Recent first rounders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott lead the way on offense, but this system stands out most for its starting pitching depth. Breakouts from Spencer Howard, Damon Jones, and Kyle Glogoski helped them join guys like Cole Irvin, JoJo Romero, Adonis Medina, and David Parkinson as guys who could compete for rotation spots in the near future, and nice steps forward from Francisco Morales and Erik Miller down near the bottom of the system were really nice to see. There's not a ton of ceiling anywhere in this system except for perhaps in Bohm and Morales, but the sheer depth of viable starting pitchers here is enough to say the system is in a fairly decent spot.
Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, short season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies
Catcher
- Deivy Grullon (2020 Age: 24): Grullon has gradually added power throughout his time in the minors, and he really broke out in that sense once he got to the top two levels of the Phillies' system, which are naturally hitter-friendly. This year, he slashed .283/.354/.496 with 21 home runs and a 133/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at AAA Lehigh Valley, then he doubled for his lone hit in nine major league at bats. Grullon generates his power more from strength than from bat speed, though he also tends to swing over the ball and put more balls on the ground than he should. He's not the smoothest catcher behind the plate, but he does have a cannon for an arm that levels out his defensive value. Overall, he probably projects for about 15 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages, which puts him in line for a long-term role as a backup catcher.
- Rafael Marchan (2020 Age: 21): Marchan is probably the most balanced catching prospect in the system, and in my opinion, he's probably the best. In 2019, the switch hitter slashed .261/.333/.325 with no home runs and a 39/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at Class A Lakewood and High A Clearwater, and while he's yet to hit a home run in his 210 career pro games, he did set a career high with 20 doubles in 2019 and he's spent most of his career in pitcher-friendly contexts. Marchan is only 5'9", but he has a clean swing from both sides of the plate and a great eye for the strike zone, making easy contact and rarely striking out. That helps him behind the plate, too, where he should be above average all-around. Whether Marchan can ever break through as a starter will depend on his power, as he currently hasn't shown much in games and has instead settled for line drives, but he does have the potential to pop 5-10 annually. I think he probably ends up a backup long term, but I do like him.
- Rodolfo Duran (2020 Age: 22): Overall, Duran has a fairly similar profile to Grullon. Duran spent 2019 at High A Clearwater, where he slashed a fairly disappointing .240/.273/.369 with six home runs and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, though Clearwater is fairly pitcher-friendly. He generates good power despite his 5'9" frame, getting the barrel to the ball quickly with his quick wrists and powerful swing. He's very aggressive at the plate usually puts the ball in play, leading to a very low walk rate, and overall I think Grullon has the better long-term outlook. Duran will probably always post low on-base percentages but he has a shot to hit for some power, and his defensive profile is fairly similar to Grullon's as well, perhaps a hair better.
- Juan Aparicio (2020 Age: 19-20): This one might sneak up on a few people, but he's a sleeper to watch. In 2019, he slashed .303/.364/.457 with two home runs and a 41/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at short season Williamsport and Class A Lakewood, showing great feel for the barrel at a young age that should play up as he moves through the minors. He's very much a work in progress defensively, so he's far, far from a sure thing, but if he does shore up his play behind the plate, his bat profiles well back there and he's got some upside. He doesn't turn 20 until May.
- Keep an eye on: Abrahan Gutierrez, Andrick Nava, Freddy Francisco
Corner Infield
- Alec Bohm (2020 Age: 23-24): Bohm was the Phillies' first round (third overall) pick out of Wichita State in 2019, and his successful first full season (as well as Sixto Sanchez's trade to the Marlins) cemented his status as the top prospect in the system. The Phillies started Bohm off conservatively at Class A Lakewood, but he ended up hitting his way up three levels and finished with a .305/.378/.518 slash line, 21 home runs, and a 73/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's got raw power in his 6'5" frame, but perhaps more impressive this year was his plate discipline, as he rarely struck out while drawing a healthy amount of walks, even after he got up to AA a year out of college. A 73/57 strikeout to walk ratio is not common for 6'5" power hitters, and his track record since his college days proves that it's absolutely not a fluke. The one nit-picky ding on Bohm's season may have been his power, as he only hit seven home runs in 62 games in A ball, though he also hit 19 doubles and those were pitcher-friendly contexts. 14 of his 21 home runs came in 63 games in Reading, his highest level, though that in turn was a very hitter-friendly context. Overall, he projects for 25-30 home runs per season and high on-base percentages, making him a true middle of the order hitter. The Phillies are hoping to keep him at third base, where he's adequate, but there's a non-zero chance that he shifts over to first base, where his bat will still easily profile.
- Darick Hall (2020 Age: 24-25): Behind Bohm, the Phillies have a few fringy prospects, but really nothing too too special going on. That enables Darick Hall, a 14th round pick out of Dallas Baptist in 2016, to stand out with his power. In 2019, he slashed .235/.344/.454 with 20 home runs and a 134/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games, and while he does have a track record for hitting for power (he has 75 home runs over the last three seasons), most of that power in 2019 showed up at his hitter-friendly home park. Hall has a lot of power in his 6'4" frame, though while he does have that track record of getting to it, you have to question whether that will still be the case in the majors. His patient approach leads to plenty of walks but also a good amount of swing and miss, and as a first baseman, he'll have to hit. He hits lefties pretty well despite being a left handed hitter, so he has that going for him, and he projects as a power hitting bench bat.
- Keep an eye on: Austin Listi, Madison Stokes, Cole Stobbe
Middle Infield
- Nick Maton (2020 Age: 23): Maton has utility infielder written all over him, but he does have the upside to be a starting second baseman. In 2019, he slashed .266/.349/.376 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 85/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Clearwater and AA Reading. He doesn't have any loud tools that stand out, but he also doesn't really do anything wrong on the field, using his advanced approach, quick, left handed swing, and wiry strength to produce some surprisingly decent power and high on-base percentages. He probably doesn't have quite enough bat to start in the majors, and he'll profile well as a utility guy who does a bit of everything, but I get a good feeling here and he could easily outplay his projections.
- Bryson Stott (2020 Age: 22): Stott, the Phillies' first round pick out of UNLV in 2019, hit the ground running in pro ball and looks like he'll move quickly. In his pro debut, he slashed .295/.391/.494 with six home runs and a 39/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Williamsport, showing off the broad array of skills that got him drafted 14th overall. He's added power throughout his time in college as he's filled out his 6'3" frame and started to focus more on driving rather than just hitting the ball, and it's turned him into a dangerous hitter given his exceptional hand eye coordination and feel for the barrel. He draws plenty of walks while avoiding strikeouts well, even after shifting his approach to hit for more power, and at this point he projects for about 15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases here and there. The fact that Alec Bohm has third base locked up bodes well for his ability to stick at shortstop, as he's solid but unspectacular there, though second base is also a future possibility. He has the bat to profile anywhere on the field and he has the ceiling of a true leadoff man.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 19): He's one of five relevant Luis Garcia's in professional baseball, including one who pitched out of the Phillies bullpen in 2018, so it's hard to keep them all straight. This Luis Garcia signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.5 million in 2017, then slashed .369/.433/.488 in a fantastic pro debut in the complex level Gulf Coast League as a 17 year old in 2018. The Phillies completely skipped him over short season ball and sent him straight to Class A Lakewood as an 18 year old, where his approach was exposed a bit and he slashed .186/.261/.255 with four home runs and a 132/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games. Garcia's strong feel for the game enabled the Phillies to be aggressive with him, though now they may need to dial that back a bit. A switch hitter, his bat from the right side (.232/.317/.272) might be a bit ahead of his bat from the left side (.170/.240/.249), but he still shows a clean, simple stroke from both sides and his strong approach helps him put the ball in play regularly. I wouldn't be too worried about the tough season just yet, and a little more patience could see him develop into a contact-hitting utility man or starting shortstop with some speed to boot. He's very good defensively, and if he hits enough, it will likely be him who pushes Stott off of shortstop, not the other way around.
