With the BBWAA ballots announced and some time cleared up in my academic schedule, I have gotten to work on my hypothetical ballot if I were able to cast one.
Primer on my view on steroids:
My view on steroids has evolved slightly over time, though not by much. I am still against steroid users in the Hall of Fame, because as someone who treats integrity as my number one value, I can't stand liars, cheaters, and such. While I'm against using the "character clause" as it pertains to non-baseball related issues (such as Curt Schilling's dumb tweets or Ty Cobb's racism) to keep players out of the Hall of Fame, I will absolutely invoke it for on-field issues, such as cheating to get ahead of your fellow players. We all know Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have gotten into the Hall without steroids, but the fact that they chose to use them compromised the integrity of the game, and that's not worth honoring. That said, over the past year, my views have evolved a little bit. Steroids were extremely widespread back then and allegedly even encouraged by league officials, and the truth is that we will never know exactly who juiced and why they did it. So, I filled out my ballot first with non-steroid users, and because I had two free spots, I put down Bonds and Clemens because I am certain they would be Hall of Famers without cheating.
1. RHP Mariano Rivera (1995-2013): 82-60, 2.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1173/286 K/BB, 1283.2 IP
This one is easy. Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher who ever lived, and I don't know who would even try to argue that. Among relievers, Mariano leads in fWAR (39.2), RE24 (352.62), and if you believe in "clutch," win-probability added (55.75), and none of those three are even close. Between 1996 and 2013, Mariano posted an ERA above 2.85 just once, when he had a 3.15 ERA for the 2007 Yankees at the age of 37. Not that saves matter, but he's also the all-time leader there with 652. In the postseason, where he has made 96 appearances (more than any other pitcher in history by a long shot), he has a 0.70 ERA, a 0.76 WHIP, and a 110/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 141 innings. The ERA is also the best of all time and the WHIP is fourth, so an argument can be made that Rivera is the greatest postseason pitcher of all time. There's really not much to argue here, just a lot to appreciate.
2. DH Edgar Martinez (1987-2004): 309 HR, .312/.418/.515, 49 SB, 147 wRC+, 65.5 fWAR
Edgar Martinez's enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is long, long overdue, and this is his tenth and final year on the ballot so it better happen. To paraphrase what I said last year, Martinez's bat was so valuable that even though he provided no defensive value whatsoever throughout his career, he is a clear Hall of Famer. Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Willie Stargell were all butchers in the outfield, and probably would have helped their teams more as a DH like Edgar, and nobody questions their Hall of Fame cases. Edgar wasn't a Ruthian or Williams-esque hitter, but the point is simply being a DH should not disqualify you from the Hall. His 147 wRC+, which adjusts for the fact that he played in an offense-heavy era, is still the 33rd best of all time, and his .418 on-base percentage sits in 21st. Yeah he only cleared 30 home runs once, but with 514 career doubles including eight seasons of at least 35 or more, going along with eight 20 homer seasons, he was one of the top hitters of the era. From 1995-2001, he never posted an on-base percentage below .423 or a slugging percentage below .543. Put Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame please and thank you.
3. RHP Roy Halladay (1998-2013): 203-105, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2117/592 K/BB, 2749.1 IP
Halladay isn't quite a shoe-in, but I think he's a worthwhile Hall of Famer and I don't see that as a particularly controversial statement. After a couple of big years in 2002 and 2003 and a down year in 2004, he was the best pitcher in baseball from 2005-2011, going 121-53 with a 2.82 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 1232/239 strikeout to walk ratio over that stretch. He led all pitchers (min. 500 IP) in fWAR (42.1), ERA, WHIP, complete games (51), and shutouts (14), was third in innings (1556.1) and walk rate (3.8%), and sixth in strikeouts. As good as C.C. Sabathia was, Halladay might be the last truly great workhorse that Major League Baseball ever sees, what with starting pitchers throwing fewer and fewer innings every year. Throw in his 2010 perfect game and postseason no-hitter, and Halladay is a deserving Hall of Famer.
4. RHP Mike Mussina (1991-2008): 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 2813/785 K/BB, 3562.2 IP
Look past Mussina's relatively inflated ERA and you will find a pitcher who dominated in some of the toughest non-Coors contexts in baseball history, pitching his entire career in the tough American League East around the Steroid Era, first in Baltimore's hitter-friendly Camden Yards then in New York's hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. His 82 career ERA- puts him in the company of John Smoltz (81), Juan Marichal (81), Bob Feller (82), and Ron Guidry (83), and he did it while throwing over 3500 innings. In fact, from 1992-2008, he went seventeen straight seasons without failing to throw at least 152 innings, making him as dependable as they come for nearly two decades. He was also a great postseason pitcher, going 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a strong 145/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 139.2 innings, which is not as eye-popping as Mariano Rivera's performance but certainly worthy of notice against the strongest teams of the Steroid Era. ERA is not everything.
5. RHP Curt Schilling (1988-2007): 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3116/711 K/BB, 3261 IP
Honestly, I believe the main reason that Curt Schilling is not in the Hall of Fame is that he likes to mouth off on Twitter. His numbers don't lie: a 3.46 ERA over more than 3000 innings in hitters' ballparks in the Steroid Era, three separate 300 strikeout seasons, and eight different full seasons with sub-3.30 ERA's in that tough context. From 1997-2004, he was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, going 132-71 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 1945/347 strikeout to walk ratio over 1824.1 innings in those tough, hitter-friendly contexts. Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson may have been better, but Schilling also managed big years in 1992, 1993, 1996, and 2006, all outside of that range. The longevity combined with the peak give me a Hall of Fame case for Schilling.
6. CF Andruw Jones (1996-2012): 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 66.9 fWAR
Jones may have only been a good hitter rather than a great one, but he was a legendary defender in center field and I think the bat was enough to get him over the hump. I'm not a big fan of putting light hitting, defense-first players into the Hall, but Jones wasn't a light hitter and that defense was considered legendary by those who saw him play (unfortunately, his early 2000's prime was just before my time as someone born in 1997 so I am limited to highlights and data). With the bat, Jones hit more than 25 home runs in ten straight seasons from 1998-2007, posting an on-base percentage above .310 in all of them. From 1998-2006, nine straight seasons, Jones was worth at least 4.9 fWAR in each season, three times getting to at least 7.0 fWAR. Elite defense in an all-time context to go with above average offensive production for a decade, plus marginal production on either side of that decade, adds up to a Hall of Famer in my book.
7. LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010): 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB, 903 IP
In my opinion, if Trevor Hoffman is in the Hall of Fame (which I believe he should be), there is no reason that Billy Wagner should not be in as well; Wagner was better. Aside from having a lower career ERA 2.31 to 2.87, Wagner put up more RE24 (198.2 to 179.7) than Hoffman in 185.1 fewer innings, and I believe RE24 (a cumulative statistic like fWAR, not a rate statistic like ERA) is a good indicator of a reliever's success. In fact, among all relievers ever, Wagner is second only to Mariano Rivera and his ridiculous 352.6 RE24. Wagner may not have been as consistent as Hoffman or Rivera, but he had four different full seasons with ERA's below 1.80 and and seven different full seasons (min. 40 IP) with a WHIP below 1.00. In 2010, his final year where he turned 39 mid-season, he posted a 1.43 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 104/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 69.1 innings for the Braves; that's the way for the best left handed reliever of all time to go out.
8. RF Larry Walker (1989-2005): 383 HR, .313/.400/.565, 230 SB, 140 wRC+, 68.7 fWAR
If you're going to play in Coors Field during the Steroid Era, you better put up some ridiculous numbers to get into the Hall of Fame. Well, he did. During his time there from 1995 to halfway through 2004, he slashed .334/.426/.618 with 258 home runs in 1170 games, good for a 147 wRC+. I think managing a slash line like that for an entire decade qualifies as ridiculous. Even from 1990-1994 with the Expos, before his prime and in a neutral context, he slashed .284/.359/.489 with 99 home runs and a 130 wRC+, so he clearly could hit. He could also field and run, and when you create a list of players with a 140 wRC+ (which erases Walker's Coors advantage), 200 stolen bases, and positive defensive value (according to Fangraphs), you find just eleven names: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Alex Rodriguez, Tris Speaker, Honus Wagner, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Roger Connor, John McGraw, and Walker. On that list, only Bonds, Rodriguez, and Walker are not in the Hall of Fame, and both Bonds and Rodriguez (once eligible) would be first ballot Hall of Famers if it weren't for steroids. Walker was a rare complete player and should be in the Hall.
9. LF Barry Bonds (1986-2007): 762 HR, .298/.444/.607, 514 SB, 173 wRC+, 164.4 fWAR
With space available, Bonds made it onto my ballot. There's really no question about his skill; his numbers are among the most eye-popping in the history of baseball. With an all-time record 762 home runs and a ridiculous .298/.444/.607 slash line, he finished second all time with 164.4 fWAR, just four behind Babe Ruth's 168.4. No other player even has 150 fWAR (with apologies to Willie Mays and his 149.9). I could keep writing all day about his accomplishments, including the all time record for walks (2558) in addition to his home run record as well as the single season records for home runs (73), wRC+ (244), slugging percentage (.863), on-base percentage (.609), walks (232), and walk rate (37.6%).
10. RHP Roger Clemens (1984-2007): 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4672/1580 K/BB, 4916.2 IP
While I believe Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez were the greatest pitchers of the era, perhaps only Maddux can match Clemens the longevity, consistency, and level of performance of Roger Clemens. Of course, it was partially steroid fueled, but for 24 seasons from the ages of 21 to 45, Clemens threw at least 98 innings in every single one while never once watching his ERA jump above 4.60 or his WHIP jump above 1.47, even at the height of the Steroid Era. He had twelve different seasons with an ERA below 3.00 and and struck out over 200 batters twelve times as well. Dropping the strikeout threshold to 185, he had sixteen such seasons. His seven Cy Young Awards, spanning 18 years between his first in 1986 and his final in 2004, are a record. Of course, nobody with Clemens it's not a question about performance, but about steroids.
Left Off
Steroid Users (see primer)
LF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011): 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR
RF Garry Sheffield (1988-2009): 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR
RF Sammy Sosa (1989-2007): 609 HR, .273/.344/.534, 234 SB, 124 wRC+, 60.1 fWAR
3B Scott Rolen (1996-2012): 316 HR, .281/.364/.490, 118 SB, 122 wRC+, 69.9 fWAR
For the second straight year, Scott Rolen was so, so close to making my ballot, but I ultimately decided not to pull the trigger. His argument is similar to that of Andruw Jones, with Rolen providing a little more offensive value and Jones providing a little more defensive value. Rolen played for seventeen years, clubbed over 300 home runs and finished with a nice .281/.364/.490 slash line, and his defense is universally regarded as excellent. He was worth 9.0 fWAR in a huge 2004 (34 HR, .314/.409/.598, typical great defense) and had three other seasons of more than six fWAR, but when you put it all together, I think a good hitter with very good defense and a career that ultimately tapered off in its second half (5.3 fWAR per year from 1997-2004 and 2.8 per year from 2005-2012) lands Rolen right on the border, and for now in the "Hall of Very Good."
LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013): 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB, 3316 IP
Andy Pettitte is the kind of guy who had a great career with lots of ups and who seemed like a Hall of Famer at the time, but looking back on the total product, it's not quite what it needs to be. He had some big years, such as 1997 (18-7, 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and 2005 (17-9, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), and he was also great in the postseason, going 19-11 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 276.2 innings. Along the way, he won six World Series and set the all time playoff records for wins, innings pitched, and games started (44). However, when you look at his career numbers, what you find in the regular season is a bunch of years with ERA's in the 4.00 range and just two full seasons (min. 150 IP) with an ERA below 3.74. As it turns out, he might be the most accomplished mid-rotation starter of all time.
1B Fred McGriff (1986-2004): 493 HR, .284/.377/.509, 72 SB, 134 wRC+, 56.9 fWAR)
With all due respect to the Crime Dog, 493 career home runs with an on-base percentage of .377 over a nineteen year career is certainly not too shabby and worthy of Hall of Fame consideration. However, for a first baseman who provided no value on defense, the beat was just a little light. His career high in home runs was 37 and in on-base percentage it was .405, and so he was never one of the best hitters in the game, even among non-steroid users. Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Thome, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas had him out-shined there in the '90's. It's his final year on the ballot, and I just don't think "very good" cuts it with the bat when that's his only ticket in.
1B Todd Helton (1997-2013): 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 55.0 fWAR
The same rule applies to Helton as it applies to Larry Walker; he would need eye-popping numbers to get into the Hall of Fame due to his seventeen year tenure in Colorado, with the added pressure due to being a first baseman, albeit one with some solid defense. As it turns out, he was putting up those eye-popping numbers...briefly. From 2000-2004, Helton slashed .349/.450/.643 with 186 home runs and 34.4 fWAR; maintaining that kind of slash line over five full seasons is pretty incredible. However, after a pretty good 2005 (.320/.445/.534, 20 HR), he was just decent for the rest of his career and when you're a first baseman, that's not enough in my mind. It's easy to look at 369 home runs and a .414 on-base percentage and see Helton as a Hall of Famer, but given that he was a first baseman playing in Coors Field, I'd like a little more. Still, I want to appreciate his incredible 2000 season, where he hit 42 home runs and slashed .372/.463/.698 while walking way more (103 times) than he struck out (61 times), compiling 8.3 fWAR along the way.
1B Lance Berkman (1999-2013): 366 HR, .293/.406/.537, 86 SB, 144 wRC+, 56.0 fWAR
Berkman was a star at his peak, putting together four straight seasons with at least 6.0 fWAR from 2001-2004 then doing so again in 2006 and 2008, when he peaked at 7.7 fWAR, but he ultimately could not sustain his peak for long and was finished after fifteen seasons. The length of his career alone is not a disqualifying factor, but with a lack of defensive value, he would have needed just a bit better of a bat to overcome the lack of defense and longevity. At no point was Berkman really considered one of the top hitters in the game, so he misses.
Others of note: 2B Jeff Kent (56.1 fWAR), RHP Roy Oswalt (52.4), SS Omar Vizquel (42.4), RHP Derek Lowe (41.2), 2B Placido Polanco (38.4)
Thursday, November 29, 2018
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Braves sign Josh Donaldson, Brian McCann
3B Josh Donaldson (Age 33): 8 HR, .246/.352/.449, 2 SB, 117 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR in 52 games
Contract: One year, $23 million
This contract makes perfect sense for both sides. Donaldson is an extremely productive, All Star caliber player coming off a string of borderline-MVP seasons followed by an injury-riddled disappointment of a 2018. By taking a one year contract, he can still bring in a very solid $23 million while rebuilding his value for a longer team deal after the season. From the Braves' perspective, $23 million is a lot to invest in a soon-to-be 34 year old coming off a disappointing season, but it's just a one year commitment and Donaldson could very well revert to his pre-2018 self, in which case they'd be getting a discount - and potential draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere - on a lineup anchor. In 2016, Donaldson's last healthy season, he slashed .284/.404/.549 with 37 home runs for the Blue Jays for a total of 7.6 fWAR, but that dropped slightly to .270/.385/.559 with 33 home runs and 5.1 fWAR while battling minor calf injuries in 2017. He injured his other calf in 2018 and the issue lingered all season, dropping his slash line to .246/.352/.449 as he finished with just eight home runs and 1.3 fWAR in 52 games. While the numbers aren't close to his usual standards, they aren't bad either; a .352 on-base percentage with a .449 slugging percentage still makes for a well-above-average hitter, and that's a hitter who was being dragged down by nagging injuries. A healthy Donaldson is still an All Star, and if he can't stay healthy, the Braves are not committed to him past 2019. For his career, the Auburn alum has 182 home runs, a .275/.367/.507 slash line, and 36.5 fWAR over 883 games since 2010.
C Brian McCann (Age 34): 7 HR, .212/.301/.339, 0 SB, 82 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR in 63 games
Contract: One year, $2 million
McCann is clearly a much smaller-scale addition, but for just $2 million, he has the opportunity to help the Braves by providing depth behind the plate as well as veteran leadership. A native of Duluth, Georgia, less than 25 miles from SunTrust Park and just ten miles from the Braves' AAA affiliate, the Gwinnett Stripers, it's a homecoming for the former Brave in more ways than one. He was one of the best catchers in baseball during his time in Atlanta, accumulating 28.3 fWAR from 2005-2013 as a Brave. His bat has regressed as he has gotten older, and now he's a mediocre hitter with a pretty decent glove, and right now it looks like he'll split catching duties with fellow Atlanta-area native Tyler Flowers. Still, I see catcher as an area of need for the Braves and I don't think McCann fills it entirely. Neither Flowers nor McCann are starting-quality catchers for a playoff-hopeful team like the Braves, with McCann slashing .212/.301/.339 in 2018 and Flowers not much better at .227/.341/.359. On the other hand, it is cool to see an all-Atlanta born catching corps. For his career, McCann has 270 home runs, a .263/.338/.454 slash line, and 36.9 fWAR over 1670 games since 2005.
