2020 Awards Picks: MVP's and Cy Young's

If I were given a vote, below would be my picks for the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Awards.

AL MVP: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
I think most people would prefer to choose a hitter as an MVP, but in a year in which not one American League hitter put up a 1.000 OPS while staying healthy for the whole two months, the door was opened for Shane Bieber and his unbelievable season. With all due respect to strong seasons from Jose Ramirez, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, and of course Mike Trout, it's a pretty easy pick for me to choose Bieber. Bieber led all AL pitchers in wins, ERA, and strikeouts and had the second best WHIP, and he did so with the second most innings in the league. With Francisco Lindor stumbling to a .258/.335/.415 slash line, the Indians really struggled to score runs with a lineup that saw only Ramirez break even an .800 OPS. The Tribe could not afford bad starts this year, and Bieber went at least five innings and allowed no more than three runs in each of his twelve starts. In fact, he allowed zero or one earned runs in seven of his twelve starts, putting even a futile Cleveland offense in position to win every single time he took the mound. And without his contributions, they would have been no better than a seven or eight seed, rather than the four seed they ended up with. The crowning achievement of his season likely came in just his second start, when he limited the eventual AL Central champion Twins to three baserunners over eight shutout innings while striking out thirteen.

Runner-Up: 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 17 HR, .292/.386/.607, 10 SB, 163 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR in 58 games.
Behind Shane Bieber, the AL MVP race is pretty jumbled, with five players finishing with an OPS between .987 and 1.011, none of which were particularly standout defenders. Jose Ramirez didn't actually lead the league in anything besides his 3.4 fWAR and 45 runs scored, but instead, was simply Very Good in lots of areas. He finished second in OPS (.993), third in home runs (17), doubles (16), RBI (46), and slugging percentage (.607), fifth in wRC+ (163) and stolen bases (10), and sixth in on-base percentage (.386). On an Indians team that absolutely could not hit, he was the only player with above an .800 OPS and essentially carried the entire offense. Bieber shut down the AL and NL Central divisions on his own, but when he wasn't on the mound, Ramirez was often tasked with single-handedly keeping pace with the Twins, White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals offenses. His numbers need a slight asterisk because he wasn't facing the most difficult schedule in the Central division, but with good defense and baserunning ability that could not be matched by anybody in his realm of the MVP range, in addition to playing in all but two of the Indians' games, he still gets the edge.

Honorable Mention: OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 17 HR, .281/.390/.603, 1 SB, 164 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 53 games.
If Mike Trout hadn't missed a few games for the birth of his son, I think he would clearly have the third spot, but at this point it's so close that I wouldn't argue with DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, or even Anthony Rendon in this spot. Trout gets the slight edge because even though he only played in 53 games (T-45th in the AL), he still collected 241 plate appearances that had him tied for 15th in the league. Throw in 17 home runs and nearly a .400 on-base percentage, and you're pretty darn close to an MVP, never mind that his .993 OPS was actually below his 1.000 career OPS. Even in what wasn't his best season (and missing a few games), the best player in the world finished third in the league in home runs (17), RBI (46), and wRC+ (164), fourth in on-base percentage (.390), slugging (.603), and runs scored (41), and fifth in fWAR (2.6). He and guys like Rendon, Dylan Bundy, and David Fletcher did all they could to keep the Angels in the playoff hunt, but their extreme lack of depth cost them as they stumbled to a 26-34 record, three games out of a postseason spot.

Others: 2B DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 2.7 fWAR), 1B Jose Abreu (CWS, 2.7 fWAR), 3B Anthony Rendon (LAA, 2.8 fWAR), Kenta Maeda (MIN, 2.70 ERA), Gerrit Cole (NYY, 2.84 ERA)

NL MVP: 1B Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 13 HR, .341/.462/.640, 2 SB, 187 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR in 60 games.
To me, it's very very close between Freeman and Fernando Tatis, but Freeman just barely gets the edge because of his absolute dominance at the plate. The Braves' rotation was decimated by injuries and other problems in 2020, throwing their status as the NL's consensus second best team in doubt. But Freeman, combined with Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuña, made sure that runs were never really an issue and that they could win any slugfest. Freeman in particular was a one man wrecking crew, and if not for Juan Soto, his monster .341/.462/.640 slash line would have led the NL in each category. Not only that, but Freeman was one of just seven NL players to appear in all sixty games, and his 262 plate appearances put him third in the league. He hit in August (.330/.440/.582) and he hit in September (.375/.496/.750), not just bursting out with a couple weeks of excellence but maintaining it all season long. Aside from Soto and his 200 wRC+, no National League player has topped Freeman's 187 since Bryce Harper's 197 in 2015, and before that, not since Barry Bonds' 233 in 2004.

