Showing posts with label Jackson Linn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jackson Linn. Show all posts

Thursday, September 2, 2021

The Top 12 High School Position Player Prospects Headed to Campus

Last year was the year of the true freshman bat. Dylan Crews (LSU), Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech), Enrique Bradfield (Vanderbilt), Yohandy Morales (Miami), Jacob Berry (Arizona), Daniel Susac (Arizona), Kyle Teel (Virginia), and plenty of others put up huge seasons that made big impacts on their teams right away. All but Berry were included in my edition of the top twelve position player prospects reaching campus last year, so now it's time to look ahead to the next wave of freshmen. Keep in mind that this list is based off my 2021 draft board, not who I think will have the biggest immediate impact.

1. SS Peyton Stovall, Arkansas (Haughton HS, LA). 2021 rank: #25.
Peyton Stovall was a huge helium name early in the spring, absolutely obliterating northern Louisiana pitching with home run after home run and never letting up throughout the season. That thrust him all the way into the first round conversation, but the deluge of high school bats in that range of the draft gave teams a lot of options, and in the end he didn't get the signing bonus he was looking for and pulled his name from the draft late. At Arkansas, he'll join a lineup that returns most of its core pieces, so it may be a bit tough to break through that crowded infield and find playing time initially. But we are talking about a special bat that should have no trouble making the big jump to SEC pitching, and even if he takes on more of a reserve role in 2022, he should be right in the middle of things by 2023 and could come out a first rounder in 2024. Stovall has supreme feel for the barrel from the left side of the plate, showing in-game power to all fields even out of a smaller 6' frame. He adeptly recognizes spin and that makes me confident in his ability to make the transition, so he'll maximize that power wherever he goes and likely post high on-base percentages. The Shreveport-area native is listed as a shortstop but lacks the athleticism to stick there in pro ball, and he may play a whole host of positions in Fayetteville as he looks to break into that loaded lineup. Long term, he probably projects as a bat-first second baseman that can mash 20+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages in the majors.

2. OF/QB/WR Will Taylor, Clemson (Dutch Fork HS, SC). 2021 rank: #29.
The Pirates may have picked off Clemson QB commit Bubba Chandler with a $3 million signing bonus, but Dabo Swinney will still get a two-sport star into his QB room in Will Taylor, who may have to move to wide receiver given the strength of that program. And that's all I know about football, so we'll move onto baseball. Long known to scouts due to his athleticism, Taylor found further helium this spring with a solid senior season, his first at Dutch Fork High School in the Columbia suburbs after transferring from Ben Lippen High School. As you might expect, he stands out for his plus-plus speed and could find his way into Clemson's center field role rather quickly. You'd expect him to be rather raw on the baseball field considering his split-focus, but he performed well on the summer showcase circuit last year and carried that over to an even better spring this year, so scouts are very confident in the hit tool. He's not a prototypical power hitter at six feet tall, but his loose right handed swing and strong feel for the barrel allow him to maximize his twitchy strength and put balls over the fence. Taylor will probably always be hit over power, but it's still a very well rounded profile. Of course, once he gets on base, you know he'll be looking to disrupt the game and run, and all together the profile had numerous teams interested in the middle of the first round this year. Clemson has a strong baseball program but it's not quite an Arkansas, UCLA, or Vanderbilt like many of the players on this list find themselves walking into, so we could see him playing every day right out of the gate. The Tigers have produced some strong bats in recent years like Seth Beer, Logan Davidson, and James Parker, and Taylor has a chance to beat all of their draft positions in 2024.

3. SS Alex Mooney, Duke (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI). 2021 rank: #49.
Duke is playing some of its best baseball ever right now, and after making a super regional in 2019 and a furious run to a #2 seed in the Knoxville regional in 2021, they have another reason to celebrate because they landed one of the top high schoolers in the country. Alex Mooney was always rumored to be pretty keen on heading down to Durham, and as it turns out, he was. There's a great combination of feel and athleticism here that should enable him to crack the starting lineup pretty early on, and with starting shortstop Ethan Murray gone to the Brewers (fifth round), it looks like he'll get that opportunity. Mooney is a relatively advanced hitter at the plate that chooses good pitches to hit and sprays line drives around the field, and as he's matured he's started generating more power from his 6'1" frame. His swing is conducive to tapping that power in games, so overall we have a very well-rounded profile in the box. The Detroit-area native is a good athlete that should continue to play shortstop at Duke, and if he can continue to build his game and get a bit more explosive, he has a chance to stick there in pro ball. If not, his steady glove and strong arm should fit well at third base. Mooney has ACC performer written all over him, and because he's very old for the class and already turned 19 before the draft, he'll want to get to it quickly as he'll be eligible again in 2023 after just two years in Durham.

