Once completely barren, the Diamondbacks farm system has undergone a very impressive makeover, and there are a couple factors to credit. One was improved results from their international development, with guys like Geraldo Perdomo, Kristian Robinson, Wilderd Patino, and Luis Frias looking like potential impact players and Jazz Chisholm helping to net Zac Gallen from Miami. Another was the Zack Greinke deal, which brought some big names in Seth Beer, J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Josh Rojas, helping to fill out the top of the system while guys like Pavin Smith, Drew Ellis, and Andy Yerzy saw their bats stagnate a little bit. And lastly, they had eight of the first 93 picks in the 2019 draft class, with which they grabbed one of the best pure hitters in the high school class, a pair of high upside high school arms, a pair of power college arms, and a trio of safer bet college players. It's a fairly spread out system that's led by a few impact bats in Beer, Robinson, Alek Thomas, and Daulton Varsho, as well as a deep array of pitching that includes no sure things but a lot of kids with one or two things they need to smooth out before reaching their high upside.
Affiliates: AAA Reno Aces, AA Jackson Generals, High A Visalia Rawhide, Class A Kane County, short season Hillsboro Hops, rookie level Missoula Osprey, complex level AZL and DSL Diamondbacks
Catcher
- Daulton Varsho (2020 Age: 23-24): Varsho, who was drafted in the second competitive balance round out of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in 2017, is an interesting prospect. In 2019, he slashed .301/.378/.520 with 18 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 63/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at AA Jackson, which is a very interesting stat line for a catcher. Varsho is a great all-around hitter, one who possesses an excellent understanding of the strike zone and who makes hard contact consistently. He also has some power despite standing 5'10", which helped him hit those 18 home runs in 2019 to go along with 25 doubles and four triples. Unlike most catchers, he's actually an above average runner who has stolen 40 bases over the last two seasons, and he actually runs well enough to handle center field or potentially second base. That's important, because he's not a great defender behind the plate – he's good enough for now, but his fringy arm strength isn't ideal for the majors. Not many catchers can impact the game offensively like he can, though fortunately he won't be pushed to first base if he can't stick back there, so he'll still have defensive value. The fact that Carson Kelly probably has the catcher's role locked down for the long term doesn't help his chances of remaining a catcher. I like Varsho as a prospect and he profiles for 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Dominic Miroglio, Jose Herrera
Corner Infield
- Seth Beer (2020 Age: 23): Beer was one of the top hitters in the country at Clemson, where he slashed .321/.489/.648 with 56 home runs over three years, but questions about how his bat would play against pro pitching as well as his lack of defensive value knocked him to the Astros at the end of the first round in 2018. He answered those questions with a strong pro debut in 2018 (.304/.389/.496) and was hitting well again this year when he got shipped to Arizona in the Zack Greinke deal. Between the two organizations, he slashed .289/.388/.516 with 26 home runs and a 113/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A and AA, and it's safe to say those questions about his bat are behind him. Beer is a very competent hitter with both power and the ability to get to it, and while he's not walking at twice the rate he's striking out anymore, he's still controlling the zone well and limiting his strikeouts. The flip side is that he's a defensive liability, as he has played left field for most of his career but as the slowest guy on the field, he wasn't catching much. He's been playing more first base recently and that's probably his spot going forward, but he's far from a stud there either. Fortunately, his bat will play anywhere, as he has the potential for 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages if he can make enough contact.
- Kevin Cron (2020 Age: 27): How do you crack a prospect list as a soon-to-be 27 year old without much defensive value? By taking just 84 games to lead the entire minor leagues with 39 home runs, all the while slashing .329/.446/.777 with a 79/61 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly at AAA Reno. Cron also added six more home runs in the majors to get up to 45 total on the season, slashing .211/.269/.521 with a 28/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 39 games along the way. Cron's a big dude at 6'5" and a listed 250 pounds, and it's no secret what makes the former TCU Horned Frog a valuable player. He has big time power that he has gotten to consistently for years, now with 151 career minor league home runs and a .529 slugging percentage, and the ability to get to that power consistently against high level pitching. Now there is some swing and miss in his game, and it was exposed in his brief time in the majors, and as a first base/third base type with a fringy glove, he has to hit to provide value. He does hit both lefties and righties well, so he's not strictly a platoon bat, and he'll likely be a more of a pinch hitter/bench bat than a full time starter.
- Pavin Smith (2020 Age: 24): Smith's advanced bat made him the seventh overall pick out of UVA in 2017, but he hit for less impact than expected at first and slashed just .255/.343/.392 in High A in his first full season in 2018. He slumped at the beginning of 2019 as well, but he got hot over the last two months of the season to finish at .291/.370/.466 with 12 home runs and a 61/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Jackson. The biggest thing that he had going for him in college was exceptional plate discipline, which he has retained in pro ball and it makes him nearly impossible to strike out, but so far the big power surge he had as a junior has not fully translated. He did hit more balls in the air in 2019, and I'd wager that most of those came in the second half when he got hot. If that is indeed the case, then Smith may have turned the corner for real and he might be well on his way to becoming a starting first baseman capable of 15-25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. MLB.com might have given up on him because he's outside their top 30 Diamondbacks prospects, but I'm far from doing so.
- Drew Ellis (2020 Age: 24): Ellis, like Smith, is a 2017 draftee (second round out of Louisville) who has lost a bit of his prospect sheen. He's been an average hitter throughout his time in the minors, and in 2019 he slashed .235/.344/.406 with 14 home runs and a 109/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Jackson. He's maintained great plate discipline, albeit not on Smith's level, but the overall impact he's generating at the plate isn't quite what was hoped for. He's unlikely to be a full time starter, though he has hit just enough to keep his hopes alive of becoming a bench or platoon bat – he hits lefties well and slashed .271/.353/.504 against them in 2019.
- Tristin English (2020 Age: 22-23): The Diamondbacks picked up English in the third round out of Georgia Tech in 2019, and they signed the senior under slot to save some money for earlier picks. He had a successful pro debut where he slashed .290/.356/.482 with seven home runs and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at short season Hillsboro, though he was already 22. English has power as well as a track record of hitting well against advanced pitching, and the fact that he limits his strikeouts so well means he can get to his power consistently. He doesn't draw a ton of walks, as he likes to make contact early in the count, but he doesn't necessarily need to in order to provide value at the plate. As a first baseman, even with his strong arm that could have gotten him drafted as a reliever, he won't be providing too much value on defense, so his bat will have to carry him. He's likely a guy who hits 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, which might be just a bit light for a starting first baseman.
- Keep an eye on: Buddy Kennedy, Yoel Yanqui, Spencer Brickhouse, Endy Estrada
Middle Infield
- Domingo Leyba (2020 Age: 24): Leyba was originally a Tigers prospect who came over in the three team, Didi Gregorius/Robbie Ray deal of 2014, and in 2019 he slashed .300/.351/.519 with 19 home runs and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at AAA Reno, as well as .280/.367/.440 with a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 major league games. Leyba's power surge was probably a bit of a Pacific Coast League mirage, but his high contact rates bode well for his major league future. The Diamondbacks have a pretty crowded infield scene, and Leyba's bat is a bit too light to justify a full time starting role, but he has a good shot at being a utility infielder who could make some spot starts at second base. There's not a ton of upside, but he's ready now.
- Andy Young (2020 Age: 25-26): Hoping to become the first North Dakota native in the majors since Travis Hafner, Young came over in the Paul Goldschmidt trade and slashed .271/.368/.535 with 29 home runs and a 121/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at AA Jackson and AAA Reno in 2019. Like Leyba, his power surge in Reno was a bit of a PCL mirage, but he does have more power than Leyba and could hit 10-20 home runs in the majors with decent on-base percentages. He's fairly average all around, with no standout tools and no true weaknesses, and he'll be battling Leyba for a utility infield spot in 2020. Leyba has the better hit tool, Young a bit more power, and Leyba is a bit better on defense.
