2019 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics

First five rounds: Logan Davidson (1-29), Tyler Baum (2-66), Marcus Smith (3-104), Kyle McCann (4-134), Jalen Greer (5-164)
Also notable: Drew Millas (7-224), Colin Peluse (9-284), Sahid Valenzuela (13-404)

The A's like to go their own way when it comes to the draft, and this year was no different. They used an interesting strategy because they not only went for upside in their three Day Two high school draftees, but also looked for upside with their first three college selections in the first, second, and fourth rounds. Overall, though, I'm not a huge fan of this draft class because I feel that they lack enough true impact upside to justify the level of risk in their draftees. My personal favorite selection is 13th rounder Sahid Valenzuela out of Cal State Fullerton, which you can read about at the bottom.

1-29: SS Logan Davidson (Clemson, my rank: 32)
A year after taking Missouri State shortstop Jeremy Eierman in the second round, the A's grabbed a similar college performer in Logan Davidson. The three year starter for Clemson has also been a three year performer, capping it by slashing .291/.412/.574 with 15 home runs and a 61/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games as a junior. However, despite 42 home runs and an on-base percentage over .400 in his 187 games at Clemson, he struggled in the elite Cape Cod League, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games between two summers. The discrepancy between his performance in the ACC and with wood bats is not too dissimilar to his former teammate and 2018 first rounder Seth Beer, who is enjoying a strong season in the Astros' system (12 HR, .319/.416/.554), but there is reason to doubt Davidson just a bit more than Beer. While Beer didn't strike out much at Clemson, Davidson struck out in 20.7% of his plate appearances as a junior and he doesn't have the smoothest swing. That said, he is a strong defender at shortstop, which will buy his bat time, and that ACC track record still gives him the upside of a power hitting shortstop with 20-25 home runs annually and decent on-base percentages. It's just also a risky profile for a first round college bat. Slot value is $2.42 million, which seems fair for the Charlotte native.

2-66: RHP Tyler Baum (North Carolina, my rank: 100)
For their next pick, the A's travelled about four hours up I-85 to grab Davidson's ACC opponent Tyler Baum. Entering super regional play, the Orlando native has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings, showing major league stuff throughout his career at UNC but never quite pulling it all together. He's a 6'2" righty with a some extra movement in his delivery, which produces low to mid 90's fastballs as well as three good offspeed pitches in a slider, a curve, and a changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but it has gotten better throughout his time in Chapel Hill, with his unspectacular college performance stemming from inconsistency in his secondary stuff. It's not often that he has all three offspeeds working at once, with the curve and slider tending to blend into each other at times, and the changeup can flash plus but usually plays closer to average. Combine that with the extra movement in his delivery and he could be ticketed to the bullpen, but because they're drafting him in the second round, the A's must believe he can make it work as a starter. In my opinion, a small step forward in his stuff could really go a long way, and he could be a mid-rotation starter if his skinny frame can hold up over a full season. Slot value is $1 million, which also seems fair here.

3-104: OF Marcus Smith (Pembroke Hill HS [MO], unranked)
Marcus Smith is one of those athletic outfielders who can't really do much other than run, but every once in a while they can develop into stars. Smith, out of Kansas City, is a left handed slap hitter who uses his quick bat to spray line drives around the field, then uses his speed to do the rest of the work. For now, he's really only a singles hitter and he will take significant time to develop into something more, but the A's likely see a chance that Smith can develop at least some gap power, which he could turn into doubles and triples with his wheels. He's a strong defender due to that speed, but this pick overall comes with a lot of risk with some solid if unspectacular upside. Slot value is $560,000 and I honestly have no idea what it will take to buy him out of his Michigan commitment.

4-134: C Kyle McCann (Georgia Tech, my rank: 108)
Even though they went to the college ranks here, the A's got some upside in this pick. Kyle McCann had a huge season for Georgia Tech, slashing .299/.468/.674 with 23 home runs and a 77/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games, and the numbers say it all for his offensive profile. The Atlanta-area native has big raw power that he got to regularly against tough ACC foes, and he draws a ton of walks (20.9% rate) to pad his on-base percentage. On the flip side, he strikes out even more (25.9%) and slashed just .219/.309/.344 with two home runs and a 36/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games on the Cape, leading to questions as to how well his offensive profile will translate to pro ball. Defensively, he remains a work in progress and is not a lock to remain a catcher, giving his profile another hit. With all of that said, McCann is a high upside, high risk college player who could figure it all out and hit 25 home runs a year in the majors while sticking behind the plate, or he could be forced to move off of catcher then fail to hit enough with the first base pressure on his bat. Still, in the fourth round, this is probably my favorite pick that the A's made in this draft just due to the upside. Slot value is $418,200, which also sounds about right.

