A few years ago, the Cubs' system included such big names as Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Gleyber Torres, Ian Happ, and...you get the point. That group of hitters has graduated and helped end the 108 year title drought (except for Torres), and the effect is essentially an empty farm system. Right now, few prospects project to be much more than marginal contributors in this pitching-heavy system, though there is some nice starting pitching depth and a couple of prospects look like they could break out next season. The Cubs' player development is pretty good, so some players down on the farm may outplay their prospect status as it stands today.
Affiliates: AAA Iowa Cubs, AA Tennessee Smokies, High A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Class A South Bend Cubs, Short Season Eugene Emeralds, complex level AZL and DSL Cubs
The Headliner: C Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya's offensive breakout was the best thing to happen to the Cubs' system in 2018. A highly regarded catching prospect when signed out of Panama, Amaya has always been praised for his defense behind the plate but it took a little while for his bat to get going. That changed in 2018, when he slashed .256/.349/.403 with 12 home runs and a nice 91/50 strikeout to walk ratio in 116 games at Class A South Bend. Those numbers look rather pedestrian on the surface, but context makes them much better. Amaya played the entire season at age 19 and does not turn 20 until just before the 2019 season, making him one of the younger players in the Midwest League, his plate discipline improved greatly despite the jump from short season to full season ball, and he's a catcher; it's tough to find good defensive catchers who can also swing it. I like the way he gets extension on the ball after contact, and while he has some work to do on his overall hit tool, I think he can grow into a fine MLB catcher. There are plenty of farm systems with no projected starting-quality catchers anywhere, so having Amaya is definitely big. He's a long way off, but he's as good a bet as any teenage catcher to be a starter in the major leagues.
The Army of Back-End Workhorses: Alex Lange, Keegan Thompson, Cory Abbott, Thomas Hatch, Erich Uelmen, and Michael Rucker
These six pitchers all have a lot in common, which is why I grouped them together. Aside from being workhorses, all six pitched at Division I college programs and were drafted in either 2016 or 2017, and all but Rucker were taken in the top four rounds. Former LSU star Alex Lange is my personal favorite of the bunch, and he also has the best chance to be more than an innings eater. Lange was a first rounder in 2017 (30th overall) and spent all of 2018 at High A Myrtle Beach, going 6-8 with a 3.74 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings. While he doesn't burn up the radar guns, he throws hard enough in the low 90's and his curveball is a deadly weapon. The 20.4% strikeout rate was a little low, but the 7.7% walk rate was also low, especially when compared to his 9.2% rate from his final year at LSU. This I think has come with more consistency in his delivery, and I like his chances for improving further and becoming a mid-rotation starter. Behind Amaya, he might be the best prospect in the system. Former Auburn star Keegan Thompson was a third round pick (105th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange, but because he is an academic year older than Lange (seven months in reality), he made it up to AA in 2018. Between Myrtle Beach and AA Tennessee, he was 9-6 with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 115/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings, pitching a little better in High A than AA as expected. Like Lange, he has a great curve, but he also throws a good changeup and commands his pitches better than Lange, which makes up for the lower velocity. He just needs to improve his consistency, though I think his ceiling is lower than Lange's with the same floor. Former Loyola Marymount star Cory Abbott was a second round pick (67th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange and Thompson, though he split 2018 between Class A South Bend and Myrtle Beach. Partially due to starting lower in the minors, his numbers were the best of the three (8-6, 2.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131/39 K/BB in 115 IP). He gets by more on mixing his pitches because none stand out as plus, giving A-ball hitters fits in the process, though his margin for error will shrink as he moves up. Consider Abbott a back-end option. Former Oklahoma State star Thomas Hatch was a third round pick (104th overall) in 2016. He had a pretty good year at Tennessee this year (8-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 117/61 K/BB in 143.2 IP), showing the stuff and stamina to succeed but struggling a bit with his command. He looks like a #5 starter right now, but the walks are just a little high for his profile. Former Cal Poly star Erich Uelmen is the youngest of the six, having been drafted in the fourth round (135th overall) in 2017. He split 2018 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (8-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 82/30 K/BB in 89.1 total IP), generating tons of ground balls but also showing problems with durability. He has the highest reliever risk of the group. Lastly, former BYU star Michael Rucker, the oldest of the six, was an eleventh round pick in 2016 who rose to prominence with a big 2017 in A ball and some continued success at Tennessee in 2018 (9-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 118/38 K/BB in 132.2 IP). He gets by more on command than stuff, and though he's on the older side (pitched almost the whole season at age 24), he hopes to be a #5 starter in the near future.
