2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Detroit Tigers

This is a very pitching-heavy system, led by the four consecutive right handed pitchers they took in the first round from 2015-2018 in Beau Burrows, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, and Casey Mize, respectively. However, that 2018 draft has interestingly produced a lot of pitching talent in the later rounds, including ninth rounder Tarik Skubal, 18th rounder Ethan DeCaster, and 26th rounder Garrett Hill. Noting the utter lack of impact hitters in this system aside from maybe Isaac Paredes, the Tigers turned their focus there in the 2019 draft and stocked up with six consecutive hitters, most notably first rounder Riley Greene, and they also added Roberto Campos through the international market. It's a system that's really deep in pitching, but they'll really want to get some of those recent offensive draftees going as well as incumbents like Daz Cameron, Kody Clemens, Parker Meadows, and Wenceel Perez.

Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie SeaWolves, High A Lakeland, Class A West Michigan, short season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers

Catcher
- Jake Rogers (2020 Age: 25): Rogers was the Astros' third round pick out of Tulane in 2016, then he came to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade in 2017. He bounced back from a tough 2018 to slash .250/.361/.484 with 14 home runs and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games at AA Erie and AAA Toledo, then hit .125/.222/.259 with four home runs and a 51/13 strikeout to walk ratio in a 35 game big league call-up. He only has to hit a little bit, because he might be the best defensive catching prospect in the game. He'll likely contend for Gold Gloves immediately after taking on a full time role, which in turn will help the Tigers' big group of young arms coming up. He does have some power, which has enabled him to hit 18, 17, and 18 home runs over the past three seasons, though his hit tool is pretty fringy and the swing and miss in his game was exposed during his stint in the majors in 2019. Even if his bat just stopped developing today, he'd be a very useful backup catcher with his defense, but if he can figure out how to tap that power in the majors, he could easily overtake Austin Romine as the team's starter back there.
- Yoandy Rea (2020 Age: 19-20): I researched and researched to try to find some information on Yoandy Rea, but unfortunately, there is nothing online, but I really want to include him here so I'll have to "scout the stat line." Signed out of Venezuela in 2017, he didn't get enough money to show up on any trackers, but he hit well in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 (.320/.405/.455) then absolutely raked in 2019. He spent most of the year in the complex level Gulf Coast League, slashing .400/.453/.653 with five home runs and a 10/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games, then earned a late promotion to short season Connecticut and hit .238/.273/.238 with a 7/0 strikeout to walk ratio in six games. He's a very advanced hitter at the plate for his age who is quickly developing some wiry power, and catchers who can hit for impact are hard to find. I know nothing about his defense, but even if it's raw, he's young enough to hone his craft and hopefully stick back there.
- Keep an eye on: Kade Scivicque, Cooper Johnson, Sam McMillan, Eliezer Alfonzo

Corner Infield
- Isaac Paredes (2020 Age: 21): The Cubs originally signed Paredes out of Mexico in 2015, then they shipped him across town in the Alex Avila/Justin Wilson trade. He's an extremely competent hitter who slashed .282/.368/.416 with 13 home runs and a 61/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Erie in 2019, standing out for his exceptional ability to control the zone while still hitting for impact. He has a very simple swing that enables him to find the barrel very consistently, and he has some over the fence power in his compact 5'11" frame, though he'll never be a true power hitter. I'm very confident that he'll be able to hit at the major league level, perhaps with 10-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages if things break right, and that should be enough to land him a starting job. It's not clear where yet, as he's played mostly shortstop to this point in his career but he's fringy there, and he could also fit at second or third base. He's played more third base than second to this point, and his good arm fits well there, so I'll include him as a corner infielder for now.
- Andre Lipcius (2020 Age: 21-22): Lipcius was a third round pick out of Tennessee in 2019, and he held his own in a relatively aggressive assignment to Class A West Michigan to begin his career by slashing .273/.344/.360 with two home runs and a 57/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. The Tigers did pick him for his bat, as he's an advanced hitter who has hit well both in the Cape Cod League and in the SEC, making easy contact with a swing that produces good power. How much power he'll actually be able to generate is still a question, but it could be above average if he takes to pro ball like has to all his other assignments throughout his amateur career. Defensively, he's a bit fringy and may need to move to first base, which would put added pressure on the bat.
- Nick Quintana (2020 Age: 22): Quintana, the Tigers' second pick out of Arizona in 2019, a round before Lipcius, slashed just .194/.273/.280 with a pair of home runs and an 82/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games at short season Connecticut and Class A West Michigan in his pro debut. A very accomplished hitter back in Tucson, he came into pro ball needing to prove his hit tool and unfortunately his 31.5% strikeout rate didn't ease any of those questions. Though he's only 5'10", he has a lot of power from the right side and could be an impact hitter if everything breaks right. He'll probably need to shorten up his swing a bit in order to get to it in pro ball though, given the aforementioned contact problems. Unlike Lipcius, his glove will work in his favor, as he's very strong at third base and might even be able to handle shortstop if the Tigers wanted to get ambitious.
- Keep an eye on: Frank Schwindel, Nick Ames, Ryan Kreidler

Middle Infield
- Willi Castro (2020 Age: 23): Castro came over from the Indians for Leonys Martin in 2018, and he's impressed the Tigers so far by slashing .301/.366/.467 with eleven home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 110/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AAA Toledo in 2019. He then hit .230/.284/.340 with a home run and a 34/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 major league games, like Jake Rogers staying just under rookie limits. He's a consistent hitter who finds the barrel pretty easily, enabling him to post high batting averages and relatively low strikeout numbers wherever he goes, and he has enough gap power and a little bit of over the fence power to be much more than just a slap hitter. The switch hitter also shows some speed and a good arm in the infield, and while he's a bit fringy at shortstop, he might still be able to stick there. With Niko Goodrum really the only person standing in his way, he could conceivably start regularly in 2020 and beyond, though he probably fits more as a very strong utility infielder who can play any position and get hits when needed off the bench in a more long term role.
- Kody Clemens (2020 Age: 23-24): Clemens (yes, that is his father) had a huge breakout year as a redshirt junior at Texas in 2018, though I thought the third round was a bit of a reach for him and so far, he hasn't quite figured out pro pitching as the Tigers have pushed him aggressively. In 2019, he slashed .231/.310/.397 with twelve home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 119/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, flashing big time ability at times but not consistently yet. He has good power in his left handed swing, and he got to it extremely consistently during that junior year in Austin, though it's played closer to average in pro ball as pitchers have found ways to avoid his barrel. He's controlling the zone fairly well and he does have a good shot at translating that back into tapping his power, though as a fringy defender at second base, he'll have to hit. He'll get another crack at AA in 2020 with the chance to hit his way up to the big league club.
- Sergio Alcantara (2020 Age: 23-24): Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, Alcantara came over in the ill-fated J.D. Martinez trade and despite not really panning out yet, he might still end up as the best prospect in the trade over Dawel Lugo and Jose King. In 2019, Alcantara hit .247/.346/.296 with two home runs and a 71/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 games at AA Erie, which was an accurate reflection of his offensive ability. Purely a singles hitter, he has virtually no power to speak of and doesn't even drive the ball into the gaps enough to hit a lot of doubles and triples. However, he does control the zone well and he puts the ball in play consistently, so he's not useless as a hitter. His true value lies in his glove, which is elite and could play in the majors right now. That alone could get him onto the big league club, where he could be a late game defensive replacement/utility infielder, and he could stick in the majors if he figured out how to channel just enough power to start hitting those doubles and triples into the gap.
- Wenceel Perez (2020 Age: 20): Wenceel Perez, who managed to fit five e's into a twelve letter name, impressed in his first two pro seasons before hitting a bit of a speed bump in 2019. After hitting .314/.387/.358 in 2017 and .312/.368/.429 in 2018, he slumped to .233/.299/.314 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and an 87/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A West Michigan in 2019. That's not a huge deal because he was only 19 years old, and the switch hitter still did a good job of controlling the strike zone while appearing in 124 of 139 games. It's that natural hitting ability that the Tigers are working to build off of, as he likely won't ever be a power hitter but he makes enough contact that he should be able to tap some gap power and maximize whatever power he does have. He's also a great runner and a very good defender at shortstop, so he's really a four tool player. Set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old, Perez just needs to use his natural understanding of hitting to start to drive the ball more rather than simply put it in play, and he could be a starting shortstop down the road.
- Adinso Reyes (2020 Age: 18): Reyes signed for $1.45 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, then lit up the Dominican Summer League in 2019 by slashing .331/.379/.508 with seven home runs and a 51/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at just 17 years old. He finished the season on a 17 game hitting streak and had multiple hits in 14 of his final 25 games, showing great feel for the barrel and the ability to consistently hit the ball hard right out of the gate in his young career. He has an aggressive approach at the plate that limits his walks, and while it didn't hurt him one bit against DSL pitching, it will be something to monitor as he moves stateside and starts to face higher level pitching. Reyes, like most young players, will also need to make tweaks to his hitting mechanics, but in general I don't think 2019 could have gone much better for him. A shortstop for now, he could end up anywhere in the infield when all is said and done. At this point, he's so young that it's hard to project exactly what kind of player he'll be, so we're better off just watching and waiting.
- Keep an eye on: John Valente, Jose King, Carlos Irigoyen

