2023 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

It was an extremely high school-heavy draft class for the Tigers, who drafted nine preps overall and signed seven of them, including four in their first five picks. It appears they'll be playing the long game, in a sense creating the next wave of talent that should be up sometime in the 2026-2027 range. The class is heavy on position players, heavy on talent that can stick in the dirt (just one outfielder drafted after Max Clark), and especially early, heavy on advanced hitters. I like most of the picks here and I think Detroit is moving in the right direction with this class.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-3: OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] {video}
Slot value: $8.34 million. Signing bonus: $7.7 million ($641,700 below slot value).
My rank: #4. MLB Pipeline: #5. Baseball America: #5. Prospects Live: #5.
The Tigers popped the first high school position player off the board, and in doing so they brought in as dynamic a talent as you're going to find. Max Clark is already all over the internet as a social media-savvy up and coming baseball star, and he has the talent to match. He's not huge at 6'1", 190 pounds, but he's ideally proportioned at that size with plenty of lean muscle and an ultra projectable, long limbed frame. He has as long and as decorated a track record as any player in the prep class, with extremely consistent production against the top arms in his class going back a long time now. He takes great at bats, uses the whole field, and never tries to do too much at the plate with a clean left handed swing. Hit over power for most of his prep career, he has been hitting the weight room hard and has begun to turn on the ball more often, with at least average power now but likely to be above average power in the future as he fills out. Right there, you have not just a potential but a likely plus hitter with above average power, but it doesn't stop there. Clark is a plus-plus runner that moves gracefully on both sides of the ball, playing extremely well to his gap to gap hitting approach that should enable him to hit plenty of doubles and triples. Throw in his plus-plus arm and strong instincts, and you have a potential plus defender in center field to boot. It's an extraordinarily well-rounded profile that's a bit reminiscent of an early career Curtis Granderson or Grady Sizemore. To top it off, Clark is extremely competitive and well versed in the spotlight, with a likable demeanor and mature work ethic. It's tough to live in the spotlight like that (of course I am not speaking from experience here), and it will continue to be tough for the all-American kid, but he has handled it with grace to this point and I'd certainly bet on him to continue to achieve the lofty expectations around him. He hit well in the Florida Complex League but struggled a bit with an aggressive promotion to Low A Lakeland, overall slashing .224/.383/.376 with two home runs and a 25/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games.

CBA-37: SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonner HS [PA] {video}
Slot value: $2.31 million. Signing bonus: $2.85 million ($540,500 above slot value).
My rank: #31. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #25. Prospects Live: #21.
This is another fun profile that I'm curious to follow. Kevin McGonigle is one of the best pure hitters in the country, easily one of the most pro ready bats in the entire high school crop. The Tigers signed him away from an Auburn commitment here for most of the money they saved on Max Clark, rolling in for around the slot value of the #28 pick here at #37. McGonigle takes exceptional at bats, looking to do damage early with aggressive hacks but adeptly toning it down and making adjustments as he gets deeper in. You can't fool him with the same pitch twice. Showing a compact left handed swing, he uses the whole field effectively and can turn on the ball for some moderate pull side power to keep pitchers honest. It's certainly a hit over power profile, but one that could flirt with .400 on-base percentages while knocking 15-20 home runs per season at peak. The Philadelphia native also moves very well at shortstop, showing great body control and quick twitch athleticism despite average speed. However, he may be pushed to second or third base in the long run because he likes to set his feet before he throws, lacking the pure arm strength to make those tough throws on the run especially to his right. It's a profile that may not have the highest ceiling due to a lack of power projection at 5'10", but he has a chance to be a significant big league contributor for a long time. He hit the ground running in his pro debut, slashing .315/.452/.411 with one home run and a 10/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

2-45: SS Max Anderson, Nebraska {video}
Slot value: $1.91 million. Signing bonus: $1.43 million ($476,550 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #91. Baseball America: #71. Prospects Live: #61.
I love this pick, especially since the Tigers saved nearly half a million dollars to bring in a very legitimate second round talent with a signing bonus closer to the #57 slot here at #45. Max Anderson is a career .350 hitter at Nebraska that has never stopped hitting, including breaking out for a massive junior season in which he slashed .414/.461/.770 with 21 home runs and a 29/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He's also a two year performer in the Cape Cod League, sitting at .297/.356/.405 over a two year sample against elite pitching. Anderson has some of the best bat to ball skills in the class, showing the ability to find the fat part of the barrel no matter where it's pitched, including outside the zone. That's a very good thing because he's an extremely aggressive hitter that chases over 30% of the time, so if he's a good bad ball hitter, have at it. Not only that, but Anderson is one of the rare amateur bats that thrives against both velocity and offspeed stuff, showing the ability to recognize pitches, find his timing, and do damage no matter the location nor the pitch type. That should ease his transition to pro ball considerably despite his propensity to chase out of the zone. Once he makes contact, which is awesome, he has sneaky above average power that could give him 20+ home runs per season to go with his high averages, though he hasn't proven that power so much with wood just yet. The Hastings, Nebraska native is not a great athlete so shortstop probably won't happen despite the Tigers drafting him there. With a fringy arm and below average speed, even third base may be a challenge, so Anderson could end up at first base when it's all said and done. Finding a way to make it work at second or third base would obviously elevate the profile, but fortunately he has plenty of bat to profile even at first base. He hit .289/.345/.445 with two home runs and a 26/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games at Low A Lakeland.