Contract: One year, $23 million
This contract makes perfect sense for both sides. Donaldson is an extremely productive, All Star caliber player coming off a string of borderline-MVP seasons followed by an injury-riddled disappointment of a 2018. By taking a one year contract, he can still bring in a very solid $23 million while rebuilding his value for a longer team deal after the season. From the Braves' perspective, $23 million is a lot to invest in a soon-to-be 34 year old coming off a disappointing season, but it's just a one year commitment and Donaldson could very well revert to his pre-2018 self, in which case they'd be getting a discount - and potential draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere - on a lineup anchor. In 2016, Donaldson's last healthy season, he slashed .284/.404/.549 with 37 home runs for the Blue Jays for a total of 7.6 fWAR, but that dropped slightly to .270/.385/.559 with 33 home runs and 5.1 fWAR while battling minor calf injuries in 2017. He injured his other calf in 2018 and the issue lingered all season, dropping his slash line to .246/.352/.449 as he finished with just eight home runs and 1.3 fWAR in 52 games. While the numbers aren't close to his usual standards, they aren't bad either; a .352 on-base percentage with a .449 slugging percentage still makes for a well-above-average hitter, and that's a hitter who was being dragged down by nagging injuries. A healthy Donaldson is still an All Star, and if he can't stay healthy, the Braves are not committed to him past 2019. For his career, the Auburn alum has 182 home runs, a .275/.367/.507 slash line, and 36.5 fWAR over 883 games since 2010.
C Brian McCann (Age 34): 7 HR, .212/.301/.339, 0 SB, 82 wRC+, 0.5 fWAR in 63 games
Contract: One year, $2 million
McCann is clearly a much smaller-scale addition, but for just $2 million, he has the opportunity to help the Braves by providing depth behind the plate as well as veteran leadership. A native of Duluth, Georgia, less than 25 miles from SunTrust Park and just ten miles from the Braves' AAA affiliate, the Gwinnett Stripers, it's a homecoming for the former Brave in more ways than one. He was one of the best catchers in baseball during his time in Atlanta, accumulating 28.3 fWAR from 2005-2013 as a Brave. His bat has regressed as he has gotten older, and now he's a mediocre hitter with a pretty decent glove, and right now it looks like he'll split catching duties with fellow Atlanta-area native Tyler Flowers. Still, I see catcher as an area of need for the Braves and I don't think McCann fills it entirely. Neither Flowers nor McCann are starting-quality catchers for a playoff-hopeful team like the Braves, with McCann slashing .212/.301/.339 in 2018 and Flowers not much better at .227/.341/.359. On the other hand, it is cool to see an all-Atlanta born catching corps. For his career, McCann has 270 home runs, a .263/.338/.454 slash line, and 36.9 fWAR over 1670 games since 2005.
Monday, November 26, 2018
Reviewing the Arizona Diamondbacks Farm System
The Diamondbacks' farm system is vastly improved from where it was a few years ago, but it's still not deep. Headlined by the live armed Jon Duplantier, this system is built around a strong group of hitters that played at High A Visalia in 2018, though after a solid top ten or so the system drops off and is mostly comprised of fringe talent. They have placed an emphasis on bats in the draft recently, and that has replenished the lower end of the system. In terms of pitching, most of the talent is closer to the major leagues and aside from Jon Duplantier, there are no true high-ceiling pitching prospects.
Affiliates: AAA Reno Aces, AA Jackson Generals, High A Visalia Rawhide, Class A Kane County Cougars, Short Season Hillsboro Hops, Rookie level Missoula Osprey, complex level AZL and DSL Diamondbacks
The Headliner: RHP Jon Duplantier
24 year old Jon Duplantier was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Rice in 2016, and though he had shoulder concerns in college, he has been mostly healthy in the minors. The result so far is a 17-4 record, a 1.79 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 245/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 211 innings since he was drafted, and in 2018 he was 5-1 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings, mostly at AA Jackson. He has shown the ability to shut down AA hitting with great stuff and good enough command to make it all work, and really his only question is health. Though he managed 136 innings in 2017, he missed some more time in 2018 and was shut down after 74 innings and he might end up as a right handed James Paxton type who struggles to stay on the mound. When healthy though, he looks like a future #2 starter who could be up in the majors by late 2019.
Visalia Bats: 2B Jazz Chisholm, 1B Pavin Smith, C Daulton Varsho, 3B Drew Ellis, and OF Marcus Wilson
It just so happened to work out that most of the top impact bats in the Arizona system all spent the bulk of their 2018 season at High A Visalia, which must have made for a fun lineup to watch out in California. Keep in mind that Visalia is a hitter-friendly venue when reading statistics in this section. 20 year old Jazz Chisholm, a Bahamas native, has the highest ceiling in this group. Chisholm spent 76 games down at Class A Kane County before being called up to Visalia for 36 games, combining for 25 home runs, a .272/.329/.513 slash line, 17 stolen bases, and a 149/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games. He's an explosive player with speed and power from a 5'11" frame, but he has to improve his plate discipline. That isn't a huge issue due to his age, so if he can shore up that strike zone a little bit, he could be a Rougned Odor-type second baseman in the majors. 22 year old Pavin Smith was probably the most notable hitter to appear for the Rawhide, though his season was somewhat disappointing as he finished with eleven home runs, a .255/.343/.392 line, and a 65/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games, all at Visalia. The seventh overall pick out of the University of Virginia in 2017, Smith showed the excellent plate discipline he was known for in college, but the power he was projected to have has not yet materialized. At 6'2" with long arms, evaluators still think there is power to tap into, but he risks becoming just a bench bat if he doesn't get to it, even with his excellent plate discipline. He looked like he could be a Joey Votto out of college, but now it looks more like Jake Bauers. 22 year old Daulton Varsho was drafted 61 picks after Smith, 68th overall, in 2017 out of college in Wisconsin. Over 83 games between Visalia and some rehab work in complex ball, Varsho slashed .294/.367/.475 with 12 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 72/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He has power and speed, and with the ability to catch, he might be the most interesting prospect in the system. Catching isn't a given for Varsho, as his arm is mediocre, but if he can stick behind the plate he could be a J.T. Realmuto-type catcher with all around abilities as a hitter. Keep an eye on him. 22 year old Drew Ellis, yet another 2017 draft pick out of college, was a second rounder (44th overall) out of Louisville who has been more of a Smith-like disappointment than a Varsho-like surprise. This year, Ellis slashed .246/.331/.429 with 15 home runs and a 98/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Visalia, putting up some solid numbers on the surface that look a little less impressive considering the hitter-friendly context of the California League. I liked Ellis on draft day (as I did with Varsho) because of his high-torque swing where he keeps his hands close to his body, kind of like Mike Trout, but he just didn't drive the ball enough in 2018 to set himself apart. I still like him and he could be a strong third baseman with power and on-base ability, but like Smith, he has to start hitting with more authority. Yet another 22 year old, outfielder Marcus Wilson, spent the year at Visalia and slashed .235/.309/.369 with ten home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 141/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games. He was much better at Class A Kane County in 2017 (.295/.383/.446, 9 HR, 15 SB), so his lack of offensive sock this year was a disappointment. His best tool is his speed, but with an average bat, he probably ends up a fourth outfielder at the major league level.
Other Bats: 2B Domingo Leyba, 1B Kevin Cron, OF Jake McCarthy, OF Alek Thomas, OF Kristian Robinson, C Andy Yerzy, SS Blaze Alexander, and SS Geraldo Perdomo
While the bulk of Arizona's relevant bats were down at High A, they had quite a few that were a little farther back and two that were just ahead. 23 year old Domingo Leyba and 25 year old Kevin Cron are the two most advanced bats in the Diamondbacks' system, though they're two very different prospects. Leyba played 2018 at AA Jacksonville and slashed .269/.344/.381 with five home runs and a 46/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games, showing good plate discipline and bat to ball skills but not showing much power. With some respectable defense, he looks like he could be a serviceable utility man who can get on base at a reasonable rate. Cron, meanwhile, is a big power hitter out of TCU who slashed .309/.368/.554 with 22 home runs and a 100/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at AAA Reno, though it's important to keep in mind that Reno is a hitter-friendly environment. The 6'5", 245 pound first baseman is blocked by Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona, but with 112 home runs over five minor league seasons, he could be a valuable pinch-hitter in the near term. However, in order for him to start in the majors, he'll need to walk more so that he is not just a one-dimensional player. 21 year old Jake McCarthy, the D-Backs' competitive balance pick (39th overall) out of the University of Virginia in 2018, was a nice get and I think he could out-play his draft position. McCarthy slashed .288/.375/.443 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, mostly with Short Season Hillsboro, after signing. He's really a complete player with speed, defense, on-base ability, and some power, and I think he'll develop more power in the minors. He hasn't yet played in full season ball, but he could move quickly through the minors and while he looks more like a good fourth outfielder at this point, I think he has a good shot to be a starting center fielder and valuable leadoff man. Meanwhile, 18 year old Alek Thomas was taken 24 picks later at 63rd overall out of high school in Chicago, and he adjusted quickly to pro ball by slashing .333/.395/.463 with two home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games evenly split between complex ball and rookie level Missoula. He was known pre-draft as an advanced hitter for his age and it certainly showed, though I question his ceiling and see him more as a fourth outfielder than as a starter. He has great plate discipline, speed, and defense, but he doesn't hit for much power and his value will be tied to his on-base percentage if he can't add more. If he can maintain those high on-base percentages, though, he could be a leadoff hitter down the road. His teammate for much of the season, 17 year old Kristian Robinson, is another Bahamian who got off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .279/.363/.428 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball and Missoula. He's extremely young, turning 18 in December, and while he's a long, long way off, he could end up with a similar offensive toolset to Jazz Chisholm. Players like Robinson flame out all the time, but they're also the type that can yield tons of value down the road if they don't flame out. 20 year old catcher Andy Yerzy has been brought along slowly, hitting well along the way and slashing .297/.382/.452 with eight home runs and a 67/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at Hillsboro. The bat is potent, especially for a catcher, but he has to continue to work on his defense if he wants to stay behind the plate. He's a good enough hitter that he could still be valuable as a first baseman or an outfielder, but he could be a starting catcher if he can improve his defense. Obviously, we'll still need to see the bat at higher levels before considering him a true impact prospect. 19 year olds Blaze Alexander and Geraldo Perdomo are a couple of young shortstop prospects who will be competing as they move up through the minors. Alexander got off to a hot start to his pro career in 2018, slashing .329/.417/.538 with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 52/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games between complex ball and Missoula, while Perdomo hit .322/.438/.460 with four home runs, 24 stolen bases, an a 44/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball, Missoula, and Hillsboro. Both are good defenders, with Perdomo more likely to stick at short and Alexander more likely to move to third base, and while Perdomo also appears to have a little more sock in his bat, they're about even offensively and the transition to full season ball will be telling.
The Pitchers: Taylor Widener, Taylor Clarke, Emilio Vargas, Matt Tabor, Matt Mercer, Yoan Lopez, and Alex Young
The Diamondbacks aren't very deep with pitching after Jon Duplantier, so I decided to lump the rest of the pitchers into one section. Of the rest, 24 year old Taylor Widener is clearly the best, showing pretty decent command of mid-rotation stuff and using it to hold down minor league hitters very effectively to this point. In 2018, the 6' righty put up a 2.75 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 176/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.1 innings at AA Jackson, missing bats with his mid-90's heater and his sharp slider. Right now, he looks good enough to at least cut it as a back-end starter with the upside of a mid-rotation starter, and how effectively he can deploy his decent changeup will be an important factor in his ultimate performance. There's a good chance he makes it to the majors in 2019. His main competition among prospects, aside from Duplantier, will be another Taylor, 25 year old Taylor Clarke. Clarke is a veteran of the upper minors who posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 152 innings at AAA Reno in 2018, a hitter-friendly context. While his stuff is generally average, Clarke commands his pitches well and can get outs by hitting his spots consistently. He will be tested in the majors, but he could be a #4 or #5 starter in 2019. 22 year old Emilio Vargas is slightly behind the two of them, but the 6'3" righty should not be overlooked. Over 26 games (25 starts) at High A Visalia and Jackson in 2018, Vargas posted a 2.88 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 170/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings. His stuff ticked up this year and he started missing more bats while throwing more strikes, and the result was a dominant run through the hitter-friendly California League followed by a successful AA debut. He still looks like a back-end starter, but 2018 gives hope that he could be more. Farther down on the farm, a couple of Matts have some high upside. 20 year old Matt Tabor posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 46/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Short season Hillsboro, mainly living off his mid 90's fastball and good control, but he's young enough to continue developing those offspeed pitches and could look like Taylor Widener in a couple of years. 22 year old Matt Mercer, meanwhile, was just drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 draft out of Oregon and posted a 3.10 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 38/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings, mostly as Tabor's teammate at Hillsboro. It's a small sample size, but Mercer's low walk rate was a very welcome site after be battled command troubles in college, but he'll still need to refine his secondary pitches if he doesn't want to end up in the bullpen. I get a good feeling that pro coaching could make him a useable back-end starter, but the bullpen is a real possibility and he could be very good back there. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have a pair of notable relief-only prospects in 25 year olds Yoan Lopez and Alex Young. Lopez has had a very roundabout career, originally signing for a huge $8 million bonus in 2015 but struggling as a starter and briefly stepping away from the game in late 2016. He returned as a reliever in 2017 and has been lights out ever since, posting a 2.92 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings with Jackson in 2018 before reaching the majors with success in a small sample size (3.00 ERA, 11/1 K/BB in 9 IP). He throws an MLB-ready fastball/slider combination, and while his control keeps him from being a closer, he could be a valuable reliever starting this season. Young has also spent his minor league career as a starter and there is still some chance he starts in the majors, but I see him more as a relief prospect after a mediocre 2018 (5.17 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 109/39 K/BB in 130.2 IP at Jackson and Reno). His stuff is fringy and could play up in the bullpen, and as a lefty he could be deployed strategically. Look for him as a potential long reliever.
Affiliates: AAA Reno Aces, AA Jackson Generals, High A Visalia Rawhide, Class A Kane County Cougars, Short Season Hillsboro Hops, Rookie level Missoula Osprey, complex level AZL and DSL Diamondbacks
The Headliner: RHP Jon Duplantier
24 year old Jon Duplantier was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Rice in 2016, and though he had shoulder concerns in college, he has been mostly healthy in the minors. The result so far is a 17-4 record, a 1.79 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 245/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 211 innings since he was drafted, and in 2018 he was 5-1 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 77/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 74 innings, mostly at AA Jackson. He has shown the ability to shut down AA hitting with great stuff and good enough command to make it all work, and really his only question is health. Though he managed 136 innings in 2017, he missed some more time in 2018 and was shut down after 74 innings and he might end up as a right handed James Paxton type who struggles to stay on the mound. When healthy though, he looks like a future #2 starter who could be up in the majors by late 2019.
Visalia Bats: 2B Jazz Chisholm, 1B Pavin Smith, C Daulton Varsho, 3B Drew Ellis, and OF Marcus Wilson
It just so happened to work out that most of the top impact bats in the Arizona system all spent the bulk of their 2018 season at High A Visalia, which must have made for a fun lineup to watch out in California. Keep in mind that Visalia is a hitter-friendly venue when reading statistics in this section. 20 year old Jazz Chisholm, a Bahamas native, has the highest ceiling in this group. Chisholm spent 76 games down at Class A Kane County before being called up to Visalia for 36 games, combining for 25 home runs, a .272/.329/.513 slash line, 17 stolen bases, and a 149/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games. He's an explosive player with speed and power from a 5'11" frame, but he has to improve his plate discipline. That isn't a huge issue due to his age, so if he can shore up that strike zone a little bit, he could be a Rougned Odor-type second baseman in the majors. 22 year old Pavin Smith was probably the most notable hitter to appear for the Rawhide, though his season was somewhat disappointing as he finished with eleven home runs, a .255/.343/.392 line, and a 65/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games, all at Visalia. The seventh overall pick out of the University of Virginia in 2017, Smith showed the excellent plate discipline he was known for in college, but the power he was projected to have has not yet materialized. At 6'2" with long arms, evaluators still think there is power to tap into, but he risks becoming just a bench bat if he doesn't get to it, even with his excellent plate discipline. He looked like he could be a Joey Votto out of college, but now it looks more like Jake Bauers. 22 year old Daulton Varsho was drafted 61 picks after Smith, 68th overall, in 2017 out of college in Wisconsin. Over 83 games between Visalia and some rehab work in complex ball, Varsho slashed .294/.367/.475 with 12 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 72/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He has power and speed, and with the ability to catch, he might be the most interesting prospect in the system. Catching isn't a given for Varsho, as his arm is mediocre, but if he can stick behind the plate he could be a J.T. Realmuto-type catcher with all around abilities as a hitter. Keep an eye on him. 22 year old Drew Ellis, yet another 2017 draft pick out of college, was a second rounder (44th overall) out of Louisville who has been more of a Smith-like disappointment than a Varsho-like surprise. This year, Ellis slashed .246/.331/.429 with 15 home runs and a 98/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Visalia, putting up some solid numbers on the surface that look a little less impressive considering the hitter-friendly context of the California League. I liked Ellis on draft day (as I did with Varsho) because of his high-torque swing where he keeps his hands close to his body, kind of like Mike Trout, but he just didn't drive the ball enough in 2018 to set himself apart. I still like him and he could be a strong third baseman with power and on-base ability, but like Smith, he has to start hitting with more authority. Yet another 22 year old, outfielder Marcus Wilson, spent the year at Visalia and slashed .235/.309/.369 with ten home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 141/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games. He was much better at Class A Kane County in 2017 (.295/.383/.446, 9 HR, 15 SB), so his lack of offensive sock this year was a disappointment. His best tool is his speed, but with an average bat, he probably ends up a fourth outfielder at the major league level.
