The White Sox' system has been among the most elite in the game over the past few years, and perhaps its best development yet was the massive breakout of Luis Robert in 2019. On the hitters' side, it's more about big names at the top than depth, with Robert, Andrew Vaughn, and Nick Madrigal leading the way. However, disappointing seasons from a trio of high minors outfielders in Micker Adolfo, Blake Rutherford, and Luis Gonzalez do hurt a little bit, making the emergence of Robert even bigger. On the pitching side, injuries have really hurt them, with the top two starting pitching prospects, Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning, both missing the year with Tommy John surgery and the top two relief prospects, Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton, combining to throw just 39 innings. Fortunately, breakout years from Jonathan Stiever and Codi Heuer help make up some of that ground. Overall, it remains one of the top systems in the game, but I think even with the big year from Luis Robert, it's probably down a bit from where it's been the past couple years and is probably just outside the top five.
Affiliates: AAA Charlotte Knights, AA Birmingham Barons, High A Winston-Salem Dash, Class A Kannapolis Intimidators, rookie level Great Falls Voyagers, complex level AZL and DSL White Sox
Catcher
- Zack Collins (2020 Age: 25): Collins, a first round pick out of Miami in 2016, has always been fringy defensively behind the plate, but it looks like that won't matter now that the White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal and James McCann looks slated to be the backup. Instead, he'll probably share time with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Abreu at first base and DH. In 2019, Collins hit .282/.403/.548 with 19 home runs and a 98/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AAA Charlotte, and he hit .186/.307/.349 with three home runs and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 major league games. Collins is the epitome of a three true outcomes hitter, as he strikes out a ton but also hits lots of home runs and draws more than his fair share of walks. The swing and miss was enough that it finally caught up to him in the majors, where he struck out in 38.2% of his plate appearances, but his ability to draw walks and hit home runs enabled him to post a decent .656 OPS despite hitting just .186. I'm cautiously optimistic about Collins' ability to hit for enough power and draw enough walks that his high strikeout totals won't hurt his numbers too much, though now that he won't be catching regularly, the pressure will be on his bat. If it breaks right, he could hit 25+ home runs annually with middling on-base percentages, but with low batting averages.
- Seby Zavala (2020 Age: 26): Zavala is a pretty fringy prospect, and his future in Chicago probably hinges on whether the White Sox decide to use Collins as their third string catcher or strictly as a first base/DH type. If Collins ends up at DH full time, Zavala will be prepared to take over as the backup if either Grandal or McCann gets hurt, and in 2019 he slashed .222/.296/.471 with 20 home runs and a 116/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 games at AAA Charlotte. His MLB debut didn't go so well, as he struck out nine times in twelve plate appearances over five games, picking up one hit along the way, though some regular reps could help the San Diego State product get to his power more frequently at the big league level. He's a bat first catcher, so while the position is a bonus, he'll still have to hit to remain relevant.
- Keep an eye on: Ivan Gonzalez
Corner Infield
- Andrew Vaughn (2020 Age: 22): Vaughn was just drafted third overall out of Cal-Berkeley in 2019, but he's honestly so advanced as a hitter that he already tops the depth chart here. He mashed for three years at Cal (.376/.497/.691, 50 HR in 160 games) then hit .278/.384/.449 with six home runs and a 38/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in the complex level Arizona League, at Class A Kannapolis, and at High A Winston-Salem. If 50 home runs and nearly a .500 on-base percentage over three years in college aren't enough, Vaughn's .252/.349/.411 line in 29 games at High A just a month out of college ball should tell you just how advanced of a hitter he is. It's really easy to call him a right handed Joey Votto, because he has an exceptional understanding of the strike zone that enables him to be in complete control of the zone no matter who is pitching, and that maximizes what is really just above average power into a true plus tool. Together, that gives Vaughn the upside of 30+ home runs annually with on-base percentages above .400, which should net him MVP consideration as a Votto/Freddie Freeman type of player. He'll also fly through the minors and will soon challenge Jose Abreu or Zack Collins for one of their positions because defensively, he's limited to first base.
- Gavin Sheets (2020 Age: 24): Sheets, a second rounder out of Wake Forest in 2017 and the son of former Oriole Larry Sheets, fits behind Vaughn on this depth chart not because of anything he did wrong, but because Vaughn is so good. 2019 was a bit of a breakout year, at least in terms of home runs, as he slashed .267/.345/.414 with 16 home runs and a 99/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at AA Birmingham after hitting just ten total home runs the previous two years. Even with the increased home run output in 2019, his overall impact at the plate has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball, though he does control the strike zone well, limiting his strikeouts and drawing his share of walks. He might be a starting-quality first baseman if he takes a small step forward with his power, which is entirely doable, but the presence of Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, Zack Collins, and at least temporarily, Edwin Encarnacion, will make that difficult when the only positions he can play are first base and DH. That means he'll probably end up as a bench or platoon bat in the majors unless he's traded.
- Jake Burger (2020 Age: 24): It's been a really tough run for Burger. A first round pick out of Missouri State in 2017, he hit a solid .263/.336/.412 in his pro debut but tore his Achillies in spring training in 2018 and tore it again in May, completely wiping out his 2018 season. He then "severely bruised" his heel in 2019, which also wiped another entire season. So long story short, Burger is extremely talented by he hasn't played in two and a half years. Before the injury, he was a power hitter who was starting to make some real strides with his plate discipline, and it looked really good in his junior season and in his pro debut. That power will probably still be there when he finally returns, but he'll also probably need to regain his feel for the strike zone after not seeing live pitching in so long. A fringy defender at third base before the injury, there were already questions as to whether he'd move to first base, and I can't imagine two years of leg injuries help his case there. Really, we just need to wait and see.
