Showing posts with label Andy Pettitte. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andy Pettitte. Show all posts

Thursday, November 23, 2023

2024 Hall of Fame: My Ballot

Welcome back to the 2024 Hall of Fame news cycle. With old controversial names like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa having been replaced by a fresh set of controversial  names like Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran, it feels like we've entered a new era. But now with that trio on the board, it looks like we may be in the clear in terms of more controversial names popping up, with really only Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano on the horizon in a few years. I've written extensively about my thoughts on cheaters, and you can read my most recent take, written last year, here. But because the Bonds's, Clemens's, and soon the A-Rod's and Manny's of the world are exiting the ballot one way or another, little by little we can start to focus a little more on what Hall of Fame discourse is supposed to be about – players' on field accomplishments. The newcomers this year, from David Wright to Chase Utley to Joe Mauer and beyond, bring on that much more enjoyable discussion.

In fact, this ballot has more 50-50 names than I've ever seen. Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Billy Wagner, and Andruw Jones are easy "yes" votes for me. Manny Ramirez is closer but I still feel confident in that one. However, there's about a half dozen names – Carlos Beltran, Gary Sheffield, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton, Chase Utley, and Bobby Abreu – who feel extremely 50-50 to me. In the past, I've kept Beltran, Helton, and Abreu out. I've also voted for Abreu, but this year I voted for all except Abreu. Next year, any of those six could switch sides on my ballot. David Wright and Andy Pettitte came close as well. Overall, it's a really balanced ballot this year once you get past that first set of four easy yesses.

YES VOTES

3B Adrian Beltre (1998-2018)
Regular Season: 477 HR, .286/.339/.480, 121 SB, 115 wRC+, 83.8 fWAR in 2933 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .261/.297/.450, 0 SB, 95 wRC+ in 28 games.
Not only is Adrian Beltre the easiest yes vote on this entire ballot, he's a fun one to boot. He's a bit of a similar player to Scott Rolen as a superb defensive third baseman with an above average bat, but he also played in nearly 900 more games or about six full seasons' worth. There's no doubt in my mind that he's a Hall of Famer and I find it very hard to imagine anyone would disagree. Sure, he only had one truly elite season, but for two decades, this man simply performed year in and year out with unbelievable consistency. He had 18 separate seasons with greater than 2.0 fWAR, which is generally considered to be the standard for a solid everyday player, was an above league average hitter 13 times and nearly did so a 14th time in his age-39 season, and played above league average defense 19 times in 21 years. The cumulative stats are equally impressive, with nearly 500 home runs, over 600 doubles (he's #11 all time on that list), over 3000 hits, and a surprising triple digit stolen base total. It's funny to think that for most of his career, he didn't really look like a Hall of Famer, but looking back, he's one of the greatest ever to play his position. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't give him credit for his massive 2004 season, where he absolutely did look like a Hall of Famer hitting a ferocious .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs for the Dodgers and leading all baseball players not named Barry Bonds with 9.7 fWAR. And lastly, to top it all off, Beltre was by all accounts an absolute gem of a human being that entertained fans, was loved by his teammates, and was active in the community. He probably won't get in unanimously, but anyone who doesn't vote for him is tremendously misguided.

SS/3B Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular Season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 75 games.
Let's take a 180 and go from an extraordinarily likable third baseman to one of the most disliked third basemen in history. Alex Rodriguez is the new Barry Bonds. His accomplishments on the field put him way above and beyond what it takes to even be an inner circle Hall of Famer. With nearly 700 home runs, over 300 stolen bases, over 500 doubles, and an on-base percentage approaching .400 while playing stellar defense on the left side of the infield, he is quite literally one of the greatest to ever play the game. His 113.7 fWAR ranks thirteenth all time, ahead of names like Mickey Mantle (112.3), Mike Schmidt (106.5), and Rickey Henderson (106.3). But of course, that's not the point. Not only did Alex Rodriguez cheat, he did so at a time when it was clearly against the rules and he served a yearlong suspension in 2014. So he didn't just cheat, he is a cheater. That said, as I mentioned in my thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, so are dozens of players already enshrined. There is no purity to preserve. Put him in, and do the same with Bonds and Clemens while we're at it.

LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular Season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Billy Wagner has been on the ballot for long enough. He finally crossed the 50% threshold in 2022 in his seventh attempt, and in 2023 he got all the way to 68%. 2024, attempt #9, needs to be the year. Left handed relievers are obviously extremely important, given that every team always ensures that they have one in the bullpen, yet there is not a single one in the Hall of Fame. Billy Wagner isn't just the best lefty reliever of all time – it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers (no, I don't care about saves), but Wagner leads all lefty relievers in strikeouts (1196, ahead of Jesse Orosco's 1169), fWAR (24.0, ahead of Aroldis Chapman's 21.8), RE24 (198.2, ahead of Orosco's 154.5), and WPA (28.4, ahead of Chapman's 20.7), four stats I think are very good measures of long term success. And aside from strikeouts, none of these are even close, with a 10% lead in fWAR, a 28% lead in RE24, and a massive 37% lead in WPA even as Chapman creeps closer. Take handedness out of the question, and he still stacks up extremely well to the six true relievers in the Hall of Fame right now. Mariano Rivera is head and shoulders above everybody, but looking at the others – Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, and Bruce Sutter – Wagner has a better ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, and strikeout rate than all of them. 903 innings isn't a huge number, but it's big enough and he was so dominant in those 903 innings that the case is clear. The lone blemish on his resume is a rough, small sample postseason line, but that's hardly enough to keep him out. Wagner should have been in the Hall of Fame years ago and I hope 2024 is finally the year.

OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
The more time goes by, the more clear-cut Andruw Jones' case looks. We are talking about a player in the conversation for the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, and that alone at least puts him in the conversation. Throw in that he hit 434 home runs, including 25+ in ten straight seasons, and had four different seasons in which he posted an on-base percentage above .360. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he slashed just .214/.314/.420 and put just just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from his age-30 season onwards. But what he had done before that was nothing short of tremendous. From 1998-2006, a stretch of nine seasons, he slashed .270/.347/.513 with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, which together with his defense was enough to help him rack up the third most fWAR (57.3) in all of MLB behind only Barry Bonds (70.6) and Alex Rodriguez (68.6). And that's no fluke – that's nearly a decade sitting in the top three in the sport. That's a Hall of Fame-caliber prime by any measure, and even with the drop off at the end, it's hard to argue with a guy who hit 434 home runs on his way to being an 11% better than league average hitter, appeared in over 2000 games, and showed well in the postseason, all while playing some of the best outfield defense ever seen. That's pretty clear to me.

OF Carlos Beltran (1998-2017)
Regular Season: 435 HR, .279/.350/.486, 312 SB, 118 wRC+, 67.8 fWAR in 2586 games.
Postseason: 16 HR, .307/.412/.609, 11 SB, 169 wRC+ in 65 games.
They took very different paths to get there, but the final career numbers for Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones are remarkably similar. Beltran is slightly ahead across the board, including playing in nearly 400 more games, though Jones of course was an all-time great defender. For me, Jones is clearly in, and I'll consider Beltran a closer case. We're left with a pretty exceptional career even if no individual stats stick out. With 435 home runs, 565 doubles, 312 stolen bases, 1084 walks, 1582 runs scored, and 1587 RBI, the counting stats are impressive. He eclipsed 5 fWAR seven times in an eight year period from 2001-2008, totaling 46.6 fWAR in that stretch that placed him fourth in baseball to only Albert Pujols (62.2), Alex Rodriguez (61.9), and Barry Bonds (54.3). Like Jones, that eight year peak put him near the pinnacle of the sport for a long period of time. He put up six 20-20 seasons in that stretch and came two home runs shy of a 40-40 season in 2004. It's all great, but there's two more important factors to consider. One is that he was implicated as one of the ringleaders in the Astros' 2017 sign stealing scandal, so I have to apply the "cheating penalty." With that, if I'm being honest, he's probably not in. However, it's his postseason performance that pushes him over the edge. In 65 games, he hit .307/.412/.609 with 16 home runs, 15 doubles, and 11 stolen bases, which would put him on pace for about 40 home runs and 27 stolen bases over a full 162 games. He's not the all time leader in anything because 65 games wasn't quite enough to match guys like Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, and Jose Altuve in the counting stats, but few players in the history of the game can match his combination of quality and quantity of postseason performance. Whatever the cheating penalty takes off his resume, the postseason performance puts it back on, and for me it's just enough to earn a vote.

OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular Season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez presents a very interesting case. Like Alex Rodriguez, he cheated, he got caught, and he cheated at a time when it was clearly against the rules. So now I have to apply that penalty to his numbers, which on their own are pretty comfortably up to Hall of Fame standards. I noted that borderline players who were caught or at least have a consensus around them using PED's would not make my ballot, but because Ramirez is fairly comfortably above that threshold, he then becomes a borderline case after the PED penalty has already been factored in. Still, even with the PED's, it's hard to go ahead a guy that finished well above 500 home runs and nearly reached a .300/.400/.600 career line in over 2300 games. Only five hitters ever can match all three legs of Manny's slash line – Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. None of those players appeared in a game after 1960, and among that group, only Ruth out-homered Ramirez. He is a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+, a feat made more impressive by the fact that offense was at an all time high when he played, and he reached a 140 or better wRC+ fifteen times in a sixteen year stretch from 1995-2010. So for a decade and a half, he was no less than an elite hitter at virtually any time. Throw in the fact that he is the all time postseason home run leader at 29, and I feel comfortable getting over the PED penalty and the poor defense.

OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular Season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is a very borderline case, and I won't die on this hill. Given that he likely used PED's, he would seem to fit the bill as a player with a borderline case who was disqualified because without those PED's, he probably doesn't put up a HoF resume. But with that said, his PED usage is not as clear-cut as guys like Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, or Manny Ramirez, and I've mentioned that I tend to look for at least widespread consensus if not full on proof. I would flip my vote to "no" if proof came out, but to this point I don't find "probably" to be a strong enough adverb to apply that penalty. So let's take his case for what he did on the field. Sheffield clubbed over 500 home runs and over a thousand extra base hits in total while holding a slash line that nearly reached the .300/.400/.500 threshold despite a very long, 22 year career. Finishing with a career 141 wRC+, he had three qualified seasons in which he was up over 170 (an elite number) and six in which he was up over 150. And unlike many big power hitters, he rarely struck out, topping out at a measly 83 punch outs in 2004 and 2008. So he has the counting stats and he certainly looked the part of a Hall of Famer for a few different sustained periods in his career, and for me that's just enough even if he wasn't a great defender. The numbers don't look quite as great coming after Manny Ramirez, but it's important to note that Manny was playing with the PED penalty while Sheffield is not.

C Joe Mauer (2004-2018)
Regular Season: 143 HR, .306/.388/.439, 52 SB, 123 wRC+, 53.0 fWAR in 1858 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .275/.341/.300, 0 SB, 77 wRC+ in 10 games.
Joe Mauer is another borderline case. He only played 15 seasons, and his 1858 games played are the fewest ever for a position player that's earned my hypothetical vote going back 2018, 130 behind Larry Walker's 1988. Not only that, but his .439 slugging percentage is the lowest among any player I've voted for, just behind Derek Jeter's .440. That said, when you get beyond the short career and the lack of power, Mauer shines in just about everything else. His 53.0 fWAR place him fifteenth all time among catchers, ahead of names like Mickey Cochrane (50.6) and Roy Campanella (45.7), though it's also behind names like Russell Martin (54.9) and Brian McCann (54.5). Meanwhile, his .388 career on-base percentage is the third highest ever for a catcher who appeared in more than 900 games (and the two names ahead of him, Cochrane and Wally Schang, both retired before World War II) and this next stat might be even more impressive: Joe Mauer joins Mike Piazza and Buster Posey as the only catchers to bat over .300 for their careers since integration even when you set the minimum as low as 300 plate appearances. He's simply a unicorn when it comes to contact-hitting catchers. We also have to look at his incredible 2009 season, when he won the AL MVP Award, put up 8.4 fWAR, and posted the highest single season batting average (.365) ever by a catcher (minimum 400 PA) since King Kelly in 1886, when America had just 38 states. I'll admit, all those numbers are impressive, but still, the counting stats are somewhat lacking. Here's where I'll give his profile one more nudge. Joe Mauer was born in Saint Paul, went to high school in Saint Paul, was drafted first overall by his hometown Twins, and played his entire career in his home city. Doing that while being, relatively speaking, one of the greatest catchers ever in terms of hitting for average, is just enough to earn my vote. It's not easy to be a great catcher, but Mauer made it look easy.

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular Season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
I have left Todd Helton off my ballot every year until this year, but this time, he'll just barely squeak in. As a first baseman (negative defensive value) playing his home games at Coors Field, the offensive bar is going to be incredibly high to reach the Hall of Fame, and during his peak from 1999-2005, he did just that by slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs in 1092 games. Over that seven year stretch, it was good for the fourth most fWAR in baseball behind Bonds, A-Rod, and Andruw Jones. After that, the decline was fairly steep; from 2006-2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in 968 games. That means for nearly half of his career, he was a moderately above average hitter (112 wRC+) while offering no defensive value. But then again, he ran nearly a .400 on-base percentage in his post-prime years that I'm describing as a "fairly steep decline." Meanwhile, while it's not his fault that he only got to play in fifteen postseason games, Helton did not take advantage of that small sample opportunity so there's no addition to the resume there. In the end, we have to decide if seven years of elite hitting is enough by itself to warrant a Hall of Fame vote – in the past, that's been a no for me. This year, I find myself a little more taken by some of those insane seasons in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, etc., and he had some solid post-prime seasons in 2007 and 2009. I'll give him the yes this year.

2B Chase Utley (2003-2018)
Regular Season: 259 HR, .275/.358/.465, 154 SB, 118 wRC+, 61.6 fWAR in 1937 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .224/.364/.410, 11 SB, 110 wRC+ in 68 games.
Full disclosure, I was completely ready to vote "no" on Chase Utley, but the closer I looked, the more compelling his case became. On the surface, he seems like a textbook "Hall of Very Good" player. 259 home runs is nothing special, 411 doubles is nice but not a standout stat, he played in fewer than 2000 games, had an unremarkable .823 career OPS, and hit just .224 in a large postseason sample. I grew up watching him play in the same division as my hometown Nationals, and while he made a great team alongside guys like Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Cole Hamels, I didn't see him as standing out and never felt like I was watching a Hall of Famer. But let's look closer. His peak from 2005-2009, while short, was truly elite. He accumulated more than 7.0 fWAR in five straight seasons, totaling 38.4 that made for the second highest total in all of baseball behind only Albert Pujols while slashing .301/.388/.535 with 146 home runs in 758 games. Five years among the game's elite isn't a ton of time, but over the next five years from 2010-2014, he continued to contribute at a high level and in fact when you pull the camera out to the nine year stretch from 2005-2013, he's still second to only Pujols with his 53.9 fWAR in that stretch. I'll reiterate that – over the nine year stretch, no small sample, he was the second best player in baseball by fWAR in the post-steroid era. How did he do it? Utley was an on-base machine, posting OBP's above .375 for six straight seasons and stayed over .340 for nine straight, and he hit for power too, with four consecutive seasons of 73 or more extra base hits. All along, he played very strong defense at second base, was one of the game's most efficient and effective baserunners, and was an overall consistent, steady presence for the Phillies dynasties of the 2000's. Lastly, let's look back at the postseason resume. Sure, he only hit .224, but that's in large part due to an abysmal 3-43 run over his final two postseasons at the age of 37 and 38 – before his 37th birthday, he was a career .263/.404/.497 hitter in 49 games, including a Herculean .296/.424/.648 effort in the Phillies' ultimately unsuccessful 2009 title defense.

NO VOTES

OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular Season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 76 games.
In the past, I have voted for Bobby Abreu and every year I'm very 50-50. It's an extremely borderline case in a year with quite a few borderline cases. Bobby Abreu had a great career, clubbing nearly 300 home runs and nearly 600 doubles while getting on base at a nearly .400 clip and stealing 400 bases. From 1998-2006, he posted an OBP above .400 eight times in nine seasons, he hit at least fifteen home runs in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, clubbing at least 30 doubles in eleven of those, and stole at least nineteen bases in fourteen straight seasons from 1998-2011. He was an on-base machine, could hit for some power, and was an extremely smart baserunner that maximized his speed on the base paths. Add in that he played in over 150 games in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, and he was a model of consistency that contributed to the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels offenses in a wide variety of ways. It's a rock-solid offensive profile, if not the most flashy, but his glove doesn't do him any favors. With an average glove, I think I would vote Abreu in. But he was a net-negative in the field, especially in the second half of his career, so the pressure is on the bat. And it was a very, very good bat. But was it truly great? I think it was close, but I do lean towards a small Hall philosophy and ultimately Bobby Abreu falls victim to that this year. If he got voted in, I wouldn't be opposed, and I may even vote for him in the future.

3B David Wright (2004-2018)
Regular Season: 242 HR, .296/.376/.491, 196 SB, 133 wRC+, 51.2 fWAR in 1585 games.
Postseason: 2 HR, .198/.311/.319, 1 SB, 72 wRC+ in 24 games.
David Wright is close. He had some excellent seasons, including an exceptional four year run from 2005-2008 in which he accrued 25.8 fWAR (fifth most in MLB) while hitting .311/.394/.534 with 116 home runs. While his true peak only lasted four years, he continued to play very well over the next half decade or so, putting himself on a Hall of Fame pace. Unfortunately, from age-31 (2014) onwards, his production collapsed and he hit just .265/.339/.395 with 20 home runs in 211 games, good for just 2.6 fWAR, and he played in just two games after his 34th birthday. Overall, David Wright looked like a Hall of Famer from 2004-2013, a nice decade of production, but couldn't close out the deal. It doesn't help either that he didn't take much advantage of his two postseason opportunities and hit under .200.

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular Season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter, and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. There is a place in the Hall for consistency and longevity, but ultimately I see it as a place for the all time greats, not just those who were able to string together enough cumulative value to make it. For as great as he was, aside from those two great seasons I don't think opposing teams looked at the lineup card in the morning and thought "uh oh, Andy Pettitte is pitching." Obviously nobody looked forward to facing him, and he still provided a very tough matchup, but the point stands. Andy Pettitte was very, very good for a very long time, but I just don't see a Hall of Famer.

LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular Season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
Mark Buehrle is closer than you'd think, but ultimately not quite a Hall of Famer. He was a model of consistency, going fifteen straight seasons with at least 198.2 innings pitched while only once allowing his ERA to rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. He generated a lot of weak contact, took care of some of it himself with a standout glove, and gave the White Sox and later Marlins and Blue Jays a rock near the top of their rotations. However, he also spent much of his career pitching in a weaker AL Central and he was never particularly dominant, save for perhaps his 2005 season (3.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 149/40 K/BB) and of course his 2007 no-hitter and 2009 perfect game. It's hard to get into the Hall based on consistent solid performance rather than periods of true standout performance, and if you were going to give Buehrle a shot, you probably would have wanted to see him throw more than sixteen seasons.

