2019 Draft Review: Tampa Bay Rays

First five rounds: Greg Jones (1-22), J.J. Goss (CBA-36), Seth Johnson (CBA-40), John Doxakis (2-61), Shane Sasaki (3-99), Graeme Stinson (4-128), Ben Brecht (5-158)
Also notable: Nathan Wiles (8-248), Cam Shepherd (20-608)

The Rays had four of the first 61 picks and used them to their advantage, hauling in a pitching-heavy class that saw them take six arms in a span of seven picks between their first competitive balance pick and the sixth round. After getting a potential leadoff man in Greg Jones, they grabbed a couple of high-upside arms in J.J. Goss and Seth Johnson before pivoting back to mostly safety arms like John Doxakis, Ben Brecht, Colby White, and Nathan Wiles. It's a really talented class and I think the Rays will get a lot of impact out of it with a potential leadoff man, two potential impact starters, and a lot of guys who could fill out the back of the rotation.

1-22: SS Greg Jones (UNC Wilmington, my rank: 38)
More of a third rounder early in the season, Jones pushed himself up boards with a strong sophomore season and looked like a second rounder for much of the spring, then made a mad rush at the end and landed here at the 22nd pick. After hitting a respectable .278/.412/.370 as a freshman in 2018, the Raleigh-area native got better and better throughout his draft-eligible sophomore season and finished with a .341/.491/.543 slash line, five home runs, 42 stolen bases, and a 44/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Though he's a sophomore, Jones turned 21 back in March, making him the age of a typical junior, but he also hit like much more than the typical junior so it all evens out. He's exceptionally fast, as evidenced by those 42 stolen bases this year as well as 20 in 37 Cape Cod League games (where he slashed a respectable .259/.374/.353). He's also a very patient hitter, as evidenced by his 18.9% walk rate this year (as well as 15% on the Cape), and that patience becomes even more valuable because more walks gives him more chances to deploy his speed on the bases. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, though he's a skinny 6'2" and could eventually grow into enough to keep pitchers honest, but his real calling card will be his ability to spray line drives from gap to gap and let his wheels do the rest. He has the potential to turn into a true leadoff hitter with high on-base percentages and game-changing speed. Defensively, he's just decent at shortstop and some evaluators believe he would be better off moving to center field, where his speed could make him very valuable. Jones signed at slot for $3.03 million and is 4-8 with a double and a stolen base over his first two games at short season Hudson Valley.

CBA-36: RHP J.J. Goss (Cypress Ranch HS [TX], my rank: 24)
I really like this pick, as J.J. Goss has the chance to be a true impact starter. The 6'3" righty from the Houston suburbs checks all the boxes as a high school pitcher, showing a low to mid 90's fastball, a very good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. He has room to fill out that 6'3" frame and add velocity, and his fluid delivery and whippy arm bode well for both adding velocity and continuing to improve his command. Even though nothing stands out as a true plus for him, he's very well rounded for a high school pitcher and could be a #2 starter. The Rays do extremely well with these kinds of pitchers, so I'd expect Goss to rise up prospect rankings throughout his time in the Tampa system. They managed to sign him at slot for just $2.05 million, which surprised me given his Texas A&M commitment and that pick #36 is a little lower than some projected him to go.

CBA-40: RHP Seth Johnson (Campbell, my rank: 30)
Johnson may be a college pitcher, but his profile is more similar to most high school pitchers given his risk, upside, lack of track record, and even age to a point. Johnson is a 6'1" righty who began his college career as an unheralded shortstop Louisburg College in Northern North Carolina, but some impressive bullpen sessions and a grand total of six innings on the mound led to Campbell, a Division I school off I-95 in Buies Creek, taking a chance on him as a pitcher. His statistics showed mixed results as he posted a 4.61 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and an 81/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66.1 innings against mediocre competition, but if you watched him pitch, you would know why he went from a nobody to a competitive balance draft pick. The Charlotte-area native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, none of which are consistent but all of which can look very good at their best. While nobody would mistake him for Greg Maddux, Johnson already throws his fair share of strikes, and his smooth, low-effort delivery bode well for improving that command. To top it all off, Johnson is very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until August, so he's not as old as most college projects, which typically fall farther in the draft. Johnson hasn't gotten results yet, but his ability to turn himself into a real pitcher that flashes premium stuff with athleticism and some command virtually overnight has the Rays betting that he'll continue on this rapid upward trajectory in pro ball. He's far from a sure thing, though, and while his ceiling puts him as a #2 or #3 starter, a lot can go wrong along the way. Johnson signed for $1.72 million, $140,000 below slot.

