Teams love advanced college pitchers and are quick to take them early, yet this group of right handers is thin at the top and none are threatening to go in the top five picks, with only three looking like locks for the first round. However, once you get past the thin first tier, there are quite a few names to choose from, and they come in about as many shapes and sizes as you could hope for.
Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.
Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.
Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.
Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown
*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.
Friday, May 31, 2019
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: High School RHP's
Every year, there is typically some high school right hander who separates himself from the pack and creates buzz as to whether he can be the first high school right hander ever taken first overall. In 2018, it was Carter Stewart, before that it was Hunter Greene, and before that it was Riley Pint. Stewart is headed to Japan, Greene is out with Tommy John surgery, and Pint has been largely ineffective, and this year, there isn't anyone threatening to even land in the top five to ten picks. In fact, Matthew Allan is the only one with a good chance of landing in the top half of the first round at all, but once you get into the back part of the first round, names start popping up and there are plenty of kids with interesting upside. It's harder to separate players into tiers when there are so many, but here is my best shot at it.
Tier I: Matthew Allan, Brennan Malone, Quinn Priester
There were three in the top tier at the start of the spring, and there are three now, though Quinn Priester was swapped in for Daniel Espino. Matthew Allan, a high schooler in Orlando, is likely the best arm in this group, though he still isn't a premium prospect. Allan is a 6'3" right hander with three great pitches, tossing his fastball in the mid 90's, adding one of the better curveballs in the class, and wrapping it up with an advanced changeup for a high school pitcher. His command has also taken a step forward this spring, making him extremely well rounded for a high schooler, and he should be signable away from a commitment to Florida. Allan looks like a future #2 starter at best but more likely settles in as a mid-rotation guy, and he looks to go somewhere near the middle of the first round, likely earlier rather than later. Brennan Malone, a Charlotte native attending the IMG Academy in Florida, also took a step forward as a senior and got much more consistent with his stuff, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a solid slider, a curve that flashes plus, and a usable changeup. He's athletic and stands 6'3", and while he still has to get more consistent with some of his secondary stuff and his command, he's trending in the right direction and features arguably more upside than Allan. He'll go in the back half of the first round. Quinn Priester, like Allan and Malone, took a step forward this spring, though he has improved his draft stock the most out of the three. The 6'3" righty out of the Chicago area added velocity to his fastball and now sits in the low to mid 90's, also improving his curveball to the point where it now looks like a plus pitch and showcasing great feel for pitching, especially for a cold-weather arm. He apparently has not used a pitching coach and instead taught himself to pitch by watching Major League pitchers on YouTube, casting further light on his makeup and feel for pitching. He has solid command but needs to add a changeup, something which should be no issue, and his slow delivery features some jerk but is overall effective. He looks to be drafted in the same range as Malone.
Tier II: Daniel Espino, J.J. Goss, Jack Leiter, Josh Wolf
These four make up the kids who are likely to go towards the end of the first round/in the comp rounds, and like the guys in the first tier, all have had great springs. Daniel Espino is perhaps the most interesting high school arm in this part of the draft, as he started the spring locked in a dead-heat with Allan and Malone in competition for the best arm in the class. He hasn't really done anything to damper his own stock, but he has fallen because – wait for it – he throws too hard. Espino, a Panama native pitching at the Georgia Premier Academy in Statesboro, is a stocky 6'1" but throws consistently in the upper 90's, adding a wipeout slider and a good curveball to give himself easily the best stuff in the class – high school or college. Not only does his fastball reach 99 with consistency, it has wicked movement that makes it nearly impossible to square up. However, scouts are a little bit skeptical of Espino because of the velocity itself, as recent flamethrowing high schoolers like Riley Pint, Tyler Kolek, Hunter Greene, and Michael Kopech have gone on to struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness in pro ball. Espino himself has long arm action, but he is very athletic and alleviates much of the pressure on his arm due for that reason. If he stays healthy, he has true ace upside, and could even win some Cy Young Awards. However, that health piece is a huge "if" and he could realistically run into any range of outcomes, so he fits tentatively into the back half of the first round. Moving on, Houston-area native J.J. Goss has used a strong spring to push himself into first round consideration, showing a low 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a good changeup from a fluid delivery and loose, whippy arm action that bodes well for future projection. He commands everything decently well, though his lack of premium velocity pushes him into the back of the first round, where he looks to develop as a mid-rotation starter. Jack Leiter, son of former MLB pitcher Al Leiter, pitches in New Jersey and has ridden some of the best command in the high school class to where he is today. He's just 6'1" and throws in the low 90's, but he has a full array of secondary pitches headlined by a very good curveball, and his feel for pitching makes everything play up. That said, he's already 19, making him very old for a high school pitcher. Leiter has limited upside but looks like a safer bet than most high school pitchers to end up a major league starter, probably a #4, so he should go towards the back of the first round or in the comp rounds. Josh Wolf, like Goss, is a Houston high school pitcher, and he has elevated his status more than Espino, Goss, or Leiter this spring. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a very good curveball, and at a skinny 6'2", he comes with some projection. However, he's skinny enough that some scouts are worried about his ability to hold up under a professional workload, and he can lose his arm slot from time to time, affecting his command. He has strong makeup and should make the most out of his ability, looking like a comp round pick.
Tier III: Kendall Williams, Matthew Thompson, Bryce Osmond, Andrew Dalquist, Jimmy Lewis, Jack Kochanowicz
This is the second round group, at least based on talent and with signability aside. Kendall Williams, originally from the Memphis area, is teammates with Malone at the IMG Academy and comes in at an imposing, projectable 6'6". He currently throws in the low 90's but uses his height to his advantage, getting good downhill plane on the ball that makes it tough to elevate. Behind the fastball, he has a curve, slider, and changeup, all of which are fully usable, with the curveball being his out pitch. He still has work to do but with his projectable frame, he has a high ceiling as a starting pitcher. Meanwhile, Matthew Thompson is teammates with Goss at Cypress Ranch High School near Houston, though he hasn't had as great of a spring as his rotation mate. Thompson was viewed as a potential first rounder after a strong summer where he was into the mid 90's and flashed a strong curveball but his stuff and mechanics have been inconsistent this spring and he's fallen more into second round territory if he's signable away from Texas A&M. Thompson's 6'2" frame and whippy arm action give him plenty of projection, but he'll need more work than anticipated to reach his high ceiling. Bryce Osmond, a high schooler near Tulsa, also needs a lot of work, currently showing a low 90's fastball at his best but often fading during his starts. He also has a good slider and plenty of projection from his 6'3" frame, but he'll need to add strength to keep himself out of the bullpen. Andrew Dalquist, from Southern California, is a personal favorite of mine, already showing a full arsenal headlined by a low 90's fastball with good running action that will help him miss bats. His curveball has good shape and should become a plus pitch in time, his slider is already average, and his changeup shows fade. With a projectable 6'2" frame, he should add more velocity, and he has intriguing upside as well as a good chance to get there. Jimmy Lewis is teammates with star hitting prospect Brett Baty at Lake Travis High School in Austin, currently showing a low 90's fastball from a 6'6" frame. His curveball flashes plus and his changeup is fairly advanced for his age, and with an easy delivery, he should add velocity while maintaining decent to good command. Sometimes the pitchers in this part of the draft can get a bit redundant, and he hasn't done much in particular to separate himself, but he does have the ingredients to be a successful major league starter. Lastly, Jack Kochanowicz comes from the Philadelphia area, also standing 6'6" and tossing a low 90's fastball with a good curveball, though his delivery isn't quite as smooth as Lewis's and will require some refinement. That makes Lewis the better bet to maintain good command/add velocity/stay healthy down the road, but if Kochanowicz takes well to mechanical changes, he has the same upside.
Others: Evan Fitterer, Brett Thomas, Trey Faltine, Riley Cornelio, Will Rigney, Michael Limoncelli
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: College Outfielders
There are two clear headliners in this year's college outfield class, though aside from Kameron Misner, there probably won't be any others picked until the middle of the second round or later. Aside from the lack of a middle tier of late first round/comp round/early second round guys, there is a lot to like here, and once you get towards the end of day one/start of day two, there are quite a few guys who could make a difference in a variety of ways.
Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.
Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.
Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.
Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer
Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.
Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.
Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.
Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer
Monday, May 20, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: High School Outfielders
This isn't a particularly deep class of high school outfielders, with the Atlanta area usually sending us a boatload but remaining quiet this year, but once you get past the top two rounds or so, more names do start to appear. Most of the better bats in this high school draft class will be found on the infield (see Bobby Witt, Brett Baty, Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan), but it's not empty and there certainly are some headliners.
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
Tier I: Riley Greene, Corbin Carroll
The two headliners in this year's high school outfield class live three thousand miles apart on perfectly opposite corners of the country, and their skill sets might be just as far apart as well. Riley Greene, playing ball in Orlando and committed to Florida, is the best pure bat in the high school class save for Witt. Greene is imposing at the plate at 6'1" and gets to his plus raw power very consistently, making him as safe a bet as any high schooler to hit in pro ball. He has a big swing, but his very good approach at the plate and hand-eye coordination help him keep his swing and miss rate low, and those two traits combined should help him grow into 25-30 home run pop in the majors. Combine that with his projected high on-base percentages, and Greene should be a solid middle of the order hitter down the road. He's just so-so in the outfield, likely ending up in left field, but he won't be a liability and the added pressure on his bat won't be an issue. He'll definitely go in the top ten picks, more than likely in the top six. Seattle native Corbin Carroll is safely behind Greene on most draft boards, but he provides a very different vision of a player. At a listed 5'11" and 160 pounds, he doesn't look like an impact hitter, but he has one of the best hit tools in the country among high schoolers with an exceptional feel for both the barrel and zone that help him get on base consistently even against high-level competition. Carroll does a good job of using his load to gain ground on the ball, allowing him to drive through the ball and giving evaluators hope that he can add power down the road as he fills out. He's a good defender in center field who should be able to stick there, with his plus speed helping him track down balls in the gaps. He looks to go somewhere in the top half of the first round, though closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Sammy Siani, Maurice Hampton, Jerrion Ealy, Trejyn Fletcher
If Greene and Carroll were about as different as it gets, then the four players in this tier (save for Siani) are actually pretty similar. Sammy Siani, younger brother of Reds 2018 fourth rounder Mike Siani, plays ball in Philadelphia and offers an interesting tool set. He's just 5'11" but he has a smooth, uppercut swing that could produce close to average power down the road. Despite his power-oriented swing, he actually does a very good job of getting the bat on the ball consistently and catching up to good pitching, so with less of a need to worry about his strikeout rates climbing to high, he can continue focusing on trying to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences. He's pretty good defensively so that's a slight boost, and he has a fairly wide range of outcomes due to his potential power upside. He looks like a second round pick at the moment. Over in Memphis, Maurice Hampton offers some really interesting upside with his intense athleticism (he's committed to LSU to play both baseball and football) and present tools. Hampton has a quick swing and above average raw power, though like most two-sport athletes, he needs to refine his hit tool and learn to translate his batting practice power into game power. He also needs to get a little more patient at the plate, as increasing his walk rate could help him employ that SEC cornerback speed on the bases. Defensively, that speed makes him a solid center fielder, though he's raw there as well. With an August birthday, Hampton is one of the younger players in the class. which will give him some extra time to refine his game if he chooses to give up football. He looks like he could go in the comp round, but signability will make that uncertain. Interestingly, Hampton isn't the only two-way SEC recruit this year, as Jackson, Mississippi's Jerrion Ealy is committed to Ole Miss as a running back. At 5'10" and 190 pounds, he's built like a running back, too, and that athleticism makes him a really interesting baseball prospect. Ealy hits the ball hard and showed impressive feel for the barrel over the summer, but it's been a rough spring as he has shown that he has a long way to go offensively. His mechanics need to be ironed out so that he can smooth out his swing and add loft, and given his mediocre performance this spring, he comes with a lot of risk. He's better defensively than Hampton at this point, showing a better chance to stick in center field, though he's also a full year older with an August birthday. When Hampton turns 18, he'll turn 19 less than three weeks later, and he looks more like a second or third round pick, also clouded by signability concerns. Trejyn Fletcher isn't committed to an SEC school to play football, but it's a good thing we're talking about baseball because Vanderbilt has a spot waiting for him in its dugout for next season. Despite the lack of gridiron skills, Fletcher is just as interesting as Hampton and Ealy because he reclassified from a junior to a senior this year (which would be age-appropriate for him anyways), and oh yeah, he might be the best high school baseball prospect in Maine history. The Portland native is just as raw as you would expect for a kid from what I as a Virginian consider the Arctic, showing a very choppy, short swing that won't work in pro ball. That said, he's extremely athletic and has been rising on draft boards recently, shooting up potentially into the second round, and his solid glove and strong arm will buy the bat some time to develop. He has high upside and a lot of risk, but it looks like he might get drafted early enough for a team to keep him from following the path that infielder Ryan Flaherty paved from Portland to Vanderbilt.
Tier III: Chris Newell, Trey Faltine, Glenallen Hill Jr., Joshua Mears
These four don't offer quite the upside of the previous four, or if they do, they have a bit less of a chance to get there. Chris Newell, like Siani, lives in the Philadelphia area, and he actually has a fairly similar left handed swing to him. However, while Siani is currently hit over power due to his feel for the barrel, Newell is more power over hit and is already driving the ball with more authority than Siani, at least when he gets to it. There is more swing and miss in his game, giving the uppercut less of a chance to work in pro ball, and he has a fairly similar defensive profile to his crosstown Trey Faltine has one of the more interesting profiles among the guys who aren't SEC football players, as he's probably the most versatile player in the entire class. Faltine, from the Houston area, can play any position but catcher and he's also a legitimate pitching prospect, which I'll leave for a later writeup while I throw him in the outfield group for this one. Offensively, he has a great feel for the barrel with a swing that is more geared for contact than for power, and at 6'3", he could add some power down the road. He's not exceptionally fast but he can play any position, using his instincts to perform well anywhere from shortstop to center field. Despite his feel for the game, he overall lacks the current in-game impact of some of the players ahead of him, but once he decides what position he wants to play and gives up pitching (if he ends up as a position player at all), he should be able to channel his focus into becoming a top of the order hitter with high on-base percentages, some power, and average to slightly above average speed. He looks like a third or fourth rounder at first glance but could sneak into the second round. Glenallen Hill Jr. is the son of former big leaguer Glenallen Hill, and the Santa Cruz native has used his big, powerful swing to put himself on the map as a potential power hitter despite standing just 5'9". He's not too much unlike the Rangers' Willie Calhoun in that regard, though he's faster, can switch hit, and is limited to the outfield defensively. Hill's swing is a thing of beauty, but he has struggled with contact at times and because of his size, the power plays closer to average. Those two issues combined make him more of a third or fourth round prospect, though he has some real upside if he can find a way to get to his power consistently and use his speed to play good defense in the outfield. Lastly, Seattle area-native Joshua Mears doesn't quite match his cross-town opponent Corbin Carroll, but he's got some pop coming from a 6'3", 235 pound frame. Combine that with a good swing that generates plenty of whip and loft, and that will get scouts' attention. He has some swing and miss in his game and he's mediocre defensively, but the upside at the plate if he can gain a better approach at the plate will make him a solid pick in the third or fourth rounds.
Others: Hylan Hall, Dasan Brown, James Beard, Hudson Head
Sunday, May 19, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Catchers
Drafting catchers is extremely risky, because catching is both the most demanding and the most difficult job on the diamond. Most catchers are either considered bat-first or glove-first, and many struggle to develop the secondary trait because the rigors of catching are either a) too difficult to learn or b) holding back their bat. High school catchers are especially risky, but even college catchers flop with regularity, as we have recently seen with guys like Max Pentecost (2014 Kennesaw State -> Blue Jays), Austin Rei (2015 Washington -> Red Sox), Chris Okey (2016 Clemson -> Reds), and Logan Ice (2016 Oregon State -> Indians).
