Sunday, November 30, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Seattle Mariners

Full list of draftees

The Mariners have drafted really, really well lately, and this class was no different. Beginning with arguably the best pitcher in the class to add to the embarrassment of riches in their rotation, Seattle focused the majority of its bonus pool on three big picks at the top: lefty Kade Anderson ($8.8M), catcher Luke Stevenson ($2.8M), and prep shortstop Nick Becker ($2.75M), with no other draftee receiving more than $640K. It was a pitching-heavy class that saw them take nine arms in their first twelve picks, but they did look at Cal Raleigh up in the big leagues and decide they wanted three more, taking a trio of power hitting college catchers in Stevenson, Grant Jay, and Luke Heyman. The three have combined for 135 home runs over 472 games in their college career and in the eight seasons under their belts, none have ever hit fewer than a dozen home runs in a single year.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: LHP Kade Anderson, Louisiana State
Slot value: $9.5 million. Signing bonus: $8.8 million ($704,400 below slot value).
My rank: #3. MLB Pipeline: #2. Baseball America: #4.
Kade Anderson's meteoric rise has been something to behold, and in an organization that develops pitching as effectively as Seattle, it's a downright scary match. Anderson immediately took on a large role as an LSU freshman in 2024, earning second round projections for himself coming into the 2025 season as a projectable lefty with a nice combination of stuff and pitchability. He continued creeping up draft boards by striking out at least eight batters in each of his first six starts, then rocketed forward with a fourteen strikeout, complete game shutout against Oklahoma on April 3rd. By mid-season, he was a mid-first rounder. When he took the mound on June 21st for the opening game of the College World Series championship, there was already buzz about the first overall pick. All Anderson did that day was toss another complete game shutout, allowing just three hits and striking out ten against a Coastal Carolina team riding a 26 game winning streak, cementing his spot as one of the top pitchers in the class. His $8.8 million bonus was the largest given to a pitcher in this year's class, and now he projects to become an ace in Seattle someday soon. The fastball has moderate velocity, sitting in the low 90's and touching 97 at peak, but plays up with its life that helps it sneak past bats in bunches. He has long relied on a plus curveball with huge spin rates and deep finish, while this season he successfully added a sharper cutter/slider into the mix. His changeup, which has taken a step forward this season as well, gives him a fourth above average pitch and a weapon against right handed hitters. The 6'2" lefty is still a skinny kid who may lack a ton of projection, but the now product is exceptional and he answered durability questions in a big way by leading NCAA Division I with 119 innings pitched (and 180 strikeouts). Anderson fills up the strike zone with all four pitches and projects for at least above average command, repeating his simple delivery well to conserve energy and last deep into starts without sacrificing stuff. He has earned comparisons to pitchability lefties like Cole Hamels, Max Fried, and J.A. Happ, though he's not quite as big. Anderson seems like a likely #2 starter who could glide to the big leagues quickly and hold down a rotation spot for a long time. To boot, he was a draft-eligible sophomore who only turned 21 in July, making him younger than most college draftees.

CBA-35: C Luke Stevenson, North Carolina
Slot value: $2.76 million. Signing bonus: $2.8 million ($41,700 above slot value).
My rank: #25. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #25.
The Mariners saw what Cal Raleigh was doing this year and decided to pick up a very similar player in Luke Stevenson. One of the centerpieces of UNC's freshman recruiting class two years ago, Stevenson immediately took over as the program's starting catcher and has blasted 33 home runs in two seasons for the Tar Heels, holding down first round projections throughout. Lauded for his pop, he can drive the ball to all fields with authority with a compact, explosive left handed swing that elevates the ball consistently and produces plus power. His 19 home runs in 2025 finished fourth among Division I catchers, tied with Seattle's twelfth rounder Grant Jay. Stevenson is an extremely disciplined hitter that knows how to work counts and find his pitch, running some of the lowest chase rates in the 2025 draft class while walking over 20% of the time. That trait is important because he has below average pure bat to ball, which can get him in trouble against pitchers who know how to execute in deep counts. Stevenson projects as a three true outcomes hitter who could hit 25+ home runs per season, which alone would make him a valuable asset as a catcher, while running low batting averages buoyed a bit by higher walk rates. Key to his development going forward will be learning to execute against quality stuff in the zone as pro pitchers get more aggressive attacking him at his weak spots. Behind the plate, his glovework has come a long way and he now projects to not only stick as a catcher but excel in that regard with the requisite actions, blocking, and framing. His above average arm, too, is an asset. There are a ton of parallels to Raleigh in this profile and the Big Dumper shows Mariners fans exactly what could happen in Stevenson reaches his ceiling, though his bat to ball has a ways to go in order to get him there. Like Kade Anderson, he was a draft-eligible sophomore who did not turn 21 until July.

2-57: SS Nick Becker, Don Bosco HS [NJ]
Slot value: $1.64 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($1.11 million above slot value).
My rank: #46. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #79.
Using their entire savings from Kade Anderson and then some, Seattle brings in a big time talent in Nick Becker whom they signed for roughly the value of Luke Stevenson's #35 pick here at #57. Becker brings a great combination of present ability and future projection. A cold weather bat who grew up in New York and attended high school just across the border in New Jersey, he already brings a very advanced game as the younger brother of UVA shortstop Eric Becker and the son of former minor leaguer Jeff Becker. He takes great at bats and has performed consistently against top arms and warmer weather competition that may have had more reps, with great pitch recognition that helps him pepper line drives to all fields and continue to be a thorn in pitchers' sides. While he's hit over power right now, he is still growing and now stands 6'4" with bushels of room to get stronger. As he tacks on strength, he has a chance to grow into average or better power as he grows out of being a line drive bat. Similarly, he is an advanced defender with good body control and enough arm to stick at shortstop, elevating the profile considerably. Becker is an above average runner as well and figures to be a mobile threat on both sides of the ball even as he gets bigger and potentially slows down a tick. While he lacks a plus tool, he has All Star upside as a potential high average type that can hit 15-20 home runs per season and stick at shortstop. Shortstops who can near the middle of the order are hard to come by and get MVP votes when they do come around.

3-91: RHP Griffin Hugus, Miami
Slot value: $851,800. Signing bonus: $640,000 ($211,800 below slot value).
My rank: #126. MLB Pipeline: #169. Baseball America: #113.
Griffin Hugus spent two years at Cincinnati, where he served primarily as a reliever to middling results, then transferred back home to Miami where he blossomed into one of the Canes' more reliable starting pitchers. He capped off the season with a complete game win over Ivy League champion Columbia in the Hattiesburg Regional for his second to last start, and ultimately brings the Mariners a nice combination of stuff and pitchability for a discount. The fastball sits low 90's and touches 95, playing above its velocity with run and ride that help it hop through the zone. He throws a plus slider with late bite that functions as his best pitch, while truer curveball is more of an average breaker to catch hitters off balance. Hugus throws a changeup too, though it's a fourth pitch at this point. While the South Florida native showed below average command back at Cincinnati, it sharpened up during a very strong Cape Cod League run (2.31 ERA, 24/4 K/BB in 23.1 innings) and held closer to fringy during the 2025 season. Additional fine tuning would likely do him good as he gets better as at repeating his uptempo delivery that features some drop and drive to generate power. The 6'2" righty has the size and stuff to stick in the rotation, and now he just has to prove that he can throw enough strikes and repeat his delivery late into games. If starting doesn't work out, his fastball could tick closer to the mid 90's and he can lean more heavily on his banger slider in short stints as a reliever.

4-122: LHP Mason Peters, Dallas Baptist
Slot value: $617,200. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($67,200 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #312.
This feels on brand for the Mariners, who grab one of the tougher lefty relievers out there for a slight discount in the fourth round. Mason Peters spent two seasons at Temple JC in Texas, where he improved significantly from one year to the next and earned a spot at Dallas Baptist for his junior year. Spending most of the season in the bullpen, he did make a few starts including an absolute masterpiece against Liberty in May in which he retired eighteen of the nineteen hitters he faced and struck out ten over six no-hit innings. Peters sits low 90's and touches 96 at peak, coming in with tough angle especially for lefties. His curveball is his best pitch, a two-plane banger that dives across the plate with hard finish and helps him rack up most of his strikeouts. An average slider rounds out the arsenal. Everything plays up for the Waco native because he hides the ball well from a closed off, crossfire delivery that puts nice angle on his pitches. His command has improved to fringy and looks like it should be plenty playable in pro ball. Listed at just 5'11", 175 pounds and utilizing an uptempo delivery, he likely sticks as a reliever long term and focuses on his fastball and curveball. He's likely a bit short across the board between size, arsenal depth, and command if he wants to start. Still, the fastball/curveball combination from a tough lefty angle should make him a valuable reliever, and given the investment here, the Mariners likely see late inning upside.

5-152: OF Korbyn Dickerson, Indiana
Slot value: $461,100. Signing bonus: $461,100.
My rank: #66. MLB Pipeline: #83. Baseball America: #120.
This is a really nice pickup for the Mariners in the fifth round. Korbyn Dickerson put his name on the map with a huge senior season at powerhouse Trinity High School in Louisville back in 2022, then made it to campus at Louisville just across town. Things didn't quite work out with the Cardinals as he sat on the bench his freshman year and received just 22 plate appearances as a sophomore, so he transferred to Indiana for his junior year. Being back in his home state (he crossed the bridge every day to attend Trinity) ended up being just what the doctor ordered, as he exploded for 19 home runs and a .314/.381/.632 line across 56 games for the Hoosiers and made the Big Ten all conference team. Dickerson has massive power, generating everything from an explosive right handed swing and lean strength in his 6'1" frame. The hit tool has taken a big step forward but remains below average as he tends to expand the strike zone but lacks the pure bat to ball to make it work once he starts seeing better pitching in pro ball. His 18.8% strikeout rate was not outrageous this past year, but Indiana did not play the same grueling schedule as many SEC and ACC clubs and Dickerson only got one game against schools from those conferences, putting up a 1-3 performance against his former mates at Louisville. Priority #1 for the Mariners will be helping Dickerson shore up his approach and prepare for better pitching. If he does so and can continue to tap his power, he has star potential. He's also a force on the other side of the ball, showing off above average speed and plus instincts in center field to play Gold Glove defense in the grass. As a right handed hitter who can get streaky at the plate, that glove should give him every opportunity to win an every day role regardless. Dickerson could top out at 25-30 home runs per season while playing a strong center field, albeit with low on-base percentages. He is a true four tool player with everything but the hit tool.

