2022 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

You may or may not think Kumar Rocker was a reach at third overall, and personally it's not the pick I would have made even with the discount, but you cannot deny the brilliance of this class as a whole especially given that they did it without a second or third round pick. They found an incredible amount of talent despite not making their second pick until #109, and that means I have to give massive kudos to now ex-GM Jon Daniels. After scooping up all that premium talent in the first five picks, the Rangers went an interesting route the rest of the way by giving just $7,000 to their eighth, ninth, and tenth picks combined, followed by drafting a slew of JuCo and high school players on day three. They got all four JuCo arms to sign, but landed just one of the five high schoolers on day three and let the other four get to campus. In all, it was a very pitching-heavy class that featured only five bats in total, one of which didn't even sign and two of which combined to sign for just $2,000. 
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-3: RHP Kumar Rocker, Tri-City ValleyCats. My rank: #36.
Slot value: $7.59 million. Signing bonus: $5.2 million ($2.39 million below slot value).
We pretty much all know about Kumar Rocker's wild ride to pro ball, but let's recap it real quick just in case anybody has been under a rock. The son of former NFL player and current Philadelphia Eagles defensive line coach Tracy Rocker, Kumar was one of the top high school pitchers in the country in 2018 and had significant first round interest. He wound up at Vanderbilt instead and quickly became one of the most famous players in college baseball with a tremendous freshman season highlighted by a 19 strikeout no-hitter against Duke in the Nashville Super Regional, and entered the 2021 draft cycle as a leading candidate to go first overall. While he was dominant more often than not that spring, he was just inconsistent enough under that top-of-the-draft spotlight to slip to the Mets at tenth overall, who initially offered him a $6 million signing bonus. However, the two sides disagreed over his post-draft physical and the Mets pulled the offer and informed him they would not sign him under any circumstances, effectively barring Rocker from affiliated baseball. He underwent minor arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder in September, then instead of returning to Vanderbilt for his senior season, he opted to train independently and signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League. He got on the mound for five closely watched starts in June and July, posting a 1.35 ERA and a 32/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings and rocketing himself back up draft boards even as news of his September surgery broke. We all knew that Rocker would be one of the biggest wild cards in the first round, with rumored interest throughout the middle of the round but with many teams being scared off by the shoulder surgery, and he wound up going about ten picks ahead of where most expected his ceiling to be. His $5.2 million signing bonus, while more than $2 million below slot value at third overall, was roughly equivalent to slot value at ninth overall. So where does that leave us now? Kumar Rocker, who turns 23 in November, is naturally one of the most advanced pitchers in the class. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent, hovering close to 90 at times in 2021 but also touching 99 at others, with average riding life that can play a bit true and get hit when it's over the plate. His slider got slurvy at times last year, but at its best, it's a devastating plus-plus pitch that sends even the most disciplined hitters flailing at it. He also shows a shorter, harder cutter that looks like an above average pitch, while his changeup lacks deception and has been hit hard at times. Everything was at its best in his controlled outings in 2022, leading many teams including the Rangers to feel comfortable that his inconsistencies last spring were much more of a blip on the radar than anything representing his long term reality. Rocker also pounds the strike zone and while his control is ahead of his command, both looked very sharp with Tri-City. The 6'5" righty is also extremely physical and moves well on the mound with a competitive demeanor, giving off the proverbial vibe of a staff ace. Now the reason he fell out of the first round range on my board is his shoulder. It looked completely healthy in 2022, but between the inconsistency of his stuff in 2021 and the minor surgery shortly thereafter, it's far from guaranteed to hold up. Shoulders are notoriously unpredictable and if something goes wrong, the fix is often much more complicated than Tommy John surgery, but the Rangers are clearly comfortable with his medicals and are ready to have him join former Vanderbilt teammate Jack Leiter in Arlington sooner rather than later.

4-109: RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS [MI]. My rank: #16.
Slot value: $560,200. Signing bonus: $3.7 million ($3.14 million above slot value).
Signing Kumar Rocker for well below slot value opened up an opportunity for the Rangers to make a massive splash with Brock Porter, who signed for the highest bonus ever for a player outside the top one hundred picks. In fact, that $3.7 million payday he received to skip out on a Clemson commitment is between the slot values for the 17th and 18th picks, so nobody is mistaking his slide down to the fourth round as having anything to do with talent – there are many teams and most draft boards that considered him a first round pick. Porter has a tremendous combination of arm strength and polish, making him another potential future ace in a system that is getting deep in pitching. He sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and has touched triple digits on occasion, with enough stamina to hold that velocity deep into his starts. His breaking balls need more refinement but the feel for spin is certainly there, with a loopy mid 70's curveball with plenty of depth that just needs to add some power as well as a harder, shorter slider that looks like a true plus pitch when he snaps it off just right. Porter's best offspeed pitch is a plus changeup with huge fading action that can even work up in the zone, rounding out an arsenal that could, a few years down the road, feature four plus pitches. The 6'4" righty's delivery is clean, athletic, and repeatable, albeit with some head whack, and his average command is extremely impressive given how hard he throws. The main drawback in this profile, at least for some teams, is his age, as he turned 19 more than a month before the draft and is more age appropriate for a college freshman than a high school senior. Still, it's hard to imagine the Detroit-area native as anything but a high end starting pitcher.

5-139: OF Chandler Pollard, Woodward HS [GA]. My rank: #96.
Slot value: $418,500. Signing bonus: $418,500.
This has a chance to really, really pay off for the Rangers. Chandler Pollard had a Washington State commitment in the bag, but surprisingly signed with the Rangers for slot value here in the fifth round. He's an exceptional athlete that moves extremely well on both sides of the ball, with plenty of projection once he gets into the Rangers development system. In the box, he shows extremely quick hands that produce plenty of bat speed, with the long arms and legs to create natural leverage from his 6'2" frame. He does need to get stronger to tap more power, but I definitely see it in him and he could get to above average in time. Pollard's hit tool is unproven, as he rose to prominence more this spring against Atlanta-area competition rather than over the summer against showcase competition, but he has shown the ability to get to balls all over the zone and do damage. On the other side of the ball, he's a plus runner that played a lot of shortstop in high school, where his glovework was a bit raw, but the Rangers drafted him as an outfielder and where he has a chance to stick in center field. Pollard has a lot of work to do to reach his lofty ceiling, but the natural ability is absolutely there and his projection and athleticism make for excellent building blocks. He has played two games so far in the Arizona Complex League, going hitless with a pair of strikeouts in five at bats while adding a walk.

6-169: OF Tommy Specht, Wahlert Catholic HS [IA]. My rank: #122.
Slot value: $314,400. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($135,600 above slot value).
A year ago, the Rangers drafted a catcher named Ian Moller in the fourth round out of Wahlert Catholic High School that stood out on the showcase circuit but struggled in game action. This year, they grabbed another Wahlert Catholic alum who also showed well on the showcase circuit before struggling in the spring. Tommy Specht is a physical, athletic outfielder that draws some parallels to Zac Veen, albeit not quite at his level. He takes big, explosive swings from the left side, with the potential for plus power as he matures. He made a lot of loud contact over the summer, but he wasn't always consistent and that was certainly the case in a slower spring. The Dubuque, Iowa native is also an above average runner with a plus arm, and he has a chance to stick in center field or become an asset in right field. Additionally, he's more than a year younger than Brock Porter in the same class and has a great head on his shoulders, giving him plenty of time to develop and the tools to do so. The Rangers are bought into the explosive tools he showed over the summer, and they hope he'll regain that form once he gets into their development system. There is a ton of upside to be had here at the relatively modest price of $450,000 to sign away from a Kentucky commitment, and Specht has so far picked up two hits in ten at bats with six strikeouts to two walks through three games in the Arizona Complex League. 

7-199: RHP Luis Ramirez, Long Beach State. My rank: #138.
Slot value: $245,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($5,000 above slot value).
Thought of as a late day two candidate entering the season, Luis Ramirez came out of the gate red hot with dominant outings against Mississippi State, Sacramento State, and Hawaii, allowing three runs (just one earned) in 25 innings over his first four starts, rocketing as high as second round consideration. However, he went down with a shoulder injury after that fourth start in mid-March, missed three weeks, and wasn't nearly as effective when he returned, allowing eleven runs (seven earned) and walking seven in 8.2 innings over his next three starts. Long Beach State shut him down again for good, and he hasn't pitched since. In all, he had a 2.14 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, but those numbers were 0.36 and 28/4 before the injury. As I mentioned with Kumar Rocker, shoulder injuries are extremely unpredictable, and it's hard to know what to make of the situation. He ranked #80 at Prospects Live, #118 at Baseball America, #138 on my board, and #143 at MLB Pipeline but teams passed him up until pick #199, and they presumably have more information on his medicals than these publications do (certainly more than I do), so I wouldn't exactly take that as a good sign. Still, when Ramirez is on the mound, the stuff belongs well within the top one hundred picks. His fastball sits in the low 90's but can touch as high as 98, with nasty running and sinking action from a high three quarters slot that generates a ton of ground balls. He adds a big slider with deep break and an above average changeup, making for a very good three pitch mix. The Los Angeles native commands his fastball very well but can get a little more scattered with his offspeed pitches, so once he gets back on the mound, that should be a point of emphasis. He has the luck of a durable #4 starter with a solid 6'2" frame, though obviously that's a question mark until he gets his shoulder back to full strength.

