2022 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

The Tigers went exclusively the college route this year, loading up on bats early with five in their first six picks before transitioning to mostly pitching for the latter portion of day two and day three. Aside from that, there are no clear trends here, but I do really like that group of hitters they were able to put together early in the draft. Jace Jung has a very good chance to be the best hitter in the entire draft, while Peyton Graham has some of the most upside of any college player outside the first round.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-12: 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech. My rank: #9.
Slot value: $4.59 million. Signing bonus: $4.59 million.
The Tigers started off their 2022 draft class with a bang, picking up the man that has been perhaps college baseball's best all-around hitter the past couple of seasons. The younger brother of Rangers prospect and former top ten pick Josh Jung, Jace is a career .328/.468/.647 hitter at Texas Tech and finished 2022 with a .335/.481/.612 line, 14 home runs, and a 42/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Talked about throughout the top ten picks for much of the past two seasons, he got a little banged up while starting every single game for the Red Raiders and slumped a bit to close out the season, which may be why he was still available at twelve. The San Antonio native has a unique setup at the plate, holding his hands high behind his ear with the bat head cocked back towards the press box behind home plate, but personally I like it a lot because it really shortens the path his barrel needs to travel to reach the ball. He's already right there in the hitting position and wastes very little movement getting going. He stands out for an extremely patient approach, helping him walk in fully 20% of his plate appearances this spring as pitchers barraged him with offspeed stuff while he happily took first base time and time again. When you do give him something to hit, he won't miss it, with an easy plus hit tool that helps him make consistent hard contact to all fields. Jung has plenty of pop, too, producing huge exit velocities with great frequency, and that power also plays to all fields. Together, that's a hitter that could blast 25-30+ home runs a year with very high on-base percentages, fitting right into the upper third of the order. It's all about the bat here, though he should be able to stick in the dirt in some capacity. Drafted as a second baseman, he has enough range to be serviceable there, but he isn't the explosive athlete that can take away hits from the hole. He could also see some time at third base, where his range is a better fit, though he lacks the cannon arm of his older brother. Still, expect Jung to hit his way through the minors very quickly. He's already at High A West Michigan, where he's slashing .226/.314/.290 with seven strikeouts to four walks over eight games.

2-51: SS Peyton Graham, Oklahoma. My rank: #31.
Slot value: $1.51 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($289,400 above slot value).
The Tigers got another Big 12 bat in the second round, but Peyton Graham is a very, very different player than Jace Jung. He has been a priority follow for area scouts throughout his time at Oklahoma, then after a so-so start to the 2022 season, he really warmed up with the weather to finish at .335/.417/.640 with 20 home runs, 34 stolen bases, and a 69/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. Graham is an ultra projectable athlete that combines abundant physical gifts with on-field performance and rapidly improving feel for the game. Built like a string bean at 6'3", he already has plenty of lean strength packed into that lanky frame and should only continue to get stronger. He already shows plus power that plays to all fields, showing the ability to get his arms extended and really drive the ball with force all over the zone. He makes plenty of contact right now, and it's usually very hard contact, though he is an aggressive hitter that has a tendency to chase and he walked in just 8.6% of his plate appearances this spring. As Graham moves up through the minors, pitchers will be more and more keen to take advantage of his approach and that will need to be a major point of emphasis going forward. The North Texas native did look better in that regard as the season wore on, but he's still too much of a free swinger. Graham is plenty athletic enough to play shortstop, where he shows both the range and arm strength to be a weapon out there, though the game can speed up on him a little bit and his feel for the position is just a tick behind. Just like with hitting, the Tigers will want to get him plenty of reps out there and help him make the routine play more consistently. I don't think it will come to this, but if he does move off the dirt, I think his plus speed could make him an asset in center field. Graham has serious All Star upside if he can tighten up his plate discipline, and I did see a couple of Trea Turner comps thrown out there (though Graham has more power and less plate discipline at this stage of his career). Regardless, this will be a lot of fun to track, and he is slashing .240/.406/.320 with nine strikeouts to six walks through seven games at Low A Lakeland, already showing a more patient approach in a small sample.

4-117: RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #147.
Slot value: $517,900. Signing bonus: $517,900.
Troy Melton was an interesting day two candidate for the 2021 draft, but an up and down season that saw him finish with a 6.14 ERA, in addition to his youth relative to the class, led him to return to San Diego State for 2022. With a 2.07 ERA and a 67/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings, the results were much better this time around, and Melton still doesn't turn 22 until December so he's age appropriate for this draft. He sits in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that has gotten up to 97, getting good extension as well that brings his release height down and helps the ball jump on hitters a little extra. His slider is an average pitch and could use to add some power, while his changeup is a third pitch that's a bit behind the others. Last year, he got hit hard when he left balls over the plate, with long arm action that made it easy for hitters to pick pitches up out of his hand. A shorter arm stroke in 2022 helps him hide the ball better, and his ERA dropped more than four runs. The 6'4" righty is a great athlete that does not throw with too much effort, filling up the zone well with at least average command. Given his athleticism and ability to make adjustments, there is a lot for the Tigers to play with here as they work to sharpen up his offspeed stuff, so there is a chance he develops into a mid rotation starter. For now, he looks more like a #4 or #5 given his lack of a true out pitch. The Southern California native could move relatively quickly.

