Showing posts with label Manny Machado. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Manny Machado. Show all posts

Saturday, October 8, 2022

2022 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Stat line: 62 HR, .311/.425/.686, 16 SB, 207 wRC+, 11.4 fWAR in 157 games
All due respect to Shohei Ohtani, seriously. I cannot emphasize enough how incredible he is, and if he hits and pitches at a high level every year, I have no problem with him winning the MVP every year. It should take a truly historic season to top an ace pitcher/middle of the order hitter, and unfortunately for Shohei, that's just what Aaron Judge provided this year. We all know his 62 home runs are the most by a hitter since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa hit 73 and 64, respectively, in 2001, as well as the most home runs ever by an American League hitter. But not only that, his .686 slugging percentage was the highest in a non-shortened season since J.D. Martinez slugged .690 in 2017, while his 1.111 OPS was the highest since prime Albert Pujols reached 1.115 in 2008. What's more is that he did all this in a year where offense was down across the board, so his 207 wRC+ made him the first member of the 200 club since Barry Bonds in 2004. Throw in very solid outfield defense, and Aaron Judge's 11.4 fWAR was the seventeenth highest total in MLB history, again the highest since Barry Bonds in 2004. Only eight different players – Bonds, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, and Honus Wagner – have ever topped that number, and only Bonds and Mantle did so since integration. Overall, he led the American League this year in home runs, RBI (131), runs scored (133), walks (111), total bases (391), on-base percentage (.425), slugging percentage, OPS, wRC+, and WAR, and many of those weren't even close. Judge hit for tremendous power and got on base at a top-of-the-league clip in a year where offense was down across the board, threw in solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, and put up an all time great season. Shohei Ohtani is unbelievable, but there is no denying what Aaron Judge did this year is legendary.

Runner-up: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 34 HR, .273/.356/.519, 11 SB, 142 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR in 157 games
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
I am of the belief that if Shohei Ohtani plays at this level every year, then he should win the MVP every year, and he would have this year if Aaron Judge didn't hit 62 home runs and throw up eleven-plus WAR. A year ago, he deservedly won the AL MVP after posting a 3.18 ERA over 130.1 innings and a 151 wRC+ over 158 games as a hitter. This year, he dropped that ERA nearly a run to 2.33, threw 35.2 additional innings, and maintained nearly the same wRC+ at 142 over 157 games as a hitter. All told, he was probably even better this year than he was last year. Just isolating his bat, he was the American League's seventh best hitter by wRC+, ahead of stars like Rafael Devers (141), Carlos Correa (140), Jose Ramirez (139), Alex Bregman (136), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (132). His 34 home runs also placed third in the league and despite spending all that time on the mound, he still stepped to the plate 666 times, ninth most in the AL. And he still found the time to steal eleven bases. Flip over to the mound, and his numbers were perhaps even more impressive. He accumulated 5.6 fWAR as a pitcher, good for third in the AL behind Justin Verlander (6.1) and Kevin Gausman (5.7), while his 2.33 ERA finished fourth and his 2.40 FIP came in second. So we are talking about perhaps a top ten hitter and a top five pitcher in the league – nobody will ever do that again. In fact, if some player comes around and so much as posts an ERA in the 4's with a league average bat, that would be incredible, but we wouldn't see it that way because Ohtani has spoiled us.

Honorable mention: 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Stat line: 28 HR, .300/.387/.533, 18 SB, 164 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games
I went back and forth, back and forth on this third spot between Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez, who had extremely similar seasons as all-around well above average hitters with some speed and solid if unspectacular gloves on the infield dirt. Altuve was clearly the better hitter, as he finished 20, 32, and 19 points, respectively, ahead of Ramirez in the three triple slash categories of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, while his 164 wRC+ dwarfed Ramirez's very respectable 139. However, Ramirez also played in 16 more games than Altuve, missing just five Guardians games to Altuve's 21. I initially leaned Altuve due to the bat, moved over to Ramirez when I looked closer and decided that his 16 extra games were enough to overcome the offensive gap, then came back to Altuve when I looked at how their production was spread out throughout the year. Ramirez came out of the gate extremely hot, slashing .342/.411/.722 in April and holding a .288/.368/.576 slash line through the first half, but he gradually slowed down throughout the season as his OPS dropped in every month besides October and he hit just .269/.339/.439 in the second half as his teammates stepped up to put the finishing touches on the AL Central title run. Altuve, meanwhile, was a non-factor in April as he missed time with a hamstring injury and didn't hit much when he was on the field, but once he got over that and found his groove, there was no turning back. From May onwards, he was one of the best hitters in baseball as he slashed .310/.396/.554 and picked up all 6.6 of his fWAR – the third most in baseball in that stretch, behind only Aaron Judge's 10.4 and Paul Goldschmidt's 6.8. Wins in April count just as much as wins in September, but there's something to be said about momentum. Altuve was a non-factor in April and was excellent from May onwards, while Ramirez was exceptional to start the season and gradually slowed down.

