The 2024 draft season is upon us, and the 76-86 Cleveland Guardians own the first overall pick. Thanks to the draft lottery, with a .469 winning percentage last year, they'll be the best team ever to pick first overall by that measure. For that reason it's a great time to be a Guardians fan, as the team will have a slew of elite bats available to them in a class heavily favoring college hitters. As it turns out, the 71-91 Nationals actually won the lottery, but were ineligible to claim the first overall pick because they picked second last year. At this point, three position players seem to have separated themselves at the top of the draft in Oregon State's Travis Bazzana, West Virginia's JJ Wetherholt, and Wake Forest's Nick Kurtz. Of course, lots will change between now and July, and the gap between those three and the rest of the class is fairly slim as is. Overall, though, the top of the class is chock full of college bats, including the top six players on my current draft rankings (including one two-way player). The top of the high school class is a bit light for now, but that will also likely change between now and July.
The Guardians have shown a very clear draft strategy for a while now, especially in their position players. When it comes to position players, they love three things – youth, a polished hit tool, and the ability to stick up the middle. Fortunately for them, in this year's class, there are a ton of bats that fit those qualifications. Let's break down ten early candidates heading into the season.
2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State. My rank: #1.
Travis Bazzana isn't quite as young as the Guardians typically like, set to turn 22 before the end of his first pro season this upcoming summer, but I would take a long, long look at him if I were them. The Australian slugger broke out in 2023 by slashing .374/.500/.622 with eleven home runs as a sophomore at Oregon State, then continued his white hot hitting against elite pitching on the Cape with a .382/.474/.576 line over 36 games. An extraordinarily disciplined hitter, he walked more than he struck out both at Oregon State and on the Cape, the latter of which is exceedingly uncommon for a slugger. Beyond his trained eye at the plate, he has strong bat to ball ability and his compact strength in his 6' frame gives him at least above average power, likely plus to the pull side. It's an extremely complete offensive profile with the potential for 20+ home runs annually alongside on-base percentages approaching .400. Beyond the bat, he's a plus runner who stole 52 bases in 59 attempts (88% success) in 97 games combined between OSU and the Cape this year. Defensively, he fits Cleveland's up the middle preference with bouncy, athletic actions on the dirt that will make him a strong defender at second base. There's some potential at shortstop, though his average arm is a touch light for the position.
What he needs to do: Keep hitting, plain and simple. Bazzana already ranks first on my list, albeit by a slim margin. His speed and defense give him a leg up on some of the other early 1-1 candidates, so continuing to hit at a high level gives him every chance to hear his name first.
2B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia. My rank: #2.
JJ Wetherholt brings a very similar profile to Travis Bazzana. He's coming off an absurd sophomore season in which he hit .449/.517/.787 with 16 home runs for West Virginia, then raked both with the US Collegiate National Team (.263/.481/.579) and on the Cape (.321/.406/.571). Similar to Bazzana, he's on the older side and will turn 22 right around the end of his first pro season, but also like Bazzana, the bat is so loud that he'll be hard to ignore. Personally, I set Bazzana slightly ahead because he's a bit more explosive as an athlete and a bit more disciplined at the plate, but Wetherholt is every bit the ballplayer that Bazzana is. The pure bat to ball here is absolutely elite, some of the best not just in this class but in the past several classes. In fact, he struck out just once in 32 plate appearances against elite pitching on the Cape, and this is despite running moderately high chase rates. Wetherholt can simply get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it's pitched. While he's not physically imposing at 5'11", that elite feel for the barrel helps his average raw power play way up in games with a barrage of extra base hits and the ability to sneak the ball out to all fields. An above average runner, the Pittsburgh-area product has strong instincts on the bases to help the speed play as plus in terms of its ability to impact games. The speed gives him nice range at second base, though he doesn't quite have the arm or explosive athleticism required to play shortstop in pro ball.
What he needs to do: For me, Bazzana has a slight, slight leg up at this point due to his patience and explosiveness. However, Wetherholt did have a better season statistically than Bazzana did last year and if both repeat their 2023 numbers, it would be hard to bet against Wetherholt. Dropping his chase rate just a touch while proving his defense at second base would likely make him the favorite to go 1-1.
1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest. My rank: #3.
