2024 Hall of Fame: My Ballot

Welcome back to the 2024 Hall of Fame news cycle. With old controversial names like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa having been replaced by a fresh set of controversial  names like Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran, it feels like we've entered a new era. But now with that trio on the board, it looks like we may be in the clear in terms of more controversial names popping up, with really only Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano on the horizon in a few years. I've written extensively about my thoughts on cheaters, and you can read my most recent take, written last year, here. But because the Bonds's, Clemens's, and soon the A-Rod's and Manny's of the world are exiting the ballot one way or another, little by little we can start to focus a little more on what Hall of Fame discourse is supposed to be about – players' on field accomplishments. The newcomers this year, from David Wright to Chase Utley to Joe Mauer and beyond, bring on that much more enjoyable discussion.

In fact, this ballot has more 50-50 names than I've ever seen. Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Billy Wagner, and Andruw Jones are easy "yes" votes for me. Manny Ramirez is closer but I still feel confident in that one. However, there's about a half dozen names – Carlos Beltran, Gary Sheffield, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton, Chase Utley, and Bobby Abreu – who feel extremely 50-50 to me. In the past, I've kept Beltran, Helton, and Abreu out. I've also voted for Abreu, but this year I voted for all except Abreu. Next year, any of those six could switch sides on my ballot. David Wright and Andy Pettitte came close as well. Overall, it's a really balanced ballot this year once you get past that first set of four easy yesses.

YES VOTES

3B Adrian Beltre (1998-2018)
Regular Season: 477 HR, .286/.339/.480, 121 SB, 115 wRC+, 83.8 fWAR in 2933 games.
Postseason: 5 HR, .261/.297/.450, 0 SB, 95 wRC+ in 28 games.
Not only is Adrian Beltre the easiest yes vote on this entire ballot, he's a fun one to boot. He's a bit of a similar player to Scott Rolen as a superb defensive third baseman with an above average bat, but he also played in nearly 900 more games or about six full seasons' worth. There's no doubt in my mind that he's a Hall of Famer and I find it very hard to imagine anyone would disagree. Sure, he only had one truly elite season, but for two decades, this man simply performed year in and year out with unbelievable consistency. He had 18 separate seasons with greater than 2.0 fWAR, which is generally considered to be the standard for a solid everyday player, was an above league average hitter 13 times and nearly did so a 14th time in his age-39 season, and played above league average defense 19 times in 21 years. The cumulative stats are equally impressive, with nearly 500 home runs, over 600 doubles (he's #11 all time on that list), over 3000 hits, and a surprising triple digit stolen base total. It's funny to think that for most of his career, he didn't really look like a Hall of Famer, but looking back, he's one of the greatest ever to play his position. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't give him credit for his massive 2004 season, where he absolutely did look like a Hall of Famer hitting a ferocious .334/.388/.629 with 48 home runs for the Dodgers and leading all baseball players not named Barry Bonds with 9.7 fWAR. And lastly, to top it all off, Beltre was by all accounts an absolute gem of a human being that entertained fans, was loved by his teammates, and was active in the community. He probably won't get in unanimously, but anyone who doesn't vote for him is tremendously misguided.

SS/3B Alex Rodriguez (1994-2016)
Regular Season: 696 HR, .295/.380/.550, 329 SB, 141 wRC+, 113.7 fWAR in 2784 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .259/.365/.457, 8 SB, 116 wRC+ in 75 games.
Let's take a 180 and go from an extraordinarily likable third baseman to one of the most disliked third basemen in history. Alex Rodriguez is the new Barry Bonds. His accomplishments on the field put him way above and beyond what it takes to even be an inner circle Hall of Famer. With nearly 700 home runs, over 300 stolen bases, over 500 doubles, and an on-base percentage approaching .400 while playing stellar defense on the left side of the infield, he is quite literally one of the greatest to ever play the game. His 113.7 fWAR ranks thirteenth all time, ahead of names like Mickey Mantle (112.3), Mike Schmidt (106.5), and Rickey Henderson (106.3). But of course, that's not the point. Not only did Alex Rodriguez cheat, he did so at a time when it was clearly against the rules and he served a yearlong suspension in 2014. So he didn't just cheat, he is a cheater. That said, as I mentioned in my thoughts on cheaters and the Hall of Fame, so are dozens of players already enshrined. There is no purity to preserve. Put him in, and do the same with Bonds and Clemens while we're at it.

LHP Billy Wagner (1995-2010)
Regular Season: 2.31 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 1.00 WHIP, 1196/300 K/BB in 903 innings.
Postseason: 10.03 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 1.97 WHIP, 13/2 K/BB in 11.2 innings.
Billy Wagner has been on the ballot for long enough. He finally crossed the 50% threshold in 2022 in his seventh attempt, and in 2023 he got all the way to 68%. 2024, attempt #9, needs to be the year. Left handed relievers are obviously extremely important, given that every team always ensures that they have one in the bullpen, yet there is not a single one in the Hall of Fame. Billy Wagner isn't just the best lefty reliever of all time – it's not even close. There aren't many cumulative stats available for relievers (no, I don't care about saves), but Wagner leads all lefty relievers in strikeouts (1196, ahead of Jesse Orosco's 1169), fWAR (24.0, ahead of Aroldis Chapman's 21.8), RE24 (198.2, ahead of Orosco's 154.5), and WPA (28.4, ahead of Chapman's 20.7), four stats I think are very good measures of long term success. And aside from strikeouts, none of these are even close, with a 10% lead in fWAR, a 28% lead in RE24, and a massive 37% lead in WPA even as Chapman creeps closer. Take handedness out of the question, and he still stacks up extremely well to the six true relievers in the Hall of Fame right now. Mariano Rivera is head and shoulders above everybody, but looking at the others – Trevor Hoffman, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Lee Smith, and Bruce Sutter – Wagner has a better ERA, FIP, WHIP, RE24, and strikeout rate than all of them. 903 innings isn't a huge number, but it's big enough and he was so dominant in those 903 innings that the case is clear. The lone blemish on his resume is a rough, small sample postseason line, but that's hardly enough to keep him out. Wagner should have been in the Hall of Fame years ago and I hope 2024 is finally the year.

OF Andruw Jones (1996-2012)
Regular Season: 434 HR, .254/.337/.486, 152 SB, 111 wRC+, 67.0 fWAR in 2196 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .273/.363/.433, 5 SB, 108 wRC+ in 76 games.
The more time goes by, the more clear-cut Andruw Jones' case looks. We are talking about a player in the conversation for the greatest defensive outfielder of all time, and that alone at least puts him in the conversation. Throw in that he hit 434 home runs, including 25+ in ten straight seasons, and had four different seasons in which he posted an on-base percentage above .360. Yeah, the end of his career was pretty abysmal, as he slashed just .214/.314/.420 and put just just 6.0 fWAR in 589 games from his age-30 season onwards. But what he had done before that was nothing short of tremendous. From 1998-2006, a stretch of nine seasons, he slashed .270/.347/.513 with 319 home runs and 110 stolen bases, which together with his defense was enough to help him rack up the third most fWAR (57.3) in all of MLB behind only Barry Bonds (70.6) and Alex Rodriguez (68.6). And that's no fluke – that's nearly a decade sitting in the top three in the sport. That's a Hall of Fame-caliber prime by any measure, and even with the drop off at the end, it's hard to argue with a guy who hit 434 home runs on his way to being an 11% better than league average hitter, appeared in over 2000 games, and showed well in the postseason, all while playing some of the best outfield defense ever seen. That's pretty clear to me.

OF Carlos Beltran (1998-2017)
Regular Season: 435 HR, .279/.350/.486, 312 SB, 118 wRC+, 67.8 fWAR in 2586 games.
Postseason: 16 HR, .307/.412/.609, 11 SB, 169 wRC+ in 65 games.
They took very different paths to get there, but the final career numbers for Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones are remarkably similar. Beltran is slightly ahead across the board, including playing in nearly 400 more games, though Jones of course was an all-time great defender. For me, Jones is clearly in, and I'll consider Beltran a closer case. We're left with a pretty exceptional career even if no individual stats stick out. With 435 home runs, 565 doubles, 312 stolen bases, 1084 walks, 1582 runs scored, and 1587 RBI, the counting stats are impressive. He eclipsed 5 fWAR seven times in an eight year period from 2001-2008, totaling 46.6 fWAR in that stretch that placed him fourth in baseball to only Albert Pujols (62.2), Alex Rodriguez (61.9), and Barry Bonds (54.3). Like Jones, that eight year peak put him near the pinnacle of the sport for a long period of time. He put up six 20-20 seasons in that stretch and came two home runs shy of a 40-40 season in 2004. It's all great, but there's two more important factors to consider. One is that he was implicated as one of the ringleaders in the Astros' 2017 sign stealing scandal, so I have to apply the "cheating penalty." With that, if I'm being honest, he's probably not in. However, it's his postseason performance that pushes him over the edge. In 65 games, he hit .307/.412/.609 with 16 home runs, 15 doubles, and 11 stolen bases, which would put him on pace for about 40 home runs and 27 stolen bases over a full 162 games. He's not the all time leader in anything because 65 games wasn't quite enough to match guys like Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, and Jose Altuve in the counting stats, but few players in the history of the game can match his combination of quality and quantity of postseason performance. Whatever the cheating penalty takes off his resume, the postseason performance puts it back on, and for me it's just enough to earn a vote.

OF Manny Ramirez (1993-2011)
Regular Season: 555 HR, .312/.411/.585, 38 SB, 153 wRC+, 66.3 fWAR in 2302 games.
Postseason: 29 HR, .285/.394/.544, 1 SB, 140 wRC+ in 111 games.
Manny Ramirez presents a very interesting case. Like Alex Rodriguez, he cheated, he got caught, and he cheated at a time when it was clearly against the rules. So now I have to apply that penalty to his numbers, which on their own are pretty comfortably up to Hall of Fame standards. I noted that borderline players who were caught or at least have a consensus around them using PED's would not make my ballot, but because Ramirez is fairly comfortably above that threshold, he then becomes a borderline case after the PED penalty has already been factored in. Still, even with the PED's, it's hard to go ahead a guy that finished well above 500 home runs and nearly reached a .300/.400/.600 career line in over 2300 games. Only five hitters ever can match all three legs of Manny's slash line – Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, and Hank Greenberg. None of those players appeared in a game after 1960, and among that group, only Ruth out-homered Ramirez. He is a top-25 hitter of all time by wRC+, a feat made more impressive by the fact that offense was at an all time high when he played, and he reached a 140 or better wRC+ fifteen times in a sixteen year stretch from 1995-2010. So for a decade and a half, he was no less than an elite hitter at virtually any time. Throw in the fact that he is the all time postseason home run leader at 29, and I feel comfortable getting over the PED penalty and the poor defense.