- Jamari Baylor (2020 Age: 19): The Phillies didn't have a second round pick in 2019, so they went for upside in the third round and signed Baylor out of a Richmond-area military high school. He played just four games in his pro debut and slashed .273/.333/.455 with a pair of strikeouts and a walk. Baylor has more talent than track record at this point, showing power, speed, and solid contact ability that could make him a well-rounded player. He's got some nice loft in his swing and does a good job of putting the ball in play, though he hasn't quite tapped his raw power too much yet and will need time to develop it. It's also not exactly known where he'll fit in on the diamond, as he's a shortstop for now but he has to play his way past Stott and Garcia if he wants to start there. For now, just think of him as an athletic kid who could develop in any number of directions, albeit with some bust risk.
- Keep an eye on: Arquimedes Gamboa, Daniel Brito, Kendall Simmons, Wilfredo Flores
Outfield
- Mickey Moniak (2020 Age: 21-22): I don't have to tell Phillies fans that Moniak has been one of the bigger disappointments in recent memory. Drafted first overall out of a San Diego-area high school in 2016, he's moved through the minors one level at a time and in 2019, he slashed .252/.303/.439 with eleven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 111/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AA Reading. Those numbers are actually the best of his career, and it was nice to see that seven of his eleven home runs came on the road away from his hitter-friendly home park. Moniak is a great athlete with great feel for the game, and that's what got him drafted first overall, though in pro ball he hasn't hit for nearly as much impact as hoped. He's got a solid approach at the plate, especially for a kid who won't turn 22 until May, and he's good at spraying balls into the gaps (his 13 triples actually tied for second in the minors this year). It's hard to see him turning into the star the Phillies envisioned when drafting him, but he still shows just enough on both sides of the ball to potentially profile as a 10-15 home run guy with solid on-base percentages, some speed, and solid outfield defense.
- Jhailyn Ortiz (2020 Age: 21): Ortiz was a big time prospect when he signed out of the Dominican Republic for $4.2 million in 2015, more money than fellow Dominicans Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got the very same week. Ortiz hasn't quite developed as quickly, and in 2019 he slashed .200/.272/.381 with 19 home runs and a 149/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at High A Clearwater. There's no question about his raw power being among the best in the system, perhaps even better than Alec Bohm's when he gets into one. However, Ortiz's approach at the plate leaves some to be desired, and there are enough holes in his right handed swing that he hasn't been able to get to his power consistently. The good news is that Ortiz was playing the entire season in High A at 20 years old, and he still has time to figure himself out. Ortiz's ceiling is still that of a 30 homer bat with fluctuating on-base percentages, but he's more likely to end up a fringe starter with 15-20 home runs annually and low on-base percentages.
- Simon Muzziotti (2020 Age: 21): Muzziotti has been kind of a sleeper in this organization for a while, but he finally began to break out in 2019 by slashing .287/.337/.372 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 60/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Clearwater. He's skinny and won't ever be mistaken for a power hitter, but he's very athletic and his great hand eye coordination and barrel control give him a combination of both low strikeout rates and gap power. He's one I expect to get better as he moves up through the minors and begins to fill out his 6'1" frame, and while the current projection is that of a contact-hitting fourth outfielder, he has a chance to be more.
- Matt Vierling (2020 Age: 23): A fifth rounder out of Notre Dame in 2018, Vierling had a highly successful pro debut where he slashed .321/.365/.496 between short season Williamsport and Class A Lakewood, and extremely impressive showing considering the majority of his games came at the higher level. He wasn't quite able to build off that in 2019, slashing .232/.297/.329 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 94/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games in that talented High A Clearwater outfield, though many hitting prospects have had a tough time in the Florida State League. He doesn't stand out for any of his physical tools (besides his cannon arm), instead doing a little bit of everything well and using his advanced feel for the game to produce. He has a short, simple right handed swing that produces a lot of line drives and fly balls, the latter of which went to die in the cavernous Florida State League ballparks, and he avoids strikeouts well while using his above average speed to steal bases efficiently. Defensively, he has solid range and that great arm, and if he can get his bat back and humming, he has a good shot at being a valuable fourth outfielder.
- Keep an eye on: Cornelius Randolph, Grenny Cumana, Josh Stephen, Carlos De La Cruz, Johan Rojas
Starting Pitching
- Cole Irvin (2020 Age: 26): Irvin is just barely a prospect, but he still technically qualifies and he'll get a writeup here. After a strong 2018 season in AAA (2.57 ERA, 131/35 K/BB), the Phillies sent him back to the minors again in 2019 where he had a 3.94 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 65/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley – he also had a 5.83 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 major league innings. A fifth round pick out of Oregon in 2016, his stuff is average across the board, but he stands out most for his ability to control the strike zone and put himself in advantage counts. A low 90's fastball and a set of solid-average secondaries means he can fall victim to the long ball occasionally, as he allowed 20 in 2019, so the fact that he is good at avoiding mistakes is critical. Irvin is also extremely durable, as he's topped 135 innings in four consecutive seasons going back to college, which will play to his advantage in trying to crack a Phillies rotation with some question marks at the bottom. There are a lot of guys competing for those last couple of spots that have higher ceilings, so Irvin is most likely destined for a swing role, but should they falter or get hurt, he'll be right there to grab that fifth spot.
- Spencer Howard (2020 Age: 23-24): Howard, a second rounder out of Cal Poly in 2017, has been on an upward trajectory for a while now. He struggled out of the gate in 2018, but turned it around and finished strong, throwing a complete game no-hitter in the South Atlantic League playoffs. This year, he posted a 2.03 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 94/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 innings between High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and a few innings of complex level rehab work despite missing time with shoulder soreness. There's no one adjustment that helped Howard break out this year; he got better all around. He now sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and sharpened his secondary stuff, with his slider becoming a real weapon and his curveball and changeup coming along. Additionally, he's gotten more consistent with his command, which rather than working against him, now works in his favor as he attacks the zone with more confidence. Shoulder problems are always scary, but it looks like he's put them behind him. If he can stay healthy, Howard is on the kind of trajectory that could land him in the middle of the Phillies rotation at some point in 2021 or perhaps even in late 2020.
- JoJo Romero (2020 Age: 23): Romero had three strong seasons to start his pro career after going in the fourth round out of an Arizona junior college in 2016, but he hit his first speed bump in 2019. This year, he had a 5.82 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 92/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings at AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley, as he handled Reading (4.84 ERA, 52/12 K/BB) but struggled at the higher level (6.88 ERA, 40/35 K/BB). He's solid but fairly inconsistent with both his stuff and his command, and it was a slight regression in the command that hurt him at AAA. He typically sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which he can run and sink effectively, and he adds a full array of secondary pitches that he gets good deception on. He sometimes loses his release point, which can affect both the stuff and command, but he's still fairly young as far as upper minors prospects go and he has time to refine that. Doing so will be the key to success in the majors, as he may profile better as a left handed reliever if he's going to be inconsistent. He'll also have to battle Irvin, Howard, Enyel De Los Santos, Damon Jones, and active major leaguers like Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta if he wants to crack the rotation in 2020.
