1-22: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma
2-55: RHP Cole Henry, Louisiana State
2C-71: SS Sammy Infante, Monsignor Pace HS (FL)
3-94: RHP Holden Powell, UCLA
4-123: C Brady Lindsly, Oklahoma
5-153: LHP Mitchell Parker, San Jacinto CC (TX)
The Nationals' draft brand is hard throwing college pitchers with upside, and they nabbed exactly that with their first two picks. They're also usually one to bite early on college relievers, and they did that in the third round with Holden Powell. In all, this draft class had a distinctly Nationals feel to it with four college arms in six picks, and I think they could get some interesting value out of it. My personal favorite pick of the draft was second rounder Cole Henry, though I could see compensation pick Sammy Infante being a real sleeper in this class.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-22: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (my rank: 24)
This is about as on-brand as it gets between a player and a drafting team. Cade Cavalli was a well-known draft prospect at Bixby High School in the Tulsa area in 2017, but he wound up down the road at Oklahoma instead, where he's had a bit of a bumpy ride. Watch him throw a bullpen, though, and you'd be convinced you were seeing a top ten arm. Cavalli has a premium pitcher's body at 6'4", and an exceptionally clean, repeatable delivery. From there, he fires mid 90's fastballs that can climb as high as 98, and he adds two potentially plus breaking balls in a power slider and a downer curveball. He rounds his arsenal off with a solid changeup, and he throws strikes with all four pitches. So how was he available for the Nationals at pick #22? Through three years at Oklahoma, he's an unimpressive 9-7 with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 114/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. He's consistently been hit harder than his stuff says he should be – earlier in his college career, that was because he tended to fall behind in the count and his stuff played down in hitter's counts. As he's progressed, he's filled up the zone more, but his control (ability to throw strikes) remains ahead of his command (ability to hit spots within the zone), and that's led to some too-hittable pitches over the plate. He's trending in the right direction with his command, and that shot him up boards this spring (he struck out 37 to just five walks in 23.2 innings against a tough schedule), but questions still remain about how his stuff will play in pro ball. He doesn't get much deception in that clean delivery, and his fastball can be almost too true, with better hitters being able to square up velocity when it's that straight. The Nationals will have to work with Cavalli to help keep hitters more off balance, but the upside here is tremendous with a full arsenal of deadly weapons to use against hitters coming from a very durable frame (though he has missed time with back problems and a stress reaction in his arm). He signed for $3.03 million, full slot value for the 22nd pick. Pre-draft profile here.
2-55: RHP Cole Henry, Louisiana State (my rank: 44)
Another perfectly on-brand pick for the Nationals. Cole Henry, like Cavalli, was a well-known prospect at Florence High School in northern Alabama, earning top three rounds consideration in 2018. He ended up at LSU instead, and the numbers have been great in his short time there: 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB in 77.1 IP against a tough schedule. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, adding in a power curveball that can look like a true plus pitch with great depth down in the zone. He rounds out his arsenal with a decent changeup, one he has made progress on since high school but which still has a bit further to go. The 6'4" right hander has smoothed out his delivery in college and has been better about repeating it, but there are still times where he loses his arm slot and the Nationals will want to keep him going the trajectory he's on. Right now, like with Cavalli, the control is ahead of the command, but he's trending in the right direction there too. Henry has true impact starter potential due to his size and having two plus pitches, though if he doesn't continue to make the progress he has been making, there is some reliever risk. He would fit well there, but the Nationals are banking on him remaining a starting pitcher, which he definitely has the talent to do. I really like the pick, even if they spent $2 million ($690,000 above slot) to keep him from heading back to Baton Rouge for his junior year. As a draft eligible sophomore who turns 21 in July, he's almost a year younger than Cavalli, who is relatively old for a college junior and turns 22 in August. Pre-draft profile here.
2C-71: SS Sammy Infante, Monsignor Pace HS, FL (my rank: 151)
This pick surprised some, and even though I ranked him 80 spots lower on my list, I'm willing to get on board with it. The Nationals develop this type of player very well – in fact, I actually think they develop young hitters better than pitchers. A product of Monsignor Edward Pace High School in Miami, Sammy Infante has been up and down throughout his prep career, but the shortened spring was definitely an "up" for him. He shows solid power from a nice, leveraged right handed swing, one that produces a lot of force while still staying under control. With added physical development onto his 6'1" frame, you can see Infante hitting for above average power down the line, and while he does show some swing and miss, he was making more consistent contact this spring. Defensively, he'll need to work to stick at shortstop, but he could be above average at third base if he moved over there. Considering that this pick was compensation for losing Anthony Rendon, that would be a nice coincidence if he took over long term there. He's a little old for a high schooler, having turned 19 a few days before I released this article, which does matter. Still, with the upside of a 20 home run bat who can produce solid on-base percentages and net-positive infield defense, the Nationals like what they're getting at the 71st overall pick, and I think he fits in well with the organization. He signed for $1 million, which was $115,800 above slot value.
