Rockies Sign Wade Davis

Wade Davis: 4-2, 2.30 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 79/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP
Three Years, $52 million, $15 million vesting/mutual option for 2021

After re-signing Jake McGee and adding Bryan Shaw, the Rockies made their biggest move yet with the bullpen by adding Wade Davis to be the closer to replace Greg Holland, signing him for three years and $52 million. That contract, on a per-year basis, is the most expensive contract ever for a reliever, just barely eclipsing Aroldis Chapman's five year, $86 million deal from last offseason ($17.3 million to $17.2 million). At this point, with the likes of Chris Rusin, Mike Dunn, Adam Ottavino, and Scott Oberg also in the bullpen, the Rockies will have a very strong relief corps in 2018 to match a very strong rotation led by Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Chad Bettis, among others. This combination of a deep rotation and bullpen gives Colorado perhaps the best pitching staff it has ever had, though the offense needs significant work. Aside from Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, there are no consistent, productive hitters in the lineup, aside from DJ LeMahieu's average contact bat. Now, back to Davis. The 6'5" right hander is a converted starter who was pretty decent in that role (4.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP in 88 career starts), but he has been beyond excellent as a reliever (1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP in 305 appearances). He was at his best in 2014 and 2015, but his 2017 season saw him put up a very solid 2.30 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 79/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 appearances (note the high strikeout rate), and he is still one of the game's best relievers. His ERA will jump in Colorado in this 2018-2020 period, but there aren't many out there who are better than Davis. It should also be noted that Davis is the first player to sign this offseason after rejecting a qualifying offer, so he will cost the Rockies their third highest draft pick in 2018. Now, it's time for them to go pick up a bat or two.

Brewers Sign Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin: 13-10, 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 153/72 K/BB, 180.1 IP

They don't get talked about a lot, but the Brewers are a good team with a chance to contend with the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central, and adding Jhoulys Chacin is a big step in the right direction. They already lost staff leader Jimmy Nelson (12-6, 3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) for a portion of the 2018 season, but Chacin joins a rotation that does include Zach Davies (17-9, 3.90, 1.35) and Chase Anderson (12-4, 2.74, 1.09) at the front end, and Chacin is no slouch himself. The 29 year old had a big year in 2017, going 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 32 starts for the Padres, and he should fit right in to the middle of the Milwaukee rotation. Chacin's slider is one of the best in baseball, posting the second highest "slider value" (according to Fangraphs) in baseball, behind only Max Scherzer. However, there is one split that catches my attention. In 16 home starts in San Diego's pitcher-friendly PETCO Park, Chacin went 9-3 with a 1.79 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP, but in 16 road starts, he went 4-7 with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. That's the difference between the best home ERA in all of baseball and the worst road ERA in all of baseball (min 80 innings for both), which is a bit troubling. However, looking further back, he had a 3.52 ERA at home and a 5.85 ERA on the road in 2016. Extending it out over his career, which includes six seasons pitching in pitchers' hell Coors Field, he still has a much lower home ERA (3.65) than road (4.27), so it may be a case of him just really liking to pitch in familiar environments. Chacin is an interesting pitcher, and the Brewers got a fair deal on him at $15 million. For his career, the Venezuela native is 59-67 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 195 games (167 starts) for the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Braves, Angels, and Padres.

Indians Add Yonder Alonso to Lineup

Yonder Alonso: 28 HR, .266/.365/.501, 2 SB, 132 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR
Two years, $16 million, $8 million vesting option for 2020

Signing Yonder Alonso is a great move by the Indians. Alonso had a big breakout season in 2017, one very comparable to that of the man he'll be replacing in the lineup, Carlos Santana. Alonso hit .266/.365/.501 with a 132 wRC+, while Santana slashed .259/.363/.455 with a 117 wRC+, and while Santana signed for $60 million with the Phillies, Alonso's contract is worth just $16 million. Obviously, Santana has a much longer track record than Alonso, but Alonso is no slouch and should have no problem replacing Santana in the lineup. His big power breakout in 2017 was fueled by fly balls and hard contact, as he set career highs in both (43.2% and 36%, respectively), while naturally setting a career low in ground balls (33.9%). In addition to all those fly balls, his 13.1% walk rate was also a career high, putting together a power/on-base package that cleanly fits the $16 million price tag. His 132 wRC+ placed him 29th in baseball, just behind Anthony Rizzo (133) and ahead of the likes of Nolan Arenado (129), Buster Posey (128), and Corey Seager (127). For his career, the former Miami Hurricane has 67 home runs, a .268/.340/.407 line, and 5.7 fWAR over 806 games.

Evan Longoria Shipped to San Francisco for Denard Span, Prospects

Giants Get: Evan Longoria (Age 32): 20 HR, .261/.313/.424, 6 SB, 96 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR

$14.5 million

Rays Get: Denard Span (Age 33): 12 HR, .272/.329/.427, 12 SB, 102 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

Christian Arroyo (Age 22): 3 HR, .192/.244/.304, 1 SB, 44 wRC+, -0.5 fWAR

Matt Krook (Age 23): 4-9, 5.12 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 105/66 K/BB, 91.1 IP at High Class A

Stephen Woods (Age 22): 6-7, 2.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 113/64 K/BB, 110 IP at Class A

