The strength of the A's system lies in the battery, where Jesus Luzardo looks like he could be a legitimate ace and A.J. Puk leads a group of high-upside starting pitchers all trying to return from injuries. Behind the plate, Sean Murphy is set to take over as the starting catcher as one of the better catching prospects in all of baseball, and there are quite a few coming up behind him as well. Elsewhere around the field, Robert Puason, Jorge Mateo, Nick Allen, Austin Beck, and Sheldon Neuse provide varying levels of upside, though it's overall a fairly unremarkable group that doesn't really rival what the A's have on the mound and behind the plate.
Affiliates: AAA Las Vegas Aviators, AA Midland RockHounds, High A Stockton Ports, Class A Beloit Snappers, short season Vermont Lake Monsters, complex level AZL and DSL Athletics
Catcher
- Sean Murphy (2020 Age: 25): With Josh Phegley out of the way, the stage is set for Sean Murphy to take over as the next starting catcher in Oakland. He broke out with the bat in 2018 and built on that success in 2019 despite missing time with a knee injury, slashing .293/.384/.580 with eleven home runs and a 36/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games between AAA Las Vegas and complex level rehab work, also slashing .245/.333/.566 with four home runs and a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 major league games. He's known for his defense, as he's already one of the better defensive catchers in the game and could challenge for Gold Glove awards in the future. That glove was going to get him to the majors regardless, but a couple of nice seasons with the bat are why he's going to take over as the every day starter. He's always had average power, but his feel for the strike zone and ability to make contact have helped it play up, and he could hit 10-15 home runs annually in the majors. He draws some walks but not enough to push his on-base percentages too too high, and in all, he projects as a steady #6 or #7 hitter, which you'll absolutely take if it's coming from a catcher with great defense. The one road block to this point has been health, as he has yet to crack 100 games in any season.
- Austin Allen (2020 Age: 26): Allen is a bat-first catcher who was acquired from the Padres for Jurickson Profar this offseason, and he'll fit well as Murphy's backup if he can indeed land that role. In 2019, he slashed .330/.379/.663 with 21 home runs and a 56/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games at the Padres' AAA affiliate, also hitting .215/.282/.277 with a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 major league games for San Diego. He has a lot of power in his 6'2" frame and has proven his ability to get to it in the upper minors, and he keeps his strikeouts reasonably low. Like Murphy, he doesn't walk a whole lot, though with his mediocre defense behind the plate, he doesn't hit quite enough in order to overcome that and land a starting role.
- Jonah Heim (2020 Age: 24-25): Heim has been around forever, as he was the Orioles' fourth round pick out of high school in the Buffalo area in 2013 and he's already been traded twice: once in 2016 to the Rays for Steve Pearce, then on to the A's in 2017 as the PTBNL for Joey Wendle. Always a glove-first guy, he finally began to figure it out with the bat in 2019, slashing .310/.385/.477 with nine home runs and a 45/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at AA Midland and AAA Las Vegas. Those numbers were probably a bit inflated by Vegas' hitter-friendly context, but he did hit .282/.370/.431 at more pitcher-friendly Midland and that on its own is well above his career norms. He's unlikely to hit for a ton of impact at the major league level, but the breakout in 2019 means he might hit just enough to land a backup spot. The A's will have the luxury of being creative with the bat-first Austin Allen and the glove-first Heim as they decide who will back up Sean Murphy in 2020 and beyond.
- Kyle McCann (2020 Age: 22): The A's drafted McCann in the fourth round out of Georgia Tech in 2019, but he's much more about upside than safety. After blasting 23 home runs and striking out 77 times as a junior, he demolished complex level pitching in his five game stint in the Arizona League (2 HR, .400/.520/1.000, 6/5 K/BB) before being a bit more humbled at short season Vermont (7 HR, .192/.289/.343, 81/25 K/BB in 55 games). As with his college numbers, the pro numbers tell the story. He has big power from the left side and has never had any trouble getting to it, even against advanced pitching. However, he also has big swing and miss issues, and those caught up to him in a hurry in the New York-Penn League. Additionally, he's a work in progress behind the plate, and he'll need further refinement back there in order to stick. Back on the plus side, he's a patient hitter who draws plenty of walks, so that should at the very least help pad his on-base percentages if his batting averages fall. There's a huge gap between his ceiling, which could see him smack 20-25 home runs annually as a starting catcher, and his floor, which could see him move to first base and then fail to live up to the added offensive pressure that comes with the position.
- Keep an eye on: Drew Millas
Corner Infield
- Sheldon Neuse (2020 Age: 25): Neuse was selected out of Oklahoma in the second round of the 2016 draft by the Nationals, then got shipped over to the A's as part of the Sean Doolittle deal. He hit really well after the trade in 2017, then faltered a bit at AAA in 2018, but a repeat of the level in 2019 helped him get back to where he needed to be. In 2019, he slashed .317/.389/.550 with 27 home runs and a 132/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at AAA Las Vegas, numbers certainly padded by the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but still a step in the right direction. Neuse also slashed .250/.295/.304 with a 19/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 major league games. He has some moderate power but it's really only shown up at his most hitter-friendly stops in High A Stockton in 2017 and AAA Las Vegas in 2019, but he has good feel for the barrel that should enable him to hit for plenty of extra base power even if he only projects for maybe 15 home runs per season in the majors. Defensively, he's pretty good over at third base, but with the left side of the infield completely locked up by Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman, his best bet to start will be second base. The bat is fairly fringy for a starter on a contending team, so his ultimate projection may be more of a utility man, but he's a competent enough hitter to take another step forward and start.
