I really like what the Reds did here. They had a ton of draft capital with five of the first 94 picks, and they used it. They didn't expect top ten talent Cam Collier to fall into their lap at pick #18, so they changed their entire draft strategy to make it work. After signing Collier for well over a million dollars above slot value, they went below slot value for each of the next eleven picks to make up for it, and also counted each many picks' $2,500 signing contingency bonus (which comes in addition to the draft bonus and does not count against the pool) as part of the bonus, saving a few extra pennies here and there. They drafted some very interesting bats early on (though I thought Justin Boyd was the one questionable pick here), then went for stuff above all else with picks like Bryce Hubbart, Kenya Huggins, Zach Maxwell, and Ben Brutti. They actually spent much of the latter portion of the draft on arms, drafting twelve pitchers with their final thirteen picks, with the lone position player in that range, Mason Neville, not even signing.
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1-18: 3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC. My rank: #6.
Slot value: $3.66 million. Signing bonus: $5 million ($1.34 million above slot value).
If you told Reds general manager Nick Krall in April that he would be getting Cam Collier in the first round, he would likely have been happy to hear that. If you told him the day before the draft that he would be getting Collier, he would have probably laughed in your face, as multiple teams throughout the top ten picks were rumored to be very in on the young hitter. As it went, those clubs went different directions, and soon signability pushed him to the Reds with the 18th pick. They gave him roughly the slot value for the tenth overall pick, more than a million above their own slot value, to sign him away from a Louisville commitment. So who is this kid that Cincinnati was happy to upend its draft strategy over? Cam Collier was actually supposed to be a junior in high school, but he earned his GED and graduated not one, but two years early from Mount Paran Christian Academy in the Atlanta area to attend Chipola Junior College, much like Bryce Harper more than a decade earlier. Despite being just 17 years old and facing kids who were mostly 19-21 years old, Collier more than held his own by slashing .333/.419/.537 with eight home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He then went to the Cape Cod League and further impressed evaluators by looking right at home against the best 19-21 year olds in the country. This is all because, year of age for year of age, he is probably the most advanced amateur hitter in the country. He takes extremely professional at bats, controlling the strike zone with ease against much older pitching with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. Collier shows off above average raw power from the left side of the plate, a product of a sturdy, mature 6'2" frame and a sweet, loose, simple swing. He finds the barrel very consistently and sprays deep line drives to all fields, and in pro ball could profile for 20-25 home runs a year with on-base percentages approaching .400. While he probably won't win any Gold Gloves, he is a very capable defender at third base with solid actions around the bag and enough arm strength to stick there. The Reds of course are buying the bat, and if anybody in this class could reach the majors as a teenager, it will probably be Collier. Teenager in this case gives him until the end of the 2024 season, so he would have 2023-2024 to rise through the ranks and make it happen.
1C-32: 3B Sal Stewart, Westminster Christian HS [FL]. My rank: #65.
Slot value: $2.37 million. Signing bonus: $2.1 million ($275,500 below slot value).
Sal Stewart was rumored to be one of the toughest signs in the draft with an extremely firm commitment to Vanderbilt in his pocket, and it took the Reds drafting him about a full round ahead of where he was projected to stop that from happening. If you want a comp, then you'll really like this one if you follow college baseball: Tommy White. Last year, it seems like evaluators (myself included) slept on White a little bit out at IMG Academy because he was a right handed hitting likely first baseman with body concerns, and he made us all regret it by blasting 27 home runs as a true freshman this year. The Reds front office likely saw what White was doing in Raleigh, looked at Stewart, and said "nah, we're not letting that happen again." Also a bigger bodied right handed hitting high school first baseman, Stewart has a similarly impressive track record of hitting and could give the Reds a true middle of the order bat. He's a very disciplined hitter that has been seen a lot on the showcase circuit and has performed well throughout, but he stands out for his plus raw power from a compact uppercut. He's big and strong at a listed 6'3", 215 pounds, and he should only get stronger as he matures. At this point, he's such a natural hitter that he can get away with letting his mechanics get out of whack, and he's strong enough to still do damage even when he's lunging forward or losing the connection between his upper and lower body. That should be a relatively easy fix for the player development program, and Stewart ultimately has a chance to club 30+ home runs a year with good on-base percentages if everything breaks right. Drafted as a third baseman, the Miami native will likely move to first base in pro ball with clunky actions around the bag and below average speed. If you want another comp, Pete Alonso makes sense as well.