Outfield
- Daz Cameron (2020 Age: 23): Cameron was a highly regarded prospect coming out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, where he could have gone in the top half of the first round, but signability pushed him down to the competitive balance round and the Astros gave him and over slot $4 million deal. He went to the Tigers in the Justin Verlander trade and in 2019, he slashed .214/.330/.377 with 13 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 152/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AAA Toledo. He's been slow to develop, but that development has brought slow but steady progress, and he retains the loud tools that made him such an exciting prospect as an amateur. He's got wiry strength that will enable him to put a lot of balls into the gaps and his share into the seats, while his plus speed has helped him steal 109 bases in his minor league career and makes him a good center fielder. He also has a patient approach at the plate that helps him draw his share of walks, but at this point, he's struggled just enough with contact that it's limited his ability to make everything play up. Set to play all of 2020 at just 23 years old, he certainly has the chance to continue learning the nuances of advanced pitching, and I don't really see a reason to doubt that he will. If he can, he could crack the Tigers outfield in 2020 and end up as a starting center fielder that can hit 15-20 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and good defense.
- Derek Hill (2020 Age: 24): It's been a really long road up for Hill, who was a first round pick out of a Sacramento-area high school in 2014, and in 2019 he slashed .243/.311/.394 with 14 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 147/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA Erie. The power was new, as he had never hit more than four in a season before, and more importantly, 2019 marked his second consecutive full season after never playing in more than 93 games from 2015-2017 due to injuries. I don't think that power will play all the way up and make him a 15 homer threat in the majors, but it's nice to see him hitting for more impact after being more of a slap hitter early in his career. Hill still needs to lock down the strike zone a bit more, but he does get some slack for all the missed time with injuries. Defensively, he's a whiz in center field that can absolutely stick there and be an asset, buying his bat even more time, and that easy plus speed also helps him on the bases, where he's stolen 156 in his career. It's more of a fourth outfielder profile than anything else, but he could finally crack the big league roster in 2020.
- Riley Greene (2020 Age: 19): Greene went fifth overall out of an Orlando-area high school in 2019, and at just 18 years old he became the top hitting prospect in the system. In his pro debut, Greene slashed .271/.347/.403 with five home runs and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, short season Connecticut, and in an aggressive assignment to Class A West Michigan. A big guy at 6'3", he's hit over power at this point because he has such an exceptional feel for hitting, both in terms of navigating counts and finding the barrel consistently, and he should move much more quickly than most high school hitters. Once he adjusts to pro pitching, I expect him to start tapping some power too, as his swing is geared towards producing power but doesn't come with much swing and miss. Greene has the chance to hit 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages, though of course he still does have a long way to go and a $6.18 million signing bonus doesn't mean a guarantee.
- Bryant Packard (2020 Age: 22): Packard was a streaky hitter at East Carolina who slashed an impressive .406/.462/.671 as a sophomore, but a streakier junior season dropped him to the fifth round in 2019. In his pro debut, Packard slashed .296/.392/.422 with three home runs and a 38/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games at short season Connecticut, Class A West Michigan, and even briefly at High A Lakeland. His strong numbers definitely leave the Tigers excited about his future, as he's shown both the ability to hit for contact and power and at 6'3", the Tigers think he can tap more. He has a track record of hitting advanced pitching and that advanced approach translated into pro ball, and if he can shorten his swing and cut down on his strikeouts just a little bit, he could be a true impact hitter down the line. As a mediocre defender, it will be the bat alone that will have to carry him.
- Parker Meadows (2020 Age: 20): The younger brother of Rays standout Austin Meadows, Parker went in the second round out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2018 but stumbled a bit in his first full season, slashing .221/.296/.312 with seven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 113/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Class A West Michigan in 2019. Your classic projectable power hitter at a lanky 6'5", Meadows showed a lot of power as a high schooler, albeit from a long swing that was destined to cause swing and miss problems in pro ball. To his and the Tigers' credit, he shorted that swing up and was much more direct to the ball in 2019, and while it kept his swing and miss reasonably low, it also sapped his power considerably and he finished with just 24 extra base hits in 126 games. Because he was able to keep his strikeout rate somewhat down at 22.4%, I'm cautiously optimistic that he'll be able to make further adjustments and figure himself out as a hitter, finding a middle ground between getting his arms extended to drive the ball and staying direct to said ball. The 2019 season was a minor disappointment, but it's far too early to consider his stock to be considerably down. Hopefully he'll get things figured out in 2020.
- Roberto Campos (2020 Age: 16-17): Born in June of 2003, Campos signed for $2.85 million out of Cuba in 2019 and will be one of the youngest players in all of professional baseball when he begins his career in 2020. There's only video of one swing online, from when he was 13 years old back in 2017, and there isn't a ton of publicly available information on him. What we do know is that he has a ton of power from the right side and the Tigers have to be very confident in his ability to get to it given the size of his bonus, and his most likely fit is in right or left field going forward. He'll start playing in the Dominican Summer League right around his 17th birthday this spring, and he comes with as a high of a ceiling as you can get at that age.
- Keep an eye on: Jacob Robson, Troy Stokes Jr., Danny Woodrow, Jose Azocar, Brock Deatherage, Ulrich Bojarski

