2024 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

With their massive bonus pool, the Reds were essentially able to pull in two first round picks by floating Tyson Lewis down to the second round in exchange for a late first round bonus. There was an interesting theme here in which four of the first five college players they drafted were very well-known prospects as preps, with three of them even earning first round consideration at points in their high school careers. The Reds also valued bats that could stick up the middle and provide defensive value, something they've done in the past as well.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-2: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $9.79 million. Signing bonus: $9.25 million ($535,000 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #4.
The Reds are no stranger to successfully drafting pitchers extremely early, with names such as Rhett Lowder (#7, 2023), Nick Lodolo (#7, 2019), and Hunter Greene (#2, 2017) all gracing their current rotation. Chase Burns, meanwhile, has a chance to be the best of an already strong group. A well-known prep out of the Nashville area in 2021, his triple digit fastball placed him squarely in the top fifty conversation that year but he ultimately stayed home to attend Tennessee. His talent was immediately clear as he put up a huge freshman season in 2022, even earning National Freshman of the Year honors from some outlets, then put up another strong sophomore season in 2023 even if his ERA was a bit higher. Already a clear first round prospect, Burns rocked the college baseball world after the season by transferring to Wake Forest, where he hoped to leverage the program's famed pitching lab to push his game to even the next level. The stuff came out even crisper than before and his 191 strikeouts led Division I by a large margin, thirty ahead of White Sox #5 overall pick Hagen Smith (Arkansas). Burns is nothing short of a monster on the mound. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 102 in the past, coming in with big riding life from an over the top angle and strong extension. His slider is an absolutely filthy offering in the upper 80's with a lethal combination of power and sweep, a pitch he could tell you was coming and you could still never touch it. Burns also added a power curveball this year that he used less than his slider, but which still projects as plus with strong results. Lastly, he doesn't use it much but he's begun to work in a hard changeup around 90 to give lefties another look. While the operation looked a bit stiff in high school, he's smoothed out his delivery in Knoxville and Winston-Salem and now pounds the strike zone with average command and above average control, aggressively attacking hitters to force his way ahead in counts. A high-level competitor, he brings a ton of energy to the mound and will never back down from the moment. If there's one blemish, it's that his delivery and over the top arm path lack deception, which can lead to his fastball getting hit over the plate. He only allowed 32 runs all season, but he served up fourteen long balls. If the 6'3" righty can improve his fastball command just a tick or two, he has a shot to be the ace of a rotation full of top ten picks.

2-51: SS Tyson Lewis, Millard West HS [NE] {video}
Slot value: $1.8 million. Signing bonus: $3.05 million ($1.25 million above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #39. Baseball America: #43.
After saving half a million on Chase Burns, the Reds essentially leveraged that into another first round pick by signing Tyson Lewis to roughly the slot value for the #29 pick here at #51, steering him away from an Arkansas commitment. While MLB Pipeline and Baseball America's rankings may see that as an overpay, I'm a big fan of the pick and I think he has a chance to be the next star in what has become a long line of talented Reds infielders. A native of tiny Yutan, Nebraska, just past the ever-creeping sprawl of Omaha's cookie cutter HOA developments, he transferred from Yutan High School to local powerhouse Millard West High School in the suburbs to get more exposure. First and foremost, Lewis stands out for his athleticism. He has, without exaggeration, some of the most explosive hands in the class that help him fling the bat through the zone with ease while doing damage all over the plate. When he stays within himself, he shows easy average power, though he can get caught trying to do too much and that can artificially lengthen his swing. As he fills out his projectable 6'2" frame, he should grow into above average power, giving him a shot at 20+ home runs per season. The hit tool has been less consistent, though he is trending in the right direction and the Reds are confident he'll continue to do so. Meanwhile, Lewis shines in the dirt with quick feet and plus speed that give him a great shot to stick at shortstop in the long run. He'll have to clean up his overall glovework, but the physical tools are all there and again, the Reds are confident he can do so. If it all comes together, he has a shot to become a potential 20-20 shortstop. You can teach all kinds of skills but you can't teach the way this man moves on the diamond.

CBB-71: RHP Luke Holman, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.11 million. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($113,100 below slot value).
My rank: #57. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #40.
These last two Reds picks just go to show the unpredictability of the draft, as Baseball America had Luke Holman ranked ahead of Tyson Lewis, but Lewis went twenty picks earlier and signed for triple the money. Holman followed a similar path to Chase Burns as a well-known prep out of the Reading, Pennsylvania area who had interest in the top five rounds but made it to campus at Alabama instead. Spending 2022 as a reliever, he turned in a strong season in the Crimson Tide rotation in 2023 and like Burns, transferred to a powerhouse program, though he went to LSU amid coaching drama in Tuscaloosa. In Baton Rouge, Holman came out of the gate absolutely untouchable with 25.2 consecutive scoreless innings, including a dozen strikeout performance against Texas and six hitless innings against Xavier (a feat he later repeated against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). While he didn't quite hold that pace against better hitters in the SEC, he was one of the few power conference pitchers to turn in ace-like numbers in a year where offense was up across the board and it felt like everyone was playing in Coors Field, and the Reds are thrilled to get him for a much lower signing bonus than many expected. Despite the performance, the stuff doesn't jump off the page. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with big riding and running life, negated just a bit by a high release point. He throws two breaking balls, mostly leaning on his above average slider with nice late tilt while adding a fringy curveball with truer 12-6 break. Holman doesn't use his changeup much and it's below average. The 6'4" righty stands out most for his fastball command, which helps him elicit chases at a higher rate than most fastballs and limit hard contact. He's gotten better at commanding his offspeed stuff as well, and overall he has run walk rates under 10% in all three of his collegiate seasons. Holman is a smart pitcher who controls at bats and could move quickly through the minors, though his ceiling may be a bit limited to that of a #3 or #4 starter given the lack of true strikeout stuff.

3-87: OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern {video}
Slot value: $865,800. Signing bonus: $863,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #70.
The Reds are buying low on Mike Sirota in hopes that he turns things around and returns to form. One of the best hitters in the Northeast as a sophomore, he eased concerns about the level of pitching he faced in the CAA by slashing .281/.395/.430 over 41 games and two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Entering 2024, he was considered a consensus first round prospect and even heard his name thrown around in top ten conversations as the best mid major prospect in the country. Unfortunately, 2024 did not go as planned as pitchers completely stopped throwing to him, and his batting average dropped from .344 to .298 and his slugging percentage from .674 to .513. When Sirota is going right, you'd be hard pressed to find a better all-around player in the country. Listed at 6'3", 190 pounds, he has an ideal frame packed with lean strength and with projection remaining. Like Tyson Lewis, he has elite hands in the box to unleash a lightning quick bat, enabling him to see the ball deep and spray the ball around the field with authority. With a bit of an uppercut, he can make his average power play up in games and he blasted eighteen home runs in 2023, back when he was getting pitches to hit. Sirota is an extremely patient hitter as well, running elite chase rates and walking in 23% of his plate appearances in 2024, helping him finish a 143 game Northeastern career with an impressive .457 on-base percentage. While he doesn't chase, the primary hole in Sirota's game has always been swing and miss. He has run higher strikeout rates than you'd like in the CAA, even in 2023 when he was at his best, and also struck out 23.7% of the time in his two years on the Cape. You can sneak high heat by him and he'll swing through high quality breaking balls in the zone, so if you know how to pitch him, you can get him out. Not only will Sirota have to regain the form he had in 2023, he'll also need to remedy the in-zone swing and miss that has always been an issue. Defensively, the Queens native has the potential to be a plus defender in center field with his plus speed and plus arm. That takes pressure off the bat and gives him a nice floor as a glove-first fourth outfielder. The Reds think they can get him back to his old self, where he entered the 2024 season with projections of hitting 20-25 home runs per season with high, walk-driven on-base percentages. If you squint, and if he can make a little more contact, you can see a right handed Brandon Nimmo-like package here.

4-117: 2B Peyton Stovall, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $618,800. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($6,200 above slot value).
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #77. Baseball America: #123.
Continuing a bit of a theme, Peyton Stovall was also considered a top prospect for the 2021 draft out of high school. In fact, Stovall was considered an even better prospect than both Burns and Holman that year following a massive senior season at Haughton High School outside of Shreveport (alma mater of Dak Prescott) in which he torched northern Louisiana pitching. Despite being firmly in the first round conversation, he held firm on his commitment to Arkansas and as the #25 player on my board, he ranked as the top position player and #2 overall prospect reaching campus that year behind UCLA's (and now the A's') Gage Jump. A starter in Fayetteville from day one, he battled nagging injuries throughout his time there and didn't quite break out until this year, where he re-established himself as an early round draft prospect. Stovall doesn't have a standout tool, but the whole is greater than the sum of his parts. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple left handed swing and adjustable hands, totaling out to above average bat to ball ability. Combine that with a patient approach and it's an above average hit tool, though his strikeout rate has been just a bit higher than you'd expect given the high contact and low chase rates. While he's not huge at 5'11", his strong pitch recognition helps him turn balls when he needs to and tap his average power in games, giving his overall offensive profile a nice projection for something like 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages. Stovall is not the most explosive athlete with fringy defensive tools across the board, but he's gritty in the dirt and gets the job done with a steady glove and willingness to go all out for balls in the hole. That gives him every chance to stick at second base and potentially fill in at third base in a reserve role, though his arm would be stretched there. This is a well-rounded profile that strikes you as the kind you'd like to have in your dugout. In his brief pro debut, he slashed .235/.355/.333 with more walks (9) than strikeouts (7) in sixteen games for Low A Daytona.

5-150: LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $448,700. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($151,300 above slot value).
My rank: #151. MLB Pipeline: #73. Baseball America: #81.
And what do you know, we have another former top high school prospect, this time from the 2022 class. Tristan Smith was considered one of the better high school pitchers in the country that year and had his name on the fringes of the first round conversation, but he wound up at Clemson where he put up two solid seasons. The profile is pretty similar to what it was two years ago. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, albeit with average movement. His slider is his best pitch, flashing plus with sharp two plane bite, while his above average changeup was one of the better left handed cambios in this class. The 6'2" lefty creates some deception with a crossfire delivery that makes it difficult to pick up the ball, but he can also be a bit of a stiff mover. His fastball command is subpar at this point and makes it difficult to get ahead and stay ahead in counts, running a walk rate over 15% for his career. Interestingly, he does command the slider well which further plays into its projection as a plus pitch. There are clear things to work on here, notably the fastball command and fastball movement profile, but there are also clear separators here as a physical lefty with two above average offspeed pitches. He also showed very well against elite competition in the Cape Cod League last summer (3.29 ERA, 38/14 K/BB in 27.1 innings) and has a long track record of performance going back to his prep days. After signing for fourth round money as a draft-eligible sophomore, Smith has a chance to pitch his way into a mid-rotation starting role if he can figure out his fastball, with a fallback as a three pitch lefty reliever.