- Alfonso Rivas (2020 Age: 23): Rivas was a fourth round pick out of Arizona in 2018 due to his advanced bat and ability to control the strike zone, and he filled out that profile well in 2019. He slashed .283/.383/.408 with eight home runs and a 113/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Stockton, then slashed .406/.441/.625 with a home run and a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games at AAA Las Vegas after he completely bypassed AA. There's no question about Rivas' ability to hit advanced pitching, and he should continue to post solid on-base percentages in the majors, but he's limited to first base defensively and without a ton of power, it's hard to project him as much more than a left handed platoon bat. On the bright side, it's hard to project him as much less, either.
- Jordan Diaz (2020 Age: 19-20): Diaz hasn't had the most eye-popping numbers yet, but he's still young and he's gotten better and better each season. In 2019, he slashed .264/.307/.430 with nine home runs and a 46/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games at short season Vermont, as he started to lift the ball a bit more and tap into some of his power. He has a smooth, line drive-oriented swing from the right side, and he makes consistent hard contact while avoiding strikeouts. He's also improving defensively and should be able to stick at third base. As it stands today, he's not the most eye-catching prospect, and he'll need to continue to steadily improve in order to reach the majors. We'll have to play the wait and see game before projecting him for any specific role or level of output.
- Keep an eye on: Mikey White, Jonah Bride, Joshwan Wright
Middle Infield
- Jorge Mateo (2020 Age: 24-25): Mateo has now played eight professional seasons, yet he's still somehow just 24 years old and is finally ready for the major leagues. In 2019, he slashed .289/.330/.504 with 19 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 145/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AAA Las Vegas, and his 14 triples led all of minor league baseball for the third straight season. He's had pretty much the same profile throughout his pro career: top of the scale speed, wiry strength, athleticism, and inconsistent performance. He probably doesn't threaten for 20 home runs in he majors like he did at AAA this year, instead likely to settle around ten or so per year or perhaps a hair under, but he should be able to stretch lots of singles into doubles and lots of doubles into triples with his elite speed. Defensively, the A's are set at shortstop with Marcus Semien, so he'll likely battle Sheldon Neuse for the starting second base job in 2020 with the chance to hit for decent on-base percentages, lots of doubles and triples, and plenty of stolen bases, though his ceiling is higher significantly higher than that. The one thing that may hold him back in the majors is his approach, as he's very aggressive at the plate, rarely walking and swinging and missing a bit more than perhaps the A's would like.
- Nick Allen (2020 Age: 21): The A's drafted Allen in the third round out of a San Diego high school in 2017 for his glove, and while they knew the bat would take time to develop, his .239/.301/.302 line at Class A Beloit in 2018 was somewhat disappointing. He flipped the script in 2019, slashing .292/.363/.434 with three home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 52/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 games at High A Stockton, and the A's hope there's even more to unlock. He's just 5'9" and skinny at that, but he's begun to add strength to his small frame and that was the difference in 2019, has he already does a good job of avoiding strikeouts and putting the ball in play. He won't ever be mistaken for a power hitter, but with the loft in his swing and a bit more growth, he could profile for 5-10 home runs annually in the majors while posting high on-base percentages. That would go great with his glove, which is his best asset as he is an all around exceptional defender at shortstop. The A's have deployed him a bit at second base as he's fought Jeremy Eierman for the premium position, and if that ends up being his long term home, he could be a Brandon Phillips-esque Gold Glover there.
- Jeremy Eierman (2020 Age: 23): Eierman was a competitive balance pick out of Missouri State in 2018, though he turned out to be a bit more raw than expected. In 2019, he slashed .208/.270/.357 with 13 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 177/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at High A Stockton, his propensity to swing and miss keeping him from getting to his power as much as he would have liked. I don't think he'll ever hit consistently enough to be a full time starter, as his power is probably closer to average when you factor in that he'll probably have to ease up his approach in order to cut down his strikeouts. Still, his cannon arm and speed mean he should be able to handle shortstop and second base adequately and third base very well. And he does maintain a high ceiling, because if he does shorten up his swing a bit to start hitting for more contact, he might be able to take enough of a step forward that he could learn to tap the power even with a less aggressive approach.
- Logan Davidson (2020 Age: 22): Jeremy Eierman isn't off to the hottest start to his pro career, and with their end of the first first round selection in 2019, the A's picked up a fairly similar player in Logan Davidson, though Davidson has a bit better of a hit tool. Davidson, a Clemson product, then slashed .239/.345/.332 with four home runs and a 55/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games at short season Vermont in his pro debut. I prefer him as a prospect to Eierman, though while he hit really well at Clemson and in the ACC, he struggled in the Cape Cod League and I'm not convinced he'll be able to get to his power consistently in pro ball. He's also a good defender at shortstop, which should buy his bat some time, and he has about the same upside as Eierman with a bit better of a chance to get there.