- Bryan Ramos (2020 Age: 18): The White Sox signed Ramos for $300,000 out of Cuba in 2018, but in his first pro season in 2019, he made a strong impression by slashing .277/.353/.415 with four home runs and a 44/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Arizona League. He's got some raw power that he's still growing into, and he did a great job of getting on base consistently despite being just 17 years old. A fairly fringy defender at third base, he looked good in his debut and now has a good shot to stick there, though he's far too young to really know which parts of his game are going to be his calling cards down the road.
- DJ Gladney (2020 Age: 18-19): Gladney, a hometown kid who attended Illiana Christian High School in Dyer, Indiana, was a 16th rounder in 2019 and hit .264/.309/.428 with eight home runs and an 82/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games in the complex level Arizona League in his pro debut. He has a ton of raw pop that should only get bigger as he grows stronger, though he struggles to control the zone at this point and both his approach and his mechanics will need significant refinement. Fortunately, he doesn't turn 19 until July, making him young for a high school draftee and giving him plenty of time to iron things out and reach his tremendous potential.
- Keep an eye on: Ti'Quan Forbes, Tyler Osik, Harvin Mendoza
Middle Infield
- Nick Madrigal (2020 Age: 23): Madrigal, the fourth overall pick out of Oregon State in 2018, has flown through the minors as expected and slashed .311/.377/.414 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and an exceptional 16/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at High A Winston-Salem, AA Birmingham, and AAA Charlotte in his pro debut this year. Yes, you read that correctly; Madrigal struck out 16 times in 120 games, or in just 3% of his plate appearances. He has arguably the best bat to ball skills in the minor leagues, and if you include his pro debut in 2018, he's struck out just 21 times in 163 games. Madrigal is not merely a slap hitter, as he hit 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs in 2019, and even though he stands just 5'7", I think he'll be able to hit for enough impact in the majors to continue to evade the slap hitter label. That doesn't mean he'll hit double digit home runs every year, but I think 5-10 is reasonable and with his ability to find the barrel whenever he wants to, he could post on-base percentages nearing .400. An excellent runner, he'll provide a lot of value via the stolen base and he plays a very good second base, giving him all-around leadoff potential. With no clear option at second base in 2020, the starting job might be his to lose this year.
- Danny Mendick (2020 Age: 26): Doing his best to keep Madrigal out of that starting role for as long as he can will be Danny Mendick, a former 22nd round pick out of UMass-Lowell who has worked his way up through the minors slowly. In 2019, he slashed .279/.368/.444 with 17 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 96/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at AAA Charlotte, then he had a successful debut where he slashed .308/.325/.462 with a pair of home runs in 16 major league games. Mendick has no loud tools, but he's strongly competent in all facets of the game with good plate discipline, some compact strength in his 5'10" frame, and good baserunning and fielding instincts, which all adds up to a perfect utility infield profile. If Madrigal stumbles at all in spring training, Mendick might be able to land the starting second base job out of the gate, but either way it won't be long before Madrigal takes over.
- Yolbert Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Not to be confused with now former White Sox infielder Yolmer Sanchez, Yolbert defected from Cuba and signed with the White Sox for $2.5 million in July 2019 and slashed .297/.386/.441 with two home runs and a 12/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games in the Dominican Summer League just to get his feet wet. Given that he'll be 23 in March, he'll probably skip a few levels and end up in full season ball in 2019. Sanchez is a decent hitter who can make consistent contact with a line drive approach, but he doesn't hit for much power yet and at 5'11" and almost 23 years old, he probably won't develop a ton. On the flip side, he's an excellent defender at shortstop who will stick there no doubt, taking a lot of pressure off his bat, and if he can hit for at least some impact, he could start in the big leagues eventually. Even if he just hits a little bit, he could carve out a nice career as a utility infielder.
- Keep an eye on: Lenyn Sosa, Lency Delgado, Jose Rodriguez
Outfield
- Luis Robert (2020 Age: 22-23): Last year, Eloy Jimenez broke through and contended for the Rookie of the Year Award before Yordan Alvarez burst onto the scene, and the White Sox have another elite young outfielder coming up behind him in Luis Robert. Robert signed a $50 million contract extension this winter, giving him $76 million in guaranteed money (including his signing bonus) before ever steps onto a major league field, so there will be no worries about potential service time manipulation as he's set to start the season as an every day outfielder, potentially in center field. Injuries limited him to just 78 games over his first two seasons, but to say he "broke out" in 2019 would be an understatement as he slashed .328/.376/.624 with 32 home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 129/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Winston-Salem, AA Birmingham, and AAA Charlotte. He's an exceptional athlete who can generate a ton of torque with just the flick of his wrists, and he got to that power consistently against high level pitching in 2019. He's also a great runner, as evidenced by his 36 stolen bases in 2019, and that enables him to play a strong center field with his strong arm. The one hole in Robert's game is probably his aggressive approach, which limits his walks and causes him to strike out a decent amount, but the White Sox aren't worried about the hit tool because he makes very consistent, very hard contact and he did so even against AAA pitching. Robert has 20-20 or even 30-30 upside, and while he might not draw a ton of walks, he'll still have healthy, batting average-driven on-base percentages while playing great defense. That's a star's profile, though he still needs to prove his aggressive approach will work against major league pitching.