3-76: LHP Paul Wilson, Lakeridge HS [OR] {video}
Slot value: $945,100. Signing bonus: $1.7 million ($754,900 above slot value).
My rank: #111. MLB Pipeline: #51. Baseball America: #51. Prospects Live: #116.
Paul Wilson represents the Tigers' largest over slot bonus in this class, getting the money for the #50 pick here at #76 to sign away from an Oregon State commitment. His father, Trevor Wilson, was a reliable starting pitcher for the Giants in the late 80's and early 90's, and now Paul will get his shot. Well-known in the Pacific Northwest already with a presence on the national stage, he really pushed himself up boards with a strong spring and earned his large signing bonus. He sits in the low to mid 90's and was reaching the upper 90's in the spring, getting more hop on his fastball to help miss bats. He shows nice feel to spin the ball with both a slider and a curveball, with the curve especially looking like a potential putaway pitch in pro ball. There's a changeup, too, with some fading action but overall more of an average pitch at this point. The 6'3" lefty looks pretty filled out as is and does throw with some effort from a short arm delivery, which could lead to relief risk. However, he did a better job this spring at holding his command together and maintaining his peak velocity and stuff, leading to increased optimism that he can start, and he's plenty physical enough to do so. The Tigers are buying big arm strength with feel to spin the ball and a positive trajectory, which is even better when you're getting it all from the left side.

4-107: SS Carson Rucker, Goodpasture Christian HS [TN] {video}
Slot value: $627,900. Signing bonus: $772,500 ($144,600 above slot value).
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #132. Baseball America: #297. Prospects Live: #190.
The Tigers kept at it with the high school picks here, pulling in the younger brother of Twins prospect Jake Rucker. While Jake reached AA this year, Carson will just be getting started with another over slot bonus to keep him away from a Tennessee commitment, where he would have played at his brother's alma mater. Carson is a well rounded hitter with a strong, projectable 6'2" frame that he has begun to fill out. He takes powerful, leveraged hacks from the right side to produce above average power, though the swing can get a little long at times and create some swing and miss. It's nothing egregious, though, and he's a solid pure hitter that can handle advanced stuff while still doing damage. He's solid at shortstop, but he'll likely get pushed to third base by a springier defender, especially if he slows down with age, but he should stick on the left side of the infield. It's a nice profile with a lot going for it that could develop into a solid every day contributor as he progresses. The bloodlines are nice to have as well, though it should be noted that the Nashville-area native is on the older side for a high school senior and turned 19 just a month after the draft. He hit .242/.390/.364 with one home run and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in his nine game Florida Complex League debut.

5-143: RHP Jaden Hamm, Middle Tennessee State {video}
Slot value: $442,200. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($44,700 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. Baseball America: #186. Prospects Live: #140.
Jaden Hamm jumped on the map with a strong fall practice last year and really established himself with an eleven strikeout one hitter against Evansville in March, though in all he was inconsistent and was blown up in a few starts. Overall, he showed a 5.31 ERA and a 93/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings and the Tigers are buying the guy they saw when Hamm was at his best. The fastball sits in the low 90's and can touch 97 in short stints, with huge riding action that makes it an above average pitch when he locates it. He adds a hammer curveball and a nice fading changeup, though those two pitches are less consistent than his fastball. The 6'1" righty has long arm action and comes from an over the top release point, which some hitters can get a good luck at especially if he's behind in the count and they're sitting on the fastball. Hamm does generally do a good job of locating that fastball but is less consistent in that regard with his offspeed stuff. The Tigers will want to focus on helping the Middle Tennessee native find more consistency with those offspeed pitches, which could make him a solid back end starter. If not, the fastball/curveball could play very well out of the bullpen especially as he likely adds a tick of velocity in that role. He looked extremely sharp in his pro debut, tossing twelve shutout innings (one unearned run) while striking out twelve and walking just one between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

6-170: C Bennett Lee, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $342,400. Signing bonus: $297,500 ($44,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #428. Prospects Live: unranked.
It may look like a backup catcher profile on the surface, and it probably is, but Bennett Lee is a fun prospect to get into your system regardless. He burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season at Tulane in 2021 (.440/.527/.600, 4 HR), then came back to earth a little bit as a sophomore. He transferred to Wake Forest in 2023 and held down the starting catcher role for the Omaha-bound Demon Deacons, slashing .303/.435/.472 with seven home runs and an even 32/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. It's not a standout offensive profile, but it's one that gets it done. Starting from a quiet setup, he uses the whole field and find the barrel consistently for hard contact, profiling for fringy raw power overall. He's very patient in the box and draws a ton of walks, helping him get on base at a .426 clip over his three year college career and providing a nice baseline for his offensive value. The offensive bar is lower for catchers, especially if they can defend like Lee. He has an above average glove back there with a strong arm, showing off his chops by working with the best staff in college baseball this spring. A hard nosed competitor, he'll be a great add to the clubhouse that will make his pitchers better, which is exactly what you want in a backup catcher. He showed off his patience by slashing .200/.444/.217 with an 11/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games at Low A Lakeland.