- Adonis Medina (2020 Age: 23): The Phillies have brought Medina along at exactly a one level per year pace, though 2019 was a bit tough as he reached AA. He posted a 4.94 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and an 82/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.2 innings for Reading, the hitter-friendly environment perhaps getting to him as he allowed eight of his eleven home runs at home. Medina's stuff is just about MLB-caliber; he sits in the low to mid 90's with his running fastball, gets nice, two plane break on his curveball, and gets nice fade on his changeup. He also doesn't hurt himself with walks too often. His problem, especially in AA, has been that he's not missing bats at the rate his stuff dictates he should, especially against left handed batters. While he doesn't walk a lot of guys, he needs to work on hitting his spots better and avoiding left handed barrels, and in order to start at the major league level, sharpening one of his secondary pitches into a true plus pitch will probably be necessary. For now he projects as a #4 starter with the chance to be a #3.
- Damon Jones (2020 Age: 25): Jones went in the 18th round out of Washington State in 2017, but he caught some eyes by pitching well in Class A in 2018 (3.41 ERA, 123/50 K/BB) before breaking out in 2019. This year, he had a 2.91 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 152/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and AAA Lehigh Valley, though he actually had a 1.34 ERA and a 119/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings before his promotion to AAA (6.62 ERA, 33/26 K/BB). The 6'5" lefty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and he's added power to his curveball that now makes it an out pitch. Additionally, he did a much better job of attacking hitters with strikes, at least at the lower levels, though his command fell apart and his lack of a real changeup exposed him in AAA. Jones has more work to do in those regards, and he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter if he can take even a small step forward there, and his fastball/curveball combination would play up well out of the bullpen.
- David Parkinson (2020 Age: 24): After drafting Parkinson in the 12th round out of Ole Miss in 2017, the Phillies tried to take it slow with the 6'2" lefty, but he dominated in A ball in 2018 (1.45 ERA, 141/35 K/BB) and forced a promotion to AA to start 2019. He spent the year there and posted a 4.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 118/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings for Reading, which was especially nice to see after he had spent all of 2018 pitching in pitcher-friendly environments. Additionally, not included in those stats are seven shutout innings in the Eastern League playoffs, which would bring his ERA down to 3.86. He pitches with largely average stuff, sitting just above 90 with his fastball and adding a nice curveball and an improved changeup, but his command has been better than expected in pro ball and that's enabled it to continue to play up at every level he's pitched at. Parkinson still has a limited ceiling as that of a #4 or #5 starter, but it's looking more and more likely that he'll get there.
- Connor Seabold (2020 Age: 24): Seabold got all the way up to AA in 2018, his first full season after being drafted in the third round out of Cal State Fullerton in 2017, though injuries kept him off the mound until the end of June in 2019. Once he returned, he looked as good as ever, putting up a 2.24 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 58/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings between complex level rehab, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and like Parkinson, adds a curveball and an improving changeup, though his command has been his bread and butter as he has gotten better at hitting his spots rather than just filling up the strike zone. Those 40 great innings at AA now have him in position to fight for a back-end rotation spot in the near future, but the Phillies also have so many arms near the top of the minors that it might be tough.
- Kyle Glogoski (2020 Age: 21): Here's a kid that came out of absolutely nowhere. Glogoski grew up in Auckland, New Zealand, where baseball isn't all that popular, to put it lightly. However, after discovering the game at the age of 12 (you can read a really good article on that here), he's taken off, and he signed with the Phillies in 2018, two days after his 19th birthday. After a strong showing in the complex-level Gulf Coast League in 2018 (2.31 ERA, 47/11 K/BB), he put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2019, posting a 1.68 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings at Class A Lakewood and High A Clearwater. The 6'2" righty sits around 90 with his fastball, adding a curveball with big drop and a nice changeup, but his stuff plays up both due to his command and his ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance (especially the latter). He'll be just 21 years old for all of 2020 with the chance to tackle the upper minors, and if he can refine his command a bit further, he could be a #3 or a #4 starter. Even at present, he's well on his way to being a #5.
- Francisco Morales (2020 Age: 20): Coming into the season, Morales was a young arm with emerging stuff that hadn't quite put it together. Now, after a strong full season debut, he's well on his way leading the next wave of arms in this system. In 2019, he had a 3.82 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at Class A Lakewood, nice numbers when you consider he was 19 for the whole season. He now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary stuff is beginning to come along, with both a slider and a changeup that are improved from a year ago. He's still very much a work in progress, as his command leaves some to be desired, but that too is improving and he's probably right where the Phillies want him to be in his development. The 6'4" righty is on the right trajectory, will be just 20 for all of 2020, and has breakout potential.
- Erik Miller (2020 Age: 22): Miller has always been a bit of an enigma, and he still is. A top prospect coming out of a St. Louis high school in 2016, he instead attended Stanford and rode an up and down career to a fourth round selection in 2019. His pro debut was much more up than down, as he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at short season Williamsport, and at Class A Lakewood. He's a 6'5" lefty with a power, low to mid 90's fastball and a swing and miss slider, but he's been inconsistent with pretty much everything else. He sometimes struggles to keep his big frame in sync, which leads to elevated walk rates, and his changeup looks good at times but can also flatten out. That's a reliever profile on the surface, but I wrote before the draft that a pro team might be able to clean him up and get him to his mid-rotation ceiling. We've only seen 36 innings of him in pro ball, but the Phillies might be doing just that and he could end up being a fourth round steal if he the success holds up. He's certainly talented enough to do so.
- Victor Santos (2020 Age: 19-20): Despite still being just a teenager, Santos has thrown over 200 professional innings and has walked just 27 batters – that alone tells you most of what you need to know about the 6'1" righty. In 2019, he skipped over short season ball and went straight to Class A Lakewood still a few months shy of his 19th birthday, and he posted a 4.02 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings. He comes in with long arm action but his command is just about as pinpoint as you could possibly expect from a teenager, and that makes him really interesting. He sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a so-so slider and an advanced changeup, which he mixes effectively against older competition. His stuff at present will not play in the majors no matter how good his command is, but with that box checked and then some, he has plenty of time to refine that pure stuff. Even a few small improvements, such as a bump into the low 90's with his fastball or some sharpening of his slider, could make him a back-end starter, and just the fact that he's such a refined pitcher at such a young age makes him really interesting.
- Kyle Young (2020 Age: 22): Young, a 22nd round pick out of a Long Island high school in 2016, opened a lot of eyes in 2018 with a 3.10 ERA and a 44/7 strikeout to walk ratio at Class A. The Phillies were excited to see what he could do in 2019, but after posting a 4.29 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings at High A Clearwater, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. Young is physically imposing, to say the least, at 6'10", though his pinpoint command is what makes him the prospect he is. His stuff is average and his fastball sometimes struggles to scrape 90, but it plays up not only due to the command but also due to his height and extension, giving the ball nice angle. 2020 will be mostly about getting his feet back under him, but he'll be 22 for the whole season and he has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if he can stay healthy.