5-147: 3B Luke Gold, Boston College. My rank: #100.
Slot value: $386,900. Signing bonus: $386,900.
This is a nice pickup in the fifth round for the Tigers, who are getting a very good hitter even if he's not as explosive as a guy like Jace Jung or Peyton Graham. Luke Gold showed very well in the Cape Cod League last summer (.267/.363/.523), then put together a quietly solid 2022 campaign by slashing .308/.401/.557 with nine home runs and a 28/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in a very strong ACC. Every draft, I find a few guys that are best described as "just a pro hitter," and Gold fits that. He grinds out at bats and makes a ton of contact from the right side, showing very little swing and miss while consistently spraying hard line drives to all fields. All that contact keeps his walk rates down, but you don't have to worry about him chasing and helping pitchers out. There is some power from a simple, quick, right handed swing, and he tapped it with wood bats on the Cape where he homered six times in 27 games. In all, it's a very nice offensive profile that could produce around 15 home runs a year with high batting averages and steady, consistent performance. He will have to hit, because he's more ballplayer than athlete and projects as a fringy defender no matter where you put him. The Albany-area native played mostly second base at Boston College, where his fringy speed limited his range, and it looks like the Tigers drafted him as a third baseman to see if he has just enough arm strength to make it work. If Gold slows down at all with age, he could be pushed to first base in the long run, where he may not have enough power to play every day (especially with Spencer Torkelson around). You're never going to get guaranteed starters for slot value in the fifth round anyways, so I still really like the floor here and think Gold will contribute sooner rather than later. He's already been deployed at Low A Lakeland, where he has two hits in eleven at bats through four games with an even three to three strikeout to walk ratio.

6-177: SS Danny Serretti, North Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $293,900. Signing bonus: $293,900.
Danny Serretti, like Troy Melton, was a well-known name that had a chance to go on day two of the draft, in 2021, but he opted to head back to school and try his luck again. He did manage to put up significantly better numbers this spring, with a .365/.437/.567 slash line, ten home runs, and a 38/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games landing him in the sixth round. A switch hitter, he has been much more disciplined this spring and really cut down on his swing and miss, helping him do damage with a lot of hard contact. There is some sneaky power to the pull side in his 6'1" frame, and he does drive balls into the gaps for extra base hits regularly. It's not a flashy offensive profile, but one that can handle pro pitching and make enough impact to keep moving up. He's been the UNC shortstop for a few years now, with smooth actions in the dirt and perhaps just enough arm to stick there. The New Jersey native's athleticism helps him on both sides of the ball, as he moves really well in the box, on the basepaths, and at shortstop. It's a pretty coachable profile that has a very good shot to wind up a utility infielder down the line. He's off to a red hot start for Low A Lakeland, where he's slashing .455/.647/.818 with a home run and just one strikeout to six walks through four games.

7-207: OF Seth Stephenson, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $229,800. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($71,200 above slot value).
Seth Stephenson makes it two switch hitters in a row for the Tigers, and he went a little above slot to grab himself a nice $300,000 bonus in the seventh round. Stephenson spent two years at Temple JC in Texas before transferring to Tennessee, where he put up a great season and hit .339/.408/.508 with four home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 41/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. He stands out most for his speed, with plus-plus wheels that help him fly around the bases and the outfield. Listed at a skinny 5'9", there is very little power in the tank and he hit just four home runs this year despite playing at a hitter-friendly home park, but he does make a ton of line drive contact and lets his speed do the rest. He's a relatively aggressive hitter that wants to make things happen quickly, so he doesn't walk much and his strikeout rate is a bit elevated as well. He's played some infield in college but will likely stick with the outfield in pro ball, where his speed makes him an asset in all three positions. To reach his ceiling as a speedy fourth outfielder, the Austin-area native will need to manage the strike zone a bit better so that he can cut down on the swing and miss, giving his speed more opportunity to go to work.

10-297: RHP Trevin Michael, Oklahoma. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $153,000. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($103,000 below slot value).
If you want quick to the big leagues, it might not get much quicker than Trevin Michael, the oldest player in the entire draft at nearly 25 years old. After graduating from Oklahoma's Piedmont High School in 2016, he redshirted his freshman season, spent two years pitching for Northern Oklahoma JC, then two years at Lamar, then finally came to Oklahoma in 2022 as a sixth year senior. Serving as the Sooner closer, he was nothing short of dominant this spring with a 2.89 ERA and a 95/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.2 innings and really stepping up during the College World Series run. He sits in the mid 90's and regularly touches the upper 90's, with some hop that makes it jump on hitters. A rare four pitch college reliever, he adds three secondaries that will all be put to good use in pro ball. His short, hard slider has some sweep to it, while his more top to bottom curveball gives him more depth and his changeup fades nicely away from left handed hitters. An absolute bulldog on the mound, he attacks the strike zone relentlessly and that makes up for average command. The 6'2" righty did make a couple of starts for Oklahoma this spring and performed well in extended outings, but given his age, he'll likely be a pure reliever for the Tigers where they can rush him up to the big leagues as quickly as possible. Expect him in Detroit sometime in 2023, though for now he's starting off in the Florida Complex League and has struck out two of the four batters he's faced.