Tier I: Adley Rutschman, Shea Langeliers
While catchers tend to be risky, there are two excellent options right at the top, by themselves making this a banner year for college catching. Adley Rutschman is the best catching prospect in recent memory, topping even Joey Bart (2018 Georgia Tech -> Giants), Mike Zunino (2012 Florida -> Mariners), and Matt Wieters (2007 Georgia Tech -> Orioles). He is exceptional in every facet of the game, absolutely crushing Pac-12 pitching with 16 home runs, a .424/.575/.771 slash line, and a 36/66 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games, showing power, contact, and plate discipline. Rutschman is as safe a bet as any player in this class to hit well in pro ball, and he could produce 30 or more home runs annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he produces plenty of positive value, showing great glove work and a strong arm behind the plate. On top of that, he is considered a strong leader and a hard worker, and in all likelihood the Orioles will pick him first overall. Meanwhile, in most other draft classes, Baylor's Shea Langeliers would be the top catching prospect available. Langeliers is a glove-first catcher with a cannon arm and very good glove work, likely better defensively than even Rutschman. His bat, however, is an interesting story. He was just decent at the plate in 2018 (11 HR, .252/.351/.496, 45/35 K/BB), and a hand injury at the beginning of the season looked to slow him down even further. However, he has been very good since returning, slashing .311/.376/.484 with six home runs and a 24/15 strikeout to walk ratio, and he figures to be an average hitter in the majors. While that's not the most exciting profile, Yadier Molina is still a potential Hall of Famer, though Langeliers figures to hit for a little more power with a little bit lower of an on-base percentage. He looks to be drafted somewhere in the top half of the first round, likely closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Ethan Hearn, Jonathan French
The top two high school catchers are pretty close to each other with their stock, though high school catchers in general come with a ton of risk and I'd be weary of picking either of these players on day one. I see Mobile product Ethan Hearn as the slightly better prospect, as he has shown plenty of power and loft at the plate, though he does have some swing and miss in his game. He's solid defensively with his strong arm but needs to clean up the rest of his game behind the plate. Overall, he has the tools to be a successful, productive catcher on both sides of the ball, but tweaking both sides of a catcher's game simultaneously is difficult and Hearn has plenty of risk. He looks to go in the second or third round. Over in the Atlanta area, Jonathan French has a fairly similar profile to Hearn. He shows power from a clean swing, though he also has swing and miss issues and I'm slightly more confident in Hearn's power than his. Defensively, he also has a strong arm and is ahead of Hearn with his overall glove work, but he still has work to do and also comes with plenty of risk. He's also a second or third rounder, but he more likely fits in the third.
Tier III: Kyle McCann, Carter Bins, Thomas Dillard
On the college side, these three come with work to do, just like Hearn and French, but they're also three years older. Kyle McCann plays for Georgia Tech and has absolutely mashed this year, slashing .296/.462/.699 with 22 home runs and a 63/54 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games, showing no doubt about his pure power but raising questions about his hit tool. Sure, McCann can take just about any ACC pitcher deep, but he has also struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances and slashed just .219/.309/.344 in the Cape Cod League last summer. His high walk rate might make teams feel a bit better about the swing and miss, but he's definitely not a lock to get to his power consistently at the next level. Defensively, he's just so-so, and there is a real chance he is forced to move to first base. In the best case scenario, McCann sticks behind the plate and goes on to mash 30 home runs per season in the majors, but in the worst case scenario he flairs out as a minor league first baseman who strikes out too much to be an impact offensively. He looks like a third or fourth rounder. Meanwhile, Fresno State's Carter Bins is McCann's polar opposite. He's a glove-first catcher who will stick behind the plate (though not to Langeliers' caliber), but his bat has been disappointing this year and he's far from a lock to produce in pro ball. He was pretty good as a sophomore (7 HR, .301/.372/.526, 41/17 K/BB), but he has regressed as a junior (5 HR, .263/.370/.389, 42/28 K/BB), showing improved plate discipline and that's about it. He has some loft and whip in his swing that could help him produce some power with wood bats, but the bat speed is closer to average and he might never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season. Combine that with some moderate swing and miss, and Bins looks more like a back-up catcher than a starter, though he has the tools to improve. Lastly, Thomas Dillard is more of a first base prospect, but he has caught some at Ole Miss and a team could choose to run him out there as a catcher and just see what happens. He is having a strong season with the bat for the Rebels, slashing .298/.440/.505 with ten home runs and a 39/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 56 games. He has plenty of pop in his right handed stroke, using his stocky frame and the whip and loft in his swing to drive balls out of the park. Additionally, his strong plate discipline helps cut down the swing and miss in his game to reasonable levels despite the power-oriented swing, and I see him as a better bet to hit in pro ball than both McCann and Bins. However, he is also the most likely of the three to end up at first base, which would put more pressure on his bat to perform. He projects as a 20-25 home run hitter with solid if unspectacular on-base percentages and figures to go in the third or fourth round.
Others: Cooper Johnson, Nick Kahle, Hayden Dunhurst
Tier I: Adley Rutschman, Shea Langeliers
While catchers tend to be risky, there are two excellent options right at the top, by themselves making this a banner year for college catching. Adley Rutschman is the best catching prospect in recent memory, topping even Joey Bart (2018 Georgia Tech -> Giants), Mike Zunino (2012 Florida -> Mariners), and Matt Wieters (2007 Georgia Tech -> Orioles). He is exceptional in every facet of the game, absolutely crushing Pac-12 pitching with 16 home runs, a .424/.575/.771 slash line, and a 36/66 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games, showing power, contact, and plate discipline. Rutschman is as safe a bet as any player in this class to hit well in pro ball, and he could produce 30 or more home runs annually with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he produces plenty of positive value, showing great glove work and a strong arm behind the plate. On top of that, he is considered a strong leader and a hard worker, and in all likelihood the Orioles will pick him first overall. Meanwhile, in most other draft classes, Baylor's Shea Langeliers would be the top catching prospect available. Langeliers is a glove-first catcher with a cannon arm and very good glove work, likely better defensively than even Rutschman. His bat, however, is an interesting story. He was just decent at the plate in 2018 (11 HR, .252/.351/.496, 45/35 K/BB), and a hand injury at the beginning of the season looked to slow him down even further. However, he has been very good since returning, slashing .311/.376/.484 with six home runs and a 24/15 strikeout to walk ratio, and he figures to be an average hitter in the majors. While that's not the most exciting profile, Yadier Molina is still a potential Hall of Famer, though Langeliers figures to hit for a little more power with a little bit lower of an on-base percentage. He looks to be drafted somewhere in the top half of the first round, likely closer to the middle than the front.
Tier II: Ethan Hearn, Jonathan French
The top two high school catchers are pretty close to each other with their stock, though high school catchers in general come with a ton of risk and I'd be weary of picking either of these players on day one. I see Mobile product Ethan Hearn as the slightly better prospect, as he has shown plenty of power and loft at the plate, though he does have some swing and miss in his game. He's solid defensively with his strong arm but needs to clean up the rest of his game behind the plate. Overall, he has the tools to be a successful, productive catcher on both sides of the ball, but tweaking both sides of a catcher's game simultaneously is difficult and Hearn has plenty of risk. He looks to go in the second or third round. Over in the Atlanta area, Jonathan French has a fairly similar profile to Hearn. He shows power from a clean swing, though he also has swing and miss issues and I'm slightly more confident in Hearn's power than his. Defensively, he also has a strong arm and is ahead of Hearn with his overall glove work, but he still has work to do and also comes with plenty of risk. He's also a second or third rounder, but he more likely fits in the third.
