The Cleveland system has thinned a bit in recent years as they have made their run at contention, and it is really impressive that many of their current stars like Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Jason Kipnis, and Cody Allen are all home grown. Even Carlos Carrasco and Michael Brantley were traded to the Indians before their MLB debuts, and Trevor Bauer came over as a rookie. When it comes to the farm system, it's about upside for the Indians. They have a few utility types and back-end starters around the system, but there are a lot of guys who have the potential to be either stars or busts. Though there is a greater quantity of potential impact hitters in the system, it's fairly well balanced from a positional standpoint. The big thing for Cleveland, though, is that it is thin on safe bets; a lot of these guys are all or nothing and the system isn't quite deep enough to support that.
Affiliates: AAA Columbus Clippers, AA Akron RubberDucks, High A Lynchburg Hillcats, Class A Lake County Captains, Short Season Mahoning Valley Scrappers, complex level AZL and DSL Indians
The Headliners: RHP Triston McKenzie and 3B Nolan Jones
While the Indians' system isn't all that deep behind these two, fans should be happy to have two legitimate impact prospects moving up through the system. 21 year old Triston McKenzie has ace upside, having dominated the minors so far with a 2.68 career ERA in over 300 innings with more room to grow. The skinny 6'5" righty from south Florida put together a very solid season at AA Akron after getting a late start due to forearm problems, going 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. At 24%, it was the lowest strikeout rate of his career, but that can be overlooked due to the fact that he was able to keep runners off the bases at a fairly young age for AA. He has good command of an advanced arsenal, and if he can add a little more weight and with it a little more velocity, it's not hard to envision him as an ace. Even as is, he has a very good shot at becoming at least a #2 or #3 starter. Meanwhile, 20 year old Nolan Jones is the team's top offensive prospect, erasing a meh 2017 by slashing .283/.405/.466 with 19 home runs and a 131/89 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games between Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg with no loss of production upon the promotion. He has power and plate discipline in the box and could be an impact hitter in the middle of the Indians lineup, and as a solid-fielding third baseman, he carries more defensive value than would an outfielder of similar ability. In a couple of years, it's not hard to see Jones ending up like his predecessor, Jose Ramirez.
Potential 2019 Contributors: 1B Bobby Bradley, SS Yu Chang, OF Oscar Mercado, OF Daniel Johnson, RHP Chih-Wei Hu, RHP Aaron Civale, and RHP James Karinchak
The Indians do have a fair number of guys who could make their debuts in 2019 (or in Hu's case, get back to the majors), and while most of them have very limited upside, some of them could break through and be more than role players. 22 year old Bobby Bradley has been a prospect for years, and it's kind of weird to think that he's just 22. This year, he slashed .224/.308/.464 with 27 home runs and a 148/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games between AA Akron and AAA Columbus, showing the exact same skill set he has shown all along: lots of power, some patience, and not much else. He now has 114 minor league home runs and doesn't even turn 23 until the end of May, but he has also struck out 626 times so far and it's still uncertain whether he'll be able to make enough contact in the majors for his power to matter. As a first baseman, he'll have to make at least some contact, even with the power. 23 year old Yu Chang also has power, but not as much as Bradley and he has much more defensive value. In 2018, he slashed .256/.330/.411 with 13 home runs and a 144/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Columbus. He struggles to make contact but with less power than Bradley, he's unlikely to ever hit enough to start in Cleveland. His defensive versatility does give him an opportunity to be a utility player though. 23 year old Oscar Mercado came over from the Cardinals and performed adequately well in AAA, slashing .278/.349/.390 with eight home runs, 37 stolen bases, and an 87/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games. He shows speed and some power, and while he looks more like a fourth outfielder at this point, his offensive breakout over the past two seasons could make him a fringe starter that garners significant playing time in what is, at least for now, a thin Cleveland outfield. Lastly, 23 year old Daniel Johnson was previously written up in the Washington Nationals piece, looking like a defense-first center fielder with speed and some power. After slashing .298/.356/.505 with 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases in A ball in 2017, he dipped to .269/.327/.412 with seven home runs and 22 stolen bases in 96 games in 2018, mostly in AA. He's another guy who looks like a fourth outfielder at first glance but who could surprise if he can get to his power enough, given the thin state of that Cleveland outfield. 25 year old Chih-Wei Hu has been knocking on the door to the majors for a few years, and after throwing 23 innings very solid innings for the Rays from 2017-2018 (3.52 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 21/7 K/BB), he is hoping to finally break through in 2019. He also posted a 4.66 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 92/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AAA in 2018, and while he could fit in as a #5 starter if given the chance with his good command of a deep arsenal, his best bet may be as a long reliever. 23 year old Aaron Civale has a little more upside, using his interesting profile to post a 3.89 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 78/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.1 innings at AA Akron in 2018. He throws low 90's but gets outs with a great slider, commanding it all extremely well. He has had success so far in the minors, but if he wants to cut it in the majors, he'll either need to add velocity or improve his changeup, because in his present state, he'll fare better as a reliever. 23 year old James Karinchak was a well known name in college baseball due to his success at Bryant University, but he fell to the ninth round due to concerns about his long term projectability. In 2018, he answered those concerns by dominating three levels of the minor leagues, posting a 1.29 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 81/36 strikeout walk ratio over 48.2 innings at Class A Lake County, High A Lynchburg, and AA Akron. While the walk rate was a bit frightening to say the least, the 6'3" righty also strikes out opponents in bunches and has the stuff to compete at the major league level. Honing in his control and throwing more strikes might be all he needs to be an impact reliever.