8-239: RHP Luke Hayden, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $217,400. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($19,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #400.
Luke Hayden is a semi-local pick for the Reds. Having grown up just over one hundred miles west of Cincinnati in in Bloomington, Indiana, where he attended Edgewood High School in nearby Ellettsville, he stayed home for school and spent two years at Indiana University. He struggled there with an ERA over seven and a WHIP nearing two, then transferred to Indiana State for a much better junior season. He committed to transfer once more to LSU in 2025, but took the Reds offer here in the eighth round instead. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97-98 at peak, showing high spin but overall average movement. Like Smith, his go-to offspeed is an above average slider with hard, late snap, a pitch which can get both lefties and righties out. Without much of a changeup, combined with a high effort delivery that leads to below average command, he projects as a reliever in pro ball. In that role, the fastball velocity could climb even higher to offset the lack of life and he could pitch more consistently off of his slider. In four relief appearances for Low A Daytona, he allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings while striking out six and walking two.

10-299: C Yanuel Casiano, Albergue Olimpico Academy [PR] {video}
Slot value: $182,200. Signing bonus: $122,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #438.
In Yanuel Casiano, the Reds have picked up the single youngest player in the entire draft. The only player in the class born in 2007, he won't even turn 18 until just before his first spring training. Previously a UCF commit, he will instead take his time and move slowly through the Reds system. Casiano is a glove-first catcher who has impressed evaluators with plus arm strength and quickness out of the crouch, though the accuracy isn't quite there yet and his throws can pull infielders off the bag. He's a solid defender behind the plate who as you'd expect has lots of work to do to refine things, but among his age group peers, he's exactly where he needs to be to become a big league caliber catcher. The bat is a bit behind. He hasn't performed much against high level showcase competition and didn't send evaluators home thinking they had the next Mike Piazza on their hands this spring. There's some pop to the pull side, but not enough to be a separator. The Reds see an extremely young kid who should have only been a high school junior last year and expect significant strength gains as he matures, with a sturdy 6' frame that could carry plenty of muscle in time. If all goes well, he has a chance to be a glove-first backup catcher with enough power to keep pitchers honest.

15-449: RHP Jordan Little, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jordan Little may have ran an 8.58 ERA over the course of his three year college career, but the Reds see big stuff and think they can get the most out of it. He began his career at East Carolina, where he made just five appearances over two seasons and allowed eight runs over 2.2 innings, then transferred to Virginia Tech. He got blown up at times and ran a 6.66 ERA, but that number drops to 2.74 if you remove his three worst appearances out of 21 and he looked as sharp as anybody on the roster when he was at his best. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 96 and coming in with hard running action from a lower release point. That gives him a real above average fastball, one which should continue to chew up bats in pro ball. He actually throws his slider more than his fastball, a big breaking two-plane breaker in the low 80's that missed a ton of bats in 2024 despite its high usage. Little is athletic on the mound and despite his name brings plenty of projection in his ideal 6'4" frame. There is some jerk in his delivery, but the command is actually pretty solid and his poor results were more a matter of inconsistent feel for his stuff rather than inconsistent command. He's likely a reliever all the way, though with two above average pitches, projection remaining, and solid command for a reliever, he has a chance to earn meaningful innings in Cincinnati.

2023 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

The Reds went all over the place playing games with their bonus pool, not handing out a signing bonus anywhere close to slot value (either way above or way below) until their sixth pick. They went way above slot on a trio of high schoolers in second rounder Sammy Stafura, fourth rounder Cole Schoenwetter, and fourteenth rounder Kyle Henley, paying for those overages with sizable below slot bonuses to first rounder Rhett Lowder and third rounder Hunter Hollan in addition to other smaller scale savings elsewhere. Overall, I like a lot of the talent they pulled in and I can at least see the logic in the picks I didn't like as much, and you can't deny that there is a ton of talent in this class. Interestingly, only three of the nine pitchers the Reds drafted and signed have gotten on a mound in games so far, and only two have thrown more than one inning total.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-7: RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $6.28 million. Signing bonus: $5.7 million ($575,200 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #8. Prospects Live: #9.
LSU ace and eventual first overall pick Paul Skenes deservedly earned most of the buzz this spring among college pitchers, but Skenes aside, no pitcher in the country was as impressive as Rhett Lowder. Already the reigning ACC Pitcher of the Year from 2022, he put together an unbelievable 2023 with a 1.87 ERA and a 143/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park and in an era of increased offense around college baseball. Lowder has always shown impressive pitchability, enabling him to jump into the Wake Forest rotation as a true freshman, and now with improved stuff he has become an elite prospect. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 97 with some run. He shows strong feel for an above average slider that has gotten better and better, with some flashing plus. His changeup is a true weapon and his best pitch, consistently grading out as plus while flashing plus-plus. Everything plays up because Lowder sequences and locates his entire pitch mix extremely effectively, with plus command that lets him attack hitters however he wants to. The 6'2" righty has an uptempo delivery but repeats it extremely well, effectively channeling energy up the chain and helping him maintain his stuff deep into starts. In an era of high energy pitchers modeling their games after guys like Max Scherzer, Lowder provides a bit of a contrast with a calmer demeanor as he quietly carves up opposing lineups. He's a watercolor artist in his spare time and looks like an artist up there on the mound, where his attention to detail makes him a bit of a throwback prospect. Besides Skenes, there is not a safer bet to become a mid-rotation starter in this draft class.

CBA-38: RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($127,600 below slot value).
My rank: #55. MLB Pipeline: #58. Baseball America: #44. Prospects Live: #55.
Ty Floyd has been a known commodity to scouts for a long time now. A star at Rockmart High School in Northwest Georgia, he ranked as the #98 player on my board in 2020 but elected to attend LSU to help build what would become a National Championship program. Eligible as a sophomore in 2022 due to an early birthday, he looked good but hadn't quite put it together yet, coming in at #198 on my board. In 2023, he slowly crept up boards throughout the season and pushed back into the top one hundred range, then saw his stock explode with a magnificent seventeen strikeout performance against Florida in that National Championship series. Overall, he finished the season with a 4.35 ERA and a 120/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings and eventually pushed his way all the way into the top forty picks. Floyd is a great athlete that sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, coming in with deceptive riding life from a lower slot and short arm action. Previously all arm strength, his secondaries have stepped forward that year and that made all of the difference in his profile. He now complements his average curveball with a new, above average slider, while a previously below average changeup has stepped forward to become a usable weapon. His command has improved from below average to fringy as he smoothed out his delivery, though that is one area the Reds would like to see him continue making progress. Between the arm strength, athleticism, physicality (listed at 6'2", 200 pounds), and positive trajectory on his secondaries and command, the Reds believe they have a mid-rotation starter on their hands with some real upside.

2-43: SS Sammy Stafura, Walter Panas HS [NY] {video}
Slot value: $2 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($499,300 above slot value).
My rank: #24. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #33. Prospects Live: #25.
The Reds got a tremendous talent here in Sammy Stafura, and for half a million above slot vale, they really didn't have to break the bank to sign him away from a Clemson commitment. He was a known prospect heading into the spring, but really pushed his stock up with a tremendous performance once the New York weather warmed up. Stafura has always been a high contact bat, with quick hands and excellent feel for the barrel that help him keep swing and miss to a minimum, even against high quality competition. The bat path is a bit swoopy and will need to be ironed out so he can get more extension, but he's a cold weather bat and it hasn't hindered him yet. Though he's not huge at 6', 190 pounds, he has filled out a bit and now projects for average power, which will go great with his above average hit tool. Overall, it will be plenty of bat to profile in an every day role because he has a chance to be a plus defender at shortstop. Beyond his plus speed, he shows great body control at the shortstop position with a strong arm that makes him a great fit to stick there long term. There are some questions about his bat coming from a lower competition level in New York's Hudson Valley region, though from what I saw over the summer he had no issues with advanced pitching. I see him as a high on-base guy with the ability to pop 15-20 home runs per season and swipe a few bags while playing strong defense. He got off to a poor start in the Arizona Complex League, where he slashed .071/.212/.190 with one home run and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he'll look to turn it around in 2024.

3-74: LHP Hunter Hollan, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $975,100. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($377,600 below slot value).
My rank: #155. MLB Pipeline: #100. Baseball America: #144. Prospects Live: #150.
The Reds went for a little more safety here with Hunter Hollan, a college arm with some strong SEC performance under his belt. Hollan began his career at San Jacinto JC in Houston, then transferred to Arkansas for his junior season and looked like a star in fall practice, where his stuff ticked up across the board. It settled back down in 2023, where he finished with a 4.13 ERA and a 74/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.2 innings, and the Reds signed him for a significant discount in the third round by giving him mid-fourth round money. After fluctuating a little, he now sits in the low 90's with his fastball, which topped at 97 in the fall, and he can work it into a hard cutter around 90 when he wants some movement. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which have big depth but may benefit from some added power. An average changeup rounds out the arsenal. The 6'5" lefty is probably more of a pitchability guy at this point, effectively commanding both his fastball and his offspeed stuff to both sides of the plate so he can work them off each other and execute the game plan. There's still some projection remaining on his big frame too, so if he regains the added power he had in the fall of 2022, he has a shot to become a mid-rotation starter. The more likely role is probably that of a back-end starter since he doesn't really have a putaway pitch at this point, but with his deep arsenal, size, and pitching acumen, he should develop into a nice innings eater for the Reds. 

4-105: RHP Cole Schoenwetter, San Marcos HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $640,300. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($1.26 million above slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #43. Baseball America: #54. Prospects Live: #63.
Here in the fourth round, the Reds spent massively above slot to reel in Cole Schoenwetter, giving him close to the slot value for the #45 pick to sign away from a UC Santa Barbara commitment here in the fourth round. He brings a great combination of stuff, projectability, and and athleticism, and the Reds are betting big on his front of the rotation upside. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 at best, with riding and running action from a lower release point that make it very tough to square up. He flashes plus with a big, power curveball with two plane action and also shows an inconsistent changeup, though it too looks like an above average pitch at best and should get there consistently with more refinement. The 6'3" righty has better command than you would expect from someone with stuff as explosive as his, though he can be prone to overthrowing and goes through bouts of wildness. The development path is pretty clear here. Schoenwetter will need to refine that changeup a little bit, which should be accomplishable by repetition alone, and he'll need to learn to better keep his long arms and legs in sync as he works through his delivery. Given his feel for spin, it would be nice to add a slider to give hitters another look, but that would be icing on the cake. If the Southern California native can accomplish those things, he has a chance to be an impact arm for the Reds.