Others
3B Jose Ramirez (Guardians): 29 HR, .280/.355/.514, 20 SB, 139 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR in 157 games
DH Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 37 HR, .306/.406/.613, 1 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games
RHP Justin Verlander (Astros): 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
3B Alex Bregman (Astros): 23 HR, .259/.366/.454, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 155 games
2B Andres Gimenez (Guardians): 17 HR, .297/.371/.466, 20 SB, 140 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 146 games

National League MVP

Winner: 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 30 HR, .293/.358/.533, 5 SB, 151 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR in 148 games
If you look at the raw offensive numbers for Nolan Arenado, you may not be overly impressed. His .381 wOBA would not stand out in most seasons, but offense was down across MLB in 2022 and it actually came out to the fourth best mark in the National League, and just barely behind Manny Machado's third place .382. He didn't actually lead the NL in any individual stat, but in addition to finishing fourth in wOBA he was also second in fWAR, third in slugging percentage, third in doubles, fourth in wRC+, fourth in OPS, and fifth in extra base hits (73). He did all that while finishing with the third lowest strikeout rate in the league at 11.6%, behind only contact artists Jeff McNeil and Nico Hoerner – in fact, you can throw in Miguel Rojas right behind him and the other three names in the top four combined for just 25 home runs to his 30. Arenado's combination of power and elite ability to put the ball in play was not matched this year, and that's all just in the bat. We all know that he is also one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, sucking up everything that comes his way at the hot corner and turning surefire infield singles or down the line extra base hits into outs at first base. Per Statcast, his 15 outs above average were second among all NL third basemen behind only Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes, if you want confirmation. Take that bat in a down year for offense combined with the elite glove, and you can make a pretty strong case that no National League player was better than Nolan Arenado in 2022.

Runner-up: 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 32 HR, .298/.366/.531, 9 SB, 152 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 150 games
One man did have a nearly identical season to Arenado, and that's Manny Machado. Like Arenado, Machado is an elite defensive third baseman that provides significant value with his glove. His eight outs above average at the hot corner were fourth in the NL, but because Arenado nearly doubled him in that category, he gets the edge despite nearly identical offensive stats (his 11.6% strikeout rate to Manny's 20.7% also helps). Mchado actually beat Arenado by five points in batting average and eight points in on-base percentage while falling two points short in slugging percentage, which gave him a one point advantage in the all-encompassing stats of wOBA (.382) and wRC+. It also meant that Manny led the NL in fWAR while finishing third in wRC+, third in wOBA,third in OPS, fourth in batting average, fourth in slugging percentage, and fifth in total bases (307). Overall, it was one of the best all-around seasons in the NL, but his excellent defense vs Arenado's elite defense and his higher strikeout rate contributed to him falling just short in my book.

Honorable mention: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 35 HR, .317/.404/.578, 7 SB, 177 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 151 games
Paul Goldschmidt was the single best hitter in the National League this year, and I don't think there are any two ways around it. He led the league in wRC+, wOBA (.419), slugging percentage, and OPS, all by a very healthy margin, and finished second in total bases (324), second in on-base percentage, third in hits (178), third in batting average, fourth in extra base hits (76), and fifth in home runs. He was so good, in fact, that I very nearly put him ahead of defensive whizzes Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado, though his being limited to first base does hurt his value just a little. Goldschmidt did look like the favorite for much of the season and was slashing .338/.423/.633 on August 27th, but his bat quieted a bit towards the finish line and he hit just .229/.325/.349 over his final 31 games, allowing Arenado and Machado to overtake him.

Others
1B Freddie Freeman (Dodgers): 21 HR, .325/.407/.511, 13 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 159 games
RHP Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
OF Mookie Betts (Dodgers): 35 HR, .269/.340/.533, 12 SB, 144 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 142 games
C J.T. Realmuto (Phillies): 22 HR, .276/.342/.478, 21 SB, 128 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 139 games
2B Jeff McNeil (Mets): 9 HR, .326/.382/.454, 4 SB, 143 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 148 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Stat line: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
Justin Verlander may have thrown just the sixteenth most innings in the American League this year, behind names like Jordan Lyles and Nick Pivetta, but those 175 innings were some of the most dominant we have seen in some time. In fact, only two live ball era pitchers have EVER had a lower ERA and a lower WHIP while throwing that many innings in a season: Greg Maddux in 1995 (1.63 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 209.2 IP) and Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 217 IP). That's it, that's the list. For my money, that is plenty enough to award him the AL Cy Young Award. He may not be striking out as many batters as he used to, with his 27.8% rate (sixth best in the AL) actually by far his lowest mark with the Astros, but pinpoint command meant he walked just 4.4% of his opponents, third best in the league. He was untouchable from start to finish this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 26 of his 28 starts and allowing one or zero earned runs in 20 of 28. He also never walked more than three batters in a start, walked more than two just twice, and walked one or zero in 21 of 28 starts. His worst ERA in any month was 2.27, while his worst WHIP was 1.01. That ERA would have finished fourth in the AL and that WHIP would have finished sixth. Just unbelievable stuff from the 39 year old future first ballot Hall of Famer.

Runner-up: RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Stat line: 14-8, 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, 227/78 K/BB in 184 innings
So Dylan Cease led the entire American League with 78 walks and a 10.4% walk rate, which isn't ideal, but he actually did almost everything else well. He finished second in ERA, second in strikeouts, second in opponents' batting average (.190), third in games started, and third in strikeout rate (30.4%), and he did all of that despite playing in front of one of the worst defenses in the AL that did him no favors. So he walked a lot of guys, but he stranded most of them on base and did pretty much everything else as well as you could. And even though he was a bit wild, he only hit three batters, the fifth fewest among the 22 qualified starters in the AL. It's a low ERA, high strikeout, large sample season that is comfortably behind Justin Verlander's but in my opinion just a touch better than everyone else in the league. To this point in his career, he has now dropped his ERA and WHIP in each of his four major league seasons.

