-rotation force. Bryce Montes de Oca has a unique profile: standing at 6'7" and weighing 265 lbs, he's one of the biggest players in this class, and his heavily sinking fastball can hit 100 out of the bullpen. He has massive command problems as well as a medical history, and to top it all off, he has one of the coolest names in the draft. Those are the basics. Montes de Oca has been used as a starter for Missouri this season, though most, including myself, see him as a reliever at the next level, where he can blow hitters away with his velocity and hard curveball. He's among the riskiest picks in the college ranks, though, because he made just eight appearances over his first two seasons due to injuries, and he has walked 42 batters in 61 innings this season, showing almost no feel for locating pitches. Knight's Arkansas teammate, Trevor Stephan, has been an instant hit in Fayetteville, as the numbers show. Like Knight, he throws and locates a low to mid 90's fastball, but his secondary stuff lags behind his teammate's. His hard slider and decent changeup have been enough to get hitters out in the SEC, which is certainly saying something, but they'll both need to improve if he wants to cut it as a reliever at the higher levels. Tyler Johnson, a teammate of Schmidt's and Crowe's at South Carolina, is already a reliever. He runs his upper 90's fastball to both sides of the plate, and his decent slider has helped him dominate as the Gamecocks' closer. He did miss time with a sore arm this season, which caused him to be inconsistent even when he was on the mound and also hurt his command.
Others (stats only)
Keegan Thompson (Auburn): 7-4, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 75/17 K/BB
Zach Pop (Kentucky): 1-1, 3.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20/13 K/BB
2nd Tier: Alex Lange, Tanner Houck, Clarke Schmidt, Wil Crowe, Corbin Martin
3rd Tier: Blaine Knight, Bryce Montes de Oca, Trevor Stephan, Tyler Johnson
Others: Keegan Thompson, Zach Pop
The SEC, or the Southeastern Conference, is baseball's premier college conference, including South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. More than anything, the SEC is known for producing high quality arms, recently David Price (Vanderbilt), Max Scherzer (Missouri), Dallas Keuchel (Arkansas), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), and Drew Pomeranz (Ole Miss) among many, many others. Aside from the track record, one reason teams love SEC arms is that the pitchers get tested against the highest levels of collegiate competition, giving teams the best idea of how they'll perform going forward. Since all of these players play in the same conference and are therefore mostly context-neutral, I included their 2017 stats in each tier.
Admittedly, I'm just sort of making excuses to write about and compare different sets of players at this point, and this is of no offense to the ACC, led by powerhouses Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia, among others (somewhere in the distance, my own mediocre baseball school in the ACC, Virginia Tech, screams for a mention).
Tier I (Wright, Faedo)
Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt): 5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB
Alex Faedo (Florida): 7-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123/34 K/BB
Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo were roughly equal coming into the season, and my slight preference for Wright turned out to be correct (so far) as the Vanderbilt ace has pushed himself to the very top of the draft. In fact, he has an excellent chance of going first overall to the Twins. Wright throws in the low to mid 90's with a devastating curveball/slider combination and a solid changeup. He has arguably the best combination of floor (#4 starter or set-up man/closer) and ceiling (ace) in this draft, though teams would have liked to see the 6'4" righty dominate the SEC just a little bit more, and he got roughed up against #1 ranked Oregon State yesterday. Factoring in Wright's tough final start against Oregon State (his ERA was below 3.00 beforehand), Faedo actually put up better numbers, but he'll almost certainly be the second SEC arm drafted. After knee surgeries in the fall, his stuff took a while to bounce back, but he sits in the low 90's with arguably the best slider in the draft class. The 6'5" righty has a more durable but less projectable build than Wright, and like his Vanderbilt counterpart, the Gator ace has a long track record of success in the SEC. While he won't go first overall, he could hear his name in the top ten and almost certainly in the top 20.