12-362: C Grant Jay, Dallas Baptist
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #164. MLB Pipeline: #170. Baseball America: #128.
Grant Jay represents great value in the back half of the draft. A three year starter at Dallas Baptist, he leaves as one of the greatest hitters in school history and as their all time leader in home runs (61). In his three years, he never hit fewer than 19 home runs in a season, never hit below .300, never put up an on-base percentage below .400, and never slugged below .650. Jay flicks the barrel through the zone with shocking ease while generating borderline plus-plus raw power from his compact right handed swing, playing up in games as he consistently elevates the ball with authority. He crushes fastballs, but so far, he has had no answer against quality offspeed stuff. He struggled mightily on the Cape last summer (.141/.299/.295, 43.3% strikeout rate) and has never struck out fewer than 71 times in a season, running a career 29% strikeout rate at Dallas Baptist with his 25.6% mark in 2025 representing a career best. Jay has well below average bat to ball that might translate to a 30 grade hit tool in pro ball, though his success at DBU lends hope that Seattle's player development can get him right. The power is so impressive that if he can get even to a 40 grade hit tool, he could hit his way up as a power-first catcher. The Mobile native is built like a catcher at a stocky 6', 225 pounds, and his glove is trending in the right direction to keep him behind the plate. His strong arm is a help back there, but he will need to continue to make strides with his defense to stick as a catcher and handle high octane arms in pro ball. If he has to move out, he runs well enough to hold down a corner outfield spot, but pressure will then ratchet up on his hit tool and 40 grade might not be enough. It is in Jay's best interest to further hone his glovework behind the plate, where his power should be enough to carry him up the ladder as a power-over-everything backup catcher. That climb is a lot steeper if he's an outfielder.

14-422: C Luke Heyman, Florida
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $230,000 ($80,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #127.
Yet another power hitting catcher, Luke Heyman has a long track record with scouts dating back to his prep days. A star prep prospect, he had plenty of day two draft interest but wound up on campus at Florida, where he has been the starting catcher for three years and clubbed double digit home runs in each season for a total of 41. Heyman had been draft eligible in 2024, but returned to Florida and put up his best season yet in 2025 despite missing the end of the season with a forearm injury. Listed at 6'4", 220 pounds, he is an imposing presence in the box and hits from a wide base, really channeling his strength into a loud barrel that produces plus raw power. That power plays closer to average in games because he doesn't always square it up and because in 2025, he focused more on contact than he had in the past. The result was a jump in batting average from .246 to .301 and a drop in strikeout rate from 24.3% to 18.5% without too much sacrificed power. The hit tool is still fringy and he carries a career .217/.353/.339 line and a 25.2% strikeout rate over two seasons in the Cape Cod League, so Heyman will likely always be power over hit. He's not the most mobile catcher in the world but has gotten better back there, where his plus arm gives him a chance to stick. The Orlando-area native will need to watch his conditioning and maintain his flexibility as he ages if he wants to remain a catcher, especially given the newfound catching depth in Seattle's system. With well below average speed, first base is just about the only other option, and as a right handed hitter, he'll really need to hit to carve out a role in that regard. Heyman likely projects as a bat-first backup catcher who can pop a few home runs, not too dissimilar to Grant Jay. He is old for a college junior and turned 22 before the draft.

20-602: SS Estevan Moreno, Notre Dame
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Estevan Moreno, like Luke Heyman, was a well-known prep prospect that had interest in the top five rounds or so. Spurning those offers, he became one of the better recruits to reach campus at Notre Dame in recent years, where he jumped into the starting lineup immediately as the starting second baseman and held that role until sliding in as the starting shortstop in 2025. While Moreno hasn't put up particularly loud numbers in South Bend – he's a career .236/.334/.484 hitter, albeit with 30 home runs in 153 games – he brings plenty of upside on both sides of the ball relative to his draft position in the final round. He generates plenty of torque in his right handed swing, with an explosive barrel that makes the ball really jump when he squares it up. Noted for his polish as a Chicago-area prep, his approach has stagnated somewhat in college with career strikeout and walk rates of 30.1% and 8.1%, respectively, with his 7.6% walk rate in 2025 representing a career-low. It's probably average power with a below average hit tool. Still, Moreno is a talented hitter that moves well in the box, and if he can work with Seattle's player development to rekindle a better approach at the plate, he has what it takes to become a productive hitter. Interestingly, he has gotten more mobile while in college and his move to shortstop for 2025 might have been a surprise in 2022, but his arm and mobility have worked there for now. Even if he has to slide back to third base, his defensive outlook is stronger than it was and it buys a little bit of time for his bat to develop. Moreno is known as a baseball rat with a strong work ethic and in the twentieth round where most players don't get above A ball, it's a nice roll of the dice.

Thursday, November 27, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Colorado Rockies

Full list of draftees

The Rockies played their bonus pool fairly straight up this year, handing fourth overall pick Ethan Holliday the largest bonus of any player in the 2025 draft then rarely deviating by more than $100,000 or so away from the slot value of any given pick. In an era where players transfer schools at will and a mid-major school in the Midwest might have a roster full of players from California, Florida, New England, and everywhere in between, it seems many of Colorado's picks were players who not only stayed local for school, but stuck around for their whole career without transferring. That's a rarity these days, and it keeps with Colorado's old school philosophy of targeting high makeup players to create a strong clubhouse. Many of the players in this class have been described as just that by scouts – high makeup, team-first guys. Of course, that hasn't translated to *any* on-field success whatsoever, but as the saying goes, nice guys finish last in the NL West. This year's crop is a college-heavy class that features just one player under 21 years old, that being our class-headlining first rounder, instead banking more on safety to fill out a big league roster that badly needs help quickly.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-4: SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Slot value: $8.77 million. Signing bonus: $9 million ($229,100 above slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #1. Baseball America: #1.
It was one of the worst-kept secrets in baseball that the Rockies were enamored with Ethan Holliday, and as it turned out they got their guy. All it took was the largest signing bonus of any player taken in the 2025 draft, the largest signing bonus ever given to a high school player (beating his brother's record of $8.19 million in 2022), and tied for the fourth highest of all time. The son of seven time All Star Matt Holliday, Ethan's older brother Jackson was the first overall pick after a massive spring at Stillwater High School in 2022 and now plays for the Orioles. While Jackson entered his senior season more of a second round prospect, Ethan has been arguably the most famous name in the 2025 prep class since all the way back to his freshman season, when he was teammates with his brother. He has maintained that status as the odds-on favorite to go first overall throughout his time at Stillwater High School (also the alma mater of Rockies 2017 second rounder Ryan Vilade). With a huge target on his back, Holliday had an uneven summer on the showcase circuit in 2024 that dented his draft stock just slightly, causing him to fall out of the top five prospects on some boards in the fall and over the winter. However, he came back with a vengeance in the spring to torment Oklahoma high school pitching, batting .611 with 19 home runs as he looked like a man among boys on the field. Much more physical than his brother was at this stage, Holliday has at least plus raw power that he has tapped and tapped again in games for years, stemming from a quick, forceful left handed swing geared for lofting the ball with authority. Standing 6'4", he's already very strong and still has plenty of room to get stronger, giving him a shot to put up 40-homer seasons in Coors Field. There are more questions about the hit tool, as (admittedly elite) showcase pitchers found holes in his swing last summer and caused him to get out of his approach. He is a relatively disciplined hitter that has seen and handled plenty of top flight pitching, so the primary concern lies with his ability to handle quality stuff in the zone. It's not a major concern, or else he would not have been drafted nearly this high, but the microscope is powerful in the top five picks. Family connections to successful ballplayers have proven to be real advantages in recent years and Holliday of course has no shortage of that, so any in-zone swing and miss issues he's currently facing are likely to be taken care of in short order, even if there is a bit of a learning curve in pro ball. Defensively, he shows good actions at shortstop with natural instincts to make all the plays that come to him, though his size will likely push him to third base in time. He's not explosive on the defensive side and does show a strong arm, but with average speed at this point, he does have an outside shot to work hard and stick at that most important position. At peak, Holliday could hit 40 home runs with average on-base percentages in that Coors environment, a lineup cornerstone for the Rockies.

2-45: RHP JB Middleton, Southern Miss
Slot value: $2.17 million. Signing bonus: $2.07 million ($100,000 below slot value).
My rank: #40. MLB Pipeline: #41. Baseball America: #58.
While Coors Field is the toughest place to be a pitcher, making free agent deals a tough sell and the draft ever more important, the Rockies have actually done a pretty solid job of developing young pitching lately. First up is JB Middleton, a breakout star from down south. Middleton barely pitched as a freshman at Southern Miss and served as a reliever as a sophomore, but took a massive step forward in 2025 as he went 10-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a sharp 122/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings, garnering first team All-American honors from some outlets including Perfect Game and NCBWA. His fastball has now crept up to a comfortable low to mid 90's, reaching 97 at peak with running action. His best pitch is a hard, tight slider in the upper 80's that can function like more of a cutter at times, getting tons of swings and misses and providing the key to his success in 2025. There is also a firm changeup with some fade, looking like an average pitch for now with a chance for better as he gains more feel. The 6' righty is not the biggest guy on the field with a slender frame that currently carries 180 pounds and doesn't appear to have tons of room for more, but he regularly pitched into the late innings in Hattiesburg including going at least seven innings in nine of his sixteen starts and four outings of eight innings or more. At season's end, his 105.1 innings were tied for the fourth most in Division I, so whatever questions there are about Middleton's durability, he has done everything he can to answer them. At this point, his control is ahead of his command, as his impressive 6% walk rate showcased a pitcher not afraid to attack the zone. The Mississippi native has a chance for three above average or better pitches that he pours into the strike zone, with the next step being to fine tune that command inside the strike zone and perhaps bring the changeup a little further along. Otherwise, if he continues to chew up innings and hold his stuff late into the game, he could be a #3 starter at the big league level.