Honorable mention: RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
We already talked about Shohei Ohtani's pitching in the AL MVP section, and in my opinion he had the third best season of any AL pitcher this year, bat notwithstanding. Not only did he blast 34 home runs with a .356 on-base percentage as a hitter, but he was a legitimate ace and the best pitcher on the west coast. He led the American League in strikeout rate (33.2%), finished second in FIP, third in strikeouts, fourth in ERA, and fifth in WHIP, and additionally only allowed two unearned runs so he didn't allow errors to hurt him. He had ten different double digit strikeout games, kept the ball in the ballpark with just 14 home runs allowed (fourth fewest among qualified AL starters), and pitched like an ace nearly every time he went out there.

Others
RHP Shane Bieber (Guardians): 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.87 FIP, 198/36 K/BB in 200 innings
RHP Alek Manoah (Blue Jays): 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 180/51 K/BB in 196.2 innings
LHP Shane McClanahan (Rays): 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.00 FIP, 194/38 K/BB in 166.1 innings
RHP Emmanuel Clase (Guardians): 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
LHP Nestor Cortes (Yankees): 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.13 FIP, 163/38 K/BB in 158.1 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Stat line: 14-9, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
Sometimes, old fashioned is better. Sandy Alcantara led all of Major League Baseball in innings pitched by 23.2 over second place Aaron Nola, with his 228.2 representing the highest total for any pitcher since David Price threw 230 innings for the 2016 Red Sox. Additionally, his six complete games (five of the nine inning variety) doubled second place Framber Valdez's total of three this year, and again represented the highest total since Chris Sale's six for the 2016 White Sox. Alcantara's shortest start this year was 4.2 innings, and he completed seven innings in 22 of his 32 starts. But you don't get the Cy Young Award just for throwing a bunch of innings, and Alcantara pitched like an ace throughout. Not only was he on the mound far more than anybody else this season, he also finished second in the NL in ERA, fourth in strikeouts, fifth in FIP, and sixth in WHIP. That kind of dominance over such a large sample is just too easy a choice for this award.

Runner-up: RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 235/29 K/BB in 205 innings
Aaron Nola's 3.25 ERA may have been just the thirteenth best in the National League, but it was an otherwise exceptional season. Pitching in front of an poor Phillies defense that finished 29th out of 30 teams in terms of outs above average and in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, his 2.58 FIP (second in the NL) and 2.74 xERA (per Statcast) point to significant bad luck, mostly owing to that bad defense behind him. And yet he still threw the most innings in MLB by pitchers not named Alcantara, led all NL pitchers in fWAR (6.3) and walk rate (3.6%), and finished third in strikeouts, third in games started, and fourth in WHIP. It was about as well as you could expect anybody to pitch on their own, and if you swapped any other pitcher into his circumstances, I'm not sure you would have seen better numbers from anybody.

Honorable mention: RHP Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants
Stat line: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.25 FIP, 237/52 K/BB in 178 innings
Carlos Rodon found himself in a similar position to Aaron Nola, pitching in front of the third worst defense in the majors in San Francisco. In fact, if you take his defense out of it, his 2.25 FIP led all of Major League Baseball, so he controlled the three true outcomes better than anybody. In addition to leading the league in FIP, he also led the NL in strikeout rate (33.4%) and finished second in strikeouts (237), second in fWAR (6.2), sixth in ERA, and ninth in WHIP. He had eleven double digit strikeout games and was overall just a bat missing machine, which is exactly what the Giants needed given their relative inability to field the baseball.

Others
LHP Max Fried (Braves): 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.70 FIP, 170/32 K/BB in 185.1 innings
RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers): 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.14 FIP, 243/51 K/BB in 202 innings
RHP Edwin Diaz (Mets): 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
RHP Spencer Strider (Braves): 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 13 HR, .254/.362/.445, 4 SB, 133 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 113 games
Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez are so neck and neck, with fWAR assigning them both the same value at 5.3 and bWAR giving Rodriguez a 6.0 to 5.2 edge. You really can't go wrong with either here, and I'm only choosing Rutschman because you can't have two rookies of the year. Rutschman played 19 fewer games than Rodriguez and fell 13 points behind in wRC+, but he was also one of the better defensive catchers in baseball. The Orioles as a team had a 3.97 ERA this year, but that was down to 3.79 with Rutschman behind the plate versus 4.39 with Robinson Chirinos. He didn't only help the pitching staff, he helped the whole team. The Orioles were 16-24 (.400 WPCT) when he got called up, then went 67-55 (.549 WPCT) from there on out. To come in and immediately improve not only a pitching staff, but a team like that is even more impressive as a 24 year old rookie, and his presence is looking to kickstart an era that could bring the best Orioles teams since the Jim Palmer/Eddie Murray golden era of the 1970's and early 1980's. Rutschman isn't just notable for his glove, though, as his 133 wRC+ shows he brings a serious bat as well. His .362 on-base percentage would have been fourteenth best in the American League and his 13.8% walk rate sixth best if he had enough at bats to qualify, while his 35 doubles clocked in at thirteenth. Obviously those numbers won't blow you away, but again, this is a 24 year old rookie whose glove and clubhouse presence have already helped transform a team.

