Showing posts with label Gavin Turley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gavin Turley. Show all posts

Monday, September 5, 2022

The top 12 unsigned high school position players from the 2022 draft

Only six college players from my 225-deep 2022 draft rankings are returning to school, but we have a lot more on the high school side heading to campus. We'll start by looking at the position players, ranked by where they fell on my 2022 board. Previous names to show up on this list include future/potential future first rounders Brooks Lee, Spencer Jones, Kevin Parada, Daniel Susac, Dylan Crews, Enrique Bradfield, and...you get the point. There are plenty of premium bats starting classes as we speak, many who could make an impact immediately at their new schools and some who may take a few years, like Jones, but the vast majority of these names will likely be major contributors if past lists are any indication. LSU is the only school to land multiple names on here and they have three, and they were also the only school with multiple names on the pitchers list as well. Throw in their incredible transfer class, and you have the most talented team in college baseball on paper.

1. SS Max Martin, Rutgers. My 2022 draft rank: #54.
Rutgers has to be thrilled to land Max Martin, a New Jersey native who is equally thrilled to represent his home state rather than follow his neighbors down south to schools like Maryland, Virginia, and UNC, which regularly poach the area for talent. Martin is the best high school prospect to reach New Brunswick in a long time, in fact one of the best high school prospects in a while to reach the Big Ten as a whole. He was a trendy name over the winter as one of the class's fastest risers and had a chance to hit his way into the first round with a strong spring, but didn't quite live up to expectations and here we are. Martin is an explosive hitter that shows big bat speed from the right side, producing high exit velocities from a line drive approach that could help him grow into average or better power despite a smaller 6', 180 pound frame. He makes a ton of hard contact and looked great at times over the summer and in the fall against high quality pitching, though he didn't beat up his South Jersey high school competition as much as hoped this spring. A plus runner that shows plenty of range at shortstop, he has enough arm strength to stick at shortstop at least throughout his time at Rutgers, if not beyond. The Philadelphia-area native is a high-IQ player that could slot into the Scarlet Knights' lineup from day one, and if he proves that last spring was only a fluke, he could become Rutgers' first first round pick since Todd Frazier in 2007. In any case, he should at least be the first Rutgers player selected in the first five rounds since Patrick Kivlehan was a fourth rounder in 2012.

2. OF Gavin Turley, Oregon State. My 2022 draft rank: #69.
If you're looking for this year's Dylan Crews, there are some parallels in Gavin Turley, though Turley is not nearly as polished as Crews was two years ago. Despite being raw all around, the fact that Oregon State's entire outfield was drafted in the top eight rounds means that Turley could jump straight into an every day role, and head coach Mitch Canham would be thrilled if that happened. What Turley lacks in polish, he makes up in raw ability. He shows off tremendous raw power from a big, explosive right handed swing that produces huge exit velocities, though his approach is raw and he doesn't quite have the barrel control you need to hit Pac-12 pitching just yet. If he does end up being thrust into the lineup right away, that could lead to some growing pains, but the ceiling is huge and I can't imagine it will take him too long to adjust. Meanwhile, he is also a plus-plus runner with a plus arm that could become a monster on the defensive side of the ball as well. Similarly to his hitting, his defense is raw and he'll need to improve his instincts to play center field, so it seems more likely he'd end up in right field to start out. Turley is every bit talented enough to swing his way into the top half of the first round after three years in Corvallis, but he does have a ways to go to reach that ceiling.

3. C Malcolm Moore, Stanford. My 2022 draft rank: #70.
Stanford got highly acclaimed prep Drew Bowser to campus two years ago and all he's done is slash .297/.355/.534 with 25 home runs in his two seasons, and now the Cardinal have an equally famous bat coming in. Malcolm Moore is the latest bat-first catcher to come out of the Central Valley, following Tyler Soderstrom and Daniel Susac, who both went on to become first round picks for the local A's. Moore has a chance to play right away, as last year's starting catcher Kody Huff went to the Rockies in the seventh round and the team's two returners behind the plate, Charlie Saum and Alberto Rios, combine for exactly two career hits. He can really swing it, showing off above average power from a very strong 6'2" frame. He's very fluid in the box for a big guy, working from a coiled load and a rotational left handed swing to put plenty of loft on the ball. Not just a slugger, Moore has a strong track record against high end pitching and is plenty advanced enough to handle Pac-12 pitching right away. There is a lot of pre-pitch movement before he gets the barrel going towards the zone, but it's nothing terribly concerning. Meanwhile, I imagine Stanford will give him the opportunity to play behind the plate, but he ultimately looks like a first baseman long term with stiff actions and a fringy arm. Still, there is plenty enough bat to play. With a July 31st birthday, the Sacramento native beats the cutoff by one day and will be draft-eligible again as a sophomore in 2024, like Susac at Arizona.

4. SS Jalin Flores, Texas. My 2022 draft rank: #82.
Texas' last shortstop, Trey Faltine, was a very highly regarded prospect when he hit campus, and they'll get to replace him with another one now that he's off to the Reds as a seventh rounder. While Faltine was primarily known for his defense and athleticism, Jalin Flores is more of a bat-first type that may not stick at shortstop. He'll have that opportunity at Texas with Faltine gone, but long term into pro ball, it's probably 50/50 whether he ends up there or at third base with more arm than range. He has a big league body to grow into, with a very projectable 6'2" frame with plenty of room to fill out. The San Antonio product has a chance to grow into above average power as he fills out, with a leveraged right handed swing that will be conducive to tapping that power in games. He also shows the ability to go to all fields with an average hit tool, so all the building blocks are there to become a middle of the order force in Austin. Born on the exact same day as Malcolm Moore, he'll also be draft-eligible again in 2024 and may not be wearing orange for long, but with a couple years of performance in the Big 12 he could hit his way into the top fifty picks, perhaps even the first round if he shows he can stick at shortstop.