OF Gary Sheffield (1988-2009)
Regular Season: 509 HR, .292/.393/.514, 253 SB, 141 wRC+, 62.1 fWAR in 2576 games.
Postseason: 6 HR, .248/.401/.398, 1 SB, 120 wRC+ in 44 games.
Gary Sheffield is a very borderline case, and I won't die on this hill. Given that he likely used PED's, he would seem to fit the bill as a player with a borderline case who was disqualified because without those PED's, he probably doesn't put up a HoF resume. But with that said, his PED usage is not as clear-cut as guys like Bonds, Clemens, A-Rod, or Manny Ramirez, and I've mentioned that I tend to look for at least widespread consensus if not full on proof. I would flip my vote to "no" if proof came out, but to this point I don't find "probably" to be a strong enough adverb to apply that penalty. So let's take his case for what he did on the field. Sheffield clubbed over 500 home runs and over a thousand extra base hits in total while holding a slash line that nearly reached the .300/.400/.500 threshold despite a very long, 22 year career. Finishing with a career 141 wRC+, he had three qualified seasons in which he was up over 170 (an elite number) and six in which he was up over 150. And unlike many big power hitters, he rarely struck out, topping out at a measly 83 punch outs in 2004 and 2008. So he has the counting stats and he certainly looked the part of a Hall of Famer for a few different sustained periods in his career, and for me that's just enough even if he wasn't a great defender. The numbers don't look quite as great coming after Manny Ramirez, but it's important to note that Manny was playing with the PED penalty while Sheffield is not.

C Joe Mauer (2004-2018)
Regular Season: 143 HR, .306/.388/.439, 52 SB, 123 wRC+, 53.0 fWAR in 1858 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .275/.341/.300, 0 SB, 77 wRC+ in 10 games.
Joe Mauer is another borderline case. He only played 15 seasons, and his 1858 games played are the fewest ever for a position player that's earned my hypothetical vote going back 2018, 130 behind Larry Walker's 1988. Not only that, but his .439 slugging percentage is the lowest among any player I've voted for, just behind Derek Jeter's .440. That said, when you get beyond the short career and the lack of power, Mauer shines in just about everything else. His 53.0 fWAR place him fifteenth all time among catchers, ahead of names like Mickey Cochrane (50.6) and Roy Campanella (45.7), though it's also behind names like Russell Martin (54.9) and Brian McCann (54.5). Meanwhile, his .388 career on-base percentage is the third highest ever for a catcher who appeared in more than 900 games (and the two names ahead of him, Cochrane and Wally Schang, both retired before World War II) and this next stat might be even more impressive: Joe Mauer joins Mike Piazza and Buster Posey as the only catchers to bat over .300 for their careers since integration even when you set the minimum as low as 300 plate appearances. He's simply a unicorn when it comes to contact-hitting catchers. We also have to look at his incredible 2009 season, when he won the AL MVP Award, put up 8.4 fWAR, and posted the highest single season batting average (.365) ever by a catcher (minimum 400 PA) since King Kelly in 1886, when America had just 38 states. I'll admit, all those numbers are impressive, but still, the counting stats are somewhat lacking. Here's where I'll give his profile one more nudge. Joe Mauer was born in Saint Paul, went to high school in Saint Paul, was drafted first overall by his hometown Twins, and played his entire career in his home city. Doing that while being, relatively speaking, one of the greatest catchers ever in terms of hitting for average, is just enough to earn my vote. It's not easy to be a great catcher, but Mauer made it look easy.

1B Todd Helton (1997-2013)
Regular Season: 369 HR, .316/.414/.539, 37 SB, 132 wRC+, 54.9 fWAR in 2247 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .211/.303/.281, 0 SB, 48 wRC+ in 15 games.
I have left Todd Helton off my ballot every year until this year, but this time, he'll just barely squeak in. As a first baseman (negative defensive value) playing his home games at Coors Field, the offensive bar is going to be incredibly high to reach the Hall of Fame, and during his peak from 1999-2005, he did just that by slashing .341/.442/.621 with 241 home runs in 1092 games. Over that seven year stretch, it was good for the fourth most fWAR in baseball behind Bonds, A-Rod, and Andruw Jones. After that, the decline was fairly steep; from 2006-2013, he slashed .289/.388/.448 with 98 home runs in 968 games. That means for nearly half of his career, he was a moderately above average hitter (112 wRC+) while offering no defensive value. But then again, he ran nearly a .400 on-base percentage in his post-prime years that I'm describing as a "fairly steep decline." Meanwhile, while it's not his fault that he only got to play in fifteen postseason games, Helton did not take advantage of that small sample opportunity so there's no addition to the resume there. In the end, we have to decide if seven years of elite hitting is enough by itself to warrant a Hall of Fame vote – in the past, that's been a no for me. This year, I find myself a little more taken by some of those insane seasons in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, etc., and he had some solid post-prime seasons in 2007 and 2009. I'll give him the yes this year.

2B Chase Utley (2003-2018)
Regular Season: 259 HR, .275/.358/.465, 154 SB, 118 wRC+, 61.6 fWAR in 1937 games.
Postseason: 10 HR, .224/.364/.410, 11 SB, 110 wRC+ in 68 games.
Full disclosure, I was completely ready to vote "no" on Chase Utley, but the closer I looked, the more compelling his case became. On the surface, he seems like a textbook "Hall of Very Good" player. 259 home runs is nothing special, 411 doubles is nice but not a standout stat, he played in fewer than 2000 games, had an unremarkable .823 career OPS, and hit just .224 in a large postseason sample. I grew up watching him play in the same division as my hometown Nationals, and while he made a great team alongside guys like Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Cole Hamels, I didn't see him as standing out and never felt like I was watching a Hall of Famer. But let's look closer. His peak from 2005-2009, while short, was truly elite. He accumulated more than 7.0 fWAR in five straight seasons, totaling 38.4 that made for the second highest total in all of baseball behind only Albert Pujols while slashing .301/.388/.535 with 146 home runs in 758 games. Five years among the game's elite isn't a ton of time, but over the next five years from 2010-2014, he continued to contribute at a high level and in fact when you pull the camera out to the nine year stretch from 2005-2013, he's still second to only Pujols with his 53.9 fWAR in that stretch. I'll reiterate that – over the nine year stretch, no small sample, he was the second best player in baseball by fWAR in the post-steroid era. How did he do it? Utley was an on-base machine, posting OBP's above .375 for six straight seasons and stayed over .340 for nine straight, and he hit for power too, with four consecutive seasons of 73 or more extra base hits. All along, he played very strong defense at second base, was one of the game's most efficient and effective baserunners, and was an overall consistent, steady presence for the Phillies dynasties of the 2000's. Lastly, let's look back at the postseason resume. Sure, he only hit .224, but that's in large part due to an abysmal 3-43 run over his final two postseasons at the age of 37 and 38 – before his 37th birthday, he was a career .263/.404/.497 hitter in 49 games, including a Herculean .296/.424/.648 effort in the Phillies' ultimately unsuccessful 2009 title defense.

NO VOTES

OF Bobby Abreu (1996-2014)
Regular Season: 288 HR, .291/.395/.475, 400 SB, 129 wRC+, 59.8 fWAR in 2425 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .284/.392/.418, 2 SB, 111 wRC+ in 76 games.
In the past, I have voted for Bobby Abreu and every year I'm very 50-50. It's an extremely borderline case in a year with quite a few borderline cases. Bobby Abreu had a great career, clubbing nearly 300 home runs and nearly 600 doubles while getting on base at a nearly .400 clip and stealing 400 bases. From 1998-2006, he posted an OBP above .400 eight times in nine seasons, he hit at least fifteen home runs in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, clubbing at least 30 doubles in eleven of those, and stole at least nineteen bases in fourteen straight seasons from 1998-2011. He was an on-base machine, could hit for some power, and was an extremely smart baserunner that maximized his speed on the base paths. Add in that he played in over 150 games in thirteen straight seasons from 1998-2010, and he was a model of consistency that contributed to the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels offenses in a wide variety of ways. It's a rock-solid offensive profile, if not the most flashy, but his glove doesn't do him any favors. With an average glove, I think I would vote Abreu in. But he was a net-negative in the field, especially in the second half of his career, so the pressure is on the bat. And it was a very, very good bat. But was it truly great? I think it was close, but I do lean towards a small Hall philosophy and ultimately Bobby Abreu falls victim to that this year. If he got voted in, I wouldn't be opposed, and I may even vote for him in the future.

3B David Wright (2004-2018)
Regular Season: 242 HR, .296/.376/.491, 196 SB, 133 wRC+, 51.2 fWAR in 1585 games.
Postseason: 2 HR, .198/.311/.319, 1 SB, 72 wRC+ in 24 games.
David Wright is close. He had some excellent seasons, including an exceptional four year run from 2005-2008 in which he accrued 25.8 fWAR (fifth most in MLB) while hitting .311/.394/.534 with 116 home runs. While his true peak only lasted four years, he continued to play very well over the next half decade or so, putting himself on a Hall of Fame pace. Unfortunately, from age-31 (2014) onwards, his production collapsed and he hit just .265/.339/.395 with 20 home runs in 211 games, good for just 2.6 fWAR, and he played in just two games after his 34th birthday. Overall, David Wright looked like a Hall of Famer from 2004-2013, a nice decade of production, but couldn't close out the deal. It doesn't help either that he didn't take much advantage of his two postseason opportunities and hit under .200.

LHP Andy Pettitte (1995-2013)
Regular Season: 256-153, 3.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 2448/1031 K/BB in 3316 innings.
Postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 183/76 K/BB in 276.2 innings.
The phrase "Hall of Very Good" gets thrown around often, and I think Andy Pettitte can be a prime example of what that looks like. The closer you look at his resume, the better it looks, with a very long career that provided a tremendous amount of value to the Yankees and the Astros. He was a true workhorse that topped 200 innings ten different times and 185 innings thirteen different times, and for the most part he kept his ERA in the 3.50 to 4.30 range most years despite pitching in hitter-friendly parks in the Steroid Era. His postseason resume is impressive, too, as his numbers did not dip at all and he earned the 2001 ALCS MVP Award. Fans can underestimate the value of a strong #2 or #3 starter, and Pettitte provided that for nearly two decades, even popping for ace-like seasons in 1997 and 2005. There is a place in the Hall for consistency and longevity, but ultimately I see it as a place for the all time greats, not just those who were able to string together enough cumulative value to make it. For as great as he was, aside from those two great seasons I don't think opposing teams looked at the lineup card in the morning and thought "uh oh, Andy Pettitte is pitching." Obviously nobody looked forward to facing him, and he still provided a very tough matchup, but the point stands. Andy Pettitte was very, very good for a very long time, but I just don't see a Hall of Famer.

