Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Verlander. Show all posts

Saturday, October 8, 2022

2022 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Stat line: 62 HR, .311/.425/.686, 16 SB, 207 wRC+, 11.4 fWAR in 157 games
All due respect to Shohei Ohtani, seriously. I cannot emphasize enough how incredible he is, and if he hits and pitches at a high level every year, I have no problem with him winning the MVP every year. It should take a truly historic season to top an ace pitcher/middle of the order hitter, and unfortunately for Shohei, that's just what Aaron Judge provided this year. We all know his 62 home runs are the most by a hitter since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa hit 73 and 64, respectively, in 2001, as well as the most home runs ever by an American League hitter. But not only that, his .686 slugging percentage was the highest in a non-shortened season since J.D. Martinez slugged .690 in 2017, while his 1.111 OPS was the highest since prime Albert Pujols reached 1.115 in 2008. What's more is that he did all this in a year where offense was down across the board, so his 207 wRC+ made him the first member of the 200 club since Barry Bonds in 2004. Throw in very solid outfield defense, and Aaron Judge's 11.4 fWAR was the seventeenth highest total in MLB history, again the highest since Barry Bonds in 2004. Only eight different players – Bonds, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Ty Cobb, and Honus Wagner – have ever topped that number, and only Bonds and Mantle did so since integration. Overall, he led the American League this year in home runs, RBI (131), runs scored (133), walks (111), total bases (391), on-base percentage (.425), slugging percentage, OPS, wRC+, and WAR, and many of those weren't even close. Judge hit for tremendous power and got on base at a top-of-the-league clip in a year where offense was down across the board, threw in solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, and put up an all time great season. Shohei Ohtani is unbelievable, but there is no denying what Aaron Judge did this year is legendary.

Runner-up: RHP/DH Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 34 HR, .273/.356/.519, 11 SB, 142 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR in 157 games
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
I am of the belief that if Shohei Ohtani plays at this level every year, then he should win the MVP every year, and he would have this year if Aaron Judge didn't hit 62 home runs and throw up eleven-plus WAR. A year ago, he deservedly won the AL MVP after posting a 3.18 ERA over 130.1 innings and a 151 wRC+ over 158 games as a hitter. This year, he dropped that ERA nearly a run to 2.33, threw 35.2 additional innings, and maintained nearly the same wRC+ at 142 over 157 games as a hitter. All told, he was probably even better this year than he was last year. Just isolating his bat, he was the American League's seventh best hitter by wRC+, ahead of stars like Rafael Devers (141), Carlos Correa (140), Jose Ramirez (139), Alex Bregman (136), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (132). His 34 home runs also placed third in the league and despite spending all that time on the mound, he still stepped to the plate 666 times, ninth most in the AL. And he still found the time to steal eleven bases. Flip over to the mound, and his numbers were perhaps even more impressive. He accumulated 5.6 fWAR as a pitcher, good for third in the AL behind Justin Verlander (6.1) and Kevin Gausman (5.7), while his 2.33 ERA finished fourth and his 2.40 FIP came in second. So we are talking about perhaps a top ten hitter and a top five pitcher in the league – nobody will ever do that again. In fact, if some player comes around and so much as posts an ERA in the 4's with a league average bat, that would be incredible, but we wouldn't see it that way because Ohtani has spoiled us.

Honorable mention: 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Stat line: 28 HR, .300/.387/.533, 18 SB, 164 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 141 games
I went back and forth, back and forth on this third spot between Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez, who had extremely similar seasons as all-around well above average hitters with some speed and solid if unspectacular gloves on the infield dirt. Altuve was clearly the better hitter, as he finished 20, 32, and 19 points, respectively, ahead of Ramirez in the three triple slash categories of batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, while his 164 wRC+ dwarfed Ramirez's very respectable 139. However, Ramirez also played in 16 more games than Altuve, missing just five Guardians games to Altuve's 21. I initially leaned Altuve due to the bat, moved over to Ramirez when I looked closer and decided that his 16 extra games were enough to overcome the offensive gap, then came back to Altuve when I looked at how their production was spread out throughout the year. Ramirez came out of the gate extremely hot, slashing .342/.411/.722 in April and holding a .288/.368/.576 slash line through the first half, but he gradually slowed down throughout the season as his OPS dropped in every month besides October and he hit just .269/.339/.439 in the second half as his teammates stepped up to put the finishing touches on the AL Central title run. Altuve, meanwhile, was a non-factor in April as he missed time with a hamstring injury and didn't hit much when he was on the field, but once he got over that and found his groove, there was no turning back. From May onwards, he was one of the best hitters in baseball as he slashed .310/.396/.554 and picked up all 6.6 of his fWAR – the third most in baseball in that stretch, behind only Aaron Judge's 10.4 and Paul Goldschmidt's 6.8. Wins in April count just as much as wins in September, but there's something to be said about momentum. Altuve was a non-factor in April and was excellent from May onwards, while Ramirez was exceptional to start the season and gradually slowed down.

Others
3B Jose Ramirez (Guardians): 29 HR, .280/.355/.514, 20 SB, 139 wRC+, 6.2 fWAR in 157 games
DH Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 37 HR, .306/.406/.613, 1 SB, 185 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games
RHP Justin Verlander (Astros): 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
3B Alex Bregman (Astros): 23 HR, .259/.366/.454, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 155 games
2B Andres Gimenez (Guardians): 17 HR, .297/.371/.466, 20 SB, 140 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 146 games

National League MVP

Winner: 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 30 HR, .293/.358/.533, 5 SB, 151 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR in 148 games
If you look at the raw offensive numbers for Nolan Arenado, you may not be overly impressed. His .381 wOBA would not stand out in most seasons, but offense was down across MLB in 2022 and it actually came out to the fourth best mark in the National League, and just barely behind Manny Machado's third place .382. He didn't actually lead the NL in any individual stat, but in addition to finishing fourth in wOBA he was also second in fWAR, third in slugging percentage, third in doubles, fourth in wRC+, fourth in OPS, and fifth in extra base hits (73). He did all that while finishing with the third lowest strikeout rate in the league at 11.6%, behind only contact artists Jeff McNeil and Nico Hoerner – in fact, you can throw in Miguel Rojas right behind him and the other three names in the top four combined for just 25 home runs to his 30. Arenado's combination of power and elite ability to put the ball in play was not matched this year, and that's all just in the bat. We all know that he is also one of the best defensive third basemen in the game, sucking up everything that comes his way at the hot corner and turning surefire infield singles or down the line extra base hits into outs at first base. Per Statcast, his 15 outs above average were second among all NL third basemen behind only Pittsburgh's Ke'Bryan Hayes, if you want confirmation. Take that bat in a down year for offense combined with the elite glove, and you can make a pretty strong case that no National League player was better than Nolan Arenado in 2022.

Runner-up: 3B Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 32 HR, .298/.366/.531, 9 SB, 152 wRC+, 7.4 fWAR in 150 games
One man did have a nearly identical season to Arenado, and that's Manny Machado. Like Arenado, Machado is an elite defensive third baseman that provides significant value with his glove. His eight outs above average at the hot corner were fourth in the NL, but because Arenado nearly doubled him in that category, he gets the edge despite nearly identical offensive stats (his 11.6% strikeout rate to Manny's 20.7% also helps). Mchado actually beat Arenado by five points in batting average and eight points in on-base percentage while falling two points short in slugging percentage, which gave him a one point advantage in the all-encompassing stats of wOBA (.382) and wRC+. It also meant that Manny led the NL in fWAR while finishing third in wRC+, third in wOBA,third in OPS, fourth in batting average, fourth in slugging percentage, and fifth in total bases (307). Overall, it was one of the best all-around seasons in the NL, but his excellent defense vs Arenado's elite defense and his higher strikeout rate contributed to him falling just short in my book.

Honorable mention: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Stat line: 35 HR, .317/.404/.578, 7 SB, 177 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 151 games
Paul Goldschmidt was the single best hitter in the National League this year, and I don't think there are any two ways around it. He led the league in wRC+, wOBA (.419), slugging percentage, and OPS, all by a very healthy margin, and finished second in total bases (324), second in on-base percentage, third in hits (178), third in batting average, fourth in extra base hits (76), and fifth in home runs. He was so good, in fact, that I very nearly put him ahead of defensive whizzes Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado, though his being limited to first base does hurt his value just a little. Goldschmidt did look like the favorite for much of the season and was slashing .338/.423/.633 on August 27th, but his bat quieted a bit towards the finish line and he hit just .229/.325/.349 over his final 31 games, allowing Arenado and Machado to overtake him.

