Diamondbacks Add Quietly Good Alex Avila

Alex Avila: 14 HR, .264/.387/.447, 0 SB, 124 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR
2 years, $8.25 million, up to $500,000 in incentives

In an extremely competitive NL West, the Diamondbacks' roster could stack up with the other teams everywhere except behind the plate. Jeff Mathis is great defensively and even better when it comes to handling pitching staffs, but he can't hit, having never posted a wRC+ above 68 or a wOBA above .277. That is where Alex Avila comes in, coming off a very good rebound year in which he slashed .264/.387/.447 with 14 home runs in 112 games, good for a 124 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR. His success was partially driven off an extremely high .382 BABIP (versus a career .325 mark), but if you look closer, his big year was more about skill than about luck. Among hitters with at least 350 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs, his 48.7% hard hit rate was the second highest in baseball only to J.D. Martinez, while his 6.7% soft-hit rate was the lowest in baseball by more than three percentage points. His .395 xwOBA (compiled by Statcast, measuring what he conceivably should have hit based on his quality of contact) was the sixth highest in baseball, behind only such names as Aaron Judge (.441), J.D. Martinez (.423), Joey Votto (.421), Mike Trout (.417), and Nelson Cruz (.395) and one spot ahead of Freddie Freeman (.393). To sum up all the numbers and jargon, Avila very quietly hit the snot out of the ball. He also walked at a 16.5% rate, good for fifth in baseball behind only Votto, Judge, Trout, and Matt Carpenter. That's not a bad list. Of course, the downside to Avila is that this was his first season slugging over .400 since 2011, as he has been good about maintaining isolated power but has struggled to hit for average. Still, he always walks, and he is coming off the second best year of his career. Don't overlook what Avila can contribute to the Arizona offense. For his career, the Alabama alumnus has 87 home runs, a .243/.351/.401 slash line, and 14.4 fWAR over 852 games.

Royals, A's Make Four Player Swap

A's Get: Brandon Moss: 22 HR, .207/.279/.428, 2 SB, 84 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

Ryan Buchter: 4-3, 2.89 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65/26 K/BB, 65.1 IP

$3.25 million

Royals Get: Jesse Hahn: 3-6, 5.30 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 55/27 K/BB, 69.2 IP

Minor leaguer Heath Fillmyer: 11-5, 3.49 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 115/51 K/BB, 149.2 IP at AA

The Royals and A's made a mid-level trade, with no headliners changing teams but plenty of talent on the move. From the A's perspective, this trade adds both outfield and bullpen depth. Brandon Moss, who played in Oakland from 2012-2014, adds that depth in the outfield, having hit at least 19 home runs in each of the past six seasons. Nobody looks like they are guaranteed a starting spot in that outfield, as even Khris Davis could end up DHing a fair amount, and Moss will likely see more time versus right handed pitching, probably at Stephen Piscotty's expense. Moss himself does not carry around the large L/R splits you would expect from a lefty with his high strikeout totals, but he does show more power against right handed pitching, something that has been important in the pitchers' parks he has played in in the past six years and will continue to be important in his second stint in Oakland. This past year, Moss hit a somewhat disappointing .207/.279/.428 with 22 home runs in 118 games, but that power will be valuable in the right match-ups. Moss is owed $7.25 million for 2018 (plus $1 million in the likely case that his $10 million mutual option is declined), but the Royals are sending $3.25 million to offset the contract somewhat, meaning Moss will either cost the A's $5 million for one year (more likely) or $14 million for two years (much less likely unless he has a huge bounce-back season). For his career, the Georgia native has 160 home runs, a .237/.314/.452 slash line, and 8.8 fWAR over 1016 games. Meanwhile, Ryan Buchter is one of the best relievers you've never heard of. Over 71 appearances last season, the lefty put up a 2.89 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 65/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings. This success is sustained from 2016, where he put up similar numbers with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 78/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher, but both Kansas City and Oakland are pitchers' parks (as well as San Diego, where he played previously) and that shouldn't be an issue, especially considering that his 16.5% infield fly ball rate and 26% soft contact rate were both 15th in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2017. He joins Blake Treinen, Emilio Pagan, Yusmeiro Petit, Santiago Casilla, and others in what will be one of the more interesting bullpens in baseball. Buchter still has one year of team control and three years of arbitration left, leaving him under control through the 2021 season, though he will turn 31 in February as he didn't crack the major leagues until he was 27. For his career, he is 8-3 with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 144/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.1 innings in 139 appearances.

Interestingly, this leaves the Royals with absolutely nobody to play first base, with third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert looking like the most likely in-house option. However, prospects Ryan O'Hearn and Samir Duenez could make for an interesting dark horse battle if they show up to camp with a chip on their shoulder. Of course, this could also mean what every Royals fan hopes it means; the Royals are clearing space to bring back Eric Hosmer. In terms of this trade, the Royals brought back right hander Jesse Hahn, a Virginia Tech alumnus whose career got off to a promising start in 2014-2015 before fizzling a bit in 2016-2017. From 2014-2015, Hahn went 13-10 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 30 games (28 starts), but since 2016, he is 5-10 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 23 games (22 starts), including a 5.30 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 2017. In terms of the Kansas City rotation this year, Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy can be considered locks, while Jake Junis and Jason Hammel are highly likely to nail down spots as well. That leaves the fifth spot wide open, with Hahn, Nate Karns, Trevor Oaks, and Sam Gaviglio all in the running to grab it. If he can get back to his 2014-2015 form, he should have no trouble grabbing it. Like Buchter, he has one year of team control and three years of arbitration left before he becomes a free agent after the 2021 season. For his career, the Connecticut native is 18-20 with a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 212/103 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games (50 starts). The lone prospect in the deal, right handed pitcher Heath Fillmyer, was drafted in the fifth round of the 2014 draft out of Mercer County Community College in New Jersey, steadily climbing the ladder ever since. He was very impressive with AA Midland this year, going 11-5 with a 3.49 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 115/51 strikeout to walk ratio in 149.2 innings spanning 29 starts. He has good overall stuff, showing a fastball in the low to mid 90's and solid curveball/changeup pair, though he was a bit too hittable with Midland (158 hits) and he needs to further refine his command. Still, the 23 year old is close to the majors and could break into the Kansas City bullpen (or even rotation) with a few adjustments in 2018.