Mid-Minors Prospects: RHP Eli Morgan, LHP Sam Hentges, RHP Nick Sandlin, RHP Luis Oviedo, OF Will Benson, SS Richard Palacios, and LHP Brady Aiken
The mid-minors aren't as deep as the upper and lower minors, so I expanded this section somewhat into both in order to fill it. This section is pitching-heavy, with the two offensive prospects coming with a few question marks. We'll start with 22 year old Eli Morgan, a 2017 draftee out of Gonzaga who has dominated the minors with a 2.83 ERA since he was drafted. Splitting 2018 between Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg, the 5'10" righty put up a 3.27 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a very good 156/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.1 innings. He doesn't throw hard but is a master at attacking hitters smartly, and his excellent changeup seems to just drop off the table. He was more effective at Lake County (1.83 ERA, 56/8 K/BB) than at Lynchburg (3.91, 100/26), which means his ability to effectively beat major league hitters is still in question given his skill set, but I think he has a good chance to be a back-end starter. 22 year old Sam Hentges has progressed slowly through the minors due to Tommy John surgery but pitched well at High A Lynchburg in 2018, albeit in a different way than Morgan. Over 23 starts, he posted a 3.27 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 122/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings, showing good stuff but clearly room to grow to become a complete pitcher. He throws in the low to mid 90's and can hit you with a good slider, and at 6'6" and 245 pounds, he's an intimidating presence on the mound. However, he struggles to command his pitches and gets hit more than he should, and his future may be in the bullpen, where I think he could be a solid set-up man. 21 year old Nick Sandlin is a fascinating pitcher, having absolutely dominated college ball at Southern Miss this year by going 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 starts with an extremely unique profile. Sandlin is just 5'11" and throws in the low 90's, but he can throw from almost any arm angle while mixing five pitches along the way, meaning he could go an entire inning without throwing the same pitch from the same angle twice. His craftiness led to a solid pro debut in which he pitched well at four different levels, posting a 3.00 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between complex ball, Lake County, Lynchburg, and Akron. With his quite impressive command given all the arm angles, he actually didn't walk anybody in his three innings in complex ball or his 10.1 innings at Lake County, issuing his first walk up in Lynchburg. He looks like a reliever for now, but he could be the most interesting reliever since at least switch pitcher Pat Venditte. 19 year old Luis Oviedo may have been the most best, most unexpected development for the Indians farm system in 2018, with everything taking a step forward. Over eleven starts between Short Season Mahoning Valley and Class A Lake County, he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 67/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, bumping his velocity into the mid 90's, improving his offspeed pitches, and throwing more strikes. The 6'4" righty is still a little bit under the radar, but if he carries over his success into 2019, he could position himself to be the top pitching prospect in the system upon Triston McKenzie's graduation to the majors. 20 year old Will Benson is an interesting prospect as a power hitter with good defense who just can't make contact. Over 123 games at Lake County in 2018, he slashed .180/.324/.370 with 22 home runs and a 152/82 strikeout to walk ratio, and the numbers speak for himself. At 6'5" and 225 pounds and with a quick left handed swing, he shows huge power, and with a good eye at the plate, he draws plenty of walks and can make up for low batting averages. However, in order to move up, he has to get better extension on his swing, which hampers his contact and causes those extremely low batting averages. 21 year old Richard Palacios was drafted out of Towson in the third round (103rd overall) in 2018, noted for his exceptional plate discipline around an otherwise average skill set. He had a very successful debut, slashing .361/.421/.538 with six home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball, Mahoning Valley, and Lake County. That plate discipline carried through into the minors and he showed more sock in his bat than anticipated, though obviously in a small sample size. A shortstop now, there's a chance he moves to second base, and I see him overall as a utility man. Lastly, 22 year old Brady Aiken isn't really a prospect anymore after missing the 2018 season due to another injury, but he's on here just by virtue of being the first overall pick of the 2014 draft (and 17th overall in 2015). His command has completely fallen apart (he walked 101 batters in 132 innings at Lake County in 2017), he can't stay healthy, and he's not fooling hitters. At this point, he's likely to join 2013 first overall pick Mark Appel on the list of first overall picks to never make the majors.