- Geraldo Perdomo (2020 Age: 20): It's been really interesting to watch the trajectory of Geraldo Perdomo, who signed for just $70,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016 then hit a fascinating .238/.410/.285 in the Dominican Summer League. There was virtually no impact in his bat, but at 17 years old he could control the zone like nobody else in his league. He found some of that impact in 2018 by slashing .322/.438/.460 in the low minors, then in 2019 he hit .275/.397/.364 with three home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 67/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at Class A Kane County and High A Visalia. Despite coming off his age-19 season, Perdomo has the best plate discipline in the system with the patience to draw tons of walks as well as the bat control skills to make contact at any point in the count. He's a switch hitter with a quick, direct to the ball swing from both sides of the plate, and he's so good at finding that barrel that might be able to tap some power in his 6'3" frame if he chooses to do so. Set to play all of 2020 at just 20 years old and having already shown the ability to handle High A pitching, he's a really interesting guy to follow and I'll be watching closely to see if he can tap some power next year. Of course, we haven't even talked about his defense, which is great and makes him an asset at shortstop, and he's not the fastest guy on the field but his instincts have enabled him to steal 66 bases in his minor league career.
- Liover Peguero (2020 Age: 19): Perdomo isn't the only teenage Dominican shortstop making waves in this system. Peguero, signed for $475,000 in 2017, had an unremarkable .259/.311/.340 run through complex ball in 2018 before breaking out to slash .326/.382/.485 with five home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at rookie level Missoula and short season Hillsboro in 2019. Despite playing the entire season at 18 years old and with just 19 stateside games under his belt, Peguero went straight to rookie ball and raked, showing wiry strength that generated good gap and over the fence power while making consistent hard contact. He's in a pretty similar place to where Perdomo was a year ago, albeit with a bit more power and with less plate discipline, and he should hit full season ball as a 19 year old in 2020. Like Perdomo, he has a strong glove and should stick at shortstop, adding to his value.
- Keep an eye on: L.T. Tolbert, Luis Alejandro Basabe, Blaze Alexander, Jose Curpa, Glenallen Hill Jr.
Outfield
- Alek Thomas (2020 Age: 20): Thomas was a second round pick out of a Chicago high school in 2018, noted more for his feel for the game than for any loud tools at the time. However, he's just hit and hit since then, and in 2019 he slashed .300/.379/.450 with ten home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 105/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A Kane County and High A Visalia. He's shown a great understanding of the strike zone for his age and has had no trouble putting the barrel on advanced pitching, and he's even begun to tap some power that he hadn't really shown in high school. He's also a great runner that can make his speed play on both sides of the ball, though at this point his below average arm makes him more of an average center fielder. Overall, he has a lot of great building blocks for a kid who won't turn 20 until April, and with his contact-oriented approach, he could be a leadoff man at the major league level by the time he's 21.
- Jake McCarthy (2020 Age: 22-23): McCarthy was a competitive balance pick out of UVA in 2018, a year after the Diamondbacks drafted his teammate Pavin Smith, though the injury problems that bugged him in college have continued into pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .277/.341/.405 with two home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 52/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at High A Visalia, though his season ended on July 7th when he left the game with an undisclosed injury. McCarthy has always had an explosive swing that should be conducive to power, and I liked him on draft day because I thought he could start to generate some, but he continues to be more of a line drive/ground ball hitter rather than one who tries to loft the ball, and I think he could hit for some actual if he did so. The continued injuries don't help him, but hopefully a healthy 2020 can see him drive the ball more in the air and hit 15-20 home runs – he already does hit a lot of extra base hits with 30 doubles and seven triples in 111 career minor league games. McCarthy is also a great runner who has stolen 39 bases in those 111 games, and it helps him play good defense in the outfield, though he might be more of a left fielder than a center fielder in deference to Alek Thomas. I still like McCarthy, but the power has to come at some point if he wants to be more than a fourth outfielder.
- Kristian Robinson (2020 Age: 19): The Diamondbacks picked up Robinson for $2.5 million out of the Bahamas in 2017, and so far, he's been worth every penny. He followed up a strong first season in 2018 with a breakout 2019 where he slashed .282/.368/.514 with 14 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at short season Hillsboro and Class A Kane County. He has a lot of wiry strength at 6'3", and it helps him generate a lot of raw power that he's beginning to tap in games. He has an all fields, line drive oriented approach, and learning to add loft to his swing could help him hit 25-30 home runs annually. There is some swing and miss in his game, but he has been playing consistently with older competition, as he reached Class A at just 18 years old in 2019. Robinson has the highest ceiling in the entire system, and he just needs time to figure things out. Defensively, he's great in the outfield and could stick in center, giving him the opportunity to impact the game on both sides of the ball.
- Corbin Carroll (2020 Age: 19): The Diamondbacks had seven picks on day one of the 2019 draft and eight of the first 93 overall selections, and their first one, at pick #15, was Corbin Carroll out of high school in Seattle. He was as-advertised in his pro debut, slashing .299/.409/.487 with two home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Hillsboro. A smaller guy at a skinny 5'10", he was drafted on the basis of his plus speed as well as his exceptional feel for hitting. He doesn't have much raw power, but he maximizes what he does have because he finds the barrel very consistently and can handle advanced pitching. His defense is a work in progress but is trending up, and he should be an asset in center field down the line. In a few years, he and Alek Thomas could be a dynamic 1-2 punch leading off the Arizona lineup.
- Dominic Fletcher (2020 Age: 22): Fletcher, drafted in the second competitive balance round out of Arkansas in 2019, is kind of a case where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Standing 5'9", he lacks standout tools in any area but he makes consistent line drive contact from the left side and was able to hit .318/.389/.463 with five home runs and a 50/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at Class A Kane County in his pro debut. He's got some pop, but not a ton, and he makes good contact. An aggressive hitter at Arkansas, he was more selective in his pro debut and that paid big dividends for his production. He's also a fringy runner, but his instincts in the outfield enable him to play a solid center field or an above average left field. Fletcher will likely work his way up in a fourth outfield role, but if he keeps hitting for as much impact as he did in his pro debut, he could conceivably start and hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Wilderd Patino (2020 Age: 18-19): Patino drew a lot of walks in his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 but didn't do much else, then broke out to slash .319/.378/.447 with a home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 46/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games in the complex level Arizona League and at rookie level Missoula in 2019. Patino was just 17 years old when he started out in the AZL this year and hit .349/.403/.472 there, though he was a bit exposed as a barely-18 year old in the Pioneer League after the promotion. He doesn't hit for a ton of power at present, but his short, explosive right handed swing could easily generate above average or even plus power down the road, and his advanced approach at the plate has allowed him to hit against much older competition. He's also a good runner, giving him a well-rounded game, and he has some of the better upside in this system. There's still a long way to go but the early returns are great.
- Keep an eye on: Ben DeLuzio, Eduardo Diaz, Jorge Barrosa, Dominic Canzone, Jeferson Espinal, Alvin Guzman
Starting Pitching
- Jon Duplantier (2020 Age: 25-26): Duplantier went in the third round out of Rice in 2016, then went 17-4 with a 1.79 ERA over his first two-plus pro seasons. He bounced between the majors and the minors in 2019, posting a 5.44 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 innings between AAA Reno and some lower level rehab, as well as a 4.42 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 34/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 major league innings. A healthy Duplantier is absolutely a major league starter, as he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add a curve, a slider, and a changeup while commanding everything pretty well when he's on the mound consistently. Unfortunately, nagging arm problems have limited him since college, and 2017 was really his only truly healthy season when he threw 136 innings. It's hard to have much faith that Duplantier, now 25, can throw 150+ innings in a season at the major league level, but if he can, they'd be dominant innings and he could be a #3 starter. The Diamondbacks have a bit of a crowded rotation picture, and while it's certainly not impenetrable, he's probably going to have to prove himself in the bullpen first before getting another crack at starting.