11-319: LHP Kohl Drake, Walters State JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
The Rangers have quite a few pitchers from DFW in their system, including Cody Bradford (Aledo), Mason Englert (Forney), and Josh Stephan (Grand Prairie), and they'll add another one in Kohl Drake. Drake grew up in Sachse about 18 miles northeast of downtown and attended Wylie High School one town over, but he's played baseball all over the country. After beginning his career at Arkansas Tech, he transferred across the country to San Joaquin Delta JC in California in 2020, then after the shutdown moved all the way back across the country again to Walters State JC in East Tennessee. It was there that he finally came into his own, putting on a show this spring with a 1.93 ERA and a 160/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.1 innings. That included three different outings with at least thirteen strikeouts and one against Columbia State JC in which he struck out sixteen over seven shutout innings. Now, the Rangers will bring the well-travelled lefty back home. Drake sits around 90 with his fastball with some riding life, drops in a solid curveball with deep break, and adds a solid changeup as well. He commands it all very well, having cleaned up his delivery considerably at Walters State, and was able to dice up JuCo hitters across the South. Now hitting pro ball, he's going to need to add a few ticks of velocity across the board, both to his fastball and offspeed stuff. Though he turned 22 on the first day of the draft, he remains very projectable at 6'5" and could probably throw a little harder in a pro development program. If he can, he has the ingredients of a back end starter, and one that knows his way around the Metroplex to boot.

18-529: LHP Justin Sanchez, Monsignor McClancy HS [NY]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Justin Sanchez represents a sleeper in this class, signing away from a USF commitment for $125,000 in the eighteenth round. He only sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, topping out around 91, adding a two-plane slider with deep, late break as well as a fairly advanced changeup. Though he doesn't throw particularly hard now, the 6' lefty doesn't feature much effort in his delivery and can land all three of his pitches for strikes to both sides of the plate, so he's very advanced. With his all-around game in a very good spot to start out, he can focus his attention on adding velocity and power to get pro hitters out. You also don't typically see too many kids getting drafted out of New York City high schools, but Monsignor McClancy in Queens is on a good run lately, also having churned out second rounder Quentin Holmes (Indians) and fifth rounder Charlie Neuweiler (Royals) in the 2017 draft.

19-559: RHP Grayson Saunier, Collierville HS [TN]. My rank: #144.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Grayson Saunier did not sign in the nineteenth round, which I think was smart on his part, and will head to Ole Miss to try to build his stock. I think he has a very good chance to do so, with an extremely projectable 6'4" frame, plenty of latent arm strength, and present pitchability that he hasn't been able to showcase much while batting injuries. Saunier does not show consistent velocity, sitting in the upper 80's at times but also reaching back for as much as 96 at others, and that's probably a result of those nagging injuries. He shows great feel to spin both a slider and a curveball, and adds an advanced changeup as well to round out a balanced arsenal. The Memphis-area native has a very athletic delivery and repeats it well, leading to above average command when he's at his best, and that combined with his projectability portend to plenty more velocity in the future. If Saunier can get stronger and stay healthy at Ole Miss, I have no reason not to believe he'll be a top three round pick or better in 2025.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

The Pirates made a huge splash by drafting potential superstar Termarr Johnson fourth overall, then fell back onto a very pitching-heavy strategy that included 15.5 pitchers (Jack Brannigan is a two-way player) over their remaining 20 picks. They targeted a wide variety, from power armed, likely relievers like Brannigan, J.P. Massey, and Cy Nielson to more polished starter types like Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, and Michael Kennedy. Athleticism was a big theme here for many.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-4: SS Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA]. My rank: #3.
Slot value: $7.01 million. Signing bonus: $7.22 million ($213,200 above slot value).
It is very, very easy to dream on Termarr Johnson as a future superstar for the Pirates. Long one of the most famous names in the high school class, he may have been the victim of prospect fatigue this spring as the conversation moved from the top five range to more of the 4-10 range, but by giving him more than seven million dollars to sign at fourth overall, Pittsburgh clearly stayed on him. We're talking about one of the most advanced young hitters we have seen in a long time, one that could reach the majors well before he turns 21. Johnson is an extremely disciplined hitter that takes some of the most professional at bats in the class, looking right at home in the box against the top pitchers in the class. Meanwhile, he puts his barrel on virtually everything he swings at, and if you need proof, here he is barreling up a baseball in the opposite batter's box. It all amounts to a double-plus hit tool that could be 80 grade in time. He's not just a slap hitter, though. Johnson possesses very real, plus power despite standing just 5'9", generating a huge amount of torque and lift from a rotational swing and a very strong lower half and quick wrists. Together, it could amount to 30+ home runs a year with very high on-base percentages, which would be perennial All Star caliber. My only concern with the offensive profile is very, very slight, the true definition of a nitpick, but the barrel isn't in the zone for all that long because he cocks the bat a little before swinging, has a little uppercut, and possesses at ton of bat speed that has the bat here and gone in a flash. But really, everything else about his hit tool is so strong that it's virtually moot. Defensively, he's probably not quite explosive enough to stick at shortstop, but he's very smooth on the dirt and could profile as an above average second baseman that makes all of the routine plays if he doesn't slow down at all. When you're handing out $7 million-plus signing bonuses, playing a premium defensive position like catcher, shortstop, or center field is often a priority, but Johnson's bat is so strong that the Pirates or more than happy to overlook it. For an MLB comp, we can go with peak Daniel Murphy but with better defense and potentially more power if the Atlanta native reaches his ceiling. He's off to a slow start to his pro career, slashing .125/.256/.188 with a 10/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, but he only just turned 18 in June.

CBA-36: RHP Thomas Harrington, Campbell. My rank: #44.
Slot value: $2.15 million. Signing bonus: $2.05 million ($100,300 below slot value).
Thomas Harrington was one of the higher profile risers this spring, and the Pirates will happily grab him in the competitive balance round for below slot value. Lightly recruited out of his North Carolina high school, Harrington walked onto the baseball team at Campbell just up the road from his hometown and immediately found success as a true freshman in the rotation. He took it to another level in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA and a 111/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings and going at least six innings in every single start except for one, and he was only pulled from the one due to a lengthy rain delay. Harrington is one of the most balanced pitchers in the class with very few weaknesses. His fastball has steadily ticked up and now sits in the low 90's with a peak around 96, and he follows it up with a deep arsenal. His slider, curveball, and changeup are all consistently at least average, often above average and occasionally plus, and together they helped him strike out 30% of his opponents. The 6'2" righty's best attribute is his plus command, which helps him execute all of those average to above average pitches with precision and rarely ever hurt himself with walks. It's a very clear starting pitching profile that should move quickly through the minors, and while he may not be an ace, he has a very good chance to be a #3. He's durable, he only turned 21 shortly before the draft, and it's very hard to find any holes in his game.

2-44: LHP Hunter Barco, Florida. My rank: #74.
Slot value: $1.78 million. Signing bonus: $1.53 million ($251,100 below slot value).
While few scouts knew Thomas Harrington's name out of high school, Hunter Barco was one of the most famous prospects in his high school class, earning even some first round interest. He made it to campus at Florida, had a couple of very good but unspectacular seasons as an underclassman, then looked like he was breaking out with a 2.50 ERA and a 69/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings this spring. Unfortunately, he left a mid April start against Vanderbilt with an elbow injury and wound up succumbing to Tommy John surgery, so we won't see him pitch until mid 2023. Still, there is plenty to like. Barco has had inconsistent fastball velocity throughout his amateur career, touching 96-97 on some days and sitting around 90 on others, coming from a lower slot albeit with average life. His plus, sweeping slider is his best pitch, missing a ton of bats as it dives across the plate. He also throws an above average split change to round out his arsenal, giving him a very solid three pitch mix when the fastball velocity is there. The Jacksonville native is aggressive on the mound and pounds the strike zone, leading to low walk rates, though his in-zone command can be inconsistent. He was at his best throughout throughout out 2022 and it looked like he was putting it all together until he got hurt, and all things considered, it's not the worst time to get the surgery since he obviously isn't ready to contribute to the big league club anyways. The 6'4" lefty also brings plenty of projection to the table with an ideal pitcher's frame, and as he gets stronger post-surgery, the Pirates believe he'll be touching the mid 90's much more regularly. It's a high probability #3/#4 starter profile with a floor as a very solid three pitch reliever.

3-83: 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan, Notre Dame. My rank: #184.
Slot value: $770,700. Signing bonus: $770,700.
Jack Brannigan was ranked #164 by MLB Pipeline, #168 by Baseball America, #182 by Prospects Live, and #184 on my board, so it's safe to say this is much earlier than most thought he would go. Not only that, but the Pirates drafted him as a two-way player, so this will be loads of fun to watch. Brannigan (who by the way has to have the most Notre Dame name of all time) has more experience as a hitter, but the talent is equally intriguing on both sides of the ball and I'll admit I may have been too low on him with my ranking. Starting with the bat, he had an up and down 2022 season and slashed .291/.360/.540 with 12 home runs and a 49/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, showing off big physical tools but not always the ability to tap them in games. Although he's a bit undersized at 6', 190 pounds, he's quietly one of the best athletes in the class, not just with above average speed but with his natural ability to just move well on the diamond. There is above average power in the tank due both to his strength as well as that natural athleticism and ability to channel that strength, though his swing can get swoopy leading to some swing and miss concerns. He can sometimes struggle with breaking balls and overall is just not consistent with his hit tool. This could be a case of giving up pitching and finding more rhythm in the box, where his natural ability could take over and make him a 20+ home run hitter with decent on-base percentages. Over at third base, he has a chance to be a plus defender there with an absolute cannon of a right arm and the aforementioned athleticism that touches every part of his game. On the mound, he's considerably more raw and has thrown just 23.1 innings over three years at Notre Dame, but he could throw a lot more than that with Pittsburgh. After pitching sparingly in 2020 and 2021, he took on a slightly larger role in 2022 and posted a 7.93 ERA and a 28/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.2 innings out of the bullpen. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and can touch triple digits at his best, with plenty of arm side run to miss barrels. He adds a rapidly improving slider that is starting to flash plus when he commands it, and he's worked to add a changeup as well. The Chicago-area native has seen his command improve from perhaps 30 grade to 40 grade, which is still comfortably below average but playable. He doesn't need good command with his stuff, just enough to get strike one and elicit chases. With long arm action and that below average command, he's almost certainly a reliever long term unless he gave up hitting right away and focused exclusively on stretching out, which I don't see happening. He hasn't pitched yet in the minors, but he is slashing .250/.366/.400 with two home runs and a 19/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton. 