Brewers Add Lorenzo Cain to Mega-Outfield

Lorenzo Cain: 15 HR, .300/.363/.440, 26 SB, 115 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Five years, $80 million

The second of two huge additions to their outfield, the Brewers added Lorenzo Cain to patrol centerfield. With Christian Yelich in right field and Ryan Braun in left, that pushes Domingo Santana (30 HR, .371 OBP) and Keon Broxton (20 HR, 21 SB) to the bench. The Brewers will likely trade one, but this puts them in a very enviable position with their outfield. Cain is a prototypical leadoff guy, posting on-base percentages above .360 in two of the past three seasons while stealing more than 25 bases in three of the past four. He even had some power this past season, knocking 15 home runs for the second time in three years, showing a true all-around skill set. He turns 32 in April, so he isn't the youngest speed guy, but the career high walk rate in 2017 (8.4%) is a good sign and he was worth 4.1 fWAR this past season, the third highest mark of his career. For his career, the former Brewer (who was traded to Kansas City way back in the Zack Greinke deal) has 57 home runs, a .290/.342/.421 slash line, 127 stolen bases, and 23.5 fWAR over 756 games.

Brewers Pull Off Major Trade to Acquire Christian Yelich

Brewers Get: Christian Yelich: 18 HR, .282/.369/.439, 16 SB, 115 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR

Marlins Get: Lewis Brinson: 2 HR, .106/.236/.277, 1 SB, 30 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR

Minor leaguers Isan Diaz: 13 HR, .222/.334/.376, 9 SB, 104 wRC+ at High Class A

Monte Harrison: 21 HR, .272/.350/.481, 27 SB, 135 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A

Jordan Yamamoto: 9-4, 2.51 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 113/30 K/BB, 111 IP at High Class A

This Marlins-Brewers trade is clearly a lot to take in, and I think both sides were big winners here. First, we'll talk about the Brewers and Christian Yelich. To get him, the Brewers dealt from positions of depth, namely outfield (Brinson and Harrison), middle infield (Diaz), and the mound (Yamamoto). Because they had depth at these positions, despite the quality of the prospects given up, the farm system won't hurt too bad, especially with regards to Yelich coming on board., who will play all of 2018 at 26 years old, has a very team-friendly contract with four years and $44.5 million left on it, which could be turned into a five year deal worth $58.25 million if they skip the buyout and pick up his $15 million option for 2022. Simply put, he'll be a Brewer for a long time and he won't be overly expensive. The Milwaukee super outfield, which before the trade consisted of Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, and Domingo Santana with Lewis Brinson and Brett Phillips as backups, now includes Braun, Yelich, and Lorenzo Cain, who was signed on the same day, with Santana and Broxton serving as backups. Santana and Broxton may be the two best backup outfielders in the league, as Santana cracked 30 home runs with a .371 on-base percentage last year, while Broxton hit 20 homers and stole 21 bases. In my opinion, they have to trade one of them and get something of value in return, because both (especially Santana) would be worth more as another team's starter than as a Brewers backup. Yelich can hit at or near the top of the lineup with Cain to set up for Braun, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Orlando Arcia. Yelich himself is a complete player who hasn't gotten much attention due to playing in Miami, but he is coming off back to back 4.5 win seasons. In 2016, he slashed .298/.376/.483 with 21 home runs and nine stolen bases for a 132 wRC+, and in 2017, he slashed .282/.369/.439 with 16 home runs and 16 stolen bases for a 115 wRC+. Fangraphs liked his defense and base running better in 2017, which enabled him to match his 4.5 fWAR from 2016 despite the lower offense. He also had interesting home/road splits, slashing .271/.356/.401 with seven home runs at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park but upping his line to .292/.380/.472 with nine home runs on the road. Considering Milwaukee's Miller Park tends to lean hitter-friendly, his numbers could get a big boost. This is huge for the Brewers. For his career, the Southern California native has 59 home runs, a .290/.369/.432 slash line, 72 stolen bases, and 17.2 fWAR over 643 games, all with the Marlins.

Going back to Miami is a massive haul of prospects, and for once, I think the Marlins did very well. First off, Lewis Brinson is a potential star who could, at best case scenario, single handedly replace Yelich on the team. One of those "mega-athletes," Brinson was selected 29th overall out of a Florida high school in 2012, and while it took him some time to climb the ladder, he's ready to make a big impact in 2018. Missing time in the minors due to a hamstring injury, he still slashed .331/.400/.562 with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 76 games for AAA Colorado Springs, an admittedly Coors Field-type atmosphere, but still good enough for a 146 wRC+. His 62/32 strikeout to walk ratio wasn't remarkable, but given the type of player Brinson is, it's good enough and the Marlins will take it. He struggled a bit in his 21 games in the majors, slashing .106/.236/.277 with a pair of home runs in 21 games, but he did draw seven walks in 55 plate appearances. With his combination of power and speed, he could be a star in Miami. He turns 24 in May. Second baseman Isan Diaz isn't coming off his best season, as he slashed just .222/.334/.376 with 13 home runs for High Class A Carolina, but there is reason to believe there is more in the tank. The 70th overall pick in the 2014 draft out of a western Massachusetts high school, he has a powerful uppercut swing with some nice bat speed that reminds many of Cody Bellinger. He has trouble recognizing pitches and putting the barrel to the ball (evidenced by a 26.6% strikeout rate this year), but he is patient and can draw a walk as well (13.6% walk rate). If he can get his hands and his eyes in sync, he could be a starting second baseman in the majors with some pop. He turns 22 in May. Monte Harrison was another high draft pick, having been taken 50th overall in the same 2014 as Diaz out of a Kansas City-area high school, though it took until this year to get going. After three mediocre seasons, he began 2017 at Class A Wisconsin, and he finally got his bat going by slashing .265/.359/.475 with 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 63 games. Promoted to High Class A Carolina, he handled the transition with ease, slashing .278/.341/.487 with 10 home runs and 16 stolen bases in 59 games. His walk rate may have dropped from 11.1% to 5.6%, but given that the rest of his game transitioned up without a hitch, it's a success. Compare it to his three mediocre seasons before hand (where he hit 12 total home runs in 204 games). He has work to do to maintain this success, and he turns 23 in August so he's not the youngest prospect around, but he's certainly trending in the right direction. Lastly, Jordan Yamamoto, a 12th round pick from the same 2014 draft out of a Hawaii high school, had a decent breakout season at Class A Wisconsin in 2016 (3.82 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 152/31 K/BB) before really coming into his own at High Class A Carolina this year. In 22 games (18 starts), Yamamoto went 9-4 with a 2.51 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 113/30 strikeout to walk ratio 111 innings. In his final four starts, he tossed 27 shutout innings on 17 hits, four walks, and 27 strikeouts. He should be ready for AA in 2018, and he turns 22 in May.