Runner-up: SS Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Stat line: 17 HR, .277/.366/.571, 11 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR in 59 games.
I wanted to give this award to Tatis, I really did, and I would have strongly considered him ahead of Shane Bieber if he were in the AL. Even though he hit just .164/.242/.291 over his last 16 games, which is more than a quarter of the season, what he did in his first 43 games was unparalleled anywhere in either league. As of September 7th, before the slump started, he was hitting .314/.405/.663 with a league leading 15 home runs, but his value went beyond that. Tatis was one of the best defenders in baseball by multiple different measures, and with eleven stolen bases, he even finished fourth in the NL in that category. He energized the Padres' players, organization, and socially distant fanbase in a way that no other player did in 2020, and for that reason I believe his value goes well beyond the 3.0 fWAR he put up in 59 games. Take Tatis out of that lineup and I don't think the 37-23 Padres drop to 34-26, but to something more like 30-30. San Diego's biggest asset in 2020 was its energy, and Tatis was at the center. Had he played even average baseball over the last couple weeks of the season, I think he would have been the clear MVP.

Honorable mention: OF Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 18 HR, .338/.431/.636, 0 SB, 179 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 60 games.
Here in the third spot, I wouldn't argue with Manny Machado, who carried the Padres through Tatis' slump on his way to a strong .304/.370/.580 season + his trademark defense, or Trea Turner, who had an unbelievable stretch in which he hit .471/.526/.816 over 21 games (over a third of the season!) and at one point collected fifteen hits in a four stretch. But Marcell Ozuna's continued offensive dominance over a "full," sixty game season could only be matched by his teammate Freddie Freeman, and his 18 home runs and 56 RBI finished atop the National League while his .431 on-base percentage and .636 slugging percentage weren't far behind. Looking at the Braves' final 35-25 record, you'd have no idea about their rotation problems or the fact that Ronald Acuña missed nearly a quarter of the season, and that's due to Freeman and Ozuna forming the best middle of the order in baseball by far. He kept Freeman from getting the Juan Soto/Barry Bonds treatment, and in total he produced as much offense as any non-Freeman player in baseball.

Others: RHP Trevor Bauer (CIN, 1.73 ERA), 3B Manny Machado (SD, 2.5 fWAR), SS Trea Turner (WSH, 2.7 fWAR), OF Mookie Betts (LAD, 2.9 fWAR), OF Juan Soto (WSH, 2.4 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
This was the easiest award to hand out by far, didn't have to think twice. See Bieber's MVP writeup for more details.

Runner-up: RHP Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 6-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 80/10 K/BB in 66.2 IP.
This #2 slot is very close between Maeda and Gerrit Cole, but Maeda's incredible ability to not only limit runs but limit baserunners gives him the edge. His 0.75 WHIP led both leagues by a good margin ahead of second place Trevor Bauer (0.79) and third place Dinelson Lamet (0.86), and it's actually the second lowest ever in a season behind Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000 (Bauer, interestingly, is fourth best all time). In his eleven starts, Maeda went at least five innings in all of them and never allowed more than three runs in a start, but more impressively, he never allowed more than six baserunners in any start. His best work came on August 18th against the Brewers when he allowed one run on just three baserunners over eight innings, striking out twelve. With a lack of superstar seasons ahead of him (aside from Bieber), it's enough to place second in the league despite a 2.70 ERA.

