Showing posts with label Howie Kendrick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Howie Kendrick. Show all posts

Monday, November 4, 2019

Top Free Agent Infielders/Catchers of the 2019-2020 Offseason

Catchers

1. Yasmani Grandal (2020 Age: 31)
2019: 28 HR, .246/.380/.468, 5 SB, 121 wRC+, 5.2 fWAR in 153 games
We all know Grandal is good, but the Brewers got a complete bargain when they signed him for $18.25 million last offseason. He set career highs in virtually every category, totaling 5.2 fWAR that was enough to place him ninth in the National League and second among all catchers behind only J.T. Realmuto's 5.7. Grandal hits for power, gets on base due to a high walk rate (17.2% in 2019), and plays excellent defense behind the plate, giving a serious argument for being the second best catcher in baseball behind Realmuto at a position that's looking shallower and shallower. This offseason should go much better for him. For his career, the former Miami Hurricane has 141 home runs, a .241/.348/.446 slash line, and 32.6 fWAR over 879 games since 2012.

2. Robinson Chirinos (2020 Age: 35-36)
2019: 17 HR, .238/.347/.443, 1 SB, 113 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR in 114 games
It might be because he has spent most of his career as a back-up catcher with the medium market Texas Rangers, but Robinson Chirinos has flown under the radar as one of the game's more productive catchers over the last half decade. Despite topping out at 114 games in 2019, Chirinos has reached double digits in home runs in five of the past six seasons while drawing enough walks to keep his on-base percentage at at least .314 in each of the past five. Like Grandal, he set a lot of career highs in 2019, and he brings power, decent on-base ability, and solid defense at a shallow position. He might not be good enough to be a full time starter on a contending team, but he produced this year for the Astros and would make a very good back-up on a contender or a starter on a worse team. For his career, the Venezuela native has 85 home runs, a .234/.329/.439 slash line, and 6.1 fWAR over 576 games since 2011.

3. Travis d'Arnaud (2020 Age: 31)
2019: 16 HR, .251/.312/.433, 0 SB, 98 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 103 games
When healthy, Travis d'Arnaud is one of the better catchers in the game, inning for inning. He's got pop, gets to it regularly, and plays solid defense. However, he hasn't stayed on the field for any kind of regular basis, topping out at 112 games in 2017 and only topping 75 games three times in his seven year career. He played just four games in 2018 after undergoing Tommy John surgery then slashed just .087/.160/.087 in ten games with the Mets before being designated for assignment. He lasted all of five days with the Dodgers before being sold to the Rays, where he was finally healthy and caught his stride, slashing .263/.323/.459 with 16 home runs in 92 games. The thing is, that's d'Arnaud's true talent level, and if he can just stay healthy, he could be a 20+ home run guy annually. Health will be the big gamble for whichever team picks him up for 2020, but the upside is big. For his career, the Southern California native has 63 home runs, a .246/.307/.412 slash line, and 10.3 fWAR over 500 games since 2013.

Others: Jason Castro (13 HR, .232/.332/.435, 1.6 fWAR, age 32-33)
Yan Gomes (12 HR, .223/.316/.389, 0.8 fWAR, age 32-33)
Martin Maldonado (12 HR, .213/.293/.378, 0.8 fWAR, age 33)

First Basemen

1. Jose Abreu (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 33 HR, .284/.330/.503, 2 SB, 117 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR in 159 games
I know that RBI aren't an accurate way of tracking success, but it's at least correlated with success, and Jose Abreu is fourth in all of baseball with 611 since 2014, when he debuted, behind only Nolan Arenado (682), Edwin Encarnacion (636), and Nelson Cruz (630). He's hit at least 22 home runs and 32 doubles in each of his six major league seasons, his on-base percentage never falling below .325 and his slugging percentage staying at at least .468 in each season. His lower walk rates (5.2% in 2019, 6.3% career) eat into his offensive value a bit, but he's a classic #5 hitting run-producer who could fit into any lineup, contending or non-contending. However, he provides little to no value on defense, so you're buying the bat and the bat only. For his career, the Cuban has 179 home runs, a .293/.349/.513 slash line, and 17.9 fWAR 901 games since 2014.