4. SS Cody Schrier, UCLA (JSerra Catholic HS, CA). 2021 rank: #55.
After losing ten players to the draft in 2021, including shortstop and first round pick Matt McLain (Reds), UCLA is going to need some reinforcements in 2022. Lucky for them, they're pulling in a star-studded recruiting class that ranks among the best I've ever seen, and the top player in that group is coincidentally a shortstop to replace McLain. Cody Schrier has been a popular name on the showcase circuit for a while now, displaying premium strength and athleticism combined with a strong track record of performance. He has a chance for plus power from the right side given his whippy swing and the strength in his 6'1" frame, and he's already begun tapping it with a very strong season in the Southern California high school ranks this spring. While he finds that barrel pretty consistently, the UCLA coaching staff will want to work on smoothing him out a bit and getting him a little more consistent in his mechanics, as the swing can get a little long at times. In the field, his strong arm and athleticism should keep him in the infield long term and into pro ball, though he may not always be a shortstop because his actions can get a bit clunky at times. That shortstop position is open in Westwood, but you know he'll have stiff competition for it at one of the top baseball programs in the country. He may bounce around a bit early in his college career and could ultimately settle at second base, third base, or the outfield.

5. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (Madison Central HS, MS). 2021 rank: #71.
Braden Montgomery will travel a long way for college, heading from Madison Central High School in the Jackson, Mississippi suburbs up to Silicon Valley to play for the Cardinal. He was a two-way star back home and has a chance to continue doing that at Stanford, and at this point he's talented enough to go pro as either an outfielder or a pitcher. Most scouts prefer him just a little bit as a hitter, where he shows strong plate discipline and feel for the barrel from both sides of the plate. He's still growing into his 6'2" frame but has been tapping more and more power, and while he's probably average in that regard for now, he could end up above average down the road. That's a great profile that will play well in the Pac-12, with a chance to be a lineup anchor with high on-base percentages and some pop in Palo Alto. If he does tap that power more often in college like he's capable of, he could easily hit his way into the first round. Montgomery also has a strong arm and shows good instincts in the outfield, where he profiles as a plus defender in right. We'll focus on his pitching in the next article highlighting pitchers, but he shows a three pitch mix and repeatable delivery that will get him into the weekend rotation, if not in 2022 then likely by 2023. He is said to have strong makeup and work hard at his craft, adding to his appeal. Stanford is returning the bulk of their College World Series team to campus in 2022, which may make it difficult to find playing time early on, but his ability to do it all will certainly lend itself well to his chances of seeing consistent time in the field sooner rather than later.

6. OF Michael Robertson, Florida (Venice HS, FL). 2021 rank: #77.
The Florida outfield is about to get really interesting, with Jud Fabian unexpectedly returning, Sterlin Thompson entering his first draft-eligible season, and star recruit Michael Robertson pricing himself out of the draft and headed to campus. Robertson himself has a very interesting profile, and with the right development, he could end up a first round pick come 2023, where he'll likely be eligible as a sophomore because he's old for his class. He stands out first and foremost for his plus-plus speed, some of the best in the class and comparable to the #2 man on this list, Will Taylor. While Fabian seemingly has a vice-like grip on center field for 2022, the position will likely belong to Robertson in 2023 and he'll continue to man it in pro ball once he gets there. For now, the Venice, Florida native employs a slappy, ground ball and line drive-heavy approach, which really helps him deploy that speed and keep defenders on their toes. On the surface, it's a similar profile to Enrique Bradfield (now with Vanderbilt) a year ago, but Bradfield will never be a power threat and Robertson just might if he's developed correctly. He grades out deceptively well in his ability to channel his strength, whip the barrel through the zone, and generate more force than you'd think from his skinny 6'1" frame, so if the Gators coaching staff decides to change up his approach to be more power conscious, we could be talking about a five tool player. This is a kid who could come out after two years in Gainesville with a different, even better profile. Even if he keeps his current approach, Robertson could find himself in the leadoff spot sooner rather than later for Florida.

