2021 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals system was absolutely barren at the time of the draft, with most affiliate lineups filled with light hitting 24 year olds and pitching staffs looking similar. This represented what ended up being the start of their rebuild, injecting a couple of really interesting high school bats right at the top. From there, the Nationals focused a little more on providing new base of low risk guys to just balance out the system a bit, with the rest of the class (aside from fifth rounder TJ White) lacking much upside as a result. I loved the Brady House pick at the beginning and can get behind the Daylen Lile pick, but honestly I'm not thrilled with the rest of the class and I think the Nationals went too conservative to just try to find some sure-thing, utility/relief options to bring the system up a bit. Outside of House and Lile, I think the pick I'm most interested in is eighth rounder Will Frizzell.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-11: SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]. My rank: #4.
I'll be honest, I thought Mike Rizzo was going to mess this pick up. The Nationals had been linked to Ty Madden all spring long, and if not him, it seemed like they would go for an arm like Sam Bachman, Jackson Jobe, or Andrew Painter. Bachman and Jobe were off the board at this point, but surprisingly, potential top five picks Brady House and Kahlil Watson were still available, as were two guys who in my opinion were the second and third best college bats in the class, Sal Frelick and Matt McLain. I had my sights set on one of those four, with House my #1, but was still incredibly nervous that Rizzo would go a different route. When I heard House's name announced, I literally leapt off my couch, so it's safe to say I like this pick. House ranked fourth on my board because he's a freak of nature, one of the most physically gifted players in the class who also happens to be really, really good at baseball. He shows tremendous raw power from the right side that has earned some 70 grades (plus-plus), power that he has tapped consistently in games. He's been one of the most famous names in the class for a while now and started to suffer from some prospect fatigue at this time last year, when he also happened to be underperforming just a bit during 2020 summer showcase circuit. Those questions were answered come October, when he put on a show at the WWBA showcase, and again this spring when he picked up two hits off one of the top arms in the 2022 class, Dylan Lesko. The Georgian from between Atlanta and Athens has a simple swing that is a bit more geared for line drives right now, but he's so strong, so athletic, and just has such great feel for the game that I'm very confident he'll continue to pull it all together in pro ball, where he has a chance to hit 30+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages. Over on defense, he's played shortstop to this point and is athletic enough to be a fringe-average defender there, but his ultimate home will likely be third base as he continues to fill out. An absolute cannon of an arm will be an asset there, and he'll have plenty enough range to handle shifting. To put the last cherry on top, he's young for the class and only turned 18 in June, giving him extra time to fulfill his lofty expectations. Committed to Tennessee, House signed for $5 million, which was roughly $450,000 above slot value.

2-47: OF Daylen Lile, Trinity HS [KY]. My rank: #53.
This is a very interesting hitter for the Nationals, one who has a pretty clear development path ahead of him. We had an extremely strong, deep class of high school hitters this year, but Daylen Lile still stands out for his exceptional feel for hitting at a very young age. He's a professional hitter that always has a game plan at the plate, handling high velocity and advanced offspeed stuff better than most his age and looking to have a pretty easy transition to pro baseball. Lile has a pretty left handed swing that gets nice loft and leverage on the ball, and he gets that A swing off consistently. For now, he's not a power hitter, but the Nationals are banking on him becoming one. This is a case of a player whose game power will likely match his raw power because of his ability to tap it, so even if the raw power is a 45 right now (fringe-average), it plays up in games. As he gets stronger in Washington's development system, it should tick up to at least average, with the hope being he bulks up enough to get to above average. Wherever he does get, he'll tap it in games. I've seen some Michael Brantley comps on Lile, and that seems fitting to me. Lile likely profiles for 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, with the potential for 20+ if he reaches his ceiling. The Louisville native is an unremarkable defender in the outfield who gets the job done in a corner but won't provide any excess value. Because of that, the pressure will be not only on his bat, but his ability to get to at least average power. There's the danger of a tweener profile who doesn't hit for enough power to profile at left or right field but doesn't run well enough for center field, but I don't think that will happen here. I can see a prototypical #5 hitter, with another comp in terms of production at the plate being a shorter, left handed Jayson Werth. Committed to Louisville, Lile signed for $1.75 million, which was roughly $170,000 above slot value.

3-82: OF Branden Boissiere, Arizona. My rank: #233.
I'm not here to be negative, especially when discussing the biggest day of a young man's life so far, but if you look at the ranking there's no hiding the fact that I didn't like this pick. I will, however, find reasons to be positive anyways. You can compare this pick to last year's Cardinals 70th overall pick Alec Burleson, who had a similar profile at East Carolina but found his power stroke in pro ball and is slashing .293/.343/.497 with 18 home runs through 81 games across three levels this year. Branden Boissiere has an excellent track record of hitting at Arizona, slashing .355/.434/.488 for his career and hitting a best-ever .369/.451/.506 with five home runs and a 49/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games this season. Boissiere works counts well and doesn't swing and miss much, enabling him to post very consistent numbers against his tough Pac-12 schedules and seemingly always be on base right in the middle of that talented Arizona lineup. He has a loose swing from the left side, but to this point he has not shown much power, even though he played his home games at high elevation Hi Corbett Field in Tucson. That's a bit of a tough projection considering he won't provide much value defensively, but again, we can look to Burleson's example that guys can find their power stroke in pro ball. The Southern California native has played first base for Arizona, though the Nationals interestingly drafted him as an outfielder and could try him in left field. As is, he profiles as a platoon player or bench bat, which to me is pretty lame at #82 overall, but if he can add even half a grade of power, his feel for hitting could help him play every day. Boissiere signed for $600,000, which was $144,200 below slot value.