3-94: RHP Holden Powell, UCLA (my rank: 134)
Judging by the draft ranking, it might appear that I prefer this Holden Powell pick to the Sammy Infante pick. Unfortunately, it doesn't quite work like that, because Infante's upside requires more imagination and I can get behind it with the confidence the Nationals are showing, while Powell's upside is very clear. The UCLA closer is strictly a reliever going forward, though he has quite the track record for the Bruins; since the start of the 2019 season, he has a 1.54 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and an 85/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.1 innings, saving 20 games. In 2020 alone, he struck out 20 of the 35 batters he faced and allowed just five to reach base. The 6' righty from the Central Valley town of Visalia throws a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out at 96, and it plays up because he has a little bit of funk in his delivery. The slider is his out pitch, sitting anywhere from the low to mid 80's and playing up because he can really manipulate its shape and spot it. Sometimes, it can be a softer with more depth, and others it can be sharper with more bite, but either way it's intentional. His command has progressed from decent as an underclassman to above average as a junior, at least in the small sample size. It's all a great and enticing package, but I'm very skeptical of college relievers. You're supposedly buying them for the floor, for the safe bet/right now product they provide rather than the upside, but from Tyler Jay to Zack Burdi to Durbin Feltman, that "safe bet" has proven to be a little bit of an illusion. I'd much prefer to target starters later in the draft, throw them in the bullpen, and see if they take a step forward. That said, Powell does have a very good right-now product, and even though he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until September, he could move relatively quickly. He signed for $500,000, which was $118,200 below slot and just about paid for Sammy Infante's over slot bonus.
4-123: C Brady Lindsly, Oklahoma (unranked)
This pick killed three birds with one stone, as it saved the Nationals significant bonus pool space, reunited first round pick Cade Cavalli with his college catcher, and gave the Nationals a nice prospect. The Fort Worth-area native has been a decent hitter for four years at Oklahoma, slashing .275/.360/.420 with ten home runs and a 112/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 games. He's an average hitter that makes pretty consistent contact, adding in a little bit of pop but nothing that will wow anybody. He does work the strike zone pretty well, as you would expect from a catcher. The calling card is his defense, where he is above average and should have no trouble staying behind the plate. He must have gotten a glowing recommendation from Cavalli, and I'd expect that the two work really well together, which should help Cavalli reach his lofty ceiling. Otherwise, Lindsly profiles pretty clearly as a backup catcher, as he'll likely never hit enough to start but his defense could carry him up to a reserve role. He signed for $20,000, saving the Nationals $444,500 in bonus pool space.
5-153: LHP Mitchell Parker, San Jacinto CC (unranked)
A well known name from a pitching staff that also included Nationals 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge and Cubs 2020 fourth rounder Luke Little, Parker has been an absolute force to be reckoned with on the JUCO circuit, going 11-0 with a 1.43 ERA and a 175/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at San Jac. His 64 strikeouts this year not only led all JUCO pitchers, but would have been enough to lead Division I or Division III as well, and enough for second place in Division II just behind Francis Marion's Josh Bobrowski and his 65 strikeouts. The Albuquerque native is a 6'4" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a big, looping curveball with great depth in addition to a solid splitter. His command is average if perhaps a tick below, but his pitches play up due to high spin rates and some interesting arm action where he pauses mid-delivery. Going forward, he'll have to be careful not to show too much of his grip during that pause. There is some projection left in his frame, so you can imagine him adding a tick or two of velocity, which will likely be the difference as to whether he sticks in the rotation or is forced to the bullpen. As with Cavalli, the Nationals actually signed his catcher, Raymond Torres Jr., out of San Jac as well, so that's interesting. It took $100,000 to sign him away from a Kentucky commitment, which was $246,800 below slot.
Undrafted: 1B Jackson Coutts, Rhode Island (unranked)
Among active major leaguers from the Eastern United States, Coutts could have the northernmost hometown of anybody if he makes it that far. Hailing from Orono, Maine, Coutts played college ball some five hours to the south at Rhode Island (imagine heading five hours south to Rhode Island), where he was having a huge breakout year as a junior with four home runs and a .451/.525/.824 slash line over 13 games. He also held his own in the elite Cape Cod League by hitting .309, but his power didn't quite show up there with just four extra base hits (no home runs) in 30 games. Coutts is a big dude at a listed 6'3" and 230 pounds, and as a first baseman only (who could perhaps handle left field if needed), he'll need to tap that power in pro ball. The Nationals like the upside here and are all in on the bat, as he does a great job of keeping his strikeouts down for a power hitter and he could be a valuable platoon guy down the line.