Other Bats: 2B Domingo Leyba, 1B Kevin Cron, OF Jake McCarthy, OF Alek Thomas, OF Kristian Robinson, C Andy Yerzy, SS Blaze Alexander, and SS Geraldo Perdomo
While the bulk of Arizona's relevant bats were down at High A, they had quite a few that were a little farther back and two that were just ahead. 23 year old Domingo Leyba and 25 year old Kevin Cron are the two most advanced bats in the Diamondbacks' system, though they're two very different prospects. Leyba played 2018 at AA Jacksonville and slashed .269/.344/.381 with five home runs and a 46/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games, showing good plate discipline and bat to ball skills but not showing much power. With some respectable defense, he looks like he could be a serviceable utility man who can get on base at a reasonable rate. Cron, meanwhile, is a big power hitter out of TCU who slashed .309/.368/.554 with 22 home runs and a 100/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at AAA Reno, though it's important to keep in mind that Reno is a hitter-friendly environment. The 6'5", 245 pound first baseman is blocked by Paul Goldschmidt in Arizona, but with 112 home runs over five minor league seasons, he could be a valuable pinch-hitter in the near term. However, in order for him to start in the majors, he'll need to walk more so that he is not just a one-dimensional player. 21 year old Jake McCarthy, the D-Backs' competitive balance pick (39th overall) out of the University of Virginia in 2018, was a nice get and I think he could out-play his draft position. McCarthy slashed .288/.375/.443 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 41/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, mostly with Short Season Hillsboro, after signing. He's really a complete player with speed, defense, on-base ability, and some power, and I think he'll develop more power in the minors. He hasn't yet played in full season ball, but he could move quickly through the minors and while he looks more like a good fourth outfielder at this point, I think he has a good shot to be a starting center fielder and valuable leadoff man. Meanwhile, 18 year old Alek Thomas was taken 24 picks later at 63rd overall out of high school in Chicago, and he adjusted quickly to pro ball by slashing .333/.395/.463 with two home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games evenly split between complex ball and rookie level Missoula. He was known pre-draft as an advanced hitter for his age and it certainly showed, though I question his ceiling and see him more as a fourth outfielder than as a starter. He has great plate discipline, speed, and defense, but he doesn't hit for much power and his value will be tied to his on-base percentage if he can't add more. If he can maintain those high on-base percentages, though, he could be a leadoff hitter down the road. His teammate for much of the season, 17 year old Kristian Robinson, is another Bahamian who got off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .279/.363/.428 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball and Missoula. He's extremely young, turning 18 in December, and while he's a long, long way off, he could end up with a similar offensive toolset to Jazz Chisholm. Players like Robinson flame out all the time, but they're also the type that can yield tons of value down the road if they don't flame out. 20 year old catcher Andy Yerzy has been brought along slowly, hitting well along the way and slashing .297/.382/.452 with eight home runs and a 67/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at Hillsboro. The bat is potent, especially for a catcher, but he has to continue to work on his defense if he wants to stay behind the plate. He's a good enough hitter that he could still be valuable as a first baseman or an outfielder, but he could be a starting catcher if he can improve his defense. Obviously, we'll still need to see the bat at higher levels before considering him a true impact prospect. 19 year olds Blaze Alexander and Geraldo Perdomo are a couple of young shortstop prospects who will be competing as they move up through the minors. Alexander got off to a hot start to his pro career in 2018, slashing .329/.417/.538 with five home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 52/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games between complex ball and Missoula, while Perdomo hit .322/.438/.460 with four home runs, 24 stolen bases, an a 44/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games between complex ball, Missoula, and Hillsboro. Both are good defenders, with Perdomo more likely to stick at short and Alexander more likely to move to third base, and while Perdomo also appears to have a little more sock in his bat, they're about even offensively and the transition to full season ball will be telling.
The Pitchers: Taylor Widener, Taylor Clarke, Emilio Vargas, Matt Tabor, Matt Mercer, Yoan Lopez, and Alex Young
The Diamondbacks aren't very deep with pitching after Jon Duplantier, so I decided to lump the rest of the pitchers into one section. Of the rest, 24 year old Taylor Widener is clearly the best, showing pretty decent command of mid-rotation stuff and using it to hold down minor league hitters very effectively to this point. In 2018, the 6' righty put up a 2.75 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 176/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.1 innings at AA Jackson, missing bats with his mid-90's heater and his sharp slider. Right now, he looks good enough to at least cut it as a back-end starter with the upside of a mid-rotation starter, and how effectively he can deploy his decent changeup will be an important factor in his ultimate performance. There's a good chance he makes it to the majors in 2019. His main competition among prospects, aside from Duplantier, will be another Taylor, 25 year old Taylor Clarke. Clarke is a veteran of the upper minors who posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 152 innings at AAA Reno in 2018, a hitter-friendly context. While his stuff is generally average, Clarke commands his pitches well and can get outs by hitting his spots consistently. He will be tested in the majors, but he could be a #4 or #5 starter in 2019. 22 year old Emilio Vargas is slightly behind the two of them, but the 6'3" righty should not be overlooked. Over 26 games (25 starts) at High A Visalia and Jackson in 2018, Vargas posted a 2.88 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 170/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings. His stuff ticked up this year and he started missing more bats while throwing more strikes, and the result was a dominant run through the hitter-friendly California League followed by a successful AA debut. He still looks like a back-end starter, but 2018 gives hope that he could be more. Farther down on the farm, a couple of Matts have some high upside. 20 year old Matt Tabor posted a 3.26 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 46/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 60.2 innings at Short season Hillsboro, mainly living off his mid 90's fastball and good control, but he's young enough to continue developing those offspeed pitches and could look like Taylor Widener in a couple of years. 22 year old Matt Mercer, meanwhile, was just drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 draft out of Oregon and posted a 3.10 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 38/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 innings, mostly as Tabor's teammate at Hillsboro. It's a small sample size, but Mercer's low walk rate was a very welcome site after be battled command troubles in college, but he'll still need to refine his secondary pitches if he doesn't want to end up in the bullpen. I get a good feeling that pro coaching could make him a useable back-end starter, but the bullpen is a real possibility and he could be very good back there. Lastly, the Diamondbacks have a pair of notable relief-only prospects in 25 year olds Yoan Lopez and Alex Young. Lopez has had a very roundabout career, originally signing for a huge $8 million bonus in 2015 but struggling as a starter and briefly stepping away from the game in late 2016. He returned as a reliever in 2017 and has been lights out ever since, posting a 2.92 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 87/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings with Jackson in 2018 before reaching the majors with success in a small sample size (3.00 ERA, 11/1 K/BB in 9 IP). He throws an MLB-ready fastball/slider combination, and while his control keeps him from being a closer, he could be a valuable reliever starting this season. Young has also spent his minor league career as a starter and there is still some chance he starts in the majors, but I see him more as a relief prospect after a mediocre 2018 (5.17 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 109/39 K/BB in 130.2 IP at Jackson and Reno). His stuff is fringy and could play up in the bullpen, and as a lefty he could be deployed strategically. Look for him as a potential long reliever.
Thursday, November 22, 2018
Reviewing the Washington Nationals Farm System
Coming into the season, the Nationals' farm system was very top heavy, and with Juan Soto no longer a prospect and not much up to take his place, the system is pretty shallow behind top prospects Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. Even with a heavy emphasis on drafting pitching in recent years, the system remains hitter-heavy as many of those pitchers have failed to materialize into legitimate prospects. Fortunately, the Nationals are fairly deep at two of the toughest positions to find: catcher and shortstop.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019
The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.
Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.
Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.
Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.
Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Yankees Kick Off Offseason, Acquire James Paxton
Yankees Get
LHP James Paxton (Age 30): 11-6, 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 208/42 K/BB, 160.1 IP
Mariners Get
LHP Justus Sheffield (Age 22): 0-0, 10.13 ERA, 2.63 WHIP, 0/3 K/BB, 2.2 IP
RHP Erik Swanson (Age 25): 8-2, 2.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 139/29 K/BB, 121.2 IP at Short Season, AA, and AAA
OF Dom Thompson-Williams (Age 23): 22 HR, .299/.363/.546, 20 SB, 156 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Yankees Perspective
The Yankees kicked off the offseason with the first big splash, bringing in an above average major league starter that looks like an ace when he's healthy; unfortunately, James Paxton has never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (162) as he has struggled to stay on the mound, though he has been healthier the past two seasons. Since 2017, the big Canadian lefty is 23-11 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 364/79 strikeout to walk ratio over 296.1 innings; that's pretty darn good. Luis Severino will be back as the ace, but Paxton will fit in well as a #2 starter ahead of Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, and presumably one other yet-to-be-signed free agent addition like J.A. Happ. Losing Sheffield hurts, but Paxton is under team control for both 2019 and 2020 and no pitching prospect is a safe bet. The other two prospects lost were good players in their own rights but didn't really fit into the Yankees' long term plans. For his career, the former Kentucky Wildcat is 41-26 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 617/168 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 starts since 2013.
Mariners Perspective
The Mariners never really got over that contention hump, building up a team that was good but not good enough to pass the Astros. Now, they'll start adding to what looks like arguably the weakest farm system in baseball by bringing in three close-to-the-big-leagues talents, and Justus Sheffield immediately becomes arguably the top prospect overall. He's a 6' lefty who put up a strong minor league season with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 123/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings between AA Trenton and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. His command is just okay but his stuff is good enough to make him a mid-rotation starter in the near future, and it would not be surprising to see Sheffield break camp in the team's rotation in 2019. Erik Swanson is coming up right behind Sheffield, having dominated at AA Trenton (0.42 ERA, 55/15 K/BB in 42.2 IP) before carrying some of that success over to AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre (3.86 ERA, 78/14 K/BB in 72.1 IP). He's more of a pitchability prospect with a lower ceiling than Sheffield, but he too could join the 2019 rotation as a back-end guy who can get outs. Having just turned 25 in September, he's an older prospect but that's okay considering he's just about major league ready. Lastly, Dom Thompson-Williams is a little farther off but comes with a high ceiling. Over 100 games between Class A Charleston and High A Tampa, he slashed .299/.363/.546 with 22 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 102/33 strikeout to walk ratio, showing power and speed but some rawness in his approach for a 23 year old in the mid-minors. The numbers are great but he's a little old for where he is in the minors and he probably ends up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't shore up his approach in 2019.
LHP James Paxton (Age 30): 11-6, 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 208/42 K/BB, 160.1 IP
Mariners Get
LHP Justus Sheffield (Age 22): 0-0, 10.13 ERA, 2.63 WHIP, 0/3 K/BB, 2.2 IP
RHP Erik Swanson (Age 25): 8-2, 2.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 139/29 K/BB, 121.2 IP at Short Season, AA, and AAA
OF Dom Thompson-Williams (Age 23): 22 HR, .299/.363/.546, 20 SB, 156 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Yankees Perspective
The Yankees kicked off the offseason with the first big splash, bringing in an above average major league starter that looks like an ace when he's healthy; unfortunately, James Paxton has never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title (162) as he has struggled to stay on the mound, though he has been healthier the past two seasons. Since 2017, the big Canadian lefty is 23-11 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 364/79 strikeout to walk ratio over 296.1 innings; that's pretty darn good. Luis Severino will be back as the ace, but Paxton will fit in well as a #2 starter ahead of Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, and presumably one other yet-to-be-signed free agent addition like J.A. Happ. Losing Sheffield hurts, but Paxton is under team control for both 2019 and 2020 and no pitching prospect is a safe bet. The other two prospects lost were good players in their own rights but didn't really fit into the Yankees' long term plans. For his career, the former Kentucky Wildcat is 41-26 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 617/168 strikeout to walk ratio over 102 starts since 2013.
Mariners Perspective
The Mariners never really got over that contention hump, building up a team that was good but not good enough to pass the Astros. Now, they'll start adding to what looks like arguably the weakest farm system in baseball by bringing in three close-to-the-big-leagues talents, and Justus Sheffield immediately becomes arguably the top prospect overall. He's a 6' lefty who put up a strong minor league season with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 123/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings between AA Trenton and AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre. His command is just okay but his stuff is good enough to make him a mid-rotation starter in the near future, and it would not be surprising to see Sheffield break camp in the team's rotation in 2019. Erik Swanson is coming up right behind Sheffield, having dominated at AA Trenton (0.42 ERA, 55/15 K/BB in 42.2 IP) before carrying some of that success over to AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre (3.86 ERA, 78/14 K/BB in 72.1 IP). He's more of a pitchability prospect with a lower ceiling than Sheffield, but he too could join the 2019 rotation as a back-end guy who can get outs. Having just turned 25 in September, he's an older prospect but that's okay considering he's just about major league ready. Lastly, Dom Thompson-Williams is a little farther off but comes with a high ceiling. Over 100 games between Class A Charleston and High A Tampa, he slashed .299/.363/.546 with 22 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 102/33 strikeout to walk ratio, showing power and speed but some rawness in his approach for a 23 year old in the mid-minors. The numbers are great but he's a little old for where he is in the minors and he probably ends up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't shore up his approach in 2019.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
Reviewing the Los Angeles Angels Farm System
Fortunately, the Angels' farm system is in a much better place than it was just a few years ago, when it was the worst in baseball. Now, headliner Jo Adell has given it a facelift and there are some nice names behind him, but it still lacks much impact talent once you get past the first few names on the list. It's an offense-heavy list with a lot of high-upside bats scattered throughout, with the few notable arms in the system mostly concentrated in the upper-minors.
Affiliates: AAA Salt Lake City Bees, AA Mobile BayBears, High A Inland Empire 66ers, Class A Burlington Bees, Rookie level Orem Owlz, complex level AZL and DSL Angels
The Headliner: OF Jo Adell
Drafted in the first round (tenth overall) out of a Louisville-area high school in 2017, 19 year old Jo Adell has already made a name for himself on a national scale and is arguably one of the top ten prospects in baseball after a huge 2018. Over 99 games, he slashed .290/.355/.543 with 20 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 111/32 strikeout to walk ratio across three levels, reaching all the way up to AA Mobile as a teenager. He shows power, speed, the ability to get on base, and good defense in the outfield, so the only knock on his game is some swing and miss. Otherwise, he looks like a future All Star that could be an annual 30 homer, 20 stolen base threat, and it doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine him holding up an AL MVP Award. If the Angels can figure out a way to keep Mike Trout, a core of Trout, Adell, and Shohei Ohtani will be fun to watch.
Other High-Upside Hitters: OF Brandon Marsh, 2B Jahmai Jones, OF D'Shawn Knowles, SS Kevin Maitan, OF Jordyn Adams, and SS Nonie Williams
Adell isn't the only high-upside hitter in this system, though many of the others have been disappointing and look farther from reaching their lofty ceilings than originally thought. We'll start with 20 year old Brandon Marsh, who hasn't been a total disappointment. The outfielder slashed .295/.390/.470 in 34 games at Class A Burlington, but put up a more pedestrian .256/.348/.385 line in 93 games at hitter-friendly High A Inland Empire, combining for ten home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 158/73 strikeout to walk ratio. Marsh is still young and it's nice to see the power/speed/patience combination as a hitter, but the strikeouts are a little high and we're still waiting on a breakout. If anything, I do think the power will come along, though I'm not sold on the contact. 21 year old Jahmai Jones was cruising through the low to mid minors until his bat regressed in 2018, where he slashed .239/.337/.380 with ten home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 114/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Inland Empire and AA Mobile. If you can get past the handedness, his offensive profile is not too dissimilar to Marsh's, as both show moderate power, good speed, and patience at the plate while struggling a bit with the strikeout. I think Marsh has a more power potential and therefore more breakout potential while Jones is a little faster and has a better track record, and on defense Jones plays second base. Overall, he looks like a utility infielder at this point but could surprise if he rights the ship in AA next year. 18 year old Kevin Maitan has been a big disappointment so far, and that's difficult to do at that age. Regarded as potentially the next Chipper Jones when he signed for over $4 million with the Braves in 2016, he slashed .248/.306/.397 with eight home runs and a 66/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at rookie level Orem last year, showing the prodigious raw power that originally got him that big signing bonus but struggling to make contact and get to his power. He has plenty of time to right the ship and still has some of the best upside in the system, but he's going to take longer to develop and has a lower chance of reaching that ceiling than originally expected. 19 year old Jordyn Adams was a first rounder (17th overall) out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2018, and he hit .267/.361/.381 with no homers but five stolen bases in 29 games between complex ball and Orem this year. He's raw, with his best attribute being his blinding speed (he could have been a wide receiver at UNC), but he has the chance to grow under pro coaching and become a leadoff man with some pop. However, he has a long way to get there and first has to prove he can make contact against higher level pitching. Turning the tide a little bit, 17 year old D'Shawn Knowles has actually been a pleasant surprise so far, slashing .311/.391/.464 with five home runs and nine stolen bases across 58 games between complex ball and Orem in 2018, showing an advanced bat for someone so young and holding up well in his first taste of pro pitching. Knowles is known more as a strong defensive outfielder with a raw bat, but it might not be as raw as expected and he has a chance to be one of the better prospects in this system come next season. Watch this name. Lastly, 20 year old Nonie Williams has been a huge disappointment since being drafted in the third round (96th overall) out of the Kansas City area in 2016. Through three seasons, he still has not gotten above Orem and has slashed .219/.279/.301 with three home runs and 20 stolen bases over 121 games, his 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio holding him down. The Angels knew he was raw when they drafted him, but he's going to have to right the ship soon if he wants to become the all-around player the Angels thought they drafted.
