I usually love the way the Guardians draft, though I'm not as high on this class for them. It was an on-brand class, focusing on youth, hit tools (very, very much on hit tools), and up the middle talent if you count Ralphy Velazquez as a catcher. I don't think you could call any of the nine position players they drafted "power hitters," and a few of the mid-round guys have pretty extreme hit tool-driven profiles. They focused on bats early before pivoting to arms later, a strategy I typically like, though the Guardians are one of the best organizations in the country at developing pitching. Interestingly enough, at one point they rattled off a stretch of six straight picks from the ACC.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.
1-23: C Ralphy Velazquez, Huntington Beach HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $3.38 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($880,900 below slot value).
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #29. Prospects Live: #45.
In Ralphy Velazquez, the Guardians might have found the most advanced high school hitter in the country not named Walker Jenkins or Max Clark. When you watch him hit, it's clear he's just on another level relative to his competition even at star-studded showcase events. Velazquez is extremely patient at the plate, effectively identifying fastballs and offspeed stuff and finding pitches he can do damage on. When he does get fooled, he makes adjustments and you'll never beat him with the same pitch twice. And when he gets something to hit, he unloads with a powerful left handed swing, effectively elevating the ball and driving it out to all fields. He can also shorten up with and just get the barrel on the ball when he needs to, and overall there's not much he does wrong at the plate at all. If there's one qualm with his offensive game, it's that he's not an explosive or quick-twitch athlete – he's just an average mover in the box, but one that executes the fundamentals. That may limit his offensive upside a little bit, with his power coming more from the ability to consistent ability to barrel the ball rather than explosive bat speed or strength. Defensively, the Southern California native has been improving behind the plate but still has a long way to go, with strong fundamentals but an overall lack of that quick twitch athleticism to jump in front of dirt balls. His arm is accurate, but the pure arm strength there is just average. Bolstering Velazquez's profile is his youth, having only turned 18 in May, yet he should still move quickly. There's not much to teach a kid like this, at least offensively – you just have to guide his development and help him adjust to life in pro ball. It's likely an Eric Hosmer or Jacob Berry-like profile with 15-20, maybe 25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages at first base, but if he can stick behind the plate, the profile becomes a lot more attractive and he goes from Eric Hosmer to a bigger Carlos Santana. He also saved Cleveland almost $900,000 against slot value by signing closer to the value of the 34th pick, giving up an Arizona State commitment in the process.
2-58: LHP Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken HS [RI] {video}
Slot value: $1.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($897,400 above slot value).
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #49. Prospects Live: #40.
After saving nearly $900,000 on Ralphy Velazquez, the Guardians immediately turned and spent all of it and then some on Alex Clemmey, giving him close to the slot value for the 37th pick here at #58 overall to divert him from a Vanderbilt commitment. He's just about the polar opposite to Velazquez, and not just because he grew up over 2500 miles away in the opposite corner of the country. While Velazquez is an advanced player with strong fundamentals but lacking in explosive athleticism, Clemmey comes in with one of the most electric arms in the entire country and a glaring lack of refinement. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but can reach back for as much as 99, with riding life from a lower arm slot that could make it a plus-plus pitch. He's still figuring out his breaking ball, which looks like a slider at times and a curveball at others, but it has plenty of depth and plays well out of his slot, with the chance to be a plus pitch in its own right as he gets more consistent with it. The changeup right now is a distant third pitch, but that's not surprising for a raw talent out of New England. However, the biggest area that needs immediate development and attention is his delivery and command. The 6'6" lefty has very long arm action in the back which gives way to significant head whack, leading to below average command and creating significant reliever risk. At the same time, though, he's a tremendous athlete that gets down the mound well and is extremely young for the class, turning 18 shortly after the draft, and he should be very receptive to pro coaching. The ceiling is very high if the Guardians get this one right, but he has a long way to go if he wants to remain a starting pitcher.
CBB-62: RHP Andrew Walters, Miami {video}
Slot value: $1.27 million. Signing bonus: $955,275 ($318,425 below slot value).
My rank: #95. MLB Pipeline: #124. Baseball America: #133. Prospects Live: #68.
Andrew Walters had a chance to go in the top handful of rounds last year, but opted to return to Miami and it looks like he may have earned himself some money, signing for nearly a million dollars (well below slot value, early third round money, around #75 overall). He has been one of the best relievers in college baseball ever since he stepped foot on campus at Miami after a year at Eastern Florida State, with a career 1.41 ERA and a 170/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings. In fact, over the past two seasons he has run an even better 134/13 strikeout to walk ratio, good for a 45.7% strikeout rate and just a 4.4% walk rate. Interestingly enough, Walters gets it done more or less with one pitch. His elite fastball sits in the mid 90's and tops out around 98, but plays like an invisiball with great riding action and the ability to hide it well. Beyond its velocity and deception, he also spots it with precision around the zone, and all together it alone has left hitters confounded throughout the ACC for three years now. The 6'4" righty has worked hard to incorporate his offspeed stuff better, with an improving slider and splitter that will help keep pro hitters honest, but the showstopper here is the fastball. We can look to former Arkansas star reliever Kevin Kopps as a bit of a comparison here, as he dominated the SEC on his cutter/slider alone and was old for the class when he was drafted, but that's still different from a fastball and he was 24 when he was drafted versus Walters being 22. Kopps reached AA almost immediately after being drafted but has stagnated there for a couple of seasons, and Walters will look to push past that and become the Guardians' next great closer. One of the better closers in recent team history, two time All Star Chris Perez, was also a Miami Hurricane.
