Reviewing the Pittsburgh Pirates Farm System

The Pirates' system isn't very deep, but it has quite a few exciting prospects at the top, most notably starting pitcher Mitch Keller. Aside from Keller, it's pretty hitter-heavy, especially now with Shane Baz dealt to the Rays. Among those hitters, the Pirates have all the bases covered with power bats, on-base guys, outfielders, infielders, etc. The system is fairly average overall, though it could have been better if the Pirates had gotten more in the Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen trades.

Affiliates: AAA Indianapolis Indians, AA Altoona Curve, High A Bradenton Marauders, Class A West Virginia Power*, Short Season West Virginia Black Bears, rookie level Bristol Pirates, complex level GCL and DSL Pirates
*Class A Affiliate will move from Charleston, WV to Greensboro, NC in 2019

The Headliner: RHP Mitch Keller
22 year old Mitch Keller is the most important player in this farm system for multiple reasons. First off, he's their best prospect by a good margin, but in a system that really lacks in pitching depth, Keller keeps it from being completely empty on that front. In 2018, he went 12-4 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 135/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 142.1 innings at High A Bradenton, AA Altoona, and AAA Indianapolis, dominating the two lower levels before holding his own at the highest. He throws mid 90's with a good curveball, a decent changeup, and great command, looking like a good bet to become a future #2 starter on the right days. On the wrong days, his command can still get away from him, but those days are not common and he should be ready for the major league rotation early in 2019, perhaps even on Opening Day. I don't think he ends up an ace but he should be an immediate contributor and should hold down a #2 or #3 spot in the rotation for a long time.

High Minors Infielders: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes, 1B Will Craig, 2B Kevin Newman, 2B Kevin Kramer, SS Cole Tucker, and SS Stephen Alemais
This is by far the deepest contingent in the Pirates' farm system. They have plenty of AA and AAA infielders who will be ready in 2019, and they should have no problem plugging holes there from their farm system. The biggest name among them is 21 year old Ke'Bryan Hayes, a third baseman with a major league ready bat already. In 2018, he slashed .293/.375/.444 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 84/57 strikeout to walk ratio in 117 games at AA Altoona, showing an all around skill set that could make him a five tool player at the major league level. He has a mature approach at the plate, can steal a base, and plays great defense at third base, with the only question being his power development. He's 6'1", solidly built, and hits plenty of extra base hits, so scouts have always thought the home run power would manifest itself, but to this point it has not. If his power does not develop further, he's probably an average third baseman with a good glove, which is a win in its own right, but if he does figure out how to get the ball over the fence more often he could be a star in Pittsburgh. Across the diamond, 24 year old Will Craig hit .248/.321/.448 with 20 home runs and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games at Altoona, showing plenty of power but not always getting to it. The first baseman will need to get to that power because of his limited value on defense, though right now he looks like a bench bat rather than a starter. 25 year olds Kevin Newman and Kevin Kramer have a lot in common. Besides their first names and the fact that their last names make for fun Seinfeld jokes, they were drafted together in 2015 with Newman being a first round pick (19th overall) out of Arizona and Kramer coming in the second round (62nd overall) out of UCLA. Both are middle infielders known for hit over power, and both reached the majors for the first time in 2018. Newman slashed .302/.350/.407 with four home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at AAA Indianapolis, then hit .209/.247/.231 in 31 major league games. Meanwhile, Kramer slashed .311/.365/.492 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen base, and a 127/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Indianapolis, then .135/.175/.135 in 21 major league games. Newman has the steadier glove and is more likely to stick at shortstop, while Kramer is more likely a second baseman. At the plate, Newman makes better contact and is more likely to hit in the majors, but Kramer had a power outburst at AAA in 2018 and posted better overall numbers. I think that Newman is a better bet to be a solid utility man for the Pirates, while Kramer might break through as a starter or end up bouncing between AAA and the majors as a journeyman. 22 year old Cole Tucker has a similar profile to both, but he's younger and doesn't share a Kevin or Seinfeld connection. Tucker was a high school draftee in 2014, coming out of a Phoenix high school in the first round (24th overall) and working his way up relatively slowly. In 2018, he slashed .259/.333/.356 with five home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Altoona, showing off great speed like Newman as well as a very competent glove at shortstop. However, his bat is a bit light, and while he is good at drawing walks, he probably ends up a utility infielder if he doesn't add at least a little bit of punch. However, if he can keep his on-base percentages high enough to allow him to steal a lot of bases, he could squeeze his way into a starting lineup even without power. Lastly, 23 year old Stephen Alemais is definitely a utility prospect, having slashed .279/.346/.346 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 69/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at Altoona. His skill set is similar to Newman's overall, with a good glove for shortstop and a very good approach, but he has even less sock in his bat than Newman with virtually no power. His glove will get him to the majors, but he'll have to get on base to stay there as a utility glove.