Starting Pitching
- Casey Mize (2020 Age: 22-23): Man, there is a lot to consider here. Mize rode an absolutely brilliant three years at Auburn to being the first overall pick in 2018, and he was in High A by the end of July. 2019 got off to as good of a start as humanly possible, and as of June 13th he was 8-0 with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, including a complete game no-hitter in his AA debut. He was untouchable. However, he came out of that June 13th start with shoulder soreness and missed nearly a month, then came back and was noticeably more human; from there he was 0-3 with a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 31/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings. I don't know, maybe he was being cautious with his shoulder, maybe it was just a natural funk he ran into as a barely-22 year old in AA, but if anything it wasn't a good sign. Shoulder injuries can be so unpredictable, and there were minor questions about Mize's durability in college, so I'm just nervous. That said, Mize is otherwise as complete a pitcher as there can be at 22. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adds a really good slider, and can finish hitters off with a devastating splitter that is one of the best pitches in all of the minor leagues. Additionally, he can command everything very well, and he knows just how to deploy his arsenal to get hitters out very consistently. That gives him true top of the rotation potential and, if this shoulder thing turns out to just be a minor speed bump, a really good chance to get there and the floor of a mid-rotation starter as soon as 2020.
- Matt Manning (2020 Age: 22): Two years after selecting Derek Hill in the first round out of high school in the Sacramento-area, the Tigers went back to the capital area and picked Matt Manning in the first round of the 2016 draft out of high school just ten minutes from where Hill grew up. Manning, though, has been much more successful, and 2019 was his best season yet as he posted a 2.56 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 148/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at AA Erie. He's a 6'6" right hander that has just continuously gotten better, to put it simply, and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great curveball, a progressing changeup, and quickly improving command. He's much more refined than he was coming out of high school, filling up the strike zone and sequencing his plus stuff, and it all plays up from a smooth delivery that can make the ball jump on hitters quicker than it looks. If he can make those last couple of little refinements in 2020, he should be up in the majors relatively quickly, and he has #2 starter potential down the line.
- Alex Faedo (2020 Age: 24): Faedo went in the first round out of Florida in 2017, then after a strong first full season in 2018, he turned in another strong season in 2019 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 134/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 115.1 innings at AA Erie. The 6'5" righty doesn't stand out in any particular area, but his well-rounded game helps makes him a strong rotation candidate. His velocity is a bit down since college, now sitting in the low 90's, and his former plus slider has been a little more inconsistent, though it still does flash plus. At the same time, he's improved his command and become a more complete pitcher, and he controlled the zone well against AA hitting in 2019. Faedo's likely role is as a #4 or a #5 starter, but he does have the chance to become a #3 if he can get a little more consistent with his stuff.
- Tarik Skubal (2020 Age: 23): Skubal was a ninth round pick out of Seattle University in 2018, but he's been absolutely dominant in his pro career so far. He had a 0.40 ERA and a 33/4 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut, then in 2019 he put up a 2.42 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 179/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at High A Lakeland and AA Erie. His stuff has taken a step forward in pro ball, and he now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two distinct breaking balls in a diving curveball and a harder slider. He's also thrown more strikes than expected, which has enabled his big stuff to play up in pro ball, and if he stays healthy he has real #2 or #3 starter potential. Next up for him will be continuing the development of his changeup, but otherwise he just needs to maintain the massive strides he made in 2019.
- Beau Burrows (2020 Age: 23): Burrow, a late first round pick in 2015 out of high school outside Fort Worth, looked really good early in his pro career but has been a bit less consistent in the upper minors. In 2019, he posted a 4.84 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 69/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo, missing time at various points due to nagging injuries. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches, which enables him to attack hitters in a variety of ways. His command has been inconsistent throughout his career, which is finally catching up to him in the upper minors, but when he's throwing strikes he's still very difficult to hit. The full arsenal gives him a good chance to be a #4 starter, though his stuff would fit really well in the bullpen if he were to move there, and that would most likely put him in the majors in 2020.
- Joey Wentz (2020 Age: 22): Wentz was a Braves' competitive balance pick out of high school in the Kansas City area in 2016, then came over to Detroit in the Shane Greene trade this year. Between the two organizations this year, he had a 4.20 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 137/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.2 innings in AA, though he did have a strong, five start run in his brief stint on the Tigers side (2.10 ERA, 37/4 K/BB). His stuff has been inconsistent throughout his career, though at his best he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add both a good curveball and a good changeup. His command isn't pinpoint, but he's rarely wild and can hit his spots reasonably well, enough to make his stuff play up. The 6'5" lefty probably could have used a change of scenery, as he was getting buried in the Braves' deep, deep crop of arms, and this new opportunity with the Tigers could help him jump towards his ceiling of a mid rotation starter.
- Franklin Perez (2020 Age: 22): Perez was perhaps the centerpiece return in the 2017 trade that sent Justin Verlander to Houston, but lat and shoulder problems have limited him to just 27 innings over two years in his new organization. When healthy, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, any of which he can use to miss bats, and he throws plenty of strikes so that they can play up. He was really an advanced pitcher for his age before the injuries, so he'll still be just 22 years old for all of 2020. He's really a great case study for why shoulder injuries just suck so badly, because he's exceptionally talented and has top of the rotation potential, even still. Hopefully the Tigers can get him healthy and going in 2020.
- Elvin Rodriguez (2020 Age: 22): Originally an Angels prospect, Rodriguez came over to Detroit as the player to be named later in the Justin Upton trade in 2017, and he's steadily developed throughout his time in the minors. In 2019, he posted a 3.77 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 112/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 133.2 innings at High A Lakeland, and he looks to be leading the next wave of Tigers pitching prospects behind the guys in the upper minors. He's young but he has a clear understanding of how to pitch, and he can beat you with any pitch in his arsenal by locating and sequencing them, helping them play up. He won't be an ace, but he could be a strong #4 starter or even a #3 if he can take a step forward with his low 90's velocity.
- Paul Richan (2020 Age: 23): The Cubs picked up Richan in the second competitive balance round in 2018, then traded him to the Tigers in the Nick Castellanos deal in 2019. Between the two organizations, he posted a 4.00 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 115/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.2 innings in High A. He's a fairly generic starter, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding an average set of secondaries, but he commands everything really well and rarely hurts himself with walks. That makes all of his stuff play up, and he struck out 29 batters to just two walks after the trade. It's a basic #4/#5 starter package, but if he can sharpen his stuff just a little bit, he could be more given that command.
- Garrett Hill (2020 Age: 24): Tarik Skubal isn't the only later-round 2018 draft arm to exceed expectations in the Tigers system this year. Garrett Hill went in the 26th round out of San Diego State in 2018, then in 2019 he posted a 2.25 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 129/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. I couldn't find any velocity readings for him, but it looks like he gets some arm side run on his fastball and adds a breaking ball with some late movement and a good running changeup, all of which plays up due to his solid command. Hill's a classic back of the rotation candidate, which saying a lot for a kid who was a 26th rounder a year ago and was an unremarkable California junior college arm two years ago.
- Keep an eye on: Logan Shore, Tom de Blok, Wilkel Hernandez, Austin Bergner

Relief Pitching
- Rony Garcia (2020 Age: 22): Garcia was the first overall pick in the rule five draft this year, meaning that he'll have to stick on Detroit's 26 man roster all season long or be sent back to the Yankees. That means he'll be skipping AAA and will spend the season in either the bullpen or the rotation, though the former is probably more likely. In 2019, he posted a 4.01 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 129/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings in High A and AA, as his game has continued to gradually develop in all areas. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondaries including a curveball with nice two plane break, an inconsistent changeup that flashes above average, and a new cutter. He also throws strikes for the most part, and it all comes together as a rough #5 starter profile at present. Hopefully he can refine his changeup and command a bit more so that he can stick in that rotation, though since he'll be jumping straight to the majors, the Tigers might hold him back in the bullpen for a little bit while he works on that.
- Bryan Garcia (2020 Age: 25): A sixth round pick out of Miami in 2016, Garcia lost his 2018 season to Tommy John surgery but bounced back nicely in 2019 with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 47/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo. He then posted a 12.15 ERA and a 7/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 6.2 major league innings in September, but he'll be back in 2020. Garcia has a mid 90's fastball and a good slider, which he can command well enough to fit a middle relief profile right away in 2020. Taking a step forward with either the slider, his command, or his new changeup he's been working on will likely be enough to get him into a more high leverage role.
- Ethan DeCaster (2020 Age: 25): This is an interesting arm. DeCaster began his college career at Creighton, but transferred to Duke for grad school after earning his diploma. He still had a year of eligibility and went in the 18th round to the Tigers, and promptly put up a 0.84 ERA and a 39/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his pro debut. I've already mentioned fellow 2018 draftees Tarik Skubal and Garrett Hill outplaying their later draft positions, so what's one more? In 2019, DeCaster had a 2.70 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 71/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.1 innings at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and AAA Toledo, and knocking on the door to the majors barely a year out of grad school. He's a 6'3" righty with a funky sidearm delivery, so he's purely a reliever, and even in relief his fastball barely scrapes 90. However, it has a lot of run on it that makes it difficult to square up, and his frisbee slider just dives across the plate. He adds a changeup with nice fade as well, giving him three unconventional pitches to deploy against hitters late in games. I'm excited to see how he fares in the majors in 2020, since I'm pretty confident he'll earn the call at some point.
- Anthony Castro (2020 Age: 25): Castro signed out of Venezuela way back in 2011, yet he's still only 24 years old and very much a prospect. In 2019, he posted a 4.40 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 116/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings as a starter at AA Erie, but his future is most likely in the bullpen. Castro sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it's easy to see a bump above that in relief, and he adds a good slider that could be sharper in short spurts. His lack of a good changeup and mediocre command have held him back as a starter, but would probably be less of an issue in the bullpen. Either way, he has a live arm that makes him really interesting to watch, and his stuff has always been very difficult to square up when he's around the zone.
- Keep an eye on: Kyle Funkhouser, Wladimir Pinto, Drew Carlton, Alex Lange, Zack Hess

2018 Draft: A Year Later

One year does not tell you everything you need to know about a draft's success, but the first full season is often a huge tell as to how a player's amateur production will translate into pro ball. In 2017, 2016 second rounder Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) slashed .362/.423/.565 in A ball to turn himself into one of the top prospects in his draft class, while fourth overall pick Riley Pint's (Rockies) 5.42 ERA and poor 79/59 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A that year pointed towards what has ultimately been a disappointing start to his pro career and a greatly diminished prospect status. Now, this does go the other way. Using the same 2016 draft class, third rounder Austin Hays (Orioles) slashed .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 2017 to vault himself all the way to the big leagues, but 2018 and 2019 have been rather pedestrian and he has lost some shine from that big first full season. On the flip side, first rounder Gavin Lux (Dodgers) looked rather mediocre in Class A that year with a .244/.331/.362 slash line, but he exploded for a .324/.399/.514 line in 2018 and is now one of the top prospects in the game.