I don't like the idea of the Giants trading for Evan Longoria. He is a good player, but the Giants are unlikely to contend in 2017 and beyond, as their roster has little long-term depth due to a farm system that only got weaker in dealing three prospects. He has five years and $88 million left on his contract (with the Rays paying $14.5 million), and while that's about market value for a good bat and a good glove together, they gave up a major leaguer and three good prospects (though the Rays are sending money with him). Denard Span is owed $15 million for 2018 (assuming the Rays buy out his contract for 2019), so that offsets some, but it is still not a good trade for a Giants team that should be rebuilding, not stretching out an already closed window of contention. All of that said, Longoria patches up a big hole in the Giants roster, sliding into a solid infield that includes Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford as well. The outfield is less fearsome (Hunter Pence, Jarrett Parker, Gorkys Hernandez, Mac Williamson), but at least the infield is patched up. Longoria is coming off a down offensive year, one where he slashed .261/.313/.424 with 20 home runs over 156 games, good for a 96 wRC+, but his good defense helped bring his fWAR up to 2.5. It was still by far the worst season of his career, the first in which his wRC+ dipped below league average (100) and also the first full season in which he failed to put up at least 3.3 fWAR. He is coming off an excellent 2016 (36 HR, .273/.318/.521, 123 wRC+, 4.5 fWAR), and there is definitely still sock in the bat, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and it would make sense that he would trend downwards. For his career, the California native and former Long Beach State Dirtbag has 261 home runs, a .270/.341/.483 slash line, and 49.6 fWAR over 1435 games.

Going back to the Rays, mainly for salary relief, is Denard Span, who grew up 15 minutes from downtown Tampa. Span, who gets on base at a good clip and still has good speed at 33 years old, has seen his power spike in since coming to San Francisco. After never hitting more than eight home runs in a season from 2008-2015, Span cracked eleven and twelve home runs in 2016 and 2017, and his .155 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) in 2017 was far and away a career high. In fact, overall, he was more productive at the plate in 2017 (102 wRC+) than Longoria (96 wRC+). That's not to say he's a better hitter in the long run, but he's definitely a productive hitter. For his career, Span has 60 home runs, a .283/.348/.396 slash line, 176 stolen bases, and 26.5 fWAR over 1222 games. 22 year old shortstop Christian Arroyo is the biggest piece moving, though, and he's also a Tampa-area native to boot. Arroyo is an advanced hitter with excellent bat to ball skills, one who is tough to strike out and who can have some sneaky power when he gets into one. In 2017, he made a mockery of AAA pitching in the small sample of 25 games, slashing .396/.461/.604 with four home runs, seven doubles, and a pair of stolen bases, striking out twelve times to six walks. He also spent 34 games in the big leagues with the Giants, slashing .192/.244/.304 with three home runs, five doubles, and one stolen base. He struck out 32 times and walked eight times, and while he wasn't exactly a prized contributor in the lineup, he showed competence and should be ready for a full season in the majors in 2018 once he works his way back from the broken hand that ended his season in August. He has a high floor as a utility man and a relatively high ceiling as an everyday shortstop and a high-OBP leadoff man. Matt Krook, a San Francisco native, is an interesting pitching prospect. Krook was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school and dominated the Pac-12 as a freshman at Oregon (1.79 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 60 strikeouts in 45.1 innings), but blew out his elbow, missed 2015, and couldn't throw a strike as a redshirt-sophomore for the Ducks in 2016 (5.03 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 49 walks in 53.2 innings). The Giants liked his raw stuff, which includes a running low to mid 90's fastball and an excellent power curveball, and took him in the fourth round. After walking 35 in 40.2 innings in his pro debut last year, he walked another 66 in 91.1 innings in 2017, making progress but not much. On the bright side, in his final five games, he walked just one batter in 10.2 innings while striking out 17 and allowing just one run. If he really turned a corner in those final games, he could be a mid-rotation starter for the Rays. If not, he still has a good chance at being a power reliever. Lastly, 22 year old Stephen Woods was drafted in the eighth round out of SUNY Albany in 2016, and the Giants have done a great job cleaning him up thus far. Like Krook, he struggles with command, but his great stuff led to a 2.95 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 110 innings in 23 starts at Class A Augusta in 2017. The 64 walks were a bit high, but he comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a hard cutter-slider, and a good curveball, so he could very well become a back-end starter if he doesn't end up in the bullpen.

Angels Continue to Build with Addition of Zack Cozart

Zack Cozart: 24 HR, .297/.385/.548, 3 SB, 141 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR
Three Years, $38 million

If there was any doubt they were going for a division crown after the signing of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have alleviated it with the trade for Ian Kinsler and the signing of Zack Cozart. They probably won't catch the Astros, but their is always a chance and if not, the Angels are in really good position for a Wild Card spot. After years of decency, posting fWAR's between 1.2 and 2.5 every year from 2012-2016, Cozart broke out in a big way in 2017 by slashing .297/.385/.548 with 24 home runs, a 141 wRC+, and 5.0 fWAR over 122 games. His .312 BABIP (versus a .280 career mark) suggests that luck may have played a part in his breakout, but not by much, and his batted ball data supports his breakout being real. His 30.8% hard-hit rate was the second highest of his career (after the 31.2% rate in 2016), while his 42.3% fly ball rate was a career high and his 38.2% ground ball rate was a career low. Cozart also brings defensive value, and though he'll move from shortstop to third base in deference to wizard Andrelton Simmons, it's a big upgrade in the field for the Halos. Now with Simmons, Cozart, Kinsler, Mike Trout, and Martin Maldonado in the field, the Angels will boast one of baseball's best defenses with the likelihood to bring home multiple Gold Gloves. For his career, the Ole Miss alumnus has 82 home runs, a .254/.305/.411 slash line, and 14.9 fWAR over 743 games.