- Robert Puason (2020 Age: 17): Puason has not played a professional game yet, but he's already one of the top prospects in the system after signing for $5.1 million out of the Dominican Republic at 16 years old. He's a 6'3" switch hitter with plenty of room to grow, and while we haven't seen him against pro competition, he has the chance to hit for both average and power with good feel for the strike zone, barrel control, and the explosiveness from both sides. He's also very good defensively and will stick at shortstop, giving him the opportunity to be an impact player on both sides of the ball. We'll have to wait and see before we start projecting him for anything specific, but his upside is probably the highest in the entire system.
- Keep an eye on: Marcos Brito, Sahid Valenzuela, Jalen Greer
Outfield
- Luis Barrera (2020 Age: 24): Barrera has worked his way up to a fourth outfielder projection, and in 2019 he slashed .321/.357/.513 with four home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 48/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games at AA Midland. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has proven adept at finding the barrel and hitting line drives, which will help him hit for high averages. If he walked more, he'd have a chance at being a starting center fielder, but he's an aggressive hitter and his offensive value will end up entirely tied to his batting average. He's also sound defensively and will be able to handle all three outfield spots well, and few players in this system have a ceiling and floor as close together as he does as a fourth outfielder in the near future.
- Buddy Reed (2020 Age: 25): Reed was a second round pick to the Padres out of Florida in 2016, then was shipped to the A's in the Jurickson Profar deal this offseason. In 2019, he slashed .228/.310/.388 with 14 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 126/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games in AA, a bit of a step back after he hit .271/.319/.435 with 51 stolen bases in 2018. Reed is extremely athletic, with exceptional speed that's enabled him to steal 74 bases over the past two seasons, and he also plays excellent defense in center field that makes him a true asset out there. At the plate, he's been extremely streaky, showing very good gap power with some over the fence pop at times, though swing and miss problems have kept him from hitting for much impact. His defense will get him to the majors, but at this point it's unlikely he hits enough to be a regular, so he'll probably end up as a streaky fourth/fifth outfielder, albeit one with exciting speed and defense.
- Skye Bolt (2020 Age: 26): I was 50-50 on including Skye Bolt in this writeup, but with a name like that and the chance to be a big league contributor, how could I not? Bolt had a strong first half, hitting .318/.379/.540 with nine home runs, but he slumped in the second half and finished at .269/.350/.459 with eleven home runs and a 94/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at AAA Las Vegas, numbers which are a bit more disappointing considering Vegas' extreme hitter-friendly context. He also played five major league games and picked up one hit in ten at bats. Bolt's a good all around player with some power and feel for the barrel, and while he can draw a few walks, he also strikes out a bit more than you'd like. He's a good defender who can handle all three outfield spots, giving him a good shot at becoming a fourth outfielder. Early in the season, it really looked like Bolt, a former fourth round pick out of UNC in 2015, was finally beginning to put it together, but the late season slump clouds that a bit again. He probably ends up a fringy outfielder who splits time between AAA and the majors, though he does have the talent to be a full time backup and stick in the majors.
- Chase Calabuig (2020 Age: 24): Calabuig was a four year starter at San Diego State, but a lack of upside at the plate caused him to fall to the 27th round in 2018, where the A's happily picked him up. He was on a positive trajectory in college and he's maintained that in pro ball, as his first full season has pushed him from 27th round roster filler to legitimate fourth outfielder prospect. In 2019, he slashed .283/.388/.365 with five home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 111/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Beloit and AA Midland (mostly the latter), and just like that he's knocking on the door to the majors. Calabuig's 5'11" frame and simple, line drive swing limit his power projection, but he has made that swing work in pro ball and he's found the barrel more often than not. He's also carried over his strong plate discipline from college, which is the main reason he was able to handle AA pitching within a year of facing Mountain West arms in college. A strong defender who can handle all three outfield spots, he has a similar outlook to Barrera, albeit with a few more walks but lower batting averages.
- Austin Beck (2020 Age: 21): The A's are waiting on an Austin Beck breakout, though to this point they're still waiting. In 2019, the 2017 sixth overall pick from high school in Lexington, North Carolina handled a fairly aggressive assignment to High A Stockton by slashing .251/.302/.411 with eight home runs and a 126/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games. He generates plus raw power from an explosive right handed swing, and he began to tap it more in 2019 than he did in 2018, but to this point his aggressive approach and mediocre strike zone judgement have kept him from really getting to it regularly. The good news is he's also strong defensively and would profile well in center or right field, taking some pressure off his bat, and he will play all of 2020 at 21 years old, giving him time to figure out the strike zone. His ceiling and his floor remain far apart, but it's still an impact ceiling.
- Lazaro Armenteros (2020 Age: 20-21): Armenteros, a similarly highly regarded amateur who signed for $3 million out of Cuba in 2016, has manned the outfield with Beck every step of the way and has run into similar issues. In 2019, he slashed .222/.336/.403 with 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 227/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at High A Stockton, the 227 strikeouts leading the minor leagues by 37. He's an explosive player with plenty of power in his right handed swing, but his swing and miss issues are even worse than Beck's. In this case, it's not a product of him being overly aggressive and chasing too many pitches, but more that he simply has too many holes in his swing and approach and struggles to make contact in general. The good news is he doesn't turn 21 until May and he could afford to repeat a level, but Armenteros has got to figure out how to make more contact, because he's a very dangerous hitter when he does but he doesn't quite have the power to be a Joey Gallo-type hitter. Defensively, he's probably limited to left field, and while he should be a solid defender there, the pressure on his bat is increased.