All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.

The Top Five Picks

1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.

1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.

1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.

1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.

1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.

Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.

1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.

1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.

2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.

CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.

Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)

Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.

1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.

CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.

Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39,  Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)

2019 Minor League Awards

I put together some awards for the top minor leaguers in a few categories. These are strictly performance based and don't have anything to do with prospect status, though prospect status and being at a higher level would give some players the edge over others in close contests. Different minor leagues have very different run scoring environments, and those are very much factored into consideration. For example, the AAA Pacific Coast League is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, the AAA International League and High A California League are hitter-friendly as well, and leagues such as the AA Texas League, High A Florida State League, and the Class A Midwest League lean more pitcher-friendly.

Hitter of the Year

Winner: OF Luis Robert (White Sox High A, AA, and AAA, age 21-22)
32 HR, .328/.376/.624, 36 SB, 170 wRC+ in 122 games
In 2017, a 19 year old Braves prospect slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 home runs and 44 stolen bases across the three highest minor league levels, then won the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award. The White Sox hope that 22 year old Luis Robert is halfway to following in Ronald Acuna's footsteps with his huge and eerily similar season across three levels. Robert, who was 21 at the beginning of the season, began at High A Winston-Salem but demolished Carolina League pitching to the tune of a .453/.512/.920 slash line and eight home runs over 19 games before being promoted to AA Birmingham. He continued to rake in the Southern League, hitting eight more home runs and slashing .314/.362/.518 across 56 games, then got promoted again to AAA Charlotte. The ball was flying in AAA this year and all power numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, but a .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs over 47 games is still extremely impressive for someone who started the season down in A ball. The Cuban outfielder is an exceptional athlete with the kind of power/speed combination teams covet, and by crushing 32 home runs in 2019, he proved that getting to that power is no problem whatsoever. He's an aggressive hitter who makes a lot of contact and therefore fails to draw a ton of walks, but because he still hit .328, his .376 on-base percentage remained strong. Eloy Jimenez was the White Sox' top outfield prospect a year ago but Robert has a very good chance to be the better player very soon.

Runner-Up: SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers AA and AAA, age 21)
26 HR, .347/.421/.607, 10 SB, 165 wRC+ in 113 games
A first round pick in 2016 out of a Wisconsin high school, Lux has gotten better and better the longer he has been in the Dodgers system. A mediocre 2017 at Class A Great Lakes translated into a very strong 2018 between High A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and he returned to the level for 2019. Over 64 games, he slashed .313/.375/.521 with 13 home runs and seven stolen bases, so the Dodgers promoted him across the state to AAA Oklahoma City. The Pacific Coast League is an extremely offense-friendly environment, but even in that context, the numbers he put up in 49 games were ludicrous: 13 home runs, a .392/.478/.719 slash line, and a strong 42/33 strikeout to walk ratio despite being just 21 years old. Together, that meant he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 26 home runs over 113 games, all the while playing strong defense at shortstop and showing his speed on the bases. Lux has power, strong plate discipline, the ability to get on base, some speed, and strong infield defense, leaving very few holes in his game and he's already up in the major leagues contributing with the Dodgers. Unless he somehow reaches 130 at bats this September, he'll be a strong candidate for the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Award after Dodgers won it in both 2016 (Corey Seager) and 2017 (Cody Bellinger), followed by a very strong 2018 performance from Walker Buehler.

Honorable Mention: OF Jarred Kelenic (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 19-20)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games
Jarred Kelenic's numbers might not be as eye popping as the other five players listed here, but he was also the only one who didn't get a turn through homer-happy AAA. Kelenic, the Mets' sixth overall pick out of a Wisconsin high school in 2018 who was traded to the Mariners in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano deal, began the season with Class A West Virginia and quickly hit his way out by slashing .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs in 50 games in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. Bumped up to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League, he held his own against older competition by slashing .290/.353/.485 with six home runs and ten stolen bases in 46 games. A second promotion brought him to AA Arkansas less than a month after his 20th birthday, and he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six home runs over 21 games against much older competition in the pitcher-friendly Texas League. Together, that gave him a 20-20 season, a strong .364 on-base percentage, and a .540 slugging percentage across three levels at a young age, adding in good defense in the outfield along the way. Had Kelenic had the chance to play at AAA Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League, his raw numbers may have rivaled those of Trent Grisham, listed right below in the "others" section.

Others
Brewers OF Trent Grisham (26 HR, .300/.407/.603, 12 SB, 166 wRC+ in 97 games, age 22)
Twins/Giants OF Jaylin Davis (35 HR, .306/.397/.590, 10 SB,  159 wRC+ in 126 games, age 24-25)
Padres 3B Ty France (27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games, age 24-25)

Pitcher of the Year

Winner: RHP Logan Gilbert (Mariners Class A, High A, and AA, age 21-22)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP
Drafted in the first round out of Stetson in 2018, Gilbert didn't pitch professionally that year and first took the mound in the Mariners organization in April. At the close of the season, it's safe to say that it went pretty well. Gilbert started out at Class A West Virginia but lasted just five starts there with a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 35/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.2 innings before being promoted to High A Modesto in the hitter-friendly California League. Nobody told him that it was an offense-heavy environment, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings. Promoted again to AA Arkansas, he posted a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 innings, bringing him to 165 strikeouts, a 2.13 ERA, and a sub-1.00 WHIP over 26 starts, half of which came in the California League. His best start of the season came on May 19th, when he shut down a strong Rancho Cucamonga lineup (Dodgers High A) over seven innings, allowing two hits and no walks while striking out eleven. In all, he allowed no more than one earned run in 18 of his 26 starts, and he struck out at least five batters in 21 of 26. Gilbert should be up in the majors at some point in 2020 as a potential future ace.

Runner-Up: RHP James Marvel (Pirates AA and AAA, age 25)
16-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 136/46 K/BB in 162.1 IP
Marvel lacks the flash of other prospects on this list, and as a 25 year old former 36th round draft pick out of Duke, he still doesn't project to be much more than a #4 or #5 starter. Still, that doesn't take away from the fantastic season he had in 2019. Beginning the year with AA Altoona, he went 9-5 with a 3.10 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and an 83/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.2 innings – solid numbers, but nothing that rivals the other guys on this list. However, he was promoted to AAA Indianapolis in July to pitch in the very hitter-friendly International League, and he just kicked it into another gear by going 7-0 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings, helping him lead all minor leaguers with 16 wins and finish fifth with 162.1 innings pitched. The numbers aren't flashy, but the huge body of work combined with the exceptional turn through the International League where very few other pitchers seemed to be able to find their groove makes his final product as impressive as anybody's in Minor League Baseball. Marvel's most impressive start came on July 5th, when in his first game in the International League launching pad, he tossed seven shutout innings on three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts against Toledo (Tigers AAA). He also had Syracuse's (Mets AAA) number, tossing back to back starts of six shutout innings on a combined two hits and sixteen strikeouts (and five walks) on July 18th and 24th.

Honorable Mention: LHP MacKenzie Gore (Padres High A and AA, age 20)
9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135/28 K/BB in 101 IP
MLB Pipeline named MacKenzie Gore their minor league pitcher of the year, and while I can't quite get behind that due to his smaller body of work (Logan Gilbert threw 34 more innings and James Marvel through 61.1 more), there's no denying that Gore was nothing short of brilliant in 2019. The third overall pick of the 2017 draft out of a small town North Carolina high school, Gore showed flashes of what was to come with an up and down 2018 at Class A Fort Wayne (4.45 ERA, 74/18 K/BB), but 2019 was a completely different story altogether. Starting the year at High A Lake Elsinore in the hitter-friendly California League, Gore was as close to untouchable as it gets as he posted a 1.02 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 110/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, totaling just 56 non-error baserunners in 15 starts. He was promoted to AA Amarillo less than six months after his 20th birthday and pitched very well again, though his 4.15 ERA was skewed by his July 19th start against Northwest Arkansas (Royals AA) where he allowed seven earned runs. If you take out that one start, Gore's final ERA and WHIP would be 1.11 and 0.76, respectively, over 97 innings. That's insane. During his time in Lake Elsinore, he allowed more than one run in only one of his 15 starts, and even then he only let two cross the plate in six innings. His last two starts at the level were his best, as he combined for 13.2 shutout innings on six hits, four walks, and one hit batsman while striking out 18, ironically with both of those starts coming against Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers High A), the same team which touched him up for two runs earlier in the season and which Logan Gilbert had his best start against. Gore will probably return to Amarillo in 2020 but could pitch his way to the majors before the season is over.