Others
1B Freddie Freeman (Dodgers): 21 HR, .325/.407/.511, 13 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.1 fWAR in 159 games
RHP Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
OF Mookie Betts (Dodgers): 35 HR, .269/.340/.533, 12 SB, 144 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 142 games
C J.T. Realmuto (Phillies): 22 HR, .276/.342/.478, 21 SB, 128 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 139 games
2B Jeff McNeil (Mets): 9 HR, .326/.382/.454, 4 SB, 143 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 148 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Stat line: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2.49 FIP, 185/29 K/BB in 175 innings
Justin Verlander may have thrown just the sixteenth most innings in the American League this year, behind names like Jordan Lyles and Nick Pivetta, but those 175 innings were some of the most dominant we have seen in some time. In fact, only two live ball era pitchers have EVER had a lower ERA and a lower WHIP while throwing that many innings in a season: Greg Maddux in 1995 (1.63 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 209.2 IP) and Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 217 IP). That's it, that's the list. For my money, that is plenty enough to award him the AL Cy Young Award. He may not be striking out as many batters as he used to, with his 27.8% rate (sixth best in the AL) actually by far his lowest mark with the Astros, but pinpoint command meant he walked just 4.4% of his opponents, third best in the league. He was untouchable from start to finish this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 26 of his 28 starts and allowing one or zero earned runs in 20 of 28. He also never walked more than three batters in a start, walked more than two just twice, and walked one or zero in 21 of 28 starts. His worst ERA in any month was 2.27, while his worst WHIP was 1.01. That ERA would have finished fourth in the AL and that WHIP would have finished sixth. Just unbelievable stuff from the 39 year old future first ballot Hall of Famer.

Runner-up: RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Stat line: 14-8, 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 FIP, 227/78 K/BB in 184 innings
So Dylan Cease led the entire American League with 78 walks and a 10.4% walk rate, which isn't ideal, but he actually did almost everything else well. He finished second in ERA, second in strikeouts, second in opponents' batting average (.190), third in games started, and third in strikeout rate (30.4%), and he did all of that despite playing in front of one of the worst defenses in the AL that did him no favors. So he walked a lot of guys, but he stranded most of them on base and did pretty much everything else as well as you could. And even though he was a bit wild, he only hit three batters, the fifth fewest among the 22 qualified starters in the AL. It's a low ERA, high strikeout, large sample season that is comfortably behind Justin Verlander's but in my opinion just a touch better than everyone else in the league. To this point in his career, he has now dropped his ERA and WHIP in each of his four major league seasons.

Honorable mention: RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.40 FIP, 219/44 K/BB in 166 innings
We already talked about Shohei Ohtani's pitching in the AL MVP section, and in my opinion he had the third best season of any AL pitcher this year, bat notwithstanding. Not only did he blast 34 home runs with a .356 on-base percentage as a hitter, but he was a legitimate ace and the best pitcher on the west coast. He led the American League in strikeout rate (33.2%), finished second in FIP, third in strikeouts, fourth in ERA, and fifth in WHIP, and additionally only allowed two unearned runs so he didn't allow errors to hurt him. He had ten different double digit strikeout games, kept the ball in the ballpark with just 14 home runs allowed (fourth fewest among qualified AL starters), and pitched like an ace nearly every time he went out there.

Others
RHP Shane Bieber (Guardians): 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.87 FIP, 198/36 K/BB in 200 innings
RHP Alek Manoah (Blue Jays): 2.24 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 180/51 K/BB in 196.2 innings
LHP Shane McClanahan (Rays): 2.54 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.00 FIP, 194/38 K/BB in 166.1 innings
RHP Emmanuel Clase (Guardians): 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
LHP Nestor Cortes (Yankees): 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 3.13 FIP, 163/38 K/BB in 158.1 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins
Stat line: 14-9, 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 207/50 K/BB in 228.2 innings
Sometimes, old fashioned is better. Sandy Alcantara led all of Major League Baseball in innings pitched by 23.2 over second place Aaron Nola, with his 228.2 representing the highest total for any pitcher since David Price threw 230 innings for the 2016 Red Sox. Additionally, his six complete games (five of the nine inning variety) doubled second place Framber Valdez's total of three this year, and again represented the highest total since Chris Sale's six for the 2016 White Sox. Alcantara's shortest start this year was 4.2 innings, and he completed seven innings in 22 of his 32 starts. But you don't get the Cy Young Award just for throwing a bunch of innings, and Alcantara pitched like an ace throughout. Not only was he on the mound far more than anybody else this season, he also finished second in the NL in ERA, fourth in strikeouts, fifth in FIP, and sixth in WHIP. That kind of dominance over such a large sample is just too easy a choice for this award.

Runner-up: RHP Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.58 FIP, 235/29 K/BB in 205 innings
Aaron Nola's 3.25 ERA may have been just the thirteenth best in the National League, but it was an otherwise exceptional season. Pitching in front of an poor Phillies defense that finished 29th out of 30 teams in terms of outs above average and in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, his 2.58 FIP (second in the NL) and 2.74 xERA (per Statcast) point to significant bad luck, mostly owing to that bad defense behind him. And yet he still threw the most innings in MLB by pitchers not named Alcantara, led all NL pitchers in fWAR (6.3) and walk rate (3.6%), and finished third in strikeouts, third in games started, and fourth in WHIP. It was about as well as you could expect anybody to pitch on their own, and if you swapped any other pitcher into his circumstances, I'm not sure you would have seen better numbers from anybody.

Honorable mention: RHP Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants
Stat line: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.25 FIP, 237/52 K/BB in 178 innings
Carlos Rodon found himself in a similar position to Aaron Nola, pitching in front of the third worst defense in the majors in San Francisco. In fact, if you take his defense out of it, his 2.25 FIP led all of Major League Baseball, so he controlled the three true outcomes better than anybody. In addition to leading the league in FIP, he also led the NL in strikeout rate (33.4%) and finished second in strikeouts (237), second in fWAR (6.2), sixth in ERA, and ninth in WHIP. He had eleven double digit strikeout games and was overall just a bat missing machine, which is exactly what the Giants needed given their relative inability to field the baseball.

Others
LHP Max Fried (Braves): 2.48 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.70 FIP, 170/32 K/BB in 185.1 innings
RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers): 2.94 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.14 FIP, 243/51 K/BB in 202 innings
RHP Edwin Diaz (Mets): 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
RHP Spencer Strider (Braves): 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: C Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 13 HR, .254/.362/.445, 4 SB, 133 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 113 games
Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez are so neck and neck, with fWAR assigning them both the same value at 5.3 and bWAR giving Rodriguez a 6.0 to 5.2 edge. You really can't go wrong with either here, and I'm only choosing Rutschman because you can't have two rookies of the year. Rutschman played 19 fewer games than Rodriguez and fell 13 points behind in wRC+, but he was also one of the better defensive catchers in baseball. The Orioles as a team had a 3.97 ERA this year, but that was down to 3.79 with Rutschman behind the plate versus 4.39 with Robinson Chirinos. He didn't only help the pitching staff, he helped the whole team. The Orioles were 16-24 (.400 WPCT) when he got called up, then went 67-55 (.549 WPCT) from there on out. To come in and immediately improve not only a pitching staff, but a team like that is even more impressive as a 24 year old rookie, and his presence is looking to kickstart an era that could bring the best Orioles teams since the Jim Palmer/Eddie Murray golden era of the 1970's and early 1980's. Rutschman isn't just notable for his glove, though, as his 133 wRC+ shows he brings a serious bat as well. His .362 on-base percentage would have been fourteenth best in the American League and his 13.8% walk rate sixth best if he had enough at bats to qualify, while his 35 doubles clocked in at thirteenth. Obviously those numbers won't blow you away, but again, this is a 24 year old rookie whose glove and clubhouse presence have already helped transform a team.