4-110: LHP Michael Kennedy, Troy HS [NY]. My rank: #92.
Slot value: $554,800. Signing bonus: $1 million ($445,200 above slot value).
Michael Kennedy is a very interesting prospect that you might miss if you're not watching closely, as he's had a bit less exposure up in Upstate New York and doesn't throw particularly hard. Kennedy sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94 and occasionally dipping into the upper 80's, so he does need to add velocity. He flips in an above average, sweepy slider and shows solid feel for his changeup, giving him a good three pitch mix but not one that will stand out among pro prospects. He has a fairly stocky build at 6'1", 205 pounds that lacks projection, but he's a better athlete than you might think and moves very well on the mound. With a crossfire delivery, he gets down the mound with good extension and gets a low release height on his pitches, making them play up. Additionally, the Albany-area native pounds the strike zone with above average command and works those pitches well off each other, making for a very solid all-around product. Now in the Pirates system, it's time to focus on sharpening up his stuff and adding velocity, which I believe he'll do. Throw in that he's extremely young for the class and won't even turn 18 until after Thanksgiving, and you have a kid who could develop into a very solid #3 starter in time.

5-140: OF Tres Gonzalez, Georgia Tech. My rank: #157.
Slot value: $414,600. Signing bonus: $347,500 ($67,100 below slot value).
Tres Gonzalez brings a bit of an old school profile here, a hit-over-power type that could reach the majors quickly. After battering elite Cape Cod League pitching with a barrage of singles last summer, he did the same in the ACC this spring and slashed .339/.458/.474 with five home runs and a 27/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. He's an extremely disciplined hitter that just looks too advanced to be playing college baseball, managing the strike zone as well as anybody in the class and doing so even against elite arms. He also has excellent bat to ball skills, which combined with that approach led to a sub-10% strikeout rate this spring, spraying line drives around the field with a loose, quick swing. Listed at 5'11", 185 pounds, he is not overly physical and does not project for much power at all, and instead will rely on posting high on-base percentages with plenty of singles, doubles, and walks. A plus runner, he'll be able to make the most of those balls he puts in the gaps. The Atlanta-area native played left field for Georgia Tech but might be able to cut it in center field at least in a part time role. That's important, because with his fringy arm, it's hard to profile in left in any role if you can't hit for power. If he does stick in center, there's an outside chance he can play every day if everything else translates up, but the most likely projection is that of a fourth outfielder that gets on base at a high clip. So far, he's slashing .333/.407/.375 with a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton.

6-170: RHP Derek Diamond, Mississippi. My rank: #187.
Slot value: $311,600. Signing bonus: $311,600.
Derek Diamond has been an interesting prospect throughout his time at Ole Miss, but it's hard to know what to make of him. He jumped into the Rebels' rotation right away as a true freshman in 2020 and showed well, then battled through an up and down 2021 season to still make 20 appearances (14 starts) and throw 75.1 innings. 2022 was more down than up, as he posted a 6.89 ERA and a 57/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings, mostly as a starter, but barely pitched in the postseason as manager Mike Bianco chose to put his faith in more consistent arms. Just as it was looking like he would fall out of day two consideration, he showed very well in pre-draft bullpens and got teams interested again. Diamond can touch 97 with riding action on his fastball but, like Hunter Barco, doesn't always hold that velocity and can dip into the upper 80's. His slider and changeup both flash above average, but again, are inconsistent. The 6'2" righty stands out best for his athleticism on the mound, enabling him to repeat his delivery extremely well and show consistently above average command, which is why he's managed to stick as a starter all this time. When the fastball is around 90 and the secondaries aren't biting, no amount of command is going to make that work, but the stuff he's shown at his peak including just before the draft absolutely will. The Pirates will want to help build up Diamond's stamina to help get him more consistent with his stuff, and if it clicks, it's hard not to like a plus command arm that gets up into the mid 90's with two quality secondaries. He's off to a strong start in the Florida Complex League, tossing four shutout innings on three hits and one walk while striking out four in three relief appearances.

7-200: RHP J.P. Massey, Minnesota. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $243,000. Signing bonus: $150,000 ($93,000 below slot value).
Big Ten evaluators have been waiting for a J.P. Massey breakout for some time, but haven't gotten it just yet. He was draft eligible as a junior in 2021, but walked 33 batters in 20 innings and returned to school. While you can't call it a breakout, he did get himself figured out a little bit in 2022, holding down a rotation spot and posting a 6.52 ERA and a 63/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings. It's odd to say this about a 22 year old college senior, but Massey is a projection play. His fastball currently sits in the low 90's and touches the mid 90's at best, and he adds a slew of secondaries in a slider, curveball, and changeup that are all extremely inconsistent but show promise. Throw on below average command stemming from troubles with his mechanics, and you have yourself a project. But Massey is listed at 6'5", 205 pounds with great athleticism and moves very naturally on the mound, so scouts continued to come back and watch his starts even as he struggled to a career 6.70 ERA and 17.1% walk rate over four years at Minnesota. The Chicago native does have feel for spin as well on top of his natural athleticism, and a change of scenery away from Minneapolis and into a pro development system might finally help him pull it all together. It's probably a relief profile though unless the Pirates can work some miracles.

8-230: LHP Cy Nielson, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $193,200. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($18,200 below slot value).
Cy Nielson has been known for some time now as one of the more electric left handers in the Rocky Mountain region, and after walking 17.3% of his opponents in 2021, his command took a big step forward in 2022 as he dropped that number to 5.1%. The result was a 3.21 ERA and a 45/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings as a reliever, as well as some impressive outings in the Cape Cod League. Nielson sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can get up to 97, showing great riding action that helps him miss plenty of barrels. His slider is fairly inconsistent, but flashes above average and can be especially potent against left handed hitters from his crossfire delivery. The Utah native also adds a changeup and has gotten much more consistent with his delivery, making for a serious MLB relief candidate. He has some experience as a starter on the Cape, but it seems best for the Pirates to play it straight up and let his three pitch mix continue to eat in a relief role. If he can hold his command together and get more consistent with his secondary stuff, he could be a highly valuable left handed reliever in short order. So far, he has allowed three runs in 3.2 innings between the Florida Complex League and Low A Bradenton, with three strikeouts to four walks.

14-410: LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Julian Bosnic had significant day two interest in 2021, where he posted a 2.84 ERA and a 78/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings for South Carolina, but bet on himself and went back to school. Unfortunately, he wound up missing the entire 2022 season with an elbow injury, so he signed with the Pirates for $125,000 in the fourteenth round. Bosnic has big stuff, starting with an explosive low to mid 90's fastball that can get up to 97 with excellent riding life. He drops in a hammer curveball that plays extremely well off his fastball, giving him two potential plus pitches to work off while the changeup is a bit behind. As a nearly-23 year old two pitch guy who has never stuck around in a rotation for long, the 6'3" lefty has an uphill climb if he wants to start, though he does show enough command at his best to give it a shot if the Pirates are willing to be patient. More likely, though, is a future where he stays in the bullpen and maxes out that excellent fastball/curveball combination with enough command to make it work. Of course, the first step will be getting healthy.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