The Distant Future: RHP Ethan Hankins, RHP Lenny Torres, C Noah Naylor, SS Tyler Freeman, OF George Valera, SS Brayan Rocchio, SS Aaron Bracho, and SS Gabriel Rodriguez,
Some of the best talent in the D-Backs system is concentrated at the very bottom, especially when it comes to hitters. They have been very active in the Latin American market and have added numerous players who could be impact prospects in a few years, and out of this group, they should have no problem finding a shortstop to replace Francisco Lindor if he walks as a free agent. Starting with the arms, 18 year old Ethan Hankins may have the highest upside in the system among pitchers, having been drafted in the comp round (35th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2018. His short pro debut was nothing remarkable (3 IP, 2 ER, 6/0 K/BB in complex ball), but the stuff is. On the right day, the 6'6" righty can throw upper 90's with a good changeup and a developing curveball/slider contingent. However, he is extremely inconsistent at this point, even for a teenager, both with his velocity and with the quality of his stuff. He will take a lot of development and also some luck staying away from injuries, but if he stays healthy and develops as hoped, he could be an ace. If not, the bullpen is a solid fallback, where he could be an electric late-inning reliever. 18 year old Lenny Torres was drafted six picks later (41st overall) out of a New York high school, and he is similarly raw. He had a larger debut (1.76 ERA, 22/4 K/BB, 15.1 IP in complex ball), and he comes at hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a good slider, though the rest of his game needs development. His command is pretty decent, but as a slim-shouldered, 6'1" righty, he is smaller than most starting pitchers and he will have to prove that he can handle a pro starter's workload. If not, his fastball/slider combination should work well in the bullpen. Moving onto hitters, 18 year old catcher Noah Naylor was drafted 29th overall in 2018, six picks before Hankins and twelve before Torres. He's a catcher straight out of high school near Toronto, slashing .274/.381/.402 with a pair of home runs and a 28/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games in complex ball. He's a bat-first catcher, one with the power and patience at the plate to profile well as a major leaguer regardless of what position he end up at, though the Indians obviously hope he can improve his defense enough to remain a catcher. Unlike some of the power hitters ahead of him, he doesn't project to have serious strikeout issues of Bobby Bradley, Will Benson, etc. 19 year old Tyler Freeman spent 2018 at Short Season Mahoning Valley, slashing an impressive .352/.405/.511 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 games. His best tool is his exceptional ability to make contact and find the barrel, leading to low strikeout rates but also to low walk rates, limiting his on-base percentage. He doesn't hit for much power and his infield defense is average, so he may end up a second baseman. He'll have to continue to hit for high averages to remain relevant. Lastly, 17 year olds George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, and Aaron Bracho were all signed out of Latin America in the 2017 signing period and 16 year old Gabriel Rodriguez came in the 2018 period, though none have had time to make a real impact yet. Valera, who has played six games in complex ball and homered while slashing .333/.409/.556, is considered the top prospect of the four as he shows great bat speed from a smooth left handed swing. The outfielder could also hit for some power despite standing just 5'10", and he has a good shot at making it through the long road to the majors from complex ball. Rocchio, meanwhile played 60 games in complex ball and slashed .335/.390/.442 with a pair of home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 31/15 strikeout to walk ratio. Like Valera, he's just 5'10" but shows a very advanced bat for a 17 year old, though he's faster and does not project to have as much power. A shortstop right now, he could be able to stick there if he can maintain his athleticism as he gets stronger. Bracho and Rodriguez have not played in the minors yet, with the 17 year old Bracho projecting fairly similarly to the 16 year old Rodriguez. Both are shortstops, though Rodriguez is taller and skinnier while Bracho, a switch hitter like Rocchio, has a slightly more advanced bat.
Cool Names: C Sicnarf Loopstok and 2B Makesiondon Kelkboom
Lastly, I would be remiss to leave out possibly the most outlandishly named pair in all of minor league baseball, though neither 25 year old Sicnarf Loopstok nor 18 year old Makesiondon Kelkboom are legitimate prospects at this point. Loopstok slashed .225/.361/.418 with nine home runs and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games at AA Akron, showing good plate discipline and some moderate power, but overall he looks to be a back-up catcher at absolute best with little sock in the bat and a 26th birthday approaching in April. Kelkboom, a cousin of Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, slashed just .127/.292/.211 in complex ball this year, like Loopstok showing the ability to draw a walk but little else.
