2023 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

I usually love the way the Guardians draft, though I'm not as high on this class for them. It was an on-brand class, focusing on youth, hit tools (very, very much on hit tools), and up the middle talent if you count Ralphy Velazquez as a catcher. I don't think you could call any of the nine position players they drafted "power hitters," and a few of the mid-round guys have pretty extreme hit tool-driven profiles. They focused on bats early before pivoting to arms later, a strategy I typically like, though the Guardians are one of the best organizations in the country at developing pitching. Interestingly enough, at one point they rattled off a stretch of six straight picks from the ACC.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-23: C Ralphy Velazquez, Huntington Beach HS [CA] {video}
Slot value: $3.38 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($880,900 below slot value).
My rank: #41. MLB Pipeline: #34. Baseball America: #29. Prospects Live: #45.
In Ralphy Velazquez, the Guardians might have found the most advanced high school hitter in the country not named Walker Jenkins or Max Clark. When you watch him hit, it's clear he's just on another level relative to his competition even at star-studded showcase events. Velazquez is extremely patient at the plate, effectively identifying fastballs and offspeed stuff and finding pitches he can do damage on. When he does get fooled, he makes adjustments and you'll never beat him with the same pitch twice. And when he gets something to hit, he unloads with a powerful left handed swing, effectively elevating the ball and driving it out to all fields. He can also shorten up with and just get the barrel on the ball when he needs to, and overall there's not much he does wrong at the plate at all. If there's one qualm with his offensive game, it's that he's not an explosive or quick-twitch athlete – he's just an average mover in the box, but one that executes the fundamentals. That may limit his offensive upside a little bit, with his power coming more from the ability to consistent ability to barrel the ball rather than explosive bat speed or strength. Defensively, the Southern California native has been improving behind the plate but still has a long way to go, with strong fundamentals but an overall lack of that quick twitch athleticism to jump in front of dirt balls. His arm is accurate, but the pure arm strength there is just average. Bolstering Velazquez's profile is his youth, having only turned 18 in May, yet he should still move quickly. There's not much to teach a kid like this, at least offensively – you just have to guide his development and help him adjust to life in pro ball. It's likely an Eric Hosmer or Jacob Berry-like profile with 15-20, maybe 25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages at first base, but if he can stick behind the plate, the profile becomes a lot more attractive and he goes from Eric Hosmer to a bigger Carlos Santana. He also saved Cleveland almost $900,000 against slot value by signing closer to the value of the 34th pick, giving up an Arizona State commitment in the process.

2-58: LHP Alex Clemmey, Bishop Hendricken HS [RI] {video}
Slot value: $1.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($897,400 above slot value).
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #49. Prospects Live: #40.
After saving nearly $900,000 on Ralphy Velazquez, the Guardians immediately turned and spent all of it and then some on Alex Clemmey, giving him close to the slot value for the 37th pick here at #58 overall to divert him from a Vanderbilt commitment. He's just about the polar opposite to Velazquez, and not just because he grew up over 2500 miles away in the opposite corner of the country. While Velazquez is an advanced player with strong fundamentals but lacking in explosive athleticism, Clemmey comes in with one of the most electric arms in the entire country and a glaring lack of refinement. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but can reach back for as much as 99, with riding life from a lower arm slot that could make it a plus-plus pitch. He's still figuring out his breaking ball, which looks like a slider at times and a curveball at others, but it has plenty of depth and plays well out of his slot, with the chance to be a plus pitch in its own right as he gets more consistent with it. The changeup right now is a distant third pitch, but that's not surprising for a raw talent out of New England. However, the biggest area that needs immediate development and attention is his delivery and command. The 6'6" lefty has very long arm action in the back which gives way to significant head whack, leading to below average command and creating significant reliever risk. At the same time, though, he's a tremendous athlete that gets down the mound well and is extremely young for the class, turning 18 shortly after the draft, and he should be very receptive to pro coaching. The ceiling is very high if the Guardians get this one right, but he has a long way to go if he wants to remain a starting pitcher.

CBB-62: RHP Andrew Walters, Miami {video}
Slot value: $1.27 million. Signing bonus: $955,275 ($318,425 below slot value).
My rank: #95. MLB Pipeline: #124. Baseball America: #133. Prospects Live: #68.
Andrew Walters had a chance to go in the top handful of rounds last year, but opted to return to Miami and it looks like he may have earned himself some money, signing for nearly a million dollars (well below slot value, early third round money, around #75 overall). He has been one of the best relievers in college baseball ever since he stepped foot on campus at Miami after a year at Eastern Florida State, with a career 1.41 ERA and a 170/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 innings. In fact, over the past two seasons he has run an even better 134/13 strikeout to walk ratio, good for a 45.7% strikeout rate and just a 4.4% walk rate. Interestingly enough, Walters gets it done more or less with one pitch. His elite fastball sits in the mid 90's and tops out around 98, but plays like an invisiball with great riding action and the ability to hide it well. Beyond its velocity and deception, he also spots it with precision around the zone, and all together it alone has left hitters confounded throughout the ACC for three years now. The 6'4" righty has worked hard to incorporate his offspeed stuff better, with an improving slider and splitter that will help keep pro hitters honest, but the showstopper here is the fastball. We can look to former Arkansas star reliever Kevin Kopps as a bit of a comparison here, as he dominated the SEC on his cutter/slider alone and was old for the class when he was drafted, but that's still different from a fastball and he was 24 when he was drafted versus Walters being 22. Kopps reached AA almost immediately after being drafted but has stagnated there for a couple of seasons, and Walters will look to push past that and become the Guardians' next great closer. One of the better closers in recent team history, two time All Star Chris Perez, was also a Miami Hurricane.