2-55: C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State. My rank: #73.
Slot value: $1.37 million. Signing bonus: $1.03 million ($346,500 below slot value).
The Reds draft catchers like clockwork, and Logan Tanner makes it eight drafts in a row where they took one in the first seven rounds going back to Tyler Stephenson in 2015. Tanner was right up there with Kevin Parada and Daniel Susac at the top of a deep college catching class heading into the spring, and even though a disappointing season (.285/.387/.425, 7 HR, 45/32 K/BB in 55 games) dropped him out of the first round, there is still a lot to like. The southern Mississippi native is one of the best defensive catchers in the country, showing great agility back there that helps him block baseballs well, but he stands out most for his arm. It's a plus-plus cannon that not only nabs base stealers on the routine throws, but also works from multiple angles a lot like Patrick Mahomes. Check out this throw from Mississippi State's 2021 National Championship run. Usually, you're going to have to settle for a light hitter if you want defense like that, but Tanner can swing it. He takes very good at bats, with a simple right handed swing that produces high exit velocities and potentially above average power. However, his bat to ball skills are a bit behind his pitch recognition and he doesn't have great feel for the barrel just yet, which led to an overall lack of impact in 2022, but because he understands the strike zone well he should recover quickly with some pro coaching. Overall, he probably projects for 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages and great defense at best, a starter's profile if he gets back to his 2021 form.
CBB-73: OF Justin Boyd, Oregon State. My rank: #210.
Slot value: $901,300. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($53,800 below slot value).
The Reds saved a little more money on Justin Boyd, a pick somewhat reminiscent of Justice Thompson a year ago. Boyd did not play in the shortened 2020 season then showed well in a part time role in 2021 before breaking out in 2022, slashing .373/.490/.577 with nine home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 58/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. An on-base machine, he is one of the more patient hitters in this class and draws a ton of walks. Those deep counts do lead to some strikeout concerns, as he has just average bat to ball skills, but it's nothing egregious. He's mostly a gap to gap hitter, drilling balls to all fields and letting his plus speed do the work, and while he can turn on one for a home run here and there, I don't expect more than 10-15 home runs per season here at peak. The Denver-area product can play all three outfield positions well with his speed and a good arm, to me giving this a very solid fourth outfield profile with a chance for more if he can tap some power while keeping his strikeouts down.
3-94: LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State. My rank: #64.
Slot value: $649,900. Signing bonus: $522,500 ($127,400 below slot value).
I really like this pick for the Reds, and I think it could turn out to provide the best value of their whole draft. Bryce Hubbart threw well as a sophomore at Florida State in 2021 but broke out in the Cape Cod League last summer, where he posted a 0.87 ERA and a 45/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings. Those Cape numbers become even more impressive when you find out that all three earned runs that Hubbart allowed came one one swing, a three run Braylen Wimmer (Phillies, 18th round) home run in the third inning of his very first start – from there, he closed out the season with 28.2 consecutive shutout innings (aside from one unearned run). His 2022 was a bit more up and down, beginning with dominant outings against James Madison, Samford, and California and ultimately ending up with a 3.32 ERA and a 96/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings. Hubbart really interests me as a pitcher. His fastball velocity fluctuates, getting as high as the mid 90's on the Cape but also dipping into the upper 80's at times with Florida State, typically settling in the 90-92 range. The pitch plays like an invisiball, though, with sneaky riding action that misses bats and confounds hitters. That means even when he's 89-91, he can get consistent outs against advanced hitters, and when he's more 92-94, he dominates the elite like we saw on the Cape. He throws both a curveball and a newer slider, both of which flashed plus on the Cape, but they're both inconsistent and he prefers to pitch off his fastball. Hubbart rounds out his arsenal with an average changeup. He has a very skinny 6'1" frame and an uptempo delivery, but to this point he has shown that he can hold up just fine in the rotation. In order to take the mound every fifth day in the big leagues, he'll have to get more consistent with both his velocity and his offspeed stuff, and while his command has steadily improved, it's still fringe-average and will need some fine tuning in pro ball. The Orlando-area native really understands the analytical side of pitching and will take well to the Reds' player development program, and with a June birthday, he's on the younger side for a college junior. I think the ceiling is huge here if the Reds can get him back to where he was on the Cape, when he looked like an easy first round pick.