Honorable mention: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 7-3, 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
I'm a sucker for a large body of work, so the fact that Gerrit Cole finished fourth in the American League with 73 innings is a big plus for me. Obviously that's not all he had going for him, also racking up the third most strikeouts (94), fourth best WHIP (0.96), and sixth best ERA (2.84) despite pitching in a heavy hitters' park and pitching most of his road starts in hitters' parks as well in Baltimore, Atlanta, and Buffalo. Still, he spun some gems and finished the season with three consecutive seven inning starts in which he allowed one run or fewer, and he struck out at least seven in ten of his twelve starts. Yankees fans may have had sky high, Cy Young or bust expectations (I should know – I'm engaged to one) and a 2.84 ERA might feel like a let down, but given the fact that he made just two starts in pitcher friendly parks this year and that he still kept his WHIP under 1.00 and struck out nearly 100, I'd call this exactly what New York paid for.

Others: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR, 2.69 ERA), LHP Dallas Keuchel (CWS, 1.99 ERA), RHP Lance Lynn (TEX, 3.32 ERA), RHP Zach Plesac (CLE, 2.28 ERA), LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA, 3.10 ERA).

NL Cy Young: RHP Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 5-4, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 100/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
It's been an interesting few years for Trevor Bauer, who never posted an ERA below 4.18 from 2012-2017 but dropped all the way to 2.21 in 2018, only to rocket back up to 4.48 in 2019. Now in 2020, he's coming off a year that could very well win him a Cy Young Award, and it was a 1.24 ERA and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over his final four starts that fully pushed him past Jacob deGrom. Bauer's entire season was exceptional, with four different starts of a dozen or more strikeouts, eight out of eleven starts allowing either zero or one earned run, and all eleven where he pitched into the sixth inning. He led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79) while finishing second in strikeouts (100) and sixth in innings pitched, all while pitching in a tough hitters' park in Cincinnati. This year, it was the Reds' offense that scuffled at times, not its pitching as had been the case in years past, and Bauer combined with Luis Castillo to form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. The short season obviously matters, but his 0.79 WHIP is technically the lowest in the history of the National League, and that counts for something.

Runner-up: RHP Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Stat line: 8-3, 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 93/14 K/BB in 76 IP.
I went back and forth between Yu Darvish and Dinelson Lamet for this spot, but Darvish gets the edge with seven more innings pitched, a slightly lower ERA, and similar dominance in terms of keeping runners off the bases. He was one of baseball's better pitchers from 2012-2016 with the Rangers before falling into more of an inconsistent, mid-rotation profile with the Dodgers and Cubs from 2017-2019. 2020 was the best we've ever seen from the Japanese hurler, in which he had the second best ERA in the National League. After allowing three runs over four innings in an unremarkable first start of the season, he allowed zero or one earned run in eight of his final eleven starts and went at least six innings in each of them. That consistency was key for a Cubs team that won the NL Central for the first time since 2017, and by eating 76 innings, he was third in the league. He did it by the strikeout, his 93 finishing fourth in the league, but he also did it with excellent command, his 1.66 walks per nine finishing second only to his teammate Kyle Hendricks.

Honorable mention: RHP Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 3-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 93/20 K/BB in 69 IP.
A three win pitcher as a top three Cy Young candidate? 2020 really is a different animal. After flashing strikeout stuff over his first two seasons sandwiched around Tommy John surgery, Dinelson Lamet put it all together in 2020 for baseball's most exciting team. In twelve starts, he put up a 2.09 ERA, struck out 93, and allowed just 39 hits in 69 innings. Aside from a precautionary early exit in his final start of the season, Lamet went at least five innings in all of his starts and never allowed more than six hits or three earned runs in any. He finished second in the NL in WHIP (0.86), third in ERA (2.09), and fourth in strikeouts (93). His .250 xwOBA (expected opponents' offense, essentially) was third in the NL behind only Bauer and Jacob deGrom, showing that his exceptional season was earned, too. If you've never seen a Lamet slider, you need to watch one of his starts.

Others: RHP Jacob deGrom (NYM, 2.38 ERA), RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC, 2.88 ERA), LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD, 2.16 ERA), RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL, 2.11 ERA), RHP German Marquez (COL, 3.75 ERA)

Reviewing the San Diego Padres Farm System

While the Braves, Rays, White Sox, and Blue Jays might be able to give the Padres a run for their money, it's pretty easy to pick San Diego as having the top farm system in baseball. They have the headliner (Fernando Tatis Jr.), a supporting cast of impact hitters (Luis Urias, Francisco Mejia, Josh Naylor), and plenty of pitching depth (led by MacKenzie Gore, Logan Allen, Chris Paddack), making it no surprise that Manny Machado was willing to sign there despite the lack of recent success (though I'm sure the weather didn't hurt). In an overview sense, there's not much else to say except that this system is loaded in every way.