5-141: C Connor Burns, Long Beach State {video}
Slot value: $451,100. Signing bonus: $448,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #169. Baseball America: #130. Prospects Live: #233.
Connor Burns was on my radar at the end of the draft cycle, but he was among the next group of names that I didn't quite get around to researching (it always has to end somewhere). Burns has a unique profile, and it will be fun to track his progress. He was completely useless with the bat over his first two seasons at Long Beach State, slashing .161/.219/.249 with four home runs and an ugly 82/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 games, but he still got his name penciled in every day because of his defense. Burns is an elite defensive catcher, and that may be putting it lightly. He's extremely twitchy for a catcher, popping out of his crouch as quickly as anybody to make plays on balls other catchers can't reach. It also helps him put his throws right on the money to cut down potential stolen bases no matter where the pitch is. Few catchers I've ever seen can make a play on a ball in the dirt and to his left or right and recover in time to cut down a runner. He can throw from multiple angles with precise accuracy, and beyond that, his plus-plus arm strength means he's getting it there in a hurry. In today's era of larger bases and more steals, that's an extremely valuable profile to have. So if he can hit at all, that's huge. Fortunately, Burns broke out with the bat in 2023, slashing .300/.368/.596 with 14 home runs and a 59/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. After striking out 38.1% of the time over his first two seasons while walking just 5.6% of the time, he brought those together with a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate. He's still an aggressive hitter, but the chase rate is now under control, though he swings and misses a lot on balls both inside and outside the zone and that's an area for concern. He does show average power with a 90th percentile exit velocity approaching 105, and he homered four times in 23 games on the Cape last summer despite otherwise struggling with the bat. With his elite defense, the Southern California native should have a pretty safe path to the big leagues as a light hitting backup catcher. If he can make just enough contact to tap his power in games, he could play every day and hit at the bottom of the lineup. So far, he's slashing .173/.304/.373 with three home runs and a 43/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you might expect given his profile.

6-168: OF Ethan O'Donnell, Virginia {video}
Slot value: $348,400. Signing bonus: $307,500 ($40,900 below slot value).
My rank: #193. MLB Pipeline: #153. Baseball America: #153. Prospects Live: #119.
Ethan O'Donnell began his career at Northwestern, then transferred to UVA for his junior season and put up a huge year, slashing .354/.448/.587 with 13 home runs and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. There is no standout tool here, but his track record of performance speaks for itself. He uses a whippy left handed swing to spray line drives around the field while showing some pop to the pull side, though with below average top end exit velocities, I'm not sure how much he'll be able to tap that power in pro ball. He's an aggressive hitter, but he makes it work by making plenty of contact both inside and outside the zone, and he made the jump from Big Ten to ACC pitching with ease last spring. Meanwhile, he's an above average runner with a strong glove in center field, likely enough to stick there long term. I see him as bit of a similar pick to last year's CBB pick Justin Boyd, with fourth outfielder upside if he can hold back on quality offspeed stuff and continue to make the most of his modest raw power in games. He's off to the hottest start in the Reds' draft class, slashing .326/.423/.537 with four home runs and a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.

8-221: 1B Carter Graham, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $215,400. Signing bonus: $212,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #221. Baseball America: #218. Prospects Live: #285.
In Carter Graham, the Reds are buying the power exclusively. He barely played as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore in 2022, when he slashed .331/.399/.642 with 22 home runs and established himself as one of the best hitters in the conference, but he struggled over the summer on the Cape (.200/.262/.293) and got off to a slow start in 2023. After hitting .067 over his first eight games, he slowly started to turn it around through March and April but never really got going until May, where he turned on the jets and ended up finishing the season slashing .315/.390/.558 with 15 home runs and a 55/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. Graham has tremendous raw power that has helped him blast 37 home runs in 138 games over the past two seasons, and it will no doubt play up in pro ball. The hit tool is a bit more questionable, but he can get aggressive and doesn't have the pure bat to ball skills to make up for swinging at bad pitches. It's a quick right handed swing but it can get swoopy and stiff at times, likely playing in to that below average hit tool. At 6'2", 230 pounds, the Los Angeles native doesn't look like an athlete but he moves pretty well at first base, so while that's about the only position he can play with his below average speed, he'll make it work. His defensive limitations will put pressure on his bat, and unless he takes a step forward with his hit tool, he likely profiles as a platoon bat or bench option. So far, he's slashing .205/.321/.318 with one home run and a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona.

11-318: 1B Jack Moss, Texas A&M {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: #209. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #191. Prospects Live: #166.
Jack Moss was the very last player on my rankings, but he's still an interesting prospect. He spent his freshman season at Arizona State before transferring to Texas A&M as a sophomore, where he has done nothing but rake to the tune of a .368/.447/.493 slash line, ten home runs, and a 93/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games in two seasons. Moss is an extraordinarily professional hitter that takes great at bats, running low chase rates and high contact rates on his way to walking more than he struck out in 2023. It's an opposite field-heavy approach, as he loves to get his hands inside the ball and drive them to left even on inside pitches. This inside-out approach does limit his power, and trying to elevate the ball more in 2023 didn't help his in-game power output. He doesn't leave the yard often and he doesn't always drive the ball with authority, leading to a well below average 90th percentile exit velocity which is concerning. He does show solid pull side power when he turns on the ball, but does so much more effectively on a line than in the air. The Reds could try to overhaul his approach a little bit and bump that 40 grade power up to 50 by sacrificing some hit tool, but I'm not sure he's built for that. Meanwhile, he's limited defensively and he'll need to hit for impact to work his way up, so he may not have a choice. So far, he's slashing .303/.405/.333 with a 20/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Daytona, which is about what you'd expect from his profile.

14-408: OF Kyle Henley, Denmark HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $395,000 ($245,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #269. Prospects Live: #437.
The Reds pulled out the checkbook one more time here in the fourteenth round, where they gave Kyle Henley fifth round money to sign away from a Georgia Tech commitment. He's going to take some patience to develop, as he's fairly raw, but there is a ton of upside. Henley immediately stands out for his elite speed, which is truly a game changer when he gets a chance to turn it loose. A right handed hitter, he has very quick hands in the box that help him fling the barrel through the zone in a hurry. He's extremely projectable at 6'3", 180 pounds, so while the power isn't really there yet, he has a very good chance to grow into it with his size and bat speed. The hit tool is coming along as well, looking better in the spring against strong Atlanta-area competition than it did last summer against national showcase competition. All put together, the upside is tremendous, though of course it needs to be put together. Henley's plus-plus speed also helps him in center field, where he shows a solid arm and could develop into a well above average defender. He saw brief action in the Arizona Complex League, picking up three singles in thirteen at bats (.231 AVG) while striking out five times in four games.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

I really like what the Reds did here. They had a ton of draft capital with five of the first 94 picks, and they used it. They didn't expect top ten talent Cam Collier to fall into their lap at pick #18, so they changed their entire draft strategy to make it work. After signing Collier for well over a million dollars above slot value, they went below slot value for each of the next eleven picks to make up for it, and also counted each many picks' $2,500 signing contingency bonus (which comes in addition to the draft bonus and does not count against the pool) as part of the bonus, saving a few extra pennies here and there. They drafted some very interesting bats early on (though I thought Justin Boyd was the one questionable pick here), then went for stuff above all else with picks like Bryce Hubbart, Kenya Huggins, Zach Maxwell, and Ben Brutti. They actually spent much of the latter portion of the draft on arms, drafting twelve pitchers with their final thirteen picks, with the lone position player in that range, Mason Neville, not even signing.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-18: 3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC. My rank: #6.
Slot value: $3.66 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($1.34 million above slot value).
If you told Reds general manager Nick Krall in April that he would be getting Cam Collier in the first round, he would likely have been happy to hear that. If you told him the day before the draft that he would be getting Collier, he would have probably laughed in your face, as multiple teams throughout the top ten picks were rumored to be very in on the young hitter. As it went, those clubs went different directions, and soon signability pushed him to the Reds with the 18th pick. They gave him roughly the slot value for the tenth overall pick, more than a million above their own slot value, to sign him away from a Louisville commitment. So who is this kid that Cincinnati was happy to upend its draft strategy over? Cam Collier was actually supposed to be a junior in high school, but he earned his GED and graduated not one, but two years early from Mount Paran Christian Academy in the Atlanta area to attend Chipola Junior College, much like Bryce Harper more than a decade earlier. Despite being just 17 years old and facing kids who were mostly 19-21 years old, Collier more than held his own by slashing .333/.419/.537 with eight home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He then went to the Cape Cod League and further impressed evaluators by looking right at home against the best 19-21 year olds in the country. This is all because, year of age for year of age, he is probably the most advanced amateur hitter in the country. He takes extremely professional at bats, controlling the strike zone with ease against much older pitching with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. Collier shows off above average raw power from the left side of the plate, a product of a sturdy, mature 6'2" frame and a sweet, loose, simple swing. He finds the barrel very consistently and sprays deep line drives to all fields, and in pro ball could profile for 20-25 home runs a year with on-base percentages approaching .400. While he probably won't win any Gold Gloves, he is a very capable defender at third base with solid actions around the bag and enough arm strength to stick there. The Reds of course are buying the bat, and if anybody in this class could reach the majors as a teenager, it will probably be Collier. Teenager in this case gives him until the end of the 2024 season, so he would have 2023-2024 to rise through the ranks and make it happen.

1C-32: 3B Sal Stewart, Westminster Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #65.
Slot value: $2.37 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($275,500 below slot value).
Sal Stewart was rumored to be one of the toughest signs in the draft with an extremely firm commitment to Vanderbilt in his pocket, and it took the Reds drafting him about a full round ahead of where he was projected to stop that from happening. If you want a comp, then you'll really like this one if you follow college baseball: Tommy White. Last year, it seems like evaluators (myself included) slept on White a little bit out at IMG Academy because he was a right handed hitting likely first baseman with body concerns, and he made us all regret it by blasting 27 home runs as a true freshman this year. The Reds front office likely saw what White was doing in Raleigh, looked at Stewart, and said "nah, we're not letting that happen again." Also a bigger bodied right handed hitting high school first baseman, Stewart has a similarly impressive track record of hitting and could give the Reds a true middle of the order bat. He's a very disciplined hitter that has been seen a lot on the showcase circuit and has performed well throughout, but he stands out for his plus raw power from a compact uppercut. He's big and strong at a listed 6'3", 215 pounds, and he should only get stronger as he matures. At this point, he's such a natural hitter that he can get away with letting his mechanics get out of whack, and he's strong enough to still do damage even when he's lunging forward or losing the connection between his upper and lower body. That should be a relatively easy fix for the player development program, and Stewart ultimately has a chance to club 30+ home runs a year with good on-base percentages if everything breaks right. Drafted as a third baseman, the Miami native will likely move to first base in pro ball with clunky actions around the bag and below average speed. If you want another comp, Pete Alonso makes sense as well.

2-55: C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State. My rank: #73.
Slot value: $1.37 million. Signing bonus: $1.03 million ($346,500 below slot value).
The Reds draft catchers like clockwork, and Logan Tanner makes it eight drafts in a row where they took one in the first seven rounds going back to Tyler Stephenson in 2015. Tanner was right up there with Kevin Parada and Daniel Susac at the top of a deep college catching class heading into the spring, and even though a disappointing season (.285/.387/.425, 7 HR, 45/32 K/BB in 55 games) dropped him out of the first round, there is still a lot to like. The southern Mississippi native is one of the best defensive catchers in the country, showing great agility back there that helps him block baseballs well, but he stands out most for his arm. It's a plus-plus cannon that not only nabs base stealers on the routine throws, but also works from multiple angles a lot like Patrick Mahomes. Check out this throw from Mississippi State's 2021 National Championship run. Usually, you're going to have to settle for a light hitter if you want defense like that, but Tanner can swing it. He takes very good at bats, with a simple right handed swing that produces high exit velocities and potentially above average power. However, his bat to ball skills are a bit behind his pitch recognition and he doesn't have great feel for the barrel just yet, which led to an overall lack of impact in 2022, but because he understands the strike zone well he should recover quickly with some pro coaching. Overall, he probably projects for 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages and great defense at best, a starter's profile if he gets back to his 2021 form.