3-93: 1B CJ Kayfus, Miami {video}
Slot value: $725,300. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($25,300 below slot value).
My rank: #194. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #108. Prospects Live: #114.
The Guardians went back to Miami for the second straight pick, this time grabbing a first baseman with one of the better pure hit tools in the class. CJ Kayfus has been a model of consistency over the past two seasons, slashing .357/.462/.553 with 21 home runs and an 80/84 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games combined. He has tremendous feel for hitting with an extremely professional approach and the mindset of barrel to ball, nothing more. It's a quick, short left handed swing that generates moderate power with some whip through the zone, and he repeats it well in order to get his barrel on the ball all over the zone. He's also disciplined, walking at a 15.9% clip in 2023 while keeping his strikeout rate down and chasing less than a quarter of the time. The South Florida native is not overly physical, standing at 6', 190 pounds, and to me his overall offensive ceiling might be a bit limited with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 103, a moderate number. Kayfus doesn't offer a ton of value with the glove, having played mostly an adequate first base at Miami, but he has some moderate speed and may be able to handle left field fairly well if Cleveland wants at least a little bit of positional flexibility. Overall, he's much more of a pure hitter than a pure athlete, and his .299/.384/.351 slash line on the Cape last summer might be indicative of his MLB upside. If he can tap a little more power, that's an every day profile even if he's stuck at first base.
4-125: C Cooper Ingle, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $526,400. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($126,200 below slot value).
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #232. Baseball America: #170. Prospects Live: #207.
I've been much higher on Cooper Ingle than most of the industry throughout the process, so I like the Guardians getting him here in the fourth round while spending mid-fifth round money. He barely played as a freshman at Clemson, but broke out for a huge sophomore season (.351/.449/.526) before coming down to Earth a little as a junior (.328/.417/.461, 6 HR, 29/39 K/BB). Ingle is a fascinating hitter. Undersized at 5'10", he deploys a lightning quick left handed swing to shoot lasers around the park, focusing much more on contact than ever trying to turn on and lift the ball. At the same time, he's an extremely disciplined hitter than only chases around 20% of the time, leading to exceptional contact rates closing in on 90%. That slasher approach played up on the Cape, where he ran a .401 on-base percentage against elite pitching, but also slugged just .319. I'm curious to see what the Guardians do with his bat – with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 103 (a hair below CJ Kayfus), the power is fringy at best and he's not a big guy, but Ingle is generating that number without actually trying, at all, to hit for power. If he learns to turn on the ball and look to drive it in the air, I could see him approaching annual home run totals in the teens. But that's usually not how the Guardians develop their hitters and I expect they'll keep him in this slasher mentality, where he should run up high on-base percentages while rarely striking out but may struggle to reach double digit home run totals. Similar to first rounder Ralphy Velazquez, there are some questions about his ability to stick behind the plate, but for different reasons. He's nimble for the position, but not overly physical and his arm is just average. He also has spent significant time in the outfield for Clemson, splitting catching duties with Jacob Jarrell in 2023. If the Asheville native can stick as a catcher, the offensive profile should work just fine. If he's forced to a corner outfield spot, he suddenly looks a little more like a fourth/fifth outfielder.
5-161: SS Christian Knapczyk, Louisville {video}
Slot value: $371,000. Signing bonus: $385,000 ($14,000 above slot value).
My rank: #151. MLB Pipeline: #157. Baseball America: #100. Prospects Live: #98.
Christian Knapczyk makes it a third straight hit over power profile for the Guardians (what else is new), but in this case he's even more extreme than both CJ Kayfus and Cooper Ingle. Knapczyk has been one of the peskiest hitters in the ACC over the past two seasons, combining to slash .339/.469/.440 with three home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 46/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games. Even before that, he played on the Cape after his freshman season in 2021 and slashed .346/.423/.431, which is incredibly impressive for a 19 year old. Knapczyk is an extreme contact hitter with a slap-hitter approach, just peppering the ball around the field with little intent to do damage and instead using his plus speed to pick up extra bases. Standing just 5'9" and listed at 165 pounds, it's unlikely that he ever grows into even fringy power, with the ultimate offensive upside most likely limited to single digit home run totals and high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. He's a fairly disciplined hitter that doesn't chase much, but he makes so much contact that it also cuts into his walk totals even though he never strikes out (just a 9% K rate in 2023). Defensively, his plus speed gives him a shot to stick at shortstop, but he's a smaller guy whose arm might fit better at second base, where he could be an above average defender. It's probably a utility infield profile in the end for the Chicago-area product.
6-188: OF Tommy Hawke, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $295,000. Signing bonus: $295,000.
