The Orioles' system is just night and day better than it was just a year and a half ago. Before the Manny Machado deal, the system was pretty much barren, but while acquisitions like Dean Kremer, Yusniel Diaz, Rylan Bannon, and Bruce Zimmermann have been nice, it's actually been homegrown talent that has given this system such a complete makeover. They've done a really good job with the recent group of college pitchers they've drafted, and now that group of Keegan Akin, Zac Lowther, and Michael Baumann, in addition to guys like Kremer, Zimmermann, and Alex Wells, looks like it can impact the non-existent Orioles rotation as soon as 2020. A pair of first round high school arms in DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez look like they could be better than that whole group above them. On the offensive side, Adley Rutschman is clearly the headliner, and Ryan Mountcastle has been around forever, but a few other recent draftees like Adam Hall, Gunnar Henderson, Zach Watson, and Kyle Stowers look like they could become a nice offensive core down the line.
Affiliates: AAA Norfolk Tides, AA Bowie BaySox, High A Frederick Keys, Class A Delmarva Shorebirds, short season Aberdeen IronBirds, complex level GCL and DSL Orioles
Catcher
- Adley Rutschman (2020 Age: 22): Rutschman was just drafted first overall back in June, but he's probably already the top catching prospect in the game despite an unremarkable pro debut where he slashed .254/.351/.423 with four home runs and a 27/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League, short season Aberdeen, and Class A Delmarva. There's really nothing not to love with his all-around skill set. The switch hitter has plenty of pop from both sides, and he has no problems getting to it with excellent plate discipline and feel for the barrel. That leads to an easy projection of 25-30 home runs annually, or more, with high on-base percentages which could make him a Buster Posey type of catcher with more power. Defensively, he has both the arm strength and overall glove work to be a true asset behind the plate, and he comes with all the work ethic and leadership skills you look for in a catcher. Of course, nobody is a sure thing, but there are really no holes in Rutschman's profile and he should work his way to the upper minors by the end of 2020 and be in the big leagues by 2021. For those who remember all the hype behind Matt Wieters coming up, Rutschman is easily the better prospect.
- Keep an eye on: Brett Cumberland, Maverick Handley
Corner Infield
- Ryan Mountcastle (2020 Age: 23): The bad news is that Mountcastle has tumbled down the defensive spectrum over the years, getting drafted as a shortstop before moving to third base and eventually to first base/outfield, but the good news is that he's kept on hitting along the way and his OPS has gone up each year in the minors, giving him enough bat to profile as a 1B/OF type. In 2019, he slashed .312/.344/.527 with 25 home runs and a 130/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AAA Norfolk, and he should be big league ready in early 2020. The book is pretty clear on Mountcastle at this point, as he uses his 6'3" frame to generate good power from the right side, and his advanced feel for the barrel helps him get to it consistently and hit lots of singles and doubles in addition to his home runs. He has an aggressive approach at the plate that limits his walks, so his high batting averages only translate into average on-base percentages, but he also doesn't strike out a whole lot and it hasn't affected his overall production at this point. There will likely be a learning curve as major league pitchers exploit that approach a bit at the next level, but I'd fully expect Mountcastle to hit 20-25 home runs annually with decent, batting average-driven on-base percentages.
- Andrew Daschbach (2020 Age: 22): The Orioles are really shallow at the corners behind Mountcastle, which could give 2019 eleventh round pick Andrew Daschbach the chance to break through. Daschbach, who signed above-slot out of Stanford, slashed .222/.349/.329 with three home runs and a 47/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games at short season Aberdeen, showing off a patient approach at the plate but not much else at this point. He's got a lot of power in his 6'3" frame, which enabled him to hit four home runs in a college game against Cal Poly back in May, and he's a patient enough hitter that he should be able to tap it consistently in pro ball. He will, however, have to cut down on his strikeouts, and as a first baseman-only, he'll have to hit consistently in order to have a shot. I doubt he ends up a starter, but he could be a useful platoon bat down the line.
- Keep an eye on: Jomar Reyes, J.C. Escarra, Jean Carlos Encarnacion
Middle Infield
- Rylan Bannon (2020 Age: 24): Bannon is a little guy, listed at just 5'7", but he hits for plenty of impact nonetheless and slashed .266/.345/.421 with eleven home runs and an 86/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk in 2019. Acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado deal, Bannon makes his power play up with a big leg kick and an all out, but under control, swing, and his advanced plate discipline helps him unload on the right pitches and maximize his hit tool. He might be a little stretched at shortstop, but he can handle both second and third base well and has a good shot at cracking the Orioles roster in 2020 given how shallow they are, well, everywhere. His profile might be more conducive to a career as a utility man, but I like him as a prospect and I wouldn't be surprised if he broke through for a little bit more.
- Mason McCoy (2020 Age: 25): McCoy was a sixth round senior sign out of Iowa in 2017, then after an unremarkable first full season in 2018 (.266/.331/.369 at Class A), he broke out with the bat in 2019 to put himself firmly in the Orioles' future infield picture. He slashed .379/.416/.509 with a pair of home runs and a 16/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games at High A Frederick, earning a quick promotion to AA Bowie and holding his own with a .266/.326/.343 line, two home runs, and an 84/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at the higher level. McCoy clearly does not have a ton of power, but he puts the bat on the ball consistently and uses his speed to add another dimension to his offensive game. He's also a strong defender that could stick at shortstop, but he'll more likely end up in a utility role where he fills in all around the infield with a light but playable bat. Even with the Orioles signing Jose Iglesias while I wrote this article, he should be able to crack the roster at some point in 2020.
- Adam Hall (2020 Age: 20-21): The Orioles took Hall in the second round out of an Ontario high school in 2017 with the expectation that he'd move slowly, which he has, but he's also hit well along the way. In 2019, he slashed .298/.385/.395 with five home runs, 33 stolen bases, and a 117/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Delmarva, a fitting line given his current skill set and a big improvement from where he was when he was drafted. Hall doesn't project for a ton of power, but the Orioles have streamlined his swing and he's getting better and better with his pitch recognition. That's helping him use his plus speed more, and he's now stolen 55 bases over the past two seasons. He's a good defender at shortstop, too, though with a limited ceiling with the bat, the Orioles are banking on him tightening up his strike zone judgement even more in hopes that he can eventually become a leadoff type.
