Showing posts with label Enrique Bradfield. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Enrique Bradfield. Show all posts

Thursday, August 24, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

The Orioles have gotten better and better at drafting, and this class doesn't disappoint. They only signed one catcher and one infielder, both on day three, instead focusing almost exclusively on outfield and pitching help. Speed is a major theme for the position players here, and of course nobody embodies it better than first round pick Enrique Bradfield. In fact, every outfielder drafted could be described as a plus or better runner. On the mound, the Orioles found athletes that moved well on the mound, looking for malleable clay they could take to the next level in their excellent player development system. Lastly, I'll note that the Orioles brought in some excellent baseball names with this class, my favorites being Tavian Josenberger, Teddy Sharkey, Kiefer Lord, Braxton Bragg, and Blake Money.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-17: OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $4.17 million. Signing bonus: $4.17 million.
My rank: #18. MLB Pipeline: #21. Baseball America: #16. Prospects Live: #16.
Sometimes, you really have to work to make a player profile interesting. Not this time. Enrique Bradfield is one of the most unique players in the class, with an old school brand of baseball that just might be primed for a comeback. A potential top 100 pick out of high school in South Florida, Bradfield priced himself out of the draft and instead headed to Vanderbilt, where he has only built his draft stock. He hit the ground running, literally, with a .336 batting average, a .451 on-base percentage, and 46 stolen bases as a true freshman in 2021, then went a perfect 46 for 46 in stolen bases in 2022. The numbers were down a touch in 2023, where he slashed .279/.410/.429 with six home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 40/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. If you've watched SEC baseball at all over the past three years, you know one thing about Bradfield – he can fly. Indeed, he probably provides more value on the basepaths than any player in all of college baseball, with blazing, top of the scale speed combined with excellent instincts that make him a generational baserunner, plain and simple. In three years at Vanderbilt, he stole 130 bases in 191 games and was caught just 13 times, despite the fact that opposing catchers knew he was running almost every time. Bradfield is no slouch at the plate, either. He's extremely patient with chase rates well below 20%, helping him draw a ton of walks and post a career .425 on-base percentage and a 14.6% walk rate against very strong competition. When he does swing, he rarely misses, with a line drive stroke geared towards all-fields contact that lets his wheels do their thing. He's the consummate leadoff hitter in every way. Built like a string bean at 6'1", his power is below average and will always be below average, though he can ambush you to the pull side and could flirt with double digit home run totals. It's not surprising that his defensive profile mirrors his offensive profile, with that elite speed playing up further due to strong reads and routes that could earn him Gold Gloves in the future. There's not much arm strength here, but his plus-plus range more than makes up for that and he'll provide plenty of value in center field. Overall, it's a very polished profile with a true outlier tool that could provide Baltimore with a leadoff hitter and basestealing threat for years to come. He's on his way there already, slashing .364/.563/.409 with 15 stolen bases and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio through fourteen games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

2-53: OF Mac Horvath, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $1.58 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($182,900 below slot value).
My rank: #58. MLB Pipeline: #82. Baseball America: #67. Prospects Live: #60.
Mac Horvath is a pretty interesting prospect in his own right that does a lot well. He was a solid prospect as a draft eligible sophomore in the 2022 draft, but returned to UNC and put up a huge junior season, slashing .305/.418/.711 with 24 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 61/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. Horvath provides a coveted combination of power and athleticism that is hard to find, especially outside the first round. He packs plenty of lean strength into his 6'1" frame, which he combines with an innate ability to lift the ball with authority to produce plus game power, in fact blasting 42 home runs in 123 games over the past two seasons and popping for seven in the elite Cape Cod League. Horvath is also a very disciplined hitter that, like Enrique Bradfield, rarely chases, helping him consistently find pitches he can drive. The pure bat to ball skills are more average here because he does have a power-over-hit approach, and he does get into trouble in some of those deeper counts with a strikeout rate north of 20%. There are also some concerns about his ability to catch up to premium velocity, though he did slash .250/.330/.490 on the Cape. The Minnesota native is also a plus runner and uses his athleticism well at third base with plenty of range, though he could use a little more refinement on the defensive side. He could end up in a corner outfield spot, and that's where the Orioles drafted him, where his speed and arm strength will play well. Horvath's ability to time up premium stuff in the zone will determine how far he goes in pro ball, but the ceiling here is that of a 25-30 home run hitter that draws plenty of walks, steals some bases, and plays a solid third base. That's a nice profile even if the batting averages may never be anything special. They're certainly special to this point in the minors, where he's slashing .346/.500/.692 with a pair of home runs and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBB-63: RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State {video}
Slot value: $1.24 million. Signing bonus: $1.61 million ($361,800 above slot value).
My rank: #50. MLB Pipeline: #167. Baseball America: #69. Prospects Live: #58.
As it turns out, the Orioles ended up giving Jackson Baumeister about $200,000 more than they gave Mac Horvath, signing him to just over the slot value for Horvath's draft position. Baumeister is a bit of a divisive prospect, but I'm fully on board with this pick and he actually has many similarities to current Orioles prospect Chayce McDermott. Baumeister was a premium prospect out of Jacksonville's Bolles School, alma mater of Chipper Jones, in 2021, but made it to campus at Florida State and was eligible as a sophomore this year. His 2023 numbers weren't the prettiest, with a 5.09 ERA and a 95/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, but they were pretty solid for the offense-friendly environment we found ourselves in this year. Baumeister sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 98, playing up with flat plane and hop that make it a plus pitch. Though he's still refining his breaking balls, he shows great feel to spin them, especially his above average curveball with power snap. He's working in his slider more as well and that should become at least an average, if not an above average pitch in the future. The changeup is also a work in progress and probably a fourth pitch at this point, as he can slow down his arm at times that lacks big tumble. The 6'4" righty has plenty of projection remaining and showcases his athleticism on the mound, with great extension and an explosive lower half that mean the sky could be the limit. The command isn't quite there yet as he's still learning to repeat that explosive delivery, and that does make for some relief risk. Personally, I'm bought in, and I think the Orioles have a great opportunity to take this excellent ball of clay and refine it into a mid-rotation arm. The fastball, feel for spin, and athleticism are there, so he really just needs refinement.