Others
Dodgers RHP Josiah Gray (11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP, age 21)
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (8-3, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB in 113.2, age 22)
Rays RHP Joe Ryan (9-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 183/27 K/BB in 123.2 IP, age 22-23)

Other Notable Seasons

RHP Casey Mize (Tigers High A and AA, age 21-22)
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP
As of June 13th, Mize looked like a lock to not only make the Pitcher of the Year list, but win it handily. The 2018 first overall pick out of Auburn had been absolutely untouchable to that point, with a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings across two levels. On April 29th, his first start at AA Erie less than a year after being drafted, he tossed a no-hitter with seven strikeouts against Altoona (Pirates AA). However, on June 13th, he went down with shoulder issues that kept him out for a month, and he allowed five or more earned runs in three of his first five starts back with AA Erie after two rehab starts at High A Lakeland. Hopefully, Mize puts the shoulder issue behind him and gets back on track in 2020.

RHP James Karinchak (Indians complex, AA, and AAA, age 23)
1-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 74/17 K/BB in 30.1 IP
A 2.67 ERA over 30 innings isn't going to land you on the short list for pitcher of the year, but Karinchak's season was pretty incredible nonetheless. In all, he struck out 74 of the 125 batters he faced, or 59.2%, which is the best number I've ever seen. Through two playoff games, he's struck out seven of the twelve batter's he's faced, bringing up him up to 81 strikeouts over 137 batters. He struggles with his command and won't be a major league closer immediately, but he misses bats like no other.

3B Ty France (Padres AAA, age 24-25) and 1B Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks AAA, age 26)
Ty France: 27 HR, .399/.477/.770, 1 SB, 196 wRC+ in 76 games
Kevin Cron: 39 HR, .329/.446/.777, 1 SB, 181 wRC+ in 84 games
Of all the big numbers put up in the AAA Pacific Coast League, perhaps no two hitters were more impressive than El Paso's Ty France and Reno's Kevin Cron. France flirted with .400 while hitting for power throughout the season and finished at .399/.477/.770 with 27 home runs in 76 games, while Cron smashed 39 home runs in 84 games while slashing .329/.446/.777 along the way. France had back to back multi-homer games in April and he hit six home runs in a five game stretch in June. On July 25th, he had one of the better offensive performances of the season when he went 5-6 with a pair of home runs against Las Vegas (A's AAA). Meanwhile, Cron hit seven home runs in a six game stretch in May and blasted three home runs on August 13th against Oklahoma City (Dodgers AAA), and together with his five major league home runs, he's already hit 44 on the season despite missing a couple weeks in July.

Reviewing the Detroit Tigers Farm System

The Tigers' farm system is much improved over the past few years, going from a nice collection of arms and a couple bats to a balanced system with enough of both. While the system is still fairly pitching-heavy considering the Tigers well-known preference of drafting pitchers, they have added quite a few bats via trade recently such as Daz Cameron, Jake Rogers, Willi Castro, Dawel Lugo, and breakout star Isaac Paredes. Back on the pitching side, this draft strategy has worked well for them because their first round picks in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018, all right handed pitchers, are arguably the four best prospects in the system. In 2014, they drafted outfielder Derek Hill, who is not quite a bust yet but who is looking like he may never hit enough to reach the majors.

Affiliates: AAA Toledo Mud Hens, AA Erie Seawolves, High A Lakeland Flying Tigers, Class A West Michigan Whitecaps, Short Season Connecticut Tigers, complex level GCL and DSL Tigers

High Drafted Arms: RHP Beau Burrows, RHP Matt Manning, RHP Alex Faedo, RHP Casey Mize, and RHP Kyle Funkhouser
Each of the Tigers' last four first round picks have been right handed pitchers, and those four are now the core of the farm system. In 2015, Detroit grabbed now-22 year old Beau Burrows out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd overall pick, and he just posted a 4.10 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 127/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 134 innings at AA Erie. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a full assortment with a curve, a slider, and a changeup, which he commands well enough to give him an overall projection as a workhorse #3 or #4 starter. Sharpening his command a little bit further will ensure that he ends up a useful mid-rotation arm, though at present it looks unlikely that he ends up as anything less than a #5 starter. 20 year old Matt Manning was the Tigers' first round pick (ninth overall) out of a Sacramento high school in 2016 and he has been just as good as advertised. In 2018, he posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 154/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings at Class A West Michigan, High A Lakeland, and Erie, handling both promotions easily. He throws in the low to mid 90's with a very loose arm and adds a very good curveball, one which has enabled him to put up strikeouts in bunches. His command is really the only thing that needs to come along, but his mechanics are improving as he grows into his skinny 6'6" frame and with his athleticism, I think he ends up with above average command in the end. He has ace upside, but like any other 20 year old prospect, he'll have to stay healthy and continue to make progress with his delivery in order to reach it. In 2017, the Tigers' first round pick (18th overall) was now-23 year old Alex Faedo from the University of Florida, and Faedo put up a solid first pro season by posting a 4.02 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 110/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at Lakeland and Erie. The big 6'5" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds an excellent slider and a good changeup, but his command is just inconsistent enough to keep him from being considered an elite prospect. With no improvement in his start to start command, he looks like a #4 starter, but he has chance to be a very good mid-rotation guy, possibly even a #2, if he can bring it all together. He'll require more minor league seasoning in 2019 but look for Faedo to be knocking on the door when it comes to September call-ups. Most recently, the Tigers took 21 year old Casey Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Auburn, and Mize posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings between complex ball and Lakeland in his debut. The 6'3" righty is already close to major league ready, bringing a mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a devastating splitter to the table and commanding it all with ease. His combination of stuff and command could work in the major leagues today, the only reason he isn't going straight to the majors is that he just needs to see professional hitters and learn how to handle them first, which shouldn't be a problem. The only knock on Mize comes from a durability standpoint, as he was shut down at the end of his freshman and sophomore seasons at Auburn then stumbled a little bit down the stretch in his junior year, but the Tigers might look to smooth out his delivery just a little bit. His delivery isn't high-effort, per se, but he doesn't have the loosest arm action in the world and a few minor tweaks could make Mize an ace who will be in the majors very soon. Lastly, I'll add that 24 year old Kyle Funkhouser, the Tigers' fourth round pick out of Louisville in 2016, has been a big draft find as well. Funkhouser was considered a potential top ten pick at points during the 2015 season, but he slid with an up and down junior season, didn't sign when the Dodgers drafted him 35th overall, then slid to the fourth round in 2016. However, he has turned that slide around in the minors, and in 2018 he posted a 3.96 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 96/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings between Erie and AAA Toledo before a foot injury ended his season in July. He throws in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal with a slider, curveball, and changeup, commanding it all well enough to make it work. Nothing really stands out about his game, but he has already proven himself against AA competition and he'll get another shot at AAA in 2019, after which he could compete as a back-end starter or a long reliever.