- Gunnar Henderson (2020 Age: 18-19): Henderson was more of a first round talent, and though the Orioles drafted him with the first pick of the second round out of his Alabama high school, they gave him a first round bonus of $2.3 million to sign. As you might expect for a player coming out of rural Alabama, especially one a bit young for his draft class, he's understandably raw as a player, but he was making real progress as his senior year progressed and the Orioles loved his upside. He's extremely athletic at 6'3" and finds the barrel consistently from the left side, and once he fills out his frame, he'll likely hit for good power as well. Defensively, he's improving and could stick at shortstop, but he should still have the bat to profile at third base if he has to move there. Overall, it's hard to peg down exactly what he'll turn into, but that could be a shortstop with 20-25 home run power and high on-base percentages in the best case scenario. As a kid who won't turn 19 until June, he'll probably take significant time to get through the minors.
- Keep an eye on: Cadyn Grenier, Wilbis Santiago, Joseph Ortiz, Darell Hernaiz
Outfield
- Austin Hays (2020 Age: 24-25): Hays first reached the majors in 2017 and has played 41 games for the Orioles, but he's still two at bats shy of the rookie threshold and technically remains a prospect. It feels like a lifetime ago that he hit 32 home runs and slashed .329/.365/.593 in the minors back in 2017, as multiple injuries have kept him from establishing himself as a major leaguer at this point. In 2019, Hays slashed .248/.299/.464 with 17 home runs and an 83/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games across four levels, and overall in his 41 major league games he's slashed .266/.312/.453 with five home runs and a 29/9 strikeout to walk ratio. He might not have quite as much power as we thought he did in 2017, but there's no question he can impact the ball consistently and against high level pitching. He rarely walks, but he also doesn't strike out a ton, and the key to his success will be channeling that innate feel for the barrel and continuing to lift the ball consistently. If he can consistently impact the ball in the air, I think he'll find success and be a 20 homer bat for the Orioles. If pitchers can get him to roll over and force him into ground balls, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder. On his side is defense, as he's strong in right field and can handle center as well.
- Yusniel Diaz (2020 Age: 23): The Dodgers signed Diaz for $15.5 million out of Cuba in 2015 and had to pay an additional $15.5 million in penalty taxes, then they shipped him to the Orioles in the Manny Machado deal in 2018. 2019 was up and down for Diaz, as he slashed .265/.341/.464 with eleven home runs and a 75/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games, mostly at AA Bowie. He started slowly and missed time with a few injuries, but he started to heat up as the season went along. He's hit over power, but his big swing helps him get the most out of his power and he should be at least somewhat of an over the fence threat at the major league level. He finds the barrel easily and consistently, though the strike zone did get away from him occasionally in 2019 a bit more than it did in the past, and the key for him going forward will be tightening it up like he's capable of. He's also a good defender who should handle right field well, and he could push Hays over to center field if he hits like he's capable of. It feels like the common theme here is "like he's capable of," and that's intentional, because the real simple scouting report is that he's extremely talented but hasn't quite put it together yet. So we'll see, he'll be 23 for all of 2020.
- Ryan McKenna (2020 Age: 23): McKenna was a fourth round pick out of high school in eastern New Hampshire in 2015, and as you'd expect from a kid from the frozen north, it took him a little bit of time to figure things out. He busted out with the bat in 2018 by slashing .377/.467/.556 over 67 games at High A before a promotion up to AA, though he hasn't quite figured that level out yet. He slashed .239/.341/.338 in 60 games there in 2018, then in 2019, he slashed .232/.321/.365 with nine home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 121/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games, all with AA Bowie. He's a compact player at 5'11", but he's the kind of guy who gets the most out of what he has with a line drive approach and a knack for hard contact. His best tool is his speed, which helps him on both sides of the ball, and overall it's a really nice fourth outfielder package. If he can recapture just a little bit of whatever he did at High A in 2018, he should get there.
- Zach Watson (2020 Age: 22-23): Watson is one of the latest in a really talented group of outfielders to come through LSU recently, which also included Mikie Mahtook and prospects Jake Fraley (Mariners), Greg Deichmann (A's), and Antoine Duplantis (Mets). Drafted in the third round in 2019, he slashed .224/.295/.431 with five home runs and a 30/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at short season Aberdeen and Class A Delmarva in his pro debut. He's an extremely skinny kid with a lot of wiry strength and the feel for the barrel that enabled him to post high batting averages against quality pitching in the SEC and in the Cape Cod League, and the Orioles had him focus on turning that hard contact into playable power in his pro debut by putting the ball in the air.
- Kyle Stowers (2020 Age: 22): Stowers was actually drafted eight picks before Watson, in the second competitive balance round out of Stanford, and he went on to slash .216/.289/.377 with six home runs and a 53/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at short season Aberdeen. He was drafted for his bat, namely his power, as his game is pretty unspectacular everywhere else. He has an aggressive approach at the plate and had some swing and miss questions earlier in his Stanford career, but he improved in that regard in 2019 and shouldn't have a problem handling pro pitching. His power has been a bit streaky, so the Orioles will hope they can help him tap it more consistently without causing the strikeout rate to go up, which is entirely doable in my opinion. He has the upside of a guy who could hit 25-30 home runs annually, albeit with lower on-base percentages and fringe-average defense in left field.
- Johnny Rizer (2020 Age: 23): Rizer was a seventh rounder TCU in 2019, the culmination of an up and down college career that saw him start at Louisiana-Lafayette as a freshman, transfer to Blinn College in Texas, then struggle as a junior at TCU before catching his stride as a senior. He then slashed .308/.365/.456 with four home runs and a 45/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at short season Aberdeen and Class A Delmarva. His extremely successful debut showcased his innate ability to find the barrel from a quick left handed swing, though he'll likely never be a power hitter and will instead settle for line drives in the gaps. It's a fourth outfielder profile, but he's a definitely a sleeper given his lack of loud tools combined with his ability to make the most of what he has – not too dissimilar to Ryan McKenna, but without the plus speed.
- Keep an eye on: T.J. Nichting, Cole Billingsley
Starting Pitching
- Dean Kremer (2020 Age: 24): Kremer grew up in Stockton, California, but he's likely to become the first Israeli citizen to play in the majors. Originally drafted by the Dodgers in the 14th round out of UNLV in 2016, he came over in the Manny Machado deal and has been excellent in the Orioles' system, and in 2019 he posted a 3.72 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 122/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings at High A Frederick, AA Bowie, and AAA Norfolk. He has an ideal pitchers' frame at 6'3", and he sits in the low to mid 90's with his running fastball. He also adds a great curveball with a ton of movement as well as a distinct slider and a changeup, and he commands everything adequately enough. He probably needs either a little bit more refinement in his command or of his changeup in order to really succeed as a major league starter, both of which are entirely doable, but the Orioles will give him every chance to prove himself and he has a good shot at cracking the rotation at some point in early 2020 with mid-rotation upside.