CBB-73: OF Justin Boyd, Oregon State. My rank: #210.
Slot value: $901,300. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($53,800 below slot value).
The Reds saved a little more money on Justin Boyd, a pick somewhat reminiscent of Justice Thompson a year ago. Boyd did not play in the shortened 2020 season then showed well in a part time role in 2021 before breaking out in 2022, slashing .373/.490/.577 with nine home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 58/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. An on-base machine, he is one of the more patient hitters in this class and draws a ton of walks. Those deep counts do lead to some strikeout concerns, as he has just average bat to ball skills, but it's nothing egregious. He's mostly a gap to gap hitter, drilling balls to all fields and letting his plus speed do the work, and while he can turn on one for a home run here and there, I don't expect more than 10-15 home runs per season here at peak. The Denver-area product can play all three outfield positions well with his speed and a good arm, to me giving this a very solid fourth outfield profile with a chance for more if he can tap some power while keeping his strikeouts down.

3-94: LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State. My rank: #64.
Slot value: $649,900. Signing bonus: $522,500 ($127,400 below slot value).
I really like this pick for the Reds, and I think it could turn out to provide the best value of their whole draft. Bryce Hubbart threw well as a sophomore at Florida State in 2021 but broke out in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he posted a 0.87 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings. Those Cape numbers become even more impressive when you find out that all three earned runs that Hubbart allowed came one one swing, a three run Braylen Wimmer (Phillies, 18th round) home run in the third inning of his very first start – from there, he closed out the season with 28.2 consecutive shutout innings (aside from one unearned run). His 2022 was a bit more up and down, beginning with dominant outings against James Madison, Samford, and California and ultimately ending up with a 3.32 ERA and a 96/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings. Hubbart really interests me as a pitcher. His fastball velocity fluctuates, getting as high as the mid 90's on the Cape but also dipping into the upper 80's at times with Florida State, typically settling in the 90-92 range. The pitch plays like an invisiball, though, with sneaky riding action that misses bats and confounds hitters. That means even when he's 89-91, he can get consistent outs against advanced hitters, and when he's more 92-94, he dominates the elite like we saw on the Cape. He throws both a curveball and a newer slider, both of which flashed plus on the Cape, but they're both inconsistent and he prefers to pitch off his fastball. Hubbart rounds out his arsenal with an average changeup. He has a very skinny 6'1" frame and an uptempo delivery, but to this point he has shown that he can hold up just fine in the rotation. In order to take the mound every fifth day in the big leagues, he'll have to get more consistent with both his velocity and his offspeed stuff, and while his command has steadily improved, it's still fringe-average and will need some fine tuning in pro ball. The Orlando-area native really understands the analytical side of pitching and will take well to the Reds' player development program, and with a June birthday, he's on the younger side for a college junior. I think the ceiling is huge here if the Reds can get him back to where he was on the Cape, when he looked like an easy first round pick.

4-123: RHP Kenya Huggins, Chipola JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $488,300. Signing bonus: $407,500 ($80,800 below slot value).
The Reds picked up a power arm in the fourth round, getting Cam Collier's Chipola teammate Kenya Huggins. Huggins earned some draft interest a year ago out of high school in New Orleans, but went the JuCo route and showed well as a freshman in Marianna, posting a 2.96 ERA and a 97/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to around 96, but the pitch can play a bit straight and stands out more for its velocity than its movement. His best pitch is a mid to upper 80's power slider with late bite ,getting ugly swings and misses especially when he locates it down and away to right handed hitters. There's also a changeup here, and while it needs more refinement, he gets some fade on it and he's just 19. The 6'3" righty is big and physical and will only get stronger, though he carries some relief risk because he doesn't always stay on line in his delivery and has fringy command for now. Huggins will want to iron that out in pro ball while also refining his changeup if he wants to start, and if he can find a way to increase the life on his fastball, he could be a very good one. Otherwise, the fastball/slider combination should play out of the bullpen.

5-153: C Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech. My rank: #79.
Slot value: $364,600. Signing bonus: $362,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
Like I said, the Reds love college catchers who perform in power conferences, so Cade Hunter will join Logan Tanner, Matheu Nelson (Florida State), and Chris Okey (Clemson) as early round picks in the system. Hunter played just 29 games combined in 2020 and 2021 and had just 17 career hits coming into the season, but he was one of the country's better breakout bats in 2022 with a .330/.440/.637 slash line, 17 home runs, and a 59/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games for the surprising Hokies. While Tanner is probably glove-first at this point, Hunter is definitely bat-first, with massive raw power from the left side that produces huge exit velocities. He gets great separation in his swing, throwing the hips while leaving his hands back and creating a rubber band effect to consistently drive the ball with force. The hit tool is a bit behind at this point, as he struggles with breaking stuff to a somewhat concerning level, but he does hammer fastballs at any velocity. He also looked just a little bit lost later on in the season and struck out four times in Virginia Tech's season-ending loss to Oklahoma in the Blacksburg Super Regional (though to be fair, that was a major step in Cade Horton's coming out party, which you'll read about in the Cubs review). Behind the plate, the Philadelphia-area native is extremely athletic and can pop out of the crouch and run with the best of backstops, but his glovework and arm strength are more average and will need some refinement in pro ball. The potential onset of robo umps does help that profile a bit. Overall, I see a potential everyday catcher that can hammer 25+ home runs a year, but he will have to figure something out against quality breaking balls in order to reach that ceiling.

6-183: RHP Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #103.
Slot value: $279,700. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($77,200 below slot value).
If you like Joe Boyle, who is looking unhittable at High A Dayton right now, then you're going to love Zach Maxwell. Maxwell is a huge, 6'6", 275 pound beast of a man, and he's slowly pulling it together on the mound. After walking 23.9% of his opponents as a freshman in 2020 and 25.6% in 2021, he cut that walk rate to 17.3% in 2022 and that helped him post a 5.26 ERA and an 84/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings this year in a swingman role. The Atlanta-area product sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, touching triple digits with serious life. The pitch has extreme vertical axis and rides a ton, making it jump on hitters even quicker than the already impressive radar gun readings would tell you. His slider is downright ghoulish, with massive spin rates and devastating late bite that makes it one of the best breaking balls in the class. Those two pitches are kind of it for now, as Maxwell doesn't have much of a changeup and he doesn't really need it. Command is obviously the big question, as even though it improved in 2022, it's still well below average as the big guy doesn't always repeat his delivery well and struggles to harness his explosive stuff. He made a few starts this year and actually showed very well in a few of them, but unless he can take massive steps forward with his command and changeup, it's a pure relief profile and I think the Reds will be okay with that. With all of Joe Boyle's success so far, they have a pretty good blueprint for development.

7-213: SS Trey Faltine, Texas. My rank: #202.
Slot value: $219,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
Trey Faltine earned some top 100 draft interest as a two-way player in high school, but made it to campus at Texas and has been exclusively a position player. He had a breakout year in 2022, slashing .282/.393/.552 with 15 home runs and a 104/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, but those 104 strikeouts were second in college baseball only to Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean at 107. Faltine has an explosive swing from the right side that is capable of producing high exit velocities and above average raw power, but he may have gotten too power conscious in 2022 and that led to an ugly 35.6% strikeout rate. He's a bit passive at the plate and struggled in Big 12 play, so the hit tool is very much in question as he enters pro ball and he'll likely need to trade some power to make enough contact. The Houston-area product is a very good defender at shortstop, with slick actions, good range, and a plus arm that sat around 90 when he pitched in high school. That alone should buy the bat plenty of slack, and given his ability to pummel the baseball, there is some upside. But the swing and miss is very alarming.

11-333: RHP Ben Brutti, South Kingstown HS [RI]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $405,000 ($280,000 against bonus pool).
The Reds only went above slot value once after Cam Collier, but they just could not resist the live armed Ben Brutti. He had very limited track record entering 2022, but exploded onto the scene with a loud spring that sent scouts flocking to southern Rhode Island to see him pitch. Brutti's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96 with hard running and sinking action from a very low three quarters slot. His slider is equally devastating when it's on, showing sharp, late sweeping action in the opposite direction of his fastball, though it's not as consistent. He also throws a solid changeup that plays well off his fastball, but he hasn't needed it so far. The profile is a bit relievery, as Brutti throws with considerable effort, emphasized by sharp stabbing action in the back of his arm stroke and an explosive stride down the mound. The 6'3" righty has to get a little more consistent with his command in addition to his offspeed stuff if he wants to start long term, and he's also extremely old for a high school senior having turned 19 in May. Still, I see a potential impact reliever that could close games if it all breaks right. He had been committed to South Florida.

12-363: RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Mason Pelio is unfortunately an example of a pitcher who has developed in the wrong direction. He was a standout as part of Boston College's rotation as a freshman in 2019, when he posted a 3.62 ERA over thirteen starts, and heading into the 2021 draft cycle he was considered second to third round pick (though I was never that high on him). Unfortunately, his command disappeared that year and he finished with a 6.65 ERA over fourteen starts, so he returned to Chestnut Hill to give it one more go. That did not work out, and he lost innings throughout the year as he finished with a 9.16 ERA and a 21/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings. Pelio has been into the upper 90's at times, but typically sits in the low 90's with cutting action while flipping over a fringy slider and an above average changeup. He's a big guy at a listed 6'3", 230 pounds, but he's seen his command move backwards from average to fringy to well below average now, causing all of his stuff to play down. Even when he had close to average command, I wanted to see him sharpen up his slider before I fully bought in, which he hasn't done. The San Diego-area native represents a reclamation project for Cincinnati, but the building blocks are there. He has that big strong frame, a ton of arm strength, and an advanced changeup, and he just needs to be put back together. If a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered, I wouldn't close the book just yet on him becoming a back-end starter.