13-387: OF Dom Johnson, Kansas State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $180,000 ($55,000 against bonus pool).
Dom Johnson was on scouts' radars out of high school in 2020, but made it to campus at Oklahoma State and barely played in 2021. He transferred to Kansas State after the season and thrived in Manhattan, slashing .345/.419/.593 with twelve home runs and a 48/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Working with a line drive swing, he makes a lot of hard contact with a quick stroke from the right side and likes to turn on balls when pitchers come in. That's where his power comes from, because at 5'9" he doesn't quite have the thump to put the ball over the fence the other way on a consistent basis. He's also a plus runner that has a chance to play center field if he can get a little more refined out there, giving him a very solid fourth outfielder projection. To reach that, he'll also need to get more refined at the plate, where he has a tendency to chase good breaking balls. I saw him play a couple games in person at Texas Tech, where Cubs fifth rounder Brandon Birdsell struck him out three times in a row on the same pitch – a good slider down and away. The Tigers are buying the athleticism and trajectory here, because even if he has a ways to go in his development, he's miles ahead of where he was a year ago.

2022 MLB Draft: an early look at mid-majors (west)

2021 draftees: 76. Top schools: Dallas Baptist/San Diego State/Tulane (5).
2021 preseason writeup (published 1/22/2021)

Top draftees:
1-5, Orioles: OF Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State)
1-18, Cardinals: RHP Michael McGreevy (UC Santa Barbara)
2-67, Angels: LHP Ky Bush (Saint Mary's)
CBB-71, Padres: LHP Robert Gasser (Houston)
3-81, Mets: RHP Dominic Hamel (Dallas Baptist)
3-96, Braves: LHP Dylan Dodd (Southeast Missouri State)

Just like in the east, the western mid majors have a strong candidate to go first overall in Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, rivaling James Madison's Chase DeLauter on the other side of the country. However, at this point it's really Lee running the show in the west with no other prospects looking like clear-cut first rounders, with the next group of prospects looking to go more in the second to third round range with questions surrounding power output for the hitters and ability to stick in the rotation for the pitchers. Below, we'll look at the top ten for the 2022 draft.

1. SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: San Luis Obispo, CA.
2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
Brooks Lee, the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, was a very well-known prospect coming out of San Luis Obispo High School back in 2019 and had a chance to go in the the top two rounds had he been signable. Instead, he was the fourth best prospect to reach campus behind three SEC-bound stars in Vanderbilt's Jack Leiter, Florida's Hunter Barco, and LSU's Maurice Hampton. He barely got to play in 2020 when the COVID shutdown came down just as he was returning from hamstring surgery, but he set the league on fire with a huge sophomore season with a .342/.384/.626 line in 55 games. Seeing time with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League over the summer, he was exposed to some of the top amateur pitchers in the country and thrived to the tune of a .375/.405/.600 line with seven home runs in 32 games, leaving no doubt that the bat is for real. Lee employs an extremely aggressive approach at the plate, swinging at almost everything he considers hittable. For the vast majority of players, that kind of free swinging mentality would lead to high strikeout rates and ugly K/BB ratios (think Javier Baez), but it actually works extremely well in this case because his feel for the barrel is perhaps unparalleled in college baseball. It doesn't matter what he's up against, velocity, quality breaking stuff, in the zone, out of the zone, whatever, Lee is going to see it, hit it, and hit it hard. He's not just a slap hitter, either, with plus raw power that he taps in games, with wood bats, and against quality competition, coming from a sturdy 6'2" frame that should continue to add strength in pro ball. A switch hitter, he's been known for his choppy swing since high school, though despite its optics he's direct to the ball and can effectively catch pitches out in front to drive them to all fields. Lee plays shortstop for now and his instincts help him perform well at the position, but he's a fringy runner and his lack of range might push him to third base in the long run, where he'll still be a net-positive defensively. Headed into pro ball, he has a very complete profile that figures to hit 20-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, though he'll have to cut back just a little bit on his tendency to expand the zone because he won't always be able to get away with chasing  like he does against college pitching. For now, he's in play right at the start of the draft and should be a lock for the first round if he even comes close to matching his strong 2021 season.

2. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: B. Throw: R. 5'10", 185 lbs. Born 5/25/2001. Hometown: Elgin, TX.
2021: 4 HR, .337/.417/.534, 15 SB, 33/23 K/BB in 49 games.
Jace Grady did not reach campus at Dallas Baptist with nearly as much fanfare as Brooks Lee, but after hitting just .187/.295/.237 in the shortened 2020 season, he's been trending straight up. Grady was an integral piece of the Patriots' super regional team, hitting .337/.417/.534 with 15 stolen bases in 49 games, then he took it to another level by slashing .348/.383/.596 with six home runs in 22 games on the Cape. Previously regarded as a potential fourth outfielder who could spray line drives around the field, his power surge against elite competition over the summer added a whole new ceiling to the profile. He's a patient hitter that doesn't chase much, but he still rarely strikes out or walks because when he does get his pitch, he rarely misses it and makes consistent hard contact to all fields. "All fields" can at times be associated with a slap-heavy approach, but Grady is not afraid to turn on the ball and shows some solid pop to the pull side. The Austin-area native runs well enough to stick in center field, giving him a really nice all around profile. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power consistently throughout the 2022 season to feel comfortable popping him in the top fifty or so picks, but if he can continue to show enough juice to profile for perhaps 10-15 home runs a year to go along with his high on-base percentages, he could knock on the door of the first round. For now, he probably fits better in the second or early third, with the fact that he's relatively young for the class working in his favor.

3. SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 190 lbs. Born 3/23/2001. Hometown: Spanish Fork, UT.
2021: 9 HR, .333/.433/.556, 4 SB, 29/32 K/BB in 48 games.
Brigham Young has not had a player drafted in the top five rounds since 2013, when the Cubs took Jacob Hannemann in the third round, and 6th rounder Jackson Cluff (2019) marks the only Cougar to go in the top ten rounds since then. There is a good chance that changes in 2021 with Andrew Pintar and Cy Nielson looking to be two of the best prospects BYU has had in a long time, though Nielson has significant relief risk and Pintar is, for now, clearly the better prospect. Pintar hit .302/.381/.358 as a freshman then added power to his game in 2021 with a monster .333/.433/.556 line, ending the season especially hot with eleven multi-hit games over his final fourteen. He has some of the stronger plate discipline in the west and selects good pitches, leading to high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. He loves to get his arms extended and because of that has power to all fields, not just to the pull side, with impressive exit velocities to boot and a chance for above average power in pro ball. Together, that gives the Salt Lake City-area native the projection of 15-20 home runs a year with high on-base percentages at his peak, a very favorable offensive profile especially at shortstop. He'll likely stick there with strong feel for the position that makes up for his average physical tools, giving him an extremely well-rounded game. You won't find many plus tools in Pintar's arsenal, but he has a very strong chance to work his way up as a consistently solid regular who will help the team out in a lot of ways. For now, that's a second to third round projection, but teams love polished college hitters that can stick at shortstop and Pintar fits.

4. SS Jordan Sprinkle, UC Santa Barbara.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'10", 170 lbs. Born 3/6/2001. Hometown: Palm Springs, CA.
2021: 7 HR, .353/.402/.536, 26 SB, 39/14 K/BB in 58 games.
Jordan Sprinkle is a favorite among West Coast area scouts, coming off a huge sophomore season (.353/.402/.536) and following that up with a very respectable run with both the Collegiate National Team and in the Cape Cod League (combined .276/.348/.362 in 19 games). He makes a ton of contact from the right side, spraying line drives around the field and looking unfazed for the most part against elite pitching over the summer, though he did strike out in over 30% of his plate appearances after posting a 14.9% rate for UCSB. Sprinkle also shows some ambush power and runs into his fair share of home runs due to the high volume of hard hit balls he produces, though again, that power did not show up with wood bats over the summer as he ended with four extra base hits (no home runs) in those 19 games. At a skinny 5'10", he'll likely always be hit over power, and on the docket for 2022 will be drawing a few more walks and maintaining that 45 grade power projection. The Southern California native has a very favorable defensive outlook with plus speed that gives him great range at shortstop, with plenty of arm strength to help him not just stick there but thrive. The overall package reminds me a bit of Jose Torres, who went to the Reds in the third round last year out of NC State and had a very strong debut in the low minors (.333/.387/.590 in 28 games). The very strong glove will buy his bat plenty of time to adjust to pro pitching and if the power never comes along, his bat to ball skills will make him a valuable utility infielder at the least. I see him fitting in the third or fourth round for now with a chance to work his way up this spring.

5. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 12/3/2000. Hometown: Anaheim, CA.
2021: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 innings.
Troy Melton was draft-eligible last year, but because he was one of the youngest players in the class and didn't quite live up to expectations, he returned to San Diego State and will still be younger than many first-time eligible players this year including four of the next five players on this list. Relatively new to pitching, he looked strong in the COVID-shortened 2020 season (3.22 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 22.1 IP) and was tabbed as a breakout candidate heading into 2021. While he did make 15 starts and threw over 70 innings in the Aztec rotation, the results themselves were somewhat pedestrian and he was more hittable than expected. Heading into 2022, evaluators are hoping his youth, projection, and increased experience will help him turn the corner and finally have that breakout season. The 6'4" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, scraping the upper 90's at his best and playing up due to his lower release point and good extension. He adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches led by a sweepy slider in addition to more of a get-me-over curveball and changeup. He pounds the zone with strikes, but his lack of a putaway offspeed pitch left him vulnerable to hard contact when his pitches caught too much plate. In 2022, Melton will want to take a step forward with one or more of those offspeeds to keep hitters off his fastball and get away with more location misses, in which case he could really move up boards in a hurray. Scouts already love the athleticism and projection in his frame, and there is plenty of starter upside here if things break right. He ranked #163 on my 2021 list and hasn't seen his stock move much since, so right now it's a middle-of-day-two projection that will likely change significantly before draft day.

6. RHP Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 11/8/2000. Hometown: Vacaville, CA.
2021: 3-1, 1.57 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 42/12 K/BB in 34.1 innings.
In Devereaux Harrison, we already have an early submission for the all-name team. He's seen nothing but success in two seasons out of the Long Beach State bullpen, putting together a 1.50 ERA and a sharp 60/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 innings, often working two, three, or even four innings at a time. His live right arm earned him brief stints with both the Collegiate National Team and Wareham in the Cape Cod League, and now heading into the 2022 season he's one of the more interesting pitchers on the West Coast. Harrison sits in the low 90's with his fastball and regularly peaks into the mid 90's, and the pitch plays up significantly because he generates exceptional ride to the arm side. His secondaries, namely a slider and changeup, are more of a work in progress, with the slider varying considerably in its quality but flashing above average at its best and the changeup existing really to give hitters another look. The 6' righty isn't huge but he's cleaned up his delivery significantly since getting to Long Beach and is throwing more strikes, though his long arm action still causes some inconsistency in his release point. At this point, he probably projects more as a reliever due to the fact that he's mostly a two pitch guy for now that hasn't been stretched out and struggles with inconsistency at times, though he has a whole spring to show evaluators he can start. If the Northern California native can successfully transition to the rotation this spring and maintain his high octane stuff, he could jump quickly into the top two to three rounds, but college relievers have a very checkered track record in pro ball and it might be more of a middle-of-day-two projection if he can't shed that profile.