- Blake Rutherford (2020 Age: 22-23): Rutherford was the Yankees' first round pick in 2016 out of a Los Angeles-area high school, then came to Chicago in the Todd Frazier/David Robertson trade of 2017. In 2019, Rutherford slashed .265/.319/.365 with seven home runs and a 118/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Birmingham, which was a bit of a step back from his .293/.345/.436 mark in High A in 2018. The power has not developed nearly to what was projected when he was a high schooler, but he's continued to hit the ball hard and control the strike zone well enough to generate some impact at the plate. It might be the ground ball-heavy approach that's hurting him, and joining the fly ball revolution could pay big dividends. Defensively, he's solid-average, and overall he projects more as a fourth outfielder than as a starter unless he can start to tap that power by lifting the ball more.
- Micker Adolfo (2020 Age: 23): Adolfo signed for $1.6 million out of the Dominican Republic back in 2013, but unfortunately he's played just one full season as injuries have kept him off the field consistently. Back to back elbow surgeries in 2018 and 2019 limited his time most recently, and this year he slashed just .227/.346/.367 with two home runs and a 57/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games between AA Birmingham and complex level rehab. However, he'll play all of 2020 at just 23 years old, and he's looked so good when on the field that it's really hard to count him out. He has a ton of pop from the right side, but he has a ton of swing and miss problems as well, which he could be able to iron out if he could just stay on the field consistently. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him an asset in right field, though we have to see how it holds up after all these elbow surgeries. Overall, he retains a high ceiling if he can ever get on the field consistently, but I do worry that he's missed enough time that his hit tool will never catch up and he'll be relegated to a platoon bat.
- Luis Alexander Basabe (2020 Age: 23): Luis Alexander Basabe, not to be confused with his twin brother and Diamondbacks prospect, the similarly named Luis Alejandro Basabe, was acquired from the Red Sox in the Chris Sale trade of 2016. He slashed .250/.331/.341 with three home runs and a 92/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 games at Class A Kannapolis and AA Birmingham in 2019, but it's his glove that makes him worth tracking as a prospect. Basabe is great in center field with his range and strong arm, and that solid defense probably puts him ahead of Luis Gonzalez, another outfielder with a fairly similar offensive skill set, on the depth chart. Behind all these outfielders at the top of the system, he's probably a fourth outfielder, but his defense is probably only rivaled by Luis Robert (too many Luis's) and he can swing it just enough to make it work.
- Cameron Simmons (2020 Age: 23): Here's a deep sleeper for you. Simmons had a huge sophomore year at UVA and was looking like a great prospect for the 2018 draft, but shoulder surgery wiped out that junior season and he didn't look like the same player as a senior in 2019, where he dropped to the 20th round. After signing with the White Sox, he slashed .275/.342/.458 with five home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at rookie level Great Falls and Class A Kannapolis, which was a nice step in the right direction. At 6'4", Simmons is a graceful athlete on the field, but he looked stiffer after his injury and the numbers reflected that. The White Sox will work to get him back to where he was as an underclassman, and if his strong run through the Pioneer League and ability to hold his own in Class A are any indication, they might be able to build Simmons back up into a legitimate prospect.
- James Beard (2020 Age: 19): Beard was a fourth round pick out of a southwestern Mississippi high school in 2019, and he went on to slash .213/.270/.307 with two home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 54/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games in the rookie level Arizona League. Beard's calling card is by far his speed, which at this point remains the only part of his game that could really be considered pro-caliber at this point. He's extremely raw around the rest of his game, which is to be expected coming from a very rural part of Mississippi, but there is upside around the rest of his game. Though he's just 5'10", he packs a lot of strength into his compact frame, and he's got the swing to potentially hit for some power down the road. He's also trending in the right direction and put himself on the map in his senior year at Loyd Star High School, and the White Sox will hope that patience will pay off for the young speedster.
- Keep an eye on: Luis Gonzalez, Craig Dedelow, Alex Destino, Luis Mieses
Starting Pitching
- Michael Kopech (2020 Age: 24): Here's to hoping we get to see a healthy return for Michael Kopech in 2019. Drafted by the Red Sox at the end of the first round in 2014 out of a Northeast Texas high school, Kopech was shipped to the White Sox in the Chris Sale trade and a couple of strong seasons put him in the majors in 2018, where he had a 5.02 ERA and a 15/2 strikeout to walk ratio in four starts. However, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2019, and that's where we stand today. When healthy, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball that misses a ton of bats with its velocity and its hard arm side run, and he adds a hard slider that also misses a ton of bats with its velocity and late, hard break. Kopech also throws a curve and a changeup, which are effective pitches in their own right, but their existence is more to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball and slider than to be out pitches on their own. The one question for him, at least up until his Tommy John surgery, was command, and he will have to prove he can throw strikes and hit his spots consistently in order to retain his upside as a #1 or #2 starter. If the command stays where it's at, he could still crack it as an effective #3 or a #4 starter just due to how great his stuff is. The first thing on the list, of course, will be getting back to full strength after the surgery.
- Jonathan Stiever (2020 Age: 22-23): Stiever was more or less your generic college performer when the White Sox drafted him out of the University of Indiana in 2018, then he had a solid run through Class A Kannapolis with a 4.74 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 77/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings to start 2019. He was promoted to High A Winston-Salem in June and just took off, posting a 2.15 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 77/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 innings over the remainder of the year; he is no longer just a generic college performer. His fastball has taken a step forward, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with sink, and he's also improved his feel for his breaking balls. His curve and slider can now both miss bats, and with his above average command, he easily profiles as a #3 starter in the big leagues. Stiever is somewhat of a local guy, as he grew up just north of Milwaukee in Cedarburg, Wisconsin before attending Indiana, giving White Sox fans another reason to root for him.