Runner-up: OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 28 HR, .284/.345/.509, 25 SB, 146 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 132 games
Like I mentioned, Julio Rodriguez is equally deserving of the Rookie of the Year Award, and Adley Rutschman only beat him by a hair. Rodriguez's season was very different than Rutschman's, but just as impressive. He played in 19 more games, hit 15 more home runs, and posted a wRC+ 13 points higher, just about making up for Rutschman's prowess behind the plate. And don't forget about Rodriguez's glove, because even though center field might not be quite as important as catcher, his seven outs above average came in thirteenth among American League outfielders. In what was a down year for hitters, his 146 wRC+ was the fifth best in the entire AL, behind only Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yandy Diaz (yep, Yandy Diaz quietly finished at 146). His 5.3 overall fWAR finished ninth in the league, just edging Rutschman. Rodriguez played the entire season at just 21 years old, in a very pitcher-friendly home stadium, and early in the season was the recipient of some of the worst called strike luck in recent memory, but you would't know that from his final numbers that included a 25-25 season. And we can't forget the show he put on at the Home Run Derby, either. He'll likely be worth every penny of that mega contract he signed with Seattle.

Honorable mention: OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 6 HR, .298/.373/.400, 19 SB, 124 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 147 games
It's a two horse race for the AL Rookie of the Year this year, but let's not forget about Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan. An elite contact bat, he was one of just five qualified American League hitters to draw more walks than strikeouts, and his 9.4% strikeout rate was the second lowest in the league behind only Luis Arraez. His .373 on-base percentage was also ninth best in the league, so overall Kwan was just relentless about putting the ball in play and getting on base. The power wasn't quite there, but he did add significant value on defense with eight outs above average, good for eighth among AL outfielders. He fits in perfectly with Cleveland's contact-first style of play, and his big rookie season deserves recognition in the shadows of Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez.

Others
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings
RHP George Kirby, Mariners: 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 133/22 K/BB in 130 innings
RHP Joe Ryan, Twins: 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 151/47 K/BB in 147 innings
SS Jeremy Peña, Astros: 22 HR, .253/.289/.426, 11 SB, 102 wRC+ in 136 games
LHP Brock Burke, Rangers: 1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 90/24 K/BB in 82.1 innings

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 11-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
The NL Rookie of the Year Award will come down to two Braves, and I think Spencer Strider gets the edge. He accrued the fifth most fWAR (4.9) of any National League pitcher this year, rookie or not, enough to earn the #6 spot on my NL Cy Young ballot. Though he only threw 131.2 innings, he was one of just six NL pitchers to record 200 strikeouts this year while his 38.3% strikeout rate and 1.83 FIP led the NL (min. 130 innings) by a huge margin ahead of second place Carlos Rodon's 33.4% and 2.25, respectively. He actually began the year in the Atlanta bullpen and made eleven relief appearances with a 2.22 ERA and a 37/11 strikeout to walk ratio in April and May, but jumped to the rotation at the end of the month and never looked back. He recorded his first double digit strikeout game in his third start and pitched the game of the year on September 1st, when he allowed jut two hits and no walks over eight shutout innings against the Rockies, striking out 16 along the way. Now Strider did walk 8.5% of his opponents, the ninth highest mark in the NL among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings, but if he can get that down, the league could have its next true ace.

Runner-up: OF Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 19 HR, .297/.339/.514, 20 SB, 136 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR in 114 games
Like Spencer Strider, Michael Harris didn't play enough to qualify for rate-based stats, but he was so great once he did come up in late May that he deserves a good long look for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. I gave it to Strider because I see him fitting much better into the down ballot Cy Young discussion than Harris fits in the down ballot MVP discussion, but it is fairly close. Harris came one home run short of a 20-20 season despite missing a third of the season, and his .514 slugging percentage topped Julio Rodriguez for the best among MLB rookies (min. 100 games played) while his .297 batting average fell just behind Steven Kwan's .298 and his .853 OPS fell just behind Rodriguez's .854. He was also a very strong defender whose seven outs above average were enough to finish fourth among all NL outfielders. It's a pretty similar season overall to Rodriguez (in 18 fewer games), who got much more media attention.

Honorable mention: LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 4-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 131/39 K/BB in 103.1 innings
It was a forgettable season in Cincinnati, but four rookie pitchers had seasons to remember. Nick Lodolo was perhaps the best among them and earns the third spot on my NL Rookie of the Year ballot, but Hunter Greene was right there behind him while Alexis Diaz was the best rookie reliever in the NL and Braxton Ashcraft made it to one hundred innings as well. Lodolo earns this spot despite throwing 22.1 fewer innings than Greene over five fewer starts because when he was on the mound, he was better. His 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.25 FIP all compare very favorably to league averages, as the 24 year old gave the Reds 103.1 very effective innings in the rotation right off the bat. He got better as the season went along, too, and figures to stick around near the top of that Reds rotation for a very long time.