Outfielders: OF Christin Stewart, OF Daz Cameron, OF Jacob Robson, OF Dustin Peterson, OF Parker Meadows, and OF Brock Deatherage
Most of the Tigers' best outfield prospects are close to the majors at this point, and with Nicholas Castellanos looking like the only sure-starter out there, it's wide open for some of these guys to seize starting roles in the very near future. 25 year old Christin Stewart, who slashed .267/.375/.417 with a pair of home runs in his 17 game MLB debut in 2018, is arguably the top prospect in this group. He's a power hitter who has clubbed 83 home runs over the past three minor league seasons, and in 2018 he slashed .263/.363/.488 with 25 home runs and a 108/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games, almost all at AAA Toledo. He packs a lot of pop for a six footer, and in 2018, he addressed his biggest offensive weakness and dropped his strikeout rate from 2017's 24.9% to a better 20.7% (excluding ten punchless plate appearances in complex ball) despite moving up from AA to AAA. He kept it up in a small MLB sample, his 13 strikeouts in 72 plate appearances coming out to 18.1%. All of his value will be tied to his bat because he's a mediocre defender in left field, but with his power, high walk rate, and lower strikeout rate, he could open 2019 as the Tigers' starting left fielder and contend for the AL Rookie of the Year Award if somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doesn't win it. Right behind him on the depth chart is 22 year old Daz Cameron, who came over from Houston in the Justin Verlander trade and slashed .264/.343/.406 with eight home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 137/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at High A Lakeland, AA Erie, and Toledo. Cameron's speed makes him a valuable defender in center field as well as an asset on the bases, but his bat is beginning to come along too. Unlike Stewart, he will always be glove-first, but Cameron has enough feel for the barrel and a patient enough approach to get on base at a good clip, and his wiry strength gives him enough power to where he's not just a contact hitter. The overall offensive package is pretty average and he probably never ends up being an impact hitter in the middle of the lineup, but the good center field defense buys the bat enough slack that he has a good chance of becoming a starting outfielder, if not in 2019 then in 2020. 24 year olds Jacob Robson and Dustin Peterson are more likely to end up fourth outfielders, with Robson having slashed .295/.376/.440 with 11 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 140/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Erie and Toledo and Peterson having slashed .268/.324/.406 with 11 home runs and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at the Braves' AAA affiliate in Gwinnett. Robson is a more complete player and therefore the better prospect, showing a little bit of everything but no standout tool aside from his speed. Not known for his power, his 44 extra base hits and .440 slugging percentage were a surprise in 2018, but the 5'10", 175 pounder strikes out enough to where he probably won't get to his power as much in the majors. Peterson, meanwhile, has more natural power and is more likely to get to it in the majors, but he has been inconsistent and even at his best, his power plays closer to average, and unlike Robson he doesn't have that speed to fall back on. Peterson and Robson could compliment each other nicely on the Detroit bench if there is room for both. Down lower in the minors, 19 year old Parker Meadows, the younger brother of now-Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, was the Tigers' second round pick (44th overall) in 2018 and slashed a nice .290/.377/.473 with four home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in complex ball and with short season Connecticut. Standing at 6'5", the skinny outfielder's glove is presently ahead of his bat, as he moves well for such a tall kid and has a good arm. He's more about projection at the plate, as his long (too long if you ask some) swing has plenty of bat speed and loft, combining with his height to give him the chance for really big power down the road. That long swing, as well as some difficulty with pitch recognition, causes him to swing and miss a fair amount, but pro coaching and refinement could help him click at the plate and shoot him to the top of the Tigers' prospect rankings in the future. For now, consider him a long-term project who could turn into a speedier Christin Stewart if it works out. Lastly, 23 year old Brock Deatherage was a tenth round pick out of NC State in 2018, but he quickly made himself known by slashing .326/.385/.504 with seven home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games between complex ball, Class A West Michigan, and Lakeland. A streaky hitter in college, I saw him play during his senior season and his swing immediately stuck out to me. Like Meadows, he has a very long swing, but the strength and whip in his wrists helps him generate more power than you'd expect for a skinny, speedy, 6'1" kid. The length in his swing, as well as so-so plate discipline, also caused his streakiness in college, but he proved himself quickly in A ball and pro coaching could make him a steal in the tenth round. I'm a Deatherage fan and he might no longer be a sleeper prospect after the 2019 season.

Infielders and Catchers: 3B Isaac Paredes, SS Willi Castro, IF Dawel Lugo, 2B Kody Clemens, and C Jake Rogers
The Tigers aren't very deep when it comes to infield prospects, but the short list includes their best position-playing prospect in Isaac Paredes and unlike many teams, they actually have a viable catching prospect in Jake Rogers. 19 year old Isaac Paredes has not gotten nearly the recognition he deserves when it comes to top prospect discussions around the league, and he alone will likely make the Justin Wilson/Alex Avila trade with the Cubs look like a robbery. The teenager slashed .278/.359/.456 with 15 home runs and a 76/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lakeland and AA Erie, looking even better after his promotion and showing a wide range of skills against much older competition. He is growing into some moderate power, makes ready contact, and has a very advanced approach at the plate, giving him a very high floor and the potential to become a top of the lineup bat. Defensively, he has more question marks with a fringe-average glove and a good arm, so he likely moves off of shortstop and ends up at second or third base in the long run. He has the bat to profile at either, and because he turns just 20 years old during spring training, he has plenty of time to make further adjustments and become an impact hitter. 21 year old Willi Castro is over from Cleveland in the Leonys Martin trade and slashed .264/.315/.392 with nine home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 games at AA Akron/Erie and AAA Toledo. He has been improving on both sides of the ball as he has moved through the minors, and he now projects as an average all-around player with contact ability, a little bit of power, some speed, and decent defense at shortstop. Overall that gives him more of a utility projection, though a few tweaks to his approach (he reached AAA at just 21) and a little bit of luck could help him become a starting shortstop in the near future, albeit not one who will hit in the middle of the lineup. 24 year old Dawel Lugo, who was a part of the Cliff Pennington trade in 2015 and the J.D. Martinez deal of 2017, has a very light bat but is in the right place at the right time to try to compete for a starting spot in Detroit. This year he slashed .269/.283/.350 with three home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 66/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Toledo, then hit .213/.267/.309 in 27 major league games. On most teams, Lugo would be more of a fringe-prospect, but the Tigers are shallow enough in the infield that he has a shot there and could use his solid feel for the barrel to get major league playing time. Defensively, he has a good arm but will probably split time between second and third base, but he'll have to get more patient at the plate if he wants to remain in the major leagues. Down low in the minors, 22 year old Kody Clemens (son of Roger) was a third round pick (79th overall) out of Texas this year, following up a huge redshirt junior season for the Longhorns (24 HR, .351/.444/.726) with a strong pro debut by slashing .288/.365/.450 with five home runs and a 39/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at Class A West Michigan and High A Lakeland. He has power but many, myself included, questioned his ability to get to it consistently in pro ball. He answered that question at least as far as Class A goes (.302/.387/.477), but the real test will be in the higher levels as his long swing may lead to high strikeout totals. Defensively, he's just okay at second base, so the bat will have to carry him. If he continues to produce like he did in college and in Class A, then that should be no problem. Lastly, 23 year old Jake Rogers came over to Detroit in the Justin Verlander trade then slashed .219/.305/.412 with 17 home runs and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games at Erie. This was a step back from his 2017 numbers (.261/.350/.467 in A ball), but his bat isn't what makes him a big prospect. Rogers fantastic defensive catcher, one who can block anything and whose cannon arm makes potential base stealers very cautious. Because his glove is so good at a premium position and could likely win Gold Gloves at the major league level, all he has to do is hit a little bit in order to get to the majors. While the bat is a little bit more of a question mark now than it was last year, he still showed some power, and if he can get to it enough to hit 15 home runs per season in the majors, he should be able to be a major league starting catcher.

