The Diamondbacks didn't know if it would happen, but their guy fell to them at sixth overall and they got him. To afford Jordan Lawlar's big over slot bonus, they had to go six figures below slot in the second, third, fourth, seventh, and ninth rounds, though they did pop for another big over slot bonus in the eighth with Florida prep Gavin Conticello. Overall, I really like the class they came away with even if they took a lot of discounts, with my favorite pick being second rounder Ryan Bliss.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
1-6: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]. My rank: #6.
Jordan Lawlar had a lot of really big fans in the industry, actually earning the top spot on the Baseball America 500 and getting first overall buzz from the Pirates. He didn't go quite that high, but still got the third largest bonus in the draft behind only second overall pick Jack Leiter and third overall pick Jackson Jobe. Lawlar has long been praised as arguably the single most advanced high school player in the class, and it's pretty evident any time you watch him play. He's comfortable in the box against high level pitching, he's an aggressive but smart baserunner that's always looking for opportunities, and he has his head on a swivel at shortstop ready to handle whatever is thrown at him. At a young age, it's the kind of advanced feel for the game you typically see from mid-round "feel over tools" college shortstops, but with the upside of a high schooler. At the plate, he has handled everything he's seen from a stuff standpoint, picking up base hits against high velocity fastballs and quality breaking balls while using the whole field. He got off to a bit of a slow start during his high school season and swung and missed a bit more than expected, but righted the ship in plenty of time to show evaluators it was a fluke. There's a lot of twitchy strength in his 6'2" frame and should give him a chance for above average power, though for now it's looking more average than above. The swing is very clean and should he decide he wants to lift and turn on more baseballs, he should be able to do so without sacrificing his hit tool. The Dallas-Fort Worth product is supreme athlete that turns in plus run times and shows off a cannon arm at shortstop, and though he can be just a tad inconsistent with the glove, he has the range and instincts to not only stick there, but be an asset. Really, the only things that held Lawlar out of my top five were a lack of power projection (at least with regards to other top of the draft bats like Kahlil Watson, Brady House, Marcelo Mayer, and Henry Davis) and age, as he turned 19 less than a week after the draft. Still, we're looking at arguably the most complete profile in the high school class (I'd say Mayer is slightly more complete, but it's close), so it's not like he hasn't used that age to his advantage. The ceiling here is that of a 20-25 home run hitter with high on-base percentages and great defense at shortstop, with a more median outcome looking like 15-20 home runs and solid on-base percentages. Committed to Vanderbilt, Lawlar instead signed for $6.71 million, which was nearly $1 million above slot value.
2-42: SS Ryan Bliss, Auburn. My rank: #41.
Ryan Bliss was one of my favorite players in this draft class, so obviously I love this for the Diamondbacks, especially considering they got him below slot. Always a consistent performer at Auburn, Bliss busted out this year with his best season yet and slashed .365/.428/.654 with 15 home runs and a 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games, all while running the gauntlet of SEC pitching. He's a plus hitter that makes a ton of hard contact and rarely swings and misses, striking out at just a 12.7% rate while continuing to hit for impact. Just 5'9", it's easy to label him a contact hitter and move on to the next player, but Bliss packs a punch. There's a ton of twitchy strength in that small frame and he shows a knack for turning on baseballs in his wheelhouse, maximizing every bit of power he has and adding plenty of extra bases on top of it. I saw both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America label him with 40 grade (below average) power, but I would go at least 45 grade (fringe-average) and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up truly average in that regard, blasting 12-20 home runs a year. The western Georgia native has an aggressive approach at the plate that somewhat limits his walks, but he has such a knack for finding the barrel that I'm not worried about him striking out in pro ball, rather he just doesn't typically go deep in counts. Defensively, he's played shortstop at Auburn and has an outside chance to stick there with his scrappy style of play and quick actions, but he might have a touch less physicality than is needed for that spot (especially with Jordan Lawlar coming up behind him) and will probably move over to second base, where he could be a plus defender. Bliss plays hard and never leaves anything on the field, so he's going to continue to squeeze every bit of talent out of himself as he works his way up. I see the Diamondbacks' second baseman of the future to pair up with Lawlar. Bliss signed for $1.25 million, which was roughly $520,000 below slot value, and he's slashing .262/.290/.415 with two home runs through 15 games at Low A Visalia.
CBB-67: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami. My rank: #56.