5. SS Gavin Kilen, Louisville. My 2022 draft rank: #85.
The ACC's top incoming position player prospect, Gavin Kilen has a chance to be a big problem at Louisville. I see a number of parallels between his game and that of first overall pick Jackson Holliday before his breakout, and Kilen could be just a little bit of physical development away from becoming a star. He is extremely polished in the box and makes a ton of all-fields contact from the left side, looking right at home against premium pitching. The power may take some time to come, as he's skinny at 5'11" and presently lacks much impact. His stock actually took a bit of a hit this spring, when he hit too many ground balls and and soft liners for scouts' liking even if he was making very consistent contact. If he can put on a little bit of strength and just get to fringe-average power, the offensive profile suddenly becomes very, very attractive. Even at present, his IQ in the box should help him slot into the Louisville lineup right away, though Louisville does return both its star middle infielders in shortstop Christian Knapczyk and second baseman Logan Beard and Kilen may have to pay his dues in the outfield to start things out. Once he does get a shot at the infield, he could follow Knapczyk at shortstop with very fluid actions around the dirt and enough arm strength to make it work. His arm may push him to second base in the long run, but it's an attractive defensive profile regardless. He'll fit very well into a Louisville lineup filled with high-OBP types.

6. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian. My 2022 draft rank: #89*.
Anthony Silva removed his name shortly before the draft, so he technically did not rank on my final list and the #89 ranking represents where he would have landed had he taken part. A premium athlete that had many teams interested on day one of the draft, he had a poor showing at the MLB Draft Combine in June and saw his stock tumble a bit, so he'll head to TCU to put that event behind him. At his best, Silva shows off a very intriguing bat from the right side, with plenty of loft and bat speed for now and a very projectable 6'2" frame promising more power as he fills out. He also makes plenty of contact for now, but does need to find more consistency with the Horned Frogs to fully tap his offensive potential. The San Antonio native is more advanced as a shortstop right now, with turning in some plus-plus run times that give him great range in addition to a plus arm. At his best, he looks like a premium defender there whose glove can buy his bat plenty of time. The Combine performance told many evaluators that Silva may not be the premium athlete they thought he was, and many of his tools lost a half grade or more, so the first order of business in Fort Worth will be to get back to his peak physically. If he can do that while adding strength and impact at the plate, he has the makings of a very early draft pick. He'll want to do so quickly, because he'll be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2024.

7. SS Cameron Smith, Florida State. My 2022 draft rank: #90.
Cam Smith had some helium this spring when he got off to a hot start, though a strong commitment to Florida State combined with concerns over his age got him to Tallahassee. He's the age of a college sophomore as he steps on campus for the first time and will be draft-eligible again in 2024, so the FSU coaching staff will expect him to adjust fairly quickly. Smith has a very clean swing from the right side and made a ton of contact against strong competition in South Florida this spring, with an advanced approach and strong feel for the barrel. He packs solid power into his strong 6'3" frame, with the chance to get to above average as he gets stronger and more explosive. Jordan Carrion is retuning to Tallahassee this spring after serving as the starting shortstop a year ago, so I don't expect Smith to slot in at the premium position right away, but he will have a chance to take over if Carrion goes pro after next season. Smith is smooth and sure-handed on the infield, but he may not have the range to play shortstop long term and probably fits better at third base. Florida State was really starved for offense last year, so they'll welcome any spark with open arms and Smith has a very good chance to provide that right away.

8. OF Paxton Kling, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #93*
Like Anthony Silva, Paxton Kling removed his name from the draft and wasn't on my final rankings, but would have ranked #93 if he took part. LSU has put together a loaded roster for 2023, including returning Dylan Crews, Gavin Dugas, Brayden Jobert, Josh Pearson, and Josh Stevenson all in the outfield, so it will be very difficult for Kling to find playing time in the short run. Given that he already turned 19 back in May and will be draft eligible again as a sophomore, he will want to find those at bats quickly to build his stock for 2024. The good news is that he is every bit talented enough to break through that crowded outfield picture and do so. He takes huge hacks from the right side that generate above average power, and he could grow into plus power as he fills out his 6'2" frame. Kling also shows good pitch recognition skills and solid barrel adjustability for a power hitter, giving him a shot at an above average hit tool in a best case scenario. It's important to note that he spent his high school career facing much younger competition, though, and once that script flips in college, SEC arms could find holes in a swing that tends to get long when he's looking for power. How the central Pennsylvania native adjusts to that new dynamic will determine how quickly he can force his way into Jay Johnson's lineup, but he has every opportunity to become an impact hitter for the Tigers if he does adjust well. His defense will help, as he is an above average runner with a strong arm that can fit very well at any outfield position and provide value. LSU will feature a ferocious lineup this year, and the fact that a bat like Kling's may not get regular playing time is just further proof of that.

9. C Brady Neal, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #97.
Speaking of LSU's loaded lineup, Paxton Kling isn't the only big name hitter reaching campus. Fortunately for Brady Neal, his path to playing time won't be quite as crowded as last year's starting catcher, Tyler McManus, graduated, leaving last year's primary backup, Hayden Travinski, and incoming freshman Jared Jones as Neal's main competition. Additionally, Neal will have a little less pressure on him to get at bats right away, as he's nearly a year and a half younger than Kling after reclassifying into the class of 2022 and is still just 17 years old. Despite his youth, he is extremely advanced and should adjust to SEC pitching well, taking very professional at bats with sound pitch recognition skills. We're still working on the pure bat to ball skills, but that should come in time as he continues to select good pitches to hit. Despite standing just 5'10", he's also starting to show more power in games and could get to average in that regard from a clean, leveraged left handed swing. Meanwhile, the Tampa-area product caught plenty of high-octane arms during his time at IMG Academy, so when Christian Little and Paul Skenes come out pumping upper 90's, he'll be ready. He stands out for his athleticism behind the plate more than his pure glovework, but again, he's very young and that should catch up in time. A strong arm rounds out what is a very, very well rounded profile, and even if Travinski or Jones wins the starting job in 2023, Neal should eventually claim it as his own and will be draft eligible again well before his 21st birthday in 2025.

10. 3B Estevan Moreno, Notre Dame. My 2022 draft rank: #98.
Estevan Moreno is a personal favorite of mine, and as far as I know you won't find him in the top one hundred on any other draft lists. While he's not the most famous name set to reach campus this spring, I think he could change that very quickly in South Bend. Moreno is coming off a strong spring where he pushed himself up draft boards, showing off a strong combination of power and polish. He generates a ton of torque in his strong right handed swing, with big pull side power that he can tap in games. Meanwhile, he employs an effective all-fields approach and is more than willing to go to right field, but he does tap his power better to the pull side. At Notre Dame, he'll have an opportunity to refine that approach and better spread his power out to all fields, and if he does so without sacrificing contact he could surprise some people as one of the better hitters in the ACC. The Chicago-area product is an unremarkable defender at third base, but may get the opportunity to play there after 2022 starter Jack Brannigan was the only position player drafted off the team. Even if he has to move to left field, I'm a believer in Moreno's bat and I think he could be a very interesting sleeper in the ACC.