LHP Mark Buehrle (2000-2015)
Regular Season: 214-160, 3.81 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 1870/734 K/BB in 3283.1 innings.
Postseason: 2-1, 4.11 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 16/1 K/BB in 30.2 innings.
Mark Buehrle is closer than you'd think, but ultimately not quite a Hall of Famer. He was a model of consistency, going fifteen straight seasons with at least 198.2 innings pitched while only once allowing his ERA to rise above 4.28 or his FIP above 4.46. He generated a lot of weak contact, took care of some of it himself with a standout glove, and gave the White Sox and later Marlins and Blue Jays a rock near the top of their rotations. However, he also spent much of his career pitching in a weaker AL Central and he was never particularly dominant, save for perhaps his 2005 season (3.12 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 149/40 K/BB) and of course his 2007 no-hitter and 2009 perfect game. It's hard to get into the Hall based on consistent solid performance rather than periods of true standout performance, and if you were going to give Buehrle a shot, you probably would have wanted to see him throw more than sixteen seasons.

SS Omar Vizquel (1989-2012)
Regular Season: 80 HR, .272/.336/.352, 404 SB, 83 wRC+, 42.5 fWAR in 2968 games.
Postseason: 0 HR, .250/.327/.316, 23 SB, 70 wRC+ in 57 games.
I wasn't a big Omar Vizquel fan before the abuse/sexual assault allegations came out against him, and while I tend not to be concerned about a player's off field behavior, the allegations are pretty serious. Still, I don't need those to know that he's not a Hall of Famer. I do think there is a place in the Hall for the game's elite defenders, but Ozzie Smith (90 wRC+) and Andruw Jones (111 wRC+) are not in the same tier as Vizquel (83 wRC+). Jones clubbed 434 home runs and was a well-above league average hitter for most of his career, while Smith was 10% below league average but did pop for seven seasons in which he was above league average. Vizquel, meanwhile, was 17% below league average for his career and only twice in his 24 seasons could be considered above league average by wRC+ (115 in 1999, 102 in 2002). In an era when offense was at an all time high, Vizquel was a black hole in those Mariners, Indians, and Giants offenses that hit for no power and didn't even get on base at a terribly high clip. He finished with a .336 on-base percentage for his career and never reached .400 in any single season. The counting stats are good – nearly 3000 hits, over 450 doubles, and over 400 stolen bases – but they're not enough to make up for the lack of impact at the plate even with the special glove.

RHP Francisco Rodriguez (2002-2017)
Regular Season: 2.86 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 1142/389 K/BB in 976 innings.
Postseason: 2.95 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 49/18 K/BB in 36.2 innings.
The bar for relievers to get into the Hall of Fame is high, and it should be. The fact that Billy Wagner isn't in proves that, and I'm all in on Wagner's case. Francisco Rodriguez, I believe, is close to having a Hall of Fame case, but it's not quite enough. Among relievers, he's twentieth all time in fWAR, ninth in RE24, and thirteenth in WPA. For a span of fourteen years from 2003-2016, he was more often than not among the best closers in the league, and that's certainly a loud statement. But inconsistent command kept him from truly joining the game's elite closers for the most part, and I don't think he's in the same tier as Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner (and of course nobody is in Mariano Rivera's tier). I think he's closer to Joe Nathan, who narrowly missed my ballot when he appeared in 2022. I'm glad K-Rod got the 5% so we can give him a few looks, but I'll ultimately be okay if Rivera, Hoffman, and hopefully eventually Wagner are the only relievers from that era to make the Hall.

OF Matt Holliday (2004-2018)
Regular Season: 316 HR, .299/.379/.510, 108 SB, 135 wRC+, 49.3 fWAR in 1903 games.
Postseason: 13 HR, .245/.303/.421, 1 SB, 97 wRC+ in 77 games.
Matt Holliday has a nice case that comes up a bit short. For a while there, he certainly had the bat, hitting .314/.393/.538 with 218 home runs and 40.8 fWAR from 2006-2013, the latter of which was sixth best in baseball in that eight year stretch. However, the bar is a bit higher because he spent half a decade in Colorado and because his below average glove adds nothing to his case. In the end, he dropped off a bit once he hit his mid 30's and came up with just decent counting stats (316 HR, 468 2B, 2096 hits, 802 walks) for the bat-only player he was. I'd like to see more production in his non-peak seasons and a larger sample size if I'm going to vote for him.

SS Jose Reyes (2003-2018)
Regular Season: 145 HR, .283/.334/.427, 517 SB, 103 wRC+, 43.9 fWAR in 1877 games.
Postseason: 1 HR, .229/.275/.354, 3 SB, 57 wRC+ in 11 games.
Jose Reyes had a fun career. In the mid-2000's, when he was stealing 60+ bases with triples totals in the teens every season and batting close to .300, he was must-see TV. From 2005-2008, his 198 stolen bases led MLB by a large margin over second-place Juan Pierre (162) and third-place Hanley Ramirez (137), while his 48 triples placed atop the league as well. However, that peak didn't last long and he ultimately settled in as an average hitting, average defending shortstop that created most of his value with his legs. Reyes had a great career with over 500 stolen bases but it wasn't Hall worthy.

2023 Dugout Edge MLB Awards

American League MVP

Winner: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels.
Stat line: 44 HR, .304/.412/.654, 20 SB, 180 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 135 games.

Stat line: 10-5, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 4.00 FIP, 167/55 K/BB in 132 innings.
Just when you think Shohei Ohtani can't get any better, he gets better. In fact, if we completely disregarded his pitching, he would still be in serious contention for the AL MVP Award. Even as a DH, he led American League hitters in fWAR and finished fourth in bWAR due to an elite 180 wRC+, nine points ahead of second place Corey Seager (169) who played in sixteen fewer games. Not only did he lead the AL in fWAR in wRC+, but he also did so in home runs, extra base hits (78), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, wOBA (.433), runs created above average (60.6), and just about every other comprehensive hitting statistic you can think of. It's hard to dispute that Shohei Ohtani was the best hitter in the American League this year, period. But then we also get to consider his pitching. While he wasn't quite the ace we saw last season, he was still a well above average starting pitcher that made 23 starts with a 72 ERA- (28% better than league average) and put up 2.4 more fWAR, bringing his total to 9.0 on the season. Unfortunately we won't get to see him pitch next year, perhaps opening up the AL MVP race a little bit (if he's even in the AL), but for 2023 he deserves to win the AL MVP Award unanimously.

Runner-up: SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers.
Stat line: 33 HR, .327/.390/.623, 2 SB, 169 wRC+, 6.1 fWAR in 119 games.
After Ohtani, the rest of the AL MVP field is wide open. For me, Corey Seager comes out on top, and the fact that he did so despite spending a couple stints on the IL and playing just 119 games speaks to how good he was when he was on the field. He led all American League hitters not named Ohtani in wRC+, extra base hits (75), batting average, slugging percentage, wOBA (.419), and runs created above average (39.5), the latter of which is a cumulative stat that he compiled in a dozen or more fewer games than his competition. Even when the Rangers slumped, his bat never went cold and he posted an OPS of .885 or higher in every month except October, where he played just one game. All of this, of course, while starting 112 games at shortstop, the most valuable defensive position on the diamond other than catcher. When you're the consensus second best hitter in the league while playing shortstop, there's not much to argue against. It's just the fact that he played only 119 games which makes it close with the rest of the field. Had he played a full season, he'd be competing with Ohtani for the award itself.

Honorable mention: 2B Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers.
Stat line: 29 HR, .276/.348/.478, 14 SB, 124 wRC+, 6.3 fWAR in 162 games.
It's not a traditional MVP stat line, but Marcus Semien deserves to be in the conversation for runner-up alongside his double play partner. Semien gets here on the strength of his defense and durability. A Gold Glove contender at second base, he was fourth among all AL infielders in outs above average and hit much, much better than first place Andres Gimenez (97 wRC+) and third place Maikel Garcia (84) and comfortably bested second place Bobby Witt Jr. (115) as well. Alongside Seattle's Eugenio Suarez, he was one of two American League players to appear in every game this season, while also leading all AL players in plate appearances (753) and runs scored (122). Semien's fingerprints were truly on everything this year for Texas, and always positive. While his 126 wRC+ was only good for twelfth in the league, he was certainly no slouch with the bat, finishing second in the league in total bases to Ohtani (320) and fourth in extra base hits (73). Runs created above average is a cumulative stat and his 24.3 were good for eighth in the AL, putting him in that upper tier of hitters across the league in terms of overall offensive impact. He saved 13.3 runs on defense according to Fangraphs, and none of the seven players on that list saved more than Julio Rodriguez's 5.1. It's the most well-rounded profile in the AL MVP race.

Others

RHP Gerrit Cole (Yankees): 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 222/48 K/BB in 209 IP
RHP Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, 237/55 K/BB in 185 IP

RHP Sonny Gray (Twins): 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, 183/55 K/BB in 184 IP

OF Julio Rodriguez (Mariners): 32 HR, .275/.333/.485, 37 SB, 126 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR in 155 games
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals): 30 HR, .276/.319/.495, 49 SB, 115 WRC+, 5.7 fWAR in 158 games

National League MVP

Winner: OF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 41 HR, .337/.416/.596, 73 SB, 170 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 159 games.
It's really so close between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Mookie Betts. Acuña was the better hitter, but not by much. He was also the better baserunner, but his caught stealings eat some of the value from his 73 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Betts' average defense soundly clears Acuña's well below average defense. The counting stats are of course incredible for Acuña, who not only became the first player with 40 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season, but also put up the first 40-60 and the first 40-70 season in baseball history. Additionally, he played in all but three games for the Braves, while Betts missed ten games for the Dodgers, and that little bit is enough to give Acuña the tiebreaker. He led the NL in virtually everything, including plate appearances (735), runs scored (149), hits (217), stolen bases, on-base percentage, OPS (1.012), total bases (383), wOBA (.428), wRC+, and fWAR. In fact, the 149 runs scored are the third highest single season total since integration, behind only 2000 Jeff Bagwell (152) and 1949 Ted Williams (150). Especially incredible given his high octane style of play is that he never slumped this season, never posting an OPS below .917 in any month and really turning on the jets as the season closed, slashing .343/.407/.714 in September to seal up the MVP race. Acuña put on a show at the plate, put on a show on the bases and was there performing every single day for Atlanta.

Runner-up: OF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 39 HR, .307/.408/.579, 14 SB, 167 wRC+, 8.3 fWAR in 152 games.
Mookie Betts just misses behind Ronald Acuña despite being a better defender and nearly as good a hitter. It was perhaps the most all-around balanced performance in the country, as he didn't lead the NL any single individual stat, nothing, but still put up over eight wins above replacement. He started slowly, hitting just .232/.339/.424 through his first 26 games, but heated up as the season wore on. He was hitting .277/.383/.560 at the end of July, which is very solid but not quite MVP caliber, then went on a tear to hit .455/.516/.839 in the month of August, thrusting himself into the NL MVP race right alongside Acuña. Unfortunately he couldn't quite keep up with his Atlanta counterpart in the stretch run, but it's still a pretty incredible season. He hit for power, coming one big fly short of a 40 homer/40 double season, got on base at a high rate, rarely struck out, ran the bases well, and played a solid right field.

