Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts

Thursday, September 11, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

While many teams played games with their bonus pool, the Twins went a little more straight up and stuck around slot value for nearly every pick. Minnesota targeted a wide variety of skill sets, from glove-first to big power to power arms, but size was a common thread. Their first six picks were 6'6" on average. Yes, 6'6" on average, including the tallest player in the entire draft in the 6'11" Jason Reitz. I like what they did here overall and I think this will be a strong class.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-16: SS Marek Houston, Wake Forest
Slot value: $4.93 million. Signing bonus: $4.5 million ($432,100 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #15. Baseball America: #14.
Previously known for drafting power bats early, Minnesota has moved off of that strategy a bit in recent years (besides Walker Jenkins in 2023) and certainly went a different route with Marek Houston. He's one of the more interesting prospects that got drafted in the first round this year. Recruited as a light hitting shortstop, he took the reins at the premium position for Wake Forest as a true freshman in 2023 despite hitting just .220/.328/.307 in 65 games (the most ever appearances for a Wake Forest freshman). When his bat took a step forward to the tune of a .326/.433/.516 line as a sophomore, scouts took notice. Then when he homered in his first three games of the 2025 season (while picking up ten hits in his first four games), igniting a red hot start to the season in which he carried a .400 batting average through 28 games into late March, his name rocketed towards the top of the draft. At one point he reached as high as #4 on my board, making him the top college bat in the class, but a mid-season slump in which he hit .154/.302/.192 over a 14 game stretch gave his stock a little market correction, bringing him back to the middle of the first round where he probably belonged. Houston stands out first for his glove. He is as slick as they come on the dirt, with all of the actions, body control, and twitch you look for in a plus major league shortstop. With an above average arm, he'll certainly stick there and provide value. The Tampa-area product has always been a competent hitter, with a great combination of patience and pure bat to ball to give him an above average hit tool. The approach played up in the Cape Cod League, too, where he hit .306/.465/.329 with an impressive 22.8% walk rate. In 2025, Houston traded some of his contact for power and managed to send fifteen baseballs over the fence, nearly doubling his previous career high of eight, and now looks like he could hit 10-15 home runs annually in the big leagues at peak. His power shows up almost exclusively to the pull side and plays much better with metal than with wood bats, so that piece of his game does remain a question mark. Overall, Minnesota will look to strike a balance between his previous line drive-oriented approach and his newer one in which he gets a little more coil in his load and a little more uppercut in his bat path, though he still posted very healthy contact rates with the new power-oriented approach. Houston's glove buys his bat significant slack and if he can continue to show impact with wood bats in pro ball, he should be Minnesota's every day shortstop in short order.

CBA-36: RHP Riley Quick, Alabama
Slot value: $2.69 million. Signing bonus: $2.69 million.
My rank: #33. MLB Pipeline: #38. Baseball America: #35.
Minnesota went big righty in the competitive balance round. We regularly hear about draftees starring in other sports – as quarterbacks, wide receivers, shooting guards, and sprinters – but we don't often get offensive linemen making the transition to the diamond. That's exactly what the 6'6", 255 pound Riley Quick did with such success that he earned four star recruiting grades in high school, but he's a pitcher now. The big guy missed most of the 2024 season with Tommy John surgery but was a reliable starter for Alabama in 2025 while showing big stuff to match. His fastball parks in the mid 90's with ease, touching 99 in short stints with sink though he can manipulate the shape into a more traditional four seamer or a cutter. His slider has taken a step forward this year and projects as comfortably above average, often. flashing plus with power snap. The changeup is a bit behind, but again he's working hard to gain consistency there and it should be a reliable third pitch at the big league level if a bit firm. Quick combines his size and athleticism to generate nice extension down the mound and make his already power stuff jump on hitters quicker. His command has come and gone, but it has improved with more consistent time on the mound and with a little fine tuning he could get to average in that regard. Ultimately, the ceiling here is that of a big, durable, hard throwing starting pitcher with two plus pitches and enough command to pitch deep into starts. If the changeup comes along and he holds his command, he has #2 starter upside.

2-54: SS Quentin Young, Oaks Christian HS [CA]
Slot value: $1.76 million. Signing bonus: $1.76 million.
My rank: #65. MLB Pipeline: #37. Baseball America: #56.
Here is the big power bat that we were waiting for. Quentin Young can tout Dmitri and Delmon Young as uncles, and he can swing it with both of them. Already listed at 6'6", 225 pounds, he possesses some of the loudest power in the prep class and he's shown it off everywhere he's gone. Using a big, pull-oriented swing aimed at sending the ball over the left field foul pole, he has launched pitches from high level pitchers on the showcase circuit and at home in Southern California into the stratosphere on more than a few occasions. His operation consists of a high handset, a subtle but tight coil in his hips, a slow leg kick, then a violent unwinding in which he gets his foot down about as late as any hitter I've seen. The moving parts in his swing combined with the violence in his operation does lead to fringy bat to ball, and his approach at the plate could use significant polish as well. Right now, he has the look of a 30+ home run bat with plus-plus power that could be derailed by strikeouts if he doesn't clean things up. Minnesota will work to get him more disciplined around the zone while perhaps streamlining his operation a bit to help him keep his prodigious power without selling out. Drafted as a shortstop, he almost certainly winds up at third base at some point given his size and his average speed that figures to regress a bit as he ages. Young has somewhat heavy feet that limit his range and his actions overall are somewhat raw, and his throws can get inaccurate when he's on the move. At the hot corner, he could more easily channel his massive arm strength (he has been up to 98 on the mound) and potentially become an average defender. The power and bloodlines are the real treat here and Young brings one of the more boom-or-bust profiles in this draft class. Pulling him away from an LSU commitment for slot value in the second round is nice value as well, even if I had him ranked a bit lower than most other boards.

3-88: RHP James Ellwanger, Dallas Baptist
Slot value: $893,000. Signing bonus: $1 million ($107,000 above slot value).
My rank: #91. MLB Pipeline: #76. Baseball America: #94.
James Ellwanger has been one of the better young arms in Texas for a while now, and he has done just enough to maintain that status while not fully putting things together. Elbow issues limited his freshman season at Dallas Baptist in 2024 but he put up a 2.77 ERA and an excellent 40% strikeout rate in the Cape Cod League over the summer, making up any prospect ground he lost in the spring and more. Dallas Baptist handled him very carefully this spring, and he didn't throw more than 75 pitches in a start until mid-April nor more than four innings until May. While he started strong, he hit a rough patch in the middle of the season to temper expectations until some excellent starts against Kennesaw State (6 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 8 K) and Jacksonville State (6 IP, 1 ER, 12 K) in May gave teams something to work with. His mid 90's fastball touches 99 at peak, coming in with big riding life to blow past hitters. His hard slider has looked like his best out pitch at times in his college career, though his truer curveball seemed to eclipse that in 2025 and gives him another swing and miss offering. While he'll need to iron out the consistency, there is no question that he can spin the baseball well. His firm changeup is a fourth pitch. Ellwanger moves extremely well on the mound, showing a clean delivery that produces electric stuff when he's on with strong extension down the mound. The 6'4" righty still comes with additional projection even as a college arm, and overall if you see him on his best days you'd think he could be a #2 starter. However, his command has been very inconsistent throughout his career and his 13.8% walk rate in 2025 was well above what most teams look for. Given that he has also dealt with some nagging injuries that may have impacted his operation in ways we can't see, he'll need more consistent time on the mound to find his command. He certainly has the delivery and athleticism to get there. If Minnesota can keep him on the mound and get him throwing more strikes, the stuff is electric. It could play up even further in the bullpen.

4-119: RHP Jason Reitz, Oregon
Slot value: $635,700. Signing bonus: $633,200 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #191. Baseball America: #232.
The 6'11" Sean Hjelle grew up in the Twin Cities and has carved out a career for the San Francisco Giants. The 6'11" Jason Reitz grew up in the Bay Area, and now he'll look to follow the reverse path to the big leagues back in Minnesota. Reitz began his career at Saint Mary's and while he managed just a 6.85 ERA over two seasons, Oregon loved the size and brought him up north. He was blown up by Rhode Island in his second appearance and struggled with inconsistent command throughout much of the season, but seemed to hit his stride over the second half and was trending up in the lead up to the draft. Reitz doesn't look real on the mound. His towering frame struggles to stay in the camera frame if it's too zoomed in, while his rail-thin build accentuates some of the longest limbs you've ever seen. Should he reach the majors, he would tie Hjelle and Jon Rauch as the tallest pitchers of all time. Reitz' fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches the upper 90's, while he frequently cuts it into the upper 80's to avoid barrels. He can turn it over into a truer slider, though neither pitch stands out as a true swing and miss weapon. Reitz relies heavily on a solid changeup that can really slide off the table when he gets it right, though it can be inconsistent. Despite the long legs, he mostly just steps and throws from an upright delivery, so instead of extending way down the mound and releasing in front of the hitter's face, he instead comes straight down from the clouds. The ultra steep angle creates a unique look hitters that they don't often see or practice and gives all of his pitches downward plane. If Minnesota can help him continue to improve his command while perhaps pushing a secondary pitch forward, he could be a back-end starting pitcher. Given the higher bonus than many expected, they clearly believe they can get there with some of the most unique clay in the draft.

5-149: RHP Matt Barr, SUNY Niagara JC [NY]
Slot value: $475,000. Signing bonus: $762,500 ($287,500 signing bonus).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #223.
The highest drafted JuCo prospect in this year's draft, Matt Barr signed for late third round money rather than attend Tennessee. Scouts don't usually go out of their way to watch Upstate New York JuCo ball, but every time Barr took the ball at SUNY Niagara, it became more and more apparent that they needed to make it happen. The NJCAA Division III Pitcher of the Year, he absolutely carved through the opposition up there with a 1.74 ERA and 94 strikeouts in just 57 innings. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with running action from a low slot, overpowering velocity for the competition he faced and enough to fit right into pro ball. He can really rip through a breaking ball, showing both a curve and a slider that have a chance to be above average with more consistency. For now, they stand out more for their high spin rates than their finish, and he also can drop his arm to get around the slider. At this point, Barr throws with significant effort in his low three quarters delivery and needs to tune up his command, but he is only 19 years old and has plenty of time to get thing streamlined. Meanwhile, the Buffalo-area native is extremely projectable at 6'6" and could easily hold the same velocity while easing up on his delivery as he fills out and gets stronger. It's a reliever-y profile at present, but given his age and projection, there is a ton of upside for Minnesota to tap into. Riley Quick is a stud, but Barr has a chance to be the best pitcher in this Twins class if things break the right way.

6-179: SS Bruin Agbayani, Saint Louis HS [HI]
Slot value: $361,600. Signing bonus: $380,600 ($19,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #234. Baseball America: #405.
The second of two high school bats taken by Minnesota, Bruin Agbayani is a very different player from Quentin Young. The son of former Met Benny Agbayani, a valuable outfielder around the turn of the century, Bruin brings a track record of performance and simply impressing scouts. His simple, direct left handed swing (albeit with some slight bat wrap) produces hard line drives around the field with consistency, playing up against strong showcase pitching even if he doesn't face the strongest competition back home in Hawaii. While the power is fringy for now, the ball is starting to jump off his bat a bit more and he could grow into average power as he fills out his 6'2" frame. It's a well-rounded offensive profile that projects to produce consistent if unremarkable numbers for the major league club. Defensively, he played shortstop in high school and figures to see time there at the outset of his pro career, but he figures to move to second base or left field in the long run. The arm strength is fringy and likely won't play on the left side of the infield, while his thicker lower half may cause him to slow down a hair as he ages. If he can stick at second base, he projects nicely as a bat-first starter there who can get on base and provide perhaps 10-15 home runs per season, though he'll be fighting an uphill battle if he is forced to the outfield where there would be more pressure on his bat. Agbayani had previously been committed to Michigan.