And Four Outfielders: Bryan Reynolds, Jason Martin, Jared Oliva, and Tyler Gaffney
There are four upper level outfielders to track, and all are recent additions to the system. 23 year old Bryan Reynolds, who came over in the Andrew McCutchen trade, had a decent year at AA Altoona by slashing .302/.381/.438 with seven home runs and a 73/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, showing an advanced approach and the ability to barrel the ball up and get on base, but with fringy power. He could push his way to a starting spot if he continues to post high on-base percentages like he has been in the minors, but somehow adding more power will be the best way to crack the everyday lineup. Otherwise, he's likely a fourth outfielder, albeit a good one. 23 year old Jason Martin came over in the Gerrit Cole trade, ironically having attended the same Los Angeles-area high school as Cole. He had a good year in the upper minors, slashing .274/.337/.429 with 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 113/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Altoona and AAA Indianapolis. He was much better at Altoona (.325/.392/.522) than at Indianapolis (.211/.270/.319), which is a bit worrisome but which could also be ironed out with more reps in 2019. Like Reynolds, he looks like a fourth outfielder for now but could push his way to starting if he can make adjustments at the plate and carry his consistent hard contact up to the next level. 23 year old Jared Oliva was just drafted in the seventh round out of Arizona in 2017, but he made a bit of a name for himself with a solid season this year at High A Bradenton, slashing .275/.354/.424 with nine home runs, 33 stolen bases, and a 91/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games. He's kind of a fringy hitter both in terms of contact and power, but he can draw a walk and steal a base, making him an average overall offensive contributor. He's also average on defense, playing a decent center field, so he could work his way up to the majors as a fourth outfielder. Unlike Reynolds and Martin, though, I think it's unlikely that he manages to grab a starting role. Lastly, 27 year old Tyler Gaffney isn't exactly a conventional prospect, having spent the 2014-2017 seasons bouncing around NFL practice squads and injured reserve lists as a running back, technically winning Super Bowls XLIX and LI without actually playing a game. Now he's back in baseball, and he slashed .244/.353/.388 with six home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 54/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at High A Bradenton and Altoona. He's unlikely to make an impact on the Pirates, but he's an interesting story to watch.

Lower Level Hitters: 3B Oneil Cruz, OF Travis Swaggerty, OF Calvin Mitchell, OF Lolo Sanchez, OF Conner Uselton, and OF Brett Kinneman
The Pirates have a good amount of high ceiling talent down at the bottom of the system, though aside from Swaggerty, they all have high bust potential. You typically like depth this low in the system, though while the Pirates don't have that, at least there are quite a few with high ceilings. 20 year old Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting prospects in the system, having just slashed .286/.343/.488 with 14 home runs, 11 stolen bases, and a 100/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at Class A West Virginia. He has a pretty unique prospect profile, with a recent growth spurt leaving him at 6'6" and potentially forcing him to move off of shortstop. He's still very athletic for his size, but the growth spurt affects his hitting as well. His fairly advanced approach allowed him to handle Class A pitching very well as a teenager this past season, and his big swing produced 46 extra base hits (including 14 home runs). However, he still swings and misses a lot because of the length of his swing, so he'll have to continue to tighten it up as he gets more coordinated. The ceiling is exceptional here, as he could end up an impact player both on offense and defense, but the risk is high as well. 21 year old Travis Swaggerty was just drafted in the first round (10th overall) out of South Alabama in 2018, slashing a respectable .239/.322/.383 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 58/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games in short season ball and at Class A. Though he's just 5'11", he has nice power as well as a patient approach at the plate, which will bode well for him both in the on-base percentage and slugging percentage departments, plus his speed enables him to steal bases and play a good center field. Overall, he has five-tool upside, and with his patient, a advanced approach, his only real downside is in the strikeout department. Keeping his strikeouts down, which is not a given, will help him be a potential All Star in the majors, and he has a fairly high floor as a fourth outfielder. 19 year old Calvin Mitchell surprised some evaluators with a good year with Class A West Virginia this year, slashing .280/.344/.427 with ten home runs and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games. He was at one point considered a potential first round pick in 2017 before a rough spring dropped him to the second round (50th overall), where the Pirates took him with hopes of getting him back on the right track. His solid performance in Class A as a teenager showed that he is, though the Pirates do want that power to develop because he's not great defensively in the outfield. If the power does develop, he could end up a starter in Pittsburgh, but if it doesn't, or if it causes him to strike out more, there is bust risk at the higher levels. 19 year old Lolo Sanchez is a bit more under the radar than the 6'6" shortstop and high draft picks ahead of him on this list, but he's a solid sleeper prospect with breakout potential for 2019. This year, he slashed .243/.322/.328 with four home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 72/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A West Virginia, playing good outfield defense along the way. His stats don't stand out, but he doesn't turn 20 until April, by which time he'll already be in High A, and he seems to have a good grasp of handling older pitching. Though he lacks power, the rest of his game is pretty advanced and those guys can sneak up on you when they reach the majors. 20 year old Conner Uselton has a similar profile to Mitchell, though he has been slow in getting his pro career started due to injuries. In 2018, he slashed .225/.280/.250 with a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 43 games at rookie level Bristol, making it more or less a lost season for him. Once he gets healthy and going in 2019, he has a chance to show off some of the best raw power in the system, though he will have to watch his strikeouts. Consider him a wild card at this point, one who could shake off the slow start and end up being a 30 homer bat in the majors or who could end up fizzling out in A ball. Lastly, I'm a fan of 22 year old Brett Kinneman, a seventh round pick out of NC State in 2018 who slashed .253/.344/.413 with four home runs and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in short season ball. He has some strikeout issues and isn't as polished as some other prospects his age, but he has a ton of power, draws plenty of walks, and could be a sleeper prospect who opens eyes in 2019. Keep an eye on him.