Undrafted: IF Gio Diaz, St. Mary's (unranked)
Diaz, a Northern California native, was off to a hot start this year for St. Mary's College, slashing .396/.442/.417 with just two strikeouts in 13 games. A bit undersized at 5'11", he's more of a slap hitter than anything else, but he struck out just 37 times in 100 career games, showing elite bat to ball skills at minimum. He profiles as a utility infielder because it's unlikely he'll ever get to even average power – he had just 16 extra base hits during his time in Moraga, all doubles.
Undrafted: 2B Brian Klein, Texas Tech (unranked)
Klein comes from the same hometown of Keller, Texas (in the Fort Worth area) as fourth rounder Brady Lindsly, and he joins the Nationals after a very successful career at Texas Tech: ten home runs, .318/.408/.465, 106/102 K/BB in 171 games. He was off to the best start of his career in 2020, slashing .391/.494/.580 in 19 games. The 5'11" infielder won't wow anybody with tools, but he's a very steady player who is a consistent performer on both sides of the ball. That's a pretty clear utility infield profile to me.
Undrafted: C Raymond Torres Jr., San Jacinto CC, TX (unranked)
Torres caught Mitchell Parker at San Jacinto this year, where he was off to a hot start by slashing .444/.528/.667 across 13 games, including two four hit performances. However, according to an article in The Charlotte Observer, Torres does come with some significant makeup questions. He was a potential top five rounds pick at the IMG Academy in Florida, but he left the school amid work ethic questions and was suspended from the Providence High School baseball team shortly after returning to his hometown of Charlotte. Committed to play at LSU, he didn't have the grades to get into the school and wound up at San Jac. Parker has spoken positively about his growth as a player, but questions certainly remain as to whether he can get out of his own way. If he does grow up a little bit, there is significant ceiling here as a big league catcher.
Showing posts with label Cade Cavalli. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cade Cavalli. Show all posts
Friday, June 26, 2020
Monday, June 8, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Who Could the Nationals Take at #22?
As a Nationals fan, I've put a lot of thought into the direction I'd like to see the Nationals go at pick #22. Predicting who they will take is pretty much guesswork, but as fans, we can look at the most likely options, choose one to latch onto, and hope. For context, these have been the Nationals' last five first round picks:
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Cade Cavalli
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 37/5 K/BB in 23.2 IP
It's been an interesting ride for Cavalli, who remains one of the tougher arms to pin down in terms of projection. He made a lot of noise as a teenager in the Tulsa area and could have gone in the top five rounds out of Bixby High School in 2017, but he made it to campus in Norman and actually played both ways as a freshman and as a sophomore. After hitting six home runs as a freshman, his sophomore season saw him slash .319/.393/.611 with four home runs, but it has always been his arm that has intrigued scouts the most. On the mound, he posted a 3.28 ERA against Oklahoma's tough Big 12 schedule, but his 59/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 60.1 innings showed a lot of room for growth. Facing a tough non-conference slate to start 2020, he's put up a 4.18 ERA, but he's pitched better than the ERA says with a 37/5 strikeout to walk ratio and four of his eleven earned runs coming in the second inning of his start against San Diego State.
Watching him throw a bullpen, Cavalli easily looks like a top-15 pick. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his power slider dives across the plate and his more downer curveball gives hitters a different look. Additionally, he's shown the makings of a good changeup, giving him a full arsenal with which to attack hitters. Everything comes from a very clean, easy delivery, and at 6'4", he looks like a starting pitcher. He was finally beginning to put it together in 2020, as evidenced by striking out eleven and walking none over five innings of work against a stacked Arkansas lineup on February 28th (though he did give up three runs on six hits). The biggest difference between 2019 and 2020 has been Cavalli's control, as his walk rate dropped from 13.1% to 5.2%. However, his control (ability to throw strikes) remains well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots).