3-86: RHP Kiefer Lord, Washington {video}
Slot value: $808,200. Signing bonus: $760,000 ($48,200 below slot value).
My rank: #74. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #97. Prospects Live: #71.
Kiefer Lord presents another interesting ball of clay for the Orioles' player development system to play with. Originally a product of Carleton College in Minnesota, he transferred to Washington this past season and put up some gems early in the season, including against Northern Colorado (6 perfect innings, 10 K's) and Stanford (8 shutout innings, 3 baserunners, 10 K's). Those starts on the heels of a loud fall put him into top fifty pick consideration, but he slumped later in the season and put up an 18.22 ERA over his final four starts, boosting his season ERA to from 3.63 to 6.19 to go with a 78/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings. At his best, Lord sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and runs it into the upper 90's, showing some nice life on the pitch to boot. He flashes with both his curveball and his slider, though they can blend into each other and are still searching for their identities a bit, similar to his changeup. His lack of a consistent, reliable offspeed pitch may have contributed to his late season struggles as his fastball velocity dipped, but he's shown enough at his best to inspire confidence he can pull it together. The 6'3" righty is very projectable and moves well on the mound, which bodes well for his ability to hold his stuff over a long season and stick in the rotation, and that athletic delivery helps him pound the strike zone with average command and above average control. If he can take a step forward with any one of his offspeed pitches to keep hitters off his fastball, he becomes a mid-rotation candidate in a hurry. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk, one hit batsman, and one strikeout.

3-100: OF Tavian Josenberger, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $671,800. Signing bonus: $603,000 ($68,800 below slot value).
My rank: #167. MLB Pipeline: #156. Baseball America: #246. Prospects Live: #125.
This fits into the Orioles' early day two preferences as a high performing outfielder with a smattering of fun tools. Tavian Josenberger, a Kansas transfer, had a breakout season despite the jump in competition from the Big 12 to the SEC, slashing .286/.414/.490 with ten home runs and a 51/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Razorbacks. There is no standout tool here like Enrique Bradfield's speed or Mac Horvath's power/speed combo, but it's an extremely balanced profile reminiscent of recent Orioles picks like Donta' Williams and Reed Trimble. Josenberger is a twitchy athlete that can whip the barrel through the zone with authority from both sides of the plate, producing sneaky pull side power with natural loft. However, I wouldn't expect more than perhaps 15 home runs per season as he switches over to wood bats as he's not the most physical player in this class at an even six feet tall. He's a patient hitter that draws a ton of walks, in fact doing so at an excellent 17.2% clip this spring, which helps him tap his power more often in games because he finds good pitches to hit. That masks largely average bat to ball skills, and like Horvath, he can get into trouble in deeper counts and ran a strikeout rate above 20%. The Kansas City-area product is a versatile defender that will likely see most of his time in the outfield for Baltimore, where he profiles as a plus defender and could stick in center field. I see this as a fourth outfield profile with a solid all-around bat and nice speed. He's off to a bit of a slower start, slashing just .152/.339/.196 with a 12/13 strikeout to walk ratio through 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

4-118: RHP Levi Wells, Texas State {video}
Slot value: $563,600. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($63,600 below slot value).
My rank: #107. MLB Pipeline: #96. Baseball America: #111. Prospects Live: #81.
Back to the pitching ranks, Levi Wells has been on scouts' radars for a while now. A well-known prospect out of La Porte High School east of Houston, he made it to campus at Texas Tech but struggled badly with command and transferred a little closer to home at Texas State, where he has fit in much better. After establishing himself as a potential top 50 pick with a strong sophomore season (3.07 ERA, 86/32 K/BB), he was less consistent as a junior and finished with a 5.02 ERA and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings. He had some gems, including a thirteen strikeout complete game against Marshall, but also some duds, such as a start at Coastal Carolina in which he got blown up for eight runs in an inning and a third. Wells sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96 from a higher slot but getting great riding life on the pitch up in the zone that could make it a plus pitch if commanded more consistently. He adds a big, power curveball that functions as his out pitch, while his newer cutter/slider has developed quickly and his changeup is a bit behind. It's a really nice four pitch mix from a sturdy 6'2" frame that can be hard to find in the fourth round, though to this point he hasn't put it together consistently. Wells' command has really improved during his time in college as he's seriously toned down his delivery, but it's still fringy and he gets into trouble behind in counts when he leaves the ball over the plate. A tick more velocity on his fastball or a bit more consistency with his slider and changeup could render that less of an issue, as he is usually at least around the zone. It's a #3/#4 starter profile if he makes the adjustments he needs to make.

5-154: OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte {video}
Slot value: $396,700. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($21,700 below slot value).
My rank: #145. MLB Pipeline: #147. Baseball America: #140. Prospects Live: #128.
This is a boom/bust candidate if there ever was one. Jake Cunningham has extremely loud tools that rival those of second rounder Mac Horvath, but how they'll translate to pro ball remains to be seen. Cunningham had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (16 HR, .304/.410/.595) but a poorly timed ankle injury slowed him down out of the gate and he never quite got going fully, finishing 2023 with eleven home runs, a .267/.359/.519 slash line, and a 56/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. He has massive raw power from the right side, at least plus now and potentially greater in the future with 90th percentile exit velocities approaching 107 MPH in 2023. He's also a patient hitter that does a good job of making pitchers come to him, though the hit tool is well below average. Cunningham has long levers and some moving parts in his swing, leading to elevated swing and miss and a strikeout rate over 25% this year. Additionally, he struggled in a small sample on the Cape (.174/.269/.217) and was a non-factor against good competition in the Clemson Regional, where he struck out nine times in sixteen plate appearances. That's not going to cut it at this point. Meanwhile, he didn't get a chance to show it much in 2023 due to the ankle injury, but he's at least a plus runner when healthy if not approaching plus-plus. That speed adds an entire new dimension to his game, which is a major boon for him in the outfield where he projects to stick in center field. The Orioles are bought into the player they saw in 2022 and they believe that the tools are so loud here that it's worth gambling on questionable pure hitting ability. It's a bit reminiscent of the Jud Fabian pick last year, though Fabian was significantly more refined and went a few rounds earlier. In his two games in the Florida Complex League, he has three hits (all singles), two strikeouts, and three walks to this point.

6-181: RHP Jacob Cravey, Samford {video}
Slot value: $312,300. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($12,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #321. Prospects Live: #225.
In a year where many pitchers saw inflated ERA's due to college baseball's hitter-friendly environment, Jacob Cravey put up a career year with a 3.10 ERA and a 126/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Samford. Cravey is a big, physical right hander at 6'6", 215 pounds, possessing a low 90's fastball that touches 98 at best with great riding life from a higher slot. His slider has nice two plane bite and his changeup gets solid fade, making for a great baseline of a three pitch mix. The South Alabama native repeats his delivery well and shows average command, so the entire package looks like that of a back-end starter. Cravey is more about arm strength than athleticism or explosiveness, which may limit his ceiling a bit. Still, it's a nice high-probability starter package in the sixth round.