- Gunner Mayer (2020 Age: 19-20): Mayer, a fifth round pick out of a California junior college in 2019, is a real sleeper, but I like him a lot. Having just turned 19 in July, he's very much a work in progress, but as a 6'6" righty with a loose arm, he will get a lot of patience from the Phillies. His fastball already sits in the low 90's, he gets nice depth on his curveball, and he also shows a slider and a changeup, his easy delivery making it seem very likely that the stuff could tick up. His command still needs some work, but all the building blocks are here and I think pro refinement could help him take a big step forward, if not immediately in 2020 then perhaps in 2021. Mark him down as a sleeper to watch.
- Keep an eye on: Bailey Falter, Colton Eastman, Nick Fanti, Ethan Evanko, Kevin Gowdy, Brett Schulze, Jose Conopoima
Relief Pitching
- Enyel De Los Santos (2020 Age: 24): Originally signed by the Mariners in 2014, De Los Santos went to the Padres for Joaquin Benoit in 2015 then to the Phillies for Freddy Galvis in 2017. He's now had two short stints up in the majors with the Phillies, posting a combined 5.70 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 innings, but he retains prospect status. In the minors in 2019, he had a 4.40 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 83/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley, and in most organizations he'd still have a chance to start, but the Phillies are so deep in starting pitching in the upper minors that he'll probably have to shift to the bullpen. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and while his curveball never really developed into anything special, he does have a nice changeup and decent enough command that have kept him in the rotation up to this point. In the bullpen, his fastball and changeup can play up, and his ability to go multiple innings will make him more than a matchup righty. He could also make spot starts where necessary, making him more of a pocket knife than a refined, one-role guy.
- Mauricio Llovera (2020 Age: 24): Llovera is probably in the same boat as De Los Santos. He pitched well in the low and mid minors and reached AA in 2019, posting a 4.55 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings as a starter for Reading, but the crowded rotation picture means he'll probably be better off in the bullpen. He's only 5'11" but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nice slider to go with a curveball and a changeup, all of which he commands fairly well, but he'll be able to scrap one of those pitches and allow his power stuff to play up in shorter stints. He's the kind of guy who could take a big step forward in the bullpen, so it will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle that in 2020.
- Connor Brogdon (2020 Age: 25): Brogdon already made his transition to the bullpen, and his 2.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 106/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings at High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and AAA Lehigh Valley were evidence that the transition went really well. The 6'6" righty has solid command of his mid 90's fastball and good slider, and with the ability to go multiple innings, he had one of the more impressive seasons among minor league relievers. Watch out for Brogdon to try to crack the Phillies bullpen in 2020, as he may have pushed himself past Kyle Dohy as the top pure-relief prospect in the system.
- Kyle Dohy (2020 Age: 23): Dohy's huge 2018, in which he struck out 111 batters in 67.1 innings across three levels, put him on the map, though 2019 was a bit rougher as advanced hitters started to punish his mistakes. He posted a 5.32 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 105/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings at AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley, showing both major league stuff and minor league command. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a swing and miss slider and a good changeup from a deceptive delivery, but his continued struggles with command likely mean that he'll be more of a seventh inning guy than a future closer. A small step forward with that command in 2020 should get him up to the majors.
- Dominic Pipkin (2020 Age: 20): Pipkin, the Phillies' ninth round pick out of an Oakland-area high school in 2018, is a starter for now, but his future is likely in the bullpen. In 2019, he had a 5.15 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 44/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.2 innings at Class A Lakewood, which are pretty ugly numbers until you realize he was 19 the whole time. Pipkin was fairly raw coming out of high school so I was a bit surprised when they sent him to full season ball to start 2019, and while his low 90's fastball was enough to get him through lineups of older hitters, the rest of his stuff wasn't quite consistent enough. He's more about projection than anything else, as he has a loose arm and a smooth delivery from a projectable 6'4" frame, and another year at the level might help him get back on track towards becoming a #3 or #4 starter. If he transitions to the bullpen, he could add some velocity and focus on one or two of his secondary pitches, then move more quickly than he would as a starter.
- Keep an eye on: Addison Russ, Jeff Singer, Andrew Schultz
Showing posts with label JoJo Romero. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JoJo Romero. Show all posts
Sunday, December 22, 2019
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Reviewing the Philadelphia Phillies Farm System
The Phillies are on the rise, and despite the slow start to 2016 first overall pick Mickey Moniak's career, so is their farm system. It's a balanced system that features plenty of both power and contact hitters, and the system is especially deep in pitching as they have managed to successfully develop many of their highly regarded arms into legitimate prospects.
Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, Short Season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies
The Headliner: RHP Sixto Sanchez
The first time I saw now-20 year old Sixto Sanchez pitch was in 2017 when his Class A Lakewood BlueClaws visited the Orioles' Delmarva Shorebirds. I don't remember the exact velocities, but the first at bat of the game, against the unfortunate Cole Billingsley, went something like this: 98 MPH for strike one, 99 for strike two, 100 just low for ball one, and lastly a disgusting curveball that Billingsley swung over top of for strike three. Sixto was just 18 at the time while Billingsley was 23, and Billingsley did not stand a chance. Sanchez was soon promoted to High A Clearwater, but he had to return there this season as he battled elbow inflammation, still posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 45/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings. He's just six feet tall and won't even be able to drink legally until July, but he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90's while adding a very good curveball and changeup, all three of which he can command very well. He can also manipulate his fastball to get movement on it down in the mid 90's range, and the overall package gives him true ace upside. Signed for just $35,000 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic, he has developed a very special right arm that could have made him the top pitching prospect in baseball had he been healthy this season, but he is nonetheless one of the top prospects in the game and should be joining Aaron Nola at the top of the Philadelphia rotation soon.