- Marcus Smith (2020 Age: 19): Smith comes with a lot of risk and less upside than some other high school picks, but his successful pro debut earned him a spot in this write-up. After being drafted in the third round out of a Kansas City high school in 2019, he went out and slashed .361/.466/.443 with a 29/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games in the complex level Arizona League. He's mostly a slap hitter for now, but he has big time speed that enables him to generate positive value as a hitter even without power, and he made better contact and controlled the strike zone better than expected for a raw high school talent. He should be able to grow into some gap power, which he could use to hit plenty of doubles and triples with his speed, though a ton of over the fence power is unlikely for the 5'11" lefty. He's a project but he might be more advanced than anticipated and he has a leadoff ceiling with a fourth outfielder projection being more likely.
- Keep an eye on: Greg Deichmann, Brayan Buelvas
Starting Pitching
- Jesus Luzardo (2020 Age: 22): Despite him having undergone Tommy John surgery, the Nationals drafted Jesus Luzardo in the third round of the 2016 draft out of Stoneman Douglas High School in South Florida, then shipped him to Oakland a year later in the Sean Doolittle trade. While I don't think the Nationals have any regrets as they hoist the 2019 World Series trophy that Doolittle helped bring, the A's are certainly happy with what they have in Luzardo. The 6' lefty was absolutely dominant in 2018 (2.88 ERA, 129/30 K/BB), then overcame shoulder problems in 2019 to post a 2.51 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 57/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 innings between complex level rehab work, High A Stockton, and AAA Las Vegas. He even reached the majors in September, posting a 1.50 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, and a 16/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 dominant innings. When he's healthy and on the mound, Luzardo is the complete package. He's added velocity since high school and now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a hard sweeping curveball and a very good changeup. Additionally, he can command everything, giving him true ace potential. The one ding in his profile is health, as he overcame the high school Tommy John surgery successfully and it looks like he's past his shoulder woes, but he's yet to prove he can hold up under a full major league workload. Still, he has a very good shot to make the A's rotation out of spring training and should contend for the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Award.
- A.J. Puk (2020 Age: 25): Puk went sixth overall out of Florida in 2016, but to this point his path to the majors has been up and down. After missing 2018 with Tommy John surgery, the A's were careful with the 6'7" lefty in 2019 and held him to a relief role, where he posted a 4.97 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 38/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at High A Stockton, AA Midland, and AAA Las Vegas before putting up a 3.18 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. When he's on, he's probably the toughest pitcher to hit in the system. He sits consistently in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his 6'7" frame makes it look even faster than that. He also adds a devastating slider that helps him rack up K's in bunches, and his changeup has come along to be a weapon in its own right. His command comes and goes, which has been the chief complaint in his profile since college, and it probably won't ever be much better than average. Still, so long as he can prove he can stay healthy, the fastball/slider combination is good enough to overcome those command issues, and he could be a #2 or a #3 starter so long as his command is on more often than it's not. If he can't figure out his command and has to move to the bullpen, he has true closer upside.
- Parker Dunshee (2020 Age: 25): Dunshee was a seventh round senior sign out of Wake Forest in 2017, but he's exceeded expectations every step of the way and there's no reason to think he can't continue to do so. After a dominant pro debut in 2017 (0.67 ERA, 48/8 K/BB) and first full season in 2018 (2.33 ERA, 163/31 K/BB), he started out at AA Midland in 2019 and dominated there to the tune of a 1.89 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 innings. Earning a promotion to AAA Las Vegas after six starts, he held a 5.38 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 90/37 strikeout to walk ratio across 92 innings, numbers which are actually pretty good when you consider his fly ball tendencies and the hitter-friendly nature of Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League as a whole. He only sits a tick above 90 with his fastball, but he's got a bit of a funky delivery that makes it look like the ball is getting on you a little quicker than that. It also helps his full array of secondaries, highlighted by a downer slider, play up, as does his above average command. He might not earn a rotation spot straight out of spring training, but with good numbers in AAA in 2020, he could be one of the first men called upon if somebody gets hurt.
- Brian Howard (2020 Age: 25): Howard has had a similar career path to Dunshee, drafted one round later as a TCU senior in 2017, and like Dunshee he dominated in his pro debut (1.15 ERA, 29/1 K/BB) and in his first full season (2.91 ERA, 140/37 K/BB). In 2019, he pitched well at AA Midland, posting a 3.25 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 118/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 innings, but he got shelled in four starts for AAA Las Vegas to the tune of a 13.81 ERA and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings. The one guy in the system who can look down on A.J. Puk, Howard stands a massive 6'9" and uses his long arms to make it look like he's releasing the ball right in front of you. That helps his fastball, which sits around 90, play up, and he can change grips to make the ball do pretty much whatever he wants with a full array of secondary pitches. Nothing he throws stands out as plus, but his feel for pitching combined with his height have made him effective most of the way up through the minors. If he can figure out how to get over the hump with AAA and major league lineups, he could fit in as a #4 or a #5 starter, similar to Dunshee.