Tier II (Lange, Houck, Schmidt, Crowe, Martin)
Alex Lange (LSU): 9-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 124/34 K/BB
Tanner Houck (Missouri): 4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB
Clarke Schmidt (South Carolina): 4-2, 1.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 70/18 K/BB
Wil Crowe (South Carolina): 6-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 90/31 K/BB
Corbin Martin (Texas A&M): 7-3, 2.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 87/36 K/BB
Alex Lange's draft stock is still riding the momentum of his insane freshman season (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and he is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft class. While many rankings have dropped him from the top 20 or even the top 30, he remains at #16 for me because I love his combination of SEC performance and solid arsenal. He throws in the low to mid 90's with one of the best curveballs in the class, and his changeup even has plus potential. Control has held him back when he fails to come back on-line with his deceptive but inefficient delivery, an it is what keeps him out of the top half of the first round conversation. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck has experienced falling stock for most of the spring, coming in as a potential top ten pick and likely finishing as a late first rounder. He can pump his plus to plus-plus fastball into the upper 90's, but he's sat more in the low 90's this spring, which is troublesome because he lacks a true put-away offspeed pitch. Combine that with an atypical delivery, and many project him as a future reliever, though he does have surprisingly good command. If you take a look at Clarke Schmidt's stats, you can see that he was positioning himself as a possible top ten pick, but he blew out his elbow and is now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That said, the stuff is pretty great, as you'd expect from the numbers. He rolls a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a solid slider/curveball combination, giving him plenty of weapons against today's Fly Ball Revolution. Teams have shown more and more willingness to draft pitchers after going under the knife, but Schmidt already had durability questions before the injury and this only raises more question marks. His teammate, Wil Crowe, had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss his junior year, but he's back as a redshirt junior and has pitched well enough to be drafted in the first two rounds. Unlike the 6'1", 200 lb Schmidt, Crowe is a big boy at 6'2", 250 lbs. He should be more durable and is a safer bet to reach the majors, though his upside his much lower. Corbin Martin is a fairly polarizing prospect, as he has great stuff and pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last year, but he never was was able to perform in the SEC until this year. In relief, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, but it is more low to mid 90's as a starter. His curveball is a plus pitch and he has a solid slider too, and with a decent changeup, the only thing missing is command; after walking 5.89 and 7.18 per nine innings in his first two seasons, he dropped that number to 3.98 in 2017, but it is still very high and leads many to believe he'll end up back in the bullpen.
Tier III (Knight, Montes de Oca, Stephan, Johnson)
Blaine Knight (Arkansas): 8-4, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96/20 K/BB
Bryce Montes de Oca (Missouri): 4-5, 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 61/42 K/BB
Trevor Stephan (Arkansas): 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 120/20 K/BB
Tyler Johnson (South Carolina): 1-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB
Blaine Knight is a draft eligible sophomore at Arkansas, turning 21 later this month. At 6'3" 165 lbs, he has one of the skinniest frames in this class, and could use to add some good weight. Where he's at now is pretty good, too, as he uses his well-located solid fastball/slider combo to get outs in bunches. All he has to do to guarantee starting is to continue developing his changeup and proving his durability, as he has most of the tools needed to be a mid-rotation force. Bryce Montes de Oca has a unique profile: standing at 6'7" and weighing 265 lbs, he's one of the biggest players in this class, and his heavily sinking fastball can hit 100 out of the bullpen. He has massive command problems as well as a medical history, and to top it all off, he has one of the coolest names in the draft. Those are the basics. Montes de Oca has been used as a starter for Missouri this season, though most, including myself, see him as a reliever at the next level, where he can blow hitters away with his velocity and hard curveball. He's among the riskiest picks in the college ranks, though, because he made just eight appearances over his first two seasons due to injuries, and he has walked 42 batters in 61 innings this season, showing almost no feel for locating pitches. Knight's Arkansas teammate, Trevor Stephan, has been an instant hit in Fayetteville, as the numbers show. Like Knight, he throws and locates a low to mid 90's fastball, but his secondary stuff lags behind his teammate's. His hard slider and decent changeup have been enough to get hitters out in the SEC, which is certainly saying something, but they'll both need to improve if he wants to cut it as a reliever at the higher levels. Tyler Johnson, a teammate of Schmidt's and Crowe's at South Carolina, is already a reliever. He runs his upper 90's fastball to both sides of the plate, and his decent slider has helped him dominate as the Gamecocks' closer. He did miss time with a sore arm this season, which caused him to be inconsistent even when he was on the mound and also hurt his command.