Honorable mention: 1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 29 HR, .331/.410/.567, 23 SB, 163 wRC+, 7.9 fWAR in 161 games.
All year it was Acuña vs Freeman in the NL MVP race, so when Betts caught fire in August and Acuña closed things out with a strong September, Freeman's merely "solid" finish to the season (.296/.382/.481 in September/October) put him just behind. Still, this is one of the more unique seasons we've seen from a first baseman recently. Playing in all but one game, he put up a 20-20-.400 (HR/SB/OBP) season that's rarely seen from a first baseman, in this case not since Paul Goldschmidt did it twice back to back in 2015 and 2016, and before that, Jeff Bagwell in 1996, 1997, and 1999. Additionally, his 59 doubles tied 2000 Todd Helton for the highest single season total since integration in 1947. Freddie was an on base and extra base hit machine in 2023, and even though he deservedly gets dinged for playing first base, he was a solid defender there and his 23 stolen bases led his position. It was a pretty cool season to watch from the veteran in his fourteenth season. He just beats out Matt Olson, whose 54 home runs were nothing to shake your finger at (while playing in all 162 games to boot), but Freeman was a better defender, a better baserunner, and got on base at a higher clip.

Others
1B Matt Olson (Braves): 54 HR, .283/.389/.604, 1 SB, 160 wRC+, 6.6 fWAR in 162 games
OF Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): 25 HR, .285/.362/.506, 54 SB, 133 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 155 games
OF Juan Soto (Padres): 35 HR, .275/.410/.519, 12 SB, 155 wRC+, 5.5 fWAR in 162 games
SS Francisco Lindor (Mets): 31 HR, .254/.336/.470, 31 SB, 121 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 160 games

American League Cy Young

Winner: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 15-4, 2.63 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.17 FIP, 222/48 K/BB in 209 innings.
It took until the end of the season for a pitcher to step forward and take control of the AL Cy Young race, but Gerrit Cole made it happen with a torrid stretch that saw him go 5-0 with a 1.29 ERA and a 52/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 48.2 innings in his final seven starts of the season. In the end, that helped him lead all AL pitchers in innings pitched, ERA, and WHIP, three of the most important traditional stats, while finishing third in strikeouts and fourth in FIP. Additionally, he did so while pitching in a hitter-friendly home park (where his ERA was half a run higher than on the road) and in an extremely competitive AL East. That all points to a pretty clear-cut Cy Young case, though I will note that he had strong defense behind him that recorded six outs above average and helped him outperform his xwOBA by .033, with a .256 real mark against a .289 expected mark. There's a debate nowadays with the advent of expected statistics whether we should consider what a player "could have" done with different defensive outcomes, and while there's merit to that, I still lean towards rewarding what actually happened. It can be a tiebreaker, which you'll see with the next two names, but I won't let it take an award away from Gerrit Cole when he very much earned it.

Runner-up: RHP Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Stat line: 12-9, 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, 237/55 K/BB in 185 innings.

It was really, really close between Kevin Gausman and Sonny Gray for second place on this list. I went back and forth multiple times. Gray gets Gausman in ERA, WHIP, and FIP. Gausman struck out 54 more batters while throwing one more inning. Looking behind them, Gray pitched in front of a terrible Twins defense while Gausman was helped by a good Blue Jays defense. Though Gausman didn't really need that defense, because he had all those strikeouts and also gave up many of his runs via the home run, unlike Gray. However, looking at the difference between wOBA and xwOBA (i.e., how "unlucky" each pitcher was), Gray was actually more "lucky" than Gausman despite having a worse defense. So where does that leave us? Pretty much in a tie if you ask me. And I'll give the tie to Gausman because he pitched in a tougher division in the AL East, while Gray pitched for the best team in an extraordinarily weak AL Central. Should he get dinged for that, probably not, but I'm really looking for something to separate the two and I'm going to use it. Now looking to Gausman alone, he really had a tremendous season. His 237 strikeouts led the American League, as did his 5.3 fWAR, while his 2.97 FIP was second only to Gray. He allowed four or fewer runs in 27 of his 31 starts, almost always putting the Blue Jays in a position to win.

Honorable mention: RHP Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins.
Stat line: 8-8, 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, 183/55 K/BB in 184 innings.
I may have Sonny Gray a sliver of a hair behind Gausman, but he had a tremendous season. He led the AL in FIP and put up the second best ERA in the league despite pitching in front of a bad defense, making for the best year of his career. He allowed three or fewer runs in 29 of his 32 starts, outdoing Gausman in that regard with his consistency, though he did average fewer than six innings per start. Otherwise, there's not much to say here that I didn't say in Gausman's column.

Others
RHP Pablo Lopez (Twins): 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.33 FIP, 234/48 K/BB in 194 innings
RHP Zach Eflin (Rays): 3.50 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.01 FIP, 186/24 K/BB in 177.2 innings
RHP George Kirby (Mariners): 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 172/19 K/BB in 190.2 innings
RHP Luis Castillo (Mariners): 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.81 FIP, 219/56 K/BB in 197 innings
RHP Kyle Bradish (Orioles): 2.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 168/44 K/BB in 168.2 innings

National League Cy Young

Winner: LHP Blake Snell, San Diego Padres.
Stat line: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.44 FIP, 234/99 K/BB in 180 innings.
Look, I can point to lots of advanced statistics that show that Blake Snell wasn't the best pitcher in the National League in 2023, and many of them are very real. He pitched in front of an elite Padres defense, outperformed his xwOBA by 34 points (.300 expected vs .266 real), and was incredibly lucky to strand 86.7% of his baserunners, by far the highest number in all of baseball (Gerrit Cole was second at 80.4%). That last number, let's face it, carries luck as a major factor. For all those reasons, you can galaxy brain yourself into picking someone else in the Cy Young. However, this is an award about what really happened, and at the end of the day, Snell got the job done. Yeah, he was lucky to leave all those guys on base, but there is something to being able to bear down and not let things compound. That led to a 2.25 ERA that led the NL by 0.73, a tremendous margin. Sure, his defense helped him a lot, but nobody came close to keeping runs off the board like Snell did. His 234 strikeouts were also good for second in the league, and the guy ahead of him had an ERA more than a run and a half higher. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 30 of his 32 starts and didn't allow four or more in a start after May 19th. In fact, in those final 23 starts, he went 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, the best pitcher in baseball for four and a half months.

Runner-up: RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves.
Stat line: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.85 FIP, 281/58 K/BB in 186.2 innings.
After Snell (and really including Snell), the rest of the NL Cy Young race is extremely wide open. There are about five names I could put here and feel good about. I'll go with Strider, in no small part because striking out 281 batters in under 190 innings is just incredible. Not just the highest total in the majors, it's the most strikeouts in a season since Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander struck out 326 and 300, respectively, in 2019. And interestingly enough, it's the highest single season total ever for a pitcher who threw fewer than 212 innings – and Strider did it in just 186.2. If you're looking for the next highest total for a pitcher in under 200 innings, that belongs to 2016 Jose Fernandez at 253 in tragically his final season. But the strikeouts aren't just a nice number to look at. It helped him register the lowest FIP in the league, more than a full run lower than his ERA, and while pitching wins don't really matter, winning twenty games is extremely uncommon nowadays. He pitched in front of a mediocre Braves defense that hurt him a bit on balls in play, leading to more baserunners than he could have had, and his 70.3% strand rate (remember that Snell was at 86.7%) means that he was at least partially unlucky that he couldn't spread out his baserunners.

Honorable Mention: RHP Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies.
Stat line: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.15 FIP, 212/39 K/BB in 192 innings.
Zack Wheeler's profile is very similar to Spencer Strider, if a touch less extreme. While he didn't strike out as many batters, his 212/39 strikeout to walk ratio was actually a touch better than Strider's 281/58, while he also slightly cleared him in ERA and WHIP and fell a touch behind in FIP. He did all this while pitching in front of a terrible Phillies defense that seriously inflated his ERA and WHIP, and he similarly struggled to keep runners from scoring on the rare occasions they reached base. In all, he actually led all MLB Pitchers in fWAR at 5.9, which isn't a huge total but was enough to push to the forefront in a season where no pitcher separated himself in either league. While the 3.61 ERA wasn't great (hurt by poor defense behind him and hits tending to clump together), he was extremely consistent and always gave the Phillies a chance to win, allowing four or fewer earned runs in 30/32 starts.

Others
RHP Logan Webb (Giants): 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.16 FIP, 194/31 K/BB in 216 innings.

LHP Justin Steele (Cubs): 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 3.02 FIP, 176/36 K/BB in 173.1 innings.
RHP Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks): 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3.27 FIP, 220/47 K/BB in 210 innings.

RHP Kodai Senga (Mets): 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.64 FIP, 202/77 K/BB in 166.1 innings.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (Marlins): 3.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.55 FIP, 208/55 K/BB in 178.2 innings.

American League Rookie of the Year

Winner: 3B Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
Stat line: 28 HR, .255/.325/.489, 10 SB, 123 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR in 150 games.
Gunnar Henderson got off to a bit of a slow start, hitting just .170/.341/.310 into mid-May, but he turned on the jets and hit .274/.321/.528 with 25 home runs and a 131 wRC+ over 117 games from that point on, with his 4.2 fWAR in that span putting him seventh in the AL. Once he shook off that slump, he hit for power, he got on base at a decent clip, and he played solid defense at third base. That's about as well-rounded a profile as you're going to get from a kid who didn't turn 22 until halfway through the season. There were a lot of very good rookies in the AL this year, but none could quite match Henderson's standing as an All Star-caliber regular.

Runner-up: RHP Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Stat line: 10-4, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.52 FIP, 141/45 K/BB in 142 innings.
Gunnar Henderson may have the Rookie of the Year award wrapped up, but Tanner Bibee was truly exceptional in his rookie season in Cleveland making it closer than you'd think. In a year where we have Cy Young contenders posting ERA's in the mid three's, Tanner Bibee got his under three while finishing second among all AL rookies in innings pitched behind Hunter Brown. He allowed three or fewer earned runs in 23 of his 25 starts, meaning only twice all year did he leave a start where he didn't put the Guardians in a very good position to win the game. He was helped by a pretty good defense behind him, but overall we saw borderline ace-caliber stuff from the 24 year old this season.

Honorable mention: C Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros
Stat line: 23 HR, .282/.308/.538, 0 SB, 127 wRC+, 2.0 fWAR in 104 games.

It's hard to find catchers who can hit. The Astros have been rolling with Martin Maldonado, his elite glove, and his mediocre bat and continue to do so, but in 2023, they got a great complement in Yainer Diaz. He only played 104 games, but he blasted 23 home runs and put up a 127 wRC+ that was sixth among all MLB catchers with at least 300 plate appearances, rookie or not. He started slow, hitting .217/.242/.317 over his first 21 games, but turned it around to slash .295/.322/.583 the rest of the way as one of the best hitting catchers in the game once he got his feet wet. Beyond the bat, Diaz is one of the better catch and throw backstops in the game, controlling the running game and saving his pitchers from passed balls, though his overall defensive stats did get dinged for poor framing. Still, the framing and perhaps an aggressive approach were the only holes in his profile this year.