12-359: RHP Kolten Smith, Georgia
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: #172. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #330.
This is a buy low selection. Kolten Smith flashed a nice combination of stuff and pitchability over his first two years at Georgia even if his ERA began with a five in both, and coming into his junior season he was considered a top two to three round prospect. Unfortunately, the command stagnated in 2025 and he battled inconsistency on his way to his third straight 5+ ERA season, though he did run a nice 31.4% strikeout rate while again seeing time both in the rotation and bullpen. The fastball sits in the low 90's and peaks around 96, and he can work in different variations of running or riding life but overall it's an average pitch. More often than not, he'll cut the fastball a bit around 90 to keep it off barrels, and indeed he gets better results doing so. Beyond the cutter, Smith works in a full spectrum of breaking balls with a tighter slider and a truer curveball, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. There's a changeup too, though it's fringy. There was hope that if he could maintain average command, his deep arsenal and strong 6'3" frame would make him a solid #3 or #4 starter. Instead, with his command remaining shaky and his fastball looking a bit generic, he projects more as a long reliever. There are a lot of building blocks here that could still bring the Central Florida native towards that ceiling as a back-end starting pitcher.

Thursday, August 15, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

The Twins broke character by waiting until the their third pick to take a true power bat, and overall collected together a draft class full of really interesting players. It was a hitter-heavy class, beginning with seven hitters in their first eight picks and finishing with twelve pitchers in their final fourteen picks. Interestingly, it seems they targeted aggressive hitters who go up hacking, deciding "walk rate and chase rate be damned, give me guys who can hit." Spurning the more tempered approach at the plate does mean the Twins got some seriously talented bats who perhaps fell a bit in the draft due to that propensity to expand the zone, something the Twins believe they can fix.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-21: SS Kaelen Culpepper, Kansas State {video}
Slot value: $3.93 million. Signing bonus: $3.93 million.
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #31. Baseball America: #34.
Known for their love of power bats, the Twins changed things up this time around and started things off with a more well-rounded profile in Kaelen Culpepper. A three year starter at Kansas State, he has seen his stock tick up throughout his time in Manhattan, first by a breakout with the bat as a sophomore and then by impressive glovework as a junior. Culpepper doesn't have a carrying tool on offense, rather a lack of weaknesses. He's not overly physical, listed at 6', 185, but he whips the bat around well for a quick right handed swing and knocks hard line drives around the field. The power right now is fringy, and given his size and approach I believe it will remain that way long term. Meanwhile, he's fairly aggressive in the box but controls the strike zone well, making adjustments in at bats to keep his strikeout rates down and showing above average pure bat to ball. At peak, it could be a .270-.280ish type hitter with 10-20 home runs annually. What made the difference in 2024, though, was his defense. A third baseman for his first two seasons in Manhattan (I watched a ground ball bounce over his head in Lubbock during his freshman season), he slid over to shortstop in 2024 and really impressed scouts, who now believe he has a shot to stick there. Although not the most explosive runner, he moves gracefully around the dirt and makes all the routine plays and then some, with plenty of arm strength to throw on the run. Even if he ultimately moves back to third base in pro ball, he'll be doing so as a potential plus defender at the hot corner rather than as the above average one he was initially projected as. That really helps the offensive profile stick out a little more, especially if he sticks at shortstop which the Twins likely believe he'll do. Through five games at Low A Fort Myers, he's shown well hitting .286/.348/.571 with a home run and an even 2/2 strikeout to walk ratio.

1C-33: SS Kyle DeBarge, Louisiana {video}
Slot value: $2.77 million. Signing bonus: $2.4 million ($366,100 below slot value).
My rank: #74. MLB Pipeline: #67. Baseball America: #89.
This is a really interesting pick, as Kyle DeBarge is extremely talented but far from a traditional profile. A three year starter at Louisiana, he broke out as a sophomore in 2023 and established himself as one of the top mid-major prospects in the country as a pure contact hitter. Then in 2024, he tripled his home run output from seven to 21 with only a modest increase in strikeout rate from 8.3% to 10.3%. DeBarge stands just 5'9", 175 pounds, but has really established a potent offensive profile. He has a very quick bat from the right side and in 2024 proved adept at driving the ball in the air to his pull side and that's where most of his power came from. DeBarge was able to get away with this approach due to his plus bat to ball ability, making a ton of contact both inside and outside the zone. He's a bit aggressive at the plate and has never run a walk rate above 8.6% in any individual season, but the approach works and he rarely strikes out. The Louisiana native's power will be tested in pro ball, as he didn't hit for much impact in the Cape Cod League (.267/.336/.297) and likely won't be hitting many opposite field home runs with wood bats. Still, a high-average type with some pull-side juice is a nice package, especially when you consider his defensive value. He's a plus runner that glides around the dirt and has the range to stick at shortstop, while his solid arm gives him a good shot to stick there, too. If the power doesn't come with him from metal to wood bats, he'll fit right in as a versatile utility infielder. Age works in DeBarge's favor as well, as he only turned 21 shortly after the draft and was younger than most college juniors. So far through seven games at Low A Fort Myers, he's hitting .276/.382/.414 and has already stolen seven bases.

2-60: 3B Billy Amick, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $1.45 million. Signing bonus: $1.45 million.
My rank: #39. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #29.
Billy Amick is the first true power hitter drafted by the Twins this year, and he's another one that will be interesting to follow. A South Carolina native, he began his career at Clemson and after picking up just two (2) hits as a freshman, broke out for a ridiculous sophomore season in which he hit .413/.464/.772 for the Tigers. Having played mostly first base and DH at Clemson, he wanted the opportunity to showcase his defense and slide over to third base, but the Tigers were content with using Blake Wright at the hot corner. Amick transferred to Tennessee and got the opportunity to make the position change, where his defense was better than expected and elevated his profile. While he's still a little rough over there, he showed enough spring in his step and enough arm to warrant a chance to continue playing there in pro ball and prove himself. Meanwhile, the Twins are buying the bat. He has true plus power that produces some elite exit velocities with a direct, leveraged right handed swing, and he started tapping that power more often in games in 2024 as began turning on and elevating the ball better. Amick has always been an extremely aggressive hitter, and while he started the 2024 season hot, that aggressive approach began to get him in trouble in SEC play where he struck out almost a quarter of the time. Scouts love the way he accesses his power and the Twins are confident he'll continue to do it in pro ball, as he's always found a way to hit for impact at every stop. If he does, he could hit 30+ home runs annually with something of an early-career Paul DeJong offensive profile. So far through seven games at Low A Fort Myers, he's reversed to a hit-over-power profile at .321/.406/.393 with a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio.

CBB-69: LHP Dasan Hill, Grapevine HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $1.17 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($829,500 above slot value).
My rank: #59. MLB Pipeline: #52. Baseball America: #48.
The Twins spent their largest bonus overage on Dasan Hill, a prep lefty with all the ingredients to become an impact starting pitcher. Hill has a low 90's fastball that has ticked up as high as 96 this spring, and it's likely to continue moving up. He has an above average slider with great depth across the plate, while his truer curveball and changeup look to be solid big league pitches in their own right. Meanwhile, he repeats his delivery well and shows above average command of all of his pitches, making for an extraordinarily well-rounded profile for a prep. Hill is 6'5" and has a ton of room to continue filling out, which could help his entire arsenal take a leap. He has a chance to move quicker than the typical prep arm with a really nice combination of floor and ceiling, especially considering his left handedness. As a lanky prep lefty with a well-rounded arsenal and above average command from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, he's bound to receive Clayton Kershaw comparisons, though of course Kershaw is the best of his generation. In order to become an ace, Hill will likely need to add another tick or two of velocity as he fills out that frame, all while maintaining his command and executing his secondaries. While that's a tall task, he's well on his way to becoming at least a mid-rotation starter. The Twins gave him close to the slot value for the #47 pick in order to pull him away from a Dallas Baptist commitment.

3-96: C Khadim Diaw, Loyola Marymount {video}
Slot value: $759,700. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($162,200 above slot value).
My rank: #173. MLB Pipeline: #163. Baseball America: #338.
Khadim Diaw is another interesting one for the Twins, coming in with less track record than most collegians and more upside than you might expect. He didn't play much as a freshman, showed well as a sophomore, demolished the Alaska League over the summer (368/.510/.474), then was limited to just twenty games as a junior with thumb and wrist injuries but hit .432/.500/.716 (!) in that stint. Diaw has just never, ever stopped hitting. His approach has varied throughout his time in school, at times more patient but much more aggressive in the small sample this spring. Despite the inconsistent approach, he has always made a ton of contact no matter where he's gone both inside and outside the zone, looking like a potential above average hitter overall. The power hasn't entirely manifested itself in games, but the natural loft in his right handed swing and the strength on his 6'1" frame give him average raw power that could translate to 15-20 home runs per season in the majors. If he cleans up his approach, he's a sleeper to become one of the better hitters in this class. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles native has seen time behind the plate and the Twins want to try him out back there. He can be a bit slower with his actions, especially in his transfer, but the Twins likely see his lack of consistent experience back there as an opportunity to really clean things up. Diaw does have a strong arm once he gets it going and he's a pretty good athlete, and when you combine that with his extreme youth (still 20 on draft day), he has the ingredients to make it work if he really dedicates himself to catching. If not, he likely fits in a corner outfield spot, where there will be more pressure on his bat. Through seven games at Low A Fort Myers, he's hitting .259/.375/.259 with a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio.

4-126: OF Jaime Ferrer, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $567,400. Signing bonus: $425,550 ($141,850 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #360.
Jaime Ferrer was one of those names that was on my radar as the draft approached, but I never got around to getting him onto the final list. Though he didn't get much love from national publications despite playing for a very visible College World Series program, the Twins got him for a bit of a haircut here in the fourth round and he very much fits their prototypical target. Ferrer was a solid all-around hitter for the Seminoles in his first two seasons before breaking out for 22 home runs as a junior without sacrificing contact, putting him on the pro radar. He stands out first for his power, which played up to plus in games in 2024 as he consistently launched the ball to his pull side with tremendous authority. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame and can really blast the ball. Though he's a very aggressive hitter who doesn't walk a whole lot, he makes pretty good contact and had no issue with Cape Cod League pitching last summer (.313/.420/.458) so the hope is that he can have close to a fringe-average hit tool in pro ball. The bat will have to play, because he's a fringy runner that will be limited to a corner outfield spot, though he handles himself well out there and has enough arm to play right field. If he maintains his frame and doesn't slow down with age, the Puerto Rico native has a chance to be an above average defender there in right. He's off to a slower start at Low A Fort Myers, slashing .143/.296/.238 with a 4/3 strikeout to walk ratio over six games.

6-188: C Derek Bender, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $320,800. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($23,300 below slot value).
My rank: #187. MLB Pipeline: #189. Baseball America: #178.
Derek Bender was a hard one for me to figure out, so it will be interesting to see what the Twins do with him in pro ball. Originally from the Albany area, he moved down to the Myrtle Beach area for high school and stayed in his new hometown for college. After an unremarkable freshman season, he put up a big sophomore season and proceeded to tear up the Cape Cod League to the tune of a .362/.433/.579 line and seven home runs in forty games. That sent his stock soaring and he had considerable top three round interest entering the spring, but was ultimately more good than great for the Chanticleers and found himself signing slightly below slot value in the sixth round. So who is he? Bender has a sturdy 6'1" frame and utilizes a simple, effective right handed swing to tap above average raw power very consistently in games, including with wood bats on the Cape. He has always been an aggressive hitter, but tempered his aggression just enough in 2024 to raise his walk rate from 5.7% as a sophomore to 12.4% as a junior, though that was more a product of him getting less to hit in general. Bender is not much of an athlete, generating his power more from strength than from bat speed and showing below average speed on the bases and in the field. Like Khadim Diaw, he has some experience behind the plate and the Twins want to see what he can do there, but Diaw in my opinion is more likely to stick back there long term. If Bender ends up at first base long term, which is likely, there is a lot of pressure on his bat and his performance at Coastal Carolina probably projects him more as a platoon bat than as an every day guy. However, you don't hit like he did on the Cape by accident, so the upside is there. So far at Low A Fort Myers he's hitting .286/.400/.429 with a home run and a 6/3 strikeout to walk ratio in six games.