High Floor Hitters: 1B Matt Thaiss, SS Luis Rengifo, OF Michael Hermosillo, OF Brennan Lund, SS Leonardo Rivas, SS Jeremiah Jackson, and SS Livan Soto
The players on this list don't necessarily have star upside, but they have less bust risk than on the previous list. Some have a chance to become starters, but ultimately they're likely to bench assets. Most of these guys are naturally closer to the majors but some are a little farther down. 23 year old Matt Thaiss has the most name recognition as a first round pick (16th overall) out of UVA in 2016, showing some power and plate discipline but not doing what he needs to do to stand out as a first base only prospect. In 2018, he slashed .280/.335/.467 with 16 home runs and a 103/44 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Mobile and AAA Salt Lake City, his walk rate dropping from 2017 but otherwise not losing any production. The Angels want to project him as Albert Pujols' replacement at first base, but I think he'll end up somewhere around a league average hitter, which is okay for most positions but not great for a first baseman. 21 year old Luis Rengifo is also knocking on the door as a potential utility player, having slashed .299/.399/.452 with seven home runs, 41 stolen bases, and a very nice 75/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between High A Inland Empire, Mobile, and Salt Lake City. The bat is just a little light, but the rest of his game is coming along nicely with his plate discipline, speed, and defense all looking above average. Second base might be his best bet to start, but I think he will at least be a useful utility man. 23 year old outfielders Michael Hermosillo and Brennon Lund are looking to capture fourth outfield spots, with the former a little closer than the latter. Hermosillo slashed .267/.357/.480 with 12 home runs and ten stolen bases in 68 games at Salt Lake City, then .211/.274/.333 in 31 MLB games. He strikes out a bit too much but he has some speed and some pop. Lund spent the year at Mobile, slashing .264/.343/.404 with eight home runs and 21 stolen bases across 100 games, showing a similar profile to Hermosillo. Both show some power, speed, and patience, though both also tend to swing and miss and don't have the power to make up for that. Lastly, we have three low-level shortstop prospects in 21 year old Leonardo Rivas and 18 year olds Jeremiah Jackson and Livan Soto. As you would expect, Rivas is the most advanced, having slashed .234/.354/.333 with five homers, 16 stolen bases, and an interesting 140/84 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly at Class A Burlington. The bat is very light and he will likely never be a big league starter, but he walks so much that we just can't ignore him for now. Jackson was just taken in the second round (57th overall) out of high school in Mobile, and he slashed .254/.314/.491 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 59/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball and rookie level Orem. He has the highest upside of this trio and is the most likely to become a starter, potentially replacing Andrelton Simmons down the road, but he has a long way to go and he profiles more as a solid utility man than as a starter. He does have some power and plate discipline but may have to move off shortstop and instead compete at third base. Lastly, Soto's profile resembles Rivas' more than it does Jackson's, as he slashed .291/.385/.349 with no home runs, nine stolen bases, and an even 24/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. Like Rivas, he has a light bat with no power but also an excellent eye at the plate. He also plays better defense than Rivas and is younger, and I'd argue he has a higher ceiling, but he'll have to show at least some sock in the bat to move up.
Notable Pitchers: Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Soriano, Stiward Aquino, and Chris Rodriguez
The Angels are very shallow in pitching prospects, though they do have three that stand out as potential impact arms and three more that are a long way off and could develop into such. These six are pretty good prospects in their own right, but there's a drop-off afterwards and there aren't too many other candidates to join this list. 22 year old Griffin Canning looks to have the best combination of floor and ceiling at this point, coming off a year where he posted a 3.65 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, jumping all the way from High A Inland Empire to AAA Salt Lake City. His numbers dipped progressively over each level, as is natural, and he'll probably need more time at AAA next season, but he has moved through the minor leagues very quickly for a 2017 draftee and could be a mid rotation starter by mid-season. The ceiling isn't very high with him, but he's not just your run of the mill, back-end starter type. 20 year old Jose Suarez doesn't get as much attention as perhaps he should, reaching AAA at a very young age and holding his own there. Like Canning, he pitched at Inland Empire, AA Mobile, and Salt Lake City in 2018 and his numbers progressively dipped, but he's almost two years younger and posted a 3.92 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 142/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings. He's just 5'10" and throws in the low 90's, but the lefty is very advanced for his age and looks like a safe bet to be a #4ish starter, someone who can get outs and throw strikes consistently. He won't be an ace, but he should be a productive, long-term starting option. 22 year old Patrick Sandoval came over in the Martin Maldonado trade, and he had a huge breakout year in 2018. The 6'3" lefty went 11-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 145/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.1 innings despite pitching for four different minor league teams across three levels from Class A up to AA. Like Suarez, he doesn't throw too hard, but he commands his pitches very well and mixes up his deep arsenal well enough to miss a lot of bats and induce a lot of weak contact. He probably has a higher ceiling than both Canning and Suarez, and though he doesn't quite have the same floor, he could join them to make a very solid back three of the rotation behind whoever ends up at the front. 20 year olds Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez as well as 19 year old Stiward Aquino haven't done much yet, but they have breakout potential in a system that lacks many pitching options. Soriano is the most advanced, having put up a 4.47 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 42/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings at Class A Burlington, showing the building blocks for success though he has not put it together yet. He throws hard, up to 97 at times, and his skinny 6'3" frame projects more velocity, but he struggles with command and has not yet refined his secondary pitches. Aquino put up a 3.99 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio across 29.1 innings in complex ball, obviously a long way off but showing perhaps the best ceiling in the organization. He's a 6'6" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a curveball that's coming along well, so he just needs to keep on the development arc he's currently on. He might never get above A ball, but keep an eye on him. Lastly, Rodriguez missed the season with injuries but shows a good combination of stuff and command, and he could develop into a Griffin Canning type down the road if he can get healthy and get consistent. Obviously, he's a long way off as well.
Affiliates: AAA Salt Lake City Bees, AA Mobile BayBears, High A Inland Empire 66ers, Class A Burlington Bees, Rookie level Orem Owlz, complex level AZL and DSL Angels
The Headliner: OF Jo Adell
Drafted in the first round (tenth overall) out of a Louisville-area high school in 2017, 19 year old Jo Adell has already made a name for himself on a national scale and is arguably one of the top ten prospects in baseball after a huge 2018. Over 99 games, he slashed .290/.355/.543 with 20 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 111/32 strikeout to walk ratio across three levels, reaching all the way up to AA Mobile as a teenager. He shows power, speed, the ability to get on base, and good defense in the outfield, so the only knock on his game is some swing and miss. Otherwise, he looks like a future All Star that could be an annual 30 homer, 20 stolen base threat, and it doesn't take a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine him holding up an AL MVP Award. If the Angels can figure out a way to keep Mike Trout, a core of Trout, Adell, and Shohei Ohtani will be fun to watch.
Other High-Upside Hitters: OF Brandon Marsh, 2B Jahmai Jones, OF D'Shawn Knowles, SS Kevin Maitan, OF Jordyn Adams, and SS Nonie Williams
Adell isn't the only high-upside hitter in this system, though many of the others have been disappointing and look farther from reaching their lofty ceilings than originally thought. We'll start with 20 year old Brandon Marsh, who hasn't been a total disappointment. The outfielder slashed .295/.390/.470 in 34 games at Class A Burlington, but put up a more pedestrian .256/.348/.385 line in 93 games at hitter-friendly High A Inland Empire, combining for ten home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 158/73 strikeout to walk ratio. Marsh is still young and it's nice to see the power/speed/patience combination as a hitter, but the strikeouts are a little high and we're still waiting on a breakout. If anything, I do think the power will come along, though I'm not sold on the contact. 21 year old Jahmai Jones was cruising through the low to mid minors until his bat regressed in 2018, where he slashed .239/.337/.380 with ten home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 114/67 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between Inland Empire and AA Mobile. If you can get past the handedness, his offensive profile is not too dissimilar to Marsh's, as both show moderate power, good speed, and patience at the plate while struggling a bit with the strikeout. I think Marsh has a more power potential and therefore more breakout potential while Jones is a little faster and has a better track record, and on defense Jones plays second base. Overall, he looks like a utility infielder at this point but could surprise if he rights the ship in AA next year. 18 year old Kevin Maitan has been a big disappointment so far, and that's difficult to do at that age. Regarded as potentially the next Chipper Jones when he signed for over $4 million with the Braves in 2016, he slashed .248/.306/.397 with eight home runs and a 66/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at rookie level Orem last year, showing the prodigious raw power that originally got him that big signing bonus but struggling to make contact and get to his power. He has plenty of time to right the ship and still has some of the best upside in the system, but he's going to take longer to develop and has a lower chance of reaching that ceiling than originally expected. 19 year old Jordyn Adams was a first rounder (17th overall) out of high school in the Raleigh area in 2018, and he hit .267/.361/.381 with no homers but five stolen bases in 29 games between complex ball and Orem this year. He's raw, with his best attribute being his blinding speed (he could have been a wide receiver at UNC), but he has the chance to grow under pro coaching and become a leadoff man with some pop. However, he has a long way to get there and first has to prove he can make contact against higher level pitching. Turning the tide a little bit, 17 year old D'Shawn Knowles has actually been a pleasant surprise so far, slashing .311/.391/.464 with five home runs and nine stolen bases across 58 games between complex ball and Orem in 2018, showing an advanced bat for someone so young and holding up well in his first taste of pro pitching. Knowles is known more as a strong defensive outfielder with a raw bat, but it might not be as raw as expected and he has a chance to be one of the better prospects in this system come next season. Watch this name. Lastly, 20 year old Nonie Williams has been a huge disappointment since being drafted in the third round (96th overall) out of the Kansas City area in 2016. Through three seasons, he still has not gotten above Orem and has slashed .219/.279/.301 with three home runs and 20 stolen bases over 121 games, his 143/36 strikeout to walk ratio holding him down. The Angels knew he was raw when they drafted him, but he's going to have to right the ship soon if he wants to become the all-around player the Angels thought they drafted.
High Floor Hitters: 1B Matt Thaiss, SS Luis Rengifo, OF Michael Hermosillo, OF Brennan Lund, SS Leonardo Rivas, SS Jeremiah Jackson, and SS Livan Soto
The players on this list don't necessarily have star upside, but they have less bust risk than on the previous list. Some have a chance to become starters, but ultimately they're likely to bench assets. Most of these guys are naturally closer to the majors but some are a little farther down. 23 year old Matt Thaiss has the most name recognition as a first round pick (16th overall) out of UVA in 2016, showing some power and plate discipline but not doing what he needs to do to stand out as a first base only prospect. In 2018, he slashed .280/.335/.467 with 16 home runs and a 103/44 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Mobile and AAA Salt Lake City, his walk rate dropping from 2017 but otherwise not losing any production. The Angels want to project him as Albert Pujols' replacement at first base, but I think he'll end up somewhere around a league average hitter, which is okay for most positions but not great for a first baseman. 21 year old Luis Rengifo is also knocking on the door as a potential utility player, having slashed .299/.399/.452 with seven home runs, 41 stolen bases, and a very nice 75/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between High A Inland Empire, Mobile, and Salt Lake City. The bat is just a little light, but the rest of his game is coming along nicely with his plate discipline, speed, and defense all looking above average. Second base might be his best bet to start, but I think he will at least be a useful utility man. 23 year old outfielders Michael Hermosillo and Brennon Lund are looking to capture fourth outfield spots, with the former a little closer than the latter. Hermosillo slashed .267/.357/.480 with 12 home runs and ten stolen bases in 68 games at Salt Lake City, then .211/.274/.333 in 31 MLB games. He strikes out a bit too much but he has some speed and some pop. Lund spent the year at Mobile, slashing .264/.343/.404 with eight home runs and 21 stolen bases across 100 games, showing a similar profile to Hermosillo. Both show some power, speed, and patience, though both also tend to swing and miss and don't have the power to make up for that. Lastly, we have three low-level shortstop prospects in 21 year old Leonardo Rivas and 18 year olds Jeremiah Jackson and Livan Soto. As you would expect, Rivas is the most advanced, having slashed .234/.354/.333 with five homers, 16 stolen bases, and an interesting 140/84 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly at Class A Burlington. The bat is very light and he will likely never be a big league starter, but he walks so much that we just can't ignore him for now. Jackson was just taken in the second round (57th overall) out of high school in Mobile, and he slashed .254/.314/.491 with seven home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 59/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games between complex ball and rookie level Orem. He has the highest upside of this trio and is the most likely to become a starter, potentially replacing Andrelton Simmons down the road, but he has a long way to go and he profiles more as a solid utility man than as a starter. He does have some power and plate discipline but may have to move off shortstop and instead compete at third base. Lastly, Soto's profile resembles Rivas' more than it does Jackson's, as he slashed .291/.385/.349 with no home runs, nine stolen bases, and an even 24/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. Like Rivas, he has a light bat with no power but also an excellent eye at the plate. He also plays better defense than Rivas and is younger, and I'd argue he has a higher ceiling, but he'll have to show at least some sock in the bat to move up.
Notable Pitchers: Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Soriano, Stiward Aquino, and Chris Rodriguez
The Angels are very shallow in pitching prospects, though they do have three that stand out as potential impact arms and three more that are a long way off and could develop into such. These six are pretty good prospects in their own right, but there's a drop-off afterwards and there aren't too many other candidates to join this list. 22 year old Griffin Canning looks to have the best combination of floor and ceiling at this point, coming off a year where he posted a 3.65 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 125/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, jumping all the way from High A Inland Empire to AAA Salt Lake City. His numbers dipped progressively over each level, as is natural, and he'll probably need more time at AAA next season, but he has moved through the minor leagues very quickly for a 2017 draftee and could be a mid rotation starter by mid-season. The ceiling isn't very high with him, but he's not just your run of the mill, back-end starter type. 20 year old Jose Suarez doesn't get as much attention as perhaps he should, reaching AAA at a very young age and holding his own there. Like Canning, he pitched at Inland Empire, AA Mobile, and Salt Lake City in 2018 and his numbers progressively dipped, but he's almost two years younger and posted a 3.92 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 142/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings. He's just 5'10" and throws in the low 90's, but the lefty is very advanced for his age and looks like a safe bet to be a #4ish starter, someone who can get outs and throw strikes consistently. He won't be an ace, but he should be a productive, long-term starting option. 22 year old Patrick Sandoval came over in the Martin Maldonado trade, and he had a huge breakout year in 2018. The 6'3" lefty went 11-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 145/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.1 innings despite pitching for four different minor league teams across three levels from Class A up to AA. Like Suarez, he doesn't throw too hard, but he commands his pitches very well and mixes up his deep arsenal well enough to miss a lot of bats and induce a lot of weak contact. He probably has a higher ceiling than both Canning and Suarez, and though he doesn't quite have the same floor, he could join them to make a very solid back three of the rotation behind whoever ends up at the front. 20 year olds Jose Soriano and Chris Rodriguez as well as 19 year old Stiward Aquino haven't done much yet, but they have breakout potential in a system that lacks many pitching options. Soriano is the most advanced, having put up a 4.47 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 42/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.1 innings at Class A Burlington, showing the building blocks for success though he has not put it together yet. He throws hard, up to 97 at times, and his skinny 6'3" frame projects more velocity, but he struggles with command and has not yet refined his secondary pitches. Aquino put up a 3.99 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio across 29.1 innings in complex ball, obviously a long way off but showing perhaps the best ceiling in the organization. He's a 6'6" righty with a mid 90's fastball and a curveball that's coming along well, so he just needs to keep on the development arc he's currently on. He might never get above A ball, but keep an eye on him. Lastly, Rodriguez missed the season with injuries but shows a good combination of stuff and command, and he could develop into a Griffin Canning type down the road if he can get healthy and get consistent. Obviously, he's a long way off as well.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
Reviewing the San Francisco Giants Farm System
The Giants have a couple of exciting prospects at the top of their system, but once you get past Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, there really isn't much going on here. There is a decent amount of upside in the system, but most players come with significant risk and overall I expect relatively few of these players to make meaningful big league contributions. The ones that do, though, could could be big. It's a little pitching heavy, though the consensus top two prospects in the system, Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos, are position players. Aside from Shaun Anderson and possibly Sean Hjelle, most pitching prospects in this system look to have a high relief risk.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta Green Jackets, Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL (Orange and Black) and DSL Giants
The Headliner: C Joey Bart
Sometimes, things just work out, as was the case with 21 year old Joey Bart and the Giants. Pablo Sandoval's season ending, walk off home run in 2017 may have given the Tigers the first overall pick, and while Casey Mize would have been nice, Bart just fits perfectly into the Giants' plans. He'll be ready to take over at catcher just as Buster Posey is transitioned to a new position. Bart had a monster year at Georgia Tech this year, and after being selected second overall, he slashed .294/.364/.588 with 13 home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games, mostly with Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has huge power, some of the best in the minors, though his plate discipline is relatively mediocre and contact may be a concern at the higher levels. He has worked hard to improve his defense and has a cannon behind the plate, and overall the package resembles Gary Sanchez. At the least, I expect Bart to at least be something of a Mike Zunino to the Giants, but honestly I think he'll iron out the contact issues and become and All Star. Look for him to start 2019 at Class A Augusta, but he'll likely be at High A San Jose sooner rather than later if he doesn't start there outright.