2. Howie Kendrick (2020 Age: 36-37)
2019: 17 HR, .344/.395/.572, 2 SB, 146 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR in 121 games
With the Nationals' big run to the World Series win, you've probably heard all about Howie Kendrick. After all, the 36 year old slashed .344/.395/.572 this year with 17 home runs and a low 13.2% strikeout rate. If there's one thing he does, it's hit the ball hard. His 48.3% hard hit rate placed him 23rd in baseball, and as someone who watched him all season long, it felt like he made hard contact every time he came to the plate. In other words, that .344 batting average wasn't the product of luck, but of just crushing the ball around the park. Unfortunately, he's certainly slowing down with age, with both his glove and legs losing a bit of value, and even he admitted that his body is no longer able to take the beating of playing every day. In that case, he becomes one of the most valuable, if not the most valuable, bench bats on the market as someone who can start against lefties and get spot starts here and there while providing real, middle-of-the-order caliber offense. For his career, the Jacksonville-area native has 125 home runs, a .294/.337/.431 slash line, and 31.3 fWAR over 1596 games since 2006.

3. Eric Thames (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 25 HR, .247/.346/.505, 3 SB, 116 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR in 149 games
Thames slashed just .232/.273/.399 in 2012 before heading to South Korea for the 2013-2016 seasons, but since he returned to the U.S. in 2017, he's been a very productive hitter for the Brewers and should continue to be in 2020. This past year, he knocked 25 home runs and slashed .247/.346/.505 over 149 games, giving him a third straight season with above-league-average production. He's a much better hitter against right handed pitchers (.254/.348/.529) than against lefties (.200/.339/.340 in a small sample), so Thames profiles much better as a platoon bat than as an every day guy, and he could fill that role successfully even for a contending team. For his career, the Pepperdine product has 93 home runs, a .244/.327/.478 slash line, and 4.8 fWAR over 564 games since 2011.

Others: Mitch Moreland (19 HR, .252/.328/.507, 0.7 fWAR, age 34)
Justin Smoak (22 HR, .208/.342/.406, 0.2 fWAR, age 33)
Neil Walker (8 HR, .261/.344/.395, 0.4 fWAR, age 34)

Second Basemen

1. Brian Dozier (2020 Age: 32-33)
2019: 20 HR, .238/.340/.430, 3 SB, 99 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR in 135 games
The second base class is more balanced than those at catcher and first base, with four players of almost equal caliber all available. Of the four, I give the slight edge to Brian Dozier, but you could make strong arguments for any and the most important thing here will be their fit on the roster. He lost some playing time to Asdrubal Cabrera during the regular season and to Howie Kendrick in the postseason, but Dozier has power and a professional approach at the plate that enables him to produce a satisfactory amount of offense for a second baseman. At the same time, he's a solid defender at the position, making him an overall average all-around player. His upside separates him from the other players on this list, as he's only a few seasons removed from crushing 76 home runs between 2016 and 2017 in Minnesota. For his career, the former Southern Miss Golden Eagle has 192 home runs, a .245/.326/.442 slash line, and 24.0 fWAR over 1137 games since 2012.

2. Starlin Castro (2020 Age: 30)
2019: 22 HR, .270/.300/.436, 2 SB, 91 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR in 162 games
Though not a star, Castro has been one of the more consistently average infielders over the past half decade or so. This past year, he set a career high with 22 home runs while slashing .270/.300/.436 over all 162 games. He's played over 150 games in seven of the past nine seasons and he's posted an OPS of at least .729 in eight of the past ten, though he's also never cracked .800. Defensively, he's solid if unspectacular, and together, he brings a similar end product to Dozier. He doesn't have as much power or as strong of an approach at the plate, but he's been more consistent and is a couple years younger. For his career, the Dominican has 133 home runs, a .280/.319/.414 slash line, and 18.2 fWAR over 1470 games since 2010.