Blue Jays Add More Depth With Randal Grichuk

Blue Jays Get: Randal Grichuk: 22 HR, .238/.285/.473, 6 SB, 94 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR

Cardinals Get: Dominic Leone: 3-0, 2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 81/23 K/BB, 70.1 IP

Minor leaguer Conner Greene: 5-10, 5.29 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, 92/83 K/BB, 132.2 IP at AA

The Blue Jays look like they are going for depth over star power this year, adding outfielder Randal Grichuk after adding Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz to the infield and Curtis Granderson to the outfield. The outfield starters are far from set after centerfielder Kevin Pillar, with Grichuk, Granderson, Steve Pearce, Ezequiel Carrera, and Teoscar Hernandez likely to battle for playing time at the corners. Grichuk is a power right handed bat that cracked 22 home runs last season and 24 in the season prior, but he has struggled to get on base, posting on-base percentages of .289 and .285 in 2016 and 2017, respectively. His power should play up in Toronto and other hitter-friendly ballparks in the AL East, giving him a chance to slash something like .250/.300/.500 with a little bit of speed. That's a pretty valuable player, especially considering his playable defense, and he is under contract for 2018, 2019, and 2020 via arbitration. For his career, Grichuk has 66 home runs, a .249/.297/.488 line, and 7.3 fWAR over 404 games.

In this deal, the Cardinals were able to make room for Jose Martinez to have an increased role in the outfield after he hit .309/.379/.518 in 106 games, mostly off the bench. They will get back two players, including reliever Dominic Leone, a 26 year old righty who had a great season in 2017 (2.56 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 81/23 K/BB in 70.1 innings). This comes after he posted two poor seasons, with an 8.40 ERA in 2015 and a 6.33 ERA in 2016, so Leone is far from a sure bet to perform, but his fastball velocity was up a mile per hour in 2017, so the key to success looks to be maintaining that velocity in 2018. For his career, the former Clemson Tiger is 11-8 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 183/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 160 appearances. Minor leaguer Conner Greene has shown flashes of greatness in the low and mid minors, but he has struggled to adapt to the advanced hitters in AA. In fact, In 22 career starts at High Class A Dunedin, he is 6-7 with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and an 86/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 117.2 innings. However, in 43 career games (42 starts) at AA New Hampshire, Greene is 14-16 with a 4.90 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 155/128 strikeout to walk ratio over 226.1 innings. He works with a very good fastball changeup combination – his fastball can hit triple digits – but has struggled mightily with command, walking a career high 13.6% of those he faced in 2017, all in AA. At this point, it looks like he'll be better suited for relief, where he can lay off his less-consistent curveball and slider and focus on that fastball/changeup combo, running that fastball up to 100 or more in short stints.

Giants Add Andrew McCutchen to Outfield

Giants Get: Andrew McCutchen: 28 HR, .279/.363/.486, 11 SB, 122 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR

$2.5 million

Pirates Get: Kyle Crick: 0-0, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 28/17 K/BB, 32.1 IP

Minor leaguer Bryan Reynolds: 10 HR, .312/.364/.462, 5 SB, 122 wRC+ at High Class A

$500,000 in international bonus pool space

Star centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is the second franchise face to be shipped across the country to San Francisco, following Rays star Evan Longoria. The Giants' outfield was completely barren before the trade, with Hunter Pence (13 HR, .260/.315/.385), Gorkys Hernandez (12 SB, .255/.327/.326), and Jarrett Parker (4 HR, .247/.294/.416) slated to start. McCutchen presumably knocks Parker out of the left field starting spot, because even though he played center in Pittsburgh, he was below average there and will have even more difficulty covering AT&T Park's massive outfield. As a hitter, he had a big bounce back season last year, swatting 28 home runs and slashing .279/.363/.486 with eleven stolen bases to rack up 3.7 fWAR. He likely won't get back to his peak of 2012-2014, where he averaged 7.3 fWAR per season, but he brings to the Giants a combination of power, patience, contact, and speed, not to mention a little name recognition for jersey sales. All of that said, McCutchen will not bring a division crown to the Bay Area. He is only under contract for one more season (at $14.5 million, of which $2.5 million will be paid by Pittsburgh), and the Dodgers are looking to run away with another NL West crown. The Rockies and Diamondbacks also both look good, and unlike the Giants, the Rockies have the farm system for some sustained success. After Heliot Ramos and Chris Shaw, there's not much in terms of impact talent in the system, though the Giants will get a compensation draft pick when they presumably offer McCutchen a qualifying offer after the season and he signs elsewhere. In terms of the outfield now, the Giants need to add yet another piece if they want to compete, and they're right up against the luxury tax threshold, so they'll either have to push past it and accept the penalty or deal again from their shallow farm system. For his career, McCutchen has 203 home runs, a .291/.379/.487 slash line, and 171 stolen bases over 1346 games, racking up 44.4 fWAR in what could border on a Hall of Fame career.