Others

RHP Yennier Cano (Orioles): 2.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.84 FIP, 65/13 K/BB in 72.2 innings.

2B Edouard Julien (Twins): 16 HR, .263/.381/.459, 3 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 109 games.
3B Josh Jung (Rangers): 23 HR, .266/.315/.467, 1 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 122 games.

RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles): 4.35 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 3.93 FIP, 129/49 K/BB in 122 innings.

RHP Bryce Miller (Mariners): 4.32 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.98 FIP, 119/26 K/BB in 131.1 innings.

National League Rookie of the Year

Winner: OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Stat line: 25 HR, .285/.362/.506, 54 SB, 133 wRC+, 6.0 fWAR in 155 games.
Corbin Carroll put together one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory. Playing in nearly every game for the Diamondbacks, he finished second in all of baseball with 54 stolen bases while adding 25 home runs, 30 doubles, and ten triples, making for arguably the best power/speed combination in the game behind Ronald Acuña Jr. Not only that, but by getting on base at a .362 clip, he was more or less the complete hitter and put himself into down ballot MVP consideration. One of the fastest runners in the game, his big time speed helped him overcome some otherwise rough edges in his defensive game and play a solid center field as well. All together, his 6.0 fWAR were the most of any rookie not just in 2023, but since Aaron Judge put up 8.8 in 2017. There are other NL rookies that put up standout seasons, but Carroll's stands out above the rest. 

Runner-up: RHP Kodai Senga, New York Mets
Stat line: 2.98 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.63 FIP, 202/77 K/BB in 166.1 innings.
You could argue Kodai Senga was the best rookie pitcher in baseball this year, holding an ERA under 3.00 while qualifying for the ERA title, a rarity nowadays, and striking out over 200 even if he was a bit wild. Even more impressive is that ERA's were up among the best pitchers in the game this year, so Senga's 2.98 mark was fifth in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. He got better and better as the season moved along and didn't allow more than three runs in a start after June 23rd. These days, there are fewer and fewer reliable, durable starting pitchers who can keep runs off the board and stay on the mound, and Senga provided one in his first go around.

Honorable mention: CF James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 23 HR, .248/.353/.437, 16 SB, 118 wRC+, 4.4 fWAR in 151 games.
It's hard to be quiet on a national brand like the Dodgers, but James Outman quietly put up one of the best seasons of any rookie in either league. Playing in 151 games, he blasted 23 home runs, walked at a high rate to push his OBP up over .350, swiped a few bags, and played standout defense in center field. In all, that's an elite defensive center fielder that was an 18% better hitter than league average and played almost every game, not too shabby for a rookie. Of course, this stat probably means nothing due to the small sample size, but he was one of the more "clutch" hitters in the game this year slashing .378/.472/.822 with five home runs in 53 plate appearances in the ninth inning or later.

Others
LF Nolan Jones (Rockies): 20 HR, .297/.389/.542, 20 SB, 135 WRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 106 games.
RHP Bobby Miller (Dodgers): 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.51 FIP, 119/32 K/BB in 124.1 innings.
1B Spencer Steer (Reds): 23 HR, .271/.356/.464, 15 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR in 156 games.
C Francisco Alvarez (Mets): 25 HR, .209/.284/.437, 2 SB, 97 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 123 games.
SS Matt McLain (Reds): 16 HR, .290/.357/.507, 14 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 89 games.

The top 12 unsigned high school hitting prospects from the 2023 draft

We recently took a look at the top twelve pitching prospects to reach campus, so now we'll pivot to the position players. This group is led by Roch Cholowsky, the best unsigned prospect in the entire draft at any position or level not only of the 2023 draft, but of the last two drafts. He leads a trio of UCLA-bound bats, making the Bruins the only program to place more than one name on this list. That helps the dying Pac-12 lead the way with five players overall, ahead of the SEC (4), ACC (2), and Big 12 (1). Unlike with the pitchers, we couldn't sneak any mid majors onto this list, with eleven of the twelve players heading to traditional powerhouses save for Kevin Takeuchi and his Southern California commitment. Six top one hundred overall prospects grace this list overall, with profiles spread everywhere from outlier athletes to teenagers with grown man strength to long term performers on the showcase circuit.

Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#34) SS Roch Cholowsky, UCLA.
Not only will UCLA bring in the #5 incoming pitching prospect and lead all schools with three names on this list, but they also get the top overall prospect in Roch Cholowsky. To me, Cholowsky is a really special player. A premium athlete to say the least, he is also a standout quarterback that generated rumblings that he could suit up for the UCLA football team as well, but that did not end up being the case and he'll stick with baseball. The athleticism immediately stands out on defense, where he effortlessly glides around the infield with loose, natural movements. He's plenty comfortable throwing off balance and from different angles, and with an above average arm, he's a plus defender overall that will stick at shortstop. While the bat isn't the calling card yet, it's coming along and I believe he'll eventually be an impact player. He naturally drops the barrel to the ball and makes plenty of contact against advanced pitching, and while his approach is fairly aggressive, it's still under control. He's currently hit over power, as his wiry 6'2" frame still has room to add more strength. Still, his loose right handed swing looks conducive to adding power as he fills out and learns to incorporate his lower half a bit better, and I think he could eventually be an above average hitter with average power. Throw in plus speed, and that's a really attractive all around profile. The Phoenix-area native also shows nice all-around polish as the son of Reds scout Dan Cholowsky, further adding to my optimism that he's going to continue trending up at UCLA. I'm buying into the athleticism and trajectory here and while he'll have to battle with fellow incoming blue chip prospect Roman Martin for the shortstop role, I think he'll quickly take over an every day role somewhere on the infield in Westwood.

2. (#56) 3B Trent Caraway, Oregon State.
Oregon State has quietly gotten very good at pulling recruits through to campus. A year after bringing in 2022's #69 overall prospect Gavin Turley, they'll pair him with another huge bat in 2023's #56 overall prospect Trent Caraway. Caraway brings the kind of profile that should find its way into an every day role almost immediately, and in fact if I had my pick of every true freshman in the country for just their freshman season only, he's probably the one I'd want. He's a big, strong, physically developed kid at 6'2", 205 pounds, and that's not entirely surprising given that he's a full year older than the typical incoming freshman, set to turn 20 in March. He channels that strength into easy power, just flicking his wrists and sending the baseball impressive distances to all fields. While there are some moving parts in his swing that can get him a little tied up with higher velocity, he's a disciplined hitter that attacks the right pitches and has an excellent track record of performance, especially this spring in the competitive Southern California high school ranks. It's a pretty complete profile at the plate between the power and his track record of getting to it in games, part of the reason he'll likely be a fixture in the Oregon State lineup from day one. With heavier feet and average speed, his future is likely at third base, where he has plenty of arm to profile. Caraway will be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025, where he'll be older than many of the juniors in his draft class, so it may be a short stay in Corvallis.

3. (#75) OF Will Gasparino, Texas.
Roch Cholowsky isn't the only son of a scout that will hit campus with a lot of fanfare. Billy Gasparino is the scouting director for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and his son Will will give Texas a shot in the arm as it already brings back the top two unsigned college players from last year's draft. The next in a long line of talent that has come through the Harvard-Westlake School in Hollywood Hills, including such names as Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Max Fried, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Drew Bowser, Gasparino has extremely loud tools that will immediately stand out in Austin. Standing a lanky 6'6", he uses his long arms to generate huge bat speed and tremendous torque from his big right handed swing, leading to plus raw power already. With plenty more room to add additional strength, we could be talking about double plus power in time. At this point, the power plays down a little in games because he's a very streaky hitter whose long swing can cause swing and miss, though he can get hot and run into more than his fair share of barrels even against quality pitching. He's entering into a very strong player development program at Texas, which should be able to put the pieces together into a big time impact bat. Gasparino has clocked plus run times as well, giving him a shot to compete for the center field spot vacated by Eric Kennedy (Royals, undrafted). With right fielder Dylan Campbell (Dodgers, fourth round) also gone, his arm will put him in contention for that role as well. Between the size, power, and speed, the raw tools here are huge. If the Longhorn coaching staff can help him get more consistent and grow into his lanky frame, he has a chance to do special things in Austin.

4. (#86) OF Caden Sorrell, Texas A&M.
Heading about ninety miles east, Texas A&M is also bringing in one of the best bats in the freshman class and getting him from in state to boot. Caden Sorrell was one of the top performers in the state of Texas this past spring, showcasing an all-around elevated game up at Flower Mound Marcus High School in the DFW Metroplex. He's very physical at 6'3", 195 pounds, with more room to tack on additional strength. He uses a compact left handed swing to produce above average power to all fields, power which he tapped consistently in games as a high school senior. The swing can get a little more line drive oriented, but he moves well in the box and should continue to leave the yard in games in College Station. Because Sorrell is a bit of a late rising prospect, he does not have a long track record of performance against higher end pitching including in the summer of 2022 before his senior season. That leaves mostly his body of work as a high school senior as the positive argument for his hit tool, and DFW pitching is not too shabby at all. He has a chance to be a real impact bat in the middle of the Aggie lineup, but it might take a minute for him to break through. The Texas A&M outfield lost a couple seniors to graduation, but they're also bringing in two of the best outfield transfers in the country in Braden Montgomery (Stanford) and Hayden Schott (Columbia) to replace them, so at bats may be hard to come by in the early going. Working in Sorrell's favor are his plus speed and arm, which will enable him to slot in anywhere in the Aggie outfield and provide positive value there. Even if he doesn't play immediately, once he forces his way into that lineup, he'll be a huge addition that will contribute in many different facets.

5. (#92) SS Dylan Cupp, Mississippi State.
Unlike Caden Sorrell, Dylan Cupp comes to Mississippi State with an extremely long track record of performance on the national stage. He hasn't always set the world on fire, and his senior season more "met" expectations than exceeded them, but either way he'll be able to jump right in against SEC pitching and feel as comfortable as you can expect for a true freshman. Cupp stands out first for his defense. His hands and feet are lightning quick in the dirt, showing exceptional body control and hand-eye coordination to act as a vacuum over there at shortstop. His above average arm will keep him at that position at Mississippi State, and he has a chance to be one of the better defenders in the SEC over the next few seasons. While he's no slouch at the plate, the tools aren't as loud there. His quick hands play up in the box, enabling him to whip the barrel through the zone and create more power than you'd expect from his skinny 6'2" frame. Cupp has strong feel for the barrel and will be able to find it early and often at Mississippi State, though there are times when he can get too steep and miss underneath, leading to some minor strikeout concerns. If he fills out his frame a bit more, he has a chance to be a very solid hitter, which when combined with his glove, will make him a very interesting prospect. If not, the Northwest Georgia native still has plenty enough glove to profile near the bottom of the Bulldog order.