11-338: LHP Michael Carpenter, Madison College [WI] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $508,500 ($358,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Twins had leftover bonus pool money going into day three, so they dumped a hefty amount into an Upper Midwest product in Michael Carpenter. He grew up in Hartland, Wisconsin, an outer suburb of Milwaukee, then headed up to the best baseball program in Madison for school. As it turns out, as a sophomore in 2024 he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the country, just mowing down Wisconsin and Illinois JuCo hitters with a 1.03 ERA and a 111/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings. At one point, he tossed 45 consecutive scoreless innings and didn't allow a run between March 24th and May 10th. Carpenter has a low 90's fastball that can tickle the mid 90's, coming in with run and sink from a three quarters arm slot. His breaking ball dives across the plate with nice depth while his changeup gives him a third big league quality pitch. Meanwhile, he doesn't throw with much effort and repeats his delivery well, enabling him to show above average command from the left side. It's not the most exciting profile in the world, but much like competitive balance pick Dasan Hill, he's a very well-rounded pitching prospect that has a good chance to become a big league starting pitcher. He's also very young for his class and didn't turn 20 until after the draft. Carpenter has previously been committed to East Carolina but turned pro when the Twins gave him early fifth round money.

17-518: 3B Jay Thomason, Air Force {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $50,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
There are only two former Air Force cadets in the majors – Pirates rookie sensation Paul Skenes, who transferred to LSU after two years in Colorado Springs, and Twins reliever Griffin Jax. The Twins are doubling up now bringing on Jay Thomason, one of the most decorated hitters in academy history. He didn't play much as a freshman, but over the past three seasons, he has demolished the ball pretty much nonstop and finished with 58 career home runs, an all time academy record, and slashed .348/.435/.687 over 194 games. He's a sturdy, strong 6'1" left handed hitter that starts in a crouch with an open stance, unloading on the ball with above average power especially to the pull side. He's also a fairly aggressive hitter that strikes out a bit more than you'd like, especially given that he was playing in a mid-major conference, but that's the tradeoff for power at this stage in the draft. The Alabama native has played mostly third base for the Falcons but has also seen time at second base and in the corner outfield spots, and he figures to be playable on the dirt in pro ball. A senior sign, he did turn 22 back in April. He's picked up four hits in nineteen at bats (.263 AVG) at Low A Fort Myers and has yet to walk or collect an extra base hit.

Sunday, September 17, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

The draft lottery did the Twins beautifully. Despite finishing close to .500 on the season, they got bumped all the way up to the fifth pick in a year where there just so happened to be a clear top five talents. All they had to do was wait around and see which of the five made it past the top four picks, and their pick was made for them. Including that first pick, Walker Jenkins, this turned out to be a high school-heavy draft for them as they signed four of them in their first six picks and added two more high schoolers at the end of the draft, though they didn't sign. The Twins also started off with three bats in their first four picks, but after that only signed one more hitter the rest of the way, so the class itself is extremely pitching-heavy. Many of the college arms in this class are slight reclamation projects that had better sophomore seasons than junior seasons, with Minnesota believing in its ability to get them back to where they were.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-5: OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] {video}
Slot value: $7.14 million. Signing bonus: $7.14 million.
My rank: #3. MLB Pipeline: #4. Baseball America: #4. Prospects Live: #4.
Of course the Twins could have chosen an under slot candidate like Rhett Lowder or Chase Dollander in this spot, but with four of the clear top five talents gone in the first four picks, their decision was largely made for them. And you won't hear them complaining one bit, as Walker Jenkins is a potential superstar who I felt to be the top high school player in the country. This is about as complete a hitter as you will find in the high school ranks with few holes in his profile even under a microscope. He has easy plus power already and could grow into plus-plus power as he continues to fill out his 6'3" frame, though he's already plenty strong as is with an ideal build. The ball really jumps off his bat and that power plays to all fields and against good competition with ease. Not just a slugger, he's an excellent pure hitter that takes professional at bats and looks unfazed against elite competition. His swing could get long in the past, which was never an issue given his pitch selection and hand-eye coordination, but he's tightened that up as well and projects as a plus hitter. It's a smooth, efficient left handed operation where he keeps his hands tight and whips the barrel through the zone, creating natural loft that makes the most of his prodigious strength. He could profile for 30+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages. In the field, his above average and instincts speed enable him to play a solid center field for now, with a plus arm that will make him an above average right fielder at minimum. The Twins are believers in his ability to shake off internal competitors and make center field work in the long term, which has a very good chance of happening so long as he doesn't slow down with age. Lastly, teams have raved about his makeup, which is the cherry on top of a great all-around profile. Jenkins had some nagging injury concerns earlier in his high school career but has been completely healthy in 2023, dispelling any worries there. His pro debut couldn't have gone much better, either, as he slashed .362/.417/.571 with three home runs and a 14/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fort Myers.

CBA-34: RHP Charlee Soto, Reborn Christian HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $2.48 million. Signing bonus: $2.48 million.
My rank: #30. MLB Pipeline: #28. Baseball America: #32. Prospects Live: #24.
Every January, some kid in Florida puts on a show and becomes the spring's first riser. That was Charlee Soto this year, who already had first round buzz to begin with. Though he plateaued a bit as the season wore on, the impression was a loud one and the Twins are adding one of the hardest throwing high schoolers in the country. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touched triple digits early in the season with arm side run. Soto shows a hard slider with sweep and late bite that looks like an above average pitch, while his changeup has really come around as of late and will give him at least a third above average pitch, if not a true plus offering. The 6'5" righty is extremely physical for his age, and lately he's begun to grow into his large frame. The delivery has become less rigid and he's toned down the effort a bit, though he still has some room to improve in that area as he can lose the strike zone pretty quickly when he tries to throw 100. Soto is extremely young for a high school senior, having turned 18 more than a month after the draft, and has plenty of time to learn who he is as a pitcher. The Twins think they have another potential front of the rotation weapon after having traded away a somewhat similar prospect in Chase Petty, though Petty was a better athlete and Soto has more raw physicality. 

2-49: SS Luke Keaschall, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: $1.74 million. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($241,500 below slot value).
My rank: #63. MLB Pipeline: #90. Baseball America: #55. Prospects Live: #88.
The Twins are getting a very interesting prospect in Luke Keaschall. He began his career at San Francisco, known for producing Adam Cimber and the Zimmer brothers (Kyle and Bradley) but not too much else lately. There he started nearly every game in his two seasons and performed both summers in the Cape Cod League (combined .280/.345/.403), earning a transfer opportunity to Arizona State. His numbers only grew against better pitching, slashing .353/.443/.725 with 18 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 28/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, and he pushed his way into the second round. Despite slugging over .700 this year, for me, Keaschall stands out most for his bat to ball ability. He has an extremely adjustable right handed swing that helps him get to balls all over the zone while still elevating them with authority. He's an aggressive hitter, but he rarely swings and misses even when he chases and given his ability to do damage on balls out of the zone, that's not a huge issue for me, though it does lead to a low walk rate. After hitting 12 home runs in 110 games over two years at San Francisco, he broke out for 18 in 55 games for Arizona State, though there's reason to be a bit skeptical of his ultimate power production in pro ball. With average exit velocities, most of his power plays to the pull side when he turns on it, and at 6'1", 190 pounds he's not very physical. Playing in Tempe, Arizona during a time of heightened offense in college baseball inflates the numbers a bit, and he could come back down to earth with wood bats and more neutral settings in pro ball. Still, with his innate ability to manipulate the barrel, he should be able to put out 10-15 home runs per season while hitting for a good average. The Santa Cruz native is also a versatile defender that has shown well at multiple positions, though to this point he's a master of none. He's an above average runner that can cover some ground in the outfield and has seen plenty of time at shortstop, though his overall tools are a bit light for the latter and he likely fits better at second base going forward. He's very young, having turned 21 more than a month after the draft, which could give him a little more time to fill out. So far, the Twins are moving him quickly and he has been up to the task, slashing .288/.414/.477 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 25/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games between the Florida Complex League, Low A Fort Myers, and High A Cedar Rapids.

3-82: OF Brandon Winokur, Edison HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $859,700. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($640,100 above slot value).
My rank: #122. MLB Pipeline: #74. Baseball America: #86. Prospects Live: #197.
The Twins spent big on Brandon Winokur, giving him the same signing bonus as second rounder Luke Keaschall in order to sign him away from a UCLA commitment. Winokur is a special talent that hasn't quite put it all together yet but comes with a ton of upside. He stands out with a big, projectable 6'5" frame that's about as ideal as they come, and he's already begun to grow into it. He shows above average power at this point from a leveraged right handed swing, and that should get to plus as he fills out. Though he's disciplined at the plate and everything is trending in the right direction, the swing is still a bit raw. It can get flat at times, while his noisy load and long arms lead to swing and miss in the zone against higher quality stuff. That's nothing new for lanky young hitters, who often take more time to learn to control their barrel within the zone, but it's certainly an extra piece of development and something to note. The Southern California native is a great athlete that has turned in plus run times and shows off a cannon arm, having touched 96 as a pitcher for Edison High School. If he doesn't slow down as he fills out, this could lead to a future in center field, though becoming an above average right fielder is more likely than not. As with his offense, his defense is a bit raw and will need to be cleaned up a bit. It's a profile that needs a lot of work, but it's also the kind of profile that could explode with the right kind of pro coaching. There's five tool upside here even if it comes with considerable risk. He was productive in the Florida Complex League, slashing .288/.338/.545 with four home runs and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 games.

4-114: RHP Tanner Hall, Southern Miss {video}
Slot value: $586,000. Signing bonus: $510,000 ($76,000 below slot value).
My rank: #101. MLB Pipeline: #92. Baseball America: #113. Prospects Live: #124.
Tanner Hall brings more of an old school profile on the mound, giving a nice contrast to the power armed Charlee Soto. He was untouchable as a sophomore at Southern Miss (2.81 ERA, 146/14 K/BB) and after an inconsistent first half of his 2023 season, got hot down the stretch and finished with a 2.48 ERA and a 124/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings. One of college baseball's great workhorses whether he has his best stuff or not, Hall was one of just two Division I pitchers (along with Cal State Northridge's/West Virginia's Blaine Traxel) to throw one hundred innings in both 2022 and 2023. He gets it done with an unremarkable fastball, sitting around 90 with running and sinking action and scraping 94-95 at his peak. His slider is an above average sweeper that misses bats, while his plus changeup is easily his best pitch with the bottom falling out just before it reaches the plate. He leans heavily on that changeup, often willing to double, triple, or quadruple up on it. Hall's command took a slight step back in 2023, but it likely projects as plus down the line with his ability to locate his full arsenal to all four quadrants of the zone. His offspeed stuff helps him miss bats, but in order to create some margin for error in pro ball, he'll need to add a tick of velocity to his fastball. The 6'1" righty is not overly physical or projectable so it's not a given that he'll find it, which could lead to a future in the bullpen where he can more effectively pitch off his changeup like he did in college. Still, it's hard to argue with a guy who ran a 29.4% career strikeout rate at Southern Miss compared to just a 5.2% walk rate, two numbers that correlate strongly to pro success. He could become a #4 starter with a little bit more velocity.

5-150: RHP Dylan Questad, Waterford HS [WI] {video}
Slot value: $412,600. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($77,400 above slot value).
My rank: #200. MLB Pipeline: #194. Baseball America: #95. Prospects Live: #309.
After grabbing their first five picks out of southern North Carolina, Florida, Arizona (by way of California), Southern California, and Mississippi (by way of Louisiana), respectively, the Twins finally got out of the palm tree states to bring in a kid out of the Upper Midwest. Dylan Questad will come to the Twin Cities by way of Waterford, Wisconsin, about halfway between Milwaukee and Madison, so he'll be their first draftee this year that is no stranger to the cold. The former Arkansas recruit has a power right arm, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching 97 with huge riding action. His secondary stuff is more of a work in progress, with his curveball being his most established offspeed pitch and showing average at its best. He's also working in a slider and changeup that have caught up to the curveball, though none in particular stand out as putaway pitches just yet. The 6'1" righty is pretty filled out at this point with a sturdy frame, but does throw with some effort that can impact his command. While the fastball projects as a plus pitch, it can get hit because his secondary stuff doesn't play well off of it yet and because he can fall behind in the count and be forced to throw it over the plate. The Twins will work hard to develop that secondary stuff and keep hitters off his fastball, with the hope that he can become a mid-rotation starter down the line. If the command doesn't come around, he could fall back as a bullpen option that focuses on one secondary pitch and hopes to add another tick to that power heater.

