1-28: C Austin Wells, Arizona
3-99: 2B Trevor Hauver, Arizona State
4-129: RHP Beck Way, Northwest Florida State CC
The Yankees lost their second and fifth round picks for signing Gerrit Cole, so in the shortened draft, they only came away with three players. Still, I believe they did very well with the little they had, picking up two potential impact players and another solid one. This Arizona-themed draft could send talent to the big leagues relatively quickly, with each player doing something a little different.
Full index of team reviews here
1-28: C Austin Wells, Arizona (my rank: 20)
I love this pick for the Yankees, and it's one they've made before. After New York drafted him in the 35th round out of high school in Las Vegas, Austin Wells has done nothing but hit since with a career .357/.476/.560 line, seven home runs, and a nice 57/63 strikeout to walk ratio across 71 games with Arizona. Just barely old enough to crack the minimum age for a draft-eligible sophomore, he was one of the younger college bats available and won't turn 21 until July, but he already has plenty of track record. In addition to smoking Pac 12 pitching, he hit .295/.377/.491 with seven home runs and a 51/24 strikeout to walk ratio across 46 games in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer. Wells doesn't have a true plus tool, but he has a lot to work with in above average plate discipline, power, and contact ability, which is why he's managed to hit for impact everywhere he's gone. He takes healthy but controlled hacks from the left side, consistently turning around velocity and driving breaking pitches and proving that everything plays up with wood. Still young, he could tap even more power as he continues to fill out, giving him a shot at being a real 30 home run hitter in the majors. There is a little bit of swing and miss but not a ton, and to this point it has not hampered his ability to find the barrel consistently at all. There are more questions about his defense, with a mediocre arm and choppy actions behind the plate. Given the depth of catchers in the Yankees' system, including Anthony Seigler and Josh Breaux both working their way up behind Gary Sanchez, Wells might not stick behind the plate very long. At least for the time being, they may feel inclined to give him every opportunity to try to catch, and he's shown an eagerness to improve his defense. Either way, the bat plays no matter what position he ends up at, but as a catcher he'd be one of the best in the game. Slot value is $2.49 million here and I don't imagine Wells will come with much of a discount, if any. Pre-draft profile here.
3-99: 2B Trevor Hauver, Arizona State (my rank: 144)
Heading back to the desert, the Yankees grabbed Phoenix-area native Trevor Hauver, probably the fourth best offensive prospect in a loaded Sun Devils lineup. He has raked for the last two seasons, slashing .339/.446/.598 with 18 home runs and a 68/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games since the start of 2019. Using a wide setup, Hauver employs a quick uppercut from the left side that has enabled him to tap his power consistently in games, though he plays in a hitter-friendly context using metal bats in college. That power didn't quite show up on the Cape (.256/.356/.333, 1 HR), though, and it leads to questions over how much will really play with wood bats. He's driven the ball with enough authority on a consistent enough basis at Arizona State to be confident in at least average power, and while there is some swing and miss in his game, he's been improving in that regard and draws plenty of walks. In all, we're probably looking at a 15-25 home run hitter at best with solid on-base percentages, with a more median projection of a platoon bat. He's not a great defender, but he can play close to average at a variety of positions, including second base, third base, or left or right field. The Yankees drafted him as a second baseman, but he'll likely just end up wherever they need him. He played outfield at Arizona State in deference to the Sun Devils' incredibly talented infield. Slot value is $587,400 at this pick, though the Yankees may want him to take a slight discount so they can afford:
4-129: RHP Beck Way, Northwest Florida State CC (my rank: 92)
Leaving the state of Arizona, the Yankees headed back to Florida to grab arguably the top junior college arm in the country. Beck Way, who is originally from the Harrisburg, Pennsylvania area, has been trending up really quickly ever since a strong summer on the Cape (3.29 ERA, 18/11 K/BB). He came back to Northwest Florida State and absolutely dominated, posting a 0.67 ERA and a 58/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 40 innings, and pushed himself firmly into top 100 conversations. Way is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that can climb as high as 97, which plays up coming from a low three quarters, almost sidearm slot. He adds a solid slider and a good changeup, with all three pitches flashing plus potential. In addition to the arm slot, his above average command helps him effectively tunnel his pitches off one another and keep hitters guessing. The lower arm slot might bring relief questions for some, but he repeats it well and has a durable frame, so it's more likely than not that he sticks in the rotation. I really like this pick, and I think Way can work his way up to being a legitimate impact starting pitcher for the Yankees down the line. Slot value is $438,700, but I'd expect he'll probably take a little more to sign away from a commitment to LSU. Pre-draft profile here.
Undrafted: RHP Carson Coleman, Kentucky (unranked)
I don't know much about Carson Coleman, an redshirt junior out of Kentucky, other than that he struck out 13 of the 23 hitters he faced in the shortened 2020 season. A 6'2" righty from Lexington, Kentucky, he's been a reliever throughout his time with the Wildcats with a career 4.19 ERA and 81/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings. 33 of those walks came in his first two years, but at least by the numbers his command looked stronger in the small sample of 2020. He also struck out nine and walked three over five innings in the Cape Cod League. Coleman signed as a free agent on Sunday, the first day he was eligible.
Showing posts with label Austin Wells. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Austin Wells. Show all posts
Sunday, June 14, 2020
Monday, June 8, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Who Could the Nationals Take at #22?