Affiliates: AAA El Paso Chihuahuas, AA San Antonio Missions*, High A Lake Elsinore Storm, Class A Fort Wayne TinCaps, Short Season Tri-City Dust Devils, and complex level AZL and DSL Padres
*AA affiliate will move from San Antonio, TX to Amarillo, TX in 2019

The Headliner: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
20 year old Fernando Tatis Jr., the son of former major leaguer Fernando Tatis, besides having a great birthday that also happens to be mine (January 2nd crew), is the only other player that can really give Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a run for his money as the top prospect in the game right now. As a teenager in 2018, Tatis slashed .286/.355/.507 with 16 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 109/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA San Antonio, putting up great numbers despite watching his season end with a thumb injury in July. He's already a complete player who does everything well, showing power, the ability to get on base, speed, and strong defense at shortstop, all at a very young age. I'm not concerned about the higher than 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio because Tatis was just 19 years old in AA, and he barrels the ball up consistently enough that it won't be a problem in the majors in 2019. Set to play all of this season at just 20 years old, he should be a strong candidate for the NL Rookie of the Year Award as he looks to fulfill his projections as a 20+ homer bat with high on-base percentages, double digit stolen bases, and great defense: a perennial All Star projection.

High Minors Hitters: 2B Luis Urias, C/OF Francisco Mejia, 3B Jason Vosler, OF Josh Naylor, C/1B Austin Allen, OF Buddy Reed, and 3B Hudson Potts
The Padres are deeper in pitching, but I'll start with the upper level hitters behind Fernando Tatis Jr. who are set to make an impact in the very near future. 21 year old Luis Urias slashed .296/.398/.447 with eight home runs and a 109/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA El Paso, then slashed .208/.264/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 10/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 major league games. At 5'9", he doesn't hit for much power, but Urias is a steady singles hitter who draws plenty of walks, avoids strikeouts for the most part, and overall projects to post high on-base percentages. He should be a steady producer for years to come. 23 year old Francisco Mejia is a very well known prospect, having been the top prospect in the Indians' system before he was traded to San Diego in the Brad Hand trade. Mejia slashed .293/.338/.471 with 14 home runs and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at AAA, also slashing .179/.258/.375 with three home runs and a 19/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 major league games. Mejia has high upside but also comes with plenty of questions, as he is a very solid hitter who can consistently barrel the ball up and spray deep line drives and home runs all over the park, though he is unproven at the major league level despite all his success in the high minors. Defensively, the Padres continue to be hopeful that he can stick as a catcher with his cannon arm, but his defense overall is just so-so. There is a chance he ends up in the outfield or even at third base, where he is also just so-so, but his potential for 15-20 home runs annually and high on-base percentages means that the Padres will be very patient. 25 year old Jason Vosler, who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, looks like more of a bench bat after slashing .251/.330/.467 with 23 home runs and a 149/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA and AAA in 2018. He has power and draws a lot of walks, but he likely won't hit for enough average to ever warrant a starting position, especially with Manny Machado now blocking him at third base. He's an average defensive infielder and will warrant consideration as a power hitting pinch hitter. Dropping down a level, 21 year old Josh Naylor projects to be an impact hitter at the major league level. In 2018, Naylor slashed .297/.383/.447 with 17 home runs and a 69/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA San Antonio, showing some power and great plate discipline. A stocky guy at 5'11" and 250 pounds, you'd expect more power out of Naylor, but his keen eye at the plate and high on-base percentages make up for that and he should hit his way into the starting lineup down the line. Defensively, he doesn't provide much value, playing an average first base and a mediocre left field, but at this point the bat looks like it is enough to carry him. 25 year old Austin Allen finds himself in a somewhat similar position, coming off a 2018 where he slashed .290/.351/.506 with 22 home runs and a 97/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at San Antonio. While Naylor has better plate discipline, the 6'2" Allen has shown more power at this point (keep in mind that Naylor is nearly three and a half years younger) and has the defensive edge because he *might* be able to stick as a catcher. His defense there is mediocre and he just turned 25 in January, but the Padres still hope to refine him to the point where he is playable back there and his power can help him be a bat-first catcher. If he is forced to move to first base, he's still a strong enough hitter that he should be able to stick on a roster and even earn some starts. 23 year old Buddy Reed has had a roller coaster ride for a career, looking like a potential top ten pick for the 2016 draft before an up and down junior season at Florida knocked him to the second round (48th overall), then he struggled in pro ball in both 2016 (.254/.326/.337) and 2017 (.234/.290/.396). However, he turned it around in 2018, slashing .271/.319/.435 with 13 home runs, 51 stolen bases, and a 147/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. He was much better at hitter-friendly Lake Elsinore (.324/.371/.549) than he was at much more pitcher-friendly San Antonio (.179/.227/.235), which raises questions about his ability to hit at the major league level, but he still retains high upside despite turning 24 in April. Reed is exceptionally fast and plays great defense in center field, plus his wiry frame helps him hit for some power at the plate. However, if he wants to end up more than just a fourth outfielder/defensive replacement, he really has to improve his plate discipline in a hurry. Lastly, 20 year old Hudson Potts was actually the Padres first round pick (24th overall, then known as Hudson Sanchez) out of a Dallas area high school in that same 2016 draft, and he slashed .260/.335/.455 with 19 home runs and a 145/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games between Lake Elsinore and San Antonio. Like Reed, he was much better at Lake Elsinore (.281/.350/.498) than he was at San Antonio (.154/.258/.231), though being three and a half years younger does buy him slack. He has some power and at 6'3", he looks like he could grow into more, and while he strikes out a lot, he has been young for the levels he has played at and does possess an advanced bat. Potts isn't a great defender at third base but isn't a liability either, and he is somewhat of a sleeper in the deep system he plays in. Watch for Potts to draw more attention in 2019.