7-211: RHP Teddy Sharkey, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: $244,400. Signing bonus: $215,000 ($29,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #395. Prospects Live: #242.
Teddy Sharkey is the opposite of Jacob Cravey. While Cravey is a somewhat polished innings-eating starter type, Sharkey is a ball of fire that is likely a pure reliever at the pro level. He's coming off a great season as the Coastal Carolina closer in which he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 74/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch 98 with great riding life, while his curveball and slider are both distinct, nasty breaking pitches that miss a ton of bats. The 6' righty has an uptempo delivery and his control is well ahead of his command, so it's unlikely that he makes the jump to starting in pro ball. His demeanor fits well in the bullpen, as he pitches with a ton of energy, attacks hitters with everything he has, and loves to compete. If the Jersey Shore native's command holds together in pro ball, he could move quickly as a reliever. In his first appearance in the Florida Complex League, he tossed two shutout innings on one walk and three strikeouts.

10-301: OF Matthew Etzel, Southern Miss {video}
Slot value: $167,000. Signing bonus: $167,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #229. Baseball America: #257. Prospects Live: #165.
This could be a sneaky good pick for the Orioles. Matthew Etzel began his career at Texas A&M, but quickly transferred to Panola JC in Texas and played two years there, where by the end of his sophomore season he began to earn serious draft consideration. Instead of going pro, he transferred again to Southern Miss where he was more good than great this year. He started slowly, not homering for the first two months of the season, but once he started turning on the ball and driving it with authority he was able to put together solid numbers, with a .316/.381/.470 slash line, 23 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. The Orioles are bought into that new and improved Etzel, who has a chance to be a dynamic talent. The Houston-area native has an adjustable barrel and can get to balls all over the zone, though he's less comfortable with offspeed stuff and that's something to watch for in his transition to pro ball. His quick hands and feel for the barrel give him sneaky power, with the chance to hit perhaps 10-15 home runs per season, though it will likely never be a huge part of his game. Etzel is an easy plus runner that can be a menace on the bases, and it also helps him play a pretty mean center field. He likely profiles as a fourth outfielder whose ability to be a net-positive in center will make him a valuable piece. He has had a solid transition to pro ball so far, slashing .278/.409/.481 with two home runs, a dozen stolen bases, and a 14/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

14-421: RHP Michael Forret, State College of Florida Manatee-Sarasota {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($300,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #407. Prospects Live: unranked.
All those little bits of money the Orioles saved here and there on day two added up to something to throw around, and while a few day three picks went unsigned, they landed fourteenth rounder Michael Forret for  early fifth round money. A true freshman this year, Forret posted a 3.34 ERA and a 106/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.1 innings on the Florida JuCo circuit, then impressed evaluators with a strong start for Falmouth in the Cape Cod League late in the draft cycle. Overall, the 6'3" righty brings a pretty advanced package for a teenager. He sits in the low 90's, touching 94 with riding life, while adding a nice diving slider and a fading changeup. None of his three pitches stand out as likely strikeout pitches at the next level quite yet, but he commands them well with conviction and offers plenty of projection in his lean frame. Once the Orioles iron out his delivery a little bit and help him tack on some weight, he could be sitting in the mid 90's while holding that above average command. He only turned 19 in April and offers a nice combination of safety and upside for under $500,000.

Sunday, October 23, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the SEC East

2022 draftees: 41. Top school: Tennessee (10)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/17/2021, full SEC)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-25, Yankees: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt)
1-28, Astros: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee)
1C-31, Rockies: OF Sterlin Thompson (Florida)
CBA-38, Rockies: OF Jordan Beck (Tennessee)
2-44, Pirates: LHP Hunter Barco (Florida)
2-52, Mets: RHP Blade Tidwell (Tennessee)
CBB-67, Orioles: OF Jud Fabian (Florida)

Last year, I left the SEC as one conference, but now that an already incredibly deep conference is getting even deeper with the help of the transfer portal era, I had to split it into two. The SEC East, which contains seven teams, saw 41 players drafted and only Missouri and powerhouse Florida, ironically enough, failed to have five players hear their name called. Even though they fell to the bottom of the conference with four, all four Gators went in the first ninety picks. Last year, each of the first four players drafted from the SEC East were outfielders, but this is a conference known for its gauntlet of arms and six of the top eight prospects and each of the first three players that missed the list are pitchers. Let's take a look at the top ten prospects from South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 190 lbs. Born 10/26/2001. Hometown: Evans, GA.
2022: 10-0, 2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB in 79 innings.
Last year, Tennessee was the most dominant team in college baseball for most of the season and led the SEC East with ten players drafted, and they return in 2023 with not just the best prospect in the division, but likely the best pitcher in the entire draft class heading into the season. Chase Dollander began his career at Georgia Southern near his hometown in the Augusta area, but transferred to Tennessee as a sophomore and just dominated the SEC on all fronts. At this point, he's pretty much the ideal pitching prospect. Dollander sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for 99 when he wants to, so triple digits will certainly be on the figurative radar for 2023. Beyond its velocity, it's an explosive fastball that carries from a fairly low release point with strong extension, getting on hitters in a hurry. He throws two breaking balls highlighted by a plus slider with late bite, as well as a deeper curveball, and his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. It's truly explosive stuff that would be hard to handle even if hitters were able to get ahead in the count and look for hangers, but that's not all. The 6'3" lefty also has a very athletic, efficient delivery that enables him to pound the strike zone and get ahead in the count in a hurry, and he never walked more than two batters in any of his 14 starts last year while striking out 35.3% of his opponents. With his combination of explosive stuff, athleticism, durability, and command, it's really hard to poke any holes in this profile and he has a chance to go first overall if he continues to throw like he did in 2022.