As a Nationals fan, I've put a lot of thought into the direction I'd like to see the Nationals go at pick #22. Predicting who they will take is pretty much guesswork, but as fans, we can look at the most likely options, choose one to latch onto, and hope. For context, these have been the Nationals' last five first round picks:
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
Monday, April 6, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Austin Wells
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/12/1999. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .375/.527/.589, 1 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 15 games
Man, can this dude hit. He exploded onto the scene as a freshman at Arizona by slashing .353/.462/.552 with five home runs and more walks (46) than strikeouts (43) last year, then was off to a strong start in his draft-eligible sophomore season with a .375/.527/.589 line and a pair of home runs through 15 games, bringing his career line to .357/.476/.560 across 71 games. That 2020 performance saw him get on base at least twice in 13/15 games, beginning with a massive opening day where he went 3-4 with two doubles and a home run against Albany. Wells also raked in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, slashing .295/.377/.491 with seven home runs and a 51/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games against the top pitchers in amateur baseball. All of that hitting as one of the younger draft-eligible college players in this year's draft will almost make you overlook the fact that his defense raises quite a few questions.
There aren't many weak spots in Wells' offensive game. He's a patient hitter who draws his share of walks even at a young age, he makes consistent hard contact against all kinds of high quality pitching, and he packs lots of raw power into at 6'2", 220 pound frame. Employing a fairly simple swing, his sheer strength helps him really drive the ball to all fields without really selling out for that power, and that enabled the power to really play up with wood bats on the Cape. There is virtually no question that power will continue to play up in pro ball, where he could move quickly through the minors. There is just a little bit of swing and miss in his game, but that is normal for a power hitter and the hit tool is a much safer bet than some of the other power college bats like Heston Kjerstad, Aaron Sabato, Casey Martin, and Jordan Westburg. The reason he ranks so low, however, is because of the defense.
Wells is listed as a catcher and does have a chance to stick there, but it is far from a certainty. He needs work in virtually all areas of his game, and it could be a bit of a project. As a well below average runner who really isn't all that athletic, he doesn't project well in the outfield and even his work at first base needs to be cleaned up. The fact that he hasn't shown much competence at other positions almost makes it easier to keep him as a catcher, but that will take time to develop and the bat is so advanced already and so potent that teams just might not want to wait around for that part of his game to develop (see Carlos Delgado, Kyle Schwarber, or even Bryce Harper). He reportedly worked hard on his defense over the winter, and it's very possible that he is a better defender now than he was six months ago or a year ago, but he didn't show enough in his very small sample this spring to move the needle much.
If Wells does get things figured out behind the plate, he'll be a steal even in the first round. That bat could be good for 25-35 home runs on an annual basis with very good on-base percentages, and even if he hit the lower end of that range as a catcher, he'd be one of the best in a game that lacks standouts at the position. As a first baseman, though, those numbers still play very well, and it's really hard to see him falling out of the first round even if his glove was made of concrete. Outside of that top tier of college hitters (Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, and Nick Gonzales), there is no safer bet to be an impact hitter in this class. If you can hit, they'll find a spot for you, and Wells could push his way up boards even without the glove and find himself right in the middle of the first round.
Cape Cod League game action
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 7/12/1999. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .375/.527/.589, 1 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 15 games
Man, can this dude hit. He exploded onto the scene as a freshman at Arizona by slashing .353/.462/.552 with five home runs and more walks (46) than strikeouts (43) last year, then was off to a strong start in his draft-eligible sophomore season with a .375/.527/.589 line and a pair of home runs through 15 games, bringing his career line to .357/.476/.560 across 71 games. That 2020 performance saw him get on base at least twice in 13/15 games, beginning with a massive opening day where he went 3-4 with two doubles and a home run against Albany. Wells also raked in the elite Cape Cod League over the summer, slashing .295/.377/.491 with seven home runs and a 51/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games against the top pitchers in amateur baseball. All of that hitting as one of the younger draft-eligible college players in this year's draft will almost make you overlook the fact that his defense raises quite a few questions.
There aren't many weak spots in Wells' offensive game. He's a patient hitter who draws his share of walks even at a young age, he makes consistent hard contact against all kinds of high quality pitching, and he packs lots of raw power into at 6'2", 220 pound frame. Employing a fairly simple swing, his sheer strength helps him really drive the ball to all fields without really selling out for that power, and that enabled the power to really play up with wood bats on the Cape. There is virtually no question that power will continue to play up in pro ball, where he could move quickly through the minors. There is just a little bit of swing and miss in his game, but that is normal for a power hitter and the hit tool is a much safer bet than some of the other power college bats like Heston Kjerstad, Aaron Sabato, Casey Martin, and Jordan Westburg. The reason he ranks so low, however, is because of the defense.
Wells is listed as a catcher and does have a chance to stick there, but it is far from a certainty. He needs work in virtually all areas of his game, and it could be a bit of a project. As a well below average runner who really isn't all that athletic, he doesn't project well in the outfield and even his work at first base needs to be cleaned up. The fact that he hasn't shown much competence at other positions almost makes it easier to keep him as a catcher, but that will take time to develop and the bat is so advanced already and so potent that teams just might not want to wait around for that part of his game to develop (see Carlos Delgado, Kyle Schwarber, or even Bryce Harper). He reportedly worked hard on his defense over the winter, and it's very possible that he is a better defender now than he was six months ago or a year ago, but he didn't show enough in his very small sample this spring to move the needle much.
If Wells does get things figured out behind the plate, he'll be a steal even in the first round. That bat could be good for 25-35 home runs on an annual basis with very good on-base percentages, and even if he hit the lower end of that range as a catcher, he'd be one of the best in a game that lacks standouts at the position. As a first baseman, though, those numbers still play very well, and it's really hard to see him falling out of the first round even if his glove was made of concrete. Outside of that top tier of college hitters (Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, and Nick Gonzales), there is no safer bet to be an impact hitter in this class. If you can hit, they'll find a spot for you, and Wells could push his way up boards even without the glove and find himself right in the middle of the first round.
Cape Cod League game action
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)