3-93: 1B CJ Kayfus, Miami {video}
Slot value: $725,300. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($25,300 below slot value).
My rank: #194. MLB Pipeline: #151. Baseball America: #108. Prospects Live: #114.
The Guardians went back to Miami for the second straight pick, this time grabbing a first baseman with one of the better pure hit tools in the class. CJ Kayfus has been a model of consistency over the past two seasons, slashing .357/.462/.553 with 21 home runs and an 80/84 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games combined. He has tremendous feel for hitting with an extremely professional approach and the mindset of barrel to ball, nothing more. It's a quick, short left handed swing that generates moderate power with some whip through the zone, and he repeats it well in order to get his barrel on the ball all over the zone. He's also disciplined, walking at a 15.9% clip in 2023 while keeping his strikeout rate down and chasing less than a quarter of the time. The South Florida native is not overly physical, standing at 6', 190 pounds, and to me his overall offensive ceiling might be a bit limited with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 103, a moderate number. Kayfus doesn't offer a ton of value with the glove, having played mostly an adequate first base at Miami, but he has some moderate speed and may be able to handle left field fairly well if Cleveland wants at least a little bit of positional flexibility. Overall, he's much more of a pure hitter than a pure athlete, and his .299/.384/.351 slash line on the Cape last summer might be indicative of his MLB upside. If he can tap a little more power, that's an every day profile even if he's stuck at first base.

4-125: C Cooper Ingle, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $526,400. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($126,200 below slot value).
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #232. Baseball America: #170. Prospects Live: #207.
I've been much higher on Cooper Ingle than most of the industry throughout the process, so I like the Guardians getting him here in the fourth round while spending mid-fifth round money. He barely played as a freshman at Clemson, but broke out for a huge sophomore season (.351/.449/.526) before coming down to Earth a little as a junior (.328/.417/.461, 6 HR, 29/39 K/BB). Ingle is a fascinating hitter. Undersized at 5'10", he deploys a lightning quick left handed swing to shoot lasers around the park, focusing much more on contact than ever trying to turn on and lift the ball. At the same time, he's an extremely disciplined hitter than only chases around 20% of the time, leading to exceptional contact rates closing in on 90%. That slasher approach played up on the Cape, where he ran a .401 on-base percentage against elite pitching, but also slugged just .319. I'm curious to see what the Guardians do with his bat – with a 90th percentile exit velocity around 103 (a hair below CJ Kayfus), the power is fringy at best and he's not a big guy, but Ingle is generating that number without actually trying, at all, to hit for power. If he learns to turn on the ball and look to drive it in the air, I could see him approaching annual home run totals in the teens. But that's usually not how the Guardians develop their hitters and I expect they'll keep him in this slasher mentality, where he should run up high on-base percentages while rarely striking out but may struggle to reach double digit home run totals. Similar to first rounder Ralphy Velazquez, there are some questions about his ability to stick behind the plate, but for different reasons. He's nimble for the position, but not overly physical and his arm is just average. He also has spent significant time in the outfield for Clemson, splitting catching duties with Jacob Jarrell in 2023. If the Asheville native can stick as a catcher, the offensive profile should work just fine. If he's forced to a corner outfield spot, he suddenly looks a little more like a fourth/fifth outfielder.

5-161: SS Christian Knapczyk, Louisville {video}
Slot value: $371,000. Signing bonus: $385,000 ($14,000 above slot value).
My rank: #151. MLB Pipeline: #157. Baseball America: #100. Prospects Live: #98.
Christian Knapczyk makes it a third straight hit over power profile for the Guardians (what else is new), but in this case he's even more extreme than both CJ Kayfus and Cooper Ingle. Knapczyk has been one of the peskiest hitters in the ACC over the past two seasons, combining to slash .339/.469/.440 with three home runs, 36 stolen bases, and a 46/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 games. Even before that, he played on the Cape after his freshman season in 2021 and slashed .346/.423/.431, which is incredibly impressive for a 19 year old. Knapczyk is an extreme contact hitter with a slap-hitter approach, just peppering the ball around the field with little intent to do damage and instead using his plus speed to pick up extra bases. Standing just 5'9" and listed at 165 pounds, it's unlikely that he ever grows into even fringy power, with the ultimate offensive upside most likely limited to single digit home run totals and high, batting average-driven on-base percentages. He's a fairly disciplined hitter that doesn't chase much, but he makes so much contact that it also cuts into his walk totals even though he never strikes out (just a 9% K rate in 2023). Defensively, his plus speed gives him a shot to stick at shortstop, but he's a smaller guy whose arm might fit better at second base, where he could be an above average defender. It's probably a utility infield profile in the end for the Chicago-area product.

6-188: OF Tommy Hawke, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $295,000. Signing bonus: $295,000.
My rank: #187. MLB Pipeline: #238. Baseball America: #163. Prospects Live: #152.
In Tommy Hawke, the Guardians get almost an identical player to Christian Knapczyk except that he's even smaller and plays outfield instead of infield. Hawke has been just as pesky in the ACC as Knapczyk over the past two seasons, slashing .362/.474/.489 with nine home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 88/91 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games for Wake Forest. Generously listed at 5'8", he clocks in at just 155 pounds so he's coming in an inch shorter and ten pounds lighter than the already diminutive Knapczyk. He swings with a little more intent than Knapczyk, with the ability to turn on the ball and send it out if the wind is blowing out, and but ultimately ends up with almost the same offensive profile because he has very little raw power and his elite bat to ball skills help him get to balls all over the zone anyways. He's a little more patient than Knapczyk and also an even faster runner, clocking in at plus-plus at times, so his stat line might not be as solely reliant on his batting average, but it's still similar. That speed will help him stick in center field, though as you might expect he doesn't have much of an arm. He profiles best as a speedy fourth outfielder, and because he's eligible as a sophomore, he's young and only turned 21 just before the draft.