9-267: RHP Jack Dougherty, Mississippi {video}
Slot value: $179,000. Signing bonus: $160,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jack Dougherty has spent three years as a swingman for Ole Miss, though he did look better as a sophomore in 2022 (4.91 ERA, 61/16 K/BB in 44 IP) than he did as a junior in 2023 (6.27 ERA, 65/22 K/BB in 60.1 IP). He sits in the low 90's with his running fastball and can get into the mid 90's early in starts. The slider has added power and gives him at least an average secondary option, while he's mixing in a newer curveball and changeup now as well. While the fastball velocity isn't overwhelming, he maintains it through his starts, so the focus for the Twins will be on finding more consistency in his offspeed stuff. The 6'4" righty is plenty physical with a pretty easy delivery, and he has maintained single digit walk rates all three years in Oxford. He has a shot to crack it as a #5 starter if that secondary stuff comes along.

10-297: LHP Ross Dunn, Arizona State {video}
Slot value: $168,100. Signing bonus: $150,000 ($18,100 below slot value).
My rank: #174. MLB Pipeline: #140. Baseball America: #187. Prospects Live: #149.
Arizona State's top two transfers this past season came from opposite coasts and had opposite seasons. Luke Keaschall (San Francisco) established himself as perhaps the best all-around player on the roster and pushed his way from preseason third round projections to a second round selection, while Ross Dunn (Florida State) was extremely inconsistent and fell from second round projections to a tenth round selection. They both come together again in the Twins organization, where Minnesota thinks they can get Dunn back to what made him such an intriguing prospect. He's coming off an up and down season in which he posted a solid 4.27 ERA despite the hitter friendly conditions, adding an 84/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings that probably tells a better story. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent, dipping below 90 at times but frequently touching as high as 96 at others. His slider flashes plus at its best but doesn't always get there, while his changeup looks like a solid average pitch. Dunn has the kind of strong 6'3" frame you like in a pitcher, utilizing an athletic drop and drive delivery that creates some deception. He doesn't throw with a ton of effort, but the command has never materialized and he is still below average in that regard. Between the lack of command and in the inconsistent stuff, there's a lot the Twins need to line up to make a starter out of Dunn, with the more likely projection being that of a fastball/slider lefty reliever.

11-327: RHP Ty Langenberg, Iowa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #204. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #259. Prospects Live: #353.
Ty Langenberg, like Ross Dunn, was a lot of scouts' pick to click coming into the 2023 season but unfortunately didn't take that next step forward. He finished with a respectable 4.15 ERA and an 86/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, fairly similar numbers to what he had in 2022. Langenberg sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95 at peak with some running action. His slider flashes above average when he gets good sweeping action on it, while he splits the difference with a cutter and also shows an above average changeup. His whole arsenal is searching for its identity a little bit, with inconsistent movement patters that flash promise but rarely show consistency. The 6'2" righty is very athletic on the mound with some projection and a delivery he repeats well for above average command. Between the size, athleticism, and command, it's great clay for the Twins to try to get creative with and mold into a big league starting pitcher. Iowa is one of the more data-heavy programs, though, and if they couldn't find a way to put it all together for Langenberg after having success with Adam Mazur and Brody Brecht, I'm a little concerned. But he's still in a solid spot and this is a great find in the eleventh round. He's also somewhat of a hometown pick for Minnesota, having grown up three and a half hours south of the Twin Cities on I-35 in the northwestern Des Moines suburb of Urbandale, Iowa. He has had mixed results so far in pro ball, having allowed four runs (three earned) in 7.1 innings while striking out five and walking four between brief stops in the Florida Complex League and Low A Fort Myers.

Sunday, August 21, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

I really like what the Twins did here, especially with their first couple of picks. Brooks Lee, in my opinion, was the best college player available in the entire draft and they got him for a small over slot bonus at #8, while Connor Prielipp has a top-ten profile if he had actually been healthy and Tanner Schobel should not have lasted to #68. That's a very, very good top three. Minnesota had to shift gears a little bit to save some money later on, picking up a slew of high-floor guys that should be able to contribute in reserve roles, in the back of the rotation, or in middle relief. I do think guys like fifth rounder Ben Ross and fourteenth rounder Omari Daniel come with interesting upside. In all, it was a middle infielder-heavy draft with seven players drafted as shortstops, and most of them have a chance to at least compete to stick there.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-8: SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly. My rank: #5.
Slot value: $5.44 million. Signing bonus: $5.68 million ($232,600 above slot value).
The Twins have to be thrilled that Brooks Lee was still available to them after getting interest as high as the first overall pick. In my opinion the best college player available, period, Lee has a chance to fly through their system and be one of the first hitters from this class to reach the majors. A highly touted prospect out of San Luis Obispo High School in California, he priced himself out of the draft with a firm commitment to play for his father at Cal Poly. He continued to build his stock throughout his time at school, including a fantastic junior season in which he slashed .357/.462/.664 with 15 home runs and a 28/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. Lee perhaps stands out most for elite bat to ball skills, making a ton of contact both inside and outside the strike zone. He was a bit of a bad ball hitter early in his career, but he cut down on his chases in 2022 and his walk rate more than doubled from 7.2% to 16.1% while his strikeout rate dropped from 13.6%, which was already low, to 9.8%. Most guys with contact rates like that are slap hitters, but Lee shows above average raw power from both sides of the plate and taps all of it in games, with a chance for plus power down the line as he continues to develop. He regularly finds the barrel and hits screaming line drives around the field, and now that he's only swinging at pitches in the zone, there's not much soft contact to be found. He's a shortstop for now, with good feel for the position and the chance to stick there if he doesn't get bumped by a better defender, but his long term position may be third base because his build lends itself more to strength than quickness. The ceiling here is an Anthony Rendon-type of player, which ain't half bad given he's a high probability major leaguer with very low bust risk. He has taken to minor league pitching well, slashing .340/.386/.491 with two home runs and a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games between the Florida Complex League and High A Cedar Rapids.

2-48: LHP Connor Prielipp, Alabama. My rank: #30.
Slot value: $1.62 million. Signing bonus: $1.83 million ($202,300 above slot value)
Connor Prielipp is one of the more enigmatic arms in this class and it will be very interesting to track his progress. He was utterly untouchable when he first reached campus at Alabama, tossing 26 shutout innings on just nine hits, six walks, and 43 strikeouts over his first five career starts, between the four in the shortened 2020 season and his 2021 season opener. However, he went down with an elbow injury after that first start, then only threw one inning in each of his next two starts after a lengthy absence. The end result was Tommy John surgery, which subsequently wiped out his entire 2022 season as well. So now we're left with a kid who dominated for 26 innings against mediocre mid-major competition a long time ago, got knocked around by Auburn and LSU last year, and hasn't pitched in a game since. Though it is important to note that he came back and pitched at the MLB Draft Combine in June and left evaluators, particularly the Twins scouting department it appears, very impressed. When Prielipp is on the mound, he has nasty stuff that fist much better in the first round than the second. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has been up to 97-98 at peak, coming in from a steeper slot. His best pitch is a true plus slider that just darts under bats at the last second, while he's flashed an above average changeup in his limited looks as well. It's an exceptional three pitch mix from a lefty, especially given that he repeats his delivery well and fills up the strike zone with above average command. The 6'2" lefty has projection remaining and is fully healthy now, showing everything you want to see from a potential frontline starter except the track record. Tommy John affects us all it seems and he appears durable otherwise, but it is a big risk to take a 21 year old pitcher whose entire track record consists of 28 innings a long time ago, with the 26 most effective coming against weaker competition. Additionally as a fun aside, Prielipp gives the Twins another Upper Midwesterner as a native of Tomah, Wisconsin, a small town on I-94 about halfway between Madison and Eau Claire only two and a half hours from the Twin Cities.

CBB-68: SS Tanner Schobel, Virginia Tech. My rank: #45.
Slot value: $1 million. Signing bonus: $1 million.
The Twins were heavily tied to Virginia Tech outfielder Gavin Cross with their first selection, and that may have been the pick had Brooks Lee not fallen into their laps. Instead, they'll grab another Hokie sixty picks later, and it's a good one. Tanner Schobel has been a steady riser throughout his two seasons in Blacksburg, culminating with a fantastic season in 2022 in which he slashed .362/.445/.689 with 19 home runs and a 40/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, at times outshining Cross himself. Schobel isn't a big guy at a listed 5'10", 170 pounds, but he plays much bigger. He takes big hacks from the right side of the plate and can really turn on the ball with above average power to the pull side, but he stays under control and can send line drives the other way as well. He's a patient hitter that is willing to work counts, keeping his strikeout rates down and his walk rates high. The power definitely plays best to the pull side, and some teams don't think it will play as well with wood bats, but the Twins (and I) certainly do and he knows how to get to it. The Williamsburg, Virginia native also plays a very solid shortstop with solid range and enough arm strength to stick, though like Lee, he might not stick. While Lee might be too physical for the position, Schobel might not be physical enough and could be pushed by someone with more explosive athleticism, though he does have enough arm. The floor here is that of a utility infielder but I think he'll be an every day guy that can pop for 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, whether that's at second base, shortstop, or third base. So far, he's slashing .207/.281/.224 with a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 15 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fort Myers.

4-114: RHP Andrew Morris, Texas Tech. My rank: #216.
Slot value: $533,300. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($33,300 below slot value).
Andrew Morris was a sleeper on a lot of teams' boards, and the Twins were the first to pounce. He spent three years at Division II Colorado Mesa University before transferring to Texas Tech, where he put up a 4.58 ERA and a 91/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings. Despite playing four years of college ball, he's still somehow only 20 years old, making him three months younger than true sophomore Tanner Schobel. Morris sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to around 96, adding a slider and changeup that both flash above average. He comes from a deep shoulder tilt in his delivery that puts some downward plane on his pitches, but the fastball still gets some solid riding action and the angle helps his slider play up. In my look in Lubbock, his slider looked consistently above average early on, but flattened out later in the start. There are relief concerns given his smaller 6' frame, but the Denver-area native has proven durable to this point and pounds the strike zone with above average control and average command, so there is still a good shot he winds up a #4 starter. Given his combination of experience and youth, he could move through the minors quickly and reach the majors at 22. He tossed a clean inning in his Florida Complex League debut, striking out one.

5-144: SS Ben Ross, Notre Dame College. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $398,500. Signing bonus: $220,000 ($178,500 below slot value).
No, not that Notre Dame. This one's in Cleveland. Ben Ross has been one of the better hitters in Ohio regardless of level, coming off two huge seasons at Notre Dame College including a 2022 in which he slashed .392/.452/.747 with 14 home runs and a 33/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Looking for more exposure against higher level pitching than what he saw in the Division II Mountain East Conference, he went off to the Northwoods League this summer and put up more huge numbers over a large sample size, slashing .421/.502/.649 with ten home runs and a 28/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games. That run through the Northwoods League is likely what sold the Twins on Ross, who signed below slot to help them afford Brooks Lee and Connor Prielipp. The Springfield, Ohio native takes big, healthy hacks from the right side that help him drive the ball in the air with authority, but he stays under control and still struck out in just 13.9% of his plate appearances in the Northwoods League after running a 14.9% rate at NDC. A good defender at shortstop, he'll compete with Lee and Tanner Schobel for the position while moving up the ladder. It may be a bit of a steep transition to pro ball, but he's young for the class and only turned 21 in June so there's no huge rush. So far, he's slashing .222/.344/.519 with two home runs and a 7/5 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fort Myers.

6-174: SS Jorel Ortega, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $301,200. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($51,200 below slot value).
Jorel Ortega was a big reason why Tennessee outperformed initial expectations and became the best team in the country for much of the season. He didn't play in 2020 and barely saw the field in 2021, but broke out in 2022 to slash .323/.398/.672 with 18 home runs and a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. Those numbers may have been a bit inflated hitting at Tennessee's hitter-friendly home park, but hitting in the SEC is never easy no matter where you're playing. While Ortega lacks a carrying tool, he does a lot of things well. He utilizes a simple, quick right handed swing to put barrel to baseball consistently, using the whole field effectively and showing some pop to the pull side. He's an aggressive hitter that walked in just 9.5% of his plate appearances this spring, but he still makes plenty of contact and only struck out in 15.2% while facing a ton of quality pitching. It's a balanced offensive profile that could lead to 15 or so home runs per season with decent on-base percentages at best, especially if he gets a little more patient at the plate. Defensively, he again shows average tools across the board and could wind up filling any position the Twins need him at. The Puerto Rican mainly played second base in Knoxville, but also saw some time at first base and has enough arm strength to make it work at shortstop or third base. It's probably a strong utility profile going forward. Through three games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fort Myers, he has one hit in five at bats to go along with three strikeouts and two walks.