2. OF Wyatt Langford, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 225 lbs. Born 11/15/2001. Hometown: Trenton, FL.
2022: 26 HR, .355/.447/.719, 7 SB, 44/36 K/BB in 66 games.
Up in the North Florida town of Gainesville, they pull most of their talent from larger hotbeds to the south such as Miami, Tampa, and Orlando, but the outfield was full of local kids like Jud Fabian (Ocala), Sterlin Thompson (Ocala), and Wyatt Langford (Trenton). Fabian and Thompson both went in the top forty picks at various points, but Langford has a chance to beat both the Ocala boys by a good margin. He earned just four at bats as a freshman in 2021, but took the conference by storm in 2022 with an incredible sophomore season in which he led the SEC with 26 home runs and 184 total bases and tied Dylan Crews (LSU) for the conference lead with 73 runs scored. Langford packs a ton of strength into his 6'1" frame, channeling it efficiently into a smooth right handed swing that keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time while still creating loft. An advanced hitter, he uses the whole field effectively with few holes in his swing, and can easily spread out that power by getting his arms extended and taking you deep to right field. He held strong strikeout (14.5%) and walk (11.9%) rates in 2022, though as an outfielder looking to go near the very top of the draft, he'd do well for himself to up the latter a bit to potentially eclipse the former. That's nitpicky given he really doesn't have problems with swing and miss, especially considering his plus power, but that's how it goes in the top ten picks. Defensively, Langford's above average speed gives him a chance to stick in center field, and a team that believes in his glove might give him a long look in those top couple of picks. If he slows down at all though, or if he ends up on a team with a bona fide center fielder already on the roster, he may move to left field. That would put pressure on his bat and may move him back closer to a team picking in the 8-15 range if that's how teams evaluate him, but there is plenty, plenty enough bat to profile in that role. At his peak, Langford has a chance for 30+ home runs per season with solid or better on-base percentages.

3. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 205 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Thomasville, GA.
2022 (@ Southern Miss): 6-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 140/33 K/BB in 90 innings.
One of the top transfers in the entire country this year, Hurston Waldrep dominated Conference USA last year and finished eighth in the nation with 140 strikeouts for Southern Miss. After teaming with fellow top draft prospect Tanner Hall in the Golden Eagles rotation, he heads across the Gulf to Florida, where he'll be gunning for one of the most coveted Friday night roles in the country. The stuff is absolutely there – Waldrep sits in the mid 90's with his fastball that can touch 99, coming in with explosive ride that makes it a similar pitch velocity and movement-wise to Chase Dollander's fastball. While Dollander has better command and is the better overall prospect, Waldrep's secondaries do make it close. He throws a power slider in the upper 80's with hard sweeping action, and his deep hammer curveball has knee-buckling bite to give hitters another thing to worry about. Additionally, he's been working on a splitter that looks above average at its best, making for arguably the best four pitch mix in the country. The 6'2" righty comes in with an uptempo delivery, taking advantage of his quick twitch athleticism and exploding towards the plate. He repeats it well, though his command is just average for now and will be something to watch against those disciplined SEC lineups. If he can continue to pound the strike zone and miss bats with his devastating stuff, he has a chance to be the first pitcher off the board.

4. OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 160 lbs. Born 12/2/2001. Hometown: Hialeah, FL.
2022: 8 HR, .317/.415/.498, 46 SB, 40/41 K/BB in 62 games.
There might not be a more enjoyable player to watch in all of college baseball than Enrique Bradfield. A potential top three round pick out of high school in 2020, he instead made it to campus at Vanderbilt and has tormented the rest of the SEC since day one. He hit .336/.451/.414 as a freshman and led the nation with 47 stolen bases, then tied for second in the nation in 2022 with 46 stolen bases while getting on base over 40% of the time and bumping his home run total from one to eight. Speed is the name of the game here, as he is an 80 grade runner that further causes problems with elite instincts on the base paths. He's not just the best baserunner in this draft, but the best in quite some time. Not only did he steal 46 bases last year, he didn't even get caught once – no other player in the nation stole more than 18 bases without being caught. But Bradfield is not just a runner. An ultra-skinny kid at 6'1", 160 pounds, he guides the barrel around the zone with precision and makes hard all fields contact with regularity, giving himself more than ample opportunity to utilize that blazing speed in games. A patient hitter as well that will make you work to get him out, he walked more than he struck out both in 2021 and 2022 and nearly did so again on the Cape last summer, where he ran a .389 on-base percentage against the best pitching in the country. He'll never be a power threat with that rail-thin build, but given his feel for the barrel and strong pitch selection, he could turn on a few mistake pitches at the big league level and ambush you for 5-10 home runs per season. The calling card, of course, will always be the speed, and outfielders will have to be careful they don't let routine base hits become doubles or let balls in the gap turn into triples. As you might expect, the elite speed translates into plus defense in center field, giving him a third plus or better tool. As long as he continues to impact the ball in 2023 like he has the past two seasons, he has a very good chance to go in the middle of the first round or better.

5. RHP Patrick Reilly, Vanderbilt.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 210 lbs. Born 10/7/2001. Hometown: Sea Girt, NJ.
2022: 2-3, 4.99 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 69/35 K/BB in 52.1 innings.
Had the 2020 high school season not been cut short by COVID, there's a good chance Patrick Reilly would have never made it to Nashville as he had been carrying plenty of helium into the season. He has tantalized with his arm talent for two years now, but to this point is yet to put it all together and for the second straight season is one of the conference's more prominent breakout candidates. He holds a 4.99 ERA and a 122/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings through two seasons at Vanderbilt, and after a pair of strong scoreless starts in the Cape Cod League in 2021, he was up and down on the Cape in 2022 with a 4.26 ERA and a 20/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings. Those are not particularly inspiring numbers, but this is a premium arm nonetheless. Reilly sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has reached as high as 98, with moderate riding action that isn't quite enough to elicit a ton of chases, but does keep it off barrels. His best secondary pitch is an inconsistent, deep slider that regularly flashes plus, while he also works in a harder cutter and a changeup. This 6'3" righty has a premium pitcher's frame, and throughout his time in Nashville he has gotten much more athletic with his delivery. To this point, his command has not followed suit as he can get too uptempo and struggle to stay under control, but the athleticism does give plenty of hope that he can eventually get more consistent in that regard. With the power arm, durability, athleticism, and deep arsenal, he has a chance to put everything together and pitch his way into the first round this spring.

6. RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'6", 215 lbs. Born 3/30/2002. Hometown: Atlanta, GA.
2022: 7-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 91/31 K/BB in 89.1 innings.
South Carolina has another horse ready to lead them to a competitive year in the SEC East. Will Sanders has been an impact arm since the day he reached Columbia, holding a career 3.47 ERA and a 145/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.2 innings almost entirely as a starter. Built like a stick of bamboo at 6'6", he offers plenty of projection even as he's steadily tacked on velocity with South Carolina. He presently sits in the low 90's but can bump it up to the mid 90's at will, though the pitch has pretty generic plane and movement. Sanders stands out more for his secondaries, including an above average slider that is still searching for its identity and can flash plus at its best, as well as an above average changeup that represents one of the better cambios in the class. The Atlanta native has a very simple, low effort delivery with a strong lower half that helps him pound the strike zone with above average control and average command while holding his velocity deep into starts. The flip side is that he doesn't create much deception, and when you combine that with his generic fastball, his ceiling may be a bit limited unless he finds a way get more movement. Still, with three above average pitches, durability, projection, and solid command, he is a high probability mid rotation starter.

