Mets Acquire Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz

Mets Get
2B Robinson Cano (2019 Age: 36): 10 HR, .303/.374/.471, 0 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR
RHP Edwin Diaz (2019 Age: 25): 0-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP
$20 million (for Cano's contract)

Mariners Get
OF Jay Bruce (2019 Age: 32): 9 HR, .223/.310/.370, 2 SB, 89 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR
RHP Anthony Swarzak (2019 Age: 33): 0-2, 6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB, 26.1 IP
RHP Gerson Bautista (2019 Age: 23-24): 0-1, 12.46 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/5 K/BB, 4.1 IP
RHP Justin Dunn (2019 Age: 23): 8-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 156/52 K/BB, 135.1 IP at High A/AA
OF Jarred Kelenic (2019 Age: 19-20): 6 HR, .286/.371/.468, 15 SB, 124 wRC+ at complex/rookie

There is a lot to unpack in this trade, with core issues being not just player value but contract obligations. Robinson Cano has five years and $120 million left on his contract, and while he'll probably return significant value over the next two years or so, he won't be worth nearly the entire contract. Jay Bruce is owed $26 million over the next two seasons and Anthony Swarzak is owed $8.5 million for 2019, and neither player will likely cover the value of their deals either.

Mets Perspective
I did not like this trade for the Mets at first, but the more I look at it, the more I'm able to stomach it from their perspective. The Mariners will send $20 million along with Cano, making his contract a five year, $100 million commitment for the Mets while also taking $34.5 million more from them in the form of the Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak contracts, though of course they get their potential value to go along with the contracts. Assuming Bruce is worth something like $10-15 million over the next two seasons and Swarzak is worth something around $3 million next year, that excess $17-22 million of saved money over value can be factored into Cano's deal and assume that Cano will now cost them $78-83 million over five years, which is getting close to reasonable. Factor in all the money saved from and Cano's deal ends up adding $65.5 million over the next five years as well as the loss of Bruce's bat and Swarzak's arm. When broken down like that, we can consider Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn, and Jarred Kelenic to be going over for Diaz, which on its own seems like a light package. Basically, whatever you think of this deal basically boils down to what you think is more important: overpaying for Cano by taking on roughly $80 million in money over value, or underpaying for Diaz by giving up only Bautista, Dunn, and Kelenic. Personally, I don't see this as the greatest deal for the Mets, but it's not as bad as I thought it was originally.

Money aside, Robinson Cano will be a big help for the Mets by providing an above average bat and decent enough defense at second base, at least in the short term. His .303/.374/.471 slash line last season was very good when given the SAFECO Field context, and he can give Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto some badly needed support in the lineup just as Peter Alonso comes up to join in. Back in 2016, he hit 39 home runs while slashing .298/.350/.533, and his decline has not been so steep as to think he can't hit like that for stretches in 2019 and 2020. Ultimately, I think he ends up somewhere around his 2017 numbers (23 HR, .280/.338/.453) for the first couple years in New York, which certainly doesn't justify the contract but that's what Edwin Diaz is for. There is also a very good chance that Cano reaches 3000 hits with the Mets, as he needs just 530 over five years. For his career, the Dominican has 311 home runs, a .304/.355/.493 slash line, and 56.3 fWAR over 2078 games since 2005. For all the talk about Cano, Edwin Diaz is actually the prized get. You can argue that he is the best reliever in the game, having put up a 1.96 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a ridiculous 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings in 2018. He had the same wicked stuff in 2017, but in 2018, the difference was that he could actually command it. When you have a closer who can't be hit and also throws strikes, that's bad news for opposing teams. He's also not a free agent until after the 2022 season, leaving him in Mets pinstripes for up to four years. For his career, the Puerto Rican has a 2.64 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 301/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 188 appearances since 2016.