11. SS Gavin Guidry, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #109.
LSU isn't done yet after outfielder Paxton Kling and catcher Brady Neal, because 2022 Louisiana Gatorade Player of the Year Gavin Guidry will stay home and join the Pennsylvanian and Floridian in Baton Rouge. And with third baseman Jacob Berry gone to the Marlins, second baseman Cade Doughty now with the Blue Jays, and incoming transfer and shortstop Carter Young unexpectedly signing with the Orioles in the seventeenth round, Guidry has a chance to jump right in and play right from the get go. His positional versatility helps as well, as perhaps his best asset is his athleticism that allows him to profile virtually anywhere. He's an above average runner that moves very well on the defensive side of the ball, showing the hands and arm strength to stick at shortstop or the speed to play center field. Jordan Thompson probably won't give up the shortstop position so easily, but he could easily replace Berry at third base or Doughty at second base and be a defensive upgrade over either of them. At the plate, Guidry again shows a balanced skill set with a patient approach at the plate and strong hand eye coordination to execute when he does get his pitch. He's still growing into his 6'2" frame but could eventually tap above average power if things break right, making for a profile with few holes. The Lake Charles native is already 19 and will be eligible again in 2024, so he has two years to make his impact in Baton Rouge unless he spurns the draft again.

12. C Ike Irish, Auburn. My 2022 draft rank: #123.
Auburn won't be hurting for catching depth next year, bringing back starter Nate LaRue and backup/utility man Ryan Dyal in addition to landing JuCo transfer Carter Wright from Iowa Western. That will make Ike Irish's quest for immediate playing time somewhat difficult, but nobody from that group is a particularly imposing hitter and I don't think head coach Butch Thompson would mind getting a little more production out of that spot in the lineup. Irish is a bit raw, which may make a gradual transfer of power more likely than jumping into the every day role right away, but there is big time upside here. He stands out for above average raw power from the left side, with a big swing that gets long and uphill through the zone. He loves to get his arms extended and drive the ball in the air, which will be very conducive to big home run totals at Auburn. The hit tool is more raw here, as he struggles to recognize quality breaking balls and showed more swing and miss this past spring than expected, so transitioning to SEC pitching may take a little time. The Auburn coaching staff will hope to help him make the necessary adjustments there sooner rather than later, but all that depth they have behind the plate takes some pressure off. The Michigan native stands out for his plus-plus ram behind the plate that will really limit the running game, with solid athleticism that will keep him behind the plate. He's more strong than quick twitch and will need to refine his glovework a little bit, but that's nothing out of the ordinary for an incoming freshman catcher.

Honorable Mentions
#126 OF Jayson Jones, Arkansas
#128 OF Jeric Curtis, Texas Tech
#132 OF Peyton Brennan, UCLA
#133 OF Mason Neville, Arkansas
#135 OF Max Belyeu, Texas
#148 1B Jayden Hylton, Stetson
#149 SS Drew Faurot, Central Florida
#155 C Beau Sylvester, Oklahoma State
#156 C Adonys Guzman, Boston College
#159* SS RJ Austin, Vanderbilt

Thursday, September 1, 2022

2022 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

I really like what the Diamondbacks did at the top of the draft, bringing in who I believe to be the best player in the class followed by the pitcher with the best combination of stuff and command in the class, followed by the best hitter in college baseball. However, the draft quickly got odd, as they wound up with four unsigned high schoolers on day three despite coming in about $350,000 below their bonus pool and $1.1 million below the 5% overage allowance. So the fact that they couldn't sign Malachi Witherspoon, Aiva Arquette, Gavin Turley, or Riley Kelly comes down to some combination of cheaping out on the single most cost-effective way to add talent and underestimating the bonus demands of those four. They never expected to sign all four, but I have to imagine they hoped to come away with at least one, and either ownership closed the purse or all four wanted more than the roughly $475,000 they could spend without going over the pool. Still, I'm sure they could have gotten at least one if not two deals done if they had used that 5% overage. Just odd. Among the guys they did sign, I already mentioned that I loved the first couple of picks, and I also think Nogales star Demetrio Crisantes is a very interesting sleeper.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-2: OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA]. My rank: #1.
Slot value: $8.19 million. Signing bonus: $8.19 million.
Druw Jones, in my opinion, is the single best player in this class. That makes getting him at the second pick a steal in my book, especially given the Diamondbacks' success with other prep bats like Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and Jordan Lawlar. Druw Jones looks like a potential superstar, and I don't say that lightly – not every draft produces one. The son of former five time All Star and hopefully soon-to-be Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw is just oozing with potential. He's built exactly like you draw them up, with a long, rangy, 6'4" frame with plenty of present strength and room to add considerably more. Not only that, but he's extremely athletic as well, registering plus-plus run times and simply moving gracefully around the field and in the box. That huge speed helps make him an exceptional defender in center field, where he also shows the excellent instincts you'd expect as the sone of arguably the greatest defensive outfielder of all time. Throw in a plus arm and you have a potential perennial Gold Glover out there. At the plate, Jones is equally impressive. He holds his hands high but gets on plane with the pitch early, staying through the zone to produce plus power to all fields. His approach is presently geared towards pulling the ball to left field, but he shows exceptional plate coverage and can still do so on the outer half of the plate. When he does go the other way, he still has plenty of pop in his bat to send the ball out over the right field fence as well. As the Atlanta-area native gets stronger and more mature, he'll have all the tools and natural ability ready to work from. To top it off, there isn't much swing and miss in his game at present and he really hasn't been challenged even facing the premium pitchers in his class. All together, it's a pretty maxed out profile with very, very little to nitpick and lots to dream on. Of course there is still plenty of development to be done given that he's only 18, but compared to his peers, he's ahead of them all. I see a perennial All Star in this profile. Unfortunately, just like Corbin Carroll and Jordan Lawlar before him, he injured his shoulder almost immediately after signing and will miss the season, but I can't wait to see him back on the field in 2023.