4-112: RHP Dustin Saenz, Texas A&M. Unranked.
I was aware of Dustin Saenz before the draft, but there's always going to be an inevitable "next group" of guys you would have dove into with more time or bandwidth and he was there. As with third rounder Branden Boissiere, he's more of a high floor pick that should contribute to the big league team in some capacity than a high ceiling pick looking to become a star. He was overshadowed by bigger names earlier in his Texas A&M career, pitching on a staff that included first rounder Asa Lacy and second rounders Christian Roa and John Doxakis, among others, and early in this season he was probably the third best prospect on the Aggie staff behind Jonathan Childress and Bryce Miller. As it turns out, he beat Miller by one spot to be the first Aggie drafted after posting a 4.27 ERA and a 104/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 84.1 innings. Saenz comes in with a low 90's fastball that can get up to 95, playing up due to good running life. His main offspeed is an above average slider, and he works between those two pitches very effectively throughout the game. The 5'11" lefty fills up the strike zone and keeps himself in good counts, though he's a bit undersized. A full time starter for the first time this spring, he struggled with consistency start to start and didn't always look crisp, with his stuff flattening out when he wasn't and leading to traffic on the basepaths. If Saenz wants to start long term, he'll need to get more comfortable with taking the ball every five days and bringing his A game or at least his B game every time, and he'll also need to work more on what's mostly a fringe-average changeup for now. He's also back after being eligible last year, so he turned 22 in June and will want to figure that out quickly. Otherwise, he profiles as a long reliever. The Corpus Christi native is joining a growing contingent of young Nationals from South and Central Texas, including Tres Barrera (Mission), Kyle Finnegan (Houston), Seth Romero (West Columbia), the newly acquired Mason Thompson (Round Rock), and ninth rounder Cole Quintanilla (Cedar Park), and as a Nationals fan who plans on moving to the region next year (Boerne), I like that. Saenz signed for $500,000, which was $17,400 below slot value.

5-143: OF TJ White, Dorman HS [SC]. Unranked.
The Nationals made TJ White their third prep bat in five picks, rounding out their upside plays. White is a switch hitter with huge raw power and a ton of strength, with a very well built, 6'2", 210 pound frame. He's hit some impressive home runs from both sides of the plate both in batting practice and in showcase action, giving plenty of excitement for his future as he continues to add strength and learn to channel it more consistently. The hit tool is fringy for now, but he's trending up in that regard and is making more and more contact. The Upstate South Carolina native won't bring much value on defense, as he's a below average runner who will be limited to a corner outfield spot or first base, but the Nationals are very clearly buying his bat. Also working in his favor is age, as he didn't turn 18 until after the draft and has plenty of time to develop. There's a pretty wide gap between ceiling and floor here, which is usually to be expected for any high schooler signing for fewer than seven figures. White signed away from an Indiana commitment for $400,000, which was $17,300 above slot value.

6-173: LHP Michael Kirian, Louisville. Unranked.
Michael Kirian was eligible last year, when he was coming off a two year stretch with a 1.41 ERA and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings, but didn't quite crack it in the five round draft. Had it gone to six or seven rounds, he might have been drafted. At the time, he was a reliever touching 95-96 with a good curveball with big depth, but college relievers don't have a great track record and he was looking forward to boosting his stock with a successful transition to the rotation in 2021. He was strong to start off the season, including striking out thirteen against North Carolina State in mid-March, but eventually lost his rotation spot after allowing 25 runs over four starts in May. The northern Ohio native ended the season with a 4.80 ERA and a 75/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 69.1 innings, looking better in his five relief appearances than in his eleven starts. As a starter, he was more low 90's with his fastball and dipped into the upper 80's a few times, and while he broke out a new slider, it could blend into his curveball at times. The 6'6" lefty also shows a fringe-average changeup as a starter, and he hides the ball well with a crossfire delivery that puts tough angle on the ball while generally staying around the strike zone. Having turned 22 in February, I think it's more likely that he stays a reliever in pro ball rather than trying to work his way back into the rotation, though the Nationals are light on starting pitching prospects (as they are with most positions) and could give him a shot. In pro ball, he profiles as a long reliever more likely unless the Nationals help him hold his stuff more consistently. Kirian signed for $200,000, which was $89,000 below slot value.

7-203: OF Jacob Young, Florida. Unranked.
Jacob Young has been a steady performer at Florida, hitting .330/.400/.447 with eight home runs and a 79/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games in his three year career. He shows great feel for hitting from the right side, enabling him to make consistent hard contact against a tough SEC schedule and rarely slump while doing it. Young does a good job of using the whole field and sprays line drives from gap to gap, then when you make a mistake over the plate in a hitters' count, he can punish you with some sneaky power, though it's definitely below average and likely always will be. He's manned left field at Florida in deference to Jud Fabian and also played a little second base, but his feel for the outfield could enable him to move back to center field in pro ball, where his bat will profile much better. If he shows he can handle center on a full time basis, he has a chance to be a light hitting regular in the mold of what Victor Robles is now (minus the elite defense), though his more likely outlook is that of a fourth or fifth outfielder that moves around the diamond in the mold of Rafael Bautista with less speed. He signed for $275,000, which was $49,200 above slot value.

8-233: 1B Will Frizzell, Texas A&M. Unranked.
It was a disappointing season in College Station, with the Aggies finishing last in the SEC West and head coach Rob Childress losing his job at the end. The biggest bright spot on the team, even bigger than Nationals fourth rounder Dustin Saenz, was first baseman Will Frizzell as he hit .343/.451/.686 with 19 home runs and a 43/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. Frizzell brings an SEC battle-tested power bat that's actually one of the more well-rounded in the class. In fact, I actually like him a bit better than third rounder Branden Boissiere. The Dallas-Forth Worth product produces high exit velocities from a whippy left handed swing and a strong 6'3" frame, and he's able to tap it consistently against good pitching because he shows a strong eye at the plate and good barrel control. All of his value will come from his bat because he's a well below average runner that is a bit choppy even at first base, and if Boissiere hits enough to play full time, it would force Frizzell to a DH role that will likely be there within the next few years. Additionally, Frizzell turned 22 in February, which takes away just a touch from his SEC numbers this year. I still would bet on him over Boissiere as our long term first baseman, with the potential to club 20-25 home runs or more with decent on-base percentages at his ceiling. He signed for slot value at $179,800.