7-204: RHP Kyle Jones, Toledo. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $235,600. Signing bonus: $235,600.
Two rounds after drafting Ben Ross out of Notre Dame College in the Cleveland area, the Twins went back to the region to take another player out of a smaller northern Ohio school. Kyle Jones had a very solid season for Toledo, posting a 4.24 ERA and a 114/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.1 innings against a pretty solid MAC schedule. Jones sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which is fairly generic coming in with steep angle, but he's mainly noted for his offspeed stuff. His curveball has big 12-6 break and can send hitters diving down out of the zone to catch it, while his splitter has sharp diving action to elicit its fair share of chases as well. The 6'1" righty fills up the strike zone with above average command and has every chance to stick as a starter, though he will have to figure something out with his fastball in order to do so. That either means adding velocity to make up for its lack of bat missing qualities or finding a way to get some life on it. If he does move to the bullpen, he can pitch more effectively off his curveball and splitter as a junkballer of sorts, and given his command, he could be very effective in that role. The Detroit-area native could move fairly quickly given his advanced pitchability and the fact that he's already 22. He tossed a clean inning in his Florida Complex League debut.

10-294: SS Dalton Shuffield, Texas State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $153,800. Signing bonus: $20,000 ($133,800 below slot value).
Dalton Shuffield is already 23, so this isn't exactly an upside play. A fifth year senior that has been a mainstay in the Texas State lineup since 2018, he broke out for his best year yet in 2022 by slashing .378/.444/.668 with 13 home runs and a 32/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. That made him a major factor in leading Texas State to a #2 seed at the Stanford regional as one of the best mid major programs in the country. He has a very unique setup at the plate, leaning on his back leg while extending his front leg almost straight towards the plate, holding his hands high while waggling the bat and bouncing that front foot. Still, he consistently gets into a good hitting position and uses exceptional barrel control to make consistent, hard contact to all fields. Very undersized at 5'9", 170 pounds, the power is below average even if he did crack 13 home runs this spring, so he'll focus more on a gap to gap approach in pro ball. Given his bat to ball skills and propensity to square the ball up, that should work out just fine. He's an aggressive hitter that makes a lot of contact even on pitches outside the zone, so even though he effectively kept the strikeouts down with a great 11.7% rate in 2022, he may want to be a little more selective in pro ball. The San Antonio native is an above average runner that shows plenty of range at shortstop, pointing to a future as a utility infielder that can slap some doubles and triples for you. So far, he's slashing .333/.474/.533 with one home run and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio through five games between the Florida Complex League and High A Cedar Rapids.

14-414: SS Omari Daniel, Walker HS [GA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $232,800 ($107,800 above slot value).
Omari Daniel was originally committed to Oregon, but changed at the last minute to Northwest Florida State JC and will now attend neither as the Twins borrowed more than $100,000 against their bonus pool to grab him with a fourteenth round pick. Daniel is a physical specimen at 6'2", 185 pounds, with plenty of strength already present in his still-projectable frame. He can really rope the ball from the right side, showing big time bat speed and great leverage with some uppercut action. As he gets stronger and learns to deploy his power in games, that could translate into plus power in time. The approach is a little bit raw and he may need to spend a year in complex ball to sort things out, but that's why these physical tools are available in the fourteenth round and he's pretty young for a high schooler anyways, only having turned 18 in May. In the field, Daniel stands out for a plus arm that he deploys well, naturally playing his momentum through ground balls and getting his body moving towards first base. The Atlanta-area native is an above average runner for now that should stick at the position, though if he bulks up any further third base could be a better fit. I think I'd like to see him get quicker about making throws without a shuffle/extra step, but again he's young and has plenty of arm strength to get to that point. Be patient with this one but there is a ton of upside.

20-594: OF Korbyn Dickerson, Trinity HS [KY]. My rank: #178.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
I have to think the Twins were offering the same money to Omari Daniel and Korbyn Dickerson, and it was Daniel who was willing to sign while Dickerson will head to Louisville. The Cardinals have to be ecstatic about getting Dickerson to campus, bringing with him tremendous upside that could help him emerge a first round pick in 2025, especially given that they lost outfielders Levi Usher (Royals) and Cameron Masterman (A's) to the draft this year. He is a great athlete with plenty of whippy bat speed and the chance at plus power as he fills out his 6'2" frame, though his pitch recognition is a bit behind and he'll need some mechanical cleanup to catch up to ACC pitching. For that reason he may not start right away, but it shouldn't be long before he's playing every day and mashing. The Louisville-area native is also a plus runner that could take over for Usher in center field.

Friday, July 23, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

Full list of draftees

For the first time since Tyler Jay in 2015, the Twins selected a pitcher with their first pick, and for the first time since Kohl Stewart in 2013, it was a high school pitcher. In fact, five of the Twins' first seven picks were pitchers. Known for drafting power bats, Minnesota did grab Oklahoma State third baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the fourth round, but ultimately it looks like that wasn't the focus this year. After they took high schoolers with their first two picks (the only high schoolers they took in the draft), it looks like the focus turned to college lefties with three in the next four picks, all of whom seem to be incomplete projects who will take some professional development. I think this is an interesting class and I'm curious to see how a lot of these guys develop, and I'll say I like it, but don't love it. My favorite pick was probably the first one, Chase Petty.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-26: RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]. My rank: #24.
The Twins' first arm to begin a draft in half a dozen years, Minnesota will hope for better from Chase Petty than they got from Jay and Stewart, as the latter has thrown just 75.2 major league innings and the former never made it. Petty is the hardest thrower in the prep class, running his fastball up as high as 102 and very comfortably sitting in the low to mid 90's over longer outings. His slider is relatively inconsistent, but at its best, it looks like a true plus, even plus-plus pitch with both power and shape. The Jersey Shore product also shows a changeup that, while behind his fastball and slider, is certainly a playable pitch and is trending towards above average. Petty may be undersized at six foot even, which you would think would add further fear for the hard throwing prep demographic (I wrote in the Padres writeup how Chase Burns made me nervous), but I'm actually not terribly worried about his arm falling off. He's a bit of a freak athlete that gets down the mound extraordinarily well, driving off his back leg and beautifully converting that power into arm speed and velocity. For that reason, I think his arm has a better chance than most to hold up over increased usage, though the risk remains regardless because it's not natural to throw an object 102 miles per hour. At the back of the first round, I'd be very happy taking that risk. Slot value is $2.65 million and my guess is he'll require at least that much to sign away from a Florida commitment.

CBA-36: SS Noah Miller, Ozaukee HS [WI]. My rank: #129.
This was a bit of a surprise pick, but high schoolers can have greater variance in their stocks from team to team. That's especially true with a guy like Noah Miller, who didn't participate in many big events or face a ton of top competition. Given that his brother is Owen Miller, who recently reached the big leagues with the Indians, he was pretty well known around the industry, but some teams that value exposure to advanced competition weren't comfortable with him. However, he was a favorite of area scouts, many of whom were not only comfortable, but excited about the profile. The Twins clearly fall into that second boat, opting to go all in on a talent that was picking up steam as Wisconsin finally warmed up. He's a switch hitter with great feel to hit from both sides of the plate, showing a broad skill set from an athletic 6' frame that will translate very nicely to the Twins' development program. The rural Wisconsin product is also growing into some power and is an above average defender at shortstop, showing the kind of profile that might have gotten more love on the national scale if it had in fact been seen more often at big events. Though I have him well outside my top one hundred, I don't mind the pick at all, given that I haven't seen him as much. Minnesota has $2.05 million to spend here in the competitive balance round, but he will likely sign for less to forego an Alabama commitment.

2-61: LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan. My rank: #79.
I find Steven Hajjar to be a really interesting arm. He didn't pitch in 2019 after tearing his ACL, then looked solid in his shortened sophomore year in 2020 with a 2.70 ERA and a 24/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings. At that point, the 6'5" lefty excited evaluators with his huge frame, youth, projection, and stuff that was ticking up. That stuff was a tick down in the fall, and he never really regained it in the spring, but still showed well with a 3.09 ERA and a 110/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings. Hajjar sits in the low 90's at his best, though he did hover around 90 at times in 2021 and even dipped into the upper 80's. He also shows an inconsistent curveball and slider that can be distinctly above average pitches at their best, but which often blend into each other and get slurvy. His changeup has been more consistent so far and projects as above average in pro ball. Given his spotty command and some difficulty in repeating his delivery, it was a pretty dull profile if you saw him on the wrong days, but there's a lot to like here. The Boston-area native has shown plenty of arm strength in the past, touching 94-95 regularly last summer, and he impressed evaluators by hitting 97 with his final pitch at the MLB Draft Combine this June. He's also young for the class, not turning 21 until August, giving the Twins that much extra time to develop him and help him grow into his stuff. Unlike first rounder Chase Petty, who has very loud "now" stuff, Minnesota hopes that it can help Hajjar grow into his game and become an impact rotation piece once he gets there. He signed for slot value at $1.13 million.

3-98: LHP Cade Povich, Nebraska. Unranked.
For their third round pick, the Twins went back to the Big Ten and grabbed another lefty. Povich started off at South Mountain JC in Phoenix, then came home to Nebraska to pitch for the Cornhuskers. After an up and down 2020 season, he found consistency in 2021 and finished with a 3.11 ERA and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 innings. Standing 6'3", he doesn't quite have Hajjar's projection, with a bit of a skinnier frame and less arm strength. He's more crafty than anything else, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and scraping 93 at best. The Omaha-area native adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are useful pitches when he mixes and locates them well, which is often. I'd say the curveball is a bit behind the other two, but if he can add a tick of strength and maybe bump that fastball a bit closer to 94-95, he has some upside as a back-end starter. Otherwise, it might be more of a long relief profile. He signed for $500,000, which was $93,100 below slot value.

4-128: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Oklahoma State. My rank: #145.
It took until the fourth round, but we finally got our patented Twins power bat in Christian Encarnacion-Strand. A California Bay Area native, Encarnacion-Strand started off at Yavapai JC in Arizona and was an absolute monster, slashing .410/.482/.871 with 33 home runs over two years. He moved on to Oklahoma State in 2021, where he just kept hitting and slashed .361/.442/.661 with 15 home runs and a 50/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. The 6' right handed hitter is simply a hitting machine, consistently squaring up baseballs wherever he goes with a short, somewhat unconventional swing. He's not necessarily long through the zone, and his follow through is notably short, but his barrel is quick to the ball and he channels his above average power into that swing well. Encarnacion-Strand is an aggressive hitter who walked in only 7.5% of his plate appearances, and while he shows his fair share of swing and miss, it's not excessive. He's not a lock to stick at third base, especially in the shifting era, but his strong arm will give him a shot. He signed for slot value at $442,900.

5-159: LHP Christian MacLeod, Mississippi State. My rank: #146.
Christian MacLeod (pronounced "Ma-cloud") had an up and down season that saw his name creep into first round conversations early on, and he carried a 3.14 ERA into late May, but ultimately hit a wall and allowed 25 earned runs over his final 16.2 innings and finished with a 5.23 ERA and a 113/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings. He missed his freshman season with pneumonia and made just four starts in 2020 (albeit with a sparkling 0.86 ERA and a 35/6 K/BB), so durability was always a question and the late season skid didn't alleviate any concerns. At his best, the 6'4" lefty looks like a middle of the rotation stalwart, showing a low 90's fastball, a plus curveball, and an above average changeup, all while pounding the strike zone with a competitive edge. At other times, however, MacLeod's fastball can dip into the upper 80's, his curveball can lose its bite, and his changeup can play down to being an average pitch. Minnesota will hope a pro conditioning program and some coaching to smooth out his rigid delivery will help get him consistently to his best self, in which case he has a good shot to settle in as a consistent mid to back-end starter. Otherwise, the Huntsville native is probably destined for relief, where that delivery won't be as much of an issue and he won't have to pace himself when it comes to his stuff. Slot value is $327,200, and I figure he'll require something around there to sign.