3. Jason Kipnis (2020 Age: 33)
2019: 17 HR, .245/.304/.410, 7 SB, 82 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR in 121 games
Jason Kipnis has played a massive role on the strong Cleveland Indians teams of the 2010's, but at this point, it doesn't look like he's the impact player he was half a decade ago. In 2013, 2015, and 2016 he was worth 5.1 fWAR, 4.5, and 4.7, respectively, but he's slumped in recent years and was down to .245/.304/.410 in 2019. Still, he has a strong track record, strong plate discipline, and enough pop to keep pitchers honest, and he's still a good defender. That should fit the bill as a starting second baseman on a lot of teams, though he'd fit better into a lineup that wasn't set to win 95-100 games. For his career, the Chicago native who spent time with both Kentucky and Arizona State has 123 home runs, a .261/.333/.417 slash line, 135 stolen bases, and 22.8 fWAR over 1121 games since 2011.

Others: Jonathan Schoop (23 HR, .256/.304/.473, 1.4 fWAR, age 28)
Scooter Gennett (2 HR, .226/.245/.323, -0.5 fWAR, age 29-30)
Eric Sogard (13 HR, .290/.353/.457, 8 SB, 2.6 fWAR, age 33-34)

Shortstops

1. Didi Gregorius (2020 Age: 30)
2019: 16 HR, .238/.276/.441, 2 SB, 84 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR in 82 games
So much has happened over such a spread out period of time for Didi that it's hard to believe he's still only 29. He started with Cincinnati in 2012, was traded to Arizona that year and then to New York in 2014 in a pair of three team deals that included Trevor Bauer, Shin-Soo Choo, and Robbie Ray, took over for Derek Jeter at shortstop in The Bronx, posted three straight 20 home run campaigns, went down with Tommy John surgery in 2018/2019, and returned to play a pivotal role in getting the Yankees within two wins of a World Series berth. While his 2019 campaign, even after recovering from the surgery in June, wasn't the prettiest (.238/.276/.441, 84 wRC+), he's still one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball and certainly the best one available on the free agent market. Guys like Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Xander Bogaerts, and now Fernando Tatis Jr. have made the impact-hitting shortstop a bit easier to find nowadays, but they still don't grow on trees and Gregorius provides what a lot of teams, even contending teams, don't have. He can hit for some power, get on base fairly well, and play good defense at the toughest non-catcher position. As recently as 2018, when he slashed .268/.335/.494 with 27 home runs, he was worth 4.7 fWAR. For his career, the Netherlands-native has 110 home runs, a .264/.313/.429 slash line, and 17.5 fWAR over 851 games since 2012.

2. Jose Iglesias (2020 Age: 30)
2019: 11 HR, .288/.318/.407, 6 SB, 84 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR in 146 games
The juiced balls helped Iglesias get over the hump and start hitting for power in 2019, and his .288/.318/.407 slash line meant his highest OPS (.724) since 2013. Iglesias is so good with the glove that if he can hit at all, he's valuable, and his wRC+ marks of 89 in 2018 and 84 in 2019 fulfill the "at all" requirement. On a contending team, he would fit better as a slick fielding utility man, but he could certainly start on a non-contending team such as the Reds, where he played 2019. For his career, the Cuban has 32 home runs, a .273/.315/.371 slash line, and 11.6 fWAR over 802 games since 2011.