Phillies Sign Carlos Santana

Carlos Santana: 23 HR, .259/.363/.455, 5 SB, 117 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
Three Years, $60 million, $17.5 million club option for 2021

The Phillies' signing of slugger Carlos Santana is an interesting one as they gear up for a potential run of contention in the next few years. Young stars Rhys Hoskins, J.P. Crawford, Aaron Nola, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, and more are ready to or already have come into their own, and with the Marlins and Mets trending in the wrong direction, the door is as open as it ever will be for Philadelphia. The Nationals aren't going anywhere, and the Braves are on their way up, but with the young core the Phillies have, there is no reason they can't join them in the next few seasons. Veteran Carlos Santana will be right in the middle of that, drawing walks and crushing home runs with regularity. In each of his past seven seasons, Santana has hit at least 18 home runs and walked at least 88 times, reaching 20 home runs five times and 100 walks twice. This past season, he slashed .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs in 154 games, good for a 117 wRC+ and 3.0 fWAR, his seventh straight season with more than 2.0 fWAR. Meanwhile, he also set a career low with his 14.1% strikeout rate, and he'll no doubt be a big presence in the middle of the lineup. Defensively, though, he's more of a question mark. It looks like, as of now, he'll play first base with defensive question mark Rhys Hoskins moving to the outfield. Hoskins is not a butcher, but he's also not great out there, so Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr/Nick Williams (whoever ends up starting) will need to step up to make up for Hosksins. However, that's a small problem to have considering Santana's bat. For his career, the Dominican has 174 home runs, a .249/.365/.445 slash line, and 23.0 fWAR over 1116 games.

Cardinals Send Stephen Piscotty Home to Oakland A's

A's Get: Stephen Piscotty: 9 HR, .235/.342/.367, 3 SB, 92 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

Cardinals Get: Max Schrock: 7 HR, .321/.379/.422, 4 SB, 128 wRC+ at AA

Yairo Munoz: 13 HR, .300/.330/.464, 22 SB, 109 wRC+ at AA and AAA

The Stephen Piscotty trade makes for a pretty good story. Piscotty, a San Francisco Bay Area native, had a down year in 2017 as his mother was diagnosed with ALS and he struggled with balancing the demands of professional baseball with his mother's illness. In response, the Cardinals made a classy move and shipped him from St. Louis across the country to Oakland, where he can play just a half hour from his hometown of Pleasanton. Playing closer to his mother, Piscotty could see a big bounce back and look more like his 2016 self, where he slashed .273/.343/.457 with 22 home runs over 153 games, good for a 116 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. That stands in contrast to 2017, where he slashed .235/.342/.367 with nine home runs in 107 games, good for a 92 wRC+ and 0.2 fWAR. The A's aren't quite contenders yet, but he joins a young core that includes Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Chase Pinder, and the up and coming Franklin Barreto and Renato Nunez on offense as well a slew of arms. Due to the big extension he signed prior to the 2017 season, he's under contract for five years and just over $32 million, plus a $15 million club option for 2023, which means he'll be around by the time the A's start contending. If he can maintain his high walk rate and get back to his old ways of hitting, Piscotty is one of the players the A's will build around for the next half decade. For his career, the former Stanford Cardinal has 38 home runs, a .268/.346/.438 slash line, and 4.2 fWAR over 323 games.

Going back to St. Louis are two great prospects in Max Schrock and Yairo Munoz. Schrock, a 13th round pick out of the University of South Carolina by the Nationals in 2015, has become a fan favorite due to his gritty play. The 5'8" second baseman has simply hit and hit and hit everywhere he has gone, and that was certainly the case in 2017. In 106 games with AA Midland this year, he slashed .321/.379/.422 with seven home runs, good for a 128 wRC+. He also put up a very respectable 42/34 strikeout to walk ratio, and while that 7.4% walk rate could use a little bump, his 9.2% strikeout rate is sufficiently low enough to bring confidence in his ability to carry his hitting to the highest level. Schrock is definitely a name to watch in St. Louis. Equally highly regarded is Yairo Munoz, a 22 year old infielder who reached AAA in 2017. Starting with AA Midland, Munoz proved to be too much for the league, slashing .316/.348/.532 with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 47 games (good for a 140 wRC+), earning a promotion to AAA Nashville. There, he more than held his own, slashing .289/.316/.414 with seven home runs and ten stolen bases in 65 games (good for an 86 wRC+). At this point, learning to draw more walks could raise his value significantly, but maintaining his average power in the big leagues would also be a boon. If he does both, he could be the Cardinals' starting third baseman within a couple years. If not, he still profiles as a solid utility man who can play all over the diamond, including shortstop.

Nationals Re-Sign Brandon Kintzler

Brandon Kintzler: 4-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 39/16 K/BB, 71.1 IP
Two years, $10 million. Option for 2020, plus incentives could bring deal to $16 million

The back of the Nationals' bullpen will look similar to last year, as Brandon Kintzler is returning on a two year deal and Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson never left. The Nationals acquired Kintzler from the Twins at the trade deadline for a minor league arm, and he threw for a 3.46 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings down the stretch. Unlike many relievers nowadays, he doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, instead relying on weak contact and ground balls. In fact, he had a 54.9% ground ball rate in 2017 as well as a 25.7% hard contact rate, leading to a .271 opponents' BABIP. His deal is worth $10 million over two years, but if incentives are met and the 2020 option is exercised, it could be a three year deal worth $16 million. For his career, the righty out of Dixie State is 14-14 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 208/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 306.2 innings. 