7-200: SS John Peck, Pepperdine {video}
Slot value: $267,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($44,500 below slot value).
My rank: #189. MLB Pipeline: #243. Baseball America: #150. Prospects Live: #176.
John Peck is certainly an interesting profile. He had a huge sophomore season in 2022 (.361/.417/.578, 7 HR) but struggled on the Cape over the summer (.182/.248/.245) and couldn't replicate his big sophomore season in 2023, when he slashed .272/.353/.441 with six home runs and a 51/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Peck is physically gifted if nothing else. Not huge at six feet tall, he has explosive bat speed from the right side that produces sneaky plus raw power that you rarely find this late in the draft, much less from a shortstop. However, he doesn't tap that power much in games and never hit more than seven home runs in a season at Pepperdine because he struggles to square the ball up and rarely turns on it with authority. The swing gets swoopy and he's prone to chasing breaking balls, leading to a high strikeout rate that was really exacerbated on the Cape, where he struck out 31.8% of the time. I'm far from sold on Peck's ability to make it work against pro pitching, but like I mentioned, you can't teach that kind of bat speed and when it comes from a quality defender, it's worth a shot here in the seventh round. The Southern California native has the arm to stick at shortstop, though he's not as twitchy as you'd like at that position and he may have to move to third base. Still, he should be at least an average defender there and it helps buy the bat some time to pull it together. There could be some Javier Baez in the profile if it comes together, though Baez is a freak athlete that far surpasses Peck in that regard. He hit .204/.391/.224 with a 13/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Lakeland.

12-350: RHP Andrew Dunford, Houston County HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $367,500 ($217,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
It was a big year for Houston County High School in the Macon area, with senior star Drew Burress and former Houston County Bear turned Georgia Bulldog Jaden Woods primed to do well on draft day. Burress priced himself out of the draft and will attend Georgia Tech, while Woods signed with the Pirates for slot value in the seventh round. So as it turns out, the highest signing bonus of any player from that school (which also recently produced Orioles pitcher DL Hall and Washington Commanders quarterback Jake Fromm) went to Andrew Dunford, who was unranked on every major public board. He's hard to miss on the diamond, standing 6'7" and already packed with muscle. The fastball sits in the low 90's and tops around 94, but with his size and athleticism, he's sure to add more velocity. He gets running and sinking action on it as well. His slider looks good when he finishes it, though it regularly backs up on him and needs more consistency. The same can be said for his changeup, which looks promising but again needs consistency. Despite his size, Dunford moves very well on the mound and stays around the zone. It's a frame you can absolutely dream on, with a huge ceiling as he works forward in his development. That kind of size and athleticism together is not commonly found. He tossed four shutout innings while striking out three and walking two in the Florida Complex League.

15-440: C Brady Cerkownyk, Connors State JC [OK] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
Brady Cerkownyk is an off the radar pick from the professional baseball perspective, but you certainly knew who he was if you were facing Connors State, a small JuCo in eastern Oklahoma. To say he terrorized the Oklahoma JuCo pitching ranks would be an understatement – in 55 games, he slashed .470/.555/.985 with 27 home runs, 23 doubles, and an 18/31 strikeout to walk ratio, including a .552/.639/1.162 line at his home Biff Thompson Field in Warner. After the season, he took a brief turn in the MLB Draft League and hit .243/.356/.324 with a 10/5 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven games. There's not a ton of public information out there about Cerkownyk, but we'll do our best. He's a 6' catcher with a very well rounded bat, controlling the strike zone very well and rarely swinging and missing against Oklahoma JuCo pitching. The strikeout rate rose from 7.3% at Connors State to 22.2% in his short MLB Draft League stint, and we have to expect that it's going to be a sizable jump in competition going into pro ball. He's got some thump in the bat too with a powerful right handed swing, but it remains to be seen whether he can tap it consistently in pro ball. The Toronto native has a strong arm behind the plate and gets out of the crouch quickly, though I haven't seen any video of his glovework. He's due to regress from his 1.540 OPS at Connors State, but even half that would be a nice find for a catcher. He played just two games in the Florida Complex League, picking up one single in six at bats while striking out once and getting hit by a pitch.

2023 MLB Draft: an updated look at the Nationals' #2 Pick

Before the season started, I explored ten options for the Nationals with the second overall pick while also taking a look at their recent draft history. A few months later, the picture remains fairly similar, but with the draft fast approaching in three months, we can start to feel a little more comfortable predicting those names. 

