The Nationals pick at #5 this year, their highest selection since their back to back first overall picks in 2009 and 2010, which means virtually every player should be under consideration here. In fact, the only player I can confidently say won't reach the Nationals is Atlanta-area high school outfielder Druw Jones, whose combination of plus power, considerable polish, and supreme athleticism make him the top prospect in the class. Everyone else, though, should be in play. I previewed ten options back in February then again in April, and now we'll give one more update on who Nationals fans should be looking for as the July 17th draft rapidly approaches.
The Nationals have a bonus pool of just over $11 million and a slot value of just under $6.5 million for their first round pick. They can spend as much or as little as they want in that first round, but are bound by that $11 million number for all of their picks combined, lest they start incurring penalties.
All rankings from my May 4th update. Some players have moved up or down since then.
C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech. My rank: #5.
2022: 26 HR, .360/.453/.715, 11 SB, 31/30 K/BB in 59 games.
It's no secret that the Nationals have really locked in on Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada, and if the draft were today, it seems most likely that this would be the pick if he were available. Parada has some interest throughout the top five so that's no guarantee, but with plenty of other talent available (especially on the high school side), it's certainly possible and perhaps even likely. A product of the Los Angeles high school ranks, he drew second round interest back in 2020 but headed across the country to school and that has paid off, finishing his Yellow Jacket career with 35 home runs and a .340/.428/.630 slash line across 111 games. Ever since those prep days, Parada has stood out for his extremely professional at bats, showing a sublime ability to work counts, make adjustments, and use the whole field against premium pitching. The power, meanwhile, has ticked up steadily as he's matured, from above average as a high schooler to plus as a freshman to perhaps plus-plus as a sophomore, playing against strong ACC pitching and sending home runs out to all fields with ease. Between the power and the approach, there is very, very little to nitpick with the bat, especially considering he won't turn 21 until after the draft. Some may not like his unique setup, in which he holds his hands high above his head with the barrel pointed down his back as if he's trying to use it as a back scratcher, but he's always on time with his load and I have no problem with the setup. The glove isn't quite at the same level as the bat, but it is improving. He has an unremarkable arm and is not the most nimble backstop I've seen behind the plate, so a better defender like Keibert Ruiz, Drew Millas, or Israel Pineda (if the latter two's bats come along) could push him off the position. However, he is in a better place than he was two years ago as a prep and scouts love his work ethic, and I expect that the Nationals feel confident he will work hard enough to become an adequate defender. The upside here is an everyday big league catcher that can pop 30+ home runs per year while getting on base at a high clip. To put that in perspective, only two catchers (Salvador Perez and Mike Zunino) hit more than 25 home runs last year and neither had an on-base percentage above the league-wide average of .317. I do not expect that Parada would take a discount on his signing bonus given his age and interest throughout the top ten picks.
OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #3.
Druw Jones won't be available at the fifth overall pick, but the Nationals could get a shot at a player with similar or perhaps superior physical tools, but a bit less polish. Like Parada, Green has plenty of interest throughout the top five picks and there is no guarantee he is available, but if he does reach the Nationals, it's hard to see them passing on the upside. Green might have the loudest raw tools of any player in the class, showing off massive raw power, plus-plus speed, and tremendous arm strength from the outfield from a premium 6'3", 225 pound frame. And he's not raw, either. The Orlando-area native came out of the gate a bit slowly this spring and struck out more than evaluators would have like to have seen from a top of the draft prospect, but he righted the ship in a big way as the spring wore on and regained any stock that might have slipped in February and March. There is still some swing and miss, especially on fastballs up and breaking balls down and away like most young hitters, and his swing is more geared to do damage down in the zone. He'll likely always be a little streaky, but he's shown enough polish to make evaluators very comfortable that he'll be able to maximize those prodigious tools. There is true superstar upside here, perhaps more than any individual player in the Nationals' system right now. With a Miami commitment in hand and quite a few teams competing to get him into their system, Green will not come cheap and I doubt the $6.5 million slot value will be enough to put a curly W on his hat.
OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech. My rank: #7.
2022: 17 HR, .328/.411/.660, 12 SB, 41/30 K/BB in 57 games.
While Parada and Green may be gone when the fifth overall pick rolls around, Gavin Cross will most likely be there. They have shown heavy interest in Cross and could be tempted by one of the best bats in the class. Cross hits the ball as hard as anybody in the class, regularly posting elite exit velocities virtually every time he comes up to hit. He has always shown the ability to track and recognize pitches, but in the past he was prone to chasing anyways simply because he was an aggressive hitter. This year, he's done a much better job of choosing the pitches he can do damage with, and the result has been a decreased strikeout rate (20.5% to 14.6%) and an increased walk rate (7.3% to 10.7%). That makes him a much more complete hitter, and one who could move fairly quickly through the Nationals' system. With his huge power, the Bristol native profiles as a middle of the order thumper who can hit 30+ home runs per year with good on-base percentages, close to the same projection as Parada. He played right field last year but moved to center field for the Hokies this season and showed well with average range and a plus arm, so even though he'll likely move back to right in pro ball, he should be above average there. Unlike Parada and Green, Cross may not require full slot value to sign here as most of his interest is in the back half of the top ten rather than the front half.