7. OF Jared Dickey, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 3/1/2002. Hometown: Mount Juliet, TN.
2022: 7 HR, .380/.484/.690, 3 SB, 12/20 K/BB in 40 games.
Jordan Beck, Drew Gilbert, Trey Lipscomb, Jorel Ortega, Luc Lipcius, Evan Russell. If you watch college baseball, you're very familiar with those names that helped make up Tennessee's murderer's row of a lineup last year, but Jared Dickey flew somewhat under the radar in a reserve role. Appearing in 40 of the team's 66 games and only starting 25, he slashed .380/.484/.690 with seven home runs and struck out less than ten percent of the time. He stands out most for his tremendous combination of discipline and barrel accuracy, making him an extremely tough out and helping him get on base nearly half the time. Dickey utilizes a very simple left handed swing, keeping his hands inside the ball and squaring it up with consistency, leading to a high volume of singles, extra base hits, and even home runs in Tennessee's hitter-friendly home park. There will be a lot of eyes on him in 2023 as he gets more consistent at bats and opposing teams are able to focus more on their game plans against him with Beck, Gilbert, and co. out of the way. Continuing to perform now that the secret is out will certainly benefit his stock, but given a 9.5% strikeout rate and a 15.9% walk rate last year, it's hard to imagine there's anything opposing teams can throw him that will fool him. He has the upside of a high on-base hitter that can knock 15-20 home runs per season, certainly a hit over power profile for now unless he changes his approach to chase that power. He has seen some time behind the plate but likely profiles as a corner outfielder, where the pressure will really be on his bat, but he has time to work on his catching and guys like Dalton Rushing and Nathan Hickey have been able to make it work with similar profiles. Proving he can catch while continuing to hit would likely push him into the first round.

8. SS Maui Ahuna, Tennessee.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 170 lbs. Born 3/11/2002. Hometown: Hilo, HI.
2022 (@ Kansas): 8 HR, .396/.479/.634, 13 SB, 49/28 K/BB in 53 games.
Hurston Waldrep isn't the only big name player transferring into the SEC East. While Kansas baseball has struggled for a long time now, Maui Ahuna was one of the best players to come through the program in a long time and hit .357/.447/.532 with nine home runs in 103 games over two seasons. He had a chance to be the first Jayhawk drafted since third rounder Ryan Zeferjahn in 2019 and the first to go in the top two rounds since Curt Shaw way back in 1990, but upon head coach Ritch Price's retirement, he announced his intention to transfer to Tennessee. He had an up and down run with the Collegiate National Team but struggled in a short stint on the Cape, striking out 15 times in 28 plate appearances, so his transition to SEC pitching will be closely watched even if he dominated against strong Big 12 pitching. Ahuna lacks a carrying tool, but he does almost everything well and brings plenty of ceiling. A skinny kid, he comes with a very athletic 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add good weight, and he did already improve from one home run as a freshman to eight as a sophomore. He gets good leverage from the left side with those long arms and a big, powerful swing, so he should get to above average power as he gets stronger. The Hawaii native did strike out in over 20% of his plate appearances last year and had that rough Cape run, so the hit tool is a bit more in question with a bit of a swoopy swing, but he has a very accurate barrel and had no problem performing in the Big 12 last year, where he led the conference in batting average. Ahuna also brings value with his glove, as a potential above average defender at shortstop with a good arm, though he may have to move to third base if he slows down at all. Optimists will give him above average tools across the board while pessimists may see more average tools, leaving a lot of room for split opinions. A team that believes in the tools might consider him as high as the first round, while those that are more off-put by the 53.5% strikeout rate on the Cape and see him as a third baseman rather than a shortstop might want to wait until the second or third round to roll the dice.

9. LHP Magdiel Cotto, Kentucky.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'4", 250 lbs. Born 6/24/2002. Hometown: Fort Mill, SC.
2022: 3-1, 6.06 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 36/19 K/BB in 32.2 innings.
Magdiel Cotto teamed with Will Sanders at South Carolina as a freshman in 2021, but struggled to find innings in that loaded pitching staff and transferred to Kentucky as a sophomore. Serving as a swingman, he struggled with consistency and ended up with forgettable numbers, but he turned heads in the Cape Cod League with a 3.73 ERA and a 33/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings. At his best, Cotto has some of the loudest left handed stuff in the country, and he's learning to harness it now. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and gets up to 97, coming in with that tough lefty angle to boot. His slider shows good sweep and looks above average, and he drops in a solid changeup as well to give him a very strong three pitch mix from the left side. The 6'4", 250 pound left hander creates deception hiding the ball behind that big frame, which also projects durability. Cotto has struggled with command in the past but looked better in that regard on the Cape, trending towards average which would really help him stick in the rotation long term. In 2023, scouts will obviously be looking for much more consistency than he showed over the past two years, hoping his loud stuff plays up against SEC lineups like it is capable of. Additionally, he doesn't turn 21 until shortly before the draft, making him one of the younger college players available.

10. LHP Liam Sullivan, Georgia.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'6", 245 pounds. Born 5/16/2002. Hometown: Sandy Springs, GA.
2022: 4-3, 4.62 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 51/20 K/BB in 48.2 innings.
Over the past few years, Georgia has produced quite a few polished arms such as Emerson Hancock, Ryan Webb, and Jonathan Cannon, but in 2023 they have a pair of power armed lefties that have a chance to break out. I like Jaden Woods a lot, and he just missed this list, but Liam Sullivan has helium and pushed into the back. He sits in the low 90's and has hit 96 with his running fastball, adding a downer curveball and a solid changeup to form a very good three pitch mix. He is yet to put it together in Athens, but he really elevated his stock with a dominant run through the Cape Cod League in which he posted a 2.17 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings and looks to ride that success into 2023. Standing 6'6", 245 pounds, he is a big, physical presence on the mound that works downhill and can overpower hitters at his best. The command hasn't quite been there at Georgia, but he pounded the zone on the Cape and continuing to do so could push him into the top two rounds as a mid rotation starter type.