18-543: OF Mason Neville, Basic HS [NV]. My rank: #133.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Reds took a shot at Mason Neville in the 18th round but ultimately could not keep him away from an Arkansas commitment. Neville is a great athlete that shows off a variety of tools, albeit in need of some refinement that he'll get in Fayetteville. His loose left handed swing produces power to all fields when he connects, and at a projectable 6'3", he should grow into even more power in time. He makes good contact but it often comes at the expense of his power, as Neville will often throw the bat head at the ball in order to make contact if he doesn't recognize the pitch right away. The Las Vegas native has big upside at the plate if he can learn himself a bit more as a hitter, and I'll be interested to see how the Arkansas coaching staff goes about that. He's also a plus runner that can play center field, adding to his value.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

I really like this Reds' class, and I had a lot of fun writing about it. They had a ton of early picks due to losing Trevor Bauer as well as winning a CBA pick for small market teams, meaning they got to select three times in the first 35. All three of those picks were hitters, and in fact they took bats with five of their first six picks before pivoting towards arms in the later rounds. Performance was a big focus here and they were not scared of older players, and by the end of September, seven of their first nine picks will have turned 22 and Matheu Nelson will be approaching 23. I really liked a lot of these picks, with first rounder Matt McLain being my favorite even though it took a huge over slot bonus to get him. In the later rounds, I really liked taking a chance on super-athlete Justice Thompson in the sixth round.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-17: SS Matt McLain, UCLA. My rank: #9.
Matt McLain has had a very well-documented amateur career, and it began and ended with a first round selection. Originally thought of as more of a second rounder for the 2018 draft at Beckman High School in California, he rode a hot spring to a back-of-the-first round selection by the Diamondbacks, only to turn them down when they couldn't meet his bonus demands. His freshman season at UCLA was a forgettable one, as he hit just .203/.276/.355 over 61 games, but he's been trending back up ever since. After a hot .397/.422/.621 start to his 2020, he raked his way through summer ball and rode a strong second half to a .333/.434/.579 line, nine home runs, and an even 34/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games this spring. The stats aren't a mirage, either, as he really has done a lot to improve his game. He came into Westwood as an undersized, aggressive hitter who lacked much impact, but learned to barrel the ball better as a sophomore. Then this spring, he came out with a much more disciplined approach and stopped chasing as often as he had in the past, and at the same time started impacting the ball significantly more. That led to me flipping from being relatively low on him coming into the season (he ranked as low as #23 on my board in early April) to becoming a big proponent of his upside. The Southern California native now profiles for above average power despite his skinny 5'11" frame, with plenty of twitchy strength and athleticism that he has learned to engage in his quick right handed swing. I'm less worried about the swing and miss now, and I think he has a shot at .350+ on-base percentages to go with 15-25 home runs per season. A plus runner, he can stretch for extra bases with regularity, though he didn't steal that often at UCLA and only came away with 16 career stolen bases in 121 games. His athleticism helps him a lot at shortstop, but to this point he relies on that athleticism to get the job done and he doesn't quite have the quick, smooth actions of a guy like third rounder Jose Torres. The industry is split on whether he'll stick, especially considering his inconsistency from game to game, but the Reds likely think he will and believe they can help channel that athleticism into more consistent defense there. The bat would profile great at shortstop, but he will still hit plenty enough to profile as a regular at third base. McLain signed this time for $4.63 million, which was just over one million above slot value.

1C-30: OF Jay Allen, John Carroll Catholic HS [FL]. My rank: #60.
The industry has been relatively split on Jay Allen, but he had a lot of fans and it looks like the Reds were one of them. Allen is a three sport star who had a chance to play football at Florida and has also shown potential on the basketball court, but his future has clearly been in baseball and the Reds solidified that with this pick. He has a powerful 6'3" frame that produces above average raw power for now and could get to plus with some mechanical tweaks, and he's trending in the right direction with his bat anyways. He's honed his approach at the plate significantly and wasn't quite so much of a free swinger this spring as he had been in the past, and he did a better job of repeating his A swing rather than getting out in front or chasing. As you might expect from a Division I-caliber quarterback and talented basketball player, the Fort Pierce, Florida native is a supreme athlete, but he didn't quite show his top speed this spring, the only tool that regressed for him. Proponents such as the Reds believe that could have to do with the grind of switching between three sports, and that focusing on one sport and one set of skills will get him back to showing those plus wheels. Additionally, the fact that he has shown this much potential in baseball despite not completely focusing on it is impressive in its own right, and Cincinnati also thinks that he could be in for a huge breakout once he gets into their development system. Allen has plenty of ceiling, but there's a long way to go. He signed for $2.4 million, which was about $30,000 above slot value.

CBA-35: C Matheu Nelson, Florida State. My rank: #40.
We'll ignore the fact that this is about the worst way you can spell Matthew and just focus on the fact that Matheu Nelson is a fantastic player. He was eligible as a sophomore last year due to being a full year older than most of his high school graduating class (similar to Jack Leiter and Colson Montgomery), but didn't garner enough interest to be seriously considered in the shortened draft. That changed this year when he absolutely torched ACC pitching to the tune of 23 home runs, a .330/.436/.773 slash line, and a 58/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games, enough to bring home ACC Player of the Year honors. He doesn't have huge physical tools, but simply found the barrel time and time and time again this spring with a quick, simple right handed swing. At first, evaluators were waiting for pitchers to adjust to his breakout, but he just kept hitting and hitting and hitting to the point where he just forced his name up boards. There is some swing and miss in the Tampa-area native's game (24.5% this year), but it didn't hamper him in the slightest against strong ACC pitching this spring and I'm inclined to believe it won't be an issue at the next level either. Behind the plate, he plays with a ton of energy and should be at least average, so it's not just a bat-first profile where people think he may have to move off the position. He's a fun one to watch no doubt, and has the ceiling of an every day catcher who hits for power and gets on base, which there are not a lot of right now. Because he's already 22 and a half, there is a bit of a lower floor given the swing and miss, and if it does crop up in pro ball, he should be at least a platoon guy or a power hitting backup. Nelson signed right at slot value for $2.1 million.

2-53: LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia. My rank: #61.
Andrew Abbott, like Matheu Nelson, was undrafted last year, but he was very much on the radar after three strong seasons in the UVA bullpen. He transitioned to starting this year and unlike many other relievers-turned-starters, he had tremendous success, putting up a 2.87 ERA and a 162/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings, the 162 strikeouts leading all non-Vanderbilt arms by 19. Abbott's stuff held firm during the transition, and he shows a low 90's fastball, a plus hammer curveball, and an improved changeup that's now solidly an average pitch. After showing inconsistent command out of the bullpen, he filled up the strike zone as a starter and effectively worked all three pitches to his spots. He has a bit of a crossfire delivery that puts angle on his pitches, especially adding to his curveball's depth. Additionally, teams love his work ethic and demeanor on the mound, as the southern Virginia native loves to go to war with the opponent and relishes pressure and competition. Still, I do have some minor concerns over his ability to stick in the rotation. In my looks, his low 90's fastball dipped into the upper 80's later in his starts, and he's not the most physical at a skinny six feet tall. I will say though that the progress he made with that changeup and command do give him a better shot, though he did turn 22 in June. He signed for $1.3 million, which was about $70,000 below slot value.

3-89: SS Jose Torres, North Carolina State. My rank: #63.
This is another pick I really like. Jose Torres has long stood out for his defense at shortstop, then surprised evaluators by coming out and hitting .333/.369/.533 over the shortened season. His numbers held up over a full season this year, slashing .289/.343/.533 with ten home runs and a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He shows great bat to ball skills both in and out of the zone, which helps him keep his strikeouts down despite a very aggressive approach. There's some power in his rangy 6' frame that he is learning to tap, giving him the chance to be a multifaceted hitter. The defense remains his calling card, as the Dominican (by way of Baltimore) shows great range and a very strong arm with the ability to execute routine plays in addition to tough ones. He'll certainly stick at shortstop despite fringy speed, and if both hit enough to warrant a starting job, he could be the one to push first rounder Matt McLain off of shortstop. When you have a plus defender like that at a premium position, you'll take any offense you can get, and Torres provides that. If he can get a little more patient at the plate and add a little strength, he has the chance to pop 10-15 home runs or more per season while showing relatively high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. If he remains a hyper-aggressive hitter like he is now, the contact skills and defense should be enough to make him a useful utility infielder. Torres signed for $622,500, which was $45,400 below slot value.

4-119: 1B Ruben Ibarra, San Jose State. Unranked.
I haven't confirmed this, but Ruben Ibarra might have been the heaviest player drafted this year at a massive 6'5", 290 pounds. As you'd expect, he's an absolute slugger and hit .381/.503/.850 with 14 home runs and a 24/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games this spring. Ibarra's power doesn't come from elite bat speed or an ultra-optimized kinetic chain, rather, he simply wallops baseballs into oblivion with huge strength that doesn't require an overly complicated swing. The Watsonville, California native also shows strong plate discipline and draws a ton of walks without swinging and missing too much, something you don't always see from these brute force sluggers. As you might expect though, he will be limited to first base at best in pro ball. Ibarra likely profiles as a platoon or bench bat who can provide some thump, though hitters find playing time and he's a hitter. He signed for $172,500, which was $310,500 below slot value, and went 0-2 in his first game in the ACL. 

5-150: RHP Thomas Farr, South Carolina. My rank: #181.
Thomas Farr began his career at Northwest Florida State then transferred to South Carolina, where a strong but shortened junior season (1.72 ERA, 14/5 K/BB) put him on the map for the 2020 draft. He probably would have needed a few more rounds than the five there ended up being to feel like he had a good shot at being drafted, but he didn't need them this year and went in the fifth round after posting a 3.87 ERA and a 90/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.2 innings. Farr brings power stuff from the right side with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 97, and it gets on you quick. His power curve is his best secondary and flashes plus with hard bite, and he adds a more ordinary slider and changeup as well. Strong and durable, the 6' righty is generally around the strike zone but can be prone to walk some guys here and there, partially owing to a relatively high effort delivery with some late head whack. To me, the Atlanta-area native probably fits in the bullpen due to the lack of a third above average pitch, the fringy command, and the delivery, in addition to the fact that he turned 22 in April, but he could be very good there when he gets to focus on just the fastball and slider. If Cincinnati does go that round, I could see him working his way through the minors relatively quickly. Farr signed for $297,500, which was $59,600 below slot value.

6-180: OF Justice Thompson, North Carolina. My rank: #97.
Here is another pick I really like. Justice Thompson wasn't the most famous name on the Florida JUCO circuit when he was at Northwest Florida State (where he was teammates with Farr in 2019), then did not stand out at UNC's fall practices in 2020. However, he thrust himself into the national spotlight in his first ACC game on February 25th, ironically against Reds second round pick Andrew Abbott and the UVA Cavaliers. He doubled in his first at bat, then dropped down a bunt single in his second, stole second base, and came back around for his third at bat with a home run, all against Abbott. Thompson brought his glove, too, making a couple of great catches. He eventually cooled down and finished the season at .304/.386/.444 with seven home runs and a 67/25 strikeout to walk ratio, still strong numbers against a tough ACC schedule. The Tampa native stands out first for his supreme athleticism, as he's an easy plus runner that can (and did) wreak havoc on both sides of the ball. There's plenty of raw power in his 6'4" frame as well, though his simple, line drive-oriented swing doesn't always help him tap it. He hits the ball plenty hard, so some slight tweaks could help him tap it more consistently in pro ball. One drawback with Thompson is plate discipline, as he can get aggressive and has a long history of swinging through both hittable and unhittable pitches, though that didn't seem to bite him this year with his .304/.380/.449 ACC-only slash line nearly mirroring his .304/.386/.444 overall line. Working in his favor is age, as he only turned 21 three days before the draft and has plenty of time to figure out who he is as a ballplayer. There's plenty of ceiling here, especially by sixth round standards, if the Reds can unlock it. He signed for $250,000, which was $22,500 below slot value.