My rank: #187. MLB Pipeline: #238. Baseball America: #163. Prospects Live: #152.
In Tommy Hawke, the Guardians get almost an identical player to Christian Knapczyk except that he's even smaller and plays outfield instead of infield. Hawke has been just as pesky in the ACC as Knapczyk over the past two seasons, slashing .362/.474/.489 with nine home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 88/91 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games for Wake Forest. Generously listed at 5'8", he clocks in at just 155 pounds so he's coming in an inch shorter and ten pounds lighter than the already diminutive Knapczyk. He swings with a little more intent than Knapczyk, with the ability to turn on the ball and send it out if the wind is blowing out, and but ultimately ends up with almost the same offensive profile because he has very little raw power and his elite bat to ball skills help him get to balls all over the zone anyways. He's a little more patient than Knapczyk and also an even faster runner, clocking in at plus-plus at times, so his stat line might not be as solely reliant on his batting average, but it's still similar. That speed will help him stick in center field, though as you might expect he doesn't have much of an arm. He profiles best as a speedy fourth outfielder, and because he's eligible as a sophomore, he's young and only turned 21 just before the draft.
7-218: SS Alex Mooney, Duke {video}
Slot value: $231,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($768,700 above slot value).
My rank: #96. MLB Pipeline: #114. Baseball America: #83. Prospects Live: #94.
Another draft-eligible sophomore and the Guardians' sixth straight pick from the ACC, Alex Mooney signed way above slot value and in fact got early third round money (in fact just below the slot value for pick #72) here in the seventh round at #218 overall. I've always been interested in Mooney, who had serious top two round buzz coming out of high school in the Detroit area and ranked #49 on my 2021 list. Mooney has seen steady growth at Duke, slashing .292/.393/.392 as a freshman before improving to .315/.434/.504 with eight home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 43/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games as a sophomore in 2023. He lacks a standout tool, but he does almost everything well on the diamond and that's why I'm interested here. Mooney has a fairly advanced approach at the plate, with selective aggression that leads to moderately elevated chase rates, but he has strong bat to ball skills that keep his strikeout rates down. He also shows quick, accurate hands in the box that help guide the barrel all around the zone, making flush, line drive contact on pitches up, down, in, and out. The power began to tick up in 2023, but it's still below average and he'll need to continue to fill out his 6'1" frame in order to continue to tap it with wood bats. I'm slightly concerned about the low exit velocities, but only slightly and I do think increased strength will come and help him hit 10-15 home runs per season at the major league level. On the other side of the ball, he has a strong internal clock and good feel for the shortstop position, though he's more of an above average runner than a plus one and may not be quite explosive enough to stick there in the long term. In giving him a million dollars to sign, the Guardians clearly believe he has a good shot and I think he does have a chance. The youth certainly helps and I think Mooney has a chance to become a "boring good" everyday player that slots in at 2B or 3B with some pop and solid on-base percentages.
9-278: RHP Jay Driver, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $174,300. Signing bonus: $151,000 ($23,300 below slot value).
My rank: #162. MLB Pipeline: #241. Baseball America: #245. Prospects Live: #333.
I love Cooper Ingle, but this is probably my favorite pick of the draft for the Guardians, who get a potential high leverage reliever for less than slot value in the ninth round. The Ivy League stole Jay Driver's freshman year when they inexplicably cancelled the entire 2021 season, but he showed extremely well as a redshirt freshman reliever in 2022 before embarking on a successful Cape Cod League run where he struck out 48 batters in 29.2 innings. There was a lot of buzz around the local Boston-area kid heading into 2023 as Harvard announced it would move him to the rotation, but he pitched to mixed results with a 4.41 ERA and a 69/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings against relatively weak competition. At his best, he sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with running and sinking action, but his velocity dipped closer to 90 in longer outings as a starter. His best pitch is a frisbee slider that dives across the plate, though it too flattened out in his starts. Driver is primarily a two pitch pitcher, with his changeup needing considerable work in pro ball. Everything gets extra deception from a unique delivery, in which he gets deep into his glutes driving down the mound and releases from a low three quarters slot, effectively hiding the ball and delivering it from a unique spot. If I'm the Guardians, I'm moving him straight back to the bullpen where his fastball/slider combination can hopefully get back to its former glory. If that works, he'll have a pair of plus pitches with average command from a deceptive slot, and could easily become an impact reliever in the near future.
13-398: LHP Jacob Bresnahan, Sumner HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($225,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #491. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jacob Bresnahan is a projection play for the Guardians, and they believe in him enough that they gave him fifth round money to sign here in the thirteenth round rather than fulfill an Oregon commitment. He's a bit of a late bloomer and his fastball just started to peak over 90 this spring, topping out around 92, while his breaking ball and changeup are coming along. It's a big looping breaking ball that needs power, while his changeup looks like a solid option and is probably progressing a little faster. He's a big, lanky lefty with a very projectable 6'4" frame and a loose delivery, so as he fills out the Guardians will almost certainly help him tack on considerable velocity. Young for the class having turned 18 shortly before the draft, the Tacoma-area native will need to be brought along slowly but could pay off nicely in time.