9-263: RHP Cole Quintanilla, Texas. Unranked.
Staying in the Lone Star State, this isn't the Longhorn arm many thought the Nationals would bring in with their first pick, but Cole Quintanilla has a chance to be an interesting one for them. He had a breakout year for Texas this spring, posting a 1.35 ERA and a 42/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings out of the bullpen. The huge, 6'5" righty can sit in the mid 90's in short stints and touches the upper 90's, all from a very smooth delivery that's forceful but repeatable. He adds a sharp, above average slider in the low 80's that helps him miss bats, and between the two he allowed just 22 hits in those 40 innings this spring. Quintanilla shows better command than you typically see out of a power bullpen arm, and back in March/April he went seven straight appearances (9.1 innings) without issuing a free pass. He turned 22 in May and is most likely a reliever in pro ball as well, but if the Nationals want to be patient and help him learn a changeup, he does have the frame, arm strength, and delivery to start. The Austin-area native is a strong competitor who will happily handle the bright lights of the big leagues, and his final appearance of the season saw him strike out five over a season-high 3.1 innings against eventual national champion Mississippi State. He signed for $130,000, which was $26,600 below slot value.

10-293: 2B Darren Baker, California. Unranked.
By now you've probably heard that Darren Baker is the son of Dusty Baker, famous for running onto the field during the 2002 World Series when he was three years old (and before Brady House, Daylen Lile, or TJ White were born). Nearly 19 years later, Baker has established himself as a four year performer at Cal and is ready to begin his pro career. A career .302/.362/.338 hitter with 58 stolen bases over 168 games, he hit a career-best .327/.402/.354 with 28 stolen bases and a 33/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games this year. He's not the most physical player in this draft class, coming in at a rail thin 6' even, but has better feel for the game than perhaps any, which is befitting of an MLB manager's son. The Sacramento-area native rarely swing and misses and sprays line drives all over the field, never looking fazed by offspeed stuff or pitches outside the strike zone. He's a tough guy to strike out, running a 13.1% rate for his career and 12.7% in 2021. There's virtually no power here, not even sneaky ambush power, as Baker has just twenty extra base hits in his entire Cal career (which, if you remember, was 168 games) and hasn't hit a home run since he was a freshman in 2018. There is plus speed though, so he can beat you with bunt base hits and catch infielders napping. On defense, he shows excellent feel for second base with quick reactions and great coordination, and he could be an above average shortstop if he had more than fringy arm strength. He profiles as a utility infielder without a ton more ceiling than that unless he finds a way to tap at least some ambush power. Baker signed for full slot value at $146,800.

14-413: LHP Erik Tolman, Arizona State. Unranked.
It was a rough year for an Arizona State pitching staff that saw numerous arms go down with season ending injuries, including Erik Tolman. He looked sharp in the shortened 2020 season (2.50 ERA, 30/12 K/BB in 18 IP), but not quite sharp enough to warrant serious consideration in the five round draft. This year, he posted a 4.05 ERA and a 14/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.1 innings against Sacramento State, Hawai'i, and Utah, but was shut down after three starts and eventually needed Tommy John surgery. Tolman sits around 90 with his fastball, getting up into the low 90's at his best, adding a slider that he can manipulate well and a changeup he has feel to land for strikes. The command has been coming along, and given his feel to pitch it should continue to improve to at least average if not above average. The 6'2" lefty has some room to grow into his skinny frame, which is important because he's going to need a velocity boost to make it as a big league starter. Tolman was a breakout candidate for some in 2021 and the Nationals are betting that it would have happened without the surgery, and will give him an opportunity to work his way up as a back-end starter. The Southern California native signed for $125,000.

17-503: RHP Brendan Collins, UNC Greensboro. Unranked.
Brendan Collins was the Nationals' hometown pick this year, having attended Sherwood High School in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles north of Nationals Park. He began his college career at Radford, but never saw the field due to an inability to throw strikes and transferred to UNC Greensboro. This year, He did manage to find plenty of innings, finishing the season with a 5.54 ERA and an even 51/51 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings. He has a power arm that has been up to 97 and can sit in the low to mid 90's for innings at a time, though for now, that's about it. The 6'4" righty doesn't show much feel to spin the ball and will need to work hard to develop a bat missing breaking ball in the minors, and while his command has improved considerably from a flat 20 grade to more of a 30 grade, it's still well below average and needs significant refinement even to work out of the bullpen. It's a clear relief profile with little upside to start when you add in his mediocre delivery, but it's some of the better arm strength you'll find here in the 17th round the Nationals are betting on their ability to harness it. He signed for $100,000.

18-533: C Steven Williams, Auburn. Unranked.
Steven Williams has been well known among Deep South area scouts for a long time, earning signifiant draft interest out of high school and again as a junior last year, though not enough to get popped in the five round draft. However, he hasn't been able to build his stock, as it has slowly slipped ever since he hit .291/.409/.488 with 12 home runs as a true freshman in 2018. This year, it was down to .247/.356/.534 with a career-best 13 home runs and a 49/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games, and he leaves Auburn with 36 home runs over his four year career. At this point, what you see is what you get. Williams has above average raw power from the left side with a strong 6'3" frame and plenty of feel to whip the barrel through the zone. He's tapped that power consistently against good SEC pitching, and should continue to do so in pro ball. There are swing and miss concerns, as he struck out at a 23.7% rate this spring even as a 22 year old, though again, it's been against good pitching. The Albany, Georgia native is a below average runner who won't provide much value on defense, but if he can get a little more consistent with his actions behind the plate, he has a chance to profile as a bat-first backup catcher. If not, he'll probably be a power hitting fourth or fifth outfielder that can play left or right field. Williams signed for $100,000.