7-210: RHP Kevin Abel, Oregon State. My rank: #114.
Kevin Abel has been around a long time, and by now most know his story. He rose to stardom as a true freshman in 2018, when he put Oregon State on his shoulders and looked like the best pitcher on the planet carving his way through the NCAA Tournament, finishing it off with a complete game shutout of Arkansas to deliver the CWS trophy to Corvallis. His path to the Reds in the seventh round of 2021 since then, however, has been anything but straight. Abel lasted just three starts in 2019 before going down with Tommy John surgery, then the pandemic ended the 2020 season when he was nearing the end of his rehab. He still earned some buzz in the third to fifth round range for the 2020 draft, but no team was quite comfortable enough to meet his asking price. Healthy in 2021, he looked like a different pitcher. After showing a low 90's fastball, a big, loopy curveball, and a plus changeup with solid average command as a freshman, he saw that fastball dip into the upper 80's this year but ironically he tightened up the curveball and retained the strong changeup. The command was also a full grade worse from 2018, and he finished an up and down season with a 3.62 ERA and a 109/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 82 innings. It's a really weird profile in that teams don't often covet sub-90 fastballs with fringy command, especially when the man throwing them is already 22 and lacks projection, but of course Abel is a special case after having thrown a combined 16.1 innings over the previous two seasons. The 6'1" righty still missed a ton of bats by sequencing his pitches effectively in addition to the fact that his secondary stuff is, to put it simply, really good, in fact better than it was in 2018. The Reds will hope their pro development system can get Abel's command back to average or perhaps a tick better, and helping him build up enough strength to get that fastball on the right side of 90 will be important as well. If he can do both, then the Reds found a legitimate major league starter in the seventh round, though failure to do one will push him to the bullpen. Fortunately, the San Diego native has never been one to shy away from pressure and proved it by pitching at his best under the bright College World Series lights at 19 years old. He signed for $172,500, which was $40,800 below slot value, though he likely won't move as quickly as most 22 year olds.

11-330: RHP Shawn Guilliams, Central Florida JC. Unranked.
Shawn Guilliams trended up all spring long, but the Reds are hoping they're still buying low on a very talented arm. Growing up between Ocala and Orlando, he didn't receive a ton of interest in high school, but his stuff all ticked up at the College of Central Florida and he put together a 2.41 ERA and a 49/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings. Guilliams now sits comfortably in the low 90's and got up to 95-96 at times, adding a plus curveball with late bite as well as a newer slider and changeup. All of his stuff is extremely high spin, with the curveball popping the 3,000 RPM line and the fastball regularly sitting above 2,500. Previously showing a high effort delivery in high school, the 6'1" righty has cleaned up his delivery a bit and showed close to average command, which at 18 years old in JUCO ball is impressive. There's still some work to be done but all of the puzzle pieces are there, and had the Reds not swooped in first, he could have turned into a monster and a high draft pick at Florida, where he was committed. Guilliams, who only just turned 19 in June, instead signed for $272,500, of which $147,500 counts against the Reds' bonus pool.

2020 Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

1-12: OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS (PA)
2-48: RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M
CBB-65: C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS (FL)
3-84: RHP Bryce Bonnin, Texas Tech
4-113: OF Mac Wainwright, St. Edward HS (OH)
5-143: RHP Joe Boyle, Notre Dame

The Reds had six picks and could afford to take some risks, so they went shooting for upside here with three high school hitters and three college arms, two of which are more known for their stuff than their command. They didn't pull off anything too funny, mostly picking up guys for around slot value, and so far they've signed five out of six. I didn't love any individual pick, but I liked a lot of them and I think they picked up a good class overall. It was also a fairly local draft, with three of the six growing up within 250 miles of Cincinnati in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Louisville.
Full index of team reviews.

1-12: OF Austin Hendrick, West Allegheny HS, PA (my rank: 13)
The Pittsburgh area isn't the biggest hotbed of prep talent in the country, though every few years, it pops up with some impressive prospects – Neil Walker in 2009, Alex Kirilloff in 2016, and now Austin Hendrick in 2020. Hendrick has been a famous name on the prep circuit for a long time, up there with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Drew Romo, and Blaze Jordan as one of the high school hitters scouts had the longest history with. Though he's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed six feet tall, he possesses elite bat speed that produces tremendous raw power from the left side, turning on baseballs so quickly that if you blink, you miss it. His hands and bat are so quick that even his low effort warmup swings can drive the ball deep into the gaps pretty easily, and when he turns on one, he can obliterate it. The hit tool is a bit more uncertain. There are many who have questioned his consistency with it, worrying about his ability to wait back on and recognize offspeed pitches, and since he turned 19 in June, he's one of the older players in the prep class – a bit of a double whammy. Others, however, will argue that those concerns are really only popping up due to the intense microscope that comes with being considered in the top half of the first round, and give him at least an average hit tool if not slightly better. He has tapped his power consistently on the showcase circuit against quality arms and given that he's coming from the Northeast rather than somewhere like Florida or California, that's particularly impressive. The Reds clearly are buying into the power and believe that he will indeed make enough contact to tap it, and if he reaches his lofty ceiling, he could be a 30+ home run guy and send some baseballs into the Ohio River. The defense isn't as flashy, but he's a good athlete with a strong arm who can be above average in right field, which certainly helps his all-around profile. It cost $4 million to lure him away from a Mississippi State commitment, but the Reds still saved $370,000 under slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

2-48: RHP Christian Roa, Texas A&M (my rank: 83)
This is one pick I'm not sold on. I don't hate it or anything, as Roa is a very good pitcher, but I felt there were better options available at that point in the draft, though Roa does fit very well into this system. He reminds me a lot of Nationals first rounder Cade Cavalli, with slightly quieter stuff. A 6'4" righty, the Houston native has a low to mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, though at times he's been down closer to 90. Roa adds a very good set of secondary pitches that all flash above average to plus, including a top to bottom curveball, a more lateral slider, and an advanced changeup. He throws strikes with all four of his pitches from a clean delivery, giving him the look of a big league starter. However, he's been much more good than great during his career at Texas A&M, going 5-3 with a 4.26 ERA and a 93/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.2 innings over the last three seasons. Evaluators think the lack of performance stems from a two-fold lack of deception in his delivery and control (ability to throw strikes) that is ahead of his command (ability to hit spots). So while he doesn't often hurt himself with walks, he does hurt himself when he leaves pitches over the plate. The Reds think he's just a tweak or two away from putting it all together, with plenty of starter's traits all over the place, and he could end up a #2 or #3 starter if he reaches his full potential. He got $1.54 million to sign, which is full slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBB-65: C Jackson Miller, Mitchell HS, FL (my rank: 77)
Most evaluators saw Jackson Miller on the fringes of the top 100 prospects this year (#104 on MLB Pipeline, #99 on Baseball America), but personally I thought he could have been a steal at that point in the draft, as evidenced by my ranking him 77th. The Reds had the same line of thinking that I did and pounced early, grabbing him at #65, and they could have a really valuable player here. Usually I'm not a huge fan of high school catchers, which meant I had Drew Romo near the back of the top 50 and pushed Daniel Susac and Corey Collins outside the top 100, but there's something about Miller I really like. The Tampa-area product has a really loose operation at the plate and some moderate projection in his 6' frame, and together I think it could lead to above average power down the line. There is some nice leverage in that left handed swing, and while he doesn't have the longest summer track record, he makes pretty consistent contact that will help him tap that power as he grows into it. Behind the plate, he's an average defender for now, but he shows the same ease of operation and looks like he could grow into an above average big league defender. High school catchers have a very, very spotty track record, which is why I don't typically like them, but Miller has such as well-rounded, projectable game that I give him as good a shot as any to buck the trend. At 65, it's definitely risky grabbing that high school catcher without loud tools, but I think this could pay off for them. Just finding a big league catcher that can hit at all is honestly a win these days. Committed to Wake Forest, he's the Reds' last unsigned pick and they have a little more than $1.3 million left in their bonus pool, enough to pay him about $275,000 above slot. Pre-draft profile here.

3-84: RHP Bryce Bonnin, Texas Tech (my rank: 118)
Bryce Bonnin has been famous the longest in this Reds class, as he figured prominently into top five rounds conversations coming out of Barbers Hill High School just east of Houston in 2017. Instead, he followed through on a commitment to Arkansas, but the Razorbacks saw him as a reliever so he transferred to Texas Tech, where he would have the chance to start. Results were mixed there, and while he did strike out 27 to just six walks in 2020, he also had a 7.36 ERA, and he'll likely have to live with being a reliever long term. Drafting him well inside the top 100 picks though, the Reds might have hope he can hold out as a starter. He runs his fastball up to 97, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and gets great angle on it from a wide, crossfire delivery, making it tough to pick up. He also throws a plus slider that dives across the plate with great horizontal movement, and that pitch too can get into the upper 80's at times. His delivery is pretty herky jerky and features very long arm action, but the arm itself is really loose and streamlining him a bit could really help his well below average command. With a decent curveball and changeup in tow, Bonnin has what it takes to be a starter if you squint hard enough. However, he looks like a reliever and the as-is product could play way up in the bullpen, where he could just pitch off that fastball/slider combination for an inning or two at a time and not worry so much about spotting his pitches. Bonnin signed for $700,000, which was $21,900 below slot.

4-113: OF Mac Wainwright, St. Edward HS (unranked)
Wainwright grew up in the Cleveland area and attended St. Edward High School in Lakewood, but we'll still call him a semi-hometown guy from across the state. Columbus tends to be the mediator between any Cleveland-Cincinnati rivalry, and Wainwright held an Ohio State commitment in hand, so I think that tips the scale. Either way, Wainwright already has big fans in the Reds' scouting department and front office, and he has a chance to be a star in Cinncinati. He's a 6'1" right handed hitter with a loose, clean swing that allows you to project a lot of added power down the line. Additionally, he's a good runner with a good arm, with the potential to be decent in center field or above average in a corner spot. Injuries kept him away from most of the showcase events, so he isn't much of a known commodity and went unranked on Baseball America's top 500 prospects list, but the Reds have scouted him for a long time in their backyard and they're comfortable with the product. Not set to turn 18 until August, he's very young for a high school senior (more than a year younger than Hendrick), and the Reds will have to be patient with his development. He probably won't move through the minors as quickly as Hendrick or Miller, but he has the natural talent and athleticism to break out in a few seasons. Overall, it's more of a long term, sleeper name to watch. Wainwright signed at slot value for $512,400 rather than head to Ohio State.

5-143: RHP Joe Boyle, Notre Dame (my rank: 102)
If big stuff excites you, then this is the pick for you. The Reds started the draft all the way up the Ohio River in Pittsburgh, and they finished down the river with Louisville-area native Joe Boyle, who attended high school just an hour and a half down I-71 from Cincinnati in Goshen, Kentucky. The Notre Dame closer brings absolutely massive stuff, sitting in the upper 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 102. With a 6'7" frame and a crossfire delivery, he hides the ball well and gets great extension, creating extremely uncomfortable at bats and making his velocity play up even further. He has a slider as well, which ranges anywhere from average to plus-plus, as it flattens out at times but an also touch 90 miles an hour with sharp, bat missing bite. With two potentially plus-plus pitches, it's really easy to envision him as a closer, but he'll have to improve his command significantly. He's walked 48 batters in 36 career innings for the Fighting Irish, and it was a similar story in the Cape Cod League where he walked 14 in 22 innings. He struggles to repeat his arm slot and hasn't seen much improvement, if any at all, in his command in college. The Reds will have their work cut out for them on that front, but the good news is he's young for the class with an August birthday and he's also known to be very analytically inclined and a hard worker. His $500,000 signing bonus was $117,300 above slot.