5-164: SS Jalen Greer (St. Rita HS [IL], unranked)
In the fifth round, the A's grabbed a raw, toolsy high schooler out of Chicago's South Side. Greer has some pop from the right side, using the natural loft in his swing and 6'3" frame to make the ball jump off his bat. He has also improved his fringy hit tool to the point where scouts, especially in Oakland it seems, are more confident that he'll get to that power. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain at shortstop, but he's more likely a third baseman long term. He's young for the class and has been praised for his work ethic, and he's an interesting upside play here in the fifth round. Slot value is $312,400, and again I am not sure what kind of money it will take to buy him out of his Missouri commitment.

7-224: C Drew Millas (Missouri State, my rank: 128)
After he slashed .321/.416/.500 with seven home runs as a sophomore at Missouri State, Drew Millas looked like a potential Day One pick if he could build off that in his junior season. Instead, he hit .275/.370/.422 with five home runs and a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio this year and dropped to the seventh round. Millas is a glove-first catcher with a great arm and exceptional actions behind the plate, making him a lock to not only stay there but positively impact the game every day. The real questions come with his bat, because in addition to the mediocre junior season, he slashed just .261/.327/.293 in 28 games on the Cape, having shown some power stemming from the loft in his swing and decent plate discipline, but nothing that stands out. The A's will work to help the 6'2" St. Louis-area native generate more impact at the plate, in which case he could be a Jeff Mathis-type backup for a long time with the potential to hit for a bit more power. Slot value is $191,500.

9-284: RHP Colin Peluse (Wake Forest, unranked)
After solid freshman and sophomore seasons at Wake Forest, Colin Peluse had a rough go as a junior, posting a 5.74 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, and a 71/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings for the Demon Deacons. He slipped to the ninth round, where the A's took the 6'3" righty with the crossfire delivery with hopes of straightening him out. He doesn't throw overly hard but his slider, changeup, and command give him a shot at being a #5 starter if he can get just a bit more consistent and sharpen the stuff just a little. He struck out ten in seven innings on the Cape last summer, but he's much more of a safe bet than an upside play. Slot value is $149,300.

13-404: SS Sahid Valenzuela (Cal State Fullerton, unranked)
Sahid Valenzuela looked very promising after slashing .314/.366/.377 as a true freshman at Cal State Fullerton in 2017, but he regressed to .272/.313/.358 as a sophomore and has had a roller coaster ride since then. He slashed .286/.342/.410 in 26 games on the Cape to set himself up as an interesting draft prospect, but he hurt his arm in March and played much of the season hurt, slashing .288/.403/.370 with one home run and a 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games for the Titans before finally going down with Tommy John surgery on May 2nd. He's very good defensively and should stick at shortstop, and his feel for the barrel and strike zone awareness give him a good chance to hit for average in pro ball once he recovers from surgery. The 5'9", 165 pound switch hitter is also no stranger to roller coaster rides, having grown up in a small Arizona border town near Yuma before moving to California to pursue his baseball dreams, and his strong work ethic will help him make the most out of his skill set. He does plan to sign here in the 13th round according to the Santa Cruz Sentinel, and I also read an interesting article on NCAA.com about him a couple years ago that you should check out:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-17/college-world-series-cal-state-fullertons-sahid-valenzuela-fulfills

2019 Draft Preview: Catchers

Drafting catchers is extremely risky, because catching is both the most demanding and the most difficult job on the diamond. Most catchers are either considered bat-first or glove-first, and many struggle to develop the secondary trait because the rigors of catching are either a) too difficult to learn or b) holding back their bat. High school catchers are especially risky, but even college catchers flop with regularity, as we have recently seen with guys like Max Pentecost (2014 Kennesaw State -> Blue Jays), Austin Rei (2015 Washington -> Red Sox), Chris Okey (2016 Clemson -> Reds), and Logan Ice (2016 Oregon State -> Indians).