7-218: SS Alex Mooney, Duke {video}
Slot value: $231,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($768,700 above slot value).
My rank: #96. MLB Pipeline: #114. Baseball America: #83. Prospects Live: #94.
Another draft-eligible sophomore and the Guardians' sixth straight pick from the ACC, Alex Mooney signed way above slot value and in fact got early third round money (in fact just below the slot value for pick #72) here in the seventh round at #218 overall. I've always been interested in Mooney, who had serious top two round buzz coming out of high school in the Detroit area and ranked #49 on my 2021 list. Mooney has seen steady growth at Duke, slashing .292/.393/.392 as a freshman before improving to .315/.434/.504 with eight home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 43/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games as a sophomore in 2023. He lacks a standout tool, but he does almost everything well on the diamond and that's why I'm interested here. Mooney has a fairly advanced approach at the plate, with selective aggression that leads to moderately elevated chase rates, but he has strong bat to ball skills that keep his strikeout rates down. He also shows quick, accurate hands in the box that help guide the barrel all around the zone, making flush, line drive contact on pitches up, down, in, and out. The power began to tick up in 2023, but it's still below average and he'll need to continue to fill out his 6'1" frame in order to continue to tap it with wood bats. I'm slightly concerned about the low exit velocities, but only slightly and I do think increased strength will come and help him hit 10-15 home runs per season at the major league level. On the other side of the ball, he has a strong internal clock and good feel for the shortstop position, though he's more of an above average runner than a plus one and may not be quite explosive enough to stick there in the long term. In giving him a million dollars to sign, the Guardians clearly believe he has a good shot and I think he does have a chance. The youth certainly helps and I think Mooney has a chance to become a "boring good" everyday player that slots in at 2B or 3B with some pop and solid on-base percentages.

9-278: RHP Jay Driver, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $174,300. Signing bonus: $151,000 ($23,300 below slot value).
My rank: #162. MLB Pipeline: #241. Baseball America: #245. Prospects Live: #333.
I love Cooper Ingle, but this is probably my favorite pick of the draft for the Guardians, who get a potential high leverage reliever for less than slot value in the ninth round. The Ivy League stole Jay Driver's freshman year when they inexplicably cancelled the entire 2021 season, but he showed extremely well as a redshirt freshman reliever in 2022 before embarking on a successful Cape Cod League run where he struck out 48 batters in 29.2 innings. There was a lot of buzz around the local Boston-area kid heading into 2023 as Harvard announced it would move him to the rotation, but he pitched to mixed results with a 4.41 ERA and a 69/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings against relatively weak competition. At his best, he sits in the mid 90's and touches 97 with running and sinking action, but his velocity dipped closer to 90 in longer outings as a starter. His best pitch is a frisbee slider that dives across the plate, though it too flattened out in his starts. Driver is primarily a two pitch pitcher, with his changeup needing considerable work in pro ball. Everything gets extra deception from a unique delivery, in which he gets deep into his glutes driving down the mound and releases from a low three quarters slot, effectively hiding the ball and delivering it from a unique spot. If I'm the Guardians, I'm moving him straight back to the bullpen where his fastball/slider combination can hopefully get back to its former glory. If that works, he'll have a pair of plus pitches with average command from a deceptive slot, and could easily become an impact reliever in the near future.

13-398: LHP Jacob Bresnahan, Sumner HS [WA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($225,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #491. Prospects Live: unranked.
Jacob Bresnahan is a projection play for the Guardians, and they believe in him enough that they gave him fifth round money to sign here in the thirteenth round rather than fulfill an Oregon commitment. He's a bit of a late bloomer and his fastball just started to peak over 90 this spring, topping out around 92, while his breaking ball and changeup are coming along. It's a big looping breaking ball that needs power, while his changeup looks like a solid option and is probably progressing a little faster. He's a big, lanky lefty with a very projectable 6'4" frame and a loose delivery, so as he fills out the Guardians will almost certainly help him tack on considerable velocity. Young for the class having turned 18 shortly before the draft, the Tacoma-area native will need to be brought along slowly but could pay off nicely in time.

The top 7 unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2023

The draft is behind us, the signing deadline is behind us, and most importantly from my perspective, all thirty team by team draft reviews are behind me, so it's time to take a look at the guys who didn't sign. Those kids are back on campus now enjoying Week 1 of college football and taking part in fall practice to get ready for the 2023 season. Well, maybe not Jace Grady or Isaiah Thomas since Dallas Baptist and Lewis-Clark State don't have a football team. Usually I let this list go ten deep, but my personal draft list of 225 players, only six college players are returning to school. So here are those six, plus Colby Halter frankly because he's a famous name to help flesh this list out a little and one more bonus name at the bottom:

1. RHP Andrew Walters, Miami. My 2022 draft rank: #127.
Miami already returns a young roster for 2023 but is getting a huge boost with Andrew Walters unexpectedly coming back for his senior season. He was drafted in the eighteenth round by the Orioles and had a chance to sign when it became apparent that third rounder Nolan McLean would not, but that money went to seventeenth rounder Carter Young instead and Walters is happy to return to Coral Gables. After beginning his career at Eastern Florida State JC near his hometown of Palm Bay, he transferred to Miami as a sophomore in 2021 and excelled, earning a larger role in 2022 and posting a 1.65 ERA and a 62/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings this spring out of the bullpen. He carved up ACC hitters with just one pitch for the most part, a riding mid 90's fastball that tops out around 99 that hitters just could not pick up. He hides it extremely well and executes his locations, so hitters could sit on it and still come up empty. Walters adds a slider but it's a below average pitch, lacking bite and offering more a change of pace than anything else. If the Hurricanes want to, they can move the 6'4" righty into the rotation given his above average command, strong frame, and repeatable delivery, especially now with Carson Palmquist and Alex McFarlane gone to the Rockies and Phillies, respectively. A move to the rotation would really test his ability to execute that fastball over long periods of time, but the hope is that he can sharpen that slider into at least an average pitch to more effectively handle extended innings. To start in pro ball, he'll also need a changeup, but it would be perfectly reasonable for Miami to just send Walters back out in the bullpen as one of the best relievers in the ACC.

2. RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: #131.
Brandon Sproat going unsigned was a surprise, as the Mets drafted him in the third round but couldn't come to terms, making him the second highest drafted player to go unsigned after Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean. The Florida pitching staff usually gets raided during the draft, and as always they were prepared to replenish with a deep pool of underclassmen and a premium transfer in Hurston Waldrep from Southern Miss. Getting Sproat back on top of that is huge, and it gives the Gators one of the SEC's best staffs overall. He has always flashed huge arm strength from the right side but was held back by command, then took a big step forward in that regard as he moved into the rotation this spring to the tune of a 3.41 ERA and an 82/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. He sits in the mid 90's as a starter but can touch triple digits in relief, though the fastball can play a bit true and he didn't miss as many bats in 2022 as you'd like for someone that throws that hard. The Pensacola-area native has two quality secondary pitches in a solid slider that flashes above average as well as a changeup that looks plus at its best, and more effectively mixing those pitches in could help him miss more bats as well. His command has improved to fringe-average and he gets down the mound very well, lending hope that he can stick as a starter long term when that may not have been the projection heading into the season. To do so, he'll have to hold that command together and probably get a little more consistent with his breaking ball, and it would also be nice if he could find a way to put more life on his fastball. With a September birthday, the 6'3" righty is on the older side and will be nearly 23 when the 2023 draft rolls around.

3. RHP Colby Holcombe, Mississippi State (via Northeast Mississippi JC). My 2022 draft rank: #169.
For the second year in a row, Mississippi State will get one of the country's most talented JuCo arms to campus, but they'll hope for better results than Andrew Walling after he pitched just three innings this spring. Colby Holcombe spent his freshman year at Northeast Mississippi JC in Booneville, where he was downright dominant at times and posted a 2.60 ERA and a 115/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings. He had some duds, including three starts where he allowed at least five runs, but also had three different starts in which he went at least seven innings, allowed no runs, no more than two hits, no more than two walks, and struck out at least a dozen. Holcombe has overpowering stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching as high as 99. At this point, he doesn't always hold that velocity deep into his starts, but the arm strength is there. He spins two vertical breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, with the former coming in harder and the latter showing deeper bite. The Florence, Alabama native also works in a changeup, but he doesn't need it much and it's behind his other pitches. Holcombe is very young, only set to turn 20 in December, and will stay in Starkville for two years before he's draft eligible again. That gives him plenty of time to build up his stamina in a starting role and refine his fringy command, especially given his huge 6'7" frame that can make it difficult to keep his long levers in sync. His fastball also plays a bit true, which wasn't an issue when he was blowing it by hitters at Copiah-Lincoln Community College but could come into play in the SEC. Still, if he can sit consistently in the mid 90's, it remains a very good fastball.

4. OF Jace Grady, Dallas Baptist. My 2022 draft rank: #179.
It was a surprise to see Jace Grady go undrafted, but I guess he has unfinished business in Dallas. Grady broke out as a sophomore for the Patriots a year ago then continued to rake in the Cape Cod League, leading to talk he could go in the top two rounds this spring. While he still finished with strong numbers in 2022, slashing .310/.419/.509 with ten home runs and a 60/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, he wasn't quite as consistent as many hoped and looked more like a day two candidate than a day one pick. For that reason, he'll head back to Dallas Baptist and try again. Grady has a strong all-around game that fits very well in college, showing an all fields approach with some power to the pull side that played up with wood bats on the Cape. He made a lot of early count contact last spring, where he only walked or struck out in 26.8% of his plate appearances, but he often worked deeper this spring as that rate jumped to 36.1%. Similarly, many of his doubles and triples a year ago turned into home runs this spring, but that came with an increased strikeout rate from 15.8% to 21.7%, which is a bit too high for his profile. He'll look to get that back down in 2023 and play within himself. The Central Texas native stands just 5'9" and does possess some power, but he's at his best when he lets it come naturally instead of actively trying to tap it. He's also an above average runner that runs the bases well and could stick in center field once he does head to pro ball, though his below average arm would push him to left if he can't. At Dallas Baptist in 2023, he'll look to cut that strikeout rate back down and prove he can stick in center, where he would be much more likely to find an every day MLB role than in left.