Runner-up: OF Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 28 HR, .284/.345/.509, 25 SB, 146 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 132 games
Like I mentioned, Julio Rodriguez is equally deserving of the Rookie of the Year Award, and Adley Rutschman only beat him by a hair. Rodriguez's season was very different than Rutschman's, but just as impressive. He played in 19 more games, hit 15 more home runs, and posted a wRC+ 13 points higher, just about making up for Rutschman's prowess behind the plate. And don't forget about Rodriguez's glove, because even though center field might not be quite as important as catcher, his seven outs above average came in thirteenth among American League outfielders. In what was a down year for hitters, his 146 wRC+ was the fifth best in the entire AL, behind only Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yandy Diaz (yep, Yandy Diaz quietly finished at 146). His 5.3 overall fWAR finished ninth in the league, just edging Rutschman. Rodriguez played the entire season at just 21 years old, in a very pitcher-friendly home stadium, and early in the season was the recipient of some of the worst called strike luck in recent memory, but you would't know that from his final numbers that included a 25-25 season. And we can't forget the show he put on at the Home Run Derby, either. He'll likely be worth every penny of that mega contract he signed with Seattle.

Honorable mention: OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 6 HR, .298/.373/.400, 19 SB, 124 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 147 games
It's a two horse race for the AL Rookie of the Year this year, but let's not forget about Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan. An elite contact bat, he was one of just five qualified American League hitters to draw more walks than strikeouts, and his 9.4% strikeout rate was the second lowest in the league behind only Luis Arraez. His .373 on-base percentage was also ninth best in the league, so overall Kwan was just relentless about putting the ball in play and getting on base. The power wasn't quite there, but he did add significant value on defense with eight outs above average, good for eighth among AL outfielders. He fits in perfectly with Cleveland's contact-first style of play, and his big rookie season deserves recognition in the shadows of Adley Rutschman and Julio Rodriguez.

Others
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings
RHP George Kirby, Mariners: 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.99 FIP, 133/22 K/BB in 130 innings
RHP Joe Ryan, Twins: 3.55 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 151/47 K/BB in 147 innings
SS Jeremy Peña, Astros: 22 HR, .253/.289/.426, 11 SB, 102 wRC+ in 136 games
LHP Brock Burke, Rangers: 1.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 90/24 K/BB in 82.1 innings

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 11-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.83 FIP, 202/45 K/BB in 131.2 innings
The NL Rookie of the Year Award will come down to two Braves, and I think Spencer Strider gets the edge. He accrued the fifth most fWAR (4.9) of any National League pitcher this year, rookie or not, enough to earn the #6 spot on my NL Cy Young ballot. Though he only threw 131.2 innings, he was one of just six NL pitchers to record 200 strikeouts this year while his 38.3% strikeout rate and 1.83 FIP led the NL (min. 130 innings) by a huge margin ahead of second place Carlos Rodon's 33.4% and 2.25, respectively. He actually began the year in the Atlanta bullpen and made eleven relief appearances with a 2.22 ERA and a 37/11 strikeout to walk ratio in April and May, but jumped to the rotation at the end of the month and never looked back. He recorded his first double digit strikeout game in his third start and pitched the game of the year on September 1st, when he allowed jut two hits and no walks over eight shutout innings against the Rockies, striking out 16 along the way. Now Strider did walk 8.5% of his opponents, the ninth highest mark in the NL among pitchers who threw at least 130 innings, but if he can get that down, the league could have its next true ace.

Runner-up: OF Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 19 HR, .297/.339/.514, 20 SB, 136 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR in 114 games
Like Spencer Strider, Michael Harris didn't play enough to qualify for rate-based stats, but he was so great once he did come up in late May that he deserves a good long look for the NL Rookie of the Year Award. I gave it to Strider because I see him fitting much better into the down ballot Cy Young discussion than Harris fits in the down ballot MVP discussion, but it is fairly close. Harris came one home run short of a 20-20 season despite missing a third of the season, and his .514 slugging percentage topped Julio Rodriguez for the best among MLB rookies (min. 100 games played) while his .297 batting average fell just behind Steven Kwan's .298 and his .853 OPS fell just behind Rodriguez's .854. He was also a very strong defender whose seven outs above average were enough to finish fourth among all NL outfielders. It's a pretty similar season overall to Rodriguez (in 18 fewer games), who got much more media attention.

Honorable mention: LHP Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 4-7, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 131/39 K/BB in 103.1 innings
It was a forgettable season in Cincinnati, but four rookie pitchers had seasons to remember. Nick Lodolo was perhaps the best among them and earns the third spot on my NL Rookie of the Year ballot, but Hunter Greene was right there behind him while Alexis Diaz was the best rookie reliever in the NL and Braxton Ashcraft made it to one hundred innings as well. Lodolo earns this spot despite throwing 22.1 fewer innings than Greene over five fewer starts because when he was on the mound, he was better. His 3.66 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.25 FIP all compare very favorably to league averages, as the 24 year old gave the Reds 103.1 very effective innings in the rotation right off the bat. He got better as the season went along, too, and figures to stick around near the top of that Reds rotation for a very long time.

Others
RHP Hunter Greene (Reds): 4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, 164/48 K/BB in 125.2 innings
RHP Alexis Diaz (Reds): 1.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.32 FIP, 83/33 K/BB in 63.2 innings
2B Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): 5 HR, .281/.394/.379, 2 SB, 129 wRC+ in 126 games
1B Joey Meneses (Nationals): 13 HR, .324/.367/.563, 1 SB, 156 wRC+ in 56 games
OF Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): 14 HR, .262/.336/.433, 9 SB, 116 wRC+ in 111 games

American League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 1.36 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 1.98 FIP, 77/10 K/BB in 72.2 innings
If you want to talk untouchable, then Emmanuel Clase is a great place to start. Opponents hit a paltry .167/.200/.225 against him as virtually nobody could barrel his triple digit cutter from start of the season to finish. His 28.4% strikeout rate was strong but not elite, but when hitters did make contact, it was weak contact galore as they wound up with a barrage of weak ground balls. He didn't walk anybody, either with just a 3.7% walk rate, so you really just had to get lucky to reach base. In fact, his longest stretch of consecutive appearances allowing a baserunner was just three appearances. In other words, he never went four games without posting at least one perfect appearance.

Others
RHP Jason Adam (Rays): 1.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 2.86 FIP, 75/17 K/BB in 63.1 innings
RHP Andres Muñoz (Mariners): 2.49 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.04 FIP, 96/15 K/BB in 65 innings
RHP Jhoan Duran, Twins: 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.52 FIP, 89/16 K/BB in 67.2 innings

National League Reliever of the Year

Winner: RHP Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Stat line: 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.90 FIP, 118/18 K/BB in 62 innings
There were some great relievers in the National League this year, dare I say a deeper group than in the American League, but Edwin Diaz ultimately made this an easy choice. The man ran a 1.31 ERA as he allowed just nine runs in 62 innings, but even more impressive was a 0.90 FIP that represents the fourth lowest mark of all time (min. 50 innings) behind only 2012 Craig Kimbrel (0.78), 2003 Eric Gagne (0.86), and 2014 Aroldis Chapman (0.89). He was certainly helped by striking out 118 of the 235 batters he faced, good for a 50.2% strikeout rate that made him the third pitcher ever to strike out more than half the hitters he faced (min. 50 innings) after 2014 Chapman (52.5%) and 2012 Kimbrel (50.2%). Yeah, that'll play.

Others
RHP Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 2.34 FIP, 94/20 K/BB in 64.2 innings
RHP Evan Phillips (Dodgers): 1.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 1.94 FIP, 77/15 K/BB in 63 innings
RHP Devin Williams (Brewers): 1.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.01 FIP, 96/30 K/BB in 60.2 innings

Friday, October 4, 2019

2019 Dugout Edge Regular Season Awards: MVP's and Cy Youngs

These awards are based on how I would assign them, not how I believe they will end up. Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Reliever of the Year will follow, time permitting

American League MVP
Winner: CF Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
Stat Line: 45 HR, 104 RBI, .291/.438/.645, 11 SB, 180 wRC+, 8.6 fWAR in 134 games
Alex Bregman's white-hot second half paired with Mike Trout's season ending three weeks early made this a much tougher call than it was a month ago, but ultimately, I think Trout pulls ahead by a hair here. Trout finished with 45 home runs, an on-base percentage well north of .400, excellent base running that goes beyond his eleven stolen bases, good defense, and overall consistent performance. He led the American League wOBA (.436), wRC+ (180), and fWAR (8.6), and when I compared his cumulative stats to Bregman's (that's the way to do it when it comes to weighing performances over significantly different numbers of games, right?), he topped him in most of them. RE24 is a bit of a flawed stat that I prefer for pitchers, but it's still a good stat that measures run expectancy impact and Trout accumulated 71.5 "runs" of value provided while Bregman finished second in the AL with 59.9. Bregman was so, so good down the stretch, but Trout was so, so much better when he was on the field and it gave him the edge. He held an OPS above 1.000 in each month, managed 16 home runs in a 26 game stretch from July 3rd to August 6th, and at one point scored a run in eleven straight games despite a fairly futile offense around him. Trout is unquestionably the best player of our era and is closing in on becoming the best player of all time if he isn't already. Now with 285 career home runs, 200 stolen bases, and 73.4 fWAR in 1199 games, he has moved up to 47th on the all time list despite only having turned 28 in August. In the last few months of the season, he past the likes of Frank Thomas (72.1), Rod Carew (72.3), and Derek Jeter (73.1). Easily within reach for 2020 are Johnny Bench (74.8) and Ken Griffey Jr. (77.7).