CBB-74: OF Max Belyeu, Texas
Slot value: $1.11 million. Signing bonus: $1.11 million.
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #33.
I felt throughout the draft process that Max Belyeu was a bit overvalued, and based on where he was ranked by major publications versus his draft position and signing bonus, it appears MLB organizations felt the same way. That said, it's a nice get here in the CBB round. Back in high school, Belyeu rode a big senior season to significant top five rounds interest, but held firm on his commitment to Texas and blossomed into one of the Longhorns' best bats, hitting .318/.414/.616 with 27 home runs in 106 games over his three year career. While his 2024 sophomore season was his biggest and netted him Big 12 Player of the Year honors, 2025 was a bit more challenging as he missed significant time during conference play with a thumb injury. Belyeu brings a strong presence to the box, combining a projectable 6'2" frame with plenty of present strength to give him above average power for now and a chance for plus down the line. He takes big hacks from the left side to tap that power, and so far he has against strong college competition. I think the hit tool is where major publications and the league diverged in opinion. Belyeu tends to get very streaky at the plate and he struck out in a third of his plate appearances in the Cape Cod League last summer. This spring, pitchers gave him much less to hit and he chased more as a result of that, this time striking out in a quarter of his at bats. When he's going right, he looks like a future lineup anchor. He turned a ton of heads at the Shriners Children's College Showdown on opening weekend, going 8-14 with two home runs and two doubles against Louisville, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma State and actually began the season on an eleven game hitting streak in which he hit .468. Then there are the cold stretches, like later in the year when he went 3-27 with 14 strikeouts in his first six games back from injury. The North Texas native will likely always be streaky has some risk of falling into a platoon role where he can see mostly right handed pitching. Given the power and the long track record of getting hot and finding his stroke even against top competition, the Rockies likely see more than that, a hitter that can club 20+ home runs per season and maintain reasonable on-base percentages. The speed is average and the glovework is fringy, and with his body type he may slow down as he continues to tack on strength. That makes a corner outfield spot the most likely destination, though his plus arm could make him a decent right fielder.

3-77: 3B Ethan Hedges, Southern California
Slot value: $1.06 million. Signing bonus: $950,000 ($110,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #159. Baseball America: #125.
I don't think anyone expected Max Belyeu, who had projections as high as the first comp rounds, and Ethan Hedges, who figured to go closer to the middle of day two, to come off the board just a couple picks apart. The Rockies are big believers in the sum of the parts here, with Hedges coming off a huge, breakout junior season at USC where he hit .346/.462/.619 with 14 home runs and was named to the All-Big Ten First Team. There is not one standout tool here, but he does a little bit of everything. He gets on plane early and gets his eyes behind the baseball, driving out and through the baseball to make consistent hard contact. The power has improved to fringe average after he hit just four home runs over his first two seasons, and at Coors Field he could wind up with 15-20 home runs per season at best if he can continue to turn on the ball consistently. It's also an average overall hit tool in that he makes good consistent hard contact, uses the whole field, and draws his walks, but can be prone to chasing and whiffing at times. He's great on the other side of the ball, with slick glovework that handles hot shots at third base reliably. Hedges served as USC's closer in 2025 and saved nine games with a 2.40 ERA while running his fastball up to 96, and while he'll be a hitter-only in pro ball, that arm strength comes in clutch at third base where the arm grades out as plus. If he can hit enough to stay on the field, he could contend for Gold Gloves at third base. That will be the key, and the Rockies love positive trajectory elevating a solid all-around game.

4-107: RHP Riley Kelly, UC Irvine
Slot value: $715,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($15,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #139. Baseball America: #139.
Sticking in Southern California, the Rockies bring in their second arm of the class and a very large human in Riley Kelly. The starting quarterback at Tustin High School, he wowed scouts with a huge senior season in 2022 and pushed himself into top five rounds consideration, but ultimately honored his commitment to UC Irvine as one of their biggest recruits ever to reach campus. He didn't get on the mound as much as he would have liked over his first two seasons as he battled command issues and a back injury, but took a big step forward in 2025 as he pitched his way into the Anteaters' rotation and ran with it, at one point allowing just two runs in a five start stretch (25.1 innings, 0.71 ERA). His fastball has crept up and now sits in the low 90's, touching 96 at peak with moderate life. His best pitch is a big, hammer curveball with huge spin rates and deep finish that has missed bats in bunches dating back to his prep days, while his changeup has been a positive development in Irvine and now projects as average if a bit firm. Kelly has upped the tempo in his delivery in college but still shows very streaky command, often appearing average on one day and well below average the next. It has made moderate progress lately and if it continues to trend in that direction, he could fit in the back of a big league rotation. He's just now finishing up filling out his big 6'5" frame, now pushing 240 pounds, and the Rockies will use that size to unlock a little more power in his arsenal. If the back problems are behind him, he otherwise looks durable enough to hold down a starting role, but that is something to monitor. There is nice upside here for a guy who seems to be unlocking the best version of himself.

5-138: OF Cam Nelson, Wake Forest
Slot value: $529,100. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($70,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This one is a bit out of left field. While he comes from a power program, Cam Nelson has not seen much time on the field and did not appear on any major public draft boards, but the Rockies are massive believers in the raw talent and have him a slight over slot bonus here in the fifth round. Nelson came off the bench as a freshman in 2024, often as a defensive replacement, but slugged a paltry .202 with just thirteen singles and four doubles in more than one hundred at bats. He served in a similar role in 2025 but the bat took a step forward offensively, hitting .318/.489/.485 in limited playing time. Undersized at 5'11", Nelson immediately stands out for an excellent approach at the plate, running an absurd 22% walk rate that becomes all the more impressive when you consider he was a light hitting bench bat whom opposing pitchers likely weren't terribly concerned about pitching around. He employs a slasher approach at the plate, gashing line drives around the field consistently because he forces pitchers to give him something to hit and will foul balls off until he gets one he likes, but the Rockies see more power in the tank as he gets more consistent reps and learns to elevate the ball. The Baltimore native is also a good runner who plays a solid center field, while his days as a pitcher give him a plus arm to boot. Colorado sees an undervalued development project here in the left handed hitting outfielder that could blossom into a high on-base leadoff type with strong defense down the line. A more median projection would have him as a glove-first, hit-over-power fourth outfielder who could play all three positions well.

6-167: C Matt Klein, Louisville
Slot value: $400,400. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($24,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #224. Baseball America: #235.
Louisville catchers have an excellent track record lately, from Will Smith to Henry Davis to Dalton Rushing, and Matt Klein hopes to be the next. Klein, like other players in this class such as Ethan Hedges, lacks a standout tool, but by virtue of being a catcher, any surprise production would be a big bonus. Injuries have limited him a bit at Louisville and he only played 33 games in 2025 after getting hit by a pitch, but he produced when he was in the lineup and his under the hood numbers were even better. Klein uses a simple left handed swing to focus on line drives, which combined with a professional plate approach helps him keep the strikeouts way down (just 11.0% in 2025) while drawing his walks (13.1%) and getting on base (.431 OBP). That approach played against elite pitching in the Cape Cod League last summer as well, where he hit .375/.397/.417 with just an 11.4% strikeout rate in 25 games. While few doubt that he can hit pro pitching, turning that contact into impact will be the next step in his development. Klein isn't one to turn on the ball and try to hit it over the fence, causing his average raw power to play down in games. Unless Colorado can get him lifting the ball more consistently, which may come at the expense of his hit tool, he likely will always project for below average home run totals and may top out around 10-15 a year. However, given his approach and bat to ball, he may be able to trade some of that for some increased launch angle and be just alright, which would go a long way as a catcher. While the Louisville native isn't quite a Gold Glover back there, he gets the job done with average all-around glovework and arm strength and works well with pitchers. He projects as a backup catcher with a chance for more if he can unlock some of that power.

7-197: LHP Antoine Jean, Houston
Slot value: $311,900. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($111,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #196. Baseball America: #458.
Antoine Jean is a really interesting pick that may take a pretty unique path to the big leagues. A native of Montreal, he began his career at Alabama way back in 2020, where injuries limited him at times but he had success in the rotation when he was on the mound. After missing the 2023 season with Tommy John surgery, he transferred to Houston to pitch his fifth year on campus in 2024 and set career highs in starts and innings, albeit with a career-worst 5.97 ERA. When he returned to Houston for a sixth year of college baseball in 2025 for his age-23 season, something clicked. The power ticked up across his arsenal and he blossomed into one of the best relievers in college baseball, taking home Big 12 Pitcher of the Year honors as he led all college relievers with 110 strikeouts. The fastball now sits low 90's and touches 96, not overwhelming velocity from a reliever but enough to play up with run and ride. He throws a pair of fall-off-the-table breaking balls in his curveball and slider, both of which dive late away from hitters, while his changeup is a fourth pitch but still one that will be usable in pro ball. His command is average, but he mixes and matches his offerings very effectively as a former soft tossing crafty lefty that now has average power across his arsenal. He can manipulate the shapes of his fastball and breaking balls, giving him a much, much deeper arsenal than the typical reliever. The 6'2" lefty is a bit slight of stature and may not get much bigger, but he has a history of starting and completed four or more innings on ten occasions in 2025, all in relief, and his arsenal is more than deep enough to start. Colorado will likely send Jean back into the rotation to start his career, where he could work his way up as a back-end starter. He turned 24 in August, making him one of the oldest players in this year's draft and already older than a quarter of the Rockies' 40 man roster (including Chase Dollander, Adael Amador, and Angel Chivilli while sharing an exact birth date with Ezequiel Tovar). That doesn't give him much time if he wants ascend the levels as a starter, though as a reliever he could be ready as soon as 2026.