2-61: RHP John Doxakis (Texas A&M, my rank: 47)
The Rays went and grabbed another college pitcher in the second round, but Doxakis is very different from Johnson. He had a fantastic season statistically, posting a 2.06 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 115/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings against a tough schedule, including a 2.23 ERA and a 62/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 64.2 innings in SEC play, where he faced some of college baseball's best lineups. The Houston native is 6'4" but actually sits around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on his above average slider, good command, and deceptive delivery to keep hitters off balance. With that average stuff, it's hard to project him as anything more than a back-end starter in pro ball, but his feel for pitching as well as his projectability with a skinny 6'4" frame give the Rays hope that he can add some velocity and get past that. Doxakis also has a bit of a funky delivery that might push other pitchers with similar skill sets to the bullpen, but he has the feel for pitching and the makeup to avoid that, at least in most potential outcomes. He signed for $1.13 million, right at slot.

3-99: OF Shane Sasaki (Iolani HS [HI], unranked)
Sasaki is a raw high school outfielder from Honolulu, one with a good all around game but also plenty of risk. Sasaki is a skinny six footer but generates some power with a big swing from the right side, as the torque and loft he generates could give him some pull side home runs. However, he probably won't ever hit more than 15-20 home runs per season in a best case scenario, so contact will also have to be a part of his game. It's questionable right now, and the length of his swing doesn't help ease those questions. Defensively, he uses his speed to be an above average center fielder, so all the pressure won't be on his bat. Obviously, the Rays believe they can make the power play up while maintaining his contact ability, and they're hoping to have gotten a solid every day player with this pick. Slot value is $587,400, but he has not signed yet.

4-128: LHP Graeme Stinson (Duke, my rank: 74)
Very few players saw their draft stock nosedive quite like Stinson's did in 2019. After posting a 1.89 ERA and a 98/19 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore reliever in 2018, he struck out twelve over five shutout innings in his one Cape Cod League start and positioned himself as a potential top ten pick if he could prove he could hang as a starter. Long story short, he didn't. The Atlanta native lasted just five starts before a hamstring injury ended his season with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. Stinson is a 6'5" lefty who can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball when healthy while adding one of the best sliders in the draft class, one that could probably miss major league bats today. The Rays may give him another shot as a starter, but he'll have to get a few things done to stay there. He'll have to continue to develop his changeup and he'll have to prove his durability. Many scouts are worried that the hamstring injury was not an isolated incident, as he checks in at 250 pounds and doesn't have the strongest frame. Even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could prove lethal if he's healthy, and I think gambling on the upside was a great move by the Rays here. He signed for $440,400, which was actually $2,500 below slot.

5-158: LHP Ben Brecht (UC Santa Barbara, my rank: 123)
Despite being a tall college left handed pitcher like Stinson, Brecht actually shares very little with the man drafted a round before him. The 6'7" lefty from the Chicago suburbs had a fairly unremarkable season for UC Santa Barbara, posting a 4.10 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 101/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings. Despite his height, he's more about command and control as his fastball sits just a hair over 90 and his offspeeds do more to keep hitters off balance than to really miss bats. However, he uses his height to get good angle on his pitches, and when you combine that with his feel for pitching and command, he can really control the strike zone like a pro. The Rays are banking on that pitchability aspect and will hope that his stuff and velocity can take the small step forward they need to get him into the back end of a major league rotation. He signed for $297,500, which comes in $32,600 below slot.

8-248: RHP Nathan Wiles (Oklahoma, unranked)
In the eighth round, the Rays grabbed a generic right handed college pitcher out of Oklahoma in Nathan Wiles. This year, he posted a 4.40 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and an 83/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings for the Sooners, though nine earned runs in his last start inflated his ERA by almost a run. The Kansas City-area native sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a decent slider and a changeup, with his command sticking out more than anything else. He's durable at 6'4" and with his strong track record of throwing strikes, the Rays will hope to sharpen his stuff a little bit and get him into the back end of the rotation, though he has a bit more work to do than Brecht. He signed for $162,900, which was $2,500 below slot.

20-608: SS Cam Shepherd (Georgia, unranked)
I'm not sure if Shepherd is going to sign here after what was a disappointing junior season for Georgia. He came to Athens as a highly regarded recruit who ranked #118 on my 2016 draft list then slashed .307/.354/.452 as a true freshman, but his line dropped to .244/.357/.385 as a sophomore then this year he hit just .231/.333/.386 with eight home runs and a 51/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. That line was dragged down by an awful .185/.244/.315 line through SEC play, further putting into question whether the Atlanta native can hit higher level pitching. It's his hit tool that stands out for him offensively, and he draws plenty of walks to boost his on-base percentage, but with below average power, Shepherd has a lot to prove at the plate. Fortunately, he's a good defender and may be able to stick at shortstop, otherwise he'll make a very good second baseman.