Others
RHP Hunter Greene (Reds): 4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, 164/48 K/BB in 125.2 innings
RHP Alexis Diaz (Reds): 1.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, 83/33 K/BB in 63.2 innings
2B Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): 5 HR, .281/.394/.379, 2 SB, 129 wRC+ in 126 games
1B Joey Meneses (Nationals): 13 HR, .324/.367/.563, 1 SB, 156 wRC+ in 56 games
OF Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): 14 HR, .262/.336/.433, 9 SB, 116 wRC+ in 111 games

American League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
If you want to talk untouchable, then Emmanuel Clase is a great place to start. Opponents hit a paltry .167/.200/.225 against him as virtually nobody could barrel his triple digit cutter from start of the season to finish. His 28.4% strikeout rate was strong but not elite, but when hitters did make contact, it was weak contact galore as they wound up with a barrage of weak ground balls. He didn't walk anybody, either with just a 3.7% walk rate, so you really just had to get lucky to reach base. In fact, his longest stretch of consecutive appearances allowing a baserunner was just three appearances. In other words, he never went four games without posting at least one perfect appearance.

Others
RHP Jason Adam (Rays): 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 2.86 FIP, 75/17 K/BB in 63.1 innings
RHP Andres Muñoz (Mariners): 2.49 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.04 FIP, 96/15 K/BB in 65 innings
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings

National League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Stat line: 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
There were some great relievers in the National League this year, dare I say a deeper group than in the American League, but Edwin Diaz ultimately made this an easy choice. The man ran a 1.31 ERA as he allowed just nine runs in 62 innings, but even more impressive was a 0.90 FIP that represents the fourth lowest mark of all time (min. 50 innings) behind only 2012 Craig Kimbrel (0.78), 2003 Eric Gagne (0.86), and 2014 Aroldis Chapman (0.89). He was certainly helped by striking out 118 of the 235 batters he faced, good for a 50.2% strikeout rate that made him the third pitcher ever to strike out more than half the hitters he faced (min. 50 innings) after 2014 Chapman (52.5%) and 2012 Kimbrel (50.2%). Yeah, that'll play.

Others
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings
RHP Evan Phillips (Dodgers): 1.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 1.94 FIP, 77/15 K/BB in 63 innings
RHP Devin Williams (Brewers): 1.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.01 FIP, 96/30 K/BB in 60.2 innings

Friday, November 2, 2018

Top Free Agents for 2018-2019: Infielders

First Basemen

1. Matt Adams (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 21 HR, .239/.309/.477, 0 SB, 107 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 121 games
This is a very shallow first base class, with really no true starters available. There are, however, quite a few platoon bats, with Matt Adams leading the way. Though 2014 was his only full season as a starter, he has been a very valuable power bat as a platoon or bench option since then. In 2017, he slashed .274/.319/.522 with 20 home runs in 131 games, including .295/.342/.554 against right handed pitchers. In 2018, a late season slump with the Cardinals brought him down to .239/.309/.477 with 21 home runs overall, including .242/.316/.494 against right handers, but he is still a very potent option at the plate against that right handed pitching. He doesn't provide much defensive value, but I did watch him make some nice plays at first base and in left field for the Nationals. Also, because he just turned 30 at the end of August, he's not old as far as free agents go. For his career, the Central Pennsylvania native has 96 home runs, a .266/.314/.470 slash line, and 5.4 fWAR over 707 games since 2012.

2. Steve Pearce (2019 Age: 36)
2018 Stats: 11 HR, .284/.378/.512, 0 SB, 140 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 76 games
It's hard to know what to make of Pearce. He has up years and down years completely unpredictably, with the case in point being his drop from a breakout .293/.373/.556 line in 2014 to .218/.289/.422 in 2015. Though he played in only 76 games, this past year was an up year, as he slashed .284/.378/.512 with 11 home runs, good for a 140 wRC+, and his playoff heroics led to the World Series MVP Award. Fangraphs does not like his defense, but he has shown a knack for stretching for bad throws this year, so that's up to the teams to decide, but they'll all be buying his bat. He routinely hits left handed pitching better than right handed pitching, though he's not a true platoon bat because he is still serviceable against right handers. This past year, the line was .304/.400/.559 against left handers and .265/.359/.469 against righties, and you can see that the former is an All Star line while the latter is still worth having in your lineup. Of course, with all of his inconsistency, we don't know which Steve Pearce will show up in 2019. On the down side, he turns 36 in April, so there are definitely younger options. For his career, the former South Carolina Gamecock has 90 home runs, a .257/.336/.447 slash line, and 8.7 fWAR over 737 games since 2007.

3. Lucas Duda (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 14 HR, .241/.313/.418, 1 SB, 97 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR in 107 games
Lucas Duda is not coming off a great season, as he lives by his bat and he slashed just .241/.313/.418 with 14 home runs in 107 games. That's a moderately productive bat, but you have to expect more from someone who provides little value on defense. The good news is that he looked better last year, when he slashed .217/.322/.496 with 30 home runs in 127 games, his 12.2% walk rate helping mitigate his low batting average. Like Adams and Pearce, he has a platoon split, hitting much better against right handed pitching (.264/.336/.477 in 2018) than against left handers (.180/.255/.258). He either fits as a platoon bat on a team with enough depth to offset it or on a non-contending team that can live with his struggles against left handed pitching. For his career, the former USC Trojan has 152 home runs, a .242/.337/.452 line, and 8.1 fWAR over 919 games since 2010.