8-227: 1B Tanner Thach, UNC Wilmington
Slot value: $247,200. Signing bonus: $325,000 ($77,800 above slot value).
My rank: #156. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #134.
Tanner Thach brings Colorado some of the best power in its 2025 class here in the eighth round, which is always fun to see at Coors Field. Thach reached UNC Wilmington's campus as a two-way player but quickly established himself as a primary hitter, setting the Seahawks' freshman record by hitting fifteen home runs in 2023. He exploded for 27 in 2024, this time breaking the school's single season record in general and good for #11 in the nation that year. While he couldn't quite match the power output in 2025, he still finished as the school's all time home run leader with 54 over three seasons. Listed at 6'4", 225 pounds, he shows plus raw power that he taps every bit of in games with a natural tendency to elevate the ball to the pull side, having done so consistently way back to his prep days at Perquimans County High School in eastern North Carolina. He also shows above average bat to ball ability that helped him cut his strikeout rate under 15% in 2025, and as a career .271/.359/.495 hitter over 55 games and two seasons in the Cape Cod League, he has proven he can handle high level pitching. At this point, the one drawback in the offensive profile is his proclivity to chase, as he has feasted on CAA pitching by consistently expanding the zone and letting his natural bat to ball do the work. At the next level, pro pitchers are likely to take advantage of that aggressive approach and feed him a steady diet of offspeed stuff, and if he doesn't adjust there is risk that he becomes a platoon bat that sits against left handed pitchers. Thach is also a well below average runner that will be limited to first base only, which puts a lot of pressure on the bat. Colorado is buying his track record not only in the CAA but on the Cape, which to them indicates that he will be just fine against pro pitching and could bring a Michael Toglia-like profile to Coors Field.

19-557: RHP Easton Marks, Florida International
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The only Rocky Mountain product in this Rockies class is Easton Marks. A Denver native, he attended Arapahoe High School in nearby Centennial just to the south and began his career at Nevada, where he worked his way into the rotation as a sophomore but struggled in the hitter-friendly environment. Transferring nearly 2500 miles across the country to FIU, he found far greater success with the Panthers and became the school's first pitcher since 2019 to be named first team all C-USA. While he initially committed to transfer a second time to Miami in 2026, he'll head back home instead to begin his pro career. He has always thrown hard, now sitting in the low to mid 90's and grabbing 97 at peak. He can turn that over into a tight cutter with late movement, while he has tightened up his curveball with late bite down in the zone. Marks also throws a changeup with late fade to the arm side, giving him a really nice arsenal for the nineteenth round. The 6'1" righty struggled with command back at Nevada but dropped his walk rate from an ugly 17.6% as a sophomore in Reno to a more reasonable 11.7% as a junior in Miami. It's still below average command, but much more playable and the results speak for themselves. If he can continue to tighten that up, his four pitch mix can play in a big league rotation and the Rockies will have great value from the late rounds. He will probably need to jump another full grade in that regard, so a bullpen career is certainly a possibility.

Saturday, November 22, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals

Full list of draftees

This was an atypical draft for the Cardinals, especially on the pitching side. While St. Louis usually favors pitchability types who can mix and match hitters into falling off balance, this year it was all about power, power, power. The first two pitchers they picked both reach triple digits with their explosive fastballs, while the next three are up into the upper 90's themselves. Interestingly, the trade off is quality breaking balls, which are a bit lacking compared to the sizable pitching investment early in this draft. While they didn't take a lot of hitters early on, those they did take show advanced bats that should take to pro pitching relatively smoothly. Overall, the Cardinals brought in a lot of new talent with more draft capital than they typically have, picking in the top five for the first time since they drafted J.D. Drew out of Florida State in 1998 and also adding an extra CBB pick at #72.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-5: LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
Slot value: $8.13 million. Signing bonus: $7.25 million ($884,800 below slot value).
My rank: #8. MLB Pipeline: #8. Baseball America: #8.
St. Louis has a brand when it comes to college pitching, and that would be advanced, deceptive, command and control types like Brian Holiday, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe, Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, Michael McGreevy, the list goes on and on. In 2025, they completely flipped the script and grabbed arguably the most electric arm in the country. A native of New Hampshire, he traveled all the way south to Coastal Carolina for his freshman season and immediately played a big role as a swingman. Transferring to Ole Miss for his sophomore season, his 6.35 ERA was not indicative of a pretty strong season under the hood, pushing him higher on draft boards. In 2025, Doyle chose to pack up and transfer once again, this time to Tennessee alongside fellow double transfer and Brewers first rounder Andrew Fischer. In Knoxville, Doyle's stuff leapt forward and he left evaluators with their jaws on the floor as he struck out eleven of the fifteen Hofstra Pride batters he faced in his first outing. Following fourteen, nine, and thirteen strikeouts against Samford, Oklahoma State, and St. Bonaventure, respectively, he brought a 0.44 ERA, a 0.54 WHIP, and a 47/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings through four starts, making for a ridiculous 69.1% strikeout rate (47 of 68 batters). The electric start to the season rocketed him straight into the top ten prospects of the draft, and while his results evened out a bit in SEC play, he still had loud many more loud outings and his 164 strikeouts finished second in all of NCAA Division I. Doyle's fastball is, bar none, the most electric in the country. A big bump in velocity has him sitting in the mid 90's and scraping triple digits at peak, but it plays well above its plus velocity with huge riding life that makes it look like a rocket ship out of his hand. You could argue that it's a true 80 grade fastball. His slider has improved as well and now looks like an above average bender, while his hard cutter splits the difference. Doyle has been working on his changeup and it has shown flashes, with some dropping above average grades on it on its best days. The 6'2" lefty is not the traditional tall, gangly horse you typically see at the top of the draft, with a stockier build and a high effort delivery that would typically look like it belongs more in the bullpen. Still, Doyle holds his velocity deep into starts with incredible arm strength and while his arm plunge and effort create some inconsistencies in his command, he ran a very reasonable 8.3% walk rate in 2025 (alongside an absurd 42.6% strikeout rate). The Cardinals like that Doyle's entire arsenal has taken a step forward, not just his fastball, and see him as a potential four pitch ace. Critics will point to his fastball being his only true plus pitch and the fact that he had times keeping better SEC hitters off balance as he trusted that fastball much more than his secondaries. St. Louis will want to continue to bring those secondary pitches along to make him a more complete pitcher. Doyle is a fierce competitor that often rubbed opponents the wrong way, earning a reputation around the SEC as a guy you love if he's on your team and hate if he's in the other dugout. The high energy, passionate style of play as well as the explosive fastball would fit very well in a bullpen role if he was forced into it, with the upside of a lights out closer.

2-55: OF Ryan Mitchell, Houston HS [TN]
Slot value: $1.72 million. Signing bonus: $2.25 million ($529,700 above slot value).
My rank: #56. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #48.
With some of their savings on first rounder Liam Doyle, the Cardinals turned to a semi-local product in Ryan Mitchell, who signed for just over the value of the #44 pick rather than follow through on a Georgia Tech commitment. Mitchell grew up in the shadows of AutoZone Park, home of the Cardinals' AAA affiliate Memphis Redbirds, and attended Houston High School in the western suburb of Germantown. There he road a strong spring to significant interest as high as the back of the first round, then ultimately settled here in the second round albeit for an above slot bonus. Mitchell starts his left handed swing with a high handset and a bit of bat wrap, but whips his hands hard through the zone with an accurate, line-drive oriented stroke that has produced great results as a prep. His very strong approach and above average bat to ball ability give him a chance to be an on-base machine in St. Louis, and one who could get there a bit quicker than most prep bats given how advanced that bat is. Mitchell is hit over power, but there is some thump in his 6'2" frame and he stings the ball well. His average raw power plays down a touch in games because of his linear swing, making fringe-average power the more likely outcome, but he could threaten for 15 home runs per season at peak or perhaps 15-20 if he adds a little loft. He is an above average runner that was primarily a shortstop in high school, where his glove received mixed reviews with some seeing light feet and solid glovework and others seeing a relatively raw defensive product overall. The arm might be a bit stretched at shortstop anyways, so for me I saw him as more of a second base prospect. The Cardinals appear to be more bearish on the infield defense and drafted him as an outfielder, where his speed could help him slot nicely into center field. Overall, Mitchell is a very well-rounded profile with a standout hit tool to carry him up the ladder.

CBB-72: RHP Tanner Franklin, Tennessee
Slot value: $1.15 million. Signing bonus: $1.15 million.
My rank: #140. MLB Pipeline: #124. Baseball America: #122.
One fireballing Tennessee Volunteer was not enough, so St. Louis went back to Knoxville and found a second here in the competitive balance round. Tanner Franklin pitched two seasons at Kennesaw State where he showcased a fastball just as electric as his command was shaky, running an ugly 20.6% walk rate (40 walks) across 38.1 innings. Transferring to Tennessee for his junior year, he spent the season in the bullpen and focused on attacking the middle of the strike zone, slashing his walk rate all the way to an excellent 5.5%. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has topped 101, just chewing up bats with riding life and flat plane from a low slot. If Liam Doyle's fastball looks like a rocket ship, Franklin's looks like it accelerates towards the plate and zips past the hitter before he can blink. Like Doyle, his fastball steals the show while his secondaries take more of a back seat. He can cut his fastball around 90, or he can turn it over into a truer slider in the mid 80's, but both pitches are fringy and lack the bat missing bite to induce whiffs in the big leagues. Additionally, Franklin's dramatically lower walk rate in 2025 came because he attacked the zone much more aggressively, not because he suddenly learned how to paint the corners. While 100 down the middle will zip by bats in college, even in the SEC, he won't be as consistently successful in pro ball unless he can locate a little better, especially considering the lack of an offspeed weapon to keep hitters off the fastball. That said, the arm talent is electric and the fastball is approaching 80 grade when he locates it up in the zone. The 6'5" righty has pitched almost exclusively in relief during his three years in college, and while that's likely to be his role going forward as well, it's not out of the question that St. Louis could run him out as a starter for a little while to see what happens. He certainly looks durable enough to pull it off, though of course he'll need to find a more consistent breaking ball and develop a changeup. The most likely projection is that of a flame throwing reliever who gets just enough out of his secondary stuff to keep hitters off his elite fastball.

3-89: 1B Jack Gurevitch, San Diego
Slot value: $879,000. Signing bonus: $879,000.
My rank: #141. MLB Pipeline: #144. Baseball America: #90.
The Cardinals believe they found one of the best sticks on the West Coast in Jack Gurevitch, a name other teams may have passed over as a mid major first baseman. Gurevitch has played three years at San Diego, alma mater of Kris Bryant, where he evolved from somewhat of a light hitting freshman (.265/.387/.457, 6 HR) to a middle of the order sophomore (.324/.444/.507, 9 HR) to a first team all-WCC selection as a junior (.371/.479/.677, 17 HR) to land himself here in the third round. He has really filled out his 6' frame and now shows easy plus power in batting practice, power he has begun tapping much more in games as he has become adept at pulling the ball in the air. You could argue that it was the most usable game power in the state of California available in this year's draft. Meanwhile, the Southern California native shows a solid average hit tool, running reasonable strikeout rates while taking his walks and adjusting late in counts to find a way on base. There is a fair amount of swing and miss when he tries to turn on the ball, though he showed very well last summer in the elite Cape Cod League (.278/.375/.411) when he focused more on getting on base. The upside here is that of a 20-25 home run hitter with reasonable on-base percentages, though probably more likely in a platoon or bench role. Gurevitch is limited to first base defensively and will therefore have a ton of pressure on his bat, though swinging left handed does help. He could move relatively quickly if he manages to stay un-blocked at his only position.