- Keegan Akin (2020 Age: 25): Akin was a second rounder out of Western Michigan in 2016, and in 2019 he posted a 4.73 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 131/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.1 innings at AAA Norfolk, a hitter-friendly context. He's a 6' lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good, lateral-breaking slider and a changeup, all of which play up because of the angle he can put on them with his delivery. His command can be inconsistent but tends to be pretty sturdy, and overall it's probably a #4/#5 starter profile without a ton of upside. He might fit better in the bullpen long term, but the Orioles don't have too many major league starters at present and he'll get every chance to land in that rotation until he's perhaps bumped by some of the other advanced arms they have coming up through the system.
- Zac Lowther (2020 Age: 24): Lowther is a very similar prospect to Akin, just a year younger, and he was drafted in the second competitive balance round out of Xavier 2017. He's dominated ever since he reached pro ball with a career 2.26 ERA, and in 2019 he had a 2.55 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 154/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings at AA Bowie. Lowther, like Akin, is a stocky lefty with a low 90's fastball, though his is maybe a tick slower than Akin's, and like Akin, he relies more on the way the ball comes out of his hand than on pure stuff. He adds a good dropping curveball and a solid fading changeup, which he can command pretty well, and he gets really good extension from his 6'2" frame coming towards the plate that makes his stuff play up. I'd give Lowther the exact same projection as Akin, except he might have a bit higher of a ceiling/chance to stick in the rotation just based on the fact that he's had such consistent success throughout his time in the minors.
- Michael Baumann (2020 Age: 24): Baumann is more of the Dean Kremer cut, and he's had plenty of minor league success since being drafted in the third round out of Jacksonville in 2017, where he was teammates with Austin Hays. In 2019, he had a 2.98 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 142/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings at High A Frederick and AA Bowie, a nice follow-up to the strong year he had in A ball the year before. Baumann sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and it plays quicker due to his extension and 6'4" frame. He adds a slider, a curve, and a changeup, with the slider perhaps sticking out, though for the most part he uses his secondaries to play off of his fastball. His command has been a bit inconsistent, but it's improving and it's probably safely average at this point, so the last step for him is probably to just get more consistent with his secondary stuff and that command. He has some of the better upside between these top five, though he also carries some relief risk and could be an effective fastball/slider reliever who mixes in a changeup.
- Brandon Bailey (2020 Age: 25): Bailey has already changed organizations twice since being a sixth round pick out of Gonzaga in 2016, first from Oakland to Houston for Ramon Laureano in 2017 then onto Baltimore in the Rule 5 draft. That means he'll have to stick on the 26 man roster or be sent back to Houston in 2020, which means he might see time as both a starter and a reliever. In 2019, he had a 3.30 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 103/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in AA, showcasing pretty average stuff across the board but not true weak spots. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adds a full set of secondaries that look good but not great, and commands it well enough. That's your basic #5 starter package, so the key to sticking in the rotation will be staying on top of that command, while a bump to the bullpen could mean his stuff would play up in shorter stints. Either way, you'll see a lot of him in 2020.
- Alex Wells (2020 Age: 23): Wells has moved slowly through the Orioles' system since signing for $300,000 out of Australia in 2015, but he's also been effective every step of the way and posted a 2.95 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 105/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.1 innings at AA Bowie in 2019. He doesn't throw that hard, sitting in the upper 80's, and his soft curveball isn't much of a weapon either, though it does have nice downer movement. However, he gets his outs due to excellent command, and it also pays to have a very good, fading changeup to keep hitters off balance. His margin for error keeps getting smaller as he works his way up through the minors, but he just continues to get tighter and tighter with that command and he could end up a #4 or a #5 starter, though I'd still prefer some of the names ahead of him on this list.
- Bruce Zimmermann (2020 Age: 25): Zimmermann is a hometown guy, having graduated from Loyola Blakefield High School in Towson before attending Towson University for two years, though he then transferred to Mount Olive College in North Carolina. Acquired from the Braves in the Kevin Gausman deal, he posted a 3.21 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 innings at AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk in 2019, and now he's knocking on the door to the bigs. He's not too dissimilar to Wells, actually, sitting around 90 with his fastball and adding a decent slider and a changeup with good command. Wells is probably the slightly better prospect due to the tighter command, but Zimmermann does have #5 starter potential and he'll compete for a spot in 2020.
- DL Hall (2020 Age: 21): Hall was a first round pick out of a Georgia high school in 2017, and his stock remains about where it was when he was drafted. In 2019, he put up a 3.46 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 116/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings at High A Frederick, certainly impressive numbers for a 20 year old at that level. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great curveball that acts as his strikeout pitch, and he's come along nicely with a changeup that is an effective pitch in its own right. However, despite the success he's had so far in his minor league career, he still looks much more like a prospect than a big leaguer. His command remains spotty and in need of further refinement, and he has yet to throw 100 innings in a season, showing the need for improved durability. There building blocks are absolutely there for the 6'2" lefty, he just needs significant further refinement to put them together. The good news is that he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old and he could make those breakthroughs at any point.
- Grayson Rodriguez (2020 Age: 20): Rodriguez might be a level behind Hall, but he's probably the better prospect at this point and I wouldn't be surprised if he beat him to the majors. A first rounder out of an East Texas high school in 2018, Rodriguez posted a 2.68 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 129/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at Class A Delmarva in 2019. He's a big, 6'5" righty with a power low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of distinct, great breaking balls in a hard biting slider and a downer curveball, as well as a developing changeup. His arsenal, as well as his ability to command it decently, were enough to completely overwhelm Class A hitters. That command can be a bit inconsistent, but he also pitched all of 2019 at 19 years old, and I don't see it as much of an issue at this point. He does still have one other thing to work on, that being a deep arm plunge that might give more advanced hitters a good look at his pitches. The Orioles also held him on a short leash, giving him just 94 innings over 20 starts, so he'll have to prove his durability.
- Kyle Bradish (2020 Age: 23): Copied from the Angels' system report before he was shipped to Baltimore in the Dylan Bundy deal: A fourth round pick out of New Mexico State in 2018, Bradish didn't pitch professionally that year but skipped all the way to High A Inland Empire for his pro debut this year. The results weren't spectacular, but he still exceeded expectations with a 4.28 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 120/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 innings against advanced competition in a hitters' league. Originally projected as a reliever, he delayed that potential move with his performance this year and by doing a better job of maintaining low 90's heat late into his starts. While nothing he throws grades out as a plus, his tilt and go delivery makes everything play up as it's hard to time and see his pitches. His command was a bit better than expected in 2019, and while a move to the bullpen is still possible due to the effort in his delivery, he might just be able to throw enough strikes to stick as a potential #4 starter.