Other Notable
Logan Morrison (15 HR, .186/.276/.368, 1 SB, 74 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR)
Mark Reynolds (13 HR, .248/.328/.476, 0 SB, 112 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR)
Hanley Ramirez (6 HR, .254/.313/.395, 4 SB, 89 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR)

Second Basemen

1. Brian Dozier (2019 Age: 31-32)
2018 Stats: 21 HR, .215/.305/.391, 12 SB, 90 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 151 games
Dozier had the worst year of his career at the worst possible time, which puts him in a bad position but which could also give a lucky team a bargain. Dozier accumulated 11.2 fWAR from 2016-2017 while hitting 76 home runs, the former of which was second among second basemen only to Jose Altuve's 14.4 fWAR and the latter of which led all second basemen. However, his slash line dropped to .215/.305/.391 this year just a year after it had sat at .271/.359/.498 for 2017. Interestingly, his strikeout and walk rates remained fairly in line, and his 37.3% hard hit rate was the highest of his career. The problem lied in how he hit the ball; to summarize a bunch of Fangraphs and Baseball Savant data, he wasn't squaring the ball up as much, rather getting under or on top of it too much. Since he was still hitting the ball hard, it likely will only take some minor adjustments to get him back on track. Fortunately, even in his down year, he maintained a very solid 11.1% walk rate. If he rebounds, he's a near-All Star caliber second baseman, though he's more of a backup if he doesn't. It's a risky signing, but one that could pay off. For his career, Dozier has 172 home runs, a .246/.324/.444 slash line, and 22.1 fWAR over 1002 games since 2012.

2. Jed Lowrie (2019 Age: 35)
2018 Stats: 23 HR, .267/.353/.448, 0 SB, 122 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR in 157 games
Lowrie has been one of the game's more underrated players, accumulating the second most fWAR (8.5) among all second basemen over the last two seasons, trailing only Jose Altuve's 12.5. His recent offensive resurgence led to two nearly identical seasons over the last two years, as he slashed .277/.360/.448 in 2017 and .267/.353/.448 in 2018. His 40.1% hard hit rate this year was his best since his 40.4% rate in 2010, when he slashed .287/.381/.526 in 55 games for the Red Sox, and it easily tops his full season career high of 34.5%, set just back in 2017. His combination of on-base ability, moderate power, and good defense, in addition to veteran leadership, make him a valuable starting second baseman even at this stage of his career (he turns 35 at the start of the 2019 season). For his career, the Stanford alum has 104 home runs, a .262/.335/.414 slash line, and 20.0 fWAR over 1109 games since 2008.

3. Daniel Murphy (2019 Age: 34)
2018 Stats: 12 HR, .299/.336/.454, 3 SB, 110 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 91 games
Murphy is an older option, so a long term deal likely won't be the way to go, but he likely has at least two more solid offensive seasons left in him where he could be a real contributor to a lineup. His defense is shaky and probably isn't going to get any better, so the value is tied to the bat. Even with the downward slope of his career, he likely provides average on-base ability and at least average power for the foreseeable future, meaning he could even fit on some contending teams. Upon signing Murphy, teams also get a bonus hitting coach, as he has been credited by many Nationals players for helping them with their swing mechanics, getting the ball off the ground and into the air. For his career, the Jacksonville native and Jacksonville University alum has 122 home runs, a .299/.344/.458 slash line, and 24.6 fWAR over 1280 games since 2008.

Other Notable
DJ LeMahieu (15 HR, .276/.321/.428, 6 SB, 86 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR)
Asdrubal Cabrera (23 HR, .262/.316/.458, 0 SB, 111 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR)
Ian Kinsler (14 HR, .240/.301/.380, 16 SB, 87 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR)
Daniel Descalso (13 HR, .238/.353/.436, 0 SB, 111 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR)
Josh Harrison (8 HR, .250/.293/.363, 3 SB, 78 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR)
Marwin Gonzalez (listed as OF)

Shortstops

1. Manny Machado (2019 Age: 26-27)
2018 Stats: 37 HR, .297/.367/.538, 14 SB, 140 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR in 162 games
Easily the top shortstop available, Machado might be able to challenge Bryce Harper as the best player available overall. It's not often that a team can buy a potential franchise cornerstone, a new face of the franchise, on the open market. How do you price that out? $300 million, more? That's for the teams to figure out. Machado is coming off his third six win season in the past four years, slashing .297/.367/.538 with 37 home runs and 6.2 fWAR while appearing in all 162 games, albeit for two different teams. This past season was his best offensively, with his .377 wOBA and 140 wRC+ both setting career highs, and the ability to play a pretty good shortstop makes him even more of a franchise player. He has posted four straight seasons of at least 33 home runs, 30 doubles, and 156 games played, his 21.7 fWAR over that frame trailing only Francisco Lindor's 22.8 among players who are now shortstops (Machado was a third basemen for the first three years of that span). In fact, the 21.7 fWAR are ninth in all of baseball among position players in that time frame. Throw in that he doesn't turn 27 until July, and you've got a guy set for a ten or more year deal. For his career, the Miami native has 175 home runs, a .282/.335/.487 slash line, and 30.2 fWAR over 926 games since 2012.

2. Freddy Galvis (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 13 HR, .248/.299/.380, 8 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 162 games
There's a big drop from the top shortstop available to the second best, but Freddy Galvis is still a good starting option for a non-contending team or a back-up option for a contender. He's not much with the bat, performing consistently below average, though he does have a bit of a power stroke and he has knocked 49, 47, and 49 extra base hits over the last three seasons. While he struggles to get on base (career high in OBP is .309), the moderate power is nice to have, and his generally solid defense at shortstop makes him overall a useful package. On top of that, his active streak of 325 consecutive games played is the longest in the majors, making him one of the more durable players in the game. As a bonus, he's also one of the younger free agents available. For his career, the Venezuela native has 65 home runs, a .246/.290/.374 slash line, and 7.2 fWAR over 804 games since 2012.

