Friday, January 19, 2024

Major League Baseball, true to its geography


With two strikes in the bottom of the ninth inning, Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel fires a fastball by Los Angeles Angels star Freddie Freeman to seal the 2023 World Series. Atlanta catcher Cal Raleigh leaps into his arms as Atlanta celebrates yet another Fall Classic crown, and the dynasty is showing no signs of letting up. Why would it? On paper, the Braves have been the most dominant team in baseball for a long time, so much so that Major League Baseball is considering moving franchises into the region to split up the talent and create more parity.

Welcome to an alternate reality, one where there is no draft, no free agency, and no trades. Instead, Major League Baseball has decided to prioritize the city on the front of the jersey. In this reality, every player joins the team whose territory he falls into. The Dodgers are entirely made up of players from California, the Marlins' entire roster hails from sunny South Florida, boys grow up in Rhode Island knowing it's Red Sox or bust, and the Braves are truly the Team of the South. Obviously, there are hundreds of reasons this wouldn't work in our reality as rosters would be wildly imbalanced, labor conditions would be extraordinarily complicated, and foreign players would be ignored completely unless MLB expanded to Latin America and East Asia. But nonetheless, it makes for a fascinating case study examining the disparity between market share. And above all, from my perspective at least, it is extremely fun to see who plays where.

Below, you'll find that parity issue playing out. Almost uniformly, it appears that the farther south you go, the better the teams get, and that's unsurprising given most of MLB's oldest franchises concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest. America's population has steadily shifted westwards in the time since the turn of the 19th century, and more recently, youth sports have become big, big business in southern urban areas in places like Georgia, Florida, and Texas. If you look at the amount of talent that comes out of New York City and Chicago, America's first and third largest metro areas by population, and compared it to smaller urban areas like Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte, and Nashville, you might be surprised. That, plus the fact that New York and Chicago are both split by two teams apiece while the four smaller cities I mentioned fit into two teams' territories total, is another reason for the disparity. For this reason, in this reality, MLB is considering easing up the logjam in the Northeast and Midwest and dispersing it into the South. The Orioles are currently stuck with just the state of Maryland plus and a few rural counties in West Virginia, Delaware, and Virginia, making them a prime candidate for a move, with the potential to head to Charlotte and carve the Carolinas out of the Braves' prodigious territory. Another option would be to move the Pirates, who get only Western Pennsylvania and most of West Virginia, to a place like Jacksonville to break off some Rays territory. The Milwaukee Brewers, too, could find themselves heading to a place like New Orleans to take Louisiana from the Astros and Mississippi from the Braves. Nashville and even a place like Rancho Cucamonga or San Bernardino in California's Inland Empire to bite into Dodgers and Angels territory look to be additional relocation options, with other boxed-in teams like the Twins, Guardians, Tigers, and either the Cubs or White Sox hope to find their way to greener pastures.

Back to the Atlanta Braves. Their territory extends from the Piedmont Triad in northwestern North Carolina all the way down through the Carolinas and across the Deep South to the Mississippi River, headquartered in one of baseball's greatest hotbeds of talent in the country – Atlanta, Georgia. The result is a fearsome lineup led by 50-homer bat Matt Olson (Lilburn, GA), regular MVP candidate Corey Seager (Kannapolis, NC), reigning NL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson (Selma, AL), and one of the best players in the entire game in Mookie Betts (Nashville, TN). Meanwhile, the pitching staff may be even more impressive led by a pair of perennial Cy Young candidates in Zack Wheeler (Dallas, GA) and Spencer Strider (Knoxville, TN). They're the best team in baseball, and it's not particularly close. The Braves' dominance is nothing new, either, as this generation took the reins from an equally strong squad in the previous era led by David Price (Murfreesboro, TN), Madison Bumgarner (Granite Falls, NC), and Adam Wainwright (Brunswick, GA) on the mound throwing to Buster Posey (Leesburg, GA) behind the plate. Not only is Atlanta a massive hotbed of talent, but places like Nashville, Charlotte, and even smaller cities like Knoxville, Jackson, and Upstate South Carolina give the Braves an embarrassment of riches. In this reality, they even had to cede the Raleigh-Durham area to the Nationals just to create more parity (and it's notable that Raleigh-Durham is physically closer to DC than Atlanta, anyways). In return for picking up this talent hotbed, the Nationals agreed to cede to the Orioles the portions of Maryland immediately bordering the District as well as Virginia's Eastern Shore.

The Braves have no problem locking up the division regularly, but the Miami Marlins certainly push them and regularly compete for a Wild Card spot despite locking up just one major city in their territory. Down in South Florida, they do it with the bats. Trea Turner (Lake Worth) and Manny Machado (Miami) form the best left side of any infield in baseball, while J.D. Martinez (Miramar), Nick Castellanos (Davie), Anthony Rizzo (Parkland), and Yasmani Grandal (Miami Springs) have provided additional thunder for a long, long time now. Even with the aging core, young bats like Triston Casas (Pembroke Pines), Jonathan India (Coral Springs), and a slew of hitting prospects on the way led by Coby Mayo (Coral Springs) and Roman Anthony (North Palm Beach) ensure a smooth transition. The pitching staff has played closer to average, especially with the recent regression of Alek Manoah (Homestead), but the emergence of Jesus Luzardo (Parkland) and top prospect Andrew Painter (Pompano Beach) lend real hope to the future in that regard. While the Braves' run of dominance may never end, the Marlins feel as though the big three of Manoah, Luzardo, and Painter will hold offenses down just enough to win plenty of slugfests.

The rest of the NL East feels fairly hopeless behind Atlanta and Miami. The Washington Nationals at one point had some great teams behind Josh Hamilton (Raleigh, NC), Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA), David Wright (Chesapeake, VA), the Upton brothers (Chesapeake), and Justin Verlander (Manakin-Sabot, VA), though it was never enough to push towards the top of the division. More recently, that core has been replaced by many league-average or below players, and the team will have to bank on the next wave led by Andrew Abbott (Republican Grove, VA) and Bryce Eldridge (Vienna, VA) to rectify things. The New York Mets find themselves in a similar position. Long Island and North Jersey don't produce like they used to, especially when it comes to bats. Now with Todd Frazier (Toms River, NJ) out of the picture, only Anthony Volpe (Watchung, NJ) and Logan O'Hoppe (Sayville, NY) remain to lead the lineup into the next era of Mets baseball. It's disappointing, too, because the Mets don't pitch half bad. Marcus Stroman (Medford, NY) has led a pretty solid rotation for a while now, while Adam Ottavino (Brooklyn, NY) has been a mainstay in one of baseball's most quietly lethal bullpens. Beyond that, Jack Leiter (Summit, NJ) is on the way to lead reinforcements, and the Mets look to be playing a lot of low scoring games in the future.