4-120: LHP Cade Crossland, Oklahoma
Slot value: $629,500. Signing bonus: $729,500 ($100,000 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #207. Baseball America: #173.
Cade Crossland brings the Cardinals yet another power arm, though he has a bit more of a balanced profile than the two arms above him. He began his career at Ouachita Baptist in Southwest Arkansas, but struggled to a 7.30 ERA as he walked 16.6% of his opponents. Transferring to Weatherford JC closer to home, he took a huge step forward and dropped his ERA to 2.37, but still ran an ugly 14.2% walk rate. Oklahoma liked his big stuff and brought him up north to Norman, where his ERA jumped back up to 6.02 but his walk rate continued to creep down to a more respectable 10.6%. Crossland works with a fastball that can creep into the upper 90's, but usually sits more in the low 90's with run and ride. He gets nice depth on his sweeping slider, but it lacks bite and can break early at times, giving hitters a good look at it and failing to miss a ton of bats. The true weapon here is his changeup. It's a plus-plus cambio that looks like a fastball for 55 feet before falling off the table at the last second, diving hard down and to the arm side. He can throw it in any count, double up on it, whatever he needs to get outs. With the gains he has made in his command moving from well below average to simply fringy, Crossland has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if he can bring the breaking ball along. The 6'2" lefty has been durable in his three years in college and doesn't throw with a ton of effort, helping aid those starter projections. If the breaking ball remains fringy, he may be forced into a fastball/changeup relief role where the heater could more comfortably sit mid 90's and approach triple digits at peak.

5-150: RHP Ethan Young, East Carolina
Slot value: $470,100. Signing bonus: $630,000 ($159,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #355.
Following Cade Crossland's over-slot bonus in the fourth round, Ethan Young signed for roughly the slot value of Crossland's #120 pick here in the fifth round. Young has followed a very similar career path to Crossland as well. He began his career at Hillsborough JC in Florida where command kept him from having much of an impact, but transferred to Catawba Valley JC closer to home in North Carolina for his sophomore year where he became a shutdown closer. Transferring again to ECU for his junior year, he worked as a long reliever for the Pirates and was largely successful, highlighted by gems against William & Mary (4.1 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K) and Wichita State (5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K). Young, like the arms before him in this Cardinals draft class, has a power fastball that sits mid 90's in short stints and has grabbed as high as 99 on the gun. The pitch comes in with hard run and sink, making it difficult to square up especially in this day and age where pitchers are favoring the flat riding fastball. He complements the fastball with a power sweeper in the mid to upper 80's, missing plenty of bats with its late life and making for a very difficult at bat. His curveball and changeup round out the arsenal but neither are true weapons at this point. Consistency has been the main bugaboo for the Charlotte-area product, as he can look downright dominant on his best days but has others where he struggles to find the strike zone. Combine that command with what is primarily a two-pitch arsenal and you have significant reliever risk. However, the Cardinals made a significant investment in Young with the belief that his athleticism, simple delivery, and two potential plus pitches could lay the groundwork for a long term rotation career if he just gets incremental steps forward in the other parts of his game. He's plenty filled out at 6'2", 220 pounds and certainly looks the part of a big league starter if he gets to that point. If not, a power fastball/slider combination is always good to have in relief and Young's combo is better than most.

7-210: RHP Payton Graham, Gonzaga
Slot value: $280,800. Signing bonus: $280,800.
My rank: #173. MLB Pipeline: #211. Baseball America: #254.
Not to be confused with Tigers prospect and former Oklahoma star Peyton Graham, Payton Graham has a chance to really outplay his draft position if he can get healthy, as he doesn't have much to go on in terms of track record. Over his first two years at Gonzaga, he went just 1-8 with an abysmal 10.14 ERA and perhaps an equally ugly 2.14 WHIP. However, he came out in fall practice in 2024 looking like a transformed pitcher, then had scouts buzzing by dominating UC Davis (5 IP, 0 ER, 7 K) in his spring debut in 2025. Unfortunately, that was all the scouts got to see as he hurt his elbow and went down with Tommy John surgery, wiping out his 2025 season and likely limiting him into next spring as well. At his best, Graham throws a low to mid 90's fastball that reached 98 in the fall, coming in with great riding life as well. His two-plane slider and truer curveball have taken steps forward and give him a pair of swing and miss breaking balls, both flashing plus at their best but neither proving consistent enough yet to earn that grade overall. He adds a changeup, but presently his feel for spin stands out much more than his feel for the changeup. Graham has some effort in his delivery with a long arm circle and other exaggerated actions, making for fringy command that probably won't be helped by the surgery recovery at least in the short run. However, St. Louis believes in the stuff and can see him picking up right where he left off when he gets back on the mound in 2026, bringing that four pitch mix and sturdy 6'2" frame toward a big league rotation future. He'll need to bring his changeup along and shore up the command, but based on what he showed when he was healthy, he probably had the most complete starting pitching profile in this Cardinals class outside first rounder Liam Doyle. Graham had been getting second round looks when healthy and the Cardinals hope to get him back to that level again.

11-330: SS Jalin Flores, Texas
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($25,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #235. Baseball America: #255.
Jalin Flores is well known to Central Texas area scouts. He was a highly touted prep prospect in the San Antonio suburbs, earning top three rounds interest before pricing himself out so he could attend Texas. He struggled as a freshman, but turned around a huge draft-eligible sophomore campaign in which he slashed .340/.408/.656 with 18 home runs in 60 games and pushed himself back into that third to fourth round conversation. However, concerns about his approach at the plate suppressed his market a bit, and again he priced himself out of the draft to head back to Austin. He started off hot in 2025 and was hitting .318 into late March, but slumped in the second half of the season and wound up at just .239/.317/.491 with 13 home runs in 58 games. Flores has a big league body 6'2", 210 pounds with long arms and legs built to do damage. He takes big hacks in the box to produce above average raw power, showing the ability to put the ball out to all fields when he's on time and projecting to continue to hit for power with wood bats. He has very solid bat to ball as well when he picks the pitch up out of the hand, but his bugaboo has been a combination of poor pitch recognition and a high proclivity to chase out of the strike zone. SEC pitchers have begun to adjust to that and have gotten Flores out in front of the ball more often than he'd like, and after many years on the prospect radar and his 22nd birthday passing shortly after the draft, there are real questions whether he'll ever get that approach to a place it needs to be. Fortunately, his power, bat to ball, and defense buy that approach time to catch up. While he's not much of a runner, he nonetheless plays a very solid shortstop with a plus arm to make throws in the hole and on the run. A springier defender, such as fellow Texan Masyn Winn up at the big league level, could force him over to third base, but either way Flores should stick on the left side of the infield and provide value there. The upside is that of a 15-20 homer bat that may lack in the on-base percentage department but plays good defense on the dirt to hold down a platoon spot.

14-420: RHP Anthony Watts, Iowa
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
St. Louis stayed relatively close to home in the fourteenth round, grabbing Anthony Watts out of Iowa. After graduating from Waukee Northwest High School in the western Des Moines suburbs, Watts began his career at Creighton where he took on a substantial role as a freshman. Transferring back into his homes state to play for the Hawkeyes, he spent two seasons as a reliever with strong results. Watts throws a low 90's fastball that plays up with riding action from a release that brings plenty of extension, putting some extra hop on the pitch. He has a sharp slider in the mid 80's, then has a fairly firm upper 80's changeup that he uses less often. The 6'4" righty has a durable, projectable frame that figures to keep him healthy and help him add a bit more velocity, which will play up due to his release characteristics. The command is fringy but workable, and between the fastball and slider he has two big league pitches to help him navigate lineups in the pro, hopefully working his way up as a middle reliever.

20-600: C Chase Heath, Central Missouri
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $5,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
At first glance, a $5K senior sign in the final round might look like a pick destined to wind up an org depth glove-first glorified bullpen catcher, but Chase Heath has a real shot to outplay that projection. Not only that, but he gets to do it for his hometown team. Heath grew up in O'Fallon, an outer suburb about thirty miles northwest of St. Louis, and attended nearby Veritas Christian High School. He spent four years at Central Missouri, where he was a backup catcher for the first two seasons before taking on a larger role in 2024 and 2025, combining to slash .373/.452/.705 with 25 home runs in 92 games over those final two seasons. He then impressed in the MLB Draft League before the 2025 draft, where he slashed .310/.423/.500 with a pair of home runs and nearly as many walks (6) as strikeouts (7) in fourteen games. Listed at 5'10", 200 pounds, Heath is built like and plays like a traditional catcher. He has received consistent praise for his glove, earning an array of defense-related honors during his time in Warrensburg as a seasoned receiver who will no doubt be a boon for young pitchers in the St. Louis organization looking to hone their craft. While defense and pitching development is the primary role for a player with this profile and draft position, Heath has a sneaky bat as well. He struck out just 27 times over his final two seasons in Warrensburg, good for a minuscule 7.1% strikeout rate, owing to an excellent approach that played up during his time in the MLB Draft League. Heath works counts and forces pitchers to come into his wheelhouse, where his strong pitch recognition and hand-eye coordination gives him a good chance to make the jump and hit pro pitching. While he hit 25 home runs over those past two seasons, he typically keeps things simple with a line drive approach and now in pro ball, that power will probably mostly play on ambush swings lifting the ball to the pull side. It's likely a glove-first backup catcher projection but he is already off to a strong start to his pro career.