Angels Fill Second Base Hole with Ian Kinsler

Angels Get: Ian Kinsler: 22 HR, .236/.313/.412, 14 SB, 90 wRC+, 2.4 fWAR

Tigers Get: Troy Montgomery: 8 HR, .271/.358/.413, 15 SB, 113 wRC+ at Class A, High Class A, and AA

Wilkel Hernandez: 4-1, 2.64 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 44/22 K/BB, 44.1 IP at AZL and Rookie

The suddenly-contending Angels addressed another glaring hole in their roster, adding Ian Kinsler to play second base. Kinsler is a veteran who is clearly on the down-slope of his career, but he's still a great player who can provide value to a contending team. Over 139 games for the Tigers this year, he slashed .236/.313/.412 with 22 home runs and 14 stolen bases, and had he hit one more home run in 2010, it would have been his twelfth straight season with double digit home runs and stolen bases. With Kinsler on board, the Angels can now turn to shoring up their pitching staff behind Shohei Ohtani and Garrett Richards (and in my opinion a consistent innings-eater like Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, or C.C. Sabathia should do the trick if they choose the free agent route), and Kinsler will get to work hitting. He's under contract for $11 million for 2018 but will be a free agent after the season. He also provides value on defense, in fact enough to convert his 91 wRC+ to a season worth 2.4 fWAR. We can also expect his offensive numbers to get a bump from moving away from a pitcher-friendly park in Detroit. For his career, the former Missouri Tiger has 234 home runs, a .273/.342/.447 slash line, 225 stolen bases, and 46.4 fWAR over 1673 games.

The Tigers don't get any big names for Kinsler, but they are moving $11 million in salary and he is under contract for just one season. Troy Montgomery was drafted in the eighth round out of Ohio State in 2016, and a successful season saw the 23 year old outfielder reach AA in 2017. Starting off at Class A Burlington, he slashed .256/.418/.465 with a pair of home runs an a ridiculous 4/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 15 games, earning a quick promotion to High Class A Inland Empire. There, in the hitter-friendly California League, he slashed .282/.348/.443 with six home runs and nine stolen bases over 65 games, not excellent production by Cal League standards, but enough to earn a second promotion to AA Mobile. In 20 games to close out the season, he scuffled a bit, slashing .235/.350/.265 with a pair of doubles accounting for his only extra base hits, though he did steal four bases. He is a smart hitter who takes his walks, and he stands out on defense for his speed. He profiles well as a fourth outfielder, but if his power comes along, he could see some starts as a center fielder. Wilkel Hernandez is an 18 year old right handed pitcher out of Venezuela with success in a limited track record in the minors. After dominating the Dominican Summer League in five starts as a 17 year old in 2016, he moved up to the Arizona League in 2017 and put up a 2.61 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in eleven games (seven starts), striking out 42 and walking 20 in 41.1 innings. Moved up to Rookie level Orem for one relief appearance at the end of the season, he held Idaho Falls (Royals) to one run on two hits and two walks over three innings, striking out two. He's a project who is a long, long way away from the majors, but he turns just 19 in April and is loaded with a low 90's fastball from a projectable 6'3" frame. He may have to convert to relief if he can't refine his secondary pitches, but he's an exciting wild card of a prospect who could end up being very good.

After Missing on Stanton, Cardinals Acquire Marlins' Ozuna

Cardinals Get: Marcell Ozuna: 37 HR, .312/.376/.548, 1 SB, 142 wRC+, 4.8 fWAR

Marlins Get: Sandy Alcantara: 0-0, 4.32 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 10/6 K/BB, 8.1 IP

Magneuris Sierra: 0 HR, .317/.359/.317, 2 SB, 86 wRC+, 0.0 fWAR

Zac Gallen: 10-8, 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 121/35 K/BB, 147.2 IP at High Class A, AA, and AAA

Daniel Castano: 9-3, 2.57 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 91 IP at Class A Short Season

After Stanton, the trade of Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals is perhaps the biggest this offseason. St. Louis is a team with very real playoff aspirations, but an outfield of Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, and Stephen Piscotty/Randal Grichuk isn't quite enough for a World Series run. With Piscotty likely to be dealt to the A's, Ozuna can step in and seriously upgrade the team. He'll immediately be the best bat in the lineup, slotting right in the middle with Fowler, Pham, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Paul DeJong, and Yadier Molina around him. He has two years of arbitration left, meaning the Cardinals will have him cheap in both 2018 and 2019, and they'll be his age 27 and 28 seasons. You might not have heard about it because of his small market team, but Ozuna blossomed from an above-average hitter to one who straight up mashed in 2017. A year after slashing a respectable .266/.321/.452 with 23 home runs in 2016, good for a 106 wRC+ and 2.5 fWAR, Ozuna got onto another level this year, slashing .312/.376/.548 with 37 home runs, a 142 wRC+, and 4.8 fWAR in 2017, earning a spot in his second straight All Star Game. His 142 wRC+ was good for 15th in all of baseball, slotting him ahead of such names as Charlie Blackmon (141), Zack Cozart (141), George Springer (140), and Cody Bellinger (138). Even with defense that Fangraphs rated as overall negative in value, his 4.8 fWAR was enough to place him 21st among all MLB position players. His arm helped him "save" ten runs defensively, netting him a Gold Glove, and he has turned himself into a real asset. Are we due for some regression in 2018? Probably, when you consider his career-high .355 BABIP (versus .327 for his career), but you can also look at his career-high 39.1% hard-hit rate and career-high 9.4% walk rate and think their might have been something going on. For his career, the Dominican has 96 home runs and a .277/.329/.457 slash line, racking up 14.2 fWAR in 653 games, all with the Marlins.