6. (#94) OF/WR Grant Gray, UCLA.
I mentioned that Roch Cholowsky was rumored as a potential QB at UCLA, but he may not even be the best football player in the baseball team's incoming freshman class. Grant Gray, as it turns out, earned a roster spot as a wide receiver for the Bruins, though he hasn't gotten into a game yet. Of course, baseball scouts have long known Gray for his athleticism and ultra projectable 6'3" frame, but it was his senior year of baseball that really made them sit up and consider him a potential future impact player. His long, strong arms and legs help him create a ton of leverage in his right handed swing, so as he gets into that UCLA player development pipeline he has a real chance to create above average or even plus raw power in time. Like Caden Sorrell, he's unproven against higher level pitching in this case because he's been busy playing football, but he showed very well against strong Southern California high school pitching this past spring and looks up to the task of handling Pac-12 then Big Ten pitching. His football commitments may continue to slow down his baseball development, and his rawness does show in games. That translates over to defense, where he'll have to move off the infield upon getting into baseball season and develop as an outfielder. As a Power Five wide receiver, his elite speed will give him every shot to stick in center field, helping give the Bruins more reason to get him into the lineup. It's hard to find this combination of power, speed, and athleticism, giving him massive upside if UCLA can develop his swing and sand down the rough edges in his profile. Gray is extremely old for an incoming freshman having turned 19 back in May, so he'll be draft-eligible again as a sophomore in 2025 and still may be fairly raw at that point. It may not be until he gives up football that the Norco native fully takes the step forward he's looking for.

7. (#103) C Zion Rose, Louisville.
Zion Rose has a chance to build on what's turning into a real catching pipeline at Louisville, which has recently produced All Star Will Smith, 2021 first overall pick Henry Davis, and 2022 second rounder Dalton Rushing. While he has a ways to go in terms of his development, he absolutely has the upside to join that list. Rose carries as explosive a bat as you're going to find, producing tremendous bat speed from a grown man's 6'1", 210 pound frame. While he doesn't tap it often in games yet, there is potential plus-plus raw power in there given his strength and bat speed. At this point, the swing is disjointed as he gets his foot down early before flinging the barrel through the zone, often pulling off or getting too steep with a stiff overall operation. At Louisville, he'll look to smooth that out and find a more natural rhythm in the box, hopefully helping him create a more adjustable barrel and make more consistent, flush contact. The Chicago native does take strong at bats and can handle advanced pitching, and with that bat speed, he can do plenty of damage today even when he doesn't square the ball up. Unlike most catchers, Rose has flashed plus run times and shows tremendous athleticism behind the plate. Similar to his hitting, the physical tools are ahead of the polish defensively. While he doesn't have the cleanest exchange and release, his cannon arm makes up for a bit of a double clutch and helps him gun runners down. Many evaluators think he could move to center field in the long run, where his speed and arm will play great, but by going to college, he'll have a chance to refine his blocking and receiving to potentially prove he could stick back there. There are some similarities to Henry Davis in this profile, though Davis had a bit more of a balanced offensive profile and of course built up an elite track record of performance.

8. (#105) SS Roman Martin, UCLA.
Roman Martin continues an elite recruiting class for UCLA, though unlike Roch Cholowsky and Grant Gray, he has not been in contact with head football coach Chip Kelly as far as I know. While he's just focused on baseball, he does bring an elite track record of performance as long as any name on this list. It's interesting to contrast him to Cholowsky especially since they play the same position and will both battle to first push Cody Schrier off of shortstop, or once he gets drafted highly in 2024, take over. Cholowsky is a much better athlete with higher upside on both sides of the ball, while Martin is more of a steady eddy that has gotten the job done day in and day out. He has a quick right handed swing with strong pitch recognition ability and a long track record of sending line drives out to all fields against quality competition. The power is fringy for now, but at 6'2", he has a chance to grow into average pop as he fills out his skinny frame. He should take well to Pac-12 pitching immediately in the conference's swan song this coming spring. Meanwhile, he's a sure handed defender at shortstop whose instincts and natural grace at the position help him play above his average speed, giving him every opportunity to beat out the more athletic Cholowsky for the shortstop position should both of their bats qualify. I'm certainly higher on Cholowsky (as is most of the industry) in the long run due to his upside but in the immediate future in Westwood, it will be fun to see the two of them battle it out and potentially make up one of the best double play combos in college baseball.

9. (#128) IF Kevin Takeuchi, Southern California.
In 2021, Southern Cal landed the top overall recruit in the country, Marcelo Mayer, but he went fourth overall to the Red Sox and of course wasn't going to turn that down. Two years later, they managed to pull another highly touted infielder from the San Diego area through to campus, and even if he's not quite the prospect Mayer was, Kevin Takeuchi has a chance to leave his mark in Los Angeles. He's undersized at 5'10", but came out looking more physical this past spring and put together a huge senior season to match, elevating his profile. He has a quick right handed swing geared for hard line drives and shows more power than you'd expect from his smaller frame, with the ability to turn on the ball for above average power to his pull side. With a strong eye at the plate, he's able to unleash that powerful swing more often by choosing good pitches he can do damage on. It's a pretty well-rounded offensive profile even if he lacks the upside or track record of some other names on this list. The defensive tools are average, with enough arm to make third base work and enough range to make it work at second base, at least at the collegiate level. The overall profile is a bit reminiscent of Tommy Troy, another highly touted prep infielder from California who hit .338/.411/.603 with 34 home runs over a three year career at Stanford en route to being drafted twelfth overall in 2023 by the Diamondbacks (though I'd note that Takeuchi is a more disciplined hitter at this stage of his career).

10. (#130) SS Braden Holcomb, Vanderbilt.
Braden Holcomb may not break into the Vanderbilt starting lineup immediately, especially considering they return three quarters of last year's starting infield and are bringing in two impact infield transfers to boot, but he has a chance to become a real impact player once he does earn playing time. Holcomb immediately stands out among his peers with a physically developed 6'4", 220 pound frame that looks like it could have him playing in the big leagues today. He takes big swings from the right side and his strength helps him tap plus power in games playing to all fields. To this point, he has been inconsistent at the plate and has struggled at times against higher quality pitching, but he did look better this spring against good pitching in the Orlando area. He may not immediately be up for the challenge of hitting SEC pitching every day, but like I mentioned, it's already a crowded infield situation in Nashville and he'll have time to iron things out. A shortstop in high school, he likely won't stick at that position for Vanderbilt and certainly won't in pro ball, with heavy feet and a big frame that will push him to third base, where his plus arm will play. Holcomb has a chance to hit in the middle of the Vanderbilt lineup and provide some of the best power they've seen in recent years.

11. (#146) C Ryder Helfrick, Arkansas.
Arkansas did not get much offense from the catcher's position last year, but they'll go into 2024 set up much better. Not only did Hudson White transfer in from Texas Tech with his .296/.397/.550 line from a year ago, but the Razorbacks are also bringing in the #2 freshman catching prospect in the country behind Louisville's Zion Rose. Like Rose, Ryder Helfrick is a bit raw at this point but he also brings big time upside. He has extremely quick hands in the box, translating to great bat speed and above average power from the right side. His quick hands help him catch up to velocity with ease, which should ease his transition to the SEC, though he's still learning to recognize offspeed. The Northern California native can also get passive at the plate at times and lose control of his at bats, something he'll need to tighten up in Fayetteville. With his electric hands and compact strength, Helfrick has the tools to be an impact bat for the Razorbacks. The profile is similar behind the plate, as his athleticism and above average arm give him considerable upside on that side of the ball as well. He does need refinement in that regard and could see time in the outfield while he develops his receiving and blocking skills. Interestingly, he won't be the only blue chip prospect heading to Arkansas from Northern California, joining Gabe Gaeckle, the #15 pitching prospect nationally on his way to campus.

12. (#158) OF Drew Burress, Georgia Tech.
Drew Burress rounds out this list, and he does so as another powderkeg athlete with considerable raw tools. The shortest player on this list at 5'9", he doesn't let that stop him from putting on a show in games. He takes big, uppercut hacks from the right side, with his natural athleticism helping him translate that rotational force into big time bat speed and leverage. The exit velocities are much higher than you'd expect from a kid that size, and with his ability to elevate with authority, he could tap above average power in games in the ACC. With that power-conscious approach does come swing and miss, especially against offspeed stuff to the point where I'm a bit concerned about his initial transition to ACC pitching. He has performed well against premium velocity throughout his prep career despite the big swing, so it's an accurate barrel when you consider how hard he swings. In Atlanta, he may look to find more of a balanced approach, though at Georgia Tech they do like guys who can blast the ball. Beyond the power, he's an above average runner with a plus arm that will fit well into the Yellow Jacket outfield, with the chance to take over for Jake DeLeo in center field if he hits enough to start at the outset. Regardless, he'll likely develop into an all-around impact player in Atlanta.

Honorable Mentions
#165 UT Gavin Grahovac, Texas A&M
#170 2B Camden Kozeal, Vanderbilt
#171 OF/WR Duce Robinson, Southern California
#175 OF Easton Breyfogle, Arizona
#182 C Campbell Smithwick, Mississippi

The top 12 unsigned high school pitching prospects from the 2023 draft

The is the first time since I began making draft boards in 2015 that no high school pitcher in my top 50 prospects will be reaching campus. Guess NIL isn't as big of a draw as we thought it was. However, that doesn't mean we don't have a ton of talent reaching campus. Half of the names on this list have been clocked at 97 or higher already and five ranked in my top one hundred prospects. They're spread all around the country, with the top eleven names all going to different schools and only LSU pulling in a second pitcher right at the end. In the NIL era, it's also nice to see two mid major programs put names on this list in Dallas Baptist and Coastal Carolina, further establishing themselves as two of the preeminent mid major programs in the country. The SEC does still dominate this list with half of the names, while the ACC and the lame duck Pac-12 picked up two apiece.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#52) LHP Cam Johnson, Louisiana State.
LSU gets everything they want, don't they? After producing the top two picks in this past MLB Draft and, they'll get the top high school pitcher in the country to go unsigned. Similar to Dylan Crews three years ago, Cam Johnson will come to Baton Rouge from the Florida prep ranks, though he's originally a Maryland native. Johnson has massive stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touching 98 with hard run and sink. He shows an above average slider that misses plenty of bats, though his changeup is a distant third pitch to this point and needs further development. The 6'5", 240 pound lefty is extremely physical, already looking the part of a power SEC arm. He previously looked raw on the mound and struggled with command, but he came out in 2023 looking much more fluid and balanced to work closer to average in that regard. Johnson can still yank his release point a bit when he gets tired and the LSU staff will look to help keep him on the positive trajectory he had been on in that regard. Of note, the Washington, DC-area product did miss time at the end of the season with elbow trouble, which may have been what scared teams off from giving him the multi-million dollar signing bonus his talent warranted. Beyond the injury, given the primarily two pitch arsenal and his still-developing command, there also remains considerable relief risk that he'll want to shed as he settles in in Baton Rouge. The Tigers' pitching staff is always incredibly deep and he'll join a youth movement alongside many other former prep studs like Gavin Guidry, Jaden Noot, Chase Shores, and Jake Brown (also on this list), all of whom were famous high school pitching prospects.