Meanwhile in Philadelphia, Mike Trout (Millville, NJ) is yet to play a single playoff game in his career as the Phillies have struggled to put any semblance of a supporting cast around him. However, things may be stirring if he can stay healthy a little bit longer. Zac Gallen (Gibbsboro, NJ) has emerged as the team's first legitimate starting pitcher since Ryan Vogelsong (Atlgen, PA) and Jamie Moyer (Souderton, PA), while Christian Walker (Limerick, PA), Chas McCormick (West Chester, PA), and Nolan Jones (Langhorne, PA) join Trout to form Philadelphia's best lineup in recent memory. With a few more strong prospects like Anthony Solometo (Sicklerville, NJ), Reggie Crawford (Frackville, PA), and Kevin McGonigle (Aldan, PA) working their way up the ranks, the Phillies may just be competitive for the first time in ages. It also doesn't hurt to have perhaps the best amateur hitter in the country, Nick Kurtz (Lancaster, PA) locked up for when he he's ready for pro ball.

Jumping to the AL East, we see a similar dynamic with the Tampa Bay Rays absolutely running the table with a string of consecutive division crowns, all by ten games-plus. A frankly unbelievable rotation which has seen the likes of Jacob deGrom (De Leon Springs), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Chris Sale (Lakeland), Shane McClanahan (Cape Coral), Logan Gilbert (Apopka), and the late Jose Fernandez (Tampa, FL), among many, many others, come through in recent years has even propelled them to multiple World Series wins, regularly matching up against Atlanta in MLB's version of the Gator-Bulldog bowl. But unlike the Mets, they don't just pitch. As the era of Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade) and Josh Donaldson (Pace) winds down, the Rays' fearsome lineup now features names like Francisco Lindor (Clermont), Pete Alonso (Tampa), Kyle Tucker (Tampa), and Bo Bichette (Tierra Verde). Not only that, but Dylan Crews (Longwood) and Wyatt Langford (Trenton) give them two of the very best hitting prospects in the country. Getting those two into the lineup in 2024 may make Tampa the team to beat in the American League, even if both deGrom and McClanahan are questionable due to injuries.

With the Rays as firmly entrenched atop the division as any team in baseball, instead of battling for division crowns, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees instead battle it out for the occasional Wild Card spot. Lately, the Yankees like their chances having put together their best rotation in a long time led by George Kirby (Rye, NY), Charlie Morton (Trumbull, CT), and Josiah Gray (New Rochelle, NY) while Jeff Hoffman (Latham, NY) and James Karinchak (Montgomery, NY) lead a very solid bullpen. The lineup, though, remains lean behind star catcher Jonah Heim (Amherst, NY), with the lack of development from Henry Davis (Bedford, NY) so far being a setback for the team. Meanwhile, Boston has put together a solid rotation led by Aaron Civale (East Windsor, CT) and Michael King (Warwick, RI), even as Rich Hill (Milton, MA) begins to decline. Their lineup is very top heavy, but George Springer (New Britain, CT) and Jeremy Peña (Providence, RI) give them more thump in the middle than New York and young guns like Sal Frelick (Lexington, MA) and Matt Shaw (Brimfield, MA) give them a great chance to leap ahead of the Yankees in 2024 and beyond. They should be looking over their shoulders, though, because the Toronto Blue Jays may be somewhat competitive, at least in terms of the middle of the AL East. Joey Votto (Toronto, ON) may be declining, but bats like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Montreal, QC), Edouard Julien (Quebec City, QC), and the Naylor brothers (Mississauga, ON) have created for Toronto a much deeper lineup than they have in the past. The team lacks a true ace and instead has a rotation full of mid to back end guys, though Jordan Romano (Markham, ON) and Matt Brash (Kingston, ON) make for an excellent one-two punch in the bullpen. This team won't compete with the Rays for division crowns, but the Canadians could be a spoiler late in the season as Boston and New York look to eek out the third Wild Card spot.

Meanwhile, things really are not great in Baltimore. The league already had to step in and hand the Maryland side of the Washington DC suburbs to the Orioles to help them stay competitive, and in return allowed the Nationals to carve out the Raleigh-Durham area from the overwhelmingly talent-wealthy Braves. Even with expanded territory that creeps to within three miles of Nationals Park, the Orioles still struggle. Only one pitcher on the entire roster, closer Josh Hader (Millersville, MD) can be considered a legitimate major leaguer, as Chad Kuhl (Middletown, DE) struggled in 2023 and Adam Kolarek (Catonsville, MD) battled injuries. At the plate, Jake Fraley (Middletown, DE), LaMonte Wade (Owings Mills, MD), and Zack Gelof (Rehoboth Beach, DE) provide some punch, in fact making for the best lineup the team has had in recent memory. Still, the team struggles with defensive versatility with an oversaturation of 1B/LF types, forcing the teenage Lamar King (Perry Hall, MD) into everyday duty behind the plate. Still, for a team accustomed to losing over one hundred games per season year in and year out, they do have the makings of a decent lineup and if some combination of Mason Albright (Hagerstown, MD), Colin Peluse (Middletown, DE), and Pete Heubeck (Baltimore, MD) can turn themselves into major league contributors, this team could at least get off the mat. Having a quartet of excellent hitting prospects in James Wood (Olney, MD), Jackson Merrill (Severna Park, MD), Chase DeLauter (Martinsville, WV), and Tyler Locklear (Abingdon, MD) only adds to that optimism.