CBA-34: RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State. My rank: #23.
Slot value: $2.26 million. Signing bonus: $2.35 million ($88,750 above slot value).
Landon Sims has one of the most fun profiles in the draft, and the Diamondbacks are thrilled to get what they (and I) believe is a first round talent for only a small over slot bonus in the competitive balance round. Sims was a well known draft prospect out of high school, but made it to campus at Mississippi State and rocketed to fame as the closer on their 2021 National Championship team, where he posted a 1.44 ERA and a 100/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings. Converting to a starter in 2022, he was dominant once again to start out but was pulled from his third start in the midst of striking out ten of the first eleven batters he faced. Unfortunately, Sims ended up needing Tommy John surgery, so he finished the year with a 1.15 ERA and a 27/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings as a starter. So what do we have here? The Atlanta-area native has one of the best two-pitch mixes college baseball has seen in recent memory between his fastball and his slider. Sims' fastball sits in the mid 90's and gets up to 98, but plays above its velocity with tremendous riding life. You can throw a straight 96 or you can throw 96 that looks like it's exploding out of your hand, and this fastball is certainly the latter. Next we have an equally devastating slider, another plus-plus pitch with late, hard bite that left virtually the entire SEC helpless last year. Those two pitches helped him rack up a 46.9% strikeout rate as a sophomore (for reference, only Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Craig Kimbrel [twice], and Edwin Diaz [if he keeps this pace] have ever bested that mark in a single season, min. 50 IP). In anticipation of moving to the rotation this spring, he added a changeup over the offseason and it looked like a potential above average pitch in workouts. It seems like he was waiting for SEC play to break it out so we didn't get to see it much in game play, but it would give him that third pitch necessary to start. Most hard throwing college relievers have command problems, but Sims is actually above average in that regard and pounds the strike zone, going right after hitters consistently and working ahead in the count often. That is a huge piece in projecting him as a starter, and he walked just two batters in those 15.2 innings as a starter this spring. To top it all off, the sturdy, 6'2" righty is an absolute fire breathing bulldog on the mound that lives for the bright lights and high pressure situations. Between the stuff, command, size, and competitiveness, he's a pretty complete package that brings everything except a track record as a starter. Once healthy, I'm again excited to see where this goes.

2-43: 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas. My rank: #63.
Slot value: $1.82 million. Signing bonus: $1.4 million ($418,500 below slot value).
In Ivan Melendez, the Diamondbacks got arguably the single best *right now* hitter in amateur baseball. A semi-hometown pick from El Paso, which is actually closer to Chase Field in Phoenix than it is to any other MLB stadium, the Hispanic Titanic began his college career at Odessa JC and transferred to Texas in 2021, where he earned significant day two draft interest but ultimately wound up returning to school to cut his strikeout rate. That move paid off in a big way, as he looked like a man amongst boys this spring with 32 home runs, a .387/.508/.863 slash line, and a 51/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. Melendez produces mammoth exit velocities with a lightning quick right handed swing and 225 pounds of brute strength packed into his 6'3" frame, helping him lead all of Division I baseball in home runs by three over second place Luke Franzoni of Xavier (Angels, 19th round). He lofts the ball extremely well with a steep uppercut, helping all of his plus-plus raw power play in games and it will continue to do so. Last year, that uppercut led to a 26.1% strikeout rate that scared teams off, but he dropped it to 16.2% this spring and now may have a fringe-average hit tool. He's recognizing pitches better and getting his barrel there more efficiently, though opposing pitchers may still be able to find holes in his swing in pro ball. Melendez will always have to deal with strikeouts, so the key will be patching up as many holes as he can, accepting the strikeouts that do come, and just doing immense damage when he does make contact. Based off of what he did in 2022, that contact should come much more often now. A year ago, he served as Texas' DH, but he took over as the every day first baseman this spring and showed well. An average or above average first baseman still does not provide much defensive value, but it's something and he should have plenty of bat to profile there regardless. Worst case scenario, he should be a power hitting bench bat and could move quickly if his approach translates to pro pitching. So far, he's slashing .206/.365/.353 with two home runs and a 20/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

3-82: LHP Nate Savino, Virginia. My rank: #117.
Slot value: $782,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($82,400 below slot value).
Nate Savino is a really, really hard one to pin down. A potential first round pick out of high school in 2020, he reclassified and came to Virginia a year early and immediately slotted into the rotation when the season began shortly after his 18th birthday. In 2021, he looked more good than great and the prospect shine wore off a little, and then while he showed flashes of bigger things to come in 2022, he just as often looked ordinary out there. The final numbers this spring came out to a 3.69 ERA and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, highlighted by a complete game shutout against Duke and on the opposite end, three straight starts against Georgia Tech, Miami, and Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs apiece (not all earned). Savino was up to 96 with his fastball as a high schooler and showed flashes of that velocity this spring, but also sat closer to 90 at times with average life from a wide slot. He flashes an above average slider and a solid changeup from that slot, coming across the plate with east-west action, but those pitches are inconsistent as well and can flatten out. They were on more often than not this spring and he bumped his strikeout rate from a very low 14.3% as a sophomore to a decent 23.1% as a junior, which is progress for sure. Additionally, the 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and repeats his delivery well, leading to solid average command, and it could potentially improve to above average in the Arizona development system. The Diamondbacks are really buying the youth here, as Savino doesn't turn 21 until January and most kids his age would be heading back to campus for their draft year right now, ready to build on their profile. The Northern Virginia native showed just how talented he was back in high school and glimpses of that talent are shining through more and more often now, even if he hasn't quite put it all together like the coaching staff in Charlottesville hoped. To me it looks like a #4 starter profile with some upside.

4-108: RHP Dylan Ray, Alabama. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $565,800. Signing bonus: $565,800.
When the draft was moved back from June to July, it allowed players to get in extra reps in the Cape Cod League and created a new definition for "late riser." Dylan Ray falls into this group, with his helium coming so late in the game that he went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 250 and Baseball America's top 500, while coming in at #259 on Prospects Live, but signed for full slot value at #108. Ray got hurt and didn't pitch as a freshman, then as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2022 due to an extremely early birthday, he put up a 4.60 ERA and a 49/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings out of the Alabama bullpen. It was very solid if unspectacular, but he went to the Cape and promptly put up a 1.63 ERA and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over eleven innings, opening eyes. Ray sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 98, coming in with plenty of riding life from an over the top delivery. He spins a pretty nasty curveball with depth and a harder slider when he locates them, but he struggles to command those breaking balls and often leaves them up, where they flatten out. There's a changeup in there too, but again, it's behind. The 6'3" righty has the frame and delivery to start, but needs to get much more consistent with his secondary stuff in order to do so. He's pretty young, having only turned 21 in May, and doesn't have much game experience on the mound. It's a pretty safe bet that the fastball and breaking balls would be nasty in a bullpen role, like they were on the Cape, but I have to believe that if the Diamondbacks are going to give him more than $500,000 to sign, they'll at least want to try out the Huntsville-area native in the rotation. So far in that role, he has a 6.30 ERA and a 14/3 strikeout to walk ratio over ten innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