- Dane Dunning (2020 Age: 25): Dunning was a late first round pick out of Florida by the Nationals in 2016, then by the offseason he was shipped to the White Sox in the Adam Eaton/Lucas Giolito trade. A skinnier guy at 6'4", he has been very effective with a 2.74 ERA through 266 minor league innings, but he also has faced durability questions throughout his career even before he succumbed to Tommy John surgery just before the 2019 season. When healthy, Dunning is about as well rounded of a pitcher as you can be, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a whole slew of secondary pitches that can move every which way, and he can make everything play up with good command and a funky delivery that throws off hitters' timing. There's really not much of a question as to whether he could fit as a #3 or a #4 starter when healthy, but durability has been the big question mark and the surgery didn't help. He'll try to work his way back in 2020 and pitchers can often come out of Tommy John surgery stronger than before, so we'll see as to whether he can reclaim his prospect status quickly or if he'll need some time. If durability problems eventually do force him to the bullpen, he could be an extremely effective long reliever.
- Konnor Pilkington (2020 Age: 22): Pilkington rode and up and down career at Mississippi State to a third round selection in 2018, and in 2019 he posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 138/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 innings at Class A Kannapolis and High A Winston-Salem. His velocity was down and his stuff was flatter in his junior year, and as a pro he's still sitting around 90 with his fastball and his curve and slider remain fairly flat. The changeup has taken a significant step forward and his command has improved a tick as well, which enabled him to dominate Class A then hold his own in High A as a 21 year old in 2019. He was also very young for a college junior when he was drafted and he'll still play all of 2020 at 22 years old, so he has time to regain the stuff that made him a potential first rounder earlier in his Mississippi State career. I don't see that as overly likely, and the lefty likely fits in as more of a #4/#5 starter or a reliever.
- Kade McClure (2020 Age: 24): McClure was a sixth round pick out of Louisville in 2017, and in 2019 he posted a 3.25 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 99/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at Class A Kannapolis and High A Winston-Salem. At 23, McClure was old for Class A, but he pitched just as well at High A and he has a good shot at carving out a role as a #5 starter. He's a really big guy, standing at 6'7", and he sits in the low 90's while adding decent secondary stuff that can play up due to his great command and the extension he gets on his pitches. Now that he's healthy after missing some time with injuries in 2018, he could move quickly and be knocking on the big league door by the end of 2020.
- Andrew Dalquist (2020 Age: 19): Dalquist was the White Sox' third round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2019, though he threw just three innings in his pro debut, albeit scoreless innings. Dalquist is a 6'1" righty with a broad skill set that stands out above any singular "wow" pitch, but I really liked him coming into the draft and I think he's a nice sleeper for the Sox. Dalquist sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets good run on the pitch, adding a curve, a slider, and a changeup. The curve is probably his better breaking ball, as it has nice shape at present and could become a plus pitch if he adds more power. He also commands everything pretty well for a teenager and has a pretty easy delivery, giving him a really nice, broad skill base from which to start working in pro ball. It might take him a little longer and he still needs to prove his durability, but I think he could be a solid mid-rotation starter.
- Matthew Thompson (2020 Age: 19-20): A potential first round pick coming out of a Houston-area high school in 2019, Thompson took a step back during his senior season and wound up signing above slot in the second round. Like Dalquist, he was barely used in his pro debut and threw two shutout innings, so we'll have to wait until 2020 to see what he can really do in pro ball. Thompson sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but with his quick arm and projectable 6'3" frame, there's almost certainly more velocity in there to unlock. His curveball looked like a plus pitch at times during his high school career, but it flattened out a bit in his senior year and it was part of the reason he slipped to the second round. He also has flashed a good changeup at times, though it's still in its early stages of development, and in general he can throw strikes when he's going right. The White Sox are going to need to refine him significantly and get him more consistent with his offspeed stuff and command, then they can hope for a velocity bump that could ultimately push him towards his ceiling of a #2 starter.
- Keep an eye on: Kyle Kubat, Bernardo Flores, Lincoln Henzman, Jimmy Lambert, Blake Battenfield, John Parke, Taylor Varnell, Davis Martin, Avery Weems
Relief Pitching
- Ian Hamilton (2020 Age: 24-25): Hamilton should be a full time major league reliever by now, but unfortunately a pair of freak injuries completely derailed his 2019 season. He hurt his shoulder in a car accident before the season, returned to post an ugly 9.92 ERA and 1.90 WHIP but with a strong 20/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 16.1 innings at AAA Charlotte, then got hit in the face by a line drive and that was it for his season. When healthy, Hamilton combines great stuff with the ability to throw consistent strikes, which enabled him to have a 1.74 ERA in the high minors in 2018. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and gets a ton of ground ball outs, and he adds a power slider that misses a lot of bats. With solid control, that helps him make the most of his two pitches, and he'll look to hit the reset button in 2020 and hopefully crack the Chicago bullpen sooner rather than later.
- Codi Heuer (2020 Age: 23-24): Heuer was a sixth round pick out of Wichita State in 2018, where he was a starter, and he continued starting in his unspectacular pro debut (4.74 ERA, 35/14 K/BB). However, the White Sox switched him to the bullpen in 2019, and the results were immediate – he posted a 2.39 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 65/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 67.2 innings at High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. His stuff took a very tangible step forward, as his fastball bumped into the mid 90's and his slider got sharper, and he was able to fill the zone consistently enough to make it play up. He probably won't end up a closer at the major league level, as his stuff is just a little light to do so, but he checks all the boxes of an effective middle reliever and could end up as a seventh or eighth inning guy in the near future.