Meanwhile, over in the NL Central, we see actual division races between teams that are fairly evenly matched. Led by Max Scherzer (Chesterfield, MO) and Devin Williams (Florissant, MO) on the bump and a trio of 30 home run bats in Austin Riley (Hernando, MS), Jake Burger (Chesterfield), and Brent Rooker (Germantown, TN) in the lineup, the St. Louis Cardinals have generally worked their way up to the top. With territory stretching across seven states along the Mississippi River from northwestern Mississippi to southeastern Iowa, they have long sported deep pitching staffs that beyond Scherzer and Williams have included names like Jake Odorizzi (Breese, IL), Pete Fairbanks (Webster Groves, MO), and Chad Green (Effingham, IL) in addition to two up and coming young arms in Tanner Houck (Collinsville, IL) and Reid Detmers (Nokomis, IL). The bats have been less consistent, and down years have allowed teams like the Reds to claim some division titles while the Cubs work their way into the mix as well, but the group led by Riley looks to make St. Louis the class of the NL Central for now. Speaking of the Cincinnati Reds, they won't let that happen so easily now that Walker Buehler (Lexington, KY) and JT Brubaker (New Carlisle, OH) are set to come back from injury. Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaadt (Louisville, KY) and Ryan Pepiot (Westfield, IN) serve as natural successors to aging workhorse Lance Lynn (Brownsburg, IN), while Brent Suter (Cincinnati, OH) has been a veteran presence over a strong bullpen. The lineup packs a bit more punch than St. Louis, as Will Smith (Louisville) and Sean Murphy (Centerville, OH) make for the best catching tandem in the league while Kyle Schwarber (Middletown, OH) is good for 40 bombs a year and Adam Duvall (Louisville) provides additional pop. They're every bit as good as their St. Louis counterparts and will continue to make for exciting division races.

Behind those two, the Chicago Cubs occupy the awkward middle ground in the Central. They can pitch for sure – Mitch Keller (Cedar Rapids, IA) and Bobby Miller (McHenry, IL) form a nice one-two punch at the top of the rotation succeeding the previous duo of J.A. Happ (Peru, IL) and Mike Foltynewicz (Minooka, IL), while Ryan Borucki (Mundelein, IL) and A.J. Puk (Cedar Rapids) anchor a very respectable bullpen. However, the team has always struggled to hit, and that looks to be the case for the foreseeable future, having never had more than a couple legitimate bats at any given point. Right now, that's Jack Suwinski (Chicago, IL) and Ryan Noda (Volo, IL), stepping up over the regressing Paul DeJong (Antioch, IL) who had teamed with Jason Kipnis (Northbrook, IL) earlier in his career. To compete with the Cardinals and Reds, they'll have to find offense somewhere, and beyond Suwinski they really don't have many young bats on the horizon. Just across the border, though, things look to be shifting in a positive direction for the Milwaukee Brewers. They have struggled a bottom feeders, and in the final years pre-pandemic they lost well over one hundred games per season. However, that's starting to turn around. Daulton Varsho (Chili, WI), Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha, WI), Gavin Lux (Kenosha, WI), and Danny Jansen (Appleton, WI) have created a real lineup. Colin Rea (Cascade, IA) and Alec Marsh (Milwaukee, WI) aren't flashy, but they give the team it's first legitimate one-two punch in the rotation since Rea teamed with Jordan Zimmermann (Auburndale, WI). It's not a competitive team yet, but the farm system is vastly improved with big name prospects like A.J. Vukovich (East Troy, WI) and Alex Binelas (Oak Creek, WI) swinging their way towards the lineup and Connor Prielipp (Tomah, WI) looking to extend that Milwaukee rotation. They're still safely the fourth best team in the division, but they could catch Chicago sooner rather than later with the Cubs' lineup woes. Lastly, the Pittsburgh Pirates remain perennial one hundred game losers and more than once have limped to the worst record in baseball, especially now that former stars like Neil Walker (Gibsonia, PA), Devin Mesoraco (Punxsutawney, PA), Jedd Gyorko (Morgantown, WV), and Matt Adams (Philipsburg, PA) have faded out of the league. It doesn't help either that former can't-miss prospect Brendan McKay (Darlington, PA) has battled injuries and has never become the player many projected him to be. So where does that leave the Buccos today, besides just the cellar of the NL Central? Ian Happ (Mount Lebanon, PA) and Alex Kirilloff (New Kensington, PA) provide a pair of legitimate bats, but the lineup falls off sharply from there as the team feels the sting of JJ Bleday (Titusville, PA) not quite reaching his full potential. Meanwhile, the pitching staff isn't much better. Mason Miller (Bethel Park, PA) has what it takes to lead the rotation when healthy, but he hasn't been, while Michael Grove (Wheeling, WV) gives a second decent starter and Joe Rock (Aliquippa, PA) is ready to break in. David Bednar (Mars, PA) leads a bullpen which is the team's strong spot, joined by Derek Law (Pittsburgh, PA) and a resurgent Scott McGough (Plum, PA). It's something, and when Miller or Grove turns in a solid start and can hand it over to Law and Bednar, the Pirates have something cooking. Otherwise, though, they lack depth on either side of the ball and don't look like they'll compete any time soon. On the bright side, Cole Young (Wexford, PA) gives them one great prospect while JJ Wetherholt (Mars) is one of the best amateur players in the country.

We like the NL Central because it's balanced and fun. The AL Central is also balanced, but it also represents the weakest division in the league and has never produced a Wild Card team. The Kansas City Royals have run the table there for some time now, led by Albert Pujols (Independence, MO), Matt Holliday (Stillwater, OK), Alex Gordon (Lincoln, NE), and Dallas Keuchel (Tulsa, OK), though they haven't quite had the same star power since those guys faded out. Still, it's enough to remain the favorites in their weak division. John Means (Olathe, KS) and Adrian Houser (Locust Grove, OK) provide a nice one-two punch atop the rotation, while Ryan Helsley (Tahlequah, OK) slams the door shut after being set up by the likes of Jason Adam (Overland Park, KS) and Jake Diekman (Wymore, NE), among others. It's nothing crazy, but it's enough to hold the anemic AL Central offenses at bay. Meanwhile, Alec Bohm (Omaha, NE) and Jazz Chisholm (Wichita, KS) head up a reasonably solid offense, at least enough to outlast their AL Central counterparts. They'll be getting some help very soon, though, as mega prospect Jackson Holliday (Stillwater) looks ready to go. Getting him and Jacob Misiorowski (Grain Valley, MO) up while getting Means and Aaron Ashby (Kansas City, MO) healthy will keep them afloat.