Monday, July 27, 2020

2020 Draft: Top 12 Undrafted High School Hitters

Just like with the pitchers, more hitting talent is heading to college than ever before. In this case, there are actually a ton of catchers between Georgia Tech's Kevin Parada, UVA's Kyle Teel, Arizona's Daniel Susac, and Georgia's Corey Collins, in addition to Miami's Carlos Perez, who just missed the "others" section. Another running theme here is power, as only two of the twelve names profile for anything less than above average raw power. Parada and LSU's Dylan Crews are the clear headliners here, though lower down on the list, I see Cayden Wallace and AJ Shaver being interesting sleepers to keep an eye on. By conference in the 17 listed, the SEC leads the way with six names including two of the top four, while Arizona was the only school to bring on multiple hitters on the list. Between the hitters and pitchers list, Miami and Arizona are tied with three names apiece, though I'd easily call the Miami crop the best one.

1. C Kevin Parada (my draft rank: 47)
Loyola HS [CA] -> Georgia Tech
Atlanta is a long way from Kevin Parada's home in Los Angeles, but if you're looking for a school with track record behind the plate, Georgia Tech is the way to go. Parada will look to be next in a long line of Yellow Jacket catching talent extending from Jason Varitek and Matt Wieters to, more recently, 2018 Giants second overall pick Joey Bart and 2019 A's fourth round pick Kyle McCann. If anything, Parada brings a big time bat. It's not as flashy as Bart's, but it's certainly more balanced than McCann's. He combines naturally above average raw power with an advanced hit tool that has enabled that power to play up in games and which made him one of the more consistent performers on the prep circuit. This spring, he started off especially hot and might have hit his way into first round consideration, but his commitment to Georgia Tech remained firm and he effectively priced himself out of the draft. Defensively, he's a bit more of a work in progress, as he doesn't show the soft hands and natural agility behind the plate that teams look for, but he should still be good enough to catch at least in school. Very few question his bat, and he should be able to jump into the Yellow Jacket starting lineup as a freshman, whether that's behind the plate or somewhere else like first base or DH. He has a good shot to be one of the ACC's better bats over the next three seasons, so the development of his glove will likely determine whether he cracks the first round. Pre-draft profile here.

2. OF Dylan Crews (my draft rank: 55/unranked)
Lake Mary HS [FL] -> Louisiana State
Technically, I removed Dylan Crews from my draft rankings when he formally removed himself from the draft, but he would have ranked 55th had he not taken his name out. LSU is no stranger to big recruits making it to campus and brought on a big bat in Cade Doughty last year, but Crews could be an even bigger get. Playing out of the same suburban Orlando high school that produced Rockies infielder Brendan Rodgers in 2015, Crews put his name on the map early in his high school career and has long been a staple in first round conversations. However, an up and down summer, in addition to an unremarkable, shortened senior year, pushed him more into the second round range. Crews clearly believes that he possesses a first round bat, and he's off to prove it in Baton Rouge. He naturally produces a ton of raw power from a lightning quick right handed swing, and he has tapped that power against high level pitching for a long time. However, this past summer, he really tried to show it off, and that led to some swing and miss and overall uneven performance. Crews is at his best when he stays within himself and lets his strength and bat speed send the ball deep, and when he does stay within himself, he shows an above average hit tool. He'll look to refine his approach at LSU and get more consistent, and if he produces in the SEC like he's capable of, he could return in 2023 a first round pick. I could easily see Crews as one of the SEC's most productive hitters over the next few seasons. Pre-draft profile here.

3. OF Chase Davis (my draft rank: 65)
Franklin HS [CA] -> Arizona
I think more people expected Nick Yorke to make to campus at Arizona than Chase Davis, but Yorke's surprise first round selection to Boston was enough to pry him away from Tucson and Davis ended up effectively pricing himself out instead. Throw in Daniel Susac, and you have a couple of big Sacramento-area bats coming in to replace the departed catchers Austin Wells (Yankees, first round) and Matthew Dyer (Mets, fourth round). Davis is a power hitter with plenty of lean muscle packed onto his 6'1" frame, deploying his quick hands into explosive bat speed from the left side. Right now, the main flaw in his profile is a significant bat wrap that causes his swing to start with the head of the bat pointed towards the pitcher, making his swing a lot longer than it needs to be. Against high school pitching, his bat speed was more than enough to make up for that, but some of the premium arms on the showcase circuit were able to exploit that and overall he's a fairly streaky hitter. At Arizona, he has both the power and feel for the barrel to develop into one of the better hitters in the Pac 12, but his success might hinge on how well the Arizona coaching staff is able to smooth out that bat wrap. To me, it's reason to envision him showing a future average or even above average hit tool, because if he can succeed with the bat wrap, who knows how well he could hit without it. Eliminating that "who knows" with big production in the Pac 12 could turn him into a first round pick, but further inconsistency could have the opposite effect. Davis also has a plus arm and enough range to be an above average defender in right field, perhaps even a center fielder in college ball depending on who the Wildcats have in the outfield. Pre-draft profile here.

4. OF Enrique Bradfield (my draft rank: 72)
American Heritage HS [FL] -> Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt put together the best outfield recruiting class I've ever seen between Robert Hassell, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Enrique Bradfield, and while Hassell (Padres) and Crow-Armstrong (Mets) both went in the top 19 picks, Bradfield made it through and will end up in Nashville. One of the fastest players in the 2020 draft class, he has a chance to be a true leadoff bat that sets the tone for the next few Vanderbilt lineups. A very skinny kid at a listed 6' and 155 pounds, Bradfield is an old school type with very little power to speak of. Instead, he likes to slap the ball around the field and use his plus-plus wheels to do the rest, though he's not a pure slap hitter in that he has shown the ability to drive the ball if he wants to. I don't see him ever getting close to average power, but with a loose left handed swing and natural feel for the barrel, I could definitely see Bradfield knocking plenty of doubles and triples at Vanderbilt while running into a couple of home runs here and there. He'll also wreak havoc on the basepaths and be a handful for SEC catchers, aided by the likely high on-base percentages he'll put up. It's hard to see him projecting as a true first round pick just due to the lack of power, but three years of production in the SEC to prove his hit tool is for real could get him close. Defensively, I probably don't have to tell you that he's a true center fielder. It's always hard to break through and find playing time at Vanderbilt, but I don't expect him to take too long to be at least ready for full time duties in the SEC. Pre-draft profile here.