Tier I: Adley Rutschman, Shea Langeliers
While catchers tend to be risky, there are two excellent options right at the top, by themselves making this a banner year for college catching. Adley Rutschman is the best catching prospect in recent memory, topping even Joey Bart (2018 Georgia Tech -> Giants), Mike Zunino (2012 Florida -> Mariners), and Matt Wieters (2007 Georgia Tech -> Orioles). He is exceptional in every facet of the game, absolutely crushing Pac-12 pitching with 16 home runs, a .424/.575/.771 slash line, and a 36/66 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games, showing power, contact, and plate discipline. Rutschman is as safe a bet as any player in this class to hit well in pro ball, and he could produce 30 or more home runs annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he produces plenty of positive value, showing great glove work and a strong arm behind the plate. On top of that, he is considered a strong leader and a hard worker, and in all likelihood the Orioles will pick him first overall. Meanwhile, in most other draft classes, Baylor's Shea Langeliers would be the top catching prospect available. Langeliers is a glove-first catcher with a cannon arm and very good glove work, likely better defensively than even Rutschman. His bat, however, is an interesting story. He was just decent at the plate in 2018 (11 HR, .252/.351/.496, 45/35 K/BB), and a hand injury at the beginning of the season looked to slow him down even further. However, he has been very good since returning, slashing .311/.376/.484 with six home runs and a 24/15 strikeout to walk ratio, and he figures to be an average hitter in the majors. While that's not the most exciting profile, Yadier Molina is still a potential Hall of Famer, though Langeliers figures to hit for a little more power with a little bit lower of an on-base percentage. He looks to be drafted somewhere in the top half of the first round, likely closer to the middle than the front.

Tier II: Ethan Hearn, Jonathan French
The top two high school catchers are pretty close to each other with their stock, though high school catchers in general come with a ton of risk and I'd be weary of picking either of these players on day one. I see Mobile product Ethan Hearn as the slightly better prospect, as he has shown plenty of power and loft at the plate, though he does have some swing and miss in his game. He's solid defensively with his strong arm but needs to clean up the rest of his game behind the plate. Overall, he has the tools to be a successful, productive catcher on both sides of the ball, but tweaking both sides of a catcher's game simultaneously is difficult and Hearn has plenty of risk. He looks to go in the second or third round. Over in the Atlanta area, Jonathan French has a fairly similar profile to Hearn. He shows power from a clean swing, though he also has swing and miss issues and I'm slightly more confident in Hearn's power than his. Defensively, he also has a strong arm and is ahead of Hearn with his overall glove work, but he still has work to do and also comes with plenty of risk. He's also a second or third rounder, but he more likely fits in the third.

Tier III: Kyle McCann, Carter Bins, Thomas Dillard
On the college side, these three come with work to do, just like Hearn and French, but they're also three years older. Kyle McCann plays for Georgia Tech and has absolutely mashed this year, slashing .296/.462/.699 with 22 home runs and a 63/54 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games, showing no doubt about his pure power but raising questions about his hit tool. Sure, McCann can take just about any ACC pitcher deep, but he has also struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances and slashed just .219/.309/.344 in the Cape Cod League last summer. His high walk rate might make teams feel a bit better about the swing and miss, but he's definitely not a lock to get to his power consistently at the next level. Defensively, he's just so-so, and there is a real chance he is forced to move to first base. In the best case scenario, McCann sticks behind the plate and goes on to mash 30 home runs per season in the majors, but in the worst case scenario he flairs out as a minor league first baseman who strikes out too much to be an impact offensively. He looks like a third or fourth rounder. Meanwhile, Fresno State's Carter Bins is McCann's polar opposite. He's a glove-first catcher who will stick behind the plate (though not to Langeliers' caliber), but his bat has been disappointing this year and he's far from a lock to produce in pro ball. He was pretty good as a sophomore (7 HR, .301/.372/.526, 41/17 K/BB), but he has regressed as a junior (5 HR, .263/.370/.389, 42/28 K/BB), showing improved plate discipline and that's about it. He has some loft and whip in his swing that could help him produce some power with wood bats, but the bat speed is closer to average and he might never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season. Combine that with some moderate swing and miss, and Bins looks more like a back-up catcher than a starter, though he has the tools to improve. Lastly, Thomas Dillard is more of a first base prospect, but he has caught some at Ole Miss and a team could choose to run him out there as a catcher and just see what happens. He is having a strong season with the bat for the Rebels, slashing .298/.440/.505 with ten home runs and a 39/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 56 games. He has plenty of pop in his right handed stroke, using his stocky frame and the whip and loft in his swing to drive balls out of the park. Additionally, his strong plate discipline helps cut down the swing and miss in his game to reasonable levels despite the power-oriented swing, and I see him as a better bet to hit in pro ball than both McCann and Bins. However, he is also the most likely of the three to end up at first base, which would put more pressure on his bat to perform. He projects as a 20-25 home run hitter with solid if unspectacular on-base percentages and figures to go in the third or fourth round.

Others: Cooper Johnson, Nick Kahle, Hayden Dunhurst