Drafted Bats: OF Cornelius Randolph, OF Mickey Moniak, OF Adam Haseley, 3B Alec Bohm, OF Dylan Cozens, and OF Matt Vierling
The Phillies have had some high draft picks recently and have used their last four first round picks on bats with mixed results. I'll start in 2015, when they took now-21 year old Cornelius Randolph with their first pick (tenth overall) out of a Georgia high school, and he has been fairly disappointing so far. He was at his best by slashing .250/.338/.402 with 13 home runs at High A Clearwater in 2017, but he dropped to .241/.324/.322 with just five home runs and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Reading this year. As a so-so defender in left field, his bat is his true calling card, so he'll have to reverse whatever happened in 2018 if he wants to stay relevant as a prospect. At his best, he shows a knack for hard contact, a patient approach, and an overall balanced skill set at the plate, but it hasn't clicked yet for any extended period of time at this point. In 2016, the Phillies selected another outfielder who is off to a slow start, first overall pick and now-20 year old Mickey Moniak. After a mediocre 2017 (5 HR, .236/.284/.341 at Class A Lakewood), he put up only slightly better numbers in 2018 by slashing .270/.304/.383 with five more home runs and a 100/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Clearwater. Fortunately for Phillies fans, Moniak heated up in the second half after slashing .254/.272/.321 with a 56/5 strikeout to walk ratio in the first half, moving that up to a .286/.332/.442 line and a 44/17 ratio after the break. He's skinny at 6'2" but doesn't look like he has much room to add more weight, his speed being his best tool. At the plate, he's more of a line drive/gap hitter than a power hitter, and while it's increasingly unlikely that he develops more than average pop, I still think there is a chance he can be an above average hitter both when it comes to getting on base and hitting for power. Defensively he may be able to stick in center field, his work ethic and feel for the game helping him in that regard. Don't expect a future star out of Moniak at this point, but he could still be a productive big league regular if he gets back on track. Now-22 year old Adam Haseley was the Phillies' first round pick (eighth overall) in 2017, and unlike Randolph and Moniak, he has had plenty of success. In 2018, he slashed .305/.361/.433 with 11 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 73/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Clearwater and Reading with no loss of production after the promotion, even when accounting for league/ballpark differences (Reading is very hitter friendly; Clearwater and the Florida State League in general, not so much). He is a very balanced player who makes easy contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, runs well, may be able to stick in center field defensively, and hits for just enough power to justify calling him an "impact bat." His walk rate is fairly low, but that is okay given his low strikeout rate and general knack for base hits. At this point, he has a high floor as a fourth outfielder because even if his development stagnates from here on out, he's good enough today to at least handle major league pitching. This past year, the Phillies took now-22 year old Alec Bohm out of Wichita State with the third overall pick, who then slashed a moderately disappointing .252/.335/.324 with a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio and without a home run in 40 games between complex ball and short season Williamsport. Small sample slow start aside, Bohm is truly an impact bat who can hit for power while also getting on base at a high rate, giving him middle of the order upside. At 6'5", he can blast balls a long way, and his plate discipline has improved consistently enough that it's easy to envision him adding more power without adding too many strikeouts. Defensively, he has work to do if he wants to stick at third base, but the bat will play even if he is forced to move over to first base and despite the slow start; don't worry about 40 games in complex/short season ball. Moving off of first round picks, 24 year old Dylan Cozens was a second round pick way back in 2012 from high school near Phoenix, and though his trip through the minors has been slow, he's just about ready for the majors. The 6'6" outfielder was long considered a projectable bat who could add a ton of power, then after hitting 38 home runs over his first four pro seasons from 2012-2015, he crushed 40 with (hitter friendly) Reading in 2016 then followed that up with 27 at AAA Lehigh Valley in 2017. This past year, he slashed .246/.345/.529 with 21 home runs and a 124/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games back at Lehigh Valley, then slashed .158/.273/.289 with one home run in a 26 game stint with the Phillies. His raw power is arguably the best in the system, possibly better than that of Bohm and Jhailyn Ortiz (more on Ortiz in the next section), but he strikes out far too much at this point and will have to make adjustments to survive at the major league level. I definitely don't see him as having an Aaron Judge-type breakout (Judge faced the same problems in the minors), but just a small improvement in his contact ability could make him a valuable pinch hitter or platoon bat and a big one (less likely) could make him an every day player down the road. Lastly, 22 year old Matt Vierling was a fifth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2018 who caught fire in the minors and slashed .321/.365/.496 with seven home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between Williamsport and Lakewood, handling the promotion to full season ball well and slashing .293/.342/.473 in his 50 games there. He has no standout tool but does a little bit of everything well, showing some power, on-base ability, and speed, as well as a strong arm from the outfield. He's likely a fourth outfielder down the road, but with his balanced skill set, lack of a glaring weakness, and hot start to his minor league career, more certainly is possible.
International Bats: OF Jhailyn Ortiz, 2B Daniel Brito, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SS Luis Garcia
The Phillies aren't as deep in bats signed internationally as they are with those they drafted, especially with Jose Gomez's disappointing season in High A, but there are a few bright spots here. 20 year old Jhailyn Ortiz hasn't quite lived up to his $4 million signing bonus from back in 2015, but he's still a solid prospect who slashed .225/.297/.375 with 13 home runs and a 148/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at Class A Lakewood. He packs tremendous raw power into his 6'3" frame, though South Atlantic League pitching found holes in his swing and was able to exploit them in 2018. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain in the outfield, where his strong arm helps him out, but he will have to start getting to his power consistently if he wants to remain one of the Phillies more well-regarded prospects. High A will be a real test in 2019, but he won't turn 21 until after the season and he has a chance to really define himself as a prospect. A tough transition will mean that Phillies fans will have to be patient and play more wait-and-see and I-wonder-if, but a few tweaks in his approach and a good season could take him from projection bat to true impact prospect. 21 year olds Daniel Brito and Arquimedes Gamboa find themselves in similar positions to each other, both coming off seasons where they didn't hit quite as well as hoped in A ball. Brito has the slightly better bat and he slashed .252/.307/.342 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an 83/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Lakewood and High A Clearwater, while Gamboa, with the better glove, slashed just .214/.304/.279 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 111/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games, all at Clearwater. Both lack much power and will have to rely on getting on base to move forward, and both have good enough approaches at the plate that they can realistically get by without power. Brito, a second baseman who has steadily improved his defense and should be above average there, has shown just a little more sock in his bat and probably has a better chance to hit at the major league level, while Gamboa is a good defender at shortstop who will need to do at least something offensively in order to keep moving up. At this point, both look like future utility infielders if they can't get the bats going, but both will also spend the whole season at 21 years old with plenty of A ball experience under their belt. Lastly, 18 year old Luis Garcia (not to be confused with ex-Phillies/now Angels reliever Luis Garcia or highly-regarded Nationals prospect Luis Garcia) was just signed for $2.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and spent 2018 in complex ball, slashing .369/.433/.488 with one home run, 12 stolen bases, and a 21/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games with the Phillies' Gulf Coast League affiliate. It was an exceptional debut for a 17 year old who skipped over the Dominican Summer League entirely as he sprayed line drives all over the park, showed great awareness of the strike zone, and played great defense at shortstop. Now, it's very important to take complex level (and even rookie/short season) stats with a grain of salt, as competition in the GCL varies from other Latin American teenagers, recent draftees, and higher-level players on rehab assignments, but you can't play much better than Garcia did and given the high expectations coming into the season, he's in a great spot. At 5'11", he's unlikely to develop much power, but his defense at shortstop will take the pressure off his bat and with his on-base ability, he could be one of the top prospects in the system a year from now.