5. SS/3B Drew Bowser (my draft rank: 79)
Harvard-Westlake HS [CA] -> Stanford
Bowser was actually only the second best prospect on his Los Angeles high school team behind Mets first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong, but he has a shot to be one of the better hitters Stanford has brought on in recent years. Bowser is a power hitter that generates a lot of torque from a sturdy 6'3" frame and a powerful right handed swing, regularly putting on a show in batting practice. While his power hasn't played up as consistently in games, it's definitely trending in the right direction as he has tightened up that right handed swing and let his power come naturally rather than selling out. A shortstop in high school, he's probably a third baseman in pro ball due to his fringy range, but he may be able to stick at the position in college depending on what the lineup looks like around him. If a better defender does push him to third base, he'll be above average there and an asset for the Cardinal. Bowser was trending up as a hitter before the season shut down, so it will be interesting to see how ready his bat is for the Pac 12 when his freshman season begins. Either way, by the time he's a sophomore, I'd expect him to be putting up big numbers. Pre-draft profile here.

6. SS/3B Yohandy Morales (my draft rank: 91)
Braddock HS [FL] -> Miami
Miami brought on two of the top four incoming high school pitching prospects on my previous list, and now they're on the board with the sixth best incoming hitting prospect as well. To make things even more fun for Hurricanes fans, all three of Victor Mederos, Alejandro Rosario, and Yohandy Morales, plus another top recruit in catcher Carlos Perez, attended high school in Miami-Dade County. Morales is a big power hitter who was trending up in the spring, more efficiently channeling his natural strength and leverage into game power. He's a big guy at 6'4" that can really put a charge into a baseball, though up until recently, he had a lot going on in his setup/swing that often led to some swing and miss. If he can maintain the adjustments he made in the shortened 2020 season that saw him calm down that setup, he could be the anchor of Miami lineups for the next couple of years. Morales, like Bowser, played shortstop in high school, but he's probably more likely to end up at third base even in Coral Gables. The loss of shortstop Freddy Zamora (Brewers, second round) and infield recruit Sammy Infante (Nationals, comp round) helps Morales' chances, though Miami is such a hotbed for talent that someone will inevitably rise up and push Morales to third base. Still, he has a chance to be solid average there and given how much he could hit, it won't really matter where he ends up defensively. Evaluators will be watching closely to see if he can bring that quieter approach to college ball, and if he demolishes ACC pitching like he is capable of, we could be looking at a high pick in the 2023 draft. Pre-draft profile here.

7. C Kyle Teel (my draft rank: 98/unranked)
Mahwah HS [NJ] -> Virginia
Like Dylan Crews, Kyle Teel formally removed his name from the draft during the spring, so he didn't end up on my rankings when he could have cracked the top 100. Nobody recruits out of the Pennsylvania/New Jersey area better than UVA, and Teel will hope to follow 2016 first rounder Matt Thaiss on the New Jersey to UVA catcher to major leagues pipeline. He will fit right into the Cavaliers' lineup as a well-rounded, disciplined player with the ability to play from day one. Teel doesn't have huge physical tools, but he's an agile defender behind the plate with soft hands who is actually athletic enough to play the infield if needed. With further refinement in college, he could make himself into a well above average defensive catcher. With the bat, it's a balanced profile with a loose left handed swing, some sneaky power, and a consistent hit tool that will enable him to handle ACC pitching. He probably won't post eye popping offensive numbers like Thaiss, but he'll be a better defender and he'll likely be very consistent. Continuing to bulk up and add impact to his overall game could put him in a really nice spot for the 2023 draft – while NC State's Patrick Bailey has more power than Teel will likely end up with, the fact that he went 13th overall without eye popping numbers shows the value of good defensive catchers who can hit.

8. OF Jace Bohrofen (my draft rank: 102)
Westmoore HS [OK] -> Oklahoma
Though Oklahoma lost shortstop recruits Bobby Witt Jr. to the Royals and Ed Howard to the Cubs in back to back first rounds, they landed a very solid outfield bat in Jace Bohrofen. While he doesn't have one standout tool like many of the other names on this list, Bohrofen brings a broad baseline that, at the very least, will make him a very productive player at the college level. I love the looseness and natural whip in his left handed swing, and his above average feel for the barrel enables him to make very consistent hard contact. For now, the power is pretty ordinary, but as he bulks up, he has the swing type and natural projection in his 6'2" frame to profile for average or even slightly above average power in pro ball. Back at the college level, I see him pretty easily playing up to at least above average power with metal bats and against Big 12 pitching. His feel for the game should enable him to slot right into the Oklahoma lineup from day one, and while he's more of a corner outfield profile for pro ball, he could stick in center field for the Sooners. Scouts were moderately underwhelmed by the tools he shows at this point, so three years of production in the Big 12 in addition to the chance to grow into some real power could change that in a big way come 2023.

9. 3B Cayden Wallace (my draft rank: 104)
Greenbrier HS [AR] -> Arkansas
Arkansas lost two superstar hitters to the 2020 draft in outfielder Heston Kjerstad (Orioles, second overall) and Casey Martin (Phillies, third round), but the returns of catcher Casey Opitz and infielder Robert Moore, plus a huge incoming freshman bat in Cayden Wallace, should keep the Razorbacks' lineup humming at a high level. Wallace is yet another power hitter who can really, really smoke the baseball, posting exit velocities up there with the best in the class. His swing could use a little bit of mechanical refinement to help him get more loft and extension, which could help him tap even bigger power. The hit tool will take a little more projection, as he has shown plenty of feel for the barrel in his high school career but since the barrel isn't in the zone for long, he can swing through hittable pitches at times. He'll be an interesting project for the Arkansas coaching staff that has had plenty of success with these types of hitters in the past, with a ton of upside to be unlocked. Given how deep the Arkansas lineup is, I'm not sure if he'll be able to crack the lineup from day one, but I expect him to work his way in rather quickly and he could be a legitimate impact hitter sooner rather than later for the Razorbacks. A shortstop in high school, he'll likely end up at third base in college, where his strong arm and quick instincts should make him solid average there.

10. C Daniel Susac (my draft rank: 110)
Jesuit HS [CA] -> Arizona
Joining Chase Davis on his way from Sacramento to Tucson will be Daniel Susac, the younger brother of MLB catcher Andrew Susac. Daniel will be a huge get for a Wildcats team that just lost both of its star catchers in Austin Wells (Yankees, first round) and Matthew Dyer (Mets, fourth round), giving him the chance to start full time immediately. Overall, Susac is a very solid all-around player with solid tools all-around but nothing that stands out at present. He generates above average raw power from a big, 6'3" frame that he has shown the ability to tap in games. A switch hitter, his long arms and legs can put some length into his swings at times, though he has shown the ability to make adjustments. His strength is apparent behind the plate with a strong arm, though he's not the most athletic back there and is still smoothing out his overall defensive game. Together it should profile well in college, where he could hit in the middle of the Wildcats lineup, and refining everything down into a more consistent product could really help his draft stock. He'll want to work quickly, because his May birthday makes him a year older than his peers in his class, and he'll be both age-appropriate and eligible for the 2022 draft as a sophomore.