Showing posts with label Noah Naylor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Noah Naylor. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
Saturday, June 16, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians
First 5 rounds: Noah Naylor (1-29), Ethan Hankins (1-35), Lenny Torres (CBA-41), Nick Sandlin (2-67), Richard Palacios (3-103), Adam Scott (4-133), Steven Kwan (5-163)
Also notable: Raynel Delgado (6-193), Antoine Duplantis (19-583), Cody Farhat (23-703)
The Indians like to mix up their drafts and grab some of the less conventional players in the early rounds, then move on to high floor guys as the draft moves forward. While first rounder Noah Naylor isn't an ultra-unique player, the next three picks definitely fit that description, and this strategy usually works well for them. Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber are their best recent draft picks, showing that they do well with pitchers (Brady Aiken aside), and they'll look to add to their success this year. Interestingly the players they selected early from college all had great strikeout to walk ratios, with pitchers Nick Sandlin (2nd round) and Adam Scott (4th round) combining for a 281/36 ratio and hitters Richard Palacios (3rd round) and Steven Kwan (5th round) combining for a 31/100 ratio.
1-29: C Noah Naylor (my rank: 29)
I'm not a fan of taking high school catchers early, but I am okay with this Noah Naylor pick in the first round. The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Noah as plenty of power but also shows advanced plate discipline for his age, giving him the opportunity to be an impact hitter at the major league level. While most catchers who have to move off the position usually end up at first base, he has the athleticism to play third base, and that really helps his stock if he doesn't stick as a catcher. He has room to add power, in my opinion, if he can gain more ground with his swing, though his defense could use work. He has a strong arm but needs to improve his receiving; as with all high catchers, there is risk here, but I think the risk is less than most and he has the potential to be an impact player in Cleveland. The Toronto-area native has not signed yet, with the slot-value sitting just over $2.3 million.
1-35: RHP Ethan Hankins (my rank: 22)
The Indians made a somewhat similar pick with Brady Aiken with the 17th selection in 2016, but they'll hope Hankins performs a bit better. He's a very interesting prospect (a theme you'll notice in this Cleveland draft), as he had top five buzz entering the spring but found his stock bouncing all over the place throughout the season. Hankins is a high school pitcher from the Atlanta area that throws his fastball in the mid 90's, touching 98, and the lateral movement on that fastball makes it a plus-plus pitch. On top of that, he can command it well, making it nearly un-hittable. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler, with his breaking ball being the only question for him, stuff-wise, when he's healthy. He throws a slider and a curve, and while neither has been particularly special, I do like the shape on the curve and I think it could develop into a usable pitch. He's projectable at 6'6" and is younger for the class with his 18th birthday coming less than a month ago in May, and together that adds up to a top ten profile. However, there are some significant downsides in his profile beyond just his breaking ball. He missed a month earlier this season with shoulder issues, which are a very big deal for young pitchers. The effects of the injury caused his stuff to be very inconsistent this year, with his fastball dipping below 90 at times and his changeup occasionally flattening out. Hankins has a wide range of possible outcomes as a pitcher, anywhere from becoming an ace to a high leverage reliever to an A-ball could-have-been that blows out his shoulder and never is the same. Time will tell, but the Indians did have three of the first 41 picks and could afford to take a risk on this one. He has not signed, but will likely require more than the just over $2 million slot in order to be drawn away from Vanderbilt.
CBA-41: RHP Lenny Torres (my rank: 43)
Torres is another guy with a bit of a unique profile, as he is a skinny, 6'2" high school right hander from Beacon, New York, about 50 miles north of the Bronx. He gets great arm speed in his delivery, truly unleashing his pitches rather than forcing them, and he runs his fastball up to the mid 90's consistently. The live armed righty also has a pretty good slider which should get better with pro coaching, and he has a decent changeup as well. Like Hankins, he's a high risk pick due to the fact that he's just so raw as a player, which is understandable coming from New York, but he's very young for the class and won't be 18 until October. He also hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just over $1.7 million.