The rest of the division is pretty balanced, with no team standing out as the clear challenger to Kansas City. The Cleveland Guardians, however, can pitch with the best of them. Chris Bassitt (Genoa) and Eric Lauer (Elyria) give them a solid one-two punch to match Kansas City, while Tanner Scott (Howland) and Andrew Chafin (Wakeman) lead one of the better, deeper bullpens in baseball surprisingly enough. However, they can't hit a lick. Luke Raley (Medina) and Dominic Canzone (Sagamore Hills) represent the only legitimate hitters in the lineup, so Cleveland can't get top prospects Dillon Dingler (Massillon) and Colt Emerson (Cambridge) up fast enough. They can pitch for sure, but even a Bassitt shutout won't win a game where you get shut out too. The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox have more balanced rosters, but can't quite pitch with the Guardians. DJ LeMahieu (Bloomfield Hills) isn't what he used to be but still provides a veteran presence, while Joey Wiemer (Temperence) finds himself on the other end of the spectrum as a young up and comer. Jake Cronenworth (St. Clair) and Jon Berti (Troy) split the difference, giving Detroit at least some semblance of a lineup. Meanwhile, Hunter Brown (St. Clair Shores) and Tommy Henry (Portage) lead up the rotation while Brock Porter (Milford) should provide reinforcement soon. It's enough to stay out of the cellar, but overall there's just not enough talent in the state of Michigan to break .500 in any given season. The White Sox, meanwhile, have a deeper lineup than both the Guardians and Tigers despite lacking a carrying bat. Kevin Kiermaier (Fort Wayne, IN) has led the bats since the end of the Curtis Granderson (Lansing, IL)/Ben Zobrist (Eureka, IL) era, while Alek Thomas (Chicago, IL) looks to carry them into the next. Sean Manaea (Wanatah, IN) gives them a frontline starter while Colin Holderman (Bradley, IL) and Brock Stewart (Normal, IL) lead the bullpen, but overall the pitching staff has a serious depth problem. They'll out-swing the Guardians and Tigers but will have a lot of trouble on days Manaea isn't on the mound. Lastly, the Minnesota Twins area caught between eras after the retirements of Joe Mauer (St. Paul, MN), Glen Perkins (Stillwater, MN), and Pat Neshek (Brooklyn Park, MN), so they're in a bit of a transition period and don't look to be playing anything close to .500 ball. However, a youth movement is underway in the Upper Midwest that could get things turned around in a wide open AL Central. Matt Wallner (Forest Lake, MN) and Mike Baumann (Mahotmedi, MN) have already gotten established, while Brandon Williamson (Welcome), Louie Varland (North St. Paul, MN), and Max Meyer (Woodbury, MN) are ready to give Minnesota a real rotation. Michael Busch (Inver Grove Heights) is pushing his way to the majors as well along with big name prospects like Drew Gilbert (Stillwater) and Mac Horvath (Rochester, MN), which could join Wallner to create a legitimate lineup. If all goes right, the Twins could get off the floor and compete with the Royals up at the top.

Let's move over to the AL West, an absolute juggernaut of a division in which all five teams regularly finish over .500. It's an absolute bloodbath out there, led by the Los Angeles Angels who have represented the AL in the World Series more than a few times but including four more very dangerous teams. All five, in fact, would easily run the table in the AL Central. Back to Los Angeles, it's hard to find a more loaded team around baseball. Freddie Freeman (Orange), Nolan Arenado (Lake Forest), and Justin Turner (Lakewood) have anchored the lineup for a decade-plus, while Royce Lewis (Aliso Viejo) and Matt McLain (Tustin) inject some youth. One through nine, there are no easy outs here. The mound is no different, as Gerrit Cole (Santa Ana) and Shane Bieber (Laguna Hills) provide a pair of true aces while Tanner Bibee (Mission Viejo) plays the youth role. Orange County generates a ridiculous amount of talent and makes the Angels a force to be reckoned with even in a cut throat division. On the other end of the spectrum are the Seattle Mariners, who despite playing .500 ball year in and year out, seem stuck on the AL West's doormat. They don't have a bad squad – Michael Conforto (Redmond, WA), Jed Lowrie (Salem, OR), and Jake Lamb (Seattle, WA) have led the offense through the post-Jacoby Ellsbury (Madras, OR) and Grady Sizemore (Everett, WA) years in terms of the lineup. Similarly, Blake Snell (Shoreline, WA), Jon Lester (Puyallup, WA), and Matthew Boyd (Mercer Island, WA) have done the same for the rotation post-Tim Lincecum (Renton, WA). But to this point, the balanced, respectable roster has not been enough to survive the daily beatings they get going up against the star-studded Angels, A's, Rangers, and Astros. However, it now looks like the Mariners may be able to push their way to a Wild Card spot if not towards the top of the division, and it's not just because Drew Rasmussen (Mead, WA) has quietly turned into an ace. No, the Mariners have not just one, but arguably the two best young bats in the entire league – Adley Rutschman (Sherwood, OR) and Corbin Carroll (Seattle). If you did a draft of Major League Baseball right now knowing you could keep players for the rest of their careers, it's highly likely that those two would be among the very first players taken, and the Mariners have them both. Even if Seattle has some things to figure out on the infield, that's an extremely enviable position to be in. If Michael Toglia (Gig Harbor, WA) can take a step forward with the bat to lengthen the lineup a little, then you have a real contender.