3. Asdrubal Cabrera (2020 Age: 34)
2019: 18 HR, .260/.342/.441, 4 SB, 98 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR in 131 games
Is Asdrubal Cabrera really a true shortstop at this point? Probably not, but he's spent a lot of time at second, short, and third over the past few seasons, and with shortstop being so shallow in this year's class, I'm including him over here. He's been so consistently average for so many teams for such a long time that he has kind of flown under the radar, but he's topped 130 games while hitting at least 14 home runs and 25 doubles in each of the past nine seasons, and that's enabled him to be worth at least 1.3 fWAR in each of those seasons. Set to turn 34 in November, I'm not sure how much longer he can keep this up, but Cabrera provides a solid bat with a flexible glove to whichever team chooses to pick him up. He was actually already a free agent once this season, as the Rangers released him after he slashed .235/.318/.393 with 12 home runs in 93 games for them, but the Nationals picked him up as bench depth and he caught fire, slashing .323/.404/.565 with six home runs in 38 games, effectively stealing the starting second base job from Brian Dozier. That's not sustainable, but it certainly helps his free agent value. For his career, the Venezuelan has 180 home runs, a .268/.331/.425 slash line, and 27.5 fWAR in 1660 games since 2007.

Others: Adeiny Hechavarria (9 HR, .241/.299/.443, 0.7 fWAR, age 31)
Jordy Mercer (9 HR, .270/.310/.438, 0.6 fWAR, age 33-34)

Third Basemen

1. Anthony Rendon (2020 Age: 29-30)
2019: 34 HR, .319/.412/.598, 5 SB, 154 wRC+, 7.0 fWAR in 146 games
Over the past three years, Christian Yelich leads the National League in fWAR at 20.0, but Anthony Rendon is *right* behind him with 19.9. That mark leads all third basemen in either league, topping Alex Bregman (19.5), Jose Ramirez (17.9), and Nolan Arenado (17.4). He's grown tremendously as a ballplayer since slashing .270/.348/.450 with 20 home runs in 2016, jumping from 4.3 fWAR that year to 6.7 in 2017, 6.2 in 2018, and 7.0 in 2019. At this point, there are very few holes in his game, as he is the complete package at the plate with three straight seasons with at least 24 home runs, 41 doubles, and a .374 on-base percentage, and he topped out in all three with 34, 44, and .412 this year. Defensively, his exceptional reactions make him one of the best defenders in the league at the hot corner, and all together, he has a very strong argument against Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado as the best third baseman in baseball. That should net him nearly a decade on his contract and well north of $200 million, as he already turned down a seven year deal from the Nationals worth $210-215 million. For his career, the former Rice Owl has 136 home runs, a .290/.369/.490 slash line, and 32.7 fWAR over 916 games since 2013.

2. Josh Donaldson (2020 Age: 34)
2019: 37 HR, .259/.379/.521, 4 SB, 132 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR in 155 games
Donaldson slashed .246/.352/.449 with just eight home runs in 52 games during an injury-ravaged 2018 season, then took a one year, $23 million deal with the Braves as he bet on himself. As I, a big Josh Donaldson fan, figured, that turned out to be the right decision for both teams as Donaldson hit 37 home runs, drew 100 walks, and played great defense over at third base, looking almost like his old self. That should help him land a much larger deal this offseason as a middle of the order hitter with lots of defensive value, though teams will have to be cognizant that he turns 34 in December and has a bit of an injury history. Still, remaining healthy all year long in 2019 and playing in 155 games is a big help. For his career, the Auburn product has 219 home runs, a .273/.369/.509 slash line, and 41.4 fWAR over 1038 games since 2010.

3. Mike Moustakas (2020 Age: 31)
2019: 35 HR, .254/.329/.516, 3 SB, 113 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR over 143 games
Hopefully, the third time is the charm for Mike Moustakas. Two unlucky free agencies caused him to make much less than market value, but 101 home runs over the past three seasons as well as more leverage will help him fare better. Moustakas is a power hitter who also does a solid job of getting on base, and he proved some defensive versatility in 2019 by filling in at second base as well as playing his typical third base. He was young enough when he originally hit free agency after the 2017 season that he'll play most of the 2020 season at age 31, so he's still a solid, semi-long term piece who could hit near the middle of the lineup with some defensive value. For his career, the Los Angeles native has 182 home runs, a .252/.310/.441 slash line, and 16.1 fWAR over 1131 games since 2011.