Undrafted: OF Jacob Hurtubise, Army (unranked)
Another semi-hometown player, Hurtubise grew up in the Indianapolis suburb of Zionsville before heading east to West Point for school. He gradually hit for more and more impact throughout his Army career and topped out with a fantastic junior season in 2019, where he slashed .375/.541/.445 with 45 stolen bases and a 26/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. However, he pulled a hamstring in 2020 and we only got to see him for five games. He employs an extremely advanced approach at the plate that enables him to stay in control his own at bats even against advanced pitching, and from there he makes consistent line drive contact around the field. Hurtubise's plus speed enables him to turn leg out extra base hits and steal lots of bases (105 in his career) as well. He's been working to get bigger and stronger, though the overall projection is that of a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Undrafted: SS Gus Steiger, South Sakota State (unranked)
Steiger has been as steady as they come at South Dakota State, slashing .319/.367/.435 with seven home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 92/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games over his career. He's a relatively aggressive hitter who doesn't walk much, but he makes plenty of hard contact to keep his strikeouts reasonably low. He'll never be a power hitter but there's some reasonable pop in there as well that should enable him to hit for some impact in pro ball. Overall, it's an average offensive profile, bu the selling point is his above average glove that will enable him to stick at shortstop long term. It buys his bat some slack and helps the Minneapolis-area native project as a utility infielder down the road.

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds' organization lacks a "wow" top prospect (there are enough questions surrounding Hunter Greene's health and secondary stuff that we should hold off on the "future ace" projections for now), but they do have a nice group of solid could-be's who are only an adjustment or two from becoming legitimate impact players. That group includes pitchers Greene, Tony Santillan, Packy Naughton, and Nick Lodolo, who could join the rotation sooner rather than later, and position players Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, Michael Siani, Tyler Callihan, and Rece Hinds all have impact potential at the plate. I think that makes it a pretty average system overall, though steps forward from Greene, Siani, Hinds, and/or James Marinan could change that, and the Reds would also like to see upper minors guys like Jose Siri, TJ Friedl, and Victor Gutierrez figure it out and fulfill their potential.

Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Chattanooga Lookouts, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level AZL and DSL Reds

Catcher
- Tyler Stephenson (2020 Age: 23): Stephenson was the Reds' first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and like you'd expect for a high school catcher, he's moved slowly. Reaching AA in 2019, he slashed .285/.372/.410 with six home runs and a 60/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Chattanooga, nice numbers that were pretty consistent with what he did in 2017 and 2018. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame, though to this point he hasn't really tapped it and now after 376 pro games, he probably never will be the 25-30 home run bat he was projected as in high school. Still, with his strength and ability to keep the strikeouts low, he should profile for around 10-20 per season in the majors while posting solid on-base percentages, which combined with his strong defense means he could lock down a starting role. Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali are capable but certainly not enough to block Stephenson, and he should be up at some point in 2020 and potentially the starter not long after.
- Eric Yang (2020 Age: 22): Yang was the Reds' seventh round pick out of UC-Santa Barbara in 2019, and a successful pro debut has him primed to work his way up as a potential backup catcher. Assigned to rookie level Billings, he hit .290/.428/.420 with four home runs and a 44/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, showing that all of the strengths that the Reds drafted him for would at least play up in the low minors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has a very strong understanding of the strike zone and is more than capable of getting hits and posting high on-base percentages. Add in good defense, and he's a prototypical backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hendrik Clementina, Jay Schuyler, Jose Tello

Corner Infield
- Jonathan India (2020 Age: 23): The Reds took India with the fifth overall pick in 2018 on the heels of a huge breakout season for Florida, though his bat has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .259/.365/.402 with eleven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. Known for both power and on-base ability at Florida, the on-base ability played up, but the power, not so much. There were concerns about India's power in college, as it showed up in spades with metal bats but did not in a small sample with wood bats, and 2019 didn't assuage those concerns that his power was a product of the metal bats. He's a strong defender at third base, taking some pressure off the bat, but it's not clear where he fits in the Cincinnati infield behind Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Moustakas. Maybe he can handle shortstop, but that's a bit of a stretch. Either way, he'll want to rediscover that power stroke if he wants to live up to the expectations that come with being the fifth overall pick – if not, he projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is still good enough to start somewhere due to his good defense.
- Ibandel Isabel (2020 Age: 24-25): In 2019, the Reds deployed an alliterative 6'4" power hitter with strikeout concerns and Aristides Aquino turned out very well. They'll hope the same thing happens in 2020 with Ibandel Isabel, though Isabel's strikeout concerns may be even more pronounced. In 2019, he slashed .243/.307/.518 with 26 home runs and a 153/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Chattanooga, giving him three straight seasons with more than 25 home runs. Like India, he doesn't have a clear path to starting with Joey Votto firmly entrenched at his only position, and he definitely falls behind India on the depth chart if Votto gets hurt. Still, there's no denying Isabel's power, and he smokes left handed pitching enough (.330/.385/.588 in 2019) that he could profile well as a platoon or bench bat at the major league level as soon as 2020.
- Tyler Callihan (2020 Age: 19-20): The Reds took Callihan in the third round out of a Jacksonville high school in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal to keep him from attending Florida. His successful pro debut saw him slash .263/.298/.442 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 50/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games at rookie affiliates Greeneville and Billings. Though he's a stocky 6'1", he stands out more for his contact ability than for his power at this point. Callihan had some of the best feel for the barrel in the 2019 high school class, which should help him avoid some of the bust risk of most other high schoolers, and he could also develop some power if he starts driving the ball in the air more. He does need to get a little more patient, as he makes such easy contact that he doesn't draw a lot of walks. Defensively, it's not clear where he'll end up, as he has decent arm strength but limited range, pointing to a career either at second or third base.
- Rece Hinds (2020 Age: 19): Hinds went in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2019, a round before Callihan, though he went 0-8 at rookie level Greeneville before lingering quad problems kept him out of action for the rest of the season. He's got a ton of raw power from the right side, and he's shown no trouble getting to it even against higher velocities. However, he's struggled against quality breaking stuff, so he might take a bit longer to develop than Callihan. The Reds can look to the Cardinals' success with Nolan Gorman, who had a similar profile coming out of high school, though Hinds probably needs even more work with that hit tool than Gorman did. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but saw action exclusively at third base during his brief pro debut, and he'll need to work on his defensive game just to stay there and keep from ending up at first base. Given the presence of Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India, and possibly Callihan at third base, first base seems more likely.
- Keep an eye on: Alejo Lopez

Middle Infield
- Alfredo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 25-26): The Reds signed Rodriguez out of Cuba for $7 million in 2016 because of his excellent defense at shortstop. All he needs to do is hit a little bit, but as I wrote last year, over his first couple of pro seasons he "didn't hit a lick" and in 2018 he slashed just .210/.273/.312. However, that started to change in 2019, as he slashed .267/.314/.327 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, though he was much better at the lower level (.286/.325/.347 in 104 games) than the higher level (.169/.261/.221 in 23 games). That's not a stat line that screams future regular, as he still shows very little power except a little bit to the gaps, but at least he got on base at a decent clip against advanced pitching in AA. The calling card here is the glove, and if he can continue to tweak his approach and figure out how to get some singles, doubles, and walks at the major league level, he should be a nice utility infielder/defensive replacement in the near future.
- Jose Garcia (2020 Age: 22): The Reds plucked Garcia out of Cuba for $5 million in 2017 not long after they signed Rodriguez for similar money out of the same hometown of Havana. After slashing .245/.290/.344 in 2018, he took a step forward in 2019 by slashing .280/.343/.436 with eight home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at High A Daytona Beach. He makes easy, consistent contact from the right side, and his ability to barrel the ball up helped him knock 37 doubles in addition to his eight home runs. He's an aggressive hitter that tends to put the ball in play early in the count, and while that hasn't hurt him to this point, it does limit his walk totals. He's a sound defensive shortstop who will stick there, and if all goes right and he keeps hitting the way he did in 2019, he could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, which should be good enough to start.
- Ivan Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson looked overmatched as a freshman at Georgia, but he found his footing after transferring to Chipola Junior College for his sophomore season and hit his way to a fourth round selection in 2019. After being drafted, he hit .255/.327/.415 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 46/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at rookie level Greeneville. He's a switch hitter that hits for a lot of impact with his explosive swing, and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. He's not anything special defensively and probably fits best at second base, but with the upside in his bat, he may be able to start there as someone who could produce 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Yan Contreras, Jose Acosta