4-123: RHP Kenya Huggins, Chipola JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $488,300. Signing bonus: $407,500 ($80,800 below slot value).
The Reds picked up a power arm in the fourth round, getting Cam Collier's Chipola teammate Kenya Huggins. Huggins earned some draft interest a year ago out of high school in New Orleans, but went the JuCo route and showed well as a freshman in Marianna, posting a 2.96 ERA and a 97/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, getting up to around 96, but the pitch can play a bit straight and stands out more for its velocity than its movement. His best pitch is a mid to upper 80's power slider with late bite ,getting ugly swings and misses especially when he locates it down and away to right handed hitters. There's also a changeup here, and while it needs more refinement, he gets some fade on it and he's just 19. The 6'3" righty is big and physical and will only get stronger, though he carries some relief risk because he doesn't always stay on line in his delivery and has fringy command for now. Huggins will want to iron that out in pro ball while also refining his changeup if he wants to start, and if he can find a way to increase the life on his fastball, he could be a very good one. Otherwise, the fastball/slider combination should play out of the bullpen.
5-153: C Cade Hunter, Virginia Tech. My rank: #79.
Slot value: $364,600. Signing bonus: $362,100 ($2,500 below slot value).
Like I said, the Reds love college catchers who perform in power conferences, so Cade Hunter will join Logan Tanner, Matheu Nelson (Florida State), and Chris Okey (Clemson) as early round picks in the system. Hunter played just 29 games combined in 2020 and 2021 and had just 17 career hits coming into the season, but he was one of the country's better breakout bats in 2022 with a .330/.440/.637 slash line, 17 home runs, and a 59/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games for the surprising Hokies. While Tanner is probably glove-first at this point, Hunter is definitely bat-first, with massive raw power from the left side that produces huge exit velocities. He gets great separation in his swing, throwing the hips while leaving his hands back and creating a rubber band effect to consistently drive the ball with force. The hit tool is a bit behind at this point, as he struggles with breaking stuff to a somewhat concerning level, but he does hammer fastballs at any velocity. He also looked just a little bit lost later on in the season and struck out four times in Virginia Tech's season-ending loss to Oklahoma in the Blacksburg Super Regional (though to be fair, that was a major step in Cade Horton's coming out party, which you'll read about in the Cubs review). Behind the plate, the Philadelphia-area native is extremely athletic and can pop out of the crouch and run with the best of backstops, but his glovework and arm strength are more average and will need some refinement in pro ball. The potential onset of robo umps does help that profile a bit. Overall, I see a potential everyday catcher that can hammer 25+ home runs a year, but he will have to figure something out against quality breaking balls in order to reach that ceiling.
6-183: RHP Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech. My rank: #103.
Slot value: $279,700. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($77,200 below slot value).
If you like Joe Boyle, who is looking unhittable at High A Dayton right now, then you're going to love Zach Maxwell. Maxwell is a huge, 6'6", 275 pound beast of a man, and he's slowly pulling it together on the mound. After walking 23.9% of his opponents as a freshman in 2020 and 25.6% in 2021, he cut that walk rate to 17.3% in 2022 and that helped him post a 5.26 ERA and an 84/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings this year in a swingman role. The Atlanta-area product sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, touching triple digits with serious life. The pitch has extreme vertical axis and rides a ton, making it jump on hitters even quicker than the already impressive radar gun readings would tell you. His slider is downright ghoulish, with massive spin rates and devastating late bite that makes it one of the best breaking balls in the class. Those two pitches are kind of it for now, as Maxwell doesn't have much of a changeup and he doesn't really need it. Command is obviously the big question, as even though it improved in 2022, it's still well below average as the big guy doesn't always repeat his delivery well and struggles to harness his explosive stuff. He made a few starts this year and actually showed very well in a few of them, but unless he can take massive steps forward with his command and changeup, it's a pure relief profile and I think the Reds will be okay with that. With all of Joe Boyle's success so far, they have a pretty good blueprint for development.
