Angels Continue to Build with Addition of Zack Cozart

Zack Cozart: 24 HR, .297/.385/.548, 3 SB, 141 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR
Three Years, $38 million

If there was any doubt they were going for a division crown after the signing of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have alleviated it with the trade for Ian Kinsler and the signing of Zack Cozart. They probably won't catch the Astros, but their is always a chance and if not, the Angels are in really good position for a Wild Card spot. After years of decency, posting fWAR's between 1.2 and 2.5 every year from 2012-2016, Cozart broke out in a big way in 2017 by slashing .297/.385/.548 with 24 home runs, a 141 wRC+, and 5.0 fWAR over 122 games. His .312 BABIP (versus a .280 career mark) suggests that luck may have played a part in his breakout, but not by much, and his batted ball data supports his breakout being real. His 30.8% hard-hit rate was the second highest of his career (after the 31.2% rate in 2016), while his 42.3% fly ball rate was a career high and his 38.2% ground ball rate was a career low. Cozart also brings defensive value, and though he'll move from shortstop to third base in deference to wizard Andrelton Simmons, it's a big upgrade in the field for the Halos. Now with Simmons, Cozart, Kinsler, Mike Trout, and Martin Maldonado in the field, the Angels will boast one of baseball's best defenses with the likelihood to bring home multiple Gold Gloves. For his career, the Ole Miss alumnus has 82 home runs, a .254/.305/.411 slash line, and 14.9 fWAR over 743 games.

Hot Stove Preview: Free Agent Catchers and Infielders

Catchers

This year's catching crop has a few good names, with a few starter-quality guys out there, though the market overall is fairly shallow. If a team can't get its hands on Lucroy, Castillo, Avila, or Iannetta, chances are they'll have to look elsewhere for a quality backstop.

1. Jonathan Lucroy (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 31-32)

2017 Stats: 6 HR, 40 RBI, .265 AVG, 1 SB, 82 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

Jonathan Lucroy may be coming off a disaster of a season, one in which he slashed .265/.345/.371 with just six home runs in 123 games, but he is still the top catcher on the market. Just one year ago, Lucroy slashed .292/.355/.500 with 24 home runs in 142 games for the Brewers and Rangers, posting a 123 wRC+ and racking up 4.6 fWAR. For a catcher, that is the kind of production you dream about. However, he was completely useless with the bat with the Rangers this year, slashing just .242/.297/.338 with four home runs in 77 games before his trade this year, good for a 66 wRC+, but his bat picked up after a trade to Colorado, as he slashed .310/.429/.437 with a pair of home runs in 46 games. The surge wasn't just due to the Coors Field effect, as his 112 wRC+, which is ballpark adjusted, was well above the league average of 100. One positive sign about his struggles this year was his ground ball rate, which skyrocketed to 53.5% this year after sitting at 37.2% last year. If he can get that rate back where it needs to be and get the ball in the air more, Lucroy could easily get back his status as one of the top catchers in the game. For his career, the 31 year old former Louisiana Ragin' Cajun has 96 home runs, a .281/.343/.433 slash line, and 22.1 fWAR over 975 games.

2. Welington Castillo (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 20 HR, 53 RBI, .282 AVG, 0 SB, 113 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Welington Castillo has quietly been a very solid catcher, racking up at least 1.6 fWAR in four of the past five seasons and reaching 2.7 in 2017. Despite missing time to injury, he still blasted 20 home runs and slashed .282/.323/.490 in 96 games, good for a 113 wRC+. Some of that power may have been a product of Camden Yards, but like Lucroy, Castillo provides value both at the plate and behind it, and that is hard to find these days. He's not as proven as Lucroy at the same age, but he is a playoff-caliber backstop. For his career, the 30 year old Dominican has 80 home runs, a .259/.319/.428 slash line, and 12.4 fWAR over 605 games.

3. Alex Avila (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 14 HR, 49 RBI, .264 AVG, 0 SB, 124 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

Alex Avila is better than you think he is. He may have only been nominally average in the power, batting average, and defense departments, but he walked 62 times this year (16.5% of his plate appearances) to push his on-base percentage to an excellent .387. He is ranked below Castillo due to inconsistent production over the years (fewer than 1.2 fWAR three times in four years from 2013-2016), but his solid 2017 should not be overlooked. A career high .382 BABIP might have helped, but his 38.5% ground ball rate was the second lowest of his career and his 48.7% hard-hit rate was the highest, so don't be surprised if he can maintain this production next year. Even if he can't, he at least provides value through his walks. For his career, the 30 year old out of the University of Alabama has 87 home runs, a .243/.351/.401 line, and 14.4 fWAR over 852 games.