The Pitchers After Keller: LHP Brandon Waddell, RHP Clay Holmes, RHP Luis Escobar, RHP Travis MacGregor, RHP Steven Jennings, and RHP Braxton Ashcraft
It's a good thing that the Pirates have Mitch Keller, because otherwise, there really isn't much pitching depth in this system. Some guys near the top look like they could be marginal contributors, while others in the middle come with some upside and risk but aren't anything exciting yet, and the only other impact prospect beyond Keller was Shane Baz, who was traded to Tampa in the Chris Archer deal. It also doesn't help that they have failed to sign two high draft picks over the last couple of seasons, including 2016 41st overall pick Nick Lodolo and 2018 36th overall pick Gunnar Hoglund, who are now pitching at TCU and Ole Miss, respectively. We'll start with 24 year old Brandon Waddell, a starter who posted a 3.59 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 103/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 135.1 innings between AA Altoona and AAA Indianapolis, performing better at the lower level (2.68 ERA) than at the higher one (4.19 ERA). The 6'3" lefty is a pretty average pitcher across the board, showing a low 90's fastball with a decent slider and changeup that he controls well enough, making him a candidate to be a #5 starter in the majors but not much more. He could be up in 2019, and if he doesn't make the rotation, the Pirates may be inclined to use him as a long reliever. 25 year old Clay Holmes is a slightly different pitcher, having posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings, all but six of which came with Indianapolis. He also threw 26.1 major league innings, posting a 6.84 ERA and an ugly 21/23 strikeout to walk ratio along the way. Holmes doesn't throw all that hard either, but his fastball has movement and he can turn it into a cutter when he wants to, though the rest of his stuff, like Waddell's, is average. I think he ends up a reliever, where his stuff can jump a little, and he could contribute from that role in 2019. Behind Waddell and Holmes is 22 year old Luis Escobar, who posted a 4.14 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings between High A Bradenton and Altoona. His stuff is better than both Waddell's and Holmes', with his fastball sitting comfortably in the low 90's and hitting the mid 90's and his curveball featuring more power. However, his strike throwing ability has not come along yet, so that will be the next step in developing as a starter. If not, he could make a pretty good reliever, but the upside is a little higher than the two names above him on this list. 21 year old Travis MacGregor had a nice season, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 80/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.2 innings, mostly at Class A West Virginia. He throws just as hard if not harder than Escobar, though the rest of his game is pretty raw and he'll need to improve his secondary stuff as he climbs the ladder. He's another pitcher in the "starter for now, possibly a reliever later" group. However, we'll have to wait to find out because he'll miss 2019 with Tommy John surgery. 20 year old Steven Jennings, a second round pick (42nd overall) out of a Tennessee high school in 2017, has been slow to get things going in the minors, posting a 4.82 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 53/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings at rookie level Bristol. Ironically, he's a more complete pitcher than perhaps any name above him on this list except for Waddell, throwing in the low 90's with a full assortment of secondary pitches, all of which he can command reasonably well. However, he hasn't been able to turn anything into a weapon yet, hence his struggles in the Appalachian League, so the Pirates will have to continue to work with him to ensure he can continue to learn to use what he has to keep hitters off balance. 19 year old Braxton Ashcraft was just drafted in the second round (51st overall) out of a Waco high school in 2018, just getting his start with a 4.58 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 12/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.2 innings in complex ball. He throws a good fastball/slider combination, and at 6'5" he's projectable enough to add more velocity, but obviously he is young and raw and will need time to develop. There is mid rotation starter upside but of course plenty of risk.