2021 MLB Draft: Ten early options for the Nationals at pick #11

The Nationals will pick eleventh overall in this year's draft, the highest they've picked since selecting Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon sixth overall in 2011. Rendon was the fourth in an extremely successful run of first round picks, including Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th overall, 2009), and Bryce Harper (1st overall, 2010). Since Rendon, the Nationals have not had overwhelming success in the first round, with perhaps Erick Fedde (18th overall, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th overall, 2016) being the only ones to make any kind of impact on the big league club so far. Lucas Giolito (16th overall, 2012) has become a star, but with the White Sox.

Recent first round picks:
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)
2016: SS Carter Kieboom, Walton HS, GA (28th overall)

There's a clear trend with the Nationals, a more traditional organization that likes big college pitchers and isn't afraid of a little injury history. Cavalli, Denaburg, Fedde, Giolito, and Rendon all had significant injury history when the Nationals drafted then, and Romero was healthy but saw his stock drop due to serious off-field makeup concerns. To this point, Kieboom has been a moderate success, and the jury is still out on Romero, Rutledge, and Cavalli. Meanwhile, Denaburg has been limited to just 20.1 innings with a 7.52 ERA in complex ball, and while at 21 years old he still has a chance to reclaim his prospect status, that one may end up being a bust. Now, a lot will definitely change between February and July, but heading into the spring season, here are ten names for Nationals fans to track.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
This one fits the Nationals' drafting style to a tee. First, we can look at the relatively meaningless geographic parallels, as the Houston-area native follows Houston picks Rendon, Romero, and Rutledge, and would also give the Nationals a second consecutive Big 12 arm after Cavalli. More importantly, Ty Madden is a very traditional 6'3" college righty except for a bit of a funky arm action, something I'd suspect only further endears him to an organization not afraid of injuries. Madden sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to 96-97 in games and topping out around 99 in bullpen sessions, putting fairly unique downward angle and run on the ball that makes it difficult to lift. He adds a relatively inconsistent slider that is usually at least average but can flash true plus, and his changeup has been a more stable offering for him that plays consistently above average and flashes plus as well. His command has come along nicely, walking just four of 97 batters in 2020 (a 4.1% rate, down from 13% in 2019), though the Nationals' brass will want to see him hold that command over a full season. If things break right for him and he stays healthy (or perhaps even if he doesn't), I'm sure the Nationals will take a very hard look at the potential #2 starter.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB in 75.2 IP.
Richard Fitts has a little bit more to prove than Madden, having pitched mostly out of the bullpen so far at Auburn, but he has a chance to don the Curly W as well. Another big, 6'3" righty, Fitts impressed evaluators at fall practice in 2020 and pushed his way from a second or third round projection to a legitimate first round contender. In the fall, he worked in a starting role where his fastball began consistently hitting the mid 90's, playing up due to the tough crossfire angle he puts on the ball. The Birmingham-area native adds a downer slider and an above average splitter, and he lands all three pitches for strikes consistently. He looked the part of a future mid-rotation starter in the fall, and if he can hold that profile in the spring, a traditional organization like the Nationals could pounce very early. Watch to see if his velocity and command hold.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan
2020: 3-0, 2.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 24/11 K/BB in 20 IP.
Like Fitts, Steven Hajjar has a lot to prove in 2021, but he has the chance to establish himself as a prototypical college lefty ace. Currently on the fringes of the first round conversation, Hajjar has thrown just twenty innings in his college career due to a 2019 ACL tear and the 2020 shutdown. 6'5" left handed pitchers will grab the attention of scouts traditional and progressive alike, and that's why teams love his upside. His fastball sits in the low 90's when he's on, while his slider and changeup both flash plus as well. However, we're yet to see any kind of proven consistency, especially considering the Massachusetts native's stuff was down a bit in the fall, his fastball occasionally dipping into the upper 80's and his secondary pitches flattening out. Given that, the fact that he's very young for the class (won't turn 21 until August) really helps his case, and scouts believe that his youth only adds to his upside. If Hajjar comes out this spring holding more consistent fastball velocity and taking a step forward with his command, which is presently below average, he could fly off the board. From there, it would be easy to project plus stuff and an impact starter ceiling on him.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
2019-2020: 1-0, 0.83 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 28/8 K/BB in 21.2 IP.
Jaden Hill, like Hajjar, has barely been on the mound in NCAA play, but that's about where the similarities start and end. While Hajjar is from the Boston suburbs, Hill hails from Ashdown, a small Arkansas town near Texarkana. And while Hajjar might fit more in the early second round if the draft were today, Hill is already firmly in the top ten discussion. The big, 6'4" righty is a former high school quarterback armed with a fastball that has touched the upper 90's in short stints, and his secondary pitches are well ahead of Hajjar's as well. The slider flashes double plus at its best, rendering hitters completely helpless as it dives all the way across the plate, and his changeup has long been a weapon in its own right since his high school days. He recently added a cutter as well, giving him a four pitch arsenal that makes him one of the toughest at bats in college baseball. On top of it all, he's actually proven to be a solid strike thrower, something that usually isn't the case with that kind of elite stuff. Of course, the injury issues are the biggest concern here, as elbow soreness and collarbone surgery (stemming from a high school football injury) kept him off the mound for much of 2019 and the shutdown stopped him in 2020. For that reason, he has not been able to prove his stuff or command can hold over a full season, and it gives him a wide range of outcomes. If Hill comes out and stays healthy for a full season, with his stuff looking as sharp in June as it did in February, there is no chance he makes it to the Nationals at pick #11 – he could legitimately be gone in the first five picks in that case. If his stuff dips early in the season and doesn't come back, then the Nationals might pass on him. But if the stuff stays sharp and he deals with continued nagging injuries, he could perfectly fit the Nationals' draft strategy of targeting high upside starting pitchers with injury concerns. In fact, it really wouldn't be too dissimilar a pick to Cavalli last year.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