Nick Kurtz doesn't exactly fit the Guardians' archetype as a power hitting first baseman, and if the draft were today, I think Cleveland would be choosing between JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana. However, Kurtz brings the most potent bat in the entire class, bar none, and any minor steps back from Wetherholt or Bazzana could push Kurtz straight to the top of the pack. He's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he slashed .353/.527/.784 with 24 home runs, and that .527 on-base percentage was the tops among all underclassmen nationwide, just ahead of second place Wetherholt (.517). In Kurtz, we're talking massive power. Standing 6'5" and weighing in at 235 pounds, he uses that big frame to generate effortless power from the left side, just dropping his hands to the ball, whipping the bat through the zone, and sending it out to parking lots in all directions. Not just a slugger, Kurtz pairs that plus-plus raw power with an extremely polished hit tool. He rarely chases and draws a ton of walks, and when pitchers come in the zone, his swing is plenty adjustable to be able to reach balls in all quadrants and do damage. You really have to execute your game plan to perfection, then find some luck on top of that, to get him out. Pitchers did so less than half the time last year. The vast majority of Kurtz's value is tied to his bat, but the Lancaster, Pennsylvania native is more agile than you'd think for a kid that big and plays a very fine first base. Overall, he could become a 40 home run bat with high on-base percentages at peak, giving the Guardians a brand new Jim Thome.
What he needs to do: I don't think there's much he can do necessarily. Kurtz is already the best hitter in the draft, and there's a good chance he still is come July. Many teams, especially the Guardians, will look for any excuse to avoid a first baseman at the top of the draft, so his best hope is likely if Bazzana and Wetherholt fail to take the next step forward in 2024. This is absolutely not a criticism of Kurtz, but more the reality of how the Guardians and other teams view players this far down the defensive spectrum.
1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
This is the most fun profile at the top of the draft. It's natural to think of Shohei Ohtani when evaluating two-way players, but I really think that comp carries some weight here. Listed at 6'5", 245 pounds, Jac Caglianone is an absolute beast of a man with the ability to channel his immense size and strength into impact on both sides of the ball. He slashed .323/.389/.738 as a sophomore while setting the single season BBCOR era (since 2011) home run record at 33, carrying Florida to the College World Series Finals against LSU. The raw power here is frankly unbelievable. Caglianone has long, strong arms and legs and unleashes them for absolutely towering home runs at an extraordinarily high frequency – he homered more than once every ten plate appearances in 2023. His hand-eye coordination is also extremely impressive for such a tall, young kid. At this point, his approach is extremely raw and will need to be refined in pro ball. The Tampa native employs a heavy pull-oriented approach, allowing him to wallop baseballs into parking lots in right field, and his strength also enables his mishits to go land beyond the left field fence. He's also extremely aggressive, walking at just a 5.3% clip last year and running a slightly elevated 18.2% strikeout rate. He'll have to clean that up if he wants to handle pro pitching, as he's limited to first base with below average speed and the pressure will be on his bat. "CagliOhtani" is equally impressive on the mound, having posted a 4.34 ERA and an 87/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings this past season. The lefty can run his fastball into triple digits with some run and ride, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. His power slider gets into the upper 80's and he can morph it into a bit of a cutter, while his changeup gets nice fade to round out a four pitch mix. At this point, he struggles to repeat his crossfire delivery and that led to a 16% walk rate. Caglianone was very inconsistent in 2023, his first year pitching at the collegiate level, and has not shown the ability to hit spots with any repeatability. Overall, we're talking about the highest upside in the entire draft, upside which will come into focus once he focuses on one or the other.
What he needs to do: For Caglianone, it's pretty clear. As a hitter, he'll need to clean up his approach, plain and simple. That means using the whole field with intention and laying off breaking balls out of the zone. On the mound, he'll need to show a cleaner delivery and take a step forward with one of his secondary pitches. If he can finish that to-do list on one side of the ball or the other, I'd give him a long look at 1-1.
SS Seaver King, Wake Forest. My rank: #5.