Outfield
- Jose Siri (2020 Age: 24-25): Siri had a big breakout year with Class A in 2017 (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530), though he hasn't been quite as flashy since reaching the upper minors. In 2019, he slashed .237/.300/.357 with 11 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 165/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, and a 3-3 performance in his final game brought his AAA batting average up from .162 to .186. Siri is the most tooled up player in the system, and while his strengths are very clear, so are his weaknesses. He has a lot of raw pop in his 6'2" frame and explosive swing, but that comes with poor plate discipline that has kept him from getting to it consistently in the upper minors and which has suppressed his on-base percentages. At the same time, he has exceptional speed that has allowed him to swipe 20 or more bases in four straight seasons, as well as a plus arm in the outfield, though his instincts are just decent enough that he's more of a "very good" defender than an elite one. Set to turn 25 in July, he's not the youngest prospect any more, but it still remains to be seen what he turns into at the big league level, all depending on how he manages the strike zone against big league pitching.
- Stuart Fairchild (2020 Age: 24): Fairchild was a second round pick out of Wake Forest in 2017, and he's put up solid if unspectacular numbers as he's risen through the minors. In 2019, he slashed .264/.352/.441 with 12 home runs and an 83/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona Beach and AA Chattanooga, and he actually hit better at the higher level (.275/.380/.444) than at the lower level (.258/.335/.440). 2019 was a nice step forward for a few reasons, one being that he cut his strikeout rate when he got to AA and another being that he started to tap into a little bit of power – there's not a ton in his skinny, 6' frame, but by finding the barrel more in 2019, he naturally ran into more power. At this point, he looks like a fringe-starter who could hit around ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and above average defense in the outfield, but he's trending in the right direction and he might not be too far off from reaching that projection.
- TJ Friedl (2020 Age: 24-25): Friedl went undrafted out of Nevada in 2016, but that was only because nobody, including himself, knew he was eligible, but once everyone figured it out, he signed for $735,000 (third round money) as a free agent. He hit really well in his first couple of pro seasons, but the bat has stalled so far in the upper minors and 2019 was a tough year. Bothered by ankle problems, he slashed just .235/.347/.385 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 50/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at AA Chattanooga before he was finally shut down for the season in July, and while that certainly dents his stock, I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He still showed a great understanding of the strike zone while keeping his strikeouts down and his walks up against advanced pitching, and while he didn't hit for a ton of impact in 2019, he's previously shown great feel for the barrel that gives him plenty of gap power if not too much in the way of home run power. He also has a lot of speed that plays well on the bases and in the outfield, giving him a good chance to end up as a valuable fourth outfielder if he can bounce back with a healthy 2020.
- Jameson Hannah (2020 Age: 22-23): The A's drafted Hannah in the second round out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, then shipped him to the Reds for Tanner Roark in 2019. He slashed .274/.339/.369 with two home runs and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between the two High A affiliates, though he did slump a bit at the end of the season. Hannah is a shorter guy at 5'9", but he has a quick swing and good feel for the barrel from the left side that should enable him to post high on-base percentages even if he lacks much in the way of power. He's also one of the faster runners in his new system, though he's still learning to deploy his speed effectively on the bases and in the outfield. He was young for a college draftee in 2018 and doesn't turn 23 until August, so while he has some work to do, he has a bit more time to figure it out as well. I don't think he'll hit enough to be a future leadoff man, but he has a high floor and should end up as a fourth outfielder.
- Andy Sugilio (2020 Age: 23): Sugilio has never been a big name, and it certainly wasn't after he slashed .221/.287/.288 as a 19 year old in the complex level Arizona League in 2016. However, he hit .345/.390/.472 in rookie ball in 2017 and .278/.308/.380 in Class A in 2018, then continued hitting in 2019 with a .294/.331/.360 slash line, three home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Daytona. He's moved very slowly through the minors, but he may finally be putting the pieces together with a quick, strong swing from the left side, natural power in his 6'2" frame, and enough speed to make him a weapon on the bases. He makes consistent hard contact and avoids strikeouts, but too often, he's been pounding the ball into the ground. If anybody could break out by joining the Fly Ball Revolution, it's Sugilio, and I'd be interested to see if he could match his career home run total (12 in 419 games) with a more fly ball-oriented approach in 2020.
- Michael Siani (2020 Age: 20-21): Siani was the Reds' fourth round pick out of a Philadelphia high school in 2018, though he signed for borderline first round money at $2 million then hit well in his pro debut (.288/.351/.386). In 2019, he slashed .253/.333/.339 with six home runs, 45 stolen bases, and a 109/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Dayton, his speed showing up nicely but his power, not so much. Siani was supposed to be a bit of a project on offense, so a .333 on-base percentage in full season ball actually isn't too shabby for a 19-20 year old, and he did keep his strikeout rate reasonably low. The next step for him will be adding some power, as he has some natural pop in his 6'1" frame but didn't quite tap it as much as he may have liked to in the colder Midwest League environment. He's known for his speed and defense, as he'll definitely stick in center field as one of the best defenders in the system, which of course buys the bat plenty of time. The speed certainly showed up, too, as he was one of just ten minor leaguers to steal 45 bases this year. After Siri, he likely has the highest ceiling of any outfielder in this system as a true center fielder who can post high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season, but he also has a lot of work to do to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Narciso Crook, Michael Beltre, Lorenzo Cedrola, Mariel Bautista, Quin Cotton, Wendell Marrero

Starting Pitching
- Tony Santillan (2020 Age: 23): The Reds drafted Santillan in the second round out of high school in Seguin, Texas in 2015, and he's risen slowly but steadily up the minor league ladder. After a dominant 2018 (3.08 ERA, 134/38 K/BB), he took a bit of a step back in 2019 by posting a 4.84 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 92/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AA Chattanooga, and he missed the last month of the season with triceps problems. He's got big league stuff, starting with a mid 90's fastball and also including a good slider and changeup, but after making big gains with his command in 2018, he regressed again in 2019. The command was shaky enough this year that he got hit much more than he should have given his stuff, and he'll have to get back to where he was last year if he wants to reach his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter. That's really it on Santillan – put 2019 behind him, hit his spots like he did in 2018, and go from there.
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2020 Age: 24): The Reds signed three players from Havana in 2016 and 2017 for a combined $16.75 million, and Gutierrez, the cheapest of the three at $4.75 million, beat both Alfredo Rodriguez ($7 million) and Jose Garcia ($5 million) to AAA. After a strong 2018 in AA (4.35 ERA, 145/38 K/BB), he did struggle a bit with that assignment to AAA, posting a 6.04 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 117/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 innings for Louisville, though he did finish strong with a 2.83 ERA and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his final five starts. He has a deep plunge in the back of his delivery, which helps him get good angle on all three of his pitches. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he adds a nice two-plane curveball and a diving changeup, all of which benefit from that aforementioned angle. His control is solid, but he fell victim to the home run frequently in 2019 as he wasn't able to avoid barrels inside the zone as often as he would have liked. Gutierrez has big league stuff, so the key will be getting more consistent with his curveball and hitting his spots better on the corners. If he can do that, he'll be a #3 or a #4 starter, but if he can't, he's probably a reliever.
- Packy Naughton (2020 Age: 24): I watched Naughton extensively in college, and he's a really interesting case. At Virginia Tech, he flashed good stuff but struggled to command it, keep his delivery intact, and stay out of his own head, and he finished with a 6.15 ERA over three seasons. The Reds still drafted him in the ninth round in 2017, and the results were immediate. His stuff hasn't really taken a step forward and plays closer to average now that he's out of the ACC and into pro ball, but he's learned to repeat his delivery much more consistently and his command is now a tick above average. The adjustments enabled him to put up excellent numbers in 2019, including a 3.32 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, but they all play up because of his funky delivery that hitters just have a hard time picking up. That's probably a #4 starter profile in the majors, but the Reds have to be extremely happy with his development to this point and he still has a fallback option as a funky left handed reliever, where he should be very effective.
- Hunter Greene (2020 Age: 20-21): Sometimes injuries can be more disappointing than anything else, and while it's not surprising that a teenager who threw 102 would go down with Tommy John surgery, I think we all felt a little gut punch when it was announced Greene had blown out his elbow and would have to miss the 2019 season. Fortunately, he's still really young and doesn't turn 21 until August, so the 2017 second overall pick still has plenty of time to develop. The Reds will therefore take it slow with him in 2020 as he builds back his strength before hopefully cutting him loose in 2021. It's very clear where all the hype lies with Greene. His fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's with ease, and I saw him hit 102 in person – let me tell you, if you think you've ever seen someone throw a ball fast, you haven't. 102 is just different, plain and simple. Now he still had a 4.48 ERA in 2018 because the rest of his game needs work. His slider looks like a plus pitch at times, but he doesn't always get the shape on it that he wants, and his changeup is more or less average. He's an exceptional athlete with an easy delivery, but his command plays closer to average and he still needs to hit his spots more consistently. Greene has a lot of work to do, and with that velocity and his work ethic, anything is possible, but I'd project him more as a mid-rotation starter than as an ace at this point.
- Mac Sceroler (2020 Age: 25): Sceroler was the Reds' fifth round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2017, then after an up and down first full season in 2018 (4.97 ERA, 81/30 K/BB), he broke out in 2019 to put himself on the map. This year, he had a 3.69 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 127/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A Daytona, a step forward in his command being the major difference. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and a changeup, a fringy group of pitches as a whole but one that plays up nicely now that he's been controlling the zone better. He turns 25 at the start of the season, so he's not the youngest prospect in the system, but he has back of the rotation potential.
- Nick Lodolo (2020 Age: 22): Drafted 41st overall by the Pirates in 2016, Lodolo instead went to TCU and after two good-not-great seasons, he put it together in his junior year and found himself drafted seventh overall by the Reds as the first pitcher taken off the board. He didn't pitch much after a long college season, but still posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, 30 strikeouts in 18.1 innings without walking a single batter (though he did hit one) at rookie level Billings and Class A Dayton. He's a 6'6" lefty that cleaned up his mechanics in 2019, and that enabled him to throw more strikes and get more out of his stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up due to the angle he gets on it, and he's moved away from an average curveball towards a sharper slider, which he's still figuring out. He also adds a good changeup, and together that's the upside of a #2 or #3 starter if he can sharpen that slider further. With his good command, he should move relatively quickly through the minors.
- Lyon Richardson (2020 Age: 20): The Reds have a couple of power high school arms down in their low minors, and while Jacob Heatherly and James Marinan have gotten off to slow starts, Richardson was solid in his first full season. The Reds drafted him in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2018, and after getting knocked around in his pro debut (7.14 ERA, 24/16 K/BB), he posted a 4.15 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 106/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings at Class A Dayton in 2019. His fastball is his best weapon, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and his slider has improved in pro ball to give him a second good pitch. He's still working on getting more consistent with his curve and his changeup, but he also made progress with his command in 2019, which is now closer to average. There's a lot more work to be done here, but he's a better pitcher than he was a year ago, and the Reds hope he'll maintain that trajectory in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Tejay Antone, Jared Solomon, Ryan Lillie, James Marinan, Graham Ashcraft, Jacob Heatherly

Relief Pitching
- Joel Kuhnel (2020 Age: 25): If we're talking about Kuhnel, we're talking about velocity. The Reds' eleventh round pick out of UT-Arlington in 2016 sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, both of which can creep above 90. Additionally, the 6'5" righty can command everything very well, which is not common for pitchers who throw that hard. In 2019, he had a 2.18 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 50/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, then put up a 4.66 ERA and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 9.2 big league innings. As it stands, Kuhnel is probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning type, but just a little bit of refinement to either of his secondary pitches, which stand out more for their velocity than for their movement, could get him there.
- Jose De Leon (2020 Age: 27-28): The Dodgers drafted De Leon in the 24th round out of Southern University way back in 2013, but he quickly established himself as a big time arm and reached the majors in 2016. However, he's battled numerous injuries and has been traded twice since then, first to the Rays for Logan Forsythe in 2017 then, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, to the Reds for cash or a player to be named later in 2019. This past year in the Rays organization, he had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between High A and AAA, and over three years in the majors, he has a 6.08 ERA and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. He's still a starter at this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen given the competition at the top of the Reds' system as well as his long history of arm troubles. His velocity has fluctuated but he can sit in the low to mid 90's at best, and he adds a slider and a true weapon of a changeup. His command has been understandably inconsistent, but a move to the bullpen could enable him to focus on his fastball/changeup combination and hopefully take some of the strain off his arm. It would also enable him to contribute immediately in 2020.
- Ryan Hendrix (2020 Age: 25): The Reds picked Hendrix in the fifth round of the 2016 draft out of Texas A&M, and he's pitched really well with a 2.55 ERA so far in the minors. In 2019, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings between AA Chattanooga and complex level rehab work, though he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. Fortunately, he made a healthy return in July, and he was back to throwing mid 90's fastballs and power curveballs that could carve through minor league bats. That breaking ball is sharper than Kuhnel's, but he doesn't have the same kind of command, as his has been much spottier. Health is obviously the first big thing, but if he can prove that, he'll also need to throw more consistent strikes if he wants to be more than a middle reliever. He does have the stuff to profile in the late innings.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Byrne, Dauri Moreta, Diomar Lopez, Randy Wynne, Matt Pidich