For the Cardinals, this trade injects a huge amount of talent into a completely barren farm system, even after the Stanton and Gordon trades. Their top two prospects (according to MLB.com), Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett, combined to throw just 15.1 professional innings (all Garrett) in their entire careers. However, with the big haul coming in, their farm system immediately jumps from "awful" to "mediocre," and that's a big leap. Sandy Alcantara, a 22 year old Dominican fireballer, is one of two headliners in the package. He spent the minor league season with AA Springfield, putting up so-so numbers (4.31 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 106/54 K/BB in 125.1 innings), but was promoted to the majors in September and held his own (4.32 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 10/6 K/BB in 8.1 innings). His best pitch is his fastball, which sits in the mid to upper 90's and reaches 100 at times, followed by a pretty good changeup. His curveball is average right now, but a live arm like Alcantara's could tighten it in time. He's a string bean at 6'4" and 170 pounds and has the ceiling of a #2 starter, but even if his command and curveball don't develop in the way the Marlins hope, he could fall back onto being an elite reliever. Co-headlining the deal is 21 year old outfielder Magneuris Sierra, a fellow Dominican who made a huge jump in 2017. Sierra began the year at High Class A Palm Beach, slashing .272/.337/.407 with three doubles, four triples, and three stolen bases in 20 games. He was promoted straight to the majors in May, and spent the rest of the season bouncing back and forth between the Cardinals and AA Springfield. With Springfield, he slashed .269/.313/.357 with one home run and 17 stolen bases in 81 games, and with St. Louis, he slashed .317/.359/.317 with no extra base hits and two stolen bases in 22 games. Sierra is young, which is a bonus, and he plays excellent defense in center field, but he also has no power to speak of and hasn't yet mastered the art of drawing walks. He already has the contact ability to stick in the majors, but if he can improve his walk rate, he could be a top of the order hitter. If not, he's an excellent fourth outfielder/defensive replacement or a good bottom of the order hitter. 22 year old right hander Zac Gallen was a personal favorite of mine during his time back at the University of North Carolina, and the Cardinals selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft. From there, he has shut down minor league hitting, starting 2017 with High Class A Palm Beach and dominating to the tune of a 1.62 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 56/10 strikeout to walk ratio in nine starts. Promoted to AA Springfield, he held his own despite being just a year removed from college ball, going 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts, striking out 42 and walking 19 in 71.1 innings. He had a few starts for AAA Memphis interspersed in there, where he put up a 3.48 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 23/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.2 innings. Gallen right now projects as a mid to back-end starter, throwing a running fastball in the low 90's, a darting cutter that contrasts well with the fastball, and a good changeup. With his above average command, he's pretty low risk, meaning it's hard to imagine him as ending up as anything less than a #5 starter. Lastly, there's Daniel Castano, a 23 year old right hander drafted in the 19th round out of Baylor in 2016. He really got going in 2017 in the Class A Short Season New York-Penn League, going 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and an 81/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 innings. He's a bit on the older side for a prospect that far away from the majors, but he'll try to jump a few levels in 2018 and could be a back-end starter with his good command.

Cubs Add Morrow to Bullpen

Brandon Morrow: 6-0, 2.06 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 50/9 K/BB, 43.2 IP
2 years, $21 million, $12 million vesting option for 2020

Having lost Wade Davis to free agency and non-tendered Hector Rondon, Brandon Morrow is a big add for the Cubs. The bullpen looks weak as it is, with Pedro Strop (2.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 60.1 IP), Carl Edwards Jr. (2.98 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 66.1 IP), and Justin Wilson (3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 58 IP) headlining what's left. Morrow adds another late inning option, as the 33 year old righty transitioned very well to relief work last season, putting up a 2.06 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 45 appearances, striking out 50 and walking nine in 43.2 innings. The difference was added power to his breaking ball and a three MPH bump in his average velocity from 95 to 98, leading to a career-high 29.4% strikeout rate to go along with a career-low 5.3% walk rate. It's important not to think of him as a replacement for Davis, as his peak last year was closer to Davis' average performance, but as an added weapon that can be used in the late innings. He was injured very often as a starter, and while that risk is somewhat lower now that he is a reliever, he's no guarantee to stay healthy throughout the year. For his career, he is 51-43 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 299 games (113 starts) since being drafted fifth overall out of Cal-Berkeley in 2006.

