2019 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

First five rounds: Greg Jones (1-22), J.J. Goss (CBA-36), Seth Johnson (CBA-40), John Doxakis (2-61), Shane Sasaki (3-99), Graeme Stinson (4-128), Ben Brecht (5-158)
Also notable: Nathan Wiles (8-248), Cam Shepherd (20-608)

The Rays had four of the first 61 picks and used them to their advantage, hauling in a pitching-heavy class that saw them take six arms in a span of seven picks between their first competitive balance pick and the sixth round. After getting a potential leadoff man in Greg Jones, they grabbed a couple of high-upside arms in J.J. Goss and Seth Johnson before pivoting back to mostly safety arms like John Doxakis, Ben Brecht, Colby White, and Nathan Wiles. It's a really talented class and I think the Rays will get a lot of impact out of it with a potential leadoff man, two potential impact starters, and a lot of guys who could fill out the back of the rotation.

1-22: SS Greg Jones (UNC Wilmington, my rank: 38)
More of a third rounder early in the season, Jones pushed himself up boards with a strong sophomore season and looked like a second rounder for much of the spring, then made a mad rush at the end and landed here at the 22nd pick. After hitting a respectable .278/.412/.370 as a freshman in 2018, the Raleigh-area native got better and better throughout his draft-eligible sophomore season and finished with a .341/.491/.543 slash line, five home runs, 42 stolen bases, and a 44/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Though he's a sophomore, Jones turned 21 back in March, making him the age of a typical junior, but he also hit like much more than the typical junior so it all evens out. He's exceptionally fast, as evidenced by those 42 stolen bases this year as well as 20 in 37 Cape Cod League games (where he slashed a respectable .259/.374/.353). He's also a very patient hitter, as evidenced by his 18.9% walk rate this year (as well as 15% on the Cape), and that patience becomes even more valuable because more walks gives him more chances to deploy his speed on the bases. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, though he's a skinny 6'2" and could eventually grow into enough to keep pitchers honest, but his real calling card will be his ability to spray line drives from gap to gap and let his wheels do the rest. He has the potential to turn into a true leadoff hitter with high on-base percentages and game-changing speed. Defensively, he's just decent at shortstop and some evaluators believe he would be better off moving to center field, where his speed could make him very valuable. Jones signed at slot for $3.03 million and is 4-8 with a double and a stolen base over his first two games at short season Hudson Valley.

CBA-36: RHP J.J. Goss (Cypress Ranch HS [TX], my rank: 24)
I really like this pick, as J.J. Goss has the chance to be a true impact starter. The 6'3" righty from the Houston suburbs checks all the boxes as a high school pitcher, showing a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. He has room to fill out that 6'3" frame and add velocity, and his fluid delivery and whippy arm bode well for both adding velocity and continuing to improve his command. Even though nothing stands out as a true plus for him, he's very well rounded for a high school pitcher and could be a #2 starter. The Rays do extremely well with these kinds of pitchers, so I'd expect Goss to rise up prospect rankings throughout his time in the Tampa system. They managed to sign him at slot for just $2.05 million, which surprised me given his Texas A&M commitment and that pick #36 is a little lower than some projected him to go.

CBA-40: RHP Seth Johnson (Campbell, my rank: 30)
Johnson may be a college pitcher, but his profile is more similar to most high school pitchers given his risk, upside, lack of track record, and even age to a point. Johnson is a 6'1" righty who began his college career as an unheralded shortstop Louisburg College in Northern North Carolina, but some impressive bullpen sessions and a grand total of six innings on the mound led to Campbell, a Division I school off I-95 in Buies Creek, taking a chance on him as a pitcher. His statistics showed mixed results as he posted a 4.61 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an 81/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66.1 innings against mediocre competition, but if you watched him pitch, you would know why he went from a nobody to a competitive balance draft pick. The Charlotte-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, none of which are consistent but all of which can look very good at their best. While nobody would mistake him for Greg Maddux, Johnson already throws his fair share of strikes, and his smooth, low-effort delivery bode well for improving that command. To top it all off, Johnson is very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, so he's not as old as most college projects, which typically fall farther in the draft. Johnson hasn't gotten results yet, but his ability to turn himself into a real pitcher that flashes premium stuff with athleticism and some command virtually overnight has the Rays betting that he'll continue on this rapid upward trajectory in pro ball. He's far from a sure thing, though, and while his ceiling puts him as a #2 or #3 starter, a lot can go wrong along the way. Johnson signed for $1.72 million, $140,000 below slot.