5. 3B/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State. My 2022 draft rank: #190.
Nolan McLean was the highest drafted player to go unsigned this year, going to the Orioles at #81 overall to open the third round. Baltimore wound up signing seventeenth round pick Carter Young to a massive $1.33 million bonus, while McLean will head back to Oklahoma State. McLean came to Stillwater with a chance to earn some reps under Mike Gundy at quarterback, but never played a snap and is focusing on baseball, specifically playing both ways. Originally thought of as a better pitching prospect at Garner High School in the Raleigh area, his bat came on late but he went undrafted in 2020, then at Oklahoma State he was almost exclusively a hitter as a freshman in 2021. He got more reps playing both ways in 2022, and it's still not clear where his future lies, though the Orioles did draft him as a pitcher. McLean does have more experience as a hitter and slashed .285/.397/.595 with 19 home runs and a 107/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games this spring. The power is the real calling card, as he possesses plus-plus raw juice (evidenced by this 478 foot opposite field bomb) from a strong 6'3" frame and an extremely leveraged right handed swing. When he gets his arms extended and gets the barrel to the ball, he can absolutely mash a baseball like very few other amateur hitters in the country. Meanwhile, his 107 strikeouts set an all time Division I record, so swing and miss is a big part of his profile. He's moderately disciplined in the box but there is very little adjustability in his grooved swing, making him very much a mistake hitter and causing him to struggle when he doesn't pick the pitch up immediately out of the hand. Upon returning to school next year, cutting that strikeout rate from 36.9% down to something around 25% or better will be a priority. On the mound, he put up a 4.97 ERA this spring with a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, all out of the Cowboys bullpen. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets into the upper 90's, and he also shows feel to spin a breaking ball with both a curve and a slider that are trending up. His command remains below average and he's likely a reliever, but going back to school will allow for more clarity on his profile with just 27.1 career innings under his belt. With Victor Mederos (Angels), Bryce Osmond (Angels), Trevor Martin (Rays), and Kale Davis (transferred to Oklahoma) all gone from the Oklahoma State pitching staff, McLean will get a great opportunity to step into a bigger role in 2023.

6. RHP Ty Floyd, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #198.
LSU was already in a great spot after landing massive transfers like Tommy White, Christian Little, and Paul Skenes, among others, in addition to bringing in a hugely talented freshman class. Getting back Ty Floyd, one of the most talented young arms on their pitching staff, is icing on the cake. Floyd was one of the most talented young arms on the LSU staff in 2022 and probably wasn't quite pro ready, so returning to Baton Rouge is probably the best move for his career. This past year, he had a 3.77 ERA and a 70/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, mostly as a starter. Out of high school, he showed tremendous athleticism and projection that just needed refinement, and two years later, he's made modest improvement but remains raw. Floyd's fastball can touch 95 early but settles more in the low 90's as the game progresses, adding a slurvy breaking ball and a seldom used changeup. The fastball plays above its velocity because it comes in with a flat approach angle from short arm action, especially when he gets it up in the zone. It was good to see him hold up in a starting role this spring, though going back to LSU will give him the opportunity to tighten up that breaking ball a bit and help it find its identity, in addition to refining his nascent changeup. If he can do those two things while holding down decent command, pro teams will be very interested to get the live armed 6'2" righty into their system. There is a lot of untapped potential to be found here, but he hasn't quite put it together yet.

7. 2B Colby Halter, Florida. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Colby Halter was one of the bigger prep names to reach campus out of the class of 2020, then made an immediate impact as a freshman by slashing .302/.379/.453 in 49 games. With high expectations for 2022, he took a step back and finished at just .240/.338/.380 with eight home runs and a 66/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games as a draft eligible sophomore. Halter did find his stroke a bit in the elite Cape Cod League this summer, slashing .288/.391/.471 with seven home runs in 43 games (.304/.418/.511 before the draft), but still went unpicked as he looks to rebuild his stock. He has a very long track record of hitting dating back to his prep days, with the 2022 college season being the only time in his amateur career where he has looked anything but stout at the plate. The Jacksonville native makes good all fields contact when he stays within himself, though he got power conscious this spring and struck out at a 22.4% clip. His strong Cape run really helped reestablish his power potential, and because of that he has a shot for fringe-average power in pro ball. If he can get back to keeping it simple at the plate and get his strikeout rate safely below 20% next spring, he could be drafted somewhere on day two. It's a moderately attractive defensive profile as well, as he handled second base and third base capably for Florida and brings some versatility once he gets to pro ball.

Bonus: OF Isaiah Thomas, Lewis-Clarke State. My 2022 draft rank: unranked.
Isaiah Thomas is coming back. He ranked #109 on my 2021 list after slashing .305/.361/.583 with 13 home runs and a 63/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games at Vanderbilt, but went undrafted and came out at #5 on this same list a year ago. Instead of returning to Vanderbilt, he stepped away from the game for mental health reasons and didn't appear in a game in 2022. Now, it appears he's ready to go again, originally transferring across the country to Oregon before switching late to Idaho NAIA powerhouse Lewis-Clark State. Given that he'll turn 23 a few months before the next draft and hasn't swung a bat since 2021, it's hard to know what to make of the South Florida native, but expectations are high for 2023. He possesses plus raw power from a strong, lean, explosive 6'3" frame, and he tapped it consistently in games against an SEC schedule. He did so despite an extremely aggressive approach that led to a 25.8% strikeout rate and just a 3.7% walk rate, but his barrel is so accurate that it didn't hinder him at all. After swinging at nearly everything in 2021, he'll look to shore up that approach at Lewis-Clark State and force pitchers to come to him, if only to show teams that he can stay disciplined once he hits pro ball. Still, there aren't many hitters in college baseball that can scorch the ball like Thomas. Last time we saw him on the field, he was an above average runner with an above average arm, making for a very strong profile in right field, and it remains to be seen where the Warriors deploy him in 2023.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