Runner up: 3B/SS Alex Bregman (Houston Astros)
Stat Line: 41 HR, 112 RBI, .296/.423/.592, 5 SB, 168 wRC+, 8.4 fWAR in 156 games
Even though I picked Trout as being a hair ahead of Bregman, it's true that the Astros' third baseman had a tremendous season that would have netted him the MVP in many other seasons. He was solid through the first chunk of the season, though his .259/.393/.516 line on July 31st resembled much more of an All Star-type season than that which could get him compared to Mike Trout. However, he flipped a switch in August and stayed white hot throughout the rest of the season, slashing .372/.487/.750 with 15 home runs, 21 doubles, 49 driven in, and nearly twice as many walks (37) as strikeouts (20) in 51 games over the final third of the season. It's not like the Astros necessarily needed that to propel them to what was an easy AL West crown, but Bregman was certainly front and center in the success that led them to an MLB-high 107 wins. And if his bat and steady defense at third base weren't enough, he also appeared in 65 games at shortstop while Carlos Correa was hurt, more than holding his own. It really is so close, but playing in the same league as Trout is tough, and I have to hand Trout the award here. Bregman's 8.4 fWAR would have led the National League had the Astros not switched over back in 2013, and he was the only player in the majors (min. 400 PA) with more walks than strikeouts.

Honorable mention: SS Marcus Semien (Oakland A's)
Stat Line: 33 HR, 92 RBI, .285/.369/.522, 10 SB, 137 wRC+, 7.5 fWAR in 162 games
Who saw this one coming? Marcus Semien, who had never put up more than 56 extra base hits in a season, had 83 this season (43 2B, 7 3B, 33 HR) to finish third in the American League behind only Red Sox teammates Rafael Devers (90) and Xander Bogaerts (85). All those extra base hits, including 33 home runs, helped him slash .285/.369/.522 despite a pitcher-friendly home park, his 137 wRC+ placing tenth in the AL. Like Bregman, he also got hot late, slashing .304/.396/.621 with 19 home runs in the second half and .347/.441/.693 with eight home runs in September, helping propel the A's to the AL Wild Card Game. Of course, possibly even more valuable than his bat was his glove, as he played Gold Glove defense at shortstop all year long to team with Matt Chapman in giving the A's the best left side infield defense in the game. Additionally, Semien was one of only four American League players to appear in all 162 games, joining the Royals' Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler and the Orioles' Jonathan Villar. Semien's numbers might not pop out like Trout's or Bregman's, but his combination of well above average hitting, excellent defense, and durability made him the third most valuable player in the American League (and, as it turns out, in the AL West).

Others:
RHP Justin Verlander (HOU, 2.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 300/42/223 K/BB/IP)
RHP Gerrit Cole (HOU, 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 326/48/212.1 K/BB/IP)
SS Xander Bogaerts (BOS, 33 HR, .309/.384/.555, 6.8 fWAR)
3B Rafael Devers (BOS, 32 HR, .311/.361/.555, 5.9 fWAR)
RF Mookie Betts (BOS, 29 HR, .295/.391/.524, 6.6 fWAR)

National League MVP
Winner: RF Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stat Line: 47 HR, 115 RBI, .305/.406/.629, 15 SB, 162 wRC+, 7.7 fWAR in 156 games
If Christian Yelich hadn't gotten hurt, I'd be handing him this award. However, he did, and Bellinger's monster first half and strong second half carried him just past Yelich over the final few weeks of the season. I know that a lot of people will look at his .263/.371/.546 second half line and dislike it, and while it would be ideal to have your best player be more consistent, I really have no problem with it. Most people would have no problem if he slashed .263/.371/.546 in the first half before catching fire in the second half, because his performance "in the stretch run" would be what "propelled the Dodgers into the postseason." However, I think it's important to note that a win in mid-April counts every bit as much as a win in mid-September, and you could even argue that the early season games were more important for the Dodgers as they established their stranglehold on the NL West before coasting for most of the rest of the season, even if Bellinger slowed down in that stretch. Now, he was truly incredible out of the gate. Over his first 30 games, Bellinger slashed .434/.508/.906 with 14 home runs. I don't care what you do after that, if you're worth 2.9 wins in 30 games, you earn plenty of slack. Those first 30 games included 15 multi-hit games, 13 separate games with a home run, and an appearance on base in all but one of those games. From there on out, he slashed .274/.382/.564 – All Star caliber numbers, but not quite MVP totals. However, all together, that .305/.406/.629 line with 47 home runs represents one of the most potent bats in the National League. Throw in his 15 stolen bases and high level defense in the outfield as well as at first base and you have a National League MVP worth 7.7 fWAR in 156 games.

Runner-up: RF Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stat Line: 44 HR, 97 RBI, .329/.429/.671, 30 SB, 174 wRC+, 7.8 fWAR in 130 games
As I said with Bellinger, Yelich was the MVP when he got hurt on September 10th, but unlike Trout, he couldn't hang on while on the shelf, at least in my opinion. Now unlike Bellinger, Yelich was much more consistent throughout the season. By posting at least a .935 OPS in every month and splitting his slash lines at .329/.433/.707 in the first half and .330/.423/.611 in the second half, he managed to finish at .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 130 games. Not many players can go 40-30-.400 (HR-SB-OBP); in fact, nobody has this century, with Jeff Bagwell and his 42 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and .454 OBP in 1999 marking the last time anybody has done it. It's a real disappointment that Yelich didn't get to finish his fantastic season, but he still has a real shot at the MVP award and I would not throw a fit if he won over Bellinger. He had a couple of incredible games during the season, too: on April 15th, he homered three times against the Cardinals, on August 5th, he went 4-5 with a couple home runs in Pittsburgh, and on August 17th, he went 5-6 with a couple home runs in Washington.

Honorable mention: 3B Anthony Rendon (Washington Nationals)
Stat Line: 34 HR, 126 RBI, .319/.412/.598, 5 SB, 154 wRC+, 7.0 fWAR in 146 games
For most of the season, the NL MVP was a two horse race, but a red-hot second half from Anthony Rendon, coupled with a quieter second half from Cody Bellinger and an injury to Christian Yelich, made it interesting at the end. Rendon slashed an impressive .304/.386/.611 with 20 home runs in the first half, but he caught fire in the second, slashing .389/.462/.674 with 12 home runs over 49 games from there until September 4th. However, he slowed back down over the last few weeks of the season, slashing .194/.381/.347 the rest of the way and effectively falling out of the race. Still, the final product of 34 home runs, a .319/.412/.598 line, and a major league-leading 126 RBI made him perhaps the biggest on-field reason why the Nationals surged the way they did. On the glove side, Rendon was as steady as they come, making all the routine plays as well as the regular highlight reel play. In the National League, perhaps only Cody Bellinger could match Rendon's value on both sides of the ball this year.

Others:
CF/SS Ketel Marte (ARI, 32 HR, .329/.389/.592, 10 SB, 7.0 fWAR)
RHP Jacob deGrom (2.43 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 255/44/204 K/BB/IP)
CF Ronald Acuna (ATL, 41 HR, .280/.365/.518, 5.6 fWAR)
3B Nolan Arenado (COL, 41 HR, .315/.379/.583, 5.9 fWAR)
C Yasmani Grandal (MIL, 28 HR, .246/.380/.468, 5.7 fWAR)

American League Cy Young
Winner: RHP Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
Stat Line: 21-6, 2.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 300/42 K/BB in 223 IP
You could pick either Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole here and you wouldn't be wrong. Those who pick Cole probably value more strikeouts, which Cole had (326 to 300 or 39.9% K-rate to 35.4%), while those who value limiting baserunners probably choose Verlander (0.80 WHIP to 0.89). Now, the 36 year old Verlander had one of his finest seasons to date, reaching 200 innings for the 12th time in the past 13 years and reaching 300 strikeouts for the first time ever. He led the American League in wins (21), innings pitched (223), WHIP (0.80), and strikeout to walk ratio (7.14:1), tied for the lead in starts (34), finished second to Cole in ERA (2.58) and strikeouts (300), and even threw a no-hitter. He went at least six innings in 29 of his 34 starts, which in today's game is unheard of. He never allowed more than four runs, earned or unearned, in any game, and struck out at least seven batters in 27 starts. That consistency also carried over to the longer term, as he never posted a WHIP above 0.92 in any given month and only had one month with an ERA above 2.68. At this point, he has cemented himself as one of the top pitchers of the 21st Century.