5-138: SS Andrew Pintar, Brigham Young. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $422,600. Signing bonus: $316,950 ($105,650 below slot value).
Andrew Pintar hit .333/.433/.556 as a sophomore at BYU and entered the spring as one of the more interesting prospects in the Rocky Mountain region, but his 2022 wound up being a nightmare. He hit just .209/.329/.284 with no home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 17 games, then went down with a shoulder injury that wiped out the rest of his season. The strikeout rate ballooned from 12.8% as a sophomore to 21.5% as a junior while his walk rate dropped from 14.2% to 10.1% and he hit for zero power. If the Diamondbacks are giving him more than $300,000 to sign, it's because they believe his struggles could almost entirely be attributed to that shoulder injury and that the 2021 Andrew Pintar is the real Andrew Pintar. That version of him made a ton of contact all over the zone, spraying line drives around the field consistently while turning some into home runs when they caught enough air. The power has always been fringy, but with his wiry 6'2" frame and quick right handed bat, he does have the ability to turn on the ball and put it in the seats. Arizona will want to get the Spanish Fork, Utah native healthy again and back to feeling like himself, where they could get a high average, moderate power bat lower in the draft than you'd expect. They drafted Pintar as a shortstop, but he had fringy arm strength before the shoulder injury and almost certainly projects better at second base, where he won't be as stretched.

6-168: LHP Will Mabrey, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $317,100. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($92,100 below slot value).
On a pitching staff full of pitchers that could reach triple digits, Will Mabrey offered a literal change of pace in the Tennessee bullpen. After barely pitching as an underclassman, he became one of the Volunteers' most reliable relievers with a 2.63 ERA and a 52/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings this spring. Mabrey's stuff isn't overpowering, with a low 90's fastball that tops out around 95, an above average slider that plays well off his fastball, and a less used curveball and changeup. Not overly physical at 6', 185 pounds, the lefty hides the ball well and comes in with flat plane, making it difficult to pick up his stuff. Additionally, he commands everything with precision, making this a very unconventional profile for a college reliever, a demographic that typically throw poorly-located gas if they're going to get drafted. To succeed in pro ball, the Cookeville, Tennessee native will need to add a tick or two to his fastball, which combined with the life, deception, and command he possesses, could make it a very tough pitch to handle. If he does see his stuff tick up in pro ball, he could move quickly to the Arizona bullpen.

7-198: SS Demetrio Crisantes, Nogales HS [AZ]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $247,200. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($177,800 above slot value).
First off, what a name. Second off, Demetrio Crisantes brings the Diamondbacks a hometown player to throw into the system. He attended Nogales High School on the Mexican border, and grew up a few exits north on I-19 in Rio Rico. Crisantes had been committed to play college ball at Arizona, but the Diamondbacks were able to pull him to Phoenix rather than Tucson for a sizable over slot bonus. He wasn't on my radar prior to the draft, but now having done some research, I'm bought in. He is extremely fluid in the box with a whippy, powerful right handed swing that naturally channels his strength into useable power, with great feel for the barrel that helps him drive balls all around the park. Crisantes does need to get stronger in order to maximize that power, though at a skinny six feet tall, it's not an ultra projectable frame. Still, there is enough room in there to add a tick or two, which will go a long way given the way he moves in the box. Additionally, he is extremely disciplined at the plate and Baseball America noted that he walked 32 times to just three strikeouts this spring, showcasing not only his barrel to ball skills but his pure bat to ball skills as well. At shortstop, he's springy and fluid again with enough arm strength to stick, though he'll need to quicken his transfer and arm stroke in order to stay there as he does have a tendency to gather himself and shuffle before he throws. To top it off, Crisantes is extremely young for a high school senior and will only turn 18 a few days after I publish this article. There is a ton of ceiling here for the desert kid and the Diamondbacks do very well with this type of player.

11-318: LHP Spencer Giesting, Charlotte. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($275,000 against bonus pool).
Spencer Giesting gives the Diamondbacks a bit of an under the radar arm, though he did command a pretty hefty fifth round-caliber bonus as a draft eligible sophomore. After a solid freshman season as a swingman, he put up a 3.72 ERA and a 105/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings as a sophomore this spring to build off some moderate Cape Cod League success. Giesting sits in the low 90's with his fastball but has been up to 96, with flat plane and a ton of riding life that help it play above its velocity. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball with a hard slider and a solid curveball and mixes in a changeup as well. At 6'4" with a good body and athletic movement on the mound, as well as having just turned 21 shortly before the draft, he offers plenty of projection now in the Arizona development system. They'll want to help him add a tick or two to his fastball so that it can make the most of its riding life, but the main priority right now should be his below average command. Sticking in the rotation will likely require an improvement both in his fastball velocity and command, which is entirely possible, while a move to the bullpen will likely be in order if he can't get that done. Regardless, his fastball could sit closer to the mid 90's in shorter stints and get that extra bump to help the riding fastball really play. So far, he has a 7.45 ERA and a 9/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Visalia.

12-348: RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Flagler HS [FL]. My rank: #167.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Malachi Witherspoon won't be heading to the desert and will instead stay home to attend Jacksonville, alma mater of Daniel Murphy and Austin Hays. Witherspoon has plenty of relievery traits right now, but there is also tremendous raw ability from a kid who only turned 18 in August. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 94-95, with big spin rates that give the pitch some life. He can really rip through his curveball, again with huge spin rates and hard depth and bite that make it a potential plus pitch. Witherspoon's changeup also flashes above average at its best, giving him a really dangerous arsenal at a really young age. The 6'3" righty is a very strong kid and only projects to get stronger, making it a profile to dream on. For now, his offspeed stuff can be very inconsistent as he's still learning how to harness it effectively, and with a drop and drive delivery that features some head whack and a late arm, he comes with significant reliever risk. The definition of a boom or bust profile, I'll be very interested to see what happens at Jacksonville over the next few years.