2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA]. My rank: #2.
Though he's one of the most famous names in the class and has been talked about near the top of the draft for a long time, Termarr Johnson is one of the harder names to pinpoint as teams will likely have diverging opinions. Johnson really made a name for himself on the showcase circuit by hitting everything in sight, but in a league that values recency, he didn't have much of a chance to build on his already robust resume this spring. Elijah Green hit very well against top competition in Florida, Druw Jones did the same in the Atlanta suburbs, and Jackson Holliday set the world on fire against more average competition in northern Oklahoma, while Johnson saw average competition in the city of Atlanta. Still, the whole package is very very enticing. Standing just 5'9", he has elite bat to ball skills and the same can be said about his eye at the plate, making it very, very difficult to get anything by him. Despite the smaller frame, he generates great torque from a rotational swing and those highest on him believe he could hit for plus power on top of his .400+ on-base percentages. While he's renowned for the bat, Johnson can flash the leather a little bit with smooth actions on the infield, but he's not quite explosive enough to handle shortstop and will likely fit in at second base going forward. This is generational talent when it comes to the hit tool, so if teams at the top of the draft believe there is 25+ home run power in the tank as well, he could go well before the Nationals pick at #5. However, if those same teams opt to go with more explosive athletes like Jones, Green, and Holliday that offer a little more upside, Johnson may fit closer to the back of the top ten. He committed to Arizona State very late in the process and may fit in right around slot value for the Nationals, perhaps a few ticks above.
3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC [FL]. My rank: #14.
2022: 8 HR, .333/.419/.537, 5 SB, 33/25 K/BB in 52 games.
Cam Collier is looking like a very similar prospect to Termarr Johnson at this point, and with my most recent rankings having come out over a month ago, that #14 is inaccurate. When the draft rolls around, he'll almost certainly have a single digit number next to his name if he keeps hitting on the Cape like he has. Collier was supposed to be a high school junior this year at Mount Paran Christian High School in the Atlanta area, but he graduated two years early to enroll at Chipola Junior College in the Florida Panhandle this spring. Despite having just turned 17 in November, he slashed .333/.419/.537 against some of the best JuCo pitching in the country and struck out just 15.3% of the time, an extraordinary feat for someone so young. Professional hitter doesn't even begin to describe Collier, who recognizes all kinds of pitches and uses the entire field with ease even against pitchers two to three years his senior. While he still has plenty of time to develop physically, he already packs a lot of compact strength into his 6'2" frame and can really drive the baseball, enough so that with his barrel accuracy he should be able to provide 20+ home runs a year in the majors. Like Johnson, he's not quite an explosive athlete, but he plays a very solid third base and has a much stronger arm than his fellow Georgian, which should help him stick there. This is the highest floor you could possibly ask for from a 17 year old. If he can reach the majors by the end of 2024, he'll be the first teenager to play Major League Baseball since Elvis Luciano in 2019 and the first to do so without the aid of a Rule 5 fluke since Juan Soto in 2018. It won't be easy and I'm not saying it's likely, but it's certainly possible and he has the best odds in this class. He is getting more and more interest near the top of the draft, but because guys like Jones, Green, Holliday, and even Johnson have more upside, I'd say it's pretty likely he'll be available to the Nationals at pick #5. Committed to Louisville, he'll be draft eligible again at 20 years old and that may seem enticing if he doesn't get the bonus he wants, but Washington should still be able to grab him without going too far above slot.
SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]. My rank: #6.
When I wrote my first article in February, Jackson Holliday was more likely to be the Nationals' second round pick than their first. When I wrote my April update, Holliday got a mention but I wrote that fifth overall might be a bit of a stretch. Now in June (and in fact not long after I wrote that first article), not only is fifth overall not a stretch, but there's a sizable chance he isn't even available when the Nationals pick (the Rangers are reportedly targeting him at third overall). Matt Holliday's son has exploded this spring into one of the best high school players in the country, tacking on significant strength and immediately deploying those physical gains into game power. He was already well-regarded for his approach at the plate and ability to find the barrel, so going from below average to above average power really completed the profile. Holliday is also a strong defender in the infield and has a chance to stick at shortstop, but even if he slows down a touch, his strong arm will make him an above average third baseman. The Nationals would get a complete package in Holliday who could team up with Brady House to form a mean left side of the infield for years to come. Committed to Oklahoma State to play for both his uncle and father, he will not be cheap in this spot and will likely require the Nationals to go well above slot value.
SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly. My rank: #4.
2022: 15 HR, .357/.462/.664, 3 SB, 28/46 K/BB in 58 games.
Brooks Lee is another player who may not reach the Nationals, having received interest throughout the top of the draft and as high as the Orioles at #1. He has some of the best bat to ball skills in the entire class, striking out at just a 13.6% clip as a sophomore and then dropping it below 10% this year despite rarely getting much to hit. Lee was a very aggressive hitter early in his career, regularly chasing pitches out of the zone but still finding ways to make things happen and rarely swinging and missing. This year, he dialed it back significantly and forced pitchers to come to him, then punished them on the rare occasions that they did. The California native also possesses plus power from both sides of the plate, which is a scary thought for someone who makes as much contact as he does. He's really filled out since high school and looks like a physical specimen with plenty of compact strength in his 6'2" frame. On defense, he's a high IQ player that makes all the routine plays, though if he slows down at all as he ages, he'll be forced over to third base where his arm will still play. Despite being a college player, Lee has enough interest throughout the top of the draft that I expect he will require at least full slot value.
2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech. My rank: #8.
2022: 14 HR, .335/.481/.612, 5 SB, 42/59 K/BB in 61 games.
Jace Jung has received interest throughout the back half of the top ten, and he's every bit the hitter that Gavin Cross, Kevin Parada, and Brooks Lee are. He has absolutely demolished Big 12 pitching while at Texas Tech, slashing .336/.472/.653 with 35 home runs and far more walks (108) than strikeouts (87) in 117 games over the past two seasons. Jung has always been a very patient hitter that is happy to spit on junk out of the zone, which is mostly what he saw in college, forcing pitchers to come to him or simply taking his walks instead. Like Lee above him here, he punishes pitchers when they do come into that zone, with strong pitch recognition that allows him to put the barrel on the ball with regularity and drive it out to all fields. He records high exit velocities that translate into plus power in games, and he should be a relatively quick mover through the minors. His defense is unremarkable, with the ability to play an adequate second base or third base but nothing flashy, and he could be forced to first base if he's surrounded by better defenders. Still, the bat will profile anywhere, with the potential for 25+ home runs annually with high on-base percentages that will have him hitting in the middle of the lineup with a high degree of confidence. If he goes fifth overall, I doubt he will require the full slot value to sign and Washington could use that money later in the draft.
RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS [MI]. My rank: #19.
Pitching up in Michigan, Brock Porter came on strong later in the spring when it finally warmed up, and he'll probably see a slight bump up from that month-plus-old #19 ranking when my final rankings come out before the draft. While Dylan Lesko has long been considered the best prep pitcher in this class, his recent Tommy John surgery has clouded his draft stock and signability and allowed Porter to move into contention to be the first prep pitcher drafted. Porter throws as hard as any teenager in the country, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching back for 99-100 at his hottest. With plenty of arm strength, the Detroit-area high schooler holds that velocity deep into starts, and he gets some life on the pitch as well. Unlike most prep power pitchers, his go-to offspeed is a plus changeup with a ton of movement down in the zone, leaving high school hitters helpless and likely to do the same in pro ball. His breaking balls are a bit behind the fastball and changeup, but they've ticked up this spring with his curveball showing nice depth and his harder slider showing late snap. It's a truly enviable four pitch mix that is only trending upwards, and his clean, athletic delivery lends itself well to starting in the future even if it needs some minor touchups. While he's not pinpoint, the 6'4" righty fills up the strike zone and when you throw that hard, that's often enough. He's committed to Clemson and while high school pitchers are always expensive, I suspect that if the Nationals reach down the board a little bit for Porter, they can still get him to sign for well below slot value. He's older for a high school prospect having already turned 19, but the present stuff is so loud that that shouldn't matter too much.
Second Round Targets (pick #45, slot value $1.73 million)
Talking about the second round is just guesswork, but we know how the Nationals like to draft and we can at least highlight some options. I'll start with some money savers first in the case that Mike Rizzo goes above slot to land a player like Elijah Green or Jackson Holliday.
LHP Parker Messick, Florida State. My rank: #26.
2022: 3.38 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 144/18 K/BB in 98.2 innings.
I would love if the Nationals took Parker Messick in the second round, even if that #26 ranking has probably slipped a little since my May rankings update. Messick fits the Nationals' mold as a power conference performer with advanced pitchability and the ability to move quickly through the minors. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up because he hides the ball well from a deceptive delivery and because he can locate it. Messick flips in a couple of average breaking balls that he can land for strikes or use to generate chases, while his changeup has flashed plus and helps him rack up the strikeouts. Lastly, he's a dogged competitor on the mound that goes right after hitters with confidence.
RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. My rank: #73.
2022: 4.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 68/12 K/BB in 78.1 innings.
Here is another arm that fits the same mold as a pitchability guy with strong performance in a power conference. Jonathan Cannon does not have loud stuff, but gets it done with some of the best command in the entire class having walked fewer than four percent of his opponents this spring. The lanky, 6'6" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, having touched 97 in the past, but it's fairly straight and he needed to add a cutter this spring to get more movement and keep hitters off the fastball. He flashes an above average slider and changeup, and because he's constantly in pitcher's counts and hitting his spots, they play up. The Atlanta-area native turns 22 on Day Three of the draft and won't likely command a huge signing bonus in this spot, and he should move quickly through the minors as a #4 starter type.
RHP Ben Joyce, Tennessee. My rank: #110.
2022: 2.23 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 53/14 K/BB in 32.1 innings.
Ben Joyce isn't exactly the same type of pitcher as Messick or Cannon, but he still seems like a guy the Nationals would like given that they have not been shy about jumping on power conference relievers like Holden Powell, Reid Schaller, and Michael Kirian in the past. His #110 ranking is also not representative of where he is today, having moved up perhaps forty or so spots when I redo my rankings. If you watch college baseball, you know Ben Joyce. The 6'5" righty sits comfortably in the 101-103 range with his fastball, hitting 105 at one point this spring and completely overwhelming hitters when he's around the zone. The fastball plays up even farther because of the extension and angle he gets, making it virtually impossible to hit unless you sit on both the fastball and the location. He also shows a hard, upper 80's slider with some nice snap, but he struggles to locate it and it mostly plays up because hitters have to be ready for the fastball. The Knoxville native should move quickly as a reliever and would likely come at a discount here in the second round.
Others: RHP Connor Staine (Central Florida), C Logan Tanner (Mississippi State), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan), SS Nick Morabito (Gonzaga HS, DC), C Malcolm Moore (McClatchy HS, CA)
The above group represents some names the Nationals could look at to save some money if they went over slot on Jackson Holliday or Elijah Green, but now let's look at some splurge options if they instead go below slot on a guy like Gavin Cross, Jace Jung, or Brock Porter.
RHP Walter Ford, Pace HS [FL]. My rank: #31.
It's hard to find a better projection play than Walter Ford. He reclassified from the 2023 class so he won't turn 18 until the offseason, but already possesses a ton of athleticism and room to add good weight to his rangy 6'3" frame. Scouts love the way he moves on the mound at such a young age, and I'm sure the Nationals would love to get him into their development system and see what they can create. The fastball sits low to mid 90's for now, touching 97 with downward plane and promising to add more velocity in the future. While it's not the flat approach angle teams look for nowadays, the Nationals are more traditional and might be less concerned with that, especially considering he gets high spin rates and some hop on the pitch. Ford also spins a slider and changeup, with the former flashing above average, but both (in addition to his command) need more consistency. Ford needs a lot of development and the Nationals would have their work cut out for them, but few pitchers offer more upside in this draft. Committed to Alabama where he would be draft eligible again at just 20 years old, he'll almost certainly require a big over slot bonus in this spot.
RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS [WA]. My rank: #37.
JR Ritchie is a good picture of what Walter Ford might look like in a year and a half, because that's how much older he is. He's another athletic right hander, standing an inch shorter at 6'2", with plenty of projection remaining. His fastball sits in the same range, low to mid 90's with a peak around 97, also showing some ride and hop but mostly typical fastball movement. Ritchie's age and polish shine through with his secondaries, as he flashes plus with his slider while also showing good feel for his curveball and changeup. The Seattle-area native moves very well on the mound and throws strikes, and he also stands out as someone who really understands the game and will certainly work hard to maximize his potential. Committed to UCLA, he'll be eligible again as a sophomore in 2024 and will require more than slot value to sign here.
3B Tucker Toman, Hammond HS [SC]. My rank: #69.
Tucker Toman has seen quiet but consistent helium throughout the spring, and it could make him an over slot option for the Nationals in the second round. Toman is a switch hitter that takes whippy, powerful hacks that are very conducive to tapping game power, though for now, his left handed swing is quicker and more powerful than his right handed swing. In addition, he recognizes pitches well and gets his barrel to them with consistency, giving him the look of an all-around hitter that should transition fairly smoothly to pro ball. He's not athletic enough for shortstop but may have enough arm for third base, or he could be pushed to an outfield corner. Regardless, the Nationals would be buying the upside in his bat. Committed to LSU, he would require a sizable bonus to sign here.
Others: RHP Cole Phillips (Boerne HS, TX), OF Roman Anthony (Stoneman Douglas HS, FL), OF Henry Bolte (Palo Alto HS, CA), LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), RHP Blade Tidwell (Tennessee)