Others (stats only)
Keegan Thompson (Auburn): 7-4, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 75/17 K/BB
Zach Pop (Kentucky): 1-1, 3.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20/13 K/BB
2017 Draft Demographics: Catchers
First Tier: Nobody
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
2017 Draft Demographics: College Hitters With No Standout Tool
1st Tier: Adam Haseley, Keston Hiura
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Power Hitters
First Tier: Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, Jeren Kendall
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Friday, June 9, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Safe Bet College Starters
1st Tier: Brendan McKay, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: High Ceiling HS Pitchers
First Tier: Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Shane Baz
Second Tier: DL Hall, Sam Carlson, Trevor Rogers, Blayne Enlow, Matt Sauer, Hans Crouse
Third Tier: Alex Scherff, Joe Perez, Jake Eder, Landon Leach, James Marinan, Caden Lemons, Bryce Bonnin
Others: C.J. Van Eyk, Gavin Williams, Jackson Rutledge, Nick Storz, Daniel Ritcheson, Cade Cavalli
Sticking with the high ceiling theme, let's look at the one thing more risky than a toolsy high school hitter: a raw high school pitcher. Now, not all of these guys are raw, especially in the first and second tiers, but some of those guys in the "others" section basically just throw fastballs at this point. This list encompasses most high school pitchers, but I'm focusing on ceiling here so I left out the Hagen Danners and Tanner Burns's to focus on those who could legitimately be top of the rotation forces. Of course, most of these guys won't ever be impact arms on an MLB staff, but then again, some may win Cy Young Awards.
Tier I (Greene, Gore, Baz)
We all agree that Hunter Greene is the top talent in this class. He has the best chance on this list to be an ace, coming in with easy upper 90's velocity and some secondaries that flash plus. No other high schoolers in this draft can match his velocity, and unlike the guys further down the list that come close, he has solid pitchability. MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz aren't the same pitcher, but the deeper you look, the more similarities you find with them. Both began the season on the fringes of the first round conversation, but have positioned themselves to easily go in the top half of the first round. Scouts love both of their competitive spirits, and both are armed with low to mid 90's fastballs that they can bump up to 97. With full arsenals, they easily project as starters, though Gore commands his pitches better and has the advantage of being left handed. Gore also has a higher ceiling due to his more raw mechanics, and will likely go about five or so picks ahead of Baz, but you can't go wrong with either of these guys.
Tier II (Hall, Carlson, Rogers, Enlow, Sauer, Crouse)
Standing at 6'1", DL Hall is the second shortest guy on this list ahead of only the 6' Bryce Bonnin, but with his small frame, he fits into the "undersized lefty" demographic, which doesn't typically have a high ceiling. However, Hall can absolutely bring it, coming in in the low to mid 90's with arguably the best curveball in the class. As a long-established prospect, he's very different from the other high ceiling arm that sits right next to him on overall big board, Sam Carlson. A Minnesota product, Carlson surprised everybody by adding 5 MPH to his fastball this spring, now sitting in the mid 90's, with a power slider and a surprisingly good changeup for a cold weather high schooler. He commands it all from a 6'4" frame, giving him a higher floor than most prep arms. Trevor Rogers and Blayne Enlow share a lot of similarities despite different handedness. The 6'6" Rogers will likely go a little before the 6'4" Enlow because he is left handed, though both saw their draft stock dip a bit this spring with decreased velocity. Rogers throws a little harder, in the low 90's, while Enlow sits around 90, but Enlow's excellent curveball, which rivals that of Hall, is more advanced than Rogers' decent slider. Both are projection plays, as it's easy to envision both getting into the mid 90's when they fill out their projectable frames and clean up their mechanics, with Rogers having more work to do than Enlow. The 6'4" Matt Sauer and the 6'5" Hans Crouse both look like relievers at this point, with tall frames and high effort deliveries. Both throw very hard and project to be drafted in the same range, 25-35ish, so teams considering one are bound to be considering the other at the same time. Crouse's skinnier frame is a little bit more projectable, and he sits in the mid 90's a little bit more consistently than Sauer. That said, Sauer's slider is a little better than Crouse's curveball. If they both end up relievers, I think Crouse will be the better pitcher, but I am more optimistic about Sauer's ability to stick in a starting rotation. He has a thicker build and a very different pitching motion from Crouse. While Crouse generates his velocity by leaning back and then short-arming his delivery, Sauer does so by the sheer strength of his arm and by extending his long arms (it's important to note that Crouse has similar arm strength and long arms). I think Sauer's delivery is inefficient, and cleaning it up/getting him more on line to the plate can pay huge dividends. In contrast, I don't see much a team can do to tinker with Crouse's delivery without changing his entire profile as a pitcher, so he's probably best being left as he is with some minor adjustments. Because of all of this, I rank Sauer a few spots higher than Crouse, but it wouldn't be unjustifiable to take Crouse first.