Low and Mid Minors Hitters: OF Edward Olivares, OF Tirso Ornelas, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, C Luis Campusano, SS Xavier Edwards, and 2B Tucupita Marcano
The best hitters in the Padres' system are up near the top, but they have a whole group of young guys in the low and mid minors that could break out and join that group in 2019. 22 year old Edward Olivares, acquired from the Blue Jays for Yangervis Solarte last offseason, looks like a solid fourth outfielder after slashing .277/.321/.429 with 12 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 102/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at hitter-friendly High A Lake Elsinore in 2018. Olivares is a speedy centerfielder known for his great outfield defense, adding a very good feel for the barrel and plenty of gap power at the plate to round out his skill set. Overall, the bat is likely just a little too light if he wants to be a long-term starter in the majors, but with the ability to post solid on-base percentages and quite a few extra base hits, he should be a very useful fourth outfielder. 18 year old Tirso Ornelas, who grew up right across the border from San Diego in Tijuana, burst onto the scene in 2018 by slashing .252/.341/.392 with eight home runs and a 68/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 86 games at Class A Fort Wayne. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but Ornelas just turned 18 right before the start of the season and managed very respectable numbers against full season competition (most notably an 11.3% walk rate and a 19.2% strikeout rate). In addition to his very mature approach at the plate, he has room to grow into more power at 6'3" and is a prime candidate  for an offensive breakout in the hitter-friendly High A California League in 2019. Defensively, the teenager should be a solid right fielder. 19 year old Jeisson Rosario has a similar profile, having slashed .271/.368/.353 with three home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 108/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. He's also very young, just five months older than Ornelas, and he also has a very patient approach at the plate that allows him to draw plenty of walks. He might strike out a bit more and he doesn't have quite as much power, but he's faster and also has an advanced bat for his age. Ornelas is the better prospect at this point but it will be interesting to see Rosario develop alongside him in the outfield. 19 year old Gabriel Arias slashed .240/.302/.352 with six home runs and a 149/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games with Fort Wayne, and like Ornelas and Rosario, he was extremely young for the level. While his bat isn't as developed as Ornelas's or even Rosario's, he's the best defender in the group with a slick glove and a strong arm at shortstop, buying his bat plenty of time to develop. He has some gap power at this point and isn't afraid to draw a walk, so he has the building blocks to eventually build himself into a starting-caliber shortstop down the road. (though Fernando Tatis Jr. might have something to say about that). 20 year old Luis Campusano was a second round pick (39th overall) out of an Augusta, Georgia high school in 2017, then he slashed .288/.345/.365 with three home runs and a 43/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at Fort Wayne in 2018. Known for his power as a high schooler, that hasn't quite translated into pro ball, but catchers take longer to develop and his .345 on-base percentage was still encouraging. He's a work in progress defensively but shows the tools to be above average in that regard, and if he starts tapping into his raw power more consistently, he could give the Padres a third legitimate catcher behind Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen. Moving farther down in the system, the Padres have a couple of short season bats to replace the big crew graduating from Class A in 2018. 19 year old Xavier Edwards was a competitive balance pick (38th overall) in 2018 out of a South Florida high school, and he slashed .346/.453/.409 with 22 stolen bases and a 25/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and short season Tri-City in his pro debut. Those numbers were exactly in line with what was expected from Edwards, as he brings great plate discipline and feel for the barrel along with lots of speed and defensive value. Because he lacks power, it's important that he continues to spray line drives into the gaps and draw his share of walks. Defensively, he is so-so at shortstop but would be a well above average defender at second base. Overall, he has the makings of a prototypical leadoff man. Lastly, 19 year old Tucupita Marcano, who was apparently named for his hometown of Tucupita, Venezuela, slashed .366/.450/.438 with one home run, 15 stolen bases, and a 16/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in complex ball and at Tri-City. Marcano tore up the complex level Arizona League (.395/.497/.444) but was also strong in short season ball (.314/.355/.429) despite not turning 19 until after the season, showing advanced plate discipline and the ability to make consistent hard contact. He's a decent middle infielder who may be forced from shortstop to second base, but with his potential to post very high on-base percentages, his defense may not matter and 2019 could be the year he really establishes himself in this system.