The Orioles are a team on the rise, to put it lightly, and this draft absolutely helped push that along. With five of the first 81 picks, they had by far the largest bonus pool to play with and brought in a massive influx of talent, including five players who signed for seven figure bonuses. Baltimore went with bats early on and switched to a high volume of pitching around the middle of day two, often focusing on hitters with elevated strikeout rates with strong underlying metrics in the power, speed, and plate discipline departments. In fact, each of the first four college players they drafted (though technically one was as a pitcher and didn't sign anyways) and five of the first six ran at least a 19.7% strikeout rate this spring. I really like the talent they came away with here, as it goes far beyond potential superstar Jackson Holliday at the top. The most interesting thing they did was perhaps using money that may have been earmarked for third rounder Nolan McLean and instead putting it towards seventeenth rounder Carter Young, who had first round aspirations before struggling mightily at the plate this spring.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-1: SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #4.
Slot value: $8.85 million. Signing bonus: $8.19 million ($656,900 below slot value).
With the first overall pick, the Orioles took the kid that put together perhaps the most impressive spring in the country. Coming into the season, he was noted as a hit-over-power bat that stood out for his feel for the game despite over swinging at times during the summer, with most projections putting him in the second round. Then when the winter thawed in northern Oklahoma, he came out looking significantly bigger, faster, and stronger, and that immediately translated to results on the field. Holliday has always shown great feel for the barrel from a leveraged left handed swing that gets that barrel long through the zone, and in 2022 his newfound strength allowed everything to come together as he bashed home runs all over the field and all season long without sacrificing any contact. It's now a comfortably plus hit tool that is growing into plus power as well, making for an extremely balanced and potent profile at the plate. He also shows a plus arm in the infield and as he's gotten quicker and more explosive, he now projects to stay at shortstop long term. Everything, from the body to the in-game production, is trending up very quickly and the Orioles don't think he's done surprising people. It's hard to poke any holes in the game of a kid who shows advanced instincts and feel in addition to loud physical tools, and the bloodlines certainly don't hurt as the son of seven time All Star Matt Holliday (got it right this time). He had been committed to play at Oklahoma State, where the Holliday family name is as synonymous with the program as Stillwater is to red dirt, but once he rocketed to the top of the amateur baseball world this spring, it was pretty clear he was going pro. That pro career is off to a strong start, as he's slashing .280/.448/.380 with an exceptional 9/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBA-33: OF Dylan Beavers, California. My rank: #26.
Slot value: $2.32 million. Signing bonus: $2.2 million ($115,000 below slot value).
Dylan Beavers is a really interesting prospect with a great combination of track record and additional projection in the tank. He slashed .303/.401/.630 as a sophomore then held it steady at .291/.426/.634 with 17 home runs and a 54/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games as a sophomore. Beavers is a big, strong, athletic outfielder that does a lot well on the diamond and is steadily getting better. Standing 6'4", he employs an unorthodox operation in the box with a very simple, short swing from the left side that produces plus raw power due to his strength and long arms, even if he doesn't always get them extended. That power comes very naturally as he trusts his hands to do the work and doesn't waste much movement, though I would like to see what would happen if he got those arms extended more frequently. There has always been some swing and miss in his game and his strikeout rate held mostly steady from 2021 to 2022, dropping only slightly from 21.0% to 19.9%, but he did a better job of laying off bad pitches and watched his walk rate jump from 12.7% to 18.8%. It's definitely a power over hit bat and probably always will be, but he's moving in the right direction and I don't think it will be too much of an issue, especially if the Orioles can help him recognize offspeed stuff a little better. The Central Coast native is also a very good athlete for his size and runs well, giving him a shot at center field if he's not bumped by a better defender (like Jud Fabian) and doesn't slow down with age. With a strong arm, he should be above average in right field should he end up there. To top it off, Beavers is very young for a college junior and didn't turn 21 until after the draft, giving Baltimore even more time to mold him into what they want. I see a 25+ home run bat with solid on-base percentages and enough speed to provide additional value on both sides of the ball. So far, he's off to a red hot start between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva, slashing .338/.469/.523 with an 11/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games. 

2-42: 3B Max Wagner, Clemson. My rank: #49.
Slot value: $1.86 million. Signing bonus: $1.9 million ($38,100 above slot value).
If you want to talk about pop up prospects, Max Wagner is as "pop up" as it gets. He didn't get regular playing time as a freshman in 2021 and slashed just .214/.305/.345 in a part time role, but won the everyday third base job at Clemson in 2022 and became a one man wrecking crew not seen in the program since Seth Beer. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he slashed .369/.496/.852 with 27 home runs and a 51/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games and won the ACC Player of the Year award. He shows a quick, powerful right handed swing that is direct to the ball and wastes little movement, finding the barrel with extreme consistency this spring and showing off plus power in games. The exit velocity data is strong as well, portending to that power continuing to show up in pro ball with wood bats. He has always struggled with swing and miss, but he got his strikeout rate down to a reasonable 19.7% this spring as his pitch selection improved and he drove up his walk rate to an impressive 17.4% as well. Meanwhile, the Green Bay native has plenty enough arm strength to stick at third base and show well there. As he jumped onto scouts radars early in the spring, he was battling that right-right corner profile a bit, but when you put up a 1.348 OPS while playing in the ACC, that limitation matters less and less. He should be the everyday third baseman in Baltimore soon enough with a similar offensive outlook to Dylan Beavers, if perhaps a bit less upside. So far, he's slashing .250/.403/.396 with a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