2-61: RHP John Doxakis (Texas A&M, my rank: 47)
The Rays went and grabbed another college pitcher in the second round, but Doxakis is very different from Johnson. He had a fantastic season statistically, posting a 2.06 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 115/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings against a tough schedule, including a 2.23 ERA and a 62/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings in SEC play, where he faced some of college baseball's best lineups. The Houston native is 6'4" but actually sits around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on his above average slider, good command, and deceptive delivery to keep hitters off balance. With that average stuff, it's hard to project him as anything more than a back-end starter in pro ball, but his feel for pitching as well as his projectability with a skinny 6'4" frame give the Rays hope that he can add some velocity and get past that. Doxakis also has a bit of a funky delivery that might push other pitchers with similar skill sets to the bullpen, but he has the feel for pitching and the makeup to avoid that, at least in most potential outcomes. He signed for $1.13 million, right at slot.

3-99: OF Shane Sasaki (Iolani HS [HI], unranked)
Sasaki is a raw high school outfielder from Honolulu, one with a good all around game but also plenty of risk. Sasaki is a skinny six footer but generates some power with a big swing from the right side, as the torque and loft he generates could give him some pull side home runs. However, he probably won't ever hit more than 15-20 home runs per season in a best case scenario, so contact will also have to be a part of his game. It's questionable right now, and the length of his swing doesn't help ease those questions. Defensively, he uses his speed to be an above average center fielder, so all the pressure won't be on his bat. Obviously, the Rays believe they can make the power play up while maintaining his contact ability, and they're hoping to have gotten a solid every day player with this pick. Slot value is $587,400, but he has not signed yet.

4-128: LHP Graeme Stinson (Duke, my rank: 74)
Very few players saw their draft stock nosedive quite like Stinson's did in 2019. After posting a 1.89 ERA and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2018, he struck out twelve over five shutout innings in his one Cape Cod League start and positioned himself as a potential top ten pick if he could prove he could hang as a starter. Long story short, he didn't. The Atlanta native lasted just five starts before a hamstring injury ended his season with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. Stinson is a 6'5" lefty who can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball when healthy while adding one of the best sliders in the draft class, one that could probably miss major league bats today. The Rays may give him another shot as a starter, but he'll have to get a few things done to stay there. He'll have to continue to develop his changeup and he'll have to prove his durability. Many scouts are worried that the hamstring injury was not an isolated incident, as he checks in at 250 pounds and doesn't have the strongest frame. Even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could prove lethal if he's healthy, and I think gambling on the upside was a great move by the Rays here. He signed for $440,400, which was actually $2,500 below slot.

5-158: LHP Ben Brecht (UC Santa Barbara, my rank: 123)
Despite being a tall college left handed pitcher like Stinson, Brecht actually shares very little with the man drafted a round before him. The 6'7" lefty from the Chicago suburbs had a fairly unremarkable season for UC Santa Barbara, posting a 4.10 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 101/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings. Despite his height, he's more about command and control as his fastball sits just a hair over 90 and his offspeeds do more to keep hitters off balance than to really miss bats. However, he uses his height to get good angle on his pitches, and when you combine that with his feel for pitching and command, he can really control the strike zone like a pro. The Rays are banking on that pitchability aspect and will hope that his stuff and velocity can take the small step forward they need to get him into the back end of a major league rotation. He signed for $297,500, which comes in $32,600 below slot.

8-248: RHP Nathan Wiles (Oklahoma, unranked)
In the eighth round, the Rays grabbed a generic right handed college pitcher out of Oklahoma in Nathan Wiles. This year, he posted a 4.40 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an 83/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for the Sooners, though nine earned runs in his last start inflated his ERA by almost a run. The Kansas City-area native sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent slider and a changeup, with his command sticking out more than anything else. He's durable at 6'4" and with his strong track record of throwing strikes, the Rays will hope to sharpen his stuff a little bit and get him into the back end of the rotation, though he has a bit more work to do than Brecht. He signed for $162,900, which was $2,500 below slot.