Waiting to Put It Together: RHP Adbert Alzolay, SS Aramis Ademan, RHP Duane Underwood, LHP Brendon Little, and RHP Bailey Clark
These five players have had varying levels of success but also have seen inconsistency, and we're waiting to see which ones can put it together and become stars or at least valuable players. We'll start with 23 year old pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay, one of the top prospects in the system. Signed from Venezuela before the 2013 season, he was not a notable prospect at all until his breakout in 2015 with Short Season Eugene, then he really broke out with a huge 2017 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (7-4, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 108/34 K/BB in 114.1 total IP). I actually got to see his final start of the season that year in person, but he couldn't make it out of the second inning. He was off to a decent start at AAA Iowa in 2018 considering the difficult pitchers' environment in the PCL (2-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27/13 K/BB in 39.2 IP), but a lat injury ended his season just eight starts in. He's somewhat difficult to project on the mound, showing a hard low to mid 90's fastball, though its movement is just average, and a very good curveball. Despite his inconsistency on the mound his control is pretty good, and it seems that he runs into his biggest problems not when he starts walking everybody, but when his stuff flattens out and he becomes hittable. In that sense, even though he already has eight AAA starts under his belt, he still has a high ceiling and a low floor, with possible outcomes being anything from a #2 starter to a reliever. Meanwhile, another prospect with initials AA has been up and down for different reasons. 20 year old shortstop Aramis Ademan has always been a big prospect, playing above his age group every year. He performed well enough against advanced competition as an 18 year old in 2017 (.267/.324/.427), but 2018 has been a different story as a 19 year old in the High A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach: 3 HR, .207/.291/.273, 95/38 K/BB in 114 games. The teenager seemed to be having the bat knocked out of his hands by pitchers years older than himself, popping out and grounding out more than he has in the past. Offensively, the one saving grace for his season was a moderately high walk rate of 8.4%, which is nothing crazy but is enough to show he at least could recognize pitches and maintain an approach. Of course, given his age and good defense at a premium position, the poor 2018 does not erase his stock completely and another year in High A could pay dividends. There's a lot of pre-pitch movement in his swing and he seems to sometimes just be flinging the bat at the ball, so increasing strength and getting more consistent with his mechanics, when combined with his moderately good eye and approach, could facilitate a breakout. He's a long way off but he could be a starting shortstop down the road, or a solid bench option. Duane Underwood was taken in the second round (67th overall) of the 2012 draft, and the man has somehow figured out how to stay on prospect lists for seven years. Talk about prospect fatigue. The 24 year old has managed this by looking great on the right days and terrible on the wrong days, and in 2018 it came together for a 4-10 record, a 4.53 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at AAA Iowa. He has been so inconsistent and the Cubs have been trying to develop him as a starter for so long that he ended up making five relief appearances at the end of the year, allowing six runs in seven innings (but striking out eight to just two walks). Overall, more than six years after he was drafted, it's hard to say what his impact will be; I'm guessing long reliever. Brendon Little was taken in the first round (27th overall) out of a Florida JuCo in 2017, which I saw as an overdraft. As it turns out, he struggled at Class A South Bend this year, going 5-11 with a 5.15 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 90/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. The level wasn't supposed to be particularly difficult for him, a hard throwing JuCo lefty, but hitters were able to handle the high velocity and great curveball due to his lack of a changeup, good command, and movement on his fastball. Development of the changeup and of his command could still make him a mid-rotation starter, but I think his future lies in the bullpen. Lastly, Bailey Clark was a fifth round pick out of Duke in 2016, and statistically he has been all over the place. A 4.59 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 2017 gave way to a 1.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, as well as a 63/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, in 2018. It's hard to know what to make of Clark going forward, but I think he has a pretty decent shot at being a useful reliever.
The Distant Future: LHP Brailyn Marquez, SS Nico Hoerner, OF Brennen Davis, OF Cole Roederer, OF Jimmy Herron, and OF Nelson Velazquez
These six players are so far off from the majors that anything can happen between now and then, though likely one or two could develop into very useful players. 19 year old lefty Brailyn Marquez had a breakout year in 2018, posting a 3.13 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 59/16 strikeout to walk ratio across 12 starts, mostly in Short Season ball at Eugene but also in Class A South Bend. His stuff all ticked up this year, and despite being a teenage lefty just learning to control his new velocity, he was surprisingly consistent in that he only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his twelve starts. A projectable 6'4", he figures to add even more velocity, and the command is pretty good for a pitcher in his position. He's a long way off and twelve starts in the low minors don't guarantee anything, but he's a breakout candidate for 2019 and could be the system's top prospect following the season should he do so. Perhaps the closest to the majors out of these six is this year's first round pick (24th overall), 21 year old infielder Nico Hoerner. Personally, I wasn't a big fan of the pick, though through a small sample his pro debut was a success: 2 HR, .327/.450/.571 slash line, 6 SB, 4/9 K/BB in 14 games. The Stanford product is considered a high floor, low ceiling player who could be the Cubs' starting second baseman down the road, showing no standout tools but doing a little bit of everything. If he doesn't start, I think he'll make a fine super-utility player along the lines of Houston's Marwin Gonzalez. With their 62nd and 77th overall picks, respectively, the Cubs took a couple of toolsy high school outfielders in Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer. While Davis is bigger and has more power potential, Roederer is faster and is a bit more advanced. I like Davis' upside better as a potential multi-category contributor, while Roederer might have a smoother road to the majors. Of course, with a couple of raw outfielders taken out of high school, the risk is very high and they have a lot to prove to be considered top prospects. The third round pick (98th overall), outfielder Jimmy Herron, comes from Duke and managed to slash .245/.333/.345 with three home runs in 33 games at South Bend this year, respectable for someone straight out of college ball. He's unlikely to ever start for the Cubs, but his strong plate discipline and hittability gives him a good shot at being a fourth outfielder in the fairly near future as a quick-to-the-big-leagues type. Lastly, another outfielder, 19 year old Nelson Velazquez, struggled at South Bend (.188/.242/.196) but was much better after a demotion to Eugene (.250/.322/.458, 11 HR, 12 SB, 81/23 K/BB). The Puerto Rico product is obviously very raw, but like Davis, he shows a tantalizing power-speed combination that should become more impactful once he improves his plate discipline. Like Davis and to an extent Roederer, he's high ceiling, low floor.
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