7. OF Jackson Linn, Tulane (Cambridge Rindge & Latin HS, MA). 2021 rank: #82.
Jackson Linn wasn't on every team's radar, but others liked him very, very high in the draft and there were even some rumors linking him to teams in the back of the first round. Ultimately, Linn held a very firm commitment to Tulane (unsurprising given he went to a 373 year old high school across the street from Harvard), and he'll head down to the Crescent City instead and we'll see whether the hype was for real. His bat is unproven against higher level pitching, but the raw ability is extremely impressive. He can absolutely crush a baseball with some of the best exit velocities in the class, whipping his bat through the zone with tremendous force and loft from a strong 6'3" frame. It's the kind of swing and plus-plus raw power that could produce forty home runs in a season, but obviously he'll need to tap it in games for that to happen. Teams aren't sold on that yet, as he did swing and miss a fair amount even against mediocre Boston-area pitching. That's why he's headed to Tulane, where he will get an opportunity to show that his raw power can translate to game power, and at the mid-major program he may have more of an opportunity to work his way into the lineup quicker. There are a lot of teams who are very interested in that transition. Linn also runs fairly well and has a cannon arm that can pump fastballs into the upper 90's in short stints, adding to the physical upside.

8. SS Davis Diaz, Vanderbilt (Acalanes HS, CA). 2021 rank: #83.
Vanderbilt may have lost position player commits Jordan Lawlar (Diamondbacks) and Joshua Baez (Cardinals) early in the draft, but they'll still land one of the crown jewels of another strong recruiting class in Davis Diaz, who will follow the California to Nashville pipeline most recently traversed by CJ Rodriguez and Spencer Jones. Diaz may have a hard time finding playing time immediately as Vanderbilt returns the majority of last year's College World Series lineup, with fellow shortstop Carter Young projecting as the top 2022 draft prospect on the team currently. Even if he does have to wait his turn, the Oakland-area native has the broad skillset that will surely help him make a significant impact on the program once he gets his opportunity. Diaz makes a ton of hard contact from the right side of the plate, and even though he's smaller at a skinny 5'11", his innate ability to fling the barrel through the zone and generate force could help him play up to average power. He's a grinder in the field that lacks the traditional physicality and explosiveness for shortstop, but may be able to stick because of his feel for the position. If not, he could profile at any number of positions including second base, third base, or the outfield, and he even caught some this spring. It's a profile a little reminiscent of Austin Martin if we want to keep it at Vanderbilt, but of course Martin had sublime feel for the barrel that was unmatched by really anyone in his draft class. Diaz has a long way to go before he ends up like Martin, but it's a similar mold.

9. OF Malakhi Knight, UCLA (Marysville-Getchell HS, WA). 2021 rank: #85.
Malakhi Knight will join Cody Schrier and plenty of others on his way down to UCLA, part of an incoming freshman class that has a chance to be very special. He'll bring above average power to Westwood, a product of big strength and leverage in his 6'3" frame. It's a bit of a unique operation in which he starts upright and brings the barrel almost straight down to the ball, but still manages to put loft behind it. He's tapped that power in games against high level pitching, though the swing can get inconsistent at times and he's prone to swinging and missing when he gets tied up or off balance. Knight is also a good runner that can turn in some plus run times, which gives him a chance to stick in center field if he develops well as an outfielder, while his strong arm would make him a very good piece to have in right field. The Seattle-area native could develop in any number of ways once he gets to UCLA, with a very good shot to be one of the Pac-12's best hitters over the next few years or battle inconsistency if the transition does not go well. He'll definitely be a priority follow on the West Coast with a chance to be a real impact player in pro ball as well.