Others: Chris Iannetta (17 HR, .254/.354/.511, 120 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR), Nick Hundley (9 HR, .244/.272/.418, 78 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR), Rene Rivera (10 HR, .252/.305/.431, 91 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR)

First Basemen

The first base crop is deep this year, with no one player standing out but many guys available who can provide real value. In fact, most of the top guys are pretty evenly matched, though Hosmer will likely (and illogically) get the largest contract by far. In that sense, he'll likely provide the least value per dollar, and the guys in slots 2-4 might be better bargains.

1. Eric Hosmer (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 28)

2017 Stats: 25 HR, 94 RBI, .318 AVG, 6 SB, 135 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR

Eric Hosmer is a moderately overrated player, but he's still the best available at first base. A year after playing so poorly that he posted a negative fWAR of -0.1 (goes to show that 104 RBI means nothing), Hosmer had a career year in 2017, slashing .318/.385/.498 with 25 home runs, a 135 wRC+, and a career-best 4.1 fWAR. For the first time in his career, he posted All-Star level production, though it may have been fueled in part by a career-high .351 BABIP. I certainly would not give him the $100 million he very well may get, as he is essentially a just-above-league-average hitter playing poor defense at an unimportant position. He's got the star power, which is great if you want to draw fans, but he's basically a 2-3 win player that will come at the price of a 5 win player. That said, he'll be 28 for all of 2018 and has missed a total of just eight games over the past three seasons, and he's a solid player to have in the lineup. For his career, the South Florida native has 127 home runs, a .284/.342/.439 slash line, and 9.9 fWAR over 1048 games.

2. Carlos Santana (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 23 HR, 79 RBI, .259 AVG, 5 SB, 117 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Carlos Santana isn't a star, but he's a solid hitter who has posted above-league-average production in each of his eight MLB seasons and has been worth at least 2.1 fWAR in each of the past seven seasons despite mediocre defense. This past season was just about in line with his career norms, as he slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs, a 117 wRC+, and 3.0 fWAR, fueled by an enviable combination of power and patience. He's actually been such a consistently patient hitter that his on-base percentage has remained between .351 and .377 in each of the past seven seasons, as his 88 walks this year were actually a career low. Combine that with at least 18 home runs in each of those seven seasons, and you have a player who provides value even without good defense. Hosmer gets the edge due to being three and a half years younger, but Santana is the better bargain. For his career, the 31 year old Dominican has 174 home runs, a .249/.365/.445 slash line, and 23 fWAR over 1116 games.

3. Logan Morrison (Previous Team: Rays. 2018 Age: 30)

2017 Stats: 38 HR, 85 RBI, .246 AVG, 2 SB, 130 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR

LoMo had a huge power breakout in 2017, smashing 38 home runs in 149 games while slashing .246/.353/.516 while returning 3.3 fWAR, the latter of which is triple his previous career high. Like most guys, he did this through a reduction in his ground ball rate (career low 33.3%) as well as an increase in his hard-hit rate (career high 37.4%). Even if without looking at those numbers, we can't chalk the season up to BABIP luck anyways, as he hit just .268 on balls in play. He ranks below Hosmer and Santana due to a lack of a track record, but his 2017 season was very solid and I see no reason why he can't repeat it next year, and likely for a bargain price. For his career, Morrison has 122 home runs, a .245/.330/.433 slash line, and 5.6 fWAR over 864 games.

4. Yonder Alonso (Previous Team: Mariners. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 28 HR, 67 RBI, .266 AVG, 2 SB, 132 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR

Like Morrison, Yonder Alonso had a huge power breakout in 2017 due to a decrease in his ground ball rate (career low 33.9%). Alonso had never accumulated more than 1.1 fWAR in a season, and last year he slashed just .253/.316/.367 with seven home runs, but this year was different. Over 142 games, he slashed .266/.365/.501 with 28 home runs and a career high 36% hard hit rate. He has played his whole career in the pitchers' parks of San Diego (2012-2015), Oakland (2016-2017), and Seattle (2017), so his numbers are more valuable than you might realize, and he could be a big presence in a batting order somewhere next year. For his career, the 30 year old former Miami Hurricane has 67 home runs, a .268/.340/.407 slash line, and 5.7 fWAR over 806 games.

Others: Lucas Duda (30 HR, .217/.322/.496, 113 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR), Mitch Moreland (22 HR, .246/.326/.443, 98 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR), Mark Reynolds (30 HR, .267/.352/.487, 104 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR)

Second Basemen

There is a thin market for second basemen, led by Neil Walker and a pair of veterans, but if a contending team is looking for a starter, Walker is really the only option. After him, Brandon Phillips and Chase Utley are a pair of veterans who can be solid backups, and then the market drops off completely.

