1-24: RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS (PA)
CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State
2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech
3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS (CA)
4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis
5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida
The best farm system in baseball got even richer in this draft, grabbing two of the top high school pitchers in the country while still getting a diverse array of talent from the college ranks to save money. I'm a really big fan of this class, and honestly I'm not sure how you could not be, and they even managed to wreck a division rival's plans by plucking Nick Bitsko away from them. And they grabbed a hometown kid from Tampa with their last pick. All in all, with just six picks, they covered all the bases they needed to. Good work.
Full index of team profiles here
1-24: RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS, PA (my rank: 18)
This was one of the most interesting picks in the draft, and definitely in a good way. By some accounts the top high school arm in the class (and no worse than the #3 arm by any account), Bitsko was originally slated to be a member of the 2021 class, but reclassified to 2020 over the winter because he would have turned 19 in June 2021. This way, he'll only turn 18 right after draft day, making him relatively young for the class. Bitsko comes from the Philadelphia area and didn't get to pitch at all in game action this year, but he lit up the Rapsodo machines in bullpen work and scouts are confident he can pitch. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, showing very good spin rates that make it really jump on hitters. His curveball is another plus pitch, a high spin hammer with both depth and power. Lastly, he adds in a changeup, but it's behind the other two pitches and will need to be developed. He has a durable 6'4" frame and is a very good strike thrower for his age, and everything comes from a clean delivery, pointing to a very good chance to stick in the rotation. While all high school pitchers carry significant risk, Bitsko is on the safer side within the demographic and comes with ace upside. It looked like the Orioles were eying him with pick #30 after saving money on Heston Kjerstad at #2, but the Rays swooped in at #24. While slot value is $2.83 million, it will likely require significantly more than that to keep Bitsko from following through on his Virginia commitment. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-37: SS Alika Williams, Arizona State (my rank: 49)
This pick wasn't as exciting as the Bitsko pick, but it's definitely a value selection as a money saver that adds a solid player as well. He's a glove-first guy who is as natural a defender at shortstop as it gets, showing plus instincts and great coordination that enables him to get to pretty much anything hit to his side of second base. At the plate, he has shown a productive bat in college, but he doesn't have a ton of upside. He hit .333/.429/.474 with four home runs as a sophomore, but that dropped to .250/.359/.344 this year. He shows plus bat to ball abilities, striking out just 49 times in 129 career games at Arizona State, making consistent line drive contact to all fields. However, there isn't a ton of power present, and he doesn't project to add much, so he'll always be a contact hitter. That limits his ceiling, though with his plus defense at shortstop, getting on base just enough could lead to a starting job down the road. I see him more as a utility infielder than a true every day guy, especially with Wander Franco covering shortstop. If anybody is going to push Franco off shortstop, though, Williams would be the guy to do it. Slot value was $2 million, but Williams signed for $1.85 million, saving the Rays $150,000 towards Nick Bitsko. Pre-draft profile here.
2-57: LHP Ian Seymour, Virginia Tech (my rank: 71)
The highest draft selection from Virginia Tech since Joe Saunders went twelfth overall to the Angels in 2002, Seymour has been rising quickly over the past calendar year. He was more of a junkballer as an underclassman, but he went to the Cape over the summer and added power to his fastball, sitting in the low 90's and posting a 2.48 ERA and a sharp 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. He adds a plus changeup with exceptional fade in addition to an average slider, and everything plays up because the funk in his delivery enables him to hide the ball really well. That made him mildly successful early in his career, but now that he's touching 94 with that fastball, he's a legitimate starting pitching prospect. He was off to a really strong start in 2020, holding that velocity and putting up a 2.21 ERA and 40/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings, and he struck out 14 against Georgia Tech in his final start. There is some reliever risk due to his size (six foot even) and that funky delivery, but he's been trending up quickly enough that h e has a really good shot to stick in the rotation and the Rays certainly think so. With his solid command that enables him to tunnel his pitches off each other, in addition to how tough it can be to pick the ball up out of his hand, his stuff plays up significantly. I definitely like this pick for the Rays, especially if they end up saving money off of his $1.24 million slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-96: RHP Hunter Barnhart, St. Joseph HS, CA (my rank: 53)
This is another great pick for the Rays. In a lot of ways, Hunter Barnhart is kind of Nick Bitsko-lite. A standout quarterback at Paso Robles High School in California, he intrigued scouts with his pitchability and breaking ball but his upper 80's fastball was a little light. However, after transferring to St. Joseph High School down in Santa Maria, he came out this spring firing in the low 90's, and suddenly he's a much more interesting prospect. In addition to that low 90's fastball, he throws a big curveball with plus depth, and it should continue to function as an out pitch in pro ball. He doesn't have much of a changeup at this point, but instead, he fills up the strike zone extremely well and projects for plus command down the line. With a durable 6'2" frame, he brings a lot of starter's traits to the table, and comes with less risk than the typical high school arm. Aside from the ever-present injury risk, all he really needs to do is develop a changeup and keep hitting his spots like he does, and he has a floor of a back end starter if he does. He signed for $585,000, which was $19,800 below slot, giving the Rays fantastic value at the back of the top 100. Pre-draft profile here.