Monday, November 17, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

Pittsburgh planned to play this draft fairly straight up, going a bit under slot in the first round, a bit over in the second, then roughly matching the slot values for the rest of the draft. A wrench was thrown in those plans when second rounder Angel Cervantes turned them down and announced he would follow through on his UCLA commitment, but the Pirates were prepared. Having drafted four high schoolers in rounds 14-20, they re-allocated that extra bonus pool overage money (they did lose $2 million slot value) to give fifth round money to two long term projection plays in McLane Moody and Carter Gwost. Meanwhile, the highlight of this class is still first rounder Seth Hernandez, one of the best high school pitching prospects in recent memory and a potential future co-ace with Paul Skenes down the line. Overall, there are quite a few very interesting profiles in this class and with Pittsburgh's recent development successes, it should be a fun class to follow.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-6: RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Slot value: $7.56 million. Signing bonus: $7.25 million ($308,600 below slot value).
My rank: #1. MLB Pipeline: #3. Baseball America: #2.
I don't think the Pirates could have started off their draft any better than this. While high school right handed pitchers are very risky at the top of the draft, Seth Hernandez is one of the best I have ever seen, arguably the best player in this entire draft class, and came at over a $300,000 discount despite being drafted outside the top five. Hernandez is an extraordinary young arm. His fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90's, regularly topping out in the upper 90's in starts and already touching triple digits. The life on the pitch is average, but at that velocity, it doesn't matter much. Paul Skenes had average life on his 102 MPH heater. His best secondary is a plus-plus changeup with tremendous parachuting action, diving late away from hitters and sending them flailing as they gear up for triple digits. In my book, it may be his best pitch overall. Heading into the season, my primary concern with Hernandez was his feel for spin, but both his breaking balls took a step forward this spring and now profile as above average pitches. The truer curveball is probably the better breaking ball and took the bigger step forward, but his tighter slider gives him a fourth serious weapon. For my money, it is the best four pitch mix in the class at any level. But that's not all with Hernandez – his smooth, athletic delivery enables him to fill up the strike zone with above average command. The Southern California product is a two-way player that has shown very well on the other side of the ball, so while he will certainly be a pitcher-only going forward, it does speak to his athleticism and that is evident on the mound in the way he extends towards the plate with minimal effort. At 6'4", 190 pounds, he has the ideal pitcher's frame and should add significant weight in the coming years, making for the upside of a true ace. To top it all off, the Pirates develop these types of young, ultra athletic projection plays very well, making this a match made in heaven. High school righties always carry risk but Hernandez could form a one-two punch with Skenes in the coming years that will rival any rotation in the league.

2-50: RHP Angel Cervantes, Warren HS [CA]
Slot value: $1.93 million. Signing bonus: did not sign.
My rank: #39. MLB Pipeline: #49. Baseball America: #51.
Sticking in the Southern California high school ranks, the Pirates moved it over just about 32 miles from Corona High School to Warren High School to grab Angel Cervantes. However, they were unable to come to a deal and Cervantes will join the UCLA Bruins while the Pirates will not be able to repurpose the nearly-$2 million in bonus pool space. While he's not as athletic as Seth Hernandez, he matches him in pitchability and the stuff is nothing to sneeze at other. Cervantes' fastball sits in the low 90's and reached as high as 97 this spring, with running action and the ability to sink it when he needs to. He shows a nice sweeping slider that gets nice action across the plate, though it's not always late action, while his curveball has truer 12-6 action that he doesn't always get down enough in the zone. The two can run together at times and get slurvy but it's nice feel for spin overall. Cervantes' changeup, as with Hernandez, is his best pitch, diving late as he pulls the string just before the plate. The 6'3" righty is a great mover on the mound with a loose, athletic delivery that does not require much effort, getting nice extension down the mound as well. He's more loose than explosive and may never approach Hernandez' velocity, but he should add a tick or two to his fastball as he fills out. Cervantes' easy delivery also helps him fill up the zone with above average command, giving him every chance to become a true horse at UCLA.

CBB-73: 3B Murf Gray, Fresno State
Slot value: $1.13 million. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($132,500 below slot value).
My rank: #86. MLB Pipeline: #141. Baseball America: #107.
I find Murf Gray to be a really interesting hitter, and I'm not surprised he went significantly higher than most publications had him ranked. He quickly earned a starting role during his freshman season at Fresno State, then improved each year and especially came on well late in his junior year, homering eleven times in his final eighteen games in 2025. Gray is a big guy listed at 6'4", 230 pounds, but he has always channeled his smooth right handed swing into more of a line drive, free swinging approach. That free swinging approach does limit the power a bit as he tends to swing at everything near the zone, not always finding the best pitch to drive. However, he has gradually gotten better at elevating the ball, improving from 18 extra base hits as a freshman to 29 as a sophomore to 43 as a junior. He gets away with it due to excellent bat to ball ability, holding an extremely impressive 11.1% strikeout rate for his career at Fresno State despite routinely expanding his strike zone. If the Pirates can help him become a bit more selective while continuing to drive the ball in the air a bit more, he has the combination of strength and bat to ball to profile as a 20+ home run, high average type at his ceiling. A strong run through the Cape Cod League last summer (.324/.398/.500) only reinforces that ceiling. Gray's cannon arm helps him profile at third base, but his bigger frame and choppier actions mean he'll need considerable refinement with the glove to stick over there. There is a good shot he moves to first base, which would really put pressure on the bat to come together. It's an interesting boom/bust profile from a college bat.

3-82: C Easton Carmichael, Oklahoma
Slot value: $979,500. Signing bonus: $977,000 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #110. MLB Pipeline: #93. Baseball America: #91.
When I ranked Easton Carmichael #110 on my board, it felt low, and it still feels low. This is a talented ballplayer. A three year starter at Oklahoma, he is a career .336/.387/.558 hitter that has never hit below .300 in a season. Carmichael is loose in the box and whips the barrel through the zone with impressive force, generating average raw power that played a bit below that over his first two seasons in Norman. However, he started elevating the ball better in 2025 and after hitting thirteen home runs in 112 games over his first two seasons combined, he bumped that total to seventeen in 60 games in 2025. The DFW native has always been an aggressive hitter, but he has gotten steadily more selective at the plate and bumped his walk rate from 6.0% in 2023 to 6.9% in 2024 to 9.1% in 2025. He's still aggressive, but now it is more controlled aggression. Carmichael makes up for it a bit with solid bat to ball ability, bringing his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.7% in 2025 and helping him project for a fringe-average or better hit tool in pro ball. A strong run through the Cape Cod League last summer (.299/.372/.496) lends further confidence that he can continue to hit as he moves up the ladder, potentially projecting for 15-20 home runs per season and decent batting averages. Behind the plate, he's a better athlete than most catchers with above average agility, and he has worked hard at Oklahoma to bring his glovework along to match his athleticism. At this point, he seems to have shown enough progress defensively to project to stick as a catcher, which makes the offensive projection much, much more enticing as it has become exceedingly difficult to find catchers who can hit. Carmichael probably projects as a strong backup catcher who could see a few seasons as the primary guy behind the plate in his prime.

4-113: SS Gustavo Melendez, La Merced HS [PR]
Slot value: $674,300. Signing bonus: $671,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #143. MLB Pipeline: #140. Baseball America: #123.
Gustavo Melendez gives the Pirates a fun profile here in the fourth round, signing away from a Wake Forest commitment for slot value. Listed at just 5'8", 160 pounds, he's not exactly the biggest guy on the field but he gets it done much like another undersized Pirates infielder, Nick Gonzales. Melendez has a surprisingly explosive left handed swing to produce respectable power despite his smaller size. While he'll probably never be a 20 home run threat, he should be able to flirt with double digits on an annual basis as he continues to hit the weight room. He shines, though, with the hit tool. He takes good at bats and has consistently competed with older talent, deftly maneuvering at bats against pitchers one, two years his senior. The bat to ball is above average here as well, as he keeps that big left handed swing under control and delivers the barrel on time and on plane to drive the ball around the field consistently. He only gets in trouble when he lets the swing get too big. On the other side, he's an average runner that moves well on the dirt, showcasing smooth actions, strong instincts, and the twitch needed to make all the plays at shortstop. His arm is closer to average and he could be pushed off shortstop by a more explosive defender, in which case he could fit as an above average second baseman. Whether Melendez ends up playing every day will likely depend on how much power he can develop, which the Pirates are bullish on given his extreme youth. The Puerto Rican product spent the entire 2025 summer at just 17 years old, making him a full year younger than most of the 2025 high school class and more than fifteen months younger than Pirates first rounder and fellow high schooler Seth Hernandez. He could still grow a bit and turn into a 10-12 home run threat with high on-base percentages and strong infield defense if he reaches his ceiling.

5-144: C Adonys Guzman, Arizona
Slot value: $499,000. Signing bonus: $496,500 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #314.
Adonys Guzman probably didn't receive enough love from the major public boards. Given the near-infinite number of players available to research, you always end up stopping at some point just before the draft and Adonys Guzman was on the short list of the next players I would have gotten to. A top prospect out of high school in Connecticut, he started off at Boston College but played sparingly as a freshman. He transferred across the country to Arizona, where he struggled to hit for impact as a sophomore before finally breaking out with a big junior year in 2025, placing himself back on the prospect map. Always a very disciplined hitter, Guzman started elevating the ball better in 2025 without sacrificing contact, and the results were excellent. He now shows a good chance at average power from a tight, uppercut right handed swing that channels his strength much better than the more off-balance stroke he had often unleashed over his first two seasons. While the bat to ball is fringe-average, his disciplined approach helps keep the swing and miss down and he ran a very reasonable 11.8% strikeout rate. Pittsburgh sees the old Adonys Guzman that hit just .130/.197/.185 in 18 Cape Cod League games as a thing of the past and now believes he can become a solid 15 home run hitter with decent, walk-driven on-base percentages. That bat will play given his glove. Guzman has always stood out for a cannon right arm that effectively shut down the running game against the Wildcats' defense, while his strong glovework makes him a no-doubt catcher at the next level. While that glove was previously going to need to carry him up the ladder, the steps forward with his bat could make him a very well-rounded backstop at the next level. While it still may not be enough to play every day, the New York native profiles as a solid backup with a great glove and some thump in the stick.