20-608: SS Cam Shepherd (Georgia, unranked)
I'm not sure if Shepherd is going to sign here after what was a disappointing junior season for Georgia. He came to Athens as a highly regarded recruit who ranked #118 on my 2016 draft list then slashed .307/.354/.452 as a true freshman, but his line dropped to .244/.357/.385 as a sophomore then this year he hit just .231/.333/.386 with eight home runs and a 51/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. That line was dragged down by an awful .185/.244/.315 line through SEC play, further putting into question whether the Atlanta native can hit higher level pitching. It's his hit tool that stands out for him offensively, and he draws plenty of walks to boost his on-base percentage, but with below average power, Shepherd has a lot to prove at the plate. Fortunately, he's a good defender and may be able to stick at shortstop, otherwise he'll make a very good second baseman.

2019 Draft Preview: High School RHP's

Every year, there is typically some high school right hander who separates himself from the pack and creates buzz as to whether he can be the first high school right hander ever taken first overall. In 2018, it was Carter Stewart, before that it was Hunter Greene, and before that it was Riley Pint. Stewart is headed to Japan, Greene is out with Tommy John surgery, and Pint has been largely ineffective, and this year, there isn't anyone threatening to even land in the top five to ten picks. In fact, Matthew Allan is the only one with a good chance of landing in the top half of the first round at all, but once you get into the back part of the first round, names start popping up and there are plenty of kids with interesting upside. It's harder to separate players into tiers when there are so many, but here is my best shot at it.

Tier I: Matthew Allan, Brennan Malone, Quinn Priester

There were three in the top tier at the start of the spring, and there are three now, though Quinn Priester was swapped in for Daniel Espino. Matthew Allan, a high schooler in Orlando, is likely the best arm in this group, though he still isn't a premium prospect. Allan is a 6'3" right hander with three great pitches, tossing his fastball in the mid 90's, adding one of the better curveballs in the class, and wrapping it up with an advanced changeup for a high school pitcher. His command has also taken a step forward this spring, making him extremely well rounded for a high schooler, and he should be signable away from a commitment to Florida. Allan looks like a future #2 starter at best but more likely settles in as a mid-rotation guy, and he looks to go somewhere near the middle of the first round, likely earlier rather than later. Brennan Malone, a Charlotte native attending the IMG Academy in Florida, also took a step forward as a senior and got much more consistent with his stuff, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a solid slider, a curve that flashes plus, and a usable changeup. He's athletic and stands 6'3", and while he still has to get more consistent with some of his secondary stuff and his command, he's trending in the right direction and features arguably more upside than Allan. He'll go in the back half of the first round. Quinn Priester, like Allan and Malone, took a step forward this spring, though he has improved his draft stock the most out of the three. The 6'3" righty out of the Chicago area added velocity to his fastball and now sits in the low to mid 90's, also improving his curveball to the point where it now looks like a plus pitch and showcasing great feel for pitching, especially for a cold-weather arm. He apparently has not used a pitching coach and instead taught himself to pitch by watching Major League pitchers on YouTube, casting further light on his makeup and feel for pitching. He has solid command but needs to add a changeup, something which should be no issue, and his slow delivery features some jerk but is overall effective. He looks to be drafted in the same range as Malone.