Tier III: Kyle McCann, Carter Bins, Thomas Dillard
On the college side, these three come with work to do, just like Hearn and French, but they're also three years older. Kyle McCann plays for Georgia Tech and has absolutely mashed this year, slashing .296/.462/.699 with 22 home runs and a 63/54 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games, showing no doubt about his pure power but raising questions about his hit tool. Sure, McCann can take just about any ACC pitcher deep, but he has also struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances and slashed just .219/.309/.344 in the Cape Cod League last summer. His high walk rate might make teams feel a bit better about the swing and miss, but he's definitely not a lock to get to his power consistently at the next level. Defensively, he's just so-so, and there is a real chance he is forced to move to first base. In the best case scenario, McCann sticks behind the plate and goes on to mash 30 home runs per season in the majors, but in the worst case scenario he flairs out as a minor league first baseman who strikes out too much to be an impact offensively. He looks like a third or fourth rounder. Meanwhile, Fresno State's Carter Bins is McCann's polar opposite. He's a glove-first catcher who will stick behind the plate (though not to Langeliers' caliber), but his bat has been disappointing this year and he's far from a lock to produce in pro ball. He was pretty good as a sophomore (7 HR, .301/.372/.526, 41/17 K/BB), but he has regressed as a junior (5 HR, .263/.370/.389, 42/28 K/BB), showing improved plate discipline and that's about it. He has some loft and whip in his swing that could help him produce some power with wood bats, but the bat speed is closer to average and he might never hit more than 10-15 home runs per season. Combine that with some moderate swing and miss, and Bins looks more like a back-up catcher than a starter, though he has the tools to improve. Lastly, Thomas Dillard is more of a first base prospect, but he has caught some at Ole Miss and a team could choose to run him out there as a catcher and just see what happens. He is having a strong season with the bat for the Rebels, slashing .298/.440/.505 with ten home runs and a 39/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 56 games. He has plenty of pop in his right handed stroke, using his stocky frame and the whip and loft in his swing to drive balls out of the park. Additionally, his strong plate discipline helps cut down the swing and miss in his game to reasonable levels despite the power-oriented swing, and I see him as a better bet to hit in pro ball than both McCann and Bins. However, he is also the most likely of the three to end up at first base, which would put more pressure on his bat to perform. He projects as a 20-25 home run hitter with solid if unspectacular on-base percentages and figures to go in the third or fourth round.
Others: Cooper Johnson, Nick Kahle, Hayden Dunhurst
Saturday, May 18, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Third Basemen
There aren't any top-flight third basemen available, but once you dip into the middle/back of the first round and into the second and third, lots of options begin to emerge, especially on the college side. Some of these guys might need to move to first base long term (plus Tyler Callihan, who was included in the first base section), where pressure would rise on their bats, but all have at least a solid shot at sticking there. Most of these guys are power over hit, though Josh Jung and some of the third tier guys are notable exceptions to that.
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
Friday, May 17, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Shortstops
Shortstop is always one of the deepest positions at first glance, but many of these guys end up pushed off the position over to second or third base, and I tried to include those guys over with those positions. Still, the ability to play and stay at shortstop is a huge boon to a player's draft stock, as shortstops who can hit are hard to come by and when they are found, they become stars (see Francisco Lindor, Troy Tulowitzki, Derek Jeter). This year's crop is especially deep, especially at the college level (I pushed college shortstops Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake, and Brady McConnell to the second base list), though some high school bats are showing some real helium as of late.
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
Tier I: Bobby Witt Jr., CJ Abrams
These two are the top two shortstops – and top two high school players – in the class. The consensus is that Bobby Witt Jr. is the top high school player in the country on his own, as he looked like a very strong four tool player over the summer and has come out this spring looking closer to a five tool guy. The son of former MLB pitcher Bobby Witt, Junior is a power hitter with a lanky frame at six feet tall, using his large swing to generate power that should produce 20-30 home runs per season. That big swing led to some swing and miss on the showcase circuit, but he has reportedly hit for better contact against local Dallas-area high school competition in the spring and scouts are not worried about it failing to play up. Defensively, he is a lock to stay at shortstop, making him a potential impact player on both offense and defense. He is a lock to go in the first five picks, most likely to the Royals at second overall. Meanwhile, over in Atlanta, CJ Abrams has rode a great summer and spring to a likely top five draft selection. He isn't quite on the same level as Witt, but Abrams is one of the best athletes in the class with top of the scale speed, great feel for the barrel, and a strong arm. He lacks the current bulk to impact the ball and project for high home run totals, but he has long levers and because he can find the barrel so consistently, scouts think he can end up with double-digit home runs and plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, he uses his athleticism well, but scouts are not sold that he can stay at shortstop. If he can, his value is maximized, but a move to second base or center field is possible, the latter of which would enable him to use his exceptional speed to track down baseballs. It would be hard to see him falling past the Padres at pick number six, and he has a chance to go as high as third to the White Sox.
Tier II: Bryson Stott, Logan Davidson, Gunnar Henderson
While the second tier of shortstops aren't the low risk, high reward caliber of the first tier, they still have strong impact potential if things break right. Bryson Stott is this year's top college shortstop, putting up a huge breakout season for UNLV by slashing .361/.490/.624 with ten home runs and a 38/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Stott's breakout comes on the heels of criticism that his approach was too contact-oriented, but he's added power this year and while his strikeout rate has more than doubled, it was so low to begin with that that isn't a big deal. As it stands now, he is a high on-base hitter who has added power without sacrificing too much contact ability (his batting average only dropped from .365 to .361), one who should be a safe bet to hit at the next level. He's not as safe of a bet to stick at shortstop, with the chance of having to move to third base, but his bat profiles well at the hot corner and he still has a good shot at remaining at shortstop. He should go in the top half of the first round. Over at Clemson, Logan Davidson is a different player than his former teammate, 2018 Astros first round pick Seth Beer, but scouts face a similar conundrum with him. He has put up very strong numbers in the ACC, this year slashing .297/.415/.593 with 14 home runs and a 50/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games against strong competition, but he has struggled with wood bats, slashing .202/.304/.266 with three home runs and an 80/35 strikeout to walk ratio over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Beer struggled on the Cape and mashed with Clemson, and now he's hitting well in the minors, but Davidson's statistical discrepancies still give some scouts pause. He has power and gets on base but he strikes out a lot, giving him high upside at the plate but also more risk than you're typical first round college bat. Defensively, he'll stick at shortstop with his strong defense, which will buy his bat time, and he figures to go in the back half of the first round. On the high school side, Gunnar Henderson has hit his way from the second round up into the first round, showing an improving all-around game all spring long. The Alabama native is a strong all-around hitter who makes plenty of contact and has shown improved power this season, which combined with his improving defense at shortstop, gives him the chance to be an all-around contributor like Corey Seager. With a June birthday, he's also fairly young as far as high schoolers go, and by playing out in Selma, Alabama, he likely hasn't gotten the top of the line instruction that some kids in places like Atlanta, South Florida, or Los Angeles are getting. He looks to go in the back half of the first round but there are rumors that he could sneak into the middle.
Tier III: Will Holland, Greg Jones, Kyren Paris, Anthony Volpe, Nasim Nunez, Yordys Valdes
Once you get past the top five in this class (at least as I have defined the shortstops), there is a large set of high upside guys with varying skill sets, so teams will have their pick of exactly what they're looking for. Auburn shortstop Will Holland came into the season as a potential first rounder after a strong sophomore season (12 HR, .313/.406/.530, 49/28 K/BB) and a solid run through the Cape Cod League (.341/.431/.432), but he has slumped significantly as a junior, slashing .247/.378/.403 with seven home runs and a 49/27 strikeout to walk ratio and now looks more like a second or even a third rounder. Fortunately, his bat has picked up a little bit as of late, but he still doesn't look like the same hitter he was a year ago. The tools, whippy swing, and strong defense are still there, the latter of which will buy his bat time to develop, but he's a much higher risk proposition than he used to be and could turn into anything from a starting shortstop to a light hitting utility guy. UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones has an interesting profile, with very apparent strengths and equally apparent weaknesses. Jones is slashing .332/.478/.518 with four home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 39/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games, though he hasn't faced the strongest competition in the Colonial Athletic Association. Jones draws a ton of walks, which is especially helpful as a likely leadoff type with top of the scale speed, and he showed that speed off with 20 stolen bases in 37 Cape Cod League games this past summer. He also hits plenty of doubles and triples, and some think that he could grow into his 6'2" frame a bit more and add more power. Defensively, he looks good on the right day but can lose focus at shortstop and may be forced to move to center field, where he has looked very good in the past due to his exceptional speed. Look for Jones to go in the second round. Kyren Paris, like Gunnar Henderson, has seen his name shooting up draft boards, though he still stands a hair behind his Alabama counterpart. Paris is a high schooler near Oakland, California, who makes consistent hard contact with the potential to add some power once he adds loft to his swing. Defensively, he is a very strong shortstop with a very good chance to stay there, giving him high upside on both sides of the ball. Additionally, he doesn't turn 18 until November, which makes him one of the youngest players available and which gives him plenty of time to grow into his skills. He has moved himself from a third-ish rounder to more of a fringe first rounder, but he has drawn considerable interest from teams as high as the middle of the first round. Anthony Volpe, a New Jersey high schooler, is yet another kid with serious helium, pushing his way from the third to the second round. Volpe won't wow you with any of his tools, but he is considered one of the hardest working, most likable players in the draft. He's more of a contact hitter than a power hitter, but he makes consistent contact and should maximize his skill set there. Defensively, he looks more like a second baseman at first glance, but he is extremely scrappy and will do everything he can to remain a shortstop. The sum of the parts are in the utility-infielder range, but scouts are quick to say that he should not be underestimated and think the whole could be much more than that. Nasim Nunez is another guy who scouts fall in love with just due to the way he plays the game. The Atlanta high schooler is an exceptional shortstop who will not only stick there, but provide significant positive value and contend for Gold Gloves. However, his bat is far behind his glove, as he is listed at 5'9" and 155 pounds and lacks the ability to drive the ball for any kind of significant power. He makes consistent contact, and whichever team drafts him will hope that he can grow into enough gap power to justify his spot in a starting lineup. He and Volpe both look like second rounders who could sneak into the comp round. Lastly, Yordys Valdes has a fairly similar profile to Nunez, though Nunez is clearly the better player. Valdes is a high schooler near Miami, also showing fantastic defense at shortstop despite significantly less speed than Nunez. He also has shown some feel for the barrel, but his bat is even behind that of Nunez, making him more likely to end up a utility infielder. He figures to be a third round pick with the chance to sneaking into the second.