7-213: SS Trey Faltine, Texas. My rank: #202.
Slot value: $219,000. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($19,000 below slot value).
Trey Faltine earned some top 100 draft interest as a two-way player in high school, but made it to campus at Texas and has been exclusively a position player. He had a breakout year in 2022, slashing .282/.393/.552 with 15 home runs and a 104/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, but those 104 strikeouts were second in college baseball only to Oklahoma State's Nolan McLean at 107. Faltine has an explosive swing from the right side that is capable of producing high exit velocities and above average raw power, but he may have gotten too power conscious in 2022 and that led to an ugly 35.6% strikeout rate. He's a bit passive at the plate and struggled in Big 12 play, so the hit tool is very much in question as he enters pro ball and he'll likely need to trade some power to make enough contact. The Houston-area product is a very good defender at shortstop, with slick actions, good range, and a plus arm that sat around 90 when he pitched in high school. That alone should buy the bat plenty of slack, and given his ability to pummel the baseball, there is some upside. But the swing and miss is very alarming.
11-333: RHP Ben Brutti, South Kingstown HS [RI]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $405,000 ($280,000 against bonus pool).
The Reds only went above slot value once after Cam Collier, but they just could not resist the live armed Ben Brutti. He had very limited track record entering 2022, but exploded onto the scene with a loud spring that sent scouts flocking to southern Rhode Island to see him pitch. Brutti's fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96 with hard running and sinking action from a very low three quarters slot. His slider is equally devastating when it's on, showing sharp, late sweeping action in the opposite direction of his fastball, though it's not as consistent. He also throws a solid changeup that plays well off his fastball, but he hasn't needed it so far. The profile is a bit relievery, as Brutti throws with considerable effort, emphasized by sharp stabbing action in the back of his arm stroke and an explosive stride down the mound. The 6'3" righty has to get a little more consistent with his command in addition to his offspeed stuff if he wants to start long term, and he's also extremely old for a high school senior having turned 19 in May. Still, I see a potential impact reliever that could close games if it all breaks right. He had been committed to South Florida.
12-363: RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Mason Pelio is unfortunately an example of a pitcher who has developed in the wrong direction. He was a standout as part of Boston College's rotation as a freshman in 2019, when he posted a 3.62 ERA over thirteen starts, and heading into the 2021 draft cycle he was considered second to third round pick (though I was never that high on him). Unfortunately, his command disappeared that year and he finished with a 6.65 ERA over fourteen starts, so he returned to Chestnut Hill to give it one more go. That did not work out, and he lost innings throughout the year as he finished with a 9.16 ERA and a 21/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings. Pelio has been into the upper 90's at times, but typically sits in the low 90's with cutting action while flipping over a fringy slider and an above average changeup. He's a big guy at a listed 6'3", 230 pounds, but he's seen his command move backwards from average to fringy to well below average now, causing all of his stuff to play down. Even when he had close to average command, I wanted to see him sharpen up his slider before I fully bought in, which he hasn't done. The San Diego-area native represents a reclamation project for Cincinnati, but the building blocks are there. He has that big strong frame, a ton of arm strength, and an advanced changeup, and he just needs to be put back together. If a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered, I wouldn't close the book just yet on him becoming a back-end starter.
18-543: OF Mason Neville, Basic HS [NV]. My rank: #133.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Reds took a shot at Mason Neville in the 18th round but ultimately could not keep him away from an Arkansas commitment. Neville is a great athlete that shows off a variety of tools, albeit in need of some refinement that he'll get in Fayetteville. His loose left handed swing produces power to all fields when he connects, and at a projectable 6'3", he should grow into even more power in time. He makes good contact but it often comes at the expense of his power, as Neville will often throw the bat head at the ball in order to make contact if he doesn't recognize the pitch right away. The Las Vegas native has big upside at the plate if he can learn himself a bit more as a hitter, and I'll be interested to see how the Arkansas coaching staff goes about that. He's also a plus runner that can play center field, adding to his value.