9-263: 1B Jared Jones, Louisiana State
Slot value: $206,100. Signing bonus: $203,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #148. MLB Pipeline: #101. Baseball America: #205.
Evidently one Jared Jones isn't enough for Pittsburgh. While Jared K. Jones is finishing up his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Jared R. Jones will join the organization as the team's ninth round pick. This Jones was widely known for his prodigious raw power as an Atlanta-area high schooler, but made it to campus at LSU where he became a one-man wrecking crew for the Tigers. In three seasons in Baton Rouge, he joined some of the biggest mashers in college baseball like Dylan Crews and Tommy White and slashed .311/.431/.665 with 64 home runs in 189 games. While he was initially scouted as a bat-first catcher in high school, he has given up the gear but otherwise remains largely the same prospect. Listed at 6'4", 245 pounds, he flicks the barrel through the zone with shocking ease to create plus-plus power and tap every bit of it in games. In fact, his 50 home runs are the most in college baseball over the past two seasons. The ball jumps off his bat to all fields, and he can get out in front of or under a baseball and still send it out to any part of the park. That power is available in the ninth round, of course, because it comes with a ton of swing and miss. He ran abysmal contact rates early in his college career, improved those significantly to start the 2025 season, but fell back to swinging and missing as the season went on and at the end we're left with a guy who will probably strike out 30% of the time in pro ball. Pro pitchers who trust their stuff will attack him in the zone, while those that don't can still get him to chase. Jones will need to shore up his in-zone contact against high-octane stuff and cut his chase rate, but so long as he can continue doing immense damage on contact, he can be a Mark Reynolds type with the bat. He'll need to hit because now that he's no longer catching, his glove is severely limited. He's as well below average athlete that will be confined to first base at best, with a chance he ends up as a full time DH. He turned 22 shortly after the draft, making him older than most college juniors.

13-383: RHP Dylan Mathiesen, Liberty
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Pittsburgh picked up a hometown kid here in the thirteenth round. Dylan Mathiesen grew up in Coraopolis, a Pittsburgh suburb northwest of downtown, and attended Montour High School in nearby McKees Rocks. He began his college career locally at California University of Pennsylvania, then transferred to Liberty as a sophomore where he began as a reliever in 2024 and joined the rotation in 2025. Mathiesen comes from a low three quarters slot and saw a significant velocity bump after working at Tread Athletics, jumping from the mid to upper 80's to touching 95 with Liberty. He adds in a sharp sweeping slider as his primary secondary, then rounds out the arsenal with a curveball and a changeup. With fringy command, he probably fits back in the bullpen in pro ball, where he can lean on the fastball/slider combination and get outs with his deceptive slot.

15-443: RHP McLane Moody, Northside Senior HS [AR]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $460,600 ($310,600 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #354.
With some of the unused money from what would have been Angel Cervantes' over slot bonus, Pittsburgh poured fifth round money onto fifteenth rounder McLane Moody, turning him away from an in-state Arkansas commitment and instead bringing him to Steel City. Moody is a towering 6'7" righty with massive projection on his rail-thin frame. He already sits in the low 90's and touches 96 at peak, coming in with huge riding life from a sky high release point. He snaps a solid curveball in the mid 70's with nice depth and finish, though he'll need to add a bit of power to the pitch for it to be effective against pro hitters. The command can come and go, as Moody is still growing into his body and learning to come fully around his plant leg and can get too closed off at times, causing him to miss arm side. This can be especially true with the breaking ball. As he fills out his big frame and starts to repeat his delivery a bit better, he should grow into more consistent command while adding a tick of power to his arsenal. Developing additional secondary offerings will be another point of emphasis, but Pittsburgh is presently all in on the towering righty with projection to dream on and a fastball already reaching 96.

17-503: OF Carter Gwost, Little Falls HS [MN]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($347,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Carter Gwost, like McLane Moody, was expected to reach campus, but Angel Cervantes' non-signing meant there was still fifth round money available to pry him away from a Nebraska commitment. Gwost is as off-the-radar as it gets, with very little video and information available on him outside of his own Twitter account. Hailing from the small, frozen town of Little Falls, Minnesota nearly one hundred miles northeast of the Twin Cities, he has demolished central Minnesota pitching and the Pirates believe he is only scratching the surface. He has begun packing strength onto his ultra projectable 6'3" frame, helping him generate above average power that could continue to grow into plus in time. It's hard to measure the hit tool given the competition he's faced, but he has shown everything with the bat that the Pirates want to see and the team loves the progress he has made. With a long development road ahead and some good coaching, the Pirates may have snuck a middle of the order masher in at the back of the draft if it all breaks right.

Saturday, November 8, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Marlins are not usually a team to go college bat early, with Aiva Arquette representing just the sixth time in franchise history dating back to 1992 that they've taken one with their first pick. If you take the past 29 drafts, he's only the fourth, and the last three (Colin Moran, JJ Bleday, Jacob Berry) have not quite met expectations. Despite this, Miami started off the draft with six straight college bats and overall did not draft a single high school player, relatively out of character for them. I really like this class they put together, especially if they're right about ninth rounder Kaiden Wilson that he hasn't yet scratched the surface of his potential. Miami focused on power early, with five of their initial six college bats showing above average or better raw exit velocities and second rounder Brandon Compton in particular showing some of the best raw power in the entire class. There is a uniquely Florida feel to this class as well, as six of Miami's picks hail from the Sunshine State (including five in a row from rounds 3-7, three Florida State Seminoles, and two former Stoneman Douglas Eagles).
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-7: SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Slot value: $7.15 million. Signing bonus: $7.15 million.
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #5.
It is hard not to love this pick for the Marlins, who acquired for themselves arguably the best all-around college position player in the entire draft. Aiva Arquette represents an excellent choice if they're going to break their college bat dry spell. He was a highly regarded prep who had interest in the top few rounds, but made it to campus at Washington where he turned in a star 2024 season. When head coach Jason Kelly split for College Station to become the new pitching coach at Texas A&M, Arquette headed south to Oregon State and exploded for a huge 2025, slashing .354/.461/.654 with 19 home runs while managing OSU's grueling travel-heavy schedule. Listed at 6'5", 220 pounds, he is an imposing presence in the box but brings with him the strong athleticism and feel for the game of a much smaller player. There is plus power in the tank that he has gotten to in games, coming from a leveraged right handed swing that gets the ball up in the air with authority. He doesn't have to sell out for home runs and could still hit 25-30 annually at peak, if not more. The swing has gotten a bit swoopy at times, but it looked more consistent in 2025 and his excellent hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel help him meet the ball on time even when he doesn't get long through the zone. He has also improved his approach from relatively aggressive to more average, helping him consistently find better pitches to hit and enabling that power to come forth. Arquette performed well last summer in the elite Cape Cod League as well, hitting .291/.357/.437 and impressing scouts by improving throughout the summer. In all, this is a big league bat that will hit in the middle of the order. While the hit tool is closer to average than plus, it's still plenty enough to get to his prodigious power. On the other side of the ball, Arquette impressed scouts with the progress he has made at shortstop, now looking like he can stick at the position long term despite his size. The Honolulu native has impressive body control, improving glovework, and the plus arm to become an average big league shortstop. He is an average runner that may be forced to third base if he slows down at all, but for now that doesn't appear to be an issue. An everyday shortstop that can flirt with 30 home run totals and get on base at a reasonable clip is a cornerstone player, and Miami thinks they've gotten that in Arquette.

CBA-43: OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson
Slot value: $2.28 million. Signing bonus: $2.28 million.
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #36. Baseball America: #27.
This is a really exciting pick outside the top 40. Cam Cannarella burst onto the scene as a Clemson freshman in 2023, hitting .388 with 24 stolen bases and earning first team freshman All-American honors from numerous outlets. A shoulder injury as a sophomore in 2024 slowed him somewhat, though he did set a career high with eleven home runs, then entered his junior season as a potential top ten overall pick. A slump to start the season dashed those hopes a bit, but he finished red hot on a 22 game hitting streak that included a trio of four hit games and a separate trio of three hit games. While Clemson ultimately did not survive their home regional, it was not Cannarella's fault as he went 8-14 (.571 AVG) with a pair of home runs against a red hot USC Upstate, West Virginia, and Kentucky. The South Carolina native is much smaller than his first round counterpart at a listed 6', 185 pounds, his skinny frame not lending itselt to much power. He's more of a slasher anyways so he's not looking to tap his below average power much, but he is an excellent contact hitter who rarely expands the zone and forces pitchers to come to him. With an accurate barrel that helps him get to balls all over the zone while adjusting effectively to offspeed stuff, he is well equipped to handle major league pitching and still make the most out of pitches he gets fooled on. On-base percentage will be his strength (he finished three years at Clemson with an excellent .453 OBP across 178 games), and he'll have to really turn on the ball to get it over the fence with wood. Additionally, Cannarella is a plus runner with excellent instincts in the outfield, helping him catch everything in his zip code while making some incredible plays up against the wall, though he doesn't have much of an arm. He's a sparkplug with infectious energy on both sides of the ball, inspiring his teammates to rally behind him as he plays as hard as anybody. The profile reminds me a lot of Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick, though Cannarella has the benefit of being a few inches taller.

2-46: OF Brandon Compton, Arizona State
Slot value: $2.13 million. Signing bonus: $2 million ($128,800 below slot value).
My rank: #45. MLB Pipeline: #47. Baseball America: #41.
Brandon Compton is another very exciting pick, albeit with the polar opposite profile to Cam Cannarella. He did not play as a true freshman, then burst onto the scene by hitting .354/.427/.661 with 14 home runs as a redshirt freshman in 2024. Expectations were high as he pushed himself into the first round conversation for 2025, but the stat line (.271/.379/.486, 9 HR) couldn't quite live up to what he did in 2024. However, the under the hood numbers were excellent and represented a far better player than the stat line showed, and teams were still lining up to grab him in the second round. He has some of the most impressive raw power in the class, recording 90th percentile exit velocities around 110 MPH and putting on one of the most jaw-dropping MLB Draft Combine batting practices in the event's history. It's a gorgeous, compact left handed swing combined with tons of strength from a sturdy 6'1", 225 pound frame that sends the ball rocketing off the bat in the air with authority. He cut his strikeout rate from 25.5% as a freshman to 21.1% as a sophomore, still high but more palatable. There will always be swing and miss in Compton's game, though a strong run through the Cape Cod League (.331/.414/.489, just 16.6% strikeout rate) lends hope that it shouldn't be a dealbreaker in pro ball. Pressure will be on his surface numbers to bounce back in pro ball though because his defensive tools are all fringy at best, leaving left field as the most likely landing place. He won't provide much value on that side of the ball. That said, if he can just made contact at a reasonable rate, the power is so impressive that he could threaten for 30+ home run seasons annually at peak.