10. OF Chase Mason, Nebraska (Viborg-Hurley HS, SD). 2021 rank: #109.
Chase Mason is a very similar player to Jackson Linn, with the main difference being that Linn attended high school across the street from the Harvard Yard in Cambridge while Mason is from Hurley, South Dakota, a map dot of 415 residents about 25 miles outside Sioux Falls. Like Linn, Mason is an absolute beast, packing a ton of strength into his 6'5" frame that looks more like a linebacker than a baseball player (and he played quarterback at Viborg-Hurley). As you can imagine, he has tremendous raw power that produces batting practice home runs up there with anybody in the class. Whether that will play up in games is anybody's guess, as he didn't face very strong competition out on the South Dakota prairie and still managed to swing and miss more than evaluators would have liked. It's a profile somewhat reminiscent of another power hitter from a tiny Dakota map dot, North Dakotan Travis Hafner, except for one key difference: Mason has consistently plus speed that can even be clocked as plus-plus at times. Imagine Pronk being a basestealing threat. Combine his speed with a cannon arm, and you have a chance for a plus defender to go with that plus-plus raw power. At Nebraska, his hit tool will be very much put to the test, and he has a chance to really explode if he lives up to it. Evaluators were not comfortable enough to sign him away from that commitment, so we'll see if he can make them second guess themselves.

11. SS Michael Braswell, South Carolina (Campbell HS, GA). 2021 rank: #125.
Michael Braswell is a really fun one, someone I expect to play a pretty prominent role at South Carolina over the next few seasons. He does a lot of things well on the field giving off the impression of someone ready to contribute against SEC competition. Braswell makes a lot of contact from the right side, showing a strong approach and the ability to manipulate the barrel to spray line drives all over the field. A twitchy athlete, he gets into great hitting positions and while his power is below average for now, he has a swing that should be able to tap whatever he grows into as he fills out his 6'2" frame. That gives the Atlanta-area product a chance for average power. He shows springy actions at shortstop and could even be ready to replace George Callil right away, or if not, find a role somewhere on the infield. With an extremely steady glove and plenty of arm strength, he not only profiles as a shortstop in Columbia, but in pro ball as well. Expect Braswell to get on base regularly for the Gamecocks while gradually growing into some power, then in pro ball he could hit 10-15 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages. One thing he lacks is speed, even if it doesn't affect his ability at shortstop, so he may not fit that prototypical leadoff role.

12. OF Thomas DiLandri, Texas Christian (Palo Verde HS, NV). 2021 rank: #126.
Thomas DiLandri has plenty of tools and showed flashes of greatness on the summer showcase circuit, at his best performing right up there with the first rounders. However, his inconsistency led teams to be a little more cautious with their bonus offers, and ultimately he'll head to TCU instead to prove his tools. DiLandri is a great athlete with lots of lean strength in his 6'3" frame, showing potential plus power from the right side that he has tapped in games against good pitching. He has performed well against some of the better arms in the class, but his swing can be inconsistent in games and he can lapse into periods of high strikeouts. In the field, the Las Vegas product is an above average runner with a plus arm that may stick in center field or at least be an asset in right field, so he really brings the whole package as a player. If DiLandri can pull it all together and play to his potential, he'll likely be one of the best all-around players in the Big 12 and make the teams that passed over him look like fools. There's always the flip side, though, if he continues to be plagued by inconsistency and ends up a poor man's Jud Fabian. They're excited to have him in Fort Worth, as this is what a baseball player looks like if you draw him up and he could very well be a first round pick in 2024.

Others:
#127 3B Tommy White, North Carolina State (IMG Academy, FL)
#132 SS Eddie Saldivar, Long Beach State (San Joaquin Memorial HS, CA)
UR OF Lorenzo Carrier, Miami (Appoquinimink HS, DE, pulled himself from the draft)
#143 OF Tyree Reed, Oregon State (American Canyon HS, OR)
#150 OF Camden Hayslip, Alabama (Friendship Christian HS, TN)
#152 SS Drake Varnado, Arkansas (IMG Academy, FL)
#153 2B Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State (Thousand Oaks HS, CA)
#160 C Rene Lastres, Florida (Calvary Christian HS, FL)

Wednesday, July 14, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Houston Astros