4-125: SS Tanner Murray, UC Davis (unranked)
Murray is an interesting pick for the Rays coming out of UC Davis, one of the better line drive hitters in college baseball. He's been as consistent as they come for three years with the Aggies, slashing .343/.394/.469 with three home runs and a 46/32 strikeout to walk ratio across 115 games, topping out with a .364 average in 2019. He employs a simple, line drive stroke that consistently peppers baseballs over the heads of infielders and into gaps, though he doesn't have much present over the fence power and doesn't really have the speed to profile for a ton of doubles and triples. He hit just .221/.278/.336 in 37 games on the Cape, furthering questions about how much impact he'll hit for, but the track record over at school is as consistent as they come. He's also steadily been hitting for more and more power throughout his college career, but it still ain't much. With a fairly projectable 6'2" frame, though, he could probably get close to average power if he and the Rays want to develop that way as a hitter. Murray can play pretty decent shortstop, but with the depth of middle infielders in the Rays system, he'll most likely be outplayed at that position by guys like Alika Williams and Wander Franco. The ultimate projection is probably a middle infielder here. Slot value is $455,600, though I imagine Murray might take a slight discount.
5-155: RHP Jeff Hakanson, Central Florida (unranked)
The I-4 corridor is absolutely brimming with talent, so it would be surprised if the Rays didn't end up with a hometown kid. Jeff Hakanson attended Jesuit High School in Tampa, then headed up I-4 to UCF for college. He's been an absolute strikeout machine for the Knights, striking out 26 in 14.2 innings as a freshman, 52 in 26.2 innings as a sophomore, and an incredible 20 in 8.1 innings as a junior. For those keeping track, that was 20 out of 28 batters he faced in 2020 and 98 strikeouts in 49.2 innings overall. His best pitch is easily his mid 90's fastball, a high spin pitch that is extremely difficult to square up coming from his long arm action. He has a solid slider as well that's an above average pitch, but with Hakanson, the fastball is the true weapon that nobody has been able to touch. The command is average and he'll probably need to sharpen that slider a little bit more going forward if he wants to be anything more than a middle reliever, but he should move pretty quickly and he has closer – or opener – upside down the road. He signed for $340,000, right at slot value.
Undrafted: The Rays are yet to sign any undrafted free agents.
Showing posts with label Nick Bitsko. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nick Bitsko. Show all posts
Saturday, June 20, 2020
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Nick Bitsko
RHP Nick Bitsko, Central Bucks East HS [PA]
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/16/2002. Commitment: Virginia
Nick Bitsko was originally a member of the 2021 draft class, though with an early birthday that made him older than the vast majority of high school juniors, he reclassified to a senior this year and is now relatively young for the class. Ironically, he was following another UVA recruit, Nate Savino, who was originally eligible for the 2020 draft but who instead went to campus in Charlottesville for the spring semester. That immediately puts Bitsko into the top tier of high school arms in the country, joining Jared Kelley and Mick Abel in the trio that has separated themselves from the pack. In the opinion of most scouts as well as my own, Kelley and Abel are probably a bit ahead of Bitsko, but they're also eight and ten months older than him, respectively, with a longer history in front of scouts.