1. Neil Walker (Previous Team: Brewers. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 14 HR, 49 RBI, .265 AVG, 0 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR

If you are looking for a second baseman in the free agent market, Neil Walker is probably the guy you want as the only starter-quality player available. Over 111 games this year, he slashed a respectable .265/.362/.439 with 14 home runs, enough for 2.1 fWAR. Those numbers don't jump off the page at you, but it is solid production at an important position. Especially nice was his 77/55 strikeout to walk ratio (17.2% to 12.3%), and with his adequate defense, he can certainly provide at least moderate value. One thing to be weary about is the fact that he has been limited to under 120 games in back to back seasons, due to back surgery in 2016 and hamstring issues in 2017. He turned 32 in September, so he is not old but is likely past his prime. For his career, the Pittsburgh native has 130 home runs, a .272/.341/.437 slash line, and 21.1 fWAR over 1060 games.

2. Brandon Phillips (Previous Team: Angels. 2018 Age: 36-37)

2017 Stats: 13 HR, 60 RBI, .285 AVG, 11 SB, 93 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Brandon Phillips isn't what he used to be, but he still provides value on both sides of the ball and can be a solid back-up or third-division starter even as he turns 37 in June. This past year, he slashed .285/.319/.416 with 13 home runs over 144 games, though I expect those numbers to tail off slightly this year. His power is beginning to fade, and he doesn't provide much in the way of on-base ability, but at the very least, he's a positive presence in the clubhouse. For his career, the Atlanta native has 210 home runs, a .275/.320/.421 slash line, and 32.3 fWAR over 1893 games.

3. Chase Utley (Previous Team: Dodgers 2018 Age: 39)

2017 Stats: 8 HR, 34 RBI, .236 AVG, 6 SB, 96 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR

At this point, the soon-to-be 39 year old Chase Utley is no longer a starter, but he can be a quality back-up on any team. His numbers this past season look poor on the surface (.236/.324/.405, 8 HR), but his 96 wRC+ shows that he was actually just below league average, and with 1.3 fWAR, he provided at least some value. This was due to his relatively high walk rate (9.1%), solid isolated power, and good base running. Like Phillips, at the very least, Utley can be a veteran clubhouse presence. For his career, the UCLA alumnus has 258 home runs, a .276/.359/.469 slash line, and 64.5 fWAR over 1850 games.

Others: Danny Espinosa (6 HR, .173/.245/.278, 41 wRC+, -1.0 fWAR), Darwin Barney (6 HR, .232/.275/.327, 58 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR), Cliff Pennington (3 HR, .253/.306/.330, 73 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR)

Shortstop

Like second base, the shortstop market isn't particularly deep, but Zack Cozart is a great option at the top. Behind him, there are a few players who could start for rebuilding teams, but none you'd want to carry into the playoffs as a starter. However, Alcides Escobar, Jose Reyes, and Erick Aybar could be solid options as utility guys for contending teams.

1. Zack Cozart (Previous Team: Reds. 2018 Age: 32-33)

2017 Stats: 24 HR, 63 RBI, .297 AVG, 3 SB, 141 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR

Zack Cozart may be one of the most attractive pieces on the market due to his lack of a qualifying offer as well as his high value on both sides of the ball. As a hitter, he had a breakout year in 2017 (you guessed it, with a career low 38.2% ground ball rate), slashing .297/.385/.548 with 24 home runs for the Reds, making his first All Star team and racking up 5.0 fWAR. On defense, he plays shortstop, a premium position, and plays it well. The only two things to be weary of for Cozart are his lack sustained success over multiple seasons (previous career high in fWAR was 2.5 in 2016) and his age, as he turns 33 in August. Still, any team looking for a shortstop should look at Cozart first, as he could be a bargain. For his career, the Memphis native out of Ole Miss has 82 home runs, a .254/.305/.411 slash line, and 14.9 fWAR over 743 games.

2. Alcides Escobar (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 31)

2017 Stats: 6 HR, 54 RBI, .250 AVG, 4 SB, 62 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR

Escobar provides no value with his bat, having never posted a wRC+ above 97 and holding a career mark of 72, but he provides just enough value on defense to be useful as a third division starter or a good utility man. Despite slashing just .250/.272/.357 with six home runs and a 62 wRC+ this year, he posted a 1.9 UZR, which isn't great but is enough at a tough position like shortstop. He also set a career high with 36 doubles, which isn't bad for a guy with virtually no power. For his career, the 30 year old Venezuelan has 37 home runs, a .260/.294/.346 slash line, 166 stolen bases, and 11.6 fWAR over 1297 games.