18-528: SS Aiva Arquette, Saint Louis HS [HI]. My rank: #194.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Aiva Arquette also did not sign, so he will attend Washington to build his stock. He lacks a carrying tool to this point, which may have tampered his interest out of high school, but does a lot of things well and building up a track record in Seattle will help his profile significantly. Arquette is very projectable at 6'4" and looks like a ballplayer, portending to future added strength on top of a pretty athletic frame as it is. He makes a lot of contact from the right side and can handle pitches all over the plate, though when he tries to swing for power, his swing can get a bit rigid and lead to minor swing and miss concerns. The Washington coaching staff is going to want to help him get stronger and access his power more naturally, which would be huge for his offensive projection. For now, the Hawaiian plays shortstop and should stick there in Seattle with smooth glovework and enough range and arm strength to be playable. He's not all that explosive, though, and may fit better at third base in the long run if he slows down at all with age.

19-558: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS [AZ]. My rank: #69.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
Gavin Turley originally hails from Midway, Utah, a small town across the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City, but he moved south to Arizona around the time his brother, Noah, started play at Yavapai JC in Prescott, Arizona. While Noah eventually transferred to the University of Arizona, Gavin played his high school ball for the powerhouse Hamilton High School program in Chandler in the far southwestern Phoenix suburbs. Instead of staying to play for his new hometown team, he'll head back up north to Oregon State and hope to follow a Dylan Crews-like path to stardom. Turley is one of the best athletes in the class, with plus-plus speed that makes him a menace on the bases. Not only that, but quick hands and loose, powerful right handed swing can generate huge exit velocities for plus raw power, and he knows it. The approach at the plate is very raw right now, as he tends to sell out for power causing his swing to get too big, which combined with aggressive pitch selection is often too much for his fringy bat to ball skills to overcome. In Corvallis, Turley will need to learn to trust his incredible raw ability and let the home runs come naturally, in which case he could easily emerge a first round pick in 2025. He's raw on the defensive side as well, with fringy instincts leading to a potential career in right field despite his blazing speed. Throw in a plus arm, and he'll fit in very well there.

20-588: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS [CA]. My rank: #88.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
The Diamondbacks closed out the draft with one more name that didn't sign, as Riley Kelly will instead stay home in Orange County and head to UC Irvine. Kelly was a pop up name this spring when his stuff ticked up, and it will likely continue to improve in Irvine. His fastball sits around 90, topping out around 94 with some ride, and more velocity is coming. His potentially plus-plus curveball is by far his best pitch, with massive depth and bite that can be sharpened if he wants something tighter. Lastly, his changeup is a bit behind. The 6'4" righty is very projectable with plenty of room to fill out, and the UC Irvine coaching staff will have the opportunity to smooth out his mechanics as well to help him better channel his strength. He'll need to add more power to his arsenal and bring that changeup along if he wants to start, and his command could use a little tuneup as well. There is a lot to work on, but I like his chances to get it done.

Sunday, May 15, 2022

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL West Team

If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. None of the AL/NL West ones came true, not that I expected them to, but some did in other divisions. So, thinking about our friends making up the AL and NL West divisions, if each of them were to take a shot on a hometown kid, who might that be? Let's go team by team.
AL/NL Central
AL/NL East

Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Gavin Turley, Hamilton HS, Chandler, AZ
Hometown: Midway, Utah. My rank: #46.
I'm not sure exactly how this situation played out, but it looks like Gavin Turley grew up in Midway, Utah, just over the Wasatch Range from Salt Lake City. His brother Noah went on to play college baseball at the University of Arizona, and and it looks like Gavin followed him there to finish his high school career at regional powerhouse Hamilton High School in Chandler, a southern suburb of Phoenix. Anyways, the Diamondbacks usually prefer to go hit over power with their prep bats, as evidenced by names like Jordan Lawlar (2021), Corbin Carroll (2019), Alek Thomas (2018), and Matt McLain (2018), but they did briefly break that trend with A.J. Vukovich in 2020. Gavin Turley is a supreme athlete that has shown some of the best raw tools in the class, showing plus in a smatter of different areas. He's a right handed hitter with an extremely loose, busy operation at the plate, unleashing powerful swings that produce big time exit velocities. His hit tool has been less consistent and the barrel accuracy is not always there, but he has had stretches where he gets hot and looks like a surefire first round pick. Turley has also turned in some plus-plus run times and shows big arm strength, giving him huge upside in the field just like at the plate, though he does need refinement out there and may end up in right field rather than center. Arizona would need to show some patience in developing him, but the payoff could be huge in a five tool player that can significantly impact the game in multiple areas. Turley may come into play with Arizona's CBA pick at #34 or their second round pick at #43 if they're feeling aggressive, but by the time they pick again at #82, it might be prohibitively expensive to sign him away from an Oregon State commitment should he still be on the board.
Other options: C Daniel Susac (Arizona via Roseville, CA), 3B Jacob Berry (Louisiana State via Queen Creek, AZ), OF Justin Crawford (Bishop Gorman HS, Las Vegas, NV), OF Mason Neville (Basic HS, Henderson, NV), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

Colorado Rockies: RHP Riley Cornelio, Texas Christian
Hometown: Monument, Colorado. My rank: unranked.
There is some real talent from the Front Range in the big leagues today, mostly on the mound in Kevin Gausman (Centennial), Marco Gonzales (Fort Collins), Kyle Freeland (Denver), Mark Melancon (Golden), and the Rogers twins (Littleton). The region's top two prospects this spring, at least that I am aware of, are both pitchers as well, though both headed to Texas for college as neither Colorado, Colorado State, Denver, nor Wyoming offer baseball. While Andrew Morris has taken over as the Friday night starter at Texas Tech, Riley Cornelio is seeing his first ever consistent innings at TCU after combining for just 17.2 between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Cornelio was a highly touted recruit out of Pine Creek High School on the far north side of Colorado Springs, earning some draft buzz but ultimately fulfilling his commitment to the Horned Frogs. He was off to a strong start in 2022 with a 2.87 ERA through mid-April, but has been a bit more human lately and now sits at 4.28. The 6'3" righty has explosive stuff in a fastball that's been up to 97, a sharp breaking ball, and a decent changeup, and his command has improved considerably during his time in Fort Worth as he's toned down his high effort delivery. There are more starter traits here than there were out of high school, though he's old for a junior and will turn 22 before the draft. If the Rockies wanted to throw him back in the bullpen, the stuff could play up and they wouldn't have to worry as much about his still-inconsistent command. He fits in the fourth to sixth round range and could be an under slot candidate given his age.
Other options: RHP Andrew Morris (Texas Tech via Boulder, CO), OF Gavin Turley (Hamilton HS, AZ via Midway, UT), SS Andrew Pintar (Brigham Young via Spanish Fork, UT), 3B Skyler Messinger (Texas via Niwot, CO), OF Justin Boyd (Oregon State via Parker, CO)