Runner-up: RHP Gerrit Cole (Houston Astros)
Stat Line: 20-5, 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 326/48 K/BB in 212.1 IP
Gerrit Cole struck out 326 batters in 2019 and led the American League in ERA. Nobody has struck out that many in a season since Randy Johnson struck out 334 in 2002. Furthermore, Cole's 39.9% strikeout rate was the best EVER a starting pitcher. And not just by a hair, by 2.4% over Pedro Martinez's 37.5% in 1999! That's incredible. He also finished the season exceptionally strong, going 11-0 with a 1.79 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP, and a 156/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.2 innings in the second half. In the month of September, he was absolutely untouchable, posting a 1.07 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a 74/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 innings – if you're counting, that's a 48.7% strikeout rate over an entire month. All those strikeouts combined with elite run prevention and baserunner prevention makes for one hell of a season.

Honorable mention: RHP Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians)
Stat Line: 15-8, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 259/40 K/BB in 214.1 IP
Before the season, how many of you had Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole finishing one and two for the Cy Young? Probably quite a few. How about Shane Bieber finishing third? Now that's a surprise. His season started modestly enough, as he ran a 3.81 ERA through May 13th, threw a complete game shutout to bring it down to 3.22 on May 19th, but had it back up at 4.07 by June 9th. However, he spun a 12 strikeout gem against the Tigers on June 15th, and from that start onwards, he went 10-6 with a 2.89 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 163/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 innings to close out the season. While his complete game, 15 strikeout, no run performance against Baltimore on May 19th was his best by the numbers, he came back on July 24th with a second complete game shutout, this time allowing just three baserunners while striking out ten. His third complete game on August 3rd made him one of only two AL pitchers this year with three complete games, the other being Lucas Giolito. Despite relative anonymity at the start of the season, he led all American League pitchers not named Verlander or Cole in innings (214.1), strikeouts (259), WHIP (1.05), and strikeout to walk ratio (6.48:1), though of course he was third to those two in each category.

Others:
RHP Charlie Morton (TB, 3.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 240/57/194.2 K/BB/IP)
RHP Lance Lynn (TEX, 3.67 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 246/59/208.1 K/BB/IP)
LHP Mike Minor (TEX, 3.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 200/68/208.1 K/BB/IP)
RHP Lucas Giolito (CWS, 3.41 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 228/57/176.2 K/BB/IP)
RHP Mike Clevinger (CLE, 2.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 169/37/126 K/BB/IP)

National League Cy Young
Winner: RHP Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Stat Line: 11-8, 2.43 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 255/44 K/BB in 204 IP
For a while, it was a two horse race between Hyun-Jin Ryu and Max Scherzer, but both slowed down in the second half while Jacob deGrom picked it up. After starting the season with 13 shutout innings and 24 strikeouts to two walks, he scuffled a bit over the rest of April and had a 4.85 ERA when the month closed, and another rough start on May 17th left him 2-5 with a 3.98 ERA through nine starts. However, he turned it on from there, finishing 9-3 with a 1.91 ERA over his last 23 starts. He continually got stronger as the season wore on, as that run included a 1.44 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 117/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings in the second half. He went exactly seven innings in eleven of his last twelve starts, allowing one earned run or fewer in nine of those. In the end, the only thing he led the NL in was strikeouts (255), but he still finished a close second in ERA (2.43) and WHIP (0.97) and third in innings pitched (204).

Runner-up: RHP Jack Flaherty (St. Louis Cardinals)
Stat Line: 11-8, 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 231/55 K/BB in 196.1 IP
Jack Flaherty's 2019 season started plainly enough, holding a 3.77 ERA over the first two months of the season, but a rough June left him with a 4.90 ERA heading into his July 7th start. However, since then, he's been the best pitcher in the National League, going 7-3 with a 0.93 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP, and a 130/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.1 innings to close out the year. Over those last 16 starts, he allowed zero or one run 13 times and only once allowed more than five hits in a game (six on July 21st). The end result was that he and Jacob deGrom were the only National League pitchers to throw at least 190 innings with an ERA below 3.20, and his 0.97 WHIP was the best in the league.

Honorable mention: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stat Line: 14-5, 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 163/24 K/BB in 182.2 IP
This one was really close between Ryu and Stephen Strasburg, but I ultimately went with Ryu based on the complete dominance he had in most of his starts despite missing some time. The major league ERA leader stumbled a bit in the second half, including a four start stretch in August and September where he allowed 21 earned runs and 38 baserunners in 19 innings (9.95 ERA, 2.00 WHIP), but up until there, he had been virtually untouchable. Heading into that stretch, Ryu was 12-2 with a 1.45 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 121/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.2 innings. He never struck out a ton of batters, reaching double digits in just one start, but he still had ten scoreless starts of at least six innings out of his 29 total, and in two more he allowed unearned runs but no earned runs. His two best starts of the season may have come back to back, when he tossed a four hit, no walk, six strikeout, complete game shutout against a strong Braves lineup on May 7th then followed it up with eight shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and nine strikeouts against a strong Nationals lineup on May 12th. In the end, he led the majors with a 2.32 ERA and the National League with a 3.3% walk rate.

Others
RHP Stephen Strasburg (WSH, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 251/56/209 K/BB/IP)
RHP Max Scherzer (WSH, 2.92 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 243/33/172.1 K/BB/IP)
RHP Walker Buehler (LAD, 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 215/37/182.1 K/BB/IP)
LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 189/41/178.1 K/BB/IP)
LHP Sonny Gray (CIN, 2.87 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 205/68/175.1 K/BB/IP)

Friday, October 5, 2018

2018 Dugout Edge Regular Season Awards: MVP's and Cy Youngs

These awards are based on how I would assign them, not on how I believe they will end up. Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Reliever of the Year will follow

American League MVP
Winner: Mookie Betts (Boston Red Sox)
Stats: 32 HR, .346/.438/.640, 30 SB, 185 wRC+, 10.4 fWAR in 136 games
This award is so, so close with Mike Trout and I want so, so badly to give it to him, but I think Mookie Betts has Trout by just a hair. While Trout has the higher on-base percentage (.460 to .438), Betts has the higher slugging percentage (.640 to .628), leading to very similar wOBA's of .449 for Betts and .447 for Trout. Adding in park factors, Trout's 191 wRC+ tops Betts' 185, though Betts' stronger defense helps him win the fWAR battle 10.4 to 9.8. To help confirm the defensive edge for Betts, he recorded ten outs above average (Statcast) to Trout's eight. And, though I don't believe in using team winning percentage to qualify an MVP, it can help be a tiebreaker (but only in absolute ties), and Betts wins there. Again, as much as Trout deserves more MVP awards and as much as I want to give it to him, Betts was just a hair better. Now, to focus on Betts, his season was absolutely phenomenal. With a .346/.438/.640 slash line as well as 30 stolen bases and ten outs above average, he showed not only skill but exceptional proficiency in all facets of the game: power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. Meanwhile, his 14.8% strikeout rate was fairly low for today's standards, especially for a power hitter, and he established himself as arguably the second best player in the game after Trout. His 13.2% walk rate was also a career high. Betts lead the American League in runs (129), batting average (.346), slugging percentage (.640), extra base hits (84), wOBA (.449), and fWAR (10.4) while finishing second in doubles (47), on-base percentage (.438), OPS (1.078), and wRC+ (185). This was mostly possible due to an exceptionally hot stretch from April 1st to May 25th in which he slashed .372/.446/.793 with 17 home runs and a 23/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. That included his best game of the season on April 17th when he homered three times and walked twice in five trips to the plate in the Red Sox 10-1 win over the Angels, including leading off the game with a home run off Shohei Ohtani.