Others: Tanner Morris, Grae Kessinger, Ivan Johnson, Michael Curialle, Myles Austin
Thursday, May 16, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Second Basemen
It's hard to say exactly who ends up at second base down the road, as most second basemen begin their pro careers as shortstop (as will many of the players listed below), so this list is more of an educated guess as to who will end up at second base long term. There are no standouts here, with many projecting to be solid utility infielders, though there are some very good bats to be found at both the college and high school levels.
Tier I: Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake
There are two second basemen with serious first round aspirations, though both currently play shortstop. In my opinion, North Carolina State's Will Wilson is the superior prospect, having hit well all three years in Raleigh, improving each time. This year has been his best, as he slashed .346/.429/.681 with 15 home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio through 47 games as of this writing, showcasing both power and the ability to make consistent hard contact against quality ACC pitching. He's a smaller guy at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing and should continue to hit for power at the next level. While he doesn't have the most advanced feel for the strike zone in the ACC, he has a strong enough plate discipline that it shouldn't be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at short with his athleticism and strong arm, but his most likely landing spot will be second base, where he should be an above average defender. Meanwhile, Braden Shewmake over at Texas A&M remains a first round prospect, though he was better in 2018 (5 HR, .325/.395/.450, 21/21 K/BB) than in 2019 (5 HR, .307/.360/.462, 23/17 K/BB). Shewmake is a much bigger guy than Wilson at 6'4", but he's skinny and scouts are unsure if he will ever grow into that frame. However, if he does, the additional power he could generate would give him very high upside given his already strong bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel. While Wilson is likely destined for second base, Shewmake could end up at any infield position to the left of first base due to his stronger arm and bigger size. However, if the power never comes, Shewmake will be more of a table-setter than a true impact hitter. Both Wilson and Shewmake project to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, though Shewmake could fall into the comp round.
Tier II: Chase Strumpf, Brooks Lee, Matthew Lugo
These three potential future second basemen couldn't be more different, but all of their skill sets add up to roughly the same tier. Chase Strumpf, as the only college player in this tier, holds the least risk, though like Shewmake he was better as a sophomore last year (12 HR, .363/.475/.633, 53/45 K/BB) than as a junior this year (7 HR, .309/.453/.503, 43/41 K/BB). He is also unique on this list because he is the only player who actually plays second base right now, manning the keystone for the best college team in the country, the UCLA Bruins. As a mediocre to decent defender, Strumpf's value is mostly tied to his bat, as he combines high walk rates with good present power to be a force in the middle of the Bruins lineup. His bat projects to be productive in the major leagues with the potential to reach true impact level, though there is enough swing and miss in his game (to go along with his reduced numbers this year) to put some risk there. Because he's nothing special defensively, he'll need to hit to hold value, and he projects as a second rounder. Meanwhile, Brooks Lee has one of the more interesting profiles of this year's high school crop. As the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, it comes as no surprise that Brooks has tremendous feel for the game and that he maximizes his skill set at every turn. A switch hitter, neither his left handed nor right handed swings are all that smooth, but he has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can make consistent hard contact against even the best high school pitching. He is also a competent defender that could stick at short but who may have to move to second or third base down the line, but it's really the hit tool and the high baseball IQ you are buying here. He'll need some mechanical adjustments in pro ball and has a second round profile, but teams like his feel for the game enough that he could sneak into the comp round. Matthew Lugo, the top Puerto Rican prospect this year, is much more raw than Lee but has plenty of upside. He is athletic and projectable, with his whippy swing providing some power projection down the road. His future position is up in the air, but he should provide positive defensive value either as a workable shortstop or as a solid second or third baseman. All together, he has a high ceiling as a very productive regular and a low floor, so he could go anywhere in the second or third rounds.
Tier III: Cameron Cannon, Josh Smith, Christian Cairo
By tier three, you're definitely looking at guys who are more likely to end up as utility infielders than true starters. Still, there are a couple of good options to choose from, each of whom comes with relatively lower risk. Arizona's Cameron Cannon has been very strong with the bat, slashing .391/.473/.633 with seven home runs and a 28/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games for the Wildcats, showing very few holes in his game. He has great feel for the barrel and a solid approach at the plate, giving him a high chance to hit well in pro ball, and he packs some power into his 5'10" frame due to his whippy swing that could produce even more in pro ball. He's nothing special defensively, but he's a gamer who can handle pretty much any position and he has a classic utility infield profile. Louisiana State's Josh Smith, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, slashing .345/.440/.518 with seven home runs and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Tigers in a breakout junior season. He also shows some power and the ability to play multiple positions, showing a little more arm strength but a little less power projection than Cannon. He also strikes out just a little more than you would like for a player with his profile, so he and Cannon both look like third rounders at this point with the chance to sneak into the second. Meanwhile, Christian Cairo has a similar profile to both, though he's still in high school in the Tampa area. The son of MLB veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian brings the expected feel for the game and in that sense isn't too dissimilar to Brooks Lee. However, Lee shows more power projection, with Cairo looking more like a consistent line drive bat who shows a good feel for the zone and who makes all of the routine plays in the infield. He has a clean swing and should have little trouble transitioning to pro ball with the ultimate projection of being a utility infielder with the chance for more.
Others: Brady McConnell, Gabe Holt, Michael Massey
Tier I: Will Wilson, Braden Shewmake
There are two second basemen with serious first round aspirations, though both currently play shortstop. In my opinion, North Carolina State's Will Wilson is the superior prospect, having hit well all three years in Raleigh, improving each time. This year has been his best, as he slashed .346/.429/.681 with 15 home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio through 47 games as of this writing, showcasing both power and the ability to make consistent hard contact against quality ACC pitching. He's a smaller guy at 5'11" and 175 pounds, but he generates a ton of torque in his right handed swing and should continue to hit for power at the next level. While he doesn't have the most advanced feel for the strike zone in the ACC, he has a strong enough plate discipline that it shouldn't be an issue in pro ball. Defensively, he has a shot to stick at short with his athleticism and strong arm, but his most likely landing spot will be second base, where he should be an above average defender. Meanwhile, Braden Shewmake over at Texas A&M remains a first round prospect, though he was better in 2018 (5 HR, .325/.395/.450, 21/21 K/BB) than in 2019 (5 HR, .307/.360/.462, 23/17 K/BB). Shewmake is a much bigger guy than Wilson at 6'4", but he's skinny and scouts are unsure if he will ever grow into that frame. However, if he does, the additional power he could generate would give him very high upside given his already strong bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel. While Wilson is likely destined for second base, Shewmake could end up at any infield position to the left of first base due to his stronger arm and bigger size. However, if the power never comes, Shewmake will be more of a table-setter than a true impact hitter. Both Wilson and Shewmake project to go somewhere in the back half of the first round, though Shewmake could fall into the comp round.