- Zack Burdi (2020 Age: 25): Burdi was a late first round pick out of Louisville in 2016, then reached AAA less than two months after he signed. However, after rocketing up that first year, he's been stalled by Tommy John surgery as well as knee surgery and has yet to reach the majors. In 2019, before his knee surgery, Burdi had a 6.75 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and a 30/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings at Class A Kannapolis and AA Birmingham, making it a third straight lost season. There's no question about his talent – when healthy, he has an upper 90's fastball, a great slider, and a good changeup, enough to profile well as an impact reliever right now. His command can be inconsistent due to all the injuries, which has limited his effectiveness, and he'll need to get it to around average if he wants to be that impact reliever he can be. Even if it stays below average, he could still stick in the bullpen as long as he stays healthy.
- Alec Hansen (2020 Age: 25): Hansen was a serious candidate to be a top five draft pick entering his junior year at Oklahoma, but a disastrous season dropped him to the second round in 2016. He's been just as inconsistent in pro ball, posting a 2.80 ERA and a 191/51 strikeout to walk ratio in his first full season in 2017 before seeing his ERA balloon to 6.31 as he walked more than a batter per inning in 2018. This year, he transitioned to the bullpen and posted a 4.64 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 66/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings at High A Winston-Salem and AA Birmingham. He's a 6'7" righty with electric stuff, sitting in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and adding a pair of good breaking balls. However, despite figuring himself out in 2017, he's had absolutely no idea where the ball was going over the last two seasons and it's easy to lay off 99 when it's in the dirt or the other batters box. 2019 was his first year as a reliever, and the White Sox will hope that he just needed a year to figure out the new role, but he'll need to get his command together soon if he ever wants to be a big league reliever. If he can, the ceiling remains high.
- Keep an eye on: Tyler Johnson, Bennett Sousa, Karan Patel, Dan Metzdorf, Pauly Milto,
Showing posts with label Jake Burger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jake Burger. Show all posts
Friday, January 10, 2020
Tuesday, June 20, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Chicago White Sox
First 5 rounds: Jake Burger (1-11), Gavin Sheets (2-49), Luis Gonzalez (3-87), Lincoln Henzman (4-117), Tyler Johnson (5-147).
Also notable: Kade McClure (6-177), Evan Skoug (7-207), Sam Abbott (8-237), Tate Blackman (13-387)
The White Sox employed a pretty simple draft strategy here: college, college, college. Each of their first seven picks were college players, and after they selected Washington high schooler Sam Abbott in the eighth round, the South Siders drafted another 26 straight college players. Overall, 33 of their first 34 selections came out of college, but there were some other interesting patterns. From the 20th round to the 34th round, they not only selected fifteen straight college players, but all fifteen were college seniors. They then finished the draft with five of their final six picks being high schoolers. Though their first three picks were all hitters, the White Sox were pretty diverse in their selections as far as college picks go, grabbing power (Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Evan Skoug, Craig Dedelow), speed (Luis Gonzalez), relief help (Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson), starting pitching (Kade McClure), and even a water polo player (Sam Abbott) – more on that later.
1-11: 3B Jake Burger (my rank: 20)
A year after selecting power hitting college player Zack Collins in the first round, the White Sox took a similar player offensively. Jake Burger has been an absolute monster at the plate for Missouri State over the past three seasons, slashing .339/.420/.620 with 47 home runs over 176 games for the Bears. The one thing missing coming into this season was plate discipline, but he upped his walk rate to 14.1% this year while dropping his strikeout rate to 12.5%. His swing, which features a bit of an arm bar and is more based on strength than bat speed, is set up so that he needs to see the ball out of the hand to have success, and this bodes well for his future. Offensive numbers are typically inflated in the Missouri Valley Conference, where Burger plays, so don't go around thinking Burger is some generational hitter yet, but he has a great chance to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the ChiSox down the road. He'll have to be, because his defense at third base is so-so and may necessitate a move to first base, though he has gotten high marks for his work ethic.
2-49: 1B Gavin Sheets (my rank: 64)
If Burger does move to first base, that will leave the next player drafted, Gavin Sheets, in a bit of a predicament. Sheets is limited to first base defensively, but the bat has just as much upside as Burger's, even if it has a bit more risk. While Burger hit .328 with 22 home runs this year for MSU, Sheets slashed .322/.429/.634 with 20 home runs for Wake Forest. He also had a high walk rate, coming in at 15.7%, which is important because he has some adjustments he needs to make in his left handed swing. He has a lot of movement in his front shoulder both before and during his swing, causing his head to move, and and his explosive swing isn't in the zone for long. The high walk rate and low-ish strikeout rate (11.8%) bode well for his ability to make adjustments, but he does need to make them. Like Missouri State, Wake Forest tends to be a hitter-friendly environment.
3-87: CF Luis Gonzalez (my rank: 100)
Here is a third straight player from a very hitter-friendly home park, but he's not a power guy like Burger and Sheets. Instead, Gonzalez's game revolves around pretty much everything but power, and he has gotten numerous comps to Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte. Gonzalez, not related to the Luis Gonzalez who won the 2001 World Series for the Diamondbacks, slashed .361/.500/.589 with eight home runs for New Mexico, showing the potential of a future four-tool player. Heck, he even made eleven starts for the Lobos, although he wasn't nearly as good at pitching as he was at hitting (6.51 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). His 20% walk rate was among the best in college baseball, and as a left handed hitter, he has a lot going for him. The only knocks on him as a player are his small stature (skinny 6' build) and his long swing, which I believe may have difficulty translating up. He won't be a power hitter, so with his offensive value tied to getting on base, he'll need to make he can either catch up to pro pitching with his current swing or shorten it significantly.