It wasn't a great year for the top college bats coming into the season, and a big part of that was Adrian Del Castillo, who I saw projected as high as second overall to the Rangers in preseason mock drafts. Coming into the season, he was fairly universally lauded as the most professional hitter in the draft, having hit .336/.430/.571 with significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32) over his first two seasons. It was a plus hit tool with above average power that he tapped in games, and few pitchers could find holes in his swing. It was a different story in 2021, as he continued to manage the strike zone well but the impact was gone. He hit just .275/.380/.395 with three home runs and a 28/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games, his .120 ISO (slugging minus batting average) way down from .245 as a freshman and .189 as a sophomore. Now, it's a bit tough to know what to make of the profile. He's still a professional hitter that will have no problem handling minor league pitching, with advanced zone recognition and very little swing and miss. He's always in control of his at bats. The Diamondbacks are going to have to bring that power back out though, because questions do surround his glove. It takes three things to be a big league catcher: natural athleticism, innate feel for the position, and hard work. Del Castillo absolutely has the latter two, as his strong feel for hitting translates to a sound fundamental game behind the plate and he's worked extremely hard to get better, but for now, it looks like he's missing that third piece. The Miami native isn't the quickest back there when it comes to blocking balls in the dirt and while his arm is accurate, it's not all the plus cannon you see from a lot of other amateurs. If he's forced to move to first base, the power will have to come back. Now, there's absolutely room for optimism. As we've mentioned, that innate feel for hitting has not gone anywhere and he remains able to put together strong at bat after strong at bat, and he has shown above average power in the past on a consistent basis. The Diamondbacks will have to find a way to bring it back out of him, whether that's through a tweak in his swing or through a new workout regimen or whatever, but when he's at his best, it's as complete of a profile in the box as you're going to find. At his ceiling, Del Castillo has a chance for 20-25 home runs a year and high on-base percentages, which would be great for a catcher if he can indeed stick there. He signed for $1 million, which was $23,300 above slot value, and he's hitting .200/.322/.320 through 14 games, mostly at Low A Visalia.
3-77: RHP Jacob Steinmetz, ELEV8 Academy [FL]. My rank: #116.
In drafting Jacob Steinmetz, the Diamondbacks picked up the first ever known Orthodox Jew to play professional baseball. He's been trending up for years now, and his stock continued to rise when he transferred to ELEV8 Academy in Florida. His fastball has naturally progressed with steady, sustainable increases in velocity, and it now parks comfortably in the low 90's with a peak around 95. Steinmetz's curveball shows quality shape and depth, and as it adds more power, it has a chance to become a plus pitch. He also shows feel for a slider and changeup that are a bit behind the other two pitches, but everything is trending up. Everything he throws has high spin rates, adding extra life to the fastball and a higher ceiling for his breaking balls. While the command isn't pinpoint and he's still very much growing into his 6'5" frame, there's not a ton of effort in his simple delivery and that portends future average or even above average command. All together, the Long Island native is going to need considerable refinement and development, but there are no red flags in the profile at all and everything points to him continuing the trend he's on towards becoming an impact starting pitcher. To top it off, Steinmetz is young for his class and didn't turn 18 until a week after the draft, making him a full year younger than first rounder Jordan Lawlar and adding extra time for him to get stronger, more consistent, etc. And by all accounts, he's a hard worker who will make the most of his natural talent and then some. Committed to Fordham, he instead signed for $500,000, which was $305,600 below slot value.
4-107: RHP Chad Patrick, Purdue Northwest. Unranked.
The Diamondbacks made history with a second straight pick here, now drafting the first player ever out of Division II Purdue University Northwest in Hammond, Indiana. Chad Patrick was one of the country's best pitchers at the DII level this year, posting a 1.83 ERA and a 97/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 innings, going at least six innings in each of his eight starts and getting through the seventh in all but one. He carved up his overwhelmed opposition with a low to mid 90's fastball that functions as his primary weapon and can get up to 97, adding a full array of secondary pitches. He's separated a slurvy breaking ball into two distinct, average pitches in a curve and a slider, while his changeup shows nice fade and sink. Everything plays up because he pounds the strike zone and loves to get ahead in the count. The 6'1" righty deploys a clean, repeatable delivery that helps him maintain both his stuff and command deep into games, giving him every chance to work his way up as a back-end starter. If he wants to be more, he'll probably need to find a putaway pitch by taking a step forward with one of his secondaries. The northwestern Indiana native may have pitched in a small conference this year, but he's no stranger to better competition and showed well in the Northwoods League back in 2019 (3.49 ERA, 52/18 K/BB). Age is a slight drawback here, as he turned 23 a few days before I published this review and he'll want to move relatively quickly. He signed for $350,000, which was $193,500 below slot value.
5-138: C Caleb Roberts, North Carolina. Unranked.
Caleb Roberts wasn't much of a threat during his first two years at UNC, slashing just .222/.367/.272 over 57 games and never putting one over the fence. However, he hit two home runs in his first game of the 2021 season and never looked back, slashing .270/.442/.476 with ten home runs and a 41/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games this spring. Roberts is a very, very patient hitter who rarely chases and really for the most part won't swing unless he gets one he likes. It's led to an extremely high 16.5% career walk rate, something that was really his only strength during those tough first two years in Chapel Hill (as you can see by the lopsided slash line in the first sentence). He's talked on strength since then and now has considerable power in his 6'1" frame, especially to the pull side, though it's a bit of a grooved swing that doesn't always adjust well to pitches outside his wheelhouse. His "make pitchers come to me" approach really helps mitigate that, though he can get into trouble with two strikes and get caught looking. The Diamondbacks will want to work with him on getting more aggressive at times and being able to expand his zone when necessary, but that's not necessarily a bad problem to have as most hitters struggle to recognize bad pitches whereas Roberts really excels there. A catcher entering UNC, the South Florida native has spent most of his time at school in the outfield, though the Diamondbacks have tried him out a bit behind the plate. He's pretty raw back there as you'd expect from someone who was pushed off the position in college and may not stick, but the bat looks a lot better if he can, perhaps enough to play every day. In the outfield, where his fringy speed relegates him to a corner, he's more likely a fourth or fifth outfielder/platoon bat. Roberts signed for full slot value at $402,000 and is slashing .149/.322/.277 over 14 games so far, mostly at Low A Visalia.
