2021 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

The Yankees have recently shifted their drafting philosophy from toolsy athletes to players with strong work ethics and high baseball IQ's, and judging by the success of guys like Anthony Volpe, Ken Waldichuk, and Josh Smith (traded to the Rangers at the deadline), among others, it seems to be working. The Bombers continued that philosophy in 2021, and they're hoping to get another strong draft class out of it that outperforms expectations. They only made one big over slot signing in third rounder Brock Selvidge, instead spreading slight under slots (for the most part) to their other day one and two picks. Still, they came away with a strong class and I think I'm most interested in first rounder Trey Sweeney as my favorite pick, especially considering they got him below slot.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-20: SS Trey Sweeney, Eastern Illinois. My rank: #16.
Trey Sweeney was a late riser in 2021, just mashing his way into the first round against a weaker schedule. He ranked back to back with #5 overall pick Colton Cowser in my rankings, because honestly I saw a lot of similarities in their games and you could make a very strong argument that Sweeney is actually the better player. He burst onto the scene this year with a ridiculous .382/.522/.712 slash line, 14 home runs, and an exceptional 24/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games against a weaker schedule in a hitter-friendly conference, but those numbers are not a mirage. Sweeney picked up two hits against the man drafted immediately behind him, Cubs first rounder Jordan Wicks, and finished that series against a strong Kansas State pitching staff 5-13 with a home run and just one strikeout. The Louisville native simply shows exceptional plate discipline everywhere he goes, to the point where the Yankees are comfortable that it will translate to the much better pitching he'll face in pro ball. There's above average raw power in there as well, as he's posted high exit velocities on his plethora of line drives and home runs this year. It's a bit of a loud setup with some bat waggle, a big leg kick, and a slight hitch in his left handed swing, but still he struck out in just 10.6% of his plate appearances this year and swing and miss should not be an issue. Opinions are split on his defense, with proponents seeing his strong arm and just enough glove to stick at shortstop and detractors seeing a lack of speed better fit for third base. Given the presence of Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza in this system, plus the fact that the Yankees are rumored to be interested in a long term deal for Corey Seager or Trevor Story this offseason, might push him to third anyways. Regardless, I really like the upside here and Sweeney has a chance to produce 20+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages in New York. He signed for $3 million (about $240,000 below slot) and has homered and walked once each in four plate appearances in the FCL.

2-55: RHP Brendan Beck, Stanford. #91.
Brendan Beck was another late riser this spring, and honestly I wish I pushed him up my board a little further before the draft came around. The younger brother of Giants prospect Tristan Beck, Brendan was eligible last year but was thought of more as a sixth to tenth round arm and went unselected in the shortened draft, then raised his stock this spring with a 3.15 ERA and a 143/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.2 innings. Perhaps his signature moment came in Stanford's super regional opener on June 11th, when the temperature hit 106 degrees in Lubbock (something the Bay Area kids are likely not used to at all) and he decided to choose the black jerseys because "it was going to be Texas Tech's funeral." Indeed it was, as Beck struck out thirteen Red Raiders and the Cardinal won the game 15-3. I really respect that move not only because it sounds badass, but because it speaks to a deeper level of competitiveness. It is not easy for anybody to travel out to the West Texas flatlands, which are about as different from Palo Alto as it can possibly get, then play the #8 national seed on their home turf in sweltering heat. Rather than try to make the best of it by wearing white, which would have been a perfectly respectable choice, I love that he leaned into the challenge and basically said "screw it, let's go to war and just wear black." Anyways, onto Beck's stuff, which ticked up late in the season. The southern California native now sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has been touching 95-96, adding an above average curveball and a distinct, average slider. The changeup is currently his fourth pitch, but with his aptitude for pitching, he should be able to deploy it as a solid option in the big leagues. Beck goes right after hitters and pounds the strike zone, showing above average command and pitch execution that makes everything play up. The 6'2" righty has also proven extremely durable, throwing nearly 300 innings in his Stanford career (with a 3.11 ERA no less) and getting better and better throughout. While there's likely not a #1 or #2 ceiling here, he strikes me as a high probability big leaguer who will almost certainly earn MLB innings in some capacity, something that is hard to say for most players picked outside the top fifty picks. The ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 starter, and I think he'll move quickly once turned loose in the minors (though that could come relatively slowly as he shouldered a heavy load in Palo Alto this year). He signed for $1.05 million, which was about $260,000 below slot value, despite being set to turn 23 after the season.