High Minors Pitchers: LHP Logan Allen, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Jacob Nix, RHP Chris Paddack, and RHP Lake Bachar
The Padres' great wealth of arms is scattered pretty evenly throughout the system, which means that there are a couple of true impact arms knocking on the door right now even after 2016 draftees Eric Lauer (first round from Kent State) and Joey Lucchesi (fourth round from Southeast Missouri State) graduated in 2018. 21 year old Logan Allen, who came over from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel trade of 2015, has dominated the minor leagues and put up a huge season in 2018, going 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 151/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.2 innings at AA San Antonio and AAA El Paso. The 6'3" lefty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondaries, though only his changeup can be considered a swing and miss pitch. Instead of blowing the ball by hitters, Allen finds success by mixing his pitches and maintaining his stuff deep into ballgames, giving him a pretty clear #3 or #4 starter projection with fairly low risk. He should be able to hold down a major league rotation spot for most or all of 2019. 24 year old Cal Quantrill is a Canadian righty out of Stanford who was a first round pick (eighth overall in 2016), though he had an up and down 2018 and posted a 4.80 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 123/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings between San Antonio and El Paso. Quantrill, like Allen, is a pitchability guy who only throws in the low to mid 90's but who adds a full array of secondaries headlined by a great changeup. He has better command than Allen but has less deception in his delivery and doesn't get as many strikeouts, and that command does come and go. When he's on, though, he looks fantastic; on June 3rd, he struck out ten over seven shutout innings against the AA Springfield Cardinals, allowing just five baserunners along the way. Quantrill is going to need his command to be "on" more than it's "off" in the majors, where he could be a very solid #3 starter but who could slip back to a #4 or a #5 if he can't get more consistent. To wrap up the Allen/Quantrill comparison: Allen is almost two and a half years younger than Quantrill and is consistently average with his command, while Quantrill fluctuates anywhere from average to above average in that regard. However, as a lefty, Allen gets more deception on his stuff and can get away with that average command. 23 year old Jacob Nix, who was caught up in the Brady Aiken draft mess of 2014 with the Astros, was the Padres' third round pick (86th overall) in 2016 and pitched well in the high minors in 2018, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 44/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings at San Antonio and El Paso. However, he struggled in a brief MLB call-up with a 7.02 ERA and a 21/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings, so he'll try again in 2019. Nix is a 6'4" righty with a straight, low to mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a decent changeup, and he does a very good job of throwing strikes in general. Sometimes he can be a little bit too much over the plate, which led to him allowing eight home runs in nine major league starts in 2018, but a few further tweaks in his command could make him a solid #4 starter in the near future. Moving down a level, 23 year old Chris Paddack had as big a bounce-back season as you can have in 2018, posting a 2.10 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 120/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and San Antonio a year after missing all of 2017 with Tommy John surgery. Paddack now has a 1.82 ERA, a 0.80 WHIP, and a 230/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 177.2 career minor league innings since being drafted in the eighth round out of an Austin-area high school by the Marlins in 2015, as he has showcased exceptional command to go along with a low 90's fastball, a mediocre curveball, and a fantastic changeup that serves as a true swing and miss pitch. Paddack has some stiff competition for rotation spots to deal with in the near future, so the Padres can be patient with him and help him build his stamina back up after throwing just 132.1 innings from 2016-2018, but after that he could be a very useful mid-rotation starter. Lastly, 23 year old Lake Bachar posted a 4.68 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and an 80/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at Lake Elsinore and San Antonio, though those stats don't count two strong appearances in the AA Texas League playoffs (6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K). His stuff isn't great, but he has a full array of secondary pitches and commands everything decently well, also getting good deception with his high three quarters arm angle. He's unlikely to stick in the rotation in a system as deep as this one, but he could be a useful long reliever in the near future.

Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Michel Baez, LHP Adrian Morejon, RHP Andres Munoz, RHP Reggie Lawson, LHP Nick Margevicius, and RHP David Bednar
Behind the group knocking on the door to the MLB, the Padres have another wave of talent who just came through High A. 23 year old Michel Baez was signed out of Cuba for $3 million two offseasons ago, and after a dominant stateside debut in 2017 (2.54 ERA, 89/10 K/BB), he continued the good work in 2018 by posting a 3.69 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at High A Lake Elsinore and AA San Antonio. He's a huge guy at 6'8", which makes his mid 90's fastball and full arsenal of secondaries very difficult to square up. He hasn't been the most consistent pitcher, sometimes losing his command and seeing his fastball dip into the low 90's, but Baez has the makings of a #2 or #3 starter with just a few more tweaks in his mechanics. Otherwise, he should fare just fine as an impact reliever if he can't get more consistent with his stuff. 20 year old Adrian Morejon is another Cuban who signed for $11 million back in 2016, and he had a strong season by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at Lake Elsinore (with one rehab appearance in complex ball). He's a very different pitcher from Baez in that he's just six feet tall and left handed, but he still brings the heat with a mid 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a couple of changeups, and he has been more consistent with his stuff despite being three years younger. Durability is an issue for a smaller guy like Morejon, and the missed time in 2018 didn't help alleviate those worries. If healthy, Morejon looks like a potential #2 starter, but that's always a big "if" and we'll have to see how he fares in 2019. Further durability issues could push him to the bullpen, where he should be very strong. 20 year old Andres Munoz had a breakout season in 2018, posting a 0.73 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.2 innings between short season Tri-City and San Antonio, managing to pitch very well in AA as a teenager. He's purely a reliever and is an absolute flamethrower, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and adding an up and coming slider, though he struggles with control and needs to prove his durability as well. Now healthy in 2019, Munoz has a chance to improve that control, and if he can further improve his slider (he'll be just 20 for all of 2019), he has a shot to be a major league closer. 21 year old Reggie Lawson survived the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, posting a 4.69 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 117/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Lake Elsinore. The 6'4" righty isn't of the same prospect caliber as Baez and Morejon, but he shows a mid 90's fastball and a good curveball to go along with some durability and projectability, giving him the chance to be a #4 starter if he can improve his command a little. If not, his fastball/curveball combination should play well in the bullpen anyways, and he'll get a crack at AA in 2019. 22 year old Nick Margevicius raised some eyebrows in 2018 with his strong season, posting a 3.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 146/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 innings at Class A Fort Wayne and Lake Elsinore. He's a 6'5" lefty with great command, and even though he barely sits in the low 90's with his fastball, he gets plenty of strikeouts by getting ahead in the count and dropping his great changeup on opposing hitters. The Padres have had great success with Chris Paddack, the right handed version of Margevicius, and will hope for more of the same here. Lastly, 24 year old David Bednar is purely a relief prospect, but he pitched well enough in the California League to warrant some attention with a 2.73 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings at Lake Elsinore. He misses bats with a mid 90's fastball, though his secondaries and command are currently behind and he doesn't have the same upside as Munoz. The curveball gets swings and misses and improved command in 2019 could put him on the fast track to the majors, where he could be a strong middle reliever.