- Grant Holmes (2020 Age: 24): Holmes was a Dodgers' first round pick out of a Conway, South Carolina high school in 2014, but it's been a long road up for the 6' righty. He was traded to the A's in the Rich Hill/Josh Reddick trade in 2016, then missed most of 2018 with shoulder problems. He returned healthy in 2019, posting a 3.23 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 81/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings, mostly at AA Midland with one start at AAA Las Vegas. He rolls a lot of ground balls with his low to mid 90's fastball and low 90's cutter, adding a swing and miss curveball and a changeup as well. Holmes has big league stuff, though his command has come and gone and at times he's been hit harder than he should. At this point, he'll probably never gain the consistency with that command to be a true impact starter, but he should still be a useful back-end guy who can toss a few gems now and then.
- Daulton Jefferies (2020 Age: 24-25): Jefferies is somewhat of a hometown guy, as he grew up in the Central Valley town of Atwater and attended Cal before being drafted in the competitive balance round in 2016. However, Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2017 and 2018 seasons, then he was extremely impressive on his short leash in 2019, posting a 3.42 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 93/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings at High A Stockton and AA Midland. He's added a tick of velocity since college, now sitting comfortably in the low 90's, and he adds a solid slider and a great changeup. His most important weapon is his plus command, as he controls the strike zone extremely well and rarely pitches behind in the count. He's struck out more than 12 batters for every walk so far in his pro career, and if he can stay healthy and put his shoulder and elbow issues behind him, I think he can be a very effective mid rotation starter for the A's with a higher ceiling than both Dunshee and Howard.
- James Kaprielian (2020 Age: 26): Jefferies may have missed most of two seasons with Tommy John surgery, but it's been an even rougher ride for Kaprielian, who was drafted in the first round of the 2015 draft out of UCLA by the Yankees. He missed most of his 2016 season with forearm problems, then sat out all of 2017 and 2018 with Tommy John surgery, giving him just 29.1 total pro innings from 2015-2018. Like Jefferies, he was on a short leash in 2019, but he performed well, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 75/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings at High A Stockton, AA Midland, and AAA Las Vegas. It took him some time to get his velocity back, but by the end of the season, he was back up consistently into the low 90's with his fastball, and at his best he shows the feel to spin two unique breaking balls and a changeup, all of which he commands very well. He's talented enough to be a mid rotation starter, though of course at this point set to turn 26 in March, all the lost time might mean he'll fit better in the back of the rotation. It's hard to say where he'll end up with all the lost time, so we'll really just have to wait and see how he fares on a longer leash in 2020.
- Tyler Baum (2020 Age: 22): The A's took Baum in the second round out of UNC in 2019, and he proceeded to post a 4.70 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at short season Vermont. Baum has big league stuff, but he's been inconsistent enough that he's not quite a sure thing. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a curveball and a slider that can both look like plus pitches at times, as well as a changeup, but he's often struggled to bring everything together at once. The A's will need to work with him on getting more consistent with those breaking balls, though fortunately, despite his funky delivery, he already shows average command. He's got some ceiling as a mid rotation starter, but he also comes with more risk than the typical second round college starter.
- Keep an eye on: Brady Feigl, Joe DeMers, Gus Varland, Colin Peluse
Relief Pitching
- Hogan Harris (2020 Age: 23): Harris was the A's' third round pick out of Louisiana-Lafayette in 2018, but elbow problems kept him off of pro mounds until this year. In 2019, he posted a 2.80 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 65/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.2 innings at short season Vermont and at High A Stockton, and his numbers didn't take a hit when he was promoted to the higher level. Harris has a low 90's fastball that can climb into the mid 90's at times, and he adds a good curveball to go along with a slider and a changeup. However, he's struggled to stay healthy, as he missed time in college with a variety of nagging injuries and has yet to throw more than 67.2 innings in any season, pro or college. That in turn has hampered his command, though he did do a decent job of throwing strikes in 2019. If he can improve his conditioning and stay on the mound consistently, he could improve that command and become a #3 or a #4 starter, but I'm including him on the reliever list because he'll need both of those things to happen in order to avoid a move to the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Seth Martinez, Jesus Zambrano, Zack Erwin
Showing posts with label Logan Davidson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Logan Davidson. Show all posts
Thursday, December 26, 2019
Saturday, June 8, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics
First five rounds: Logan Davidson (1-29), Tyler Baum (2-66), Marcus Smith (3-104), Kyle McCann (4-134), Jalen Greer (5-164)
Also notable: Drew Millas (7-224), Colin Peluse (9-284), Sahid Valenzuela (13-404)
The A's like to go their own way when it comes to the draft, and this year was no different. They used an interesting strategy because they not only went for upside in their three Day Two high school draftees, but also looked for upside with their first three college selections in the first, second, and fourth rounds. Overall, though, I'm not a huge fan of this draft class because I feel that they lack enough true impact upside to justify the level of risk in their draftees. My personal favorite selection is 13th rounder Sahid Valenzuela out of Cal State Fullerton, which you can read about at the bottom.