Other Pitchers: RHP Franklin Perez, RHP Logan Shore, LHP Matt Hall, LHP Gregory Soto, RHP Grayson Long, and RHP Bryan Garcia
While the four straight first round picks are truly the core of the farm system, the Tigers have plenty of other good pitchers, too. 20 year old Franklin Perez is easily the best prospect in the group, though injuries limited him to seven starts in 2018 and he posted a 6.52 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 14/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 innings at High A Lakeland and complex ball rehab. While he didn't get a chance to prove anything on the field in 2018 after being traded to the Tigers in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade, the raw talent is very exciting. The 6'3" righty throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a curveball, slider, and changeup, all of which are weapons and all of which he commands very well for someone his age. Having not gotten the chance to make any progress in 2018, he's not a guaranteed starter down the road, but he has top of the rotation potential and he'll spend all of 2019 at 20 years old. 24 year old Logan Shore came over to the Tigers in the Mike Fiers trade, though he never pitched for a Tigers affiliate in 2018 after putting up a 4.45 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings at High A and AA for the A's. Shore was actually the Florida Gators' ace ahead of A's sixth overall pick A.J. Puk in 2016, though unlike Puk, he's more about pitchability over stuff. The 6'2" righty throws in the low 90's and adds a great changeup and a mediocre slider, though he is able to succeed because he mixes his pitches well and locates them even more effectively. He likely never ends up more than a #4 or #5 starter, but he has a good shot at cracking a major league rotation or at the very least becoming an effective long reliever. 25 year old Matt Hall is an older prospect, but he had an outstanding season in the upper minors this year by going 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 135/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Erie and AAA Toledo. That was an extension of the success he's had throughout his minor league career, as the six foot lefty is now 28-11 with a 2.48 ERA over nearly 100 minor league appearances. He only throws about 90 and isn't a control artist like Shore, but his great curveball enables everything else to play up and has carried him all the way to the majors, though he was shelled for 16 runs (13 earned) over just eight innings in his short stint with the Tigers. Presently, he's likely more of a long relief candidate than a rotation guy, but if can improve his command a little bit, he could stick as a back-end starter. 23 year old Gregory Soto is another promising arm, having posted a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 115/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings at Lakeland. However, we'll have to wait a little bit to see him in 2019 as he'll miss the first 20 games of the season after being suspended for "conduct detrimental or prejudicial to baseball." He only throws in the low 90's but gets enough movement on his fastball that hitters have a tough time squaring it up, though the rest of his game needs work. His curveball and changeup are nothing special and he struggles with command, but the Tigers like his live arm and hope they can help his stuff tick up. I'm less enamored with him and I think he ends up a reliever, but he's a breakout candidate if he can learn some command. 24 year old Grayson Long and 23 year old Bryan Garcia both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery, so both will definitely come into 2019 with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Long is a 6'5" righty out of Texas A&M who came over from the Angels in the Justin Upton trade, coming off a 2017 where he had a 3.01 ERA and a 128/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A and AA. Meanwhile, Garcia is a 6'1" right handed reliever out of the University of Miami who posted a 2.13 ERA and a 78/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings across four levels in 2017. Long will be 25 in May, but he was close to the major league ready when he went down with the surgery and should be able to compete for a back-end rotation spot in the near future. Garcia, meanwhile, is a hard throwing fastball/slider guy who was also close to major league ready, and he should be in the bullpen mix pretty soon after he's healthy. While Long looks like a back-end starter, Garcia has the upside of a late-inning reliever.

2018 Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

First 5 rounds: Casey Mize (1-1), Parker Meadows (2-44), Kody Clemens (3-79), Kingston Liniak (4-105), Adam Wolf (5-135)
Also notable: Tarik Skubal (9-255), Brock Deatherage (10-285), Avery Tuck (17-495), Jeb Bargfeldt (29-855)

Obviously, the success of this draft hinges primarily on first overall pick Casey Mize, but there is plenty more to look at in this draft. Personally, I find it a bit underwhelming, though they did a good job mixing up their picks and grabbing players from every demographic. They covered all their bases, but I'd come away just a little bit disappointed if I were a Tigers fan, aside from the Mize pick obviously.

1-1: RHP Casey Mize (my rank: 1)
Everyone saw this pick coming from a month away, and it's easy to see why. It's no secret that the Tigers love to take hard throwing right handers in the first round (see Alex Faedo in 2017, Matt Manning in 2016, and Beau Burrows in 2015), and Mize fits that description and more. After an excellent sophomore season at Auburn (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 109/9 K/BB), it was more of the same for him as a junior (10-6, 3.30 ERA, 156/16 K/BB), all against the toughest competition in the SEC. You can tell from the stat line that he knows how to mix his stuff and move it around, striking out opponents in bunches while rarely ever walking his opponents. His stuff starts with a mid 90's fastball with movement, but he is much more than his fastball. His slider is a very good diving pitch, but his best pitch is his splitter, which just seems to get sucked down into a black hole before it hits the plate. He commands it all very well, and really has no holes in his game from a stuff standpoint. The only knocks on him are his arm action and durability, which haven't quite been answered. He had to be shut down as a freshman and as a sophomore, but made it through his whole junior season with no issues, though he did have a few rough starts towards the end of the season. His arm doesn't seem particularly loose, which could cause his durability issues. Aside from that, though, he has top of the rotation potential with a very high floor assuming he stays healthy. He hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just under $8.1 million.

2-44: OF Parker Meadows (my rank: 49)
For most teams, I would see this as a decent pick, but I actually really like it for the Tigers. Meadows, whose older brother Austin plays for the Pirates, is a high school outfielder from the Atlanta area. He has big power but big swing and miss issues, as he is a lanky, 6'4" left handed hitter with a very long swing and not much of an eye for pitch recognition. I actually think Detroit will be the perfect place for him, and here's why. Obviously, he has to get through the minors first, but once he gets to the majors, Comerica Park really plays to his strengths. It's tough to hit a ball out of there given the deep fences, but he has the power to clear them if he gets ahold of one, and he also has the speed to turn those balls in the gaps into doubles and triples. Additionally, his mediocre pitch recognition could be just a bit mitigated by Comerica's famously effective batters' eye. He's a high ceiling, low floor player, but Detroit is where I think he is most likely to hit that ceiling if he can just get through the minors. He has not signed yet, with pick value sitting just over $1.6 million.

3-79: 2B Kody Clemens (unranked)
Roger Clemens' son had two straight mediocre seasons at Texas, but broke out with arguably the best offensive season in college baseball this year. In 63 games heading into the College World Series, he is slashing .356/.449/.745 with 24 home runs and a 46/40 strikeout to walk ratio, punishing anything thrown his way and leading Texas much farther into the postseason than many thought they would go just a few weeks ago. That said, I'm not sure his chances of producing in pro ball are high enough for the 79th pick. He had this one good season, but he hasn't shown that he can maintain that over multiple seasons, and his swing seems more geared for college pitching than pro pitching. He does a good job leaving his hands back, but they start low and he has a hard time catching up to high fastballs. On defense, he's so-so, with the possibility of sticking at second base but no guarantee. He redshirted a year after hurting his elbow, so he's already 22, but the good news is that he supposedly has a very good work ethic and should be able to maximize his skill set. Because he is still playing in the College World Series, he hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting at $750,800.

5-135: LHP Adam Wolf (unranked)
Wolf is coming off a big year as the Louisville ace, going 8-2 with a 2.63 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 109/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings for the Cardinals. Wolf isn't a power pitcher, but gets his success from pitchability, the ability to command his pitches, and his very good cutter. His ceiling is that of a back-end starter, but he has a good chance to reach it. The 6'6" lefty could also end up a reliever, where he could carve out a long career. He signed at slot for $398,300.

Others: 4th rounder Kingston Liniak, besides having a cool name, is a fairly similar player to second rounder Parker Meadows in that he is a power hitting high school outfielder with a lot of risk and a lot of reward. Unlike Meadows, he's a right handed hitter, and his swing lacks much loft at all right now as he swings down on it. Keeping his hands farther back and getting up under the ball should help his power production. His $900,000 signing bonus was $366,700 above slot. 9th rounder Tarik Skubal generated buzz with a strong start to his sophomore season at Seattle University in 2016 (6-1, 2.11 ERA, 50/17 K/BB), but went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the whole 2017 season. He was back in 2018 and while he wasn't quite as effective (8-2, 4.16 ERA, 106/56 K/BB), he still has the makings of a solid pro prospect. The 6'3" lefty probably moves to the bullpen with his spotty command and high effort, leg-powered delivery, but he could thrive there with his above average stuff. 10th rounder Brock Deatherage (they're really loading up on the cool names, aren't they?) has been a four year starter at NC State, with his senior year being his best. The outfielder slashed .307/.397/.548 with 14 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 76/28 strikeout to walk ratio, showing off about every tool but plate discipline. He has a long swing but generates a lot of whip in it, which should translate to power at the next level, and he has good speed as well. While the 10.4% walk rate is decent, the 28.2% strikeout rate is too high, so he'll have to tighten up the zone in order to reach the majors. He turns 23 in September, so it'll have to be quick, too. 17th rounder Avery Tuck could have been a top five rounds pick out of high school in 2016, but he decided to head to San Diego State instead. Things didn't work out there, and he ended up at New Mexico Junior College for 2018. He's athletic and has a lot of power potential, but swing and miss issues have been present and he's a high risk player, which is okay for the 17th round. 29th rounder Jeb Bargfeldt has been Miami's ace for the past two seasons, finishing 2018 4-5 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 101 innings, striking out 76 and walking 30. He's a pitchability 6' lefty with pretty decent command who could move through the minors as a reliever.