CBB-67: OF Jud Fabian, Florida. My rank: #35.
Slot value: $1.03 million. Signing bonus: $1.03 million.
Jud Fabian is a fascinating player with a ton to dive into. A good prospect out of high school, he reclassified and came to campus at Florida a year early, then put himself in line for a multi-million dollar payday in the 2021 draft. The Orioles were rumored to be willing to give him close to $3 million a year ago, but the Red Sox snagged him one pick earlier and offered him significantly less. He went back to school and while he didn't get quite as much this time around, Baltimore finally got its man. In 2021, Fabian was noted for loud tools but evaluators worried about a 29.4% strikeout rate and a streaky bat that could come up empty for weeks at a time. Early in 2022, it looked like he was beginning to overcome those swing and miss issues, but streaky is as streaky does and he finished at 22.3%. Much better for sure, but still higher than you'd like to see, especially from a senior. So what's his deal? Fabian shows off plus raw power from the right side, consistently finding the barrel when he does make contact and elevating the ball with tremendous authority with a quick uppercut. He also possesses an extremely strong eye at the plate, limiting his chases while recognizing spin out of the hand – that led to a very strong 20.0% walk rate. The problem lies in his pure bat to ball skills, which are well below average as his uphill swing path doesn't keep his barrel in the zone for long. Even though he consistently picks the right pitches to swing at, he regularly swings through them even in the zone and there can be stretches where he looks like he's swinging at watermelon seeds. The rest of the offensive profile is so strong, though, that the Orioles are willing to bank on his power and pitch recognition making up for those bat to ball skills in the long run, perhaps with some help from their exceptional player development staff. The Ocala, Florida native also brings great value in the field, with above average speed and plus instincts making him a plus defender in center field. Add in that he's still age-appropriate for this class due to enrolling early, and it's an all around flawless profile aside from that one pesky but important thing – hitting the ball. That hasn't been an issue thus far in his pro career, where he's slashing .377/.494/.721 with three home runs and an 18/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League, Low A Delmarva, and High A Aberdeen.

3-81: RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State. My rank: #190.
Slot value: $794,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The highest drafted player to go unsigned in this draft, Nolan McLean was a draft-eligible sophomore who will head back to Oklahoma State to further establish what is a pretty raw profile at the moment. A well known two-way prospect out of high school that also competed to play quarterback for Mike Gundy's football program, McLean made it to campus and showed enticing ability on both sides of the ball but never quite put it together. He showed off tremendous raw power at the plate and slashed .285/.397/.595 with 19 home runs and a 107/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, but those 107 strikeouts were the most in college baseball history and that's a problem. The Orioles wound up drafting him as a pitcher on the heels of his 4.97 ERA and 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings out of the bullpen, where he ran his fastball into the upper 90's and showed off an improving slider. He doesn't have a ton of track record on the mound and for now it's hard to project him as a starter, which is part of why he's heading back to Stillwater to get more consistent innings. His money wound up going to 17th rounder Carter Young.

4-107: C Silas Ardoin, Texas. My rank: #139.
Slot value: $571,400. Signing bonus: $571,400.
Adley Rutschman will be entrenched behind the plate in Baltimore for as long as the Orioles can keep him around, but Silas Ardoin brings a very solid profile to slot in behind him. Ardoin didn't hit much over his first two years at Texas, where he was a glove-first regular and his defensive prowess outshined his lack of impact at the plate. That changed in 2022, when he broke out to slash .271/.391/.513 with 12 home runs and a 46/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, crushing his previous home run career high of one. The Louisiana native is still a standout defensive catcher, where he is very agile when it comes to blocking baseballs and recovering to put himself in position to throw out runners. A slingshot right arm helps as well, making him one of the most well rounded defensive catchers in the class. At the plate, he has always shown the ability to recognize pitches and work counts like a catcher should, but he has gotten stronger and found the barrel much more frequently in 2022. While he doesn't possess standout exit velocities, he regularly squares the baseball up and maximizes his below average raw power into fringe-average game power. Ardoin rarely chases and looks very pro ready, giving him an opportunity to join Rutschman in Baltimore sooner rather than later. So far, that pro-ready profile has translated to a .205/.418/.231 slash line and an even 14/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

5-137: RHP Trace Bright, Auburn. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $426,800. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($26,800 below slot value).
Trace Bright hasn't quite gotten the on-field results you want, but he has spent his career going up against Auburn's tough SEC schedule plus whoever they meet in the postseason. He dropped his ERA from 8.74 as a freshman to 6.98 as a sophomore and 5.16 this year as a junior, adding in a 94/38 strikeout to walk ratio over those 80.2 innings this season. The numbers won't pop off the page, but despite the high ERA he rarely got blown up and has always done a pretty good job of limiting damage. Bright stands out for his deep arsenal, led by a fastball in the low to mid 90's that can touch 97 from a lower release point. He adds a potentially above average slider and curveball with distinct movement, getting more sweep and power on the former and more depth on the latter. Rounding out the arsenal with a solid changeup, it should make for a very fun profile to play with to try to maximize his success. The Montgomery native has fringe-average command but stays within himself and his misses usually aren't egregious, and with an athletic, repeatable delivery, he's not far off from solid average or even above average command. There is projection remaining in his 6'4" frame and he makes for a high probability #4 starter with some upside. So far, he has made one appearance each in the Florida Complex League and at Low A Delmarva, tossing five innings of one (unearned) run ball, allowing just one walk and no hits while striking out seven.