- J.B Bukauskas (2020 Age: 23): Bukauskas, who grew up in the same hometown of Ashburn, Virginia as current D-Backs starter Taylor Clarke, was a first round pick out of UNC by the Astros in 2017 then came over to Arizona in the Zack Greinke deal. After an injury-interrupted but strong 2018 (2.14 ERA, 71/24 K/BB), he was more inconsistent in 2019 and posted a 5.44 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 109/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings at the two AA affiliates. There's no question about the stuff, at all, as Bukauskas sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a devastating slider that has never failed to miss bats consistently, while his changeup has improved since college and he's added a harder cutter. The problem lies with his command, which is well below average and which causes his stuff to play down. Additionally, it's hard to project the 6' right hander to significantly improve his command, one because he hasn't yet and just turned 23 in October and two because he throws with a lot of effort in a jerky delivery. The Astros were unable to smooth him out, and maybe the Diamondbacks will, but it's a big question mark. If he can't get close to average command, his fastball/slider combination can and will make him an impact reliever, one who could potentially even close games, but if he can figure it out somewhat, he could be a mid rotation starter.
- Corbin Martin (2020 Age: 24): Martin grew up in the Houston area and attended Texas A&M, then got drafted in the second round by his hometown Astros one round after Bukauskas and was shipped together with him and others in the Zack Greinke trade. Martin was successful in AAA in 2019 with a 3.13 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings, and he also posted a 5.59 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP, and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 major league innings. However, something wasn't quite right with his arm and he went down with Tommy John surgery in July, shortly before the trade. That puts his 2020 season in jeopardy, because at best he'll be available in a limited role for the stretch run in September. For 2021 and beyond, though, Martin is one to look forward to. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and complements it with a big breaking curveball and a harder slider, as well as a changeup, and his command has improved since college. It's a classic #3 or #4 starter profile, and once he gets healthy, he'll be given every chance to claim a spot in the rotation. We'll just have to see how he handles returning from injury and whether the Diamondbacks end up pushing him to the bullpen, where he was successful in college.
- Josh Green (2020 Age: 24): Green was a very under the radar 14th round senior sign out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2018, but he was a known commodity by the end of his pro debut, in which he had a 1.09 ERA and a 25/9 strikeout to walk ratio in short season ball. Green then took a massive leap forward in 2019, posting a 2.71 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 101/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at High A Visalia and AA Jackson, then went and dominated in two Southern League playoff starts. If there is one way to describe Green's stuff, it's "heavy." He generates a ton of ground balls with all of his pitches, throwing a low to mid 90's sinker while adding a downer curveball and more of a diving slider, as well as a changeup, and he did a great job of hitting his spots and keeping everything low in the zone in 2019. Everything comes from a closed off delivery that makes him difficult to pick up, and he's proven durable enough to handle a starter's workload, something the names above him on this list very much have not yet. Green's still a bit of a sleeper but he has legitimate rotation aspirations and could stick in the rotation longer than any of those names above him on this list as more of a #4 innings eating guy.
- Levi Kelly (2020 Age: 20-21): I can't currently think of any active major leaguers from western West Virginia, though Charleston-area native Levi Kelly would like to change that (though his high school did produce 1957 World Series MVP Lew Burdette). Kelly, an eighth round in 2018 after transferring to the IMG Academy, had a huge breakout in 2019 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 126/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings, often outshining his teammate and the more highly regarded Matt Tabor in that Class A Kane County rotation. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has focused on his slider in pro ball, turning it into a real weapon. Those two pitches, combined with a changeup that has improved in pro ball, were too much for Class A hitters, and it will be interesting to see how he fares against most advanced competition. Kelly's command has come along nicely in pro ball, but there is still more work to do on that front if he wants to become a mid-rotation starter.
- Matt Tabor (2020 Age: 21-22): Tabor was a third round pick out of a Boston-area high school in 2017, and while the Diamondbacks have brought him along slowly, he's been effective every step of the way. In 2019, Tabor posted a 2.93 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 101/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings at Class A Kane County, where he joined Kelly and Jackson Goddard in one of the better Class A rotations around. A raw talent coming out of high school, he's basically a more refined version of what he was in 2017. He still sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good changeup, and his slider still needs work, but he's ironed out his mechanics and is throwing a lot more strikes than he used to. He's a bit more refined than Kelly now, but he's also a year older, and while Tabor has the better changeup, Kelly easily has him beat with the breaking ball. Tabor will need to continue to refine his offspeed stuff, but otherwise, he understands pitching and shouldn't have any trouble working his way up towards the majors, with a #3/#4 starter projection a reasonable ceiling.
- Shumpei Yoshikawa (2020 Age: 25): Yoshikawa grew up in Japan, but he jumped directly from Japan's Industrial League, which is more or less what it sounds like, to the Diamondbacks system and completely bypassed the NPB, Japan's major league. He then posted a 3.75 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 123/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.1 innings at High A Visalia, which certainly isn't half bad in your first taste of a foreign country. Yoshikawa doesn't throw overly hard, sitting around 90 with his fastball, but he gets most of his strikeouts with an excellent changeup that he can deploy against both lefties and righties. His breaking balls need to get more consistent, but fortunately he does fill up the strike zone and taking that step forward could help him become a back-end starter.
- Luis Frias (2020 Age: 21-22): A converted infielder, Frias has made a lot of progress over the last few years and is well on his way towards ditching the "raw power arm" label for good. In 2019, he posted a 2.83 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 101/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings at short season Hillsboro and Class A Kane County, refining multiple parts of his game along the way. He can sit in the mid to upper 90's with his power fastball, and he adds a big, downer curveball that just keeps on going as well as a harder changeup. While he's no control artist, he's made significant strides with his command and it's approaching average, though it still needs continued refinement. He's still somewhat raw, as he could probably use to sharpen his curveball just a touch and get more consistent with his changeup, but the building blocks are in place and he's shooting up prospect lists. If the rotation doesn't work out, his fastball/curveball combination could make him lethal in relief.
- Drey Jameson (2020 Age: 22): Jameson was a compensation pick out of Ball State in 2019, though he struggled to throw strikes in his debut and posted a 6.17 ERA, a 1.97 WHIP, and a 12/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.2 innings at short season Hillsboro. He's a little guy at a listed 6' and 165 pounds, but he throws really hard with a mid 90's fastball and a pair of distinct power breaking balls and he can maintain that stuff deep into games. However, there is significant reliever risk for a multitude of reasons, including his size, the effort in his delivery, and his inconsistent command. In order to stay in the rotation, Jameson will a) need to prove his durability and either b) develop his changeup or c) get more consistent with his command, but given the stamina in his right arm, he'll be able to fight hard to remain a starter. If he does move to the bullpen, the fastball and breaking balls could make him an impact reliever. It's a high risk pick for the compensation round, given that he'll turn 23 at the end of the season, but it could be a high reward one.
- Brennan Malone (2020 Age: 19): Malone went one pick before Jameson out of the IMG Academy, though he grew up in the Charlotte area before transferring for his senior year. The move paid off and in his pro debut he posted a 4.50 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio across eight innings in the complex level Arizona League and at short season Hillsboro. Malone is very athletic, standing 6'4" and throwing four good pitches. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, which he developed at IMG, a curveball which is inconsistent but which can flash plus, and a solid changeup. His command is coming along nicely, though he does have more work to do on that front. He's a very well-balanced arm for someone who will play the whole coming season at 19 years old, and he has a shot to become a #3 starter down the road.
- Tommy Henry (2020 Age: 22-23): Henry had an extremely up and down junior year at Michigan, then went in the second competitive balance round in 2019 before allowing three runs (two earned) over three innings at short season Hillsboro in his pro debut, striking out four and walking none. He dominated early in the season, got knocked around a lot in the middle, and got hot in the NCAA Tournament against good lineups, so really, it's hard to say what he'll become. He can sit in the low 90's and add a sharp slider and a good changeup when he's on, though his stuff tends to flatten out at times and you never really know which Tommy Henry you're going to get. His command fluctuates as well, as he can really lock down the strike zone at times but at others, that command plays closer to average. That's better than fluctuating on the other side of the average line, and in all, the lefty has real upside as a #3 starter. There's a lot of risk, though, as he doesn't quite have that power relief profile should he wind up in the bullpen and he'll turn 23 in July, making him somewhat old for a college junior draftee.