Yankees Acquire Stanton From Marlins

Yankees Get: Giancarlo Stanton: 59 HR, .281/.376/.631, 2 SB, 156 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR

$30 million (if Stanton does not opt out after 2020 season)

Marlins Get: Starlin Castro: 16 HR, .300/.338/.454, 2 SB, 110 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR

Jorge Guzman: 5-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 88/18 K/BB, 66.2 IP at Class A Short Season

Jose Devers: 1 HR, .245/.336/.342, 16 SB, 100 wRC+ at DSL and GCL

In the blockbuster trade we've been waiting for, the Yankees acquired reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins in exchange for Starlin Castro and two low-level prospects. Stanton comes with a massive ten year, $295 million contract that runs through 2027, though Stanton can opt out after the 2020 season, which would leave the Yankees on the hook for three years and $77 million. The Marlins have agreed to ship $30 million along with Stanton if he does not exercise his opt-out, bringing the Yankees' total cost to $265 million, but they'll get no money if he does opt out. This likely takes New York out of the running to sign Bryce Harper after the 2018 season. Stanton gives the Yankees both baseball's two premier power hitters, and he and Aaron Judge could be the most fearsome offensive combination in the game, having combined for 111 home runs last season. Stanton will likely serve as the DH as Judge plus some combination of Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury man the outfield, though Ellsbury's name has been mentioned in trade rumors. This is a very dangerous Yankees team, and if you combine their star power with their depth and farm system, we are likely seeing the beginning of a new dynasty. For Stanton himself, he is coming off an MVP season in which he crushed 59 home runs and slashed .281/.376/.631 over 159 games, posting a 156 wRC+ and racking up 6.9 fWAR. Expect his numbers to get a boost in cozy Yankee Stadium and with better hitters protecting him in the lineup, but also know that most of Stanton's home runs go so far that the fence distance doesn't really matter. For his career, the LA native has 267 home runs, a .268/.360/.554 slash line, a 144 wRC+, and 34.1 fWAR over 986 games.

The most important thing the Marlins get out of this trade is salary relief. Stanton's contract was simply too expensive for the new ownership to handle, and the Marlins are rebuilding anyways so having Stanton on the books doesn't really make sense. Starlin Castro is the lone major leaguer going back to Miami, and he will slot right in at second base, which was just vacated by the Dee Gordon trade a few days earlier. Castro is on the hook for two years and $22 million, which wouldn't even make a dent in Stanton's ten year, $295 million (or three year, $77 million) deal and is still considerably cheaper than Gordon's three years and $38 million. Castro is coming off a very good season, having slashed .300/.338/.454 with 16 home runs and a 110 wRC+ for the Yankees, good for 1.9 fWAR in 119 games. He could use a few more walks to get that on-base percentage up, but for a rebuilding team, he can be a major contributor on offense and serve as a trade chip down the line. Meanwhile, Jorge Guzman is a 21 year old right handed pitcher who was acquired from the Astros in last year's Brian McCann trade. He had a huge breakout year in 2017 in Short Season ball with Staten Island, going 5-3 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 88/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 66.2 innings over 13 starts. Guzman brings blazing heat, throwing his fastball in the upper 90's while touching 101, 102, and even 103 MPH, enough juice to strike out 33.5% of the New York-Penn League hitters he faced this year. He also possesses the rare trait of being able to command that fastball, evidenced by a 6.8% walk rate this year. However, he does come with a few downsides. Guzman has a lot of work to do on his offspeed pitches, as he can't get by on fastball alone as he moves up to full season ball and beyond. He also turns 22 in January, so while he isn't old for a prospect, we're yet to see him pitch in full season ball and he's not exactly the youngest guy around. If it all breaks right, he has mid-rotation potential, but if those offspeed pitches never develop, he'll likely be a set-up man. Jose Devers, cousin of Red Sox star Rafael Devers, is an 18 year old shortstop out of the Dominican Republic. He is very much a wild card given his age and could develop in any number of directions, but we do know that he has a very good glove and can likely stick at shortstop. After slashing .239/.255/.326 with an ugly 16/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Dominican Summer League, he improved to .246/.359/.348 with a home run and a much better 21/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games upon a promotion to the Gulf Coast League. As I said, he has a long way to go, but he'll be 18 for all of 2018 and has plenty of time to develop.

Shohei Ohtani Signs With Angels

NPB Stats

Hitting: 8 HR, 31 RBI, .332/.403/.540, 0 SB

Pitching: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.1 IP

After whittling the field down to seven teams (Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Rangers, Cubs, Padres), Japanese two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has signed with the Los Angeles Angels. This is huge news for the franchise that already has baseball's best player, Mike Trout, as Ohtani comes well below market price. After shelling out $20 million to Ohtani's Japanese team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, the Angels will kick just over $2 million to Ohtani as a signing bonus, saving a boatload of money from what they would have spent for a comparable talent on the open market. Let's start with the hitting. It is unclear what position Ohtani will play when he is not on the mound, but he will likely split time between DH and the outfield, giving the Angels a loaded Trout-Justin Upton-Ohtani outfield on some days. His hitting, in my opinion, is more of a question than his pitching, but the man can mash. He missed much of this past season to an ankle injury, but when he was on the field, he slashed .332/.403/.540 with eight home runs in 65 games. Back in 2016, when he was healthy, he crushed 22 home runs and slashed .322/.416/.588 in 104 games, showcasing big time power and an ability to get on base. I am a bit troubled by his strikeout rate, which sits at 26.3% over the past two seasons compared to a 12.7% walk rate, as he may have difficulty hitting superior major league pitching. He's more of a sure thing as a pitcher, where he'll slot into a banged up rotation that includes some combination of Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs, J.C. Ramirez, Andrew Heaney, and Parker Bridwell. None of those six threw more than 147.1 innings last year, and only Ramirez and Bridwell even threw more than 85. Ohtani's fastball sits in the upper 90's and was once clocked at 102.5 MPH, the fastest in Japanese history. Meanwhile, he brings a slew of offspeed pitches that can all grade as plus, giving him weapons galore to use against major league hitters. In his injury-limited 2017 in Japan, he posted a 3.20 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over five starts, striking out 29 and walking 19 in 25.1 innings. However, his healthy 2016 stats tell the real story, as he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts, striking out 174 and walking 45 in 140 innings. At this point, it looks like the only thing that could do him in on the mound are walks, so if he keeps those down, he could be an ace. Remember, he doesn't even turn 24 until July. This is a truly special talent. There is still work to be done, as they need at least one more consistent starter, and there is a gaping hole at second base. If they fill those spots and Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, and C.J. Cron can bounce back, they will give the Astros a run for their money in the AL West. Angels, get to work.