Others: Todd Frazier (21 HR, .251/.329/.443, 1.9 fWAR, age 34)
Pablo Sandoval (14 HR, .268/.313/.507, 1.0 fWAR, age 33-34)
Jedd Gyorko (2 HR, .174/.248/.250, -0.7 fWAR, age 31)

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Hot Stove Preview: Free Agent Outfielders

Outfielders
This year's outfield class is fairly deep, led by J.D. Martinez, Lorenzo Cain, and Shohei Ohtani, with some solid secondary options like Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, and Carlos Gomez. After those front six, the quality of the players available goes down a bit, with mostly fourth outfielders up for grabs.

Bonus: Shohei Ohtani (Previous Team: Nippon-Ham Fighters. 2018 Age: 23-24)
2017 Japan Stats: 8 HR, 31 RBI, .332 AVG, .403 OBP, .540 SLG, 0 SB
I'm not ranking Ohtani because a) he's technically not a free agent yet and b) we don't even know if he'll sign as a pitcher, a hitter, or both. I'll talk about Ohtani the outfielder here, though he is more likely to join the MLB as a pitcher. Ohtani is a power bat who slashed .332/.403/.540 with eight home runs in 65 games in Japan this year, one who could be an above average hitter in the major leagues. However, he did strike out in 27.2% of his plate appearances and walked in 10.4%. That's not the worst walk rate in the world, but he'll need to get a handle on the strike zone before facing more advanced MLB pitching. He doesn't turn 24 until July, so there is absolutely potential for growth, and he'll come much cheaper than the other free agent outfielders (likely about $25 million between the posting fee and the signing bonus). For his career, he has 48 home runs and a .286/.358/.500 line over 403 games in the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Japan's major league. More on his pitching in the next update.

1. J.D. Martinez (Previous Team: Diamondbacks. 2018 Age: 30)
2017 Stats: 45 HR, 104 RBI, .303 AVG, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
On the surface, it looks like J.D. Martinez had a huge power breakout in 2017, but he's actually always possessed this kind of power. His wRC+'s from 2014 to 2016 were 154, 136, and 141, but it didn't show up as much in his raw numbers because Comerica Park suppresses home run power. His numbers with the Tigers in 2017 were in fact better (.305/.388/.630, enough for a 160 wRC+), but they weren't wholly out of line for his career norms. However, when he was traded to the Diamondbacks, who play in hitter-friendly Chase Field, his slash line shot up to .302/.366/.741 with a not-too-different 172 wRC+ (remember, wRC+ is park-adjusted). This isn't to say his 2017 wasn't a career year, but it doesn't change the way I think of Martinez as a hitter by too much. In fact, I already loved him as a hitter before, and this raw number breakout just confirms it. Unless he signs with a team that plays in one of the West Coast pitchers' parks, expect him to continue to post better numbers than he did in Detroit simply due to the shape of the park around him. Martinez is a first rate bat who can anchor a lineup. For his career, the 30 year old South Florida native has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.

2. Lorenzo Cain (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 32)
2017 Stats: 15 HR, 49 RBI, .300 AVG, 26 SB, 115 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Lorenzo Cain quietly had another big year in 2017, slashing .300/.363/.440 with 15 home runs and 26 stolen bases, leading all free agent outfielders with 4.1 fWAR. He possesses a rare combination of elite speed and high on-base ability, which has enabled him to be a prototypical leadoff hitter with above average center field defense. His 8.4% walk rate in 2017 was a career high, only helping his case. The only reason to be weary of Cain as a free agent, aside from cost, is that much of his value comes from his speed and that at 31, he may start to slow down soon. That hasn't happened yet, as according to Baseball Savant, his sprint speed actually went up in 2017, from 28.8 and 28.7 feet per second in 2015 and 2016, respectively, to 29.1 feet per second in 2017. For his career, outfielder out of the Florida panhandle has 57 home runs, a .290/.342/.421 slash line, 127 stolen bases, and 23.5 fWAR over 756 games.