3. Jose Reyes (Previous Team: Mets. 2018 Age: 34-35)

2017 Stats: 15 HR, 58 RBI, .246 AVG, 24 SB, 94 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR

Jose Reyes may not be what he used to be, but the 34 year old has some value left in him. In 145 games for the Mets this year, he slashed ..246/.315/.413 with 15 home runs and 24 stolen bases, which aren't great numbers but were enough to push him to 2.0 fWAR, or about the average for a decent starter. His 94 wRC+ indicated that he wasn't quite league average at the plate, but he was close enough that his positional value at shortstop was enough to make him a valuable player. Don't expect him to be the first division starter or leadoff man he once was, but Reyes can be a good utility guy capable of taking over a starting job from an injured player or on a third division team. For his career, the Dominican has 141 home runs, a .286/.337/.430 line, 512 stolen bases, and 44.4 fWAR over 1767 games.

Others: Erick Aybar (7 HR, .234/.300/.348, 74 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR), J.J. Hardy (4 HR, .217/.255/.323, 50 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR), Stephen Drew (1 HR, .253/.302/.358, 70 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR)

Third Basemen

Third base appears deep, especially compared to second base and shortstop, but third base is also the deepest position in baseball as it is, especially at the top. With Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Justin Turner, etc. out there putting up huge numbers, it hasn't been all that hard to find a slugging third baseman in recent years. That said, the three guys at the top of this list are virtually equal in the value they'll likely provide, all looking like above average starters. However, Todd Frazier and Mike Moustakas could cost more, so Eduardo Nunez would likely be the best bargain. After those three, Yunel Escobar can be a mediocre starter or a solid backup, and Trevor Plouffe and Jhonny Peralta have a lot to prove after down years and will likely get minor league deals.

1. Todd Frazier (Previous Team: Yankees. 2018 Age: 32)

2017 Stats: 27 HR, 76 RBI, .213 AVG, 4 SB, 108 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR

Todd Frazier is an interesting case. He set a career low in batting average at .213, but also set a career high in on-base percentage at .344 due to a 14.4% walk rate. He was able to dramatically increase that walk rate by slashing his out-of-zone swing percentage to 25% while also being more patient in the zone, swinging at a career-low 60.2% of strikes. After six years of keeping his overall swing percentage between 46.7% and 52.9%, he cut it to 40.2% in 2017, and it paid off in the walk rate. He also clubbed 27 home runs, but with just 19 doubles and one triple, his slugging percentage sat at .428. His batting averages will always be so low that his newfound patience at the plate will never give him a high on-base percentage, and his power isn't excellent, but with solid defense he can be a good third baseman on any team. For his career, the Rutgers alumnus has 175 home runs, a .245/.321/.459 slash line, and 21.2 fWAR over 938 games.

2. Mike Moustakas (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 29)

2017 Stats: 38 HR, 85 RBI, .272 AVG, 0 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR

Mike Moustakas is a solid above-average bat, but don't look into the 38 home runs and think you have a star. His .272/.314/.521 slash line looks good, especially that .521 slugging percentage, but his 5.7% walk rate suppressed his on-base percentage to the point where his 114 wRC+ was merely good, not great, in what was supposedly a career year. He'll be a very good third baseman for whatever team picks him up, especially considering that at age 29, he is one of the younger available free agents, but he'll likely cost more than he is worth. For his career, the SoCal native has 119 home runs, a .251/.305/.425 slash line, and 12.1 fWAR over 836 games.

3. Eduardo Nunez (Previous Team: Red Sox. 2018 Age: 30-31)

2017 Stats: 12 HR, 58 RBI, .313 AVG, 24 SB, 112 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR

Eduardo Nunez is ranked just below Moustakas and Frazier here, but he'll cost significantly less money and could be just as good. Last year, he quietly slashed .313/.341/.460 with 12 home runs and 24 stolen bases, racking up just as much fWAR (2.2) as Moustakas and his 38 home runs. He actually had a lower walk rate (3.7%) than Moose, but he made up for it with more speed (24 stolen bases), batting average (and hence on-base percentage), and positional flexibility (he can also play second base, shortstop, and the outfield). 2017 was his third straight season with above-league-average offensive production (by wRC+), and he could be one of the better bargains on the market. For his career, the 30 year old Dominican has 46 home runs, a .282/.320/.415 slash line, 129 stolen bases, and 4.2 fWAR over 669 games (though he has 4.8 fWAR over the past two seasons).