This was a classic Mike Rizzo draft, with perhaps the only thing missing being an injured pitcher. He began the draft with a bang, taking the player with perhaps the loudest physical tools in the class and exactly the guy I wanted to see selected. From there, as usual, he pivoted to extreme caution, drafting more for present skill level than future projection aside from a few high school picks. I was a huge fan of the Elijah Green pick, but the rest is a bit underwhelming to me as a Nationals fan. Very few pitchers taken here have much life on their fastball, so even if many of them can reach back for 96-97 or better, virtually all of their fastballs play below that velocity and this organization is not very good at creating life in those instances. Interestingly, many of the pitchers drafted here instead rely on their ability to spin a breaking ball. For the most part, though, it was a position player-heavy class that featured five bats in the first six picks and 13/20 overall. Lastly, I will commend Rizzo for his willingness to spend not only the entire bonus pool, but to go over it by 5% and take on the penalties, which at that level are completely worthwhile. He spread the pool around in a very straightforward manner, paying exact slot value to seven of the first nine picks, taking nearly a $150,000 discount on tenth rounder Murphy Stehly, and spreading around the remaining money on fourth rounder Brenner Cox ($440,700 over), sixth rounder Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva ($66,100 over), eleventh rounder Luke Young ($125,000 over), and twelfth rounder Nick Peoples ($50,000 over).
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-5: OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #2.
Slot value: $6.5 million. Signing bonus: $6.5 million.
Far and away the Nationals' best pick in this draft, I would have taken Elijah Green in this spot too and he comes with just massive upside. Elijah's father, Eric, played college football in Nationals territory at Liberty University before embarking on a ten year NFL career that included stops with the Steelers, Dolphins, Ravens, and Jets in the 90's. To say that that athleticism was passed down to Elijah would be an understatement, as the younger Green has some of the most explosive tools in the entire draft class. Strongly built at 6'3", he easily taps his true plus power in games with a big, healthy uppercut, but he's so strong that he can stay perfectly under control and still crush the ball naturally. He doesn't need to sell out at all to tap that power, which is important because his hit tool is a little more in question. Green swung and missed a fair amount on the showcase circuit, then really struggled early in his senior year at IMG Academy and looked like he may fall out of the top ten picks. However, he righted the ship in a very big way in the second half of the season, and by the time the draft rolled around, he had completely reclaimed his status as arguably the top player in the class. The Orlando-area native will likely always be a bit streaky, but when he's going well, there is no hitter in this class with more upside. And he can look to both a former and current teammate for guidance, too. As a junior, Green played in the same IMG Academy outfield as James Wood, who also struggled his senior year against IMG's extremely difficult schedule. Wood, like Green a potential top ten pick entering the season, never turned his season around and fell to the Padres in the second round, and you probably know the rest by now. He did nothing but hit in the Padres' system and was, in my opinion, the centerpiece in the return for Juan Soto. Green has the luxury of already having turned in the right direction before he hit pro ball, and those two will be a ton of fun to watch hit together. Now I've spent all this time on Green's bat, and I haven't even mentioned his other tools. In addition to showing potential 40 home run power, he is a plus-plus runner that could have been drafted for his speed alone, flying around the bases and the outfield. Throw in a plus-plus arm that can stop runners in their tracks, and Green could win Gold Gloves in center field. The Nationals have a few prospects, notably Wood, Robert Hassell, and Jeremy De La Rosa, who are trying to stick in center, but I think Green will be the one to push them out. There is just so much upside here it's unbelievable, but he will have to manage those strikeouts and unfortunately if anything will unravel his ascent to stardom, that will be it. He showcased exactly what kind of player he is in his Florida Complex League debut, slashing .302/.404/.535 with two home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games, good for a 40.4% strikeout rate.

2-45: RHP Jake Bennett, Oklahoma. My rank: #87.
Slot value: $1.73 million. Signing bonus: $1.73 million.
I came away impressed with Jake Bennett in his start against Virginia Tech in the Blacksburg Super Regional, and given that he fits what Mike Rizzo looks for in a pitcher, I thought he would make sense for the Nationals in the third round. Rizzo popped him a round earlier than that, which doesn't surprise me, looking to get a safe back-end starter that can move through the system quickly. Bennett joins former Oklahoma pitchers Jake Irvin and Cade Cavalli as well as former Oklahoma catcher Brady Lindsly, and interestingly enough, he actually played high school ball with Cavalli as well. After a so-so sophomore year, Bennett broke out in a big way in 2022, posting a 3.69 ERA and a 133/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings, with those 117 innings leading all of Division I baseball. So yeah, you could say he's a workhorse. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to about 96, coming in with average movement that won't miss many bats on its own. He flips in a short slider that functions as a solid average pitch, while his above average changeup is easily his best pitch right now. The Tulsa-area native commands both his fastball and his offspeeds extremely well and that's probably his most impressive attribute, effectively working his pitches off of each other to make them all play up. He's listed at 6'6", 235 pounds and looks it, with big, broad shoulders and a very durable looking frame that should lend itself extremely well to starting. I expect him to move quickly through the farm system and be up in the majors with Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Cade Cavalli soon, though because he only has one above average pitch and I don't expect him to develop another, his ceiling is likely limited as a #4 starter.

3-84: 3B Trey Lipscomb, Tennessee. My rank: #137.
Slot value: $758,900. Signing bonus: $758,900.
Trey Lipscomb gives the Nationals a hometown pick, having grown up in Frederick, Maryland about forty miles northwest of Washington and having played high school ball one town closer in Urbana. He played three years at Tennessee and got into just 37 games in total, but finally cracked the starting lineup in his fourth year and never looked back, slashing .355/.428/.717 with 22 home runs and a 37/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games. His numbers were aided by Tennessee's hitter-friendly home park, but you still don't hit like that in the SEC unless you're doing something very right. Lipscomb doesn't have a carrying tool, but brings a lot to the table. He has a simple swing from the right side that keeps the barrel in the zone for a long time, helping him consistently tap his above average raw power in games and do damage to all fields. He rarely strikes out, making plenty of contact on pitches all over the zone, giving him a very well-rounded offensive profile that could produce 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages at his ceiling. With above average defense at third base, there aren't many holes in his game overall. Lipscomb did turn 22 in June and I'm not sold on the power playing with wood bats, so that will be something to watch going forward. He should move rather quickly and could challenge for that third base role sooner rather than later, and he's already slashing .280/.280/.420 with one home run and an 11/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games at Low A Fredericksburg.

4-111: OF Brenner Cox, Rock Hill HS [TX]. My rank: #209.
Slot value: $549,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($440,700 above slot value).
This was a bit of an unexpected pick, as Brenner Cox ranked #219 on Prospects Live, #351 on Baseball America, and was not ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 250, so my ranking of #209 was actually his best showing. I went to a Rock Hill High School baseball game this spring because it is ten minutes from my apartment and because it was the closest Mets first round pick Jett Williams would be playing to me, and a Rock Hill parent pointed Cox out to me to keep an eye on. He's a great athlete, looking like a natural on both sides of the ball with smooth actions and a wiry, projectable 6'3" frame. A plus runner, he makes things happen on the bases and in the outfield, where he projects to stick in center field with an above average arm that has touched 93 on the mound. Well, now that the Nationals have acquired James Wood and Robert Hassell and drafted Elijah Green in addition to Cox, they're suddenly deep in center field prospects (you can throw Jeremy De La Rosa in that mix as well), but Cox does have the skillset to profile there. At the plate, he shows off a short, simple swing from the left side of the plate that is geared for line drives at present, taking good at bats and making plenty of contact. It's certainly a projection play, as the Dallas-area native has fringy power for now while he waits to grow into that tall frame. The Nationals will want to get him bulked up in the weight room, and in time he could tap average or better power. While the hit tool is a strength, it's not as proven as some other names in this class, and that's why he wasn't as famous as most others drafted in this range. The Nationals clearly believe in both the hit tool and the power coming along in pro ball, as they went more than $400,000 above slot value to sign him away from a Texas commitment. In a brief look in the Florida Complex League, he looked good and slashed .286/.366/.400 with one home run and a 14/5 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games. 

5-141: OF Jared McKenzie, Baylor. My rank: #180.
Slot value: $410,500. Signing bonus: $410,500.
The Nationals are buying low on Jared McKenzie, who has been trending in the wrong direction for some time now. He hit the ground running at Baylor and slashed .389/.453/.583 with just a 13% strikeout rate over his first two seasons, setting himself up on the fringes of the first round conversation. However, he really struggled to make an impact in the Cape Cod League and slashed just .225/.316/.245 with a 31% strikeout rate there, putting pressure on his junior campaign. 2022 wound up being up and down, as he slumped to start the season before finding his footing a little bit and slashing .288/.388/.517 with eleven home runs and a 64/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. It was nice to see him find that power stroke as the season went on, but the strikeout rate never came down and he finished at 26.3%, more than double his first two seasons. McKenzie has a wide setup at the plate and gets his barrel long through the zone, with great feel to find that barrel and make hard contact to all fields. He got a little too power conscious in 2022 and got away from his approach, but the innate ability to control the strike zone and send balls to the gaps with regularity is there. He has real power to the pull side and hit one ball 489 feet against Kansas this year, though I'm not quite sold on how well it will play in pro ball with wood bats. The Austin-area native will definitely need to find that balanced approach in pro ball, and he likely projects for about 10-15 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, with a chance for better if he recaptures his underclass form and finds a way to make the power play up. Defensively, he won't challenge Elijah Green, Brenner Cox, and co. for center field, as he runs well but doesn't have a great arm and may end up in left. To me it's a fourth outfield projection with more variability than you'd typically find in a college bat. He's striking out a ton but is still making an impact early in his pro career, slashing .357/.379/.679 with one home run and a 14/0 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games at Low A Fredericksburg.

6-171: 3B Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva, Notre Dame Catholic HS [ON]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $308,900. Signing bonus: $375,000 ($66,100 above slot value).
This was an under the radar signing, as Nathaniel Ochoa Leyva went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250, Baseball America's top 500, and Prospects Lives' top 600. It still required a slight over slot bonus to sign him away from an Alabama commitment, where the Nationals will work to refine what is a fairly raw skill set for now. Ochoa Leyva is a big, physical kid at 6'4", showing a big league body with long limbs and plenty of space to tack on strength. He has explosive hands that further portend to future power gains, though he is a ways away. The Toronto-area native makes plenty of contact in the zone and lays off bad fastballs, but does struggle to recognize spin and pitchers will attack that in pro ball. It's understandable coming from a cold weather area like Toronto, but will require work. He lacked much impact in the MLB Draft League and slashed .224/.354/.269 in 31 games there, though he did show off that patient approach with a healthy 14.6% walk rate. He has played plenty of shortstop in high school and in the MLB Draft League but the Nationals drafted him as a third baseman, and I can't comment further since I haven't seen any video of his defense. Ochoa Leyva will require patience but brings upside as a power hitting third baseman down the line. In six games in the Florida Complex League, he hit .167/.375/.167 with eight strikeouts to five walks.