- Blake Walston (2020 Age: 18-19): Walston, selected seven picks before Malone in the back half of the first round, has a higher ceiling but more work to do to get there. Coming out of a Wilmington, North Carolina high school, he posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 innings between the Arizona League and Hillsboro, though he did get knocked around in the Northwest League playoffs. Walston is a 6'5" left hander, words which can make scouts drool, and he's exceptionally projectable. He currently sits anywhere from the high 80's to the low 90's depending on how fresh he is, and his best secondary is a curveball that can look like a true plus pitch when it's at its best. Walston also adds a slider and a changeup, but in all, he has a long way to go to reach his tremendous ceiling. First off, he needs to hit the weight room and add the stamina to pitch deep into games, and then he needs to get more consistent with his whole arsenal. He won't even turn 19 until June, so he's very young and has a ton of time, so you'd expect that the D-Backs will take it slow with him, but the end product could be a true ace three to five years down the line if this lottery ticket works out.
- Keep an eye on: Jeremy Beasley, Jeff Bain, Kenny Hernandez, Jackson Goddard, Tyler Holton, Michel Gelabert, Avery Short
Relief Pitching
- Taylor Widener (2020 Age: 25): Originally a Yankees' 12th rounder out of South Carolina in 2016, Widener came over in the three team Steven Souza/Brandon Drury deal of 2018 and had a great first season in the organization (2.75 ERA, 176/43 K/BB), but he struggled intensely in 2019 and finished with an 8.10 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 innings at AAA Reno. Reno is one of the most hitter friendly contexts in minor league baseball, so an 8.10 ERA there might be a 6.10 ERA elsewhere, but it's still not what you want to see and he allowed 23 home runs in 23 starts. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, though neither stand out as plus and he more relies on deception and good arm side fade on the fastball and changeup to miss bats. The stuff might be a little light to work in the rotation, especially with the depth the Diamondbacks have there, but it could play up in the bullpen, where he does have experience dating back to his time at South Carolina. As a reliever, he could be ready out of spring training.
- Ryne Nelson (2020 Age: 22): Nelson was a second round pick out of Oregon in 2019, though as a native of Henderson, Nevada, he's a semi-hometown guy for the D-Backs. In his pro debut, he posted a 2.89 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 26/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings at short season Hillsboro, then added six dominant innings over a pair of Northwest League playoff appearances. Arizona may try him as a starter, as he was in the Ducks rotation for a time, but his future most likely lies in the bullpen unless they can clean him up considerably. He can sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball out of the bullpen, and his hard slider plays better in short stints. However, his command is well below average, and he'd have to make significant strides with it in order to remain a starter. He'll still need to get a bit sharper with his command even as a reliever, because while his slider is tough to square up, it's not a true out pitch at this point. If he can locate his pitches a bit better in the future, he does have the upside of an impact relief arm who could hit 100 down the road.
- Keep an eye on: West Tunnell, Breckin Williams, Mack Lemieux, Matt Mercer, Blake Workman, Conor Grammes
Showing posts with label Blake Walston. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blake Walston. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Sunday, June 30, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks
First five rounds: Corbin Carroll (1-16), Blake Walston (1-26), Brennan Malone (1-33), Drey Jameson (1-34), Ryne Nelson (2-56), Tommy Henry (CBB-74), Dominic Fletcher (CBB-75), Tristin English (3-93), Glenallen Hill Jr. (4-122), Conor Grammes (5-152)
Also notable: Avery Short (12-362), Jerrion Ealy (31-932)
The Diamondbacks had an extra first round pick after failing to sign last year's first rounder Matt McLain, picked up a pair of compensation picks for losing Patrick Corbin to the Nationals and A.J. Pollock to the Dodgers, earned a competitive balance pick through the lottery, and obtained an additional competitive balance pick in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. In all, that gave Arizona four of the first 34 picks and eight of the first 93, enabling them to play around with their massive bonus pool and bring on a ton of talent. They went underslot with five of those picks (potentially six if Tommy Henry signs underslot) and used their massive savings to reel in overslot picks in Glenallen Hill Jr. and Avery Short later in the draft, and they may not be done as they still have a few hundred thousand dollars left in that bonus pool. Overall, this massive influx of talent featured five consecutive pitchers after first rounder Corbin Carroll, a personal favorite of mine, there were so many picks that I didn't even get a chance to write about guys like seventh rounder Spencer Brickhouse, a power hitter from East Carolina, or 24th rounder Dylan Eskew, a high-upside high schooler from Tampa.
1-16: OF Corbin Carroll (Lakeside HS [WA], my rank: 8)
With their first of eight million or so picks this year, the Diamondbacks started it off strong and took a player I really like. Carroll is an outfielder from Seattle whose short stature, skinny frame, and lack of present power are no problem when you consider the rest of the package. Listed at 5'10" and 165 pounds, Carroll has exceptional feel for the barrel, so much so that he can actually hit for close to average power if he wants to and he still won't have to worry about too much swing and miss. He also uses his speed and instincts to play very good defense in center field, and that speed plays up on the bases too. On top of it all, he's reported to have a fantastic work ethic, and he should move quicker than most high school players. Carroll's ultimate projection is that of a high on-base, high stolen base, leadoff type of hitter who can also hit 10-15 home runs per season, maybe more if he fills out a little bit. He signed away from UCLA at slot for $3.75 million and is slashing .316/.316/.368 with a stolen base and six strikeouts over his first five games in the complex-level Arizona League.
1-26: LHP Blake Walston (New Hanover HS [NC], my rank: 42)
The Diamondbacks went underslot here, and perhaps no underslot signing at this point in the draft could have given them as much upside as Blake Walston. The Wilmington, North Carolina left hander is 6'4" and has an ideal pitchers' frame, albeit without much man strength on it yet. He sits in the low 90's when he's at his best, but his velocity fluctuates a lot and he is usually down somewhere in the 80's later in games. His curveball can also be a true plus pitch at its best, and even when it loses power and gets loopy, it still has good shape and he should have no trouble refining it into a consistent out pitch. Walston also adds a slider and a changeup to round out his four pitch arsenal, and his command is fairly advanced for his age, especially given how inconsistent his stuff can be. Walston will need some work on his mechanics, but ultimately getting on a pro conditioning program will hopefully help him get that fastball velocity up and get more power on his breaking balls, so he has ace upside. As a bonus, Walston is fairly young for the class and only turned 18 at the end of June. He signed for $2.45 million, which was $200,000 below slot and which kept him from attending NC State.
1-33: RHP Brennan Malone (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 19)
After going underslot with Walston, I thought it would take an overslot deal to sign Malone away from a UNC commitment here, but they surprisingly got him at slot. Malone moved from Charlotte, North Carolina between his junior and senior seasons to attend the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, and it helped him get more consistent with his stuff. The 6'3" righty now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets good movement on it, and he adds a pair of breaking balls and a changeup. His curveball was his out pitch before this season and it can look plus at its best but often flattens out, but this year he added a slider which has become his new out pitch and which is much more consistent. His command has also improved from shaky to average, and his athleticism has helped him along the way. Malone, like Walston, has a high ceiling as a frontline starter, but he has less work to do to get there as he can already hold his velocity through games. However, I think Walston's ceiling is just a bit higher. Malone signed at slot for $2.2 million.