Over in the Lone Star State, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are constantly battling back and forth for talent. Even though the Astros were able to grab three major Texas cities in Houston, Austin, and San Antonio, in addition to New Orleans, the Rangers can compete step for step with just DFW and Oklahoma City alone. Houston's lineup has been aging for a bit, with guys like Anthony Rendon (Houston, TX), Brandon Belt (Hudson, TX), Matt Carpenter (Sugar Land, TX), and even Paul Goldschmidt (The Woodlands, TX) beginning to fade, but recently they've seen an injection of youth from guys like Ke'Bryan Hayes (Tomball, TX), Josh Jung (San Antonio, TX), and top prospects like Colton Cowser (Cypress, TX), Jordan Westburg (New Braunfels, TX), and Masyn Winn (Kingwood, TX). On the other side of the state, the Rangers haven't had quite as much fire power in their lineup that has recently been led by J.T. Realmuto (Midwest City, OK), Max Muncy (Keller, TX), Trevor Story (Irving, TX), and Josh Bell (Irving). However, their youth movement in in the lineup may be even stronger if only for superstar youngster Bobby Witt Jr. (Colleyville, TX) pushing Story off of shortstop, while top prospects Jordan Lawlar (Irving) and Jett Williams (Rockwall, TX) are coming quickly. The mound, meanwhile, is where the Rangers have historically shined. At one point, they boasted Clayton Kershaw (Highland Park, TX), Jake Arrieta (Plano, TX), Corey Kluber (Coppell, TX), and Noah Syndergaard (Mansfield) all at their peak, though that has regressed just a touch as those players have regressed and Jon Gray (Chandler, OK) and Dustin May (Justin, TX) haven't quite stepped up to the place the prior group was in. While the Astros lack a clear cut ace like Kershaw, the trio of Aaron Nola (Baton Rouge, LA), Nathan Eovaldi (Alvin, TX), and Wade Miley (Loranger, LA) have been a reliable group for a long time now and Grayson Rodriguez (Nacogdoches, TX) and Bryce Miller (New Braunfels) will take the next era in their hands. Bullpen-wise, the Rangers' pen is coming off an elite season led by closer Ryan Pressly (Highland Village, TX), Chris Martin (Arlington, TX) and A.J. Minter (Whitehouse, TX), giving it the edge for now. The Astros, though, are strong in that regard as well led by Trevor Stephan (Magnolia, TX) and a deep crop behind him. For as big of a state it is, it's pretty remarkable how evenly spread the talent is throughout the Lone Star State, though Austin may be falling a bit behind.

Then we have the Oakland A's, a very strong team whose impending move to Las Vegas is going to rock the landscape of western baseball. They'll cede all of their territory in Northern California to the Giants, keeping only Western Nevada from their current territory, then take Las Vegas from the Diamondbacks as well as some of the surrounding desert areas. For the remainder of their time in Oakland, though, they'll continue to contend right in the thick of that nasty AL West. You get to do those things when you have a pair of MVP candidates in Aaron Judge (Linden, CA) and Marcus Semien (El Cerrito, CA) gracing your lineup in addition to other solid young hitters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Pleasant Hill, CA), TJ Friedl (Pleasanton, CA), and Nico Hoerner (Oakland, CA). Logan Webb (Rocklin, CA) gives them a true ace, while the rest of their deep pitching staff provides no breaks for hitters especially with young guns like Matt Manning (Elk Grove, CA) and Bryan Woo (Alameda, CA) breaking in. Once they move to Las Vegas, they'll lose every player on their active roster, but they will keep star prospect Robby Snelling (Reno, NV).

Speaking of shaking things up, the A's move may actually impact the NL West more than it will the AL West. In fact, it will turn the NL West on its head, removing the Arizona Diamondbacks from the top of the league and instead vaulting the San Francisco Giants into that position. For now, the Giants' roster looks average. Spencer Torkelson (Petaluma, CA) and Joc Pederson (Palo Alto, CA) provide the pop while Mark Canha (San Jose, CA), James Outman (Redwood City, CA), and Jeff McNeil (Nipomo, CA) have been more well-rounded hitters. Soon they'll inject Judge and Semien, among others, into that mix. The pitching staff is a bit thinner, lacking a true ace as Joe Ryan (San Anselmo, CA) has been the only starter to really establish himself and Kyle Nelson (San Francisco, CA) makes for a so-so relief ace. Again, they'll pick up Webb to be their new ace. For the Arizona Diamondbacks, though, things will move in the opposite direction. Their territory is primarily made up of two metro areas: Phoenix-Tucson and Las Vegas. The Arizona contingent has given them some legitimate impact players, from Cody Bellinger (Chandler), Nolan Gorman (Phoenix), Alex Verdugo (Tucson), and C.J. Cron (Phoenix) in the lineup to a pair of high caliber starting pitchers in Kyle Bradish (Goodyear) and Merrill Kelly (Scottsdale). However, it's been the Las Vegas contingent that has really driven the D-Backs to their success winning a few NL West titles, led of course by the great Bryce Harper (Las Vegas). Even behind him, names like Kris Bryant (Las Vegas), Joey Gallo (Henderson), Tommy Pham (Spring Valley), and Bryston Stott (Las Vegas) have helped create an offensive juggernaut in the desert. On the mound, Paul Sewald (Las Vegas) has developed into one of the better closers in baseball. However, all of them will be gone to the new Las Vegas A's, and the Diamondbacks will go from perennial division contender to a middle of the pack squad. One area of contention will be ace Tarik Skubal (Kingman, AZ), who grew up near the Nevada border in northwestern Arizona and could end up on either side of the territory line when it's ultimately drawn.

Over in Southern California, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Arizona's chief competition for the NL West crown. Led by Corbin Burnes (Bakersfield), Tyler Glasnow (Santa Clarita), and the famous Harvard-Westlake trio of Max Fried (Santa Monica), Lucas Giolito (Santa Monica), and Jack Flaherty (Los Angeles), they can pitch with anybody even if Trevor Bauer (Santa Clarita) never comes back. The lineup, though, is aging a bit, as hitters like Giancarlo Stanton (Tujunga), Evan Longoria (Downey), Mike Moustakas (Chatsworth), and Christian Yelich (Thousand Oaks) aren't quite what they used to be and Ryan Braun (Granada Hills) is long gone. In order to compete with the Diamondbacks in the short term and later with the soon-to-be-surging Giants, they'll need young bats like Lars Nootbaar (El Segundo), Tyler Freeman (Rancho Cucamonga), and top infield prospects Jacob Gonzalez (Glendora), Jacob Wilson (Thousand Oaks), and the younger Max Muncy (Thousand Oaks, CA) to step up. Down south, the San Diego Padres are missing the old days when Stephen Strasburg (Santee) and Cole Hamels (San Diego) led a nasty rotation and Adrian Gonzalez (Chula Vista) and Adam Jones (San Diego) glued a deep lineup together. These days, Joe Musgrove (El Cajon) represents far and away the Friars' best starter while Kevin Ginkel (Lakeside) leads the bullpen, but the team struggles with depth and has been falling in the NL West in recent years. The lineup lacks a true impact bat, with Mickey Moniak (Carlsbad) and Tommy Edman (San Diego) representing the closest thing to that until Spencer Jones (Encinitas) can reach the big leagues. Besides Musgrove, it's been a while since San Diego has produced a real impact player. Back in Colorado, ironically, the Rockies have completely conquered Coors Field and run out a pitching juggernaut that threatens to drop the Padres to last in the division. Kevin Gausman (Aurora, CO) gives the team a true ace while Tyler and Taylor Rogers (Littleton, CO) pace the bullpen, and overall they bring a ton of depth on the mound and are getting deeper. Young guns like Trevor Rogers (Carlsbad, NM) and Griffin Jax (Greenwood Village, CO) will see to it that that remains the case. It's a bit of a different story offensively. Big names from down south like Alex Bregman (Albuquerque, NM) and Mitch Garver (Albuquerque),  in addition to Brandon Nimmo (Cheyenne, WY) from up north take advantage of the thin air to put up gaudy numbers. However, the lineup drops off sharply from there as Bobby Dalbec (Parker, CO) never quite got going like the Rockies wanted to. In order to push over the Padres and into the middle of the division, they'll have to find a way to hit more, and getting top prospect Brayden Taylor (West Jordan, UT) up to the majors will help that.