Tier III (Scherff, Perez, Eder, Leach, Marinan, Lemons, Bonnin)
Alex Scherff is an interesting pitcher. He's a full year older than the typical high school senior, and he has transferred high schools three times, pitching at three different schools in his first three years of high school before transferring back to the original one for his senior year. It all adds up to a very weird profile before he even steps on the mound, but the stuff is premium. A shorter righty at 6'2", he can run his riding fastball into the mid 90's deep into starts, and his full arsenal is highlighted by an excellent changeup, possibly the best in this high school draft class. His slider and curveball need work, but the slider does have some late bite, and he could be a mid rotation starter if it all comes together. I'm going to skip around and compare Joe Perez to James Marinan, both of whom are projectable right handers who pitch in south Florida. They also both popped onto scouts radars this season, quite literally as Marinan found a mid 90's fastball and Perez touched the upper 90's. They both have a lot of work to do on their offspeeds, though Marinan's curveball is coming along well and he has a better chance of sticking in a starting rotation. Perez is more of a projection play because he only started pitching recently, and he is also the second youngest player in the entire list of potential top 100 picks, trailing only fellow south Floridan Mark Vientos by three days. Perez's ceiling easily fits in with Tier II, but the distance he has to get there keeps him in Tier III. Jake Eder and Caden Lemons can be compared to each other as tall, projectable picks with terrible mechanics. The 6'4" Eder and the 6'6" Lemons can both sit in the low 90's easily. Both will need complete overhauls of their mechanics, but being able to do what they do as it is is pretty incredible. Eder's mechanics are simply all over the place, while Lemons looks like he's just walking up to the mound and throwing the ball. 6'4" Canadian Landon Leach has similar stuff to Eder, though he is right handed and has a cleaner delivery. He's a safer bet, but also probably has a lower ceiling. Lastly, Bryce Bonnin has a devastating fastball/slider combo, sitting in the low to mid 90's depending on when you see him and throwing hitters off with that nasty slider. He may profile best as a reliever down the road due to his shorter stature (he's 6') and inconsistencies with being able to maintain his command. If he does end up in the bullpen, he has the kind of stuff that can play up there and be very valuable.
Second Tier: DL Hall, Sam Carlson, Trevor Rogers, Blayne Enlow, Matt Sauer, Hans Crouse
Third Tier: Alex Scherff, Joe Perez, Jake Eder, Landon Leach, James Marinan, Caden Lemons, Bryce Bonnin
Others: C.J. Van Eyk, Gavin Williams, Jackson Rutledge, Nick Storz, Daniel Ritcheson, Cade Cavalli
Sticking with the high ceiling theme, let's look at the one thing more risky than a toolsy high school hitter: a raw high school pitcher. Now, not all of these guys are raw, especially in the first and second tiers, but some of those guys in the "others" section basically just throw fastballs at this point. This list encompasses most high school pitchers, but I'm focusing on ceiling here so I left out the Hagen Danners and Tanner Burns's to focus on those who could legitimately be top of the rotation forces. Of course, most of these guys won't ever be impact arms on an MLB staff, but then again, some may win Cy Young Awards.
Tier I (Greene, Gore, Baz)
We all agree that Hunter Greene is the top talent in this class. He has the best chance on this list to be an ace, coming in with easy upper 90's velocity and some secondaries that flash plus. No other high schoolers in this draft can match his velocity, and unlike the guys further down the list that come close, he has solid pitchability. MacKenzie Gore and Shane Baz aren't the same pitcher, but the deeper you look, the more similarities you find with them. Both began the season on the fringes of the first round conversation, but have positioned themselves to easily go in the top half of the first round. Scouts love both of their competitive spirits, and both are armed with low to mid 90's fastballs that they can bump up to 97. With full arsenals, they easily project as starters, though Gore commands his pitches better and has the advantage of being left handed. Gore also has a higher ceiling due to his more raw mechanics, and will likely go about five or so picks ahead of Baz, but you can't go wrong with either of these guys.