1-34: RHP Drey Jameson (Ball State, my rank: 50)
With their first college pick, the Diamondbacks went underslot and selected a high upside, high risk pitcher in Drey Jameson. The six foot right hander who grew up outside of Indianapolis is a draft-eligible sophomore, but he's very old for the class and would actually be on the older side for a college junior because he turns 22 in August. Jameson improved on his up and down freshman season to post a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings this year. Not only is Jameson fairly short for a pitcher at six feet tall, he also weighs in at just 165 pounds and likely won't add too much more. Still, he has a live arm that produces a mid 90's fastball and a pair of good breaking balls, and he has the arm strength to maintain his stuff and velocity deep into games. That stuff enabled him to miss a ton of bats in the relatively weak Mid-America Conference, and he should continue to miss bats in pro ball. However, his command tends to come and go, and with a high effort delivery at his size, there are reliever questions. Optimists can look at the arm strength and stuff and project him as a potential mid-rotation starter, but pessimists would argue that his size won't hold up when he moves from the every-seventh-day college schedule to the every-fifth-day pro schedule, forcing him to the bullpen. Still, he could be nasty as a reliever. Jameson signed for $1.4 million, which was $750,000 below slot.
2-56: RHP Ryne Nelson (Oregon, my rank: 72)
Another college pitcher with a premium fastball, another underslot signing. Nelson was a two-way player for Oregon as a freshman and a sophomore, but he became a pitcher-only in the Cape Cod League (2.65 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 17 IP) and continued with that as a junior this year in Eugene. After that strong showing on the Cape, it was an up and down year for the Las Vegas-area native as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen and finished with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings. Nelson's biggest strength is his mid to upper 90's fastball, which he was able to blow past Pac-12 hitters at a frightening rate this year, and he also adds a good slider that can get its share of swings and misses. However, he lacks much of a changeup and his command is very mediocre this year, so he ended up getting hit harder when he fell behind in the count or when he left balls over the plate. On one hand, he's fairly new to pitching and didn't focus exclusively on it until this year, and his athleticism could help him transition to the rotation and become successful there as he gets more refined. On the other, he's a college reliever who didn't get great results this year, and that's a tough hole to climb out of. His lack of command likely pushes him to the bullpen long term, but we'll see how he progresses. The 6'3" righty signed for $1.1 million, which was $180,000 below slot.
CBB-74: LHP Tommy Henry (Michigan, my rank: 75)
One of the centerpieces of Michigan's surprise run to the College World Series Finals, Tommy Henry has a live arm but has been up and down this spring. After posting a 3.09 ERA and a 77/26 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he came back this year with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings for the Wolverines, a heavy workload which will probably limit his pro innings this year once he signs. Henry is a 6'3" lefty from just outside Kalamazoo, Michigan, and he has looked very good at his best. He tossed 23 shutout innings with a 34/2 strikeout to walk ratio over his first three starts against SUNY Binghamton, The Citadel, and Cal State Northridge, then stepped up against a fearsome UCLA lineup in his next start and struck out ten over six innings. However, he put up an unsightly 6.50 ERA and a 42/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings in conference play, making it look like he just got lucky in that UCLA start. Then he confused us again by averaging eight innings per start in the NCAA Tournament and striking out 31 to just three walks over 31.2 innings (though three of those four starts came after the draft). When he's on, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and an advanced changeup with good command, but during that run through the Big 10 as well as previously in his career, he sat closer to 90, his stuff flattened out a bit, and his command regressed from above average to average. Pre-draft, I wasn't sold on Henry because I didn't like the idea of drafting someone on Day One just due to a month of good pitching early in the season, but his very good post-draft performance has me more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and I might have ranked him ten spots higher if I re-did them today. Henry projects as a back-end starter if he can get to where he has been at his best more consistently, though he could be a #3 if he not only gets there but takes a step forward. However, pitching like he did in the middle of the season will get him bumped to the bullpen, and his early birthday (he turns 22 in July) doesn't help him. He hasn't signed because his season ended less than a week ago, and slot value is $844,200.
CBB-75: OF Dominic Fletcher (Arkansas, my rank: 102)
Fletcher, like Henry, is a bit of an enigma, but for different reasons. The younger brother of Angels infielder David Fletcher, Dominic has performed well at Arkansas despite lacking standout tools. Fletcher had his best year in 2019, when he slashed .313/.385/.528 with eleven home runs and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio, and that included a .305/.346/.500 run through SEC play. The Southern California native is only 5'9" and he doesn't show much raw power, but he got to what little power he has frequently at Arkansas and against high level pitching. However, for a 5'9" kid who needs to find the barrel consistently to make an impact, his plate discipline isn't great and that was especially apparent in SEC play, where he struck out 30 times (22.1%) to just six walks. If he wants his approach to work in pro ball, he'll need to get more selective and find pitches he can drive. Defensively, it's a similar story as Fletcher lacks speed but uses his instincts to get to a lot of fly balls in the outfield. He could be playable in center field, but left field would be the better overall fit and he could excel there. Overall, he projects as a fourth outfielder with some power and a decent on-base percentage. He signed for $700,000, which was $131,100 below slot, and he is slashing .300/.364/.400 with a double and a walk over his first three games at Class A Kane County.
3-93: 1B Tristin English (Georgia Tech, unranked)
A two-way player at Georgia Tech, English drew some interest as a right handed reliever as he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 20/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings as the Yellow Jackets' closer this year, doing so with a low 90's fastball and a couple of solid breaking balls. However, his future lies as a hitter after he slashed .346/.427/.710 with 18 home runs and a 30/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, also leading the ACC by a wide margin with 21 hit by pitches (Florida State's Matheu Nelson was second with 17). The Central Georgia native also slashed .300/.366/.510 with five home runs and a 15/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games on the Cape, and with his 6'3" frame, it's easy to see his power playing up at the next level. He'll need to get a little more patient at the plate to start drawing some more walks, but he has 20-25 home run upside with decent on-base percentages if he can transition to pro ball well. Working against him is his age, as he's a college senior who already turned 22 in May, but seniors have succeeded before. Defensively, he's playable in either corner outfield spot and has done a good job at first base, so while the pressure will still be on his bat, he at least provides some moderate value in the field. He signed for $500,000, which was $127,900 below slot, and he picked up one single in four at bats in his first game with short-season Hillsboro.
4-122: SS Glenallen Hill Jr. (Santa Cruz HS [CA], my rank: 127)
After five straight college picks, the Diamondbacks went back to the high school side and took Glenallen Hill Jr., son of 13 year major leaguer Glenallen Hill who was mostly a fourth outfielder in the 1990's. Junior played his high school ball out in Santa Cruz, which I imagine isn't the worst place to grow up, and he shows a very interesting skills package despite only standing 5'9", which makes him the fourth "little guy" that the Diamondbacks drafted. The switch hitter has plenty of bat speed in both of his swings and shows good loft from the right side, helping him hit for average power despite his size. He doesn't make the most consistent contact, and that will definitely be something to work on in pro ball, but finding the barrel a little bit more will help him become a true threat at the plate. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but will likely have to move to center field, where he can use his plus speed to become an above average defender once he gets more reps. Hill is raw and needs a lot of work, but he has high upside if he can make the necessary adjustments and become a faster Willie Calhoun. He signed for $850,000, which was $381,000 above slot, and he's slashing .185/.214/.370 with a home run, three stolen bases, and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over his first seven games with Corbin Carroll in the Arizona League.
5-152: RHP Conor Grammes (Xavier, unranked)
Grammes, like English, was a two way player in college with draft aspirations both ways, but he ended up being selected as a pitcher. He came to Xavier without much fanfare, as he managed to walk on to the team after emailing the coach. I played against him in high school and while he was a good shortstop at McLean in Northern Virginia, he didn't stand out on the field as much as you would expect from a future fifth rounder, so the progress he has made with the Musketeers is remarkable. Grammes put up fantastic numbers over three years as a hitter for Xavier, slashing .334/.396/.513 with 25 home runs in 168 games. He also posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 79/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings as a starting pitcher this year, and that's what he'll be doing in the Arizona farm system. Grammes sat in the mid 90's as a starter but when he transitions to relief in pro ball, he should be able to sit in the upper 90's with his big fastball. However, given that he is new to pitching and has been a two-way player as well, his fastball is just about his only weapon at this point. His slider is inconsistent and can flatten out, and his command is well below average because he throws from a high-effort delivery. Now that he is giving up hitting, focusing on his slider and command will be his priorities, and he could turn himself into a set-up man at the big league level. He signed for $300,000, which was $50,300 below slot.