Monday, January 1, 2024

2024 MLB Draft: Ten candidates to go first overall

The 2024 draft season is upon us, and the 76-86 Cleveland Guardians own the first overall pick. Thanks to the draft lottery, with a .469 winning percentage last year, they'll be the best team ever to pick first overall by that measure. For that reason it's a great time to be a Guardians fan, as the team will have a slew of elite bats available to them in a class heavily favoring college hitters. As it turns out, the 71-91 Nationals actually won the lottery, but were ineligible to claim the first overall pick because they picked second last year. At this point, three position players seem to have separated themselves at the top of the draft in Oregon State's Travis Bazzana, West Virginia's JJ Wetherholt, and Wake Forest's Nick Kurtz. Of course, lots will change between now and July, and the gap between those three and the rest of the class is fairly slim as is. Overall, though, the top of the class is chock full of college bats, including the top six players on my current draft rankings (including one two-way player). The top of the high school class is a bit light for now, but that will also likely change between now and July.

The Guardians have shown a very clear draft strategy for a while now, especially in their position players. When it comes to position players, they love three things – youth, a polished hit tool, and the ability to stick up the middle. Fortunately for them, in this year's class, there are a ton of bats that fit those qualifications. Let's break down ten early candidates heading into the season.

2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State. My rank: #1.
Travis Bazzana isn't quite as young as the Guardians typically like, set to turn 22 before the end of his first pro season this upcoming summer, but I would take a long, long look at him if I were them. The Australian slugger broke out in 2023 by slashing .374/.500/.622 with eleven home runs as a sophomore at Oregon State, then continued his white hot hitting against elite pitching on the Cape with a .382/.474/.576 line over 36 games. An extraordinarily disciplined hitter, he walked more than he struck out both at Oregon State and on the Cape, the latter of which is exceedingly uncommon for a slugger. Beyond his trained eye at the plate, he has strong bat to ball ability and his compact strength in his 6' frame gives him at least above average power, likely plus to the pull side. It's an extremely complete offensive profile with the potential for 20+ home runs annually alongside on-base percentages approaching .400. Beyond the bat, he's a plus runner who stole 52 bases in 59 attempts (88% success) in 97 games combined between OSU and the Cape this year. Defensively, he fits Cleveland's up the middle preference with bouncy, athletic actions on the dirt that will make him a strong defender at second base. There's some potential at shortstop, though his average arm is a touch light for the position.
What he needs to do: Keep hitting, plain and simple. Bazzana already ranks first on my list, albeit by a slim margin. His speed and defense give him a leg up on some of the other early 1-1 candidates, so continuing to hit at a high level gives him every chance to hear his name first.

2B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia. My rank: #2.
JJ Wetherholt brings a very similar profile to Travis Bazzana. He's coming off an absurd sophomore season in which he hit .449/.517/.787 with 16 home runs for West Virginia, then raked both with the US Collegiate National Team (.263/.481/.579) and on the Cape (.321/.406/.571). Similar to Bazzana, he's on the older side and will turn 22 right around the end of his first pro season, but also like Bazzana, the bat is so loud that he'll be hard to ignore. Personally, I set Bazzana slightly ahead because he's a bit more explosive as an athlete and a bit more disciplined at the plate, but Wetherholt is every bit the ballplayer that Bazzana is. The pure bat to ball here is absolutely elite, some of the best not just in this class but in the past several classes. In fact, he struck out just once in 32 plate appearances against elite pitching on the Cape, and this is despite running moderately high chase rates. Wetherholt can simply get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it's pitched. While he's not physically imposing at 5'11", that elite feel for the barrel helps his average raw power play way up in games with a barrage of extra base hits and the ability to sneak the ball out to all fields. An above average runner, the Pittsburgh-area product has strong instincts on the bases to help the speed play as plus in terms of its ability to impact games. The speed gives him nice range at second base, though he doesn't quite have the arm or explosive athleticism required to play shortstop in pro ball.
What he needs to do: For me, Bazzana has a slight, slight leg up at this point due to his patience and explosiveness. However, Wetherholt did have a better season statistically than Bazzana did last year and if both repeat their 2023 numbers, it would be hard to bet against Wetherholt. Dropping his chase rate just a touch while proving his defense at second base would likely make him the favorite to go 1-1.