Meanwhile, the Pirates got back a couple of mid-level prospects, along the lines of what came back for Gerrit Cole. Kyle Crick was a longtime prospect as a starting pitcher, but when his progress stagnated for three years in AA when he struggled to throw strikes (he walked 21.9% of the batters he faced in 2015!), the Giants converted him to a reliever and promoted him to AAA Sacramento for 2017. He thrived there, posting a 2.76 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 39/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.1 innings. Though his 10.5% walk rate was still a little high, it was the lowest mark he had ever posted in the minor leagues, and his 31.5% strikeout rate was very promising. Promoted to the majors in June, he more than held his own, posting a 3.06 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 28/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 32.1 innings. The 49th overall pick of the 2011 draft, who turned 25 in November, has new life in his career, and he could make an impact on the Pirates as a long term set-up man. Meanwhile, outfielder Bryan Reynolds could end up providing more value. Drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Vanderbilt, Reynolds was talented enough to go as early as the back half of the first round, but somehow fell out of the top fifty picks. After a successful pro debut across two levels in 2016, the Giants assigned him to High Class A San Jose less than a year after drafting him. Over 121 games, he held up just fine, slashing .312/.364/.462, good for a 122 wRC+ even in the hitter-friendly California League. Now, he did have big splits between his moderate home park (4 HR, .275/.322/.406) and his road trips (6 HR, .348/.403/.518) to more hitter-friendly venues. He didn't have the best plate discipline, striking out 106 times to 37 walks, but I am still confident in his ability to translate his hitting at least up to AA. Overall, he showed that he was a very competent hitter for the league despite the aggressive assignment, and he'll be ready for AA in 2018 and could even break into the majors if all goes well. He has enough speed to play adequate centerfield defense, which takes pressure off his bat, and he'll likely end up as a fourth outfielder in Pittsburgh, albeit a good one who could easily start if given the opportunity.

Astros Add Gerrit Cole to Mega Rotation

Astros Get: Gerrit Cole: 12-12, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 196/55 K/BB, 203 IP

Pirates Get: Joe Musgrove: 7-8, 4.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 98/28 K/BB, 109.1 IP

Colin Moran: 1 HR, .364/.417/.818, 0 SB, 223 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

Michael Feliz: 4-2, 5.63 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 70/22 K/BB, 48 IP

Minor leaguer Jason Martin: 18 HR, .278/.332/.487, 16 SB, 127 wRC+ at High Class A and AA

The Astros did really, really well in trading for Gerrit Cole, doing so without giving up top prospects Forrest Whitley, Kyle Tucker, or J.B. Bukauskas. Cole now joins Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton in one of the best rotations assembled in recent memory. Verlander is past his prime but is still very effective, Keuchel won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015 and is still very effective, McCullers can be dominant when healthy, and Morton experience a career revival last season by just "throwing harder." Cole's career in Pittsburgh was up and down, most notably up in 2015 when he went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 32 starts, and most notably down in 2016 when he was limited to 21 starts by arm troubles and finished 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. His ERA was up at 4.26 this past season, but he got his WHIP back down to 1.25 and his strikeout rate up from 19.4% to 23.1% and his walk rate down from 7.1% to 6.5%. He also allowed a ton of home runs, 31 to be exact, plagued by the eighth highest home run to fly ball rate in baseball (15.9%). Normally a fairly ground ball oriented pitcher, he had the highest fly ball rate of his career in 2017 (33.7%), another thing that may have contributed to his inflated ERA. Cole is no ace, but he fits right into a stacked Astros rotation and gives them arguably the best shot to win it all in 2018. Plus, he's under contract for just $6.75 million in 2018 and whatever he makes in arbitration for 2019 (probably around $10 million), which is certainly a bargain. For his career, the former first overall pick out of UCLA is 59-42 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 127 starts.

Overall, it's a pretty disappointing package for a name-brand starter, but the Pirates did get four useful players to work with. Among the haul going back to Pittsburgh, pitcher Joe Musgrove has had the biggest MLB impact so far. Musgrove first caught nationwide attention in 2015, when as a 22 year old he went 12-1 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP across three minor league levels, striking out 99 and walking just eight over 100.2 innings. He has spent most of 2016 and 2017 in the majors, mostly as a starter but also at times as a reliever. He has been capable in his 25 career starts (8-12, 5.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 114/38 K/BB), but he appears to be on another level in 24 appearances as a long reliever (3-0, 1.26 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 39/6 K/BB). The Pirates can use Musgrove and his top notch command as a starter if they'd like, but those relief numbers are pretty exciting, and he could fill a Chris Devenski type role in Pittsburgh. For his career, Musgrove is 11-12 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 49 games (25 starts). Third baseman Colin Moran, like Cole and Musgrove, was a first round pick, but he has taken some time to get going and hasn't quite filled his potential. He was blocked in Houston behind Alex Bregman at third base and behind Yulieski Gurriel and A.J. Reed at first base, but he could fill in for David Freese at third base in Pittsburgh when necessary and possibly even take over for him in 2019 if the Pirates decline his $6 million option. A power hitter at UNC, Moran finally got going at AAA Fresno in 2017, cracking 18 home runs and slashing .308/.373/.543 over 79 games, striking out 55 times with 31 walks. He crushed the ball in twelve major league plate appearances, knocking two singles, a triple, and a home run while walking once and striking out once. He turned 25 in October, and he'll look for the change of scenery to get him going. Righty Michael Feliz is a power reliever who has struck out major league hitters in bunches over the past two seasons, at a 35.2% rate in 2016 and a 32.1% rate in 2017. He was a bit too hittable in 2017 and finished with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 46 appearances, but at just 24 years old, the Pirates can try to refine him and help him use his velocity to the fullest. For his career, Feliz is 12-3 with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 172/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 appearances. Lastly, minor league outfielder Jason Martin continued his 2016 power breakout into 2017, clubbing 18 home runs between High A Buies Creek and AA Corpus Christi. With Buies Creek, Martin hit seven home runs and slashed .287/.354/.494 over 46 games, picking up nine stolen bases along the way. Against the tougher pitching in AA, he didn't lose much production, hitting eleven home runs and slashing .273/.319/.483 with seven stolen bases in 79 games. Aside from his walk rate dropping from 10.1% to 5.9%, pretty much his whole game translated up from the High A Carolina League to the AA Texas League without a hitch, and he has a chance to serve as a fourth outfielder for the Pirates in the near future, if not a regular if he can continue to translate his skills upwards.