Seaver King fits the Guardians' profile to a tee. He spent the last two years at Division II Wingate, but mashed to the tune of a .408/.453/.695 line with eleven home runs in 2023 and it became clear he did not belong at the level. Challenged with a stint in the Cape Cod League, representing a massive jump in competition for him, he passed with flying colors by slashing .424/.479/.542 in 16 games, thrusting himself into the first round picture just like that. This profile is driven by bat to ball. King has elite hand-eye coordination, covering the entire plate exceptionally well to the point where he almost never swings through a hittable pitch. Even after jumping from DII to Cape Cod League pitching, he ran just a 12.9% strikeout rate at the latter. At present, he's a very aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact on balls out of the zone as well, so he rarely walks, though in the small sample his walk rate jumped from 7.3% at Wingate to 10% on the Cape. It will be very interesting to see how King's approach develops at Wake Forest, where he'll face stronger pitching with better scouting reports and won't be able to get away with chasing as often as he does. The Athens, Georgia native is not overly physical at a listed 6', 190 pounds, but he shows a very quick bat from the right side and shows some sneaky power, especially to the pull side. His present approach, which seems unlikely to change, is more geared towards lashing hard line drives to all fields so he likely tops out around 15-20 home runs per season. Beyond the bat, King is a plus runner with nice range on the infield, and with an arm a tick better than that of Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt, he has a better shot to play shortstop at the big league level.
What he needs to do: King is transferring up from Division II to the ACC. He'll need to control the strike zone a little bit better against better stuff, and an uptick to fringe average or average power would be nice as well. If he can continue hitting like he did on the Cape, getting on base at a high clip while showing some power, it will be hard for Cleveland to pass up a potential high average, speedy shortstop.
OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina. My rank: #6.
So far, every player on this list is coming off a monster season, but Vance Honeycutt isn't quite in the same boat. He took the ACC by storm with a strong freshman season in 2022, but regressed to slash just .257/.418/.492 with 12 home runs as a sophomore in 2023. However, he has as much upside as any player in this class and could easily swing his way to the first overall selection if everything comes together. Ideally built with an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame, he's plenty strong already and figures to get even stronger as he fills out. Honeycutt employs a lightning quick right handed swing and shows the ability to elevate with authority, helping him project for plus power in pro ball. He also employs a very selective approach and forces pitchers to come to him, though his pure feel for the barrel leaves some to desired and represents the biggest hole in his game. The North Carolina native really shored up his approach in 2023 but didn't hit for nearly as much impact, watching his slugging percentage drop from .672 to .492. A plus runner, he is a fearless defender in center field who made numerous highlight reel catches at the wall last year. Between his speed, his polish in the grass, and his plus arm, he has a shot to contend for Gold Gloves in center field.
What he needs to do: The road for Honeycutt is clear. He needs to find a way to make more contact in the zone while maintaining his power, which can be a tricky task. If he can do that, though, he has All Star upside as a Gold Glove center fielder who hits for power and steals bases at a high clip.
RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #7.
At this point last year, Chase Dollander was the consensus top pitching prospect in the country. This year, no single pitcher has separated himself from the pack, and there is a group of three to four college arms that all find themselves more or less in the same tier. Chase Burns has the slightest of edges in that group right now, and I also think he's the most likely to both earn his way to the top and also fit in with Cleveland's plans. Burns was a big name prospect coming out of the Nashville area in 2021, but made it to campus at Tennessee and made an immediate impact, putting up a 3.54 ERA and a 217/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings during his two seasons in Knoxville. Transferring across the Smokies to Wake Forest, he could take another step forward in the program's famous pitching lab that has given us first rounders Rhett Lowder, Jared Shuster, and Ryan Cusick among many other success stories. While Burns is power over polish, he's steadily improving in the latter department and would fit well in Cleveland. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and regularly reaches triple digits, enough to blow hitters away even when he doesn't locate it precisely. The real story here is an absolute banger of a slider, which peaks its head into the low 90's with nasty late bite to make hitters look just straight up silly. Mostly just a fastball/slider guy for now, he's beginning to incorporate his curveball and changeup into his arsenal more and I expect those to take a larger role now in the Wake system. The 6'4" righty smoothed out his delivery nicely at Tennessee since looking a bit relieverish as a high schooler, and the result has been a consistent barrage of strikes. He's a bit lacking when it comes to in-zone command, but when your fastball touches triple digits and your slider sits around 90, just getting it in the zone is often good enough. Anybody who throws as hard as he does is always an injury question mark, though he otherwise appears durable.
What he needs to do: The fastball and slider are there. Now, he needs to show he can effectively work deeper into his arsenal by incorporating that curveball and changeup. Burns also needs to fine tune his command a bit to land in Cleveland, as pounding the strike zone like he does will be enough to get him to the big leagues but better in-zone command will make him an ace.
LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #9.