Just by watching him pitch, you would have no idea that Bitsko reclassified and was supposed to be a junior. He sits in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that seems to jump on hitters, and that heat comes without a ton of effort, either. He also adds a true plus curve with both power and shape, which might the best breaking ball in the high school class. His third pitch is a changeup, which he doesn't use much yet but which rounds out his arsenal well and should only get better in time. He has advanced command for a high school pitcher that makes all of his pitches play up, and together it makes him look like a pro pitcher already.
Bitkso stands 6'4" and is already physically developed with a durable frame, giving him every chance to handle a starter's workload. Right now, he's nearly as good a pitcher as Kelley and better than Abel, though his upside is just a bit more limited because he is pretty much what he is. That also gives him a higher floor, as he's already brimming with starter's traits and knows who he is as a pitcher. Only Kelley can match his combination of power, stuff, and pitchability, and at just 17 years old, he has plenty of time to refine his ability and emerge a #2 or #3 starter. Draft-wise, signability was already going to be a question and the current situation compounds that further, but he is talented enough to go right in the middle of the first round and flirt with the top ten. Given the circumstances of being a cold weather arm who a) hadn't been seen as much over the summer because he was a member of the 2021 class at the time and b) didn't get much of a chance to throw outside in Philadelphia this spring before the season shut down, he'll probably go a bit lower if he is indeed signable. With a UVA commitment in hand, there is a really good chance he joins Savino in Charlottesville.
Game footage
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 6/16/2002. Commitment: Virginia
Nick Bitsko was originally a member of the 2021 draft class, though with an early birthday that made him older than the vast majority of high school juniors, he reclassified to a senior this year and is now relatively young for the class. Ironically, he was following another UVA recruit, Nate Savino, who was originally eligible for the 2020 draft but who instead went to campus in Charlottesville for the spring semester. That immediately puts Bitsko into the top tier of high school arms in the country, joining Jared Kelley and Mick Abel in the trio that has separated themselves from the pack. In the opinion of most scouts as well as my own, Kelley and Abel are probably a bit ahead of Bitsko, but they're also eight and ten months older than him, respectively, with a longer history in front of scouts.
Just by watching him pitch, you would have no idea that Bitsko reclassified and was supposed to be a junior. He sits in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that seems to jump on hitters, and that heat comes without a ton of effort, either. He also adds a true plus curve with both power and shape, which might the best breaking ball in the high school class. His third pitch is a changeup, which he doesn't use much yet but which rounds out his arsenal well and should only get better in time. He has advanced command for a high school pitcher that makes all of his pitches play up, and together it makes him look like a pro pitcher already.
Bitkso stands 6'4" and is already physically developed with a durable frame, giving him every chance to handle a starter's workload. Right now, he's nearly as good a pitcher as Kelley and better than Abel, though his upside is just a bit more limited because he is pretty much what he is. That also gives him a higher floor, as he's already brimming with starter's traits and knows who he is as a pitcher. Only Kelley can match his combination of power, stuff, and pitchability, and at just 17 years old, he has plenty of time to refine his ability and emerge a #2 or #3 starter. Draft-wise, signability was already going to be a question and the current situation compounds that further, but he is talented enough to go right in the middle of the first round and flirt with the top ten. Given the circumstances of being a cold weather arm who a) hadn't been seen as much over the summer because he was a member of the 2021 class at the time and b) didn't get much of a chance to throw outside in Philadelphia this spring before the season shut down, he'll probably go a bit lower if he is indeed signable. With a UVA commitment in hand, there is a really good chance he joins Savino in Charlottesville.
Game footage
Monday, February 10, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Ten Prospects Who Could Go #1
The college baseball season is set to start on February 14th, while various high school leagues start around the same time. That means one thing for MLB fans – it's time to start thinking about the draft. The Detroit Tigers have the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons, two years after they selected right hander Casey Mize out of Auburn. I'm not big into the guessing game of who teams like or whether they might go under slot, but that being said, here are ten players that have a shot at hearing their name called first overall.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
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