Runner-Up: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
Stats: 39 HR, .312/.460/.628, 24 SB, 191 wRC+, 9.8 fWAR in 140 games
Another year, another exceptional season from Trout. In fact, his 191 wRC+ and .447 wOBA set career highs in what has likely been his best offensive season ever. This is why it is so difficult for me not to give Trout the MVP award, and it reflects more on Mookie's incredible season than any shortcomings whatsoever for Trout, and Trout remains the best player in the league by far. In 2018, he led the American League in wRC+ (191), walks (122), on-base percentage (.460), and OPS (1.088) while finishing second in wOBA (.447) and fWAR (9.8) and fourth in home runs (39) and batting average (.312). He also added eight outs above average and stole 24 bases, showing, like Betts, the ability to change the game in every facet. He continued his career trend of being completely allergic to slumps, posting an OPS of at least 1.045 in all five full months that he was healthy (.867 in three March games and .873 when missing all but eight August games to injury). He was unstoppable at home (.296/.469/.583) and on the road (.328/.450/.672), against lefties (.292/.452/.540) and righties (.318/.462/.656), and before (.310/.454/.606) and after (.316/.472/.684) the All Star Break. Of note is an eight game stretch in June where he knocked four home runs and slashed .696/.771/1.261 against Seattle, Oakland, and Arizona. He also had his best game of the season on September 8th, when he punished the White Sox by swatting three singles and two home runs as part of a 5-5 performance in the Angels' 12-3 win.

Honorable Mention: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians)
Stats: 39 HR, .270/.387/.552, 34 SB, 147 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR in 157 games
As with Trout and Betts, the race for third place is exceptionally close between Jose Ramirez and Alex Bregman, though I think Ramirez wins by a hair. He didn't league the league in anything, but he finished in the top five in walks (106), fWAR (8.1) stolen bases (34), home runs (39), runs scored (110), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.552), OPS (.939), total bases (319), on-base percentage (.387), extra base hits (81), wRC+ (147), and wOBA (.393). While his .270 batting average hampered his real stats enough that he doesn't quite factor into the MVP conversation, his power/patience/speed combination was among the best in baseball. In fact, he was the first player to hit 30 home runs, steal 30 bases, and draw 100 walks in a season since Bobby Abreu way back in 2004 (though Mike Trout came three home runs away in 2013 and one home run away in 2016). He was fantastic and on pace with Trout and Betts in the first half (.302/.401/.628, 29 HR), but a second half slump (.218/.366/.427, 10 HR) dropped him out of the MVP race.

Others
Alex Bregman (HOU, 31 HR, .286/.394/.532, 10 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR)
J.D. Martinez (BOS, 43 HR, .330/.402/.629, 6 SB, 170 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR)
Francisco Lindor (CLE, 38 HR, .277/.352/.519, 25 SB, 130 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR)
Justin Verlander (HOU, 16-9, 2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 290/37 K/BB, 214 IP)
Blake Snell (TB, 21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 221/64 K/BB, 180.2 IP)

National League MVP
Winner: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Stats: 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 269/46 K/BB, 217 IP in 32 starts
Again, while this wasn't as close as the AL MVP race, choosing a pitcher, in this case Jacob deGrom, ahead of a hitter, in this case Christian Yelich, is always difficult. Not only are comparisons difficult, but it's hard to get over the stigma that the MVP award ~should~ go to a position player. That said, while Yelich had a great season, deGrom was exceptional. In 31 of his 32 starts, he allowed no more than three runs (earned or unearned), and he allowed just four in that one other start. That means that deGrom gave his team the chance to win, without exception, in every single one of his 32 starts. Of course, the Mets' offense and bullpen had other ideas, but that's not deGrom's fault. Yelich was pretty great, but while his season was more in line with typical top-of-the-league production (i.e. typical MVP candidate), deGrom put up one of the finest pitching seasons in recent memory, and that's why I chose him over Yelich. I'll write more in the Cy Young section.

Runner-Up: Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 36 HR, .326/.402/.598, 22 SB, 166 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR in 147 games
In terms of the best position player, Christian Yelich is a fairly easy pick. He led the National League in fWAR (7.6), wRC+ (166), wOBA (.422), batting average (.326), slugging percentage (.598), and total bases (343). With four outs above average in the outfield, he proved to be a positive contributor on defense as well, helping him check all the boxes between power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. Unlike Betts and Trout, who were consistent contributors throughout the season, Yelich was pretty good before the All Star Break (.292/.364/.459, 11 HR) before catching fire for the entire second half of the season. In 65 games post-break, he knocked 25 home runs and slashed .367/.449/.770, with the batting average, slugging percentage, and 1.219 OPS leading all major leaguers after the break. His second half run helped spur the Brewers on a furious chase for the NL Central crown, which they ultimately won in Game 163 as Yelich knocked three hits and stole a base. Yelich also became the first player since Aaron Hill in 2012 and just the fifth ever with two cycles in the same season, with his first cycle on August 29th being his best game of the season: 6-6, three singles, double, triple, home run, three RBI, two runs scored in Brewers' 13-12, extra inning win over the Reds.

Honorable Mention: Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs)
Stats: 34 HR, .290/.326/.554, 21 SB, 131 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 160 games
This number three spot was really difficult to choose from, with Javier Baez, Anthony Rendon, and Nolan Arenado all coming very close. In fact, Rendon and Arenado put up virtually identical seasons when taking ballpark into context. Even though Baez's 5.3 fWAR was lower than both Rendon's 6.3 and Arenado's 5.7, I have to go with Baez. The .326 on-base percentage is low, in most cases too low to be considered the third most valuable player in the league and second most valuable position player, but everything else about his game was top notch. He slugged 34 home runs for a very good .554 slugging percentage, stole 21 bases, played great defense, and provided a spark for his team every time he touched the ball. It's that last part that makes me look past the fWAR and let Baez rank ahead of Rendon and Arenado, because Baez made his teammates better and because he simply makes baseball fun. It's good for the Cubs' brand, and while branding shouldn't play a significant role in selecting MVP candidates, it's a nice tiebreaker. It's also cool that his first half (.292/.326/.566) and second half (.289/.326/.540) were virtually identical, which is not common for a player who strikes out as much as Baez does.

Others
Anthony Rendon (WSH, 24 HR, .308/.374/.535, 140 wRC+, 6.3 fWAR)
Nolan Arenado (COL, 38 HR, .297/.374/.561, 132 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR)
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI, 33 HR, .290/.389/.533, 144 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR)
Max Scherzer (WSH, 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 300/51 K/BB, 220.2 IP)
Aaron Nola (PHI, 17-6, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 224/58 K/BB, 212.1 IP)

American League Cy Young
Winner: Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
Stats: 16-9, 2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 290/37 K/BB, 214 IP in 34 starts
We're over a year past the trade that sent Justin Verlander from Detroit to Houston, yet it still feels weird to write "Houston Astros" next to his name. Anyways, Verlander's 2.52 ERA may have been the third best in the American League (fourth if you include Chris Sale, who just missed qualifying for the ERA title), but his season was truly remarkable if you look a little bit deeper. Among qualifiers (sorry Chris Sale), he led the AL in games started (34), strikeouts (290), WHIP (0.90), opponents' on base percentage (.242), strikeouts per walk (7.84), and strikeout rate (34.8%) while finishing second in innings (214) and third in ERA (2.52) and walk rate (4.4%). While Blake Snell's ERA is significantly better, Verlander threw far more innings, kept more runners off base, and did so while working with a somewhat less effective defense behind him. Verlander's season itself was fairly streaky, as he began the season on a mad run that saw him with a 7-2 record, a 1.11 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 98/15 strikeout to walk ratio at the end of May. However, from the start of June through the end of August, he went 6-7 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, though his K/BB was an excellent 142/17 over 99.2 innings in that stretch. He then closed the season with a 1.09 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a 50/5 strikeout to walk ratio in September. I chalk it up to BABIP (luck): his opponents' BABIP was .210 in that first stretch, .249 in the second, and .238 in the third. His best start came on May 2nd, when he kept the Yankees off the board for eight shutout innings, allowing three hits, no walks, and one hit batsmen while striking out 14.