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular Season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
I wasn't a big Omar Vizquel fan before the abuse/sexual assault allegations came out against him, and while I tend not to be concerned about a player's off field behavior, the allegations are pretty serious. Still, I don't need those to know that he's not a Hall of Famer. I do think there is a place in the Hall for the game's elite defenders, but Ozzie Smith (90 wRC+) and Andruw Jones (111 wRC+) are not in the same tier as Vizquel (83 wRC+). Jones clubbed 434 home runs and was a well-above league average hitter for most of his career, while Smith was 10% below league average but did pop for seven seasons in which he was above league average. Vizquel, meanwhile, was 17% below league average for his career and only twice in his 24 seasons could be considered above league average by wRC+ (115 in 1999, 102 in 2002). In an era when offense was at an all time high, Vizquel was a black hole in those Mariners, Indians, and Giants offenses that hit for no power and didn't even get on base at a terribly high clip. He finished with a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never reached .400 in any single season. The counting stats are good – nearly 3000 hits, over 450 doubles, and over 400 stolen bases – but they're not enough to make up for the lack of impact at the plate even with the special glove.

RHP Francisco Rodriguez (2002-2017)
Regular Season: 2.86 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 1142/389 K/BB in 976 innings.
Postseason: 2.95 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 49/18 K/BB in 36.2 innings.
The bar for relievers to get into the Hall of Fame is high, and it should be. The fact that Billy Wagner isn't in proves that, and I'm all in on Wagner's case. Francisco Rodriguez, I believe, is close to having a Hall of Fame case, but it's not quite enough. Among relievers, he's twentieth all time in fWAR, ninth in RE24, and thirteenth in WPA. For a span of fourteen years from 2003-2016, he was more often than not among the best closers in the league, and that's certainly a loud statement. But inconsistent command kept him from truly joining the game's elite closers for the most part, and I don't think he's in the same tier as Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner (and of course nobody is in Mariano Rivera's tier). I think he's closer to Joe Nathan, who narrowly missed my ballot when he appeared in 2022. I'm glad K-Rod got the 5% so we can give him a few looks, but I'll ultimately be okay if Rivera, Hoffman, and hopefully eventually Wagner are the only relievers from that era to make the Hall.

OF Matt Holliday (2004-2018)
Regular Season: 316 HR, .299/.379/.510, 108 SB, 135 wRC+, 49.3 fWAR in 1903 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .245/.303/.421, 1 SB, 97 wRC+ in 77 games.
Matt Holliday has a nice case that comes up a bit short. For a while there, he certainly had the bat, hitting .314/.393/.538 with 218 home runs and 40.8 fWAR from 2006-2013, the latter of which was sixth best in baseball in that eight year stretch. However, the bar is a bit higher because he spent half a decade in Colorado and because his below average glove adds nothing to his case. In the end, he dropped off a bit once he hit his mid 30's and came up with just decent counting stats (316 HR, 468 2B, 2096 hits, 802 walks) for the bat-only player he was. I'd like to see more production in his non-peak seasons and a larger sample size if I'm going to vote for him.

SS Jose Reyes (2003-2018)
Regular Season: 145 HR, .283/.334/.427, 517 SB, 103 wRC+, 43.9 fWAR in 1877 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .229/.275/.354, 3 SB, 57 wRC+ in 11 games.
Jose Reyes had a fun career. In the mid-2000's, when he was stealing 60+ bases with triples totals in the teens every season and batting close to .300, he was must-see TV. From 2005-2008, his 198 stolen bases led MLB by a large margin over second-place Juan Pierre (162) and third-place Hanley Ramirez (137), while his 48 triples placed atop the league as well. However, that peak didn't last long and he ultimately settled in as an average hitting, average defending shortstop that created most of his value with his legs. Reyes had a great career with over 500 stolen bases but it wasn't Hall worthy.

Thursday, November 24, 2022

2023 Hall of Fame: My Ballot

Another year, another cycle of Hall of Fame discourse that will range anywhere from fascinating to toxic. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are unfortunately gone from the ballot, but the steroid discourse is far from over with names like Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and others still present. For my full thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, click here, but the quick summary is that I think almost all of them should get in. 

My ballot this year is a bit sparse. Last year, I voted for the full ten players, but this year I'm down to six after David Ortiz earned induction, Bonds, Clemens, and Curt Schilling ran out of eligibility, and Bobby Abreu dropped off my ballot. No newcomers made their way on, but A-Rod is an addition from last year after the one year steroid penalty I applied. Below, let's first walk through the players I would vote for on my hypothetical ballot, then let's walk through the ones that I wouldn't vote for and why that is. As a reminder, players need 75% of the vote to get into the Hall of Fame.

YES VOTES

3B Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular Season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 75 games.
Last year, I had Alex Rodriguez wait in "time out" because I didn't want to (hypothetically) make a cheater a first ballot Hall of Famer. Now that we're past that, though, it's time to let A-Rod into the Hall. You can't argue with the results. Nearly 700 home runs, over 300 stolen bases, over 500 doubles, and an on-base percentage approaching .400 while playing stellar defense makes for an inner-circle resume. His 113.7 fWAR ranks thirteenth all time, ahead of names like Mickey Mantle (112.3), Mike Schmidt (106.5), and Rickey Henderson (106.3). But of course, that's not the point. Not only did Alex Rodriguez cheat, he did so at a time when it was clearly against the rules and he served a yearlong suspension in 2014. So he didn't just cheat, he is a cheater. That said, as I mentioned in my thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, so are dozens of players already enshrined. There is no purity to preserve. Put him in, and do the same with Bonds and Clemens while we're at it.

LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular Season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Okay, Billy Wagner has been on the ballot for long enough. He finally crossed the 50% threshold last year in his seventh attempt, and now at number eight I'm starting to lose patience. Left handed relievers are obviously extremely important, given that every team always ensures that they have one in the bullpen, yet there is not a single one in the Hall of Fame. Billy Wagner isn't just the best lefty reliever of all time – it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers (no, I don't care about saves), but Wagner leads all lefty relievers in strikeouts (1196, ahead of Jesse Orosco's 1169), fWAR (24.0, ahead of Aroldis Chapman's 20.1), RE24 (198.2, ahead of Orosco's 154.5), and WPA (28.4, ahead of Chapman's 19.9), four stats I think are very good measures of long term success. And aside from strikeouts, none of these are even close, with a 19% lead in fWAR, a 28% lead in RE24, and a massive 43% lead in WPA. Take handedness out of the question, and he still stacks up extremely well to the six true relievers in the Hall of Fame right now. Mariano Rivera is head and shoulders above everybody, but looking at the others – Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, and Bruce Sutter – Wagner has a better ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, and strikeout rate than all of them. 903 innings isn't a huge number, but it's big enough and he was so dominant in those 903 innings that the case is clear. The lone blemish on his resume is a rough, small sample postseason line, but that's hardly enough to keep him out. Wagner should have been in the Hall of Fame years ago and I hope 2023 is finally the year.

OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
The more time goes by, the more clear-cut Andruw Jones' case looks. We are talking about a player in the conversation for the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, and that alone at least puts him in the conversation. Throw in that he hit 434 home runs, including 25+ in ten straight seasons, and had four different seasons in which he posted an on-base percentage above .360. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he slashed just .214/.314/.420 and put just just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from his age-30 season onwards. But what he had done before that was nothing short of tremendous. From 1998-2006, a stretch of nine seasons, he slashed .270/.347/.513 with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, which together with his defense was enough to help him rack up the third most fWAR in all of MLB behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. And that's no fluke – that's nearly a decade sitting in the top three in the sport. That's a Hall of Fame-caliber prime by any measure, and even with the drop off at the end, it's hard to argue with a guy who hit 434 home runs on his way to being an 11% better than league average hitter, appeared in over 2000 games, and showed well in the postseason, all while playing some of the best outfield defense ever seen. That's pretty clear to me.

3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games.
Many people have taken up Scott Rolen as their "guy" in this cycle, and more power to them. Personally, I see him more as a guy I'd like to see get in rather than the one I'm going to stump the hardest for (that would be Wagner and Jones), but I'm still on Team Rolen. Back when he was playing, I don't think many people thought they were watching a future Hall of Famer (though his 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 9.0 fWAR 2004 season was a Hall of Fame-caliber season), but when you zoom the camera out, the profile looks better and better. Already a high level defender, he went eight straight seasons from 1997-2004 with at least a 121 wRC+, meaning at any point in that stretch he was no less than 21% better than league average with the bat. During that time, he had the third most fWAR in baseball behind only Bonds and A-Rod, though unlike Jones he didn't have that huge drop off at the end of his career. So we have a high level defender, a well above average bat, a consistent bat that held his production over a long period of time (enough to rack up 300+ home runs, 500+ doubles, and 100+ stolen bases if you like counting stats), and best of all for some old school voters, a guy who did it clean. Yeah, he never really looked like a Hall of Famer outside that huge 2004 season, but in aggregate, I think he was.

OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular Season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez presents a very interesting case. Like Alex Rodriguez, he cheated, he got caught, and he cheated at a time when it was clearly against the rules. So now I have to apply that penalty to his numbers, which on their own are pretty comfortably up to Hall of Fame standards. I noted that borderline players who were caught or at least have a consensus around them using PED's would not make my ballot, but because Ramirez is fairly comfortably above that threshold, he then becomes a borderline case after the PED penalty has already been factored in. Still, even with the PED's, it's hard to go ahead a guy that finished well above 500 home runs and nearly reached a .300/.400/.600 career line in over 2300 games. Only five hitters ever can match all three legs of Manny's slash line – Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. None of those players appeared in a game after 1960, and among that group, only Ruth out-homered Ramirez. He is a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+, a feat made more impressive by the fact that offense was at an all time high when he played, and he reached a 140 or better wRC+ fifteen times in a sixteen year stretch from 1995-2010. So for a decade and a half, he was no less than an elite hitter at virtually any time. Throw in the fact that he is the all time postseason home run leader at 29, and I feel comfortable getting over the PED penalty and the poor defense.

OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular Season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is a very borderline case, and I won't die on this hill. Given that he likely used PED's, he would seem to fit the bill as a player with a borderline case who was disqualified because without those PED's, he probably doesn't put up a HoF resume. But with that said, his PED usage is not as clear-cut as guys like Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, or Manny Ramirez, and I've mentioned that I tend to look for at least widespread consensus if not full on proof. I would flip my vote to "no" if proof came out, but to this point I don't find "probably" to be a strong enough adverb to apply that penalty. So let's take his case for what he did on the field. Sheffield clubbed over 500 home runs and over a thousand extra base hits in total while holding a slash line that nearly reached the .300/.400/.500 threshold despite a very long, 22 year career. Finishing with a career 141 wRC+, he had three qualified seasons in which he was up over 170 (an elite number) and six in which he was up over 150. And unlike many big power hitters, he rarely struck out, topping out at a measly 83 punch outs in 2004 and 2008. So he has the counting stats and he certainly looked the part of a Hall of Famer for a few different sustained periods in his career, and for me that's just enough even if he wasn't a great defender. The numbers don't look quite as great coming after Manny Ramirez, but it's important to note that Manny was playing with the PED penalty while Sheffield is not.

NO VOTES

OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular Season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 76 games.
Last year, I voted yes on Bobby Abreu, but I mentioned that I was right on the fence and leaned 51-49 towards my yes vote. This year, I'm still extremely on the fence but I'm leaning 51-49 towards a no vote. It's simply the most borderline case I've encountered so far. Bobby Abreu had a great career, clubbing nearly 300 home runs and nearly 600 doubles while getting on base at a nearly .400 clip and stealing 400 bases. From 1998-2006, he posted an OBP above .400 eight times in nine seasons, he hit at least fifteen home runs in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, clubbing at least 30 doubles in eleven of those, and stole at least nineteen bases in fourteen straight seasons from 1998-2011. He was an on-base machine, could hit for some power, and was an extremely smart baserunner that maximized his speed on the base paths. Add in that he played in over 150 games in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, and he was a model of consistency that contributed to the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels offenses in a wide variety of ways. It's a rock-solid offensive profile, if not the most flashy, but his glove doesn't do him any favors. With an average glove, I think I would vote Abreu in. But he was a net-negative in the field, especially in the second half of his career, so the pressure is on the bat. And it was very, very good. But was it truly great? I think it was close, but I do lean towards a small Hall philosophy and ultimately Bobby Abreu falls victim to that this year. Maybe he'll be back on my ballot next year, we'll see.

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular Season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
Todd Helton is very, very close, but my small Hall mindset is going to keep him out for now. As a first baseman playing his home games at Coors Field, the offensive bar is going to be incredibly high to reach the Hall of Fame, and during his peak from 1999-2005, he did just that by slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs in 1092 games. Over that seven year stretch, it was good for the fourth most fWAR in baseball behind Bonds, A-Rod, and Andruw Jones. But unfortunately, the decline was pretty steep; from 2006-2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in 968 games. Even for a first baseman at Coors Field, holding an on-base percentage near .400 through your post-prime years is impressive, and it's almost enough to get him into the Hall for me. Jones followed a similar career arc and I see him as a clear-cut Hall of Famer, but it's important to note that Jones' prime lasted nine years while Helton's lasted seven, so it was almost 30% longer. It's also not his fault that he only got to play in fifteen postseason games, but Helton did not take advantage of that small sample opportunity so there's no addition to the resume there. In the end, we have to decide if seven years of elite hitting is enough by itself to warrant a Hall of Fame vote – in my opinion as someone with a small Hall mindset, that's a no.

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular Season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter, and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. There is a place in the Hall for consistency and longevity, but ultimately I see it as a place for the all time greats, not just those who were able to string together enough cumulative value to make it. For as great as he was, aside from those two great seasons I don't think opposing teams looked at the lineup card in the morning and thought "uh oh, Andy Pettitte is pitching." Obviously nobody looked forward to facing him, and he still provided a very tough matchup, but the point stands. Andy Pettitte was very, very good for a very long time, but I just don't see a Hall of Famer.

2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Regular Season: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games.
It's Jeff Kent's last year on the ballot, and he's very close to a Hall of Famer. He brings a great combination of longevity and consistent, high level performance, having posted eight consecutive 20 HR/30 double seasons, ten consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (and sixteen straight at league average or better), and nine consecutive seasons with at least 3.3 fWAR. In 2000, he popped for a tremendous season, slashing .334/.424/.596 with 33 home runs and 7.4 fWAR. And given that he played in over 100 games in all seventeen seasons of his career, he was able to rack up solid counting stats with nearly 400 home runs, well over 500 doubles, and nearly 2500 hits in all. He wasn't a standout defender, but he was certainly solid over there at second base. Throw in good postseason performance with a .276/.340/.500 line over 49 games, and it's a well rounded profile. Ultimately though, it feels just a little light. For all his consistency and longevity, he only popped for a 140 or better wRC+ twice, only reached 5.0 fWAR twice, only once hit more than 33 home runs in a season, and only once posted an on-base percentage above .385. So similar to Andy Pettitte, he was very good for a very long time, but there's no peak here that really wows you beyond his one great season in 2000 and another very good one in 2002. I feel better comparing Jeff Kent to the great second basemen of the era, like Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar, and Chase Utley, than I do to the greats of all time.

LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular Season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
Mark Buehrle is closer than you'd think, but ultimately not quite a Hall of Famer. He was a model of consistency, going fifteen straight seasons with at least 198.2 innings pitched while only once allowing his ERA to rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. He generated a lot of weak contact, took care of some of it himself with a standout glove, and gave the White Sox and later Marlins and Blue Jays a rock near the top of their rotations. However, he also spent much of his career pitching in a weaker AL Central and he was never particularly dominant, save for perhaps his 2005 season (3.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 149/40 K/BB) and of course his 2007 no-hitter and 2009 perfect game. It's hard to get into the Hall based on consistent solid performance rather than periods of true standout performance, and if you were going to give Buehrle a shot, you probably would have wanted to see him throw more than sixteen seasons.

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular Season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
I wasn't a big Omar Vizquel fan before the abuse/sexual assault allegations came out against him, and while I tend not to be concerned about a player's off field behavior, the allegations are pretty serious. Still, I don't need those to know that he's not a Hall of Famer. I do think there is a place in the Hall for the game's elite defenders, but Ozzie Smith (90 wRC+) and Andruw Jones (111 wRC+) are not in the same tier as Vizquel (83 wRC+). Jones clubbed 434 home runs and was a well-above league average hitter for most of his career, while Smith was 10% below league average but did pop for seven seasons in which he was above league average. Vizquel, meanwhile, was 17% below league average for his career and only twice in his 24 seasons could be considered above league average by wRC+ (115 in 1999, 102 in 2002). In an era when offense was at an all time high, Vizquel was a black hole in those Mariners, Indians, and Giants offenses that hit for no power and didn't even get on base at a terribly high clip. He finished with a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never reached .400 in any single season. The counting stats are good – nearly 3000 hits, over 450 doubles, and over 400 stolen bases – but they're not enough to make up for the lack of impact at the plate even with the special glove.

OF Carlos Beltran (1998-2017)
Regular Season: 435 HR, .279/.350/.486, 312 SB, 118 wRC+, 67.8 fWAR in 2586 games.
Postseason: 16 HR, .307/.412/.609, 11 SB, 169 wRC+ in 65 games.
Because he cheated pretty egregiously with the Astros in 2017, Carlos Beltran will get his automatic one year "time out" from my ballot. Going forward, I'm open to voting for him – over 400 home runs, over 1000 extra base hits, over 300 stolen bases, seven different seasons more than 5.0 fWAR, and elite postseason performance certainly warrant strong consideration. But I'll leave deeper thought on that for next year.

RHP Francisco Rodriguez (2002-2017)
Regular Season: 2.86 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 1142/389 K/BB in 976 innings.
Postseason: 2.95 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 49/18 K/BB in 36.2 innings.
The bar for relievers to get into the Hall of Fame is high, and it should be. The fact that Billy Wagner isn't in proves that, and I'm all in on Wagner's case. Francisco Rodriguez, I believe, is close to having a Hall of Fame case, but it's not quite enough. Among relievers, he's twentieth all time in fWAR, ninth in RE24, and thirteenth in WPA. For a span of fourteen years from 2003-2016, he was more often than not among the best closers in the league, and that's certainly a loud statement. But inconsistent command kept him from truly joining the game's elite closers for the most part, and I don't think he's in the same tier as Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner (and of course nobody is in Mariano Rivera's tier). I think he's closer to Joe Nathan, who narrowly missed my ballot last year but failed to receive the necessary 5% to get another shot. I do hope K-Rod gets the 5% so we can give him a few looks, but I'll ultimately be okay if Rivera, Hoffman, and hopefully eventually Wagner are the only relievers from that era to make the Hall.

RHP Jered Weaver (2006-2017)
Regular Season: 150-98, 3.63 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 1621/551 K/BB in 2067.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 2.60 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 0.98 WHIP, 28/12 K/BB in 27.2 innings.
Jered Weaver almost had it. Over the first nine seasons of his career, and at the time of his 32nd birthday, he was 131-69 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, which is probably a Hall of Fame pace. A reasonable decline in his thirties would have given him a case, but unfortunately, his velocity disappeared and he would pitch just three more seasons, going 19-29 with a 5.15 ERA and finding himself out of baseball by his 35th birthday. I don't consider him to be close to the Hall, but I do want to give credit where it's due given how good he was over the first nine seasons of his career.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

2022 Hall of Fame: My Ballot

For my views on steroids, see my writing from a year ago. My views haven't changed for the most part, though with players like Alex Rodriguez to the ballot, some small updates should be in place. It needs to be looked at on a case by case basis, but for the most part, any player who tested positive but whose Hall-worthy production was likely not solely a product of PED's (i.e., the steroids did not push him over the hump) will have to wait a year before getting my vote in their second year of eligibility. For players on the borderline who may or may not have made it without PED's, they don't get in. Below are the players I would vote for and some notables that I would not vote for, with reasoning.