3-92: LHP Brock Selvidge, Hamilton HS [AZ]. My rank: #156.
This was the big over slot pick, so while Trey Sweeney had the biggest bonus in the first round, there will be a lot of pressure to get this one right. Brock Selvidge was one of the best arms in the West over the summer last year, showing a projectable frame and the potential for two plus pitches, but he struggled in the spring and tumbled down draft boards. He was likely bound for LSU until an exceptional showing at the MLB Draft Combine in June reversed his fortunes, and the Yankees gave him as much money as he might have expected had the draft been before that rough spring. Selvidge is a 6'3" lefty with plenty of projection in his athletic frame, and his fastball touches 95-96 with high spin rates when he's at his best. There's a slider that was above average last summer, fringy this spring, and back to above average at the combine, and additional refinement with pro coaching could make it a plus pitch. He throws a curveball and a changeup at times, with the changeup flashing average and the curve looking like a distant fourth pitch. His delivery has gone through many iterations; last summer, it looked like he was jerking his way through it at times even when his stuff was at its best, leading to fringy command. This spring, he was throwing with more effort overall, pushing his command down another half grade. Then at the combine, he showed a smoother delivery than even last summer, and he filled up the strike zone consistently. The Yankees will have their work cut out for them to bring the best version of Brock Selvidge, but they've had a lot of success developing prospects lately so they're pretty confident in their ability to do so. The Phoenix-area native signed away from that LSU commitment for $1.5 million, which was $862,400 above slot value.

4-122: 2B Cooper Bowman, Louisville. My rank: #234.
This is another safe-bet money saver. Cooper Bowman began his career at Iowa Western JC, one of the top JUCO's in the region, before transferring over to Louisville this year. While many Cardinals had down seasons, Bowman was one of their steadier players, slashing .293/.387/.455 with eight home runs, twenty stolen bases, and a 32/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. The Rapid City native is looking to become what I believe would be the only active major leaguer from South Dakota (Sean Doolittle was born in Rapid City as well but grew up in New Jersey), and he should be able to move towards that relatively quickly. He shows strong plate discipline and held a strong 14.3% strikeout rate against a tough schedule this year, with moderate gap power that will keep pitchers honest in pro ball. He's a plus runner that can make things happen on the bases, and his potential to produce relatively high on-base percentages should enable him to make the most of that speed. Bowman doesn't quite have the arm for shortstop but should be a solid second baseman, and overall it's a utility infielder outlook. He signed for $353,000, which was $116,000 below slot value, then got off to a hot start in the FCL with four hits (including a home run) in eight at bats.

5-153: 1B Tyler Hardman, Oklahoma. Unranked.
In the fifth round, the Yankees picked up arguably the best hitter in the Big 12 this year. After never hitting more than six home runs or batting above .306 in any of his previous three seasons at Oklahoma, Tyler Hardman busted out for a .397/.481/.661 slash line, twelve home runs, and a 59/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. The southern California native, who actually grew up in the same hometown (Corona) as second rounder Brendan Beck, shows big raw power from the right side that he gets to consistently in games, and in 2021 he also showed the ability to handle advanced Big 12 pitching consistently. It's a patient approach for the 6'3" slugger that leads to a slightly elevated strikeout rate (22.5% this year), but he draws his walks (13%), and he fits right in with the right handed power bats Yankees fans have come to know for better or for worse. Hardman is limited to first base defensively even as his defense has gotten better there, so all of his value will be tied to his bat. He's a bit older given that he turned 22 in January, but he has enough thump in his bat to potentially profile as a regular at first base or if not, a strong platoon option. Hardman signed for $200,000, which was $146,800 below slot value, and has two doubles in five at bats so far in the FCL.