At this point, I would put about six names firmly in the mix - a quartet of SEC stars and a pair of high school outfielders. Of course, things can and will change between now and July, but if the draft were today, I would give it a ~90% shot that the pick is one of these six names. There's always the chance they could go under slot and save money to spend later, but given the fact that they won't be able to pick higher than tenth next season, plus their history of usually paying at least full slot in the first round, I doubt it. Let's take a look at those six names.

Number next to every player indicates their rank on my most recent draft board update.

OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)
Dylan Crews entered the season as more or less the top prospect in the class, and he's only cemented it so far this spring by slashing .510/.645/.882 through 31 games (yes, you read that right). It will be very, very difficult for the Pirates to pass up his generational bat with the first overall pick, but if they do, the Nationals should be all over him. Crews hits the ball harder than anybody in college baseball, spraying scorching line drives around the the field with incredible consistency, giving him potential 70 grade power in pro ball. Additionally, he's taken a step forward this spring as a pure hitter, controlling the strike zone with a professional approach and rarely missing on pitches in the zone. On the rare occasions in which he does, he makes great adjustments throughout his at bats and won't get fooled twice, which keeps the strikeouts way down. He hammers velocity, recognizes and waits back on offspeed, and is more or less impossible to get out. While his bat stands out more than his glove, he's a solid defender that has shown well in center field this spring and would fit well in a corner with that deep crop of young outfielders the Nationals possess. He should fly through the minors and could be in Washington by the end of the 2024 season with the potential for 30+ home runs annually and .400+ on-base percentages.

OF Wyatt Langford, Florida (#2)
While they're built differently as athletes and get to their production in different ways, the end result for Wyatt Langford is starkly similar to Crews and would make for a great consolation prize if the Pirates do indeed nab the LSU outfielder. After barely playing as a freshman, he has torn up the SEC over the past two seasons with huge numbers and shows no sign of slowing down now that he's back from a lower body injury that cost him a couple weeks in March. Like Crews, Langford shows plus-plus raw power from the right side and taps it consistently in games, though Crews gets to his peak exit velocities a little more frequently. Which of course is no knock on Langford, and more just another example of how elite Crews is. While Crews is whippier and more rotational in the box, Langford's power comes more from pure strength and leverage. Like Crews, he has great feel for the barrel and controls his at bats extremely well, rarely chasing and forcing pitchers to come to him. It's a plus hit tool that could help him tap 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a high clip, hitting in the middle of the order. He also has a similar defensive profile to Crews, sliding over to center field this year now that the elite Jud Fabian is gone to the Orioles' system. He's a surprisingly strong runner for his size and might have a better shot to stick in center than Crews, though Crews has a better arm and would provide more value in a corner.

RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#4)
At this point, Paul Skenes feels like the most likely pick here as an elite, safe bet, high ceiling college arm with a traditional profile. He has consistently gotten better and better and better and now looks like a potential generational talent on the mound. In fact, if pitchers weren't so inherently risky nowadays, I would have him as the #2 prospect on this list. A transfer from Air Force, he has turned himself into a monster on the mound for LSU and through eight starts he has a 1.14 ERA and a 91/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings, good for a 52.9% strikeout rate. To put that in perspective, the highest strikeout rate of any college pitcher taken in the first round last year was Cooper Hjerpe's 39.6% - and his 161 strikeouts led all of Division I. He does it with a fastball that now sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 102, and he can run it or let it ride depending on the situation but usually opts for the former. Skenes' slider has taken a massive step forward this season as well, adding significant sweep while maintaining its hard upper 80's velocity. It's a pitch that could strike out major league hitters today. This spring, he's also shown feel to work it into more of a power curve with short, vertical bite. His changeup has long been a star pitch as well and profiles as plus with great fading action, but he's gone more to the slider this spring because, well, nobody can hit it no matter how much he throws it. With a big, durable frame, above average command, and that service academy work ethic, he seems like as safe a bet as you can get from a pitcher. I would have a really, really hard time seeing Mike Rizzo pass on Paul Skenes if he's available at the second overall pick.

RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#5)
Paul Skenes has taken a massive step forward this spring. Crews and Langford also look like better hitters than they were a year ago, and that's saying something considering the kind of 2022 seasons they had. Meanwhile, Chase Dollander is the only player in this quartet to take a step backwards this season, but he remains an elite prospect. After posting a 2.39 ERA and a 4.2% walk rate last year, he's up to a a 4.19 ERA and a 7.7% walk rate this year, while his strikeout rate has held steady around 35%. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and runs it up to 98, and while last year it showed explosive riding action that made it a plus-plus pitch, it has played more as straight plus this spring with moderate riding life. He still snaps off a nasty, plus slider with hard sweeping action, while also flipping in a more traditional curveball and changeup. He's a very good athlete on the mound that gets great extension to help his pitches play up further, with above average command to both sides of the plate even as he's taken a slight step backwards in that regard. It's still a profile with four average or better pitches, two of which are plus, and above average command from an athletic, durable frame, with plenty of upside especially if he recaptures his 2022 magic. He has every bit as much of a chance to be an ace as Paul Skenes, with potentially a little more variance in the profile. At this point, he's trending in the wrong direction and Mike Rizzo probably prefers Skenes at this point at second overall, but if he gets hot down the stretch, he'll certainly be in play.

OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [TX] (#3)

Playing in colder weather in central Indiana, Max Clark just got going recently, so there's not much to update on since the preseason writeup. He's still a potential five tool player with an extremely projectable frame and the ability to impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Previously more of a line drive, gap to gap hitter that let his power come naturally, he is showing a little bit more loft in his swing this spring that could help him tap additional power as he grows into it. And he'll certainly grow into it, with a very projectable 6'1" frame and natural leverage in his left handed swing. Given his prodigious hit tool, which has him taking great at bats against high level pitching, recognizing spin, and using the whole field with ease, I don't think this added loft will cause any level of concerning swing and miss. Looking at current Nationals outfielders, he's not quite as big as James Wood or Elijah Green and will never have quite as much power, but he's a better pure hitter than both and has the speed to stick in center field. He's a prime candidate to progress naturally and get steadily better as he rises through the system, and he may not require as much patience as the average prep because of how advanced he is right now. I haven't heard his name thrown around as much for the Nationals but I would be thrilled if he was the pick. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will not come cheap.

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#6)
As with Max Clark, we don't have a huge sample size for Walker Jenkins quite yet but he has been going a little longer in coastal North Carolina. And in the early going, the returns have been very impressive. Impressive enough that the Nationals draft a high school bat in the first round for the third year in a row, and a high school outfielder for the second year in a row? It's tough to say, but it's a good problem to have. Jenkins has more power than Clark and is probably more similar to Wyatt Langford as a prospect, though he has the advantage of batting left handed. It's comfortably plus raw power that he taps in games from a very strong 6'3" frame, a "big league body" as they say, and natural loft and leverage in his left handed swing. He never needs to sell out for home runs, which has helped him grow as a pure hitter as well with a disciplined approach and improving pitch recognition. The pure hit tool is still probably a bit behind that of Langford, Clark, and Dylan Crews, but he's also the youngest player in this set of six and he has had no problem with advanced pitching wherever he has gone. Jenkins has been dinged up by injuries at times in the past, but he's fully healthy now and that shouldn't be an issue. He profiles similar to Crews as a defender, with some speed and a strong arm that will make him an asset in right field. At this point, the Nationals will probably lean on the SEC track record of Crews or Langford if they're going to draft a bat, but Jenkins' combination of youth, physicality, and performance would be tough to pass up if perhaps they wanted to cut a deal. He is committed to North Carolina.

2023 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at second overall

Had draft order rules not changed with the most recent CBA, the Nationals would be picking first overall for the first time since their back to back picks in 2009 and 2010, which netted the team future franchise cornerstones Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The CBA created a draft lottery that no longer guaranteed the Nationals the first overall pick, but all told, they should be very happy to come away with the second overall pick.

Mike Rizzo and the Nationals have drafted incredibly poorly over the past decade or so, not only whiffing on almost every single first round pick but also failing to find value later in the draft, which in reality matters even more than that first pick. The team has not drafted and developed an impact player since Anthony Rendon in 2011 – not in the first round, not in the second round, and not in the twentieth round. That is the result of a player development system that has fallen far, far behind most of the rest of the league, relying on traditional development methods rather than embracing new technology and trends in the game. Fortunately, however, the tide appears to be turning. While I wasn't thrilled with the 2021 and 2022 drafts as a whole, I was thrilled with the Brady House and Elijah Green picks as first rounders. And while it remains to be seen how much use the organization gets out of the slew of new hires in the analytics and player development realms, the hiring spree represents a very positive sign in its own right.

That hiring spree might make it hard to peg just what kind of players the Nationals are looking to target in this draft, but in terms of that first pick, things get a little easier to prognosticate. There are only so many names in play at the very top no matter a team's drafting style, and they'll probably have their eye on the top half dozen or so prospects once the day rolls around. 

For now, though, we have a whole season to play and the names will not be the same in July, so we can have a little bit of fun with this list. Common knowledge would recognize that the Nationals are far deeper in young outfielders than they are in any other demographic, which would seemingly rule out names like Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins at the top, but there is a very important extra bit of context to bring home; you don't draft for need. If the best player available is an outfielder, it doesn't matter that the Nationals already have Elijah Green, James Wood, and Cristhian Vaquero, among others, in the system – you draft the outfielder anyways. That also means there is no need to jump at a pitcher with this pick despite the absolute dearth of arm talent in the system, unless they determine that a pitcher is the best remaining player. Again, it doesn't matter that the Nationals have a bunch of outfielders and no pitching. If they see an outfielder as the best player available, take him and not the pitcher. With that, here are ten possibilities for the second overall pick, ranging from right-now favorites to a few wild cards that may not be in play just yet at the top of the draft but could get there with a strong spring. Remember, 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was not in the first round conversation at all at this time a year ago.