As a sophomore, Cavalli tended to get hit harder than his stuff should indicate because he was often behind in the count. Meanwhile, in a small sample as a junior, he was generally tougher to hit but still got himself into trouble when he left pitches over the plate. That's a step in the right direction, but there is still work to be done. His fastball is relatively straight and in part due to his clean arm action, there's not much deception, so hitters have less trouble squaring up his 94-96. Going forward, he'll need to find a better way to keep hitters off balance, be that adding some deception to his delivery, employing more two seam or cut fastballs, or getting better about using his full array of secondary pitches to set his fastball up more effectively. Of course, improving his in-zone command would be very helpful as well. Additionally, despite his clean, easy delivery and athletic frame, he has a troubling injury history that dates back to his high school days, though there are no major injuries on the books. As one of the oldest players with first round aspirations (he turns 22 in August), he conceivably has less time to waste on the injured list if he wants to stay on track with his development.
Cavalli's complicated profile has given scouts pause for a while now, but he may have pitched just well enough in 2020 to make the risk easier to swallow. He checks most of the boxes you want to see (velocity, secondaries, frame, delivery), and his control is trending towards allowing another box to be checked. Meanwhile, the question marks still sit next to his name in the command, durability, and performance boxes, but all three were trending in the right direction in 2020. That has pushed his name firmly into the first round conversation, and there is a lot of chatter that he could go closer to the middle of the round than the back. The ceiling here is obviously that of a frontline starter, but with considerable risk. But hey, you're drafting him for how he'll pitch in the future, not for how he's pitched in the past.
2020 game footage vs Arkansas (home plate view)
2020 game footage (CF view)
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 8/14/1998.
2020 Stats: 1-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 37/5 K/BB in 23.2 IP
It's been an interesting ride for Cavalli, who remains one of the tougher arms to pin down in terms of projection. He made a lot of noise as a teenager in the Tulsa area and could have gone in the top five rounds out of Bixby High School in 2017, but he made it to campus in Norman and actually played both ways as a freshman and as a sophomore. After hitting six home runs as a freshman, his sophomore season saw him slash .319/.393/.611 with four home runs, but it has always been his arm that has intrigued scouts the most. On the mound, he posted a 3.28 ERA against Oklahoma's tough Big 12 schedule, but his 59/35 strikeout to walk ratio in 60.1 innings showed a lot of room for growth. Facing a tough non-conference slate to start 2020, he's put up a 4.18 ERA, but he's pitched better than the ERA says with a 37/5 strikeout to walk ratio and four of his eleven earned runs coming in the second inning of his start against San Diego State.
Watching him throw a bullpen, Cavalli easily looks like a top-15 pick. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his power slider dives across the plate and his more downer curveball gives hitters a different look. Additionally, he's shown the makings of a good changeup, giving him a full arsenal with which to attack hitters. Everything comes from a very clean, easy delivery, and at 6'4", he looks like a starting pitcher. He was finally beginning to put it together in 2020, as evidenced by striking out eleven and walking none over five innings of work against a stacked Arkansas lineup on February 28th (though he did give up three runs on six hits). The biggest difference between 2019 and 2020 has been Cavalli's control, as his walk rate dropped from 13.1% to 5.2%. However, his control (ability to throw strikes) remains well ahead of his command (ability to hit spots).
As a sophomore, Cavalli tended to get hit harder than his stuff should indicate because he was often behind in the count. Meanwhile, in a small sample as a junior, he was generally tougher to hit but still got himself into trouble when he left pitches over the plate. That's a step in the right direction, but there is still work to be done. His fastball is relatively straight and in part due to his clean arm action, there's not much deception, so hitters have less trouble squaring up his 94-96. Going forward, he'll need to find a better way to keep hitters off balance, be that adding some deception to his delivery, employing more two seam or cut fastballs, or getting better about using his full array of secondary pitches to set his fastball up more effectively. Of course, improving his in-zone command would be very helpful as well. Additionally, despite his clean, easy delivery and athletic frame, he has a troubling injury history that dates back to his high school days, though there are no major injuries on the books. As one of the oldest players with first round aspirations (he turns 22 in August), he conceivably has less time to waste on the injured list if he wants to stay on track with his development.
Cavalli's complicated profile has given scouts pause for a while now, but he may have pitched just well enough in 2020 to make the risk easier to swallow. He checks most of the boxes you want to see (velocity, secondaries, frame, delivery), and his control is trending towards allowing another box to be checked. Meanwhile, the question marks still sit next to his name in the command, durability, and performance boxes, but all three were trending in the right direction in 2020. That has pushed his name firmly into the first round conversation, and there is a lot of chatter that he could go closer to the middle of the round than the back. The ceiling here is obviously that of a frontline starter, but with considerable risk. But hey, you're drafting him for how he'll pitch in the future, not for how he's pitched in the past.
2020 game footage vs Arkansas (home plate view)
2020 game footage (CF view)
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