As far as traditional bats go, Matt McLain is right at the top of the list. A first round pick out of a Los Angeles-area high school in 2018, McLain didn't sign with the Diamondbacks and instead headed to UCLA, where he struggled to a .203/.276/.355 line as a freshman. However, his stock has since recovered and more, with a hot start to the 2020 season (.397/.422/.621) and an even hotter run through summer ball (.436/.536/.773). McLain is a bit undersized at 5'11", but has exceptional feel for the barrel that enables him to spray line drives around the field and could end up giving him 15-20 home run power in time. Though he makes very easy contact most of the time, he can expand the zone against breaking balls and that leads to some minor strikeout concerns. Unless he makes a dramatic shift in his aggressive approach, McLain will likely never draw a ton of walks, but he should hit for a high enough batting average to put up strong on-base percentages. A premium athlete, his plus speed helps him on both sides of the ball and should keep him at shortstop in the long run. Improved plate discipline in 2021 could have him off the board before the Nationals have a chance to make a selection, but his present profile fits right into the Nationals' drafting philosophy.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville
2019-2020: 14 HR, .286/.376/.596, 3 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 61 games.
If the Nationals decide to go with a college bat, Alex Binelas makes just as much sense as Matt McLain. While he wasn't nearly as famous as McLain at Oak Creek High School in the Milwaukee suburbs, his massive freshman season (14 HR, .291/.383/.612) rocketed him into the national spotlight, but a hand injury in the second game of his sophomore season means that freshman season is all we have to go off of. Binelas brings a lightning quick left handed swing that produces plus raw and game power, sending balls over the fence or to the gaps with consistent triple digit exit velocities. Despite its explosiveness, that swing can get choppy at times, leading to some swing and miss (19.8% K rate as a freshman). It's not a major concern at this point considering he was a freshman in the ACC, but it's something he'll have to cut down on in his junior year, especially in conference play. If he does, he might already be off the board before the Nationals pick at #11, but positional questions could work in Washington's favor if they cause him to slip a little. A third baseman at Louisville, his cannon arm gives him a chance to stick over there, but he's a somewhat choppy defender and might be stretched in the shifting era. The upside in his bat is so great that teams in the top ten picks might be willing to risk a move to first base, but continued swing and miss questions could keep him around for the Nats.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
Another traditional bat for the Nationals to consider is Colton Cowser, who was actually teammates with Ty Madden at Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs (in addition to top 2019 picks JJ Goss and Matthew Thompson). Cowser might have been the fourth best prospect on that team when he graduated, but he had a massive freshman season (.361/.450/.602) and landed on the US Collegiate National Team. Despite an unspectacular sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), he remains one of the top bats in the college class with premium leadoff potential. Cowser is a true plus hitter, showing a combination of excellent knowledge of the strike zone with excellent bat to ball skills, which he proved with the US CNT. For now, his swing is geared more for line drives than fly balls, but evaluators see his athletic 6'3" frame and think that he could grow into average power, perhaps more if he starts trying to lift the ball. With plus speed and the ability to stick in center field, he may not need to do so in order to become an impact player at the big league level. If Cowser hits in 2021 like he did in 2019, he could fit right in with the Nationals at pick #11.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
We've hammered home the point that the Nationals are traditional and love pitching, and Andrew Painter fits that to a tee. The Fort Lauderdale native has an extremely projectable 6'6" frame with a full, well rounded arsenal that he can command. Painter's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, topping out around 95-96 without much effort, but promising more as he fills out his frame. He spins a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, both of which are consistently at least average while flashing above average regularly. With an above average changeup as well, Painter can attack you in a variety of ways. His extremely easy delivery enables him to hit spots as well as anyone in the high school class, and it also raises his floor considerably. Many scouts have likened him to Mick Abel, the first high school pitcher taken in 2020, who lasted until the Phillies at pick #15. It would probably take Painter stepping forward with one of his breaking balls to get the Nationals to bite on him over a guy like Madden or McLain, but if he does, he has as good a chance to land in Washington as anywhere else. The one thing that might hold the Nationals back is Mason Denaburg, their most recent first round high school pitcher, who has struggled to stay healthy since going 27th overall in 2018. Painter won't come cheap, either, holding a commitment to Florida.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]
Right now, Painter is the top high school pitcher in the country, but a lot can change before July. Jackson Jobe was known as more of a hitter a year ago, but a loud summer rocketed him into the first round as a right handed pitcher. The 6'2" convert to pitching already sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 95-96 just like Painter, but his secondary pitches are ahead of his counterpart. His slider is one of the best breaking balls in the class, coming in with immense spin rates and tight, late bite. His curveball and changeup both flash above average as well, and he's an athletic kid that fills up the strike zone. Given that he's still new to pitching, Jobe could continue to rise with a strong spring and more consistency, with the potential to become a legitimate big league starting pitcher. If he does, the Nationals could bite as early as pick #11, though one drawback is age, with the Oklahoma City native set to turn 19 in July. Committed to Ole Miss, he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore, which could raise his asking price further.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]
We'll round it out with the most famous name in the prep class, shortstop Brady House. Scouts have been excitedly waiting for the Georgian to become draft eligible, as he brings a long track record of hitting against premium pitching. However, House's 2020 summer was just a bit more inconsistent than some scouts had hoped for, and a combination of that and prospect fatigue have allowed Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer, and perhaps even James Wood to overtake him in the prep bat rankings. Still, House brings a lot to the table. He shows easy plus raw power from the right side, power which he tapped consistently in games going back to when he was an underclassman. At times in 2020, his swing got out of whack as he tried to show off his pop and it came at the expense of his hit tool. The pure hitting ability is there if House trusts himself, and if he proves his summer was just a little blip, he might be gone before the Nationals pick. House is also a solid athlete with a chance to stick at shortstop with some hard work, but most scouts see him sliding over to third base and focusing on his big bat. Additionally, with a June birthday, he's relatively young for the class. Hailing from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, House has a commitment to Tennessee in hand, so if he slips too far past the Nationals with an uneven senior season, he could pull a Dylan Crews and head to school.