Full list of draftees

For the second year in a row, the Astros didn't pick in the first two rounds due to their sign stealing scandal. However, they still pulled together a solid class headlined by one of the best high school hitters in the country, Tyler Whitaker. After following up with another high school hitter in Alex Ulloa, they went on a run of college players to afford them and I think they did a good job with that. Their first big money saver, Chayce McDermott, has a chance to be the best pitcher in this Astros draft class. They also brought in two Houston natives in George Ranch High School alum Spencer Arrighetti as well as Klein Forest alum Bryant Salgado. Tyler Whitaker has to be my favorite pick of course, as that's fringe-first round value in the third round, but my next favorite pick was McDermott.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

3-87: SS Tyler Whitaker, Bishop Gorman HS [NV]. My rank: #44.
For the second year in a row, the Astros reached up the board and grabbed a falling high schooler to presumably pay him an above-slot bonus, getting top-50 value. Tyler Whitaker was being rumored as high as the late first round, but ultimately tumbled when some of his suitors went in other directions while others did not want to meet his high asking price. The Astros will, however, and because of that they're getting a really good baseball player. The Las Vegas native streamlined his swing in the spring to great results, tapping his notable raw power much more consistently and handling relatively advanced pitching in and around southern Nevada. We're now looking at at least an average hit tool with above average power, all coming from an ideal 6'4" frame that he really gets the most out of. A solid athlete, he has a chance to play center field at the next level and his strong arm will make him an asset in right field if he ultimately ends up there, though interestingly the Astors announced him as a shortstop. I liked the Alex Santos pick a lot last year, and I like this one even better. Slot value here is $689,300, but it will take considerably more to pull him away from an Arizona commitment. If he does head to school (which he won't if he was drafted this high), he'll be eligible again in 2023 because he turns 19 in August.

4-117: SS Alex Ulloa, Calvary Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #193.
For the second pick in a row, the Astros grabbed a high school shortstop, though Alex Ulloa actually played shortstop for his high school team. That high school team that included first rounder Andrew Painter, fifth rounder Irv Carter, and another very draftable catcher in Rene Lastres who priced himself out. Ulloa does a lot of things well, showing a profile with very few holes in it. Just 5'11", he packs more strength than you'd expect into his smaller frame, with a knack for finding the barrel and the natural bat speed and leverage to produce average power. The south Florida native also shows the ability to be an average shortstop, elevating the way his bat profiles. While he lacks the high ceiling of a guy like Tyler Whitaker, Ulloa's broad skillset and sneaky power make him a safer pick with some upside as well, and one who may not be terribly expensive here in the fourth round despite a commitment to Oklahoma State. Slot value is $492,700.

4C-132: RHP Chayce McDermott, Ball State. My rank: #131.
With their compensation for losing George Springer, the Astros broke from the prep hitter demographic and drafted their first money-saving college arm in Chayce McDermott, who will likely sign below slot due to the fact that he tuns 23 in August. Despite the fact that he helps Houston afford Whitaker and Ulloa, McDermott is a valuable piece in his own right, one that has a chance to be an impact arm at the big league level. The Anderson, Indiana product broke out in 2021 with a 3.05 ERA and a 125/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings against Ball State's MAC-based schedule, showing that while he likely projects as a reliever, there is starter upside. He has a ton of arm strength helped immensely by great utilization of his 6'3" frame, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch as high as 98. McDermott also employs a sharp curveball that flashes plus at its best, and he can work it into a slider as well. He gets low into his delivery and rides off his back leg extremely well, putting exceptional ride onto his fastball and enabling it to play very well off his breaking balls. For now, he projects as a reliever due to his fringy changeup and command, as well as his age and relatively high effort delivery, but he does have a chance to start if he can improve either his changeup or command. McDermott is a great athlete and his brother, Sean McDermott, signed with the NBA's Memphis Grizzlies in 2020 as an undrafted free agent out of Butler. Slot value is $426,600, and as I mentioned he will likely sign for less than that.