6-183: RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn. My rank: #139.
Richard Fitts has been perhaps one of the most difficult players in this draft cycle to get a read on. A day two prospect coming into his junior season, he was electric in fall practice and showed three above average or better pitches while pounding the strike zone with all of them. Had the draft been over the winter, he may not have even been available when the Yankees picked in the first round. It turned out to be a nightmare spring, however, and he finished with a 5.88 ERA and a 41/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings, even losing his rotation spot some weeks as he battled a foot injury. He did seem to find his groove a bit in May, where he went six and eight innings while allowing just one hit apiece against LSU and Missouri in two of his final three starts, though that was sandwiched around a rough start against Texas A&M. When the Birmingham-area native is at his best, he attacks hitters with a low to mid 90's fastball, an above average downer slider, and an above average splitter, all while pounding the strike zone and controlling at bats. This spring, though, both of his offspeed pitches lost their bite, and hitters could sit on his fastball and crush it when he left them over the plate. The 6'3" righty has a durable frame and is relatively new to starting, so the Yankees likely think this was more of a hiccup than anything else and would love to get him into their development system. There's huge upside to be had here if things do work out, but you're also looking at a 21 and a half year old who really only has a few good starts on his resume spread out between fall practice and the end of his spring season. Fitts signed for $346,800 ($80,800 above slot value), marking the Yankees only other above slot pick on day two besides Brock Selvidge.

10-303: SS Benjamin Cowles, Maryland. Unranked.
I like to highlight hometown picks in these reviews, and tenth rounder Benjamin Cowles somewhat gives me a chance to do that. Cowles grew up in Newark, but not the one across the Hudson – he's an upstater from Newark, New York, which is a small town between Syracuse and Rochester. Cowles headed south to Maryland for school, where he's gotten better and better every year. After slashing .200/.317/.314 as a freshman, he improved to .241/.364/.463 as a sophomore then broke out in 2021, slashing .287/.409/.632 with 18 home runs and a 57/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. He draws his power from a quick, clean uppercut from the right side, using his 6'1" frame to put great loft on the ball and tap his average raw power very consistently in games. There's a bit of bat wrap and uppercuts often lead to some swing and miss, and he did strike out in 26% of his plate appearances this year. You're usually projecting infielders as utility guys at this point in the draft, but Cowles' ability to tap his power gives him the ceiling of an everyday guy. He signed for $140,000, which was $4,100 below slot value, and has singled, tripled, and walked in seven trips to the plate in the FCL.

11-333: RHP Jack Neely, Ohio State. Unranked.
With their first pick on day three, the Yankees took a flier on Jack Neely, a flame throwing right hander who has bounced around quite a bit. He began his career at Texas, but walked 14 batters in 9.2 innings and allowed eighteen runs. Transferring to Iowa Western JC (where he played with fourth rounder Cooper Bowman), he was dominant in a small sample, then held his own in a larger sample at Ohio State this year with a 6.10 ERA and a 62/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings. The massive 6'8" righty saw a velocity bump this spring and now sits comfortably in the mid 90's and even hit triple digits with his fastball. His offspeed stuff is fringy but the slider took a step forward this year, looking like at least an average pitch, while his curveball and changeup remain below average. His command has improved from non-playable to simply below average, which given his velocity and the step forward with his slider, you'll take. There is still a lot of work to be done and the San Antonio native still probably projects as a reliever, but the Yankees are buying the size and arm strength hoping for something more. Neely signed for $150,000, of which $25,000 counts against the bonus pool.

13-393: RHP Zach Messinger, Virginia. Unranked.
The Yankees biggest bonus of day three went to Virginia righty Zach Messinger, who couldn't quite crack the Cavalier rotation on a regular basis but showed well when he was on. He finished the season with a 4.89 ERA and a 64/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, including a ten strikeout relief performance against VCU on April 20th. The 6'6" righty has plenty of arm strength and can get into the mid 90's in relief, adding an above average slider as well as a fringier curve and changeup, not unlike Jack Neely. He shows close to average command and if he can refine either the curve or changeup a little bit more, he does have the build and delivery to start. The Yankees have been very good about finding diamonds in the rough lately and Messinger seems like he could be one. The Evansville, Indiana-area native signed for $225,000, of which $100,000 counts against the bonus pool.

15-453: RHP Danny Watson, Virginia Commonwealth. Unranked.
I want to get another semi-hometown pick in. Danny Watson may be at VCU, but he grew up in the upstate town of Nassau, New York (not to be confused with Nassau County) and attended Columbia High School across the river from Albany. This year in Richmond, he posted a 4.06 ERA and a 55/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 44.1 innings out of a swingman role. He brings a really unique look to hitters as a massive 6'7" righty with a very low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot. That creates an extremely tough look on his fastball, which has ticked up into the mid 90's in relief, and his slider looks like a weapon in pro ball as well. He hasn't always been consistent though and his fringe-average command will likely keep him in the bullpen going forward, but if developed right, he could be a late inning weapon. Mason McRae, who in my opinion is one of the best evaluators out there and got plenty of looks at him attending VCU, does have a stern warning not to develop him as a sinkerballer, which he believes would be "catastrophic." Watson signed for $125,000.