A few other possibilities
RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi
RHP Mason Black, Lehigh
OF Jud Fabian, Florida
SS Khalil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC]
OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]

2021 MLB Draft: Ten preseason picks for first overall

Some years, you have a clear first overall pick. Going back, that was the case in the past three drafts, when we saw Auburn's Casey Mize, Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, and Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson cruise to the 1-1 slot. As we head into the 2021 season, we have a frontrunner in Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but he's far from a slam dunk and there are numerous players that could catch him. A lot can and will change between now and July 11th, but for now, here are ten names with a chance to land in Pittsburgh at first overall.

The Frontrunner: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
One of the top recruits to make it to campus in 2018, Kumar Rocker has only elevated his profile in the time since. Through 27 appearances (19 starts), he has 14-6 with a 3.06 ERA and a 142/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings against Vanderbilt's tough schedule, including a nineteen strikeout no-hitter of Duke in the 2019 Nashville Super Regional. The Georgian is an imposing figure at a listed 6'4", 255 pounds, and he brings the stuff to match. Rocker's fastball sits in the mid 90's and touches 99, and he adds in a plus-plus slider with devastating late bite and a well above average changeup with great sink. His command isn't pinpoint, but he fills up the strike zone consistently. His delivery has a few extra moving parts, but it's fluid and he repeats it extremely well. At this point, Rocker emphatically checks all the boxes you want to see at the top of the draft: high-end velocity, a true putaway pitch, a third potential plus pitch, durability, and track record. If we want to nitpick, which you have to at the top of the draft, he doesn't get a ton of swings and misses on his fastball and could be susceptible to the long ball in the majors.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Rocker is in the driver's seat, so he mostly needs to just maintain. That means staying healthy (obviously), continuing to fill up the strike zone, and continuing to miss bats at the ridiculous pace he has in the past. If he wants to truly separate from the pack, getting more whiffs on that fastball would be nice, as would advancing his command (ability to hit spots) to above average to match that above average control (ability to throw strikes).

Quietly Dominant: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt
Though Kumar Rocker is currently the favorite to go first overall, there are some who think he's the second best pitcher on his own team. Jack Leiter, like Rocker, arrived on campus as one of the top recruits in the country, and he turned heads by firing five innings of one hit ball against Evansville in his first college game. However, because he was a full year older than his graduating class, he's eligible as a sophomore and will turn 21 in April. While Rocker stands out for his stuff while showing strong pitchability, Leiter is the opposite in that he stands out for his pitchability while also showing strong stuff. On the shorter side at six feet tall, his fastball sits in the low 90's but plays up due to his elite ability to release the ball out front, giving him a combination of great extension and a very low (i.e. good) release height. He flips in a curveball in the 70's that already has the depth, and it could be a plus pitch if he continues to put more power behind it. There's a relatively new slider that flashes above average and could be plus in time, while his changeup plays average. Combine that with above average command and plus overall feel for pitching, and you have the building blocks of a big league starter who will stick around for a long time.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Leiter does have some work. Since he didn't graduate high school until he was well past his 19th birthday, he's only gotten to throw 15.2 innings in college so far. While nobody doubts his ability, he has to go out and prove it against Vanderbilt's SEC schedule. Leiter's lack of elite velocity (both on his fastball and his secondaries) might also turn off some evaluators, but he reportedly hit 97 with his fastball in fall practice and getting more consistently into the mid 90's this spring (he was more 90-94 as a freshman) could give him the final bump.

Leading the High School Class: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS [TX]
Two years ago, a high school shortstop from the Dallas-Fort Worth Mid-Cities went second overall to the Kansas City Royals, and now Irving native Jordan Lawlar finds his stock at a similar level to Southlake native Bobby Witt Jr. Hailing from the same Jesuit High School program that produced Josh Bell, Kyle Muller, and golfer Jordan Spieth, Lawlar stands at the top of a strong class of high school bats. He stands out first and foremost for his strong feel for the game, making heads up plays consistently on both sides of the ball. He shows a clean swing from the right side, producing plenty of hard, line drive contact against the top arms in the class with ease. Much more than just a slap hitter, the 6'2" teenager has been growing into some legitimate power and now projects for 15-20 home runs per season, perhaps even more, to go along with those high on-base percentages. He's also one of the better defenders in the class and will stick at shortstop, making his bat look even better, and his plus speed means that you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The only knock on Lawlar at this point is his age, as a July birthday means he'll already be 19 on draft day. The rest of his profile is so strong, though, that it's hard to hold that against him.
What he needs to do to go first overall: He's so close, so the answer is not much other than maintain. Tapping his power more consistently while continuing to get on base at a high clip would certainly help, as it's the only place he doesn't grade out as true plus. Otherwise, if the Vanderbilt commit continues to steal the show this spring like he did over the summer, he's right there.