Low Minors Pitchers: LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Luis Patino, LHP Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP Ryan Weathers, RHP Henry Henry, and RHP Anderson Espinoza
This group of pitchers is farther away, but it's still a great set of potential impact starters who give the Padres yet another wave of pitching sitting in the minors. 20 year old MacKenzie Gore, the third overall pick of the 2017 draft from high school in Southeastern North Carolina, had an up-and-down but overall successful transition to full season ball in 2018 by posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Class A Fort Wayne. Gore put up some of the craziest high school pitching numbers ever seen at Whiteville High School, going 33-1 with a 0.11 ERA and 332 strikeouts in 157.2 innings, over which he allowed just two runs. Coming from a small school in rural North Carolina, it's understandable that Gore was a bit raw in his first taste of pro ball, and blisters made it difficult for him to keep his stuff sharp in 2018. However, when healthy, Gore checks every box for what you want in a future ace; he's a 6'3" lefty with no weaknesses, tossing a low to mid 90's fastball and adding a full array of secondaries – all of which flash plus – that he can command well for a young pitcher, and his competitiveness and work ethic are considered top of the scale. Healthy in 2019, Gore will have a chance to break out and move toward his ultimate ceiling of being a true ace. 19 year old Luis Patino was signed for just $120,000 out of Colombia in 2016, but he has been fantastic ever since joining pro ball and posted a 2.16 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings at Fort Wayne in 2018, pitching the whole season at 18 years old. The teenager has a mid 90's fastball and a pair of great breaking balls, enabling him to miss plenty of bats even against older competition. He commands everything pretty well for a pitcher his age, and he's only getting stronger. Eight months younger than Gore and already boasting a better track record, Patino has true ace potential and could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a successful transition to High A in 2019. 20 year old Osvaldo Hernandez had a quiet breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.81 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 109.2 innings with Fort Wayne. Hernandez has a low 90's fastball and just decent offspeed stuff (though his curveball is currently his best pitch) but controls the strike zone and mixes his pitches well enough to shut down opposing offenses, at least in Class A. The six foot lefty will have to continue to hit the corners if he wants to succeed at the higher levels, but he has the makings of a back-end starter down the road. 19 year old Ryan Weathers was the Padres' first round pick (seventh overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2018, and he quickly responded by posting a 3.44 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and an 18/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.1 innings between complex ball and Fort Wayne. Despite his age, Weathers is actually more about command and durability than about pure upside, as he's a physically developed, 6'1" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a good curveball, and an advanced changeup. He should be a quick mover as far as high school pitchers go because he already has a pretty clear idea of how to pitch and use what he has, and he has mid-rotation upside with less risk than the typical high school arm. 20 year old Henry Henry has a great name but is also a solid pitching prospect, having posted a 4.54 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 55/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Fort Wayne in 2018. The 6'4" righty is very projectable and currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a solid curveball, and while his command isn't pinpoint, he's not wild and he can hit his spots. Adding some good weight could get him into the mid 90's with his fastball and make him a very interesting rotation candidate down the line, though he still has a good shot to be a solid fastball/curveball reliever. Lastly, 20 year old Anderson Espinoza missed the 2017 and 2018 seasons with Tommy John surgery, but the Padres have their fingers crossed that he's healthy and ready to get back to working towards his immense upside in 2019. He's a skinny six footer with a mid 90's fastball, a good curveball, and a very advanced changeup for his age, generally commanding everything well and looking like a future ace on his best days. However, we haven't seen him in game action since 2016, so it's hard to know exactly what his stuff will look like this season, but he turns just 21 during spring training and still has plenty of time to get back on track. Durability is definitely a concern given his size and injury history, so if he can't hold up in a rotation, he has high upside as a hard throwing reliever as well.