17-513: OF Grant Richardson, Indiana. Unranked.
Grant Richardson hit a respectable .264/.335/.491 as a freshman in 2019, then got off to a scorching start with a .424/.453/.797 line in a brief 14 game stint in 2020. He earned looks at the back of the shortened draft, but returned to Indiana and hit .320/.397/.517 with seven home runs and a 35/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games this year. Richardson may remind some of a left handed Matt Gorski, who was a second round pick of the Pirates in 2019 out of Indiana, standing out for his athleticism in addition to his performance. The Indianapolis-area native is a plus runner who can impact games on both sides of the ball, and he has a knack for finding the barrel that has held up over longer stints in Big Ten play. With a chance for average power and contact to go along with that plus run tool, I'm a bit surprised he lasted this long, though he is somewhat raw for a player who turned 22 on day three of the draft. Richardson does have to refine his plate discipline a little, as he's very aggressive and has a tendency to chase, though that aggressiveness did not hurt his production in college ball at all. It's a similar story in the outfield, where he has the wheels and arm to stick in center, but he needs to refine his reads and routes. This is a fourth outfielder profile on the surface but I think he has what it takes to play full time one day. He signed for $125,000 and has singled and walked in six trips to the plate in the FCL.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #11

The Nationals will pick eleventh overall in this year's draft, the highest they've picked since selecting Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011. Rendon was the fourth in an extremely successful run of first round picks, including Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th overall, 2009), and Bryce Harper (1st overall, 2010). Since Rendon, the Nationals have not had overwhelming success in the first round, with perhaps Erick Fedde (18th overall, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th overall, 2016) being the only ones to make any kind of impact on the big league club so far. Lucas Giolito (16th overall, 2012) has become a star, but with the White Sox.

Recent first round picks:
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)
2016: SS Carter Kieboom, Walton HS, GA (28th overall)