7-201: RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian. My rank: #206.
Slot value: $241,600. Signing bonus: $241,600.
Riley Cornelio has been a known draft commodity for a while. He earned top three round interest in 2019 out of high school, but made it to campus at TCU where he was again draft eligible as a sophomore in 2021. However, he struggled to throw strikes and earn innings in that deep Horned Frogs pitching staff and threw just 17.2 innings over his first two seasons, so he returned to school in 2022 to earn more exposure. While he certainly got it, the results were more good than great, and he finished with a 4.68 ERA and a 77/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings in the rotation. There were ups, such as a run of five straight quality starts to open Big 12 play and drop his season ERA to 2.87, and there were downs, including his next two starts in which he allowed eleven earned runs over 3.1 innings against Oklahoma State and Florida State. Cornelio has big stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball as a starter and touching as high as 99 in relief, though the pitch can be fairly straight. His best pitch is a deep, downer slider that helps him rack up strikeouts and miss plenty of bats, and he also uses a fringier curveball and changeup to keep hitters off balance. Back in high school, the Colorado Springs native had a bit of a wild delivery with a lot of moving parts, but he's cleaned that up considerably in Fort Worth. His command is still fringy, but it's a lot better than it was and that helped him stick in the rotation for the year. The 6'3" righty is trending in the right direction even if he's already 22, and the Nationals see a late bloomer who may be able to make it work as a starter if he can take a step forward with his curveball or changeup as well as continue improving his command. Personally, I see more of a reliever here that can pitch off his fastball/slider combination and run the former into the upper 90's more often, where it won't need to rely on movement as much.

8-231: RHP Chance Huff, Georgia Tech. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $191,700. Signing bonus: $191,700.
Chance Huff has another classic Nationals pitching profile with power stuff, a big frame, and some track record in a big conference. He began his career at Vanderbilt, but walked 16 batters in 18.1 innings as a freshman in 2019 and didn't pitch in the shortened 2020 season. He transferred to Georgia Tech as a junior, where he had a 9.99 ERA mostly out of the bullpen in 2021, but got his shot in the rotation in 2022 and took a step forward with a 6.98 ERA and a much more impressive 74/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 in shorter stints, though it lacks life and plays well below its velocity. His real skill is his ability to spin the breaking ball, showing both a curve and a slider that flash plus with late, tight bite that helps him miss plenty of bats. There is a changeup in there, but it's a fourth pitch for now. The 6'4" righty is big and durable, and now having cleaned up his command to average, he does have a chance to start. To do so, he'll either need to take a step forward with his changeup and pitch heavily off his offspeed stuff, or he'll need to find a way to add some life to his fastball. The Nationals are one of the worst organizations in the league at the latter, so unless he can do it on his own, focusing on that changeup is probably the way to go. As a senior sign, the Florida Panhandle native did turn 22 in April, and he allowed one run over 3.2 innings in the Florida Complex League, striking out four and walking one.

9-261: C Maxwell Romero Jr., Miami. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $165,700. Signing bonus: $165,700.
Like Chance Huff, Maxwell Romero also began his career at Vanderbilt, and he rode the bench with Huff during that shortened 2020 season as neither got into a game. Huff left for Georgia Tech in 2021 while Romero stayed behind, where he got limited playing time behind A's 2021 fifth rounder CJ Rodriguez, and then transferred to Miami for 2022 and slashed .272/.378/.507 with 12 home runs and a 67/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. He's a big time power bat that can really smoke the ball and elevate with authority, with an uppercut swing and a very thick, strong 6'1" frame. He's mostly a mistake hitter, punishing pitchers who leave stuff over the plate, so a little game planning can often be effective against him. In the Cape Cod League, where he faced elite pitching every day, he slashed a very respectable .264/.327/.495 with five home runs in 27 games, but also struck out at a 29.7% rate. Pro pitching may be a bit of a transition for him as he learns how to tap his power against pitches outside his wheelhouse. The Miami-area native goes to a no-stride approach with two strikes, though it often comes at the expense of impact at the plate. Defensively, he stands out for a strong throwing arm that will help control the running game, with decent but improving glovework. He should be able to stick behind the plate, but if he can't, it may be tough for his bat to profile at first base or a corner outfield spot with below average speed. He's off to a slow start at Low A Fredericksburg, slashing .133/.235/.133 with nine strikeouts to two walks through five games.

11-321: RHP Luke Young, Midland JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $250,000 ($125,000 against bonus pool).
It's a long, lonely road from San Angelo to Midland out in West Texas, a world away from the constant Five O'Clock 500 that is I-495. Luke Young, though, has a chance to thrive inside the Beltway and I think he's the Nationals' best sleeper in this draft. He pitched very well as a sophomore out at Midland JC, posting a 3.95 ERA and a 110/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings against very solid Texas JuCo competition. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96 consistently, with better life than the typical Nationals draftee. Young can really spin a breaking ball, working with both a downer curveball and a sweepier slider that look like future above average pitches. He'll need to tighten them up and get a little more consistent, but the foundation is there. I haven't seen much of a changeup to this point. There is some stabbing action in the back of his delivery and he throws with some effort, but the San Angelo native fills up the strike zone well and projects for at least average command. At a listed 6'3", 170 pounds, he also has plenty of projection remaining and could add even more velocity. It's a fun profile to work with and he comes with some upside as a mid-rotation starter, and given that he won't turn 21 until October, there is plenty of time to develop.

12-351: OF Nick Peoples, Northview HS [CA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $175,000 ($50,000 against bonus pool).
There is some real upside here, but it will take time to reach. Nick Peoples is a big, tall, switch hitting outfielder that signed away from a New Mexico State commitment for $50,000 above the day three allotment. Standing 6'5", he has long arms and legs that help him put considerable leverage on the ball, showing off true plus power that produces some towering shots to the pull side. His swing is cleaner and more direct from the left side, but he can still really crush a ball from the right side. There is some swing and miss in his game that will take time to iron out, but switch hitters often develop slower anyways and given that he's young for a high school senior, having turned 18 after the draft, there is plenty of time to get it figured out. He's also a good runner that will attempt center field, though the Nats are fairly crowded there. The Southern California native represents a long term wild card for the Nationals' player developments system that could pay off some time around 2026-2027.

13-381: RHP Marquis Grissom Jr., Georgia Tech. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Any legacy Expos fans out there? In 1988, the franchise drafted Marquis Grissom in the third round out of Florida A&M, who stuck with Montreal through the 1994 season and eventually hit 227 home runs and stole 429 bases over a 17 year career. 34 years after the Expos drafted Grissom, they took his son in the thirteenth round and will hope for similar success, albeit on the mound. The younger Marquis Grissom was a well-known draft name out of high school in 2020, but made it to campus at Georgia Tech after the shortened draft and was eligible again as a sophomore. He never quite put it together in Atlanta, posting a 5.69 ERA and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.2 innings in his two years, but the underlying ability and bloodlines make him an intriguing prospect. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has been up to 97, though like many other pitchers in this Nationals class it's pretty straight. His best quality is his ability to spin a breaking ball, with a slider that shows sweeping action at times and more vertical break at others. Grissom also adds a changeup, rounding out his arsenal. The 6'2" righty throws with some effort and his command can get very scattered, pointing to a future in the bullpen. There he can potentially approach the upper 90's with his fastball and get more consistent bite on his slider, and as a draft eligible sophomore who only turned 21 just after the draft, he has a little extra time to figure things out. In 3.2 innings in the Florida Complex League, he allowed two runs (one earned) while striking out and walking two apiece.

14-411: SS Cortland Lawson, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Trey Lipscomb and Cortland Lawson are following an eerily similar career path. Both grew up northwest of Washington, both headed to Tennessee for college and barely played until this year, both broke out in 2022 and started nearly every game on the left side of the Tennessee infield, and now both are with their hometown Nationals. Indeed, while Lipscomb grew up in Frederick and might consider the Orioles more his hometown team, Lawson grew up in the Loudoun County suburb of Potomac Falls about twenty miles northwest of the city on Route 7 and attended Paul VI High School in Fairfax, then Dominion High School back in Potomac Falls. He didn't get into a game in the shortened 2020 season and made just two starts in 2021, but slashed .269/.402/.512 with 12 home runs and a 65/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games in 2022 as Tennessee's starting shortstop. Lawson does not have a carrying tool, rather doing a lot of things well. He has some moderate power from a wiry 6'2" frame and can do damage to all fields, adding up to fringe average or perhaps even average power. He works a lot of deep counts and worked an impressive 16.4% walk rate in 2022, but he also struck out 25.4% of the time and that number jumped to 29.8% in SEC conference play, where he hit just .210/.344/.370. There are real questions about his hit tool, and there isn't quite enough power in there to buy him much slack. A solid defender that can play all over the field, he profiles as a utility infielder if he makes enough contact to tap his power. Though he's in his third year of college, he's actually older than the fourth year Lipscomb and already turned 22 back in May. Playing alongside Lipscomb once again at Low A Fredericksburg, he's slashing .130/.286/.261 with one home run and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games.