Begrudging but firm YES: OF Barry Bonds (1986-2007)
Regular season: 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR in 2986 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .245/.433/.503, 9 SB, 141 wRC+ in 48 games.

I'll keep this brief because there isn't much mystery surrounding Barry Bonds' case. Ignoring the steroids, you could make a very good case that he is the single greatest player in the history of baseball. Not one of the best, but the single greatest. Take away all the steroids, which there is no doubt he used and abused, and he's still likely a 100 WAR player that would be in the Hall with over 90% of the vote. See last year's steroid primer for my thoughts on steroids and why I'm willing to let it slide and vote him in.

Begrudging but firm YES: RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007)
Regular season: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB in 4916.2 innings.
Postseason: 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB in 199 innings.
Pretty similar deal here to Bonds. He's not quite the greatest pitcher of all time, but he's in the inner circle of all time greats and won seven Cy Young's. Again, if he hadn't been juicing he still would be a pretty comfortable Hall of Famer, and it's just time to let him in.

Clear-cut YES: RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007)
Regular season: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 innings.
Postseason: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 120/25 K/BB in 133.1 innings.
Let's get this one out of the way. Yeah, he's an asshole, and it's not just because he's politically conservative or an outspoken Trump supporter. The way he talks about people, the things he says, they're just childish and hurtful no matter where you fall on the political spectrum. That said, if he gets elected, I guarantee he won't be the worst person to be enshrined in Cooperstown by a good margin (Cap Anson played a major role in segregating baseball, an offense I actually believe to be grounds for removal from the Hall). In fact, he's not even the worst human being on this ballot because Omar Vizquel exists. In the context of my hypothetical Hall of Fame vote, I really, really don't care if he wants to be a jackass on his own time, because I'm concerned about what he did between the lines. Voting for him is not an endorsement of his opinions and any reasonable person knows that. Anyways, Schilling was part of an elite group of pitchers in the Steroid Era that really stood out at a time when offense was at an all time high, and his sustained peak from 1996-2004 (3.23 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 2127/397 K/BB in 2007.2 IP) was as impressive a statement as any player on this ballot not named Bonds, Clemens, or Rodriguez. He reached 300 strikeouts three times and nearly did so a fourth, threw over 225 innings seven times, posted teight qualified seasons with an ERA of 3.26 or lower, and was an impact piece on pitching staffs for nearly twenty years. He struck out 23.4% of his opponents for his career and walked just 5.3%. Then we take his postseason performance into consideration, in which he pitched to a 2.23 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 133.1 innings against baseball's best lineups when it mattered most, and this is a pretty clear Hall of Fame resume to me.

Clear-cut YES: LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Next up we have the greatest left handed reliever of all time, and it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers but he leads all lefties in strikeouts (1196 to 1169 over Jesse Orosco), fWAR, (24.0 to 20.3 over Aroldis Chapman), RE24 (198.2 to 154.5 over Orosco) and WPA (28.4 to 21.0 over Chapman), four stats I think are pretty telling. Lefty relievers are an extremely important part of the game to the point where every team has at least one, so should the clear cut greatest not be in the Hall of Fame? Even if you find handedness arbitrary, he stacks up extremely well to every true reliever currently enshrined except for Mariano Rivera. Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, I'd argue that Wagner was as good or better than all of them. When you look at that group of six of the greatest non-Rivera relievers of all time, he may be second to last in fWAR because he's a bit behind in innings, but he's first in ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, strikeout rate, and a host of other things. 11.2 bad postseason innings aside, Billy Wagner is a clear-cut Hall of Famer who should have been voted in years ago.

Pretty easy YES: OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
This is another one that I don't have to think too hard about. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he hit just .214/.314/.420 (a 93 wRC+) and put up just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from 2007-2012. And admittedly, that's no small piece either, as he was still 29 years old on Opening Day in 2007. But what Jones did in the prime of his career, from 1998-2006, warrants a Hall of Fame selection on its own. Aside from being quite possibly the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, he hit .270/.347/.513 (119 wRC+) with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, putting up the second-most fWAR in all of baseball behind only Barry Bonds and ahead of third place Bobby Abreu by a long shot. So we can compare this profile a bit to Omar Vizquel, who had much more longevity, and I still think Jones comes out way ahead. Vizquel was one of the greatest defensive shortstops ever (and therefore one of the greatest defenders ever), but his career 83 wRC+ meant he was fully 17% below league average in offensive production, or in other words, a liability. Jones, meanwhile, had a 111 career wRC+ that made him 11% above league average, or in other words, a very solid contributor if not a slugger. Attach that bat to arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever and you have a pretty easy Hall of Fame profile.

Borderline, but YES: 3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
Regular season: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games.
Bonds and Clemens are their own cases, and I think Curt Schilling and Billy Wagner are pretty black and white Hall of Famers to me. Andruw Jones is not quite black and white but I'm still very comfortable with that yes. Scott Rolen is where it starts to get a little more gray, though I do fall on the side of a yes vote here. You could argue that when watching him play throughout the late 90's and 00's, nobody sat back and thought "man, we're watching a Hall of Famer!" Maybe in 2004, when he hit .314/.409/.598 with 34 home runs and his typical elite defense, but otherwise, he looked on the surface like a great candidate for the Hall of Very Good. But when you pull the camera back, I think you get a much, much better case than you might think. He was always a high level defender, and from 1997-2004, he posted a wRC+ of 121 or better every year, meaning even at his worst he was still a 21% better hitter than league average over a span of eight years. That exceptional consistency with the bat means that he was always a true impact piece in the lineup every day for the better part of a decade, and he popped for 126 again in 2006 and 2010. He finished with 300+ home runs, 500+ doubles, and 100+ stolen bases if you like counting stats, and I really struggle to see a better combination of offense and defense on this ballot among non-PED players. I won't die on the hill that Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer like I will for the players above him here, but that's a damn good case if you ask me and it's enough for my vote.

Borderline, but YES: OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is another one in the gray area where I won't die on this hill, but he gets my vote. He would seem to fit the "borderline case that gets flipped to 'no' by PED's," but it's a little murkier than that. I've read into the PED allegations against him and while I'm no investigative journalist, I'm not sold he did them. Maybe he did, and honestly it's probably better than 50%, but I just don't see enough evidence to "convict" him and leave him off my ballot. So because of that, I'm not going to factor PED's into my vote and instead I'll just go off the numbers, which lean "yes" for me. 500+ home runs, nearly 500 doubles, 250+ stolen bases, and reasonably close to 3000 hits means he has the counting stats. He finished pretty darn close to a career .300/.400/.500 line despite a very long, 22 year career even by Hall of Fame standards. He had four different seasons where he was worth 6.5 or more fWAR despite playing crappy defense, and in those seasons he posted incredible wRC+'s of 172, 185, 173, and 163, so he certainly looked like a Hall of Famer for sustained periods throughout his career, unlike Scott Rolen above him. Between the career achievement and the absolute battering ram he proved to be at his best, I'm willing to ignore the poor defense and say that one of the game's better hitters of all time deserves enshrinement.

Borderline, but YES: DH David Ortiz (1997-2016)
Regular season: 541 HR, .286/.380/.552, 17 SB, 140 wRC+, 51.0 fWAR in 2408 games.
Postseason: 17 HR, .289/.404/.543, 0 SB, 144 wRC+ in 85 games.
David Ortiz is in the same boat as Gary Sheffield for me when it comes to PED's. He's accused and he probably took them, but again, there's not nearly enough evidence to say for sure and I'm not going to hold him out of the Hall based on that. Now interestingly, fWAR does not love his career achievement and puts him more in the realm of Jimmy Rollins (49.4) and Mark Teixeira (44.8) than up with Rolen (69.9), Jones (67.0), and Sheffield (62.1). And I can see where that comes from, because he didn't play defense and even in terms of his hitting he was often banged up, only once playing more than 151 games in a season and sitting out more than twenty games in more than half the seasons he played. Still, there's no denying that Big Papi was a special player and a special hitter. Despite being banged up, he was extremely consistent with the bat when he was on the field and put up fifteen consecutive seasons of twenty or more home runs from 2002-2016, all the while maintaining on-base percentages near or above .400. Only once in his twenty year career, during a ten game cup of coffee with the Twins in 1999, was he less than a league average hitter. From 2003-2016, he was at least 34% better in twelve of fourteen seasons. Add in his playoff resume, which includes helping break the curse in 2004 (he hit .400/.515/.764! in that postseason) and an overall line every bit as good as his regular season numbers, and I think he gets pushed over the hump. Public image is probably the last thing I look at but it certainly doesn't hurt that he was one of the most beloved players in Red Sox history and was not only the face of the franchise, but is probably the face of the DH position for all time.

Borderline, but YES: OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez is a tough one. Unlike Gary Sheffield and David Ortiz, it's pretty clear-cut that he used PED's, so that would mean he should only go into the Hall of Fame if he has a pretty clear-cut case on the numbers alone. Is his case clear-cut? If it's not, I think it's pretty close to clear, and at the very least he's probably better than "borderline," which would automatically disqualify him in my book given the PED's. There's no way to quantify what effect the PED's had on his numbers, and I'm really 50-50 but I feel fairly comfortable saying he would have been a Hall of Famer anyways. There are only five players in history that can match or better all three legs of Manny's slash line: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. Throw in the home run total and it's just Ruth. He's a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+ despite playing in an offensively-charged environment, posting a mark of 140 or better fifteen times in sixteen years. So for a decade and a half, he was an elite hitter at almost all times. Throw in a very solid postseason track record, and I think I have just enough to get over his poor defense and PED suspension.