There's a clear trend with the Nationals, a more traditional organization that likes big college pitchers and isn't afraid of a little injury history. Cavalli, Denaburg, Fedde, Giolito, and Rendon all had significant injury history when the Nationals drafted then, and Romero was healthy but saw his stock drop due to serious off-field makeup concerns. To this point, Kieboom has been a moderate success, and the jury is still out on Romero, Rutledge, and Cavalli. Meanwhile, Denaburg has been limited to just 20.1 innings with a 7.52 ERA in complex ball, and while at 21 years old he still has a chance to reclaim his prospect status, that one may end up being a bust. Now, a lot will definitely change between February and July, but heading into the spring season, here are ten names for Nationals fans to track.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
This one fits the Nationals' drafting style to a tee. First, we can look at the relatively meaningless geographic parallels, as the Houston-area native follows Houston picks Rendon, Romero, and Rutledge, and would also give the Nationals a second consecutive Big 12 arm after Cavalli. More importantly, Ty Madden is a very traditional 6'3" college righty except for a bit of a funky arm action, something I'd suspect only further endears him to an organization not afraid of injuries. Madden sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 96-97 in games and topping out around 99 in bullpen sessions, putting fairly unique downward angle and run on the ball that makes it difficult to lift. He adds a relatively inconsistent slider that is usually at least average but can flash true plus, and his changeup has been a more stable offering for him that plays consistently above average and flashes plus as well. His command has come along nicely, walking just four of 97 batters in 2020 (a 4.1% rate, down from 13% in 2019), though the Nationals' brass will want to see him hold that command over a full season. If things break right for him and he stays healthy (or perhaps even if he doesn't), I'm sure the Nationals will take a very hard look at the potential #2 starter.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP.
Richard Fitts has a little bit more to prove than Madden, having pitched mostly out of the bullpen so far at Auburn, but he has a chance to don the Curly W as well. Another big, 6'3" righty, Fitts impressed evaluators at fall practice in 2020 and pushed his way from a second or third round projection to a legitimate first round contender. In the fall, he worked in a starting role where his fastball began consistently hitting the mid 90's, playing up due to the tough crossfire angle he puts on the ball. The Birmingham-area native adds a downer slider and an above average splitter, and he lands all three pitches for strikes consistently. He looked the part of a future mid-rotation starter in the fall, and if he can hold that profile in the spring, a traditional organization like the Nationals could pounce very early. Watch to see if his velocity and command hold.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.
Like Fitts, Steven Hajjar has a lot to prove in 2021, but he has the chance to establish himself as a prototypical college lefty ace. Currently on the fringes of the first round conversation, Hajjar has thrown just twenty innings in his college career due to a 2019 ACL tear and the 2020 shutdown. 6'5" left handed pitchers will grab the attention of scouts traditional and progressive alike, and that's why teams love his upside. His fastball sits in the low 90's when he's on, while his slider and changeup both flash plus as well. However, we're yet to see any kind of proven consistency, especially considering the Massachusetts native's stuff was down a bit in the fall, his fastball occasionally dipping into the upper 80's and his secondary pitches flattening out. Given that, the fact that he's very young for the class (won't turn 21 until August) really helps his case, and scouts believe that his youth only adds to his upside. If Hajjar comes out this spring holding more consistent fastball velocity and taking a step forward with his command, which is presently below average, he could fly off the board. From there, it would be easy to project plus stuff and an impact starter ceiling on him.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
Jaden Hill, like Hajjar, has barely been on the mound in NCAA play, but that's about where the similarities start and end. While Hajjar is from the Boston suburbs, Hill hails from Ashdown, a small Arkansas town near Texarkana. And while Hajjar might fit more in the early second round if the draft were today, Hill is already firmly in the top ten discussion. The big, 6'4" righty is a former high school quarterback armed with a fastball that has touched the upper 90's in short stints, and his secondary pitches are well ahead of Hajjar's as well. The slider flashes double plus at its best, rendering hitters completely helpless as it dives all the way across the plate, and his changeup has long been a weapon in its own right since his high school days. He recently added a cutter as well, giving him a four pitch arsenal that makes him one of the toughest at bats in college baseball. On top of it all, he's actually proven to be a solid strike thrower, something that usually isn't the case with that kind of elite stuff. Of course, the injury issues are the biggest concern here, as elbow soreness and collarbone surgery (stemming from a high school football injury) kept him off the mound for much of 2019 and the shutdown stopped him in 2020. For that reason, he has not been able to prove his stuff or command can hold over a full season, and it gives him a wide range of outcomes. If Hill comes out and stays healthy for a full season, with his stuff looking as sharp in June as it did in February, there is no chance he makes it to the Nationals at pick #11 – he could legitimately be gone in the first five picks in that case. If his stuff dips early in the season and doesn't come back, then the Nationals might pass on him. But if the stuff stays sharp and he deals with continued nagging injuries, he could perfectly fit the Nationals' draft strategy of targeting high upside starting pitchers with injury concerns. In fact, it really wouldn't be too dissimilar a pick to Cavalli last year.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
As far as traditional bats go, Matt McLain is right at the top of the list. A first round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2018, McLain didn't sign with the Diamondbacks and instead headed to UCLA, where he struggled to a .203/.276/.355 line as a freshman. However, his stock has since recovered and more, with a hot start to the 2020 season (.397/.422/.621) and an even hotter run through summer ball (.436/.536/.773). McLain is a bit undersized at 5'11", but has exceptional feel for the barrel that enables him to spray line drives around the field and could end up giving him 15-20 home run power in time. Though he makes very easy contact most of the time, he can expand the zone against breaking balls and that leads to some minor strikeout concerns. Unless he makes a dramatic shift in his aggressive approach, McLain will likely never draw a ton of walks, but he should hit for a high enough batting average to put up strong on-base percentages. A premium athlete, his plus speed helps him on both sides of the ball and should keep him at shortstop in the long run. Improved plate discipline in 2021 could have him off the board before the Nationals have a chance to make a selection, but his present profile fits right into the Nationals' drafting philosophy.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.