- Drew Rom (2020 Age: 20): Drew Rom was a fourth round pick out of a Cincinnati-area high school in 2018, then quietly put up a great season in 2019 with a 2.93 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 122/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings at Class A Delmarva. It's hard to say exactly what led to his success – the lefty sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent slider that flashes plus and a nice splitter, which he commands adequately, a truly average all-around game. Somehow, though, South Atlantic League hitters could not figure him out. I was considering writing up Brenan Hanifee or Blaine Knight in this spot, but both were inconsistent in High A this year, and Rom hasn't been hit hard yet so he gets the spot. At 6'2", he's projectable and could sit in the low 90's down the road, which combined with his slider, splitter, and hopefully gains in his command, could make him a sleeper to become a quality starting pitching option.
- Keep an eye on: Luis Ortiz, Tom Eshelman, Blaine Knight, Brenan Hanifee, Ofelky Peralta, Gray Fenter, Leonardo Rodriguez, Zach Peek
Relief Pitching
- Hunter Harvey (2020 Age: 25): Harvey was a first rounder out of a North Carolina high school in 2013, so he's been a prospect forever; that 2013 draft has already produced Kris Bryant, Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger, among others, so it's amazing that Harvey is still a prospect. Injury after injury has kept him from throwing even 90 innings in any single season, and from 2015-2017, he threw a total of just 31.1 in three years. In 2019, Harvey posted a 5.00 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and an 83/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings at AA Bowie and AAA Norfolk, and he finally reached the major leagues and posted a 1.42 ERA and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.1 innings in relief. Arm troubles aside, there's no question about the talent, as he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a really good curveball that gets a lot of swings and misses. With all the missed time to injuries, the rest of his game is still inconsistent, and at this point the fastball/curveball combination will play really well in the bullpen, especially with all the pitching prospects near the top.
- Cody Sedlock (2020 Age: 24-25): It's been a weird few years for Sedlock, who rode a breakout junior year at Illinois to a back-of-the-first-round selection in 2016, but struggled in both 2017 and 2018 and looked like a fringe-prospect. However, he bounced back in 2019, posting a 2.84 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 100/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings at High A Frederick and AA Bowie after having a 5.11 ERA in 2018 and a 5.90 ERA in 2017. He's never really regained the stuff he had that junior year in college, which now looks like more of a fluke than anything else, but he's learned to pitch with more average stuff and that drove his breakout. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondaries, with his slider and changeup in particular looking very effective when he can hit his spots with them. He still needs to tighten in his command a bit more, but I think he's low enough on the starting pitcher depth chart that he'll move to the bullpen anyways, where he might be able to combine re-improved stuff with his knew knowledge of pitching and become an effective long reliever.
- Kyle Brnovich (2020 Age: 22): The Angels drafted Brnovich in the eighth round out of Elon in 2019, but he didn't pitch afterwards and was shipped to Baltimore in the Dylan Bundy deal, so he never threw a pitch in their organization. He's a really interesting pitcher because he only sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, sometimes bumping the low 90's, but his bread and butter is a wicked slider that just dives towards the left handed batters box and just keeps on diving and diving. He can also get some nice fade on his changeup and his pitches can play up because of a little hop in his delivery that adds deception, but make no mistake about what makes Brnovich notable. The Orioles will try to develop him as a starter for now, but my guess is he ends up in the bullpen where he could just pitch off that slider and miss a ton of bats.
- Keep an eye on: Dillon Tate, Isaac Mattson, Zach Pop
Showing posts with label Ryan Mountcastle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Mountcastle. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 8, 2020
Wednesday, January 2, 2019
Reviewing the Baltimore Orioles Farm System
The Orioles' farm system has come a long, long way just in the past year. Very recently one of the emptiest farm systems in the game, Baltimore has added a ton of prospects via trades and, for the first time in a while, they seem to be successfully developing some pitchers with numerous pitching prospects having big years. It's still a pretty average system, but getting this system to average from mediocre so quickly has been a good accomplishment. With the major league team looking so terrible at this time, Orioles fans can at least look to the minor leagues with some hope.
Affiliates: AAA Norfolk Tides, AA Bowie Baysox, High A Frederick Keys, Class A Delmarva Shorebirds, Short Season Aberdeen IronBirds, complex level GCL and DSL Orioles
Upper Level Pitchers: RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Dillon Tate, RHP Hunter Harvey, LHP Keegan Akin, RHP Dean Kremer, and RHP Zach Pop
For the first time in a while, there are quite a few exciting arms at the top of the system here. None have huge ceilings, but many of them could be in the majors in 2019 in some capacity and a few could even make impacts. 23 year old Luis Ortiz came over from Milwaukee in the Jonathan Schoop trade, and he closed out a solid season by posting a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 86/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.2 innings at AA Biloxi (Brewers) and AAA Norfolk, pitching well in that stint in AAA. He's a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a great slider, also adding in a curveball and a changeup to make for a full, effective arsenal. With his pretty good command, he profiles well as a #3 or #4 starter as soon as 2019, and his fastball/slider combination could make him a very effective reliever if starting doesn't work out. Look to see Ortiz in the back of the Baltimore rotation in 2019. 24 year old Dillon Tate, originally a fourth overall pick to the Rangers out of UC Santa Barbara in 2015 who was traded to the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran deal, came over from New York in the Zach Britton trade in July. He has moved slowly for a college pitcher and doesn't look to have the same ceiling that the Rangers envisioned back when they drafted him three picks ahead of Arkansas's Andrew Benintendi, but he had a good year in AA this year by posting a 4.16 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 96/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings. He's a different pitcher than he was in 2015, still throwing in the mid 90's but seeing his once excellent slider flatten into more of an above average pitch. His changeup and command have taken steps forward, so now instead of being a high ceiling project with lots of work to do, he now looks like a potential back-end starter or high leverage reliever. Every year seems like "the year" that will determine Tate's future, so while 2019 looks like something of a make or break year for him, we never really know with Tate. 24 year old Hunter Harvey, a first round pick (22nd overall) out of high school in North Carolina in 2013, has struggled immensely with injuries but is so talented that he remains an intriguing prospect. He has never thrown more than 87.2 innings in a season with that career high coming way back in 2014, and he has thrown just 63.2 innings total in the four seasons since then. In 2018, he posted a 5.57 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 30/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.1 innings at AA Bowie, actually healthy at the start of the season but straining his shoulder when he caught his shirt sleeve on a railing in the dugout, getting a sore elbow when he tried to come back, and not throwing after June 1st. He's still a great pitcher who throws in the mid 90's, adds a great curveball and a good changeup, and can command everything well enough to be successful, but he simply cannot catch a break. If he can ever get healthy, he has #2 or #3 starter upside, but he has to get healthy at some point. A switch to the bullpen might save some strain on his arm. 23 year old Keegan Akin had a breakout year in 2018 by going 14-7 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 142/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at Bowie, using his natural feel for pitching to make his good-not-great stuff play up. The 6' lefty looks like a #4 or #5 starter at this point, but I wouldn't underestimate him and he has a chance to be better than expected. 22 year old Dean Kremer, who has a chance to be the first Israeli to play in the major leagues (he grew up in California's Central Valley but spent significant time in Israel and holds dual Israeli-American citizenship), came over from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade and had a big breakout season, going 10-5 with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 178/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.1 innings between High A and AA. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good array of secondary pitches, putting together a good combination of velocity and deception that helps him miss plenty of bats. He has good upside as a mid-rotation starter, though he does have some reliever risk if he doesn't develop further. If his breakout continues into 2019, then the Orioles have something special on hand, but a regression might mean the bullpen for Kremer. Lastly, 22 year old Zach Pop came over with Kremer in the Machado deal and is purely a relief prospect, having posted a 1.53 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 64/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings between Class A, High A, and AA. He throws in the mid 90's comfortably and adds a good slider, and he'll be in the bullpen mix for 2019 with set-up man upside. The Orioles also have have notable high minors bullpen prospects in Branden Kline, Cody Carroll, and Jay Flaa, but they're older and likely end up as middle relievers.