12-362: LHP Avery Short (Southport HS [IN], my rank: 111)
The D-Backs built up a bunch of savings with their early picks, and while some of that went to signing Glenallen Hill Jr. away from Arizona State, and even bigger chunk went to grabbing Indianapolis-area high schooler Avery Short in the twelfth round. Short is only 18, but he looks like a college pitcher because his pitchability is so advanced. He sits in the high 80's with his fringy fastball and can occasionally bump it into the low 90's, but he adds a good curveball and slider that can generate swings and misses already in addition to a changeup. He also has very advanced command for his age and mixes his pitches effectively, so he should be able to move more quickly than the typical high school arm. The 6'2" lefty could add some velocity once he gets on a pro conditioning program, and just a little more velocity is all he needs if he wants to be a back-end starter in the majors, if not more, so long as he maintains his command. If Short can improve not just his velocity but his secondary pitches as well, he could be a mid-rotation starter. It took $922,500 to sign him away from Louisville, which counts for $797,500 against Arizona's bonus pool.
31-932: OF Jerrion Ealy (Jackson Prep HS [MS], my rank: 65)
Signability was a concern with Ealy, and evidently his asking price was too high for teams to match and he'll end up at Ole Miss. The Diamondbacks actually have a few hundred thousand left in their bonus pool and could offer him upwards of $500,000, but even that seems a little light to draw him away from school and that money will probably go elsewhere, such as to 16th rounder Brock Jones, a lefty with a nice curveball or to 24th rounder Dylan Eskew, a live armed righty with some upside who ranked 119th on my list. Ealy is arguably the best athlete in the class as he is also a five star running back recruit and will play both sports at Ole Miss. He's following the trend of short draftees and stands just 5'10", but he's built like a tank and packs a lot of strength into his shorter frame. The Carthage, Mississippi native who attended high school an hour away in Jackson had first round hopes coming into the season, but a poor senior season dropped his stock to more of a second round talent. He hits for power but his swing mechanics are very raw and need a lot of work, which caused him to perform poorly this spring against mediocre Mississippi high school competition. His top of the scale athleticism plays very well in center field, where he figures to be a plus defender with a strong arm, as well as on the bases, where he should use his speed to steal plenty of bases. Getting those swing mechanics ironed out will be the biggest challenge for Ealy, but if he can do it, he could be a five tool player at the major league level. We'll just have to wait a few years to let him play for the Rebels.
Also notable: Avery Short (12-362), Jerrion Ealy (31-932)
The Diamondbacks had an extra first round pick after failing to sign last year's first rounder Matt McLain, picked up a pair of compensation picks for losing Patrick Corbin to the Nationals and A.J. Pollock to the Dodgers, earned a competitive balance pick through the lottery, and obtained an additional competitive balance pick in the trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis. In all, that gave Arizona four of the first 34 picks and eight of the first 93, enabling them to play around with their massive bonus pool and bring on a ton of talent. They went underslot with five of those picks (potentially six if Tommy Henry signs underslot) and used their massive savings to reel in overslot picks in Glenallen Hill Jr. and Avery Short later in the draft, and they may not be done as they still have a few hundred thousand dollars left in that bonus pool. Overall, this massive influx of talent featured five consecutive pitchers after first rounder Corbin Carroll, a personal favorite of mine, there were so many picks that I didn't even get a chance to write about guys like seventh rounder Spencer Brickhouse, a power hitter from East Carolina, or 24th rounder Dylan Eskew, a high-upside high schooler from Tampa.
1-16: OF Corbin Carroll (Lakeside HS [WA], my rank: 8)
With their first of eight million or so picks this year, the Diamondbacks started it off strong and took a player I really like. Carroll is an outfielder from Seattle whose short stature, skinny frame, and lack of present power are no problem when you consider the rest of the package. Listed at 5'10" and 165 pounds, Carroll has exceptional feel for the barrel, so much so that he can actually hit for close to average power if he wants to and he still won't have to worry about too much swing and miss. He also uses his speed and instincts to play very good defense in center field, and that speed plays up on the bases too. On top of it all, he's reported to have a fantastic work ethic, and he should move quicker than most high school players. Carroll's ultimate projection is that of a high on-base, high stolen base, leadoff type of hitter who can also hit 10-15 home runs per season, maybe more if he fills out a little bit. He signed away from UCLA at slot for $3.75 million and is slashing .316/.316/.368 with a stolen base and six strikeouts over his first five games in the complex-level Arizona League.
1-26: LHP Blake Walston (New Hanover HS [NC], my rank: 42)
The Diamondbacks went underslot here, and perhaps no underslot signing at this point in the draft could have given them as much upside as Blake Walston. The Wilmington, North Carolina left hander is 6'4" and has an ideal pitchers' frame, albeit without much man strength on it yet. He sits in the low 90's when he's at his best, but his velocity fluctuates a lot and he is usually down somewhere in the 80's later in games. His curveball can also be a true plus pitch at its best, and even when it loses power and gets loopy, it still has good shape and he should have no trouble refining it into a consistent out pitch. Walston also adds a slider and a changeup to round out his four pitch arsenal, and his command is fairly advanced for his age, especially given how inconsistent his stuff can be. Walston will need some work on his mechanics, but ultimately getting on a pro conditioning program will hopefully help him get that fastball velocity up and get more power on his breaking balls, so he has ace upside. As a bonus, Walston is fairly young for the class and only turned 18 at the end of June. He signed for $2.45 million, which was $200,000 below slot and which kept him from attending NC State.
1-33: RHP Brennan Malone (IMG Academy [FL], my rank: 19)
After going underslot with Walston, I thought it would take an overslot deal to sign Malone away from a UNC commitment here, but they surprisingly got him at slot. Malone moved from Charlotte, North Carolina between his junior and senior seasons to attend the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida, and it helped him get more consistent with his stuff. The 6'3" righty now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets good movement on it, and he adds a pair of breaking balls and a changeup. His curveball was his out pitch before this season and it can look plus at its best but often flattens out, but this year he added a slider which has become his new out pitch and which is much more consistent. His command has also improved from shaky to average, and his athleticism has helped him along the way. Malone, like Walston, has a high ceiling as a frontline starter, but he has less work to do to get there as he can already hold his velocity through games. However, I think Walston's ceiling is just a bit higher. Malone signed at slot for $2.2 million.
1-34: RHP Drey Jameson (Ball State, my rank: 50)
With their first college pick, the Diamondbacks went underslot and selected a high upside, high risk pitcher in Drey Jameson. The six foot right hander who grew up outside of Indianapolis is a draft-eligible sophomore, but he's very old for the class and would actually be on the older side for a college junior because he turns 22 in August. Jameson improved on his up and down freshman season to post a 3.24 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 146/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings this year. Not only is Jameson fairly short for a pitcher at six feet tall, he also weighs in at just 165 pounds and likely won't add too much more. Still, he has a live arm that produces a mid 90's fastball and a pair of good breaking balls, and he has the arm strength to maintain his stuff and velocity deep into games. That stuff enabled him to miss a ton of bats in the relatively weak Mid-America Conference, and he should continue to miss bats in pro ball. However, his command tends to come and go, and with a high effort delivery at his size, there are reliever questions. Optimists can look at the arm strength and stuff and project him as a potential mid-rotation starter, but pessimists would argue that his size won't hold up when he moves from the every-seventh-day college schedule to the every-fifth-day pro schedule, forcing him to the bullpen. Still, he could be nasty as a reliever. Jameson signed for $1.4 million, which was $750,000 below slot.