If the Nationals decide to go with a college bat, Alex Binelas makes just as much sense as Matt McLain. While he wasn't nearly as famous as McLain at Oak Creek High School in the Milwaukee suburbs, his massive freshman season (14 HR, .291/.383/.612) rocketed him into the national spotlight, but a hand injury in the second game of his sophomore season means that freshman season is all we have to go off of. Binelas brings a lightning quick left handed swing that produces plus raw and game power, sending balls over the fence or to the gaps with consistent triple digit exit velocities. Despite its explosiveness, that swing can get choppy at times, leading to some swing and miss (19.8% K rate as a freshman). It's not a major concern at this point considering he was a freshman in the ACC, but it's something he'll have to cut down on in his junior year, especially in conference play. If he does, he might already be off the board before the Nationals pick at #11, but positional questions could work in Washington's favor if they cause him to slip a little. A third baseman at Louisville, his cannon arm gives him a chance to stick over there, but he's a somewhat choppy defender and might be stretched in the shifting era. The upside in his bat is so great that teams in the top ten picks might be willing to risk a move to first base, but continued swing and miss questions could keep him around for the Nats.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
Another traditional bat for the Nationals to consider is Colton Cowser, who was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs (in addition to top 2019 picks JJ Goss and Matthew Thompson). Cowser might have been the fourth best prospect on that team when he graduated, but he had a massive freshman season (.361/.450/.602) and landed on the US Collegiate National Team. Despite an unspectacular sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), he remains one of the top bats in the college class with premium leadoff potential. Cowser is a true plus hitter, showing a combination of excellent knowledge of the strike zone with excellent bat to ball skills, which he proved with the US CNT. For now, his swing is geared more for line drives than fly balls, but evaluators see his athletic 6'3" frame and think that he could grow into average power, perhaps more if he starts trying to lift the ball. With plus speed and the ability to stick in center field, he may not need to do so in order to become an impact player at the big league level. If Cowser hits in 2021 like he did in 2019, he could fit right in with the Nationals at pick #11.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
We've hammered home the point that the Nationals are traditional and love pitching, and Andrew Painter fits that to a tee. The Fort Lauderdale native has an extremely projectable 6'6" frame with a full, well rounded arsenal that he can command. Painter's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 95-96 without much effort, but promising more as he fills out his frame. He spins a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, both of which are consistently at least average while flashing above average regularly. With an above average changeup as well, Painter can attack you in a variety of ways. His extremely easy delivery enables him to hit spots as well as anyone in the high school class, and it also raises his floor considerably. Many scouts have likened him to Mick Abel, the first high school pitcher taken in 2020, who lasted until the Phillies at pick #15. It would probably take Painter stepping forward with one of his breaking balls to get the Nationals to bite on him over a guy like Madden or McLain, but if he does, he has as good a chance to land in Washington as anywhere else. The one thing that might hold the Nationals back is Mason Denaburg, their most recent first round high school pitcher, who has struggled to stay healthy since going 27th overall in 2018. Painter won't come cheap, either, holding a commitment to Florida.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]
Right now, Painter is the top high school pitcher in the country, but a lot can change before July. Jackson Jobe was known as more of a hitter a year ago, but a loud summer rocketed him into the first round as a right handed pitcher. The 6'2" convert to pitching already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95-96 just like Painter, but his secondary pitches are ahead of his counterpart. His slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, coming in with immense spin rates and tight, late bite. His curveball and changeup both flash above average as well, and he's an athletic kid that fills up the strike zone. Given that he's still new to pitching, Jobe could continue to rise with a strong spring and more consistency, with the potential to become a legitimate big league starting pitcher. If he does, the Nationals could bite as early as pick #11, though one drawback is age, with the Oklahoma City native set to turn 19 in July. Committed to Ole Miss, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore, which could raise his asking price further.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]
We'll round it out with the most famous name in the prep class, shortstop Brady House. Scouts have been excitedly waiting for the Georgian to become draft eligible, as he brings a long track record of hitting against premium pitching. However, House's 2020 summer was just a bit more inconsistent than some scouts had hoped for, and a combination of that and prospect fatigue have allowed Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, and perhaps even James Wood to overtake him in the prep bat rankings. Still, House brings a lot to the table. He shows easy plus raw power from the right side, power which he tapped consistently in games going back to when he was an underclassman. At times in 2020, his swing got out of whack as he tried to show off his pop and it came at the expense of his hit tool. The pure hitting ability is there if House trusts himself, and if he proves his summer was just a little blip, he might be gone before the Nationals pick. House is also a solid athlete with a chance to stick at shortstop with some hard work, but most scouts see him sliding over to third base and focusing on his big bat. Additionally, with a June birthday, he's relatively young for the class. Hailing from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, House has a commitment to Tennessee in hand, so if he slips too far past the Nationals with an uneven senior season, he could pull a Dylan Crews and head to school.

A few other possibilities
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
RHP Mason Black, Lehigh
OF Jud Fabian, Florida
SS Khalil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]
OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.