Tier II: Chase Strumpf, Brooks Lee, Matthew Lugo
These three potential future second basemen couldn't be more different, but all of their skill sets add up to roughly the same tier. Chase Strumpf, as the only college player in this tier, holds the least risk, though like Shewmake he was better as a sophomore last year (12 HR, .363/.475/.633, 53/45 K/BB) than as a junior this year (7 HR, .309/.453/.503, 43/41 K/BB). He is also unique on this list because he is the only player who actually plays second base right now, manning the keystone for the best college team in the country, the UCLA Bruins. As a mediocre to decent defender, Strumpf's value is mostly tied to his bat, as he combines high walk rates with good present power to be a force in the middle of the Bruins lineup. His bat projects to be productive in the major leagues with the potential to reach true impact level, though there is enough swing and miss in his game (to go along with his reduced numbers this year) to put some risk there. Because he's nothing special defensively, he'll need to hit to hold value, and he projects as a second rounder. Meanwhile, Brooks Lee has one of the more interesting profiles of this year's high school crop. As the son of Cal Poly head coach Larry Lee, it comes as no surprise that Brooks has tremendous feel for the game and that he maximizes his skill set at every turn. A switch hitter, neither his left handed nor right handed swings are all that smooth, but he has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can make consistent hard contact against even the best high school pitching. He is also a competent defender that could stick at short but who may have to move to second or third base down the line, but it's really the hit tool and the high baseball IQ you are buying here. He'll need some mechanical adjustments in pro ball and has a second round profile, but teams like his feel for the game enough that he could sneak into the comp round. Matthew Lugo, the top Puerto Rican prospect this year, is much more raw than Lee but has plenty of upside. He is athletic and projectable, with his whippy swing providing some power projection down the road. His future position is up in the air, but he should provide positive defensive value either as a workable shortstop or as a solid second or third baseman. All together, he has a high ceiling as a very productive regular and a low floor, so he could go anywhere in the second or third rounds.
Tier III: Cameron Cannon, Josh Smith, Christian Cairo
By tier three, you're definitely looking at guys who are more likely to end up as utility infielders than true starters. Still, there are a couple of good options to choose from, each of whom comes with relatively lower risk. Arizona's Cameron Cannon has been very strong with the bat, slashing .391/.473/.633 with seven home runs and a 28/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games for the Wildcats, showing very few holes in his game. He has great feel for the barrel and a solid approach at the plate, giving him a high chance to hit well in pro ball, and he packs some power into his 5'10" frame due to his whippy swing that could produce even more in pro ball. He's nothing special defensively, but he's a gamer who can handle pretty much any position and he has a classic utility infield profile. Louisiana State's Josh Smith, meanwhile, has been as steady as they come, slashing .345/.440/.518 with seven home runs and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games for the Tigers in a breakout junior season. He also shows some power and the ability to play multiple positions, showing a little more arm strength but a little less power projection than Cannon. He also strikes out just a little more than you would like for a player with his profile, so he and Cannon both look like third rounders at this point with the chance to sneak into the second. Meanwhile, Christian Cairo has a similar profile to both, though he's still in high school in the Tampa area. The son of MLB veteran Miguel Cairo, Christian brings the expected feel for the game and in that sense isn't too dissimilar to Brooks Lee. However, Lee shows more power projection, with Cairo looking more like a consistent line drive bat who shows a good feel for the zone and who makes all of the routine plays in the infield. He has a clean swing and should have little trouble transitioning to pro ball with the ultimate projection of being a utility infielder with the chance for more.
Others: Brady McConnell, Gabe Holt, Michael Massey
Monday, May 13, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: First Basemen
This is more of a preliminary list of first basemen, as many current third basemen (Josh Jung, Kody Hoese, Drew Mendoza, Rece Hinds, etc.) could be forced across the diamond as pressure mounts on their glove-work. Once a player ends up at first, the pressure is immediately on the bat to perform because most of these guys aren't providing much value defensively. That said, there is a group of first basemen in this class that can really hit, and it's led by California's Andrew Vaughn, one of the best hitters in recent draft memory. Behind him, everyone else has questions about something, whether contact, power, or both, but all carry potent bats with high upside.
Tier I: Andrew Vaughn
The Cal slugger stands alone in the first tier. Andrew Vaughn is as good as it gets at the plate, following up his monster sophomore season (23 HR, .402/.531/.819, 18/44 K/BB) with a big junior season, slashing .374/.530/712 with 14 home runs and a 28/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games (including .318/.465/.580 with five home runs in 24 games against a tough in-conference schedule). Vaughn is incredibly disciplined at the plate, walking just about twice as often as he strikes out and putting himself in a great position to handle higher level pitching. That helps him get to his big raw power often, as he has cracked 49 home runs over 154 games at Cal, slugging .690 along the way. Vaughn looks like a fairly safe bet to be a middle of the order masher, which should alleviate any concerns over his lack of defensive value. He figures to go either to the White Sox with the third pick or the Marlins with the fourth pick, with a small chance he falls to the Tigers at #5 or Padres at #6.
Tier II: Michael Busch, Logan Wyatt, Tyler Callihan
After Vaughn, we are unlikely to see another first baseman taken until the back half of the first round. There, three more bats come into play, though each has their share of question marks. UNC's Michael Busch followed up a big sophomore season (13 HR, .317/.465/.521, 30/55 K/BB) with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), then came out and slashed .285/.447/.543 with 12 home runs and a 34/50 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 51 games this season. Busch showcases big raw power with a keen eye at the plate, and that advanced plate discipline helped drive his performance on the Cape. Mechanically, he keeps his hands back well, but sometimes they look like they take a little bit too long to get going, which could lead to swing and miss concerns at the next level. Still, he has a very strong track record to stand on, and he could fit into the second half of the first round as a potential high on-base, home run-hitting producer, albeit with a bit more risk than Vaughn. Meanwhile, Louisville's Logan Wyatt has a fairly similar profile to Busch, showing a better present approach at the plate with a bit less power. After slashing .339/.490/.522 with six home runs and a 37/63 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he hit well on the Cape (4 HR, .305/.458/.438, 24/29 K/BB) and has been strong during his junior season, slashing .304/.472/.508 with eight home runs and a 36/57 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Wyatt, like Vaughn, has an exceptional feel for the strike zone that should have no problem playing up at the next level, and while his power has played closer to average at Louisville, he has started to add some loft to his swing and could his his 6'4" frame to eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season. Given that Busch looks on track to land in that range as well, I actually prefer Wyatt as a prospect and would draft him before his ACC rival. That looks unlikely to happen, though, and Wyatt probably fits somewhere in the comp round in the 30-40 range. Tyler Callihan, a high schooler from Jacksonville, is actually a third baseman at this point, but I include him here due to the lack of present-first basemen and the strong possibility that he is forced across the diamond. Callihan stands just 5'11", small for a corner infielder, but he has great feel for the barrel and consistently sprays line drives and extra base hits around the field. The South Carolina commit also generates a fair amount of loft and torque in his swing, giving him the chance to turn those doubles into home runs down the line, and he's a better contact hitter (relative to his age) than Busch and possibly Wyatt at this point. He also may be able to stick at third base, where there would be less pressure for him to develop power. Like Wyatt, he figures to go somewhere in the comp round or early second round.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Spencer Brickhouse
The third tier of guys obviously come with their own set of questions, all showing the tools to be impact hitters at the next level but but also having holes in their profile. Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones has one of the more unique profiles in this class, as he is the top two-way player in the draft and could very realistically, even likely, be drafted as a pitcher. Additionally, he opened enough eyes over the summer to earn some first round buzz, but an elbow injury (not Tommy John) cost him his whole spring, and he's really all projection and not much track record at this point. Standing 6'7", he generates a lot of power from the left side and made pretty good contact over the summer, giving him a ton of upside at the plate if he were to give up hitting and focus solely on improving and getting to that power. However, without much of a track record, it may be difficult for teams to pay enough money to keep him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. It's hard to project where he'll be drafted, but he currently looks like a second rounder based on talent alone. Over at UCLA, Michael Toglia has been right in the middle of a Bruins lineup that has powered the team to the top of the college baseball world (so far), though his numbers are down a hair from his sophomore season. After slashing .336/.449/.588 with 11 home runs and a 60/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he's down to .303/.374/.585 with 11 home runs and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 games in 2019. He has a simple swing (from both sides of the plate) with some loft that should help him continue to produce at the next level, but he also lacks the strong plate discipline that has pushed Busch and Wyatt into first round consideration. That led to a more pedestrian .209/.323/.388 line with seven home runs on the Cape, though switch hitters do take longer to develop sometimes and Toglia also won't be 21 until August, making him one of the younger college players available. He looks like a second rounder at this point with the potential to hit 20-30 home runs in the majors with middling on-base percentages – a classic #5 hitter. Lastly, despite there being more draft buzz around his teammate Bryant Packard coming into the season, Spencer Brickhouse has led the East Carolina offense by slashing .333/.473/.648 with 12 home runs and a 36/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games. Standing at 6'4", he uses a simple swing and quick wrists to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences, though his low and wide setup at the plate sometimes causes the bat path to get a little long. He has solid plate discipline working in his favor and he has produced in college ball, so he shout fit somewhere into rounds three through five.