Astros Add Gerrit Cole to Mega Rotation

Astros Get: Gerrit Cole: 12-12, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 196/55 K/BB, 203 IP

Pirates Get: Joe Musgrove: 7-8, 4.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 98/28 K/BB, 109.1 IP

Colin Moran: 1 HR, .364/.417/.818, 0 SB, 223 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR

Michael Feliz: 4-2, 5.63 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 70/22 K/BB, 48 IP

Minor leaguer Jason Martin: 18 HR, .278/.332/.487, 16 SB, 127 wRC+ at High Class A and AA

The Astros did really, really well in trading for Gerrit Cole, doing so without giving up top prospects Forrest Whitley, Kyle Tucker, or J.B. Bukauskas. Cole now joins Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton in one of the best rotations assembled in recent memory. Verlander is past his prime but is still very effective, Keuchel won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015 and is still very effective, McCullers can be dominant when healthy, and Morton experience a career revival last season by just "throwing harder." Cole's career in Pittsburgh was up and down, most notably up in 2015 when he went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 32 starts, and most notably down in 2016 when he was limited to 21 starts by arm troubles and finished 7-10 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. His ERA was up at 4.26 this past season, but he got his WHIP back down to 1.25 and his strikeout rate up from 19.4% to 23.1% and his walk rate down from 7.1% to 6.5%. He also allowed a ton of home runs, 31 to be exact, plagued by the eighth highest home run to fly ball rate in baseball (15.9%). Normally a fairly ground ball oriented pitcher, he had the highest fly ball rate of his career in 2017 (33.7%), another thing that may have contributed to his inflated ERA. Cole is no ace, but he fits right into a stacked Astros rotation and gives them arguably the best shot to win it all in 2018. Plus, he's under contract for just $6.75 million in 2018 and whatever he makes in arbitration for 2019 (probably around $10 million), which is certainly a bargain. For his career, the former first overall pick out of UCLA is 59-42 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 127 starts.

Overall, it's a pretty disappointing package for a name-brand starter, but the Pirates did get four useful players to work with. Among the haul going back to Pittsburgh, pitcher Joe Musgrove has had the biggest MLB impact so far. Musgrove first caught nationwide attention in 2015, when as a 22 year old he went 12-1 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP across three minor league levels, striking out 99 and walking just eight over 100.2 innings. He has spent most of 2016 and 2017 in the majors, mostly as a starter but also at times as a reliever. He has been capable in his 25 career starts (8-12, 5.37 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 114/38 K/BB), but he appears to be on another level in 24 appearances as a long reliever (3-0, 1.26 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 39/6 K/BB). The Pirates can use Musgrove and his top notch command as a starter if they'd like, but those relief numbers are pretty exciting, and he could fill a Chris Devenski type role in Pittsburgh. For his career, Musgrove is 11-12 with a 4.52 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 49 games (25 starts). Third baseman Colin Moran, like Cole and Musgrove, was a first round pick, but he has taken some time to get going and hasn't quite filled his potential. He was blocked in Houston behind Alex Bregman at third base and behind Yulieski Gurriel and A.J. Reed at first base, but he could fill in for David Freese at third base in Pittsburgh when necessary and possibly even take over for him in 2019 if the Pirates decline his $6 million option. A power hitter at UNC, Moran finally got going at AAA Fresno in 2017, cracking 18 home runs and slashing .308/.373/.543 over 79 games, striking out 55 times with 31 walks. He crushed the ball in twelve major league plate appearances, knocking two singles, a triple, and a home run while walking once and striking out once. He turned 25 in October, and he'll look for the change of scenery to get him going. Righty Michael Feliz is a power reliever who has struck out major league hitters in bunches over the past two seasons, at a 35.2% rate in 2016 and a 32.1% rate in 2017. He was a bit too hittable in 2017 and finished with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 46 appearances, but at just 24 years old, the Pirates can try to refine him and help him use his velocity to the fullest. For his career, Feliz is 12-3 with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 172/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 appearances. Lastly, minor league outfielder Jason Martin continued his 2016 power breakout into 2017, clubbing 18 home runs between High A Buies Creek and AA Corpus Christi. With Buies Creek, Martin hit seven home runs and slashed .287/.354/.494 over 46 games, picking up nine stolen bases along the way. Against the tougher pitching in AA, he didn't lose much production, hitting eleven home runs and slashing .273/.319/.483 with seven stolen bases in 79 games. Aside from his walk rate dropping from 10.1% to 5.9%, pretty much his whole game translated up from the High A Carolina League to the AA Texas League without a hitch, and he has a chance to serve as a fourth outfielder for the Pirates in the near future, if not a regular if he can continue to translate his skills upwards.