Twins Sign Addison Reed

Addison Reed: 2-3, 2.84 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 76/15 K/BB, 76 IP
Two years, $17 million

The Twins got a bargain on Addison Reed, especially compared to what some similar relievers got (the Rockies paid Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw $52 million, $27 million, and $27 million, respectively, to come to Colorado). Reed is coming off a superb pair of seasons, including a 2016 where he put up a 1.97 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 91/13 strikeout to walk ratio for the Mets. He was still great in 2017, posting a 2.84 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 76/15 strikeout to walk ratio for the Mets and Red Sox, and at 29 years old, he's fairly young as far as free agents go. The Twins already added Fernando Rodney to the bullpen, but Reed is a much bigger addition and he will likely take over ninth inning duties assuming the Twins don't do the smart thing and get rid of the idea of a closer. For a small market team like Minnesota, saving money and going for on-field value rather than name value is very smart. For his career, Reed is 18-21 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 425/104 strikeout to walk ratio in 410 games.

Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018

The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.

1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.

2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.

3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.

4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.

5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.

6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.

7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.

8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.

9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.

10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.

Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.

Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)

Mets Sign Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce: 36 HR, .254/.324/.508, 1 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR

Three years, $39 million, annual five team no-trade clause

The Mets added some actual lineup protection for Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto, bringing back Jay Bruce on a three year, $39 million deal. While this won't help the Mets catch the Nationals in the NL East, the Mets may be able to compete for a Wild Card spot if Noah Syndergaard can bounce back and young prospective stars Amed Rosario and Dom Smith can quickly transition to MLB pitching by living up to the hype right away. Bruce may end up with quite a few defensive homes, likely seeing time in left field, right field, and first base, though the Mets will want to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible. With Cespedes injured a fair amount and Conforto coming off shoulder surgery, he could see time filling in for them, or we could even see Cespedes slide to center field occasionally to get all three in the outfield at once. Additionally, 22 year old first baseman Dom Smith is not a given to produce at first base, and while the Mets hope he can be a productive bat this year, Bruce can play first base if Smith's bat is a liability. Now for Bruce's bat; it's pretty interesting. He's really only good for one thing, home runs, but he's really good for that one thing, clubbing at least 30 in five of the past seven seasons and 36 last year. In fact, this past season was one of his best, as he slashed .254/.324/.508 with those 36 home runs, putting up a 118 wRC+. He'll need to keep popping those home runs, because he doesn't do much otherwise. He's an average defender who figures to lose a step as he ages, and he has an average walk rate to go with low batting averages, meaning his on-base percentage hasn't climbed north of .329 since 2011. The length of this deal, three years, is very good for the Mets, because when Bruce's power begins to slip later in his 30's, he won't be able to contribute much with those low on-base percentages. Overall, this was a smart move by the Mets. For his career, Bruce has 277 home runs, a .249/.319/.472 slash line, and 20.3 fWAR over 1416 games.

Padres Trade Yangervis Solarte to Blue Jays

Blue Jays Get: Yangervis Solarte: 18 HR, .255/.314/.416, 3 SB, 93 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR

Padres Get: Edward Olivares: 17 HR, .269/.327/.468, 20 SB, 122 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A,

Jared Carkuff: 3-4, 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 51/15 K/BB, 63 IP at Class A Short Season, Class A, High Class A, and AAA,

With middle infielders Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis both missing most of last season, and Tulowitzki especially looking fairly unpredictable health-wise, the Blue Jays went ahead and picked up infielder Yangervis Solarte to fight with fellow newcomer Aledmys Diaz to fill whatever holes may arise. Playing in San Diego, Solarte doesn't get much press, but he has been quite the productive player over the past few seasons. In 2016, he cracked 15 home runs and slashed .286/.341/.467 for a 119 wRC+, racking up 2.8 fWAR in just 109 games. His slash line fell to .255/.314/.416 and his wRC+ to 93 in 2017, but he did set a career high with 18 home runs and picked up 1.1 fWAR in 128 games. Toronto is a more hitter-friendly environment than San Diego, and he hits his fair share of fly balls, so his numbers could see a small bump in 2018 just on park context alone. He's set to make $13.5 million over the next two seasons, which isn't too bad, and he has played at least 36 career games at each infield position. For his career, Solarte has 57 home runs, a .267/.327/.419 slash line, and 7.1 fWAR over 520 games.

Meanwhile, the Padres got a pair of prospects, including the well-regarded center fielder Edward Olivares. The 21 year old Venezuelan spent most of the season at Class A Lansing, where he showed off in all facets by slashing .277/.330/500 with 17 home runs and 18 stolen bases in 101 games. His 82/22 strikeout to walk ratio was a bit underwhelming given he wasn't exactly young for the league, but his overall production and skills led to a late-season promotion to High Class A Dunedin. He had some hiccups adjusting, slashing .221/.312/.265 with no home runs and two stolen bases in 19 games, but he did walk eight times (10.4% rate) and wasn't totally overmatched. He'll likely start back in High A in 2018, but there is reason to believe he could be on the verge of a breakout. He's extremely athletic, as seen in the power/speed combination he showcased in Class A, and he's still growing into his 6'2" frame, so the Padres are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and get a future starting center fielder. Of course, he doesn't have absolutely everything going for him, as he does turn 22 in March and is a bit older than the typical projection play. Given his age, that 82/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Class A was a bit disappointing, and he does have a long way to go with his offensive profile if he wants to be productive at the major league level. He's certainly one to watch. 24 year old Jared Carkuff is slightly less interesting, but that is okay. The Blue Jays drafted Carkuff in the 35th round of the 2016 draft out of Austin Peay State in Tennessee, converting him to relief and getting results immediately. After posting a 1.42 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 35/3 strikeout to walk ratio in the Gulf Coast League immediately after being drafted in 2016, the Jays pushed him all the way up to High Class A Dunedin to start 2017. He held his own but didn't dominate in ten appearances, putting up a 5.14 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 15/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 21 innings. He missed a couple weeks with a minor injury and was briefly sent to Class A Short Season Vancouver to ramp back up (and he threw three shutout innings), then spent much of the season a level below Dunedin at Class A Lansing. In 21 appearances, he looked very good, posting a 3.79 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 32/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.2 innings. At the end of the season, he got a brief, one game call up to AAA Buffalo, where he shut down the Syracuse Chiefs (Nationals AAA) over 3.1 innings, allowing no runs on one hit and one walk. He's a middle relief prospect who could be in the majors in the near future.