15-441: RHP Kyle Luckham, Arizona State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
Kyle Luckham began his career at Cal State Fullerton and spent most of his three years there in the rotation with middling results, then transferred to Arizona State as a senior and put up a 4.36 ERA and a 72/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings. They're not spectacular numbers, but he did lead an injury-riddled Sun Devil pitching staff in innings pitched by nearly twenty and that unremarkable looking 4.36 ERA was the lowest of any pitcher who threw more than three innings on the season. He sits in the low 90's with a fastball that shows average movement, but he has great feel to spin a breaking ball and can miss bats with his curveball and slider. A changeup rounds out the arsenal, and his funky delivery helps make everything play perhaps a tick better than its movement and velocity dictate. Given his durability and propensity for filling up the strike zone, the Nationals could get creative with Luckham to keep him in the rotation. Either an extra tick of velocity, some added life to his fastball, or an improved changeup, in addition to better pitch usage to get away from that fastball, could help the 6'2" righty sneak up as a back-end starter. I imagine he could move fairly quickly and get onto that back-and-forth shuttle between Rochester and Washington soon, though the ceiling is very limited here. Indeed, he has already taken well to pro ball and has thrown six shutout innings on just one hit, one walk, and six strikeouts between the Florida Complex League and Low A Fredericksburg, the only pitcher in the Nationals draft class to pitch above the FCL so far.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Marlins are one of the better organizations out there when it comes to pitching development and really struggle with hitters. So naturally, they drafted a near-finished product with the bat in the first round then proceeded to take eleven consecutive pitchers in rounds 2-12, highlighted by two expensive high schoolers at the top and a slew of power college arms. I don't love the final list of names here, and I really didn't like the Jacob Berry pick to start things off. They prioritized velocity and feel for spin here, and did pick up a very interesting sleeper in twelfth rounder Cole Kirschsieper.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-6: 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State. My rank: #18.
Slot value: $6.04 million. Signing bonus: $6 million ($37,500 below slot value).
I'll be honest, of all the picks in the first round, this one left me scratching my head the most even if it wasn't necessarily a surprise. Brooks Lee (#5 on my board) has a very similar profile to Jacob Berry (#18 on my board) except that he hits for even more power and provides much more value on defense, and he was still available here and wound up signing for $300,000 less. Obviously teams look for different things from players and I'm never going to call my board the gospel, but these players being so similar and Lee clearly being better at the same things is just odd to me. If Berry goes on to have a significantly better career than Lee, I can eat my words. Anyways, let's talk about Jacob Berry. He originally began his career at Arizona, where he put up a monster freshman season slashing .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs, then transferred to LSU as a sophomore. The SEC proved to be no problem for the Phoenix-area native, as he slashed .370/.464/.630 with 15 home runs and a 22/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games as a draft-eligible sophomore whose May birthday makes him the age of a college junior. Berry is a switch hitter, built like a boulder full of solid muscle at 6', 210 pounds. He takes a very simple, direct hack from both sides of the plate with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. After running a solid 19.5% strikeout rate as a freshman last year, he cut that to 8.9% this spring as he just barreled up everything he saw. Despite the build, he's actually a hit-over-power guy that thrives by his ability to find the barrel. He does not boast the elite top-end exit velocities you typically see at the top of the draft, especially as a first baseman, relying on a high quantity of hard hit balls rather than absolutely crushing it here and there. That means he'll probably move pretty quickly through the minors and he could be up as soon as next season, with the potential to hit 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he manned third base for LSU this spring but probably profiles as a first baseman going forward, with clunky actions at the hot corner and an arm that might be a little bit light. There is also a chance he could crack it in left field. Regardless, he will provide value with his bat and should hit enough to play every day no matter where he winds up. It's a very solid mid to late first round profile, but the Marlins are really, really banking on his above average raw power showing up with wood bats to pick him in the top ten without a discount. So far, he's slashing .230/.327/.333 with two home runs and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter. 

2-46: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS [OH]. My rank: #39.
Slot value: $1.7 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million.
I like this pick a lot better, and I'm surprised the Marlins didn't have to go above slot value to sign Jacob Miller away from that Louisville commitment. A second to third round pick heading into the season, he had a fantastic spring that pushed him into late first round conversations, but lasted until the Marlins in the early second round. He saw a velocity bump this spring and sat in the low to mid 90's, touching as high as 99, but he stands out most for his feel for spin. Miller throws a nasty, plus curveball with wicked two-plane bite in addition to a tighter, firmer slider that looks above average and a solid changeup with some run. The 6'2" righty pounds the strike zone with solid average command for a teenager, with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. He's not the greatest athlete on the mound, but the present stuff combined with the size and command are plenty enough to over look that. Expect him to miss a ton of bats in the low minors with that power arsenal, and he could be a very solid #3 starter for Miami in time. The central Ohio native should thrive in this system, and here is some really good video giving a taste of what Marlins fans are in for. So far through three short Florida Complex League starts, he has a has allowed five runs (three earned) with three strikeouts to two walks over 3.2 innings.

3-85: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS [MO]. My rank: #91.
Slot value: $747,100. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($752,900 above slot value).
39 picks later, Karson Milbrandt got nearly as much to sign away from his Vanderbilt commitment as Miller did from his Louisville commitment. Milbrandt from Liberty, like Miller from Liberty Union, had a strong spring that moved him up about a round or so. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, a couple ticks behind Miller, but he does get much more life on the pitch with huge spin rates and plenty of running action. His slider and curveball took a step forward this spring and both now flash above average, while his changeup is inconsistent but solid. Milbrandt comes from a low three quarters slot that makes for a very deceptive look, making for a very enticing profile that the Marlins can get creative with. There is plenty of projection in his 6'2" frame and he moves well on the mound, though there is some work to be done to remain a starter. For now, he sometimes struggles to repeat his release point and shows fringy command, which does point to some relief risk. His offspeed stuff taking a step forward does help in that regard, though. If the Marlins can get the Kansas City-area native more consistent with his mechanics and help that offspeed stuff continue on the positive trend it was on, they could have a really interesting arm on their hands.

4-112: RHP Marcus Johnson, Duke. My rank: #152.
Slot value: $543,800. Signing bonus: $510,000 ($33,800 below slot value).
Moving on to the college ranks, the Marlins believe they're buying low on Marcus Johnson, who was in the second round conversation entering the season. He was excellent out of the Duke bullpen as a sophomore last year, with a 3.05 ERA and a 59/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, then transitioned to the rotation this year with mixed results. His ERA ballooned to 5.61 while he ran a still-solid 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, that K rate dipping slightly from 26.5% to 23.8% while his walk rate rose slightly from 5.4% to 7.8%. His fastball touches 97 in short stints but sat more in the low 90's as a starter, coming in with nice riding action that helps it play a little above that velocity when located. He snapped off a plus slider out of the bullpen that looked more above average as a starter, also adding in a solid changeup. With a big, projectable 6'5" frame and a repeatable, short arm delivery that helps him pound the strike zone, he does have what it takes to start even with the more ordinary stuff. Even in the starting role, he did show flashes of that true bat missing stuff and the Marlins believe they can get him showing it more consistently even in those extended outings, which could make him a #3 starter if it all works out. If he does move back to the bullpen, the Southern California native has already proven he can thrive off that fastball/slider combination while controlling at bats and overpowering hitters. So far, he has allowed four runs over 4.1 innings with five strikeouts to four walks in the Florida Complex League.

5-142: RHP Josh White, California. My rank: #200.
Slot value: $406,500. Signing bonus: $406,500.
The Marlins went back to the college ranks in the fifth round to pick up another power arm, taking Josh White out of Cal. He was great as a sophomore in 2021 with a 2.79 ERA and an 81/25 strikeout to walk ratio, but took a step back as a junior with a 5.05 ERA and a 91/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings. White sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for up to 97, coming in with steep angle and some minor running action. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball, flashing above average with both his slider and curveball at his best. The San Francisco Bay Area native does add a changeup, but it's a fourth pitch for now that he doesn't have much feel for. With an upright delivery and average athleticism, he doesn't move as well on the mound as perhaps a guy like Karson Milbrandt or Marcus Johnson, and his command is very inconsistent. The Marlins are buying the arm strength on a guy who has flashes serious bat missing stuff at his best and has thrived at times in the Pac-12, combined with that great feel for spin. The 6'1" righty doesn't come with a ton of projection but could work in as a back-end starter or a breaking ball-heavy reliever, and increased velocity on his fastball could help make up for its lack of life. So far, he has allowed four runs through four innings in the Florida Complex League, striking out six while walking three.

6-172: RHP Jared Poland, Louisville. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $306,400. Signing bonus: $149,000 ($157,400 below slot value).
Jared Poland is the first big money saver to help afford Karson Milbrandt, but he still brings value in his own right. A two-way player early in his Louisville career, he gave up hitting after his sophomore season and saw his pitching take a step forward as a result. 2022 was his best year yet, where he posted a 3.46 ERA and a 103/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, but it plays below its velocity because he puts steep angle on it with average life. Poland makes his money on his offspeed pitches, including an above average slider with deep bite and a solid average changeup. The 6' righty locates his stuff well and loves to go right after hitters, helping his stuff play up further except when his fastball catches too much plate. A senior sign that will turn 23 this offseason, the Marlins will want him to move a little quicker and he may fit best in a bullpen role, where he can pitch off his offspeed stuff and add a tick to that generic fastball. It's not too dissimilar a profile to Josh White a pick earlier, except that he's a year older with better command. He has thrown 2.2 shutout innings so far in the Florida Complex League, striking out two and walking three.