Mariners Acquire Dee Gordon, Signing Space for Prospects

Mariners Get: Dee Gordon, 2 HR, .308/.341/.375, 60 SB, 92 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR
$1 million in international signing bonus space
Marlins Get: Nick Neidert: 11-6, 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 122/22 K/BB, 127.2 IP at High Class A and AA
Robert Dugger: 6-6, 2.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 116/32 K/BB, 117.2 IP at Class A and High Class A
Chris Torres: 6 HR, .238/.329/.446, 14 SB, 116 wRC+ at AZL and Class A Short Season

This Marlins-Mariners trade has many implications. The Marlins are rebuilding and looking to dump salary, so shipping Dee Gordon and the three years and $38 million left on his contract to Seattle makes perfect sense. However, before I get to Gordon, perhaps the biggest news of this trade is that the Mariners now have $3.5575 million to offer Ohtani, shooting them to first place among the seven suitors (Rangers #2 at $3.535 million, Angels #3 at $2.315 million). If they sign Ohtani, this deal was a win, no questions asked. However, they do have a nice piece in Dee Gordon, the speedy second baseman with 212 stolen bases over the past four seasons. With Robinson Cano already at second base, Gordon will slide to centerfield despite never having played the outfield, but his speed should help him do just fine there. If you don't believe me, Billy Hamilton was a shortstop before the Reds moved him to center, and now he's arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the National League. Unfortunately for Gordon, most of his value comes from speed and defense, as he doesn't walk much and has never hit more than four home runs in a game. Fortunately, with all those singles, he still posted an on-base percentage of .341 in 2017, though it could get much higher if he became more patient. His 52.2% swing percentage was 20th highest in baseball this year, while his 36.6% O-swing percentage (out of zone) was 17th highest. He was able to keep his strikeout rates down because of his 77.9% O-contact percentage (9th highest in baseball), but this also suppresses his walks. If he can cut down on his chase rate just a little in Seattle, not only will it help his OBP, but he will also get numerous more chances to use his devastating speed on the bases. For his career, the Orlando area native has eleven home runs, a .293/.329/.367 slash line, and 278 stolen bases over 711 games for 11.6 total fWAR.

In return for their leadoff man and money, the Marlins got three prospects and salary relief. With Gordon's three years and $38 million off the books, Miami may have just a little more money to package with Giancarlo Stanton on his potential trade, increasing the value of prospects they could get in return. In terms of minor leaguers, the most prominent is 6'1" right hander Nick Neidert, a second round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015. Neidert dominated the hitter-friendly High Class A California League in 2017, going 10-3 with a 2.76 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 109 and walking 17 in 104.1 innings for Modesto. However, upon a promotion to AA Arkansas, he struggled in his six starts, going 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP over 23.1 innings, striking out just 13 and walking five. While his command and changeup stand out, scouts don't like his breaking ball, and his future might hinge on his repeat performance in AA in 2018. If he struggles again, the Marlins could opt to push him to the bullpen where his fastball/changeup combination could play up, but if he gets a hold of the level and starts missing more bats, he could be a nice mid to back end starter in the bigs. 6'2" right hander Robert Dugger was an 18th round pick out of Texas Tech in 2016, but he upped his stock considerably with a successful 2017. Beginning with Class A Clinton, he went 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 22 games (9 starts), striking out 69 to just 16 walks in 72 innings. Promoted to High Class A Modesto, he held his own in the hitter-friendly California League, going 2-5 with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over nine starts with 47 strikeouts to 16 walks in 45.2 innings. He has a ways to go, but the Mariners got good value out of a mid-round pick and the Marlins will look to develop a future starter. Lastly, shortstop Chris Torres just made it out of complex ball this year, but he also doesn't turn 20 until February. In 52 games this year (48 of which were in Short Season ball with Everett), Torres slashed .238/.329/.446 with six home runs and 14 stolen bases, striking out 69 times while drawing 28 walks. The numbers don't quite capture his strengths, as he is more of a contact hitter than a power guy. His best attribute is his defense, as he should be able to stick at shortstop all the way up the ladder, but his offense needs to come around for him to get the chance. At 19, he has plenty of time to develop into a future utility guy. 