2-67: RHP Nick Sandlin (unranked)
Sandlin is a fascinating player who had a fantastic season at Southern Miss in a very interesting way. The 5'11" righty went 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 102 innings, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He is the ultimate deception pitcher, sometimes throwing overhand, sometimes, submarine, and everywhere in between. He doesn't throw particularly hard, sitting anywhere from the upper 80's to the low 90's, but the fastball is so hard to hit due to its life and the fact that you'll have no idea where it's coming from. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup, and all of them can come from any arm slot. He has the stamina to last as a starter, averaging almost seven innings per start and throwing three complete game shutouts this year, but pro hitters might be able to pick up on the deception. He did dominate the Cape Cod League as well, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, though that was as a reliever. The Indians will run him out as a starter, but his stuff will play up in relief and that may be his ultimate destination. Fun fact, he was the first Indians selection this year to have been born in the 20th century. Feel old yet? He signed for $750,000, which his $189,700 under slot.
3-103: SS Richard Palacios (unranked)
Palacios has played shortstop at Towson University, but he's probably a second baseman at the next level. He has the bat to profile there, putting up a .301/.457/.515 line with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 16/52 strikeout to walk ratio as a junior. That strikeout to walk ratio stands out the most, as he is very selective and gets on base at a great clip while also avoiding swinging through bad pitches. That should help him advance fairly quickly through the minors, with the rest of his offensive game showing average or better. Because speed and plate discipline are his only plus tools, he'll probably end up a utility guy who plays second base and some outfield, but the ability to move quickly makes him an attractive option. He already signed for $475,000, which is $69,200 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Adam Scott is coming off a breakout senior year at Wofford where he went 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an excellent 137/18 strikeout to walk ratio. The polished left hander will try to work his way up as a back-end starter, but his biggest contribution so far has been signing for just $50,000, saving the Indians $356,300 against their bonus pool. 5th rounder Steven Kwan plays center field at Oregon State, and I'm actually watching him in the College World Series as I type this. Kwan is a similar player to his teammate, fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal, showing great bat to ball and speed abilities from a skinny, 5'8" frame. He slashed .357/.465/.463 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an excellent 15/48 strikeout to walk ratio. He'll never hit for power, but the combination of patience, contact, and speed should get him a job as a fourth outfielder. 6th rounder Raynel Delgado is a switch hitting high schooler from Florida who generates power from a big, powerful swing that causes his eye level to change as he swings. He was drafted as a third baseman but his position at the next level remains unclear; the bat is the attractive piece here, and the ceiling is high if Cleveland can streamline his swing. He did sign for $900,000, which is $664,400 over slot. I'm not sure 19th rounder Antoine Duplantis signs here, possibly heading back to LSU for his senior year. He's well known to college fans as a three year starter in Baton Rouge, putting up three very similar seasons that combined for a .324/.381/.420 slash line, six home runs, 51 stolen bases, and an 88/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 203 games. He's a contact hitter with the ability to get on base, steal bases, and play solid defense in center field. 23rd rounder Cody Farhat is another well-known college performer, manning center field for Texas Tech. He was better as a sophomore (.343/.438/.569, 3 HR, 21/16 K/BB) than as a junior (.294/.420/.443, 5 HR, 36/31 K/BB), but the biggest value is in his glove, as he is an excellent defensive center fielder.
Also notable: Raynel Delgado (6-193), Antoine Duplantis (19-583), Cody Farhat (23-703)
The Indians like to mix up their drafts and grab some of the less conventional players in the early rounds, then move on to high floor guys as the draft moves forward. While first rounder Noah Naylor isn't an ultra-unique player, the next three picks definitely fit that description, and this strategy usually works well for them. Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber are their best recent draft picks, showing that they do well with pitchers (Brady Aiken aside), and they'll look to add to their success this year. Interestingly the players they selected early from college all had great strikeout to walk ratios, with pitchers Nick Sandlin (2nd round) and Adam Scott (4th round) combining for a 281/36 ratio and hitters Richard Palacios (3rd round) and Steven Kwan (5th round) combining for a 31/100 ratio.
1-29: C Noah Naylor (my rank: 29)
I'm not a fan of taking high school catchers early, but I am okay with this Noah Naylor pick in the first round. The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Noah as plenty of power but also shows advanced plate discipline for his age, giving him the opportunity to be an impact hitter at the major league level. While most catchers who have to move off the position usually end up at first base, he has the athleticism to play third base, and that really helps his stock if he doesn't stick as a catcher. He has room to add power, in my opinion, if he can gain more ground with his swing, though his defense could use work. He has a strong arm but needs to improve his receiving; as with all high catchers, there is risk here, but I think the risk is less than most and he has the potential to be an impact player in Cleveland. The Toronto-area native has not signed yet, with the slot-value sitting just over $2.3 million.