Others: Andrew Daschbach, Jason Hodges, Henry Gargus, Garrett Frechette, Joe Naranjo
Tier I: Andrew Vaughn
The Cal slugger stands alone in the first tier. Andrew Vaughn is as good as it gets at the plate, following up his monster sophomore season (23 HR, .402/.531/.819, 18/44 K/BB) with a big junior season, slashing .374/.530/712 with 14 home runs and a 28/50 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games (including .318/.465/.580 with five home runs in 24 games against a tough in-conference schedule). Vaughn is incredibly disciplined at the plate, walking just about twice as often as he strikes out and putting himself in a great position to handle higher level pitching. That helps him get to his big raw power often, as he has cracked 49 home runs over 154 games at Cal, slugging .690 along the way. Vaughn looks like a fairly safe bet to be a middle of the order masher, which should alleviate any concerns over his lack of defensive value. He figures to go either to the White Sox with the third pick or the Marlins with the fourth pick, with a small chance he falls to the Tigers at #5 or Padres at #6.
Tier II: Michael Busch, Logan Wyatt, Tyler Callihan
After Vaughn, we are unlikely to see another first baseman taken until the back half of the first round. There, three more bats come into play, though each has their share of question marks. UNC's Michael Busch followed up a big sophomore season (13 HR, .317/.465/.521, 30/55 K/BB) with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (6 HR, .322/.450/.567, 17/19 K/BB), then came out and slashed .285/.447/.543 with 12 home runs and a 34/50 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 51 games this season. Busch showcases big raw power with a keen eye at the plate, and that advanced plate discipline helped drive his performance on the Cape. Mechanically, he keeps his hands back well, but sometimes they look like they take a little bit too long to get going, which could lead to swing and miss concerns at the next level. Still, he has a very strong track record to stand on, and he could fit into the second half of the first round as a potential high on-base, home run-hitting producer, albeit with a bit more risk than Vaughn. Meanwhile, Louisville's Logan Wyatt has a fairly similar profile to Busch, showing a better present approach at the plate with a bit less power. After slashing .339/.490/.522 with six home runs and a 37/63 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he hit well on the Cape (4 HR, .305/.458/.438, 24/29 K/BB) and has been strong during his junior season, slashing .304/.472/.508 with eight home runs and a 36/57 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. Wyatt, like Vaughn, has an exceptional feel for the strike zone that should have no problem playing up at the next level, and while his power has played closer to average at Louisville, he has started to add some loft to his swing and could his his 6'4" frame to eventually hit 20-30 home runs per season. Given that Busch looks on track to land in that range as well, I actually prefer Wyatt as a prospect and would draft him before his ACC rival. That looks unlikely to happen, though, and Wyatt probably fits somewhere in the comp round in the 30-40 range. Tyler Callihan, a high schooler from Jacksonville, is actually a third baseman at this point, but I include him here due to the lack of present-first basemen and the strong possibility that he is forced across the diamond. Callihan stands just 5'11", small for a corner infielder, but he has great feel for the barrel and consistently sprays line drives and extra base hits around the field. The South Carolina commit also generates a fair amount of loft and torque in his swing, giving him the chance to turn those doubles into home runs down the line, and he's a better contact hitter (relative to his age) than Busch and possibly Wyatt at this point. He also may be able to stick at third base, where there would be less pressure for him to develop power. Like Wyatt, he figures to go somewhere in the comp round or early second round.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Michael Toglia, Spencer Brickhouse
The third tier of guys obviously come with their own set of questions, all showing the tools to be impact hitters at the next level but but also having holes in their profile. Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones has one of the more unique profiles in this class, as he is the top two-way player in the draft and could very realistically, even likely, be drafted as a pitcher. Additionally, he opened enough eyes over the summer to earn some first round buzz, but an elbow injury (not Tommy John) cost him his whole spring, and he's really all projection and not much track record at this point. Standing 6'7", he generates a lot of power from the left side and made pretty good contact over the summer, giving him a ton of upside at the plate if he were to give up hitting and focus solely on improving and getting to that power. However, without much of a track record, it may be difficult for teams to pay enough money to keep him away from his Vanderbilt commitment. It's hard to project where he'll be drafted, but he currently looks like a second rounder based on talent alone. Over at UCLA, Michael Toglia has been right in the middle of a Bruins lineup that has powered the team to the top of the college baseball world (so far), though his numbers are down a hair from his sophomore season. After slashing .336/.449/.588 with 11 home runs and a 60/48 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he's down to .303/.374/.585 with 11 home runs and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio through 49 games in 2019. He has a simple swing (from both sides of the plate) with some loft that should help him continue to produce at the next level, but he also lacks the strong plate discipline that has pushed Busch and Wyatt into first round consideration. That led to a more pedestrian .209/.323/.388 line with seven home runs on the Cape, though switch hitters do take longer to develop sometimes and Toglia also won't be 21 until August, making him one of the younger college players available. He looks like a second rounder at this point with the potential to hit 20-30 home runs in the majors with middling on-base percentages – a classic #5 hitter. Lastly, despite there being more draft buzz around his teammate Bryant Packard coming into the season, Spencer Brickhouse has led the East Carolina offense by slashing .333/.473/.648 with 12 home runs and a 36/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 46 games. Standing at 6'4", he uses a simple swing and quick wrists to drive the ball into the gaps and over fences, though his low and wide setup at the plate sometimes causes the bat path to get a little long. He has solid plate discipline working in his favor and he has produced in college ball, so he shout fit somewhere into rounds three through five.
Others: Andrew Daschbach, Jason Hodges, Henry Gargus, Garrett Frechette, Joe Naranjo
Monday, May 6, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Bobby Witt Jr.
SS Bobby Witt Jr., Colleyville Heritage HS, TX
6' 180 lbs, R/R, born 6/14/2000
By most accounts, Bobby Witt Jr. is the best high school prospect in the country, showing high upside on both sides of the ball with a broad toolset and great track record. His strengths, which are numerous, are very clear, while his weaknesses, which are few but certainly present, are also very clear. Witt is a power hitting shortstop with the ability to stay there, showcasing great power on the showcase circuit from a big, long swing. Despite the swing being long, he does a good job of getting the bat through the zone and he should have no trouble getting to his power in pro ball. However, because of the long swing, Witt does have a tendency to strike out a fair amount, leading to slight concerns about just how effective his in-game power will be against advanced pitching.
Witt currently plays shortstop and while he likely won't win Gold Gloves out there, he is athletic enough to stick there long term and contribute positive defensive value. Long term shortstops are not easy to find, and ones that can hit are even scarcer. That makes Witt extremely valuable as a player, giving the team that drafts him a truly dynamic asset. It also buys his hit tool some slack, because even in a worst-case scenario where he really struggles with strikeouts long term, his raw power combined with his defense will still make him a valuable player. Now, one last thing to note is Witt's age, as he turns 19 shortly after the draft, making him one of the older high school players available. Still, it will be very surprising if he ends up falling out of the top five or six picks unless signability plays a big role. He is committed to Oklahoma.
Ultimate projection: impact bat that will also provide good defense at shortstop, ceiling of a true middle of the order bat and a realistic middle ground as a productive power hitter with middling OBP's
Likely draft range: picks two through four overall
6' 180 lbs, R/R, born 6/14/2000
By most accounts, Bobby Witt Jr. is the best high school prospect in the country, showing high upside on both sides of the ball with a broad toolset and great track record. His strengths, which are numerous, are very clear, while his weaknesses, which are few but certainly present, are also very clear. Witt is a power hitting shortstop with the ability to stay there, showcasing great power on the showcase circuit from a big, long swing. Despite the swing being long, he does a good job of getting the bat through the zone and he should have no trouble getting to his power in pro ball. However, because of the long swing, Witt does have a tendency to strike out a fair amount, leading to slight concerns about just how effective his in-game power will be against advanced pitching.