High Minors Arms: LHP Cole Irvin, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Drew Anderson, LHP JoJo Romero, and RHP Connor Seabold
The Phillies have a good group of arms that are near-major league ready, and that's a very good thing considering the team is just beginning what it hopes will be a long stretch of contention. Interestingly, most of the pitchers in this group are about command over stuff, so they may end up with an abundance of back-end starters who can be used as trade bait. 24 year old Cole Irvin is the most complete pitcher up at the top, coming off a very strong year where he went 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley. With his low 90's fastball and full arsenal of average pitches from the left side, he has no true out pitch but mixes and locates everything extremely well, making all of his pitches play up and giving him a very good shot at sticking in the majors as a back-end, innings eating starter. He's already in the mix for a back-end spot out of spring training, and if he doesn't get it then, his name should be called upon early in the season. He'll be competing with 23 year old Ranger Suarez, a 6'1" lefty who posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 85/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AA Reading and Lehigh Valley, also adding 15 major league innings with a 5.40 ERA and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a fairly similar pitcher to Irvin who has moved through the minor leagues just as quickly, though his stuff is a hair better and his overall feel for pitching is just a hair behind. Unlike with Irvin, his changeup stands out among his other pitches and it, rather than an excellent feel for pitching like Irvin's, makes his other pitches play up. His command is just as good as Irvin's and it will be interesting to see who can hang on to that back-end spot, if not both. 23 year old Enyel De Los Santos, over from San Diego in the Freddy Galvis trade, is a different pitcher from both Irvin and Suarez and posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 110/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.2 innings at Lehigh Valley as well as a 4.74 ERA and a 15/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty whose fastball sits in the mid 90's and who adds a good changeup, but while Irvin and Suarez get by on their command, De Los Santos is closer to average in that regard. When he's hitting his spots, he can be a better pitcher than both, but of course the opposite is true when he isn't. He also comes with more reliever risk, but his stuff would play up in the bullpen and he could be very valuable in that regard. Watching the three of them battle for starts will be very interesting in 2019. 24 year old Drew Anderson is also in that mix, though I think he'll be the first of the four to end up in the bullpen after posting a 3.87 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Lehigh Valley this year. He has a low to mid 90's fastball plays up because of its movement, but he otherwise has fringe-average stuff that he controls pretty well. Despite the extra velocity, he's not quite on the same tier as Irvin and Suarez in terms of control types because his arsenal is not as deep and he hasn't been able to stay on the mound as consistently, but I think he could do well in the bullpen as soon as this season. Lastly, 22 year old JoJo Romero put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2017 in A ball (2.16 ERA, 128/36 K/BB) and followed that up with a solid run through AA in 2018, posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 100/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings with Reading. He's listed closer to the end of this section because he probably won't be major league ready straight out of spring training, but it is plausible that he ends up with the best career in the group. While he has no single standout swing and miss pitch, he can throw pretty much any pitch in the book but a knuckleball, giving him plenty of weapons to use in any count and any situation, and unlike many young pitchers with such deep arsenals, he commands everything pretty well. The six foot lefty is crafty and has a very nice combination of ceiling and floor, and he has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and maintain his ability to hit his spots with all of his pitches. 23 year old Connor Seabold is a control type who posted a 4.28 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 132/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Clearwater and Reading, keeping runners off the bases but also falling victim to the home run ball when he missed his spots in AA. Though his ERA jumped from 3.77 in High A to 4.91 in AA, he continued to be effective and even upped his strikeout rate from 23.8% to 25.5%, a modest jump but impressive nonetheless considering he was just drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the third round (83rd overall) in 2017. Like Irvin, none of his pitches stand out, but he hits his spots consistently enough that hitters don't get many mistakes to try to do something with. He has back-end potential.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP Kyle Dohy, RHP Adonis Medina, LHP David Parkinson, LHP Will Stewart, LHP Kyle Young, and RHP Francisco Morales
While most of the upper-minors pitchers are advanced control-types who get by more on instincts than stuff, there's more variation in the guys who aren't quite as close to the major leagues. In this group, Sixto Sanchez aside, 22 year old Kyle Dohy is the closest to the majors in this group, and he put up a crazy season statistically with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 111/42 strikeout to walk ratio over just 67.1 innings at Class A Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's a 6'2" left handed reliever with a great fastball/slider combination that misses bats in bunches and helped him strike out 40.7% of those he faced in 2018 (including 47.7% over 33.2 innings at Lakewood). However, his stuff also misses the strike zone as often as it misses bats, and he walked 15.4% of his opponents this year including 21.8% over his 22.2 innings at Reading. If he gets his command closer to average, he could be in the major leagues as soon as 2019, and in the long run he could be a very useful bullpen arm in Philadelphia. However, if he can't start at least getting close to hitting his spots, his stuff isn't quite electric enough to keep him from getting shelled in the major leagues. 22 year old Adonis Medina made it up to Clearwater in 2018 and posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 123/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings, which was not quite the breakout season the Phillies were hoping for out of their young righty but still solid. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's and adds solid secondary stuff in a slider and a changeup, and they along with his command have been sharp enough for him to post very good component ratios in A ball over the past two seasons. As it stands, he looks like a guy with mid-rotation upside and a larger possibility of ending up in the back-end of the rotation, but the Phillies are high on him and think he has a very good shot of reaching his ceiling. 2019 and his transition to AA should be enlightening. 23 year old David Parkinson absolutely dominated A ball in 2018, going 11-1 with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 141/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at Lakewood and Clearwater, though most of the season was spent facing younger competition down in Lakewood. The 2017 12th round pick out of Ole Miss made his average stuff play up in his first full pro season, and he has a much better chance to stick as a back-end starter than he did a year ago. The strong stint with Clearwater (1.24 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 29 IP) was probably better news than the equally strong 95.1 innings in Lakewood considering his age relative to his competition, but it will be important to see if his stuff holds up over a longer run through High A and in AA this coming season to really feel confident about his future as a starter. 21 year old Will Stewart also had a dominating run through Lakewood, going 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's more of a sleeper prospect as a lefty without a ton of velocity, a high draft pedigree (20th round out of high school in Alabama in 2015), or a quick rise through the minors. Still, he makes his good command of a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup work for him, and because he was young for his class when he was drafted, he's not behind age-wise even though he didn't reach full season ball until his fourth pro season. The Phillies do very well with these types of guys (see Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Connor Seabold up higher in the system) and while he looks more like a back-end starter right now, he could be a more well-known name come next season with success in High A. 21 year old Kyle Young posted a 2.73 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 50/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings mostly with Lakewood, and he's particularly interesting because he's just so darn tall. Standing 6'10" and coming at hitters from the left side, he throws fastballs that look like they're getting released right in front of your face and commands everything well for someone of his stature. While he doesn't throw as hard as a certain other 6'10" lefty (see Johnson, Randy), that command gives him a leg up and could make him a similar pitcher to right hander Chris Young (no relation). Injury risk is present though as he missed time in 2018 with elbow trouble, and personally there are quite a few other pitchers in this system that I see as better prospects. Lastly, 19 year old Francisco Morales doesn't quite have the numbers yet, but he's a high upside guy down in the low minors. The 6'4" righty posted a 5.27 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 68/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings with short season Williamsport in 2018, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and emerging secondary stuff. There is a lot he needs to work on, but the Phillies are high on him and with a big, durable frame, they see more velocity coming, with further improving his command and secondaries being the next lines on the to-do list. Think of him as a wild card for now, but he'll be interesting to track as a teenager in Class A next season.
Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, Short Season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies
The Headliner: RHP Sixto Sanchez
The first time I saw now-20 year old Sixto Sanchez pitch was in 2017 when his Class A Lakewood BlueClaws visited the Orioles' Delmarva Shorebirds. I don't remember the exact velocities, but the first at bat of the game, against the unfortunate Cole Billingsley, went something like this: 98 MPH for strike one, 99 for strike two, 100 just low for ball one, and lastly a disgusting curveball that Billingsley swung over top of for strike three. Sixto was just 18 at the time while Billingsley was 23, and Billingsley did not stand a chance. Sanchez was soon promoted to High A Clearwater, but he had to return there this season as he battled elbow inflammation, still posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 45/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings. He's just six feet tall and won't even be able to drink legally until July, but he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90's while adding a very good curveball and changeup, all three of which he can command very well. He can also manipulate his fastball to get movement on it down in the mid 90's range, and the overall package gives him true ace upside. Signed for just $35,000 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic, he has developed a very special right arm that could have made him the top pitching prospect in baseball had he been healthy this season, but he is nonetheless one of the top prospects in the game and should be joining Aaron Nola at the top of the Philadelphia rotation soon.