2-56: RHP Ryne Nelson (Oregon, my rank: 72)
Another college pitcher with a premium fastball, another underslot signing. Nelson was a two-way player for Oregon as a freshman and a sophomore, but he became a pitcher-only in the Cape Cod League (2.65 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 17 IP) and continued with that as a junior this year in Eugene. After that strong showing on the Cape, it was an up and down year for the Las Vegas-area native as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen and finished with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 104/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings. Nelson's biggest strength is his mid to upper 90's fastball, which he was able to blow past Pac-12 hitters at a frightening rate this year, and he also adds a good slider that can get its share of swings and misses. However, he lacks much of a changeup and his command is very mediocre this year, so he ended up getting hit harder when he fell behind in the count or when he left balls over the plate. On one hand, he's fairly new to pitching and didn't focus exclusively on it until this year, and his athleticism could help him transition to the rotation and become successful there as he gets more refined. On the other, he's a college reliever who didn't get great results this year, and that's a tough hole to climb out of. His lack of command likely pushes him to the bullpen long term, but we'll see how he progresses. The 6'3" righty signed for $1.1 million, which was $180,000 below slot.
CBB-74: LHP Tommy Henry (Michigan, my rank: 75)
One of the centerpieces of Michigan's surprise run to the College World Series Finals, Tommy Henry has a live arm but has been up and down this spring. After posting a 3.09 ERA and a 77/26 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, he came back this year with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 innings for the Wolverines, a heavy workload which will probably limit his pro innings this year once he signs. Henry is a 6'3" lefty from just outside Kalamazoo, Michigan, and he has looked very good at his best. He tossed 23 shutout innings with a 34/2 strikeout to walk ratio over his first three starts against SUNY Binghamton, The Citadel, and Cal State Northridge, then stepped up against a fearsome UCLA lineup in his next start and struck out ten over six innings. However, he put up an unsightly 6.50 ERA and a 42/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings in conference play, making it look like he just got lucky in that UCLA start. Then he confused us again by averaging eight innings per start in the NCAA Tournament and striking out 31 to just three walks over 31.2 innings (though three of those four starts came after the draft). When he's on, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider and an advanced changeup with good command, but during that run through the Big 10 as well as previously in his career, he sat closer to 90, his stuff flattened out a bit, and his command regressed from above average to average. Pre-draft, I wasn't sold on Henry because I didn't like the idea of drafting someone on Day One just due to a month of good pitching early in the season, but his very good post-draft performance has me more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and I might have ranked him ten spots higher if I re-did them today. Henry projects as a back-end starter if he can get to where he has been at his best more consistently, though he could be a #3 if he not only gets there but takes a step forward. However, pitching like he did in the middle of the season will get him bumped to the bullpen, and his early birthday (he turns 22 in July) doesn't help him. He hasn't signed because his season ended less than a week ago, and slot value is $844,200.
CBB-75: OF Dominic Fletcher (Arkansas, my rank: 102)
Fletcher, like Henry, is a bit of an enigma, but for different reasons. The younger brother of Angels infielder David Fletcher, Dominic has performed well at Arkansas despite lacking standout tools. Fletcher had his best year in 2019, when he slashed .313/.385/.528 with eleven home runs and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio, and that included a .305/.346/.500 run through SEC play. The Southern California native is only 5'9" and he doesn't show much raw power, but he got to what little power he has frequently at Arkansas and against high level pitching. However, for a 5'9" kid who needs to find the barrel consistently to make an impact, his plate discipline isn't great and that was especially apparent in SEC play, where he struck out 30 times (22.1%) to just six walks. If he wants his approach to work in pro ball, he'll need to get more selective and find pitches he can drive. Defensively, it's a similar story as Fletcher lacks speed but uses his instincts to get to a lot of fly balls in the outfield. He could be playable in center field, but left field would be the better overall fit and he could excel there. Overall, he projects as a fourth outfielder with some power and a decent on-base percentage. He signed for $700,000, which was $131,100 below slot, and he is slashing .300/.364/.400 with a double and a walk over his first three games at Class A Kane County.
3-93: 1B Tristin English (Georgia Tech, unranked)
A two-way player at Georgia Tech, English drew some interest as a right handed reliever as he posted a 3.70 ERA and a 20/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings as the Yellow Jackets' closer this year, doing so with a low 90's fastball and a couple of solid breaking balls. However, his future lies as a hitter after he slashed .346/.427/.710 with 18 home runs and a 30/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, also leading the ACC by a wide margin with 21 hit by pitches (Florida State's Matheu Nelson was second with 17). The Central Georgia native also slashed .300/.366/.510 with five home runs and a 15/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games on the Cape, and with his 6'3" frame, it's easy to see his power playing up at the next level. He'll need to get a little more patient at the plate to start drawing some more walks, but he has 20-25 home run upside with decent on-base percentages if he can transition to pro ball well. Working against him is his age, as he's a college senior who already turned 22 in May, but seniors have succeeded before. Defensively, he's playable in either corner outfield spot and has done a good job at first base, so while the pressure will still be on his bat, he at least provides some moderate value in the field. He signed for $500,000, which was $127,900 below slot, and he picked up one single in four at bats in his first game with short-season Hillsboro.
4-122: SS Glenallen Hill Jr. (Santa Cruz HS [CA], my rank: 127)
After five straight college picks, the Diamondbacks went back to the high school side and took Glenallen Hill Jr., son of 13 year major leaguer Glenallen Hill who was mostly a fourth outfielder in the 1990's. Junior played his high school ball out in Santa Cruz, which I imagine isn't the worst place to grow up, and he shows a very interesting skills package despite only standing 5'9", which makes him the fourth "little guy" that the Diamondbacks drafted. The switch hitter has plenty of bat speed in both of his swings and shows good loft from the right side, helping him hit for average power despite his size. He doesn't make the most consistent contact, and that will definitely be something to work on in pro ball, but finding the barrel a little bit more will help him become a true threat at the plate. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but will likely have to move to center field, where he can use his plus speed to become an above average defender once he gets more reps. Hill is raw and needs a lot of work, but he has high upside if he can make the necessary adjustments and become a faster Willie Calhoun. He signed for $850,000, which was $381,000 above slot, and he's slashing .185/.214/.370 with a home run, three stolen bases, and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over his first seven games with Corbin Carroll in the Arizona League.
5-152: RHP Conor Grammes (Xavier, unranked)
Grammes, like English, was a two way player in college with draft aspirations both ways, but he ended up being selected as a pitcher. He came to Xavier without much fanfare, as he managed to walk on to the team after emailing the coach. I played against him in high school and while he was a good shortstop at McLean in Northern Virginia, he didn't stand out on the field as much as you would expect from a future fifth rounder, so the progress he has made with the Musketeers is remarkable. Grammes put up fantastic numbers over three years as a hitter for Xavier, slashing .334/.396/.513 with 25 home runs in 168 games. He also posted a 3.95 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 79/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings as a starting pitcher this year, and that's what he'll be doing in the Arizona farm system. Grammes sat in the mid 90's as a starter but when he transitions to relief in pro ball, he should be able to sit in the upper 90's with his big fastball. However, given that he is new to pitching and has been a two-way player as well, his fastball is just about his only weapon at this point. His slider is inconsistent and can flatten out, and his command is well below average because he throws from a high-effort delivery. Now that he is giving up hitting, focusing on his slider and command will be his priorities, and he could turn himself into a set-up man at the big league level. He signed for $300,000, which was $50,300 below slot.
12-362: LHP Avery Short (Southport HS [IN], my rank: 111)
The D-Backs built up a bunch of savings with their early picks, and while some of that went to signing Glenallen Hill Jr. away from Arizona State, and even bigger chunk went to grabbing Indianapolis-area high schooler Avery Short in the twelfth round. Short is only 18, but he looks like a college pitcher because his pitchability is so advanced. He sits in the high 80's with his fringy fastball and can occasionally bump it into the low 90's, but he adds a good curveball and slider that can generate swings and misses already in addition to a changeup. He also has very advanced command for his age and mixes his pitches effectively, so he should be able to move more quickly than the typical high school arm. The 6'2" lefty could add some velocity once he gets on a pro conditioning program, and just a little more velocity is all he needs if he wants to be a back-end starter in the majors, if not more, so long as he maintains his command. If Short can improve not just his velocity but his secondary pitches as well, he could be a mid-rotation starter. It took $922,500 to sign him away from Louisville, which counts for $797,500 against Arizona's bonus pool.