2019 Draft Preview: College RHP's

Teams love advanced college pitchers and are quick to take them early, yet this group of right handers is thin at the top and none are threatening to go in the top five picks, with only three looking like locks for the first round. However, once you get past the thin first tier, there are quite a few names to choose from, and they come in about as many shapes and sizes as you could hope for.

Tier I: Jackson Rutledge, Alek Manoah, George Kirby
There's no debate that this is the first tier, as you would be hard pressed to find anyone listed here ranked below anyone listed in the next tier. Jackson Rutledge surpassed Carter Stewart as the top junior college arm available, and depending on who you ask, some (myself included) would say he's the best college right hander available period. Rutledge transferred from Arkansas to San Jacinto CC in Houston, and the results could not have possibly been any better for the 6'8" righty. The St. Louis native has bumped his fastball consistently into the mid 90's, topping out in the upper 90's with regularity and missing plenty of bats. It's not just the fastball, though, as he spins a curve and a slider to knock hitters off balance, both of which could be plus pitches. He needs to work on his changeup and command, as well as his overall consistency, but his upside is perhaps the highest among any pitcher in this draft. He should go in the top half of the first round. Alek Manoah has been downright incredible for West Virginia this year, posting a 1.85 ERA, an 0.88 WHIP, and a nasty 135/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings heading into the NCAA Tournament. Back in April, he had a three start stretch against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Kansas in which he tossed 26 shutout innings on just ten hits, no walks, and 41 strikeouts; that'll get it done. The big-bodied 6'6" Florida native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and his slider has improved into a true strikeout pitch while his changeup has become a usable third pitch and his command has improved as well. Still, Manoah needs to further refine his secondary pitches and command if he wants to be an ace or #2 guy, and while he has much less reliever risk than he did a few months ago, he's not the complete package quite yet as a starter. Like Rutledge, he'll go in the top half of the first round. Lastly, George Kirby is a hair behind Rutledge and Manoah, but he's a great pitcher in his own right, having finished his junior season with a 2.75 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 107/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings. He is actually the safest bet to remain a starter in this entire draft, combining a strong 6'3" frame with great command of a full arsenal. He throws in the low 90's but can reach back for more when he needs it, adding a good curveball and slider as well as a changeup. In today's game, where the three true outcomes (strikeouts, walks, home runs) are emphasized, Kirby is especially dominant, having struck out 107 while allowing just six walks and three home runs all season. He lacks the ceiling of Rutledge or Manoah but projects as a strong #3 starter with less risk than other arms, and he projects to go in the middle of the first round, perhaps in the 15-20 range just a few picks behind the other two.

Tier II: Seth Johnson, Matt Canterino, Isaiah Campbell, John Doxakis, Drey Jameson
There is a big drop off after Rutledge, Manoah, and Kirby, with the second tier all coming with their fair share of concerns and little probability that more than one will be a first rounder. Seth Johnson is the most likely of that crew to end up there, raising his stock astronomically in the last calendar year. At this time last year, he was a light hitting shortstop at Louisburg College in North Carolina, but the wicked fastball/slider combination he displayed in his transition to the mound gives him a high ceiling. He posted a 4.72 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings against relatively weak competition in the Big South, but it was his first time pitching and he showed a low to mid 90's fastball as well as a good slider and a usable curveball and changeup. His command isn't pinpoint but he was able to find the strike zone consistently, and he should continue to improve in that respect down the road. With no track record to speak of, he's a risky pick, but he won't turn 21 until September and the 6'1" righty has a high ceiling if he can continue on his current trajectory. Over at Rice, Matt Canterino put up a second straight strong season by posting a 2.90 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 112/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 93 innings heading into the tournament. He's 6'2" with long arms and a bit of a funky delivery, but he repeats it well and throws plenty of strikes. Stuff-wise, he sits in the low 90's and adds a pair of very good breaking balls, though in pro ball he'll need to work on his changeup. He currently has mid-rotation starter projection but could be a #2 if he continues to command everything well, though the effort in his delivery could push him to the bullpen. He figures to go in the comp round or early second round. Isaiah Campbell could have gone in the top five rounds last year, but he was young for the class and stayed an extra year at Arkansas. After posting a 4.26 ERA in 2018, he dropped it to 2.50 in 2019 heading into the tournament with a 0.96 WHIP and a 97/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings. He still throws in the low to mid 90's from a high release point with a good slider, but what was fringy command last year has been tightened up to average this year. He adds a curveball and an interesting splitter, both of which need work, and the development of those pitches will likely be the difference as to whether he ends up a #3 starter or a power reliever. He'll probably be drafted in the same range as Canterino. John Doxakis has had an exceptional SEC career, and he capped it off with a 1.84 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 106/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.2 innings for Texas A&M this year. Doxakis is 6'4" but only throws around 90 with his fastball, instead relying on a good slider and better command to keep hitters off balance. He's got a little bit of effort in his delivery and while it doesn't impact his ability to spot his pitches, it creates some questions as to whether he can stick in the rotation long term. Still, he's built like a starter and has strong makeup, so he could add some velocity and end up a solid #3 or #4 starter long-term. He won't be 21 until August and he figures to go in the same range as Canterino and Campbell, but I like the other two just a bit better. Lastly, Ball State's Drey Jameson is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft, having posted a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings against relatively weaker competition in the MAC. He's only six feet tall and skinny at that, but he sits in the mid 90's and holds that velocity consistently, adding a pair of very good breaking balls. Jameson's live arm could help teams dream on a Sixto Sanchez-type player (though Sanchez has better command and ironically is almost a year younger), though like Sanchez he faces durability concerns due to his slight frame. His ability to hold his fastball velocity does give him a strong shot to remain a starter, and he could go anywhere from the comp round to the end of the second round.