6-178: RHP Spencer Arrighetti, Louisiana-Lafayette. Unranked.
I always like to highlight at least one local player when doing these, and we got one with ULL's Spencer Arrighetti, a right hander who grew up in Katy and attended Cinco Ranch High School in Houston's western suburbs. Arrighetti started off at TCU but transferred to Navarro JC in Corsicana after an unremarkable freshman season, then hopped over the state line to Lafayette to play for the Ragin' Cajuns. There, the 6'2" righty blossomed into an ace, putting up a 3.12 ERA and a 91/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.2 innings. He has a very loose, athletic delivery that enables him to fill up the strike zone, attacking hitters with a fastball right around 90 and an average curve and changeup. The Astros like the way his body works and even if he doesn't have the traditional projectable frame, they should be able to help his stuff tick up. It's a combination of a nice sleeper pick as well as a hometown pick. Slot value is $277,100 and I don't expect him to exceed that.

7-208: OF Joey Loperfido, Duke. Unranked.
ACC fans will be very familiar with this pick, as Joey Loperfido appeared in 170 games over four years at Duke and saved his best season for last, slashing .374/.473/.612 with eight home runs, twelve stolen bases, and a 50/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games this year. At a lanky 6'4", he's fun to project on, with the chance to do a lot of little things to help the Astros win. He's an above average runner with a consistent track record of hitting against good arms, and due to his size, his fringe-average power has a chance to become true average in pro ball with added strength. The Philadelphia-area native can play all over the field, and while he's not necessarily a plus defender anywhere, he can get the job done in center field or take ground balls at pretty much any infield position except shortstop. The upside here is a super-utility type with a chance to play everyday if he can find a consistent power stroke. Slot value is $216,600, but because Loperfido is already 22, he'll likely sign for less.

12-358: RHP Rhett Kouba, Dallas Baptist. Unranked.
This is a fun one. Kouba didn't receive much national attention, but he was a favorite of local scouts and brings a nice package from a slightly undersized 6' frame. The righty from just outside Oklahoma City sits in the low 90's with his running fastball, getting up to 96 at times, and despite his size he shows the durability to hold that velocity. He also adds a slider that flashes above average, which is a secondary pitch for him behind that fastball. He mainly goes off those two pitches and attacks the strike zone, leading to low walk totals. Some might see his size and lack of a consistent changeup and point him to the bullpen, but Kouba is on an upward trajectory and has the compact strength to work his way up as a back-end starter. His 2021 line for Dallas Baptist came out to a 2.77 ERA and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings.

13-388: 2B Kobe Kato, Arizona. Unranked.
In an Arizona lineup full of mashers like Jacob Berry, Daniel Susac, and Ryan Holgate, Kobe Kato was the quiet, consistent on-base guy you might not have heard about as much. The Hawaii native was on base at least once in 58 of the Wildcats' 63 games this year, slashing .350/.460/.469 with more walks (43) than strikeouts (34). At a very skinny 6'1", Kato does not hit for much power at all, but he makes up for his lack of brute strength with a quick bat and exceptional barrel-to-ball skills that enable him to spray the ball to the gaps consistently. He should have no problem handling pro pitching and could move relatively quickly, though his ceiling is somewhat limited to due that lack of power.

14-418: RHP Bryant Salgado, Oregon State. Unranked.
Believe it or not, this one is actually another hometown pick. Bryant Salgado grew up in Houston and attended Klein Forest High School up in the cities northwestern suburbs, then began his college career at San Jacinto JC. Salgado then transferred out to Oregon State, where he was a valuable member of the bullpen this year and put up a 1.01 ERA and a 27/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.2 innings. It's definitely a relief profile in pro ball, with the 5'11" righty sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching 97 while adding a slider that can be a wipeout pitch at times. Due to his size, fringy command, and high effort delivery, I don't see him starting in pro ball, but he could be a power arm coming out of the Houston bullpen in a few years. Another fun hometown guy to root for.

20-598: OF Jackson Linn, Cambridge Rindge & Latin HS [MA]. My rank: #82.
It's highly unlikely that Jackson Linn signs here, unless something crazy happens and the Astros end up with leftover bonus money because Tyler Whitaker doesn't sign or something. I'll be brief. Linn is a Boston kid who hasn't been seen much against top competition, but he produces crazy data from his right handed swing. He hits the ball ridiculously hard, in fact harder than almost anybody in the high school class, and can also hit 98 on the mound. He's going to head down to the bayou regardless, as he's committed to play at Tulane and could be their best hitter since Kody Hoese, if not better.