4-117: RHP Lincoln Henzman (unranked)
Besides having a great reliever name, Lincoln Henzman took a big step forward this year as Louisville's closer, putting up a 1.72 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP through 26 appearances. Ironically, the man who Henzman replaced as closer, Zack Burdi, was drafted in the first round by the White Sox last year. He won't wow you with his stuff, coming in with a low to mid 90's sinker and a decent slider/changeup combination, but he's a competent reliever who could be the first player from this White Sox draft class to reach the majors. One drawback of him already being a reliever, though, is that his stuff has presumably already had that "jump forward" that you get when converting from the rotation, though he does have some projection left at 6'2".
5-147: RHP Tyler Johnson (my rank: 111)
The White Sox made it back-to-back relievers here, with Tyler Johnson having served as South Carolina's closer for the past two seasons. He was great in 2016 (2.42 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 59/8 K/BB), but he missed time to arm troubles this year and his command wasn't quite as good when he was on the mound (2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB). Johnson stands 6'2" but his mid to upper 90's fastball can blow college hitters away, though he needs to work on adding an effective secondary pitch. He has toyed with some breaking balls, but he's mostly relied on pushing his fastball up to 100 MPH to get hitters out in the SEC rather than buckling knees with a slider or curve. He's not presently ready to pitch in the majors, but if he can make adjustments quickly in pro ball, it could be an interesting race to see if he can beat Henzman to Chicago.
7-207: C/1B Evan Skoug (my rank: 74)
Because Skoug fell to the seventh round, signability may become an issue even though he's a college junior. He entered the season on the outskirts of the first round discussion after slashing .301/.390/.502 with nine home runs as a sophomore at TCU, but his 16.2% strikeout rate scared off some evaluators and contact was seen as a red flag by most. Then he slumped horribly to begin the season before a second half surge that can give the observer numerous takeaways. Overall, he slashed .272/.380/.553 with 20 home runs, but his strikeout rate ballooned to a whopping 30.5%. His position is unclear at the moment, as he is a catcher for the Horned Frogs and is working extremely hard to remain a catcher in pro ball, but his defense is so-so at the moment and may ultimately force him to first base, putting more pressure on his bat. Offensively, Skoug has big league power, but the strikeout rate is a serious concern, and he may not be able to get to it in the majors. Scouts have lauded his work ethic and leadership skills, so that's a plus.
Others: 6th rounder Kade McClure is a massive, 6'7" right hander out of Louisville, one who has had a solid career for the Cardinals over three years (21-4, 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 216/69 K/BB). He sits in the low 90's with decent offspeed stuff, so he projects more as a back-end starter or long reliever than an impact guy. 8th rounder Sam Abbott is interesting not only because he was the only high schooler taken by the White Sox in the first 34 rounds, but also because he is one of the best water polo players in the country. At Curtis HS in Washington, he was a three time state MVP and helped the team to two state championship. All I have on him as a baseball player is that he's a power hitting first baseman. 9th rounder Craig Dedelow brings more college power to the field, having slashed .258/.336/.563 with 19 home runs for Indiana this year. 13th rounder Tate Blackman was at the center of Ole Miss' offense this year, slashing .302/.420/.525 with nine home runs to go along with nine stolen bases. There's also 14th rounder Alex Destino, a centerpiece of the South Carolina offense during his career there, and 16th rounder Logan Taylor, the third Louisville Cardinal drafted by the White Sox this year.
Also notable: Kade McClure (6-177), Evan Skoug (7-207), Sam Abbott (8-237), Tate Blackman (13-387)
The White Sox employed a pretty simple draft strategy here: college, college, college. Each of their first seven picks were college players, and after they selected Washington high schooler Sam Abbott in the eighth round, the South Siders drafted another 26 straight college players. Overall, 33 of their first 34 selections came out of college, but there were some other interesting patterns. From the 20th round to the 34th round, they not only selected fifteen straight college players, but all fifteen were college seniors. They then finished the draft with five of their final six picks being high schoolers. Though their first three picks were all hitters, the White Sox were pretty diverse in their selections as far as college picks go, grabbing power (Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Evan Skoug, Craig Dedelow), speed (Luis Gonzalez), relief help (Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson), starting pitching (Kade McClure), and even a water polo player (Sam Abbott) – more on that later.
1-11: 3B Jake Burger (my rank: 20)
A year after selecting power hitting college player Zack Collins in the first round, the White Sox took a similar player offensively. Jake Burger has been an absolute monster at the plate for Missouri State over the past three seasons, slashing .339/.420/.620 with 47 home runs over 176 games for the Bears. The one thing missing coming into this season was plate discipline, but he upped his walk rate to 14.1% this year while dropping his strikeout rate to 12.5%. His swing, which features a bit of an arm bar and is more based on strength than bat speed, is set up so that he needs to see the ball out of the hand to have success, and this bodes well for his future. Offensive numbers are typically inflated in the Missouri Valley Conference, where Burger plays, so don't go around thinking Burger is some generational hitter yet, but he has a great chance to be a middle-of-the-order bat for the ChiSox down the road. He'll have to be, because his defense at third base is so-so and may necessitate a move to first base, though he has gotten high marks for his work ethic.
2-49: 1B Gavin Sheets (my rank: 64)
If Burger does move to first base, that will leave the next player drafted, Gavin Sheets, in a bit of a predicament. Sheets is limited to first base defensively, but the bat has just as much upside as Burger's, even if it has a bit more risk. While Burger hit .328 with 22 home runs this year for MSU, Sheets slashed .322/.429/.634 with 20 home runs for Wake Forest. He also had a high walk rate, coming in at 15.7%, which is important because he has some adjustments he needs to make in his left handed swing. He has a lot of movement in his front shoulder both before and during his swing, causing his head to move, and and his explosive swing isn't in the zone for long. The high walk rate and low-ish strikeout rate (11.8%) bode well for his ability to make adjustments, but he does need to make them. Like Missouri State, Wake Forest tends to be a hitter-friendly environment.