Lower Level Pitchers: LHP DL Hall, LHP Zac Lowther, RHP Michael Baumann, RHP Brenan Hanifee, LHP Cameron Bishop, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, and RHP Blaine Knight
While many of the best pitching prospects in the system are up near the top, they have plenty of big arms down near the bottom, including two with the highest ceilings. Many of these arms passed through Class A Delmarva this season, where I have attended tons of games in the past but where I unfortunately could not get to for any games this summer. 20 year old DL Hall might be the best prospect in the system, having been a first round pick (21st overall) out of high school in southern Georgia in 2017 before breaking out in 2018. This year, he posted a 2.10 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 100/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.1 innings at Class A Delmarva, going so with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball, one which helps him get plenty of strikeouts. The rest of his game is pretty raw, but the 6'2" lefty will play all of 2019 at age 20 having already mastered Class A, and if he stays healthy (major if considering the Orioles' history with Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey) and further develops his changeup, he has a shot to be a #2 starter. 22 year old Zac Lowther was a competitive balance pick (74th overall) in the same 2017 draft out of Xavier, and like fellow finesse lefty Keegan Akin, he has had immediate success in the minors. This year, he posted a 2.18 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 151/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings between Delmarva and High A Frederick, getting strikeouts at a great rate despite average stuff. Like Akin, he does well not because of his stuff or even because of great command, but because he knows how to pitch and uses what he has effectively. Like Akin, he looks like a #5 starter, but also like Akin, he should not be underestimated. 23 year old Michael Baumann is yet another product of that 2017 draft, having been taken in the third round (98th overall) out of Jacksonville University. Like Hall and Lowther, he's off to a fast start, having gone 13-5 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings between Delmarva and Frederick this season. He's a 6'4" righty that throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, but the big question is whether his other secondary pitches and command can come along. So far, he has succeeded against mid minors hitters, but his ability to make adjustments will determine whether he ends up a #3 or #4 starter or just a reliever. 20 year old Brenan Hanifee and 22 year old Cameron Bishop were teammates in the Delmarva rotation this year, both pitching very well over a full season. Hanifee posted a 2.86 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an 85/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings, while Bishop came out with a 2.94 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 99/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings. Both are tall (6'5" and 6'4", respectively) and get by more on throwing strikes than on pure stuff, sitting in the low 90's with marginal secondary stuff. Bishop throws slightly harder but Hanifee, despite being almost two years younger, has a better feel for hitting his spots while Bishop is generally good at just keeping it in the strike zone and avoiding walks. I'd consider Hanifee the better prospect, but they'll be interesting in their transitions to High A in 2019. 19 year old Grayson Rodriguez was the Orioles' first round pick (11th overall) in 2018 out of high school in east Texas, then posted a 1.40 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 20/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings in complex ball. He has plenty of arm strength and throws in the low to mid 90's together with a deep, effective arsenal. The big righty will need some mechanical changes and further refinement of his secondary pitches, with his hard biting slider being his best currently. There are a lot of different directions he could develop but currently, Rodriguez has a chance to be a #2 starter. Lastly, 22 year old Blaine Knight was a third round pick (87th overall) out of Arkansas in the same draft, posting a 2.61 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings at short season Aberdeen after a long College World Series run. Knight throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider, but instead of blowing his stuff by hitters he hits his spots and pitches smartly. He's very skinny and could have some reliever risk, but he's a tough competitor who will work hard to ensure he remains healthy and in the rotation. For now, he has #4 starter projection.
Outfielders: OF Yusniel Diaz, OF Austin Hays, OF D.J. Stewart, OF Ryan McKenna, and OF Cole Billingsley
The Orioles are less deep when it comes to hitters, though a couple of outfielders have a chance to be real difference makers in Baltimore. 22 year old Yusniel Diaz, the headlining return prospect in the Manny Machado trade, may be the best prospect in the system after slashing .285/.392/.449 with 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 67/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 games at AA. He's a very advanced hitter with some power, great plate discipline, and the ability to get the ball in play, meanwhile playing good outfield defense. He'll either end up as a decent center fielder or a good right fielder, but the bat will play in either position as a guy whose on-base percentages could push well over .350 in the majors. 23 year old Austin Hays burst onto the scene with a huge 2017 (32 HR, .329/.365/.593) and even cracked the majors for 20 games, but 2018 ended up being a step backwards. Ankle and shoulder injuries limited him to 75 games, where he slashed .235/.266/.410 with 12 home runs and a 66/14 strikeout to walk ratio between AA Bowie and rehab ball at short season Aberdeen. He has plenty of power and plays great defense in right field, but his aggressive approach limited him in 2018 and he'll have to tone it down to become more than just a fourth outfielder, which is entirely plausible and possibly even likely. 25 year old D.J. Stewart was a first round pick (25th overall) back in 2015 out of Florida State, but his tendency to swing and miss has kept him from getting to his power as much as hoped. This year, he slashed .235/.329/.387 with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 103/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at AAA Norfolk, then .250/.340/.550 with three home runs in 17 major league games. At 6' and 230 pounds, he's a stocky hitter who generates power from a big swing, but while he is good about drawing walks, he strikes out a lot and that has suppressed his production so far. He's kind of in a similar boat to Hays at this point offensively, though he draws more walks and Hays is almost two years younger. However, Hays is clearly the better defender as Stewart will end up a left fielder. 21 year old Ryan McKenna had a breakout year in 2018, slashing .315/.410/.457 with 11 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 101/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Frederick and Bowie. He began to cut his strikeout rate while raising his walk rate, and getting better pitches to hit meant he was driving the ball more this year. While he was much better at the lower level, Frederick (.377/.467/.556) than he was at Bowie (.239/.341/.338), he maintained a high walk rate after his promotion and his second shot at AA in 2019 will tell us if he is a potential future starter in Baltimore or just a fourth outfielder type. Lastly, 24 year old Cole Billingsley doesn't really have a chance to be anything more than a fifth outfielder, if that, but I really enjoyed watching him play at Class A Delmarva in 2017 (where he slashed .282/.349/.367) and want to give him a brief write up. He slashed .208/.297/.301 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 79/53 strikeout to walk ratio at High A Frederick this season, showing little potency with the bat but also showing good speed, defense, and plate discipline. Again, he's unlikely to make an impact in Baltimore, but he's fun to watch, plays hard, and hopefully gets a chance at Bowie in 2019.