1-35: RHP Ethan Hankins (my rank: 22)
The Indians made a somewhat similar pick with Brady Aiken with the 17th selection in 2016, but they'll hope Hankins performs a bit better. He's a very interesting prospect (a theme you'll notice in this Cleveland draft), as he had top five buzz entering the spring but found his stock bouncing all over the place throughout the season. Hankins is a high school pitcher from the Atlanta area that throws his fastball in the mid 90's, touching 98, and the lateral movement on that fastball makes it a plus-plus pitch. On top of that, he can command it well, making it nearly un-hittable. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler, with his breaking ball being the only question for him, stuff-wise, when he's healthy. He throws a slider and a curve, and while neither has been particularly special, I do like the shape on the curve and I think it could develop into a usable pitch. He's projectable at 6'6" and is younger for the class with his 18th birthday coming less than a month ago in May, and together that adds up to a top ten profile. However, there are some significant downsides in his profile beyond just his breaking ball. He missed a month earlier this season with shoulder issues, which are a very big deal for young pitchers. The effects of the injury caused his stuff to be very inconsistent this year, with his fastball dipping below 90 at times and his changeup occasionally flattening out. Hankins has a wide range of possible outcomes as a pitcher, anywhere from becoming an ace to a high leverage reliever to an A-ball could-have-been that blows out his shoulder and never is the same. Time will tell, but the Indians did have three of the first 41 picks and could afford to take a risk on this one. He has not signed, but will likely require more than the just over $2 million slot in order to be drawn away from Vanderbilt.
CBA-41: RHP Lenny Torres (my rank: 43)
Torres is another guy with a bit of a unique profile, as he is a skinny, 6'2" high school right hander from Beacon, New York, about 50 miles north of the Bronx. He gets great arm speed in his delivery, truly unleashing his pitches rather than forcing them, and he runs his fastball up to the mid 90's consistently. The live armed righty also has a pretty good slider which should get better with pro coaching, and he has a decent changeup as well. Like Hankins, he's a high risk pick due to the fact that he's just so raw as a player, which is understandable coming from New York, but he's very young for the class and won't be 18 until October. He also hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just over $1.7 million.
2-67: RHP Nick Sandlin (unranked)
Sandlin is a fascinating player who had a fantastic season at Southern Miss in a very interesting way. The 5'11" righty went 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 102 innings, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He is the ultimate deception pitcher, sometimes throwing overhand, sometimes, submarine, and everywhere in between. He doesn't throw particularly hard, sitting anywhere from the upper 80's to the low 90's, but the fastball is so hard to hit due to its life and the fact that you'll have no idea where it's coming from. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup, and all of them can come from any arm slot. He has the stamina to last as a starter, averaging almost seven innings per start and throwing three complete game shutouts this year, but pro hitters might be able to pick up on the deception. He did dominate the Cape Cod League as well, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, though that was as a reliever. The Indians will run him out as a starter, but his stuff will play up in relief and that may be his ultimate destination. Fun fact, he was the first Indians selection this year to have been born in the 20th century. Feel old yet? He signed for $750,000, which his $189,700 under slot.
3-103: SS Richard Palacios (unranked)
Palacios has played shortstop at Towson University, but he's probably a second baseman at the next level. He has the bat to profile there, putting up a .301/.457/.515 line with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 16/52 strikeout to walk ratio as a junior. That strikeout to walk ratio stands out the most, as he is very selective and gets on base at a great clip while also avoiding swinging through bad pitches. That should help him advance fairly quickly through the minors, with the rest of his offensive game showing average or better. Because speed and plate discipline are his only plus tools, he'll probably end up a utility guy who plays second base and some outfield, but the ability to move quickly makes him an attractive option. He already signed for $475,000, which is $69,200 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Adam Scott is coming off a breakout senior year at Wofford where he went 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an excellent 137/18 strikeout to walk ratio. The polished left hander will try to work his way up as a back-end starter, but his biggest contribution so far has been signing for just $50,000, saving the Indians $356,300 against their bonus pool. 5th rounder Steven Kwan plays center field at Oregon State, and I'm actually watching him in the College World Series as I type this. Kwan is a similar player to his teammate, fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal, showing great bat to ball and speed abilities from a skinny, 5'8" frame. He slashed .357/.465/.463 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an excellent 15/48 strikeout to walk ratio. He'll never hit for power, but the combination of patience, contact, and speed should get him a job as a fourth outfielder. 6th rounder Raynel Delgado is a switch hitting high schooler from Florida who generates power from a big, powerful swing that causes his eye level to change as he swings. He was drafted as a third baseman but his position at the next level remains unclear; the bat is the attractive piece here, and the ceiling is high if Cleveland can streamline his swing. He did sign for $900,000, which is $664,400 over slot. I'm not sure 19th rounder Antoine Duplantis signs here, possibly heading back to LSU for his senior year. He's well known to college fans as a three year starter in Baton Rouge, putting up three very similar seasons that combined for a .324/.381/.420 slash line, six home runs, 51 stolen bases, and an 88/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 203 games. He's a contact hitter with the ability to get on base, steal bases, and play solid defense in center field. 23rd rounder Cody Farhat is another well-known college performer, manning center field for Texas Tech. He was better as a sophomore (.343/.438/.569, 3 HR, 21/16 K/BB) than as a junior (.294/.420/.443, 5 HR, 36/31 K/BB), but the biggest value is in his glove, as he is an excellent defensive center fielder.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Catchers
This will be my first in a series of position-by-position lists for the top players in the 2018 MLB Draft. The list is drawn from all eligible players, including high school, junior college, and four year college. It is based on my own analysis from video and online scouting reports.