3-87: CF Luis Gonzalez (my rank: 100)
Here is a third straight player from a very hitter-friendly home park, but he's not a power guy like Burger and Sheets. Instead, Gonzalez's game revolves around pretty much everything but power, and he has gotten numerous comps to Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte. Gonzalez, not related to the Luis Gonzalez who won the 2001 World Series for the Diamondbacks, slashed .361/.500/.589 with eight home runs for New Mexico, showing the potential of a future four-tool player. Heck, he even made eleven starts for the Lobos, although he wasn't nearly as good at pitching as he was at hitting (6.51 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). His 20% walk rate was among the best in college baseball, and as a left handed hitter, he has a lot going for him. The only knocks on him as a player are his small stature (skinny 6' build) and his long swing, which I believe may have difficulty translating up. He won't be a power hitter, so with his offensive value tied to getting on base, he'll need to make he can either catch up to pro pitching with his current swing or shorten it significantly.
4-117: RHP Lincoln Henzman (unranked)
Besides having a great reliever name, Lincoln Henzman took a big step forward this year as Louisville's closer, putting up a 1.72 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP through 26 appearances. Ironically, the man who Henzman replaced as closer, Zack Burdi, was drafted in the first round by the White Sox last year. He won't wow you with his stuff, coming in with a low to mid 90's sinker and a decent slider/changeup combination, but he's a competent reliever who could be the first player from this White Sox draft class to reach the majors. One drawback of him already being a reliever, though, is that his stuff has presumably already had that "jump forward" that you get when converting from the rotation, though he does have some projection left at 6'2".
5-147: RHP Tyler Johnson (my rank: 111)
The White Sox made it back-to-back relievers here, with Tyler Johnson having served as South Carolina's closer for the past two seasons. He was great in 2016 (2.42 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 59/8 K/BB), but he missed time to arm troubles this year and his command wasn't quite as good when he was on the mound (2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB). Johnson stands 6'2" but his mid to upper 90's fastball can blow college hitters away, though he needs to work on adding an effective secondary pitch. He has toyed with some breaking balls, but he's mostly relied on pushing his fastball up to 100 MPH to get hitters out in the SEC rather than buckling knees with a slider or curve. He's not presently ready to pitch in the majors, but if he can make adjustments quickly in pro ball, it could be an interesting race to see if he can beat Henzman to Chicago.
7-207: C/1B Evan Skoug (my rank: 74)
Because Skoug fell to the seventh round, signability may become an issue even though he's a college junior. He entered the season on the outskirts of the first round discussion after slashing .301/.390/.502 with nine home runs as a sophomore at TCU, but his 16.2% strikeout rate scared off some evaluators and contact was seen as a red flag by most. Then he slumped horribly to begin the season before a second half surge that can give the observer numerous takeaways. Overall, he slashed .272/.380/.553 with 20 home runs, but his strikeout rate ballooned to a whopping 30.5%. His position is unclear at the moment, as he is a catcher for the Horned Frogs and is working extremely hard to remain a catcher in pro ball, but his defense is so-so at the moment and may ultimately force him to first base, putting more pressure on his bat. Offensively, Skoug has big league power, but the strikeout rate is a serious concern, and he may not be able to get to it in the majors. Scouts have lauded his work ethic and leadership skills, so that's a plus.
Others: 6th rounder Kade McClure is a massive, 6'7" right hander out of Louisville, one who has had a solid career for the Cardinals over three years (21-4, 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 216/69 K/BB). He sits in the low 90's with decent offspeed stuff, so he projects more as a back-end starter or long reliever than an impact guy. 8th rounder Sam Abbott is interesting not only because he was the only high schooler taken by the White Sox in the first 34 rounds, but also because he is one of the best water polo players in the country. At Curtis HS in Washington, he was a three time state MVP and helped the team to two state championship. All I have on him as a baseball player is that he's a power hitting first baseman. 9th rounder Craig Dedelow brings more college power to the field, having slashed .258/.336/.563 with 19 home runs for Indiana this year. 13th rounder Tate Blackman was at the center of Ole Miss' offense this year, slashing .302/.420/.525 with nine home runs to go along with nine stolen bases. There's also 14th rounder Alex Destino, a centerpiece of the South Carolina offense during his career there, and 16th rounder Logan Taylor, the third Louisville Cardinal drafted by the White Sox this year.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Power Hitters
First Tier: Brendan McKay, Adam Haseley, Pavin Smith, Jeren Kendall
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
Second Tier: Jake Burger, Brent Rooker, Drew Ellis
Third Tier: J.J. Matijevic, Gavin Sheets, Greg Deichmann, Evan Skoug
Others: Matt Whatley, Kevin Smith, Daulton Varsho, Joe Dunand, J.J. Schwarz
It's no secret that teams covet power, and what better place to find it than on the proven grounds of the NCAA? These guys can hit the ball a mile, and they've at least been tested against higher level pitching, unlike their high school counterparts.