6-168: RHP Luke Albright, Kent State. My rank: #121.
Kent State has earned a reputation as the Midwest's premier pitching factory, at times outshining larger nearby schools like Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana in that facet. Luke Albright is the latest product to come out of the MAC program, coming off a strong three year career in which he put up a 2.98 ERA and a 178/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings. His 3.40 ERA in 2021 was actually a career-worst mark, but ironically he only allowed two or fewer earned runs in every single start against teams outside the state of Michigan (combining for a 1.91 ERA) but was touched up for sixteen runs in three starts against Eastern, Central, and Western Michigan. Fortunately, the Tigers are in the American League, so he won't have to face them as often. Alright's arsenal doesn't have a clear plus pitch, but it's balanced throughout and he does a very good job deploying it. His fastball sits in the low 90's and is more or less an ordinary pitch by pro standards, while he shows good feel to spin the ball and gets sharp break on his curveball and more lateral movement on his distinct slider. The changeup isn't a weapon but it's certainly usable and should continue to serve him well against left handed hitters in pro ball. The 6'4" righty doesn't have pinpoint command and can get into trouble with walks at times, but he mitigates some of that inconsistency with a willingness to go right after hitters and pound the strike zone. That plays further into what evaluators have seen as a very competitive streak on the mound, something that will undoubtedly be a boon in pro ball as he gets battle tested. So far, he's proven durable at Kent State and hasn't missed a start since he was added to their rotation last year, giving him every opportunity to work his way up as a #4-ish starter. The Indianapolis-area native signed for full slot value at $301,600 and has allowed three runs in 2.1 innings at Low A Visalia.
8-228: 3B Gavin Conticello, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL]. Unranked.
After rolling the dice on Wisconsin prep AJ Vukovich a year ago, the Diamondbacks will do so with another power hitting teenager this spring in Gavin Conticello. Conticello has a ton of room to grow into his 6'4" frame, which along with his big left handed hack gives him a chance for plus power at the big league level. It's all projection for now, though, as that big swing can get out of whack in games and he didn't always make consistent contact even in the spring against local competition, albeit strong local competition in South Florida. Arizona will want to take its time developing his bat, helping him fill out that frame and getting more coordinated and more intentional with his mechanics. Conticello doesn't show the quickest actions out in the infield and will have to work to stick at third base in the shifting era, but his strong arm gives him every opportunity to do so. Age is a positive factor here, as he only turned 18 a month before the draft, giving him extra time to develop. There's a lot of upside here and a lot of risk. Committed to South Florida, he signed for $500,000, which was $313,700 above slot value.
10-288: LHP Hugh Fisher, Vanderbilt. My rank: #217.
Hugh Fisher has already earned Randy Johnson comps, so this will be a fun one. He never quite found his place in a deep Vanderbilt bullpen and threw just 55 innings in three seasons (three full seasons, since he sat out 2020 with Tommy John surgery), this year posting a 2.45 ERA and a 13/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 innings and gradually losing playing time over the course of the season. The 6'6" lefty isn't quite as big as the Big Unit, but it's still an apt comparison. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and can rip off a vicious slider all from a nearly sidearm slot, so when it's located, it's true ninth inning stuff. Problem is, it's rarely located. Fisher has near bottom of the scale command and managed to get just one out over his final four appearances combined, with head coach Tim Corbin only allowing him to face one hitter in each of final three. Those resulted in two walks and a hit by pitch. He's not consistent with any of his mechanics and will need considerable work in pro ball, though after missing a year with Tommy John surgery he's now 22 and a half years old. There's true closer upside in the fashion of Josh Hader, himself a late round pick, but only if he improves his command at least a full grade if not two grades. The Memphis-area native signed for $100,000, which was $47,900 below slot value, and he's allowed three runs in four innings so far at Low A Visalia.
14-408: SS Channy Ortiz, Grand Canyon. Unranked.
The Diamondbacks did make one hometown pick in 2021, grabbing PHX lifer Channy Ortiz. A graduate of Apollo High School in Glendale, he only needed to head a few miles down 35th Avenue to attend Grand Canyon University. 2021 was his best season yet, as he slashed .313/.413/.454 with eight home runs and a 23/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games. Ortiz is a strong contact hitter with exceptional strike zone management, always finding good pitches to hit and driving them with authority from both sides of the plate. His skinny 5'10" frame limits just how much authority that is, but it's enough that he should pick up plenty of extra base hits and ambush pitchers for home runs here and there. He's an instinctual defender that makes all the plays at shortstop, and all together it's a classic utility infield profile to go with Josh Rojas, another PHX native. Ortiz signed for $125,000 and is slashing .143/.250/.143 through ten games, mostly at Low A Visalia.