White Sox, Dodgers, Royals Shuffle Relievers

White Sox Get: White Sox Get: Joakim Soria (4-3, 3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 64/20 K/BB, 2018 Age: 33-34) and $1 million from the Royals and Luis Avilan (2-3, 2.93 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 52/22 K/BB, 2018 Age: 28-29) and $2 million from the Dodgers

Dodgers Get: Scott Alexander (5-4, 2.48 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 59/38 K/BB, 2018 Age: 28-29) from the Royals and minor leaguer Jake Peter (13 HR, .279/.344/.417, 11 SB, 118 wRC+ at AA and AAA, 2018 Age: 25) from the White Sox

Royals Get: Minor leaguers Trevor Oaks (4-3, 3.83 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 81/19 K/BB at AZL, Rookie, and AAA, 2018 Age: 25) and Erick Mejia (8 HR, .278/.344/.397, 28 SB, 108 wRC+ at High Class A, AA, and AAA, 2018 Age: 23) from the Dodgers

Three team trades are usually a mouthful, and this one is no different. The White Sox got the most in terms of major league-ready talent, prying a reliever each from the Royals and Dodgers. They aren't quite ready to contend, but their bullpen was something of a barren wasteland before the trade and additions were absolutely necessary. As it was, it would have been led by Nate Jones (2.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP in limited action), Danny Farquhar (4.20 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), Gregory Infante (3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), and Juan Minaya (4.53 ERA, 1.33 WHIP), the former two of which are often injured and the latter two of which are completely unproven outside of solid rookie seasons last year. Joakim Soria, coming from Kansas City, has a pretty recognizable name at this point, as he was a star reliever for the Royals from 2007-2010 before falling more to the middle of the pack this decade. This past season with the Royals, he made 59 appearances and posted a 3.70 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 64/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 innings, still very good numbers for a pitcher in his mid-30's. He was a little better against right handed hitters (.203/.293/.231 opponents' slash line) than against left handed hitters (.269/.313/.366), but he clearly was very effective at both and will be a valuable asset for the White Sox. He's due to make $9 million in 2018, a fairly hefty sum for a non-elite reliever, but the Royals did send $1 million along with him to partially offset it. For his career, he is 28-31 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 573 appearances. From the Dodgers comes left handed specialist Luis Avilan, who battled some control issues in 2017 but put up a very respectable 2.93 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 61 appearances, striking out 52 and walking 22 in 46 innings. His splits were a bit steeper than Soria's, as he dominated left handed hitters (.195/.290/.280) but was knocked around by righties (.292/.376/.449). He obviously won't be as flexible as Soria, but his effectiveness against left handers will be valuable when the situations come along. Turning 29 in July, he's much younger than Soria, who turns 34 in May, and he also comes with two years left on his contract, which figures to rise from $1.5 million through arbitration but not by much. For his career, he is 17-9 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 329 appearances. 

The Dodgers also come away with a major leaguer, left handed reliever Scott Alexander, who put up a very fine season for the Royals under the radar. In 58 appearances, the 27-28 year old rookie (who did see limited action in 2015 and 2016) put up a 2.48 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, striking out 59 and walking 28 in 69 innings. He doesn't throw all that hard, but he generates ground balls at a ridiculous rate (73.8% in 2017), in fact the highest rate of any pitcher who threw more than one (1!) inning in 2017. That exceptional ground ball rate is more of a bonus than a necessity in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, you can bet he'll get the ball plenty of times when the Dodgers play road games in hitters' havens Coors Field and Chase Field. Despite being left handed, Alexander did manage to be slightly more effective against right handed hitters (.240/.313/.317) than against left handed hitters (.250/.333/.347), which doesn't mean much with the numbers so close but does mean he's useful against both lefties and righties. For his career, he is 5-4 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 79 appearances. The Dodgers also picked up AAA infielder Jake Peter from the White Sox, who could be useful as a utility man this season. Peter was drafted in the seventh round out of Creighton in 2014, working his way to the upper minors by 2016. Starting with AA Birmingham in 2017, Peter hit four home runs and slashed .270/.340/.361 over 75 games, stealing nine bases and earning a promotion to AAA Charlotte. There, he was even better, hitting nine home runs and slashing .292/.351/.506 with two stolen bases in 45 games. He'll turn 25 at the start of the 2018 season and likely isn't LA's long term answer at second base, but he can fill a Charlie Culberson-type role and spell the starters in the field.

Lastly, the Royals picked up a pair of prospects for Soria and Alexander. Trevor Oaks, coming from the Dodgers, missed part of the season with oblique troubles, but was effective when healthy. Aside from his three rehab starts in the low minors, Oaks spent the whole season with AAA Oklahoma City, going 4-3 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 16 games (15 starts), striking out 72 and walking 18 in 84 innings. Like Scott Alexander, he gets a lot of ground balls, inducing them at a 50.8% rate in AAA this year, still a high rate despite being a career low in the category. Lacking a true out pitch, he fills the zone with strikes, and could be a back-end starter in Kansas City. Drafted in the same seventh round of the 2014 draft as Jake Peter, the righty out of California Baptist will be 25 at the start of the season. Erick Mejia split the season bouncing between High Class A Rancho Cucamonga and AA Tulsa, and while he didn't hit too well in High A (1 HR, .230/.292/.333 in 24 games), he took really well to AA, hitting seven home runs and slashing .289/.357/.413 with 25 stolen bases over 102 games, showcasing both speed and a little bit of power. His 78/37 strikeout to walk ratio wasn't great but wasn't terrible either, and the 23 year old shortstop could be a productive major leaguer, likely more as a utility man than as a starter, but he's one to watch.