Infielders: 3B Ryan Mountcastle, SS Richie Martin, SS Drew Jackson, 3B Rylan Bannon, 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion, SS Cadyn Grenier, and SS Adam Hall
There is a little more depth when it comes to infielders, with quite a few potential future starters and two Rule 5 picks. 21 year old Ryan Mountcastle has the best pure bat in the system behind Yusniel Diaz, coming off a big 2018 where he slashed .297/.341/.464 with 13 home runs and a 79/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Bowie. His aggressive approach has led evaluators to believe he would struggle at the upper levels without some adjustments, but he has managed to keep hitting and hitting as he has moved through the minors. Approach aside, he has good power and sprays line drives all over the field with his long arms, and if he continues to hit even with that approach he could be am impact bat in the Orioles' lineup. He has a decent glove at third base and may be able to stick there, but any defensive regression will lead to a move to either first base or left field. 24 year old Richie Martin was a Rule 5 pick from Oakland, meaning he'll have to spend all of 2019 in the majors to avoid being sent back to the A's. That shouldn't be a problem, as he slashed .300/.368/.439 with six home runs, 25 stolen bases, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA in 2018, showing a good feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, good speed, and great defense at shortstop. He'll never hit for much power, but if he maintains moderately high on-base percentages he could stick as a starter in Baltimore, and if the bat falters a little bit he'll still make a good utility infielder. 25 year old Drew Jackson was another Rule 5 pick who will be in the same boat as Martin, having slashed .251/.356/.447 with 15 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 93/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at AA for the Dodgers in 2018. He has a pretty average bat but is a great defender at shortstop, and as a completed product at 25 years old, he's a classic utility infielder. 22 year old Rylan Bannon came from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, and he's an interesting sleeper prospect who slashed .275/.389/.507 with 22 home runs and a 127/81 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games between High A and AA (much better .296/.402/.559 at High A than his .204/.344/.327 at AA). Much of his production came in the hitter-friendly California League before the trade, but he has a very refined approach and plays good defense around the infield. He looks like a utility infielder at first glance but if he can keep his strikeouts down in the upper minors while maintaining that power he showed in the Cal League, Bannon could surprise some people and start at second or third base down the road for the Orioles. 20 year old Jean Carlos Encarnacion came from Atlanta in the Kevin Gausman trade, slashing .273/.298/.439 with 12 home runs and a 134/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A. While Bannon is a patient hitter who can get to his power by waiting for his pitch and crushing it, Encarnacion is just the opposite in that he swings at everything and hopes for the best. So far, that has worked for him in the low minors but upper level pitching will tear that approach apart. The Orioles will have to calm him down at the plate in order to make him a useful hitter, after which he could fight with Bannon and Mountcastle for reps at third base. The talent is there; the refinement needs to come next. 22 year old Cadyn Grenier was a competitive balance pick (37th overall) out of Oregon State in 2018, following up a College World Series championship with a .216/.297/.333 slash line, one home run, and a 53/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at Class A Delmarva. While the bat seems light based on the numbers, it's not an easy jump from college ball straight to Class A, and it's not the bat that people are buzzing about either. While he's a competent hitter that can put the ball in play, he's a fantastic defender who will certainly stick at shortstop while playing good enough defense to take plenty of pressure off his bat. As long as he can keep his on-base percentages in the .310-.330 range, which he is capable of, he should be able to rise through the minors quickly as a slick fielding utility infielder. Lastly, 19 year old Adam Hall was a second round pick (60th overall) out of high school in Ontario in 2017, and he slashed .293/.368/.374 with one home run, 22 stolen bases, and a 58/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Aberdeen in 2018. He's a smaller kid who is very raw as a hitter, but he's a good defender at shortstop who can steal plenty of bases and he has the tools to get better. I'd consider him to be a raw version of Grenier, with a slightly higher ceiling as a hitter with some punch but a much lower floor because neither his glove nor his bat are as advanced.