3. Jay Bruce (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)
2017 Stats: 36 HR, 101 RBI, .254 AVG, 1 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
Jay Bruce is a power bat who doesn't provide much in the way of on-base percentage (.324 last year), but he clubs home runs with consistency and will be great in the middle of whatever lineup chooses him. This past season, he slashed .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs and a 118 wRC+, posting his best overall season since 2013. Since he debuted not long after his 21st birthday, it's easy to forget that he won't turn 31 until April, and he'll look to keep mashing wherever he signs on. For his career, the Beaumont, Texas native has 277 home runs, a .249/.319/.472 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 1416 games.

4. Carlos Gonzalez (Previous Team: Rockies. 2018 Age: 32)
2017 Stats: 14 HR, 57 RBI, .262 AVG, 3 SB, 84 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR
This year was a bit of a lost year for Carlos Gonzalez, as he missed some time with a shoulder injury and finished with a .262/.339/.423 slash line and 14 home runs in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. The aggregate numbers don't really tell the whole story, as he did surge in September (.377/.484/.766, 6 HR) after struggling for most of the year. He also had terrible home/road splits, slashing a mighty .323/.403/.520 with eight home runs at Coors but a futile .203/.274/.332 with six home runs on the road. Whichever team signs him will be banking on a bounce back, as he did slash .298/.350/.505 with 28 home runs a year ago, good for a 110 wRC+ when you adjust for the Coors Field effect. For his career, CarGo has 215 home runs, a .288/.346/.511 slash line, and 22.9 fWAR over 1200 games.

5. Carlos Gomez (Previous Team: Rangers. 2018 Age: 32)
2017 Stats: 17 HR, 51 RBI, .255 AVG, 13 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.3 fWAR
It's hard to tell what to make of Carlos Gomez. In 2014, he slashed .284/.356/.477 with 23 home runs and 34 stolen bases, racking up 5.7 fWAR. Then everything fell apart in 2015, as he slashed just .255/.314/.409 with 12 home runs and 17 stolen bases, dropping to 2.7 fWAR. He got off to an even worse start in 2016, slashing .210/.272/.322 with five home runs and 13 stolen bases in 85 games for the Astros before being traded to the Rangers, where he completely altered his approach to hitting. The results were immediate, as he finished out the year slashing .284/.362/.543 with eight home runs and five stolen bases in 33 games with the Rangers, and he was expected to carry his new approach into 2017. However, that only happened in part, as his .255/.340/.462 line with 17 home runs and 13 stolen bases was better than in years past, but not nearly what he was in those early years with the Brewers. Whoever signs Gomez is very much gambling on the soon-to-be 32 year old, which is why he may come at a bargain price. For his career, the Dominican who can do it all on his best days has 133 home runs, a .256/.315/.419 slash line, 252 stolen bases, and 28.5 fWAR over 1309 games.

6. Austin Jackson (Previous Team: Indians. 2018 Age: 31)
2017 Stats: 7 HR, 35 RBI, .318 AVG, 3 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR
Austin Jackson has been inconsistent throughout his career, but in 85 games for the Indians this past season, he posted excellent offensive numbers by slashing .318/.387/.482 with seven home runs and a 131 wRC+, also making arguably the best defensive play of the year. Teams should be weary of signing Jackson if they're expecting last year's offensive numbers, though, as he slashed just .254/.318/.343 (81 wRC+) without any home runs in 54 games for the White Sox in 2016. He's a mixed bag, but he could be a very useful fourth outfielder or a mediocre starter. For his career, the Dallas area native has 62 home runs, a .275/.336/.403 slash line, 111 stolen bases, and 19.8 fWAR over 999 games.