This year's catching class is led by Joey Bart, who will look to join Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, and fellow Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Matt Wieters as one of the best catchers to come out of college baseball in recent memory. Noah Naylor, Anthony Seigler, and Will Banfield make up the top tier of high school catching, which is typically a very risky demographic that I would try to steer away from if I were a decision maker. After him, Josh Breaux leads the JuCo pack, and J.J. Schwarz, Cal Raleigh, and Ryan Jeffers provide more power from the college side. A few of these guys may have to move off catcher as they move up through the levels, but good catching is hard to find these days and the risk is often worthwhile.
1. Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
Bart isn't just the best catcher in this draft, but he's the best catching prospect in any draft since Florida's Mike Zunino in 2012, and while he may not beat Zunino's landing spot at third overall, he has a very good chance to have a better career. After a very solid sophomore season where he slashed .296/.370/.575 with 13 home runs in 44 games, he took a huge step forward in 2018, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs in 57 games. He also dropped his strikeout rate moderately from 24% to 20.6% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is real, as Bart can mash baseballs out of sight and has done so regularly. He has also greatly improved his defensive game, as scouts love the way he handles pitchers and he has gone from a fringe-average defender to an above average one with a cannon arm. His ceiling is that of Gary Sanchez, and he has a very good shot to at least match Zunino as a power hitting, solid fielding every day catcher. He's likely to go in the top five picks and certainly won't last past the top ten.
2. Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
Padres prospect Josh Naylor's younger brother has a chance to be a first round pick as well. High school catchers are notoriously risky, but Naylor's big bat will help ease teams' worries about drafting one. The Ontario native has big time power from the left side and does have plenty of feel to hit, so even if he has to move off of catcher, the bat should be able to carry him even as a first baseman. Personally, I think he could add even more power if he learns to gain more ground with his load. He does have a backup plan before first base, as he is a competent defender at third, and it won't take much improvement in his defense there for him to stay there. With his solid arm and adequate receiving skills, he's a catcher for now, and if he can stay there, he could start in the majors. Naylor looks to go towards the back of the first round and is committed to Texas A&M.
3. Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
Seigler has had some helium during this draft, and could actually hear his name called before Naylor's. The switch hitter generates pop from both sides of the plate, but that power is more a product of his solid feel for the barrel than of his brute strength. He's the most athletic catcher available among top five round talents, showing solid defense behind the plate and enough agility to actually profile at some infield spots as well. However, he does turn 19 just after the draft, making him one of the older players in this year's high school class. As a couple of fun facts, he is half Navajo and can also switch pitch in addition to switch hitting. He's committed to Florida.
4. Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
Across the Atlanta metro area is Will Banfield, perhaps the best defensive catcher among top five round prospects. His arm is arguably the best in the class, and he combines that with agility behind the plate that can match up with Seigler's. However, his bat lags behind his glove, as he has shown little feel for the barrel and that can kill a career. If a pro team can help him find the barrel more often, he does have loft in his swing and could hit for some power, but it's a big if, especially with the rigors of catching. He has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than the other guys on this list and is committed to Vanderbilt, which could make him a tough sign if he falls past the early second round.
5. Josh Breaux (McLennan JC, TX)
Breaux is more of a third tier catcher, as opposed to Naylor, Seigler, and Banfield, who are second tier guys, but his power is as loud as anybody's aside from Bart. The JuCo standout absolutely raked this year at .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs in 56 games, granted that is against lower level pitching from other junior colleges around Texas. There is worry about his contact, as he takes a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach at the plate, which knocks him out of the first two rounds, and his defense behind the plate is just adequate. However, he has a cannon arm that can produce 100 MPH fastballs on the mound, so he could conceivably be a passable defender overall with a little bit of improvement with the glove. He has battled some arm injuries this year, which could sap his arm strength and delay his development if they continue to resurface. He is committed to Arkansas for his upper-classman years.