Houston Astros: RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech
Hometown: Willis, TX. My rank: #99.
Usually, the Houston area is teeming with talent, both in the prep ranks and in players that left for school. A few years ago, the Cypress Ranch High School varsity team had four players that would go on to be top fifty picks – JJ Goss (Rays), Matthew Thompson (White Sox), Colton Cowser (Orioles), and Ty Madden (Tigers). That's not so much the case this year, with most of the talent in the state hailing from DFW, San Antonio, and even the Permian Basin. One name from Southeast Texas has taken a step forward this year, though, and that is Brandon Birdsell. A native of Willis, which is about 45 minutes north of downtown Houston on I-45 just past Conroe, Birdsell has been all over the state. He spent his freshman season pitching sparingly at Texas A&M, then transferred to San Jacinto JC in Houston where his stock exploded. However, he went unselected in the five round draft in 2020 and moved on to Texas Tech, where he continued to receive draft buzz before shoulder problems ended his season prematurely. Healthy in 2022, he's pitching as well as ever and has worked his way back into discussion in the top couple of rounds. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and regularly tops out in the upper 90's, coming from a short arm action that hides the ball well and helps him command it. His power slider flashes plus in the mid to upper 80's, and he also flips in an occasional curveball and changeup as well. It's a full starter's arsenal, and the Astros develop pitching at a high level. He turned 22 in March and is on the older side, but that should hardly be a problem given how he's thrown when healthy. As of now, the Astros' first shot at him will probably be with their third round pick at #103, but if he continues to throw well into the postseason, he may not be available there.
Other options: SS Gavin Guidry (Barbe HS, Lake Charles, LA), SS Trey Faltine (Texas via Richmond, TX), RHP Cole Phillips (Boerne HS, TX), OF Jared McKenzie (Baylor via Round Rock, TX), C Silas Ardoin (Texas via Moss Bluff, LA)

Los Angeles Angels: RHP Riley Kelly, Tustin HS, CA
Hometown: Santa Ana, CA. My rank: #61.
The Angels' first love is college arms, but Orange County is a bit light on those this year. Instead, we'll go with a local pop up prospect in Riley Kelly, who has had a very loud spring for Tustin High School a few miles down I-5 from Angel Stadium. A projectable 6'4" righty, his fastball has crept up to around 90 and touched 94 this spring, with more in the tank for sure. His bread and butter, though, is his hammer curveball, which posts huge spin rates and ridiculous vertical drop. Many high schoolers that are lucky enough to possess electric breaking balls struggle to command them, but Kelly has shown good feel to spot it. There is a lot of work to be done for the tall righty, who currently comes from a high, short release point with mediocre extension, but if the Angels believe in their pitching development, they might be able to unlock a lot by tweaking his mechanics. Very few kids can spin the ball like Kelly can and it's hard to teach something like that, so if he's still in play when the Angels pick at #89, it could be an over slot opportunity. He's committed to UC Irvine, so he may stay in Orange County anyways.
Other options: SS Mikey Romero (Orange Lutheran HS via Menifee, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA), SS Jordan Sprinkle (UC Santa Barbara via Palm Springs, CA), RHP Max Rajcic (UCLA via Fullerton, CA), SS D'Andre Smith (USC via Diamond Bar, CA)

Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Kassius Thomas, Sierra Canyon HS, Chatsworth, CA
Hometown: Northridge, CA. My rank: #103.
Sierra Canyon High School in the San Fernando Valley has not one but two pitchers in its rotation that could go in the top couple of rounds this spring in Jaden Noot and Kassius Thomas. We'll give the Dodgers a shot at Thomas, who has impressed evaluators with a strong spring and is looking at roughly a third round selection, where Los Angeles holds the 105th overall pick. He would likely require an above slot bonus to sign away from a Duke commitment there, but the Dodgers likely would not pull the trigger with their first pick at #40. Thomas is a 6'1" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball that has regularly topped out around 95 this spring, flashing a plus slider as well as a curveball and changeup that really round out his arsenal nicely. He has feel for all four pitches, with a quick arm that portends further velocity gains as he gets stronger. The Northridge native can battle his mechanics at times, losing the strike zone and occasionally getting around his breaking stuff, but the Dodgers develop pitching extremely well and I expect that wouldn't be an issue for their staff. There's some real upside here as a mid-rotation starter, especially if a team like the Dodgers gets their hands on him.
Other options: RHP Jaden Noot (Sierra Canyon HS, CA), RHP Luis Ramirez (Long Beach State via East Los Angeles, CA), RHP Marcus Johnson (Duke via Fontana, CA), RHP/UT Austin Charles (Stockdale HS, Bakersfield, CA), 3B Jacob Reimer (Yucaipa HS, CA)

Oakland Athletics: OF Dylan Beavers, California
Hometown: Paso Robles, CA. My rank: #17.
Dylan Beavers grew up in Paso Robles and attended high school just south of there at Mission College Prep in San Luis Obispo, then turned around and headed north to the East Bay for college. He fits in with recent A's picks like Denzel Clarke, Max Muncy, and Logan Davidson as a strong athlete with a track record of performance. Beavers has consistently tapped above average raw power in from the left side in games with a smooth, loose swing, also showing more patience this spring and getting good pitches to hit. There is some swing and miss in his game due to his lanky, 6'4" frame and some inconsistencies in his swing mechanics, but youth is on his side as he won't turn 21 until August and has that much extra time to develop. A good athlete with a strong arm, he has a chance to stick in center field and become a true five tool player. There is a ton of upside here, especially for a college bat, and his overall game is pretty similar to James Madison's Chase DeLauter. Both are young for the class, tall left handed hitters with unorthodox swing mechanics but big power, and good runners that could be well above average defenders in right field. The main difference, though, is that DeLauter hit .298/.397/.589 in the Cape Cod League while Beavers managed just a .233/.286/.300 line. The A's pick at #19 this year and that's the perfect spot to swipe up the Cal product.
Other options: OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA), C Malcolm Moore (McClatchy HS, Sacramento, CA), LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Joe Lampe (Arizona State via Petaluma, CA)