2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 College RHP's

College right handers are always popular on draft day, as they are often close to finished products and can get to the major leagues pretty quickly. Casey Mize is all but certain to go first overall, and four of these guys will almost certainly go in the first round. Five of the first seven guys on this list come from the SEC, which isn't surprising when you realize that Max Scherzer (Missouri), Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Aaron Nola (LSU), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), Lance Lynn (Ole Miss), and plenty more were all SEC right handers.

1. Casey Mize (Auburn)
Nothing is ever a sure thing with the draft, but all signs point to Mize going first overall to the Tigers and have for a while. A year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent SEC history in 2017 (8-2, 2.04 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 109/9 K/BB), Mize came right back with another huge season in 2018. Across 16 starts, the 6'3" righty went 10-5 with a 2.95 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 151/12 strikeout to walk ratio across 109.2 innings, showcasing premium stuff and excellent command. He may not be all that projectable, but that is okay when the finished product throws mid 90's with an un-hittable splitter, a good slider, and the ability to command all three pitches wherever he wants them. He has a  track record of success in the SEC and has very few flaws associated with his profile. To nitpick, he was shut down at the end of his sophomore season, but that didn't happen this year, though he did have a couple of so-so starts towards the end of this year.

2. Brady Singer (Florida)
Brady Singer will make it three straight years that a Florida Gator starting pitcher was drafted in the first eighteen picks, following A.J. Puk (6th overall, 2016) and Alex Faedo (18th overall, 2017). Singer dominated the powerful SEC as a sophomore last year (9-5, 3.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 129/32 K/BB), then was even better this year, at least statistically, going 11-1 with a 2.27 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio across 95 innings. He is your prototypical top of the draft starting pitcher, bringing in a track record of performance, pitcher's frame (6'5", 180 lbs), a smooth delivery, a fastball in the mid 90's, a slider that is un-hittable at its best, a good changeup, and plenty of control to make it all work together. In addition, he is said to have a good work ethic and a true pitcher's mentality on the mound. Some scouts knock him for his inconsistency and his three quarters arm slot, but he still projects to go anywhere in the top half of the first round.

3. Logan Gilbert (Stetson)
Gilbert is a bit tough to project, having dominated both the Cape Cod League (1.72 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 31/4 K/BB) and the Atlantic Sun Conference in college, but he has been inconsistent at times and has a wide range of projections for a first round college starting pitcher. He turned in a very good season in 2018 (11-1, 2.52 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 157/23 K/BB), with the strikeout rate (38.1%) in particular standing out. Mid-major college hitters had no chance against Gilbert's stuff, and when he's at his best, it's truly premium. He is 6'5" and projectable, throwing in the mid 90's at his best with a very good slider, a curveball, a good changeup, and enough control to make it work. However, there have been times when he has dipped into the low 90's and his stuff has flattened out a bit, which pushes him out of top ten consideration, but a team confident in their ability to bring his best out of him could take him in the middle of the first round. The combination of strikeout stuff, Cape performance, and projectability is very valuable.

4. Jackson Kowar (Florida)
We're on number four and still haven't made it north of southern Alabama, but that's okay. The 6'5" Kowar pitches in the same Gator rotation as Brady Singer, and at times, he has been better than his more well-known counterpart. Kowar also took a step forward statistically this season, going 9-4 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP,  and a 91/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings in the tough SEC. He's a different pitcher than Singer, as his breaking ball, a curve, isn't nearly as advanced, and he relies on a changeup as his primary offspeed pitch. That changeup is excellent, generating tons of swings and misses, and will buy his curveball time to develop. Meanwhile, his fastball already sits in the mid 90's, and with his projectable frame, it could get even faster. His control is just average, and improving that could be his key to success even if he doesn't improve the curve. His draft range is the same as Gilbert's, somewhere in the middle of the first round.

5. Tristan Beck (Stanford)
There is a big gap between Gilbert/Kowar and the next best college righty available, Tristan Beck, but Beck still has the upside of a #3 or #4 starter. The 6'4" Stanford ace was eligible last year and could have been a first round pick if he hadn't hurt his back and missed the season, so he's back again this year and figures to go somewhere just outside the first round. Beck hasn't quite taken the step forward scouts were hoping for this year, finishing 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. His stuff hasn't been quite as sharp as it was his healthy freshman season, though where it is now is still pretty good. He throws in the low 90's without much movement, and his curve is still good despite losing some bite from two years ago. The changeup is his out pitch, and he commands it well, giving him three solid pitches from a clean delivery. His command is pretty good overall, enough to make his stuff play up and get him to the majors, but it's not quite plus and it won't make him an impact starter on its own. His age also is a negative, as he turns 22 just a few weeks after the draft.

6. Sean Hjelle (Kentucky)
The first thing that stands out about Hjelle, and the first thing you'll hear in any scouting report about him, is that he's 6'11". If he makes the majors, he'll tie Jon Rauch as the tallest player in major league history. He's a true string bean, so if he can add some good weight, there is a world of projection. Hjelle currently sits in the low 90's with his fastball and throws a pretty good curveball, and his slider and changeup fill out his arsenal. Despite his exceptional height, he commands his pitches very well, and the downward plane he generates helps all of his pitches play up. There is always injury risk with a player of his size, but so far he has proven durable and his athleticism should help mitigate at least some of those concerns. He finished his junior season 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, striking out 91 and walking 22 in 99 innings mostly against tough SEC hitting, and he figures to go somewhere in the second round.

7. Blaine Knight (Arkansas)
Like Beck, Knight was eligible as a sophomore last season, but he didn't sign when teams failed to meet his lofty price tag. He improved his stats somewhat this year, going 11-0 with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings. There is a little bit of tweener risk here, but Knight does have very good present stuff that includes a low to mid 90's fastball, a pretty good slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which he can land for strikes. One knock against him is his size, because despite his 6'3" height, he is very skinny and probably won't be able to add much weight, meaning possible durability issues down the line. His drafting team will run him out as a starter at first and see how long he can last, though he may ultimately be destined for the bullpen. Like Beck, he is a little older and will turn 22 shortly after the draft, where he is projected to go in the second round.

8. Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest)
Roberts is definitely an interesting arm. The 6'3" righty was also eligible last season, but obviously didn't sign. That year, he was a lights out reliever, posting a 2.19 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 80/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings, showing premium stuff and mediocre command. Wake Forest moved him to the rotation this spring with mixed results, as he finished 5-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 130/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings. His walk rate actually improved and he continued to strike out an absurd number of hitters, but he was hit a bit harder. There is effort in his delivery and his changeup isn't all that advanced, so there is a very good chance he could end up a reliever, but he'd be excellent there. In short spurts, his fastball sits in the mid 90's and his slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, though he loses a few MPH off that fastball as a starter and the slider more plus than plus-plus in long outings. He'll probably go in the second or third round, and his drafting team will likely try him out as a starter, but his home is probably in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combination can be deadly. Like Beck and Knight, he also is old with a June birthday and will be 22 shortly after the draft.

9. Aaron Hernandez (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi)
Of no relation to the deceased ex-football player, Hernandez is a very interesting prospect in his own right. The 6'2" righty throws a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade out as above average, and he has proven that he can maintain that stuff deep into starts. Those are the pros. On the negative side, he missed his entire sophomore season after being ruled academically ineligible to play, and when he came back for his junior year, he was hit harder than he should have been, going 3-5 with a 4.55 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 102/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings in a less competitive Southland Conference. His strikeout rate is promising, but his crouch and drive delivery leads to a favorable angle for hitters to see and attack his pitches. I personally think pro coaching can help him alter that delivery enough to get the most out of his stuff. He did survive the Cape Cod League in a small sample, striking out eleven and walking four in ten innings. He projects anywhere in the second through fourth rounds.

10. Durbin Feltman (Texas Christian)
While Griffin Roberts will probably end up in the bullpen, Durbin Feltman is the only pure relief prospect on this list. His numbers were excellent at TCU, as he put up a 0.74 ERA, a matching 0.74 WHIP, and a 43/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings out of the bullpen. He had this success with a mid to upper 90's fastball that has hit 99 in the past as well as very good slider, despite coming in at just 6'1". The command is there as well, and he could be the first player in this class to reach the major leagues. He projects to come off the board sometime in the second or third rounds, though college relievers can go earlier than expected if a team wants an impact soon.

Others: Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton), Dylan Coleman (Missouri State), Mitchell Kilkenny (Texas A&M), Sean Wymer (TCU), Jonathan Stiever (Indiana)