Tier II (Hall, Carlson, Rogers, Enlow, Sauer, Crouse)
Standing at 6'1", DL Hall is the second shortest guy on this list ahead of only the 6' Bryce Bonnin, but with his small frame, he fits into the "undersized lefty" demographic, which doesn't typically have a high ceiling. However, Hall can absolutely bring it, coming in in the low to mid 90's with arguably the best curveball in the class. As a long-established prospect, he's very different from the other high ceiling arm that sits right next to him on overall big board, Sam Carlson. A Minnesota product, Carlson surprised everybody by adding 5 MPH to his fastball this spring, now sitting in the mid 90's, with a power slider and a surprisingly good changeup for a cold weather high schooler. He commands it all from a 6'4" frame, giving him a higher floor than most prep arms. Trevor Rogers and Blayne Enlow share a lot of similarities despite different handedness. The 6'6" Rogers will likely go a little before the 6'4" Enlow because he is left handed, though both saw their draft stock dip a bit this spring with decreased velocity. Rogers throws a little harder, in the low 90's, while Enlow sits around 90, but Enlow's excellent curveball, which rivals that of Hall, is more advanced than Rogers' decent slider. Both are projection plays, as it's easy to envision both getting into the mid 90's when they fill out their projectable frames and clean up their mechanics, with Rogers having more work to do than Enlow. The 6'4" Matt Sauer and the 6'5" Hans Crouse both look like relievers at this point, with tall frames and high effort deliveries. Both throw very hard and project to be drafted in the same range, 25-35ish, so teams considering one are bound to be considering the other at the same time. Crouse's skinnier frame is a little bit more projectable, and he sits in the mid 90's a little bit more consistently than Sauer. That said, Sauer's slider is a little better than Crouse's curveball. If they both end up relievers, I think Crouse will be the better pitcher, but I am more optimistic about Sauer's ability to stick in a starting rotation. He has a thicker build and a very different pitching motion from Crouse. While Crouse generates his velocity by leaning back and then short-arming his delivery, Sauer does so by the sheer strength of his arm and by extending his long arms (it's important to note that Crouse has similar arm strength and long arms). I think Sauer's delivery is inefficient, and cleaning it up/getting him more on line to the plate can pay huge dividends. In contrast, I don't see much a team can do to tinker with Crouse's delivery without changing his entire profile as a pitcher, so he's probably best being left as he is with some minor adjustments. Because of all of this, I rank Sauer a few spots higher than Crouse, but it wouldn't be unjustifiable to take Crouse first.
Tier III (Scherff, Perez, Eder, Leach, Marinan, Lemons, Bonnin)
Alex Scherff is an interesting pitcher. He's a full year older than the typical high school senior, and he has transferred high schools three times, pitching at three different schools in his first three years of high school before transferring back to the original one for his senior year. It all adds up to a very weird profile before he even steps on the mound, but the stuff is premium. A shorter righty at 6'2", he can run his riding fastball into the mid 90's deep into starts, and his full arsenal is highlighted by an excellent changeup, possibly the best in this high school draft class. His slider and curveball need work, but the slider does have some late bite, and he could be a mid rotation starter if it all comes together. I'm going to skip around and compare Joe Perez to James Marinan, both of whom are projectable right handers who pitch in south Florida. They also both popped onto scouts radars this season, quite literally as Marinan found a mid 90's fastball and Perez touched the upper 90's. They both have a lot of work to do on their offspeeds, though Marinan's curveball is coming along well and he has a better chance of sticking in a starting rotation. Perez is more of a projection play because he only started pitching recently, and he is also the second youngest player in the entire list of potential top 100 picks, trailing only fellow south Floridan Mark Vientos by three days. Perez's ceiling easily fits in with Tier II, but the distance he has to get there keeps him in Tier III. Jake Eder and Caden Lemons can be compared to each other as tall, projectable picks with terrible mechanics. The 6'4" Eder and the 6'6" Lemons can both sit in the low 90's easily. Both will need complete overhauls of their mechanics, but being able to do what they do as it is is pretty incredible. Eder's mechanics are simply all over the place, while Lemons looks like he's just walking up to the mound and throwing the ball. 6'4" Canadian Landon Leach has similar stuff to Eder, though he is right handed and has a cleaner delivery. He's a safer bet, but also probably has a lower ceiling. Lastly, Bryce Bonnin has a devastating fastball/slider combo, sitting in the low to mid 90's depending on when you see him and throwing hitters off with that nasty slider. He may profile best as a reliever down the road due to his shorter stature (he's 6') and inconsistencies with being able to maintain his command. If he does end up in the bullpen, he has the kind of stuff that can play up there and be very valuable.
Thursday, June 8, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: Toolsy Prep Hitters
First Tier: Royce Lewis, Austin Beck, Jordon Adell
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
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