Drafted Bats: OF Cornelius Randolph, OF Mickey Moniak, OF Adam Haseley, 3B Alec Bohm, OF Dylan Cozens, and OF Matt Vierling
The Phillies have had some high draft picks recently and have used their last four first round picks on bats with mixed results. I'll start in 2015, when they took now-21 year old Cornelius Randolph with their first pick (tenth overall) out of a Georgia high school, and he has been fairly disappointing so far. He was at his best by slashing .250/.338/.402 with 13 home runs at High A Clearwater in 2017, but he dropped to .241/.324/.322 with just five home runs and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Reading this year. As a so-so defender in left field, his bat is his true calling card, so he'll have to reverse whatever happened in 2018 if he wants to stay relevant as a prospect. At his best, he shows a knack for hard contact, a patient approach, and an overall balanced skill set at the plate, but it hasn't clicked yet for any extended period of time at this point. In 2016, the Phillies selected another outfielder who is off to a slow start, first overall pick and now-20 year old Mickey Moniak. After a mediocre 2017 (5 HR, .236/.284/.341 at Class A Lakewood), he put up only slightly better numbers in 2018 by slashing .270/.304/.383 with five more home runs and a 100/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Clearwater. Fortunately for Phillies fans, Moniak heated up in the second half after slashing .254/.272/.321 with a 56/5 strikeout to walk ratio in the first half, moving that up to a .286/.332/.442 line and a 44/17 ratio after the break. He's skinny at 6'2" but doesn't look like he has much room to add more weight, his speed being his best tool. At the plate, he's more of a line drive/gap hitter than a power hitter, and while it's increasingly unlikely that he develops more than average pop, I still think there is a chance he can be an above average hitter both when it comes to getting on base and hitting for power. Defensively he may be able to stick in center field, his work ethic and feel for the game helping him in that regard. Don't expect a future star out of Moniak at this point, but he could still be a productive big league regular if he gets back on track. Now-22 year old Adam Haseley was the Phillies' first round pick (eighth overall) in 2017, and unlike Randolph and Moniak, he has had plenty of success. In 2018, he slashed .305/.361/.433 with 11 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 73/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Clearwater and Reading with no loss of production after the promotion, even when accounting for league/ballpark differences (Reading is very hitter friendly; Clearwater and the Florida State League in general, not so much). He is a very balanced player who makes easy contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, runs well, may be able to stick in center field defensively, and hits for just enough power to justify calling him an "impact bat." His walk rate is fairly low, but that is okay given his low strikeout rate and general knack for base hits. At this point, he has a high floor as a fourth outfielder because even if his development stagnates from here on out, he's good enough today to at least handle major league pitching. This past year, the Phillies took now-22 year old Alec Bohm out of Wichita State with the third overall pick, who then slashed a moderately disappointing .252/.335/.324 with a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio and without a home run in 40 games between complex ball and short season Williamsport. Small sample slow start aside, Bohm is truly an impact bat who can hit for power while also getting on base at a high rate, giving him middle of the order upside. At 6'5", he can blast balls a long way, and his plate discipline has improved consistently enough that it's easy to envision him adding more power without adding too many strikeouts. Defensively, he has work to do if he wants to stick at third base, but the bat will play even if he is forced to move over to first base and despite the slow start; don't worry about 40 games in complex/short season ball. Moving off of first round picks, 24 year old Dylan Cozens was a second round pick way back in 2012 from high school near Phoenix, and though his trip through the minors has been slow, he's just about ready for the majors. The 6'6" outfielder was long considered a projectable bat who could add a ton of power, then after hitting 38 home runs over his first four pro seasons from 2012-2015, he crushed 40 with (hitter friendly) Reading in 2016 then followed that up with 27 at AAA Lehigh Valley in 2017. This past year, he slashed .246/.345/.529 with 21 home runs and a 124/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games back at Lehigh Valley, then slashed .158/.273/.289 with one home run in a 26 game stint with the Phillies. His raw power is arguably the best in the system, possibly better than that of Bohm and Jhailyn Ortiz (more on Ortiz in the next section), but he strikes out far too much at this point and will have to make adjustments to survive at the major league level. I definitely don't see him as having an Aaron Judge-type breakout (Judge faced the same problems in the minors), but just a small improvement in his contact ability could make him a valuable pinch hitter or platoon bat and a big one (less likely) could make him an every day player down the road. Lastly, 22 year old Matt Vierling was a fifth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2018 who caught fire in the minors and slashed .321/.365/.496 with seven home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between Williamsport and Lakewood, handling the promotion to full season ball well and slashing .293/.342/.473 in his 50 games there. He has no standout tool but does a little bit of everything well, showing some power, on-base ability, and speed, as well as a strong arm from the outfield. He's likely a fourth outfielder down the road, but with his balanced skill set, lack of a glaring weakness, and hot start to his minor league career, more certainly is possible.
International Bats: OF Jhailyn Ortiz, 2B Daniel Brito, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SS Luis Garcia
The Phillies aren't as deep in bats signed internationally as they are with those they drafted, especially with Jose Gomez's disappointing season in High A, but there are a few bright spots here. 20 year old Jhailyn Ortiz hasn't quite lived up to his $4 million signing bonus from back in 2015, but he's still a solid prospect who slashed .225/.297/.375 with 13 home runs and a 148/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at Class A Lakewood. He packs tremendous raw power into his 6'3" frame, though South Atlantic League pitching found holes in his swing and was able to exploit them in 2018. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain in the outfield, where his strong arm helps him out, but he will have to start getting to his power consistently if he wants to remain one of the Phillies more well-regarded prospects. High A will be a real test in 2019, but he won't turn 21 until after the season and he has a chance to really define himself as a prospect. A tough transition will mean that Phillies fans will have to be patient and play more wait-and-see and I-wonder-if, but a few tweaks in his approach and a good season could take him from projection bat to true impact prospect. 21 year olds Daniel Brito and Arquimedes Gamboa find themselves in similar positions to each other, both coming off seasons where they didn't hit quite as well as hoped in A ball. Brito has the slightly better bat and he slashed .252/.307/.342 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an 83/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Lakewood and High A Clearwater, while Gamboa, with the better glove, slashed just .214/.304/.279 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 111/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games, all at Clearwater. Both lack much power and will have to rely on getting on base to move forward, and both have good enough approaches at the plate that they can realistically get by without power. Brito, a second baseman who has steadily improved his defense and should be above average there, has shown just a little more sock in his bat and probably has a better chance to hit at the major league level, while Gamboa is a good defender at shortstop who will need to do at least something offensively in order to keep moving up. At this point, both look like future utility infielders if they can't get the bats going, but both will also spend the whole season at 21 years old with plenty of A ball experience under their belt. Lastly, 18 year old Luis Garcia (not to be confused with ex-Phillies/now Angels reliever Luis Garcia or highly-regarded Nationals prospect Luis Garcia) was just signed for $2.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and spent 2018 in complex ball, slashing .369/.433/.488 with one home run, 12 stolen bases, and a 21/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games with the Phillies' Gulf Coast League affiliate. It was an exceptional debut for a 17 year old who skipped over the Dominican Summer League entirely as he sprayed line drives all over the park, showed great awareness of the strike zone, and played great defense at shortstop. Now, it's very important to take complex level (and even rookie/short season) stats with a grain of salt, as competition in the GCL varies from other Latin American teenagers, recent draftees, and higher-level players on rehab assignments, but you can't play much better than Garcia did and given the high expectations coming into the season, he's in a great spot. At 5'11", he's unlikely to develop much power, but his defense at shortstop will take the pressure off his bat and with his on-base ability, he could be one of the top prospects in the system a year from now.