7. Jon Jay (Previous Team: Cubs. 2018 Age: 33)
2017 Stats: 2 HR, 34 RBI, .296 AVG, 6 SB, 101 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Jon Jay has virtually no power, but he's a decent defender in center field who can get on base at a good clip. This past season was a fair assessment of his ability, as he slashed .296/.374/.375 with a pair of home runs and a 101 wRC+, virtually league average production overall. On defense, he's not particularly fast but catches everything within his range, so he does fit in center field if you need him there. He can be a starter on a below average team or a very good fourth outfielder on any team. For his career, the 32 year old former Miami Hurricane has 33 home runs, a .288/.355/.383 slash line, 51 stolen bases, and 14.1 fWAR over 988 games.

8. Melky Cabrera (Previous Team: Royals. 2018 Age: 33-34)
2017 Stats: 17 HR, 85 RBI, .285 AVG, 1 SB, 98 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR
Melky Cabrera's 2017 numbers look good on the surface, but advanced metrics don't like him much. His slash line of .285/.324/.423 was essentially league average, as he showed more in the batting average department but wasn't able to augment it with enough walks to make it a strength. For his career, his walk rates have usually sat between six and eight percent, around league average, but that plummeted to a career low 5.4% in 2017 and sapped much of his offensive value. That said, Cabrera can still swing it, producing double digit home runs and slugging at least .394 in each of the past four seasons. If he can get back to being patient at the plate (which is possible considering his 46.1% swing rate was below his career average of 46.3%), he could be a productive regular in 2018, but he also turns 34 in August and may begin to slow down soon. For his career, the Dominican has 131 home runs, a .286/.335/.418 slash line, 98 stolen bases, and 13.4 fWAR over 1676 games.

9. Jose Bautista (Previous Team: Blue Jays. 2018 Age: 37)
2017 Stats: 23 HR, 65 RBI, .203 AVG, 6 SB, 80 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR
It may be surprising to see Jose Bautista ranked this low, but keep in mind that he just turned 37 and he is coming off a year where he slashed .203/.306/.366 with 23 home runs in 157 games. Right now, his value comes almost exclusively from power and walks, and at this point in his career, he is unlikely to turn it around. His strikeout rate jumped to a career high 24.8% this year, and at this point he's probably no better than a decent DH. However, it's always nice to have star power in your lineup, and Bautista can put fans in the seats at least early in the season. For his career, the Dominican has 331 home runs, a .250/.362/.480 slash line, and 33.7 fWAR over 1676 games.

10. Curtis Granderson (Previous Team: Dodgers. 2018 Age: 37)
2017 Stats: 26 HR, 64 RBI, .212 AVG, 6 SB, 105 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR
Curtis Granderson may have struggled like crazy after a trade to the Dodgers (.161/.288/.366 in 36 games), but he still put up an overall line of .212/.323/.452, which is quite good and in fact above league average (105 wRC+). He's a deceptively good player, one who gets on base and hits for power, it's hard to ignore that late season slump and the fact that he'll turn 37 in March. He should be a solid fourth outfielder on a good team or a starter on a bad team, but at the very least, he is a positive presence in the clubhouse. For his career, the UI-Chicago alumnus has 319 home runs, a .252/.339/.472 slash line, 151 stolen bases, and 46.1 fWAR over 1796 games.

11. Howie Kendrick (Previous Team: Nationals. 2018 Age: 34-35)
2017 Stats: 9 HR, 41 RBI, .315 AVG, 12 SB, 121 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR
Howie Kendrick boosted his stock with a big year with the bat, slashing .315/.368/.475 with nine home runs in 91 games, playing left field, second base, and first base. I wouldn't expect the same numbers in 2018 due to a high BABIP (.378 over a career .340) despite a regular hard-hit rate (31.4% over a career 31.3%). Still, he provides positional flexibility and has been a fairly consistent player throughout his career, so he could fill a super-utility role with his next team. For his career, the 34 year old out of St. John's River State has 104 home runs, a .291/.334/.421 slash line, 123 stolen bases, and 28.3 fWAR over 1435 games.