Affiliates: AAA Norfolk Tides, AA Bowie Baysox, High A Frederick Keys, Class A Delmarva Shorebirds, Short Season Aberdeen IronBirds, complex level GCL and DSL Orioles
Upper Level Pitchers: RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Dillon Tate, RHP Hunter Harvey, LHP Keegan Akin, RHP Dean Kremer, and RHP Zach Pop
For the first time in a while, there are quite a few exciting arms at the top of the system here. None have huge ceilings, but many of them could be in the majors in 2019 in some capacity and a few could even make impacts. 23 year old Luis Ortiz came over from Milwaukee in the Jonathan Schoop trade, and he closed out a solid season by posting a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 86/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.2 innings at AA Biloxi (Brewers) and AAA Norfolk, pitching well in that stint in AAA. He's a 6'3" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a great slider, also adding in a curveball and a changeup to make for a full, effective arsenal. With his pretty good command, he profiles well as a #3 or #4 starter as soon as 2019, and his fastball/slider combination could make him a very effective reliever if starting doesn't work out. Look to see Ortiz in the back of the Baltimore rotation in 2019. 24 year old Dillon Tate, originally a fourth overall pick to the Rangers out of UC Santa Barbara in 2015 who was traded to the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran deal, came over from New York in the Zach Britton trade in July. He has moved slowly for a college pitcher and doesn't look to have the same ceiling that the Rangers envisioned back when they drafted him three picks ahead of Arkansas's Andrew Benintendi, but he had a good year in AA this year by posting a 4.16 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 96/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings. He's a different pitcher than he was in 2015, still throwing in the mid 90's but seeing his once excellent slider flatten into more of an above average pitch. His changeup and command have taken steps forward, so now instead of being a high ceiling project with lots of work to do, he now looks like a potential back-end starter or high leverage reliever. Every year seems like "the year" that will determine Tate's future, so while 2019 looks like something of a make or break year for him, we never really know with Tate. 24 year old Hunter Harvey, a first round pick (22nd overall) out of high school in North Carolina in 2013, has struggled immensely with injuries but is so talented that he remains an intriguing prospect. He has never thrown more than 87.2 innings in a season with that career high coming way back in 2014, and he has thrown just 63.2 innings total in the four seasons since then. In 2018, he posted a 5.57 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 30/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.1 innings at AA Bowie, actually healthy at the start of the season but straining his shoulder when he caught his shirt sleeve on a railing in the dugout, getting a sore elbow when he tried to come back, and not throwing after June 1st. He's still a great pitcher who throws in the mid 90's, adds a great curveball and a good changeup, and can command everything well enough to be successful, but he simply cannot catch a break. If he can ever get healthy, he has #2 or #3 starter upside, but he has to get healthy at some point. A switch to the bullpen might save some strain on his arm. 23 year old Keegan Akin had a breakout year in 2018 by going 14-7 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 142/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at Bowie, using his natural feel for pitching to make his good-not-great stuff play up. The 6' lefty looks like a #4 or #5 starter at this point, but I wouldn't underestimate him and he has a chance to be better than expected. 22 year old Dean Kremer, who has a chance to be the first Israeli to play in the major leagues (he grew up in California's Central Valley but spent significant time in Israel and holds dual Israeli-American citizenship), came over from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade and had a big breakout season, going 10-5 with a 2.88 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 178/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.1 innings between High A and AA. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good array of secondary pitches, putting together a good combination of velocity and deception that helps him miss plenty of bats. He has good upside as a mid-rotation starter, though he does have some reliever risk if he doesn't develop further. If his breakout continues into 2019, then the Orioles have something special on hand, but a regression might mean the bullpen for Kremer. Lastly, 22 year old Zach Pop came over with Kremer in the Machado deal and is purely a relief prospect, having posted a 1.53 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 64/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings between Class A, High A, and AA. He throws in the mid 90's comfortably and adds a good slider, and he'll be in the bullpen mix for 2019 with set-up man upside. The Orioles also have have notable high minors bullpen prospects in Branden Kline, Cody Carroll, and Jay Flaa, but they're older and likely end up as middle relievers.
Lower Level Pitchers: LHP DL Hall, LHP Zac Lowther, RHP Michael Baumann, RHP Brenan Hanifee, LHP Cameron Bishop, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, and RHP Blaine Knight
While many of the best pitching prospects in the system are up near the top, they have plenty of big arms down near the bottom, including two with the highest ceilings. Many of these arms passed through Class A Delmarva this season, where I have attended tons of games in the past but where I unfortunately could not get to for any games this summer. 20 year old DL Hall might be the best prospect in the system, having been a first round pick (21st overall) out of high school in southern Georgia in 2017 before breaking out in 2018. This year, he posted a 2.10 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 100/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.1 innings at Class A Delmarva, going so with a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curveball, one which helps him get plenty of strikeouts. The rest of his game is pretty raw, but the 6'2" lefty will play all of 2019 at age 20 having already mastered Class A, and if he stays healthy (major if considering the Orioles' history with Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey) and further develops his changeup, he has a shot to be a #2 starter. 22 year old Zac Lowther was a competitive balance pick (74th overall) in the same 2017 draft out of Xavier, and like fellow finesse lefty Keegan Akin, he has had immediate success in the minors. This year, he posted a 2.18 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 151/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings between Delmarva and High A Frederick, getting strikeouts at a great rate despite average stuff. Like Akin, he does well not because of his stuff or even because of great command, but because he knows how to pitch and uses what he has effectively. Like Akin, he looks like a #5 starter, but also like Akin, he should not be underestimated. 23 year old Michael Baumann is yet another product of that 2017 draft, having been taken in the third round (98th overall) out of Jacksonville University. Like Hall and Lowther, he's off to a fast start, having gone 13-5 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 106/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings between Delmarva and Frederick this season. He's a 6'4" righty that throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good curveball, but the big question is whether his other secondary pitches and command can come along. So far, he has succeeded against mid minors hitters, but his ability to make adjustments will determine whether he ends up a #3 or #4 starter or just a reliever. 20 year old Brenan Hanifee and 22 year old Cameron Bishop were teammates in the Delmarva rotation this year, both pitching very well over a full season. Hanifee posted a 2.86 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an 85/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings, while Bishop came out with a 2.94 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 99/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings. Both are tall (6'5" and 6'4", respectively) and get by more on throwing strikes than on pure stuff, sitting in the low 90's with marginal secondary stuff. Bishop throws slightly harder but Hanifee, despite being almost two years younger, has a better feel for hitting his spots while Bishop is generally good at just keeping it in the strike zone and avoiding walks. I'd consider Hanifee the better prospect, but they'll be interesting in their transitions to High A in 2019. 19 year old Grayson Rodriguez was the Orioles' first round pick (11th overall) in 2018 out of high school in east Texas, then posted a 1.40 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 20/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings in complex ball. He has plenty of arm strength and throws in the low to mid 90's together with a deep, effective arsenal. The big righty will need some mechanical changes and further refinement of his secondary pitches, with his hard biting slider being his best currently. There are a lot of different directions he could develop but currently, Rodriguez has a chance to be a #2 starter. Lastly, 22 year old Blaine Knight was a third round pick (87th overall) out of Arkansas in the same draft, posting a 2.61 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and an 8/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings at short season Aberdeen after a long College World Series run. Knight throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider, but instead of blowing his stuff by hitters he hits his spots and pitches smartly. He's very skinny and could have some reliever risk, but he's a tough competitor who will work hard to ensure he remains healthy and in the rotation. For now, he has #4 starter projection.