2018 Draft: An Early Top 10 Prospect List (1/5/2018)

Aside from a few rumors, there isn't much going on in the world of baseball, so I'm taking some time during this slow Hot Stove period to look over what looks like, for now, the top of the draft. Things will undoubtedly change between now and June, but here are my top ten prospects for now:

1. RHP Brady Singer (University of Florida). MLB.com rank: #1
Right now, Gator ace Brady Singer checks all of the boxes of a 1-1 pick, and there aren't many publications out there that don't have him in the top slot. The 6'5", 180 pound right hander had a big sophomore year with Florida last year, going 9-5 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 innings mostly against tough SEC competition. He has an extremely quick arm that produces a hard running, deceptive, low to mid 90's fastball that only figures to get faster as he fills out his lanky frame. His slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the NCAA, as he can manipulate it's shape and speed at will to give hitters a multitude of different looks. On top of it all, he can command everything well and he is said to have great makeup, and looks to have a very good shot at ending up a number two starter if not more. At worst, I think he still cracks the back of a big league rotation. He originally hails from Eustis, Florida, outside of Orlando.
What he can do this spring: Not much. Singer just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he has been doing, and he'll remain a frontrunner for 1-1.

2. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ). MLB.com rank: #3
I am a huge fan of Matthew Liberatore, a 6'5" high school left hander out of the Phoenix area. In my four years of following the draft closely, he is the first pitcher to remind me of Clayton Kershaw right off the bat. Liberatore is currently pitchability over stuff, but I can see him having plus stuff when all is said and done, combining the two traits in a similar way to Kershaw. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent, diving changeup well advanced beyond most high schoolers. His curveball isn't quite the pitch his fastball and changeup are, but it has good shape and spin rate, and if he adds power, it will be a third plus pitch. Around it all, like Singer, he has great command. His pitching motion could use some work, as he doesn't quite get all of his momentum going towards the plate, but that's fixable. The similarities with Kershaw are there: handedness, build, stuff (Kershaw throws low 90's as well), command, and even drop and drive pitching mechanics. Kershaw's curve has more power and he also throws an excellent slider, but Liberatore is Kershaw lite. He is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: If he takes a step forward with his curveball while maintaining the rest of his skill set, he could challenge Singer for the 1-1 spot.

3. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA). MLB.com rank: #2
There aren't many publications that list Ethan Hankins as anything but the top high school pitcher in the country, but his ranking behind Liberatore here speaks more to how much I like Liberatore than anything about Hankins. Hankins is a 6'6" right handed pitcher from high school on the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, and he has arguably the most electric arm in this draft. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that hits 98 and could top out at 100 by the time he fills out his frame, and unlike most power high school arms, he can actually control it. Like Liberatore, he also has an advanced changeup, though his biggest area for improvement comes with his two breaking pitches. His curveball and slider both look good at times, and his curveball has especially good shape, but they lack power and are average at this point. All of that together helped him dominate the 18 and Under World Cup this past summer more than any other prospect. If he develops one or both breaking pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter, but he has a bit of a lower floor should his command unravel, with his realistic floor being that of a power reliever. Hankins is committed to Vanderbilt.
What he can do this spring: Without improving one of his breaking pitches, he probably has a better chance to go in the 3-6 range, but improving either his slider or curveball to plus could make him the first high school right hander ever to go first overall.

4. RHP Casey Mize (Auburn University). MLB.com ranking: #8.
I promise some hitters are coming, but the top of this draft is just filled with great pitchers. Auburn ace Casey Mize lacks the ceiling of those above him on this list, but he has dominated college hitters unlike almost anybody else in the league. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tigers this past spring, Mize went 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 109/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC hitters. Aside from Singer, Mize might be the most advanced pitcher in this draft, showing excellent command of a mid 90's fastball, a plus splitter, and a very good slider. The 6'3" right hander is a bulldog on the mound, and though he doesn't figure to gain much velocity,  he's excellent where he is now. His whole arsenal, with his command, could play in the major leagues in the very near future, but he has one flaw that causes teams to take a second look; durability. Mize seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the spring collegiate season and was shut down, and when he tried to ramp it back up over the summer, he strained his forearm and had to be shut down again. An optimist could say that professional conditioning regimens could be just what he needs, but the truth is that Mize has not proven that he can handle a 100 inning workload, let alone a 200 inning workload. He has the makings of a mid rotation starter, and if he stays healthy, he is very likely to reach that potential. Mize comes from Springville, Alabama, outside of Birmingham.
What he can do this spring: All Mize needs to to is stay healthy. I have a hard time seeing him go 1-1 no matter what he does due to his lack of a high ceiling, but a healthy Mize who maintains his stuff and velocity all through the spring has a very good chance of going in the top five.

5. 2B/SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State University). MLB.com ranking: #11
Finally, we have the first hitter on our list. The first thing anybody notices about Madrigal is his size: at 5'7" and 160 pounds, he always one of the smallest guys on the field, but Astros second baseman Jose Altuve might be the best thing that ever happened to him. With Altuve proving that little guys can rake, Madrigal's draft stock is much higher than it might have been had he come around a few years earlier. Oregon State was the best team in the country for most of the season, and Madrigal played a huge part in that by slashing .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 16 stolen bases in 60 games. He also proved to have an excellent approach at the plate, walking 27 times while striking out just 16 times, good for 9.6% and 5.7% of his plate appearances, respectively. Despite his small size, he does have nearly average power, coming from a quick bat that he deploys against a stiff front leg. If he wants to improve that power, he could benefit from gaining more ground with his stride, but a guy his size should maximize his ability to spray line drives around the field, something he does very well. In the field, he's a second baseman right now, though his arm may just be strong enough for shortstop. Either way, he's a very valuable asset, one who should at least hit for average in the major leagues due to his excellent approach. He originally comes from Elk Grove, California, just south of Sacramento.
What he can do this spring: Madrigal likely isn't going to grow any more, so aside from a surprise outburst of power, the best thing Madrigal can do for his draft stock is to keep spraying line drives all over the field and maybe add a few more walks, as 9.6% is good but not amazing.