7-219: 3B Jake Rucker, Tennessee. My rank: #165.
Jake Rucker wasn't much of a prospect early in his Tennessee career after hitting .273/.358/.339 as a freshman, but he's raked over the past two seasons to the tune of a .331/.404/.531 line, 12 home runs, and a 76/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games against a tough schedule. He shows great feel for the barrel from the right side that has enabled him to tap all of the power in his skinny 6'1" frame, proving to be one of the best hitters in a loaded Tennessee lineup. He struck out at over a 20% clip in 2021, which will be something to watch going forward, and it may necessitate sacrificing some of his power for more contact in pro ball. The Nashville-area native manned third base for the Volunteers this year and probably figures to stay there, with second base a possibility as well, and he profiles as an average defender at either. It's probably a utility profile for Rucker, but I like his bat and if he keeps hitting the way he has, he could force his way into the every day lineup eventually. That's nice value for his $250,000 signing bonus, which was $51,500 above slot value here in the seventh round.

8-249: C Noah Cardenas, UCLA. My rank: #239.
Noah Cardenas really put himself on the map by slashing .375/.476/.500 as a true freshman in 2019, and despite a quieter 2020 (.237/.367/.289 in the shortened season), he very much remained in the second round picture heading into 2021. Unfortunately, concerns about his impact ability at the plate turned out to be warranted, as he slashed a pedestrian .268/.371/.404 with five home runs and a 43/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for UCLA this year. Mostly a gap to gap line drive hitter over his first two years in Westwood, Cardenas looked for more impact this spring and that came with a slightly elevated strikeout rate, which at 17.1% still wasn't terribly high but higher than you'd like for a guy known for his strong bat to ball skills. Additionally, the Los Angeles-area native came into the season primarily known as a glove-first player that showed everything you looked for behind the plate: soft hands, a reliable arm, agility, and overall feel for the position. However, evaluators didn't see that same defender show up in 2021, where some noted that he looked a bit lazy back there. Cardenas' success in pro ball will likely hinge on him pulling his work ethic back together, but even before this spring I personally saw him more as a backup catcher than a full time starter. He ended up ranking near the very back of my rankings, which went 243 deep. Slot value is $164,700, but I could see him going slightly over slot like Rucker.

9-279: C Patrick Winkel, Connecticut. My rank: #224.
Thirty picks later, the Twins grabbed another college catcher who saw his stock fall a bit in 2021. Pat Winkel, like Noah Cardenas, had a strong freshman season, slashing .318/.361/.486 in 49 games. After missing 2020 with Tommy John surgery, he was more or less the same player in 2021, slashing .284/.357/.525 with eleven home runs and a 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. The numbers were very solid, and Winkel does have a pretty broad base of skills. There's average power in his 6'1" frame while his smooth left handed swing helps him tap it consistently, and he shored up his approach a little bit in 2021 to cut down on his strikeouts. Behind the plate, the New Haven-area native shows a good glove and an improving arm, adding to his appeal. Some evaluators see the nice individual parts but wonder if he's physical enough to put it all together in pro ball, where he'll be going up against players with louder tools. Winkel struggled in a brief Cape Cod League stint back in 2019, and overall he seems to have done most of his damage at the plate by feasting on less advanced arms. I like this package a little bit better than Cardenas, while the Twins are hoping their strong track record with college catchers (Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver) can help them turn Winkel into a surprise impact guy. Slot value is $150,500.

11-339: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
If Brandon Birdsell had been signable, he likely would have gone in the top five to seven rounds. If he had been both healthy and signable, we could have been talking about a top 100 pick. Birdsell was one of the top junior college prospects in the country last year out of San Jacinto, but he decided to head to Texas Tech instead to prove that his gains were for real and bump his draft stock further. Early in the season, that seemed to be the case, as his stuff was as nasty as ever and he pitched to a 3.06 ERA and a 36/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.1 innings. However, the Willis, Texas native was shut down in mid-April with shoulder problems and hasn't pitched since. When he was on the mound, Birdsell showed a mid 90's fastball that was touching as high as 99, as well as a short, powerful upper 80's slider, a newer curveball, and a changeup. Though not pinpoint, his command was strong enough to make everything play up, and he held that power stuff deep into his starts. The 6'2" righty doesn't have the smoothest delivery, which is very upright and features a brief pause in the back of his short arm action, so he does face some relief concerns. Personally, I don't have enough information on his shoulder to make a judgement on the health (and shoulders can be very scary), but if he does come back healthy, I see a ton of upside here. I doubt he signs though, and instead I expect him to roll the dice on a healthy return to the Red Raider rotation in 2022.

Monday, June 15, 2020

2020 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

1-27: 1B Aaron Sabato, North Carolina
2-59: OF Alerick Soularie, Tennessee
4-128: RHP Marco Raya, United South HS (TX)
5-158: OF Kala'i Rosario, Waiakea HS (HI)

Though they lost their third round pick after signing Josh Donaldson, the Twins were able to reel in a power-filled class this year, led in that regard by first rounder Aaron Sabato and fifth rounder Kala'i Rosario. Even second rounder Alerick Soularie, likely the money saver in this class, brings 20 home run potential, and the three of them could make their presence felt on the Twins' batting orders of the future down the road. Marco Raya is the lone arm in this group, an undersized right hander with an exciting four pitch mix. Aside from power, an interesting theme in this class is youth; all four picks have birthdays between June and August, making them young for their respective classes (Sabato and Soularie set to turn 21, Raya and Rosario set to turn 18).
Full index of team reviews here.

1-27: 1B Aaron Sabato, North Carolina (my rank: 31)
Aaron Sabato would fit right into the Twins' current lineup, at least in terms of his profile. Originally from the New York City suburbs, he's absolutely raked in his short career at UNC, slashing .332/.459/.698 with 25 home runs and a 72/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games. He was pitched much more carefully at the start of the 2020 season and that threw him off a little bit, but he made adjustments and drew fourteen walks to just four strikeouts while homering six times in his last seven games of the season. With Sabato, we're talking plus power from brute strength. He's built like a tank at 6'2" and 230 pounds, muscling baseballs into the stratosphere with a pretty simple hack. Scouts aren't as sold on the hit tool, as he had a fair amount of swing and miss in his game at UNC and had to sit out summer ball, though his baseball IQ has been noted and he likely gets to at least average in that regard. He's going to have to hit, because he's a mediocre defender even at first base and likely ends up at DH in the long run. Still, you're buying tremendous raw power from the right side here, the type that could produce 40 home runs annually in the majors as somewhat of a Pete Alonso comp. Slot value is $2.57 million, and as a draft-eligible sophomore, I wouldn't expect him to take much of a discount if any at all. Pre-draft profile here.

2-59: OF Alerick Soularie, Tennessee (my rank: 135)
Soularie, from the Houston area, started his career at San Jacinto Community College and transferred to Tennessee for his sophomore year, where he was an instant success and hit .357/.466/.602 with eleven home runs and a 39/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in 2019. The last calendar year has been a bit more up and down for him, as he wasn't particularly impressive in a short Cape Cod League stint over the summer (.207/.303/.345) and was inconsistent during the shortened 2020 season (.267/.392/.533, 5 HR). He's a solid average hitter across the board, showing a line drive bat with some present power and some more projected despite a smaller 6' frame, though he can be inconsistent at times with his swing mechanics. With a July birthday, he's pretty young for a college junior, which gives some hope he can iron out those mechanics with pro coaching. Soularie is an alright defender who can be a solid left fielder, but there's nothing flashy about his game out there and ultimately the bat will have to play. He could project for upwards of 20 home runs annually and solid on-base percentages at peak, though more likely finds himself in more of a platoon situation. This was likely a bit of a money saving pick for their Twins, who could take some of the $1.19 million for this slot and commit it to:

4-128: RHP Marco Raya, United South HS, TX (unranked)
The border town of Laredo, Texas isn't known for producing a ton of baseball talent, making Marco Raya the best prospect to come out of there in a long time. Firmly committed to Texas Tech, many were surprised when the Twins pulled the trigger on him in the fourth round, but it looks like they'll have the money to sign him. Good news for Raya, Target Field is just down the street – all he needs to do is hop on I-35 at its southern terminus in Laredo and hang a right about twenty hours and two thousand miles later, easy peasy. Anyways, Raya is a smaller righty at a listed 6' even, showing a low 90's fastball in addition to some really nice breaking stuff. His power curveball shows some real sharp snap, while his slider is more lateral and is a little behind the curve. He shows great feel for both, and that in addition to a loose arm and youth (doesn't turn 18 until August) make him a really fun pick to project on. There's a changeup as well, which needs work but also flashes solid fade. As a smaller guy, he's going to face relief questions, and while his delivery isn't necessarily high effort, it's also not particularly low effort either. In a way, he's a pretty similar arm to Cardinals competitive balance pick Markevian Hence (and they were born just a day apart), as both are undersized right handers with loose arms and great feel to spin the breaking ball, though Hence is a little more refined. Slot value is $442,900, though he'll likely require significantly more to sign away from Texas Tech.

5-158: OF Kala'i Rosario, Waiakea HS, HI (my rank: 90)
With their final pick, the Twins grabbed the Hawaiian Blaze Jordan. A product of Waiakea High School on the Big Island, Rosario is brings tremendous raw power from the right side of the plate, driving the ball with authority out to the deepest parts of the park. He brings that power from a sturdy 6'1" frame and healthy, powerful right handed hacks, and he has shown a solid hit tool at times. However, his mechanics will need some work, as his swing lacks much loft and he has a tendency to leak out over his front foot. Keeping him back on that back leg could help him produce even bigger raw power, and given that he's young for the class, the hope is that his approach can continue to improve and he can tap that power regularly in games. Rosario is an average defender who will end up at a corner outfield spot. That puts pressure on his bat, though scouts are confident he'll continue to get to his power and he brings huge upside to the plate. Committed to California Baptist, he might also require more than the $330,100 slot value to sign (probably not helped by the weather change between Hawaii and Minnesota – only joking, but...). Pre-draft profile here.

Undrafted: RHP John Stankiewicz, Fordham (unranked)
John Stankiewicz, a New Jersey native pitching for Fordham, is the lone undrafted free agent the Twins have signed so far. He has been absolutely dominant over the past two seasons, posting a 1.51 ERA and a 123/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings for the Rams. It's mostly a back-end starter profile here, as Stankiewicz deals in the upper 80's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches. His best offspeed is his curveball, a 12-6 breaker with tremendous depth that produces some flat out silly swings and misses, while the other two are average pitches. He's an above average strike thrower and with a durable 6'4" frame, he should be able to handle a starter's workload. There probably isn't a whole lot more velocity left in the tank, limiting his ceiling to a #4/#5 starter, but he could sit more consistently above 90 in a long relief role, where he could pitch off that curveball.

Friday, January 17, 2020

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Minnesota Twins

At this point last year, the Twins system was riding high off two breakout seasons from Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, though the two of them couldn't quite repeat this year. That's very much okay, as they're 20 and 22, respectively, and they remain arguably the top two prospects in this system. Meanwhile, a lot of other things went right, as a massive breakout from Jordan Balazovic stood at the forefront while guys like Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Travis Blankenhorn, Cole Sands, Edwar Colina, and Bailey Ober steadily increased their stock on their own. That, combined with a great draft class headlined by the boom/bust Keoni Cavaco as well as a slew of college performers, puts the system in a really nice place right now with a lot of depth around the field. If the Twins can get Akil Baddoo, Blayne Enlow, and Wander Javier to break out next, they'd be very happy.