Others: Kameron Guangorena (St. John Bosco HS, CA), Cal Raleigh (Florida State), Ryan Jeffers (UNC Wilmington), J.J. Schwarz (Florida)
This year's catching class is led by Joey Bart, who will look to join Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, and fellow Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket Matt Wieters as one of the best catchers to come out of college baseball in recent memory. Noah Naylor, Anthony Seigler, and Will Banfield make up the top tier of high school catching, which is typically a very risky demographic that I would try to steer away from if I were a decision maker. After him, Josh Breaux leads the JuCo pack, and J.J. Schwarz, Cal Raleigh, and Ryan Jeffers provide more power from the college side. A few of these guys may have to move off catcher as they move up through the levels, but good catching is hard to find these days and the risk is often worthwhile.
1. Joey Bart (Georgia Tech)
Bart isn't just the best catcher in this draft, but he's the best catching prospect in any draft since Florida's Mike Zunino in 2012, and while he may not beat Zunino's landing spot at third overall, he has a very good chance to have a better career. After a very solid sophomore season where he slashed .296/.370/.575 with 13 home runs in 44 games, he took a huge step forward in 2018, slashing .359/.471/.632 with 16 home runs in 57 games. He also dropped his strikeout rate moderately from 24% to 20.6% while nearly doubling his walk rate from 7.7% to 15.1%. The power is real, as Bart can mash baseballs out of sight and has done so regularly. He has also greatly improved his defensive game, as scouts love the way he handles pitchers and he has gone from a fringe-average defender to an above average one with a cannon arm. His ceiling is that of Gary Sanchez, and he has a very good shot to at least match Zunino as a power hitting, solid fielding every day catcher. He's likely to go in the top five picks and certainly won't last past the top ten.
2. Noah Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS, ON)
Padres prospect Josh Naylor's younger brother has a chance to be a first round pick as well. High school catchers are notoriously risky, but Naylor's big bat will help ease teams' worries about drafting one. The Ontario native has big time power from the left side and does have plenty of feel to hit, so even if he has to move off of catcher, the bat should be able to carry him even as a first baseman. Personally, I think he could add even more power if he learns to gain more ground with his load. He does have a backup plan before first base, as he is a competent defender at third, and it won't take much improvement in his defense there for him to stay there. With his solid arm and adequate receiving skills, he's a catcher for now, and if he can stay there, he could start in the majors. Naylor looks to go towards the back of the first round and is committed to Texas A&M.
3. Anthony Seigler (Cartersville HS, GA)
Seigler has had some helium during this draft, and could actually hear his name called before Naylor's. The switch hitter generates pop from both sides of the plate, but that power is more a product of his solid feel for the barrel than of his brute strength. He's the most athletic catcher available among top five round talents, showing solid defense behind the plate and enough agility to actually profile at some infield spots as well. However, he does turn 19 just after the draft, making him one of the older players in this year's high school class. As a couple of fun facts, he is half Navajo and can also switch pitch in addition to switch hitting. He's committed to Florida.
4. Will Banfield (Brookwood HS, GA)
Across the Atlanta metro area is Will Banfield, perhaps the best defensive catcher among top five round prospects. His arm is arguably the best in the class, and he combines that with agility behind the plate that can match up with Seigler's. However, his bat lags behind his glove, as he has shown little feel for the barrel and that can kill a career. If a pro team can help him find the barrel more often, he does have loft in his swing and could hit for some power, but it's a big if, especially with the rigors of catching. He has a higher ceiling but a lower floor than the other guys on this list and is committed to Vanderbilt, which could make him a tough sign if he falls past the early second round.
5. Josh Breaux (McLennan JC, TX)
Breaux is more of a third tier catcher, as opposed to Naylor, Seigler, and Banfield, who are second tier guys, but his power is as loud as anybody's aside from Bart. The JuCo standout absolutely raked this year at .404/.532/.831 with 18 home runs in 56 games, granted that is against lower level pitching from other junior colleges around Texas. There is worry about his contact, as he takes a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach at the plate, which knocks him out of the first two rounds, and his defense behind the plate is just adequate. However, he has a cannon arm that can produce 100 MPH fastballs on the mound, so he could conceivably be a passable defender overall with a little bit of improvement with the glove. He has battled some arm injuries this year, which could sap his arm strength and delay his development if they continue to resurface. He is committed to Arkansas for his upper-classman years.
Others: Kameron Guangorena (St. John Bosco HS, CA), Cal Raleigh (Florida State), Ryan Jeffers (UNC Wilmington), J.J. Schwarz (Florida)
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