Literally 51-49 YES: OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 20 games.
I don't think a case can get any more borderline than Bobby Abreu. Like Scott Rolen, he never looked like a Hall of Famer while he was playing, but again, pulling the camera back a bit helps his case. From 1998-2006, his high on-base percentages and above average power meant he never posted less than a 128 wRC+, and he actually had seven consecutive seasons with more than five fWAR. Unlike Rolen, he doesn't have a standout glove to back up those offensive numbers, but he was a very strong baserunner that stole 400 bases for his career and impacted the game with his acumen. Really, Abreu made up for never having a true Hall of Fame-caliber season (save for maybe 1999 or 2000 if you're feeling generous) by just consistently impacting the game in a lot of ways, at least offensively. I would feel more comfortable with Abreu here if he had an average glove instead of a mediocre one, but he was enough of a hitter and a baserunner to give himself a very good shot. If I'm going to penalize borderline HOF guys like Sammy Sosa for using PED's, then I should give a second look to guys who didn't, and I think Abreu's warrants a yes vote.

Eventually, but for now NO: SS Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 76 games.
Alex Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer, and one day (possibly even next year) I will give him my hypothetical vote. For most of the reasons outlined in my steroid primer from last year, I think he belongs there despite being a convicted cheater. But that doesn't mean I have to ignore the cheating or pretend it doesn't matter, so I feel comfortable making him wait a year or two for my support. That said, the guy is one of the greatest shortstops/third basemen of all time, put up over 100 career WAR, hit 30+ home runs in thirteen consecutive seasons, and had five different seasons with at least 9.0 fWAR. You can dislike the guy and recognize that cheating might have given him a little extra edge but still respect that he is an inner-circle Hall of Famer.

Very close, but NO: 1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
Todd Helton is probably the first player off my ballot, and what he did from 1999-2005 really is amazing – he hit .341/.442/.621 over 1092 games and seven seasons. If we're talking about the Hall of Fame for a first baseman playing all of his home games at Coors Field, the bar is going to be extremely high, and that certainly meets and exceeds that bar. But the decline was very sharp: from 2006 (his age-33 season) onwards to the end of his career, he hit just .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in eight years. I'm not going to knock an on-base percentage near .400 in his post-prime years, but again, he's a first baseman playing at Coors. Andruw Jones had a similar career arc and in his paragraph I argued that his early-career success was enough to push him into the Hall, but Jones' peak lasted nine years while Helton's lasted seven, which for me is just enough of a difference to let Jones in but not Helton. Seven years of elite hitting is certainly enough to get the conversation going, but when he lacks much else on his resume – whether that's with the glove or the fact that he never did anything in the postseason (not his fault but also doesn't help his case) – he falls just short in my opinion.

Very close, but NO: LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Though he did allow a lot of baserunners, his peripherals back up his strong performance. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. However, aside from those couple of strong years, I don't know how often teams would see he was pitching tomorrow and think "uh oh, we got Pettitte next." Of course nobody looked forward to facing him, but I think his value was much more of a high-level supporting role to better teammates than as a true star that deserves enshrinement among the game's all time greats.

Close, but NO: OF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007)
Regular season: 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR in 2354 games.
Postseason: 2 HR, .245/.403/.415, 1 SB, 110 wRC+ in 15 games.
Sammy Sosa is the only player this year to be excluded by my PED rule, being that juicers with borderline cases don't get in. Had he been clean, I think I would put Sosa in fairly easily, but it still wouldn't be a clear-cut case given his low on-base percentages and the fact that his defense deteriorated pretty rapidly when his power began to take off. Ten consecutive seasons of 35+ home runs and four straight with 50+ is as impressive a power statement as anybody on this ballot not named Bonds, but it's a very one-dimensional case. A career walk rate under 10% and low batting averages kept his career OBP below .350, and only twice in his career did he crack .400. A career 124 wRC+ puts him in the company of Bobby Abreu (129), Jeff Kent (123), and Scott Rolen (122), with Kent falling short on my ballot despite being clean, Abreu very very barely making it, and Rolen bringing a very strong glove.

Closer than I thought, but NO: RHP Joe Nathan (1999-2016)
Regular season: 2.87 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 976/344 K/BB in 923.1 innings.
Postseason: 8.10 ERA, 5.68 FIP, 2.20 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB in 10 innings.
I originally didn't put much thought into Joe Nathan, but when I went back and looked a little closer, it's a pretty strong case. For me, relievers have the highest bar to clear, but for a while throughout Nathan's career, he was clearing that bar. From 2003-2009, he put up a 2.04 ERA, a 2.56 FIP, and a 0.95 WHIP in nearly 500 innings of work, striking out over 30% of his opponents along the way. That compares nicely to other primes I've highlighted above, such as with Curt Schilling (1996-2004), Andruw Jones (1998-2006), and Todd Helton (1999-2005), though you'll notice Schilling and Jones (who got my vote) were at the top of their game for nine years while Helton and Nathan (who did not) saw their primes last seven years. It's really unfortunate that 2010 Tommy John surgery brought his prime to a close, because after ramping back up in 2011 he was close to his old self with the Rangers in 2012 and 2013, and that puts him back in the conversation for me. He did, as it turns out, finish fifth all time among relievers in RE24 behind only Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Goose Gossage, and Trevor Hoffman, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame, as is the next man behind him (Lee Smith). I may consider him on future ballots, but for now the fact that he really didn't catch his stride as a major league pitcher until he was 28 really hurts him in that by the time he came down from his peak, he didn't have much opportunity to pad the stats, as well as his lack of postseason success (8.10 ERA in ten innings), means he just misses. For now he's the closer on the Hall of Very Good team.

Close, but NO: 2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008)
Regular season: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games.
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games.
If Andy Pettitte is the starting pitcher and Joe Nathan is the closer for the Hall of Very Good team, Jeff Kent can be the second baseman. With eight consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs and 30+ doubles, ten consecutive seasons with a wRC+ of 120 or higher (sixteen straight at at least league average), and a true Hall of Fame-caliber season in 2000 (33 HR, .334/.424/.596, 159 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR), it's a very good resume. He hit well in the postseason, too, and stuck around long enough to pick up nearly 2500 hits, nearly 400 home runs, and well over 500 doubles. But all in all, it feels just a little bit light to me. Great credentials, a case certainly worth listening to, but I feel much better discussing him among the great second basemen of the era than among the great second basemen of all time.

Interesting, but NO: LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
I'm not mistaking Mark Buehrle for a Hall of Famer for many of the same reasons as Andy Pettitte, but it's still a fun case to look at. He topped 200 innings in fourteen, nearly fifteen consecutive seasons, and only once did his ERA rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. A model of consistency, he was also an excellent defender and worked at a quick pace, something pitchers today can certainly learn from. The fact that he had no true Hall of Fame-caliber seasons (maybe 2005 if you're feeling generous) and pitched the majority of his career in a weaker AL Central hurts his case, and in the end, he probably belongs right next to Pettitte in the Hall of Very Good rotation.

Interesting, but NO: RHP Tim Hudson (1999-2015)
Regular season: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 2080/917 K/BB in 3126.2 innings.
Postseason: 1-4, 3.69 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 53/22 K/BB in 75.2 innings.
Here's another starter for the Hall of Very Good. Tim Hudson experienced more ups and downs in his career than the ultra-consistent Mark Buehrle, but the ups did look more HOF-worthy than Buehrle ever did. He had a three year stretch from 2001-2003 in which he put up a 3.02 ERA over an MLB-leading 713.1 innings and later popped for a couple more big seasons in 2007 and 2010, but ultimately he never quite had the sustained dominance necessary for a pitcher to reach the Hall of Fame in my book.

Pretty clear NO: SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
Recent allegations surfacing about Omar Vizquel means he gets to take the crown from Curt Schilling as the worst human being on the ballot this year. Personally, I don't have to worry about them much because he wasn't a Hall of Famer in my book anyways. I mentioned in Andruw Jones' paragraph that he complemented an elite glove with a strong bat (111 wRC+), whereas Vizquel's elite glove came with a liability of a bat (83 wRC+). In an era where guys were bashing home runs over the fence left and right, Vizquel was a contact hitter that still only posted a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never even reached .400. He played 24 seasons across four different decades but only twice was he an above average hitter by wRC+ (115 in 1999 and 102 in 2002). The glove may have been great, but he was a black hole in lineups that needed to produce a lot of runs to be competitive. We can point to Ozzie Smith as a comparison but Ozzie had a career wRC+ of 90 (seven points better than Vizquel) and had seven above average seasons to Vizquel's two.

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Hall of Fame 2021: My Ballot

I find the process of determining Hall-worthiness just as difficult as I find it interesting. There are so many complicating factors such as peak performance vs longevity, park effects and performance relative to league average, and of course, performance-enhancing drugs. Not only whether the drugs should disqualify a player, but whether the player took them and for how long. Below are my thoughts on this year's ballot, player by player, starting with those I would vote for. See my thoughts on steroids here.