Hagen Smith, like Chase Burns, was a well-known prep coming out of the East Texas high school ranks in 2021 and made it to campus in the SEC, and now he joins Burns in that top tier of arms in 2024. While he hasn't quite put it all together yet, he has turned in two very solid seasons in the Razorbacks rotation and brings some of the loudest upside in the class to 2024. The fastball has been steadily ticking up for a while now, typically parking in the low to mid 90's last spring and reportedly reaching triple digits in the fall. He's still learning to harness his slider, but his best ones have late, nasty, two-plane bite that makes it easy to project as a plus pitch. Similarly, Smith's splitter is a bit less consistent than his slider, but it too shows above average upside. The 6'3" lefty comes from a lower slot with an unconventional delivery, providing some deception and giving his fastball tough plane to go with some run and ride. That delivery, which features heavy drop and drive and somewhat of a stabby arm action, has led to below average command to this point. Given the fact that he has made 26 starts and thrown 149 innings over his first two years in Fayetteville while showing a solid 4.17 ERA and a 199/88 strikeout to walk ratio, it hasn't held him back yet, and he has every opportunity to make further progress as he settles into his draft year. If he can fine tune his command closer to average, he has real ace upside with three potential above average to plus pitches. The fact that he won't turn 21 until the end of his first pro season will also certainly look good in the Guardians' age-friendly draft model.
What he needs to do: Smith is already touching triple digits while showing off a banger slider, and he's proven he can hold his stuff deep into starts and over a long season. At this point, only his command is holding him back from ascending to the top of the draft. Cut that 13.5% walk rate down to around 7-8% and he'll be in business.
OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank: #10.
The Guardians love preps, especially prep bats, but none have separated themselves into the elite tier quite yet. As it stands, Konnor Griffin is the closest. Formerly a member of the 2025 class, he was extremely old for a high school junior so he reclassified to the 2024 class so he could compete with peers his age. Standing 6'4", 205 pounds, he's already built like a grown man and has the ideal frame to tack on significant additional strength. He generates huge bat speed from the right side to produce above average power at present, and it will almost certainly grow into plus as he matures. His hit tool is a bit less consistent, as the swing can get long at times, but he takes good at bats and he has been making more and more contact as he's settled in against strong competition on the showcase circuit. Meanwhile, Griffin is an athletic beast with plus speed and a plus arm that play well in the outfield, giving him a shot to be an above average center fielder down the line. There are some similarities Benny Montgomery and Zac Veen here, though he's more polished than the former and quicker and more athletic (and more right handed) than the latter. Between his youth, projection, and ability to stick up the middle, Griffin checks a lot of boxes the Guardians look for, though they do prefer hit-over-power to power-over-hit.
What he needs to do: The only thing Griffin is missing in his profile is a consistent hit tool, so if he can come out showing less in-zone swing and miss while continuing to tap his power in games, he should absolutely be in contention for the first overall pick.
SS Caleb Bonemer, Okemos HS [MI]. My rank: #15.
I'll slip Caleb Bonemer in as the dark horse candidate. Generally considered more of a mid to back of the first round talent at this point, Bonemer likely wouldn't be under consideration for Cleveland if the draft was today, but he has a chance to hit his way there this spring a la Jackson Holliday. In fact, Bonemer is already trending hard in the right direction. Not widely known to national audiences at this time last year, he was one of the top performers on the summer showcase circuit, especially later on once he got settled in. Not huge at six feet tall, he can whip the barrel through the zone with the best of them for above average power and he should grow into plus power as he fills out. The Lansing-area native also makes plenty of contact in the zone, especially for a cold weather bat, though there are holes in his approach that were exposed a bit by advanced pitching. Still, he's getting better and better in that regard and it's the belief of most scouts that he just needs more exposure. Meanwhile, the Guardians will love his potential to stick up the middle. He's a plus runner with the athleticism and arm strength to stick at shortstop, though if he slows down at all he may be forced to third base, especially in a Cleveland system that always seems to be flush with shortstops. The upside here is that of a 25 home run, moderate on-base bat that can stick at shortstop and swipe a few bags in the process.
What he needs to do: Bonemer is farther away from the 1-1 slot than the other nine names on this list. He won't face extremely high level competition in central Michigan, but if he continues to grow into his power while controlling the strike zone a bit better, Jackson Holliday provides a nice blueprint for his ascent. Holliday was a more advanced hitter at this stage, but Bonemer is more physical and both play off the beaten path a little (Holliday played in Stillwater, Oklahoma).
Other options
RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa (#8)
OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern (#11)
OF Charlie Condon, Georgia (#12)
OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M (#14)
OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS [AR] (#17)
No comments:
Post a Comment