Tier II: Daniel Espino, J.J. Goss, Jack Leiter, Josh Wolf

These four make up the kids who are likely to go towards the end of the first round/in the comp rounds, and like the guys in the first tier, all have had great springs. Daniel Espino is perhaps the most interesting high school arm in this part of the draft, as he started the spring locked in a dead-heat with Allan and Malone in competition for the best arm in the class. He hasn't really done anything to damper his own stock, but he has fallen because – wait for it – he throws too hard. Espino, a Panama native pitching at the Georgia Premier Academy in Statesboro, is a stocky 6'1" but throws consistently in the upper 90's, adding a wipeout slider and a good curveball to give himself easily the best stuff in the class – high school or college. Not only does his fastball reach 99 with consistency, it has wicked movement that makes it nearly impossible to square up. However, scouts are a little bit skeptical of Espino because of the velocity itself, as recent flamethrowing high schoolers like Riley Pint, Tyler Kolek, Hunter Greene, and Michael Kopech have gone on to struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness in pro ball. Espino himself has long arm action, but he is very athletic and alleviates much of the pressure on his arm due for that reason. If he stays healthy, he has true ace upside, and could even win some Cy Young Awards. However, that health piece is a huge "if" and he could realistically run into any range of outcomes, so he fits tentatively into the back half of the first round. Moving on, Houston-area native J.J. Goss has used a strong spring to push himself into first round consideration, showing a low 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a good changeup from a fluid delivery and loose, whippy arm action that bodes well for future projection. He commands everything decently well, though his lack of premium velocity pushes him into the back of the first round, where he looks to develop as a mid-rotation starter. Jack Leiter, son of former MLB pitcher Al Leiter, pitches in New Jersey and has ridden some of the best command in the high school class to where he is today. He's just 6'1" and throws in the low 90's, but he has a full array of secondary pitches headlined by a very good curveball, and his feel for pitching makes everything play up. That said, he's already 19, making him very old for a high school pitcher. Leiter has limited upside but looks like a safer bet than most high school pitchers to end up a major league starter, probably a #4, so he should go towards the back of the first round or in the comp rounds. Josh Wolf, like Goss, is a Houston high school pitcher, and he has elevated his status more than Espino, Goss, or Leiter this spring. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a very good curveball, and at a skinny 6'2", he comes with some projection. However, he's skinny enough that some scouts are worried about his ability to hold up under a professional workload, and he can lose his arm slot from time to time, affecting his command. He has strong makeup and should make the most out of his ability, looking like a comp round pick.

Tier III: Kendall Williams, Matthew Thompson, Bryce Osmond, Andrew Dalquist, Jimmy Lewis, Jack Kochanowicz

This is the second round group, at least based on talent and with signability aside. Kendall Williams, originally from the Memphis area, is teammates with Malone at the IMG Academy and comes in at an imposing, projectable 6'6". He currently throws in the low 90's but uses his height to his advantage, getting good downhill plane on the ball that makes it tough to elevate. Behind the fastball, he has a curve, slider, and changeup, all of which are fully usable, with the curveball being his out pitch. He still has work to do but with his projectable frame, he has a high ceiling as a starting pitcher. Meanwhile, Matthew Thompson is teammates with Goss at Cypress Ranch High School near Houston, though he hasn't had as great of a spring as his rotation mate. Thompson was viewed as a potential first rounder after a strong summer where he was into the mid 90's and flashed a strong curveball but his stuff and mechanics have been inconsistent this spring and he's fallen more into second round territory if he's signable away from Texas A&M. Thompson's 6'2" frame and whippy arm action give him plenty of projection, but he'll need more work than anticipated to reach his high ceiling. Bryce Osmond, a high schooler near Tulsa, also needs a lot of work, currently showing a low 90's fastball at his best but often fading during his starts. He also has a good slider and plenty of projection from his 6'3" frame, but he'll need to add strength to keep himself out of the bullpen. Andrew Dalquist, from Southern California, is a personal favorite of mine, already showing a full arsenal headlined by a low 90's fastball with good running action that will help him miss bats. His curveball has good shape and should become a plus pitch in time, his slider is already average, and his changeup shows fade. With a projectable 6'2" frame, he should add more velocity, and he has intriguing upside as well as a good chance to get there. Jimmy Lewis is teammates with star hitting prospect Brett Baty at Lake Travis High School in Austin, currently showing a low 90's fastball from a 6'6" frame. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is fairly advanced for his age, and with an easy delivery, he should add velocity while maintaining decent to good command. Sometimes the pitchers in this part of the draft can get a bit redundant, and he hasn't done much in particular to separate himself, but he does have the ingredients to be a successful major league starter. Lastly, Jack Kochanowicz comes from the Philadelphia area, also standing 6'6" and tossing a low 90's fastball with a good curveball, though his delivery isn't quite as smooth as Lewis's and will require some refinement. That makes Lewis the better bet to maintain good command/add velocity/stay healthy down the road, but if Kochanowicz takes well to mechanical changes, he has the same upside.

Others: Evan Fitterer, Brett Thomas, Trey Faltine, Riley Cornelio, Will Rigney, Michael Limoncelli