First Tier: Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, Jeren Kendall
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
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