Number in parentheses after school name denotes current rank on my draft board.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#3)
At this point, all signs point to Chase Dollander as the favorite for the second overall pick. I just hammered home the point that you do not draft for need, but the truth is the Nationals really, really need pitching and Dollander may very well be the best player available on draft day. In fact, many scouts have called him the best college pitcher they've seen in years, right up there alongside names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and David Price. The Mike Rizzo we know and love would be beyond thrilled to get the Augusta, Georgia-area native into the system, so he's as good a name as any for Nationals fans to follow this spring. It's as complete a profile as you're going to find at the college level, setting up from a very athletic, projectable 6'3" frame. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has been creeping closer and closer to triple digits, adding explosive riding life from a release point that gets great extension. In a vacuum, it's one of the best fastballs in college baseball, but there is much more to the profile. Dollander also rips off a nasty slider with short, powerful sweeping action that is distinctly different from his downer curveball, while his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. All of this comes from a clean, athletic delivery that helps him effectively locate his entire arsenal to both sides of the plate, ensuring every pitch is competitive and giving plenty of confidence his stuff will continue to play up in pro ball. He enters the spring as the near-consensus best pitcher in the country, and if he can stay healthy while repeating his exceptional 2022 (2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB) in the always tough SEC, it's hard to imagine Mike Rizzo passing up the chance at a future ace. Once drafted, he could move very quickly and give a much needed boost to a young Nationals pitching core currently led by Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, and a bit further down, Jarlin Susana.

2. OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)

Chase Dollander may be the frontrunner for the Nationals at pick number two, but Dylan Crews is probably the better prospect at this point and sits comfortably in the top spot on my draft board. If the Pirates don't take him first overall, I would hope Rizzo and co. would pull the trigger here unless his bonus demands are outrageous. He's the kind of bat that can transform a lineup, and throwing him into that outfield mix with Green, Wood, Vaquero, Robert Hassell, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Brenner Cox might give Washington the best group of young outfielders in baseball. Crews was considered a first round talent early in the 2020 draft cycle but an up and down summer leading up to his senior year of high school dropped him closer to second round consideration. He wound up at Louisiana State and has done nothing but hit since day one, slashing .356/.458/.677 with 40 home runs over 125 games while playing a very tough SEC schedule. The power potential here is simply different. He consistently produces some of the highest exit velocities in college baseball, punishing baseballs to all fields that never seem to come down. He can take you deep to in any direction on any day of the week, profiling for 30+ home runs annually at the big league level. Crews isn't just a slugger, though – he's a very patient hitter at the plate that takes professional at bats and consistently works counts into his favor. When he does get a pitch he can do damage on, he rarely misses it, and his career 16.8% strikeout rate is very impressive as an underclassman power hitter in the SEC. He may be a little bit power over hit at this point, but it's not by much. Additionally, he started all 62 games for LSU in center field last season, bringing above average speed and a plus arm that makes him a net positive out there as well. Teams love up the middle talent early in the draft, and at least for now, Crews fits that profile. However, with numerous prospects that could fit in center field long term, he would probably profile as a right fielder in the Nationals' system and could become at least an above average defender there. He would likely move quickly and could potentially beat every outfield name I mentioned earlier to the majors.

3. SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi (#4)
Dylan Crews and Chase Dollander are the top two prospects in the draft for now, but Jacob Gonzalez is the top infielder in the country and could easily hit his way into this spot just by continuing the pace he's set over his first two seasons at Ole Miss (30 HR, .315/.424/.560). The Nationals are not developing talent well at all right now, and by drafting Gonzalez, they would get one of the most big league-ready players in the class that doesn't need much development. He has impeccable feel for the strike zone, walking four more times than he struck out as a true freshman before bumping that number to eighteen as a sophomore. He is completely comfortable with premium SEC pitching and should seamlessly transition to pro pitching, perhaps enough to start off with AA Harrisburg in 2024. Gonzalez also packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame and channels it very well in his left handed swing, showing easy plus raw power to the pull side. He's mostly a pull hitter to this point, but his pitch recognition skills enable him to be successful with that approach even when being pitched on the outer half. It might take some tweaking in pro ball as pitchers are able to better execute to the outside corners and change speeds more effectively, but I really don't imagine he'll have any trouble at all adjusting. Unlike Crews, Gonzalez would give the Nationals an infield bat to join a pretty thin group at that position group in the system. A shortstop for now, he probably fits better at third base going forward due to below average foot speed, but he's plenty athletic enough to stick there. Gonzalez' batting average and on-base percentage dropped from .355/.443 as a freshman to .273/.405 as a sophomore as pitchers stopped pitching to him, but if he adjusts back like he is capable of, he would make a lot of sense at #2.

4. OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] (#2)
Could the Nationals make it three years in a row taking a prep bat? Prep bats are my favorite demographic, and the team made me very happy drafting Brady House and Elijah Green the past two seasons. If they go that route again in 2023, Max Clark is in my opinion the clear top prep player on the market with a tremendous combination of physical projection, present feel for the game, and work ethic. More so than any high school hitter in the country, I feel confident Clark is going to grow into his game naturally and become a true five tool player down the line. For now, he's hit over power with a line drive, gap to gap approach that has him hitting for high averages against elite prep pitching. He recognizes spin and can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone, utilizing a simple operation in the box rather than selling out for power and trying to do too much. That said, the power will come. He has a very well proportioned 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add strength, and he has been hitting the weight room hard to help build that strength. As he fills out physically, the power will come naturally without him having to change his approach at the plate, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages while still putting up high home run totals. Beyond his bat, Clark is an elite defender in center field with plus-plus arm strength and plus-plus speed, making for the highest upside in the class. In some ways, he'd be a perfect complement to Green, who also shows that double plus speed and arm strength, with the right handed hitting Green a power-over-hit bat that is looking to even things out and the left handed hitting Clark a hit-over-power bat looking to tack on strength. If the draft were today, I would be thrilled with any of Crews, Dollander, or Clark in this spot no matter what the bonus demands were.

5. RHP/DH Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#12)

As I've mentioned, the Nationals' system is almost completely barren of pitching talent and they could really use an impact arm to give the system a boost. At this point, I much prefer Chase Dollander (and Hurston Waldrep for that matter), but Paul Skenes has generated buzz near the top of the draft and does feel like a guy Mike Rizzo could target if he takes well to the SEC.  He dominated the very hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference while at Air Force to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings last year, and this year he joins LSU in hopes of proving his chops against the best hitters in the country. The stuff is trending up and up and up, and he looked even better this fall when he ran his fastball up to 99 and flashed plus with both his slider and his changeup. Big and durable at 6'6" and 235 pounds, he pounds the strike zone and creates difficult angle with his size. In the spring, he'll need to show that his improving stuff can miss bats in the SEC after running a more-good-than-great 27.0% strikeout rate at Air Force last year, when his fastball was a few ticks slower and his slider played closer to average. That version of Paul Skenes would probably fit closer to the back of the first round, but showing that mid 90's velocity and plus offspeed stuff over a full spring season would make him a top ten prospect. Of course, he comes with that service academy work ethic that only adds to the profile.

6. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest (#13)
Rhett Lowder probably fits closer to the middle of the first round at this point and my ranking reflects that, but he's the kind of pitcher that could play his way to an under slot deal with the Nationals if he builds his stock a little this spring. Again, there isn't much pitching talent in the system right now, and Lowder's advanced all around game would be a welcome site if he takes another step forward this spring. He's up to 97 with his fastball and and shows above average with his slider and changeup, giving him a nearly big league ready arsenal as it is. Lowder also commands everything very well for his age and could report straight to AA Harrisburg to start 2024, with advanced feel for pitching that is hard to find at his age, especially among pitchers with his kind of stuff. At this point, he lacks a true swing and miss offering and profiles more as a safe bet #3 starter than a true top of the rotation stalwart, so there is work to be done. If he wants to go second overall, he'll need to miss more bats this year and improve on last year's 25.1% strikeout rate either by adding some life to his fastball or some snap to his slider. I certainly believe that is possible, and if he can do that, he's the kind of pitcher Mike Rizzo would love to add into the system on a below slot deal.

7. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida (#7)
Hurston Waldrep is a very different pitcher, but he does find himself in a similar position to Paul Skenes transferring into the SEC. He comes from Southern Miss, where he struck out 140 batters in 90 innings for a sky high 37.3% strikeout rate. There are some very strong lineups in Conference USA, but the jump to the SEC will certainly be a test for Waldrep and therefore an opportunity for him to boost his stock even further. With an uptempo delivery and a skinny build at 6'2", he doesn't look on the surface like the low risk, steady starting pitcher that you'd think Rizzo would target at the top of the draft (Dollander, Skenes, and Lowder fit that description better), but he is a little reminiscent of other top ten picks like Carson Fulmer and Jack Leiter. Everything with Waldrep is explosive. The fastball is easily in the mid 90's and approaches triple digits with big time riding action, while the rest of his arsenal is equally impressive. He shows a hard slider, a power curve, and a rapidly improving splitter that all flash at least above average if not plus, so it's hard not to see him continuing to miss SEC bats in bunches like he did in the C-USA. With average command, the SEC will be a test as more advanced hitters will make it a little tougher for him to control the strike zone. He walked 8.8% of his opponents last year, which isn't a huge number but is still the highest on this list above Dollander (4.2%), Lowder (6.2%), and Skenes (8.5%). If he can continue to elicit chases and avoid walks with Florida while maintaining his stuff and health, Rizzo may be interested in his services on a below-slot deal, especially if Dollander, Lowder, and Skenes don't seize their opportunity.

8. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian (#9)

The last time the Nationals drafted, developed, and reaped the benefits from an impact player was 2011, when they took Anthony Rendon with the sixth overall pick out of Rice. Twelve years later, they may have an opportunity to make a similar pick from the Lone Star State in TCU's Brayden Taylor, though Taylor has the added benefit of batting left handed. While there's no matching the otherworldly numbers Rendon put up for the Owls from 2009-2011 (52 HR, .373/.505/.680 in 187 games), Taylor has been a one man wrecking crew in his own right for two years now (25 HR, .319/.450/.574 in 117 games) and still won't turn 21 until May. He fits what the Nationals like as an advanced, all-around bat that can do a little bit of everything. Taylor takes extremely professional at bats, as evidenced by drawing more walks than strikeouts in both his underclass seasons. He controls the strike zone, rarely chasing but consistently doing damage on the pitches he does choose to attack, helping him produce elite on-base percentages of .445 and .454 the last two seasons. He's definitely hit over power at this point, but he does show average power overall and can take you deep to the pull side when he turns on one. At this point, I don't think he's in play at the second overall pick, but he's not far off and his to do list is pretty simple. Fairly slender at 6'1", tacking on some strength and tapping more all-fields power in 2023 would certainly move him closer to the conversation, and given his youth and athleticism I could definitely see that happening. Taylor has also played almost exclusively third base during his time at TCU, but with Tommy Sacco gone to the Astros, he could get some looks at shortstop this year. He has shown well at the hot corner to this point and if he also takes well to shortstop, that would be another feather in his cap. Show both the added power and the aptitude at shortstop, and you have a strong candidate to go second overall to the Nationals.

9. 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#16)
Usually, teams prefer up the middle talent at the top of the draft. Aidan Miller, the younger brother of Reds prospect Jackson Miller, may not quite fit that description, but if he can prove what he needs to prove in 2023, he could work his way as high as the Nationals' pick at #2. It's some of the best power in the prep class, coming naturally from a big league body at 6'2" that enables him to tap it consistently without selling out. Miller also takes big league at bats, with a disciplined approach that helps him stay in the zone and attack pitches he can do damage on, though like many power hitters, he can be prone to chasing fastballs up. There are some moving parts in the swing which hamper his pure hit tool, representing an opportunity where he can improve and potentially push his draft position up, which presently stands closer to the middle of the first round. Given that he'll already be 19 well before the draft, the Nationals will want to see that polished up a bit before rolling the dice at pick #2. More pressing, though, especially at the top of the draft, is his future position. A plus arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he's not a quick twitch guy and can't afford to slow down much more. If he can come out and continue to show good range at the hot corner this spring and help Rizzo and co. feel comfortable that he can avoid a move to first base, it would make them much more likely to pull the trigger this early in the draft, especially if his hit tool ticks up a little in addition. He wouldn't be the first player from J.W. Mitchell High School in the Tampa suburbs to star for the Nationals, as the school was also one of the many stops Tyler Clippard made as he bounced around from high school to high school as an amateur.

10. SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton HS [AZ] (#20)
We'll round it out with a wild card pick. In ranking Cholowsky 20th on my board, I'm actually significantly higher on him than Baseball America (#28), Prospects Live (#33), and MLB Pipeline (#35), and he still has a ways to go to get to #2. Still, eventual 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was ranked outside the top 50 on many lists at this point a year ago, and I think Cholowsky has a chance to be that guy in 2023. The Phoenix-area product is a fantastic athlete that actually has a chance to play quarterback at UCLA in addition to baseball, and it's that physical upside that makes me think he could make the jump. He moves effortlessly on the diamond, showing above average range and arm strength that makes the shortstop position look easy, so he already has that up the middle defensive projection that teams prefer at the top of the draft. Of course, you're not drafting anything less than a future top/middle of the order bat at pick #2, and Cholowsky does have some work to do to get there. The good news is the foundation is there, so if he comes out in 2023 a little stronger and a little more polished, he could fly up boards. He already shows very natural bat to ball skills and for the most part combines that with good swing decisions, making for a potential above average hit tool in the future. His swing is also very fluid and with the physical upside I mentioned, any strength gains could get him to at least average power if not better, especially as he learns to make better use of his legs. So there are two things that need to happen for Cholowsky to make the leap: more polish, and more physicality. I think the physicality is more or less a given and could easily show up this spring, while the polish may come a little later given his two-sport nature but is also pretty strong as it is. I really like this kid and I would be thrilled to see him swing his way up to #2.

Other Top Ranked Candidates

OF Wyatt Lanford, Florida (#5)

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#8)
SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonnor HS [PA] (#10)

OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt (#11)

SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon (#14)

Other Dark Horse Candidates

OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College (#6)

OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech (#18)
SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS [FL] (#21)
LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy [MA] (#22)
LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama (#37)