Others: Yunel Escobar (7 HR, .274/.333/.397, 100 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR), Trevor Plouffe (9 HR, .198/.272/.318, 58 wRC+, -1.2 fWAR), Jhonny Peralta (0 HR, .204/.259/.204, 27 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR)

Tracking Awards: 4/16

If the Season Ended Today (BEWARE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE)

AL MVP: Francisco Lindor (CLE): 4 HR, 8 RBI, .349 AVG, 1 SB, 218 wRC+.

Lindor is off to a torrid start, slashing .349/.431/.721 through 11 games with eight of his fifteen hits going for extra bases. He actually started the season with back to back hitless games, meaning he is slashing .405/.465/.838 with four home runs over his last nine games. His biggest game came on April 5th in Texas, when he blasted two home runs while adding a single and a walk and driving in five runs. Since that game, he's gotten a hit in each game and is showing no signs of slowing down.

NL MVP: Zack Cozart (CIN): 1 HR, 7 RBI, .485 AVG, 1 SB, 250 wRC+.

Across the state of Ohio, the Reds have surprised everybody by starting the season 8-4 through twelve games. They won't keep this pace up, but so far, Zack Cozart has been a huge part of making this team go. Appearing in ten of the twelve games, he is leading the major leagues with a .485 batting average as part of an insane .485/.538/.818 slash line, good for a 250 wRC+, the second highest in baseball behind only Eric Thames' 255. Cozart has picked up a hit in each game this season, and he has gotten on base at least twice in eight of his ten games. He may lack home run power, but he has spread his offense around by knocking ten singles, two doubles, three triples, and one home run, with the three triples being the most in the entire MLB.

AL Cy Young: James Paxton (SEA): 2-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 22/4 K/BB.

It came down to Paxton and Ervin Santana, but Paxton gets the edge due to the quality of competition he has faced. It's not just that he's the only pitcher yet to allow a run, it's who he has done it against. On April 5th, he started in Houston against arguably baseball's deepest offense, the Houston Astros. No worries, as he tossed six shutout innings on two hits and one walk, striking out five. Five days later, he squared up against that same potent Houston offense, and was even better: over seven shutout innings, he allowed just four hits and two walks while striking out eight. Against another strong offense, that of the Texas Rangers, on April 15th, it was more of the same: over eight shutout innings, he gave up just two hits and one walk while striking out nine. Overall, he has struck out 22 batters over 21 innings while allowing just 12 base runners and no runs. Do not underestimate a fully healthy James Paxton.

NL Cy Young: Noah Syndergaard (NYM): 1-0, 0.95 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 20/0 K/BB.

It seemed like he was a top prospect forever, and suddenly, since mid-2015, Noah Syndergaard has been one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball. The flame-throwing right hander has met every lofty expectation so far this season. He is yet to allow a walk in 19 inning this season, with just two runs crossing the plate. He tossed six shutout innings against the Braves on Opening Day, allowing five hits and striking out seven. He followed that up with back to back strong starts against the Marlins, allowing one earned run in each while going seven and six innings, respectively. Overall, he has a 0.95 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a beautiful 20/0 strikeout to walk ratio in 19 innings. Among MLB pitchers with more than 12 innings pitched this season, only he and Felix Hernandez (18.1 IP) are yet to allow a walk. 

AL Rookie of the Year: Mitch Haniger (SEA): 3 HR, 7 RBI, .292 AVG, 2 SB, 173 wRC+.

Mitch Haniger had a huge breakout season in the high minors in 2015, then reached the majors and slashed a respectable, if not spectacular, .229/.309/.404 over 34 games. He retains rookie eligibility in 2017, an he has been excellent through 12 games, slashing .292/.393/.542 with three home runs, three doubles, and even a pair of stolen bases for the Mariners. Known more for his power than for his on-base abilities, he has gotten on base in each of his twelve games this season and is currently riding a nine game hitting streak, over which he is slashing .361/.439/.667.

NL Rookie of the Year: Amir Garrett (CIN): 2-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 9/2 K/BB.

Zack Cozart hasn't been the only pleasant surprise in Cincinnati this year. Amir Garrett, the former NCAA basketball star over at St. John's, has gained steam as a prospect every year and got his chance out of spring training this year. He had to make his MLB debut against a tough Cardinals lineup in St. Louis, but he dominated them by tossing six shutout innings on two hits and two walks, striking out four. Up against another strong offense, that the Pirates, on April 12th, he allowed two earned runs over 6.2 innings on five hits and no walks, striking out five in Pittsburgh. Overall, he has a 1.42 ERA and a 0.71 WHIP, the latter of which is actually second in the National League to only Clayton Kershaw's 0.70 WHIP.