Affiliates: AAA Rochester Red Wings, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos, High A Fort Myers Miracle, Class A Cedar Rapids Kernels, rookie level Elizabethton Twins, complex level GCL and DSL Twins

Catcher
- Ryan Jeffers (2020 Age: 22-23): Jeffers was a second round pick out of UNC Wilmington in 2018, and he's just hit and hit since being drafted. After slashing .344/.444/.502 in his pro debut in 2018, he slashed .264/.341/.421 with 14 home runs and an 83/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola in 2019, actually hitting better after the promotion (.287/.374/.483). Jeffers has a ton of pop in his 6'4" frame, and while there were questions as to how it would play with wood bats, he's answered them and more in pro ball. Additionally, he does a very nice job of controlling the strike zone, enabling him to hit advanced pitching consistently, and overall he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages at the major league level. His defense is coming along and he should be able to stick behind the plate, which could make him a starting-caliber catcher, though he should have just enough bat to profile at first base if he has to move there.
- Keep an eye on: Ben Rortvedt, Jeferson Morales

Corner Infield
- Jose Miranda (2020 Age: 21-22): Miranda was a second round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2016, and in 2019 he slashed .252/.302/.369 with eight home runs and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games, mostly at High A Fort Myers. Despite being relatively young for the level, Miranda showed a great hit tool that kept his strikeouts very low, using a quick right handed swing and great hand eye coordination to make consistent contact. The Twins hope that power will come, as he did hit 16 home runs in 2018, though the Florida State League can sometimes sap power and that may have been the case for Miranda in 2019. Tapping that power, which is entirely possible given his bat speed and 6'2" frame, will be the key to earning a starting role down the line, as he plays ordinary defense at both second and third base, not enough to set him apart. Whether he ends up at second or third will likely depend on the Twins' needs, and he probably has a larger chance of becoming a utility infielder anyways.
- Ryan Costello (2020 Age: 23-24): Costello was a 31st round pick out of Central Connecticut State in 2017, but he's really tapped his power in pro ball and was sent from the Mariners to the Twins in the Zach Duke deal in 2018. This year, he struggled a bit against advanced pitching, slashing .223/.343/.412 with 15 home runs and a 109/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola, and as a first baseman only, he's going to need more production. Fortunately, there were some positives from his tough season, as his patient approach netted him a lot of walks to boost his on-base percentage and he hit right handed pitching quite well. Given his above average power and his ability to hit righties, he has a really good shot at earning some spot starts at first base and DH to spell the right handed Miguel Sano and Nelson Cruz down the line.
- Keep an eye on: Andrew Bechtold, Chris Williams, Seth Gray

Middle Infield
- Royce Lewis (2020 Age: 20-21): It was a bit of a tough year for Lewis, the first overall pick out of a Southern California high school in 2017, but he's still only 20 years old and it doesn't hurt his stock too much. After hitting .292/.352/.451 in his first full season in 2018, he slumped to .236/.290/.371 with 12 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 123/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola in 2019, though he did hit .400/.478/.650 with a home run in the Southern League playoffs after the season. There is a whole lot to like in Lewis, as he makes easy, consistent, hard contact from the right side and has managed to tap at least some power in his wiry 6'2" frame. He can also fly on the bases, enabling him to steal 68 bases in three years, and he's quickly improving at shortstop and looks like he's going to stick there. He trusts his hit tool so much that he can get aggressive at the plate, so the next step in his development will probably be learning to work counts more effectively and get pitches he wants to hit, rather than just pitches he can hit early in the count. There is little doubt that he'll be able to make that adjustment, and the upside remains that of a 15-20 homer bat with high on-base percentages and good defense, which would make him a borderline All Star.
- Nick Gordon (2020 Age: 24): Tom Gordon's son and Dee Gordon's little brother went fifth overall out of an Orlando high school in 2014, but it's taken a long time to finish off his development as he's stalled in the upper minors. A year after smoking AA pitching and struggling in AAA, Gordon hit a little better at the level in 2019 and slashed .298/.342/.459 with four home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 65/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at AAA Rochester, fighting through nagging injuries along the way. At this point, with the emergence of Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez in the Twins' middle infield, it might be tough for Gordon to break through into a starting role before Royce Lewis catches up to him. He makes consistent line drive contact but doesn't hit for much power, and without a ton of walks, he fits more as a utility infielder than a true starter at this point with the Twins' infield depth. He could be a very fine one, and he could be an all-around asset off the bench or in spot starts in the very near future.
- Travis Blankenhorn (2020 Age: 23-24): A tough 2018 (.231/.299/.387) dented Blankenhorn's stock, but he earned it back in 2019 by slashing .277/.321/.466 with 19 home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 105/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. A third round pick out of the Pennsylvania high school ranks in 2015, he has worked his way up slowly but he shows a broad skill set that enables him to contribute in a variety of ways. His 6'2" frame and ability to find the barrel enables him to hit for some power, he limits his strikeouts to a reasonable amount, and his strong base running instincts help his fringy speed play up to efficient base stealing (38 steals in 45 career attempts, an 84.4% success rate). He's only a so-so defender that has seen time around the infield, and his bat is probably a bit too light to make up for it, so he has a shot at becoming a utility or super utility player down the road. It's a bit of a tweener profile, though, so he'll probably have to take one more step forward with some part of his game in order to stick.
- Wander Javier (2020 Age: 21): Javier signed for $4 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, but it has been a bumpy road so far for the young kid to say the least. He battled injuries in 2016 but broke out to slash .299/.383/.471 in 2017, then missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He returned in 2019 and struggled, slashing .177/.278/.323 with eleven home runs and a 116/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 games at Class A Cedar Rapids, but it's way too early to give up on him just yet. He's an explosive player with a lot of wiry strength that can produce good power, and he was able to get to it a bit in 2019 despite otherwise struggling. The Twins are hoping that he just needs another year to distance himself from the injury with more consistent at bats, and given that he'll play the whole season at 21 years old, he has a lot of time to put it behind him. With his good arm, he has a chance to stick at shortstop but could be a very fine third baseman if he doesn't. Really, it's hard to say what to expect at this point, but 2020 will be an important year for his development.
- Spencer Steer (2020 Age: 22): Steer was a bit of a sleeper when the Twins picked him up in the third round out of Oregon in 2019, and he's already starting to make people take notice after slashing .280/.385/.424 with four home runs and a 33/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Class A Cedar Rapids in his pro debut. If there's one way to describe him, it's competent. Steer understands the game all around, with a very advanced approach at the plate and the ability to find the barrel consistently from the right side. He's also a solid defender who can handle any position on the infield, and he played second, third, and shortstop in his pro debut. He looks like a utility infielder right off the bat due to the lack of power in his 5'11" frame, but I wouldn't write him off yet and he has a very real chance to hit his way to a starting job somewhere in the infield as a guy who could hit 10-15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages at his ceiling.
- Will Holland (2020 Age: 22): Holland was a fringe-first rounder heading into 2019, but an up and down junior year at Auburn dropped him to the fifth round, where the Twins happily grabbed him. He was up and down in his pro debut as well, slashing .192/.299/.376 with seven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 44/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at rookie level Elizabethton. Watching Holland play, he looks like a major leaguer with quick twitchy athleticism, smooth actions on the field, and the ability to hit for some power despite standing just 5'10". However, even coming out of a major SEC program, he's raw as a player and has the upside/floor combination you'd more expect to see in a high school draftee. He has to learn to lock down the strike zone and stay within himself at the plate, as he has a tendency to get over-aggressive and power-conscious at the plate. He has some natural power and feel for the barrel, and while he likely won't be a true power hitter, employing more of a balanced approach could help him be a real impact hitter down the road. He's also a very good defender and should stick at shortstop, which buys the bat time to develop.
- Keoni Cavaco (2020 Age: 18-19): Cavaco might have most extreme boom/bust profile in this system, having just been drafted in the first round out of a San Diego-area high school in 2019. He slashed just .172/.217/.253 with a home run and a 35/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, but that doesn't damper the Twins' excitement at all. Cavaco was a pop-up player who burst onto the scene in the spring, showing huge raw power from the right side as well as a cannon arm and a quickly improving all-around game. He generates that power from a big right handed swing, though given his overall profile as well as his tough pro debut, he might need to tone it down a bit in order to get to his power consistently in pro ball. There's also a chance he sticks at shortstop, though with his strong arm, he'd be a great fit for third base, especially given the depth up the middle in this system and the lack thereof at the corners. Additionally, with the full name of Keoni Kealakekua Cavaco, he grades as an 80 (top of the scale) in the all-important "name tool."
- Keep an eye on: Yeltsin Encarnacion, Michael Helman, Yunior SeverinoAnthony Prato, Luis Gomez

Outfield
- Alex Kirilloff (2020 Age: 22): Kirilloff was a first round pick out of a Pittsburgh-area high school in 2016, then after missing 2017 with Tommy John surgery, he broke out in 2018 by slashing .348/.392/.578 with 71 extra base hits in 130 games. His numbers weren't quite as impressive in 2019, but he still finished at .283/.343/.413 with nine home runs and a 76/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games at AA Pensacola, where he out-hit Royce Lewis. Kirilloff has the chance to be an impact hitter with his ability to make easy, consistent, hard contact from the left side, and he's already begun to tap some power. That should help him become a broad contributor at the plate in the majors, one who could hit 20-25 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, depending on how much he walks. In this case the bat is the entirety of the value, as he's an average left fielder who can hold his own. There's not much room in the Twins outfield right now, but if Kirilloff hits the way he is capable of, they will find a spot for him.
- Brent Rooker (2020 Age: 25): Rooker rode a sensational redshirt junior year at Mississippi State to becoming a Twins' competitive balance selection in 2017, and he's cracked 54 home runs in 259 games so far in the minors. 14 of those came in 2019, when he slashed .282/.399/.530 with a 95/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between AAA Rochester and some complex level rehab, though he missed time with wrist and groin problems and that likely kept him from reaching the majors. He has a ton of raw power that he generates from an explosive right handed swing and a sturdy 6'3" frame, and he's shown no problems getting to it in the minors with a .505 career slugging percentage and a .238 career ISO. He does swing and miss quite a bit, and while it hasn't impacted his game power yet in the minors, it's still something to watch once he reaches the majors. Defensively, he's below average and could even be considered a minor liability, and the Twins have tried him at first base as well as in right field. Given the depth in that Minnesota lineup, as well as the fact that Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach are coming up right behind him, it's hard to se him locking down a full time starting role unless he just rakes in Yordan Alvarez or Aristides Aquino fashion, though with his power, an explosive debut is not out of the question. I think he could lock down a starting role if given the chance and some time to prove himself, it just might be tough to get that chance in Minnesota.
- Trevor Larnach (2020 Age: 23): Larnach, a first round selection out of Oregon State in 2018, had a successful first full season in 2019 by slashing .309/.384/.458 with 13 home runs and a 124/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola, and now he's just about knocking on the door to the big leagues. Larnach has a lot of power and consistently hits the ball extremely hard, though for now it's more of a line drive approach and he's more than comfortable just spraying the ball around the field, which enabled him to hit 30 doubles this past year. If he can start to drive the ball in the air more often, he could really tap some power and hit 20-25 home runs per season, and his feel for hitting would enable him to post high on-base percentages as well. It will be interesting to see Kirilloff vs Rooker vs Larnach trying to break into that crowded Minnesota outfield. Rooker has the most power, while Kirilloff is the youngest and Larnach is perhaps the most balanced overall.
- Matt Wallner (2020 Age: 22): It's tough finding hometown players when you play in the Upper Midwest, but with Joe Mauer retired, the Twins might have found a new Minnesotan to take his place. Wallner, who grew up in Forest Lake about 25 miles north of St. Paul on I-35, was set to attend North Dakota before they closed down their baseball program, and he ended up way down south at Southern Miss. A standout career as a two-way player led to his selection in the competitive balance round in 2019, and he hit .258/.357/.452 with eight home runs and an 80/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at rookie level Elizabethton and Class A Cedar Rapids. Standing at a listed 6'5" and 220 pounds, Wallner is, as you'd expect, a power hitter. He has some of the best raw power in the system, perhaps challenged only by Brent Rooker and Keoni Cavaco, though there are questions as to his hit tool. He generates his power more on strength than bat speed, and he was a bit of a streaky hitter at Southern Miss. He'll have to keep the strikeouts down in order to hit at the higher levels, and he could have a similar profile to a left handed Rooker. One leg he does have up on Rooker is his cannon arm that could have gotten him drafted in the top five rounds as a pitcher, which makes him a solid right fielder.
- Akil Baddoo (2020 Age: 21): Baddoo went in the second competitive balance round out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2016, then hit .323/.436/.527 in his first full season to put himself on the map, albeit in rookie ball. Mixed results in 2018 (.243/.351/.419) let a bit of reality set in, but Tommy John surgery ended his 2019 season in May, after he had slashed .214/.290/.393 with four home runs and a 39/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games at High A Fort Myers. He's a solid player with a clean, powerful swing from the left side, which enables him to hit his fair share of home runs as well as plenty of balls in the gaps, which he uses his plus speed to stretch into doubles and triples. The hope was that he'd start to grow into a bit more over the fence pop in his age-20 season in 2019, but we'll have to wait and see if that happens in his age-21 season in 2020. He's also a very patient hitter that draws a lot of walks, though patience doesn't always equate to control of the zone, and he can get streaky when he falls behind in the count too often. Overall, Baddoo is a dynamic player and the Twins are really interested to see who he can be, so there will be a lot of eyes on him in 2020.
- Gilberto Celestino (2020 Age: 21): Celestino was a highly touted amateur coming out of the Dominican Republic, and he signed with the Astros for $2.5 million in 2015 before being traded to Minnesota in the Ryan Pressly deal in 2018. In 2019, he slashed .277/.349/.410 with ten home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an 85/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, continuing to show high upside while refining his overall game. Celestino is hit over power at this point, using his quick right handed swing to spray line drives all over the place, though he does have some wiry strength in his 6' frame and he could eventually hit 10-20 home runs per season. He's also a good runner that plays great defense in the outfield, making him a very well-rounded player for someone who won't turn 21 until just before spring training. He could develop in any number of ways, but the Twins like where he's heading and he could be an impact player on both sides of the ball in a few years.
- Misael Urbina (2020 Age: 18): Urbina signed for $2.75 million out of Venezuela in 2018, then had a successful first taste of pro ball by slashing .279/.382/.443 with two home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 14/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games in the complex level Dominican Summer League. It's not yet known quite how much impact he will hit for, but it is known that Urbina has a fantastic feel for hitting that enables him to make easy, consistent contact while controlling the count and drawing walks. Set to turn just 18 in April, it's likely that simple physical maturation will be enough to help Urbina start to really drive the ball consistently, and he did hit 14 doubles and five triples in just 50 DSL games in 2019. He's also a great runner who is still learning how to best deploy his speed in the outfield and on the bases, but it's an exciting overall package because he's got plenty of upside and he's right where the Twins want him to be in his development at this age.
- Keep an eye on: Gabriel MacielErnie De La TrinidadTrey Cabbage, Jacob Pearson, Luis Baez, Emmanuel Rodriguez