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest. My rank: #3.
Nick Kurtz doesn't exactly fit the Guardians' archetype as a power hitting first baseman, and if the draft were today, I think Cleveland would be choosing between JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana. However, Kurtz brings the most potent bat in the entire class, bar none, and any minor steps back from Wetherholt or Bazzana could push Kurtz straight to the top of the pack. He's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he slashed .353/.527/.784 with 24 home runs, and that .527 on-base percentage was the tops among all underclassmen nationwide, just ahead of second place Wetherholt (.517). In Kurtz, we're talking massive power. Standing 6'5" and weighing in at 235 pounds, he uses that big frame to generate effortless power from the left side, just dropping his hands to the ball, whipping the bat through the zone, and sending it out to parking lots in all directions. Not just a slugger, Kurtz pairs that plus-plus raw power with an extremely polished hit tool. He rarely chases and draws a ton of walks, and when pitchers come in the zone, his swing is plenty adjustable to be able to reach balls in all quadrants and do damage.  You really have to execute your game plan to perfection, then find some luck on top of that, to get him out. Pitchers did so less than half the time last year. The vast majority of Kurtz's value is tied to his bat, but the Lancaster, Pennsylvania native is more agile than you'd think for a kid that big and plays a very fine first base. Overall, he could become a 40 home run bat with high on-base percentages at peak, giving the Guardians a brand new Jim Thome.
What he needs to do: I don't think there's much he can do necessarily. Kurtz is already the best hitter in the draft, and there's a good chance he still is come July. Many teams, especially the Guardians, will look for any excuse to avoid a first baseman at the top of the draft, so his best hope is likely if Bazzana and Wetherholt fail to take the next step forward in 2024. This is absolutely not a criticism of Kurtz, but more the reality of how the Guardians and other teams view players this far down the defensive spectrum.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
This is the most fun profile at the top of the draft. It's natural to think of Shohei Ohtani when evaluating two-way players, but I really think that comp carries some weight here. Listed at 6'5", 245 pounds, Jac Caglianone is an absolute beast of a man with the ability to channel his immense size and strength into impact on both sides of the ball. He slashed .323/.389/.738 as a sophomore while setting the single season BBCOR era (since 2011) home run record at 33, carrying Florida to the College World Series Finals against LSU. The raw power here is frankly unbelievable. Caglianone has long, strong arms and legs and unleashes them for absolutely towering home runs at an extraordinarily high frequency – he homered more than once every ten plate appearances in 2023. His hand-eye coordination is also extremely impressive for such a tall, young kid. At this point, his approach is extremely raw and will need to be refined in pro ball. The Tampa native employs a heavy pull-oriented approach, allowing him to wallop baseballs into parking lots in right field, and his strength also enables his mishits to go land beyond the left field fence. He's also extremely aggressive, walking at just a 5.3% clip last year and running a slightly elevated 18.2% strikeout rate. He'll have to clean that up if he wants to handle pro pitching, as he's limited to first base with below average speed and the pressure will be on his bat. "CagliOhtani" is equally impressive on the mound, having posted a 4.34 ERA and an 87/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings this past season. The lefty can run his fastball into triple digits with some run and ride, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. His power slider gets into the upper 80's and he can morph it into a bit of a cutter, while his changeup gets nice fade to round out a four pitch mix. At this point, he struggles to repeat his crossfire delivery and that led to a 16% walk rate. Caglianone was very inconsistent in 2023, his first year pitching at the collegiate level, and has not shown the ability to hit spots with any repeatability. Overall, we're talking about the highest upside in the entire draft, upside which will come into focus once he focuses on one or the other.
What he needs to do: For Caglianone, it's pretty clear. As a hitter, he'll need to clean up his approach, plain and simple. That means using the whole field with intention and laying off breaking balls out of the zone. On the mound, he'll need to show a cleaner delivery and take a step forward with one of his secondary pitches. If he can finish that to-do list on one side of the ball or the other, I'd give him a long look at 1-1.

SS Seaver King, Wake Forest. My rank: #5.
Seaver King fits the Guardians' profile to a tee. He spent the last two years at Division II Wingate, but mashed to the tune of a .408/.453/.695 line with eleven home runs in 2023 and it became clear he did not belong at the level. Challenged with a stint in the Cape Cod League, representing a massive jump in competition for him, he passed with flying colors by slashing .424/.479/.542 in 16 games, thrusting himself into the first round picture just like that. This profile is driven by bat to ball. King has elite hand-eye coordination, covering the entire plate exceptionally well to the point where he almost never swings through a hittable pitch. Even after jumping from DII to Cape Cod League pitching, he ran just a 12.9% strikeout rate at the latter. At present, he's a very aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact on balls out of the zone as well, so he rarely walks, though in the small sample his walk rate jumped from 7.3% at Wingate to 10% on the Cape. It will be very interesting to see how King's approach develops at Wake Forest, where he'll face stronger pitching with better scouting reports and won't be able to get away with chasing as often as he does. The Athens, Georgia native is not overly physical at a listed 6', 190 pounds, but he shows a very quick bat from the right side and shows some sneaky power, especially to the pull side. His present approach, which seems unlikely to change, is more geared towards lashing hard line drives to all fields so he likely tops out around 15-20 home runs per season. Beyond the bat, King is a plus runner with nice range on the infield, and with an arm a tick better than that of Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt, he has a better shot to play shortstop at the big league level.
What he needs to do: King is transferring up from Division II to the ACC. He'll need to control the strike zone a little bit better against better stuff, and an uptick to fringe average or average power would be nice as well. If he can continue hitting like he did on the Cape, getting on base at a high clip while showing some power, it will be hard for Cleveland to pass up a potential high average, speedy shortstop.

OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina. My rank: #6.
So far, every player on this list is coming off a monster season, but Vance Honeycutt isn't quite in the same boat. He took the ACC by storm with a strong freshman season in 2022, but regressed to slash just .257/.418/.492 with 12 home runs as a sophomore in 2023. However, he has as much upside as any player in this class and could easily swing his way to the first overall selection if everything comes together. Ideally built with an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame, he's plenty strong already and figures to get even stronger as he fills out. Honeycutt employs a lightning quick right handed swing and shows the ability to elevate with authority, helping him project for plus power in pro ball. He also employs a very selective approach and forces pitchers to come to him, though his pure feel for the barrel leaves some to desired and represents the biggest hole in his game. The North Carolina native really shored up his approach in 2023 but didn't hit for nearly as much impact, watching his slugging percentage drop from .672 to .492. A plus runner, he is a fearless defender in center field who made numerous highlight reel catches at the wall last year. Between his speed, his polish in the grass, and his plus arm, he has a shot to contend for Gold Gloves in center field.
What he needs to do: The road for Honeycutt is clear. He needs to find a way to make more contact in the zone while maintaining his power, which can be a tricky task. If he can do that, though, he has All Star upside as a Gold Glove center fielder who hits for power and steals bases at a high clip.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #7.
At this point last year, Chase Dollander was the consensus top pitching prospect in the country. This year, no single pitcher has separated himself from the pack, and there is a group of three to four college arms that all find themselves more or less in the same tier. Chase Burns has the slightest of edges in that group right now, and I also think he's the most likely to both earn his way to the top and also fit in with Cleveland's plans. Burns was a big name prospect coming out of the Nashville area in 2021, but made it to campus at Tennessee and made an immediate impact, putting up a 3.54 ERA and a 217/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings during his two seasons in Knoxville. Transferring across the Smokies to Wake Forest, he could take another step forward in the program's famous pitching lab that has given us first rounders Rhett Lowder, Jared Shuster, and Ryan Cusick among many other success stories. While Burns is power over polish, he's steadily improving in the latter department and would fit well in Cleveland. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and regularly reaches triple digits, enough to blow hitters away even when he doesn't locate it precisely. The real story here is an absolute banger of a slider, which peaks its head into the low 90's with nasty late bite to make hitters look just straight up silly. Mostly just a fastball/slider guy for now, he's beginning to incorporate his curveball and changeup into his arsenal more and I expect those to take a larger role now in the Wake system. The 6'4" righty smoothed out his delivery nicely at Tennessee since looking a bit relieverish as a high schooler, and the result has been a consistent barrage of strikes. He's a bit lacking when it comes to in-zone command, but when your fastball touches triple digits and your slider sits around 90, just getting it in the zone is often good enough. Anybody who throws as hard as he does is always an injury question mark, though he otherwise appears durable.
What he needs to do: The fastball and slider are there. Now, he needs to show he can effectively work deeper into his arsenal by incorporating that curveball and changeup. Burns also needs to fine tune his command a bit to land in Cleveland, as pounding the strike zone like he does will be enough to get him to the big leagues but better in-zone command will make him an ace.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #9.
Hagen Smith, like Chase Burns, was a well-known prep coming out of the East Texas high school ranks in 2021 and made it to campus in the SEC, and now he joins Burns in that top tier of arms in 2024. While he hasn't quite put it all together yet, he has turned in two very solid seasons in the Razorbacks rotation and brings some of the loudest upside in the class to 2024. The fastball has been steadily ticking up for a while now, typically parking in the low to mid 90's last spring and reportedly reaching triple digits in the fall. He's still learning to harness his slider, but his best ones have late, nasty, two-plane bite that makes it easy to project as a plus pitch. Similarly, Smith's splitter is a bit less consistent than his slider, but it too shows above average upside. The 6'3" lefty comes from a lower slot with an unconventional delivery, providing some deception and giving his fastball tough plane to go with some run and ride. That delivery, which features heavy drop and drive and somewhat of a stabby arm action, has led to below average command to this point. Given the fact that he has made 26 starts and thrown 149 innings over his first two years in Fayetteville while showing a solid 4.17 ERA and a 199/88 strikeout to walk ratio, it hasn't held him back yet, and he has every opportunity to make further progress as he settles into his draft year. If he can fine tune his command closer to average, he has real ace upside with three potential above average to plus pitches. The fact that he won't turn 21 until the end of his first pro season will also certainly look good in the Guardians' age-friendly draft model.
What he needs to do: Smith is already touching triple digits while showing off a banger slider, and he's proven he can hold his stuff deep into starts and over a long season. At this point, only his command is holding him back from ascending to the top of the draft. Cut that 13.5% walk rate down to around 7-8% and he'll be in business.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank: #10.
The Guardians love preps, especially prep bats, but none have separated themselves into the elite tier quite yet. As it stands, Konnor Griffin is the closest. Formerly a member of the 2025 class, he was extremely old for a high school junior so he reclassified to the 2024 class so he could compete with peers his age. Standing 6'4", 205 pounds, he's already built like a grown man and has the ideal frame to tack on significant additional strength. He generates huge bat speed from the right side to produce above average power at present, and it will almost certainly grow into plus as he matures. His hit tool is a bit less consistent, as the swing can get long at times, but he takes good at bats and he has been making more and more contact as he's settled in against strong competition on the showcase circuit. Meanwhile, Griffin is an athletic beast with plus speed and a plus arm that play well in the outfield, giving him a shot to be an above average center fielder down the line. There are some similarities Benny Montgomery and Zac Veen here, though he's more polished than the former and quicker and more athletic (and more right handed) than the latter. Between his youth, projection, and ability to stick up the middle, Griffin checks a lot of boxes the Guardians look for, though they do prefer hit-over-power to power-over-hit.
What he needs to do: The only thing Griffin is missing in his profile is a consistent hit tool, so if he can come out showing less in-zone swing and miss while continuing to tap his power in games, he should absolutely be in contention for the first overall pick.

SS Caleb Bonemer, Okemos HS [MI]. My rank: #15.
I'll slip Caleb Bonemer in as the dark horse candidate. Generally considered more of a mid to back of the first round talent at this point, Bonemer likely wouldn't be under consideration for Cleveland if the draft was today, but he has a chance to hit his way there this spring a la Jackson Holliday. In fact, Bonemer is already trending hard in the right direction. Not widely known to national audiences at this time last year, he was one of the top performers on the summer showcase circuit, especially later on once he got settled in. Not huge at six feet tall, he can whip the barrel through the zone with the best of them for above average power and he should grow into plus power as he fills out. The Lansing-area native also makes plenty of contact in the zone, especially for a cold weather bat, though there are holes in his approach that were exposed a bit by advanced pitching. Still, he's getting better and better in that regard and it's the belief of most scouts that he just needs more exposure. Meanwhile, the Guardians will love his potential to stick up the middle. He's a plus runner with the athleticism and arm strength to stick at shortstop, though if he slows down at all he may be forced to third base, especially in a Cleveland system that always seems to be flush with shortstops. The upside here is that of a 25 home run, moderate on-base bat that can stick at shortstop and swipe a few bags in the process.
What he needs to do: Bonemer is farther away from the 1-1 slot than the other nine names on this list. He won't face extremely high level competition in central Michigan, but if he continues to grow into his power while controlling the strike zone a bit better, Jackson Holliday provides a nice blueprint for his ascent. Holliday was a more advanced hitter at this stage, but Bonemer is more physical and both play off the beaten path a little (Holliday played in Stillwater, Oklahoma).

Other options
RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa (#8)
OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern (#11)
OF Charlie Condon, Georgia (#12)
OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M (#14)
OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS [AR] (#17)