7. RHP Jacob Meador, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 5'11", 170 lbs. Born 10/26/2000. Hometown: Burleson, TX.
2021: 1-1, 5.68 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 19 innings.
Jacob Meador is just about as DFW as it gets, having grown up in Burleson in the far southwestern corner of the Metroplex, pitching two years at TCU in Fort Worth, and now transferring across the Mid Cities to Dallas Baptist. Meador has always possessed great stuff and he stood out for just that with the Horned Frogs but a combination of poor command and a deep pitching staff meant he never really got the chance to settle in with consistent innings. However, he spent the summer with Yarmouth-Dennis in the Cape Cod League and shined, pitching to a 3.62 ERA and, most importantly, a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 innings. Now he'll hope that he can continue to combine his high octane stuff with newly found command to fully turn the corner at DBU. Meador sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has touched the upper 90's, once reportedly getting as high as 99, while adding a slider and changeup that are both devastating when they're on. Unfortunately he rarely has everything working at once, and for much of his career his command has been well below average. The 5'11" righty moves very well on the mound and is trending hard in the right direction, and if the change of scenery is enough to help him put it all together, he has the talent to go in the top couple of rounds. His stock could move in any number of directions this spring depending on how his command and offspeed stuff looks, but there's an up arrow next to his name and a lot of area scouts are rooting for the guy they saw on the Cape to show up this spring. If he does, there is mid-rotation starter upside.

8. RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'4", 190 lbs. Born 10/1/2000. Hometown: Washington, UT.
2021: 6-6, 3.79 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 104/38 K/BB in 90.1 innings.
Drew Thorpe does not have the flashiest stuff on this list, but he's been as dependable as they come for Cal Poly and in two seasons has a very respectable 3.65 ERA and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings, beginning with seven innings of two run ball against reigning national champion Vanderbilt in his very first collegiate outing. Thorpe pitched for the Collegiate National Team this summer and was roughed up to the tune of eleven runs on nineteen hits in eight innings, but he righted the ship a bit in the Cape Cod League with just one earned run over ten innings, including nine strikeouts. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out at 95 over the summer but lacking big life on the pitch. He flips in a fringy, get-me-over curveball but really lives by his plus changeup, and he works through that three pitch arsenal very effectively in games. With a sturdy frame and an easy, repeatable delivery, he has the look of a workhorse starter that could give a major league team 180+ innings a year (that's a workhorse these days) while avoiding trips to the injured list or bouts of wildness. To reach that #4 starter ceiling, however, he'll have to improve that breaking ball to at least an average pitch so he can more effectively get to his changeup and put hitters away, and we saw with the CNT what happens when advanced hitters are able to sit on pitches. Given his gamer profile, it seems like a good bet he'll be able to figure something out with that breaking ball, and if he doesn't he probably profiles as a long reliever. It's the most complete starting pitcher profile on this list, though that doesn't necessarily mean "high floor" just because a consistent starting pitcher that tops out in AA/AAA provides the exact same amount of value as a guy who flames out throwing poorly-aimed 100 in Low A.

9. RHP William Kempner, Gonzaga.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 220 lbs. Born 6/1/2001. Hometown: San Jose, CA.
2021: 3-3, 3.10 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/29 K/BB in 40.2 innings.
It's November so naturally Spokane is in full basketball mode, but the Gonzaga baseball team has a pair of interesting pitching prospects in William Kempner and Gabriel Hughes. Kempner is probably just a little bit ahead of Hughes in terms of prospect status for now, coming off a strong summer in the Alaska Baseball League in which he averaged nearly six innings per start and posted a strong 2.87 ERA and a 44/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings. He stands out first and foremost for having one of the better fastballs in the class, a low to mid 90's offering that can touch 98 in relief and which comes in with tremendous running life to the arm side, somewhat similar to former Oklahoma pitcher and Red Sox seventh rounder Wyatt Olds last year. He also adds a solid slider that can flash above average at its best but which can sometimes lack bite, while his above average changeup plays really nicely from his wide, low three quarters arm slot. The 6' righty has a sturdy build and has shown that he can handle a starter's workload, but his below average control and unique operation likely push him to the bullpen long term where his stuff should tick up. That likely limits his draft ceiling a bit, but there are plenty of teams actively searching for data-rich pitchers who can provide a unique look they can play with, and Kempner certainly fits that profile. Depending how his control looks in 2022 and how many bats he can miss (his 18.3% strikeout rate was just a bit lower than you'd like to see in 2021), we'll see how just enticing the profile ends up looking.