Starting Pitching
- Brusdar Graterol (2020 Age: 21): Graterol has been lighting up radar guns in the minors for a few years now, and after he posted a 1.92 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 61/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings between AA Pensacola, AAA Rochester, and some complex level rehab work, Twins fans got their first taste when he put up a 4.66 ERA and a 10/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 major league innings in September. With Graterol, everything starts with arm strength. He easily sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, and when he came out of the bullpen in his stint in the majors, he was hitting 100 with run and sink. That makes the rest of his stuff play up, including an upper 80's slider with short, hard bite as well as a curve and a changeup. His stuff is also difficult to pick up, as his lightning quick arm comes almost from a still position to suddenly releasing the ball in front of you at triple digits. His command is solid average, and it's likely that his success in the majors will hinge on whether it plays up or down at the major league level. The other, very important thing with Graterol is durability, as he has thrown just 223.2 pro innings in five years and missed all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery. If he can't hold up under a full season's worth of innings in the majors, he could be a lights out reliever.
- Lewis Thorpe (2020 Age: 24): After signing for $500,000 out of Australia in 2012, Thorpe missed all of 2015 with Tommy John surgery then all of 2016 with mono. However, he's made a successful return and in 2019, he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at AAA Rochester, as well as a 6.18 ERA and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 27.2 major league innings. The 6'1" lefty sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a nice curveball as well as a slider and a changeup, all of which he commands very well, and his command has enabled that stuff to play up and net him plenty of strikeouts. That's important, because the stuff on its own might be just a bit light to stick in a major league rotation, and that command should be the last little push he needs to be a #4 or a #5 starter in the near future. If he gets bumped out of that Minnesota rotation, a career as a lefty fastball/curveball reliever could still provide value.
- Jordan Balazovic (2020 Age: 21): A fifth round pick out of a Toronto-area high school in 2016, Balazovic flashed high ceiling potential over his first couple of seasons in the minors before truly breaking out in 2019. That breakout came with a 2.69 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 129/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers, showing no loss of effectiveness against the more advanced Florida State League hitters. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has added depth to his slider, which now looks like a plus pitch. His command has also been steadily improving, and with a solid changeup, he's much more of a complete pitcher than he was a year ago. Balazovic has also grown while in the Twins' system, now standing 6'5", and his long arms help his stuff play up even further. He's a bit farther off than Graterol, but his ceiling is just as high and he could be a top of the rotation guy in the not too distant future, so long as he stays healthy. His background growing up in Canada certainly doesn't hurt when it comes to pitching in cold weather in Minneapolis.
- Griffin Jax (2020 Age: 25): Jax was a standout at the Air Force Academy and was drafted in the third round in 2016, and in 2019 he posted a 2.90 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 94/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.1 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Rochester. Jax won't blow you away with his stuff, sitting in the low 90's with a sinking fastball and adding a slider and a changeup, using the latter to get most of his strikeouts. Where he does excel is with his command, which makes all of his stuff play up, and his Air Force background really shows on the mound with his competitiveness and work ethic. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the other guys on this list, but he could fight for a #4 or #5 starter role in the near future. If the stuff turns out to be too light, he could excel as a long reliever.
- Jhoan Duran (2020 Age: 22): Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, Duran came over in the Eduardo Escobar trade in 2018 and in 2019, he posted a 3.76 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 136/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 innings at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. For him, it's all about velocity. He sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and consistently touches higher, and he can morph that fastball into a low 90's splitter that is difficult to square up. He also throws an inconsistent curveball with slider velocity, one that can get some really good depth on it when it's going right but which can flatten out at times. His changeup is a work in progress but because of his splitter, he won't need to lean heavily on it. Most guys with this profile have trouble throwing strikes, but Duran has done a good job on that front and has kept his walks down to the point where they're not hurting him. Whether he starts or relieves long term likely depends on maintaining and slightly refining his command as well as getting a bit more consistent with that curveball. If he can do those two things, he'll be a mid-rotation starter, and if not, he'll be a power reliever.
Cole Sands (2020 Age: 22-23): Sands has always been talented, but he's also always been inconsistent and an up and down career at Florida State dropped him to the fifth round in 2018. After not pitching in pro ball that year due to minor biceps problems, he broke out in 2019 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 108/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids, High A Fort Myers, and AA Pensacola. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and he's gotten more consistent with his slurvy curveball and his changeup. Most importantly, he's also gotten much more consistent with his command, and what was really a guessing game in college turned into a strength in pro ball. Overall, he looks like a #4 or #5 starter for now, but if he continues on his current trajectory and sharpens that curveball a bit more, he could outplay that and become a #3.
- Bailey Ober (2020 Age: 24-25): Ober has dealt with injuries throughout his career, but in 2019, he finally broke out with a ridiculous 0.69 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 100/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings at High A Fort Myers, AA Pensacola, and some complex level rehab work. He stands a towering 6'9" and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a fairly ordinary set of a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. However, his size helps him get a ton of extension towards the plate and the ball gets on hitters really quick, so when that's coupled with very good command, it's almost like he's reaching out and just placing the ball in the catcher's glove on the corners. Except that he's not placing it, he's throwing 93 with rise. There's no question that he's talented enough to be somewhere between a #3 and a #5 starter, but the problem has been health. He missed a lot of time at the College of Charleston with Tommy John surgery, and his elbow has continued to bother him in pro ball even post-surgery. Make sure to watch his health going forward, but he could be a very good reliever even if he's not durable enough for the rotation.
- Blayne Enlow (2020 Age: 21): Enlow, an over slot third round pick out of a Baton Rouge-area high school in 2017, hasn't quite put it together yet but he has pitched quite well, and in 2019 he had a 3.82 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 95/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.2 innings at Class A Cedar Rapids and High A Fort Myers. He's still more or less the same pitcher he was in high school, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding an inconsistent curveball that flashes plus as well as an average changeup with workable command. The one big difference in pro ball is that he's added a slider, though he's still working on refining it. 2016 draftee Jordan Balazovic had a huge breakout in 2019, and the Twins are hoping that 2020 will be Enlow's year. At 6'3", we've envisioned more velocity for years now, and while he hasn't taken that overall step forward, he still turns just 21 in spring training and has plenty of time to figure it out.
- Chris Vallimont (2020 Age: 23): Vallimont went to the Marlins in the fifth round in 2018 out of Mercyhurst College in Pennsylvania, then was traded to the Twins in the Sergio Romo/Lewin Diaz deal. Between the two organizations in 2019, he posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 150/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.2 innings between Class A and High A, a really nice transition for a kid coming up from Division II. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondaries, but while his command was shaky in college, it took a step forward in pro ball and that was the difference. If Vallimont can maintain the strides he's made with that command, he'll be able to focus on sharpening his offspeed stuff and working towards becoming a #4 or #5 starter.
- Matt Canterino (2020 Age: 22): Canterino was a second round pick out of Rice in 2019, and he went on to have a very successful pro debut with a 1.44 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at Class A Cedar Rapids. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds two very good, distinct breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, as well as a changeup he's still figuring out. His delivery comes with a lot of moving parts, but he has great body control and throws consistent strikes, making him a pretty complete pitcher aside from the changeup. If he can stay healthy and develop that changeup, he has a very good chance to be a #3 starter.
- Keep an eye on: Charlie Barnes, Tyler Wells, Tyler Watson, Luis Rijo, Tanner Brubaker, Cody LawerysonLandon Leach

Relief Pitching
- Jorge Alcala (2020 Age: 24-25): Alcala was another one of those random arms the Astros found and developed out of nowhere, and they shipped their former $10,000 signing to the Twins in the Ryan Pressly deal in 2018. In 2019, he posted a 5.47 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 116/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.1 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Rochester, then earned a brief MLB call up and threw 1.2 shutout innings with a strikeout, a walk, and a hit allowed. Alcala is known for his arm, as he produces mid to upper 90's fastballs that rival those of Brusdar Graterol and Jhoan Duran, adding a full set of power secondary pitches. He can flash a plus breaking ball at times, though he also struggles to stay on top of his curve, making the slider the more consistent of the two. The command actually plays closer to average, but given the inconsistency of his secondary stuff, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he can drop a breaking ball and focus on really sharpening the other one. If the Twins decide to go that bullpen route, he could break camp with the team.
- Edwar Colina (2020 Age: 22-23): Colina is another power arm, one who also likely fits better in the bullpen than the rotation. In 2019, he posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 102/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings at High A Fort Myers, AA Pensacola, and AAA Rochester, blowing away minor league hitters with his power stuff. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, which has some hard arm side run, and adds a hard slider that misses bats as well. It breaks a bit early out of his hand and major league hitters will likely be able to pick it up a bit better than minor league hitters, but it should play up once he switches to the bullpen and starts sitting in the upper 90's with that fastball. His command, on the other hand, is a bit fringier than that of Graterol, Duran, and Alcala, and the other three are probably safer bets at this point.
- Tom Hackimer (2020 Age: 25-26): Hackimer was a fourth round pick out of St. John's in 2016, and aside from a tough 2018, he's dominated the minors so far. In 2019, he posted a 2.54 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 75/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings at High A Fort Myers and AA Pensacola. He's a righty sidearmer who doesn't throw overly hard, sitting around 90 with his fastball, but he gets good run on it and the low arm slot obviously makes it play up. He adds a slider and a changeup, neither of which stands out as plus, though it is a good changeup for a reliever with some nice diving action. Combined with some decent strike throwing ability, Hackimer has the chance to be a useful middle reliever in the near future.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Neff, Casey Legumina