12. Seth Smith (Previous Team: Orioles. 2018 Age: 35)
2017 Stats: 13 HR, 32 RBI, .258 AVG, 2 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR
Seth Smith can still hit, as evidenced by a .258/.340/.433 slash line and 105 wRC+ in 2017, but he turned 35 in September and doesn't provide any defensive value, so you'll be buying the bat with him. He also can only hit right handed pitching, so he's strictly a platoon bat. That said, he has moderate power and walks a fair amount, making him a solid option down in the lineup. For his career, the former Ole Miss Rebel has 126 home runs, a .261/.344/.446 slash line, and 13.7 fWAR over 1249 games.

Others: Cameron Maybin (10 HR, .228/.318/.365, 88 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR), Nori Aoki (5 HR, .277/.335/.393, 97 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR), Matt Holliday (19 HR, .231/.316/.432, 98 wRC+, -0.1 fWAR), Michael Saunders (6 HR, .202/.256/.344, 53 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR), Jayson Werth (10 HR, .226/.322/.393, 88 wRC+, -0.3 fWAR)

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Nationals Acquire Outfield Help in Howie Kendrick

Nationals Get: Howie Kendrick (2 HR, 16 RBI, .340 AVG, 8 SB, 126 wRC+, Age 34)
Phillies Get: McKenzie Mills (12-2, 3.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 118/22 K/BB at Class A, Age 21)
International Bonus Money

Nationals outfielders currently on the disabled list: Adam Eaton, Jayson Werth, Michael Taylor, Ryan Raburn, Chris Heisey, and if you count him as both a shortstop and an outfielder, Trea Turner. Suddenly, it makes a ton of sense that the Nationals are adding an outfield bat in Howie Kendrick. After a down year with the Dodgers in 2016 (.255/.326/.366, 8 HR, 79 wRC+), Kendrick is having a bounce back season by slashing .340/.397/.454 with a pair of home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 39 games. It's a small sample size that includes an inflated .418 BABIP (career mark of .339), so obviously he won't hit .340 over extended time, but he'll bring added depth in a place the Nationals really need it. Rookie Andrew Stevenson can get more time to develop in AAA, and Adam Lind can slide back into the bench/first base role that he fills better than the left field role, where he is a defensive liability. The 12 year veteran is set to hit free agency after the season, but the Nationals only really need him as a rental anyways, where he can add insurance as the Nationals look to avoid speed bumps on their way to the NL East title while looking towards more. For his career, Kendrick has 97 home runs, a .290 batting average, and 119 stolen bases over 1383 games, accumulating 27.9 fWAR.

The Nationals drafted McKenzie Mills in the 18th round in 2014 as a high risk, high reward, high school arm, and so far, he's on track to fulfill that reward. They brought him along slowly, as he tossed just 57.2 mediocre innings between 2014 and 2015, and he performed adequately in 2016, going 4-5 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 12 starts for Class A Short Season Auburn, striking out 46 and walking 28 in 53.1 innings. They turned him loose in full season ball in 2017, and the results have been excellent. Over 18 starts, he has gone 12-2 with a 3.01 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP, striking out 118 and walking just 22 in 104.2 innings at Class A Hagerstown, earning a promotion to High Class A Potomac just one day before he was shipped to Philadelphia. The 21 year old lefty stands 6'4" and throws in the low 90's with a solid curveball and changeup that has has shown better feel for in 2017. Mills still carries considerable risk as a prospect, but he's trending in the right direction and is a good return for a rental like Kendrick.