Outfielders: OF Yusniel Diaz, OF Austin Hays, OF D.J. Stewart, OF Ryan McKenna, and OF Cole Billingsley
The Orioles are less deep when it comes to hitters, though a couple of outfielders have a chance to be real difference makers in Baltimore. 22 year old Yusniel Diaz, the headlining return prospect in the Manny Machado trade, may be the best prospect in the system after slashing .285/.392/.449 with 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 67/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 97 games at AA. He's a very advanced hitter with some power, great plate discipline, and the ability to get the ball in play, meanwhile playing good outfield defense. He'll either end up as a decent center fielder or a good right fielder, but the bat will play in either position as a guy whose on-base percentages could push well over .350 in the majors. 23 year old Austin Hays burst onto the scene with a huge 2017 (32 HR, .329/.365/.593) and even cracked the majors for 20 games, but 2018 ended up being a step backwards. Ankle and shoulder injuries limited him to 75 games, where he slashed .235/.266/.410 with 12 home runs and a 66/14 strikeout to walk ratio between AA Bowie and rehab ball at short season Aberdeen. He has plenty of power and plays great defense in right field, but his aggressive approach limited him in 2018 and he'll have to tone it down to become more than just a fourth outfielder, which is entirely plausible and possibly even likely. 25 year old D.J. Stewart was a first round pick (25th overall) back in 2015 out of Florida State, but his tendency to swing and miss has kept him from getting to his power as much as hoped. This year, he slashed .235/.329/.387 with 12 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 103/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at AAA Norfolk, then .250/.340/.550 with three home runs in 17 major league games. At 6' and 230 pounds, he's a stocky hitter who generates power from a big swing, but while he is good about drawing walks, he strikes out a lot and that has suppressed his production so far. He's kind of in a similar boat to Hays at this point offensively, though he draws more walks and Hays is almost two years younger. However, Hays is clearly the better defender as Stewart will end up a left fielder. 21 year old Ryan McKenna had a breakout year in 2018, slashing .315/.410/.457 with 11 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 101/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A Frederick and Bowie. He began to cut his strikeout rate while raising his walk rate, and getting better pitches to hit meant he was driving the ball more this year. While he was much better at the lower level, Frederick (.377/.467/.556) than he was at Bowie (.239/.341/.338), he maintained a high walk rate after his promotion and his second shot at AA in 2019 will tell us if he is a potential future starter in Baltimore or just a fourth outfielder type. Lastly, 24 year old Cole Billingsley doesn't really have a chance to be anything more than a fifth outfielder, if that, but I really enjoyed watching him play at Class A Delmarva in 2017 (where he slashed .282/.349/.367) and want to give him a brief write up. He slashed .208/.297/.301 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 79/53 strikeout to walk ratio at High A Frederick this season, showing little potency with the bat but also showing good speed, defense, and plate discipline. Again, he's unlikely to make an impact in Baltimore, but he's fun to watch, plays hard, and hopefully gets a chance at Bowie in 2019.
Infielders: 3B Ryan Mountcastle, SS Richie Martin, SS Drew Jackson, 3B Rylan Bannon, 3B Jean Carlos Encarnacion, SS Cadyn Grenier, and SS Adam Hall
There is a little more depth when it comes to infielders, with quite a few potential future starters and two Rule 5 picks. 21 year old Ryan Mountcastle has the best pure bat in the system behind Yusniel Diaz, coming off a big 2018 where he slashed .297/.341/.464 with 13 home runs and a 79/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Bowie. His aggressive approach has led evaluators to believe he would struggle at the upper levels without some adjustments, but he has managed to keep hitting and hitting as he has moved through the minors. Approach aside, he has good power and sprays line drives all over the field with his long arms, and if he continues to hit even with that approach he could be am impact bat in the Orioles' lineup. He has a decent glove at third base and may be able to stick there, but any defensive regression will lead to a move to either first base or left field. 24 year old Richie Martin was a Rule 5 pick from Oakland, meaning he'll have to spend all of 2019 in the majors to avoid being sent back to the A's. That shouldn't be a problem, as he slashed .300/.368/.439 with six home runs, 25 stolen bases, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA in 2018, showing a good feel for the strike zone as well as the barrel, good speed, and great defense at shortstop. He'll never hit for much power, but if he maintains moderately high on-base percentages he could stick as a starter in Baltimore, and if the bat falters a little bit he'll still make a good utility infielder. 25 year old Drew Jackson was another Rule 5 pick who will be in the same boat as Martin, having slashed .251/.356/.447 with 15 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 93/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at AA for the Dodgers in 2018. He has a pretty average bat but is a great defender at shortstop, and as a completed product at 25 years old, he's a classic utility infielder. 22 year old Rylan Bannon came from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade, and he's an interesting sleeper prospect who slashed .275/.389/.507 with 22 home runs and a 127/81 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games between High A and AA (much better .296/.402/.559 at High A than his .204/.344/.327 at AA). Much of his production came in the hitter-friendly California League before the trade, but he has a very refined approach and plays good defense around the infield. He looks like a utility infielder at first glance but if he can keep his strikeouts down in the upper minors while maintaining that power he showed in the Cal League, Bannon could surprise some people and start at second or third base down the road for the Orioles. 20 year old Jean Carlos Encarnacion came from Atlanta in the Kevin Gausman trade, slashing .273/.298/.439 with 12 home runs and a 134/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A. While Bannon is a patient hitter who can get to his power by waiting for his pitch and crushing it, Encarnacion is just the opposite in that he swings at everything and hopes for the best. So far, that has worked for him in the low minors but upper level pitching will tear that approach apart. The Orioles will have to calm him down at the plate in order to make him a useful hitter, after which he could fight with Bannon and Mountcastle for reps at third base. The talent is there; the refinement needs to come next. 22 year old Cadyn Grenier was a competitive balance pick (37th overall) out of Oregon State in 2018, following up a College World Series championship with a .216/.297/.333 slash line, one home run, and a 53/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games at Class A Delmarva. While the bat seems light based on the numbers, it's not an easy jump from college ball straight to Class A, and it's not the bat that people are buzzing about either. While he's a competent hitter that can put the ball in play, he's a fantastic defender who will certainly stick at shortstop while playing good enough defense to take plenty of pressure off his bat. As long as he can keep his on-base percentages in the .310-.330 range, which he is capable of, he should be able to rise through the minors quickly as a slick fielding utility infielder. Lastly, 19 year old Adam Hall was a second round pick (60th overall) out of high school in Ontario in 2017, and he slashed .293/.368/.374 with one home run, 22 stolen bases, and a 58/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Aberdeen in 2018. He's a smaller kid who is very raw as a hitter, but he's a good defender at shortstop who can steal plenty of bases and he has the tools to get better. I'd consider him to be a raw version of Grenier, with a slightly higher ceiling as a hitter with some punch but a much lower floor because neither his glove nor his bat are as advanced.
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