1-29: SS Logan Davidson (Clemson, my rank: 32)
A year after taking Missouri State shortstop Jeremy Eierman in the second round, the A's grabbed a similar college performer in Logan Davidson. The three year starter for Clemson has also been a three year performer, capping it by slashing .291/.412/.574 with 15 home runs and a 61/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games as a junior. However, despite 42 home runs and an on-base percentage over .400 in his 187 games at Clemson, he struggled in the elite Cape Cod League, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games between two summers. The discrepancy between his performance in the ACC and with wood bats is not too dissimilar to his former teammate and 2018 first rounder Seth Beer, who is enjoying a strong season in the Astros' system (12 HR, .319/.416/.554), but there is reason to doubt Davidson just a bit more than Beer. While Beer didn't strike out much at Clemson, Davidson struck out in 20.7% of his plate appearances as a junior and he doesn't have the smoothest swing. That said, he is a strong defender at shortstop, which will buy his bat time, and that ACC track record still gives him the upside of a power hitting shortstop with 20-25 home runs annually and decent on-base percentages. It's just also a risky profile for a first round college bat. Slot value is $2.42 million, which seems fair for the Charlotte native.
2-66: RHP Tyler Baum (North Carolina, my rank: 100)
For their next pick, the A's travelled about four hours up I-85 to grab Davidson's ACC opponent Tyler Baum. Entering super regional play, the Orlando native has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings, showing major league stuff throughout his career at UNC but never quite pulling it all together. He's a 6'2" righty with a some extra movement in his delivery, which produces low to mid 90's fastballs as well as three good offspeed pitches in a slider, a curve, and a changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but it has gotten better throughout his time in Chapel Hill, with his unspectacular college performance stemming from inconsistency in his secondary stuff. It's not often that he has all three offspeeds working at once, with the curve and slider tending to blend into each other at times, and the changeup can flash plus but usually plays closer to average. Combine that with the extra movement in his delivery and he could be ticketed to the bullpen, but because they're drafting him in the second round, the A's must believe he can make it work as a starter. In my opinion, a small step forward in his stuff could really go a long way, and he could be a mid-rotation starter if his skinny frame can hold up over a full season. Slot value is $1 million, which also seems fair here.
3-104: OF Marcus Smith (Pembroke Hill HS [MO], unranked)
Marcus Smith is one of those athletic outfielders who can't really do much other than run, but every once in a while they can develop into stars. Smith, out of Kansas City, is a left handed slap hitter who uses his quick bat to spray line drives around the field, then uses his speed to do the rest of the work. For now, he's really only a singles hitter and he will take significant time to develop into something more, but the A's likely see a chance that Smith can develop at least some gap power, which he could turn into doubles and triples with his wheels. He's a strong defender due to that speed, but this pick overall comes with a lot of risk with some solid if unspectacular upside. Slot value is $560,000 and I honestly have no idea what it will take to buy him out of his Michigan commitment.
4-134: C Kyle McCann (Georgia Tech, my rank: 108)
Even though they went to the college ranks here, the A's got some upside in this pick. Kyle McCann had a huge season for Georgia Tech, slashing .299/.468/.674 with 23 home runs and a 77/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games, and the numbers say it all for his offensive profile. The Atlanta-area native has big raw power that he got to regularly against tough ACC foes, and he draws a ton of walks (20.9% rate) to pad his on-base percentage. On the flip side, he strikes out even more (25.9%) and slashed just .219/.309/.344 with two home runs and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games on the Cape, leading to questions as to how well his offensive profile will translate to pro ball. Defensively, he remains a work in progress and is not a lock to remain a catcher, giving his profile another hit. With all of that said, McCann is a high upside, high risk college player who could figure it all out and hit 25 home runs a year in the majors while sticking behind the plate, or he could be forced to move off of catcher then fail to hit enough with the first base pressure on his bat. Still, in the fourth round, this is probably my favorite pick that the A's made in this draft just due to the upside. Slot value is $418,200, which also sounds about right.
5-164: SS Jalen Greer (St. Rita HS [IL], unranked)
In the fifth round, the A's grabbed a raw, toolsy high schooler out of Chicago's South Side. Greer has some pop from the right side, using the natural loft in his swing and 6'3" frame to make the ball jump off his bat. He has also improved his fringy hit tool to the point where scouts, especially in Oakland it seems, are more confident that he'll get to that power. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain at shortstop, but he's more likely a third baseman long term. He's young for the class and has been praised for his work ethic, and he's an interesting upside play here in the fifth round. Slot value is $312,400, and again I am not sure what kind of money it will take to buy him out of his Missouri commitment.
7-224: C Drew Millas (Missouri State, my rank: 128)
After he slashed .321/.416/.500 with seven home runs as a sophomore at Missouri State, Drew Millas looked like a potential Day One pick if he could build off that in his junior season. Instead, he hit .275/.370/.422 with five home runs and a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio this year and dropped to the seventh round. Millas is a glove-first catcher with a great arm and exceptional actions behind the plate, making him a lock to not only stay there but positively impact the game every day. The real questions come with his bat, because in addition to the mediocre junior season, he slashed just .261/.327/.293 in 28 games on the Cape, having shown some power stemming from the loft in his swing and decent plate discipline, but nothing that stands out. The A's will work to help the 6'2" St. Louis-area native generate more impact at the plate, in which case he could be a Jeff Mathis-type backup for a long time with the potential to hit for a bit more power. Slot value is $191,500.