Right Behind Lawlar: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]
While Jordan Lawlar has but some narrow daylight between himself and the rest of the high school class, Marcelo Mayer is right on his heels. Mayer, like Lawlar, comes from a powerhouse program, with suburban San Diego's Eastlake High School having produced Adrian Gonzalez, Casey Schmitt, and Keoni Cavaco. Also like Lawlar, he has great feel for the game and an easy plus hit tool, but comes with perhaps even more power projection due to an explosive, but clean, left handed swing and a projectable 6'3" frame. He's also an even better shortstop than Lawlar, but lacks his counterpart's plus speed on the bases. Personally, I like Mayer's ceiling even better than I do Lawlar's, with a real possibility of 25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and potential Gold Glove defense at a premium position.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Mayer needs to tap his power in games. He's done so occasionally, but while he has the lead over Lawlar in terms of power projection, Lawlar has tapped his more consistently to this point. By closing the gap between his present and projected power, Mayer can help scouts feel more confident he'll tap his massive ceiling. Given that the Southern California commit already possesses exceptional feel for the barrel, nobody's all that concerned anyways.

Tools and Track Record: OF Jud Fabian, Florida
Jud Fabian graduated high school a year early and got to campus at Florida just before his 18th birthday, and now he won't turn 21 until multiple months after the draft. After a respectable freshman campaign (.232/.353/.411), Fabian broke out as a sophomore (.294/.407/.603, 5 HR in 17 games) and now has a pair of strong summers in the Cape Cod League and Florida Collegiate League under his belt. Listed at 6'2", he packs above average raw power into his athletic frame and taps it consistently in games due to his strong plate discipline. He's also an above average runner with the chance to stick in center field, meaning he can impact the game in as many ways as anybody in this class. If there's one concern for the Ocala native, it's the pure bat to ball skills, as he has some minor swing and miss concerns in the zone despite good pitch recognition and selection.
What he needs to do to go first overall: For me personally, cutting down on swing and miss in the zone would be a big plus. It's not something I'm particularly concerned about, but it brings what could be a 55 or 60 hit tool based on his plate discipline down to more of a 50. That could help him really showcase his power, and with all the walks he draws and his ability to steal bases and play up the middle, we could have a pretty complete ballplayer in that case that would be hard to turn down.

Loud Stuff, Quiet Track Record: RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State
Pitch for pitch, Kumar Rocker might not have the best stuff in this class – that may very well be LSU's Jaden Hill. Hailing from a small town outside Texarkana, Hill was another big recruit who has seen his stuff improve considerably in Baton Rouge. Originally a fastball/changeup pitcher, he touched the upper 90's in his few short stints in game action and still shows plus potential with his changeup. The difference between now and three years ago, however, is his slider, which has improved from a fringy offering to a true plus pitch that flashes plus-plus. The Arkansas native is also working on a cutter that flashes above average, rounding out his arsenal. Hill has never had trouble throwing strikes and now that his quarterback career is through, the 6'4", 235 pounder looks the part of a durable starter as well.
What he needs to do to go first overall: In one sentence, he needs his stuff to be just as loud at the end of the season as it is at the start. Injuries as a freshman plus the coronavirus shutdown have limited him to 21.2 innings, mostly as a reliever, so he simply has not proven that his stuff can hold up over long stretches. To this point, Hill has done nothing to prove he can't be a front of the rotation type, so he just needs to prove he can.

The Pure Bat: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami
The title says it all here – there isn't a more professional hitter in this class than Adrian Del Castillo. The Miami native is a career .336/.430/.571 hitter for the Hurricanes with 14 home runs and significantly more walks (43) than strikeouts (32), showing the calm, confident, mature hitting ability that few can rival. Though he's just 5'11" and stockily built at that, he possesses above average raw power that he taps consistently in games to go along with his plus hit tool. Del Castillo's short-to-it, long-through-it swing is perfectly geared for putting barrel to baseball, combining with his plus plate discipline to help him execute as consistently as anyone. On defense, there are more question marks. He carries over his feel for the game behind the plate, showing good fundamentals and an accurate arm, but he lacks the athleticism and explosiveness you'd like to see in a catching prospect. He's working hard to improve back there, but it's far from a guarantee at this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: As far as the bat goes, he just has to maintain. However, there needs to be improvement in the glove. If Del Castillo has to move off catcher, 5'11" is a little short for first base and his below average speed and unspectacular arm would limit him to a mediocre left field. If he can get a little smoother behind the plate, showing better ability to get down and block balls in the dirt/put a little more power on his throws, scouts can be more confident they won't have to accept a defensive liability at 1B/LF. Honestly, if he proves he can stick behind the plate this spring, consider Adrian Del Castillo a top-three candidate to go first overall.

The Former First Rounder: SS Matt McLain, UCLA
While Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter had first round pedigree coming out of high school, Matt McLain was actually drafted 25th overall in 2018, but did not sign with the Diamondbacks. His freshman season was disappointing (.203/.276/.355), but since the calendar flipped to 2020, McLain has seen his stock explode. He hit .397/.422/.621 in thirteen games as a sophomore, then a ridiculous .436/.536/.773 with seven home runs over the summer in the California Collegiate League. The Los Angeles-area native appears slight in stature at 5'11", but he's an explosive athlete that churns out plus run times and hits for more power than you'd expect. His quick right handed swing enables him to make plenty of hard contact, also helping that power play up to average so far, with the chance to get to above average. He can be a bit choppy at shortstop but overall projects to stick there with a strong arm and plenty of speed. McLain's main drawback is a susceptibility to offspeed stuff, part of an overall aggressive approach that can limit his on-base percentages.
What he needs to do to go first overall: McLain will always be projected as a hit-over-power guy, so in order to make his way to the very top of the class, he'll naturally need to prove that hit tool is rock-solid. To do that, he'll need to lay off breaking balls out of the zone in 2021, and overall bring his walk rate up considerably. That walk rate is 6.7% for his career, so we'd really like to see something in the double digits in 2021 with a reduction in the strikeout rate.