Cubs Sign Chatwood to Three Year Deal

Tyler Chatwood: 8-15, 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 120/77 K/BB, 147.2 IP
Three years, $38 million

Having lost Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency, the Cubs added Tyler Chatwood on a three year deal worth $38 million. This could be huge for both Chatwood and the Cubs, as he has sneakily been very good despite many factors working against him. One such factor was his home park, Coors Field, and he posted a 4.69 ERA because of it. However, that ERA comes out to a 94 ERA- (6% better than league average) when adjusted for park effects, and he was far better on the road than at home, even by Rockies standards. At home, he was 3-8 with a 6.01 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP, while on the road he went 5-7 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. These splits were even more pronounced in 2016, when his 3.87 overall ERA was split between 6.12 at home and 1.69 on the road. In fact, that 1.69 road ERA in 2016 was the best among all MLB starters by a long shot, well ahead of second place Rich Hill (1.89) and third place Steven Wright (2.09). Point is, don't just look at Chatwood's ERA and thing the Cubs are overpaying for a #4 or #5 starter. Pitching full time away from Coors Field, Chatwood is a #3 starter with a chance to be even better, and he cost the Cubs less than $40 million. The Cubs could go forward with their current rotation (which also includes Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Eddie Butler), but Butler carries a bit of risk and a contending team such as the Cubs may want to go out and find someone to compete with him. If Butler falters, prospect Jen-Ho Tseng is the most obvious option, though fellow prospects Thomas Hatch, Adbert Alzolay, Duane Underwood, and Alec Mills could be ready by mid-season. Chatwood is just about to turn 28, making him one of the youngest free agents available and limiting risk at the back end of his contract. For his career, the SoCal native is 40-46 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 130 games (113 starts), but note the 5.25 home ERA and the 3.31 road ERA.

Rangers Add Minor to Rotation

Mike Minor: 6-6, 2.55 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 88/22 K/BB, 77.2 IP
Three Years, $28 million, 10 Team No-Trade Clause

Not long after adding Doug Fister to their thin rotation, the Rangers have picked up starter-turned-reliever Mike Minor to give them options. Minor was a solid starter for the Braves from 2010-2014, posting his best season in 2013 by going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 32 starts. However, he missed all of 2015 and 2016 with shoulder problems, then returned as a reliever with the Royals in 2017 with great success. Over 65 appearances, he posted a 2.55 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, an 88/22 strikeout to walk ratio, and a 17.47 RE24 over 77.2 innings. The Rangers plan to slot him back into the rotation, where he'll work behind Cole Hamels, Martin Perez, and Doug Fister. The fifth starter spot is unclear at the moment, though the Rangers did bring back the non-tendered Chi Chi Gonzalez and rookie Yohander Mendez will look to make an impact. Minor hasn't started a major league game since 2014, so the move to the rotation is not be a certainty, but it is where the Rangers are leaning. If the rotation bid fails without him getting hurt, there is no reason he can't come back as a shut-down reliever like he was with Kansas City. For his career, the Vanderbilt alumnus is 44-42 with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 176 games (110 starts).

Cardinals Trade Aledmys Diaz to Blue Jays

Blue Jays Get: Aledmys Diaz (7 HR, .259/.290/.392, 4 SB, 78 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR)

Cardinals Get: Minor leaguer J.B. Woodman (7 HR, .240/.320/.378, 8 SB, 98 wRC+ at Class A)

The Jays and Cardinals pulled off a minor trade, as St. Louis shipped infielder Aledmys Diaz to Toronto for minor league outfielder J.B. Woodman. With Kolten Wong, Greg Garcia, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, and the emergence of Paul DeJong, Diaz became expendable, and Blue Jays' middle infielders Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis missing time to injury, Diaz is good depth. He may not be quite starter quality, but he is a solid back-up who can handle starting duties without being a liability. He had a very strong rookie season in 2016, slashing .300/.369/.510 with 17 home runs, a 133 wRC+, and 2.7 fWAR in 111 games, but his performance dropped off in 2017. Over 79 games, he slashed .259/.290/.392 with seven home runs, a 78 wRC+, and 0.2 fWAR, so it's difficult to predict exactly how he'll be in 2018. His walk rate also plummeted in 2017, dropping from 8.9% to 4.3%. He'll need to pick that back up if he wants to be productive in 2018. However, he is under team control for five years, so he has plenty of time to bounce back.

22 year old outfielder J.B. Woodman will go back to St. Louis after a mediocre season. He was drafted in the second round in 2016 out of Ole Miss (though he ranked in fourth round territory in my rankings), and after a solid debut last year, he spent all of 2017 at Class A Lansing in the Midwest League. The Midwest League is a pitchers' league, but a slash line of .240/.320/.378 (98 wRC+) is pretty uninspiring for a college hitter in Class A. The Cardinals are great at developing talent, so Woodman could see more success in their system, and he could end up being a solid fourth outfielder in the future. In my opinion, the Blue Jays were the winners here.

White Sox Add Welington Castillo as Starting Catcher

Welington Castillo: 20 HR, .282/.323/.490, 0 SB, 113 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
2 years, $15 million with $8 million club option for 2020

The White Sox have absolutely nobody behind the plate right now, so they added former Orioles catcher Welington Castillo on a two year deal. Despite their super-farm system, they more than likely won't contend in 2018, but Castillo could be a big help for a potentially contending 2019 team. That $8 million option could also come in handy if Castillo plays as expected, as they'll definitely be contending by then. He's coming off a solid year for the Orioles where he slashed .282/.323/.490 with 20 home runs over 96 games, posting a 113 wRC+ and racking up 2.7 fWAR with his solid defense. He's a good all around catcher who provides value behind the plate and with his power, and his approach isn't particularly fly ball-heavy anyways (though perhaps he should be), so Camden Yards didn't add much to his power anyways. On top of that, Chicago has a short porch in right field where most of his power is, and this move could help his offensive numbers. Before signing Castillo, the White Sox had Kevan Smith (4 HR, .283/.309/.388) slated at the top of the depth chart with Omar Narvaez (2 HR, .277/.373/.340) behind him, and that won't exactly cut it.