2. (#57) RHP Joey Volchko, Stanford.
Stanford is known throughout the West Coast as one of toughest schools to sign kids away from, and in 2023 they picked up the top unsigned pitcher west of the Mississippi. Similar to Cam Johnson above him on this list, Joey Volchko brings a power arm and then some. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 for now, coming in with tough overhead angle and even more explosive riding action that makes it a plus pitch. Volchko can also rip through a breaking ball with the best of them, showing a distinct curveball and slider that both look like above average pitches. He was trending up hard after a huge spring season at Redwood High School in Visalia, with all of his stuff showing a little extra hop, and at Stanford it will immediately be enough to get Pac-12 (then ACC?) hitters out. For now, the 6'4" righty has a lot of movement in his delivery, using his long limbs heavily to generate explosion off the mound. That impacts his command at this point and leads to relief questions in the long run, but for now, Stanford will look to compose him a little more fluidly. There is true Friday night upside here, and the Central Valley has done Stanford well recently with names like Brock Jones (Clovis) and Malcolm Moore (Sacramento). The Cardinal also lost four pitchers in the draft in Quinn Matthews (Cardinals, 4th round), Ryan Bruno (Diamondbacks, 7th), Joey Dixon (Astros, 7th), and Drew Dowd (Rays, 8th), so Volchko will be a welcome addition to a program that always pitches well.

3. (#81) RHP Liam Peterson, Florida.
Florida is another school that never hurts for pitching depth, but Liam Peterson has the upside to step to the forefront of that lauded staff. While Cam Johnson and Joey Volchko had loud springs that pushed their stock up, Peterson is the opposite. A member of the most talented high school pitching staff in the country at Calvary Christian in Clearwater alongside Blue Jays (way over slot) fourth rounder Landen Maroudis and fellow top prospect/brand new Arkansas Razorback Hunter Dietz, he established himself as the top prospect of the bunch in the summer of 2022. At the time, he was up to 97 with his fastball with plenty of hop while showing an above average sweeping slider and a newer changeup he was developing. Extremely projectable at 6'5", he moved well on the mound and looked like he had all the ingredients to turn into a frontline starter. However, his 2023 spring was much more up and down as he looked to be overthrowing at times and his breaking ball got slurvy. While the command was never pinpoint, with his uptempo delivery in the spring his strikes were sporadic and he looked much more like a reliever than a starter. Still, Florida is excellent at developing pitching and should know exactly how to get the best out of him. He still has the arm strength and the projectable, athletic frame, so if he can calm that delivery back down and find more consistency with his offspeed stuff, he can absolutely become a Friday night starter in Gainesville.

4. (#90) LHP Adam Hachman, Arkansas.
Adam Hachman finds himself in a similar position to Liam Peterson on this list. Last summer, he established himself as one of the best left handed pitchers in the class, perhaps second only to eventual Marlins CBA pick Thomas White, who signed for first round money. When he's healthy and on, he shows one of the most electric operations in the class. The fastball was up to 99 over the summer with serious hop from a vertical slot, with big time arm speed promising that one day he could live closer to that peak more consistently. The curveball and changeup have always been a bit behind, still searching for their identities a bit, though the curveball flashes above average and the changeup shows signs of becoming a solid pitch in its own right. Ultra projectable at 6'5", he's a great athlete on the mound with a very elastic delivery, though he's still growing into his body and can yank his release point. Unfortunately, his spring went about as poorly as you could imagine. He came out of the gate looking much more rigid, with his fastball sitting closer to 90, his offspeed stuff losing the progress it had made over the summer, and his command backing up significantly. Soon we found out why, as he went down with Tommy John surgery in April and missed the rest of the season. That means he may not pitch at all in his true freshman season in Fayetteville either, but the upside is tremendous when he hopefully comes back fully healthy in 2025. If it was truly just the injury that was holding him back this spring, the St. Louis-area product could front the rotation by his draft year. The stock may be down right now, but we're still talking about an explosive 6'5" lefty that has touched 99 in the past, which does not come around every year.

5. (#97) RHP Justin Lee, UCLA.
Two years ago, UCLA got the top unsigned high schooler in the class, Gage Jump, to campus. Unfortunately injuries completely derailed his time in Westwood and he wound up throwing just 16.1 innings in his two seasons, then transferred to LSU this year like everybody else. Two years after pulling Jump through the draft, UCLA is getting another metric outlier pitcher to campus, also from the Southern California private school ranks. Justin Lee may not come in with quite the same fanfare, but he's very interesting. The fastball velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and touching 95, but that will tick up. Interestingly, it has near-perfect spin efficiency (meaning no spin is lost to gyro, or football-like, rotation) so as he adds velocity it will be very conducive to adding riding life. His splitter is his best offspeed pitch right now, diving off the plate and looking more advanced than the vast majority of prep changeups, while his slider is a tick behind but flashes some promise. The 6'3" righty moves extremely well on the mound, getting great extension and a low release while maintaining that extremely clean release contributing to that perfectly efficient fastball. I'd be very interested to see if the UCLA coaching staff decides to get creative with Lee, whose stuff works just a little differently than most other pitchers. He's very projectable and figures to add at least a few ticks of velocity as he fills out. The command is improving but it is still fringy for now, as he doesn't always repeat his delivery right and can get off line. If he can figure out his breaking ball and his command, he could come out a first round pick in three years.

6. (#110) RHP Chance Mako, North Carolina State.

One of the better prospects NC State has pulled through to campus in recent years, Chance Mako has a chance to do some special things in Raleigh even if he still has a few things to iron out. At his best, he already shows a low 90's fastball touching 96 with riding life while flashing above average with his slider and working in a tertiary changeup. At an extremely projectable 6'6", he figures to add a ton of strength in the near future as well, likely pushing the whole arsenal even further. However, there are some things he needs to work on. Presently, he tends to fade deeper into starts or into busy pitching schedules, losing a tick off his fastball and dipping closer to 90. While the slider is extremely promising and looks like it could be a plus pitch in time, it's presently very inconsistent and can get loopy. Mako needs to focus on filling out that massive frame, which will hopefully help him not only maintain but increase his peak velocity and become a true power pitcher. He's already made strides with his delivery, smoothing out most of the violence and becoming a better strike thrower in the process. The NC State coaching staff will want to continue to streamline him in that regard, and as he gets more consistent with his offspeed stuff in addition to his command, he could become the next Wolfpack ace. I like the way the Salisbury, NC native is trending and I think he'll be able to make the necessary adjustments to reach that ceiling and become an early pick in 2025, when he'll be just barely eligible as a sophomore.

7. (#114) RHP James Ellwanger, Dallas Baptist.
Dallas Baptist has turned itself into a real juggernaut lately as one of the best mid major programs in the country, and now we're starting to see them pull big time recruits through the draft. James Ellwanger is not too dissimilar a prospect to Chance Mako with a deeper arsenal and a tick less projection. His fastball velocity is currently all over the place, as he can touch 98 on his best days but can also dip into the upper 80's when he doesn't quite have it, though it's trending in the right direction. His slider is currently his best offspeed pitch, looking comfortably above average, while his distinct curveball is more of an average pitch and his promising splitter, although inconsistent, could be above average in time. Like Mako, he needs to grow into his large, 6'5" frame and maintain his fastball velocity a bit better, but he does have the benefit of more consistent offspeed stuff. At this point, his delivery can get a bit stiff at times, leading to fringy command, but he's athletic on the mound for the most part and that should get ironed out. Dallas Baptist just had six pitchers drafted and signed, an incredible feat for a school that does not compete at the Division I level for any other sport, giving him some room to earn meaningful innings quickly. He'll certainly want to do so because he's extremely old for an incoming freshman, already having turned 19 before he graduated high school, and he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025.

8. (#126) LHP Zane Adams, Alabama.
We'll stick in the far northern Houston suburbs with Zane Adams, who played high school ball in the same county as James Ellwanger and is two days from sharing a birthday with him. He reminds me a bit of a left handed Will Sanders, who was just drafted by the Cubs in the fourth round out of South Carolina in this past draft, and even a natural, median progression at Alabama could make him a similar prospect in three years. Adams presently sits in the low 90's, touching 95 with some downhill plane and moderate life. Like Sanders, who also works downhill, he stands out more for his offspeed stuff than his heater. The Porter, Texas native has great feel for his above average curveball, effectively locating it to both sides of the plate. That's a separator for a high school lefty. He also shows off a quality changeup, giving him a very advanced three pitch mix from the left side. Adams is very projectable at 6'4" with a springy, athletic delivery, though he's still learning to keep it in sync consistently. His overall command is average despite his strong ability to spot his curveball. Adams is an advanced lefty that should be able to grab innings quickly in Tuscaloosa, and like Ellwanger, he'll certainly want to do so because he turned 19 as a high school senior and will be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2025.

9. (#131) RHP Cameron Flukey, Coastal Carolina.
For the second year in a row, Coastal Carolina will land a huge pitching recruit from this list. A year ago, they brought down Levi Huesman from the Richmond area after he ranked #110 on my list, though he struggled to a 9.36 ERA as a freshman and transferred to Vanderbilt for his sophomore season. They'll hope for better with Cameron Flukey, a very, very different prospect from Huesman. At this point, Flukey needs a lot of work and might not immediately take on a big role as Coastal went largely untouched through the draft, though they did lose a pair of important lefties (Huesman and the Ole Miss-bound Liam Doyle) to the transfer portal. He touches sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with great riding action at best, velocity which is trending up quickly. His curveball is still searching for its identity a bit, showing nice power and depth at times but at others humping early out of his hand. The changeup is a bit firm at this point, but that's not uncommon for prep pitchers from the northeast. The 6'6" righty stands out most for his physicality, already having begun to fill out his towering frame with more room yet to go. He moves very well on the mound, getting great extension towards the plate and putting extra hop on his stuff in the process. The arm action is a bit long right now, impacting his command, and the Coastal Carolina pitching staff may look to shorten that up a bit to simplify things. There is a lot to like here and Flukey could turn into an ace for the Chanticleers.

10. (#132) LHP Ethan McElvain, Vanderbilt.
Chris McElvain had a nice career at Vanderbilt, working his way into the weekend rotation by his junior year and overall putting up a 4.33 ERA over 44 appearances (17 start) from 2020-2022. In 2022, he found himself drafted in the eighth round by the Reds and in 2023 worked his way up to High A. Now, his brother Ethan will look to continue the family legacy in Nashville and has a shot to be drafted even earlier than Chris in a few years. While Chris was a 6', 205 pound right hander, Ethan is a 6'4" lefty who brings louder stuff and more upside to Nashville. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, coming in with hard running action from a higher slot. His slider has steadily improved and now looks like an above average pitch, giving him a power two pitch mix to attack with. The changeup is a distant third pitch and certainly something he'll want to work on quickly when he gets to Vanderbilt. McElvain is very physical for his age with tons of arm strength and a durable frame. The delivery is a bit stiff at this time, but he doesn't have to work terribly hard to reach his velocity and he should be able to smooth that out a little in no time. If he can find a changeup and take the next step with his delivery, he has a workhorse starter profile that could work his way into Vanderbilt's crowded weekend rotation.