31-932: OF Jerrion Ealy (Jackson Prep HS [MS], my rank: 65)
Signability was a concern with Ealy, and evidently his asking price was too high for teams to match and he'll end up at Ole Miss. The Diamondbacks actually have a few hundred thousand left in their bonus pool and could offer him upwards of $500,000, but even that seems a little light to draw him away from school and that money will probably go elsewhere, such as to 16th rounder Brock Jones, a lefty with a nice curveball or to 24th rounder Dylan Eskew, a live armed righty with some upside who ranked 119th on my list. Ealy is arguably the best athlete in the class as he is also a five star running back recruit and will play both sports at Ole Miss. He's following the trend of short draftees and stands just 5'10", but he's built like a tank and packs a lot of strength into his shorter frame. The Carthage, Mississippi native who attended high school an hour away in Jackson had first round hopes coming into the season, but a poor senior season dropped his stock to more of a second round talent. He hits for power but his swing mechanics are very raw and need a lot of work, which caused him to perform poorly this spring against mediocre Mississippi high school competition. His top of the scale athleticism plays very well in center field, where he figures to be a plus defender with a strong arm, as well as on the bases, where he should use his speed to steal plenty of bases. Getting those swing mechanics ironed out will be the biggest challenge for Ealy, but if he can do it, he could be a five tool player at the major league level. We'll just have to wait a few years to let him play for the Rebels.
Monday, June 3, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Left Handed Pitchers
There aren't as many left handers as right handers, so I combined the list here. As with the right handers, none of these guys figure to go in the top five picks, and it's very possible, even likely, that only two get drafted in the first round. There is especially a dearth of high schoolers here, with only two or three expected to go on day one and all coming with signability questions, though the college left handers have much more depth.
Tier I: Nick Lodolo, Zack Thompson
The first tier consists of two major conference starters, with no high schoolers cracking it. Nick Lodolo took a huge step forward with TCU this year, posting a 2.36 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 131/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings before the draft. After posting ERA's of 4.35 and 4.32 over his first two seasons in Fort Worth, respectively, Lodolo has gotten more consistent with his mechanics and his command this year. He's 6'6" and throws in the low 90's, adding a solid curve and changeup, but he's got the best of both worlds in that he's a proven major conference starter as well as a tall lefty with projection remaining. He could be a #2 starter at best but looks more like a #3 and will likely go in the top ten picks, with the Reds at #7 looking like the best bet. Over at Kentucky, Zack Thompson put an inconsistent 2018 behind him by posting a 2.40 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 130/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 innings this year. He's 6'3" and has been creeping up lists all spring long, using his low 90's fastball and full set of secondaries to carve up SEC hitters. His command has been more consistent this spring as well, though it still plays closer to average, and he overall looks like a #3 or solid #4 starter. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, likely in the top half.
Tier II: Hunter Barco, Blake Walston, Ethan Small
These three pitchers couldn't be more different. Hunter Barco was an early top prospect in this class with an exceptional showing on the summer showcase circuit back in 2017, but he was more inconsistent in 2018 before righting the ship a bit in Spring 2019. He's a 6'4" high schooler from Jacksonville who throws a from a lower arm slot, showing a low 90's fastball, a slider that flashes plus when he doesn't come around it, and a good splitter. His mechanics have been all over the place and dictate his success, so getting him to use a consistent arm slot will be the first thing on his drafting team's list. He figures to go at the end of the first round or in the comp round based on talent, but he'll be a tough sign away from Florida. Blake Walston is an uber-projectable arm out of Wilmington, North Carolina, standing 6'4" with plenty of room to add weight to his athletic frame. He can run his fastball into the low 90's but fades during his starts and can end up in the high 80's at times, also showing an inconsistent curve with good shape but without power at this point. He also has a slider and a changeup, and his command has been pretty good for a raw, projectable high school arm. He'll be a tough sign away from NC State and he needs a lot of work, but he has high upside and could be an ace when all is said and done. He looks like a comp or second rounder, but signability might affect that. Ethan Small is a 22 year old redshirt junior at Mississippi State, but he has been the best pitcher in college baseball this season. In 16 starts before the draft, Small posted a 1.88 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 160/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings against some of the top competition in the nation. His fastball only sits around 90 and his secondary stuff is closer to average, but his command and feel for pitching are so good that even the SEC's best hitters can't figure him out. There is deception in his delivery and he varies his timing, and if anybody can make a 90 MPH fastball work in pro ball, it will be Small, who figures to go in the second round and has #4 or #5 starter projection.
Tier III: Spencer Jones, Tommy Henry, Erik Miller, T.J. Sikkema, Brandon Williamson, Graeme Stinson, Matt Cronin
This is where the deep group of college lefties gets going. We'll start with Southern California high schooler Spencer Jones, a two-way player who looked to be a first rounder before an elbow injury cost him most of his senior season. He shows power at the plate but on the mound, the 6'7" lefty shows a low 90's fastball and a good curveball that should be solid building blocks. He's much more about projectability than present stuff, but he has some of the highest upside in the class, so it's hard to peg his draft position. On the college side, Michigan's Tommy Henry has been inconsistent this spring but shows fringe first round stuff at his best. This year, he had a 3.61 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 111/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 99.2 innings, showing really well early in the season but seeing his stuff flatten out at times later on. He's 6'3" and sits in the low 90's with a slider and changeup that can look plus at their best, though as I said before, they flattened out at times later in the season, and his command has played up well this year. He looks like a mid rotation starter at times but at others, his stuff looks fringy in terms of being a major league starter. He looks like a second rounder. Stanford's Erik Miller has also been inconsistent, posting a 3.15 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 97/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings this season. He's 6'5" and shows great stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and adding a good slider that generates swings and misses, but he loses his mechanics at times and that leads to bouts of wildness. He struggled in the Cape Cod League, but a team that thinks it can clean him up could help him reach his ceiling as a mid rotation starter. He's a second or third rounder. Missouri's T.J. Sikkema has not been inconsistent, putting up a 1.32 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 101/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, rivaling Small at times as the best pitcher in the SEC. He's just six feet tall but sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a good slider that also helped him put up a 1.72 ERA in the Cape Cod League. He's extremely competitive on the mound, which helps his stuff play up, his command is solid, and he won't be 21 until July, so he has a chance to outplay his #5 starter projection. He looks like a second rounder. Behind Lodolo in the TCU rotation, Brandon Williamson has been inconsistent but shows big stuff at times. He's 6'5" and posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and an 89/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.1 innings. He shows a low to mid 90's fastball and a good slider from a smooth delivery, but he's been oddly inconsistent with both the level of his stuff and his command. A 6'5" lefty with velocity and an easy delivery is a scout's dream, but he's been inconsistent enough that he may be forced to the bullpen and may last until the third round. He has a high ceiling if he can put it all together. Duke's Graeme Stinson had a chance to go in the top ten picks with a good run through the ACC, but instead, it was a disaster. Stinson's transition to the rotation lasted just five starts before a hamstring injury, in which he posted a 4.58 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.2 innings. He's 6'5" and shows premium stuff at his best, running his fastball into the mid 90's with a wipeout slider that may be the best in the class, and that helped him put together one fantastic start in the Cape Cod League (5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 12 K). However, there were durability concerns even before his hamstring injury, and now it looks like he'll be a reliever only in pro ball. Once healthy, he could move quickly in that role and he looks like a second rounder. Lastly, Arkansas's Matt Cronin is a pure reliever, having put up a 2.00 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. He's 6'2" but with a running low to mid 90's fastball and a very good slider, he'll move quickly through the minors and could be a set-up man or even a closer. However, his command is fringy, so he's more of a solid relief prospect than an elite one. He should go in the second or third round.
Others: Ben Brecht, Antoine Kelly, Mason Feole, Avery Short, Hayden Mullins
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