Tier I (McKay, Haseley, Smith, Kendall)
Brendan McKay the pitcher's alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter, has a larger gap between his floor and ceiling, as could hit 20-30 home runs per season with on-base percentages approaching .400. He's not the most powerful hitter in this class, but his combination of power and hit is as good as anybody's. Adam Haseley and Pavin Smith may hit next to each other in the UVA lineup, but they are very different players (keep in mind that those draft previews are almost two months old). Neither strike out much at all, Smith even less so than Haseley, and Smith is generally thought of as having more power potential and being a more polished bat. However, Haseley gets the edge on defense, as he should be an average center fielder or an above average right fielder, while Smith is confined to first base. Personally, I'm a bigger fan of Haseley, because I think he has small issues with his swing that could be fixed easily, pay huge dividends, and ultimately lead to him being a better hitter than Smith, defense aside. Both project to go in the first half of the first round. Vanderbilt's Jeren Kendall is essentially a smaller, quicker Adam Haseley with much more swing and miss. Kendall is an even better defender than Haseley, as he will no doubt stick in center field and has the arm to match. He also has a quicker swing that generates the same amount of, if not more, power despite his smaller frame (he stands at just 5'10", 180 lbs). Though most of his game grades out as better than Haseley's, he has one major flaw that ultimately gives Haseley the edge in my book; while Haseley struck out in just 7.8% of his plate appearances, Kendall struck out at an alarming 24.7% rate. He is much less polished than Haseley, and his quick swing will need a lot of refinement to keep pro pitchers from blowing their stuff by him.
Tier II (Burger, Rooker, Ellis)
Jake Burger stands out as the clear leader in this tier, having put up a monster campaign for Missouri State (.333/.448/.663, 22 HR), albeit in a lighter conference that tends to inflate hitting numbers. He has a long swing that gives slightly higher strikeout rates than you'd like to see in a mid-major conference (12.1%), but he also walked in 14.1% of his plate appearances, which helps offset that. I also like that though his swing is long and unorthodox, he keeps it in the zone for a long time. On defense, he's nothing special at third base and may have to move to first base, though he is said to be working very hard to keep that from happening. He's a higher risk than the guys in Tier I, but provides just as much upside. Next up is Brent Rooker, whose 2017 statistics will keep any other stats in this article from being impressive. Despite playing in the SEC, college baseball's toughest conference to hit in, he put up video game numbers for Mississippi State, slashing .395/.498/.827 with 30 doubles, three triples, 23 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 65 games. Keeping with the context that this was in the SEC against the likes of Vanderbilt, Florida, LSU, you name it, it may have been college baseball's greatest offensive season of the BBCOR era. Rooker generates his power from an extremely powerful right handed swing, one that reminds me of prep star Austin Beck, as he generates plus bat speed. So far, he sounds like a first overall pick, but let me temper that real quick. Rooker is a redshirt junior, and turns 23 in November, so he's a year older than the rest of the guys on this list (except Greg Deichmann in Tier III). Additionally, he struck out in 17.9% of his plate appearances this year (though he did walk in 15%), and he grades out as a slightly below average left fielder, so he doesn't provide much defensive value. In my opinion, the bat will carry him, and he could make teams look foolish if he falls out of the supplemental round. After Rooker, we have another big performer in Louisville's Drew Ellis, and while Rooker will make his numbers look rather pedestrian, they were pretty darn impressive. Playing in the ACC, college baseball's second toughest conference after the SEC, McKay's teammate slashed .362/.453/.695 with 17 home runs and a lower strikeout rate (14%) than Rooker. The redshirt sophomore, whose age is in line with the typical college junior and is therefore a year younger than Rooker, holds more defensive value than his Mississippi State counterpart as a competent third baseman. His swing is very different though, as he likes to keep his hands very close to his body and use his natural torque to generate power. His mechanics are fairly similar to Mike Trout's, but don't get too excited because Trout has significantly more bat speed and has a cleaner swing path, as Ellis' uppercut means he is in and out of the zone fairly quickly.
Tier III (Matijevic, Sheets, Deichmann, Skoug)
The top two hitters in this tier, Arizona's J.J. Matijevic and Wake Forest's Gavin Sheets, have fairly similar offensive outlooks but get to their power in different ways. Matijevic, whose name I have a much easier time trying to spell than I expected when I first saw it, has swing mechanics similar to prep hitter Brady McConnell in that they both contract and explode on pitches. Meanwhile, Sheets generates his big time power from his brute strength and powerful swing, which will need to be cleaned up to hit at the next level. While Matijevic's swing is more polished, Sheets has the more polished approach, crushing Matijevic in walk rate 15.7% to 8.4% and also holding the better strikeout rate at 11.8% to 13.8%. Both are limited to first base defensively, but Matijevic has one last plus in that he's arguably this class's strongest Cape Cod League performer, having slashed .349/.391/.507 with six home runs over 61 games in two seasons. Ultimately, this gives Matijevic the edge for me. Louisiana State's Greg Deichmann is another guy that's a little old for the class, having turned 22 in May, but there is a lot to like. He has a cleaner swing than Matijevic and Sheets, and slashed .322/.430/.614 with 19 home runs in a tough SEC. His 17.8% strikeout rate is a little high for a senior-aged player, but he's a polished hitter and reportedly is a strong leader. He's not a defensive whiz, but he can perform adequately in a corner outfield spot, unlike the previous two guys. Lastly, we have Evan Skoug, the TCU catcher with a lot to like and a lot to dislike. On the positive side, he has a very strong bat which caught fire in the second half, he's an extremely hard worker who gets plus marks for his makeup and leadership skills all around, and he's a catcher. On the negative side, he struggled immensely in the first half of the season, may have to move off catcher because of his so-so defensive skills, and he strikes out a ton, including a career high 29.8% in 2017. Out of the four, Deichmann is the best hitter, Skoug provides the most defensive value (as of now), and Matijevic and Sheets have the most projection at the plate.
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