Runner-Up: Blake Snell (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 221/64 K/BB, 180.2 IP in 31 starts
On the surface, Blake Snell's numbers look better than Verlander's. I don't care that he won more games, but the ERA is significantly lower (with RA9's checking out similarly between Snell's 2.04 and Verlander's 2.65) is certainly a factor. However, as I explained with Verlander, Snell threw 33.1 fewer innings over three fewer starts, which in and of itself is not a deal breaker, but he also allowed more baserunners (0.97 WHIP to Verlander's 0.90) due to a 9.1% walk rate that was more than double Verlander's 4.4%. His 31.6% strikeout rate was also slightly lower than Verlander's 34.8%, and he had the benefit of slightly better defense behind him. Snell got better and better as the season went on, because as of May 13th, he was 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 53/16 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he turned his season from a good one to a great one right there, going 17-2 with a 1.37 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 168/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.2 innings. After the All Star Break, he never allowed more than two runs (earned or unearned) in any single start, his 1.17 ERA and 0.79 WHIP both leading the majors. Overall, that helped him lead the AL in ERA (1.89) and opponents' OPS (.554).

Honorable Mention: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox)
Stats: 12-4, 2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 237/34 K/BB, 158 IP in 27 starts
Further down the workload chain is Chris Sale, who missed qualifying for the ERA leaderboards by just four innings due to a shoulder injury that limited him to just 17 innings in August and September combined. However, if he did qualify, he would have led the league in WHIP (0.86), opponents' OPS (.532), and strikeout rate (38.4%). Even with that massive strikeout rate, he was able to keep his walk rate down at a very reasonable 5.5%, well below Snell's 9.1%. He is the kind of pitcher where on his best days, he's unhittable, and I'd wager that Sale's best is better than anyone else's best. From June 24th to September 16th, he had the best nine start stretch of any pitcher this season: 6-0, 0.19 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 82/6 K/BB in 48 innings.

Others
Corey Kluber (CLE, 20-7, 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 222/34 K/BB)
Gerrit Cole (HOU, 15-5, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 276/64 K/BB)
Trevor Bauer (CLE, 12-6, 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221/57 K/BB)
Blake Treinen (OAK, 9-2, 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 100/21 K/BB)
Mike Clevinger (CLE, 13-8, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 207/67 K/BB)

National Leauge Cy Young
Winner: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Stats: 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 269/46 K/BB, 217 IP in 32 starts
I wrote a bit about Jacob deGrom in the MVP section, but I'll expand a bit here. Not only does deGrom deserve this award, but he deserves to be unanimous. It's not even close. The major league ERA leader was untouchable in his 32 starts, allowing three or fewer runs in all but one and allowing just four runs in the other start. In no individual month was his ERA above 2.36, and he never posted a WHIP above 1.07. Literally every time he took the mound, he put the Mets in a position to win. He wasn't streaky and he didn't get blown up from time to time and make up for it with gems. He simply dominated from his first start (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K vs Cardinals) to his last start (8 IP, 0 ER, 10 K vs Braves). Through it all, opponents slashed just .196/.244/.277, their .521 OPS coming out to the MLB's lowest since Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta both allowed a .507 OPS in 2015. This wasn't just the best year by any pitcher this year, but I'd wager it was the best since 2015's Greinke (1.66 ERA, 200/40 K/BB) and Arrieta (1.77 ERA, 236/48 K/BB.

Runner-Up: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 300/51 K/BB, 220.2 IP in 33 starts
Max Scherzer may have had the third best ERA in the National League, but his 0.91 WHIP, 300 strikeouts, 34.6% strikeout rate, and 220.2 innings pitched all led the league. It may have actually been the best year of his Hall of Fame career, yet deGrom was so good that he finishes second here and it's not really that close. He did seem to slide just a bit as the season progressed, beginning with a 1.62 ERA in March/April, a 2.21 ERA in May, 2.31 in June, 3.18 in July, 1.89 in August, and a 4.24 ERA in September. His best start of the season came on April 9th, when he tossed a complete game shutout against the Braves while allowing just two hits and no walks while striking out ten. Overall, opponents slashed just .188/.247/.332 against Scherzer, hitting for some moderate power but otherwise struggling to get on base.

Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies)
Stats: 17-6, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 224/58 K/BB, 212.1 IP in 33 starts
From the start of September, we knew that it was going to be a three horse race for the NL Cy Young Award between deGrom, Scherzer, and Aaron Nola. Nola comes out in third place here, but not by much. His 2.37 ERA beat Scherzer's 2.53 despite poor defense behind him, and by throwing 212.1 innings, his workload was in the same ballpark as deGrom's 217 innings and Scherzer's 220.2. However, his 224/58 K/BB, which is still great, falls behind deGrom's 269/46 and Scherzer's 300/51. Interestingly, Nola only had five scoreless starts all season, instead relying on consistency and never allowing more than four runs, earned or unearned, in a single start. He was like deGrom in that sense, only not as good, in giving the Phillies the chance to win every single time he took the mound. His best start came on July 9th against the Mets, where he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and ten strikeouts in New York.

Others:
Kyle Freeland (COL, 17-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB)
Miles Mikolas (STL, 18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB)
Patrick Corbin (ARI, 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246/48 K/BB)
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL, 13-10, 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 202/68 K/BB)
Zack Greinke (ARI, 15-11, 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 199/43 K/BB)

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

2018 First "Half" Awards

AL MVP: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
25 HR, .310/.454/.606, 15 SB, 187 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR in 97 games
When three American League players finished the first half with exactly 6.5 fWAR, it's going to be a narrow race, and I picked Trout just a hair ahead of Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez. While Betts has hit at a better rate (202 wRC+ to Trout's 187 and Ramirez' 174), Trout has played 19 more games than Betts, and I have to take that into account that Trout has played in every single game for the 49-48 Angels. He has also been incredible consistent, never posting an OPS below 1.064 in any of the three full months (April, May, June) because his on-base percentage never dipped below .427 and his slugging percentage never fell below .593. Oh yeah, and he has walked more (84) than he has struck out (83), swiped 15 bases in 16 attempts, and played good defense in center field. Trout is the best player since at least Barry Bonds, and he's as good as ever in 2018.

Runner up: Mookie Betts (23 HR, .359/.448/.691, 18 SB, 202 wRC+, 6.5 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Jose Ramirez (6.5 fWAR), Francisco Lindor (5.4 fWAR), Andrelton Simmons (4.0 fWAR)

NL MVP: Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies)
23 HR, .312/.395/.586, 2 SB, 145 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR in 90 games
I have been resistant to giving Arenado the MVP award in any season because his numbers have been more in line with those of others rather than ahead of them, and a Rockies MVP candidate really should be blowing his competition out of the water offensively. Well this year, he is, with his .412 wOBA (not park adjusted) second only to defensive butcher Jesus Aguilar's .414 in the National League, helping his 145 wRC+ (park adjusted, Coors Field effect mitigated) good for fifth behind Aguilar (159), Eugenio Suarez (158), Freddie Freeman (150), and Paul Goldschmidt (146). (On a side note, who the heck thought those two would be in first and second place?). Throw in Arenado's elite defense, and you have an MVP. He is currently setting career highs in all of his rate stats, including batting average (.312), on-base percentage (.395), slugging percentage (.586), wOBA (.412), wRC+ (145), walk rate (12.4%), and also strikeout rate (18.2%, not that that one is a good thing). He's really having a career year, and like Trout, he hasn't really slumped at all. The one thing I notice is that his home/road splits are even more drastic than you'd expect, as he is slashing .370/.447/.694 with 14 home runs in 46 games at Coors and .253/.343/.476 with nine home runs in 44 games on the road. The wRC+, which is not effected by Coors, is then 175 at home and 115 on the road.

Runner up: Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 149/30 K/BB in 123.1 IP)
Honorable mentions: Max Scherzer (2.41 ERA), Aaron Nola (2.30 ERA), Scooter Gennett (3.3 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
9-5, 2.29 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 172/24 K/BB in 137.2 innings
Even at 35, Justin Verlander is at the top of his game, likely solidifying his Hall of Fame case with his performance this season. He's near the top of all the AL leaderboards this year, including ERA (4th), WHIP (1st), strikeouts (4th), strikeout to walk ratio (2nd), innings (1st), and pitching fWAR (3rd). While he has scuffled just a bit in his last few starts, he did go on a tear from April 9th to June 2nd where he pitched at least six innings in each of his eleven starts and gave up no more than two runs, earned or unearned. At the end of May, his ERA sat at 1.11 and his WHIP at 0.72, and while those numbers have risen to 2.29 and 0.84, respectively, and it's not like he has even been bad since then; his 4.11 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are pretty respectable for a "slump," or as I like to call it in this case, a regression. He's going up against tough opponents in the AL West including the surprisingly good Mariners and A's as well as the just-hanging-in-there Angels.