Tier III: Ryan Zeferjahn, Ryne Nelson, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Hess, Noah Song
Four of the five of these guys face serious reliever questions, and I find it unlikely that more than one of them aside from Song ends up a big league starter. Ryan Zeferjahn has perhaps the best shot after posting a 3.97 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 107/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.1 innings for Kansas, though he got blown up for nine runs in his last start against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament. Zeferjahn was a top three rounds prospect coming out of high school in Topeka and the scouting report is roughly the same now, as the 6'4" righty can sit in the mid 90's and add a very good slider, but his awkward mechanics impact his command and his consistency (he had tossed 7.1 shutout innings against the same Kansas State team a week earlier). Because of this, he probably only has a 50/50 shot at remaining in the rotation, though his fastball/slider combination could play up in the bullpen and be very effective. He should go in the second or third round. Ryne Nelson is more likely than not going to be a reliever, especially after a tough stretch late in the season. Nelson had a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings for Oregon, showing premium mid to upper 90's velocity and a good slider from an athletic 6'4" frame. However, his poor command and lack of a reliable third pitch cause those first two to play down in the rotation, but in the bullpen he has the potential to hit 100 MPH. He just needs to clean up his command, and he'll probably be a third round pick. Ryan Pepiot had an up and down season for Butler, posting a 3.92 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 126/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings. This showed a little bit of regression from his strong 2018 (2.62 ERA, 101/32 K/BB), and he gets by with a four pitch mix headlined by a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup. His two breaking balls, combined with that changeup, helped him carve up Big East hitters, but they're a little bit too soft to be strikeout pitches against pro hitters. He also tends to lose his command of the strike zone from time to time, so a move to the bullpen might help him with his consistency and enable him to focus on either his curve or his slider instead of both, though pro coaching could make him a #4 starter. He looks like a third rounder. Zack Hess was eligible as a sophomore at LSU last year and his scouting report has not changed much, but he has been as inconsistent as anybody this year with a 4.70 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 innings. Hess is 6'6" and can sit in the mid to upper 90's as a reliever, but he's been used mostly as a starter, where his fastball is more low to mid 90's. He also has a very good slider that can be a true out pitch out of the bullpen, but his mediocre command and lack of a reliable third pitch kept him from succeeding in the LSU rotation. There is still some talk of running him out as a starter in pro ball, but it seems like that experiment has played its course and he should become a full time reliever, where his fastball/slider combination could make him a strong set-up man and help him get to the big leagues quickly. He should be a third round pick. Lastly, Noah Song has one of the most unique profiles in college baseball. The 6'4" senior put up video game numbers at Navy this season (11-1, 1.44 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 161/31 K/BB in 94 IP), but he's required by law to serve two years in the Navy before he can pitch professionally. On one hand, it's hard to pass on a guy who throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a good slider as part of a full arsenal which he commands somewhat well, but on the other, he might not get to pitch professionally until after his 24th birthday. A team willing to be patient with him could get a fringe-first round arm somewhere later in the draft, so where he ends up is completely up in the air.

Others: Ryan Garcia, Ryan Jensen, Alec Marsh, Tyler Baum, Hunter Brown

*Carter Stewart has signed with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks and will not be draft-eligible. He would have fit into Tier II.