6-167: OF Douglas Hodo III, Texas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $319,800. Signing bonus: $305,000 ($14,800 below slot value).
Douglas Hodo is an interesting one with an attractive combination of tools, performance, and polish. A three year starter at Texas alongside Silas Ardoin, he had his best year yet in 2022 slashing .319/.418/.532 with ten home runs and a 74/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games. He's hard to miss on the baseball field, playing hard on both sides of the ball and making things happen. Hodo possesses average raw power from the right side, but takes big swings and can really turn on the ball, with enough explosiveness in the box to send it out the other way on occasion. He can lapse into becoming a bit of a free swinger at times and struck out at a 21.8% clip this spring, probably more a product of that big uppercut than of a poor eye. Learning to tone it down in the box and trade some power for contact may help going forward, and his plus speed adds value when he puts it in play as well. In fact, his 26 doubles tied for the national Division I lead this spring. That speed and aggressive style of play helps him in center field as well, where he projects to stay long term with enough arm strength to make it work. Given that he's light on above average or even potentially above average tools across the board besides his speed, it's probably more of a fourth outfielder profile than an every day one, so the fact that he can handle all three outfield spots easily is a big boon. He's off to a bit of a slower start in pro ball, slashing .148/.378/.185 with a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

11-317: RHP Zack Showalter, Wesley Chapel HS [FL]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $440,000 ($315,000 against bonus pool).
Unrelated to Buck as far as I know. The Orioles spent fourth round money to lure Zack Showalter away from a USF commitment, banking on his projection and strong fastball metrics. He sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95, getting down the mound well with a low release height and riding action to carry his fastball above barrels consistently. He can spin off some solid sliders with depth, though it does need to add power and can get slurvy. Lastly, his changeup is a third pitch for now that he doesn't use often. Showalter brings projection in his 6'2" frame and his arm works well, promising increased velocity that could really help his breaking ball and turn his fastball into a true weapon. The Tampa-area native can get scattered with his command, which combined with the state of his secondary stuff leads to some relief questions, but he's young and has plenty of time to smooth all that out. I wouldn't expect him to move quickly but the Orioles could have some fun molding this profile.

16-467: RHP Graham Firoved, Virginia Tech. My rank: #222.
Graham Firoved has been around the block, beginning his career at Radford before transferring to the powerhouse Northwest Florida State JC program in Niceville. He moved on to Virginia Tech as a junior and has took on a prominent role in the Hokie bullpen for two years, this spring posting a 4.76 ERA and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 innings. Firoved runs his fastball up to 95 in relief, but the pitch plays above its velocity with great carry up in the zone. He spins an above average curveball as well that plays very well off his fastball, and it's yet another profile I think the Orioles could get very creative with. The Virginia Beach native threw a lot of fastballs when I watched him at Virginia Tech and got hit when he left it over the plate, and he could potentially benefit from mixing in his curveball more often to keep hitters guessing. Firoved also has fringy command that led to all those meatballs, and fine tuning that just a little bit so he can more consistently keep the ball around the letters would also be useful. Given his age (nearly 23), two pitch mix, and command, he's a pure relief prospect for now, but one that could thrive in the Orioles' system. He hasn't pitched too much to start, with two innings of two run ball under his belt on two hits, three walks, and one strikeout between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

17-497: SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt. My rank: #193.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $1.33 million ($1.08 million against bonus pool).
This will be one of the most interesting picks to track in the draft. Carter Young entered the season squarely in the first round conversation on the heels of a strong, if injury-interrupted, sophomore season, but he struggled mightily in 2022 and lost the starting shortstop role at Vanderbilt by slashing .207/.327/.383 with seven home runs and a 66/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He announced his intention to transfer to LSU and it looked like he would make it there, especially after he lasted until the seventeenth round, with a firm desire to rebuild his stock in a new environment. The Orioles felt that he was on his way to a huge comeback story in Baton Rouge and gave him roughly the equivalent of pick #56 money to sign, likely close to as much as he might have gotten had the draft been before the season. That big bonus meant that Nolan McLean couldn't sign above slot value in the third round, but the Orioles got their guy. Young is extremely tooled up, producing plus raw power from both sides of the plate and having tapped it for 16 home runs a year ago. At his best, he shows very attractive batted ball data with consistently high exit velocities and deep line drives around the park, even as he was facing tough pitching in the SEC. Meanwhile, he takes very big hacks to get to that power, and swing and miss has been a major concern. A shoulder injury limited him down the stretch in 2021 and many teams were willing to write off his sky-high 30.1% strikeout rate because of that, but he struck out at a 29.2% clip this spring and his performance suffered severely. The Orioles will have to find a way to cut that down, but given how he looked at his best in 2021, that is absolutely possible. The central Washington state native also brings great value on the other side of the ball as an above average defensive shortstop with a plus arm. His instincts and athleticism help him play above his average speed out there, and that defense will buy his bat additional time to develop. There is huge upside here, as evidenced by the massive signing bonus, but also a ton of risk with a guy who struck out at a 29% clip and hit his way out of the Vanderbilt starting lineup. It looks like he has already begun to turn it around a bit, slashing .296/.333/.444 with one home run and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio through 12 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Delmarva.

18-527: RHP Andrew Walters, Miami. My rank: #127.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
When it came to handing out the big bonuses at the end, it likely came down to Nolan McLean, Carter Young, and Andrew Walters as to who got the money, and Young took the deal so Walters will head back to Miami for a senior season. He was dominant for the Hurricanes this season, posting a 1.65 ERA and a 62/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.2 innings as a reliever, doing so essentially on one pitch. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 99, with great riding life and a ton of deception as he hides it very well. It's not Mariano Rivera's cutter, but against ACC competition in 2022, it played that way. Walters also adds a slider but it's more of a change of pace option to keep hitters from getting too comfortable, lacking hard bite. The Florida native could end up succeeding in the minors on that fastball alone, but sharpening up that slider into at least an average pitch would really help him profile in a larger role in the majors. With above average command and a sturdy 6'4" frame, he does look like he could start, but would need to add a changeup in addition to sharpening up that slider. Going back to Miami will show teams what is and isn't possible with his development because it will be hard to top the performance.