The Rest of the Hitters: OF Heliot Ramos, OF Chris Shaw, C Aramis Garcia, SS Abiatal Avelino, OF Heath Quinn, 3B Jacob Gonzalez, OF Sandro Fabian, 3B David Villar, SS Marco Luciano, and OF Alexander Canario
The Giants are not deep when it comes to minor league hitters, especially after headliner Joey Bart, so I decided to lump the rest of the interesting ones into one long section. There's one or two interesting bats in each phase of development for the Giants, and while the wealth is nice and spread out from top to bottom of the development ladder, there are really only two "impact" prospects on this list. 19 year old Heliot Ramos is the consensus #2 prospect in this system, right behind Bart, and may have the highest ceiling out of anyone. He was drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Puerto Rico in 2017, showcasing huge power and some good speed despite being extremely young for the draft class. Playing all of 2018 at just 18 years old, he slashed .245/.313/.396 with eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Augusta. While those numbers aren't exactly inspiring, he was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League and he has plenty of time to develop. The stock isn't up from when he was drafted, but it's not really down either; we're still in wait-and-see mode, and the teenage outfielder still has the ceiling of a 30 homer bat with the ability to get on base and steal a few bags. Starting back at the top of the minors, 25 year olds Chris Shaw and Aramis Garcia, as well as 23 year old Abiatal Avelino, are looking to make an impact soon. Shaw probably has the best chance of the three, coming off a year where he slashed .259/.308/.505 with 24 home runs and a 144/21 strikeout to walk ratio across 101 games for AAA Sacramento. He didn't fare as well in 22 major league games (1 HR, .185/.274/.278), with big power and big strikeout concerns standing out. The Boston College product is limited defensively to the outfield and first base, so he'll have to make contact to stick in the majors, but he does have the upside of a 30 homer bat in the Lucas Duda or Matt Adams mold. Garcia, meanwhile, has been a prospect for a long time (he turns 26 in January) and as a catcher with Buster Posey currently manning the position and with Joey Bart breathing down his neck, Garcia's window of opportunity is fairly limited. In 2018, he slashed .233/.285/.381 with eleven home runs and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Richmond and Sacramento, then hit .286/.308/.492 with four home runs in a 19 game MLB debut. He's pretty much decent across the board, with no glaring weaknesses but no real strengths either; he has some pop, can usually make contact, and is good enough behind the plate, but it all amounts more to a back-up profile than a starting one. Avelino came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade and had a nice year, slashing .283/.329/.438 with 15 home runs between AA and AAA, but that power surge is looking more like a mirage and he looks like a utility infielder. Slightly farther down into the minors, 23 year old Heath Quinn and 20 year olds Jacob Gonzalez and Sandro Fabian lead the mid-minors pack behind Ramos. Quinn is older and has been a regular producer, fairing well in his second run at the High A California League by slashing .300/.376/.485 with 14 home runs and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 96 games. I like the power and I think he makes enough contact to where he could be a productive major league bat, but he has some tweener risk and could end up a fourth outfielder. Gonzalez too is a power hitter, though he struggles to make contact and slashed .227/.296/.331 with eight home runs at Class A Augusta this year. The power is for real and he probably has more of it than Quinn, but he gets to it much less often and I think he could end up being a bust. Fabian, however, has a different profile. His .200/.260/.325 slash line with ten home runs and a 107/26 strikeout to walk ratio was extremely underwhelming in the High A California League, but he did play the whole season at just 20 years old and was fairly young for the level. He's a good defender in the outfield who has spent his whole minor league career playing up with guys older than him, and the Giants are just waiting for that bat to pick up. I think his long term outlook is probably fairly similar to Quinn's with less power and better defense, but he'll just take a different road to get there as a young kid playing up with older players rather than an older prospect hitting well against younger competition. Lastly, 21 year old David Villar, 17 year old Marco Luciano, and 18 year old Alexander Canario round out the interesting prospects in the low minors. Villar, just drafted out of USF in the eleventh round in 2018, is off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .282/.342/.535 with 13 home runs and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between complex ball and Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has big power but his approach may be exploited as he moves up in the minors, and his bat will probably end up somewhere between Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw in a couple of years. He's not considered a top prospect but I think he's one to watch. Luciano and Canario are the farthest off from the majors, with Canario having played just 111 pro games, all in complex ball (slashing .275/.376/.438 with 11 HR and 26 SB) and Luciano yet to step on the pro diamond. Both have very high ceilings and could honestly be All Stars. Luciano generates his power from a wiry 6'2" frame and plenty of loft in his swing, though I can see contact being a potential concern once he gets into games. Meanwhile, Canario has less present power but more bat speed, and I think altering his swing mechanics to give him more loft and to get him more balanced at the plate can help him take off; he has already shown strong plate discipline against complex ball competition. Luciano is currently a shortstop but is more likely a third baseman in the future, while Canario is a speedy center fielder.
Arms We Could See in 2019: Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Garrett Williams, and Ray Black
The Giants do a good job of converting upper-minors pitching into useable major league arms, but recently they've struggled to convert them into much more than just that: useable (we'll see what happens with Dereck Rodriguez). Here is the next wave, and while all have breakthrough potential, they probably will end up along the lines of the current crop of recently graduated arms, which includes Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton, Steven Okert, and Reyes Moronta in addition to Rodriguez. 24 year old Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez deal, has since established himself as the system's top pitching prospect with a solid 2018. In 25 games (24 starts) between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the 6'4" righty went 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 127/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 141.1 innings, adapting well to the upper minors by showing strong command of his pretty good stuff. He looks like a back-end starter right now, but he has the best chance on this list to be the first home-grown impact pitcher for the Giants since Hunter Strickland came up in 2014, and the first impact starter since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. 21 year old Logan Webb quietly had a very good season in 2018, going 2-5 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 100/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings between High A San Jose and Richmond. The 6'2" righty is extremely raw after missing significant time with injuries, but his mid 90's fastball got him all the way up to AA this year at the age of 21 despite the missed time. The rest of his game needs significant work, but the Giants hope his 2018 breakthrough will lead to development in those areas. If not, he profiles as a middle reliever, but he's one to watch in 2019. 25 year old Tyler Beede was a first round pick (14th overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2014, and after rocketing up to AA by 2015 and pitching well at the level in 2016, he has stalled ever since. In 2018, he was 4-9 with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an 81/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings between Sacramento and rehab work, showing explosive stuff at times and flattening out at others. His fastball can sit anywhere in the 90's and the quality of his offspeeds are just as inconsistent, but his command has been getting worse. The Giants shifted him to the bullpen mid-season but the results weren't much better, and the clock is ticking; he'll be 26 in May. 24 year old Garrett Williams has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, missing significant time with injuries while at Oklahoma State and subsequently struggling with command in the minors. He had a 2.32 ERA and a 96/35 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose in 2017, but limped to a 6.06 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 73/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings with Richmond this season. He has an explosive fastball/curveball combination that gets plenty of swings and misses, but he can't seem to throw strikes. The 6'1" lefty was converted to relief midway through the season, where like Beede he still didn't find success, and I think he's better suited there. I still like Williams and think he could take a step forward and become a useful reliever in the majors, especially given how volatile he has been throughout his career; 2018 could end up being the aberration rather than 2017. Lastly, 28 year old Ray Black is an interesting one, as you would expect from a 28 year old that I still choose to write about. Injuries have kept him off the mound for long periods of time, and he didn't even through his first professional pitch until he was almost 24. Now, he is armed with an exceptional fastball that sits in the upper 90's and has hit 104 in the past, leading to a 2.52 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over just 35.2 innings between Richmond and Sacramento; that's a 48.5% strikeout rate. He had a 6.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 33/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings in the majors (34.7% strikeout rate), and he profiles as an extremely interesting middle reliever.
Projection Arms: Melvin Adon, Sean Hjelle, Juan De Paula, Seth Corry, Gregory Santos, and Jake Wong
Again, there is not much depth, but the Giants do have a couple of interesting arms down lower on the farm. 24 year old Melvin Adon, who won't reach the majors in 2019 and therefore doesn't quite fit on the previous list, is the most advanced in this section. He ran into some trouble with High A San Jose in 2018, going 2-6 with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, but he has recently been strong in the Arizona Fall League. The Giants have tried to develop him as a starter, but after 2018 he looks more like a power reliever with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider. 21 year old Sean Hjelle, drafted in the second round (45th overall) out of Kentucky in 2018, might be the safest bet in this whole group, finishing his pro debut with a 5.06 ERA but a nice 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings at Short Season Salem-Keizer. At 6'11", he is a massive string bean that comes at hitters on a steep downhill plane with a low 90's fastball and a good curveball, with his overall game plan resembling Chris Young more than it does Randy Johnson. He looks like a very tall back-end starter at this point but could move quickly. 21 year old Juan De Paula came over from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen deal, and while the Yankees moved him along slowly, the Giants might choose to speed that up. De Paula posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings between the Yankees' Short Season affiliate and one very good start with the Giants' Class A Augusta. He comes with high risk as a low minors pitcher who has never cracked 80 innings in a season, but there is a lot of upside to unlock and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants' system. Look for anything from an A-ball flameout to an impact starter. 20 year old Seth Corry might be in a similar spot to De Paula, though he's a lefty with less of a track record. Corry was sharp in 38 innings in complex ball (2.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB) but struggled in 19.2 innings in Short Season ball (5.49 ERA, 17/15 K/BB). His best attribute is an explosive curveball, but he needs to throw more strikes and has a lot of development to go through. I'd argue that his ceiling and floor are both slightly lower than that of De Paula. Meanwhile, 19 year old Gregory Santos spent the whole season in Short Season ball and put up a 4.53 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 46/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. He has a good combination of stuff and control for his age, but he just needs to learn to put it together. He keeps the ball on the ground remarkably well, and he could move up as a back-end starter. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Wong was drafted after Hjelle in the third round in 2018 (80th overall), then posted a 2.30 ERA and a 27/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 Short Season innings in his debut. The initial returns are promising for Wong, though I ultimately think he ends up in the bullpen with an underwhelming stuff/command package for his age.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta Green Jackets, Short Season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL (Orange and Black) and DSL Giants
The Headliner: C Joey Bart
Sometimes, things just work out, as was the case with 21 year old Joey Bart and the Giants. Pablo Sandoval's season ending, walk off home run in 2017 may have given the Tigers the first overall pick, and while Casey Mize would have been nice, Bart just fits perfectly into the Giants' plans. He'll be ready to take over at catcher just as Buster Posey is transitioned to a new position. Bart had a monster year at Georgia Tech this year, and after being selected second overall, he slashed .294/.364/.588 with 13 home runs and a 47/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 51 games, mostly with Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has huge power, some of the best in the minors, though his plate discipline is relatively mediocre and contact may be a concern at the higher levels. He has worked hard to improve his defense and has a cannon behind the plate, and overall the package resembles Gary Sanchez. At the least, I expect Bart to at least be something of a Mike Zunino to the Giants, but honestly I think he'll iron out the contact issues and become and All Star. Look for him to start 2019 at Class A Augusta, but he'll likely be at High A San Jose sooner rather than later if he doesn't start there outright.
The Rest of the Hitters: OF Heliot Ramos, OF Chris Shaw, C Aramis Garcia, SS Abiatal Avelino, OF Heath Quinn, 3B Jacob Gonzalez, OF Sandro Fabian, 3B David Villar, SS Marco Luciano, and OF Alexander Canario
The Giants are not deep when it comes to minor league hitters, especially after headliner Joey Bart, so I decided to lump the rest of the interesting ones into one long section. There's one or two interesting bats in each phase of development for the Giants, and while the wealth is nice and spread out from top to bottom of the development ladder, there are really only two "impact" prospects on this list. 19 year old Heliot Ramos is the consensus #2 prospect in this system, right behind Bart, and may have the highest ceiling out of anyone. He was drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of Puerto Rico in 2017, showcasing huge power and some good speed despite being extremely young for the draft class. Playing all of 2018 at just 18 years old, he slashed .245/.313/.396 with eleven home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games at Class A Augusta. While those numbers aren't exactly inspiring, he was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League and he has plenty of time to develop. The stock isn't up from when he was drafted, but it's not really down either; we're still in wait-and-see mode, and the teenage outfielder still has the ceiling of a 30 homer bat with the ability to get on base and steal a few bags. Starting back at the top of the minors, 25 year olds Chris Shaw and Aramis Garcia, as well as 23 year old Abiatal Avelino, are looking to make an impact soon. Shaw probably has the best chance of the three, coming off a year where he slashed .259/.308/.505 with 24 home runs and a 144/21 strikeout to walk ratio across 101 games for AAA Sacramento. He didn't fare as well in 22 major league games (1 HR, .185/.274/.278), with big power and big strikeout concerns standing out. The Boston College product is limited defensively to the outfield and first base, so he'll have to make contact to stick in the majors, but he does have the upside of a 30 homer bat in the Lucas Duda or Matt Adams mold. Garcia, meanwhile, has been a prospect for a long time (he turns 26 in January) and as a catcher with Buster Posey currently manning the position and with Joey Bart breathing down his neck, Garcia's window of opportunity is fairly limited. In 2018, he slashed .233/.285/.381 with eleven home runs and an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between AA Richmond and Sacramento, then hit .286/.308/.492 with four home runs in a 19 game MLB debut. He's pretty much decent across the board, with no glaring weaknesses but no real strengths either; he has some pop, can usually make contact, and is good enough behind the plate, but it all amounts more to a back-up profile than a starting one. Avelino came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade and had a nice year, slashing .283/.329/.438 with 15 home runs between AA and AAA, but that power surge is looking more like a mirage and he looks like a utility infielder. Slightly farther down into the minors, 23 year old Heath Quinn and 20 year olds Jacob Gonzalez and Sandro Fabian lead the mid-minors pack behind Ramos. Quinn is older and has been a regular producer, fairing well in his second run at the High A California League by slashing .300/.376/.485 with 14 home runs and a 98/42 strikeout to walk ratio in 96 games. I like the power and I think he makes enough contact to where he could be a productive major league bat, but he has some tweener risk and could end up a fourth outfielder. Gonzalez too is a power hitter, though he struggles to make contact and slashed .227/.296/.331 with eight home runs at Class A Augusta this year. The power is for real and he probably has more of it than Quinn, but he gets to it much less often and I think he could end up being a bust. Fabian, however, has a different profile. His .200/.260/.325 slash line with ten home runs and a 107/26 strikeout to walk ratio was extremely underwhelming in the High A California League, but he did play the whole season at just 20 years old and was fairly young for the level. He's a good defender in the outfield who has spent his whole minor league career playing up with guys older than him, and the Giants are just waiting for that bat to pick up. I think his long term outlook is probably fairly similar to Quinn's with less power and better defense, but he'll just take a different road to get there as a young kid playing up with older players rather than an older prospect hitting well against younger competition. Lastly, 21 year old David Villar, 17 year old Marco Luciano, and 18 year old Alexander Canario round out the interesting prospects in the low minors. Villar, just drafted out of USF in the eleventh round in 2018, is off to a hot start for his pro career by slashing .282/.342/.535 with 13 home runs and a 72/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between complex ball and Short Season Salem-Keizer. He has big power but his approach may be exploited as he moves up in the minors, and his bat will probably end up somewhere between Aramis Garcia and Chris Shaw in a couple of years. He's not considered a top prospect but I think he's one to watch. Luciano and Canario are the farthest off from the majors, with Canario having played just 111 pro games, all in complex ball (slashing .275/.376/.438 with 11 HR and 26 SB) and Luciano yet to step on the pro diamond. Both have very high ceilings and could honestly be All Stars. Luciano generates his power from a wiry 6'2" frame and plenty of loft in his swing, though I can see contact being a potential concern once he gets into games. Meanwhile, Canario has less present power but more bat speed, and I think altering his swing mechanics to give him more loft and to get him more balanced at the plate can help him take off; he has already shown strong plate discipline against complex ball competition. Luciano is currently a shortstop but is more likely a third baseman in the future, while Canario is a speedy center fielder.