9-284: RHP Colin Peluse (Wake Forest, unranked)
After solid freshman and sophomore seasons at Wake Forest, Colin Peluse had a rough go as a junior, posting a 5.74 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and a 71/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings for the Demon Deacons. He slipped to the ninth round, where the A's took the 6'3" righty with the crossfire delivery with hopes of straightening him out. He doesn't throw overly hard but his slider, changeup, and command give him a shot at being a #5 starter if he can get just a bit more consistent and sharpen the stuff just a little. He struck out ten in seven innings on the Cape last summer, but he's much more of a safe bet than an upside play. Slot value is $149,300.
13-404: SS Sahid Valenzuela (Cal State Fullerton, unranked)
Sahid Valenzuela looked very promising after slashing .314/.366/.377 as a true freshman at Cal State Fullerton in 2017, but he regressed to .272/.313/.358 as a sophomore and has had a roller coaster ride since then. He slashed .286/.342/.410 in 26 games on the Cape to set himself up as an interesting draft prospect, but he hurt his arm in March and played much of the season hurt, slashing .288/.403/.370 with one home run and a 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games for the Titans before finally going down with Tommy John surgery on May 2nd. He's very good defensively and should stick at shortstop, and his feel for the barrel and strike zone awareness give him a good chance to hit for average in pro ball once he recovers from surgery. The 5'9", 165 pound switch hitter is also no stranger to roller coaster rides, having grown up in a small Arizona border town near Yuma before moving to California to pursue his baseball dreams, and his strong work ethic will help him make the most out of his skill set. He does plan to sign here in the 13th round according to the Santa Cruz Sentinel, and I also read an interesting article on NCAA.com about him a couple years ago that you should check out:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-17/college-world-series-cal-state-fullertons-sahid-valenzuela-fulfills
Also notable: Drew Millas (7-224), Colin Peluse (9-284), Sahid Valenzuela (13-404)
The A's like to go their own way when it comes to the draft, and this year was no different. They used an interesting strategy because they not only went for upside in their three Day Two high school draftees, but also looked for upside with their first three college selections in the first, second, and fourth rounds. Overall, though, I'm not a huge fan of this draft class because I feel that they lack enough true impact upside to justify the level of risk in their draftees. My personal favorite selection is 13th rounder Sahid Valenzuela out of Cal State Fullerton, which you can read about at the bottom.
1-29: SS Logan Davidson (Clemson, my rank: 32)
A year after taking Missouri State shortstop Jeremy Eierman in the second round, the A's grabbed a similar college performer in Logan Davidson. The three year starter for Clemson has also been a three year performer, capping it by slashing .291/.412/.574 with 15 home runs and a 61/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games as a junior. However, despite 42 home runs and an on-base percentage over .400 in his 187 games at Clemson, he struggled in the elite Cape Cod League, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games between two summers. The discrepancy between his performance in the ACC and with wood bats is not too dissimilar to his former teammate and 2018 first rounder Seth Beer, who is enjoying a strong season in the Astros' system (12 HR, .319/.416/.554), but there is reason to doubt Davidson just a bit more than Beer. While Beer didn't strike out much at Clemson, Davidson struck out in 20.7% of his plate appearances as a junior and he doesn't have the smoothest swing. That said, he is a strong defender at shortstop, which will buy his bat time, and that ACC track record still gives him the upside of a power hitting shortstop with 20-25 home runs annually and decent on-base percentages. It's just also a risky profile for a first round college bat. Slot value is $2.42 million, which seems fair for the Charlotte native.
2-66: RHP Tyler Baum (North Carolina, my rank: 100)
For their next pick, the A's travelled about four hours up I-85 to grab Davidson's ACC opponent Tyler Baum. Entering super regional play, the Orlando native has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings, showing major league stuff throughout his career at UNC but never quite pulling it all together. He's a 6'2" righty with a some extra movement in his delivery, which produces low to mid 90's fastballs as well as three good offspeed pitches in a slider, a curve, and a changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but it has gotten better throughout his time in Chapel Hill, with his unspectacular college performance stemming from inconsistency in his secondary stuff. It's not often that he has all three offspeeds working at once, with the curve and slider tending to blend into each other at times, and the changeup can flash plus but usually plays closer to average. Combine that with the extra movement in his delivery and he could be ticketed to the bullpen, but because they're drafting him in the second round, the A's must believe he can make it work as a starter. In my opinion, a small step forward in his stuff could really go a long way, and he could be a mid-rotation starter if his skinny frame can hold up over a full season. Slot value is $1 million, which also seems fair here.