Witt currently plays shortstop and while he likely won't win Gold Gloves out there, he is athletic enough to stick there long term and contribute positive defensive value. Long term shortstops are not easy to find, and ones that can hit are even scarcer. That makes Witt extremely valuable as a player, giving the team that drafts him a truly dynamic asset. It also buys his hit tool some slack, because even in a worst-case scenario where he really struggles with strikeouts long term, his raw power combined with his defense will still make him a valuable player. Now, one last thing to note is Witt's age, as he turns 19 shortly after the draft, making him one of the older high school players available. Still, it will be very surprising if he ends up falling out of the top five or six picks unless signability plays a big role. He is committed to Oklahoma.
Ultimate projection: impact bat that will also provide good defense at shortstop, ceiling of a true middle of the order bat and a realistic middle ground as a productive power hitter with middling OBP's
Likely draft range: picks two through four overall
Friday, May 3, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Andrew Vaughn
1B Andrew Vaughn, University of California
6' 215 lbs, R/R, born 4/3/1998
Adley Rutschman is easily the best player available, but there is one guy who can swing it with him in the college crop. Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn has raked since day one in Berkeley, having slashed .349/.414/.555 with 12 home runs as a freshman in 2017 and then .402/.531/.819 with 23 home runs as a sophomore in 2018. Through his first 39 games in 2019, he is putting up similar numbers with a .384/.535/.696 line, 11 home runs, and a 26/44 strikeout to walk ratio in the middle of Cal's lineup. Vaughn is a complete hitter; he hits for plenty of power, has a fantastic eye for the strike zone, and makes consistent hard contact. You can't beat his track record (46 HR, .377/.491/.685, 68/104 K/BB over 147 games at Cal), and he hit well in a small sample in the Cape Cod League in 2018 as well (5 HR, .308/.368/.654, 10/3 K/BB in 14 games).
Unlike Rutschman, Vaughn doesn't have the defensive value to make himself a can't-miss prospect. Vaughn is a first baseman only, and while he's pretty decent there, it is unlikely he could make it work in the outfield or at third base. That means that all of the pressure will be on his bat, which isn't exactly a problem considering how potent that bat is. Vaughn might actually be a better pure hitting prospect than Rutschman (though with Rutschman's big 2019, that may no longer be the case), but without the added defensive value, he fits more in the 2-4 range than at first overall. However, barring an injury Once drafted, Vaughn should move quickly through the minors be a middle of the order bat in the near future.
Ultimate projection: true middle of the order bat capable of 30+ homers and on-base percentages in the .400 range annually
Likely draft range: picks two through four overall
6' 215 lbs, R/R, born 4/3/1998
Adley Rutschman is easily the best player available, but there is one guy who can swing it with him in the college crop. Cal first baseman Andrew Vaughn has raked since day one in Berkeley, having slashed .349/.414/.555 with 12 home runs as a freshman in 2017 and then .402/.531/.819 with 23 home runs as a sophomore in 2018. Through his first 39 games in 2019, he is putting up similar numbers with a .384/.535/.696 line, 11 home runs, and a 26/44 strikeout to walk ratio in the middle of Cal's lineup. Vaughn is a complete hitter; he hits for plenty of power, has a fantastic eye for the strike zone, and makes consistent hard contact. You can't beat his track record (46 HR, .377/.491/.685, 68/104 K/BB over 147 games at Cal), and he hit well in a small sample in the Cape Cod League in 2018 as well (5 HR, .308/.368/.654, 10/3 K/BB in 14 games).
Unlike Rutschman, Vaughn doesn't have the defensive value to make himself a can't-miss prospect. Vaughn is a first baseman only, and while he's pretty decent there, it is unlikely he could make it work in the outfield or at third base. That means that all of the pressure will be on his bat, which isn't exactly a problem considering how potent that bat is. Vaughn might actually be a better pure hitting prospect than Rutschman (though with Rutschman's big 2019, that may no longer be the case), but without the added defensive value, he fits more in the 2-4 range than at first overall. However, barring an injury Once drafted, Vaughn should move quickly through the minors be a middle of the order bat in the near future.
Ultimate projection: true middle of the order bat capable of 30+ homers and on-base percentages in the .400 range annually
Likely draft range: picks two through four overall
Thursday, May 2, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Adley Rutschman
C Adley Rutschman, Oregon State
6'2" 215 lbs, S/R, born 2/6/1998
If you're at all familiar with the prospects of the 2019 Draft, you certainly know all about Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman. If you're late to the game, it's time to get caught up; Adley Rutschman is the best prospect in this draft and is a near-lock to go first overall to the Baltimore Orioles when the draft rolls around on June 3rd. So, who is he?
Adley Rutschman, from the southwestern Portland suburb of Sherwood, has been the Oregon State Beavers' starting catcher for three years. The switch-hitter slashed just .234/.322/.306 as a freshman in 2017, but the coaching staff liked what they saw and he broke out in a big way. In 2018, as a sophomore, Rutschman slashed .408/.505/.628 with nine home runs and an excellent 40/53 strikeout to walk ratio, setting himself up as an early favorite for the 2019 Draft. Then, in 2019, he got even better; through May 2nd, the junior is slashing .429/.576/.800 with 14 home runs and a ridiculous 28/54 strikeout to walk ratio, showing literally no holes in his game. He has power, he gets to it consistently, he knows the strike zone inside and out, and it all adds up to a complete offensive package.
However, it's not just his bat that makes him special. Rutschman is considered a fearless leader behind the plate, where he blocks everything and uses his strong arm to cut off the opposition's running game. Catchers are almost always bat-first or glove-first, but Rutschman is the rare find that has both an impact bat and no risk of being forced to move out from behind the plate. Even Joey Bart, the second overall pick to the Giants in 2018, had some swing and miss concerns, and while Rutschman doesn't have quite the same light tower power, he is easily the better prospect heading into his respective draft. Throw in his reportedly excellent work ethic, and he in all likelihood will be the first overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft.
Ultimate projection: middle of the order bat with good defense behind the plate, true MVP potential
Likely draft range: would be surprising if he falls past the Orioles at first overall
6'2" 215 lbs, S/R, born 2/6/1998
If you're at all familiar with the prospects of the 2019 Draft, you certainly know all about Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman. If you're late to the game, it's time to get caught up; Adley Rutschman is the best prospect in this draft and is a near-lock to go first overall to the Baltimore Orioles when the draft rolls around on June 3rd. So, who is he?
Adley Rutschman, from the southwestern Portland suburb of Sherwood, has been the Oregon State Beavers' starting catcher for three years. The switch-hitter slashed just .234/.322/.306 as a freshman in 2017, but the coaching staff liked what they saw and he broke out in a big way. In 2018, as a sophomore, Rutschman slashed .408/.505/.628 with nine home runs and an excellent 40/53 strikeout to walk ratio, setting himself up as an early favorite for the 2019 Draft. Then, in 2019, he got even better; through May 2nd, the junior is slashing .429/.576/.800 with 14 home runs and a ridiculous 28/54 strikeout to walk ratio, showing literally no holes in his game. He has power, he gets to it consistently, he knows the strike zone inside and out, and it all adds up to a complete offensive package.
However, it's not just his bat that makes him special. Rutschman is considered a fearless leader behind the plate, where he blocks everything and uses his strong arm to cut off the opposition's running game. Catchers are almost always bat-first or glove-first, but Rutschman is the rare find that has both an impact bat and no risk of being forced to move out from behind the plate. Even Joey Bart, the second overall pick to the Giants in 2018, had some swing and miss concerns, and while Rutschman doesn't have quite the same light tower power, he is easily the better prospect heading into his respective draft. Throw in his reportedly excellent work ethic, and he in all likelihood will be the first overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft.
Ultimate projection: middle of the order bat with good defense behind the plate, true MVP potential
Likely draft range: would be surprising if he falls past the Orioles at first overall
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