12-352: LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois. My rank: #186.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
This pick could be a very interesting sleeper, especially in an organization that develops pitching as well as the Marlins do. Cole Kirschsieper rose to prominence with a flat out incredible run through last summer, in which he played in the Appalachian League, with the US Collegiate National Team, and in the Cape Cod League, where he regularly faced elite competition. Between the three, he allowed just one earned run over 36 innings (0.25 ERA) and struck out 54 against 17 walks, putting himself firmly on my radar entering the season. While he couldn't quite build off that success, he was still solid at Illinois this spring and posted a 3.17 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. Kirschsieper doesn't throw all that hard, sitting around 90 and touching 93, so he'll need to add velocity. The slider is average with some sweeping action, while his above average changeup misses bats and keeps hitters off balance. The 5'11" lefty comes from a deceptive, low three quarters slot that makes all of his stuff play up, working east-west and commanding everything pretty well. He does not presently throw hard enough to get major league hitters out, so adding at least a tick of velocity if not a little more will be very important. Beyond that, sharpening his offspeed pitches would be useful, but they're playable now. If the Chicago-area native moves to the bullpen, he has enough life on his fastball to play well with only a small uptick to perhaps 91-93 as opposed to the 89-91 he sits around now being very useful. Despite being on the smaller side, I would like to see how he can play in the rotation for now. He's looked good so far, with three shutout innings in the Florida Complex League with four strikeouts and no walks.

14-412: 1B Torin Montgomery, Missouri. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
The Marlins drafted Torin Montgomery in the 35th round out of high school in 2019, and three years later they got their guy. He began his college career at Boise State but transferred to Missouri after one season, and in 2022 he caught fire at the plate, slashing .362/.456/.542 with seven home runs and a 37/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. Big and strong at 6'3", 230 pounds, he can really smoke a baseball with the best of them, showing plus raw power in the tank although he doesn't tap it very often. For now, he hits the ball on the ground too much and doesn't elevate with as much authority as he's capable of, so working on getting more loft into his swing will be important in his development. Not just a pure slugger, Montgomery makes a lot of contact from the right side and rarely swings and misses, though he can be a tad aggressive. It's a very enticing bat with the right development, and he'll have to hit because he's limited to first base defensively. The Seattle-area native doesn't run all that well and looks like a potential platoon/bench bat in the future. So far, he's slashing .259/.341/.407 with two home runs and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

16-472: SS Brett Roberts, Florida State. My rank: #217.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
The Marlins finally came home to the Sunshine State in the sixteenth round, grabbing Brett Roberts out of Florida State. Roberts is not a native Floridian, having grown up in Atlanta and beginning his college career at Tennessee Tech, but he adjusted very well to Tallahassee and the ACC slate to land himself in the sixteenth round. In 2022, he slashed .300/.372/.461 with five home runs and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, holding down an everyday role for the Seminoles. A pro hitter, he makes a ton of contact from the right side and struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances, regularly putting the ball in play and making the defense work. He uses the whole field and hits it where they ain't, but the overall impact is a question. He produces unremarkable exit velocities and I rarely see him turn on the ball, so most of his power will come to the gaps. An above average runner, he can play all over the field and projects as a solid utility infielder, showing plenty enough range and arm strength to give you confidence at shortstop. He's off to a hot start in the Florida Complex League, slashing .256/.333/.488 with three home runs and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games.

19-562: C Carmine Lane, South Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Carmine Lane represents the one and only player from South Florida in the Marlins' draft class. A native of Lake Worth about sixty miles north of downtown Miami, he attended American Heritage High School in Delray Beach before matriculating north to USF in Tampa. He has gotten better and better each year there, including a huge 2022 in which he slashed .332/.390/.523 with ten home runs and a 38/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He takes huge, healthy hacks from the right side that help him really stroke the ball to the pull side, but he still ran a solid 14.3% strikeout rate with strong bat to ball skills. He may need to tone down his approach just a little bit as he moves from the AAC to pro ball, but his combination of leverage and bat to ball skills aren't easy to find in the second to last round of the draft. Interestingly, the Marlins drafted him as a catcher despite having played every single position on the diamond except catcher for USF, even pitching 2.1 innings as a freshman. I'm not entirely sure what Miami intends to do with him defensively, but he played mostly third base for the Bulls and showed off a strong arm that would work well behind the plate. He's hitless with three strikeouts in six at bats so far in the Florida Complex League, but has drawn two walks.

2022 MLB Draft Review: Chicago Cubs

Full list of draftees

The Cubs put together a very pitcher-heavy draft here, selecting just one position player in the first thirteen rounds as they look to stock up a system that has been somewhat depleted of arm talent behind 2021 first rounder Jordan Wicks. It's consistent with their deadline approach, where they added names like Hayden Wesneski and Ben Brown, and now the pitching depth is in a much better place than it was a few months ago. As is their brand, they targeted power arms, led by fourth rounder Nazier Mule and his triple digit fastball and closely followed by numerous arms that can touch 96, 97, and higher. It was also a prep-heavy draft, which we don't see often these days outside of San Diego and perhaps Atlanta and Kansas City, as the Cubs drafted seven high schoolers and impressively managed to sign six of them.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-7: RHP Cade Horton, Oklahoma. My rank: #21.
Slot value: $5.71 million. Signing bonus: $4.45 million ($1.26 million below slot value).
We talk about "risers" and "helium guys" throughout the draft process, but never in my eight years of closely following the draft have I seen someone rocket up boards as quickly as Cade Horton. This is a fascinating story, and we're going to spend a lot of words telling it. Horton was basically Mr. Sports at Norman High School in Oklahoma, where he earned significant draft interest as both a pitcher and a shortstop while also playing a mean enough quarterback to earn a ticket into Lincoln Riley's elite QB room at Oklahoma. Horton's name was thrown around as high as the second round in 2020, but ultimately he went to school to find his path. He didn't end up seeing the football field as a freshman and dropped the sport, then underwent Tommy John surgery just before the start of his freshman baseball season. Finally getting on a field of any kind for the first time in 2022, where he was already a draft-eligible sophomore, he started off as a third baseman only and didn't hit much, slashing .234/.323/.324 with just one home run on the year on that side of the ball. Finally picking up the baseball as a pitcher in late March, he was ineffective at first and carried a 7.94 ERA through the regular season. By that point, he had fallen from a potential second round pick in high school to one receiving little draft interest at all on either side of the ball. This is late May that we're talking, less than two months before the draft. Then something clicked, big time. Beginning with his start against Texas in the Big 12 championship game, he posted a 2.61 ERA and a 49/6 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31 innings against some of the best lineups in college baseball – Texas, Florida, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Mississippi, to be specific. Every start was must watch TV and I'll admit I was glued to every pitch once the baseball world began to catch on. So what happened? Horton always had big arm strength, but he finally put it together in the postseason. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and was touching 98 late in the year, coming in with plenty of life that made it simply overpowering. He previously worked off a low 80's power curveball that could get slurvy at times, but late in the season he added a new slider that is already flashing plus with hard, late bite in the upper 80's. He's still working on a changeup, so the fastball and slider are his primary weapons and they're both true swing and miss pitches. His command has improved as well, because why not, and it looks at least average at this point and you could probably throw an above average grade on it once he gets a little more sample size under his belt. The 6'1" righty is an exceptional athlete, as you might expect from an Oklahoma QB recruit, repeating his delivery well and looking plenty durable enough to last over a full season. He'll definitely need to work on that changeup going forward, but Horton's transformation from a potential bust to a potential ace is incredible and the Cubs are more than happy to jump straight to the front of the Cade Horton hype train. Additionally, by signing him for more than a million dollars below slot value, they saved up enough money to drop a huge over slot bonus on...

2-47: LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #34.
Slot value: $1.66 million. Signing bonus: $3.01 million ($1.35 million above slot value).
After saving $1.26 million on Cade Horton, the Cubs spent it all at once by going $1.35 million above slot value for Jackson Ferris, giving him money roughly equivalent to the #24 slot at pick #47 to steer away from an Ole Miss commitment. Ferris is one of the more famous names in this high school pitching class, having transferred from Mount Airy High School in North Carolina to play at the IMG Academy in Florida and face better competition. He showed very well over the summer then came out hot this spring, but he ended up just a little more inconsistent than some evaluators would have liked. Not the Cubs, though, who are completely bought into the upside with a malleable pitcher who could develop in any number of positive directions. Ferris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 97 with plenty of ride, adding a big, deep curveball and a changeup that flashes above average. It is a very impressive three pitch mix from a teenager, but the real draw here is his projection. The 6'4" lefty has an ideal pitcher's frame with plenty of room to fill out, and he's a very good athlete on the mound to boot. There are some extra moving parts in his delivery for now and he's still growing into his long arms and legs, so his command can be inconsistent. There are days where everything is working right and you can throw an above average grade on that command, and on those days he looks like the best high school pitching prospect in the class, but there are others where he struggles to repeat his arm slot and shows below average command. You can live with all that because there is so much to work with here between the frame, athleticism, youth, arm strength, and feel for spin, and with the right development Ferris has possibly the highest upside in the entire prep pitching class.