San Diego Padres: RHP Tyler Bremner, Scripps Ranch HS, San Diego, CA
Hometown: San Diego, CA. My rank: #140.
The Padres love prep talent, especially prep bats, but most of the talent to come out of the San Diego area in this class is on the college side. Tyler Bremner is the top prospect on the prep side coming out of Scripps Ranch High School on the north side of the city, and he could definitely make sense for the Friars around the middle of day two if they want to buy him out of a UC Santa Barbara commitment. Bremner is an athletic 6'1" right hander that stands out more for projection than the present product. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, topping out around 94, adding a curveball and a changeup. The fastball is his best pitch, as he gets good extension down the mound and the pitch can really jump on hitters. As he adds velocity, it could become a plus pitch in time. His curveball is a bit behind, with slurvy action and not much present bite, while his changeup is an average pitch. The Padres would be buying Bremner's athleticism, which helps him stay extremely loose in his delivery and throw strikes. They'll hope that they can work with the considerable raw talent to sharpen those offspeed pitches and turn him into an impact starting pitcher.
Other options: OF Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt via Encinitas, CA), LHP Brycen Mautz (San Diego via San Diego, CA), OF Anthony Hall (Oregon via San Diego, CA), RHP Derek Diamond (Mississippi via Ramona, CA), RHP Troy Melton (San Diego State via Anaheim, CA)

San Francisco Giants: OF Henry Bolte, Palo Alto HS, CA
Hometown: Palo Alto, CA. My rank: #42.
The Giants already have a proud Palo Alto High School alum on their roster in Joc Pederson, and they could add another in Henry Bolte, a favorite of West Coast scouts (or Oregon SS Josh Kasevich, who figures to go in the second or third round). Bolte has been a slow and steady riser in this class, showing off a wide variety of impact tools that have teams interested as early as the back of the first round. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Texas commitment, but if the Giants want to keep him home, pick #30 seems early enough that it shouldn't require too big of an over slot bonus. He's a big kid at 6'3", showing off plus power when he turns on one but also the ability to go the other way with authority. He's still learning how to apply it as a full package and put loft under his hits, but he's improving and should continue to do so in a player development system as strong as the Giants'. Bolte is also a plus runner that might have a chance to stick in center field if he doesn't slow down as he fills out. There's real upside here as an impact hitter that could hit 20+ home runs a year and steal a few bases while playing good defense.
Other options: LHP Cooper Hjerpe (Oregon State via Capay, CA), OF Brock Jones (Stanford via Fresno, CA), SS Josh Kasevich (Oregon via Palo Alto, CA), OF Dylan Beavers (California via Paso Robles, CA), OF Payton Brennan (Rocklin HS, CA)

Seattle Mariners: RHP JR Ritchie, Bainbridge Island HS, WA
Hometown: Bainbridge Island, WA. My rank: #37.
JR Ritchie probably fits somewhere between the Mariners' first two picks (#21 and #58), but high school pitchers can be very unpredictable and it wouldn't surprise me to see Seattle jump on him early or catch him in the second round and give him a big over slot bonus. They've tended towards college pitchers lately and Gonzaga's Gabriel Hughes or Trystan Vrieling could be also be options in the first and second/third rounds, respectively. But Ritchie might be too good to pass up, especially if he's available in the second round and they have pool space to pay him a multi-million dollar bonus to cross the Puget Sound from Bainbridge Island. The 6'2" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to around 97, getting some hop on the pitch as well. His best pitch is a plus slider that has been recalled by many of the top prep bats in the class as one of the best breaking balls they'd seen on the showcase circuit, and he also adds a curveball and a changeup that he can locate. Ritchie is ultra athletic and gets down the mound well, with the command to make everything play up. He's also a very smart kid that understands the art of pitching and knows what he needs to do to get better, so he could develop quickly. The one drawback to his profile is his age, as he turns 19 in June, but he also brings the maturity and baseball IQ that comes with an older prospect. He is committed to UCLA and will be eligible as a sophomore in 2024 if he goes that route.
Other options: RHP Gabriel Hughes (Gonzaga via Eagle, ID), RHP Trystan Vrieling (Gonzaga via Kennewick, WA), SS Carter Young (Vanderbilt via Selah, WA), RHP Jackson Cox (Toutle Lake HS, Toutle, WA), OF Jacob Melton (Oregon State via Medford, OR)

Texas Rangers: 3B Jayson Jones, Braswell HS, Little Elm, TX
Hometown: Savannah, TX. My rank: #78.
The Rangers do not pick between #3 and #109, which made this a difficult exercise by ruling out two players I think they would love in Jett Williams (Rockwall-Heath HS) and Peyton Graham (Waxahachie native at Oklahoma). We will go with Jayson Jones, who attends Braswell High School up on US 380 in Little Elm, the far northern tip of the rapidly expanding Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. He's not quite as neat a fit as Williams or Graham because Texas does prefer athleticism and positional flexibility, but they like big power as well and Jones has plenty of it. In fact, the 6'2" slugger generates as much torque as any high schooler in recent memory, with ridiculous strength and bat speed that could blow an old baseball to pieces if the seams were coming loose. That alone makes him an extremely intriguing prospect, though the rest of his offensive game has regressed a little bit. Earlier in his high school career, he showed a relatively balanced approach at the plate and performed well against high end pitching, but starting this past summer he got too power conscious and began pulling off balls and has never quite recovered that approach. Because of that, I'm not convinced he'll ever be able to handle pro pitching and get to his power. The Rangers would be taking a big risk on the Arkansas commit, but you simply cannot develop the kind of raw power he possesses and they could try to work out the rest. They took a similar chance on a falling prep bat last year in Ian Moller and Jones comes into play in the third round for them. On the defensive side, Jones actually moves well for his size and should be able to stick at third base, where his cannon arm would be an asset.
Other options: 2B Jace Jung (Texas Tech via San Antonio, TX), RHP Jacob Meador (Dallas Baptist via Burleson, TX), OF Jace Grady (Dallas Baptist via Elgin, TX), RHP Chase Shores (Legacy HS, Midland, TX), OF Brenner Cox (Rock Hill HS, Prosper, TX)