Mariners Perspective
After dealing James Paxton earlier in the offseason, it looks like the Mariners are getting serious about adding to a farm system that I would argue was the worst in baseball coming into the offseason. Of course, that required them throwing in the towel for short term contention by letting go of two of their biggest stars in Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. They also shed roughly $65.5 million in payroll obligations while getting some very good prospects in return, so while I was on the fence from the Mets' perspective, I like it from the Mariners' side. In terms of the 2019 season, the biggest addition is Jay Bruce for now. Bruce hit 36 home runs and slashed .254/.324/.508 in 2017, but he slumped to .223/.310/.370 with nine home runs in 2018. The bat probably picks back up in 2019, and he'll see time in left field and at DH. The platoon situation will be interesting, as Bruce, left fielder Ben Gamel, and DH Dan Vogelbach are all left handed hitters, with first baseman Ryon Healy being the only right handed hitter in this shuffle. However, Healy is also arguably the best hitter in the group, so it will be hard to justify benching him against right handed pitching in order to get all the lefties into the lineup. My guess is Bruce sees most of his time at DH while Gamel stays in left, with Healy playing most games against right handers but being spelled occasionally by Dan Vogelbach, who loses the most playing time in this scenario. Bruce is under contract for $13 million in both 2019 and 2020, but it's well shy of Cano's annual $24 million obligation. For his career, the Texan has 286 home runs, a .247/.318/.466 slash line, and 20.1 fWAR over 1510 games since 2008. Anthony Swarzak, meanwhile joins the bullpen. He was really good in 2017 (2.33 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 91/22 K/BB in 77.1 IP) but cratered in 2018 (6.15 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 31/14 K/BB in 26.1 IP) as he struggled with nagging injuries all season. If Swarzak can stay healthy, he can be a useful 7th or 8th inning reliever, but he comes with an $8.5 million contract for 2019 that the Mariners will be on the hook for regardless of his health. For his career, the South Florida native has a 4.30 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 433/174 strikeout to walk ratio over 316 games (32 starts) since 2009. Gerson Bautista will also join the bullpen, fresh off making his MLB debut in 2018. He spent the majority of the season at AA Binghamton and AAA Las Vegas, posting an ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.71 WHIP to go along with a very nice 69/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings. He can blow the ball by hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a pretty good slider, but he leaves it over the plate and gets hit often. Just 23, he has time to learn the strike zone, but he's probably just a middle reliever unless something drastic changes. The real upside arm that the Mariners will be excited about is Justin Dunn, a Long Island native who is getting traded away from his hometown team. Dunn bounced back from a rough 2017 at High A Port St. Lucie (5.00 ERA, 75/48 K/BB in 95.1 IP) to have a very solid 2018, starting off by posting a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings back at St. Lucie. He wasn't quite as effective at AA Binghamton, where he had a 4.22 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, but he held his own and could be ready for the majors sometime in late 2019. The 23 year old throws hard and is continuing to work on his secondaries and command, and he's athletic enough to make it all work as a starting pitcher. Dunn probably won't be a top of the rotation arm in Seattle, but he has a good shot at becoming a mid-rotation starter in the near future. Lastly, Jarred Kelenic might end up being the prized get for the Mariners. The teenage outfielder was the sixth overall pick in the 2018 draft out of high school in Wisconsin, and the kid already known for his advanced bat decided to slash .413/.451/.609 with a home run, four stolen bases, and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games in complex ball. Promoted to Kingsport in the rookie level Appalachian League, he slashed .253/.350/.431 with five home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 39/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. He doesn't turn 20 until July but he already shows an advanced feel for both the barrel and the strike zone, good speed, and some power. He obviously has a lot to prove, starting with handling A ball pitching in the spring, but he has legitimate leadoff upside down the road in Seattle.

Red Sox Add Addison Reed to Bullpen

Red Sox Get: Addison Reed (1-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 19 SV, 48/6 K/BB, Age 28)
Mets Get: Jamie Callahan (5-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 SV, 56/13 K/BB at AA and AAA, Age 22)
Stephen Nogosek (4-4, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 19 SV, 63/21 K/BB at Class A and High Class A, Age 22)
Gerson Bautista (3-2, 5.16 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 4 SV, 53/28 K/BB at High Class A, Age 22)

The Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays are all going for it, and the AL East is going to be very fun for the rest of the season. The Yanks have already acquired Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, and Jaime Garcia, while the Rays have added Lucas Duda, Adeiny Hechavarria, Sergio Romo, and Dan Jennings. So far, the Red Sox have only acquired infielder Eduardo Nunez, but they added star reliever Addison Reed this morning. Craig Kimbrel has been great in the ninth inning (1.24 ERA, 0.60 WHIP), but they've had trouble bridging the gap from starters to Kimbrel, with Matt Barnes (3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP), Fernando Abad (3.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and Heath Hembree (3.54 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) being more good than great and Tyler Thornburg out for the season. Addison Reed will take over as set-up man, carrying a 2.57 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP through 48 appearances, posting an excellent 48/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 49 innings. Those six walks account for just 3% of the hitters he has faced, and one of them was intentional anyways to Nationals star Daniel Murphy. This allows every member of the Boston bullpen to shift down a leverage level, putting them into situations they fit better in. Reed is a free agent after the season, so Boston is going for it this year. For his career, the San Diego State alum is 17-20 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 397/95 strikeout to walk ratio in 381 appearances.

The Mets traded two minor league pitchers for Reed in 2015, and all they got was two years of an excellent reliever and three more 22 year old right handed relievers. Neither of those original two guys (Matt Koch, Miller Diaz) is expected to make a big impact at the major league level, so it's safe to say this trade was a steal for the Mets. Now that they acquired A.J. Ramos for this year and next, Reed is fairly expendable, and they got quantity over quality for him. Instead of going for one high upside starter, they got three relievers, one of which we can expect to work out. In the likely scenario, the Mets essentially got full control of one useful reliever for two months of a great one. The most advanced player in this package is Jamie Callahan, who is already in AAA. The 6'2" righty started the season with AA Portland, but the Eastern League proved to be no match for him, as he posted a 1.38 ERA and a 0.62 WHIP over ten appearances, striking out 20 and walking none in 13 innings. Bumped to AAA Pawtucket, he hasn't been quite so overpowering, posting a 4.03 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 22 appearances and striking out 36 to 13 walks in 29 innings. His combination of a mid 90's fastball and a hard cutter have helped him succeed in relief, and he has the makings of being a solid 7th inning guy in the near future. At 22, he has time to adjust to AAA. Stephen Nogosek was just drafted in the sixth round out of Oregon last year, and the Sox started him off at Class A Greenville. There, he posted a 2.55 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 45 and walking 11 in 35.1 innings. Promoted to High Class A Salem, he's been decent, posting a 4.08 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 13 appearances, striking out 18 and walking 10 in 17.2 innings. Like Callahan, he's a fastball/cutter guy, but he can change the speed and shape of both pitches and that should be a useful tool as he moves up the ladder. Gerson Bautista has spent the entire season at High Class A Salem, struggling to a 5.16 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP, striking out 53 but walking 28 in 45.1 innings. He has the highest ceiling out of the three, as his fastball is regularly up to 97 and has touched 100, and his slider has the makings of a plus pitch. However, he struggles with command, and that causes him to be hit hard occasionally.