Arms We Could See in 2019: Shaun Anderson, Logan Webb, Tyler Beede, Garrett Williams, and Ray Black
The Giants do a good job of converting upper-minors pitching into useable major league arms, but recently they've struggled to convert them into much more than just that: useable (we'll see what happens with Dereck Rodriguez). Here is the next wave, and while all have breakthrough potential, they probably will end up along the lines of the current crop of recently graduated arms, which includes Andrew Suarez, Chris Stratton, Steven Okert, and Reyes Moronta in addition to Rodriguez. 24 year old Shaun Anderson, acquired from Boston in the Eduardo Nunez deal, has since established himself as the system's top pitching prospect with a solid 2018. In 25 games (24 starts) between AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the 6'4" righty went 8-7 with a 3.69 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 127/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 141.1 innings, adapting well to the upper minors by showing strong command of his pretty good stuff. He looks like a back-end starter right now, but he has the best chance on this list to be the first home-grown impact pitcher for the Giants since Hunter Strickland came up in 2014, and the first impact starter since Madison Bumgarner in 2009. 21 year old Logan Webb quietly had a very good season in 2018, going 2-5 with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 100/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings between High A San Jose and Richmond. The 6'2" righty is extremely raw after missing significant time with injuries, but his mid 90's fastball got him all the way up to AA this year at the age of 21 despite the missed time. The rest of his game needs significant work, but the Giants hope his 2018 breakthrough will lead to development in those areas. If not, he profiles as a middle reliever, but he's one to watch in 2019. 25 year old Tyler Beede was a first round pick (14th overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2014, and after rocketing up to AA by 2015 and pitching well at the level in 2016, he has stalled ever since. In 2018, he was 4-9 with a 6.64 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and an 81/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings between Sacramento and rehab work, showing explosive stuff at times and flattening out at others. His fastball can sit anywhere in the 90's and the quality of his offspeeds are just as inconsistent, but his command has been getting worse. The Giants shifted him to the bullpen mid-season but the results weren't much better, and the clock is ticking; he'll be 26 in May. 24 year old Garrett Williams has been extremely inconsistent throughout his career, missing significant time with injuries while at Oklahoma State and subsequently struggling with command in the minors. He had a 2.32 ERA and a 96/35 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose in 2017, but limped to a 6.06 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP, and a 73/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.2 innings with Richmond this season. He has an explosive fastball/curveball combination that gets plenty of swings and misses, but he can't seem to throw strikes. The 6'1" lefty was converted to relief midway through the season, where like Beede he still didn't find success, and I think he's better suited there. I still like Williams and think he could take a step forward and become a useful reliever in the majors, especially given how volatile he has been throughout his career; 2018 could end up being the aberration rather than 2017. Lastly, 28 year old Ray Black is an interesting one, as you would expect from a 28 year old that I still choose to write about. Injuries have kept him off the mound for long periods of time, and he didn't even through his first professional pitch until he was almost 24. Now, he is armed with an exceptional fastball that sits in the upper 90's and has hit 104 in the past, leading to a 2.52 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 66/12 strikeout to walk ratio over just 35.2 innings between Richmond and Sacramento; that's a 48.5% strikeout rate. He had a 6.17 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 33/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings in the majors (34.7% strikeout rate), and he profiles as an extremely interesting middle reliever.
Projection Arms: Melvin Adon, Sean Hjelle, Juan De Paula, Seth Corry, Gregory Santos, and Jake Wong
Again, there is not much depth, but the Giants do have a couple of interesting arms down lower on the farm. 24 year old Melvin Adon, who won't reach the majors in 2019 and therefore doesn't quite fit on the previous list, is the most advanced in this section. He ran into some trouble with High A San Jose in 2018, going 2-6 with a 5.03 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 79/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings, but he has recently been strong in the Arizona Fall League. The Giants have tried to develop him as a starter, but after 2018 he looks more like a power reliever with an upper 90's fastball and a good slider. 21 year old Sean Hjelle, drafted in the second round (45th overall) out of Kentucky in 2018, might be the safest bet in this whole group, finishing his pro debut with a 5.06 ERA but a nice 22/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings at Short Season Salem-Keizer. At 6'11", he is a massive string bean that comes at hitters on a steep downhill plane with a low 90's fastball and a good curveball, with his overall game plan resembling Chris Young more than it does Randy Johnson. He looks like a very tall back-end starter at this point but could move quickly. 21 year old Juan De Paula came over from the Yankees in the Andrew McCutchen deal, and while the Yankees moved him along slowly, the Giants might choose to speed that up. De Paula posted a 1.72 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP with a 55/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings between the Yankees' Short Season affiliate and one very good start with the Giants' Class A Augusta. He comes with high risk as a low minors pitcher who has never cracked 80 innings in a season, but there is a lot of upside to unlock and he might have the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Giants' system. Look for anything from an A-ball flameout to an impact starter. 20 year old Seth Corry might be in a similar spot to De Paula, though he's a lefty with less of a track record. Corry was sharp in 38 innings in complex ball (2.61 ERA, 42/17 K/BB) but struggled in 19.2 innings in Short Season ball (5.49 ERA, 17/15 K/BB). His best attribute is an explosive curveball, but he needs to throw more strikes and has a lot of development to go through. I'd argue that his ceiling and floor are both slightly lower than that of De Paula. Meanwhile, 19 year old Gregory Santos spent the whole season in Short Season ball and put up a 4.53 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 46/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 49.2 innings. He has a good combination of stuff and control for his age, but he just needs to learn to put it together. He keeps the ball on the ground remarkably well, and he could move up as a back-end starter. Lastly, 22 year old Jake Wong was drafted after Hjelle in the third round in 2018 (80th overall), then posted a 2.30 ERA and a 27/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.1 Short Season innings in his debut. The initial returns are promising for Wong, though I ultimately think he ends up in the bullpen with an underwhelming stuff/command package for his age.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Reviewing the Boston Red Sox Farm System
A few years ago, the Red Sox were loaded with guys like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, and Anderson Espinoza, but trades and graduations mean none of them are left in the system. At this point, it's pretty barren and lacks impact prospects, though they do have a nice collection of power bats as well as some live arms with upside. Most of the pitching talent, save for Jay Groome, is closer to the big leagues while the bottom of the system lacks much in terms of marketable arms.
Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, Short Season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox
Power Bats: 3B Michael Chavis, 3B Bobby Dalbec, 1B Josh Ockimey, 1B Triston Casas, OF Nick Decker, 3B Nick Northcut, 3B Danny Diaz, and C Roldani Baldwin
As will be the theme with this farm system, no one player stands out in this group. All of these players come with significant power upside but also struggle with contact, and with Rafael Devers holding down third base, they'll likely all have to compete for the first base job. 23 year old Michael Chavis is closest to the majors, having bounced back from a PED suspension to slash .298/.381/.538 with nine home runs in 46 games between short season ball, AA Portland, and AAA Pawtucket. The fact that he could still slug .538 even after the suspension was a big positive for his prospect stock, and while his plate discipline is improving, he has more work to do if he wants to catch up to major league pitching. There is a good chance he sees the majors in 2019. Right behind him is 23 year old Bobby Dalbec, who strikes out a ton but who seems to defy the odds and continue producing with every promotion. This year, he slashed .257/.361/.558 between High A Salem and AA Portland and was among the minor league leaders with 32 home runs (among 70 extra base hits), and while he had a nice 12.2% walk rate, his strikeout rate was a troubling 32.4%. It seems that should cause problems at AA and AAA, but he fared well enough in his taste of AA this year from a production standpoint (.261/.323/.514, 37.1% K rate) that one could envision an Aaron Judge-lite scenario where he continues to produce even with mounting strikeout totals up the ladder, though probably not at Judge's levels. A third 23 year old, Josh Ockimey, is behind those two on the depth chart and looks more like a platoon bat, having slashed .245/.356/.455 with 20 home runs between Portland and Pawtucket this season. He also strikes out a lot, but he walks a ton and shouldn't be overlooked. Lower down in the minors, 18 year old Triston Casas leads the pack of young power hitters. The 2018 first round draft pick (26th overall) out of a south Florida high school had a season ending thumb injury in just his second pro game, but his long swing produces massive power paralleled only by Dalbec in this system. I have concerns about the length of his swing, but if he can keep it under control and keep the barrel in the zone for a long enough portion of it, his power/patience combination could make him the system's top prospect next year. The swing is just really long and that worries me. Following Casas in the draft were a pair of high school Nicks, 19 year olds Nick Decker and Nick Northcut. Decker, a second round pick (64th overall) out of southern New Jersey, has a similar profile to Casas, while Northcut, an eleventh rounder out of the Cincinnati area who fell due to signability, hits a little differently. Decker has a long swing like Casas, though he isn't as big and doesn't generate quite as much power. Northcut is also smaller but generates his power through bat speed, and while his swing isn't quite as long, he still struggles with contact. Personally, I like Northcut better than Decker as a prospect. 17 year old Danny Diaz slashed .238/.283/.476 in complex ball in the Dominican this year, showing big power with big contact concerns (notice a trend?). He's a long, long way off, but his big power potential gives him a high ceiling. Lastly, 22 year old catcher Roldani Baldwin followed up a great 2017 (14 HR, .274/.310/.489 at Class A Greenville) with a disappointing 2018 (7 HR, .233/.282/.371 at High A Salem), struggling to do much damage against more advanced pitching. There is still some upside in the bat because the power is there, but unfortunately his defense needs work and he may need to move to first base, which would not be ideal for his bat.
High Upside Pitchers: Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, and Durbin Feltman
While this group of pitchers is not particularly deep, all five of these pitchers have the potential to take a step forward and become frontline or mid rotation starters (or a closer in Feltman's case). Of course, they also come with high risk, and with only five, the Sox will likely only get one or two impact pitchers out of the group. The highest upside belongs to 6'6", 20 year old lefty Jay Groome. Groome had a chance to go first overall in the 2016 draft, but character questions and signability problems dropped him to the Red Sox at twelfth. He then struggled at Class A Greenville in 2017 (6.70 ERA, 58/25 K/BB in 44.1 IP) before sitting out all of 2018 with forearm issues and then May Tommy John surgery, and he'll miss a big chunk of 2019 with that surgery as well. Groome still has all the makings of a future ace with great stuff and a big frame, but he struggles to control it and hasn't stayed healthy long enough to fix that control. 19 year old Bryan Mata, meanwhile, was spent the year up at High A Salem and managed a 3.50 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 61/58 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a great changeup, but he struggles with control and misses the zone quite a bit. The skinny 6'3" righty is way ahead of the development curve and has plenty of time to get it right, and he could be a #2 starter when it's all said and done if he can start throwing strikes over the next few years. 21 year old Darwinzon Hernandez, meanwhile, spent most of the year at Salem and threw a few innings at AA Portland at the end, finishing with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 134/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 innings. The big lefty is older than Mata but throws a little harder, though he does struggle with command. If he can get that command down, he can be a mid-rotation starter, but Mata's upside is of course higher. 22 year old Tanner Houck performed reasonably for Salem this year, posting a 4.24 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 111/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings. The 6'5" righty comes from from a funky three quarters arm slot, and while his slider is improving, he still has risk of becoming a reliever. A righty with a similar delivery that is covered in the next section, Mike Shawaryn, had a breakout year in the Sox system this year and Boston will hope Houck can take a similar step forward. He's not necessarily behind the age curve, but 2018 makes his first round selection (24th overall) in 2017 look a little bit suspect. Lastly, 21 year old Durbin Feltman is purely a relief prospect, but the 2018 draftee out of TCU could be in the majors by 2019. He tore up the minors in his pro debut, posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings across three levels, getting as high as Salem. His high effort delivery gives him a fastball that can hit 99 and a devastating slider, but also leads to control problems and limits him to the bullpen. Look for him in the Boston 'pen at some point next year.
Polished Arms: Mike Shawaryn, Kutter Crawford, Alex Scherff, Denyi Reyes, Jake Thompson, and Travis Lakins
While this group of pitchers doesn't have the upside, I think at least one will become a serviceable starting pitcher. I doubt they get more than two from this group (Lakins is a reliever anyways), because even though the upside isn't high with these guys, they don't have the floor generally associated with a team's top pitchability arms. That's just what happens when your system is thin like this. 24 year old Mike Shawaryn leads the pack as the best pitcher in this bunch, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket. The 6'2" righty is shorter than Tanner Houck, mentioned in the previous section, but has a similarly deceptive delivery that makes his stuff play up, and unlike Houck, he can control it well. While he lacks Houck's velocity, he has a great slider and looks like the better prospect at this point. He has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter and likely settles in as a #3 or a #4. A little down the depth chart is 22 year old Kutter Crawford, who finished up 2018 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 157/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. While the numbers were impressive and he has a deep arsenal of useable pitches, most of his stuff grades out as average and without the deception or command to make it play up, I don't see him as ending up as much more than a #5 starter. Even farther down is 20 year old Alex Scherff, a 6'3" righty who posted a 4.76 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings between Greenville and a few innings down at the complex level. He has better stuff than Crawford and therefore higher upside, though he needs to improve his curveball and his control is not as advanced as Crawford's. He could be as good as a #3 or #4 starter, but the risk is high. 22 year old Denyi Reyes is an interesting case. Over his minor league career, he is 32-7 with a 2.12 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 286/33 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2018, he went 12-5 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 145/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 155.2 innings between Greenville and Salem, using his command rather than his stuff to keep opponents off balance. Because his stuff grades out as just average, we need to see him above A ball to really know what he is capable of, but he can't do much better statistically than how he has already done. If he continues to hit the corners consistently and keep hitters off balance in the upper minors, that could translate into being a #4 or #5 starter in the majors. 24 year old Jake Thompson hasn't had nearly as much success in pro ball as he did at Oregon State, posting a 5.30 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 96/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings for Salem this year. He had a good combination of stuff and pitchability coming into the minors, but the stuff has backed up and his command has been so-so. While he has a deep arsenal, nothing really grades out as above average, and unlike Reyes he doesn't have the command to make up for it. He was so good in college that you can't give up just yet, but the early returns are not encouraging. Lastly, 24 year old Travis Lakins is a relief prospect who posted a 2.32 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 57/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings between Portland and Pawtucket this year. He's a fastball/cutter guy that can blow pitches by opponents, but while he has improved his command, he lacks a true breaking ball and the velocity can play down due to a lack of contrast. He looks like a middle reliever at this point, albeit one who could make the Opening Day roster.
Non-Power Hitters: SS C.J. Chatham, OF Cole Brannen, SS Antoni Flores, and 3B Brandon Howlett
As you can tell, the Red Sox have invested more heavily in power hitters than contact/speed oriented guys, something I tend to agree with. However, it's a testament to the lack of depth in this organization that there are really only four viable offensive prospects who have skills other than hitting for power, and none of these guys are really that good. 23 year old C.J. Chatham leads the pack, coming off a season where he slashed .314/.350/.389 with three home runs and an 84/26 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. He plays good defense at shortstop, which takes pressure off the bat, but while he's great at making contact, he doesn't do much else. The walk rate is low and there's virtually no power, so he looks like a utility guy at best. 20 year old Cole Brannen has gotten absolutely nothing going at the plate since being drafted in the second round (63rd overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2017, slashing just .169/.261/.205 with 21 stolen bases and a 90/30 strikeout to walk ratio between short season ball and Greenville this year. He's fast and can draw a walk, but the bat is just non-existent and something needs to dramatically change if he wants to even make it halfway up to the majors. 18 year old Antoni Flores has the highest ceiling in this section, coming off a pro debut where he slashed .340/.435/.528 with a home run and an 8/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in complex ball. It's best to avoid drawing conclusions from a small sample size in the low minors like that, but he has done everything asked of him so far and could develop into a usable shortstop down the line, though risk is obviously high. Lastly, 19 year old Brandon Howlett was just drafted out of a central Florida high school, and he immediately slashed .289/.402/.513 with six home runs and a nice 41/28 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and a few games in short season ball. There were concerns about his contact when he was drafted, but his solid approach has made up for them and so far, he has impressed enough to earn some attention in this otherwise barren farm system. He has a long way to go but could be a sleeper to develop into a usable third baseman.
Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, Short Season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox
Power Bats: 3B Michael Chavis, 3B Bobby Dalbec, 1B Josh Ockimey, 1B Triston Casas, OF Nick Decker, 3B Nick Northcut, 3B Danny Diaz, and C Roldani Baldwin
As will be the theme with this farm system, no one player stands out in this group. All of these players come with significant power upside but also struggle with contact, and with Rafael Devers holding down third base, they'll likely all have to compete for the first base job. 23 year old Michael Chavis is closest to the majors, having bounced back from a PED suspension to slash .298/.381/.538 with nine home runs in 46 games between short season ball, AA Portland, and AAA Pawtucket. The fact that he could still slug .538 even after the suspension was a big positive for his prospect stock, and while his plate discipline is improving, he has more work to do if he wants to catch up to major league pitching. There is a good chance he sees the majors in 2019. Right behind him is 23 year old Bobby Dalbec, who strikes out a ton but who seems to defy the odds and continue producing with every promotion. This year, he slashed .257/.361/.558 between High A Salem and AA Portland and was among the minor league leaders with 32 home runs (among 70 extra base hits), and while he had a nice 12.2% walk rate, his strikeout rate was a troubling 32.4%. It seems that should cause problems at AA and AAA, but he fared well enough in his taste of AA this year from a production standpoint (.261/.323/.514, 37.1% K rate) that one could envision an Aaron Judge-lite scenario where he continues to produce even with mounting strikeout totals up the ladder, though probably not at Judge's levels. A third 23 year old, Josh Ockimey, is behind those two on the depth chart and looks more like a platoon bat, having slashed .245/.356/.455 with 20 home runs between Portland and Pawtucket this season. He also strikes out a lot, but he walks a ton and shouldn't be overlooked. Lower down in the minors, 18 year old Triston Casas leads the pack of young power hitters. The 2018 first round draft pick (26th overall) out of a south Florida high school had a season ending thumb injury in just his second pro game, but his long swing produces massive power paralleled only by Dalbec in this system. I have concerns about the length of his swing, but if he can keep it under control and keep the barrel in the zone for a long enough portion of it, his power/patience combination could make him the system's top prospect next year. The swing is just really long and that worries me. Following Casas in the draft were a pair of high school Nicks, 19 year olds Nick Decker and Nick Northcut. Decker, a second round pick (64th overall) out of southern New Jersey, has a similar profile to Casas, while Northcut, an eleventh rounder out of the Cincinnati area who fell due to signability, hits a little differently. Decker has a long swing like Casas, though he isn't as big and doesn't generate quite as much power. Northcut is also smaller but generates his power through bat speed, and while his swing isn't quite as long, he still struggles with contact. Personally, I like Northcut better than Decker as a prospect. 17 year old Danny Diaz slashed .238/.283/.476 in complex ball in the Dominican this year, showing big power with big contact concerns (notice a trend?). He's a long, long way off, but his big power potential gives him a high ceiling. Lastly, 22 year old catcher Roldani Baldwin followed up a great 2017 (14 HR, .274/.310/.489 at Class A Greenville) with a disappointing 2018 (7 HR, .233/.282/.371 at High A Salem), struggling to do much damage against more advanced pitching. There is still some upside in the bat because the power is there, but unfortunately his defense needs work and he may need to move to first base, which would not be ideal for his bat.
High Upside Pitchers: Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, and Durbin Feltman
While this group of pitchers is not particularly deep, all five of these pitchers have the potential to take a step forward and become frontline or mid rotation starters (or a closer in Feltman's case). Of course, they also come with high risk, and with only five, the Sox will likely only get one or two impact pitchers out of the group. The highest upside belongs to 6'6", 20 year old lefty Jay Groome. Groome had a chance to go first overall in the 2016 draft, but character questions and signability problems dropped him to the Red Sox at twelfth. He then struggled at Class A Greenville in 2017 (6.70 ERA, 58/25 K/BB in 44.1 IP) before sitting out all of 2018 with forearm issues and then May Tommy John surgery, and he'll miss a big chunk of 2019 with that surgery as well. Groome still has all the makings of a future ace with great stuff and a big frame, but he struggles to control it and hasn't stayed healthy long enough to fix that control. 19 year old Bryan Mata, meanwhile, was spent the year up at High A Salem and managed a 3.50 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 61/58 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a great changeup, but he struggles with control and misses the zone quite a bit. The skinny 6'3" righty is way ahead of the development curve and has plenty of time to get it right, and he could be a #2 starter when it's all said and done if he can start throwing strikes over the next few years. 21 year old Darwinzon Hernandez, meanwhile, spent most of the year at Salem and threw a few innings at AA Portland at the end, finishing with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 134/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 innings. The big lefty is older than Mata but throws a little harder, though he does struggle with command. If he can get that command down, he can be a mid-rotation starter, but Mata's upside is of course higher. 22 year old Tanner Houck performed reasonably for Salem this year, posting a 4.24 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 111/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings. The 6'5" righty comes from from a funky three quarters arm slot, and while his slider is improving, he still has risk of becoming a reliever. A righty with a similar delivery that is covered in the next section, Mike Shawaryn, had a breakout year in the Sox system this year and Boston will hope Houck can take a similar step forward. He's not necessarily behind the age curve, but 2018 makes his first round selection (24th overall) in 2017 look a little bit suspect. Lastly, 21 year old Durbin Feltman is purely a relief prospect, but the 2018 draftee out of TCU could be in the majors by 2019. He tore up the minors in his pro debut, posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings across three levels, getting as high as Salem. His high effort delivery gives him a fastball that can hit 99 and a devastating slider, but also leads to control problems and limits him to the bullpen. Look for him in the Boston 'pen at some point next year.
Polished Arms: Mike Shawaryn, Kutter Crawford, Alex Scherff, Denyi Reyes, Jake Thompson, and Travis Lakins
While this group of pitchers doesn't have the upside, I think at least one will become a serviceable starting pitcher. I doubt they get more than two from this group (Lakins is a reliever anyways), because even though the upside isn't high with these guys, they don't have the floor generally associated with a team's top pitchability arms. That's just what happens when your system is thin like this. 24 year old Mike Shawaryn leads the pack as the best pitcher in this bunch, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket. The 6'2" righty is shorter than Tanner Houck, mentioned in the previous section, but has a similarly deceptive delivery that makes his stuff play up, and unlike Houck, he can control it well. While he lacks Houck's velocity, he has a great slider and looks like the better prospect at this point. He has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter and likely settles in as a #3 or a #4. A little down the depth chart is 22 year old Kutter Crawford, who finished up 2018 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 157/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. While the numbers were impressive and he has a deep arsenal of useable pitches, most of his stuff grades out as average and without the deception or command to make it play up, I don't see him as ending up as much more than a #5 starter. Even farther down is 20 year old Alex Scherff, a 6'3" righty who posted a 4.76 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings between Greenville and a few innings down at the complex level. He has better stuff than Crawford and therefore higher upside, though he needs to improve his curveball and his control is not as advanced as Crawford's. He could be as good as a #3 or #4 starter, but the risk is high. 22 year old Denyi Reyes is an interesting case. Over his minor league career, he is 32-7 with a 2.12 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 286/33 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2018, he went 12-5 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 145/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 155.2 innings between Greenville and Salem, using his command rather than his stuff to keep opponents off balance. Because his stuff grades out as just average, we need to see him above A ball to really know what he is capable of, but he can't do much better statistically than how he has already done. If he continues to hit the corners consistently and keep hitters off balance in the upper minors, that could translate into being a #4 or #5 starter in the majors. 24 year old Jake Thompson hasn't had nearly as much success in pro ball as he did at Oregon State, posting a 5.30 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 96/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings for Salem this year. He had a good combination of stuff and pitchability coming into the minors, but the stuff has backed up and his command has been so-so. While he has a deep arsenal, nothing really grades out as above average, and unlike Reyes he doesn't have the command to make up for it. He was so good in college that you can't give up just yet, but the early returns are not encouraging. Lastly, 24 year old Travis Lakins is a relief prospect who posted a 2.32 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 57/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings between Portland and Pawtucket this year. He's a fastball/cutter guy that can blow pitches by opponents, but while he has improved his command, he lacks a true breaking ball and the velocity can play down due to a lack of contrast. He looks like a middle reliever at this point, albeit one who could make the Opening Day roster.
Non-Power Hitters: SS C.J. Chatham, OF Cole Brannen, SS Antoni Flores, and 3B Brandon Howlett
As you can tell, the Red Sox have invested more heavily in power hitters than contact/speed oriented guys, something I tend to agree with. However, it's a testament to the lack of depth in this organization that there are really only four viable offensive prospects who have skills other than hitting for power, and none of these guys are really that good. 23 year old C.J. Chatham leads the pack, coming off a season where he slashed .314/.350/.389 with three home runs and an 84/26 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. He plays good defense at shortstop, which takes pressure off the bat, but while he's great at making contact, he doesn't do much else. The walk rate is low and there's virtually no power, so he looks like a utility guy at best. 20 year old Cole Brannen has gotten absolutely nothing going at the plate since being drafted in the second round (63rd overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2017, slashing just .169/.261/.205 with 21 stolen bases and a 90/30 strikeout to walk ratio between short season ball and Greenville this year. He's fast and can draw a walk, but the bat is just non-existent and something needs to dramatically change if he wants to even make it halfway up to the majors. 18 year old Antoni Flores has the highest ceiling in this section, coming off a pro debut where he slashed .340/.435/.528 with a home run and an 8/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in complex ball. It's best to avoid drawing conclusions from a small sample size in the low minors like that, but he has done everything asked of him so far and could develop into a usable shortstop down the line, though risk is obviously high. Lastly, 19 year old Brandon Howlett was just drafted out of a central Florida high school, and he immediately slashed .289/.402/.513 with six home runs and a nice 41/28 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and a few games in short season ball. There were concerns about his contact when he was drafted, but his solid approach has made up for them and so far, he has impressed enough to earn some attention in this otherwise barren farm system. He has a long way to go but could be a sleeper to develop into a usable third baseman.
Friday, November 9, 2018
Reviewing the Miami Marlins Farm System
The Marlins' system is better than it was just a year ago, but it still has a long, long way to go. Even with the trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Kyle Barraclough, it's still fairly empty with no true impact prospects or headliners. Signing Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. were big steps in the right direction, but there is still just not much going on at all here. Even the team's top prospect heading into the season, Lewis Brinson, had a disastrous 2018 and slashed just .199/.240/.338 with eleven home runs in a season where he was supposed to challenge for the Rookie of the Year Award. The Marlins may (and should) trade J.T. Realmuto over the offseason and that will bring back a huge return, but for now, the system is just about empty. For now, the system is slightly more pitching heavy with more high-upside prospects overall than safe bets. One interesting note is that the Marlins aggressively pushed their three highest high school draft picks in 2018, Connor Scott, Osiris Johnson, and Will Banfield, all the way up to Class A Greensboro with mixed results.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers*, Short Season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*Class A Affiliate will move from Greensboro, NC to Clinton, IA in 2019
Toolsy Outfielders: Victor Victor Mesa, Monte Harrison, Connor Scott, Tristan Pompey, Thomas Jones, Brian Miller, and Austin Dean
Though the system is not deep, perhaps the Marlins' best thing the system has going for it is that there are quite a few outfielders with star potential, even if those high ceilings are coupled with high bust potential. 22 year old Cuban import Victor Victor Mesa leads the pack, having signed for a huge $5.25 million bonus in October. He has an excellent glove and will be very valuable in center field, so it will be on his bat to catch up. Currently, he is a solid contact hitter who can get on base, and while he probably won't develop much power with his 5'9" frame, he has a ceiling as a leadoff hitter if he hits enough. His floor is among the highest in the system, and since he hasn't actually had an at bat in the minor leagues yet, that's saying something about the Marlins' farm sytem. 23 year old Monte Harrison came over in the Christian Yelich trade, and his ceiling and floor are exceptionally far apart for a hitter so far into his career. After cracking 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases in A ball last year, Harrison hit 19 more and stole 28 more in 2018 while slashing .240/.316/.399 for AA Jacksonville. Power/speed combinations like Harrison's are hard to come by and extremely valuable, but Harrison comes with one big problem; he strikes out way too much, including 36.9% of the time in 2018. If he's getting fooled this badly by AA pitching, he'll only struggle more with MLB pitching, and serious approach adjustments are necessary for him to succeed at the highest level. If he makes those adjustments, then he could be a perennial 20-20 player in the majors. 19 year old Connor Scott is farther away, having just been drafted in the first round (13th overall) out of a Tampa high school in 2018. Scott slashed .218/.309/.296 with a home run and nine stolen bases in 50 games between the complex ball and an aggressive assignment to Class A Greensboro, but those numbers don't show off his skills. Despite an unorthodox swing, the long and lanky Scott shows speed and feel for the barrel, with his wiry 6'4" frame, power could come too, and when that's combined with his good outfield defense and good arm, he has the potential to be a five tool player. Risk is always high with high school draftees, but Scott's ceiling might be the highest in the system, above even Harrison. 21 year old Tristan Pompey, the younger brother of Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey, was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Kentucky this year. Despite concerns about his plate discipline and swing mechanics, Pompey slashed a very impressive .299/.408/.397 with three home runs and ten stolen bases over 52 games across three levels in his pro debut, reaching as high as High A Jupiter. Especially surprising was his plate discipline, as his 47/32 strikeout to walk ratio was very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see how that plate discipline holds up over a full season, but the early returns are good for Pompey and he could be a productive major league hitter sooner than expected. 20 year old Thomas Jones was very raw when he was drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of a South Carolina high school in 2016, and so far, the Marlins have not been able to bring his potential out of him. Playing all of 2018 at Greensboro, he slashed .222/.277/.343 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing some of that blazing speed that got him drafted but struggling to do much of anything with the bat. His plate discipline currently plagues him (140/25 K/BB) and there isn't much sock in the bat, so even at 20 years old, he's running out of time to prove he can handle pro pitching. The Marlins hope 2019, his age-21 season, will be the year where he finally starts to tap into what scouts saw back in 2016. Lastly, 23 year old Brian Miller and 25 year old Austin Dean don't quite fit into the "toolsy" category, but they'll get a writeup here anyways. Both are high-floor hitters without much projection left, with Miller showing no power but good plate discipline and speed and Dean showing a productive bat. Miller slashed .295/.338/.355 with 40 stolen bases between Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this year, showing fourth outfielder potential, while Dean slashed and eye-popping .345/.410/.511 with 12 home runs and a nice 56/39 strikeout to walk ratio between Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, showing platoon/pinch hitter potential.
The Infielders: 2B Isan Diaz, SS Jose Devers, SS Osiris Johnson, 3B Joe Dunand, 3B James Nelson, and C Will Banfield
While there is some depth when it comes to high ceiling outfield prospects, this system really lacks in potential impact infielders, and the Marlins are unlikely to get any stars out of this group. 22 year old Isan Diaz leads the pack after having been acquired from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade last year, and like Monte Harrison, a fellow piece in the Yelich trade, there is a large gap between what Diaz can do and what he is doing. He split 2018 between AA Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, slashing a respectable .245/.365/.418 at the former but only .204/.281/.358 at the latter. He generates tons of power from a big, whippy swing, but he has swing and miss issues that keep his production down. However, as a patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks, and that gives him an enviable power/patient combination. If he can cut down those strikeouts and make better contact on pitches in the zone, he could be the Marlins' next Dan Uggla, but if he can't make those adjustments, he might better resemble late-career Uggla. 18 year old Jose Devers, who came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, was one of the youngest players in the Class A South Atlantic League this year, and his player profile is basically opposite to Diaz's. While Diaz's swing gives him all or nothing, Devers is a contact hitter with a very advanced approach for his age, enabling him to slash .272/.313/.330 against much older competition this year. He's also a very good defender at shortstop, so the only hole in his game for now is power. The skinny six footer has none of it for now, and he likely will never develop much, so he'll have to continue to line enough balls to the gaps to stay relevant. Time is on his side as he will play all of 2019 at 19 years old, and the big thing for him will just be adding strength. While Devers may be set to turn 19, 18 year old Osiris Johnson just had his birthday and played all of 2018 at just 17 years old. Johnson was drafted in the second round (53rd overall) out of an Oakland area high school this year, and while he hit well in complex ball (.301/.333/.447), he struggled to catch up to advanced Class A pitching upon his extremely aggressive promotion to Greensboro (.188/.205/.294). Johnson is very toolsy and generates power from a big swing, but that big swing also misses a lot, and with little patience, Class A pitchers were able to easily find holes in his approach this year. Set to play the whole 2019 season at 18 years old, he could spend years working on that approach and still be a young prospect, so he just has to do it. There's bust potential here, but Johnson has some of the higher upside in this section. 23 year old Joe Dunand, out of NC State, hit moderately well at High A Jupiter this year (.263/.326/.391) but saw his bat stall at Jacksonville (.212/.276/.369). With 14 total home runs on the year, he shows good power and some feel for the strike zone, but overall I don't think it adds up to a starting profile. His defense is very good at third base, and I can see him being power hitting utility infielder in the future. 21 year old James Nelson was riding high off a big 2017 at Greensboro (7 HR, .309/.354/.456) when 2018 went about as poorly as possible at Jupiter (2 HR, .211/.262/.280). He missed time to injury and overall just couldn't get anything going with the bat, so he'll hope to turn it back around in 2019 with a clean bill of health and a broad set of tools. Lastly, 18 year old catcher Will Banfield was a competitive balance pick (69th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school this year, and he's an interesting case. While he is great behind the plate with an excellent arm, his bat has held him back and some scouts worry if he'll ever be able to catch up to high level pitching. There is power in that bat, but the hit tool just isn't there yet. Learning to recognize breaking balls and catch up to velocity could make Banfield a starting catcher, but failure to do so will keep him from seeing the big leagues.