3. Jose Iglesias (2019 Age: 29)
2018 Stats: 5 HR, .269/.310/.389, 15 SB, 90 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 125 games
After he was anointed the Red Sox' "shortstop of the future" at the beginning of the decade, the baseball world kind of stopped paying attention to Jose Iglesias when he was traded to Detroit. He has actually been fairly good, not an All Star but good enough to warrant some notice on the free agent market. In fact, he has been worth at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past five seasons he played in (he missed the 2014 season with shin issues), mostly due to very good defense. The defense is his calling card, as his bat has been above average just once in his career: wRC+ of 102 in 2013. However, he does hold his own at the plate, knocking 64 doubles over the past two seasons. While he probably wouldn't be a good option for contending teams, he should be able to start on teams with shallower rosters, and because he'll play the entire 2019 season at 29 years old, he's one of the younger free agents available. For his career, the Cuba native has 21 home runs, a .270/.315/.363 slash line, and 10.0 fWAR over 656 games since 2011.

Other Notable
Jordy Mercer (6 HR, .251/.315/.381, 2 SB, 85 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)
Adeiny Hechavarria (6 HR, .247/.279/.345, 2 SB, 67 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR)
Alcides Escobar (4 HR, .231/.279/.313, 8 SB, 60 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR)
Eric Sogard (0 HR, .134/.241/.165, 3 SB, 14 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR)
Andrew Romine (0 HR, .210/.260/.244  43 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR)
Jed Lowrie, Asdrubal Cabrera (both listed as 2B)

Third Basemen

1. Josh Donaldson (2019 Age: 33)
2018 Stats: 8 HR, .246/.352/.449, 2 SB, 117 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR in 52 games
This down year came at the worst time for Donaldson, who from 2013-2017 put up five straight seasons with more than 5.0 fWAR. His 34.3 total fWAR in that span placed him second in all of baseball behind only the great Mike Trout's 44.2, and third place Paul Goldschmidt's 27.7 were far behind both. In that stretch, he was one of the game's premier hitters and racked up an incredible 16.2 fWAR between just 2015 and 2016 alone, again only behind Mike Trout's 18.9. Donaldson hit for power, got on base, and played third base all at elite levels, making him one of the game's premier stars. However, he was dogged by calf injuries in 2018 and played just 52 games with a mediocre (by his standards) .246/.352/.449 slash line. To throw in a however to the first however, Donaldson's performance also improved as he got farther and farther from the calf injury, shown in improving quality of contact as well as plate discipline. I don't think he's a safe bet to get back to his MVP caliber 2015-2016 form, but I would be comfortable expecting him to return to 2017 form (33 HR, .270/.385/.559) at least for the near future. Turning 33 over the offseason, he's not young, but he's also not too old yet. He's not as safe a bet as Machado to be a franchise cornerstone, but his bat - and glove - are still very valuable and should net him a large contract. For his career, the Auburn alum has 182 home runs, a .275/.367/.507 slash line, and 36.5 fWAR over 883 games since 2010.

2. Mike Moustakas (2019 Age: 30)
2018 Stats: 28 HR, .251/.315/.459, 4 SB, 105 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR in 152 games
Moustakas is a power bat that is a pretty safe bet for 20-30 home runs. I doubt he hits 38 again like he did in 2017, but it's still a profile that fits on most contending teams. He plays good defense at third base and while his on-base percentages aren't the greatest, he gets on enough given his power. He's also a good player to have in the clubhouse, and overall I'd call him a good all around player, one that's not a star but who can contribute from a supporting role. For his career, the Los Angeles native has 147 home runs, a .251/.307/.431 slash line, and 13.2 fWAR in 988 games since 2011.

3. Adrian Beltre (2019 Age: 40)
2018 Stats: 15 HR, .273/.328/.434, 1 SB, 99 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 119 games
It's not known whether Beltre will return for a 22nd major league season in 2019, but if he does, my guess is he'll either return to the Rangers or sign with a contender that will give him a chance to win a World Series, which he has not done yet. Amazingly, even as Beltre is set to turn 40 at the start of next season, he's still a good player that puts out essentially league-average production on both sides of the ball. He's a great clubhouse guy to have and he's probably one of the most fan-friendly pick-ups a team could possibly make, and because he's just 23 home runs shy of 500, all it would take would be an unlikely but not unrealistic power surge to get there. For his career, the Dominican future Hall of Famer has 477 home runs, a .286/.339/.480 slash line, and 84.0 fWAR over 2933 games since 1998.