Runner up: Chris Sale (10-4, 2.23 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 188/31 K/BB in 129 IP)
Honorable mentions: Trevor Bauer (2.24 ERA), Gerrit Cole (2.52 ERA), Luis Severino (2.31 ERA)

NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
5-4, 1.68 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 149/30 K/BB in 123.1 innings
It's easy to forget about him, as he pitches for the forgettable Mets, but deGrom is quietly shutting down opponents every time he steps on the mound. His 1.68 ERA is first in major league baseball by a long shot, and if you add in his three unearned runs, his 1.90 RA9 still crushes everybody else's ERA. He has allowed more than three runs in a game just once, when he allowed four on April 10th, and has allowed more than one earned run in just five of his 19 starts. That means in 14 out of 19 starts, he limited the opposition to zero or one earned runs, and he still had just a 4.05 ERA in those other five starts, a.k.a. his five worst starts of the season. Nobody has put his team in a better position to win game in and game out than deGrom, and it really takes that much to go 5-4 with that Mets offense behind you.

Runner up: Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 182/34 K/BB in 134.2 IP)
Honorable mentions: Aaron Nola (2.30 ERA), Miles Mikolas (2.79 ERA), Kyle Freeland (3.11 ERA)

AL Rookie of the Year: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
7 HR, .283/.365/.522, 2 SB, 145 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR in 54 games
4-1, 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 61/20 K/BB in 49.1 innings
Ohtani was supposed to run away with this award after a hot start to the season, but the injury makes it a race. With Gleyber Torres hurt as well, Ohtani is able to hold onto his spot into the All Star Break. At the plate, his .283/.365/.522 line is downright incredible for a rookie that is also pitching, and if he had enough plate appearances, his 145 wRC+ would rank 11th in the American League. Combine that with a borderline ace-like performance on the mound on a per-inning basis, one in which he has a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over nine starts, and you have something that's literally un-heard of. Unfortunately, he may not pitch again this season, but that means he'll get more plate appearances to beef up his offensive numbers. Among rookies, his 2.2 combined fWAR easily bests Torres' 1.6 for the most in the American League, but even if they were close, I'd still give it to Ohtani for the sheer difficulty of what he is doing.

Runner up: Gleyber Torres (15 HR, .294/.350/.555/ 2 SB, 143 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Jake Bauers (1.5 fWAR), Miguel Andujar (1.1 fWAR), Lou Trivino (1.22 ERA)

NL Rookie of the Year: Jack Flaherty (St. Louis Cardinals)
3-4, 3.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 87/24 K/BB in 75 innings
This is a crowded NL Rookie of the Year field, with lots of players holding their own but nobody really standing out yet. I think that will change once Juan Soto catches up to everyone else from a volume of work perspective, but for now, we'll go with Jack Flaherty, who is pitching like a veteran in St. Louis. Through 14 starts he has a 3.24 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and an 87/24 strikeout to walk ratio, getting hit around a few times but also tossing some absolute gems. On May 20th, against the surprisingly good Phillies, he allowed one run on just two hits and one walk while striking out 13 in 7.2 innings. On June 22nd, against another good team, the Brewers, he allowed one run again, this time on just one hit, two walks, and 13 strikeouts over seven innings. You don't expect rookies to be consistent, and while Flaherty hasn't been an exception on that front, few can touch him when he's at his best.

Runner up: Brian Anderson (8 HR, .288/.363/.429, 2 SB, 119 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR)
Honorable mentions: Juan Soto (1.5 fWAR), Joey Lucchesi (3.34 ERA), Tyler Mahle (4.02 ERA)


Friday, September 1, 2017

Astros Bolster Rotation With Justin Verlander

Astros get: Justin Verlander (10-8, 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 176/67 K/BB, Age 34)
Cash and a player to be named later

Tigers get: Franklin Perez (6-3, 3.02 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 78/27 K/BB at High Class A and AA, Age 19)
Jake Rogers (18 HR, 70 RBI, .263 AVG, 14 SB at Class A and High Class A, Age 22)
Daz Cameron (14 HR, 73 RBI, .271 AVG, 32 SB, 128 wRC+ at Class A, Age 20)

This trade is great for both sides. Detroit has made it clear that they are in a rebuild, having already dealt J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila, and Justin Upton (today), and the Astros are trying to get over the hump and win their first World Series Championship. The Astros (80-53) are the team to beat in the relatively weak American League this year, with the Indians (76-56) and Red Sox (76-58) proving to be closer to "generally good" than "powerhouse." The story isn't quite the same in the NL, as both the Dodgers (91-41) and Nationals (81-52), as well as potentially the red-hot Cubs (73-60) would fit the "powerhouse" label. The Astros have gotten where they are almost entirely by a first-rate offense which leads the majors virtually every offensive category, including wOBA (.351), wRC+ (123), and good old fashioned runs scored (735). MVP frontrunner Jose Altuve (.355/.414/.565) is backed up by All Stars Carlos Correa (.320/.400/.566) and George Springer (.290/.368/.540), as well as big bats Alex Bregman (.287/.360/.483), Yulieski Gurriel (.293/.324/.476), and Josh Reddick (.303/.347/.467), among others. What has kept them from being the AL's Dodgers, however, has been pitching.
Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) has been the ace at the front of the Houston rotation, but Lance McCullers (7-3, 3.92 ERA), Charlie Morton (10-6, 3.88), Mike Fiers (8-9, 4.55), and Collin McHugh (2-2, 3.25) have been more good than great behind him. With the addition of former Cy Young Justin Verlander, the team is now ready for a World Series run. In my opinion, he's the one piece this team needed to get over the hump into the "elite" category. Verlander may not be the same pitcher he was in his prime, but the 34 year old is in fact still better than people give him credit for. He had a huge bounce-back season in 2016 (16-9, 3.04 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 254/57 K/BB), one that very nearly netted him a second AL Cy Young Award. Though he put up pretty uninspiring numbers in his first 17 starts (5-5, 4.96 ERA, 1.52 WHIP), he's gotten back to his 2016 form over his last 11, going 5-3 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. He's gone at least six innings and allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, and Astros fans should be thrilled to have him. After this season, he still has two years and $56 million left on his contract, with a $22 million vesting option for the 2020 season if he finishes in the top five of the Cy Young voting in 2019. With what the city of Houston has gone through over the past week, I'll be rooting for the Astros until they (hopefully) square off against the Nationals in the World Series.

The Tigers rebuild really got a boost with this trade, as they picked up three quality prospects for their ace. Right hander Franklin Perez is both the youngest and the closest to the big leagues, reaching AA this season at the age of 19. The 6'3" Venezuelan began the season at High Class A Buies Creek despite his young age, yet he still dominated, going 4-2 with a 2.98 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 53 and walking 16 in 54.1 innings. Promoted to AA Corpus Christi, he has continued to pitch well against older competition, going 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP, striking out 25 and walking 11 in 32 innings. He has a moving low to mid 90's fastball and a plus curveball, as well as a slider and a changeup that will round out a starter's arsenal. He immediately supplants 2016 draftee Matt Manning (or 2017 draftee Alex Faedo, depending on who you ask) as the Tigers' top prospect, bringing ace potential with a relatively high floor. Catcher Jake Rogers was drafted in the third round out of Tulane in 2016 as a glove-first catcher, showing a weak bat in his pro debut in 2016 (.233/.341/.377 in Short Season ball and Class A), exactly as expected. However, he seems to have turned a switch in 2017, with his bat beginning to catch up to his big league-caliber glove. Starting at Class A Quad Cities, he slashed .255/.336/.520 over 27 games, earning a promotion to High Class A Buies Creek. There, over 83 games, he slashed .265/.357/.457 and even stole 13 bases, bringing his season's home run total to 18 and establishing himself as a legitimate prospect, not just a potential back-up. The 22 year old still hasn't hit quite enough to be considered a future Yadier Molina, but his stock is up and he could be a starting catcher in the major leagues. Lastly, we have Daz Cameron, the 20 year old who came to the Astros as a competitive balance pick in 2015 out of high school in Georgia, though he could have been a top 20 pick if it weren't for signability. Mike Cameron's son struggled in his first two seasons of pro ball and missed time to a hand injury, but he seems to have gotten back on track at Class A Quad Cities this year. Over 120 games, he is slashing .271/.349/.466 with 14 home runs and 32 stolen bases, showing the kind of five tool potential that netted him a $4 million signing bonus. Though he has the tools, he still needs to cut back on his 21.1% strikeout rate if he wants to reach his potential.