Yes Votes

RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007, 70.0% in 2020)
Career: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB in 3261 IP
Postseason: 11-2, 2.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 120/25 K/BB in 133.1 IP
Best season (1997): 17-11, 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 319/58 K/BB in 254.1 IP

To me, Curt Schilling is one of two the clear-cut Hall of Famers on this ballot, along with Billy Wagner. If I could only vote for one, I would give Schilling a hard look. He may have never won a Cy Young award, but from 1996-2004, he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball at a time when Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson were at their peaks. He had eight qualified seasons with a sub-3.30 ERA (most of which were during the Steroid Era), reached 300 strikeouts three times and narrowly missed a fourth, and appeared in twenty different seasons from 1988-2007. In the postseason, he was on another level, earning NLCS MVP honors in 1993 and a World Series MVP in 2001, holding a 2.23 ERA over 133.1 innings against the best lineups in baseball. He was a stud in the regular season, a stud in the postseason, and stuck around for a long time. He's a Hall of Famer, and I really don't care that he's a bit of a whacko off the field. It's the Baseball Hall of Fame, not the Public Image Hall of Fame.

LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010, 31.7% in 2020)
Career: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 422 SV, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 IP
Postseason: 1-1, 10.03 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 3 SV, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 IP
Best season (2003): 1-4, 1.78 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 44 SV, 105/23 K/BB in 86 IP
Many people are hesitant to put relievers in the Hall of Fame, and I completely understand that stance. Right now, the only pure relievers in the Hall from the modern era of relief pitching are Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and maybe Goose Gossage as you count that as the modern era. Rivera is obviously in a class of his own, but if the other four are Hall of Famers, I see absolutely no argument to keep out Billy Wagner, who is far and away the greatest left handed reliever of all time. I mean, the numbers are ridiculous. He threw 903 innings, but even setting the minimum at 700, no pitcher in history can match his 33.2% strikeout rate, nor his .184 opponents' batting average, nor his 82% strand rate. Not even Mariano Rivera. Relievers are also notoriously inconsistent, but only once in Wagner's sixteen year career did he post an ERA above 2.85. When he retired in 2010 at the age of 39, he was still at the top of his game, posting a 1.47 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 104/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings, indicating that he still had more left in the tank. So Wagner struggled in the postseason over a tiny 11.2 inning postseason sample, but that's not nearly enough to keep him out in my book. And the 31.7% he got in 2020 is absurdly low.

CF Andruw Jones (1996-2012, 19.4% in 2020)
Career: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 108 wRC+ in 76 games
Best season (2000): 36 HR, .303/.366/.541, 21 SB, 127 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR in 161 games
Andruw Jones, like Billy Wagner, hasn't gotten nearly the love he deserves in the vote, falling shy of 20% last year. Maybe he's not a Hall of Famer (I think he is), but to me it's a pretty plain fact that he deserves at least 40% or so. Some might cringe at the idea of putting a player who hit .254 with a .337 on-base percentage in the Hall of Fame, and if elected, his .254 average would have him second only to Ray Schalk (.253) for the lowest in HoF history. Still, I see him as fully deserving. Jones was arguably the greatest defensive outfielder ever to play the game, and if some believe that Willie Mays or Devon White was better, than we can safely say he's a slam-dunk top five defensive outfielder ever, no debate. As I'll argue below with Omar Vizquel, though, defensive prowess isn't enough alone to get you in. No matter, because from 1998-2007, Jones was also one of the better hitters in the game, with ten straight seasons of more than 25 home runs, ten straight with 154 games played, eight seasons with a wRC+ of 112, and a career high of 51 home runs in 2005. On their own, those numbers don't put him in the Hall, but when we're talking about an all-time great defender, I think absolutely. fWAR gives another compelling argument, as he reached 4.9 in ten straight seasons and topped 7.0 three times, but I understand some don't buy into that statistic and I think the case is pretty compelling even without it. All time great defender, over 400 home runs, nearly 400 doubles, and over 150 stolen bases puts him in for me.

3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012, 35.3% in 2020)
Career: 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR in 2038 games
Postseason: 5 HR, .220/.302/.376, 0 SB, 78 wRC+ in 39 games
Best season (2004): 34 HR, .314/.409/.598, 4 SB, 159 wRC+, 9.0 fWAR in 142 games
On the surface, Rolen doesn't look like a Hall of Famer. He was a very good hitter with "just" 316 home runs, an unremarkable .281 batting average, and a sub-.500 slugging percentage, a very good defender who picked up eight Gold Glove awards but wasn't quite Andruw Jones or Omar Vizquel out there, and only topped 150 games in a season five times. That sounds like a slam-dunk "Hall of Very Good" case to me. But the more you think about it, the better the package looks. The era in which he played was chock full of superstars, but across baseball, how many players in the late 90's/00's could match both his bat and his glove? Maybe Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr., but Griffey was already slowing down by the time Rolen came around and you'd have to really love A-Rod's glove to call it better than Rolen's. Rolen really was a superb defender that could impact the game from third base throughout his career, making entire infields around him better from the late 90's Phillies to even the early 10's Reds. On top of that, I think his bat was more than just "good." From 1997-2004, he had more than 20 home runs and at least a .357 on-base percentage in all eight seasons, then topped those numbers again in 2006. Rolen had six seasons in his career in which he hit 25 home runs with at least a .370 on-base percentage, and narrowly missed a seventh. In 2004, he had a truly Hall of Fame-worthy season with 34 home runs and a .314/.409/.598 slash line to go with elite defense, which caps it off for me. I won't die on the hill that Rolen is a Hall of Famer, but to me, his combination of a very good glove, a very good bat, and an elite 2004 season are just enough to push him over the edge.

RF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014, 5.5% in 2020)
Career: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 20 games
Best season (1999): 20 HR, .335/.446/.549, 27 SB, 6.3 fWAR in 152 games
I've had a fairly similar thought process on Bobby Abreu as I had on Scott Rolen. On the surface, he looks like he belongs in the Hall of Very Good. He hit fewer than 300 home runs, slugged well below .500, and didn't have Rolen's elite defense. However, the longer I look at his case, the more I buy in. There's just something to be said for consistency, and if anything, Abreu was consistent. In 13 straight seasons from 1998-2010, Abreu topped 150 games, hit at least 15 home runs, stole at least 19 bases, clubbed at least 29 doubles, and never posted an on-base percentage below .352. Zoom in a little bit closer to his peak, and the numbers get even more impressive. In a seven year stretch from 1999-2005, he hit at least 20 home runs, stole at least 22 bases, clubbed at least 35 doubles, and never had an OBP below .393. There were no true superstar seasons in there, but for a very long period of time without exception, Abreu was a true power, speed, and on-base threat, and as far as we know, he did it cleanly in an era where many players did not. As with Rolen, I won't die on this hill, but I see a very compelling case here, especially with that .395 on-base percentage that topped .420 three times.

RF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009, 30.5% in 2020)
Career: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games
Best season (1996): 42 HR, .314/.465/.624, 16 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 161 games
Gary Sheffield might have the most complicated Hall of Fame case on the ballot, and he was the last player that I was able to come to a decision on. I'm extremely on the fence but decided to put him in. Firstly, I'll address Sheffield's reputation as a locker room cancer – while it obviously doesn't help his case, I'm not going to hold it against him. I'm here to judge how he impacted the game, not whether I'd want to have a beer with him. Next off, there's the question of steroids. He admitted to using "the cream" on his bum knee in the early 2000's, though claims (somewhat unconvincingly) that he didn't know it was a steroid. He was also named in the Mitchell Report, but to my knowledge, there's no concrete proof that he ever did anything beyond using "the cream." I'll come back to the steroids when I'm done with his accomplishments
Steroids aside, I see Sheffield as a Hall of Famer. As with Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu, I wouldn't die on that hill, but I feel fully comfortable, in fact more comfortable than with those two. Even if he was a poor defender, we have a man who crushed over 500 home runs with an on-base percentage near .400. He had eight seasons with over 30 home runs, had six qualified seasons with at least a 154 wRC+, had an on-base percentage over .400 in eight straight seasons, and was one of the very best hitters in baseball from 1995-2003. To me, that's a very convincing Hall of Fame resume. Now, let's talk steroids. If he was more borderline in his case, the steroids would disqualify him. And if he used steroids more than just "the cream" for a few years, I wouldn't vote for him either. But we don't (or at least I don't) know the answer to that question, and I believe in "innocent until proven guilty." After a lot of careful thought, he gained my vote, but just barely.

LF Barry Bonds (1986-2007, 60.7% in 2020)
Career: 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR in 2986 games
Postseason: 9 HR, .245/.433/.503, 9 SB, 141 wRC+ in 48 games
Best season (2001): 73 HR, .328/.515/.863, 13 SB, 235 wRC+, 12.5 fWAR in 153 games
I don't need to sell anybody on Barry Bonds' numbers. Steroids aside, you can count on one hand the players that can even compare to what Bonds did. I also don't need to sell anybody that he would have been a Hall of Famer without steroids. If you think he might not have been, you're grossly underselling his elite batting eye, approach at the plate, hand-eye coordination, and early career speed. So the only question here is whether you think steroids should disqualify one of the greatest players of all time, which I discussed here. In summary, as much as I hate it, cheating has always been a part of baseball and on top of that, it was encouraged during the Steroid Era.
Okay, now that that's done with, let's just marvel at some of Bonds' career stats. He is the all time leader in home runs (762) and walks (2558) and ranks behind only Babe Ruth in fWAR (164.4). He's third all time in runs scored (2227), fifth in wRC+ (173), and sixth in RBI (1996). From 1928-2000, not a single player could tally more than 11.8 fWAR in a season. Over the course of four seasons from 2001-2004, Bonds did it three times. By wRC+, three of the top four seasons in all of history belong to Bonds, including number one (244 in 2002). In that four season stretch from 2001-2004, Bonds clobbered 209 home runs and slashed .349/.559/.809 with a 232 wRC+ and 47.3 fWAR in 573 games. That 47.3 fWAR over four seasons was more than Mark Grace (45.5), Nellie Fox (45.2), Kirby Puckett (44.9), or Dale Murphy (44.3) had in their entire careers. It cannot possibly be overstated how good Barry Bonds was at hitting baseballs.

RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007, 61.0% in 2020)
Career: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB in 4916.2 IP
Postseason: 12-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB in 199 IP
Best season (1997): 21-7, 2.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 292/68 K/BB in 264 IP
With Roger Clemens, we have a similar story to Barry Bonds above. He's not a top-five player of all time like his counterpart, but steroids aside, he is far and away qualified. There's no doubt in anybody's mind that he would be a Hall of Famer without steroids. And given that he was up against lineups full of cheating players, it's hard to blame him for cheating, as much as I hate it. Read my full thoughts on steroids here.
Steroids aside, we can appreciate Clemens' numbers. He topped 210 innings fourteen times in his career, had eleven qualified seasons with an ERA below 3.00, and topped 230 strikeouts eight times. In terms of career strikeouts, only Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson have more, but Clemens had a lower ERA than both of them. He's seventh on the all time list with 707 career starts, too. Maybe not quite in the all time top tier, but he's certainly one of the all time greats.

No Votes

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013, 29.2% in 2020)
Career: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games
Best season (2000): 42 HR, .372/.463/.698, 5 SB, 162 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 160 games
Todd Helton only narrowly misses my ballot. From 1999-2005, he was one of the very best hitters in baseball, slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs and a 152 wRC+ in 1092 games. That wRC+, which corrects for the "Coors effect," was the sixth best in baseball in that span over no small sample size. Narrow it by one year to 2000-2005, and his 156 wRC+ was fifth best in baseball to start the millennium. That's absolutely a Hall of Fame piece of the resume, but for a first baseman, I'm looking for just a bit more. From 2006 onwards, he hit .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs and a 112 wRC+ over 968 games, which as a first baseman in Coors Field, meant he only provided 10.6 fWAR from his age-32 season onwards. So we're left with a tale of two careers with Helton, beginning with an exceptional run from 1999-2005 followed by an unremarkable one from 2006-2013. Had he played shortstop or even a strong right field, I think that first half of his career would be enough to push him into the Hall, but the bar is higher for first basemen and Helton falls just short on the longevity aspect.

RHP Tim Hudson (1999-2015, first year on ballot)
Career: 222-133, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2080/917 K/BB in 3126.2 IP
Postseason: 1-4, 3.69 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 53/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP
Best season (2003): 16-7, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 162/61 K/BB in 240 IP
Tim Hudson is another one who is very close. Starting straight from his rookie year, he was a true standout in the Oakland rotation from 1999-2003 and popped back for big seasons with the Braves in 2007, 2010, and 2011. Outside of those seasons, he was still a very solid #2/#3-type starter, and in the end you have a really nice profile as a pitcher with ten qualified seasons with an ERA below 3.60. However, save for maybe his best season in 2003, Hudson was never a star. That's not straight up disqualifying, as we saw with Bobby Abreu, but I'm going to need either more consistency or more longevity if I'm going to overlook that. Abreu had the consistency, Scott Rolen had that huge 2004 season, and a guy like Derek Jeter had the longevity that just bumped them into the Hall. Hudson, as a whole, as a resume that's just a little bit light. We knew we were watching a perennial All Star when Hudson was on the mound, don't think anybody thought they were watching a Hall of Famer. In my opinion, we weren't.

LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015, first year on ballot)
Career: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 IP
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 IP
Best season (2005): 16-8, 3.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 149/40 K/BB in 236.2 IP
I still don't think Mark Buehrle is a Hall of Famer, but his case actually gets a lot more intriguing the more you look at it. On the surface, he was a pitch-to-contact guy who never had an ERA below 3.12 and finished at 3.81 for his career while spending most of it in the weaker AL Central. He was never a true ace for more than a few months at a time, but the key here is consistency. Buehrle put in fourteen consecutive seasons of at least 200 innings, and narrowly missed a fifteenth with 198.2 in 2015. In those fifteen seasons from 2001-2015, only once did he post an ERA above 4.28, and never did he walk more than 6.2% of his opponents. He was an elite defender, was the best pitcher on the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox team, and threw a perfect game in 2009. There is really something to be said for a decade and a half of exceptional reliability and exceptional consistency, and I really hope he doesn't fall off the ballot in the first year. However, he was never elite for even one season, so he won't get my vote.

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013, 11.3% in 2020)
Career: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 IP
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 IP
Best season (2005): 17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 171/41 K/BB in 222.1 IP
Andy Pettitte is yet another pitcher who just misses for me. He put up excellent seasons in 1997 and 2005 and was very good in a few other seasons, and there's something to be said for the longevity it takes to put up ten seasons of 200+ innings and three more of 185+. He was also on the mound for 276.2 innings in the postseason, holding his own with a 3.81 ERA against plenty of very strong lineups. That's all great, but for the majority of his career, Pettitte was much more a steady than imposing force in the Yankees and Astros rotations. In more than half of his qualified seasons, his ERA was above 4.00, and he regularly got hit around with career opponents' batting average of .269 and a 1.35 WHIP. The longevity is great, the important role on some great teams is a plus, and he popped for a couple of great seasons, but Andy Pettitte is a #3 starter at heart. The Hall of Fame is for aces and long-term, consistent #2's.

2B Jeff Kent (1992-2008, 27.5% in 2020)
Career: 377 HR, .290/.356/.500, 94 SB, 123 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR in 2298 games
Postseason: 9 HR, .276/.340/.500, 1 SB, 119 wRC+ in 49 games
Best season (2000): 33 HR, .334/.424/.596, 12 SB, 159 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 159 games
Jeff Kent is another one that's really close, one that I gave significant thought to before ultimately deciding "no." He put up nine consecutive seasons of more than 20 home runs and at least 34 doubles from 1997-2005 and topped 30 home runs three times. In 2000 and 2002, he popped for exceptional seasons and won the NL MVP Award in the former while reaching the World Series in the latter. But while he was an extra base hit machine for the better part of a decade, popping for an OBP as high as .424 in 2000, is that enough? I see a nice, sustained peak, but it's the kind that would need a little more longevity sandwiched on either side of it. Outside of that 1997-2005 stretch, he was solid but unspectacular leading up to it and didn't play after 2008. Seventeen years is a nice career, especially since he played over 100 games in each, but I would have liked to have seen just a little bit more given his peak was more "great" than "elite."

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012, 52.6% in 2020)
Career: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games
Best season (1999): 5 HR, .333/.397/.436, 42 SB, 115 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 144 games
Omar Vizquel follows similar logic to Andruw Jones as an all-time great defender whose offensive numbers don't quite stack up. However, the difference between Vizquel and Jones is that Jones hit 434 home runs, while Vizquel was a non-factor in the lineup. His combination of exceptional glovework and longevity buys the bat as much slack as possible, but in my opinion, it's not enough. From 1989-2007, he had sixteen full seasons out of nineteen, itself an accomplishment, but his bat was a virtual black hole in the Seattle, Cleveland, and San Francisco lineups around him at a time when offense was at a premium. In those sixteen full seasons, his bat was only league average or better twice, reaching double digits in home runs just once. His best offensive attribute was his speed, and he deployed it well at times with four straight seasons of at least 35 stolen bases from 1996-1999, but he never registered a .400 on-base percentage and only twice even got above .362. I'm sorry, but even if he came within 123 hits of 3000, his bat was mediocre at best.

LF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011, 28.2% in 2020)
Career: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games
Best season (1999): 44 HR, .333/.442/.663, 2 SB, 172 wRC+, 7.5 fWAR in 147 games
I briefly touched on my thoughts on Manny Ramirez in my steroid primer, but I'll go back over them here. Taken objectively, his numbers make him a pretty clear-cut Hall of Famer, even if his defense was poor. 555 career home runs, twelve 30 homer seasons, ten with an on-base percentage over .400, and plenty of postseason performance add up to a Hall of Fame resume. From 1994-2010, he put up seventeen straight seasons with at least a 120 wRC+, and fifteen of those were 140 or higher. But in 2009, he failed a PED test, and in 2011, he failed another. Both were late in his career, after he had already eclipsed 500 home runs and proven himself a Hall of Famer. If it had been just the 2009 test, perhaps I could give him the benefit of the doubt and buy that he had just made a mistake. But after the 2011 test, his whole career gets called into question. Plenty of his best production came during the Steroid Era – was he cheating then? He doesn't have the Bonds or Clemens-like resume that proves him to be a clear-cut Hall of Famer with or without steroids. He tested positive twice after the rules were clearly laid out, so I'm out.

RF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007, 13.9% in 2020)
Career: 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR in 2354 games
Postseason: 2 HR, .245/.403/.415, 1 SB, 110 wRC+ in 15 games
Best season (2001): 64 HR, .328/.437/.737, 0 SB, 186 wRC+, 9.9 fWAR in 160 games
Sosa is another name that falls victim to the steroid problem. The allegations against him aren't as strong as they are against Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Manny Ramirez, but nonetheless they're stronger than those against Gary Sheffield, whom I voted for. Sosa reportedly tested positive in 2003, and of course there was the corked bat incident. If he had built a convincing, Ramirez-like case, I might have put more consideration into it, but unfortunately he's fairly borderline anyways. From 1998-2001, when he was likely juicing, he put together one of the most impressive offensive stretches in baseball history, slashing .310/.396/.662 with 243 home runs, including totals of 66, 63, 50, and 64. However, for the most part, Sosa was a one dimensional player. He hit a lot of home runs, but he only twice topped a .400 on-base percentage, never put up 40 doubles in a season, and provided very little defensive value. That one tool would likely be enough to carry him into the Hall if it had been clean, but his only tool was tainted and he doesn't have enough to make up for it.