10. C Nate Rombach, Dallas Baptist.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 11/26/2000. Hometown: Mansfield, TX.
2021: 9 HR, .222/.359/.521, 0 SB, 47/25 K/BB in 40 games.
If you look at Nate Rombach's career, you'll really see a story of two different players. He hit .333/.453/.750 with nine home runs over his first 25 games, spanning his shortened freshman season with the first six games of 2021, but his production fell off a cliff once the calendar turned to March and he hit just .106/.268/.242 over his next 24 games with a staggering 39% strikeout rate. Fortunately, Rombach started to bust out of that slump and homered in three straight games against Kansas, Baylor, and TCU in late May, then hit .298/.417/.394 over the summer in the California Collegiate League. So, after all of that, we're left with the question of who is the real Nate Rombach? He's a big, physical catcher at 6'4" with plus raw power from the right side, which he gets to in games when he's going right. I was in attendance for game #21 of that hot stretch to start his career, where he took eventual first round pick Gunnar Hoglund deep on a 93 MPH fastball and later produced very hard hit balls against a hard Hoglund slider and a slow Austin Miller curveball in the same game. He's patient in the box, but he doesn't always have the bat to ball skills to be successful in those deep counts and often came away on the losing end, especially during his slump. It may be a case of finding a balance in his two strike approach between toning down his big, powerful swing and still wanting to do damage. He'll likely always be power over hit, though if he can stick behind the plate, there is enough upside in the bat to be excited. Hopefully a change of scenery to Dallas Baptist near his hometown of Mansfield (where he'll team up with fellow transfer and #7 on this list Jacob Meador, who grew up one town over) will help him put it all together. Behind the plate, Rombach is a bit rough around the edges, but he's a big target back there and his cannon arm helps make back some of that value. With robo umps likely coming in the near future, he has a better chance to remain a catcher than he might have a few years ago. He's also known to have a strong work ethic, which will obviously benefit him on both sides of the ball.

The Top Ten Prospects Returning to School in 2022

After the 2020 draft, we saw an unprecedented number of draft-eligible college stars return to school because of the shortened draft, headlined by players like Florida's Tommy Mace, ECU's Gavin Williams, and Ohio State's Seth Lonsway (as I wrote about after the fact). Williams ended up being the first 2020-eligible player drafted in 2021 at 23rd overall, followed by Florida State's Matheu Nelson at 35th overall and Fordham's Matt Mikulski at 50th overall. While we certainly don't have the same depth in the 2021 class of returners given the fifteen extra rounds, we may have even greater star power at the top after a couple of early picks went unsigned, of course led by the high profile Kumar Rocker debacle. Let's take a look at the top ten draft prospects returning to school after being eligible in 2021. Rankings are from my personal board and the list goes by that board, not their 2022 draft status.

1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (?). 2021 rank: #10.
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
Most of us have heard all about this one by now. Kumar Rocker, the most famous name in college baseball, was drafted tenth overall by the Mets and initially agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but a dispute over his medical led to New York completely rescinding their offer, deciding the compensation they'd get in 2022 would be more valuable than giving him even a single penny to sign. Of course, that leaves Rocker in a pickle because he was in effect barred from playing affiliated professional baseball as a result, through no fault of his own. It sounds like he won't be going back to Vanderbilt in 2022, where he would head up a rotation with some ultra talented up-and-comers like Patrick Reilly and Christian Little. That could change, and as a fan of college baseball myself, I'd love to see that happen. There are plenty of independent league teams throughout the US that would kill for the opportunity to get him on their club, and he could also take the Carter Stewart route through Japan or another foreign professional league. Or he could just work out on his own and throw bullpens for scouts, which to me sounds pretty boring but could be the best way for him to control his future. If his stuff stays where it is now and he proves fully healthy one way or another, then he'll likely hear his name called in back to back first rounds a la Mark Appel (though let's hope his career goes a bit smoother than Appel's). We've all heard plenty about the stuff by now, but let's talk about it one more time. The 6'5" righty pounds the strike zone with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get into the upper 90's, though at times it can play a bit true and scouts have nitpicked his ability to command it within the zone. He throws a slider that can be double-plus at its best, such as when he used it to finish all nineteen of his strikeouts in a super regional no-hitter against Duke as a freshman, though at times it got a bit slurvy in 2021. Rocker has also developed a cutter that looks like an above average pitch and has shown solid feel for a changeup, though the latter was hit hard at times in 2021. There's obviously huge upside here as a true ace, but of course he has a lot of questions to answer in 2022.

2. OF Jud Fabian, Florida. 2021 rank: #22.
2021 stats: 20 HR, 46 RBI, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
Like Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian was drafted early (in this case 40th overall), but it was a slightly different situation. While Rocker and the Mets disagreed over his medicals and the Mets outright refused to offer him a dollar, Fabian and the Red Sox disagreed over money. Fabian made it clear he wanted something in the ballpark of $3 million and it was rumored that other teams farther down in the second round were willing to give it to him, but Boston took him earlier and offered him a fraction of that. Because Fabian is extremely young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September, he held extra leverage and was able to hold his ground for the bonus he wanted, and ultimately the Red Sox couldn't meet it. He'll return to Gainesville for a fourth season and will fit right in age-wise with the 2022 first-time college draftees, perhaps a hair on the older side but still in the same range as guys like Jace Jung, Hayden Dunhurst, and Chase DeLauter. Fabian stands out for a combination of feel and tools at a young age, showing plus raw power that he taps consistently in games including not one but two home runs off of second overall pick Jack Leiter. He had one of the best eyes in the class at determining balls from strikes and also did well with fastballs versus offspeed pitches, so he rarely chased even against quality SEC stuff. The only problem here was the pure bat to ball skills, as the Ocala native struggled mightily with swing and miss even on pitches in the zone. This was due to a quick uppercut that naturally comes with more swing and miss, but he got so streaky at times (including sixteen strikeouts in a five game span against South Carolina and Ole Miss) that teams were too nervous to give him his money in the first round. Back in Gainesville next year, he'll work to prove that he can catch up to premium SEC fastballs, and if he can have a slump-free run next spring, we could be talking top half of the first round.

3. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. 2021 rank: #99.
2021 stats: 4-2, 3.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 57/13 K/BB in 63.1 IP.
Jonathan Cannon entered the spring with a chance to pitch his way into the first round, and in January I had him right on the fringes of that first round range. He missed the start of the season with mono, then tossed six shutout innings over his first two starts against Georgia Southern and Lipscomb as he got back on track. However, he ultimately ended up looking much more "good" than "great," with seven scoreless innings against Vanderbilt on April 10th being his only true gem. Cannon sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 96-97 early in starts, and there have been times where he's been able to touch the mid 90's late in starts as well. He adds a horizontal slider with some snap and a changeup with nice fade, and while they both have their moments, they look closer to average than plus. The big 6'6" righty does an excellent job of filling up the strike zone and only walked multiple batters in three of his thirteen starts, though to this point the control is ahead of the command and he can get hit when he leaves pitches over the plate. Right now, the profile seems *this close* to being that of an impact starter, and he'll look to get over that hump back in Athens in 2022. If he can get just a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff or perhaps tighten his in-zone command just a hair, we have a top two rounds prospect. The Atlanta-area native was eligible as a sophomore last year with a July birthday so he'll be just slightly older than most first-time eligible players in 2022.

4. LHP Andrew Walling, Eastern Oklahoma State JC -> Mississippi State. 2021 rank: #103.
2021 stats: 10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 107/27 K/BB in 69.2 IP.
Eastern Oklahoma State College in Wilburton, Oklahoma compiled an extremely talented rotation in 2021, one that sent Christian McGowan to the Phillies in the seventh round and could have sent Andrew Walling to pro ball even earlier if he was signable. Instead, he'll head east to Mississippi State, where he'll help the Bulldogs fill the massive holes left by their top two starters, Will Bednar (Giants, first round) and Christian MacLeod (Twins, fifth round). Walling began his career at Oregon State but threw just 10.1 innings from 2019-2020 (while walking eleven), and consistent innings in Wilburton turned out to be just what he needed. His control improved to fringe-average, which helped his big stuff play up. The Longview, Washington native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 97-98, holding that velocity throughout his starts for the most part. He has great feel to spin the ball and shows a big curveball with depth and a sharp slider that he locates well, in addition to a decent changeup. The 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and a pretty repeatable delivery, and he has a very good chance to take over a weekend rotation spot in Starkville even as he competes with Jackson Fristoe, Landon Sims, and other holdovers. I would consider myself one of the high guys on Walling as far as the 2021 draft goes, and while he'll be on the older side in 2022 as he'll pitch the entire season at 22 years old, I definitely see mid-rotation upside.

5. OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt (?). My rank: #109.
2021 stats: 13 HR, 40 RBI, .305/.361/.583, 12 SB, 63/9 K/BB in 59 games.
Vanderbilt is returning a hell of a lineup next spring, with catcher CJ Rodriguez (A's, fifth round) and third baseman Jayson Gonzalez (White Sox, seventeenth round) being the only major losses. They didn't think they'd be getting back right fielder Isaiah Thomas, who might have the highest offensive ceiling in the entire program aside from potential 2022 first rounder Carter Young, but here we are. Few players anywhere in college baseball can scorch a line drive like Thomas, who packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and shows plus raw power from the right side. He's also shown a very accurate barrel that has consistently punished quality SEC pitching, which is especially notable because he was one of the most aggressive hitters in the draft class last year. Thomas swings at pretty much everything even remotely hittable, walking an average of just once every six and a half games while striking out at a 25.7% clip. Honestly to me, that makes his ability to do consistent damage against high-end pitching very impressive, and I really think the sky is the limit. In 2022, the South Florida native will really need to tone down his approach and show the ability to work counts rather than just hacking away until something happens, and if he can even get his K/BB ratio to something like a 2:1 or 3:1 rather than the 7:1 he showed in 2021, he could be one of the first seniors drafted.
*Update, the day after I published this article, Isaiah Thomas announced his intention to step away from the Vanderbilt baseball program for mental health reasons.

6. RHP Dylan Ross, Northwest Florida State JC -> Georgia. My rank: #158.
2021 stats: 6-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 77/28 K/BB in 60.1 IP.
Dylan Ross began his career at Eastern Kentucky, but earned just four innings out of the Colonels bullpen and transferred to Northwest Florida State in the panhandle. He showed flashes of dominance, such as when he struck out fifteen against Tallahassee JC, and now he'll return to his home state of Georgia to join Jonathan Cannon in the Bulldogs rotation and replace Ryan Webb (Indians, fourth round). Ross is all about power. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, so triple digits are not out of the question in 2022. He adds a short, tight slider in the mid to upper 80's that can miss bats when it's located, while his equally hard splitter really gets hitters off balance. The 6'5" righty has long levers and throws with some effort, so he often has a hard time keeping everything in sync and can get scattered. He was able to blow baseballs by Florida JuCo hitters and that masked some of his control questions, but the transition to more polished SEC hitters in 2022 will be closely watched. The Statesboro native also faces relief questions because everything he throws is hard, and he currently lacks the ability to change speeds and mess with hitters' timing like you'd expect from a starting pitcher. If the Georgia staff can help him develop something softer, perhaps a changeup or a curveball, that could go a long way, but of course the command does need to be addressed as well. He'll be age appropriate in 2022, pitching the whole season at 21 years old.

7. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #163.
2021 stats: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 IP.
Troy Melton continues the theme of younger players who weren't yet 21 on draft day. He's fairly new to pitching and when you combine that with his extreme youth, scouts were willing to give him more slack than most other prospects. However, he still wasn't quite effective enough this spring to give scouts confidence in projecting him as a starter, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts. Melton is a natural on the mound with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, while his lower release point and nice extension make the pitch play up. He adds a sweepy slider and a more top to bottom, get-me-over curveball, as well as a decent changeup. While he has a tendency to leave pitches over the plate, he shows average command and has a very repeatable delivery. The 6'4" righty moves extremely well on the mound and shows the kind of profile that will be really malleable once he gets into pro ball. Now that he'll be age-appropriate rather than a full year younger than his drat-eligible peers (he doesn't turn 21 until December), scouts will want to see a little more development in his game, but overall it's still a really fun ball of clay to work with. The Orange County native will go back to San Diego State in 2022 to prove that he can make it as a starting pitcher, hopefully taking that next step that scouts have been hoping for.

8. RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #183.
2021 stats: 2-6, 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB in 56.1 IP.
Mack Anglin was actually drafted by the Nationals in the thirteenth round as backup in case Brady House or Daylen Lile didn't sign, but they both did and Anglin wanted more money than Washington could offer him. He was eligible as a sophomore due to a July birthday, so after being relatively young for last year's class, he'll just be relatively old for this one. Anglin stands out for his ability to just rip through a baseball on the mound, getting exceptionally high spin rates on his stuff that really make the ball dance. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball and slider are unique, plus pitches. However, it's clearly a relief profile at this point because he has a high effort delivery and can struggle to throw consistent strikes, and for that reason, teams didn't want to meet his asking price. The central Ohio native has a chance to go back to Clemson and smooth things out a bit, and if he can, the pure stuff fits in the top one hundred picks. He was sharp in the Cape Cod League and struck out sixteen in 12.2 innings, but the delivery still looked a bit rushed and he still has a reliever profile for now. We'll see where that stands after another full season in the ACC.

9. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
2021 stats: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
I'd like to congratulate Brandon Birdsell for making this list two years in a row, as he ranked fifth a year ago coming out of San Jacinto JC. At this point last year, he was just breaking out as a prospect and had a ton of helium behind his name, but the fact that COVID shut down his breakout season meant that teams weren't quite comfortable enough with his track record to sign him away from a Texas Tech commitment. Birdsell continued that breakout in 2021 and allowed no more than one earned run in any of his final five starts, but unfortunately went down with a shoulder injury in April and never got back on the mound. Shoulders are really scary and teams were justifiably nervous to pay him like an impact pitching prospect, so he'll head back to Texas Tech in 2022 where he will look to prove his health. He has a good opportunity there with Mason Montgomery (Rays, sixth round), Ryan Sublette (Dodgers, seventh round), Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox, eighth round), and Patrick Monteverde (Marlins, eighth round) all gone to pro ball, as well as Micah Dallas having transferred to Texas A&M and Connor Queen graduating, so the Red Raiders are wide open for innings next spring. When healthy, the Southeast Texas product has two big league pitches in a mid 90's fastball that has gotten up to 99 as well as a power upper 80's slider. He also adds a newer curveball and a changeup that look solid at times but need more consistency. Birdsell pounds the strike zone and shows average command when healthy, so he has a chance to really improve his stock with a healthy 2022. That and further refinement of his curve or changeup will help teams project him as a starter, whereas if any of that lags, he might have more of a reliever outlook. The 6'2" righty was drafted by the Twins in the eleventh round this year but didn't sign.

10. LHP Austin Krob, Texas Christian. My rank: #186.
2021 stats: 8-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96/37 K/BB in 85 innings.
Austin Krob looked to be an interesting late day two option, but instead he went undrafted and is heading back to TCU for a third season, which was preceded by a year at Kirkwood JC in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Since he'll turn 22 in September, he's the oldest player on this list and will therefore be nearly 23 by the time he gets into pro ball. He was pretty dependable this spring and with Russell Smith (Brewers, second round) and Johnny Ray (White Sox, twelfth round) gone to pro ball, he's the only returning member of the weekend rotation. The 6'3" lefty is up to the task, showing solid command of a quality four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 94-95, while his sweepy slider and fading changeup are regularly above average. He can morph that slider into more of a downer curveball, though it's better when it's a true slider. Krob uses a low three quarters delivery that puts some lateral angle on the baseball, and while he doesn't figure to miss a ton of bats in pro ball, he profiles well as a back-end starter that can eat innings and generate weak contact. The Iowa native seems like he is what he is as a prospect, so staying healthy and continuing to miss bats in the Big 12 will be on his to-do list in 2022.

Others:
#191 LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina
#192 1B Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt
#194 LHP Pete Hansen, Texas
#196 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas
#201 RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State
#203 RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College
#216 OF Levi Usher, Louisville