High Minors Arms: LHP Cole Irvin, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Drew Anderson, LHP JoJo Romero, and RHP Connor Seabold
The Phillies have a good group of arms that are near-major league ready, and that's a very good thing considering the team is just beginning what it hopes will be a long stretch of contention. Interestingly, most of the pitchers in this group are about command over stuff, so they may end up with an abundance of back-end starters who can be used as trade bait. 24 year old Cole Irvin is the most complete pitcher up at the top, coming off a very strong year where he went 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley. With his low 90's fastball and full arsenal of average pitches from the left side, he has no true out pitch but mixes and locates everything extremely well, making all of his pitches play up and giving him a very good shot at sticking in the majors as a back-end, innings eating starter. He's already in the mix for a back-end spot out of spring training, and if he doesn't get it then, his name should be called upon early in the season. He'll be competing with 23 year old Ranger Suarez, a 6'1" lefty who posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 85/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AA Reading and Lehigh Valley, also adding 15 major league innings with a 5.40 ERA and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a fairly similar pitcher to Irvin who has moved through the minor leagues just as quickly, though his stuff is a hair better and his overall feel for pitching is just a hair behind. Unlike with Irvin, his changeup stands out among his other pitches and it, rather than an excellent feel for pitching like Irvin's, makes his other pitches play up. His command is just as good as Irvin's and it will be interesting to see who can hang on to that back-end spot, if not both. 23 year old Enyel De Los Santos, over from San Diego in the Freddy Galvis trade, is a different pitcher from both Irvin and Suarez and posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 110/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.2 innings at Lehigh Valley as well as a 4.74 ERA and a 15/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty whose fastball sits in the mid 90's and who adds a good changeup, but while Irvin and Suarez get by on their command, De Los Santos is closer to average in that regard. When he's hitting his spots, he can be a better pitcher than both, but of course the opposite is true when he isn't. He also comes with more reliever risk, but his stuff would play up in the bullpen and he could be very valuable in that regard. Watching the three of them battle for starts will be very interesting in 2019. 24 year old Drew Anderson is also in that mix, though I think he'll be the first of the four to end up in the bullpen after posting a 3.87 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Lehigh Valley this year. He has a low to mid 90's fastball plays up because of its movement, but he otherwise has fringe-average stuff that he controls pretty well. Despite the extra velocity, he's not quite on the same tier as Irvin and Suarez in terms of control types because his arsenal is not as deep and he hasn't been able to stay on the mound as consistently, but I think he could do well in the bullpen as soon as this season. Lastly, 22 year old JoJo Romero put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2017 in A ball (2.16 ERA, 128/36 K/BB) and followed that up with a solid run through AA in 2018, posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 100/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings with Reading. He's listed closer to the end of this section because he probably won't be major league ready straight out of spring training, but it is plausible that he ends up with the best career in the group. While he has no single standout swing and miss pitch, he can throw pretty much any pitch in the book but a knuckleball, giving him plenty of weapons to use in any count and any situation, and unlike many young pitchers with such deep arsenals, he commands everything pretty well. The six foot lefty is crafty and has a very nice combination of ceiling and floor, and he has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and maintain his ability to hit his spots with all of his pitches. 23 year old Connor Seabold is a control type who posted a 4.28 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 132/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Clearwater and Reading, keeping runners off the bases but also falling victim to the home run ball when he missed his spots in AA. Though his ERA jumped from 3.77 in High A to 4.91 in AA, he continued to be effective and even upped his strikeout rate from 23.8% to 25.5%, a modest jump but impressive nonetheless considering he was just drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the third round (83rd overall) in 2017. Like Irvin, none of his pitches stand out, but he hits his spots consistently enough that hitters don't get many mistakes to try to do something with. He has back-end potential.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP Kyle Dohy, RHP Adonis Medina, LHP David Parkinson, LHP Will Stewart, LHP Kyle Young, and RHP Francisco Morales
While most of the upper-minors pitchers are advanced control-types who get by more on instincts than stuff, there's more variation in the guys who aren't quite as close to the major leagues. In this group, Sixto Sanchez aside, 22 year old Kyle Dohy is the closest to the majors in this group, and he put up a crazy season statistically with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 111/42 strikeout to walk ratio over just 67.1 innings at Class A Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's a 6'2" left handed reliever with a great fastball/slider combination that misses bats in bunches and helped him strike out 40.7% of those he faced in 2018 (including 47.7% over 33.2 innings at Lakewood). However, his stuff also misses the strike zone as often as it misses bats, and he walked 15.4% of his opponents this year including 21.8% over his 22.2 innings at Reading. If he gets his command closer to average, he could be in the major leagues as soon as 2019, and in the long run he could be a very useful bullpen arm in Philadelphia. However, if he can't start at least getting close to hitting his spots, his stuff isn't quite electric enough to keep him from getting shelled in the major leagues. 22 year old Adonis Medina made it up to Clearwater in 2018 and posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 123/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings, which was not quite the breakout season the Phillies were hoping for out of their young righty but still solid. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's and adds solid secondary stuff in a slider and a changeup, and they along with his command have been sharp enough for him to post very good component ratios in A ball over the past two seasons. As it stands, he looks like a guy with mid-rotation upside and a larger possibility of ending up in the back-end of the rotation, but the Phillies are high on him and think he has a very good shot of reaching his ceiling. 2019 and his transition to AA should be enlightening. 23 year old David Parkinson absolutely dominated A ball in 2018, going 11-1 with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 141/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at Lakewood and Clearwater, though most of the season was spent facing younger competition down in Lakewood. The 2017 12th round pick out of Ole Miss made his average stuff play up in his first full pro season, and he has a much better chance to stick as a back-end starter than he did a year ago. The strong stint with Clearwater (1.24 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 29 IP) was probably better news than the equally strong 95.1 innings in Lakewood considering his age relative to his competition, but it will be important to see if his stuff holds up over a longer run through High A and in AA this coming season to really feel confident about his future as a starter. 21 year old Will Stewart also had a dominating run through Lakewood, going 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's more of a sleeper prospect as a lefty without a ton of velocity, a high draft pedigree (20th round out of high school in Alabama in 2015), or a quick rise through the minors. Still, he makes his good command of a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup work for him, and because he was young for his class when he was drafted, he's not behind age-wise even though he didn't reach full season ball until his fourth pro season. The Phillies do very well with these types of guys (see Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Connor Seabold up higher in the system) and while he looks more like a back-end starter right now, he could be a more well-known name come next season with success in High A. 21 year old Kyle Young posted a 2.73 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 50/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings mostly with Lakewood, and he's particularly interesting because he's just so darn tall. Standing 6'10" and coming at hitters from the left side, he throws fastballs that look like they're getting released right in front of your face and commands everything well for someone of his stature. While he doesn't throw as hard as a certain other 6'10" lefty (see Johnson, Randy), that command gives him a leg up and could make him a similar pitcher to right hander Chris Young (no relation). Injury risk is present though as he missed time in 2018 with elbow trouble, and personally there are quite a few other pitchers in this system that I see as better prospects. Lastly, 19 year old Francisco Morales doesn't quite have the numbers yet, but he's a high upside guy down in the low minors. The 6'4" righty posted a 5.27 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 68/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings with short season Williamsport in 2018, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and emerging secondary stuff. There is a lot he needs to work on, but the Phillies are high on him and with a big, durable frame, they see more velocity coming, with further improving his command and secondaries being the next lines on the to-do list. Think of him as a wild card for now, but he'll be interesting to track as a teenager in Class A next season.
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