Electric Arms: Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Guzman, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Colton Hock, Tommy Eveld, and Tyler Kolek
Fortunately, the system isn't completely devoid of pitching talent like it used to be, and the Marlins do have a couple of hard throwers who could develop into more, though none have taken the step from "maybe can-be" to "potential ace" just yet. 23 year old Sandy Alcantara, who came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade, is the most advanced, but he also has been extremely enigmatic. He can hit 100 with his fastball and his slider and changeup have gotten better over the years, but he just doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect and that hurts his long term projection. In 2018, the skinny 6'4" righty went 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 96/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 innings, mostly at AAA New Orleans, but he struck out just 18% of his opponents along the way. He was moderately successful with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in a brief major league cup of coffee, but his 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings was far from ideal. At this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen. 22 year old Jorge Guzman came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, and though he can hit 103 (!) with his fastball, his 2018 season was somewhat of a disappointment as he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 101/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at High A Jupiter. His slider is coming along as well, but right now the two pitches aren't enough to overcome his mediocre command. Like Alcantara, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he could have Aroldis Chapman-esque velocity and ditch his changeup. Still, it's always exciting to have someone with a fastball that sits right around 100 as a starter. 20 year old Edward Cabrera, like the two above him, has not put it together yet but is making progress. The skinny, 6'4" righty posted a 4.22 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 93/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings at Class A Greensboro this year, which again is disappointing when his fastball can hit 100 and 101. His slider works well too, but his command wobbles and like Alcantara and Guzman, there is a lot he needs to work on and he needs to start striking batters out. 20 year old Trevor Rogers' pro debut didn't go as well as hoped in 2018, as he posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings for Greensboro this year. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, which is slower than the guys above, and his secondary stuff is still coming along, though he stands at a tall 6'6". The Marlins knew he would be a project when they drafted him in the first round (13th overall) out of a New Mexico high school in 2017, and a year and a half later, he's still a project. One positive from his 2018 season was the strikeout to walk ratio, as a 26% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate aren't half bad and should provide hope for a better 2019. 22 year old Colton Hock has been a bit disappointing so far in his career, with his 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 77/21 strikeout to walk ratio being fairly uninspiring in 91 innings against slightly younger competition at Greensboro in 2018. The 6'4" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curve, both of which he controls well, but it doesn't quite come together in an exciting starter package and he probably needs to move to the bullpen, where he pitched with Stanford. 24 year old Tommy Eveld is purely a bullpen prospect, having posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 61/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings between High A and AA. He should be in the majors in 2019 and could make an impact quickly. Lastly, we have our old friend, 22 year old Tyler Kolek, who isn't really a prospect anymore except for the fact that he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft with Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, and others still on the board. At the time, he threw over 100 miles per hour regularly and looked durable with a big, 6'5" frame, but injuries and poor command have ruined his pro career so far. Now, the fastball is down to the mid 90's, and without good secondaries or command, he's basically just organizational filler at this point. Too bad, really.
Polished Arms: Nick Neidert, Jordan Yamamoto, Braxton Garrett, Zac Gallen, Robert Dugger, Jeff Brigham, and Brady Puckett
Fortunately, the Marlins have enough polished arms in this section that they might be able to form a decent back of the rotation, and you could make the argument that this group of pitchers is better than the live arms discussed above. 21 year old Nick Neidert came over in the Dee Gordon trade and is the closest thing the Marlins have to a legitimate starting pitching prospect. In 26 starts at AA Jacksonville this year, the 6'1" righty went 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 154/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.2 innings, showing a good mix of stuff and command. His fastball and changeup generate weak contact, and while his lack of a good breaking ball limits his ceiling, he could be a #3 or #4 starter in Miami soon. 22 year old Jordan Yamamoto, who came over in the Christian Yelich trade, has flown under the radar a bit and I don't think he gets enough credit. In 13 starts between High A Jupiter, AA Jacksonville, and complex level rehab work, he went 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.2 innings, showing good command of a deceptive fastball and a very good curveball. While he needs to prove he can stay healthy, hitters have not been able to figure him out, and he posted a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings with Jacksonville against his most advanced opponents. He looks like a back-end starter for now but don't underestimate him. 21 year old Braxton Garrett missed most of 2017 and all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery after being drafted seventh overall in 2016, but once he's healthy, he has the highest ceiling in this group. Pre-surgery, he threw a low 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a good changeup, all of which he could control, which would seemingly give him a great combination of ceiling of floor if he were healthy. However, he comes with a lot of risk considering we just don't know what his stuff will look like so long after surgery, and because he turned 21 in August, he's not young as far as "guys who have made four starts since high school" go. 23 year old Zac Gallen, 23 year old Robert Dugger, and 26 year old Jeff Brigham are three guys who could contribute to the back of the rotation soon. Gallen is probably the best of the three, having posted a 3.65 ERA and a 136/48 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA New Orleans this year, though he does have problems with his average stuff getting hit too hard too often. Dugger, meanwhile, had a 3.40 ERA and a 141/43 strikeout to walk ratio between Jupiter and Jacksonville, and while he's behind Gallen on the depth chart, he has a similar career outlook. Brigham is older but posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings between Jacksonville, New Orleans, and complex ball rehab work, and while he throws mid 90's, his secondary stuff does need some work, and at 26, he's probably not getting much better. He may have to transition to the bullpen. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Puckett is another under the radar arm, one who posted a 2.56 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 98/18 strikeout to walk ratio between Greensboro, Jupiter, and complex ball rehab work. He gets by much more on command than stuff, and while he's behind the above trio on the depth chart, he could sneak up to the majors as a back-end starter.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers*, Short Season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*Class A Affiliate will move from Greensboro, NC to Clinton, IA in 2019
Toolsy Outfielders: Victor Victor Mesa, Monte Harrison, Connor Scott, Tristan Pompey, Thomas Jones, Brian Miller, and Austin Dean
Though the system is not deep, perhaps the Marlins' best thing the system has going for it is that there are quite a few outfielders with star potential, even if those high ceilings are coupled with high bust potential. 22 year old Cuban import Victor Victor Mesa leads the pack, having signed for a huge $5.25 million bonus in October. He has an excellent glove and will be very valuable in center field, so it will be on his bat to catch up. Currently, he is a solid contact hitter who can get on base, and while he probably won't develop much power with his 5'9" frame, he has a ceiling as a leadoff hitter if he hits enough. His floor is among the highest in the system, and since he hasn't actually had an at bat in the minor leagues yet, that's saying something about the Marlins' farm sytem. 23 year old Monte Harrison came over in the Christian Yelich trade, and his ceiling and floor are exceptionally far apart for a hitter so far into his career. After cracking 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases in A ball last year, Harrison hit 19 more and stole 28 more in 2018 while slashing .240/.316/.399 for AA Jacksonville. Power/speed combinations like Harrison's are hard to come by and extremely valuable, but Harrison comes with one big problem; he strikes out way too much, including 36.9% of the time in 2018. If he's getting fooled this badly by AA pitching, he'll only struggle more with MLB pitching, and serious approach adjustments are necessary for him to succeed at the highest level. If he makes those adjustments, then he could be a perennial 20-20 player in the majors. 19 year old Connor Scott is farther away, having just been drafted in the first round (13th overall) out of a Tampa high school in 2018. Scott slashed .218/.309/.296 with a home run and nine stolen bases in 50 games between the complex ball and an aggressive assignment to Class A Greensboro, but those numbers don't show off his skills. Despite an unorthodox swing, the long and lanky Scott shows speed and feel for the barrel, with his wiry 6'4" frame, power could come too, and when that's combined with his good outfield defense and good arm, he has the potential to be a five tool player. Risk is always high with high school draftees, but Scott's ceiling might be the highest in the system, above even Harrison. 21 year old Tristan Pompey, the younger brother of Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey, was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Kentucky this year. Despite concerns about his plate discipline and swing mechanics, Pompey slashed a very impressive .299/.408/.397 with three home runs and ten stolen bases over 52 games across three levels in his pro debut, reaching as high as High A Jupiter. Especially surprising was his plate discipline, as his 47/32 strikeout to walk ratio was very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see how that plate discipline holds up over a full season, but the early returns are good for Pompey and he could be a productive major league hitter sooner than expected. 20 year old Thomas Jones was very raw when he was drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of a South Carolina high school in 2016, and so far, the Marlins have not been able to bring his potential out of him. Playing all of 2018 at Greensboro, he slashed .222/.277/.343 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing some of that blazing speed that got him drafted but struggling to do much of anything with the bat. His plate discipline currently plagues him (140/25 K/BB) and there isn't much sock in the bat, so even at 20 years old, he's running out of time to prove he can handle pro pitching. The Marlins hope 2019, his age-21 season, will be the year where he finally starts to tap into what scouts saw back in 2016. Lastly, 23 year old Brian Miller and 25 year old Austin Dean don't quite fit into the "toolsy" category, but they'll get a writeup here anyways. Both are high-floor hitters without much projection left, with Miller showing no power but good plate discipline and speed and Dean showing a productive bat. Miller slashed .295/.338/.355 with 40 stolen bases between Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this year, showing fourth outfielder potential, while Dean slashed and eye-popping .345/.410/.511 with 12 home runs and a nice 56/39 strikeout to walk ratio between Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, showing platoon/pinch hitter potential.
The Infielders: 2B Isan Diaz, SS Jose Devers, SS Osiris Johnson, 3B Joe Dunand, 3B James Nelson, and C Will Banfield
While there is some depth when it comes to high ceiling outfield prospects, this system really lacks in potential impact infielders, and the Marlins are unlikely to get any stars out of this group. 22 year old Isan Diaz leads the pack after having been acquired from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade last year, and like Monte Harrison, a fellow piece in the Yelich trade, there is a large gap between what Diaz can do and what he is doing. He split 2018 between AA Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, slashing a respectable .245/.365/.418 at the former but only .204/.281/.358 at the latter. He generates tons of power from a big, whippy swing, but he has swing and miss issues that keep his production down. However, as a patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks, and that gives him an enviable power/patient combination. If he can cut down those strikeouts and make better contact on pitches in the zone, he could be the Marlins' next Dan Uggla, but if he can't make those adjustments, he might better resemble late-career Uggla. 18 year old Jose Devers, who came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, was one of the youngest players in the Class A South Atlantic League this year, and his player profile is basically opposite to Diaz's. While Diaz's swing gives him all or nothing, Devers is a contact hitter with a very advanced approach for his age, enabling him to slash .272/.313/.330 against much older competition this year. He's also a very good defender at shortstop, so the only hole in his game for now is power. The skinny six footer has none of it for now, and he likely will never develop much, so he'll have to continue to line enough balls to the gaps to stay relevant. Time is on his side as he will play all of 2019 at 19 years old, and the big thing for him will just be adding strength. While Devers may be set to turn 19, 18 year old Osiris Johnson just had his birthday and played all of 2018 at just 17 years old. Johnson was drafted in the second round (53rd overall) out of an Oakland area high school this year, and while he hit well in complex ball (.301/.333/.447), he struggled to catch up to advanced Class A pitching upon his extremely aggressive promotion to Greensboro (.188/.205/.294). Johnson is very toolsy and generates power from a big swing, but that big swing also misses a lot, and with little patience, Class A pitchers were able to easily find holes in his approach this year. Set to play the whole 2019 season at 18 years old, he could spend years working on that approach and still be a young prospect, so he just has to do it. There's bust potential here, but Johnson has some of the higher upside in this section. 23 year old Joe Dunand, out of NC State, hit moderately well at High A Jupiter this year (.263/.326/.391) but saw his bat stall at Jacksonville (.212/.276/.369). With 14 total home runs on the year, he shows good power and some feel for the strike zone, but overall I don't think it adds up to a starting profile. His defense is very good at third base, and I can see him being power hitting utility infielder in the future. 21 year old James Nelson was riding high off a big 2017 at Greensboro (7 HR, .309/.354/.456) when 2018 went about as poorly as possible at Jupiter (2 HR, .211/.262/.280). He missed time to injury and overall just couldn't get anything going with the bat, so he'll hope to turn it back around in 2019 with a clean bill of health and a broad set of tools. Lastly, 18 year old catcher Will Banfield was a competitive balance pick (69th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school this year, and he's an interesting case. While he is great behind the plate with an excellent arm, his bat has held him back and some scouts worry if he'll ever be able to catch up to high level pitching. There is power in that bat, but the hit tool just isn't there yet. Learning to recognize breaking balls and catch up to velocity could make Banfield a starting catcher, but failure to do so will keep him from seeing the big leagues.
Electric Arms: Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Guzman, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Colton Hock, Tommy Eveld, and Tyler Kolek
Fortunately, the system isn't completely devoid of pitching talent like it used to be, and the Marlins do have a couple of hard throwers who could develop into more, though none have taken the step from "maybe can-be" to "potential ace" just yet. 23 year old Sandy Alcantara, who came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade, is the most advanced, but he also has been extremely enigmatic. He can hit 100 with his fastball and his slider and changeup have gotten better over the years, but he just doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect and that hurts his long term projection. In 2018, the skinny 6'4" righty went 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 96/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 innings, mostly at AAA New Orleans, but he struck out just 18% of his opponents along the way. He was moderately successful with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in a brief major league cup of coffee, but his 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings was far from ideal. At this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen. 22 year old Jorge Guzman came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, and though he can hit 103 (!) with his fastball, his 2018 season was somewhat of a disappointment as he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 101/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at High A Jupiter. His slider is coming along as well, but right now the two pitches aren't enough to overcome his mediocre command. Like Alcantara, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he could have Aroldis Chapman-esque velocity and ditch his changeup. Still, it's always exciting to have someone with a fastball that sits right around 100 as a starter. 20 year old Edward Cabrera, like the two above him, has not put it together yet but is making progress. The skinny, 6'4" righty posted a 4.22 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 93/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings at Class A Greensboro this year, which again is disappointing when his fastball can hit 100 and 101. His slider works well too, but his command wobbles and like Alcantara and Guzman, there is a lot he needs to work on and he needs to start striking batters out. 20 year old Trevor Rogers' pro debut didn't go as well as hoped in 2018, as he posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings for Greensboro this year. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, which is slower than the guys above, and his secondary stuff is still coming along, though he stands at a tall 6'6". The Marlins knew he would be a project when they drafted him in the first round (13th overall) out of a New Mexico high school in 2017, and a year and a half later, he's still a project. One positive from his 2018 season was the strikeout to walk ratio, as a 26% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate aren't half bad and should provide hope for a better 2019. 22 year old Colton Hock has been a bit disappointing so far in his career, with his 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 77/21 strikeout to walk ratio being fairly uninspiring in 91 innings against slightly younger competition at Greensboro in 2018. The 6'4" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curve, both of which he controls well, but it doesn't quite come together in an exciting starter package and he probably needs to move to the bullpen, where he pitched with Stanford. 24 year old Tommy Eveld is purely a bullpen prospect, having posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 61/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings between High A and AA. He should be in the majors in 2019 and could make an impact quickly. Lastly, we have our old friend, 22 year old Tyler Kolek, who isn't really a prospect anymore except for the fact that he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft with Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, and others still on the board. At the time, he threw over 100 miles per hour regularly and looked durable with a big, 6'5" frame, but injuries and poor command have ruined his pro career so far. Now, the fastball is down to the mid 90's, and without good secondaries or command, he's basically just organizational filler at this point. Too bad, really.
Polished Arms: Nick Neidert, Jordan Yamamoto, Braxton Garrett, Zac Gallen, Robert Dugger, Jeff Brigham, and Brady Puckett
Fortunately, the Marlins have enough polished arms in this section that they might be able to form a decent back of the rotation, and you could make the argument that this group of pitchers is better than the live arms discussed above. 21 year old Nick Neidert came over in the Dee Gordon trade and is the closest thing the Marlins have to a legitimate starting pitching prospect. In 26 starts at AA Jacksonville this year, the 6'1" righty went 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 154/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.2 innings, showing a good mix of stuff and command. His fastball and changeup generate weak contact, and while his lack of a good breaking ball limits his ceiling, he could be a #3 or #4 starter in Miami soon. 22 year old Jordan Yamamoto, who came over in the Christian Yelich trade, has flown under the radar a bit and I don't think he gets enough credit. In 13 starts between High A Jupiter, AA Jacksonville, and complex level rehab work, he went 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.2 innings, showing good command of a deceptive fastball and a very good curveball. While he needs to prove he can stay healthy, hitters have not been able to figure him out, and he posted a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings with Jacksonville against his most advanced opponents. He looks like a back-end starter for now but don't underestimate him. 21 year old Braxton Garrett missed most of 2017 and all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery after being drafted seventh overall in 2016, but once he's healthy, he has the highest ceiling in this group. Pre-surgery, he threw a low 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a good changeup, all of which he could control, which would seemingly give him a great combination of ceiling of floor if he were healthy. However, he comes with a lot of risk considering we just don't know what his stuff will look like so long after surgery, and because he turned 21 in August, he's not young as far as "guys who have made four starts since high school" go. 23 year old Zac Gallen, 23 year old Robert Dugger, and 26 year old Jeff Brigham are three guys who could contribute to the back of the rotation soon. Gallen is probably the best of the three, having posted a 3.65 ERA and a 136/48 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA New Orleans this year, though he does have problems with his average stuff getting hit too hard too often. Dugger, meanwhile, had a 3.40 ERA and a 141/43 strikeout to walk ratio between Jupiter and Jacksonville, and while he's behind Gallen on the depth chart, he has a similar career outlook. Brigham is older but posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings between Jacksonville, New Orleans, and complex ball rehab work, and while he throws mid 90's, his secondary stuff does need some work, and at 26, he's probably not getting much better. He may have to transition to the bullpen. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Puckett is another under the radar arm, one who posted a 2.56 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 98/18 strikeout to walk ratio between Greensboro, Jupiter, and complex ball rehab work. He gets by much more on command than stuff, and while he's behind the above trio on the depth chart, he could sneak up to the majors as a back-end starter.
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