The Next Texas Horse: RHP Ty Madden, Texas
Ty Madden has been trending up ever since his high school days in the Houston suburbs, where he was teammates with JJ Goss (Rays, comp round 2019), Matthew Thompson (White Sox, second round 2019), and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State, likely first round 2021). Madden had a 3.40 ERA and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 42.1 innings as a freshman, then ramped that up to a 1.80 ERA and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 innings as a sophomore. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, topping out around 96-97 in games and as high as 99 in fall practice, and the pitch plays up further due to the tough angle and run he puts on it. His slider has been relatively inconsistent, shortening up at times but showing true plus at others. Madden also possesses one of the better changeups in the class, an above average pitch that is more consistent than his slider. His command has steadily improved and he has no trouble filling up the strike zone nowadays, and while some stabbing motion in the back of his delivery and a funky arm path worry some scouts, he has been durable to this point.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There aren't any giant leaps that need to be made. Rather, incremental improvements in various parts of his game could do the trick for the 6'3" right hander. Maintaining his low to mid 90's fastball over a full season, getting a little more consistent with that slider, and refining his command just a touch would all help. There's really not much to dislike in Madden's game, so he just needs to continue to prove it.

The Sleeper: RHP Ryan Cusick, Wake Forest
I don't think Ryan Cusick is one of the ten most likely players to go first overall, but it's not impossible and it's really fun to think about. Hailing from the same Connecticut boarding school, the Avon Old Farms School, that produced George Springer and 2020 Orioles second rounder Hudson Haskin, Cusick's 5.63 ERA and 98/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 innings highlight the up and down nature of his career in Winston-Salem. The Boston-area native has a wicked fastball that can touch 97-98 in games with great ride that makes it tough to square up, though he can dip into the low 90's fairly frequently. His slider flashes true plus, perhaps even plus-plus, but frequently flattens out into a below average pitch. He also throws an average changeup and can flip in a slurvy curveball. His command has been wildly inconsistent, from fringe average as a freshman to well below average as a sophomore (18 walks in 22.1 innings) and back to fringe average in summer ball. Cusick reaches his velocity pretty easily, and he's gotten more coordinated with his lanky 6'6" frame and explosive stuff.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot. Cusick took a big step forward with an exceptional summer in the Coastal Plain League (1.14 ERA, 40/9 K/BB), but he needs to continue to prove himself in the spring. The Pirates won't consider him unless he gets close to average command on a consistent basis, and his slider needs to take that last step forward and stop flattening out. That's all easier said than done, but if the draft were held to day, I don't think Cusick would be a factor in the top half of the first round.

Honorable Mentions

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville: Binelas had as loud of a freshman season as you can have (14 HR, .291/.383/.612), showing as explosive of a bat as any in the class. His lightning quick swing gives him massive raw power and elite exit velocities, while his strong feel for the barrel enables him to tap that power consistently in games. His swing can be a bit rigid, as can his actions at third base, so he lacks the up the middle projection you usually see with the first overall pick. The Milwaukee-area native also lacks the plus hit tool that Spencer Torkelson had, so for that reason, it's hard to envision a path to the very top of the draft.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA]: The most famous name in the high school class coming into the summer, House hasn't faltered so much as players like Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer have simply outperformed him. Coming from just outside the Atlanta suburbs, he shows plus raw power that he has consistently tapped in games against top competition. His hit tool has been more inconsistent, as he goes through stretches where he is completely unfazed by velocity and high-end breaking stuff, but at others he shows a bit more swing and miss than you'd like. The 6'3" shortstop's right handed swing could use a little fine tuning, as it's simple and explosive when he stays within himself but can get out of whack at times, and he'll need to learn to add loft regardless. House has a chance to stick at shortstop, but he might outgrow the position and move to third base.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]: Wood has been one of the fastest risers in the class as he's proven his hit tool more and more. Growing up on the Maryland side of the DC suburbs, he transferred to the famous IMG Academy outside Tampa and it's paying off. The 6'6" giant has a very laid back playing style, showing up in a calm demeanor and a patient approach at the plate. When he swings, though, he unleashes huge raw power that comes from a combination of loft, strength, and extension in his left handed swing. He possesses a keen eye at the plate and won't chase bad pitches, though he can get himself into deep counts and swing and miss from there occasionally. An above average runner for now, he has a chance to stick in center field and could be a plus defender in right.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL]
No high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and while that's unlikely to change in 2021, it's hard to find anything wrong with Andrew Painter. He's a towering 6'6" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that tops out around 95-96, with that projectable frame promising more velocity. He adds a pair of good breaking balls in a downer curveball and a more lateral slider, neither of which is a true plus pitch but both of which are consistently at least average and flash above average. His changeup is the same story, playing at least average consistently and flashing above. Unlike most high school pitchers with his build, he's a polished strike thrower with an easy, simple delivery, making him the complete package at a young age. The next step, aside from staying healthy, will be refining at least one of his breaking balls into a plus pitch.

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn
Fitts was one of the fall's biggest risers, pushing himself from a fringe-day one arm to a true first round talent. Mostly a swingman over his first two years at Auburn, the Birmingham-area native sat around 90 with his fastball and showed promise with his secondaries and command as a reliever. He earned a starting role over the summer and in the fall, where his fastball actually ticked up into the low to mid 90's, playing up due to the tough angle he puts on his pitches. His downer slider and nice splitter both flash above average, and as he did as a reliever, he throws strikes with all three pitches. With a durable 6'3" frame, he has all the starter traits necessary to project in the rotation long term, and he just needs to go out and prove it this spring.