3-104: OF Marcus Smith (Pembroke Hill HS [MO], unranked)
Marcus Smith is one of those athletic outfielders who can't really do much other than run, but every once in a while they can develop into stars. Smith, out of Kansas City, is a left handed slap hitter who uses his quick bat to spray line drives around the field, then uses his speed to do the rest of the work. For now, he's really only a singles hitter and he will take significant time to develop into something more, but the A's likely see a chance that Smith can develop at least some gap power, which he could turn into doubles and triples with his wheels. He's a strong defender due to that speed, but this pick overall comes with a lot of risk with some solid if unspectacular upside. Slot value is $560,000 and I honestly have no idea what it will take to buy him out of his Michigan commitment.
4-134: C Kyle McCann (Georgia Tech, my rank: 108)
Even though they went to the college ranks here, the A's got some upside in this pick. Kyle McCann had a huge season for Georgia Tech, slashing .299/.468/.674 with 23 home runs and a 77/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games, and the numbers say it all for his offensive profile. The Atlanta-area native has big raw power that he got to regularly against tough ACC foes, and he draws a ton of walks (20.9% rate) to pad his on-base percentage. On the flip side, he strikes out even more (25.9%) and slashed just .219/.309/.344 with two home runs and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games on the Cape, leading to questions as to how well his offensive profile will translate to pro ball. Defensively, he remains a work in progress and is not a lock to remain a catcher, giving his profile another hit. With all of that said, McCann is a high upside, high risk college player who could figure it all out and hit 25 home runs a year in the majors while sticking behind the plate, or he could be forced to move off of catcher then fail to hit enough with the first base pressure on his bat. Still, in the fourth round, this is probably my favorite pick that the A's made in this draft just due to the upside. Slot value is $418,200, which also sounds about right.
5-164: SS Jalen Greer (St. Rita HS [IL], unranked)
In the fifth round, the A's grabbed a raw, toolsy high schooler out of Chicago's South Side. Greer has some pop from the right side, using the natural loft in his swing and 6'3" frame to make the ball jump off his bat. He has also improved his fringy hit tool to the point where scouts, especially in Oakland it seems, are more confident that he'll get to that power. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain at shortstop, but he's more likely a third baseman long term. He's young for the class and has been praised for his work ethic, and he's an interesting upside play here in the fifth round. Slot value is $312,400, and again I am not sure what kind of money it will take to buy him out of his Missouri commitment.
7-224: C Drew Millas (Missouri State, my rank: 128)
After he slashed .321/.416/.500 with seven home runs as a sophomore at Missouri State, Drew Millas looked like a potential Day One pick if he could build off that in his junior season. Instead, he hit .275/.370/.422 with five home runs and a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio this year and dropped to the seventh round. Millas is a glove-first catcher with a great arm and exceptional actions behind the plate, making him a lock to not only stay there but positively impact the game every day. The real questions come with his bat, because in addition to the mediocre junior season, he slashed just .261/.327/.293 in 28 games on the Cape, having shown some power stemming from the loft in his swing and decent plate discipline, but nothing that stands out. The A's will work to help the 6'2" St. Louis-area native generate more impact at the plate, in which case he could be a Jeff Mathis-type backup for a long time with the potential to hit for a bit more power. Slot value is $191,500.
9-284: RHP Colin Peluse (Wake Forest, unranked)
After solid freshman and sophomore seasons at Wake Forest, Colin Peluse had a rough go as a junior, posting a 5.74 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and a 71/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings for the Demon Deacons. He slipped to the ninth round, where the A's took the 6'3" righty with the crossfire delivery with hopes of straightening him out. He doesn't throw overly hard but his slider, changeup, and command give him a shot at being a #5 starter if he can get just a bit more consistent and sharpen the stuff just a little. He struck out ten in seven innings on the Cape last summer, but he's much more of a safe bet than an upside play. Slot value is $149,300.
13-404: SS Sahid Valenzuela (Cal State Fullerton, unranked)
Sahid Valenzuela looked very promising after slashing .314/.366/.377 as a true freshman at Cal State Fullerton in 2017, but he regressed to .272/.313/.358 as a sophomore and has had a roller coaster ride since then. He slashed .286/.342/.410 in 26 games on the Cape to set himself up as an interesting draft prospect, but he hurt his arm in March and played much of the season hurt, slashing .288/.403/.370 with one home run and a 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games for the Titans before finally going down with Tommy John surgery on May 2nd. He's very good defensively and should stick at shortstop, and his feel for the barrel and strike zone awareness give him a good chance to hit for average in pro ball once he recovers from surgery. The 5'9", 165 pound switch hitter is also no stranger to roller coaster rides, having grown up in a small Arizona border town near Yuma before moving to California to pursue his baseball dreams, and his strong work ethic will help him make the most out of his skill set. He does plan to sign here in the 13th round according to the Santa Cruz Sentinel, and I also read an interesting article on NCAA.com about him a couple years ago that you should check out:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-17/college-world-series-cal-state-fullertons-sahid-valenzuela-fulfills
Friday, May 17, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Shortstops
Shortstop is always one of the deepest positions at first glance, but many of these guys end up pushed off the position over to second or third base, and I tried to include those guys over with those positions. Still, the ability to play and stay at shortstop is a huge boon to a player's draft stock, as shortstops who can hit are hard to come by and when they are found, they become stars (see Francisco Lindor, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter). This year's crop is especially deep, especially at the college level (I pushed college shortstops Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake, and Brady McConnell to the second base list), though some high school bats are showing some real helium as of late.
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)