3-78: OF Max Williams, Florida State
Slot value: $1.04 million. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($146,200 below slot value).
My rank: #70. MLB Pipeline: #81. Baseball America: #92.
The first of many Floridians in this class for the Marlins, Max Williams' hometown is variously listed as Ormond Beach (just north of Daytona) or Fleming Island (south of Jacksonville) and he attended Clay High School in Green Cove Springs (also south of Jacksonville). Williams began his career at Alabama, hitting well in a part-time role before transferring back home to Florida State and putting up two excellent seasons. He has a bit of an awkward setup at the plate, using a spread out stance and a choppy swing that gashes at the ball more than anything else. It works, though, as his twitchy athleticism and innate strength helps him blast the ball in the air with authority, showing plus power in games that helped him crush 33 home runs over 119 games in two seasons in Tallahassee. In fact, the ball jumps off his bat so spectacularly (similar to Brandon Compton) that mechanical tweaks could help him unlock 30 homer power in the big leagues. Williams is very aggressive at the plate, limiting his walks, but he fights his way through at bats and works pitchers better than most ultra-aggressive hitters. He also shows very solid bat to ball to make up for the tendency to chase out of the zone, keeping the strikeout rates reasonable (and dropping from 21.6% in 2024 to 16.1% in 2025). In the outfield, his above average speed gives him a shot to play center field if he can refine his reads and routes a little bit, but if Cam Cannarella hits enough to claim that spot, his above average arm will help him profile very well in either corner outfield spot. To top it off, Williams is very young for a college junior, not turning 21 until a month after the draft and clocking in nearly a full year younger than other college bats the Marlins took to start this draft.

4-108: SS Drew Faurot, Florida State
Slot value: $708,300. Signing bonus: $531,225 ($177,075 below slot value).
My rank: #147. MLB Pipeline: #158. Baseball America: #248.
Two picks, two North Florida natives who transferred into Florida State. Drew Faurot was a well-known prep prospect who pushed himself up draft boards with a strong spring at Florida State University High School in Tallahassee, but spurned offers to head to UCF. After blasting fifteen home runs as a true freshman, he transferred back to his hometown to play for FSU. While his numbers took a step back as a sophomore, he re-established himself as a junior in 2025 to push back into roughly the same draft range where he had been in high school. Faurot has huge bat speed that gives him above average raw power and helped him hit sixteen home runs in 2025, producing strong batted ball data. He does a great job getting his arms extended to produce that power, though in turn the swing can get long and he can swing and miss in the zone a bit. With a moderately aggressive approach, there are some strikeout questions, though his 18.3% K rate in 2025 represented a career-best and he showed well against strong pitching on the Cape last summer (.263/.342/.414). A switch hitter that performs better from the right side, there are some who would like to see him focus just on that side of the plate. Faurot has a solid glove and can handle any position on the infield, though he's just a little bit stretched at shortstop and figures to profile at second base in the long run. This could become a utility infield profile with the thump to club 15-20 home runs annually if he gets enough at bats to get there, or if the hit tool translates then he could find himself as an every day second baseman.

5-139: 1B Chris Arroyo, Virginia
Slot value: $523,900. Signing bonus: $521,400 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #134. MLB Pipeline: #193. Baseball America: #110.
Chris Arroyo brings the Marlins a third straight Floridian. Born and initially raised in Puerto Rico, he attended high school at powerhouse Stoneman Douglas in the South Florida suburb of Coral Springs alongside seventh rounder Jake Clemente. Beginning his college career at Florida with Clemente, he pitched a little but ultimately spent most of the season on the bench. Transferring to Pasco Hernando State, he exploded as one of the best JuCo hitters in the country while also showing well on the mound, earning a two-way opportunity at UVA. He made it onto the mound for 12.2 innings in Charlottesville, but ultimately shined with the bat where he served as the team's regular first baseman. Miami will be drafting him as a hitter only. Arroyo shows sneaky plus raw power, though it plays closer to above average with a more linear swing geared for all fields line drive contact. While he's an aggressive hitter, he still controls the zone well by fighting off tough pitches and battling deep into counts, ultimately leading to a low 13.8% strikeout rate in 2025. It's the kind of offensive profile that could improve dramatically in pro ball, especially as he focuses on hitting only. Additionally, like Max Williams he is extremely young for the class and didn't turn 21 until September, making him more than a year younger than Cam Cannarella. That gives Miami more time to fine tune the approach. Defensively limited to first base now that he's no longer pitching, the pressure will be on his bat and especially the power to start showing up more frequently. This is an interesting profile that gives the Marlins a lot to work with and could become a potential 20+ home run bat annually.

6-168: LHP Joey Volini, Florida State
Slot value: $397,000. Signing bonus: $297,750 ($99,250 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #216. Baseball America: #303.
Continuing to roll with the Floridians, Miami picked up a third Florida State Seminole transfer in four picks. Joey Volini grew up in Tampa and played at powerhouse Jesuit High School alongside future Seminole and A's #11 overall pick Jamie Arnold, then began his career locally at USF where he showed well in sporadic action. Joining Drew Faurot in transferring to Florida State in 2025, Volini started off the season with a bang by dominating virtually every opponent early in the season. By the end of March, he was 7-0 with a 1.25 ERA and a 63/9 strikeout to walk ratio across 43.1 innings. After getting roughed up by Wake Forest in April, his numbers came back to earth a little bit over his next several starts, but the prospect was established. Volini does not throw particularly hard, sitting around 90 and only really topping out around 93 at peak, but he makes up for it with the rest of the profile. He can really spin a breaking ball, showing excellent finish on his deep curveball while tightening it up for a solid slider as well, while his deceptive changeup gives him a fourth big league pitch. Volini trusts all four pitches and can throw them in any count, also showing the ability to command everything to both sides of the plate. His strong feel for pitching helps him keep hitters off balance, while his huge frame (6'4", 245 pounds) gives the indication that he'll be durable going forward. With above average command, an approach that keeps pitch counts down, and that big frame, he has a very good shot to become a back-end starter. In order to do that, he'll need to find another tick or two on the fastball so 89 over the plate doesn't get crushed. As a senior sign, he'll turn 23 in December but has the profile to move quickly.

7-198: RHP Jake Clemente, Florida
Slot value: $309,400. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($190,600 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #189. Baseball America: #204.
The final in our run of five straight Floridians, Jake Clemente snuck up draft boards and has a chance to outplay many of his pre-draft projections. A native of Coral Springs, Clemente was teammates with fifth rounder Chris Arroyo at Stoneman Douglas High School and the two were part of the same incoming freshman class at Florida prior to the 2023 season. Clemente missed the entire season with shoulder problems, then when Arroyo transferred out, he took a regular role in the bullpen in 2024. While his transition to the rotation in 2025 was short-lived, he thrived upon becoming the Gators' closer and from April onwards held a 1.45 ERA and a 35.4% strikeout rate across 31 innings. Clemente is a power arm, sitting in the mid 90's as a starter and touching as high as 99 in relief with sink to generate ground ball contact down and miss bats up. The velocity is the primary draw, as his mid to upper 80's power slider can lack finish at times and his firm changeup is a tertiary pitch. He added a curveball in 2025 that seems to have better finish and might be his better breaking ball going forward. The 6'3" righty is plenty physical enough to start with an athletic delivery and strong frame, but fringy command coming from very long arm action as well as a lack of a putaway secondary might make a transition to the rotation difficult. Given that Miami gave him fifth round money to sign here in the seventh round, they may have some hopes of trying him in the rotation once again once they have a chance to stretch him out in spring training. Regardless, the floor here is that of a power reliever who can approach triple digits out of the bullpen, and if they can sharpen one of the secondaries, that's a big league reliever.

9-258: LHP Kaiden Wilson, Texas A&M
Slot value: $209,600. Signing bonus: $697,500 ($487,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This one is a pure projection play for Miami. Kaiden Wilson has very little track record and went unranked on most major public draft boards, but signed for fourth round money here in the ninth round. Wilson has just 33.1 innings under his belt with an ugly 6.21 ERA, having never started a game nor completed three innings in a single outing for the Aggies, but Miami believes in the upside. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and plays up with riding and cutting action from a high slot, making for a relatively unique fastball shape that has proven very difficult to square up. He has a sharp mid 80's slider with tight sweep to miss bats, while his changeup is a tertiary pitch at this point. Wilson has struggled with command and his stuff can play down when he falls behind in the count and/or leaves the ball over the plate, precluding Texas A&M from stretching him out as a starter. Given the hefty investment, I'd expect the Marlins to do just that in spring training in 2026, looking to fine tune the command a bit and bring along his changeup. The 6'2" lefty is plenty physical and looks durable enough to handle the move so long as the command and secondaries come along. It's very interesting stuff from the left side that will absolutely play against major league hitters so long as he can get himself up to the Show.

15-438: 3B Josh Hogue, North Carolina State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
NC State infielders out of Florida have a pretty good track record, with two famous examples including Trea Turner (Lake Worth) and Tommy White (St. Pete Beach). Josh Hogue, a native of North Palm Beach who played his high school ball at Palm Beach Gardens High School, is hoping to be the next, though he's not technically an infielder yet. Hogue initially played at Santa Fe JC in Gainesville, then transferred to NC State where he hit .314 as a sophomore then nearly tripled his home run output while hitting .321 as a junior in 2025. Hogue is a very solid all around hitter, showing above average bat to ball ability and a keen eye to pick up offspeed stuff out of the hand. There's some pop in the bat too, as he can let loose when he gets a pitch he likes and drive it in the air to the pull side. He jumped from ten extra base hits and a .450 slugging percentage in 2024 to 29 extra base hits and a .562 slugging percentage in 2025, showing the ability more and more often to turn on the ball without sacrificing contact. Hogue played exclusively outfield in Raleigh and did the same during his brief pro debut with Low A Jupiter (ironically less than a fifteen minute drive from his high school), where he would be limited to a corner spot, but Miami did draft him as a third baseman and could give him a shot on the dirt next year. Overall, Hogue profiles as a bench option who can swing it a bit from the left side.