11. C Corey Collins (my draft rank: 122)
North Gwinnett HS [GA] -> Georgia
Corey Collins was trending up when the shutdown happened, and some scouts believed he had a chance to hit his way into day one consideration with a full season. What was pro ball's loss could ultimately become Georgia's gain, as they're bringing on the top incoming catcher in the SEC. Collins, like many of the names before him on this list, is a power hitter with a big, strong 6'3" frame that produces a lot of leverage from the left side. However, he wasn't really seen much on the showcase circuit and therefore scouts didn't really know what to make of his hit tool, so that makes him a great candidate to go prove it in college. Some scouts who have seen more of Collins think his hit tool could be at least average, which would make him a really valuable player not only for the Bulldogs but in pro ball, but again, he's gotta prove it. Behind the plate, his defense is typical of high school catchers, with a strong arm and decent blocking/receiving skills in need of refinement. Collins has a chance to shoot up boards Patrick Bailey style with a strong career in Athens, and either way he's a huge get for that Georgia program.

12. OF AJ Shaver (my draft rank: 130)
South Lake HS [FL] -> Florida State
AJ Shaver was one of the last late risers up the board in this weird draft cycle, but his rise came too little too late to divert him away from heading to Florida State. He has a very quick right handed swing that produces some nice, natural raw power that he can tap naturally without selling out, though his aggressive approach has limited him at times against higher level pitching. Not just a power hitter, Shaver is also a plus runner that deploys his speed well on both sides of the ball, giving him another dimension with which to impact the game. While his hit tool is a bit uneven, that's more due to his approach than due to a lack of ability to find the barrel, and calming down his approach a bit at Florida State could help him improve his stock in a big way. Shaver was beginning to make those adjustments this spring and some regional evaluators are buying into the improvement, which is why his stock was rising. If he continues trending in this direction at FSU, Seminoles fans might have found themselves their next big offensive prospect.

Honorable Mentions: SS Cade Horton/3B Tanner Witt
Horton: Norman HS [OK] -> Oklahoma.  Witt: Episcopal HS [TX] -> Texas.
These guys were more prominently featured as numbers five and seven on my pitchers list, but they're going to hit at school as well so the Big 12 has a couple of big time two-way prospects coming to town. Horton, who is also a quarterback, generates some nice raw power from the extension he gets on a fairly explosive right handed swing, though his hit tool needs some work. His football athleticism plays well on the diamond, and he should stick at shortstop at least through his college career. With fellow Oklahoma commit Ed Howard signing with the Cubs in the first round, the spot is there for him to claim on days where he's not pitching. As for Tanner Witt, he's not quite the hitting prospect that Horton is, but he still shows big raw power from a 6'6" frame. Those long arms help him really put a charge into the ball when he gets extended, but the bat isn't quite as explosive as other power hitters in the class and he might struggle a bit with Big 12 pitching. While I would pick Horton to strike out Witt and Witt to strike out Horton in any future Big 12 match ups, I think Horton would be just a little more likely to pick up a hit off Witt than the other way around. Witt also doesn't bring the same defensive value as Horton, looking like he'll be limited to first base.

Others (by pre-draft rank):
132. SS Cole Foster, Plano Senior HS [TX] -> Auburn
140. OF Slade Wilks, Columbia Academy [MS] -> Southern Mississippi
145. 3B/RHP/QB Nolan McLean, Garner Magnet HS [NC] -> Oklahoma State
152. SS Colby Halter, Bishop Kenny HS [FL] -> Florida
158. OF Mario Zabala, International Baseball Academy [PR] -> Florida International

Monday, May 25, 2020

2020 Draft Profile: Enrique Bradfield

CF Enrique Bradfield, American Heritage HS [FL]
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 12/2/2001.  B/T: L/L.
Commitment: Vanderbilt.

Enrique Bradfield is one of the premier leadoff-types in this high school class, and he's definitely in the right place to get a lot of exposure. For one, he plays in the Miami area, which is particularly strong this year with nearly ten high school players who could be drafted in the top five rounds this year if signable. Additionally, he's part of the best recruiting class outfield in the country, joining likely first round picks Pete Crow-Armstrong and Robert Hassell as Vanderbilt signees. While he may be competing with LA-area infielder Milan Tolentino and Georgia Tech infielder Luke Waddell for the least power among potential top 100 draftees, the rest of his game is very strong and he could intrigue a team that likes more old-school prospects.

The first thing everyone will notice about Bradfield is the speed. He has true plus-plus wheels that enable him to impact the game on both sides of the ball, perhaps more than any other player in the class. That's key, because he's a very skinny kid at a listed 155 pounds who won't hit for much power at all. He has a loose left handed swing that enables him to put the ball in play consistently, then use his wheels to do the rest. The approach can get very slap-heavy, as he has a tendency to just drop the bat to the ball and try to beat out choppy ground balls to the other side, but he has shown the ability to drive the ball with at least moderate authority to the gaps. Defensively, he's one of the best center fielders in the class, and his pure speed in addition to good instincts gives him perhaps the best defensive upside of any high school outfielders around.

Bradfield's ultimate projection comes down to how much extra base power he'll be able to hit for. Expecting more than a couple home runs here and there would be unrealistic, but in order to succeed at the next level, he'll need to prove he can drive the ball into the gaps consistently to best deploy his speed. He'll always be a threat for infield hits, but defenses get better and better as you progress towards the majors and it won't be like tormenting the high school infielders he's faced in South Florida. There aren't a lot of successful big leaguers with Bradfield's profile, with perhaps the most similar player being fellow Floridian Mallex Smith.

All of that said, I think Bradfield has a very good chance to reach the upper end of his projections. That probably means single digit home run totals even if they keep juicing the baseballs, but he could produce upwards of 30-40 combined doubles and triples annually with solid on-base percentages and lots of stolen bases. Combine that with great defense, and it's an old school, prototypical leadoff profile. Because the game has moved away from that type of player in recent years in addition to him being a potentially difficult sign away from Vanderbilt, he has a fairly wide draft variance, but his talent fits anywhere from rounds two through four.

Hitting on the showcase circuit, summer 2019
Opposite field line drive from 2020 game action