11. (#133) RHP Parker Detmers, Louisville.
Just like Ethan McElvain, Parker Detmers is also following a brother to school. Reid Detmers was untouchable during his sophomore and junior seasons at Louisville, went tenth overall to the Angels in 2020, reached the majors just a year later, and is now closing in on Chad Green as he looks to become the greatest pitcher ever to come out of the school. Those are massive shoes to fill, but Parker arrives on campus looking to establish his own legacy. Presently standing out more for his polish than his stuff, the stuff has begun to tick up and he's becoming a more complete prospect. The fastball has comfortably pushed above 90, now sitting in the low 90's and touching 94-95. Much like his brother, his curveball is his best pitch with sharp bite and grades out as plus. The changeup is coming along nicely as well, giving him a nice three pitch mix with a present strikeout pitch. The 6'4" righty repeats his clean, easy delivery very consistently, giving him above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff and boding well for his potential to earn innings quickly at Louisville. You'd still like to see the fastball gain another tick or two, but it's a really nice foundation coming in so he won't have to divert his focus too much. There is certainly louder stuff on this list, but Detmers is the most polished.

12. (#134) LHP Jake Brown, Louisiana State.
Right at the end, LSU will sneak in another pitcher and become the only school with two names on this list. Like Parker Detmers, he stands out more for his pitchability than his stuff, though he has the benefit of throwing left handed. The fastball presently sits around 90, touching 94 at peak and coming in with flat plane from a lower slot. He shows a solid average slider and changeup, so there's no standout pitch in this arsenal. However, he commands everything well to all four quadrants of the zone, including the offspeed stuff, the latter of which is not common for incoming freshmen. The slider is also particularly promising given his feel for it and it should be an above average pitch soon. Standing 6'2", he has some projection but he's a skinny kid that will likely always be on the thinner side, so he's certainly going to be leaning on that command and pitchability going forward. While his average physicality and explosiveness may limit his upside a bit, the polish will give him a shot to earn meaningful innings quickly even on a staff like LSU that figures to be absolutely loaded once again. The Lake Charles-area native will also get a chance to hit for his home state team, adding to his potential impact in Baton Rouge.

Honorable Mentions

#143 RHP Luke McNeillie, Florida
#159 LHP Colton Hartman, Louisville
#160 RHP Gabe Gaeckle, Arkansas
#168 RHP Cameron Tilly, Auburn
#173 RHP Cole Stokes, Oregon

The top 5 unsigned college prospects returning to school for 2024

Now that I have finally completed all thirty team by team draft reviews, it's time to look at the guys who didn't sign. We'll start with the college players, and only five from my whole draft list went unsigned, one less than last year. All five are pitchers, and they all have different reasons for returning. Two are coming off major injuries, two had inconsistent seasons, and most are on the younger side for the class giving them better prospects if they return. Interestingly, Texas has the top two names on this list. Last year, of the six college players on my draft list to go unsigned, four were drafted in the top one hundred picks this year (two by the Mets) led by Ty Floyd at pick #38 to the Reds, one fell to the eleventh round, and one was not eligible. That's a very nice track record and puts the five names below in a good spot.
Note, the ranking in parentheses denotes their ranking on my 2023 draft board.

1. (#93) RHP Tanner Witt, Texas.
Tanner Witt is a tough fish to reel in. He was the seventh best high school pitcher to reach campus after the pandemic after ranking #87 on my 2020 draft list, and now he's the highest ranking college player to return to school since #10 Kumar Rocker after the 2021 season. Upon reaching campus, he immediately became a key piece out of the Texas bullpen in 2021, then looked sharp in his first two starts of 2022 to push himself into very early discussions for the 2023 first round. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season, then returned in May of 2023. Before the injury, he had been 7-0 with a 2.91 ERA and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings, but after he returned this spring, he put up a 10.97 ERA and an 8/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings. Heading to the Cape Cod League to try to rebuild his stock before the draft, he continued to struggle with an 11.93 ERA and an 11/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 14.1 innings. For that reason, he turned down the Orioles in the eighteenth round and will return to Austin for his senior season. When healthy, Witt is a pretty complete starting pitching prospect. His fastball sits in the low 90's and has scraped as high as 97 in the past, coming in with nice riding life from a high release point. He has great feel for a big 12-6 curveball with great depth, while he also shows a solid slider and an above average changeup. The big 6'6" righty repeats his delivery very well and has long had above average control, exuding polish as an underclassman. The stuff was flatter in 2023 as he looked rusty coming back from surgery, and because of that he got hit hard. Witt's delivery already lacks deception with a unique double tap of the ball out of and back into the glove, giving hitters an extra look, and its lack of moving parts make it easy to track the ball even if it helps his command. Fortunately, the Houston native was very young for the 2023 class and will pitch his entire senior season at 21 years old, putting him just a little on the older side for the 2024 draft class but still more or less age appropriate. The son of former first baseman Kevin Witt, who had a nice year with the Tigers in 2003, Tanner has tremendous feel for pitching and a great head on his shoulders, fully understanding what he needs to do to become a better pitcher. Hopefully, he'll shake off the rust and push his way back into the top couple of rounds for the 2024 draft while leading the Longhorns to another competitive season in the Big 12 alongside Lebarron Johnson.

2. (#106) RHP Lebarron Johnson, Texas.
Tanner Witt isn't the only star pitcher heading back to Austin. While Witt is the more famous name due to his long history as a draft prospect, Lebarron Johnson may actually have more upside in the long run. He didn't pitch as a freshman in 2021, worked out of the bullpen in 2022, then was primarily a starter in 2023 as he posted a 2.91 ERA and a 98/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 86.2 innings. I'm definitely one of the high guys on Johnson. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, touching 98 with extreme downhill plane that gives him a unique look. His power slider gets into the low 90's and looks like a plus pitch, while his nasty splitter gives him another weapon. It's really, really loud stuff that you don't come by every day. To this point, the Jacksonville native has been inconsistent with his command, especially with his offspeed stuff, but he's trending in the right direction there. Going back to Texas will give him an opportunity to add a little more polish, and it would be nice to see him incorporate something softer into his arsenal as well so he can change speeds more effectively. Like Witt, he was on the younger end for the class and will only turn 22 during the 2024 College World Series, so he won't be crazy old for the 2024 class. Back at school for his redshirt junior season, he'll look to prove his ability to start long term and with Witt gives the Longhorns one of the better, more experienced one-two punches in the country.

3. (#185) RHP Terry Busse, Georgia Tech.
Terry Busse began his career at powerhouse John A. Logan JC in Illinois, then transferred to Georgia Tech as a junior. "Scary Terry" was untouchable to start the 2023 season, kicking off with 12 shutout innings on just five hits, one walk, and 23 strikeouts against such opponents as Georgia, Notre Dame, and Auburn. Unfortunately that was the high water mark for his draft stock, as he faded over the course of the season and had a 7.12 ERA the rest of the way, finishing with a 5.10 ERA and a 58/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.1 innings overall. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with run and sink, playing up further from a deceptive slot. The slider looks like a plus pitch at its best with late diving action, and when he's on, those two pitches are untouchable. Early in the season, he was locating both pitches to both sides of the plate and keeping hitters well off balance, but that unraveled later on as the command slipped. He's 65 pounds lighter and doesn't throw quite as hard, but the profile overall reminds me of Brusdar Graterol especially with the mechanics. Busse has a disjointed-looking delivery in which he picks up and drops his front leg quickly before pausing then planting and whipping his arm around. It's not pretty, but it effectively transfers energy from his lower half to his upper half. With two pitches, a funky delivery, and the way he faded down the stretch, it's a pure relief profile. He'll go back to Atlanta to prove he can hold his peak stuff over longer periods of time. Unlike Witt and Johnson above him on this list and Little below him, he's already on the older side and will pitch the entire 2024 season at 22 years old.

4. (#197) RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State.
As if LSU needs any more help, they're getting back one of the best unsigned college pitchers in the country. Christian Little's career has been a roller coaster ride, to say the least, so by returning to Baton Rouge he'll hope to right the ship and get his payday. One of the top high school pitchers in the entire country in 2021 earning top ten (!) buzz, he graduated early from Christian Brothers College High School in St. Louis to enroll at Vanderbilt as a 17 year old. Serving as the Commodore midweek starter in 2021, he worked mostly out of the bullpen in 2022 and decided to transfer to LSU in search of his breakout. The change of scenery unfortunately had the opposite effect and he posted a 7.79 ERA and a 42/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings, making for the worst season of his young career. However, he was one of the youngest players in the entire 2023 college class, not turning 20 until just before the draft at nearly two years younger than Terry Busse, who himself was age appropriate. So even though he's going back to school for his senior year, he'll still be very young for the 2024 class and will only turn 21 right around draft day. Little has nasty stuff at his best. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 98 with some ride, and he can take a little off to turn it into an upper 80's cutter. He has a sharp slider that looks above average at best, though it can blend into his fringier curveball at times. He also shows a decent changeup. The command was solid during his prep career, but he has never taken a step forward in that regard and now grades below average, causing all of his stuff to play down as he works from behind in the count. Standing 6'4", 225 pounds, he's very physical but his delivery can get rigid, which also works against his command, and he'll have to watch his conditioning going forward. Returning to LSU will give the young arm a chance to iron out the kinks in his delivery and get more consistent with his stuff, in which case he could shoot back up boards. The age is a huge boon for him in possibly being able to make that happen.

5. (#208) RHP Joseph Gonzalez, Auburn.
Joseph Gonzalez put up a great sophomore season in 2022, posting a 3.22 ERA and a 54/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, positioning himself as a potential top one hundred pick in 2023 entering the season. He showed well in his first start of 2023 against Indiana, tossing five shutout innings while allowing just three baserunners and picking up one strikeout, but he hurt his shoulder and hasn't seen the mound since. Shoulders injuries are about the most unpredictable injury a pitcher can get, so teams were naturally scared off by the fact that he hadn't pitched and weren't willing to roll the dice with the reasonably large signing bonus his talent would have earned him. So he'll head back to the Plains and look to prove his health in 2024. When healthy, Gonzalez sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 93-94 with running and sinking action. He has nice feel for both his low 80's slider and his above average changeup, though none stands out as a true strikeout pitch. Instead, the Puerto Rico native keeps hitters off balance by changing speeds and executing all three pitches to both sides of the plate with plus command, making him more of an old school pitching prospect in that regard. So long as he's healthy, he's a high floor type that looks like a high probability #4 or #5 starter in the long run, especially if he can add a tick of power to his stuff. However, the injury takes away that high floor, so it's hard to sell scouts on a low ceiling/low floor type. Showing that he's healthy and pounding the strike zone again in 2024 will get him back to the low ceiling/high floor type that typically does well early in day two.