6. 3B Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ). MLB.com ranking: #4
The players who in my opinion are the best high school hitter and best high school pitcher, respectively, in the class, go to school just ten minutes apart in the northern Phoenix suburbs. While Matthew Liberatore will draw scouts by the dozens to Mountain Ridge High School, neighboring Sandra Day O'Connor High School will have it's own share of scouts to see power hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman. At 6'1", Gorman is a bit undersized for a pure power hitter, but the MLB All Star Game High School Home Run Derby champion can blast home runs with the best of them. He has extremely quick hands that help him maximize the power coming from his thick build, though he does sometimes appear uncomfortable at the plate. This has led to worries from scouts as to how his power will translate up, and I myself have noticed that he gets his hands back fairly late, something he'll have to fix against advanced pitching. When your bat is as quick as Gorman's it's often easier to make these adjustments, but it is something to watch. If all goes right, he could hit 30-40 home runs annually in the majors. Like Liberatore, Gorman is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: Gorman needs to show a better approach at the plate, so keeping his strikeouts down and drawing lots of walks would be good for him. A home run off rival Matthew Liberatore would be a nice bonus.

7. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI). MLB.com ranking: #12
Wisconsin isn't typically a hotbed for talent, but they've had a nice run with first rounder Gavin Lux and second rounder Ben Rortvedt in 2016, followed by first rounder Jeren Kendall (Wisconsin native playing at Vanderbilt) in 2017, and finally Jarred Kelenic this year. Kelenic may be a bit old for his class with a July birthday, but he's a five tool player who could contribute in multiple categories at the big league level. He's an excellent pure hitter, using a clean swing to spray line drives and extra base hits all over the field while knocking his share of home runs. He doesn't get fooled at the plate, and he won't need as much time adjusting to the low minors as, for example, a Nolan Gorman-type. He's also a very good defensive outfielder, and while he may not stick in center, he could provide plenty of value in right. If it all breaks right, Kelenic could be an annual 20-20 threat while posting on-base percentages approaching .400. He is committed to the University of Louisville.
What he can do this spring: Kelenic is a great all-around player who doesn't shine in any particular place, so I think the best tool for him to improve this spring would be power. Listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds, he has a wiry, athletic frame that could produce more than the average power he has now. Some big moonshots in front of scouts could push him towards the top five.

8. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA). MLB.com ranking: #7
Southern California native Brice Turang has been a top prospect for years, and he could find himself drafted in the top ten picks in 2018. Like Kelenic, Turang is more of an all-around player than one with standout tools, though he's not exactly the same. First off, he's a shortstop (and a good one at that), and he is faster than Kelenic. On the flip side, his bat isn't quite as developed, as he shows a whippy swing from a lean frame but was up and down over the summer. I like that swing, and I think he could hit for power and average in the majors, but it'll take some work to get there. Turang is committed to Louisiana State.
What he can do this spring: Of primary focus for Turang should be to show more consistency at the plate than he did over the summer. That would solidify his ranking in the top ten. If he does that while adding the power I believe he is capable of adding, he'll jump back into the top five where he was ranked before the summer.

9. SS/3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL). MLB.com ranking: #6
Nander De Sedas is a high school switch hitter with a good balance of above average power and above average contact, and while it's not as certain as with Turang, he could stick at shortstop. De Sedas has a clean swing that enables him to reach that balance, though his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent due to his switch hitting, which is normal for high schoolers. He gets dinged a little bit due to his early birthday, like Kelenic's a July one, but his combination of approach, power, and defensive value isn't easy to come by. If he has to move off shortstop, he does have the arm to stick at third base. De Sedas is committed to Florida State.
What he can do this spring: Two areas where De Sedas could conceivably improve are on defense and with power. If he emerges from the winter having worked hard on improving his range at shortstop, teams can safely draft him as a shortstop and see him as a future Francisco Lindor (who also attended the Montverde Academy), albeit with less speed. Adding power could also help his bat profile better at third base should shortstop not work out, and his plate discipline would make him an attractive alternative to Nolan Gorman.

10. RF Griffin Conine (Duke University). MLB.com ranking: #19
Former Marlins and Orioles star Jeff Conine's son Griffin is looking like one of the top bats in this year's college class. After a forgettable freshman season (0 HR, .205/.306/.247), Conine broke out in a big way by socking 13 home runs and slashing .298/.425/.546 as a sophomore, striking out 45 times while walking 41 times in 58 games. He continued that production over into the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he slashed .329/.406/.537 with nine home runs and a 43/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 games, and scouts named him the league's top prospect. I'm personally a huge fan of Conine, as he generates his plus power from a strong 6'1" frame while keeping his bat in the zone for a long time. He could use to add some more loft, but I like the way his swing has come along so far, and doing so could turn him into a legitimate 30+ home run threat. He's a patient hitter, which enabled him to post on-base percentages above .400 in both his predominantly-ACC collegiate season and his Cape Cod season, but he does also swing and miss quite a bit. That's his only flaw on offense. Defensively, he should be a very good right fielder, showcasing more speed than typical for a power hitter as well as a very good arm. To top it off, he's a little younger than the typical college junior, not turning 21 until July. He's originally from the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area.
What he can do this spring: Conine has the power and he's trending in the right direction, so aside from continuing this trend, I think the best thing he can do is to cut down his strikeouts. 16.8% in his collegiate season and 23% in the Cape Cod League aren't astronomically high as they are, but cutting that regular season rate down to 10-15% could do wonders for his draft stock, as teams will be much more confident that he can tap into his raw power.

Just missed: LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida), LHP Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson), OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State), OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)