Other Notable
Jung Ho Kang (0 HR, .333/.333/.333, 0 SB, 83 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR)
Luis Valbuena (9 HR, .199/.253/.335, 3 SB, 59 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR)
Chase Headley (0 HR, .115/.233/.135, 0 SB, 13 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Ryan Flaherty (2 HR, .217/.298/.292, 4 SB, 57 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR)
Manny Machado (listed as SS), Marwin Gonzalez (listed as OF), Asdrubal Cabrera (listed as 2B)

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Dodgers Land Manny Machado

Dodgers get: SS Manny Machado (24 HR, .315/.387/.575, 8 SB, 156 wRC+, Age 26)
Orioles get: 2B Breyvic Valera (0 HR, .172/.273/.172, 0 SB, 34 wRC+, Age 26)
OF Yusniel Diaz (6 HR, .314/.428/.477, 8 SB, 147 wRC+ at AA, Age 21)
RHP Dean Kremer (6-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 125/29 K/BB at High A and AA, Age 22)
3B Rylan Bannon (20 HR, .296/.402/.559, 4 SB, 159 wRC+ at High A, Age 22)
RHP Zach Pop (1-2, 1.04 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 47/13 K/BB at Class A and High A, Age 21)

The Orioles are an absolute joke this season at 28-69 heading into the All Star Break, a full 39.5 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The one bright spot, and I mean the one, lone, single bright spot has been Manny Machado, who has been playing like the perennial All Star he always has been but who also is a free agent after the season. When you're 39.5 games back in your division and 30 games back of the second wild card spot, the season is over, and you might as well get some value out of Machado while you can. Meanwhile, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager went down with an elbow injury at the end of April and he won't play again this year. Given LA's prospect depth, that makes them the perfect landing spot for a rental infielder like Machado, who will reportedly see time at both shortstop and third base for the remainder of the season. Through 96 games with the O's this year, he's slashing .315/.387/.575 with 24 home runs, good for a 156 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR. That is a game changing stat line regardless of defensive value, and when you can play a terrific third base and a very decent shortstop to go along with it, that's team-changing. The one knock on Machado has been his very sharp home/road split; playing 48 games apiece, he is slashing .360/.448/.691 with 17 home runs at home and .274/.329/.468 with seven home runs on the road. His strikeout to walk ratios are also drastically different: 21/28 at home and 30/17 on the road. His plate discipline has always been at least somewhat better at home, so maybe he just like's the batters' eye? My guess is most of it is dumb luck and the random nature of statistics in small(ish) sample sizes. While Camden Yards is definitely a hitters' park, its effects aren't that drastic. He'll continue to hit great out west, but maybe his wOBA drops by .010 or .020 or so.

Meanwhile, the Orioles got an array of prospects, but none are more valuable than 21 year old outfielder Yusniel Diaz, around whom the deal is centered. Diaz is a Cuban signee in his third pro season, and he's playing his best baseball by slashing .314/.428/.477 with six home runs and a 39/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games at AA Tulsa. Diaz will never get up into that 20-30 home run range, even in Baltimore, but he's a great athlete that should hit around 15-20 home runs per season in Camden while also getting on base and playing good defense. He shows great plate discipline and sprays line drives around the park, and though his base running could use some work (he has been caught stealing 30 times in 54 attempts in the minor leagues), he's fast. On defense, he could be above average at the outfield corners or hold his own in center field, and he has the upside of a starting outfielder who could get on base at a clip near .400 with that moderate power and good defense. Breyvic Valera is the only one of the quintet to have played in the majors, appearing in five games for the Cardinals in 2017 and 20 more for the Dodgers this year. He hasn't been great in either trial, slashing .154/.250/.154 with no extra base hits for his career, but he's an established minor league bat that should be able to stick as a utility infielder once he translates his success to the majors. In 56 games at AAA Oklahoma City this year, he's hitting a much better .284/.350/.433 with six home runs and a nice 20/21 strikeout to walk ratio. He's already 26, but he should be able to help out off the bench. Right handed pitcher Dean Kremer has taken very well to his transition to full-time starting. In 16 starts with High A Rancho Cucamonga in the very hitter-friendly California League, he went 5-3 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP,  striking out 114 and walking 26 in 79 innings. Those are fantastic numbers for that league. Upon being promoted to AA Tulsa, he dominated Midland (A's AA) in his first start, tossing seven shutout innings on three hits, three walks, and eleven strikeouts. He was somewhat buried in a deep Dodgers farm system, but in a much more shallow Baltimore system, he has a chance to push his way to the majors as a starting pitcher. You may remember him from the World Baseball Classic, where the Israeli citizen pitched for Team Israel during its improbable run. Third baseman Rylan Bannon has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the eighth round out of Xavier in 2017, slashing .336/.425/.591 in the rookie-level Pioneer League last year before skipping straight to High A Rancho Cucamonga this year. Through 89 games, he is slashing .296/.402/.559 with 20 home runs and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, great numbers even when you account for the boost he's getting from the Cal League. Those numbers are a little inflated and he probably ends up an average hitter at the major league level, though his 14.6% walk rate will really help him maintain value as a guy who can get on base. If he cuts down his strikeouts, he has an outside shot at starting in the Orioles infield down the road. Right hander Zach Pop is a relief prospect that has been exceptional since the Dodgers "popped" him in the seventh round of the 2017 draft out of the University of Kentucky, ranking 135th on my pre-draft list. He was used exclusively as a reliever during his junior year of college, and he took a big step forward when the Dodgers cleaned up his command. Beginning at Class A Great Lakes, he posted a 2.20 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over eleven appearances, striking out 24 and walking seven in 16.1 innings. When he earned the promotion to High A Rancho Cucamonga in that hitter-friendly Cal League, he seemed to reach another gear, posting a 0.33 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He throws hard, hitting the upper 90's at times, and his slider ranges from loopy meatball to un-hittable. He projects as a middle relief type or set-up man. Overall, the package obviously centers on Diaz and whether he can successfully become an impact player in Baltimore, but there is a lot of depth behind him and at least one or two of the others will likely end up making an impact down the road.