3-86: SS Christopher Paciolla, Temecula Valley HS [CA]. My rank: #129.
Slot value: $735,500. Signing bonus: $900,000 ($164,500 above slot value).
The Cubs went back to the prep ranks for Christopher Paciolla, a riser this spring out on the West Coast who signed away from a UCLA commitment for an above slot bonus. He has some Peyton Graham in him if you're familiar with the Oklahoma shortstop-turned Tigers second round pick, albeit with a bit less speed. Paciolla has a long limbed, 6'2" frame with projection remaining, showing the kind of profile that could blossom with the right development. He already shows above average power from the right side from a powerful, slightly uppercut hack that elevates the ball well with authority. He has at times struggled to be consistent with his hit tool, but he was much better in that regard this spring and that enabled him to tap his power more frequently. A shortstop in high school, the Southern California native will get the chance to play there in pro ball with a solid arm and springy actions in the infield, though if he slows down at all as he fills out, third base might be a better option. In all, the upside is that of a power hitting shortstop that can swat 25+ home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, which will fit right into the Cubs' young core of bats. He's still getting adjusted to the Arizona Complex League, where he is slashing .143/.280/.286 with one home run and a 7/2 strikeout to walk ratio through seven games.

4-113: RHP Nazier Mule, Passaic County Tech HS [NJ]. My rank: #83.
Slot value: $538,600. Signing bonus: $1 million ($471,400 above slot value).
Leading the way in this hard throwing class is Nazier Mule, who will fit right into the Cubs' big velo club with Luke Little, Ryan Jensen, and Daniel Palencia. They again went way above slot to get the deal done, diverting the young fireballer away from a Miami commitment that could have had him draft eligible again at 20 years old. Mule is one of the most talented players in this prep class, bar none. He brings a ton of bat speed from the right side of the plate and shows off a cannon arm at shortstop, but the Cubs drafted him as a pitcher where his upside is even higher. At big showcase events last summer, he sat in the upper 90's with his fastball and touched triple digits repeatedly, then in longer outings this spring he's dialed it back a bit and sat comfortably in the mid 90's with running action. He flashes an above average slider and has fairly advanced feel for a potentially above average changeup. The 6'3" righty is extremely raw on the mound, often relying on his pure arm strength to just fling balls at the plate at high velocities, leading to inconsistent command and secondaries. He did show a little more polish this spring, though his delivery still needs considerable work which the Cubs are ready to provide. The great news is that the North Jersey native is one of the youngest players in the class, not even set to turn 18 until October which gives the Cubs plenty of time to figure things out. The arm strength here is simply special, and now that he's shown off some pitchability this spring, the Chicago believes he's well on his way to harnessing his stuff and turning into a potential ace. Don't expect Mule to move quickly, but with a little patience, be excited for the future.

5-143: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #106.
Slot value: $402,400. Signing bonus: $385,000 ($17,400 below slot value).
Brandon Birdsell has been on scouts' radars for a long time. Originally a Texas A&M commit, he pitched sparingly out of the Aggie bullpen as a freshman and transferred to San Jacinto JC in Houston, where he came out of the gate red hot leading up to the shutdown and earned significant draft interest. Instead, he moved on to Texas Tech after the shortened five round draft and again came out of the gate hot in 2021, but a season ending shoulder injury clouded his status and he turned down the Twins in the eleventh round to return to school once more and prove his health. The move paid off, as Birdsell put up a 2.75 ERA and a 106/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, perhaps highlighted by six no-hit, no-walk innings against Rice in which he struck out fifteen of the twenty hitters he faced. He fits into the Cubs' type as a power arm, sitting in the mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to 99 at his best, showing some ride while hiding the ball well with short arm action. He flashes a plus slider as well that functions as his out pitch, and has also worked in a curveball that flashes well and a solid changeup. Birdsell has above average command of his power fastball, but his offspeed command is closer to average if perhaps a tick below. The 6'2" righty has continually gotten stronger and now checks in at a listed 240 pounds, looking plenty durable enough to start now that the shoulder injury is behind him. Whether he can earn a spot in the Cubs' rotation will hinge on his being able to command his offspeeds well enough to elicit chases, which given their quality (especially the slider), doesn't have to be pinpoint. If he does move to the bullpen, the Houston-area native could thrive on that fastball/slider combination and potentially touch triple digits. As a 22 year old senior, he should move fairly quickly regardless.

6-173: RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State. My rank: #213.
Slot value: $303,900. Signing bonus: $228,000 ($75,900 below slot value).
Will Frisch, like Brandon Birdsell, was eligible a year ago and showed well in a swingman role, posting a 2.38 ERA and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.2 innings, but returned to school given that he was a draft-eligible sophomore and had more to prove. Set to slot into the Oregon State rotation full time this spring, he unfortunately never got that chance as Tommy John surgery will keep him out of action until 2023. When he's on the mound, Frisch shows interesting upside though he does need more work. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can reach the upper 90's in short stints, coming from a low release height with plenty of running action to make it a very tough pitch to square up. For now, that's by far his best pitch, but his changeup does flash above average when he commands it while his slider more inconsistent. The Cubs are buying the arm strength and unique stuff, hoping to get in on the ground floor of what could be a very solid #3 starter with more consistent secondaries. To get there, he'll not only have to sharpen those up, but he'll also have to prove he can hold up in the rotation in general given he has just seven collegiate starts under his belt and is a bit undersized at six feet tall. The Twin Cities native does a good job throwing strikes but also needs to fine tune his command a bit. For now, the profile is a bit relievery until he proves otherwise, but that fastball could be deadly in that role.

8-233: RHP Mason McGwire, Capistrano Valley HS [CA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $189,100. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($10,900 above slot value).
Cubs fans are going to have to put the rivalry aside for one pick, because yes, Mason McGwire is indeed Mark's son. Unlike his father, Mason is a pitcher, one that has a ways to go but could develop into a very interesting option. He presently sits in the low 90's with his fastball, touching 93, while adding in a decent slider and a potentially above average changeup. Very projectable at 6'4", he has plenty of room to get stronger and more velocity is almost certain to come, with a very free and easy delivery that could probably throw harder right now if he wanted to. For now, the command is below average as he tends to lose his release point and can spike pitches in the dirt, so he'll have to develop that as he adds velocity. It looks like a starter profile given the frame, arsenal, and natural velocity, but it may take some time to develop. He had been committed to play with his brother, Max, at Oklahoma, but turns pro for roughly slot value in the eighth round.

9-263: RHP Connor Noland, Arkansas. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $164,600. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($35,400 above slot value).
You don't see too many above slot senior signs in the ninth round, but Connor Noland earned it. He was a very solid starter as an underclassman for Arkansas in 2019 and 2020, but struggled to earn innings on that loaded 2021 squad when his stuff backed up on him. He came back for his best year yet in 2022, posting a 3.65 ERA and a 113/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings, with those 116 innings finishing second in all of Division I only to Oklahoma's Jake Bennett. Noland only sits around 90 with his fastball, scraping the mid 90's at his best with modest life. He stands out more for his feel for spin, ripping off an above average slider with hard sweep that misses a ton of bats. The western Arkansas native also shows feel for an average curveball and can mix in a changeup, giving him the four pitch mix necessary to start. Combine that with above average command, and it's kind of a classic senior sign profile. In order to stick in the rotation, the durable 6'2" righty will need to either add life or a tick of velocity to his fastball, in which case he could be a solid #4 or #5. Otherwise, he could pitch heavily off that slider in a relief role and let the shorter outings bring his fastball up to perhaps 91-94 instead of 89-92, and then move quickly through the minors. He turned 23 shortly after the draft, making him the oldest player in the Cubs' draft class.

12-353: RHP Mathew Peters, Ivy Tech JC. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Any Ivy Tech alumni out there? Mathew Peters gives the Cubs a regional prospect, one who attended Bishop Dwenger High School on the north side of Fort Wayne, Indiana, before heading virtually across the street to Ivy Tech's Fort Wayne campus. Ivy Tech is "the nation's largest individual accredited statewide community college system" according to Wikipedia and serves as Indiana's primary community college, but it's not exactly known for sports. In fact, Mathew Peters is the first player ever drafted from the school, and he may forever be the only player drafted because the school is shutting down its baseball program next year. So now, the legacy of Ivy Tech baseball rests on Peters' shoulders, and he'll get to carry it on just up the road in Chicago. He's a power arm that sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, adding a hard, sweeping slider and a changeup. The 6'4" righty is very athletically built and gets down the mound well with a low release point, making his pitches play up and miss more bats. He'll need some refinement around his command and the consistency of his secondaries, but his combination of velocity, size, and athleticism is worthwhile to gamble on in the twelfth round. His Arizona Complex League debut didn't go quite as planned, allowing a run on one hit and two walks while recording just one out, a strikeout.

13-383: RHP Luis Rujano, Sunshine State Elite Academy [FL]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $210,000 ($85,000 against bonus pool).
The Cubs popped for one more over slot bonus here in the thirteenth round, signing righty Luis Rujano out of the Sunshine State Elite Academy in the Orlando area and away from a South Florida commitment. Rujano, like most Cubs arms, stands out for his arm strength. He sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96-97 at peak, coming in from a lower release point. He adds a short slider that flashes upside but with inconsistent shape, while his changeup is a third pitch. The 6'4" righty has somewhat of a pieced together delivery, starting and stopping throughout and seemingly just kind of hurling the ball at the plate, leading to inconsistent command. The Cubs will work to streamline that delivery and help him retain more energy throughout, which could solve more than a few problems. Already having turned 19 in April, the Venezuelan is the age of a college freshman and has less time to develop, but the natural arm strength here is a big draw.